Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-18-21 | Wizards +11.5 v. Jazz | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Wizards/Jazz Washington comes in under the radar here after four straight losses. Utah comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won eight of its last nine. These teams are moving in opposite directions, but I think the more desperate side will deliver ATS. This is a revenge game as well for Washington, that lost both SU and ATS at home to the Jazz earlier in the season. Note that Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 as a road dog in the +9.5 to +11.5 points range. I say this one is WAY tighter than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 10* COACHES CORNER on the Wizards. | |||||||
12-18-21 | Patriots +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 42 m | Show |
Patriots/Colts The Patriots are 7-0 in recent games. All the wins have one thing in common; their opponents just don’t score enough points to win. Patriots’ QB Mac Jones has shown remarkable poise and improvement in his first year. Off a bye and 3 pass win against the Bills, Jones’ arm will be well rested if nothing else. Lets see if he can shine against an average Colts pass defense. The Colts are on a win one-lose one pattern, but have been piling up and allowing points in a big way, mostly scoring on the back of Jonathon Taylor. Controlling Taylor will be the key for the Patriots. The Patriots have a solid run defense and Belichick has had a week and a half to come up with a plan. The Patriots do give up some rushing yards, but they are best in the league in fewest rushing points allowed. It will not be easy for Colts QB Wentz on Saturday. Wentz has been OK for the Colts and has shown some improvement lately, but he will be up against a very tough Patriots’ pass defense. Over the last three games, NE’s passing yards allowed have dropped from a seasonal average of 195 to 113 yards allowed. They are 9th in sacks, and very solid pressuring the passer. While the Colts have Taylor, the Patriots’ have a trio of good options up against the Colts’ middle of the road run defense. It is hard to bet against the Patriots, but as a slight underdog, it would not be wise. Look for them to reign in Taylor to some degree. If this happens, I don’t see Wentz picking up the slack. Patriots | |||||||
12-18-21 | Southern Utah +14.5 v. Michigan | 50-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Southern Utah/Michigan Off an upset 75-65 home loss to Minnesota as a 13.5-point favorite, and with their X-Mas Break up next before a game at UCF on December 30th, I believe the Huskies get caught looking right past their lowly non-conference opponent tonight. The Wolverines only average 72.1 PPG, which ranks 182nd. Southern Utah averages 81.6, which ranks 24th. Of course, the Thunderbirds early numbers need to be taken with a proverbial 'grain of salt' due to the level of competition it's faced, but there's no question that Southern Utah has already exceeded expectations in the Big Sky. No outright, but closer than expected. 8* PLAY on Southern Utah. | |||||||
12-17-21 | Grizzlies -5 v. Kings | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Kings The Grizz enter off a 113-103 road win at Portland. The Kings are off a 119-105 home win over the Wizards. Memphis picked up the 128-101 home win in early November over Sacramento, and I expect a similar final outcome here as well. The biggest difference comes on the defensive end. Memphis allows 109 PPG, which isn't great (ranked 19th), but Sacramento concedes 114 PPG. The Kings are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest, while the Grizz are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five on the road and 5-2 ATS in their last seven following an ATS victory. 8* PLAY-BOOK on Grizzlies. | |||||||
12-17-21 | UT-Rio Grande Valley +5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 68-50 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
UTRGV/UTSA I like the Vaqueros to keep this one close. UTRGV is 4-7, while the UTSA Roadrunners are 6-4. UTRGV is off a 70-60 loss to Texas Southern. RayQuan Taylor was a bright spot in defeat with 16 points and six boards. UTSA is 3-1 in its last four. It's off a tighter than expectd 78-73 win over Sam Houston on Saturday. The Roadrunners' strength of schedule has to be questioned somewhat. I see this one coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, so that means I'm grabbing the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Texas Rio Grande Valley. | |||||||
12-17-21 | Sabres v. Penguins -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
The Sabres/Penguins game features a very lopsided goalie match-up. M. Subban is expected to start for the Sabres tonight, and he struggled big time in his first appearance. The Sabres' weakness is on defense at the best of times. At the other end, Jarry has been formidable all season. as has the Penguins' defense. Pittsburgh is rested, while the Sabres are on the wrong end of a back to back. Th Penguins have won five straight and are consistent in beating the NHL lesser lights with authority. The Sabres are not a very successful road team. The odds aren't great with the Penguins on the puck line but it is definately the way to go today. Take the Penguins - 1 1/2 goals | |||||||
12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 49 m | Show | |
Step back to NFL week three when the Chargers knocked off the Chiefs 30-24. Fast forward to now. It is remarkable how the Chiefs became so tough to play against. It is now 4 of 5 games that the Chiefs have allowed less than NINE points. Teams have had success passing against the Chiefs, but they don’t score that often. The Chiefs have really tightened up in the red zone, and in TDs allowed. They have also become much tougher in pressuring the QB, which will be critical on Thursday While the Chargers are very good defending against the pass, they have been run on almost at will at times by opposing teams, and are 30th defending in the red zone. They have not allowed less than 20 points since week on. Mahomes and Herbert are quite similar when the stats are compared. Both are a solid run option, and can be explosive. Mahomes has been lower key, but did bounce back for a huge game in week 14. Herbert had some struggles after a strong start, but has been dominant of late. Oddly, the running game may decide this match up. The Chiefs’ no longer require Mahomes to be their only option. They have a number of viable run options, against a weak Chargers defense. The Chargers are far more reliant on Herbert as a one trick pony. Their best RB is limited this week, and the Chiefs defense has been all over the run in the last few games. The last time the Chargers faced a tough defense (Denver) they did not fare well. I don’t see the Chiefs reverting to their early season struggles on defense, and Mahomes looked pretty fired up last week. The Chiefs just have more options than the Chargers. Look for KC to control Herbert, and win the rematch. Chiefs to win and cover.. | |||||||
12-16-21 | Golden Knights -1.5 v. Devils | 5-3 | Win | 145 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights offense is back in form and scoring in bunches while winning 5 of 6. New Jersey has not been winning and can't put the puck in the net. With the 30th rated defense and an average goalie in Blackwood, the potential for many goals against is high. Knights goaltender Lehner is coming off a fine outing against the Bruins, so maybe he too is rounding into form. The Devils have some illness issues while the Knights are as healthy as they have been this season. Vegas is a big favorite, but ought to be good for a couple of goals. Take Vegas - 1 1/2 all the way to the bank. | |||||||
12-15-21 | Northern Colorado +26 v. Arizona | Top | 76-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Northern Colorado/Arizona The 6-5 Northern Colorado Bears are going to catch the 9-0 Wilcats looking past them here to their long Christmas break, before a big road conference road trip starting at UCLA on December 30th. The Bears are off a 74-69 win over South Dakota. They average 74.6 PPG, while allowing 72.8. Clearly, the last thing the visiting side can do is turn this into a faster-paced affair and expect to "hang" with the highest-scoring team in the nation. Arizona averages 90.7 PPG, while allowing 61.7. The Wildcats though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine as a non-conference home favoirte in the -23 to -27 points range. I look for the home side to take the foot off the gas in the second half. No outright, but closer than expected. Northern Colorado 10* COACHES CORNER. | |||||||
12-15-21 | Pacers +1.5 v. Bucks | 99-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Pacers/Bucks Bucks' star Giannis is sidelined with COVID issues. The Bucks are going to have to make adjustments quickly, which comes at the wrong time here facing the improved Pacers. Indiana had its four game win streak snapped in a 102-100 setback at home to the Warriors last time out. This is a revenge game for the Pacers though after falling 118-100 to Milwaukee in early November. The Bucks are off a 117-103 loss at Boston. Note that Milwaukee is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight off a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 105 points or less in. A great situational play. Outright possible, but grab the points. 8* PLAY on Pacers. | |||||||
12-14-21 | Warriors v. Knicks +4 | Top | 105-96 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Warriors/Knicks The Knicks were the talk of the NBA last season. They're struggling this year though, as they enter having lost three straight, most recently a 112-97 home loss to the Bucks (New York though is 8-2 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 99 points or less in.) Golden State is now 17-9-1 after last night's 102-100 win at Indiana. The Warriors long Eastern-Conference road swing continues with games at Boston and Toronto after this. On the heels of the second game of the B2B scenario though, I expect the Warriors to finally stumble here. The Knicks are ultra-motivated to break out of their slump and here's the perfect "measuring stick" to do that against. New York has all the motivation it needs to get off the schneid and I expect it to deliver. That said, grab the points! 10* GAME OF THE WEEK. | |||||||
12-14-21 | Senators +1.5 v. Panthers | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Don't look now but the Senators have won 4 of 5. They are finally healthy and rested. They were expected to be better this year, so it is easy to underestimate them. The Panthers have not been as dominant lately and have had some unlikely losses to low ranked teams. It wouldn't surprise me if the Senators out and out stole this one, but the odds are still favorable with the points. Take the Senators +1 1/2. | |||||||
12-14-21 | VMI +15.5 v. Wake Forest | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
VMI/Wake Forest Outright victory? I don't think so. But I do absolutely believe the 7-4 VMI Keydets will keep this one close. Wake Forest is 9-1. VMI averages 80.3 PPG and it allows 64.6. Kamdyn Curfman averages 17.6 points and 2.5 boards per game. The Demon Deacons average 81.5 PPG, while conceding 65.6. Alondes Williams averages 18.2 points and 6.6 rebounds to lead the team in each category. Wake Forest is the better overall team, but VMI has the offense to hang around. That's exactly what I'm expecting! 8* PLAY on VMI. | |||||||
12-13-21 | Wizards +5 v. Nuggets | 107-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
Wizards/Nuggets Denver returns home after a 4-3, seven-game road trip. I say the Nuggets stumble here in this first game back in friendly confines. That's often the case with professional athletes, who get a little TOO comfortable at home after an extended road trip. Two nights after falling 123-111 at San Antonio, the Nuggets bounced back with a 127-112 win on the road in the rematch. Washington is the much "hungrier" dog in this fight. it's lost three of its last four, including a 123-98 setback at home to the Jazz last time out. Washington though is 7-1 ATS in its last eight off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 99 points or less in. Both teams have plenty of injury issues to contend with, but this one has all the makings of a "nail-biter!" As such, let's grab the points. 8* PLAY on Wizards. | |||||||
12-12-21 | Magic +11 v. Lakers | 94-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Magic/Lakers LA has a nasty habit of "playing down" to the level of its competition and all signs point to that occurring here against the 5-22 Magic. Orlando has lost four in a row. It hasn't been for a lack of trying though, most recently fallling 106-104 to the Clippers. The Lakers are the slowest team in the NBA. They've been wildly inconsistent. They're off an easy win at OKC, but note that they're just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS road win in which they held their opponent to 99 or less points in. LA could even rest some starters here. No outright, but closer than expected. 8* PLAY on Magic. | |||||||
12-12-21 | Bears +11.5 v. Packers | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
The Bears rumble into their match against the Packers and it won’t be a picnic. While the Bears are trending towards healthy, or at least healthier, the Packers are still a force to be reckoned with. The Bears’ rookie QB is back from injury, but this is hardly cause for celebration. Justin Field’s numbers are not impressive. Two stats stand out; 4 Tds against 8 interceptions, and an ugly 31 sacks. No wonder his ribs hurt. On the plus side, he can run. At QB this game is a mismatch. Compare to Rodgers’ 23 Tds, vs 4 interceptions and 21 sacks. Rogers will likely control this game, using the Packers’ very average running game when he needs to. All the signs point to a big Packers win, but Rodgers’ comments no doubt stung. A win is likely out of the question for the Bears, but what do they have or need to keep this one close? 1. Run the ball successfully and slow the game down. Montgomery can be a force to be reckoned with, and Fields, if he is up to it, can also run. The Packers’ defense are tough against the run, especially lately. 2. The Bears defense is poor against the run, but solid against the pass. They can and will want to get to Rodgers today. Making his life miserable will likely be job #1. 3. Control turnovers. Fields has been a walking interception machine. Rodgers is very careful with the ball. The Bears must protected their QB today. 4. Take advantage in the red zone. One of the Bears’ successes has been their ability to finish their chances which are few enough. This will be critical today. I think the line is about right in normal circumstances, but I think the Bears will make the extra effort to stand proud and keep this game closer than expected. Take the Bears with the points. | |||||||
12-12-21 | Bills v. Bucs -3.5 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 102 | 31 h 12 m | Show |
The Bills meet the Bucs in a much awaited matchup. The game features two premier passers and a pair of pass-first offenses, so the outcome depends on how each team defends. Brady and his receivers face the Bills’ top ranked pass defense, but what the Bills don’t do is pressure the quarterback effectively. The Bucs have been very good at protecting Brady, so we can see a situation where Brady, with time, will be throwing against a very good secondary. For Allen the reverse is true. The Bucs have the 20th ranked pass defense, but are very good at pressuring the opposing QB. They are fourth in sacks for the season and had 5 last week. Can the Bucs get to Allen regularly or will he pick them to pieces through the air? A key factor in this game could be defense in the red zone. While the Bucs give up passing yards, they are significantly better than the Bills in defending in the red zone. What about the running game? What running game.. The Bills don’t run much. Even last week in gale force winds, they stuck to the program. It is tough to run against the Bucs; they are 2nd rated in rushing defense. Tampa Bay has viable run options, but it is always option #2. Looking at how successful teams have been against the usually dependable Bills' run defense lately might give the Bucs pause for thought. The Bills have been uneven this year, but good on the road. The Bucs, other than a blip in the beginning of November have maintained a steady ship, and are undefeated at home. Brady and Gronk have owned the Bills. Take Tampa Bay to win and cover. | |||||||
12-12-21 | Florida A&M +13 v. Akron | Top | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
FAMU/Akron. The 2-5 Rattlers get ready to take on the 5-3 Zips. Outright win? I'm not calling for that. But I do think this is a few too many points to be giving up to FAMU. FAMU enters off a 69-55 loss to Florida Gulf Coast last time out. Bryce Morgan was a bright spot with 13 points (the Rattlers though are 7-1 ATS in their last eight off a SU/ATS loss in which they were held to 55 points or less in.) The Zips have won three straight. They're the better team. But I think they come in complacent here and get caught looking past their lowly opponent (note that Akron is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a double-digit non-conference home favorite.) The Rattlers are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Florida A&M. | |||||||
12-12-21 | Raiders v. Chiefs -9.5 | 9-48 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
The Raiders meet the Chiefs in a rematch, with the Chiefs winning in a blowout in Vegas last time out. The Chiefs are winning, but not as expected; their defense is ruling the roost, allowing an average of only10 points over their last 4 games. Vegas has struggled at 1-5. The Raiders’ QB has had a solid season, but he is a one trick pony, so as goes he, so go the Raiders. Carr is passing for 260+ yards over his last three games which is down for him. He has been sacked 27 times this year and has surprisingly few TDs (17) compared to other elite Qbs. By comparison, Mahomes, very much on a down year, has thrown for less yds, but is sacked much less and has far more TDs. The Chiefs’ O line, unlike the Raiders’, has shown solid improvement in protecting their QB. These are pass-first offenses. Vegas is 28th in rushing yards, the Chiefs 19th. For the Chiefs, Edwards-Hilaire is healthy at RB, and Mahomes is always a dangerous option. The Raiders have Jacobs, who has run for 470+ yards but averages only 3.8 yds a carry. Teams have had success passing against the Chiefs, but they don’t score that often. The Chiefs have really tightened up in the red zone, and in Tds allowed. They are tough to play against, with more than 2 takeaways in each of 4 last games, and very good sack totals. Quarterbacks have been successful against the Raiders, with a 97+ QB rate against them, 26th in the league. They held WFT to 17 points, but allowed 32+ in their previous three games. The Chiefs are heavy favorites, so a win is expected, but will they cover? Vegas is out-coached, and Mahomes is due. With no real running game it is hard to see the Raiders controlling the ball. This might not be the blow out we saw in their last meeting, but I expect the Chiefs to cover. | |||||||
12-11-21 | Austin Peay v. North Florida -1.5 | 84-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Austin Peay/North Florida The Governors are 4-3, but just 1-2 on the road. North Florida is 2-9 overall, but 2-0 at home. Austin Peay is off a relatively simple 98-55 home win over Milligan (note though that the Governors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a 30 points or greater SU/ATS home victory.) The Ospreys are off an 85-55 loss at Florida, but note that they're a near-perfect 6-1 ATS in their last seven off a SU/ATS road loss of 30 or more points. The level of competition has to be called into question for each side. Numbers are skewed. Home floor is big here. 9* COACHES CORNER on North Florida. | |||||||
12-10-21 | Lakers v. Thunder +6 | Top | 116-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Lakers/Thunder The Lakers are 13-13 after a 108-95 loss at Memphis last night. LA has chemistry issues. It's also old. The Lakers won't be in the NBA Finals this year obviously. The young Thunder are off a huge 110-109 road win at Toronto. I say they keep it rolling here. OKC already beat the Lakers 107-104 as 10.5-point underdogs on November 4th and I think it can do it again. James and company have a target on their back every night. They always have to face their opponents "A" game. Look for this road weary Lakers team to once again fall below the .500 mark. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER Thunder. | |||||||
12-09-21 | Denver +12.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 67-87 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Denver/New Mexico New Mexico is a heavy favorite. Denver has struggled this year, but I think it comes in under the radar tonight. The Lobos have been inconsistent. They beat New Mexico State 101-94 on the road, before then falling 78-76 to the Aggies at home in the following one. Denver will have an opportunity here against a New Mexico side that ranks 266th in terms of defensive efficiency rankings. New Mexico is getting great pla from Jamal Mashburn Jr., who is avearging 21 PPG, but the Lobos are already 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite. Denver on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog. I think the Pioneers keep this one interesting down the stretch. 10* COACHES CORNER on Denver. | |||||||
12-09-21 | Steelers +3.5 v. Vikings | 28-36 | Loss | -119 | 36 h 42 m | Show | |
Only the Vikings could reel off 426 yards of offense and still lose. Last week, Cousins had a solid game, and he has been that way all year. He has 23 TDs against only three interceptions. He has had time to throw, and has been well protected with only 15 sack for the season. That may change against the Steelers. Pittsburgh sacked the QB 7 times last week, and leads the league in applying pressure. TJ Watt is a monster, and can be a game changer. The Vikings, rated right behind Pittsburgh, can crash a quarterback as well. It is one of the only areas where the Viking defense excels. Where the Vikings’ 24th rated defense does not pass muster is in the red zone (25th), against the run (29th), and pass yards against (22nd). The Vikings are a pass-first offense but they do have run options. There main man Cook is out, but Mattison filled in well last week. The Steelers’ defense has not been great against the run either, but will make life difficult for Cousins and his receivers, especially in the red zone. This would seem a perfect opportunity for the Steelers to run the ball, and they have the man for the job. Rookie Najee Harris has become a legitimate 2 way force, but the Steelers until now choose not to exploit the run much. Roethlisberger is not the force he once was, but he has slowly improved this year. The Steelers’ O line has been more effective lately, and he has only 6 interceptions against 14 Tds. He will face pressure from the Vikings defense. We are starting to see more of the “tough to play against” character of the Steelers and that is not good news for the Vikings. Pittsburgh has momentum on their side, and are 4-1-1 ATS lately. The Vikings are not an effective home team this year. Look for the Vikings to struggle on offense on Thursday, and Roethlisberger, in his final season, do enough to keep this one close or win.Take Pittsburgh | |||||||
12-08-21 | Central Michigan +11 v. Youngstown State | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
CMU/YSU Youngstown is a heavy favorite here, but this line is just a little TOO steep for in my reckoning. CMU enters off a 97-70 loss to Western Illinois. Cameron Healy was a bright spot with a career-high 24 points. Kevin Miller added 15. Off B2B road conference victoriees, I think the Penguins get caught flat-footed here. Most recently they beat Green Bay 82-58. Tevin Olison led all scorers with 20 points. The Chips though are 3-1 ATS in their last four after allowing 90 or more points in their previous game, while the Penguins are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Penguins are averaging only 66 PPG at home, while CMU is averaging 61.2 PPG on the road. So grab the points here and expect a solid cover at the very least. 8* play on Central Michigan. | |||||||
12-07-21 | South Dakota +8.5 v. Northern Colorado | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
South Dakota/Northern Colorado South Dakota is 5-3 and I think it's going to give 5-5 Northern Colorado a run for its money this evening. The Coyotes come in off a 93-37 win over Waldorf College. Where's Waldorf? Erik Oliver solved the puzzle and scored 20 points and had had three rebounds as well. Northern Colorado is off a tight 78-75 win over Montana on Saturday, getting 18 points from Daylen Kountz. The Bears though are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following an ATS victory. South Dakota on the other hand is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after scoring 90 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing. This one is going to come down to the wire. I'm grabbing the points. South Dakota. 10* Game Of The Week. | |||||||
12-06-21 | Patriots +2.5 v. Bills | 14-10 | Win | 105 | 58 h 4 m | Show | |
On paper, the Patriots and Bills are close, but the edge goes to Buffalo. On the “what have you done lately” scale, the baton passes to the Patriots. Here are a few good reasons to take New England on Monday night. 1. Mac Jones has shown remarkable poise and improvement in his first year. The kid can really think on his feet, rivalling top veteran QBs. How much has he improved? Last week he threw for 330 yards, with a 120+ QB rating, and in his last three weeks, he has a 79% pass completion rate. Just try and keep up with the Jones! 2. the Patriots are winning by miles ATS, and beating some worthy opponents while doing it. The Bills, 2-3 and a push over the same period, have been erratic. The pummeled a very depleted Saints team but rolled over for the Colts. 3. A huge improvement in the Patriots’ pass defense. Over the last three games, the passing yards allowed has dropped from a seasonal average of 200 to 109 yards allowed. They are 9th in sacks, and solid pressuring the passer. The Bills’ very good pass defense has declined slightly on average, and they do not pressure the passer as much. 4. The Patriots appear poised, confident, and ready for greater glory. I am not so sure about the Bills. They are a good but uneven team, maybe ready to be toppled. It will likely be close but take the Patriots on Monday. | |||||||
12-06-21 | Cavs +7 v. Bucks | Top | 104-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Cavs/Bucs Why is everyone continuing to sleep on the Cavaliers? Cleveland comes into this one likely as the hottest team in the league after seven straight ATS victories. Hows does that old saying go, good teams win, but great teams cover? The Cavs had won four straight SU, before a tight 109-108 loss at home to Utah. I like the Cavs to respond here in the second game of the back to back. The Bucks are dealing with injury issues and are preparing for a tough four-game road swing starting in Miami on Wednesday night. And that's signficant to note, as the Bucks are off a 124-102 home win over the Heat in their most recent action Saturday. Look for the under the radar visiting side to keep this one interesting late. 10* COACHES CORNER on Cavaliers. | |||||||
12-05-21 | Broncos +9 v. Chiefs | 9-22 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
The Chiefs are off a bye week, rested and relatively healthy, and at home in prime time. Time for a blow out win over Denver? Maybe not. The Broncos have been solid vs a pass-first offense this year. They are 10th rated against the pass, with a good secondary, and effective at applying pressure to the QB. They do not have a dominant QB like Mahomes, but Bridgewater has been accurate and doesn’t give the ball away, with only 5 interceptions all year. The Broncos’ running game has been solid. They are down a running back, but Williams has been a real eye-opener this year and this could be his game to shine. The Chiefs’ pass defense is only 24th rated, and other than last game, they do not pressure QBs overly, so if the Broncos can establish a running game to support Bridgewater, this game could be close. What to say about Mahomes. He was brilliant against the Raiders, and good against the Cowboys, but he will likely face more pressure from the Broncos than in either of his last two games. If he has a weakness, it is that he has thrown a good number of interceptions this year with 11 already. Unlike the Broncos, the Chiefs over all are prone to giveaways. On the plus side, the Chiefs’ defense appears to have improved this year, all the way from problematic to solid. Any success the Broncos have tonight rests on just which Chiefs defense shows up. The Chiefs are a largish favorite, but are not particularly impressive ATS. Denver as well as KC are an improved team this year with momentum of their own. I don’t expect Denver to win, but this game may be closer than expected. Take the Broncos | |||||||
12-05-21 | Ohio State v. Penn State +5.5 | Top | 76-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Ohio State/Penn State Ohio State is off a 71-66 upset win over No. 1 Duke on Tuesday. It came from behind after being down by 13 points at halftime. EJ Lidell had 14 points and 11 boards, while Zed Key led all scorers with 20 points. Call it a trap, call it a letdown, call you what you will, but I think that the Buckeyes are primed for a minor letdown here. The 4-3 Penn State Nittany Lions don't have the same luxury though after falling 63-58 to Miami on Wednesday. John Harrar had 16 points, but the Nittany Lions turned the ball over 14 times. Ohio State averages 74.7 PPG, and it allows 68.9. Penn State is averaging 67.3 PPG, while conceding only 64.1. I say Ohio State has difficulty producing the same effort for a second straight time on the road. Look for the hungrier team to keep it close, if not come out on top. 10* COACHES CORNER on Penn State. | |||||||
12-05-21 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | 23-30 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
The Seahawks beat the 49ers in early October, but much has changed since then. The 49er have what the Seahawks need, which is a running game. Seattle has averaged only 65 yards in their last three starts. Wilson is exposed, and the Seahawks’ possession time is limited. The resurgence of the 49ers’ running game coincides with the recent strong performance of Garoppolo. The 49ers, 6th rated and rising in rushing yards are averaging more than double the yards per game. Missing Samuel will be a loss on the ground and in the air, but Mitchell ran for 130+ yards on his own last week. Wilson looked better last week but the WFT’s pass defense isn’t even on the same planet as the 49ers’. It will likely be a long game for Wilson; the Seahawks’ offensive line is allowing more than 3 sacks a game, and the 49ers’ defense take no prisoners. Garoppolo has been effective and efficient, with very impressive stats in his last few games. He has only thrown two interceptions in 5 games, and has had good protection. The Seattle passing defense is rock bottom in yards allowed, and does not pressure well. With a strong running game, and a good offensive line, look for Garoppolo to have something of a field day. Final nail in the coffin: Seattle has been miserable at home, while the 49ers are road warriors this year and are 4-1 ATS lately. Favorable odds are out there. Take the 49ers to win and cover. | |||||||
12-05-21 | Giants v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 100 h 10 m | Show |
Giants/Dolphins With the Dolphins, it is very much “what have you done lately?”The answer is a lot; 4 wins in a row, 4-0-1 ATS, Tagovailoa hitting 80+ completion % and +100 QB rating four times in the last five games for starters. Looking through the stats, the last four games show a dramatic turnaround. The Dolphins’ run defense, 10th on average, has been much better than that recently and has been blitzing very successfully. Even their dismal running game has improved. For the Giants, the outlook is not so rosy. Jones their QB is not likely to play. His replacement Glennon is 6-21 lifetime and has hardly played this season. Last week the Giants’ defense held the Eagles to 7 points but they were only able to score 13. Without Jones, and with an average running game (of which Jones was an active part) up against the tough Dolphins run defense, it will be hard to score points this week. The Dolphins haven’t allowed more than 17 points in five games and have faced better teams than the Giants. Look for the Dolphins to continue in their winning way and cover. | |||||||
12-04-21 | Spurs +9.5 v. Warriors | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
Spurs/Warriors The Spurs are quietly playing their best basketball of the season. They've won three straight, most recently a 114-83 win at Portland. I love San Antonio here, and would recommend sprinkling a little on the moneyline as well. Golden State bounced back with a huge 118-96 victory here last night against the Suns, revenging a loss at Phoenix a week earlier. I say the Warriors get caught complacent here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Note that GS is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight when playing the second game of a B2B after scoring 115 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in the first. This is way too many points to be giving up to this much improved and confident Spurs side. I'm grabbing all these points. 8* PLAY on Spurs. | |||||||
12-04-21 | Houston v. Cincinnati -10 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Houston/Cincinnati. The Cougars went 11-1 on the season, while the Bearcats enter at 12-0. With a win today, Cincinnati can become the first group of five conference program to reach the Playoff since it was started back in 2014. Houston averages 38.8 PPG. QB Clayton Tune was great with 3,013 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Alton McCaskill has 844 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground. The Cougars have been stout defensively as well, allowing 19.8 PPG. That defense will be tested like it hasn't seen all season though with the Bearcats offense that averages 39.6 PPG. Desmond Ritter has 3,000 passing yards and 27 TD's, along with 342 rushing yards and six rushing TD's. The Bearcats defense has also been remarkable, allowing just 15.8 PPG. Finally note that Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while the Cougars are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 following a SU win of more than 20 points. Lay the points, expect a blowout. Cincinnati 10* Game of the Week. | |||||||
12-04-21 | Arkansas-Little Rock +27.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 78-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Arkansas Little Rock/Arkansas I think Arkansas takes the foot off the gas in the second half here as it gets caught looking ahead to the start of its conference schedule, starting with a tough game at Okalahoma, followed by at Mississippi State. UALR has so far beaten the teams it should, and struggled against the "better" competition. That was the case last time out, falling 86-55 at Colorado State. But this line is inflated here now. Note that UALR is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as well after a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 55 or less points in. This line is a little TOO big. Look for a comfortable backdoor cover from the visiting side. UALR 10* COACHES CORNER. | |||||||
12-03-21 | VMI +3.5 v. Portland | 90-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
VMI/Portland I think the hungry 4-4 VMI Keydets will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Portland Pilots come in complacent at 7-2 in my reckoning. The Keydets enter off an 88-40 blowout win over Summit. Kamdyn Curfman had 16 points. The Pilots have played some weak competition as well this year though, most recently a 77-68 win over Incarnate Word. Mike Meadows had 22 points and three boards in the win. The Pilots though are a terrible 2-8 ATS in their last ten at home, while VMI is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a SU/ATS win in which it held its opponent to 50 or fewer points in. Grab the points. 8* PLAYBOOK on VMI. | |||||||
12-03-21 | 76ers +1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
76ers/Hawks I think this one sets up well for the hungry visiting side. Philadelphia is 11-11, while Atlanta is 12-10. The 76ers are off a tight 88-87 loss at Boston. Philly had to play from behind the entire night, and it was just unable to get over the hump at the end. With a tough upcoming two-game road set at Charlotte, the 76ers can't afford to take the foot off the gas. The Hawks are off a 114-111 win at Indiana to open up December. When these teams played on October 30th, the 76ers won 122-94 as 3.5 point favorites and I expect a similar final discrepancy here as well. This is a good matchup for Joel Embiid. He was shutdown by the Celtics, but finally we can expect a monster game from the Philly big man. There's plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. This is going to be a dog fight. One last big stat working in favor of the visiting side sees the 76ers having gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine off a SU road loss in which they were held to 90 or fewer points in. Grab the points. 10* GAME OF MONTH on Philadelphia. | |||||||
12-02-21 | Pistons +13 v. Suns | Top | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Pistons/Suns I base my picks on many different things. Being flexible with one's approach is crucial in my opinion. Here I just think that the Suns are overvalued because of their 18 game win streak. They just took out the Warriors at home here two nights ago, and Golden State was on a 17-game win streak. The Suns ultimately could care less about their win streak. They're realistic and understand it'll come to an end at some point. That won't be tonight. I believe the Suns will win, but I expect them to take the foot off the gas down the stretch as they prepare for the rematch with the Warriors in Golden State tomorrow night. Look for the hungry Pistons to end their road trip with a solid effort and comfortable cover. 10* COACHES CORNER on the Pistons. | |||||||
12-02-21 | Cowboys -4.5 v. Saints | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
A pair of teams in recovery meet in Thursday night Football. Right now there are questions around who will play, but a few things are known. Taysom Hill will be the Saints’ QB. He will likely be an improvement over Siemian, if for nothing else other than his running abilities, but he may not be completely recovered. The Saints’ pass offense has been dismal, and their run offense, without Kamara has dropped from an average of 120+ yards to 79 yards over the last three games. Kamara is still questionable. The Saints possession time has been very poor in their last games as well. The Saints’ claim to fame is their formidable 3rd rated run offense, but you wouldn’t have know it in the two previous weeks, giving up a massive 242 and 113 yards respectively. New Orleans’ pass defense is not in the same league at 23rd ranked, which will be a bonus for Prescott. Dak seems completely recovered, and was impressive last week. This week he will have some of his usual suspects back for targets. The Cowboys’ running game has plummeted in the past weeks with a banged up Elliott continuing to play, but Pollard is healthy. The Cowboys defense is weak and was picked to pieces by Vegas last week. Their run defense on average is, well, average.. For the Saints to get anywhere against the Cowboys, their run defense will have to bounce back, and Hill will have to generate some much needed offense. Hill is the wild card here, and it would be asking a lot for him to carry the Saints offense. The Cowboys will be working hard to restore their season, and might be the healthier of the two teams. I can't see New Orleans putting enough points on the board to keep up with Prescott and that #1 offense. Take The Cowboys to win and cover. | |||||||
12-02-21 | Lamar +25 v. Mississippi State | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Lamar/Mississippi State Two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum end their respective non-conference parts of their schedules here. Mississippi State is 5-1 and Lamar is 1-6. I think the Bulldogs come in complacent and leave the back door open in the second half. They're off an emotional 82-71 OT win over Richmond last time out, and I think they're over-priced here. The Cardinals are coming off a loss to Texas Tech. They've taken their lumps, but they have talent and experience and while the outright win is out of the question, the stage is definitely set here for a much tighter battle than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Grab all those points! 8* PLAY on Lamar. | |||||||
12-01-21 | Rockets +3.5 v. Thunder | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Rockets/Thunder Houston has won and covered in three straight. That includes a 102-89 victory over OKC two nights ago at home. Normally I always "look" at the revenge factor, but here I don't think it matters at all. And that's because the Rockets are still just 4-16 on the season. Houston is unquestionably playing its best basketball of the season right now and I expect it to keep the good times rolling here again. After six straight ATS covers, the Thunder finally stumbled in Houston last time out and I expect that trend to continue here. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has returned from injury for the Thunder, but it's not going to be enough here against this suddenly surging young Rockets team. Grab the points though! 8* COACHES CORNER on Houston. | |||||||
12-01-21 | Boston University v. George Washington +2 | 56-54 | Push | 0 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Boston U/George Washington. The 5-3 Boston Terriers are going to have their hands full with the 2-6 George Washington Colonials in my opinion. Boston is off a tight 61-60 win over Merrimack. Overall the Terriers average 69.9 PPG, while allowing 63.6. The Colonials are out to rebound off a 72-54 loss to a tough Missouri State team. George Washington averages 63.3 PPG, while allowing 71.4. Clearly, if just looking at each side's offensive and defensive numbers, the visitors would seem to be the correct call. But that's not the case. Strength of schedule has to be taken into account here. I like the Colonials to defend home court and find a way to deliver in this one. 8* MID MAJOR MONEY TIME on George Washington. | |||||||
11-30-21 | Pistons v. Blazers -8.5 | Top | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Pistons/Blazers Portland has gone 0-3 SU/ATS over its last three. I expect it to come in focussed on the task at hand in this one. Detroit lost both games in LA, but covered in each as a big underdog. The Pistons though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after back-to-back road covers. Portland on the other hand is 7-1 ATS in its last eight after after three straight SU/ATS road losses in a row. The Blazers have always played better at home, and that's definitely the case again this season, as they're just 1-10 on the road and 9-1 in Portland. Detroit is just 2-8 on the road. Look for the determined home side to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn. 10* COACHES CORNER on Portland. | |||||||
11-29-21 | Montana v. Oregon -12.5 | 47-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
Montana/Oregon Montana is pretty good, but I expect Oregon to lay the hammer down from start to finish tonight. The Grizzlies are 4-2, most recently scoring a 74-62 win over Southern Miss on Friday. Lonnell Martin Jr. had 20 points in the victory. Oregon is 3-3 after back-to-back losses. Most recently the Ducks got smashed 78-49 by HOuston. Eric Williams Jr. had 13 points in the losing cause. Here's the perfect opponent to get back on track against. Montana excels on the defensive end, conceding just 60.3 PPG. Oregon isn't far behind allowing 66.5. The Ducks have routinely been one of the best defensive teams in the nation, but there's still lots of time to make adjustments. Both teams also sport similar offensive numbers. Montana's early schedule has to be called into question here. Also note that the Grizzlies are a terrible 1-5 against the spread in their last six on the road. When Montana faced Mississippi State this year, it conceded 86 points. I'm laying the points here and expecting a blowout. Oregon 8* PLAYBOOK. | |||||||
11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +1 | Top | 15-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
It is last call for the Seahawks on Sunday, sporting a 30th and 32nd ranked offense and defense, and the Washington FT on the upswing. Wilson has not been in form since returning, but no matter how he performs on Monday, Seattle has very significant issues standing between them and a win. The Seahawks, missing Carson, and with Collins limited, are without any real options on the run, and the FT handles the rush very well. Washington has a legitimate run game, 10th rated and improving in their last three games. The Seahawks defense has struggled against the run all season. As a backup QB, Heineke has performed much better than expected, particularly in his last two games. He has thrown for 4 TDs against 0 interceptions in those two games. Wilson is still an unknown this week, and he will face a poor but dramatically improving WFT pass defense. The same cannot be said of the Seahawks’ passing defense. They have been bad, (rated 30th) and stayed bad. Neither team protects their QB well, but Seattle really struggles; Wilson has been sacked 7 times in the two games since his return. Wilson has worked miracles before, but the Seahawks aren’t helping his cause. This game is basically a pick’um. I am picking the Washington football team. | |||||||
11-28-21 | Browns v. Ravens -3 | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
It hasn’t been the season that the Browns expected but they are still in the hunt. The oft-injured Browns are recovering, although Mayfield is playing injured and, apparently, angry. He has not been at his best, with only 163 passing yards average in the last 3 games, and 10 touchdowns against 27 sacks. The Browns have the best rush offense in the league with Chub and possibly Hunt, but they are up against the Ravens’ 2nd rated rush defense. The Ravens’ pass defense is not in the same league at 2nd to last, but they do like to blitz, and as seen in the sack figures, the Browns don’t protect their passer very well. For the Ravens, Lamar Jackson is back. He is the 11th ranked passer in the league, with 14 TDs against an ugly 28 sacks. He has also run for 600+ yards this year, and with the other running backs, has a rush offense that doesn’t trail the Browns by much. Weakness #2 is the Ravens’ offensive line, although the Browns do not have a habit of blitzing regularly. The Browns defense overall is solid, but they have had some very lopsided losses this season. Teams that have handled the Browns running game have pretty well had their way with them. The Ravens' solid run defense could put them in that category. Jackson and the Ravens have handled the Browns in the past, and are very good at home. So the Ravens win, but do they cover? They aren't good ATS this year, but have been against the Browns. Ravens | |||||||
11-28-21 | Chargers -2.5 v. Broncos | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show | |
The Chargers and Broncos couldn’t be much more different. The Chargers have a 4th ranked pass-centered offense built around a young, explosive, if occasionally uneven QB in Herbert. The Broncos are a low scoring, low points allowed team. QB Bridgewater doesn’t throw a lot, is accurate and conservative with few interceptions. The rushing offense should figure prominently for the Broncos on Sunday if Denver has any hope of success. They have a solid ‘double threat’ pair of running backs who maybe don’t get used as much as they should. The Chargers defense is very poor vs the run, although improving somewhat in the last three games. The Broncos offensive line is injury riddled and rough at the best of times. Bridgewater has been sacked 21 times already, so the running game look even more attractive. The run has not been a focus for the Chargers, or at least not until recently. Ekeler has developed into a solid pass and run threat, and of course Herbert can run effectively. The Chargers will have their hands full running on Sunday as the Broncos defense (last week notwithstanding) has been solid vs the run. Where the Broncos struggle is against the pass. They are the 29th rated team defending against the pass and have a poor pass rush. This plays to the strength of the Chargers offense and will I think, be decisive in the final outcome. The Chargers are 2 ½ point favorites, and will have just too much offense for the Broncos to match. Look for the Chargers to win and cover. | |||||||
11-28-21 | Titans v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 13-36 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
The Patriots are winning and often by a wide margin, limiting their last 3 opponents to a touchdown or less. The injury-riddled Titans have given up an average of 20 points over their last 4 games. Post-Henry, the Titans rush offense has dropped significantly. Tannehill, without the protection of a premier running game and his three top targets, has been exposed and has seen his sack numbers rise to a whopping 31, along with 12 interceptions. By comparison, rookie Mac Jones has developed well this season, has a higher completion rate, has been sacked less and has 2/3rds the interceptions. His completion rate has been in the 80’s in the last three Patriot games. The Patriots’ running game has found new footage of late, and has been in the NFL top three in their last 3 games. The Titan 5th rated defense are hard to run against for yards, but they are not as effective in run points allowed. The Patriots are far more effective against the pass. Injuries may catch up with the Titans on Sunday. With Henry, Jones and Brown all out, and Tannehill exposed, it is hard to see where their points will come from. If the Patriots maintain their withering defense of the last few games, and Jones continues in good form, the Patriots should win and cover. Patriots | |||||||
11-27-21 | Jets v. Flames -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
The Jets stagger into Calgary on a back to back and after a drubbing from the Wild. Flames are rested and have Markstrom in net. It is likely Comrie in the net for the Jets and he was shelled last time out. The Flames are on a tear at the moment, have the best defense in the league, and a balanced and potent offense. At 0-5, the Jets aren't scoring and are not going to break their losing streak tonight. Take the Flames -1 1/2 all the way to the bank. | |||||||
11-27-21 | Texas-Arlington +15.5 v. Utah State | Top | 61-80 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
UTA/USU UTA has lost all four games it's played this year against Division 1 opponents and its path doesn't get any easier this evening at Utah State. All that said though, I like the Mavericks to keep this one much closer than what this spread is suggesting. UTA is already quietly turning the corner with its performance, losing to SDSU by six points in its last outing (as a 19-point underdog.) Utah State enters complacent here after four straight wins. The Aggies won the Myrtle Beach championship with a 73-70 win over the Sooners last Sunday, so this sets up as a classic "trap" for the home side in my opinion. Utah State may have been undervalued in the betting market up to this point, but now it's the Mavericks who are in that role. UTA is playing much better now than its earlier struggles and numbers are still pointing to, so expect that progression to continue here. Grab the points. Texas Arlington 10* GAME OF MONTH. | |||||||
11-27-21 | Heat -1.5 v. Bulls | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Heat/Bulls The Heat have lost two of their last three, while the Bulls have lost two of three as well. These are two of the best in the East, but each is looking to snap out of their current mini-slides. Both teams are loaded with talent, so it wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument either way. The Bulls though are off a satisfying 123-88 road win at Olrando just last night (they're only 1-6 ATS in their last seven after a SU/ATS road win in which they posted 120 or more points in.) Expect fatigue to be a factor here for Chicago and lay the points. 8* Top Tussle on Heat. | |||||||
11-27-21 | Georgia Southern +24.5 v. Appalachian State | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern/App State No outright, but closer than expected. This is the "Deeper Than Hate Rivalry" matchup at the Kidd Brewer Stadium. Georgia Southern is off a 34-17 home loss to BYU as a 20-point underdog. App State though has already locked up top spot and a place in the conferene title game, so I expect it to take the proverbial "foot off the gas" in the second half. And that'll leave the door WIDE open for the Eagles to run through here. Connor Cigelske was a bright spot in his team's loss last weekend going 11 of 14 for 122 yards, while also rushing for 20 more. Overall the Eagles average 21.8, while allowing 31.8. The Mountaineers have nothing to play for here. They average 36.5 PPG, while allowing 20.4. Chase Brice is amazing, but I expect the team to play conservative in the second half. This spread is too large. Georgia Southern. 8* play. | |||||||
11-27-21 | Houston v. Connecticut +32.5 | Top | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
Houston/UConn Outright win? I'm not saying that of course. But I think that Houston will go up big, then cost to victory here in the second half as it prepares for the Conference Championship game and its Bowl berth. Houston is 10-1 and off the 31-13 home win over Memphis (note that the Cougars are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS home win in which they held their opponent to 13 or fewer points in.) UConn has only played three games this year that were decided by ten points or fewer. The Huskies are averaging 15.5 PPG, while conceding 37.9. Houston averages 38.2 PPG, while allowing 20.1. The only knock against the Cougars this season is their level of competition. But it's senior night for UConn as well. I say that the Huskies comfortably sneak in through the back door. 10* COACHES CORNER on UCONN. | |||||||
11-26-21 | Wolves +2.5 v. Hornets | 115-133 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Wolves/Hornets The Wolves are 9-9, but they come in red hot as they've won five of their last six. The Hornets are 12-8 overall, and they've won seven of their last eight games. The Wolves have been sharp defensively, allowing just 105 PPG. The combination of Karl Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and Patrick Beverley has been very effective. LaMelo Ball leads the nightly charge for the Hornets. He is averaging 19.8 points, 8.1 boards and 7.7 assists this year. While Charlotte does average 112.2 PPG (ranked third), it struggles defensively, ranked 22nd in defensive rating so far this season. The Hornets are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten vs. the Western Conference and I think this is a bad matchup for them. Grab the points, but don't be shocked by an outright. 8* PICK on Wolves. | |||||||
11-26-21 | South Florida +18.5 v. Central Florida | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
USF/UCF USF is 2-9. UCF is 7-4. This is senior night for the Knights, but I think they'll get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. While the Bulls are only 2-9 SU, they've been profitable for bettors this season at 6-5 ATS. And while UCF is 7-4 SU (including 6-0 at home), it's only 4-7 ATS (incl. just 3-3 ATS at home.) With the majority of the public money on the favorite here, I say this line is absolutely inflated. USF lost this game by a score of 58-46 last season, and I expect a similar effort from the Bulls here as well. The numbers/trends and overall situation points to the points as the savvy move. 8* Playbook on USF. | |||||||
11-26-21 | Missouri +15 v. Arkansas | 17-34 | Loss | -113 | 21 h 20 m | Show | |
Missouri/Arkansas. Both teams are bowl eligible, but an upset victory today for the Tigers will ensure that they have nothing to worry about. Arkansas is 7-4 overall, and 5-1 at home. It's off a "near miss" in its last game, falling 42-35 at Alabama as a 20.5-point underdog. After that emotional setback, I say that the Razorbacks have a predictable mental letdown here. I'm not calling for a straight up upset or anything like that, but I do absolutely believe that the stage is set for a much tighter game than most are expecting. The setback to Alabama actually broke a slide of five straight ATS losses for Arkansas. The Tigers? They're off a thrilling 24-23 OT win at home over Florida to move to 6-5 and I say they have the offense and the overall motivation to keep this one interesting. 8* COACHES CORNER on Missouri. | |||||||
11-25-21 | Bills -6 v. Saints | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
The Bills have a few things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. 1. They are healthy, a novel concept in the NFL. 2. The Saints are not. Missing major players in the offensive line, and with Kamara missing and Ingram questionable, the Saints running game has taken a big hit. 3. Siemian is showing his true colors. Siemian’s completion rate is in the 50’s, very low considering the protection he has received, and without Kamara as a run threat and a passing out, he will be even more limited. The Bills were embarrassed last week by the Colts, their usually solid run defense torn to shreds. The Saints, usually even better against the run, were also pummeled, with much of that coming from opposing QB Hurts. Allen can run. Can he duplicate Hurts’ success? Allen has struggled of late and has not lived up to expectations. This game provides an opportunity for bounce back, if he can control an ugly pattern of turnovers. He has been protected well this season, and the 22nd rated Saints passing defense could be picked on. I like Buffalo in this game. The Bills have a winning record on the road, the Saints have struggled at home. With a depleted running game, Siemian up against a tough Bills passing defense and with the Saints’ depleted O line, I just don’t see where the Saints’ points are coming from. This is the perfect opportunity for Allen and the Bills to shine. Take the Bills to win and cover. | |||||||
11-25-21 | Baylor v. VCU +12.5 | Top | 69-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Baylor/VCU This is the semi's of the Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. I like VCU to carry over its momentum here after upsetting Syracuse 67-55 as a 5-point underdog. It's early, but the Rams average 54 PPG, while allowing 52. Levi Stockard III had 15 points in the victory over the Orange. Baylor is a perfect 5-0. Its' averaging 85.8 points per game, while conceding 55.6. LJ Cryer had 15 points in the Bears 75-63 win over Arizona State last night. Clearly VCU will be trying to double down on the defensive end tonight to try and grind out the upset. Expect this one to be much closer than what this line is suggesting. VCU 10* COACHES CORNER. | |||||||
11-25-21 | Raiders v. Cowboys -7 | 36-33 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
The Cowboys may not be as banged up as was suggested, which is bad news for the Raiders. At home, in primetime, and after that loss to the Chiefs, Prescott and the Cowboys will be looking to flex their muscular offense. The Cowboys are a very good home team, and they meet the Raiders at a fortuitious moment. The Raiders are struggling in the last three games and in a big way, with points for at 14.3 and huge totals against. Even their very strong pass offense has dropped by 50 yds, and their 3 down conversions are miserable. Carr has been very good in passing for yards, but trails Prescott in accuracy & passing TDs, and interceptions. Without a prominent run offense or offensive line, Carr has been sacked more often. Aside from Prescott and a variety of fine targets, the Cowboys have a potent two pronged rushing attack with Elliot reportedly available this week. In fact the running game may be a deciding factor on Turkey day, with the Cowboys defending well against the run, and the Raiders, you guessed it, struggling. The Cowboys’ defense has been better than expected this year; last week, a case in point, they held Mahomes and co. to 19 points. There is not much doubt that the Cowboys will win this one. I am also counting on them to cover. Cowboys | |||||||
11-25-21 | Bears -3 v. Lions | 16-14 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
As traditional as Turkey lately, the Lions are in primetime on Thanksgiving day. Make that EARLY prime time! Here are a couple of key notes. The Bears have already beaten the Lions this year and covered. The Lions are 6-4 against the spread but the Bears, while 4-6 overall against the spread, are 4-1 ATS against teams with a losing record. The quarterback situation is unclear in Detroit, with Goff being ‘will he won’t he’. On the other side, it will be back up Andy Dalton at QB. Dalton has experience, and will be better protected than usual as the Lions are worst in the league in pressuring the quarterback. Whoever starts for Detroit will face likely more pressure, as the Bears are 2nd int the league in sacks. This game will likely feature the running game from both reams. The Bears have the advantage in the rushing department with a hot Montgomery and the 6th rated rushing attack against a Lions defense that is 31st in the league. Montgomery ran for 100+ yards and two Tds the last time out against the Lion. While the Lions’ running game has potential, it is middle of the pack in terms of yards. The Bears defense are more likely to control Swift and the Lions’ run game than the reverse against Montgomery. The Lions are at home, which hasn’t made a difference this season as they are winless. The Bears aren’t a terrific road team but need a victory. The odds have tightened up in the Bears’ favor. I favor the Bears but it will be close. Take Chicago | |||||||
11-24-21 | Heat v. Wolves +1.5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Heat/Wolves. Miami is off a 100-92 win at Detroit, unable to cover the 10.5-point spread. The Heat have lost two straight ATS. With two nights off after this, followed by a final road game at Chicago, I think Miami gets caught flat-footed again here. The Wolves are getting zero respect from the oddsmakers. They're slow in realizing how good Minnesota is playing right now. Minnesota has won four straight and covered in five straight. This is the best basketball that Minnesota has played in years. Note that the Wolves are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a SU/ATS road win in which they held their opponent to 99 or less points in (just beat Pels 110-96 in NO.) Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Wolves. | |||||||
11-24-21 | Hampton +10.5 v. South Florida | 52-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Hampton/USF. The Hampton Pirates are 2-3, and the USF Bulls are 2-2. Hampton won its first two games, but has since lost three straight. It'll be motivated here and I like wagering on motivated teams. The Pirates most recently lost 86-66 to Georiga Southern, led by Russell Dean with 30 points and three assists. USF is off a 58-52 loss to Auburn. Caleb Murphy was a bright spot in a losing cause with 19 points. The Bulls though are a poor 1-9 ATS in their last ten following an ATS victory. USF gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today as its hangover from the "near miss" vs. the Tigers carries over. Grab the points. 8* Situational Slam Dunk. | |||||||
11-23-21 | Heat v. Pistons +10 | Top | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Heat/Pistons. Is Miami the better team? Clearly it is. Am I calling for an outright upset? I am not. But I think that Miami comes in complacent here and "plays down" to the level of its competition. Miami is 11-6 overall, but only 5-5 on the road. It's off a 103-100 loss at Washington. Detroit is off the 121-116 loss to the Lakers, and it'll be plenty fired up after the scuffle with LeBron James etc. The Pistons are on the road for a very tough road trip as well after this game, with a game at Milwaukee tomorrow, followed by the Clippers, Lakers, Portland and Phoenix. That puts added importance onto tonight's game to try and "steal" a victory. Miami on the other hand is in Minnesota tomorrow night, followed by a game at the Bulls. I think the Heat get caught looking ahead. No outright. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Detroit. | |||||||
11-23-21 | Evansville +8.5 v. Vermont | 49-58 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Evanvsille/Vermont. Evansville is 2-4, while Vermont is 3-2. The Aces lost 109-104 to Rice last time out. Hamar Givance leads the way with 13 points and four assists per game. So far the Purple Aces have allowed 71.3 PPG, while averaging 63. The Catamounts are off a 63-61 loss to Oakland. They average 66.2 PPG, while allowing 57.6 (Ryan Davis leads the Catamounts in scoring with 18 PPG.) The early numbers on paper favor Vermont, but the competition of each side has to be taken into account to this point. These teams are more evenly matched than what this spread is trying to suggest. Grab the points. 10* GAME OF WEEK Evansville. | |||||||
11-22-21 | Grizzlies +9 v. Jazz | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Grizzlies/Jazz The Grizzlies had won two straight, scoring at least 120 points in each before getting blown out in their last game. Ja Morant averages 25.1 PPG for Memphis and he leads four players that average at least 14 PPG. The Jazz had lost four of five, before now entering this one having won three straight. Six players scored in double figures in the win over the Kings most recently. One of these teams is desperate to break out of its current slide, while the other comes in complacent. I think the hungrier team keeps this one competitive down the stretch (note that the Grizz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a 30 points or greater SU/ATS road loss in their last outing.) Grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Grizzlies. | |||||||
11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | 10-30 | Loss | -117 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
The Giants, well rested after their bye week face Brady and the Bucccaneers off 2 straight losses. New York has been effective on the road ATS this year and has had some success against the Bucs ATS. Jones may have some opportunities against Tampa Bay, as the Bucs’ pass defense, which has struggled all season, has been particularly poor in the last two games. They likely won’t have too much success against the run even if Barkley is back, as the Bucs are very successful against the run. Is Brady on a downward trend or will be bounce back with a vengeance in primetime and at home? Either is a possibility, although something of the latter is more likely. It is still not certain which of Brady’s targets will be returning from injury. Will the Buccaneers win this game? Most likely. Will they cover? I have my doubts. Look for the Giants to keep things close. Giants | |||||||
11-22-21 | Cal Poly +6 v. Nicholls State | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Cal Poly Slo/Nicholls State This is the Cal Poly Slo men's basketball program's lengthiest road trip in 51 years as the SoCal challenge continues. Cal Poly looks to snap a three-game slide, and that's noteworthy, as the Mustangs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a three games or longer losing streak. Nicholls State (3-2), had a three-game, season-opening win streak stopped with B2B road defeats at defending national champion Baylor (89-60) on Nov. 15th and TCU (63-50) on Nov. 1st. One player to keep your eyes on today is Alimamy Koroma, who is averaging 13.5 PPG this year. Note as well that Nicholls State is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the -5 to -7.5 points range vs. non-conference opponents. Grab the points. 8* Cal Poly Slo. | |||||||
11-21-21 | Coyotes v. Kings -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
After 7 straight wins, the Kings have now lost 3 in a row, and will be out for blood tonight against the not so wily Coyotes. The Coyotes won last night, but 2 wins in a row seems highly unlikely. Quick is likely in the net for the Kings, and is sporting a shiny .940 SV%. Vejmelka has been less impressive (.897) and has yet to win a game. Both teams are on back to backs. The Coyotes have very little offense, and for that matter, very little defense (32nd and 31st respectively). I like the Kings' chances enough to take them on the puck line, which makes them an underdog tonight. Take the Kings -1 1/2 | |||||||
11-21-21 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Chiefs | 9-19 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Have the Chiefs really turned things around? They crushed Las Vegas last week, but won in a very un-Chiefs-like manner against a rudderless Green Bay team in week 9. The Cowboys laid their own egg in Week 9 but bounced back in an equally convincing manner. The Chiefs are 2 /12 point favorites, but I can’t see them covering. So much is banking on Mahomes in this game. The Chiefs’ defense obviously played better last week, but the are still ranked 24th over all. While we aren’t talking league leaders here, there is no category that the Cowboys’ defense isn’t better by a considerable margin, in particular at forcing turnovers. Prescott has matched Mahomes in most categories, including average yards and has far fewer interceptions. As far as pass protection goes, Mahomes has been sacked 17 times, and hit 58 times. The Dallas QBs have been sacked 14 times and hit 40. Mahomes has the advantage as a scrambler, but the Cowboys have a pair of top rushing threats in Elliot and Pollard. KC’s top rusher is 45th ranked Williams. I don’t think this team is up to last years’ Chiefs, and t is going to take more than one convincing win to change my mind. So as the say in Missouri, “Show me”, and then I’ll back the Chiefs. Let’s not forget that ugly number of KC against the spread. 3 and 7! The Cowboys have the best offense in the league, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they stole this game. Take Dallas | |||||||
11-21-21 | Southern v. Nebraska -16.5 | Top | 59-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Southern/Nebraska Southern lost its second straight game in a heart-breaking 71-68 loss to South Dakota State this past Friday. While it won the turnover battle 17-13, it lost the rebound battle by a 37-27 margin. Jayden Saddler had 19 points in a losing cause for the Jaguars. Southern averages 66 PPG, while allowing 73.5. Nebraska averages 73.8 PPG, while allowing 69.2. The Cornhuskers enter off a 78-60 win over Idaho State. Keep your eyes on Bryce McGowens today, as he is averaging 16.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1 assist per game in the early going. The Huskers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five though vs. teams with losing records and 4-0 ATS in their last four against teams with losing road records. Southern has played decently, but I say this step up in competition will be too much for it to handle. Lay the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Nebraska. | |||||||
11-21-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Bills | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 55 h 58 m | Show | |
Colts vs Bills How Jonathon Taylor goes, so go the Colts. While Taylor has been outstanding, his biggest days have been against inferior run defenses. The Bills have been formidable against pass and run, among other things such as third down and red zone defense and interceptions. Not to mention QB pressure. If Taylor comes up short, it will be tough on Wentz, who can be pretty average or worse (as in last week), to take up the slack with the passing game. After an abysmal game in week 9, Allen and the Bills came out flying last week. Allen has been impressive other than week 9, with 100+ QB rankings in 6 of 7 games.The Colts pass defense has not impressed, with an average QBR allowed of close to 100 and a 23rd ranked pass yards average. And while it may come from several sources, the Bills running game is still 10th ranked, against a 17th ranked Colts rushing defense. Beating the 6-3 Bills at home would be a feat. Can the Colts cover? If Buffalo can control the running game, this one could be lopsided. Take the Bills to win and cover. | |||||||
11-20-21 | Wyoming +6 v. Utah State | Top | 44-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
Wyoming/Utah State This is a big game for 5-5 Wyoming, which needs one more win to become eligible. It does have another chance next weekend, but with nothing to lose here as it tries to score the upset, I do indeed expect the visiting side to keep this one close down the stretch. The Cowboys are led by a rushing offense that is ranked 47th in the nation. Xazavian Valladay has 797 passing yards and five TD's. Titus Swen has 549 rushing yards and four major scores. I say Utah State, which smashed SJSU 48-17 in its last game, gets caught complacent here. Logan Bonner has 25 TD's and ten INT's this year, but the Cowboys are adept at defending the pass. I expect the visiting to hang around late, so grab as many points as you can! 10* MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF YEAR on Wyoming. | |||||||
11-20-21 | Western Illinois +9.5 v. DePaul | 80-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Western Illinois/DePaul. A couple of 3-0 teams collide in this one and I expect it to be a real "nail biter." Western Illinois beat Iowa Wesleyan in its last outing, while DePaul held on for a three-point win over Rutgers in its last outing. Western Illinois does also have a nice quality win over Nebraska already as well. Will Caries led the team with 16 points, two assists and two steals in their most recent win. David Jones had 22 points and five boards for DePaul in its last outing against Rutgers. The Lumberjacks are 8-2 ATS in their last ten as a road favorite though. DePaul managed a win last time out despite getting out-played in several key categories. No outright, but closer than expected for sure. 8* MAULING on Western Illinois. | |||||||
11-20-21 | Heat v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Heat/Wizards Miami is off five straight covers and four straight victories. With two nights off before a game at Detroit though, I think the Heat come out cold here. Washington plays with revenge after a 112-97 loss at Miami just two nights ago (and that's sigificant to note as the Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in.) I think home court matters in this one for sure. The play is Washington. 10* PLAYBOOK on Washington. | |||||||
11-20-21 | Florida State +2.5 v. Boston College | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
FSU/BC Florida State has two more opportunities to become bowl eligible, while BC has already earned that at 6-4. That latest sixth win came last weekend in a 41-30 victory at Georgia Tech. FSU salvaged its season with a last second win over Miami at Tallahassee as well, as QB Jordan Travis has 274 yards passing, along with 62 yards rushing and two TD's. Eagles' QB Phil Jurkovec accounted for five TD's in his team's win last weekend, but I say an inevitable letdown is imminent here for the Eagles, who are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in their last outing. 8* HIGH-NOON BLOWOUT on FSU. | |||||||
11-19-21 | Bulls v. Nuggets -4 | 114-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
Bulls/Nuggets In my professional opinion, this is a great "spot bet." A great spot to bet the Nuggets here who come in off back-to-back losses, including last night's humbling 103-89 setback to Philadelphia. That's back-to-back losses for the Nuggets now after they had won four straight. With a tough two-game road trip at Phoenix and Portland this week, tonight's game takes on added importance to bounce back. The Bulls have been great this year. They've already exceeded my expectations. They looked impressive in taking out both the Clippers and Lakers to open up their road trip, but off a loss at Portland last time out, I think they're primed for another letdown here in the finale of their Western swing. Nikola Vucevic is out for the Bulls, to the advantage goes to Nikola Jokic tonight. The Nuggets are still 4-0 ATS in their last four at home, while the Bulls are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600. Lay the points. 8* PROFITS on Nuggets. | |||||||
11-19-21 | Arizona v. Washington State -14.5 | 18-44 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
Arizona/Washington State. Arizona is 1-9. It has nothing to play for here. Washington State is 5-5. It has everything to play for here, especially with a tough matchup in the Apple Cup at Washington next weekend. It's now or never for the Cougars to gain eligibility. They most recently fell 38-24 at Oregon. QB Jayden de Laura finished with 280 passing yards, two TD's and two INT's. I just can't see playing the role of spoiler being enough motivation for the Wildcats today. As Kramer once said to Jerry: "Stick a fork in them, they're done!" Arizona is off a 38-29 home loss to Utah. QB Will Plummer was decent with 223 yards passing and a TD. The Wildcats concede 29.5 PPG this year, while the Cougars allow 26. Washington State though is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 against teams with losing records. Arizon hasn't fared nearly as well for bettors in this spot though, going just 2-7 ATS in its last nine conference road games as an underdog in the +13.5 to +15.5 points range. Good news for WSU's defense today is that Arizona is averaging just 17.8 PPG over its last five. Lay the points. 8* PLAYBOOK on Washington State. | |||||||
11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7.5 | 25-0 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
Patriots/Falcons: Ryan and the Falcons stunk out the field last week, Ryan finishing with no touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a QB rating I can almost count on my fingers and toes. Jones was excellent last week, with his best game of his first year, but one game does not make him the reincarnate of Brady as some are suggesting. The Falcons at home and in the bright lights as well, are not going to want to be humiliated two weeks running. Ryan is a consummate professional and can’t play any worse than last week. I am looking for a bounceback from the Falcons, and maybe a slight fall off from a rookie QB and the Patriots. Don’t expect a win out of Atlanta but they’ll keep it close. Falcons +6.5 | |||||||
11-18-21 | Charlotte +4.5 v. Appalachian State | 67-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Charlotte/App State Charlotte is 2-0 and I think it'll take 2-1 App State down to the wire (at the very least!) Most recently the 49ers beat SC Upstate 76-64, while the Mountaineers hammered William Peace by a score of 98-49 in their last matchup. The 49ers are led by Jahmir Young, who averages 19.5 PPG, while the Mountaineers are led by James Lewis Jr., who scored 15 points in his team's latest blowout. App State though is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 90 or more points in its previous game. As for Charlotte, it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine after two or more straight ATS losses in a row. Grab the points. Charlotte. 8* SPECIAL. | |||||||
11-17-21 | Pelicans +8 v. Heat | 98-113 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
I don't think New Orleans will win this game straight up. If I did, I'd take it at +280. But I do think the Pels can keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Clearly Miami is the better team. It's loaded with talent. The Pelicans are still without their best player in Zion Williamson until the new year. If you want a complete break down of every player on both teams and their strengths and weaknesses, then I'd recommend heading over to ESPN for an update. I'm here to tell you why New Orleans is going to keep this one close! The Heat have covered in three straight, but with the surging Wizards coming to town tomorrow, I say they get caught "looking ahead." Grab the points, this one has all the makings of a nail-biter! 8* COACHES PLAY-BOOK Pelicans. | |||||||
11-17-21 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo +1.5 | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 1 m | Show | |
NIU/Buffalo. Buffalo has two chances to try and earn eligibility. NIU is 7-3. The Huskies can improve their berth with a win, but I think the more desperate home side steps up and delivers in this crucial moment. Buffalo is off a humbling 27-point loss to Miami Ohio. NIU posted a tight one-point win at home over Ball State for its seventh win of the year and I think it'll have a letdown here. Rocky Lombardi is in unchartered territory and I expect him to stumble. This is Kyle Vantrease's moment to step up. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a 24-points or greater SU/ATS loss in their previous outing. The outright is possible, but grab the points! 8* SPECIAL on Buffalo. | |||||||
11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH -15.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
Bowling Green/Miami Ohio. With a chance to earn bowl eligibility with a win today, I expect the Redhawks to not only win here today at home in this favorable matchup, but to do it in blowout style. Bowling Green is just 3-7 SU this year. It's a disproportianate 7-3 ATS though. Miami Ohio is 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. Bowling Green was just torched 49-17 at home by Toledo and I think it'll have a difficult time keeping pace here today as well as an even bigger underdog. Miami Ohio ran up thescore in last weekend's 48-18 win here at home over Buffalo as a 7-point favorite and all signs point to a duplicate game-plan here. 10* COACHES CORNER Miami Ohio. | |||||||
11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | 10-31 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
The 7-2 Rams face the home team 3-5 49ers. Both teams are off a loss; the Rams loss to the Titans particularly stung. Rams QB Stafford had a down game last week but he has been dominant this season with 8.89 yds per, and 23 Tds vs 6 interceptions. His opponent Garopollo has been ok for the season, and was decent in a losing cause last week, but his tenure is uncertain with the 49ers. The Rams lost Woods, which will hurt and add Beckam in some capacity and possibly Von Miller. The 49ers are also beaten up, missing their #2 running back, and other key pieces. The Rams have a pass-dominated offense, but can and may look to run the ball more this week. While the 49ers defense is strong against the pass, they are poor against the run. And while the 49ers don’t allow many passing yards, they still allow more than their share of passing TDs. The Rams defense protects well against the rush, but are average against the pass. They are very good defending in the red zone. Garopollo was sacked 5 times last week, which is not normal, but a disturbing trend. The Addition of Von Miller, if available adds to an already decent pass rush. The Rams have lost 4 straight against the 49ers. Off the loss last week, I like their chances to change that stat. The 49ers have lost 4 straight at home, and contrary to expectations, just don’t seem to have it together this season. Take the Rams to win and cover today | |||||||
11-15-21 | Suns v. Wolves +4 | Top | 99-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Suns/Wolves The Suns are 9-3 after their 115-89 win at Houston last night. With two upcoming home games against Dallas starting on Wednesday, followed by Denver and a four-game road trip, I think Phoenix finally stumbles here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Minnesota is off a 129-102 loss at the Clippers. The night before that they hammered the Lakers 107-83. Now the Wolves return home and I expect this healthy team to make a game of this one. Phoenix is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight in the second game of a B2B after holding its previous opponent to 95 or fewer points in the first. 10* GAME OF WEEK Minnesota. | |||||||
11-15-21 | Northwestern State v. SMU -21 | 48-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Northwestern State/SMU Northwestern State is 1-2 SU, but 3-0 ATS. SMU is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. The Demons beat lowly Champion Christian last time out by a score of 91-62. Kendal Coleman had 19 points and 11 boards. SMU enters off an 86-63 loss to a good Oregon team. Emmanual Bandoumel was good in a losing cause with 14 points, five boards and one assist. The Mustangs are the bigger and more athletic team. The Demons haven't faced any tough teams yet. This is a David vs. Goliath matchup, but in this version, Goliath stomps the underdog through the hardwood. 8* MID-MAJOR MAULING on SMU. | |||||||
11-14-21 | Bulls +4.5 v. Clippers | 100-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Bulls/Clippers The Bulls West-Coast opener didn't go so well in Golden State, but I think this young, deep and talented visiting side can bounce back here and before the face the Lakers tomorrow night in this building. This is the second game of a back-to-back for the Clippers, who pulled away for a win and cover against the Wolves last night. Fatigue is an issue now at this point of the season. LA is dealing with several injury issues as well. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a SU/ATS road loss in which they allowed 120 or more points in as well. I think the outright upset is in the cards. That said, let's grab the points. 8* SITUATIONAL COACHES CORNER on the Bulls. | |||||||
11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | 41-14 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
Anyone taking the Chiefs in this matchup is banking on a return to form from Mahomes. He has shown no sign of it, even in the win last week, throwing for only 166 yards, 1 TD, and 4.5 yds average. And it is not as if last week was a one-off. Carr wasn’t great last week either; while he threw for 260+ yards and a touchdown, he also threw two interceptions. He has allowed only five previous to that game. Carr can be explosive and has the highest pass yards average at 8.2 yds. To put this in context, Mahomes has been at 6.0 yds per completion since week 5. It is all about the passing game on Sunday; neither team has much of a running game, although the Raiders are improving. The Chiefs’ defense is lamentable, poor against the run and pass. They are 30th in passing yards per attempt average, and tied with Raiders at 28th against the run. The Raiders are solid against the pass (14th) and very good at limiting passing yards per (2nd). Where the Raiders really excel is in pressuring the QB. They are 6th in QB pressure and 2nd in QB hits. It could be a long evening for Mahomes and Chiefs’ offensive line. The Raiders have faced a ton of turmoil in the past weeks, but things should start to settle. Much is at stake in this game; I’m looking for Carr and the Raiders to put off-field issues behind them and cover if not win against the Chiefs. | |||||||
11-14-21 | Western Kentucky +1.5 v. South Carolina | 64-75 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
WKU/South Carolina Both teams are 1-1, but I like WKU to come out on top here. The Hilltoppers beat Alabama State, then it came up short against Minnesota. The Gamecocks enter off a tight loss to Princeton and I believe they'll struggle again here. After only scoring 23 points in the first half against the Golden Gophers, WKU made a game of it last time out, eventually falling 73-69. I think Davyion McKnight, who had 34 points, nine boards and four assists, and company will keep the momentum rolling here. South Carolina beat USC Upstate, but then lost 66-62 to Princeton. Off that 46 point second half, look for the Hilltoppers to keep that good times rolling. 8* MAULING on WKU. | |||||||
11-14-21 | Eagles v. Broncos -2.5 | 30-13 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 22 m | Show | |
The 3-6 Eagles are on the road against the 5-4 Broncos this week in what should be a close matchup. The Eagles running game has been very successful of late with three solid options, but the 8th ranked Broncos’ defense is much better than the Eagles’ last few opponents’. QB Hurts doesn’t throw for many yards, although he does contribute on the rush. Last week was one of his better outings, however he will face a very stiff Broncos pass defense. For the Broncos, Bridgewater has been solid and accurate, if slow off the mark. He has been sacked often; the Broncos’ offensive line has the injury bug. The Eagles pass rush really struggled last week with no sacks, and little QB pressure. If this continues, look for Bridgewater to have a solid game, and pick the Eagles apart.. The Broncos also have a decent running game of their own, with two viable options. The Eagles rush defense struggles, allowing 120 yards per game. The Broncos have a more balanced offense and a solid defense. They are tough to beat in Denver. Look for them to gut this one out. Some very favorable odds are available, so don’t wait on this one! | |||||||
11-14-21 | Saints v. Titans -3 | 21-23 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Saints/Titans The Titans, solid in their first game without Henry are home to the Saints who are without their starting QB and RB Kamara. Kamara is a huge part of the Saints’ rush and pass offense, and will be missed. The Saints did pick up RB Ingram, but he is not a complete replacement. Siemien played well in his two starts as backup QB, with 3 Tds and an 89.5 Qb rating. He has been well protected so far, but that may change this week. The Titans have been rough on passers, sacking the Rams Qb 5 times last week with 11 QB hits. The Saints will struggle to score points. Their passing attack is 31st rated; it and the run will both take a hit without Kamara. The Saints are a very well coached team, and have a highly ranked defense against the run. They don’t turn the ball over very much and are proficient at causing turnovers. They do not defend against the pass very well, so it may be time for Tannehill to step up the Titans’ passing game. Tannehill has been average this year, but seems to generate offense when needed. Tannehill has been sacked 27 times this season, but the 31st ranked Saints don’t muster much of a pass rush, He has been intercepted 8 times, so controlling turnovers will be a key on Sunday. The Titans defense is average against the run, better than the Saints against the pass, but where they excel is getting to the QB. The Titans have handled some potent offenses in their five game win streak; the Saints, missing key players, would not qualify in this category. Tennessee is a successful team at home, and have a lot of momentum at the moment. Some decent odds are available. Take the Titans to win and cover. | |||||||
11-13-21 | Wolves +6.5 v. Clippers | 102-129 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
Wolves/Clippers. I like the Wolves to keep the momentum rolling here after their big win over the Lakers last night. The Clippers are off a 112-109 win over Miami, but with a more high-profile nationally televised game against the Bulls here tomorrow night, I think the home side gets caught looking ahead. Minnesota broke a six-game slide in last night's 107-83 win here against the Lakers last night. Fatigue won't be an issue this early in the season. Note that the Wolves are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after a SU/ATS road victory in which they held their opponent to 90 points or fewer in as well. I won't call for the upset, but I think the confident Wolves take this one down to the wire again. 8* play on the Wolves. | |||||||
11-13-21 | Davidson v. San Francisco -7.5 | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
Davidson/San Fran. Davidson destroyed Delaware 93-71 at home on Tuesday, but I think it'll struggle to duplicate that success in this difficult road venue. The Dons smashed Prairie View A&M 92-76 on Thursday and they're now 2-0 SU. Davidson was 13-9 last year, but it lost its offensive heart in Kellan Grady to Kentucky. San Fran won't win the the conference, as it's in the same one as Gonzaga, but this is the best Dons team on the floor in years. They return four starters from last year and are led by Jamaree Bouyea, who had 24 points last time out. Look for the Wildcats to struggle on the road against this vastly improed Dons team. 8* MAULING on San Francisco. | |||||||
11-13-21 | Notre Dame v. Virginia +6 | Top | 28-3 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
Notre Dame/Virginia Both teams are eligible. Each is looking to improve its bowl berth now. An upset victory over the Irish would sure look good on the Cavs resume. While it's not out of the question obviously, I'm going to grab the points in a contest which I envision being decided in the final moments. The Irish have used three different QB's this season (Jack Coan, Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne.) The Notre Dame defense is elite as well. Last week it held Navy to 6 points. The Cavaliers won their sixth game of the year, then they came up short in last week's 66-49 loss to BYU on October 30th. They come out of their bye week having posted 48 or more points in three straight games. With a week off to prepare, I think UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall will have a good game-plan drawn up. As I said, I think the outright/upset is possible, but let's grab the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on UVA. | |||||||
11-13-21 | Mississippi State +5.5 v. Auburn | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
Mississippi State/Auburn Auburn is 6-3 and it's now bowl elgible. Mississippi State is just 5-4 though, so I expect it to fight tooth and nail today to also become eligible. Outright win is possible, but let's grab the points. The Bulldogs are off a tight 31-28 loss to Arkansas, while Auburn fell 20-3 to Texas A&M. Mississippi State has lost three straight in this series, so it'll be motivated to reverse that trend. The Bulldogs are led by dynamic QB Will Rogers (great name!), as he's completed nearly 75.2 percent of his passes. Auburn has struggled against the pass, which doesn't bode well facing a Mike Leach offense. The Tigers have been good under first-year head coach Bryan Harsin. RB Tank Bigsby is an offensive standout. Auburn though is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Mississippi State on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a conference road dog in the +4.5 to +6.5 points range. The Bulldogs have so far covered as a road underdog in both such instances this season and everything points to that trend continuing today. 8* SHOW-DOWN on Mississippi State. | |||||||
11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Wyoming/Boise State. Wyoming if 5-4. Boise State is 5-4. The Cowboys are just 1-4 in conference, while the Broncos are 3-2. The Cowboys kept their bowl hopes alive with a big 31-17 home win over Colorado State. I say they keep it rolling here. QB Levi Williams had 92 passing yards and two TDs. Boise State improved to one game over .500 last time out as well with a 40-14 road win at Fresno State, with QB Hank Bachmeier going 15 of 27 for 283 yards and a TD. Ultimately though in this crucial game, I tihnk it'll be the Cowboys' stout defensive play which keeps them in it late (concede only 21.3 PPG). Boise State is the better team, but I don't think by this many points. 10* PLAYBOOK on Wyoming. | |||||||
11-12-21 | Pistons +5 v. Cavs | Top | 78-98 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Pistons/Cavaliers. I've been impressed by the Cavaliers this year. They're 7-5 SU and they've won six straight against the spread. The recent loss of Colin Sexton is going to catch up to them though, and I firmly believe that'll be sooner, rather than later. The Cavs get caught looking ahead to their game here against Boston tomorrow night, while Detroit will look to take advantage. The Pistons have covered in two straight and they're off a big 112-104 outright win at Houston as 2.5-point underdogs last time out. This one sets up as a possible outright upset, but grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Pistons. | |||||||
11-12-21 | VMI +2 v. Presbyterian | Top | 72-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
VMI/Presbyterian The Blue Hose are 0-1, while the Keydets are 1-0. I think VMI is the correct call here. The Keydets smoked Carlow University in their opener, while Presbyterian fell to Clemson. The Keydets though are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, while teh Blue Hose are interesting 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Friday and just 1-5 ATS in their last six off an ATS victory. Outright is possible, but I'm grabbing the points. 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on VMI. | |||||||
11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
Ravens/Dolphins Much has been made of the Raven’s ability to dumb it down this season vs poorer teams; they ARE only 3-5 against the spread. Miami is worse ATS at 3-6, which is a point to consider. After being shelled last week with favorites failing to cover, the last thing I want to do is pick another favorite, but the Ravens and Jackson are too potent and explosive, and the Dolphins’ 30th ranked defense too poor to do otherwise. The Ravens defend poorly against the pass, but they will face a questionable Tagovailoa, with an injured throwing hand, or Brissett, who was hardly dominant last week. The Dolphins have no running game to speak about, and a struggling offensive line. Not to mention, a very high rate of turnovers. MvP candidate Lamar Jackson is a quality passer and a top ten rusher. The Ravens’ offense has surpassed 400 yds 4 times this season, and is more than capable of the “big plays”. And don’t forget their kicker, who can add three consistently from anywhere over center. With a damaged quarterback, the Dolphins may have to turn to the running game, and this is one area where the 23rd rated Ravens’ defense does excel. Take the Ravens to win and, yes, cover.. | |||||||
11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 12 m | Show |
UNC/Pittsburgh. UNC needs one more win to become eligible, but I think it'll come up short on the short week. The Tar Heels had fight from behind all day in last week's upset OT win at home over Wake Forest. Can anyone say "letdown" spot?! Pitt on the other hand is off a 54-29 win over Duke and I believe it's superior defense will prove to be the difference-maker today. The bottom line here is though, that this game doesn't in fact "mean more" to the Tar Heels. If Pitt wins out, then it'll earn a spot in the ACC Title game. The Panthers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game as well, while the Tar Heels are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten following a SU victory. Lay the points and expect a decisive result. 10* ACC GAME OF YEAR on Pittsburgh. | |||||||
11-11-21 | Raptors +2 v. 76ers | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Raptors/76ers I like Toronto to bounce back here after last night's 104-88 loss at Boston. The 76ers are ravaged by COVID right now and I expect the Raptors to quickly regroup here and to take advantage. The Raptors have performed well in this position by going 7-1 ATS in their last eight after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. I'm not buying into the "fatigue factor" this early in the season either. Philadelphia has lost two in a row, and with a six game Western road swing on deck after this, I expect it to go through the motions here as it prepares for that daunting trek. Look for the Raptors to deliver on Thursday night. 10* COACHES CORNER on Toronto. | |||||||
11-11-21 | Air Force v. South Dakota -9 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Air Force/South Dakota. The home side went 14-11 last year. The Falcons on the other hand won just five games last season, and they have almost an entirely new roster this year (AJ Walker is back, he averaged 15.3 points, 3.0 boards and 2.6 assists.) Overall the Falcons averaged only 58.7 PPG last year. South Dakota averaged 79 PPG, and this year it'll lean on A.J. Plitzuweit, who last year averaged 19.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. The Coyotes have four of their starters back this year. After going 0-4 in non-conference play last year, I think South Dakota comes in focussed here. Lay the points. 10* SPECIAL on South Dakota. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Jack Jones | $965 |
Ricky Tran | $708 |
Big Al McMordie | $662 |
Ross Benjamin | $640 |
Sean Murphy | $620 |
ProSportsPicks | $615 |
AAA Sports | $424 |
Nick Parsons | $306 |
Matt Fargo | $305 |
Dan Kaiser | $215 |