Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-10-21 | Florida Atlantic -2 v. New Mexico | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
FAU/New Mexico FAU finished 13-10 last year and it's looking for its third straight winning season under coach Dusty May. New Mexico was terrible last season, finishing 6-16. The Owls went 7-5 in Conf. USA play. There are two double-digit scoring options on FAU. The Owls put up 78.1 PPG last year. The Lobos have plenty of issues coming into the season. Offense was the biggest issue, as New Mexico averaged only 65.3 PPG. The Lobos were terrible last year and it's going to take some time for Pitino to gets things turned around. I like the Owls to lay the hammer down here in what will be a hostile environment. 10* Coaches Corner on FAU. | |||||||
11-10-21 | Hornets +4.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Hornets/Grizzlies. I'm expecting an all out war until the final horn. 10* PLAY-BOOK on Charlotte. The Hornets played a back-to-back at LA, losing badly to the Clippers, but then bouncing back with a much better effort in what turned out to be an unfortunate 126-123 OT loss to the Lakers. The Hornets have now lost five in a row (both SU and ATS), but I expect them, at the very least, to give the Grizz everything they can handle tonight. Memphis off a tiring 125-118 OT home win over the Wolves, so I believe fatigue is a factor here. Also note that it's a look-ahead spot with Phoenix coming to town next. I believe these teams are evenly matched on paper. That gives the advantage here to the "hungrier" team, which as I've clearly pointed out above, is the Hornets in my opinion. 10* Charlotte. | |||||||
11-10-21 | Ball State -2.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 53 m | Show |
Ball State/NIU NIU is bowl eligible at 6-3, while Ball State needs one more victory as it's just 5-4. I think this matters. I believe the more desperate team will find a way to victory this evening (and that hungrier tearm is definitely the Cardinals!) NIU lost 52-47 at Kent State last time out and I think it comes in exhausted here. Ball State is off a 31-25 win at Akron, but it can't be happy with the performance as the Cardinals were a 20-point favorite in that one. The Huskies are terrible defensively and the Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a road favorite in the -1.5 to -3.5 range. I'm laying the points, the play here is Ball State. | |||||||
11-09-21 | Miami-OH v. Georgia Tech -10.5 | 72-69 | Loss | -101 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
Miami Ohio/Georgia Tech. I like Georgia Tech to roll over its MAC opponent today. The Yellow Jackets finished 17-9 overall last year, including 11-6 in the ACC. GT returns five of its top seven scorers from last year. The Jackets warmed up for this game by hosting Morehouse in an exhibition contest on Oct. 31st, defeating the Maroon Tigers, 89-52. The Redhawks finished 12-11 overall and 9-8 in conference play. Miami will be improved, with nine of its ten players returning, but I still don't think it'll be enough here. Tech is too deep and I expect it to send an early statement on its own floor. Lay the points, the play is GT. | |||||||
11-09-21 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH -7 | Top | 18-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
Buffalo/Miami Ohio. Buffalo is 4-5. It's gone 2-3 in conference play. They're off a 56-44 loss to Bowling Green. Miami Ohio is also 4-5. Both teams need two more victories to become bowl eligible. The Redhawks though are 3-2 in conference play. Off an upset 35-33 loss to Ohio, I like Miami Ohio to get back on track here in this crucial and important matchup. The Bulls' offense revolves around RB Dylan Mcduffee, but their defense concedes 31.8 PPG. That's bad news facing the Redhawks, who have the 34th ranked passing attack in the country with 264 yards per game. Keep your eyes on QB Brett Gabbert, who already has 1,435 passing yards. Buffalo's defensive issues come back to haunt it again. Lay the points, the play is Miami Ohio. | |||||||
11-09-21 | Siena v. St Bonaventure -20 | Top | 47-75 | Win | 100 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
Siena/St. Bonaventure. Sienna was 12-5 last year, taking the reg. season co-championship in the MAAC, while St. Bonaventure easily won the A-10 and went on to play in the NCAA Tournament. Siena eventually lost 55-52 to Iona in the Conference Tournament semifinal. The Bonnies however also won the regular season title over VCU, and eventually fell 76-61 to LSU in the First Round. The Saints are just 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road. The Bonnies are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 at home. All five senior starters return for St. Bonaventure, so lay the points here! 10* Bonnies. | |||||||
11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers -7 | 27-29 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
Monday Night Football pits the Bears, off three losses, vs the Steelers, winners of three in a row. As the Steelers offensive line gels and the running game gains traction, Roethlisberger’s stock is on the rise once again. Last week he passed for 266 Yds, a TD and had a 98.4 QB rate. Rookie Najee Harris has showed remarkable improvement in his first season, and had 91 yards rushing last week. The Steelers broke the 100 yds mark three times in the last three games. The Steelers have allowed 14 sacks, and have only 7 turnovers. Last week was Rookie Justin Field’s best game, but he IS the 32nd rated QB, very inexperienced, and averaging just 123 ypg passing with 7 interceptions. The kid can run, last week for over 100 yds, but having been sacked 26 times already this season, it is probably out of self-preservation. The Bears are 6th in rushing yards, but overall their offense is as low as it gets. The Steelers defense is solid and improving. They are very strong in pressuring the passer, sacks, controlling the run and they don’t allow a ton of points against. The Bears’ defense has been uncharacteristically poor of late. In their 3 game skid, the Bears have allowed over 140 yds rushing per game, and had no sacks last week. The Steelers are at home, and are on a roll. It seems it is a favorites day for me, but I believe the Steelers will win and cover. | |||||||
11-07-21 | Titans v. Rams -7 | 28-16 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Titans/Rams The Rams are a 71/2 point favorite this week against the Titans. I have had my struggles this season with favorites covering, but here is one to trust. The loss of Titans’ running back Henry is inestimable, not just in replacing his yards (they can’t) but in the impact on Tannehill, the offensive line and the passing game. Without the threat of Henry, Tannehill, already sacked 24 times, will spend even more time on his butt, and a dimension of the now critical passing game is lost. The Titans are up against a very hot QB and team in the Rams. Stafford was terrific last week, has 22 TDs against 4 interceptions, and has a connection with Cooper Kupp that more than equals the Tannehill-Brown pairing. The Rams’ offensive line is best in the league allowing just 8 sacks, and very good at blocking for the run. And let us not forget that Henderson JR. is the seventh ranked rusher in the NFL. The Rams defense is the best in the league at sacking the QB, and good against the pass. It is not know if their huge addition, Von Miller, will play this week but it would be a huge boost. I am sure it will take the Titans some games to adjust to their Henry-less universe. Take the Rams to win and cover against the Titans this week. | |||||||
11-07-21 | Falcons v. Saints -6 | 27-25 | Loss | -123 | 70 h 42 m | Show | |
Falcons vs Saints The Saints are down a starting QB, the Falcons, their top receiver. This may impact the Falcons more, as the Falcons are an extremely pass-centric team, and Matt Ryan has few effective targets as it is. New Orleans will start Siemien at QB. He filled in very well by any standards last week. They likely will miss Winston but the Saints are not a very pass-focused offense. They have a solid running game around Kamara, and it just got a lot better with the deadline addition of Ingram. Ingram is a former Saint, and should fit in easily and well. This game pits the 27th and the 31st rated offenses in yards per game. With such low offensive yardage, Saints have a better record and score more points than might be expected considering these numbers. They are a very well coached team, and have the 4th ranked defense. They don’t turn the ball over very much and are proficient at causing turnovers. They are also 2nd in the league in defensive points scored, which is significant in low scoring games. Ryan is a competent QB, but with little support from his receivers, no running game and an ineffective offensive line, he is often left hung out to dry. And while the Atlanta defends well against the pass, they have the 26th rated defense against the run. I think the running game will be key in this match-up. Look for a solid performance from Kamara and co. and the New Orleans defense, in another low scoring game. Take the Saints to win and cover. | |||||||
11-06-21 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -4 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ Arkansas This is a big game for both teams, as each sits at 5-3. They each need one more win to become bowl eligible. However, I really do think that the home field will be a big advantage for the Razorbacks today. Mississippi State is off a 31-17 home win over Kentucky, but I think it'll stumble here on the road. Arkansas State won't be lacking for motivation here obviously, as it's just 1-3 and last in the SEC West. Arkansas pulled off the upset 21-14 last year over Ole Miss as a 16.5-point dog. Will Rogers was 36 of 39 for Ole Miss last weekend, but I'm not expecting lightning to strike twice for him this weekend. Arkansas comes in rested as well off its bye. The Razorbacks are 100% healthy and they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine when coming out of their bye week and playing at home. Look for Ole Miss to stumble off last week's big win and for the rested home side to pull away down the stretch. | |||||||
11-04-21 | Jets +10.5 v. Colts | 30-45 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
Jets/Colts The Jets were a great story in week seven. Worst knocks off first with the backup quarterback leading the way. They ought to make a movie.. White wasn’t just good; he ended with 400 passing yards and a very high pass completion rate. He was poised and conservative, with no passes over 15 yards. How will he do this week? The Colts’ pass rush is not overwhelming, with 16 sacks, and the defense has allowed 243 yds passing to date.. The Jets had huge and affirmative press this week, but was Week 8 just a one-off? This is the same Jets team that lost to the Patriots 54-13 the previous week, that has a running game of 75 yards a game, and 3.6 avg carry.i The Colts are off a loss, with Carson Wentz in the hot seat. Wentz had his worst performance of the year, and ended the game with some key errors in judgment. He was back to last year’s habit, throwing two interceptions. It is hard to know how he will respond, but he might want to check out White’s last week performance for some ideas. Wentz has been hit an astounding 61 times this season and sacked 16 times. The Jets pass rush is improving, but they are not a force at this moment. The Colts have the advantage of a very strong running game, with Jonathon Taylor leading the way. Taylor is also a very good pass target. Again, Wentz might want to rely more on the run, as the Jets are not effective in defending against the run. There is a ton of pressure on Wentz to perform this week, and no guarantees as to his response. On the other side, the Colts are forewarned about White. Any win will buoy up the Jets, and they must be riding high this week. I think the Jets will cover, but don’t expect an outright win.. | |||||||
11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs -10 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
Giants/Chiefs Before everything gets out of proportion, does anyone think that Mahomes will ever play as poorly as he did last week again? Even after last week’s debacle, the Chiefs still have the 3rd ranking offense. And yes they do have the fifth worst defense, but don’t forget that the Giants have the 27th rated defense AND the 20th ranked offense. So where has the Giants’ defense looked strong(er)? Not at applying pressure on the QB (29th) or QB hits (20th). They have created turnovers, but they are poor vs the run and barely average vs the pass. The Giants had 6 sacks last week, but that was not typical. Mahomes should have more protection this week, and perhaps the Chiefs will take the opportunity to try something different on Sunday, like step out with the running game. Jones has been a middle of the road but improving QB this year, and the Giants have their star running back and 2 top receivers out this week. Don’t look for a ton of points from the Giants, even against a struggling defense. The Chiefs are vulnerable, but I don’t think the Giants match up as a team that can exploit their weaknesses. Given his opportunity this week against the Giants, I am looking for the Mahomes and the Chiefs to bounce back. Take Kansas City to win and cover. | |||||||
10-31-21 | Cowboys -1 v. Vikings | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 102 h 19 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Vikings. Sunday night football will be well worth watching this week as the high-scoring Cowboys meet the improving Vikings. The Cowboys’ big concern is whether Prescott will play, but it appears he will. Both teams are off a bye, and both had wins in week 6. The Cowboys won in a mistake-filled game against the Patriots, with Prescott airing it out for seasonal best 445 yds. Prescott has been more than impressive this year with a QB rating of 115, and 16 TDs opposed to 4 interceptions. We will see how he does against a tough Minnesota pass rush. The Cowboys balance their offense with a very potent “a 1 and a 2” punch running game. Cousins was equally impressive in week 6, with 300 yds and 3 interceptions. Cousins has a QB rating of 105 for the season. The Vikings running game in the name of Dalvin Cook had a season-high yds total, and Cook looked in better health. The Vikings defense have a very good pass rush, causing low pass completion rates, with a very high number of sacks. Where they struggle is against the run, both in yards allowed, and average carry. This is concerning considering the Cowboys’ twin threats of Elliot and Pollard. While the Cowboys defense do not pressure opposing quarterbacks very effectively, and give up too many passing yards, they have caused a very high total of interceptions. They are also very good this year in shutting down the run. This is a very potent Cowboys offense that has managed to outscore any defensive miscues to this point, and their defense is much improved over last year. The Cowboys are 6-0 against the spread, and the Vikings are 3-3. I am looking for the Cowboys to go 7-0 ATS and to again win and cover. | |||||||
10-31-21 | Bengals -10.5 v. Jets | 31-34 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 5 m | Show | |
Bengals/Jets It would be a major upset for the Jets to cover against the a surprisingly good Bengals team, especially now with an inexperienced back up QB Mike White in the game. Last week, Burrow was impressive against a much better opponent, passing for more than 400 yds and 3 touchdowns. The Burrow to Chase connection has been a real eye-opener. Burrow’s only real negative is the number of interceptions he has thrown. The Bengals offensive line is improving, but allowed Burrow to be sack regularly in early games. The Jets’ pride is their pass rush. The Jets only hope of keeping the score down, other than Bengals complacency, is to take advantage the Bengals’ weak point, and pressure Burrow into committing more turnovers. To cover, the Jets will have to put points on the board and that does not look promising with an offense that doesn’t rush or pass well, against a Bengals’ defense that is strong vs both. The Jets are the only team with more interceptions allowed (11) than the Bengals. Bengals RB Mixon had an off game last week, but look for him to bounce back in a big way against the Jets. Bengals will win and cover against the Jets. | |||||||
10-30-21 | Duke v. Wake Forest -16.5 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 104 h 7 m | Show |
Duke @ Wake Forest Duke comes into this ACC Matchup with a 3-4 record. Last week, they got absolutely torched by UVA 48-0. That makes them now 0-8 their past 8 games played against opponents from this conference. On the road this year, the Blue Devils are a sad 0-3 ATS. They've also allowed 440+ yards per game from their opponents. The Demon Deaconds come into this game with a perfect 7-0 record. They are off a huge win against Army where they dropped 70 points on the scoreboard. Dating back a few seasons, Wake Forest is a dominant 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in October. QB Sam Hartman has been unbelievable this season as well. With 19 TDs and only 3INTs, while adding 4 more TDs on the ground, Wake couldn't be more happy. With Wake Forest having beaten UVA by 20, and Duke losing to them by 50, I expect no short of an annihilation this Saturday. Take the Demon Deacons. | |||||||
10-30-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State +4 | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Michigan @ Michigan State Two 7-0 teams collide on Saturday afternoon. This has all the feelings of a good old fashioned "slobber knocker." I think that the team that has possession of the football last is going to come out on top, it's seriously that close. And so, that definitely means that I'm going to grab the points and the determined home side. One thing benefitting MSU here is it comes out of its bye week. It's had an entire week off to prepare for this one. These teams are very similar on both sides of the ball. Their offenses for the most part revolve around the run game. MSU though is 5-1 ATS in its last six here against the Wolverines, while Michigan is interestingly 0-5 ATS in its last five against the East Division. There are more on the line that just bragging rights this season. Major implications for the College Football Playoff race and the Big Ten are on the line today. Everything points to, at the very least, a comfortable cover for the home side. The play is MSU. | |||||||
10-29-21 | Mavs v. Nuggets -2 | 75-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
Dallas Mavs @ Denver Nuggets Denver is just 2-2. It's definitely looking to rebound off a 122-110 loss at Utah two nights ago. Here's the perfect opponent and opportunity to do just that. Dallas is now 3-1 after last night's come from behind 104-99 home win over the Spurs. With a much easier home game against Sacramento up next, this sets up as a very real potential letdown spot for the visiting side. Denver's had two whole nights off to regroup and prepare for this one. The Nuggets hit the road for three straight as well after this, starting in Minnesota tomorrow night. That puts added importance onto this contest for the home side. Whether Joker plays or not for Denver, I think the well prepared and much hungrier home side is the correct call here. Kristaps Porzingis is not the players he once was. He's constantly injured and may not even play for Dallas tonight. Luka Doncic is unbelievable, but after shouldering the load last night, I say he comes in fatigued here. Look for the Nuggets to find a way to deliver here. The play is Denver. | |||||||
10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -6.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -106 | 37 h 37 m | Show | |
Thursday night Football pits the 6-1 Packers on the road vs the undefeated Cardinals. The Cardinals beat up on the lowly Texans last week. The Packers were not really as impressive in their win against Washington as the score might suggest. The Cardinals have faced much stiffer competition in their 7-0 run than Green Bay has faced. In addition, Green Bay is likely down their top pair of wide receivers, which was enough to drive up the line this week. The Cardinals are reasonably healthy. On paper, the Cardinals lead the Packers in all major offensive and defensive situations, including QB. 2nd rated Murray has completed a higher % passes for more yards and more points than 6th rated Aaron Rodgers. The only advantage Rodgers has in in interceptions allowed. And a lot of experience.. Quarterbacks aside, a key to this game will be whether the Packers’ defense can handle (or not) the Cardinal’s running game. The 23rd rated defense allowed 430 total yards against Washington, and have been very poor vs the run and in the red zone for much of the season. They have 18 sacks. The Cardinals defense has been solid against the pass, at least average against the run and has 19 sacks. I don’t think Rodgers can pull this one out of the hat; too many parts are missing and just too much competition this week. Take the Cardinals to win and cover. | |||||||
10-27-21 | Hornets -6 v. Magic | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic The Hornets have been pretty good in the early going. They're 3-1. That includes going 2-0 straight-up and against-the-spread on the road. The Magic have been pretty much garbage to open, as they're just 1-3. That includes going 0-1 SU/ATS at home. Off a tough 140-129 OT home loss to Boston, a game that they led most of the way, I expect this young and talented Hornets team to take out its frustrations on this young and rebuilding Magic side. Orlando was most recently torched 107-90 at Miami on Monday. A game at home is not what the doctor ordered either to get back on track for the Magic, who are a putrid 1-8-1 ATS in their last ten at home (also a disturbing 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 as an underdog.) The Hornets on the other hand are 38-12-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs a team with a winning percentage below .400. Everything is in place for a lop-sided road destruction for the Hornets. The play is Charlotte. | |||||||
10-25-21 | Saints -4 v. Seahawks | 13-10 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
The 3-2 Saints meet up with the 2-4 Seahawks in Seattle in the wind and the rain. The Saints offense has modest passing yards and good rushing stats, but they are a big bang for the buck in the scoring department. So far this season they have been exceptional in the red zone. Quarterback Jameis Winston is 5th in the league in QB ratings with 12 TDs against 3 interceptions. His passing yards have increased dramatically each week in his last 4 starts, from 111 yards to 279 yds in their last game. Where the Saints excel is on defense, especially against the run (3.3 yds avg, 79 yds/ game). While they may not have much of a pass rush, they defend well against the pass and in the red zone, and have 9 interceptions already. The Seahawks, ARW have Geno Smith at QB for the next weeks, a considerable step down. Without the mobility of Wilson, Smith was sacked 5 times behind a suspect Seahawks offensive line. The Seahawks have allowed a total of 18 sacks this season already. Smith was 15 of 18 last week with a turnover, but passing yards avg. was only 3.25 yards The Seahawks defense struggles against the run. Given the conditions on Monday night, a running game may be paramount. Collins ran for 101 yds last week, but overall the Saints have the edge, defensively and offensively. Collins is either playing injured or out at this point, so it could be Saints running back Kamara who steps out. I like the well-rested Saints in this game. Shop around and take New Orleans to win and cover. | |||||||
10-25-21 | Coyotes v. Panthers -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Coyotes/Panthers The Panthers are 5-0 and at home. They have a goals for/against rate of 24/8. With the 0-5 Coyotes you can roughly reverse that stat. Bobrovski is playing like a champ at 4-0, .942. Hutton has started two games and has a save % of around .700! The only area that Florida has struggled is on the power play. That may change tonight as the Coyotes’ PK is shockingly poor. My only concern is that the Panthers take this game seriously. Take the Panthers to win - 1.5. | |||||||
10-24-21 | Grizzlies +6 v. Lakers | 118-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
Memphis Grizzlies @ LA Lakers The Grizzlies are off a relatively simple 120-114 road win here over the Clippers just last night and I expect them to keep the momentum rolling here. If this were the end of the season, I'd likely avoid playing on a team in the second game of a back-to-back, but in this case, I don't expect fatigue to be an issue whatsoever. Instead, I think Ja Morant and the opportunistic Grizz are to send a statement by beating both LA teams on two straight night's in their own building. Morant had 28 points in last night's win, while De'Anthony Melton added 22 points on nine of 16 shooting. The Lakers have issues. They're 0-2, most recently falling 115-105 at home to the Suns. LA shot just 39 percent from the field in the setback. LA is also 0-4 ATS in its last four home games. I expect this one to come right down to the wire. As such, grab the points and the Grizzlies. | |||||||
10-24-21 | Colts +4 v. 49ers | 30-18 | Win | 100 | 38 h 56 m | Show | |
Colts/49ers The Colts are on an upward trend, thumping the Texans in week 6 and winning two of three games. Carson Wentz, recovered from ankle sprains, passed for 625 yards and 4 TDs in the last two games and has allowed one interception in 6 games. He has been extremely poised considering the pressure he has faced behind the Colts’ struggling offensive line, and is turning into a big play machine. RB Jonathon Taylor is turning heads with his recent play, and rushed for 145 yds against the Texans. The 49ers are average against the rush and the game is expected to be played in the mud so watch for another big game from Taylor. The Colts defense is strong against the run and good at creating turnovers, but they do not excel in defense against the pass, nor do they apply a lot of pressure on the passer. They face Garoppolo, who is returning from injury and has mobility issues. It would not be unfair to say Garoppolo has struggled in his last two games played. His completion rate is down, yards per attempt down. He has passed for 3 touchdowns in 2 games, and has two interceptions. The 49ers’ running game has been inconsistent, and in the bottom third of the NFL. They have had a bye week to sort out this side of the offense and the run will be important if field conditions are what is expected. They are 8th rated against the pass this year. I see the Colts and as the team with momentum. I like Wentz’s ability to handle pressure and control the game. The running game will be important on Sunday, and Indianapolis has a real edge there. Take the Colts to cover if not win. | |||||||
10-24-21 | Lions v. Rams -16 | 19-28 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Detroit Lions @ LA Rams Not only am I expecting the Rams to win today, I'm expecting them to win in absolute blowout fashion. In a contest which I envision being completely lop-sided in nature, I'm going to suggest laying the points with confidence in what I predict will be an absolute ATS blood-bath! The Lions are terrible. They're 0-6 and off a 34-11 home loss to the Bengals. QB Jared Goff was just 28 of 42 for 202 yards and an interception. Jamal Williams has been a bright spot for Detroit offensively, so far he has 255 yards on 69 rushes. Defensively though the Lions are horrible as well, entering allowing 28.7 PPG. The Rams are conceding 21.2. LA QB Matt Stafford will be out to bury his former team today. Keep your eyes on Cooper Kupp, who already has 635 receiving yards this year for the Rams. LA is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite, while Detroit is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a road underdog. I expect LA to have no mercy here as it keeps the pedal to the metal until the final whistle. The play is LA. | |||||||
10-24-21 | Panthers -3 v. Giants | 3-25 | Loss | -100 | 54 h 18 m | Show | |
Panthers/Giants Losers of three straight, the Panthers take on the 1-5 Giants on the road. The Panthers are still missing McCaffrey and it shows. Darnold was poor last week again, completing only 17 of 41 passes with one interception. On a positive note he did finish with a very fine drive to tie the game up. The Panthers haven’t run much since the loss of CMC, but with a sputtering pass-focused offense, this is expected to change. This would be a fine time to step it up as the Giants struggle against the run. The Carolina defense was uncharacteristically poor in week 6 allowing 4 TDs and giving up monster yardage. Let us hope that this is not the new norm. To date they are first in pass rush and have 16 sacks. A strong pass rush is bad news for the Giants, as their wounded offensive line has been brutal. If Darnold was poor, then Jones was worse, with 3 interceptions and a fumble. The Giants to date have an indifferent running attack. The Giants 25th rated defense showed itself, giving up four touchdowns as well, but this is not unexpected. They are very poor against pass as well as the run. What to expect in this matchup? Look for a better performance from the Panthers’ defense for one thing. With the amount of pressure that Carolina can bring, look for Jones to struggle again. I expect a better game form Darnold, with more protection. Take the Panthers to win and cover. | |||||||
10-23-21 | Dodgers v. Braves +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Braves (Anderson, 1-0) vs Dodgers (Buehler, 0-1) The Dodgers dodged a bullet in game 5 in a big way with a terrific performance from their bullpen. Today it is Buehler rather than Scherzer on the mound, and he is pitching on short rest. It is unlikely that his start will be of length today; his last two were only around 4 innings. Buehler has thrown well over 200 innings this year, and has not been as overpowering in the late season or in the post season as we have come to expect. The Dodgers got to Atlanta’s last starter, Fried. Can they do the same against Anderson? Anderson shut out the Brewers in the post season, but allowed 2 ER on three innings against the Dodgers in his last start. He is prone to poor first innings before settling into a game. He has been a much more successful pitcher at home. The Dodgers’ pen has performed well but the Braves have seen a lot of them. This game will likely be a similar situation. I wonder how long a tired bullpen can keep pulling rabbits out of the hat? The Braves’ bullpen is much better rested if not as highly rated. Both teams are very good against right handed pitching. The Braves are no doubt wondering if they are faced with a repeat of their previous post season meeting with the Dodgers. I am going out on a limb and saying it is not going to happen. Take the Braves +1 1/2 | |||||||
10-23-21 | Clemson v. Pittsburgh -3 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 15 m | Show | |
Clemson @ Pittsburgh I like Pittsburgh to keep the foot on the gas in this one. Clemson is 4-2 and 3-1 in the ACC, most recently coming off a tight 17-14 win against Syracuse, unable to cover the large spread. The Panthers are 5-1 and 2-0 in conference. They most recently beat Virginia Tech 28-7. DJ Uiagalelei passed for 181 yards and one touchdown in Clemson's win last weekend, but he now faces one of the best defenses he's ever played against. Pittsburgh has conceded just 35 points in its past three games and it hasn’t allowed more than 100 yards rushing in those contests. The Panthers are also 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Conference, while the Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road dog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range. I think Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett is the difference-maker in the end. Lay the points, the play is on Pittsburgh. | |||||||
10-23-21 | Cincinnati -28 v. Navy | 27-20 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
Cinci @ Navy Now 6-0 including a huge win against the Irish at South Bend, the Bearcats are looking like one of the best teams in the nation yet again this year. With 16 total TDs and only 2 INTs, QB Desmond Ridder is definitely in the MVP conversation. He's looking to build on that against a struggling Navy squad. To be completely honest, the Midshipmen have been awful. With a 1-5 record on the season, they are a miserable 1-10 in their last 11 games dating back to last season. Let's not forget in the last meeting against Cinci, Navy failed to even get on the board in the 42-0 loss (2018.) Expect the #2 team in the country to absolutely destroy this weak Navy team. The line might scare people off, but it won't be enough, I guarantee it. Take Cinci | |||||||
10-21-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | 2-11 | Loss | -158 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Braves (Fried, 1-0, 1.50) vs. Dodgers. Today’s play is an action play. Will it be third time lucky for Max Fried today? No one has been better than Fried lately. He has handled the Brewers and Dodgers successfully already and is operating on 5 days rest. He was 3-0 with an ERA of 1.90 in his last 7 regular season starts. Fried is a lefty which is an advantage when facing the Dodgers lineup. In fact, the Braves starter lineup is in good shape for its next trio of starts should they be necessary. The same cannot be said for the Dodgers. It is likely Knebel will start, but another bullpen day is in store. Knebel was solid in the regular season, but struggled against the Braves in two relief appearances. A bullpen day would not be such a concern had the Dodgers pen not been so heavily used of late, to the tune of more than 5 innings per game. It is unclear who will make up the bulk of today’s innings, and the over-usage and overexposure of the Dodgers’ relievers plays into the Braves’ hands. I am sure the Dodgers 2020 comeback is fixed in the Braves players’ minds. They will look to finish the series today, even knowing they have several chances. Today is their best opportunity to finish the Dodgers. The Braves team, peaking late in the series seem composed. Th mighty Dodgers do not. They have lost Turner, who was the Dodgers best hitter vs Fried this year. They are at home and still a favorite, but I am banking on Atlanta to finish this one today. Take the Braves +1 1/2.. | |||||||
10-19-21 | Warriors +5 v. Lakers | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 207 h 12 m | Show | |
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers These teams put together very different preseasons and I think their performances matter to open the season. Golden State went 5-0 and LA went 0-6. The Lakers have plenty of talent, but they'll be without the services of Trevor Ariza, Wayne Ellington, Malik Monk, Kendrick Nunn and Talen Horton-Tucker. The Warriors will be without the services of Jonathan Kuminga, Klay Thompson and James Wiseman. The preseason is not a good indicator of what will transpire in the regular season, but Golden State comes in with confidence and while it may struggle to post an outright upset, I do think this one will get decided in the final moments. Because of that, let's grab the points! The play is the Warriors. | |||||||
10-18-21 | Bills -6 v. Titans | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Bills vs Titans Off a blow-out over KC and 4 straight wins, The Bills appear to be more than a match for anyone. The Titans are 3-2, but have some key injuries, and will be banking on powerhouse Derrick Henry and the run again. How the Bills handle Henry will be a key today. They have been very good at controlling the run thus far. Last week aside, Tannehill has been very average, with low touchdown totals. The Titans offensive line has been picked apart, allowing a painful 25 sacks. Not to mention, the Bills have the best defense against the pass in the league. Jake Allen has been effective and efficient, with talk of MVP thrown around. He has passed for 12 touchdowns, with just 2 interceptions, and has run the ball very successfully. Add to this a balanced running attack, against a Titans defense that has struggled on the ground and in the air. This game is all Buffalo. Take the Bills to win and cover. | |||||||
10-17-21 | Cowboys -4 v. Patriots | 35-29 | Win | 100 | 100 h 12 m | Show | |
Cowboys vs Patriots The Cowboys are 4-1 this season and 5-0 against the spread. Are the Cowboys, finally, the real thing? Dak Prescott has the Dallas offense purring along with a fine balance between pass and run. 2nd in points scored, the Cowboys have out scored the Patriots by an almost 2 to 1 margin. The Cowboys are out-rushing the Patriots by more than a 2-1 margin, and while the Patriots’ overall defense has been steady, they are only 15th in defense against the run. Dallas is far superior with success in the red zone. New England, in victory, did not impress in Week 5. The Patriots just haven’t scored a lot of points this season. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones is inexperienced but improving, but with only 5 TDs so far. And while the Patriots have allowed 5 fewer points per game this season, Cowboys’ maligned defense has thrived is in creating turnovers. Diggs has more than an interception a game. Jones and the Patriots have been very poor at hanging on to the ball. This could be a significant factor in week 6. The Cowboys opened at -3 ½ . The line is climbing, and for good reason. Jump on this game early and take the Cowboys to cover. | |||||||
10-16-21 | Army +13 v. Wisconsin | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 133 h 5 m | Show | |
Army @ Wisconsin Army is 4-1 after losing to Ball State on the road by 12 points. I think the Black Knights can bounce back here though. Wisconsin enters at 2-3 after beating Illinois by 24 on the road. But despite stumbling last week, Army still averages 34.4 PPG. QB Christian Anderson has 431 rushing yrds and five touchdowns. The Badgers are coming off a shutout, but note that they're just 2-8 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS road shutout victory in which they scored 21 or more points in. QB Graham Mertz has 781 passing yards, but only two passing TD's. Wisconsin is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while the Black Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. The Badgers only average 19.6 PPG, while Army averages 20.8. I have a hard time seeing Wisconsin pulling away. Grab the points, the play is Army. | |||||||
10-16-21 | Liberty -32 v. UL-Monroe | 28-31 | Loss | -107 | 123 h 36 m | Show | |
Liberty @ UL Monroe This is a complete mismatch no matter how you look at it. Liberty comes into this game with only the one loss (5-1) against Syracuse, but they are 17-2 in thier last 19 games dating back to last season. Louisiana Monroe is only 2-6 in their last 6 games played at home. The Flames have limited opponents to only 164.5 passing yards per game, while UL Monroe has given up 466 total yards per game. Take Liberty and expect it to be one of the biggest blowouts of the day | |||||||
10-15-21 | San Diego State -9 v. San Jose State | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
Sd St @ Sj St Have you ever heard the story of David vs. Goliath? In that story, the underdog somehow manages to win against all odds. That's not going to be the case here today though in my opinion. SDSU is led by RB Greg Bell offensively. So far he has 94 rushes for 520 yards (5.5 yards per carry) with five TD's. I can't see SJSU mustering much off an offensive attack against SDSU, which concedes just 16.6 points per contest. The Spartans only allow 23.8 PPG, but their strength of schedule has to be questioned. This is one of the best offenses that SJSU has seen. And there's no question it's the best defense it's seen. Look for SDSU to pull away for a comfortable win and cover as this one comes down the stretch. ANNIHILATION on SDSU | |||||||
10-14-21 | Bucs -6.5 v. Eagles | 28-22 | Loss | -115 | 76 h 53 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles The Bucs are off back-to-back wins at the Patriots and over the Dolphins last weekend and I like the defending champs to keep the good times rolling again here. With ten days off after this before a game at home against Chicago, I expect Tom Brady to take advantage of this suspect Philly secondary. Jalen Hurts has shown plenty of promise and while he may go on to become the next Donovan McNabb, this is a huge step-up in competition for the rookie QB. I just don't trust Hurts on the national stage against the Super Bowl Champs. I think this Bucs' defense is underrated as well and I believe it's going to have a big day here against this young Philly offense. Lay the points and expect a blowout. GUNSLINGER on Tampa. | |||||||
10-11-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Giants (Wood) vs Dodgers (Scherzer) After a pummeling in Game 2, the Giants face Max Scherzer on the road. Scherzer has been almost unhittable since joining the Dodgers, with two exceptions; he allowed a run an inning, 10 total, in his last two starts of the regular season. In the wild card game, he lasted but 4 innings but still only gave up 1 run, although he was uncharacteristically wild. There is talk of a delivery issue in his mechanics being “solved”, and Scherzer is the consummate professional, so it is likely he will performwell today. Alex Wood starts for the Giants today. Confined by the Dodgers, his former team, to relief efforts in the post season last year, he will have something to prove. Since returning from Covid illness, Wood has been lights out, allowing only two runs over 13 innings in his last three starts. His arm should be well rested, and he was extremely effective in the postseason last year. Obviously these two teams are well matched. Both have very good bullpens, although the Giants’ was uncharacteristically poor in game 2. The Dodgers are a very good home team and have been dominant vs. left-handed pitchers. Home or away hasn’t much mattered to the Giants; they are equally effective in both situations. With Scherzer pitching, the Dodgers are a strong favorite, but is he completely right? I can't see the Giants, such a formidable team all year, rolling over here, and I am not convinced that Scherzer is completely right. Take the Giants + 1 1/2 today | |||||||
10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | 38-20 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 4 m | Show | |
Buffalo Bills @ KC Chiefs This is an important game for both teams, but I'd say much more to the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs though enter off a big 42-30 win at Philadelphia last weekend. Previous to that they lost two tough games agasint the Ravens and Chargers. Buffalo has been exceptional on both sides of the ball. It averages 33.5 PPG, while allowing 11.0, but that's definitely due to the level of competition its faced so far (a 35-0 win over Houston stands out obviously.) KC's defense has been its weak point to this point. But, I still like KC to dig deep here against a Buffalo side that's just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October. The Chiefs would have had this game circled on the calendar, and I expect Patrick Mahomes and company to deliver. The play is KC. | |||||||
10-10-21 | Giants v. Cowboys -7 | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
Giants vs. Cowboys Daniel Jones and the Giants face the 3-1 Dallas Cowboys in their second straight road game. The Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Dallas. Jones is coming off his best game of the season. His pass completion % is up considerably. In Week 4, he threw for 400 yds and 2 TDs. Jones has been turn-over prone, but hasn’t shown it thus far this season. Week 5 may be the game this changes. The Cowboys defense is 2nd in takeaways, and 1st in interceptions. The Giants aren’t healthy, and struggle against the pass and the run at the best of times. Pitted against a very balanced Cowboys’ offense will likely prove too much for the 1-3 Giants. Zak Prescott has had a stellar start, in full recovery from his ankle injury in week 5 of last year. This will be a bit of a hallmark game. This season, he has thrown 10 TDs with only 2 interceptions. The Giants lead the league in 1st downs, and have a potent, two pronged running game as well. Dallas is 4-0 ATS this season. Oh, and when you hear about the “improved” Dallas defense, it isn’t THAT much better. They still are 2nd worst in passing yards allowed. It won’t be a blow out, but look for the Cowboys to cover again against the Giants. Dallas to win -7. | |||||||
10-10-21 | Jets v. Falcons -2.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
NY Jets vs Atlanta Falcons We're back in London in Week 5 with the Jets taking on the Falcons. Many thought the #2 overall pick in the Draft would be a difference maker, but Zach Wilson has been the exact opposite so far. In 4 starts, Wilson only has 925 passing yards with 4TDs thrown while turning the ball over 10 times (8INTs 2Fumbles.) Not only has he been bad, but the team is even worse. Dating back to last season they've only won 3 of thier last 20 games. That's miserable. Atlanta comes into this one 1-3 as well, but they've definitely shown some promise. Matty Ice has thrown 8TDs with 3INTs so far and the rest of the offense has been decent. Although they are still solid, the Falcons will be missing superstar WR Calvin Ridley in this one. Look for rookie Kyle Pitts and Olamide Zaccheaus to have bigger roles in this one. Both teams are dealing with injuries and both teams aren't the best. I think this comes down to the two QB's here. Give me experience over an unconfident rookie anyday of the week. Take ATL | |||||||
10-09-21 | Michigan -2.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Michigan @ Nebraska Michigan is going to have a letdown, but it's not going to be this weekend. The Wolverines are 5-0, most recently coming off a 38-17 victory over Wisconsin. Nebraska is off a 56-7 win over Northwestern. The Wolverines won four straight at home though before hitting the road and defeating the Badgers last weekend. I just can't see the Huskers keeping pace with this high-flying Wolerines offense though that enters averaging 40.2 PPG. QB Cade McNamara has 731 yards passing and five TD's, while RB Blake Corum has 521 rushing yards and seven major scores on the ground. Michigan allows just 12.8 PPG, while Wisconsin concedes 15.5 Previous to last week's win, the Huskers had lost two straight. Wisconsin averages 32.2 PPG, led by Adrian Martinez who has 1,463 passing yards, six TD's and two INT's. Nebraska though is a poor 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Michigan faced the best rush defense in the nation last weekend and still posted over 100 yards. Go with the Wolverines here to pull away down the stretch. | |||||||
10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks +2 | 26-17 | Loss | -101 | 73 h 44 m | Show | |
LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Coming off a huge loss against the Cardinals on Sunday, LA looks to rebound against the always dangerous Seahawks. In all honesty, the Rams did not look good at all last week. The offense didn't looked their stringest and the defense seemed not like themselves. The Seahawks are off a much needed victory against the Niners last week. Wilson didn't put up the most insane numbers, but he got the job done. This is also a revenge game for Seattle as these are the guys that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Look for Metcalf to be hungrier than ever to figure out how to beat Ramsey's seconday. With the Seahawks at home in primetime, I think the crowd is going to be the difference in this one. Expect a highly competitive game throughout the entire thing, but for Seattle and the 12th man to come out on top. Take the Seahawks. | |||||||
10-07-21 | Coastal Carolina -19 v. Arkansas State | 52-20 | Win | 100 | 37 h 52 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State Coastal Carolina is averaging 48.2 PP, which ranks second in the natoin. Its strength is its run game which ranks fifth in the nation. Arkansas State just gave up over 500 rushing yards in its last game. Arkansas State has scored 67 points over its last two games, but it's conceded 100. In fact Arkansas State currently ranks the second-worst in the FBS in allowing 45.6 PPG. Each team's numbers are a bit skewed because of the level of competition it's faced, but regardless, we have essentially the No. 1 offense in the nation, going up against the worst defense in the country. This one is going to get ugly fast and I simply don't see Grayson McCall and this stable of CC RB's taking the foot off the gas, even if they have a huge lead. The Red Wolves are also just 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing 40 or more points in their previous game, while CC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine on the road. Lay the points, the play is Coastal Carolina. | |||||||
10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots I think perhaps one of the biggest public plays of the weekend will be the Tampa Bay Bucs, but I think that Mac Jones and New England will prove to be a tough opponent on Sunday night at home. Of course Brady wants to beat his old team badly, but his old team wants to beat him badly as well. Jones has struggled somewhat to begin the season, but he now faces a Bucs' defense which has for the most part struggled to contain teams this year. Brady struggled against the Rams aggressive pass rush last weekend and he'll now face a very similar attack here in his old stomping grounds as well. Other than the QB position, I say that New England likely has the better defense and special teams units, which makes these teams pretty much even in my books. Outright win? Sure, it's definitely possible. But why not grab up all these points?! New England Patriots is the play. | |||||||
10-03-21 | Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
Brewers (Anderson, 4-9, 4.26) vs Dodgers (Buehler, 15-4, 2.49) In their last game of the season, the Dodgers still can’t take their foot off the gas, and won’t know at game time what their fate will be. Buehler is on the mound, but I can’t see him go any longer than necessary. His September ERA has slipped to 5.40, and he has pitched more than 200 innings this year so fatigue may be a factor. Milwaukee is resting Peralta, and bringing in Anderson after just three days rest. Anderson is just three starts back from the IL, and has been lightly used but I can’t see him lasting long either. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been slightly worse than usual but still fine. The Brewers’ pen has been sub par of late, as has Milwaukee’s offense. The Brewers are likely in ‘don’t care ‘ mode at the moment . Yesterday’s game was a case in point. Burns lasted only 2 innings, and the Brewers turned the game over to recent pickup Colin Rea to finish. I like the Dodgers’ chances again today. The LA offense is hitting on all cylinders, the Brewers’ has been struggling. The Dodgers will be looking ahead but the Dodgers must stay focused. Take the Dodgers to win -1.5. | |||||||
10-03-21 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Eagles | Top | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 143 h 50 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles For one of the few times in Mahomes' career, the Chiefs have lost two straight games. Although two doesn't seem like much, they've been that dominant with him back there that they've never lost three straight with him at QB. KC also brings in a wicked 7-1 record in thier last 8 games against teams in the NFC. The Eagles haven't been any better than the Chiefs this season. Although they won week 1 with ease, two straight loses bring the, to 1-2 as well. They are brining in an awful 1-5 ATS in thier last 5 games against teams from the AFC. Philly is also 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. With Mahomes having never lost 3 straight in his professional career, I don't see that happening here against the struggling Eagles. Expect a huge bounce back performance from him, Travis Kelce, Tyrrek Hill and the entire Chiefs crew here today. Take KC. | |||||||
10-02-21 | Florida v. Kentucky +8 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
Florida @ Kentucky Florida is good, but that loss to Bama could come back to haunt them later in the year. Although being 3-1 this season, the Gators are only 3-4 in thier last 7 games. CB Kaiir Elam will most likely play, but he might be bothered by his knee a bit this game. He's their only guy who's forced an INT this season so far. Many may consider this Kentucky team a joke, but they are 4-0 for a reason. With wins over Mizzouri and South Carolina, the Wildcats are looking like one of their strongest groups in a long time. Dating back to last year, they've now won 6 straight games. Florida is definitely the favorites and everyone expects them to blow UK out. But don't underestimate the Wildcats. I expect a close hard/rough game this Saturday. Give me Kentucky. | |||||||
10-02-21 | UL-Monroe v. Coastal Carolina -33.5 | Top | 6-59 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina After getting dominated in week 1, UL Monroe has won two straight to get back in the bowl hunt. Although they are 2-1, they've been awful on the road. Dating back to last season, the Warhawks are a terrible 0-9 in their last 9 road games. they are also 1-8 in their last 9 games played against teams in their Conference (Sun Belt.) Coastal Carolina has been near perfect dating back to last season, with only the one loss. After last week's 53-3 win, the Chanticleers are a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 home games. I expect QB McCall to have anothe excellent game against this weak opponent. This is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball and the oddsmakers know it. The spread is big, but it's not big enough. Expect atleast a 40pt win for CCU. | |||||||
10-02-21 | Arkansas +18.5 v. Georgia | 0-37 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 17 m | Show | |
Arkansas @ Georgia Off a dominant win against the Texas A&M Aggies last weekend, the Razorbacks sure aren't getting the respect that they deserve yet. Being ranked #8 is a good spot for them. But +19 against a team that's ranked 6 spots ahead of them, C'mon. If you didn't watch last weekend, Arkansas absolutely crushed A&M. Georgia has been excellent don't get me wrong, but 19 points is way too much. The Bulldogs are dealing with injuries all over the place too. George Pickens, one of the best WRs in America is out (as we knew,) QB JT Daniels is still dealing with a back injury, big time LB Nolan Smith is probable, but he's been hurt with one of his legs, and big TE Darnaell Washington is Questionable with a foot injury. Both teams come in undefeated and only one will stay that way. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Razorbacks pulled this one off, but I'll gladly take them +19. | |||||||
10-01-21 | Houston +3.5 v. Tulsa | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 101 h 28 m | Show | |
Houston @ Tulsa Houston is 3-1 and Tulsa is 1-3. Off a 41-34 win over Arkansas State last week, I think the Golden Hurricane will take a step back here. The Cougars are coming off a 28-20 home win over Navy. Clayton Tune had 257 yards and a TD. Davis Brin had 355 yards, three TD's and a pick in his team's win over the Red Wolves. Houston's only conceding 16.3 PPG this year, while Tualsa is allowing 30.5. The road team has covered in eight of the past nine meetings, so I'm grabbing the points and rolling with Houston in this one. | |||||||
09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals -7.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
A pair of former #1 draft picks aside, my interest in this game is “Are the Bengals for real”. To start with, here is why the Jaguars are not. This is a team that has allowed 300+ passing yard per game and has led the league in turnovers. Outside of the hype, the Jags’ rookie quarterback is only three games into a pro career and it shows. A passing % of 54 and 7 interceptions does not cut it. In contrast, Joe Burrow has been more than steady with a 70+% pass completion rate, 7 TDs and 4 interceptions. Last week, the Bengals’ offensive line far outperformed the Steelers’. In terms of sacks, it was Bengals 4, Steelers 0. In week three, the Jags were leading into the third quarter. Lawrence burned one in the end zone and the Jaguars folded. It is rare for the Bengals to be a favorite AND in the limelight of TNF. I am looking for them to rise to the occasion this time. Take the Bengals to win and cover. | |||||||
09-27-21 | Royals v. Indians -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 111 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Royals (Kowar, 0-4, 11.45) vs Indians (Quantrill, 7-3, 2.82) The Indians’ fine young starter, Cal Quantrill is on the mound on Monday. Quantrill has pitched for length and ERA of late, and beat KC in a 1 run, 7+ start just last week. While he might not need much support, Cleveland’s relievers have been most sharp, with an ERA of 1.32 ERA in their last seven games. The same cannot be said of the Royals’ starter, Jackson Kowar, who has struggled badly in his last three starts, as his ERA would suggest. KC’s bullpen, likely called out early, is only average of late with a 4.42 ERA. I like Quantrill and the Indians in this game and so do the odds. The big question is are they worth the extra runs. KC has struggled to score runs lately with 6 of their 7 last games going under. The potential for Kowar to give up multiple runs is high. The usually light-hitting Indians have been better of late, and Quantrill has been lights out. For those of us who are adventuresome, lets go out on a limb and take the Indians to win -1.5. | |||||||
09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings Off a heartbreaking OT loss to Derrick Henry and the Titans, the Seahawks fall to 1-1. Despite losing, Russell Wilson has looked dominant in the first two games of the season. Tyler Lockett has been the main target so far, but I expect DK Metcalf to make some noise here today. Heartbreaking not only can describe the Hawks, but the Vikings have now seen two devastating losses. Week one against the Bengals in OT, and last week they missed a make-able field goal in the final seconds against the Cards to lose by a point. That takes a lot out of a team and I expect them to get jumped on from the opening kickoff. With both teams off a loss, this is basically a revenge game to get back on track. But that missed field goal for the Vikings is going to be too hard to come back from this week against a strong Seattle team. Take Seattle | |||||||
09-26-21 | Cardinals -1.5 v. Cubs | 4-2 | Win | 105 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Cardinals (Woodford, 3-3, 3.92) vs. Cubs (Thompson, 3-3, 3.40) The Cards last lost on September 6. Their pitching is not a surprise but their surprising offense is first in the MLB. All streaks must end, but it is not likely today. Youngster Jake Woodford is on the mound. Since being stretched out as a starter he has had good success, and while his starts are only 4 or 5 innings, his ERA is 3.38 in September. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been very sharp of late, to no-one’s surprise. Keegan Thompson is on the mound for the Cubs. He has only started a pair of time in each of August and September, and his starts have not lasted more than two innings. In his last 5+ innings, he has given up 7 runs. Thompson’s success aside, allowing the hard hitting Cards 7 innings access to the Cubs’ bullpen is not a recipe for success. The Cub’s relievers are heavily used and have a 7.67 collective ERA in their last 7 games. The total is tempting today but it is set very high. Take the Cardinals -1.5 today. | |||||||
09-25-21 | West Virginia +17 v. Oklahoma | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 52 h 43 m | Show |
West Virginia @ Oklahoma The Mountaineers are now 2-1 after a 27-21 win over then No. 15-ranked Virginia Tech. The Sooners are off a 23-16 victory over Nebraska as 22.5 point favorites. So far WVU is averaging 39 PPG, throwing for 271.3 and rushing for 139.7. QB Jarret Doege had 193 yards, two TD's and an INT last week. The Mountaineers have also been good defensively in conceding just 17 PPG. The Sooners may be 3-0, but I think they'll have a fight on their hands here today. Okalahoma is averaging 45.7 PPG, while allowing 17. Spencer Rattler had 214 yards and a TD in the Sooners victory last week. Oklahoma though is poor in this spot for bettors (3-8 ATS its last 11 after scorign 40 or more points in its previous game), while WVU has been good (5-1 ATS its last six games played in September.) I think the Sooners are susceptible defensively. Grab all these points, the play is West Virginia 10* BIG PLAY | |||||||
09-25-21 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Pirates (Crowe, 4-7, 5.77) vs Phillies (R. Suarez, 6-5, 1.60) The Phillies are 8-2 and will have to continue that at pace for any playoff hopes. They won against the Pirates on Friday and likely will again with Rangers Suarez on the mound. Lefty, Suarez has been as good as anyone since taking a starting role. He is very sharp at home and has only given up 5 runs in 17 innings in his last three starts. The Phillies’ bull pen, long a problem spot this season, has been sharp of late. Will Crowe’s last start was solid, but he has an ERA of 8.25 in three starts in September, so that one might have been an anomaly. His outings have been on the short side, and the Pirates’ pen has been heavily worked and below average of late. The Pirates are not a good road team nor do they fair well against left-handers. The Phillies are 6th in offense at the moment, and solid both at home and vs right-handers. Suarez is the much better pitcher. I like the Phillies in this game and so do the oddsmakers. Take the Phillies -1.5. | |||||||
09-25-21 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Texas | 35-70 | Loss | -109 | 44 h 9 m | Show | |
Texas Tech @ Texas The Longhorns are 2-1, while the Red Raiders are undefeated. To say this is a "revenge" game though would be an understatement for the Red Raiders here, as they've lost three in a row in this series, including a 63-56 OT thriller last year. Texas Tech hasn't played the stiffest of competition yet, but it's passed all early tests easily. In the most recent win over FIU, QB Tyler Shough had 399 yards passing and four touchdowns. Texas is off a 58-0 win over Rice. The previous week the Longhorns loast 40-21 to Arkansas. Texas took out its frustrations on Rice and rolled up 620 yards of offense. The Longhorns though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after posting a shutout win in their previous outing. I think his Red Raiders' offense can hang with Texas late (like last year!) Grab the points 8* SHOWDOWN | |||||||
09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans +8 | 24-9 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans Off back to back wins to open up the year, the Panthers are now one of the last 7 teams with an undefeated record. Having said that, they are battling some injuries. McCaffrey, who is going to play, is dealing with a minor calf injrury. Youngsters, Yetor Gross Matos and Troy Pride are going to miss this one though. Off a loss to the Browns, the Texans also saw their QB Tyrod Taylor get hurt. Now, the rookie Davis Mills steps in the starting role and looks to prove himself. They looked very sharp in week 1 and I believe that they'll bounce back in a huge way this week. Although Carolina is the better team, 8.5 points is a lot, considering Houston is the home team. I'll gladly take the points here. | |||||||
09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State -7 | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 3 m | Show | |
Marshall @ Appalachian State Off a tough loss to Eastern Carolina last weekend, Marshall now travels to North Carolina where they'll take on the always dangerous Mountaineers. Although they are 2-1, the Thundering Hurd are 1-2 ATS on the season, 1-4 dating back to last year. They've also lost 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. For Appalachian State, they've looked very sharp, despite losing a tough one to Miami. They are now a dominant 19-1 in thier last 20 games played at home. They are aksi 8-1 in their last 9 games against opponents from the Conference USA. Having said that, I think Marshall will be very shy/unconfident after that shocking loss last week. Expect the Mountaineers to jump all over that and make them pay. Take App State. | |||||||
09-22-21 | Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -139 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Orioles (Akin, 2-10, 6.93) vs Phillies (Wheeler, 14-9, 2.83) Just 2 games back of the Braves for top spot in their division, the Phillies need to take this series vs Baltimore to stay in the running. Their ace, Zack Wheeler is on the mound on Wednesday. Wheeler had a rough month in August, but it was probably fatigue. He has already pitched 200+ innings and had very long starts. In September, his starts seem to have been limited to around 6 innings and he has returned to form, allowing only 2 runs in three outings. Keegan Akin has had a dismal season and is worse on the road. He did pitch 6 scoreless innings against the Jays, only to be smacked around in the 7th. Otherwise, his latest starts have been short and poor. Both bullpens have been poor and overused, but the Orioles’ is most likely to have more work with Akin on the mound. It is hard to find a positive stat for the Orioles. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games and 25-52 away. They are 26-51 vs. right-handed pitching. The Phillies’ bats are very solid lately. They can struggle vs lefties but are better lately in this regard. With Wheeler on the mound, they are a huge favorite, but are worth the extra runs in this game. Take the Phillies -1.5. | |||||||
09-21-21 | Astros -1.5 v. Angels | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Astros (Urquidy, 7-3, 3.38) vs Angels (Naughton, 0-2, 4.32) Astros starter Jose Urquidy seems to have returned from a long stint on the IL unscathed. In is his third start back, he allowed 1 run over 6 innings. This bodes well for the play-off bound Astros. The Angels are not going to the playoffs and their young starter is hardly a household name. In three starts since a call-up, Packy Naughton has had 1 premium outing sandwiched by a couple of short poor ones. The Astros’ bats are very sharp right now so I don’t fancy his chances. The Angels’ bullpen has been effective lately. Their issue at the moment is scoring runs; they are in the bottom 10% in MLB offense. The Angels have had little luck against Urquidy this season, and are 46-54 against righties. The Astros offense is ticking over just fine, thank you very much. Their bullpen has been extra sharp of late with an ERA of 1.87 in their last 7 games. The A’s and Mariners are just close enough to keep them honest. It is no surprise that I favor the Astros or that they are a heavy favorite. Take the extra runs today. Astros to win -1.5. | |||||||
09-19-21 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens The Chiefs are 1-0 after coming from behind to knock off the Browns 33-29 at home in Week 1. The Browns had a half time lead and a ten-point lead going into the fourth-quarter, but Patrick Mahomes took over and KC now comes to Baltimore sitting at 1-0. The Ravens on the other hand looked bad in their 33-27 OT loss at Las Vegas, giving up a huge lead late to lose in extra time. These teams are loaded with offensive talent. Each struggled defensively in Week 1. Despite being on the road though, I say this one favors KC. The Ravens are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss, while KC is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after having 350-plus yards of offense in its previous outing. I think Baltimore continues to struggle. Lay the points. | |||||||
09-19-21 | Falcons v. Bucs -12.5 | 25-48 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Bucs Both teams have veteran quarterbacks. That's where the similarities stop. The Buccaneers are stacked. The Falcons are not. Tampa scored 31 against Dallas. Atlanta allowed 32 against Philadelphia. The Buccaneers limited Elliott and the Dallas running game in the opener. They're 6-0 ATS the last six times that they were off a game where they allowed 90 or fewer rushing yards. The Super Bowl champs play with some extra rest, due to their game having been played on a Thursday. The Falcons fell to 1-7 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread in their last eight September games. Last meeting was a 17-point Tampa win. Take the Bucs | |||||||
09-19-21 | Raiders v. Steelers -6 | 26-17 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers Off a "roller coaster ride" Monday Nighter in week 1, the Raiders will have to go up against one of the best, if not the best defenses in the league without thier star running back in Josh Jacobs. Vegas hasn't had much success against Pittsburgh either as they are only 1-4 in their last five games played on the road at Heinz Field. For the Steelers, they made Josh Alllen look human and took it to Buffalo in week 1. That win made them 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in the month of September. I expect RB Najee Harris to run right through this Raiders defense that is experiencing a lot of injuries as of late. Both off wins, both teams will be looking for that 2-0 start. But I believe that this stacked Steelers team will be too much to handle for the Raiders without Jacobs on Sunday. Take PITT. | |||||||
09-18-21 | White Sox -1.5 v. Rangers | 1-2 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
White Sox (Lynn, 10-4, 2.50) vs Rangers (Howard, 0-4, 7.09) It is out of the MLB frying pan and into the fire for the Rangers, losing 3 of 4 to the Astros, before facing the White Sox in Chicago. The Sox haven’t been their usual first-place selves of late at only 5-5, but they do have Lance Lynn on the mound on Saturday. Lynn missed a start, but came back just as ever, pitching five strong innings of 2 hit shut-out ball. He might be on a shorter leash as innings-count goes. He is backed by a very strong White Sox pen, with a 2.01 ERA in the last three weeks. Spenser Howard, the Rangers starter, is more of an opener/long relief pitcher, whether by plan or ineffectiveness. He has not had much of a season, as his ERA might suggest, and his outings are very short. It could be a long day for the Texas bullpen. The Rangers relievers are worse than usual in their last 7 games, at a collective 4.81 ERA. Texas has been light-hitting all season and at the moment, sits 26th in batting in MLB. They are 32 -40 at home and a remarkably poor 30-61 versus right-handers. This does not bode well against Lance Lynn. The White Sox are a decent road team, good vs right-handers, hitting just about as expected, and a very strong road favorite team. I like the White Sox in this situation. The are a heavy favorite but I think they are worth the extra runs today. Take the White Sox -1.5. | |||||||
09-18-21 | Arkansas State v. Washington -17 | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Arakansas State @ Washington Off a heartbreaking loss in Week 2 against Memphis, Arkansas St falls to 1-1. That makes them only 2-6 in their last 8 games dating back to last season. Even worse, they are only 1-7 L8 games played on the road. The Huskies have not looked good this season either. It's obvious that they are struggling. But, they've domianted the Sun Belt Conference in the past and I expect that to continue here. They are also 16-4 in their last 20 games played at home. While this will be a wet/rainy game in Washington, I believe that the bigger name school will show the country that they aren't the joke everyone thinks they are here. Also, look for TE Cade Otton to have a big game here. Take Washington. | |||||||
09-17-21 | Maryland -7.5 v. Illinois | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 11 m | Show | |
Maryland @ Illinois After upsetting Nebraska out of the gate, it seemed Illinois might be poised for a fast start. The Fighting Illini lost their next two games though. This is a team with a new coach essentially in a rebuilding year. The Illini are 1-5 ATS their last six games. The Terrapins beat West Virginia and then won their next game by a score of 62-0. No rebuilding for them. Their coach is in his third year here and they've got big plans for the season. In the only previous meeting, the Terrapins outgained Illinois by a 712-493 margin, crushing them 63-33. The Terrapins ran for more than 400 yards. That was in 2018 but 2021 looks like another big win. Lay the points with Maryland. | |||||||
09-17-21 | Cubs v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Cubs (Davies, 6-11, 5.40) vs Brewers (Houser, 9-6, 3.25) The Brewers are comfortably aligned for the post-season, with very good starting pitching and a very sharp bullpen. All they need now is to jump-start their recently sluggish bats. Today’s game might be that opportunity. The Cubs’ bats have been hot lately, but that hasn’t translated into wins. At 4-6, and 20 games out, they are just playing out the season at this point. Cubs starter, Zack Davies has been a workhorse this season and had a couple of quality starts in August, but has since struggled. He is 0-3 with an ERA of 7.76 in his last three starts. Supported, or not supported by a bullpen with an ERA of 6.00, pitching an unsustainable 4.25 innings per game of late, this does not bode well for their chances today. Add to this a 27-44 road record. Brewers starter Adrian Houser is on the mound today for the Brewers. Houser, a real success story for the Brewers, had a rough start three outings ago, but in his last two starts has given up 0 runs over 15 innings. He has had great support this season with a team record of 16-7 with him on the mound. I mentioned that the brewers’ pen was sharp. How does an ERA of 0.67 L7 sound? The Brewers are a solid home team and 71-42 vs right-handers. The odds for the Brewers are very favorable.Take the Brewers, - 1 1/2. They are worth the extra runs today. | |||||||
09-12-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Indians | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Brewers (Lauer, 5-5,3.18) vs. Indians (Civale, 10-3, 3.25) At 7-3 in their last 10, and now well ahead in the NL Central, the Brewers are in a good place. Eric Lauer is starting on Sunday and he has been in a good place as well. He is 2-1 with an ERA of 2.06 in his last 7 outings and has only allowed 1 run over 14 innings in his last pair of starts. His mound opponent, Aaron Civale is back with his 2nd start after a lengthy absence on the DL. He was very sharp before injury and was effective in his first start back. Don’t look for a long outing from him at this point. Lauer’s ability to pitch late into the game is important as the Brewer’s bullpen is an eye-popping 7.77 in their last 7 starts. This figure is somewhat skewed by two terrible efforts; most of their last games have been acceptable. The Indians’ usually stingy bullpen has been worse than usual, at 4.50 ERA. The Brewers have not put themselves well into first place with their run production. They are middle of the pack usually, and slightly better in the last two weeks. The Indians, also relatively light hitting, have the worst offense in the league of late. The Brewers are a very dominant road and road underdog team, and solid vs right-handers. The Indians are only 4-13 as a home underdog. Civale should pitch well on Sunday but his innings will likely be limited. I like Milwaukee’s chances and considering Cleveland’s struggling offense, I think it is safe to give the extra runs. Take the Brewers -1.5. | |||||||
09-12-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Colts | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 317 h 23 m | Show | |
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts Off a wildcard loss to theur divisional rival Rams, the Seahawks are coming back stronger than ever this season. Always dangerous Russell Wilson threw for 40+ TDs last season as well as rushing for a few. This year, look for Metcalf and Lockett to both reach the 1000 yard mark once again. The Colts have been all over the place this offseason. Trading for Carson Wentz. Wentz then gets hurt and has to go through surgery. Not only that, but when he was at the end of his recovery he tested positive for Covid. Even through all of that, he was named starter and I expect him to be a bit rusty in this one. Don't forget, offensvie lineman Quenton Nelson also had to undergo surgery this offseason. The Colts are also a terrible 0-7 in their L7 games played in Week 1. Having said all that, the Seahawks are by far the healthier team and I expect another great season from them. Look for them to involve Chris Carson a lot this season as well. Take the Seahawks +2.5 with ease. | |||||||
09-11-21 | Western Kentucky v. Army -6.5 | 35-38 | Loss | -116 | 100 h 18 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky @ Army Western Kentucky comes into this game off a week 1 win against a not so good Tennessee-Martin team. The Hiltoppers may have won that game, but I expect a completely different outcome here. The Hilltoppers are only 2-9-1 ATS in their L12 games played on Saturday. The Black Nights looked absolutely dominant in week 1 against Georgia State (as an underdog) making it look easy. Army only threw the ball 4 times total, but when you can run the ball 67 times and average 4 yards per carry it's going to be tough for any team to compete against that. Army is also a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games played at home. Although both teams are off a win, the Black Nights looked like they could beat some of the best teams in the league with their unique play-style. Look for Army to dominate from the opening kickoff. Tale Army | |||||||
09-10-21 | Reds v. Cardinals +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Reds (Mahle, 11-5, 3.76) vs. Cards (Lester, 5-6, 4.89) At 3-7 in their last 10, The Reds are in real danger of playing themselves out of contention, and have given the Cards some slight hope for their own play-off aspirations. This series is critical for both teams. Mahle has been consistent for the Reds. His last start was substandard, and he is known for the odd poor outing but for most of the season he has delivered. He is 1-1 in his last 3 games and regularly pitches into the 6th. He is 7-2 with an ERA of 1.90 on the road. The Cards Jon Lester is not the pitcher he once was, but a change of scenery seems to have done him a world of good. In 4 of 5 of his last starts with St. Louis, he has allowed only I ER per game. His last outing against the Reds was a 3-1 effort. The Reds’ misfortunes lately can’t just be blamed on their struggling bullpen. Their offense is down considerably in average and run production. In fact, the relatively light-hitting Cards are outperforming them in recent weeks. The Cards’ bullpen is 3.51 in their last seven, which is much better than usual. I have lost on Lester this year but his recent performance has been eye-opening. Between the Reds’ power outage and lackluster bullpen,I am wagering on the underdog Cardinals today, I think they may require the extra runs. Take the Cards + 1 ½. | |||||||
09-10-21 | Kansas v. Coastal Carolina -25 | 22-49 | Win | 100 | 84 h 25 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Coastal Carolina What? A team from the Sun Belt laying this many points against a Big 12 team? It must be some kind of joke. That's the reaction some might have if they didn't know the real story. Kansas isn't just any Big 12 team. The Jayhawks are the single worst Big 12 team. Coastal Carolina isn't just any Sun Belt team. The Chanticleers are the best SBC team. They won 11 games last year and brought back 19 starters. Week 1 saw them deliver a 52-14 blowout. The Jayhawks kept things reasonably close against Coastal Carolina the past two years. This is the first time they meet in Conway though and its going to get ugly. Lay the points with Coastal Carolina. | |||||||
09-09-21 | Cowboys +8 v. Bucs | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 61 h 12 m | Show | |
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Cowboys are a different team with Prescott behind center. They can trade punches with any team on offense, even the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Buccaneers were clearly peaking at the right time in January/February. We're into September now. They can't be expected to immediately perform at the level they were. It's possible that one team could pull away late in the second half but I expect this game to remain close most of the way. The line is generous. Take the points with the Cowboys (1st Half) | |||||||
09-07-21 | Nationals v. Braves -1.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Nationals (Espino, 4-4, 4.08) vs. Braves (Fried, 11-7, 3.51) Atlanta was swept by the Dodgers, lost two of three vs the Rockies and has seen their momentum evaporate. Back home and with an offday, they will be looking to regroup and get back to the win column. The Nationals won in the ninth on Monday, (much to my surprise and dismay) but are only 2-8 in their last 10 games. Paulo Espino starts for the Nationals. He was very sharp in his starts mid season, but has slipped slightly in August with a record of 1-2, 7.45 ERA. Espino’s starts are 4 to 5 innings only, which leaves too much time with the Nationals’ sub-par bullpen (6.68 era/last 7) to win very many games. The Nationals are only 5-9 when Espino starts. His mound opponent, Max Fried, has delivered in all categories this year. In his last 7 games he is 4-1 with a shining 1.76 ERA. He has only allowed 5 runs over 21 innings in his last 3 starts. The Braves’ relievers have also been very good lately. Washington is 24- 41 on the road, 16-26 against left-handed pitching, and will be a significant underdog on Tuesday. I think between Fried, Espino’s short starts and the Nationals’ poor relievers, Atlanta will be good for the extra runs. Take the Braves to win – 1.5. | |||||||
09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss -9 | 24-43 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Louisville vs. Ole Miss The underdog came back to cover in last night's game. The Rebels will make sure it doesn't happen twice in a row. The Cardinals aren't a bad team. The problem is that Ole Miss is a lot better than they even realize. The Rebels were tied 42-42 in a game against Alabama last season and they return 17 starters from that team. The offense is among the best in the country and the defense will be much better than last year. The Rebels are 13-5 last 18, against the spread in neutral site games. Last time they opened the season at a neutral site, they beat Texas Tech 47-27. This one should play out similarly. Lay the points with Ole Miss. | |||||||
09-05-21 | Twins v. Rays -1.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 17 m | Show | |
Twins (Jax, 3-3, 6.71) vs. Rays (Patino, 4-3, 4.24) This season has been a trial for Griffin Jax and the Twins. Jax has given up a lot of runs in his last three starts, has been poor away, and has an ERA of 7.0 in August. Youngster Luis Patino has fared better. He has had some quality starts and is pulled early when struggling. He has been very sharp at home and in day games this season. The Twins have a decent offense but have given up a ton of runs this season. Tampa has the most potent offense in the league, feast on the right, are 63-31 as a favorite and of course, a huge favorite today. Looking at the spread, Jax has given up 17 runs in his last three starts, and is often left in a game longer than is wise. While the Twins’ pen has been good lately, it has not been dependable over the season. Patino has not given up more than 2 runs in his last three starts, and is seldom hung out to dry. Take the Rays -1.5 today. | |||||||
09-04-21 | Northwestern State v. North Texas -20 | 14-44 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
Northwestern State @ North Texas Big class difference between these schools, as evidenced by the pointspread. North Texas has a big game at SMU next and will use this game to build confidence for that one. They haven't won at SMU since 1933 but with an experienced team, this could be the year they have a shot. Blowing out Northwestern State will help prepare for that possibility. Mean Green bring back 19 starters, 9 on offense, 10 on defense. Those 19 returning players began last year with a 57-31 beating of another outmatched team. Coach Littrell is 5-0 in his games against FCS schools, winning by nearly 30 points per game. Lay the points with North Texas. | |||||||
09-04-21 | Penn State +5.5 v. Wisconsin | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Wisconsin Two quality teams here, making this a very big game. Wisconsin has plans to win the West. Penn State hopes to challenge Ohio State in the East. The Nittany Lions outgained Big Ten opponents by +102 yards per game last season and they're going to be better this year. Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS their last four and 6-1 ATS their last seven in September. Badgers are 1-4 ATS last five overall, 0-4 ATS last four Big Ten games. Wisconsin is always tough but Penn State has still won the last four meetings. Three were decided by 7 or less. Grab the points with Penn St. | |||||||
09-03-21 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Brewers | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Cardinals (Wainwright, 13-7, 2.97) /Brewers F. Peralta, 9-3, 2.45) Two premier starters face each other on Friday. The Cards’ Adam Wainwright at aged 40 is pitching as well as he ever has. He is 6-2 on the road and has given up 2 earned runs in 21 innings pitched over his last three starts. He is very good against right handed batters. It is Freddy Peralta for the Brewers on Friday. Peralta’s stats are excellent for the year, but he has been on the disabled list for a couple of weeks and this will be his first game back. His outings are shorter, around five innings, but he has the support of the Brewers’ bullpen which has been very good, if well used lately. The Cardinals’ bullpen, usually dependable, has been poor in their last 7 games, but when Wainwright is on his game, he hasn’t needed much relief. There is no doubt that the Brewers have the superior offense, but I am riding on Wainwright and the Cards. After a few weeks absence it may take Peralta a few innings to settle in and Wainwright has been almost unhittable lately. Cards are a pretty good underdog, so take the Cards +1 ½. If you are feeling bold, well then it is up to you. | |||||||
09-03-21 | Old Dominion v. Wake Forest -32.5 | 10-42 | Loss | -109 | 633 h 27 m | Show | |
Old Dominion Monarchs @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons The Monarchs haven't played a game since 2019 and in that season, they were an awful 1-11, including losing each of their last 10. Because of their year off, they have lost some key players and will lack experience out there this campaign. Even the coach is new and hasn't coached a single NCAAFB game as HC in his life. Entering this game against the Demon Deacons, the Monarchs are a sad 1-5 ATS in their L6 week 1 games. Expect another dreadful year from there guys. Wake Forest is bringing back 20 of thier 22 starters from last season, including every offensive starter. Although they ended the season 4-5, they beat teams like Virginia Tech on the road when they were ranked #19th in the country. Dating back to 2019, the Demon Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home in their last 6 games. This year I expect a much stronger group of guys with much more experience to bring home a bowl game. With Wake Forest as the much better team, I expect a blowout here in North Carolina. -32 is a lot, but this one should be easier than people think. Take the Demon Deacons! | |||||||
09-02-21 | East Carolina v. Appalachian State -9.5 | Top | 19-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
East Carolina vs. Appalachian State The Mountaineers are loaded on both sides of the ball. Appalachian State averaged better than 34 points last season, as well as more than 450 yards. Many of the skill players that put up those numbers are back. The secondary was already the best in the Sun Belt and the Mountaineers bring back 10 defensive starters. The Pirates are a bad defensive team. They will have trouble stopping the balanced Mountaineer attack. Thursday night football has not been kind to ECU. The Pirates are 5-12 ATS their last 17 Thursday games. They are also 4-11 ATS their last 15 outside of their own conference. The Mountaineers are better on both sides of the ball. They won't be stopped in this one. Lay the points with Appalachian State. | |||||||
08-30-21 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Astros (Garcia: 10-6, 3.21) vs Mariners (Flexen: 11-5) The Mariners, 5 -5 in their last 10 starts have lost ground against the Astros. They need wins against the hard hitting Houston club, and Flexen is their most likely candidate. He has allowed 4 runs in his last 3 games while averaging just under 7 innings pitched. He is very good at home. He is supported by a Seattle bullpen that is generally good but lights out in their last 7 games. The Astros’ starter, Luis Garcia has been equally effective in his last three starts, allowing 5 runs total in 16+ innings pitched. If he has struggled this year, it was on the road. While he is supported by the vaunted Houston hitters, the Astros relievers have not been dependable, to a tune of 7.55 ERA in their last 7 games. It is hard to fault the Astros offense. They score more runs and have much higher OB% than the Mariners. They are dominant vs. right-handed pitching. The Mariners haven’t the same offense, but are a very good home team. Their home underdog record of 13-7 is significant. I favor Flexen and the Mariners, but they will need the extra runs. Take Seattle +1.5. | |||||||
08-30-21 | Phillies v. Nationals +1.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Phillies (Wheeler:10-9, 2.90) vs Nationals (Jos. Gray: 0-1 3.75) The Phillies off a win, have been sub-par and losing ground against the Braves. Zach Wheeler, once a sure thing for a quality start, has struggled in August at 0-3, and has allowed 15 runs in 20 innings.. Rookie Josiah Gray is on the mound for the Nationals. As far as shades of Gray, there has really been only one on view in his last 7 starts and that is Bright. He has worked his way up to 6 innings per game and has allowed only two runs in each of his last three starts. He held the Phillies to 1 run over 5 innings when he faced them at the beginning of August, Washington gutted their bullpen, but theirs has been outperforming the Phillies’ at least in their last 7 games. The Nationals are significantly better in all batting categories than the Phillies. They have done well against Wheeler in past meetings. They do not have much of a home record. The Phillies are 27- 36 on the road but have a solid record against right-handed batters. I favor Gray and the underdog Nationals against Wheeler and the Phillies. Wheeler just hasn’t been himself since his 9 inning shutout five starts back, and Gray is a comer. Take the Nationals +1.5. | |||||||
08-28-21 | UTEP -9 v. New Mexico State | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 324 h 58 m | Show | |
UTEP Miners @ New Mexico State Aggies Although having a rough 3-5 2020 campaign, the Miners have high expectations for this season. With every offensive starter returning, they'll have all the chemistry in the world. Dating back to last season, UTEP is 4-1 ATS thier L5 games AND, going back even further, they are 4-2 SU in their L6 games played in August. In the past, Texas El Paso has owned this series as they are a dominant 8-3 the past 11 games against the Aggies. New Mexico State is coming off a 2020 where they played 0 games. They did play 2 spring games this year though and that might of helped a little bit. But the Aggies are returning just 3 of 22 starters from 2019 and I expect that to be a problem this season. In the 2 games this spring QB Jonah Johnson only threw for 358 yards, with 1TD and 3INTs. They did have some success running the ball but I believe that UTEP will be able to shut that down for most of the game. NMSU is also a sad 0-6 in their last 6 season openers. Having said all that, the Miners are the far better side and has played with each other for a long time. I expect a dominant win here for them. Take UTEP with ease. | |||||||
08-24-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. A's | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Mariners (Flexen) vs. A’s (Irvin) At 7-3 in their last ten games and the Athletics the opposite, the Mariners are reeling in the A’s. This is a critical series if either team is to make a run for the postseason. Both Flexen (10-5, 3.65) and Irvin (9-11, 3.57) have been effective starters for their clubs. Flexen had some success vs Oakland the last time he faced them, allowing 2 runs over 6 innings. He is a good road pitcher, with a 2.20 ERA in his last 4 starts. Irvin has been equally sharp. Over his last three starts he has averaged 6 innings per outing and given up 8 earned runs. Irwin is 0-2 against the Mariners this year, allowing 4 run in each start. Oakland is a middling hitting team, and relies on starting pitching and pen for success. Right now their bullpen is struggling and their record with it. It is hard to get a read on the Mariners at the moment. They have had some wild losses but not involving Flexen. They have had success against Irwin. Their bullpen has also struggled considerably of late. Based on Flexen’s past results and the A’s woes of late, I am wagering on Seattle in this game. They may need the extra runs, so take the Mariners + 1.5 today. | |||||||
08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints -4 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints It's great to have some Monday night football. Much of the buzz around tonight's game surrounds Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Exciting, yes. Keep in mind that the #1 pick will be facing a formidable Saints defense though. New Orleans ranked in the top five of most defensive categories last year. Lawrence should get the Week 1 start for Jacksonville. The Saints have a QB controversy of their own though. Hill and Winston both have their eyes on the job. Both are going to be going all out tonight. Expect them to enjoy success on offense. The Saints turned the ball over six times in Week 1. That's not going to happen again. Peyton will make sure of it. He's not going to want Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer to stroll into his team's home and beat them either. Preseason or not. The number is reasonable. I'm laying the points with the Saints on Monday night. | |||||||
08-21-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 127 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
Diamondbacks (Gallen) vs Rockies (Freeland) Here are two underachieving teams who have made good recently. Arizona and Colorado face each other in the second game of their series. The D-backs’ recent success hasn’t included any Zac Gallen starts. He is 0-4 in his last 7 starts and is running dangerously close to the ignoble run per inning stat. He has a paltry 3-12 team record and struggles both on the road and vs right handed batters. Starting for Colorado, Freeland (4-6, 4.40) has improved dramatically since the start of the season. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 3.94 in August, very good at home, and has really only had one bad outing since the beginning of July. Both bullpens have been poor this season, but Colorado’s has shown marked improvement with a collective ERA of 2.94 in their last 7 starts. Probably the most significant stat regarding this game are the Diamondbacks’ road woes. They are 9-24 on the road, and their recent success has come at home. They are also a startling 9-24 against left handed pitching. The Rockies are surprisingly good at home in Coors Field, and a very good home favorite at 42-21 this year. I haven’t had much success with the spread lately but this is one game where the extra runs are justified. Take the Rockies -1.5. | |||||||
08-14-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Mets | 2-1 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Dodgers (Beuhler) vs Mets (Walker) Out in the NL West, the Dodgers have lost ground on the Giants, and aren’t even that secure vs. San Diego. A couple of wins against the Mets would help things along. The Mets have their own woes. At 4-6 in their last ten games, they are in danger of falling out of contention in the NL East. At one point in this season, Taijuan Walker was just the pitcher they would want on the mound today, but ever since the all-star break he has struggled mightily. He is 1-4 in that period and his ERA has ballooned to 7.67. He faces the mighty Walker Beuhler, (12-2, 2.13) a consistent force for the Dodgers all season long. He is very good at home, in fact there really are no negatives in his season, other than, at a team record of 15-8, the Dodgers haven’t always given him the run support he deserves. Earlier in the season, the Mets’ mantra seemed to be score few runs, allow fewer. This has changed of late; after struggles with both starting pitching and relief and no significant improvements in offense, the Mets now allow more runs than they score. In the Dodgers they face a team with a fine bullpen (1.59 collective ERA in their last 7 games) and one of the premier offenses in the league. Everything points to a Dodgers’ win, even the day of the week. The Dodgers are 15-4 when playing on Saturdays! The Dodgers are a favorite today but the odds are not that onerous. I think they are good for a couple of runs vs. New York. Considering the Mets’ soft hitting and Taijuan Walker’s woes, take the Dodgers at -1.5. | |||||||
08-14-21 | Reds -1.5 v. Phillies | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Reds (Castillo) vs. Philadelphia (M. Moore) The Reds are just out of the NL East frying pan (Braves) and into a series with the fire (Philadelphia), but are holding their own. They are 7-3 and well in the frame for a wildcard spot. Luis Castillo (6-11, 4.53 ERA) is starting. Castillo started very poorly this season and then turned things around through June and July. His last start was a reversion to the dark side, but he is 3-1, 3.32 ERA in his last seven starts. Matt Moore is a shadow of his former self at 1-3 and 6.79 ERA. He was extremely poor in his last start, has been poor at home and very poor against right-handers. Not good against a powerhouse left-handed eating offense like the Reds. Even when Moore is on, you can’t expect more than 4 innings. The Reds’ new improved bullpen will likely have much less work than the indifferent Phillies relief corp as Castillo will generally give 6 innings per start. Motivation is not an issue with either team. Cincinnati is a decent road team. The Phillies are good at home but poor vs the NL Central league. The Phillies are definately outgunned by the Reds. I am wagering that Castillo reverts to form, and the Reds win the second game of the series. Based on Moore’s record, I think that the Reds are good for a couple of runs. Take the Reds -1.5 | |||||||
08-13-21 | Reds +1.5 v. Phillies | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Reds (Mahle) vs Phillies (Wheeler) Off a pair of losses, the Phillies solved the Dodger problem, winning by the slimmest of margins on Thursday. Thanks to an 8-2 record they now lead the NL East by a half a game. The Reds broke out against the Braves in a big way, and come to Philadelphia in the hunt for a wild card spot. Zack Wheeler is starting on Friday, and has he been hot! Off a 2 hit complete game shutout and a pair of 7 inning efforts vs the Nationals, he is 4-2 and an ERA of 2.90 in his last 7 starts. He has been sharp all year and especially solid at home. Tyler Mahle might not have quite the ERA at 3.78 but he has an enviable record of 9-3. He averages 5+ innings a start and has won 2 of 3, giving up 6 ER in that time. While his ERA has slipped a bit since the break, he is 6-1 on the road. By the stats, the Phillies have had the superior pen, but the Reds have reloaded and have been very sharp with a collective relief ERA of 2.22 last 7.The Phillies can’t match that record, and in the last three games, their pen has been outright poor and heavily overused. The Reds are a very good road team. They have a potent offense and handle right- handed pitching very well. They have a 9-5 record as a road underdog. Phillies are a great home team, and it is hard to bet agaisnt Wheeler, but the Philadelphia bullpen really concerns me. The Reds are a significant underdog and I like Mahle in this situation, but applying the ‘Zack” factor, I’m wagering on the Reds +1.5. | |||||||
08-10-21 | White Sox v. Twins +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
White Sox (Keuchel) vs Twins (Jax) The Twins, pounded by the White Sox on Monday, are a team that is treading water, far in the distance in the White Sox’ rear view mirror. After losing Berrioz at the trade deadline, they are likely looking for some starting pitching. Based on Griffin Jax’s recent performance, the rookie’s travels to and from triple A may be over. He has been very solid in his last three starts, posting a 1.88 ERA since the all-star break, and lasting 5 innings on average. His mound opponent is veteran Dallas Keuchel (7-5, 4.44). Keuchel is 3 -3 in away starts this year and has an ERA of 5.24 since the All-star break. He is backed by a very sharp White Sox pen, and a solid offense. The Twins were sellers at the trade deadline but even missing Cruz, still have a very powerful offense and can score a ton of runs. Losing 11-1 smarts, even when you are a cellar dweller, and I am looking for some bounce-back on Tuesday. Their bullpen has been very good in their last seven games, not always the norm. Keuchel is not quite the pitcher he once was, and hasn’t been especially sharp lately. I like Griffin Jax in this postion. The Twins are at home, off a loss, and still have firepower. Take the Twins with the spread at +1.5. | |||||||
08-09-21 | Reds -1.5 v. Indians | 3-9 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Reds (Castillo) vs Indians (Hentges) The hard-charging and hard hitting Reds, 8-2 in their last ten games are in Cleveland today. The Indians are off a win, but at 4-6, just treading water at the moment. With solid management the Indians always seem to me to be a team that hits above its weight, but with Hentges on the mound they will have to get the bats to work. Hentges is a rookie ‘sometimes-starter’ with poor stats (0-4, 7.86). He won’t stay long in the game and will need support from a bullpen that has been very good in their last seven games. The Reds have Castillo on the mound. Looking at his record (6-10, 4.09) he doesn’t look impressive but in this case, the numbers don’t tell the true picture. Castillo has been solid through July and August, and 3-0 with 19 innings pitched and 5 runs allowed in his last 3 starts. The Reds bullpen did receive a bit of support at the deadline but is still very unimpressive. They do have a very good road record and are very effective against left-handed starters. The Reds, as a team, score a lot of runs but they also allow allow a lot of runs as well. The Indians haven’t been high scoring of late but may have success against the Reds’ relievers. Cincinnati is a large favorite, but taking the spread, only a small one. I think they are good for the extra runs. Take the Reds -1.5. | |||||||
08-08-21 | Nationals v. Braves -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
Nationals (Corbin) vs Braves (Fried) Since the trade deadline, the Nationals have fallen off the map, winning only three of ten games. With Patrick Corbin on the mound today there is no guarantee that this trend will change. Corbin is 6-10, with an ERA of 5.74, and has lost his last 4 starts. He has struggled against right-handers and has been poor on the road. After losing to the Nationals last night, the Braves, in the thick of a tight fight for a spot in the playoffs, must win this series to even stay close. Max Fried (8-7, 4.05 ERA) is his opponent today. Fried was very good in his last start, pitching 6 innings of shutout ball against St Louis. He is 2 and 2 since the all-star break with an era of 2.16, and has given up only 6 runs in his last three starts. Perhaps the greatest expression of what has changed since the trade deadline for these two clubs can be seen in reliever performance. Pre-trade deadline these two teams’ pens were roughly equal. In the last seven games, the Braves’ has a 1.88 era while the Nationals’ has plummeted to 5.70 era. The Nationals have done no favors for their offensive production either. Look for Fried to continue his fine performance, and the Braves to win this game handily, making up for their tight loss on Saturday. Take Atlanta -1.5. | |||||||
08-08-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 8-9 | Loss | -101 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
Red Sox (Richards) vs Blue Jays (Ryu) Off a close loss last night, the Jays are riding a hot home stretch and have taken 2 of 3 from the Red Sox in a vital series for both teams. Today it is Ryu, arguably Toronto’s ace, on the mound facing Garrett Richards. Ryu (11-5, 3.22) has been masterful with the slow stuff in August and July with an ERA of 1.85 since the break. The Red Sox haven’t had much success against him, but nor has anyone else. His opponent Garrett Richards has been not so masterful. In his last two starts vs Toronto he has given up 8 runs while pitching only 4 innings per start. With an ERA of 7.24 since the break, he has struggled against right handed hatters. This is not who you want to struggle with facing the red hot Jays. As far as bullpens go, the Red Sox’s has regressed somewhat and the Jays’ has been fortified, so call it a draw. Offense? Boston’s has been potent but the Jays’ lineup is a monster. Motivation is not an issue here. Both teams need to win. Boston has struggled of late and the Jays have ground to make up. I am wagering that the Jays’ offense, held back by some very good starters in the last two games are prepped to tee off on Richards. The Blue Jays are a favorite, but should be good on the spread. Take the Jays -1.5. | |||||||
08-07-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Yankees | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show | |
Mariners (Flexen) vs Yankees (Heaney) Since the trade deadline, the Yankees are on a prolonged winning streak. Their latest victims have been the Seattle Mariners, winning the opening two games of their home series. Seattle has been touring the hot teams in the American East and hasn’t fared well. Pitching for Seattle is Chris Flexen (10-5, 3.75). Aside from his start against Houston, Flexen has been as good as anyone this season, with wins, start length and ERA. I am looking for him to continue his rebound against the Yankees. Andrew Heaney, new to the Yankees, lost his first start with his new team. He has not been that impressive this season at 6-8 with an ERA of 5.42. He is poor against right-handed batters, and has pitched only 9 innings in his last three starts. He does have the Yankees potent bullpen to back him up, although it has been well-used, with a bullpen day yesterday and some short starts from the Yankees’ starters lately. As far as offense goes, the Yanks have brought in hired guns for the stretch, adding two huge bats, and are a definite favorite over the Mariners. The Mariners added to their pen, losing a closer, then adding two bullpen pieces. The Mariners’ pen has been more than respectable of late. The Yankees are a heavy favorite, but the combination of Heaney, a poor starter, Flexen, an elite starter who the Yanks are not familiar with, and Seattle’s success against lefties, makes me lean towards Seattle. The Yankees are a heavy favorite, so take the Mariners +1.5. | |||||||
08-03-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Pirates (Kranick) vs Brewers (Houser) The Pirates’ starter, Max Kranick, must know the route from Indianapolis to Pittsburgh pretty well by now. He has been back a forth a good number of times in the last couple of months. In between, he has made four starts, has a record of 1-2, and an ugly ERA of 7.31. His first start was terrific, a five inning no hit shutout, but it has been downhill from there. He has averaged less than 4 innings a start, and has been very poor against right handed batters. His mound opponent for Milwaukee is Adrian Houser (7-5, 3.69). Houser had a very productive July and has had very good team support (13-5). His starts average around 5 innings and he has only given up 4 runs in his last three assignments. Kranick’s short starts could become a real issue today as Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been horrid of late AND they just lost their very effective closer at the trade deadline. Milwaukee’s relief corps has been very good at home and in the last 7 games. The Brewers have added a couple of good relief pieces and supplemented their already potent offense via trade. Pittsburgh is one of a number of teams who will struggle down the stretch after the trade deadline, but it will get players like Kranick into the bigs. What this does to the Pirates already suspect performance remains to be seen. At 40-65 against right handed pitching and 17-35 in road games, I can suggest where the game against Milwaukee will go today. Likely straight downhill. Milwaukee is 63-43 at home and 52- 32 vs right handed starters. At this point Kranick is a very average right-hander. I am picking Houser to continue his strong season and the Brewers to win. Take Milwaukee -1.5. | |||||||
08-03-21 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | 5-4 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler) vs. Washington Nationals (Corbin) Facing the Nationals last night, the Phillies blew the game open in the 9th for the win. Since the trade deadline, the Nationals are a tad shy in the reliever department, and can expect this to become a regular occurrence. With Patrick Corbin (6-9, 5.78) up against Zack Wheeler (8-6, 2.45) today, the Nationals will be lucky to have a lead to protect. Corbin has struggled this season. In his last three starts, he is 0-2 , has averaged 5 innings per start, and given up 14 runs. He has struggled against right handed batters and had a 7.18 ERA for July. Lefty Zack Wheeler has been strong all season. Philadelphia, in games he has started, is 12-9. His three last starts were 6 or 7 innings each, giving up a total of 8 runs. The Phillies have added to the pen to the point that they were able to have one of their closers start yesterday. Their bullpen which has been an issue, has been excellent of late. The Nationals relievers have been very poor lately and completely bombed last night. The offenses are roughly equal in average and run production. One Nationals stat does stand out; the Nationals are poor against lefthanders, but only 17-34 as an underdog! While they split their last series vs. the Phillies, I doubt that the Nationals will do as well this go-round. Take the Phillies to win -1.5. | |||||||
08-02-21 | Giants -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
SF Giants (DeSclafani) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Widener) Firmly in the cellar with an abysmal record, and a covid-riddled lineup, things look bleak for the D-backs. Today, Giants starter DeSclafani (10-5, 3.10) faces youngster Taylor Widener (1-1, 4.42). He has 8 starts this season, spending considerable time on the IL. His last two starts have been poor, resulting in a bloated 7.82 ERA for July. He struggles against left handed hitting. DeSclafani has pitched well this season, and has had plenty of support from his team-mates. The Giants are 14-7 with him on the mound. He can’t manage the Dodgers, resulting in a very poor start last time out, lasting only 2 plus innings and giving up 4 runs. Arizona has not fared well against DeSclafani. They have a poor home record and are very poor vs right handed pitching. Their bullpen has been, you guessed it, poor and losing Soria at the deadline won’t help. The Giants, winners of two straight vs the powerhouse Astros added all-star Kris Bryant to their already effective lineup and will look to pad their lead over the Dodgers in this series against the D-backs. They are a heavy favorite but the spread is palatable. Take the Giants -1.5. | |||||||
07-31-21 | Royals v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
KC (Minor) vs BlueJays (Menoah) After a long stretch of hapless baseball, the Royals have turned things around. They took 3 of 4 against the White Sox, swept Detroit, and took both games vs. Milwaukee in their last 3 series. The majority of these wins were at home. With the loss of Duffy and Soler at the trade deadline, a significant chunk out of their offense and starting pitching, is it even conceivable that KC can make a run for a wildcard spot now? The Jays are a number of games out and in a much tougher division, but have gone all in at the trade deadline, buoying up their starting pitching and adding significantly to their bullpen in the last days and weeks. They are obviously in a win now mode. It is a bit of an up-in-the-air match up on Saturday. Minor for the Royals (8-8, 5.33) has had some indifferent stretches this season, but his last two starts have been excellent; 6 innings per start, allowing 1 and 2 earned runs respectively. Manoah, the Jays’ highly touted rookie right-hander struggled his last outing but was lights out in his two previous starts. Of the first 8 starts in his career, 5 have been of excellent quality. He is just off the ten day disabled list in time for Saturday’s start. It would appear that Toronto has made great strides in improving their bullpen, which has been a large stumbling block this season. Their bullpen is showing the results of this improvement in the last few games. They are finally back to a “real” home stadium in Toronto; a point to consider. Kansas city’s bullpen has been slightly better of late. They have a poor road record, and have been very poor vs right handed pitching. I am wagering that Manoah will be back in form. Noting KC’s struggles on the road and vs. right-handers, I believe that the Jays’ big bats will be too much for Minor. Take the Jays -1.5 today. |
Service | Profit |
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Jack Jones | $965 |
Ricky Tran | $708 |
Big Al McMordie | $662 |
Ross Benjamin | $640 |
Sean Murphy | $620 |
ProSportsPicks | $615 |
AAA Sports | $424 |
Nick Parsons | $306 |
Matt Fargo | $305 |
Dan Kaiser | $215 |