Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-27-24 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Norfolk State +1.5 | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
So, we've got 2 teams with essentially equal records (Norfolk State is 23-11 and IPFW is 23-12) and one of them is playing at home. But the other is favored. Hmmm. What's the deal? The biggest reason for this is that the Horizon League is considered to be (and is) stronger. That doesn't make the Mastodons better on the road than the Spartans are at home. Ipfw is a solid 12-7 on the road but Norfolk State is a perfect 14-0 at home! If we go back to the beginning of the season, Norfolk State was projected to be near the top of the MEAC. IPFW was expected to be near the bottom of the Horizon. The Mastodons didn't return a single starter from last season. They should be commended for having the season which they've accomplished but it will end with a loss. The Spartans outscore teams by a 84.5 to 62.6 point margin at home. That cannot be ignored. Make it 15-0 after tonight! | |||||||
03-26-24 | Mavs +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 132-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
If you pay attention to how teams fare in certain situations, you'll understand why this the case of the wrong team being favored. Both teams are off a victory last night. That works in favor of Dallas. The Mavericks are 8-3 versus the spread their last 11 tries, when playing with 0 days rest. The Kings are only 4-8 ATS when doing so. The Kings played great defense last night. The problem is that they are only 2-9 ATS their last 11 tries, after allowing 105 points or less. The Mavericks are 29-18-1 ATS (30-18 straight up) when revenging a home loss, 12-5 ATS their last 17. The Kings won twice at Dallas but the Mavericks get them back tonight! | |||||||
03-26-24 | Fairfield v. Seattle University -7 | Top | 58-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Seattle was 9-3 versus the spread in non-conference action. Having beaten Grand Canyon during the season, the Redbirds know that they can beat this Fairfield team. The Stags are 1-5 versus the spread their last 6 tournament games and the Redbirds are 5-1 versus the spread. The Redbirds are the stronger team but they also have a scheduling advantage. They play 2 games in 2 days but the Stags are playing 3 games in 3 days. That extra Sunday game played by Fairfield, as opposed to Seattle playing on Saturday, will be a factor. Lay the points with the Redbirds! | |||||||
03-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -15.5 | Top | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
This is as essentially as big a mismatch as it gets in the NBA. The Denver Nuggets are the defending champions. They need to keep winning and they dominate teams at home. The Memphis Grizzlies are playing for nothing. This is a team which is beleaguered by injuries. The last time that these teams faced each other, the Nuggets won by 37 points. The Nuggets have won 41 of 50 meetings here and many of them have been blowouts. The last 5 Denver home wins over Memphis have all been by at least 13 points. With the Grizzlies only 4-7 versus the spread their last 11 tries with 2 days rest, this one will see the Nuggets win by at least 20! **WESTERN CONF GOM** | |||||||
03-25-24 | Montana +3 v. Arkansas State | 61-74 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
My CakeWalk selections are usually reserved for favorites which I expect to win with ease. They don't have to be though. When I am getting points with an underdog which I expect to win outright, as I am here, I can occasionally use that title. Here, we've got a Montana team which won 24 games. Arkansas State won 19. Both teams score roughly the same number of points but Montana allows a lot less. Though the points aren't likely to come into play, both teams did see their last game decided by 2 or less. Montana won by 1 and Arkansas State won by 2. If this turns out to be another game decided on the final possession, I'd rather be getting points than laying in them. The Grizzlies are 10-3 straight up (9-4 versus the spread) their last 13 tries when playing with 1 days rest or less. They are 25-11 SU their last 36 tries. Let's go Grizzlies! | |||||||
03-24-24 | Yale v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
The San Diego State Aztecs are an experienced team which made a deep run in this tournament. They have the type of team suited to winning at this time of the year. The Yale Bulldogs were fortunate to win the Ivy League Finals. Then, they pulled off a first round upset over Auburn. That was a big win but they won't duplicate it tonight. The Aztecs will dial up the defensive intensity and low-scoring games don't really suit Colorado. The Buffaloes are just 1-3 versus the spread their past 4 when the total was 120 to 129.5. San Diego State is a perfect 5-0 ATS its past five tries, as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Aztecs caught a break by getting Yale and they will take advantage of it! | |||||||
03-24-24 | Northwestern v. Connecticut -14 | 58-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
The top teams in the Big East are right there among the best and it starts with UConn. The defending champions are taking no prisoners this year. They have scored over 90 points in 2 of their past 3 games. Northwestern won't be able to keep up! Playing on a neutral court must feel like playing at home for the Huskies. They are 7-1 versus the spread (8-0 SU) their past 8 games on a neutral court. They are 20-6 ATS their last 26. They are now 7-1 ATS their last 8 NCAA Tournament games. Some team will test them but Northwestern won't be the one to do it. Lay the points! | |||||||
03-24-24 | Colorado v. Marquette -3.5 | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
In case you've haven't noticed, the Big 3 in the Big East are all special teams. The Huskies are the defending champs and didn't miss a beat this year. Arizona can compete with the top 3 in the Big East but the other Pac-12 teams cannot. We saw Creighton dismantle Pac-12 Tournament Champion Oregon last night. Marquette is another special Big East team which has the potential to go a long way. The Buffaloes are 2-4 versus the spread as an underdog. The Golden Eagles are 17-9 versus the spread as a favorite. Lay the points! | |||||||
03-22-24 | TCU -3.5 v. Utah State | Top | 72-88 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 56 m | Show |
A small line is offering excellent value with the Big 12 team. The Mountain West is a solid conference but the Big 12 is stacked. The Horned Frogs have wins over teams like Houston, Texas Tech, Baylor, K-State Cincinnati and Oklahoma. They were within a bucket of beating Kansas, and Iowa State. In fact, there were numerous very close losses. This team is better than its record! The Horned Frogs are 21-9 versus the spread their last 30 tries, off a loss against a conference rival. The only time that they played with 7 or more days rest in between games resulted in an easy cover, a 77-42 blowout. The Frogs were 14-10 versus the spread as favorites, 3-1 ATS as road favorites. TCU is 7-1 straight up its last 8 against Mountain West teams. The Aggies are 1-5 ATS as underdogs and 0-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Lay the small number! | |||||||
03-22-24 | Northwestern +4 v. Florida Atlantic | 77-65 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
Too many points between two equal teams in a game which will be close. The Wildcats are 4-0 versus the spread their last 4 NCAA tournament games. The Owls are 3-7 versus the spread their last 10 tries as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Wildcats are also 6-2 versus the spread their last 8 tries, off a loss against a conference rival. Northwestern has 8 losses since getting blown out on January 2nd. All 8 losses came by single digits. During that time they have beaten teams like Illinois and Michigan State. They know that they can beat this Florida Atlantic team. Grab the points. | |||||||
03-21-24 | Oakland v. Kentucky -13.5 | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Oakland will be outclassed. Kentucky has disappointed in recent tournaments and will be ready to run up the score. It doesn't matter that the coaches are friends. The Wildcats were 8-5 versus the spread against non-conference opponents and they outscored them by an average of 16 points a game. The Wildcats are 12-2 versus the spread their last 14 tries as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 to 15 points. Oakland was great with no rest but not so good with lots of it. The Golden Grizzlies are 0-3 versus the spread the last 3 times that they played with 7 or more days rest and 2-6 ATS their last 8 tries in that situation. Lay the points! | |||||||
03-21-24 | Michigan State v. Mississippi State +1.5 | 69-51 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 30 m | Show | |
We get a good one right out of the gate: SEC taking on the Big Ten. 8 versus 9. Tom Izzo is a legend but Chris Jans is also a winner. I give the edge to the Bulldogs on the floor. Playing the game at Spectrum Center in Charlotte shouldn't bother the Bulldogs. Did you know that Mississippi State is 9-0 when playing on a neutral court? The only loss came versus Auburn and the Bulldogs were playing their 3rd game in 3 days. The Bulldogs did beat Auburn earlier. They also beat Tennessee twice this year. When facing a Big Ten opponent, they thumped Northwestern. The Spartans split with NW but were outscored by 10 points in the two games combined. Let's go Bulldogs! | |||||||
03-20-24 | UNLV v. Princeton -2.5 | Top | 84-77 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
Getting to play this game in Jadwin Gymnasium is a big advantage for Princeton. The Tigers were undefeated on their home floor this season. In going 12-0, they outscored visiting teams by an average of 16.8 points. UNLV had some big wins but came up short when it mattered. The Rebels are a long way from home and aren't going to be as motivated as the Tigers. The Tigers score more points and they allow less. That's not all from the Ivy League schedule either. The Rebels are only 2-5 versus the spread in 7 tries in a road game where the total is 135 to 139.5. The Tigers are 6-3 ATS in nine tries, off a loss against a conference rival. Lay the small number! | |||||||
03-19-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves +7.5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
Give me the points with Timberwolves! The situation is that the Nuggets are off a buzzer beater loss on Sunday and the Timberwolves are off a comeback win last night. Because of the lack of rest, the Nuggets are laying a hefty number as a road favorite. Too hefty! If we look at Minnesota's 10 games with 0 days rest we find a 7-3 straight up record. Closer examination reveals that all 3 losses came on the road, the last 2 both by single-digits. The Timberwolves are 4-0 straight up when playing a home game after playing the previous day. Twice they've played a home game after playing an away game and they won those games by an average of 118-107. On the season, the Timberwolves have a better home record than Denver does a road record. Give the me points! *Northwest GOW | |||||||
03-19-24 | Wagner +3.5 v. Howard | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Not much separates these teams and I'm happy to grab the points being offered. Wagner was 9-7 versus the spread as an underdog. Howard was just 7-11 versus the spread as a favorite. The Seahawks don't score many points but they don't allow many either. Those type of teams give the Bison trouble. Howard is 1-4 ATS their last 5 tries versus poor offensive teams - scoring | |||||||
03-18-24 | Hawks v. Lakers -8.5 | Top | 105-136 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
I wasn't surprised that the Hawks showed up for last night's game. I don't believe that they'll be able to do it two nights in row though. Atlanta is 4-7 versus the spread when playing with 0 days rest. When playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games, the Hawks are 0-2 both straight up and against the spread. They lost those 2 games by an average score of 120-111. Overall, the Hawks are only 12-19 ATS as underdogs. They are really bad when they are off an upset victory. In that situation, they've gone 10-27 ATS their last 37 tries, 3-7 ATS this season. The Lakers lost at Atlanta in January but they smashed the Hawks by 16 the last meeting here. Another big win coming up tonight! | |||||||
03-17-24 | Hawks +9.5 v. Clippers | 110-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Despite being the better team, LAC isn't at full strength right now. Russell Westbrook is out and James Harden is questionable for this game. Having said that, this line is too big. In their last four meetings with each other, the Hawks have either won, or kept it within single digits. Although Atlanta is on a losing streak, the Clippers have also been struggling lately. Also, Atlanta's losses have been close. They're still 3-3 their last 6 games and the Hawks last 2 losses were by only 6 combined points. This is a big game for the Hawks as they don't want to slip any further as the final play-in tournament team right now. The Hawks upset LA here last year. This line is considerably too high and don't be shocked if the Hawks win this one outright. | |||||||
03-17-24 | Brown v. Yale -7.5 | 61-62 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 5 m | Show | |
The Bulldogs have gotten their act together just in time. They dominated Cornell yesterday and they will have their way with Brown this afternoon. This is the best team in the Ivy League and that will be on full display this afternoon. Brown beat them at home less than a week ago but Yale is 4-1 versus the spread, 5-0 straight up the past 5 tries, when avenging a home loss. The Bulldogs are also 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) their past 6 tries, as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Yale is still 9-1 the past 10 meetings, even after last week's loss. The Bears' run comes to an end today. Yale by double-digits! | |||||||
03-16-24 | Long Beach State +2.5 v. UC-Davis | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
UC Davis might own the better record here. But, we all know that it’s March. The Beach are fighting to get revenge after losing to the Aggies just a week ago today. These two teams split the season series and that doesn’t surprise me. Long Beach State was able to knock off the top team during the regular season in UC Irvine in their last game and are now getting the respect that they deserve. Long Beach State is 5-1 versus the spread in its last 6 conference tournament games. Cal Davis is 3-8-1 ATS its last 12 as a neutral court favorite of 3 or less. Marcus Tsohonis is someone to keep an eye on. The pace of LBSU should be enough to cause problems for UC Davis and let the 49ers into the big dance for the first time since 2012. | |||||||
03-15-24 | NC State v. Virginia -2.5 | Top | 73-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Nice win for the Wolfpack yesterday. Any time you knock out Duke, its a good day! They are only 5-9 versus the spread their last 14 tries off an ATS victory though and now they will face a dominant defensive team. They are 1-4 straight up the past 5 times versus good defensive teams - allowing | |||||||
03-15-24 | Michigan State v. Purdue -5.5 | 62-67 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
Its never wise to underestimate a Tom Izzo coached team. Sometimes, great coaching isn't enough. The Spartans simply have no answer for Zach Edey. He's dominated them and there's little reason to expect anything different on Friday morning. Edey scored 32 points, while adding 11 rebounds in the game a couple of weeks ago. Last season, Edey averaged 35 points against the Spartans. If Izzo's Spartans go all out to contain Edey, it'll leave them vulnerable to Purdue's outsider shooters. This will be the first time that the Spartans have played 2 games in 2 days all season. The Boilermakers are 11-7-1 versus the spread with 3 or more day's rest and they are 5-0 straight up and ATS (or 4-0-1) when on a neutral court with wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama and Arizona. The line is low. Lay the points with Edey and the Boilermakers. | |||||||
03-14-24 | Georgia v. Florida -8 | 80-85 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
Georgia got a fortunate first round matchup against Missouri. The Tigers hadn't won a game in months. This is a big step up in class though and the Bulldogs will be exposed by a stronger Florida team tonight. The Gators won both regular season meetings. Prior to yesterday, the Bulldogs were 0-3 straight up and versus the spread in neutral site games. Some teams are used to doing so but this will be the first time this season that they played with 0 days rest. When off a loss, as the Gators are, they outscored teams by an average score of 83.8 to 73.4. They'll beat the Bulldogs by at least that many tonight! | |||||||
03-14-24 | Villanova +4.5 v. Marquette | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Who in their right mind would back Villanova after the Wildcats only beat Depaul by 1 point? Call me crazy and count me in. Yesterday's result was great. It's keeping people off the Wildcats today and that is leading to extra points on the line. With Marquette's best player Tyler Kolek out, and with Nova needing the win more than the Golden Eagles, this is a lot of points. They could come in handy, as Villanova has had some close ones. Yesterday's 1-point game was preceded by a 2-point loss versus Creighton, a game Villanova was down big and showed heart in rallying. Remember the 1-point game versus UConn? A win today and the Cats could start feeling a lot better about their NCAA Tournament hopes. Marquette already knows it'll be there. The Golden Eagles are 1-2 versus the spread on a neutral floor. The Wildcats have thrived in their neutral court games including victories over UNC, Texas Tech and Memphis. They are 2-0 both straight up and versus the spread when playing with 0 days rest. Give me the points! | |||||||
03-14-24 | Kent State +6.5 v. Toledo | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
These teams are closer in talent than the point spread is telling us. They were the two best in the conference last season. The Golden Flashes were favored for the game at Kent State and the Rockets are laying nearly as many today as they were for the game at Toledo. The Flashes are 10-4 versus the spread their last 14 tries on a neutral court. Toledo won the regular season title last year but Kent State won the MAC Conference Tournament to advance to the NCAA Tournament. The Flashes are 5-1 straight up and versus the spread their last 6 games in this tournament. They are coming in confident. The Rockets are only 6-10 versus the spread their last 16 tournament games. Give me the points! | |||||||
03-13-24 | CS-Northridge v. UC-Santa Barbara -3 | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
The Gauchos weren't that good against the spread this season. They were good to me when I supported them though. I won my Big West Game Of The Year on them way back in the middle of January. I was high on them then and I still them. I also won with the Gauchos last March 11th, my Big West Tourney Game Of the Year from last year. They were laying a similar number that day that they are today and they won by 10. The Gauchos have been excellent as short neutral court favorites the past couple of years. In all neutral site games they were 6-3 versus the spread. The Matadors have won just 1 of their last 10 first round tournament games, going 3-7 versus the spread. The Gauchos went to the NCAA Tournament last year. They won't be stopped tonight. | |||||||
03-13-24 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas -5.5 | Top | 85-90 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Arkansas' disappointing regular season has provided us with great value in the opening round. Vastly superior to Vanderbilt talent-wise, at least in my opinion, the Razorbacks somehow got upset by the Commodores at home, in late February. They were favored by double-digits! That was a low point and now is a chance to start making things right. The Razorbacks are 5-1-1 versus the spread their last 7 tries, when revenging a home loss. They are a respectable 8-6 ATS their last 14 tries against losing teams but 13-1 SU in those games. The loss was the Vanderbilt game. The majority of those spreads were a lot higher than this one. Looking for its revenge, Arkansas will move to 14-1 its last 15 tries against losing teams and will cover the small number for us in the process! | |||||||
03-13-24 | Coppin State v. Norfolk State -14.5 | 51-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
If this was truly a neutral site game, the Eagles might be able to keep it close. Coppin State can't be very happy to have to play the Spartans at Norfolk Scope Arena though. The Eagles were 0-17 on the road this season and they were outscored 75.5 to 55.1 in those games. The Spartans were 13-0 at home and they outscored teams by an average of 84.8 to 62.3. The Spartans played a number of tough non-conference road games (like Tennessee) to get them ready for the postseason. They won at places like Illinois State and VCU and will have no trouble with over-matched Coppin State. | |||||||
03-12-24 | Denver v. South Dakota State -9.5 | 68-76 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
The Jackrabbits get a dream matchup and will punch their ticket to the Big Dance tonight. They beat an arguably better team by 10 last night and should win by even more than that tonight. After all, they're off 5 straight wins by 10 or more. When they met earlier in the season, the Jackrabbits had yet to really hit their stride but when these teams met 3 weeks ago, the Jackrabbits won by 27 points. They've owned the Pioneers for years, the January loss at Denver was an anolmy. Remember that Denver was the #7 seed and had more losses than wins in regular season. South Dakota State will win this one in a "Cake-Walk!" | |||||||
03-12-24 | Bryant v. UMass Lowell -5.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
The River Hawks lost to Vermont in the America East Championship game last year. They want another crack at the Catamounts this year. A win here should earn them that opportunity as Vermont is a 13 point home favorite versus New Hampshire. Playing this game on their home floor is a major advantage for U Mass Lowell. The Bulldogs are strong at home but below .500 on the road. The River Hawks are 4-0 both straight up and versus the spread in four meetings since last season. They beat them by 22 here a few weeks ago after winning by 9 at Bryant the previous week. Bring on Vermont! | |||||||
03-12-24 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame -1 | 80-84 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
The Fighting Irish aren't a great team but its my belief that they're currently better than Georgia Tech. Both regular season meetings were close but the Irish found a way to win each of them. That will give them confidence for this afternoon's big game. Notre Dame lost a lot from last season and that meant going through some early growing pains. The talent is there though and they got better. The Irish are 5-3 their past 8 games and all 3 losses were at tough road venues. They've been their best within the conference, going 13-7 versus the spread. Losing senior Lance Terry early on the season didn't help the Yellow Jackets. Their season ends today. | |||||||
03-12-24 | Davidson v. Fordham +4 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
The Wildcats may have a better record and a higher seed but they shouldn't be laying points against anyone right now. Since these teams last met, Davidson has lost 5 straight games. The Rams are also off 3 straight losses but the last 2 have been competitive, including a 2-point road loss at 20-win UMass. Before that, the Rams had beaten George Mason and blew out Duquesne. Davidson's last 2 losses came by 18 and 10 points. It could be close so I will happily take points but I feel that the Rams are playing better basketball right now and I expect them to come through with the outright victory! | |||||||
03-11-24 | Montana State v. Weber State -6 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
I won with Weber State as my 2023 Big Sky Conference Tourney GOY. The Wildcats led from wire-to-wire in their quarterfinal victory over Sacramento State. The Wildcats brought back a ton of experience and depth from that team, including unanimous First Team All-Conference performer Dillon Jones. Jones had 18 points (plus 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals) in last year's GOY win. Jones is even more dominant this season. He averages more than 20 points and more than 10 rebounds. He's scored more than 20 points in 3 straight games and at least 17 points in each of his past 12. Heavily favored to win this conference before the season started, Jones and the Wildcats know that their time is now. They lost to the Bobcats to close out the regular season but will avenge that loss with a big win "when it counts" on Monday. | |||||||
03-10-24 | Texas State v. James Madison -10.5 | Top | 68-73 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
James Madison is in a class of its own in the Sun Belt and will prove it again this evening. The Dukes are 28-3 and they haven't lost since January. They beat Texas State by 17 in the lone regular season meeting. A dominant team, the Dukes also have the schedule in their favor. Both teams played yesterday. Its not surprising that JMU had an easier time with Marshall than Texas State had with Troy. Not only did the Bobcats have to battle harder yesterday but they also will already be playing their 4th game in this tournament, the first of which went to Overtime. It will catch up them against a superior opponent which had a double-bye and will be playing just its second game of the tourney. Lay the points! | |||||||
03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat -11 | 110-108 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
The Wizards are going to be outmatched at Miami today. Miami is 28-22-1 versus the spread its last 51 against division opponents. Off a cover at OKC, the Heat are 11-4-1 versus the spread, their last 16. The Wizards are 3-6 ATS their last 9. The Wizards, who have nothing to play for, are just 6-27 on the road! The Heat fought hard against the Thunder, despite playing their second game in 2 days, and a similar effort will pay dividends today. Coach Spoelstra commented: "We'll get better from this. There were a lot of good things to take away. None of us want to talk about (the positives) right now because we're competitors." The Wizards won last game but are only 1-8 (SU) after a win. Lay the points and expect Miami to win in a "Cakewalk!" | |||||||
03-10-24 | Lehigh v. Boston University +1.5 | Top | 84-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
I always enjoy getting points with a team which I expect to win outright! Though its unlikely that such a small point spread will come into play, when considering how close the regular season meetings were, its far from impossible. Those scores were 72-71 and 64-62, in Overtime. The Terriers won both games! You'll hear people say that its hard to beat a team 3 times. Guess what? It happens! I like to counter with the argument that its hard to beat a team which has already beaten you twice. Not only has Boston beaten Lehigh twice but the Terriers get to play this game at Case Gym, their very own home floor. They are 9-6 at home, Lehigh is 7-10 on the road. Boston is 6-1 the last 7 meetings and gets it done again this afternoon! | |||||||
03-10-24 | Longwood v. North Carolina-Asheville -2 | 85-59 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
It didn't look good for the Bulldogs for a time yesterday. They showed resiliency, grit and heart though and got the game to OT. Once there, they dominated. They won the extra session by a 12-1 margin. They'll bring that positive momentum into this afternoon's game. Longwood also went to OT yesterday. So, as far as minutes played, the teams are equal in that regard. Give the Lancers credit for taking down High Point, the tournament hosts. This will be an even tougher matchup for them though. The Bulldogs were the preseason favorites in the Big South. The Lancers were picked 5th. The Bulldogs have won 3 of the last 4 meetings. This afternoon, they will prove the preseason pundits right! | |||||||
03-09-24 | Denver +5 v. UMKC | Top | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
The Kangaroos enter the tournament on a hot streak. The opposite is true of the Pioneers. The tournament is a chance to wipe the slate clean though and those recent results have provided additional line value with the underdog. In the regular season, UMKC was only favored by 2 points at home against the Pioneers. (The Pioneers were favored by 4.5 at Denver.) Tonight, the Roos are laying more than that for a neutral site game. Value! This is unfamiliar territory for the Roos. They aren't used to being favored in tournament games. They are 15-44 SU their last 69 tournament games, 5-21 in conference tourney games. Over the last 2 seasons, they are 2-8 (3-7 ATS) in tournament play, 0-2 SU/ATS in the Summit Tourney. The Pioneers are 6-3 ATS their last 9 tries, when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Denver is also 6-2 ATS its last 8 tries as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Grab the points! | |||||||
03-09-24 | Wagner +6.5 v. Central Connecticut State | Top | 66-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
This is another case of too many points in a game which should come down to the wire. The Blue Devils did win both regular season meetings. Those wins each game by a single point though. That's 3 straight meetings which were decided by exactly one point. Scores of 73-72, 69-68 and 58-57. The previous two before that were both double-digit Wagner wins. One of the reasons Wagner gives the Blue Devils trouble is its defense. The Seahawks allow just 62.8 points per game. Central Connecticut is just 4-8 versus the spread its last 12 tries versus good defensive teams - those allowing | |||||||
03-09-24 | Arkansas +14.5 v. Alabama | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
Alabama is a great team but given Alabama's recent struggles and the recent history between the teams here, this is a case of too many points. The Crimson Tide are off consecutive losses and have dropped 3 of their past 4. Their last two wins both were by 15 or less. Arkansas is off a big win and had won 3 of its past 5. The Razorbacks' last 3 losses all came by single-digits. Khalif Battle has scored 141 points over his past four games. That's the most in a four-game SEC span in 20 years! The last 2 meetings at Alabama were both decided by 3 points or less. Last year's game here had a score of 86-63 and the year before the score was 68-67. This one will also be closer than expected. Grab the points! | |||||||
03-08-24 | Morehead State v. Tenn-Martin +7.5 | Top | 84-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Give me all those points with Tennessee Martin! The Eagles are a really good team but they're running into a really hot opponent. The Skyhawks are a perfect 7-0 both straight up and versus the spread their last 7 games. They won 21 games this season and they are 9-1 ATS their last 10. One of those wins came versus Morehead State. The Eagles easily won yesterday but still didn't cover. They are playing 2 games in 2 days for the first time this season. Even with 1 day's rest, they are 3-6 versus the spread. Grab the points with the rested, higher-seed! **OVC Tourney GOY** | |||||||
03-08-24 | Rockets -5.5 v. Blazers | 123-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
The Trail Blazers upset the Rockets at Houston in this season's first meeting. The Rockets were 10 point favorites for that game and they've been waiting to get their revenge ever since. Though they lost that 1/24 game against Portland, the Rockets are 12-6 versus the spread as favorites. They are also 15-10 versus the spread when playing against a team with a losing record. Home has not been kind to Portland. The Trail Blazers are 9-21 here. The Trail Blazers may have a better chance of beating Toronto tomorrow but tonight the Rockets will be too much for them to handle. Lay the points. | |||||||
03-08-24 | Boise State v. San Diego State -7.5 | Top | 79-77 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The Aztecs are no longer in the running for the regular season title. They have bigger fish to fry though. They want to win the Conference Tournament in order to get as high a seed as possible for the NCAA Tournament, which is where the ultimate goal lies. They don't want to expend too much energy in winning the Conf. Tournament though. That means that they absolutely do not want to have to play 4 games in 4 days to win it. If they lose tonight, they'd be in danger of dropping all the way down to the 6 seed. That would mean no bye and it would mean they would need to win 4 games in 4 days, which would leave them weary for the Big Dance. This game is important. The Aztecs are undefeated at home this season. A victory here gives them their first undefeated home record in school history. They are 4-1 ATS their last 5 tries when revenging a road loss vs opponent. They are also 4-1 ATS their last 5 tries off a MWC loss. Better still, they are 4-0 versus the spread as home favorites of 6.5 to 9 points. They will still be perfect in that role after tonight. Lay the points! | |||||||
03-08-24 | Belmont v. Northern Iowa +1.5 | Top | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Yesterday was a favorable matchup for Belmont as the Bruins got to beat up on a bad Valparaiso team. That was expected but today's opponent represents a night-and-day difference. The Panthers were one of the preseason favorites to win this conference and they've been showing that type of form. They closed the season off 3 consecutive double-digit wins. The last meeting saw UNI win by 11 at Belmont. The Bruins are 6-11 versus the spread, when playing against a team with a winning record. The Panthers are 8-3-1 versus the spread their last 12 on a neutral court. They are hot and rested and they will secure a small upset by knocking off Belmont this afternoon. **MVC Tourney GOY** | |||||||
03-07-24 | California v. Stanford -3.5 | Top | 58-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a big rivalry in the Bay area. The Golden Bears won at Cal but the Cardinal will win here at Stanford. The Cardinal are 3-0 straight up and versus the spread their last 3 tries in a home game where the total is 155 to 159.5. The Cardinal are also 13-8 ATS their last 21 tries in the road revenge role. The Bears are playing their 3rd straight road game. They lost the first game by 10 and then got annihilated by 39 last game. The Bears beat up Stanford at Cal last season but the game at Stanford was an entirely different story. The Cardinal crushed Cal by 29. Lay the points! | |||||||
03-07-24 | Heat v. Mavs -4.5 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
After they got destroyed by the Pacers in their last game, we're going to get a big effort out of the Dallas Mavericks tonight. The Mavericks are 10-6 versus the spread after getting defeated by 10 or more points. They are also 10-3 ATS their last 13 tries, after losing three straight games. Not only that, the Mavericks are 9-2 ATS when off an upset loss. The Heat haven't been very good as underdogs. They're 11-13 ATS when getting points. They're 0-2 ATS their last 2 games overall and they continue to play without Hero, Love and Richardson. Last season, both home teams won. The Mavericks won the game in Dallas by 25. Lay the points! | |||||||
03-07-24 | Valparaiso v. Belmont -13.5 | 61-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
The class difference between these teams will be on full display this afternoon. Belmont (19-12) is hot. The Bruins are 3-0 (straight up and versus the spread their last 3 games and 7-1 their last 8. The Bruins are also 5-1 their last 6 tries against losing teams. Valparaiso, 6-17 versus the spread its last 23 first round conf. tournament games, is 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) its last 6 tries, when the total was in the 150 to 159.5 range. The Bruins dominated both regular season meetings including an 18 point win at Valparaiso in the most recent. No reason to expect anything different this afternoon. Lay the points. | |||||||
03-06-24 | Thunder -13 v. Blazers | Top | 128-120 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Off three straight road games, Portland returns to the Pacific Northwest. Playing at home is not an advantage for the Trail Blazers. They are 10-18-1 versus the spread here. The Trail Blazers are also 16-31-1 versus the spread, after playing 3 consecutive road games. The Thunder average 120.9 points per game. The Trail Blazers average only 107.6. When matched up against low-scoring teams like Portand, the Thunder tend to dominate. They are 31-9-1 versus the spread their last 41 versus poor offensive teams - those. scoring | |||||||
03-06-24 | Tennessee -5.5 v. South Carolina | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
The SEC is very strong this season. South Carolina has defied the odds and thrived. The Gamecocks' most surprising victory came on January 30th when they went to Tennessee and upset the Volunteers. If that was the highlight of the Gamecocks' season so far, it was also the low point of the Volunteers season. It marked their only home loss, as they are 14-1 at home. They haven't forgotten and they will be ready to make things right. South Carolina averages 72 points a game. Tennessee averages more than 80. The Volunteers more than doubled the Gamecocks here last season, as they won 85-42. South Carolina will score more than 42 tonight but wont be able to keep up. Vols in a blowout! | |||||||
03-05-24 | Queens NC v. Stetson -4.5 | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
The Royals pulled off a minor upset at Florida Gulf Coast last night. Playing 2 road games in 2 days won't be easy for them though. They only played with 0 days rest once during the season and that resulted in a 10 point loss. The Royals are also 2-15 SU and 6-10-1 versus the spread when playing on the road. One of the Royals' road wins came here at Stetson. It won't happen again! The Hatters, 11-2 at home, are 9-4-1 versus the spread their last 14 tries when playing with home revenge, 24-10 ATS (in lined games) in thats situation over the long-term. The Royals are 2-8 versus the spread as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the small number! | |||||||
03-04-24 | Grizzlies v. Nets -8 | 106-102 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Here's a case of 2 teams heading in opposite directions. Memphis stayed competitive for some time this season but things have fallen apart. Massive injuries have finally caught up to the Grizzlies. Including last week's 25-point loss to the Nets, at Memphis, they have dropped 5 straight games. Off consecutive 10+ point wins, the Nets have won 2 in a row and 3 of 4. This should be another big Brooklyn win. Some teams are good at snapping losing streaks but when the Grizzlies start losing, they continue to lose. They are 6-13 versus the spread (5-14 SU) the past 19 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. The Nets, 9-7 versus the spread after allowing 105 or fewer points, are 4-1 ATS their last 5 versus poor offensive teams - those which score | |||||||
03-04-24 | Delaware State v. Howard -4 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
I've got the Howard Bison winning big in this one. The records may be similar but the Bison have some matchup advantages. They already beat the Hornets at Delaware State and they beat them by 20 when the teams played here last season. This is Senior Day and that the Bison are going to want to close out their final home game of regular season with a big statement win. If the Hornets can't beat teams at home, they're rarely able to do on the road. They're 1-5 versus the spread their last 6 tries when playing with home revenge. Delaware State gets outscored by 8.8 points per road game. Howard outscores teams by 6.5 points per home game. The Bison are 4-1 versus the spread their last 5 tries as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points! **Mid Eastern Athletic GOM** | |||||||
03-03-24 | UAB v. Memphis -7.5 | 87-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Memphis had its rough patch and are starting to play well again as we enter the month of March. UAB's road record is good, but Memphis' home record is better. The Blazers looked bad in their last game against Wichita State. The Tigers crushed East Carolina. UAB may have won the first meeting. Memphis seeks revenge as they now play this matchup at home. The Tigers are 75-44 ATS long-term when playing with road revenge, 9-5 ATS their past 14. March has been "Tiger Time." The Tigers are 9-4 straight up as well as against the spread, their last 13 in March. Going back and they're 92-60 ATS (107-49 SU) in March. Even while winning this year's first encounter, the Blazers are 2-18 straight up in their last 20 games against Memphis (0-16 L16 on the road.) This game is important and not just because of it being Senior Day. (The Tigers will honor 5 seniors.) The Tigers are trying to imporve their postseason position. If it can keep winning, Memphis still has a path to a top-four seed and a double-bye in the AAC Championship. Memphis comes away victorious, both SU and ATS! | |||||||
03-03-24 | Warriors v. Celtics -10.5 | 88-140 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Who's ready for a blowout on Sunday afternoon? The Warriors have been hot but their winning streak will come to an end in Boston this afternoon. Golden State is 4-6 versus the spread its last 10, after winning its previous 3 games. If the Warriors were playing somewhere else, the streak might continue. Not here. Not with the Celtics ready to avenge a December loss in the Bay area. Over the past few years, he Celtics are a dominating 50-29-3 versus the spread (63-19 SU) in the 2nd half of the season. They didn't lose a single game in all of February and rolled right into March by destroying Dallas. They are healthier and they will deliver another blowout on ABC TV this afternoon. | |||||||
03-03-24 | Rider v. Canisius +1.5 | 65-61 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Big revenge game for the Canisius Golden Griffins here. The Broncs are 5-11 on the road. The Golden Griffins are 8-3 at home. Time for Canisius to get some payback after they lost that overtime game against them in January. This is a good role for the Griffins as they are 3-0 straight-up and versus the spread the past 3 times that they were home underdogs of 3 or less. Even on their current 5-game winning streak, the Broncs still have a losing record this season. The Golden Griffins are 5-1 versus the spread in their last six games played in the month of March. Canisius has also been on a winning streak having won three in a row. With home-court advantage and the Golden Griffins honoring their seniors for Senior Day, Canisius is your winner. | |||||||
03-02-24 | Fairleigh Dickinson +3 v. Wagner | Top | 57-54 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The Seahawks upset them at Fairleigh Dickinson. This afternoon, the Knights will do the same at Wagner. The Knights are 5-1 versus the spread their last 6 tries, as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick. All five ATS victories were also of the straight up variety. Wagner is the opposite. The Seahawks are 1-3 their past 4 tries as home favorites of 3 or less. All the ATS losses came outright. Last year as 2 point road underdogs, the Knights beat the Seahawks by 18 here! That was after Wagner has won at FDU. Sound familiar? The Knights love March basketball. They're 20-4 versus the spread their last 24 lined games in the month of March, 5-1 ATS the past 2 years. They are also 9-5 ATS their last 14 tries, after scoring 60 points or less and 5-2 ATS their last 7 tries versus good defensive teams - those allowing | |||||||
03-02-24 | Florida +2.5 v. South Carolina | 76-82 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Getting points with the Florida Gators is a bonus, considering that I've got them winning this game outright. The Gators are already 4-2 versus the spread, as an underdog. They're 2-1 the past 3 seasons as road underdogs of 3 or less. Both the wins were both straight up and versus the spread. South Carolina coach Lamont Paris knows that the Gators, 9-2 their last 11, are going to be difficult: We've got a team that's been playing extremely well coming into our place." This game is going to impact the seeding for the upcoming SEC Tournament. Remember that in the SEC that the top four teams in the final regular-season standings earn byes to the conference tournament quarterfinals. The Gators beat the Gamecocks by 21 last season and they've won 15 of their last 22 visits to South Carolina. They're still the better team and they'll prove it this afternoon! | |||||||
03-01-24 | Louisiana-Monroe v. South Alabama -7 | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
The UL Monroe Warhawks are 12th in the Sun Belt. The South Alabama Jaguars are 7th. The Warhawks are 3-11 on the road. The Jaguars are 10-6 at home. The Warhawks won a January meeting at UL Monroe. The Jaguars will avenge that loss by blowing them out tonight! These clubs last played here last February. Favored by 11 points, the Jagurs won by 36! With that victory, they are 36-15 straight up and 23-15 versus the spread at home the past 3 seasons. The Warhawks are off an 18-point loss versus Texas State. They are 3-7 ATS when off a conference loss. The Jaguars win this game by more than 10 points. | |||||||
02-29-24 | Campbell v. College of Charleston -15 | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
These teams played a month ago, at Campbell. The Cougars won by 23. Playing at home, this will be another one-sided contest. The Cougars have won 7 straight games. Their last 2 wins came by 16 and 19 points. The Fighting Camels are only 3-10 on the road. The Fighting Camels average 64 points per game on the road. The Cougars average 81.7 points per game at home. Charleston has allowed 57 or fewer points in 2 of 3 games and an average of 65 over its past 5 games. The class of the Coastal Athletic Association, the Cougars are 3-0 SU/ATS after allowing 60 or fewer points. The Fighting Camels are allowing 83.6 points their last 5. Better on both offense and defense, the Cougars will dominate from start to finish. | |||||||
02-28-24 | South Carolina v. Texas A&M -4.5 | Top | 70-68 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
After consecutive losses, the Gamecocks won at Ole Miss last game. They will now be playing their second straight road game and they will do so against a desperate Texas A&M. Though the Aggies have lost 4 in a row, 3 of those losses were on the road. They are still 9-4 at home. They will be happy to face a South Carolina team which they beat by 41 points the last meeting. The total for this game is in the mid 130s. The Aggies are 5-1 versus the spread their last 6 tries when the total is 130 to 139.5. Over the last 3 seasons, Texas A&M is 31-16-1 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5. They are also 6-2 ATS (8-0 straight up) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points with the Aggies! | |||||||
02-27-24 | Heat v. Blazers +6.5 | 106-96 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
On Sunday, we won with Sacramento over the LA Clippers. Off that upset road win, we played against those same Kings on Monday, backing Miami over Sacramento. Off that upset road win, we will now play against the Heat. Miami is only 3-4-1 versus the spread with 0 days rest. The Heat get outscored by 6 points per game in that situation. Off last night's win over the Kings, the Trail Blazers will be easy for the Heat to look past. Understand that Miami has the Denver Nuggets, the NBA champions on deck. Missing some players, they won't be at their best tonight. This is the end of a long stretch of home games for the Trail Blazers and they are going to really want to close it out with a victory. Grab the points! | |||||||
02-27-24 | Penn State v. Iowa -8.5 | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Penn State won at home on the weekend but the road has not been kind to the Nittany Lions. They are only 3-10 away from home and they allow more than 78 points per road game. The Hawkeyes lost at Penn State earlier this month and they lost at Illinois last game. Winning on the road has been difficult for them as well. They are 3-8 away from home. They are 11-3 in 14 home games though and they outscore visiting teams by more than 12 points a game here. The total for this game is currently 161.5 or 162. A high-scoring game will favor the Hawkeyes. They are 15-2 SU and 11-5-1 versus the spread their past 17 tries when playing a home game with a total of 160 to 164.5. They average 90 points a game here and they will blow out Penn State tonight! | |||||||
02-26-24 | Heat +7.5 v. Kings | Top | 121-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
I had the Kings last night. Great game by them. They went to LA and hammered the Clippers, a hated division rival. That puts them in a difficult position tonight. They are 3-5 versus the spread when playing with 0 days rest. They are also 3-5 versus the spread when off an upset win as an underdog. The Heat are playing their best basketball and they come in fresh and well-rested. They are 8-1 versus the spread since end of January, 7 of those wins coming outright. That streak began with a 9 point win over Sacramento. Last season's games were both close, decided by 4 and 6 points. With the schedule in their favor, grab the points with the red hot Miami Heat. | |||||||
02-26-24 | Miami-FL +14 v. North Carolina | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Not many will want to back the Hurricanes in this spot. Miami has lost 6 straight games, one of them to North Carolina. The Hurricanes are 1-5 versus the spread in those games, 0-4 the past 4. That's going to keep people off them. The oddsmakers are forced to post a very large point-spread. That's giving us exceptional value on the road underdog. The Hurricanes have been playing some close games. Miami is off a 4-point loss and that the game against North Carolina was decided by only 3 points. The Tar Heels have also been playing some close ones. They are 5-3 their last 8 games and only one of the games was a win by more than 10 points. That was a 15-point win over Virginia Tech, a team which Miami is 2-0 against. The Hurricanes are on a long-term 43-24 ATS run, after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. They are also 8-2 versus the spread (7-3 straight up) their last 10 tries, revenging a home loss vs opponent and 7-2 ATS their last 9 road games where the total was 150 to 154.5. The Hurricanes won outright here last February. Give me the points! | |||||||
02-25-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Clippers | Top | 123-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Give me the points with Sacramento in this important Pacific Division battle. The Clippers won both this season's meetings but both of those were in 2023. The Kings have been playing well on the road since losing here earlier and they are 44-25-1 versus the spread their last 70 tries in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230. The Clippers are 1-5 versus the spread their last 6 games. Their last 4 wins have all been by 6 or less. The Kings are off consecutive wins and their alst loss was by only 5. This game is also likely going to be decided late. Grab the points. **PACIFIC DIV GOM** | |||||||
02-25-24 | Minnesota v. Nebraska -6.5 | Top | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Minnesota has been printing money for its backers this season. The Gophers have been excellent versus the point-spread all season and they beat Nebraska by 11 back in December. Their ATS success comes to a screeching halt this evening though. Nebraska has been strong at home this season and the Gophers lost by 11 here on this exact day last year. The Cornhuskers are a perfect 6-0 versus the spread their past 6 tries when revenging a road loss vs opponent. They are 17-8 ATS their last 25 tries. With a 5-1 ATS record this month, 3-0 ATS the last 3, Nebraska is playing better than it was for the earlier meeting. The Gophers are 20-41-1 ATS their last 62 a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Lay the points with Nebraska this evening. | |||||||
02-25-24 | Long Beach State v. Hawaii -2.5 | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
A trip to Hawaii isn't easy on students. Coaches can help them avoid distractions but there's the physical toll of the trip itself. There's also a tough defensive team waiting for them upon arrival. The Warriors are 10-6 here. They make scoring difficult. Visiting schools score 67.7 points per game here. Long Beach State allows more than 77 points per game on the road. The Warriors are 5-3 versus the spread their last 8 tries as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick. They lost last month at Long Beach State but they beat the Beach by 9 here last season. They're undefeated at home this month including a revenge win. They will help close out our Saturday with another win and cover. | |||||||
02-24-24 | Gardner-Webb v. North Carolina-Asheville -3 | Top | 78-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Small line but this should be a big win in this Big South Conference "Battle of the Bulldogs" this afternoon. The Gardner Webb Bulldogs won at Gardner Webb but they only have 5 wins in 16 road games. The UNC Asheville Bulldogs are 12-1 at home. They outscore teams by an average of 18.9 points here! UNC Asheville is 5-0 versus the spread its last 5 home games where the total is 150 to 154.5. Gardner Webb is 1-6 versus the spread (0-7 straight up) its last 7 tries, in a road game where the total is 150 to 154.5. UNC Asheville has thrived in the revenge role and is 9-4 versus the spread its last 13 tries, when off a conference loss. UNC Asheville beat GW by 12 here last season. Lay the points. | |||||||
02-24-24 | Indiana +4.5 v. Penn State | 74-83 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
The Nittany Lions upset the Hoosiers at Indiana. Now the Hoosiers will do the same right back to them. The Hoosiers have won 12 of their last 20 games here. Off 3 straight losses, they really need this game. The Hoosiers are 5-3 versus the spread when off a loss against a conference rival, 17-12 ATS the last 3 years. The Nittany Lions are 4-7 versus the spread after scoring 80 points or more. Penn State is also 3-6-1 ATS its last 10 as a favorite. Give me the points with Indiana. | |||||||
02-23-24 | Hornets v. Warriors -12.5 | 84-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
The Charlotte Hornets upset the Jazz last night and have actually won a few in a row. Reality will set in tonight. The Golden State Warriors blew out the Lakers 128-110 last night and are 8-2 straight up and versus the spread their last 10 games. They had to travel last night. The Warriors did not. The Warriors are 3-0 their last 3 games against teams from the East. They beat Indiana, Philadelphia and Brooklyn by 56 combined points, an average of nearly 19 per game. The Hornets are 9-17 versus the spread on the road and this will be another beating. | |||||||
02-23-24 | North Florida v. Jacksonville | Top | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
Home-court means a great deal to each of these clubs. The Ospreys are 10-4 at home but 5-9 on the road. The home/road differences are even greater for Jacksonville. The Dolphins are 2-13 away but 10-1 at home. The Ospreys won at North Florida. Now the Dolphins will win at Jacksonville. The Dolphins allow only 59.5 points per game at home. The Ospreys allow 81.4 points per game on the road. The Dolphins are 7-1 straight up and versus the spread their last 8 tries in a home game where the total is 135 to 139.5. It was on this day (2/23) 2 years ago that Jacksonville beat North Florida 71-39. The Dolphins will repeat history and will improve to 4-1 versus the spread in five tries when playing with road revenge. | |||||||
02-22-24 | Pistons v. Pacers -11.5 | 115-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
The Pistons still find themselves on the road, even after the break. They are 0-2 versus the spread after 3 or more days rest and 0-5 ATS after playing 3 consecutive road games. They are 4-23 on the road, getting blown out in many of those. The Pacers beat the Pistons by 8 at Detroit but the game at Indiana wasn't even close. The Pacers won 136-113. Detroit hung with the Pacers for a half but didn't have the firepower to keep it up for the whole game. With the Pistons averaging 113.9 points on the road and the Pacers averaging more than 126 at home, that's likely to happen again. The Pacers are 9-2, both straight up and versus the spread, against division foes. They will pull away and crush this team. | |||||||
02-21-24 | Furman +7.5 v. Samford | Top | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Too many points. Samford can really score but so can the Paladins. Furman won this season's first meeting by 10 points. The Paladins have won 4 straight in the series and 9 of the last 10. Four of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 10 or fewer points, one of those going to Overtime. Samford is off a 4-point loss. Furman has won 3 straight games, the margin of victory growing with each one. The Paladins are 5-1 versus the spread their last 6 tries when listed as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. The Paladins are also 11-1 ATS versus good offensive teams after at least 15 games have been played, good being defined as teams which score 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Grab the points. | |||||||
02-19-24 | Iowa State v. Houston -9.5 | 65-73 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
They beat them at Iowa State but the Cyclones aren't built to go on road and to contend with a team like these Houston Cougars. They feed off the energy at home but all 5 of their losses have come on the road or at a neutral site. They are 5-8 versus the spread their 13 versus good defensive teams - allowing | |||||||
02-19-24 | North Carolina Central v. Norfolk State -6 | Top | 74-80 | Push | 0 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The Spartans lost in the MEAC Championship game last season. They are determined to get back there and to win it this year. They are gearing up to do so and that means beating teams like NC Central when they come for a visit. The Eagles are off back to back losses. The Spartans are off a victory. The Eagles won this season's first meeting. They aren't as good on the road though and the Spartans are undefeated at home. In 10 games here, they outscore teams by a 87.6 to 62.8 average score. The Spartans are also 6-1-1 versus the spread their last 8 tries when playing with road revenge. They are 5-0 ATS their last 5 tries as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and they will get us a win and cover tonight. | |||||||
02-18-24 | Memphis +4.5 v. SMU | Top | 79-106 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
The Tigers may be wounded but they are still very dangerous. Prior to losing their last game to North Texas, they had won 3 straight. They have also defeated SMU 4 straight times. The Tigers are especially deadly as underdogs. Over the last 3 years, they are 14-5 versus the spread, when getting points. This season, they are 4-2 in the underdog role with 4 outright victories. The Mustangs lost a close 3-point game at Memphis in January. Revenge isn't much of a motivator for them though as they are only 5-9 versus the spread their last 14 tries in the road revenge role. The Mustangs are 12-18 ATS their last 30 tries when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games and they are 4-8 ATS their last 12 tries versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Give me the points! | |||||||
02-18-24 | Loyola-Chicago v. Rhode Island +4.5 | 77-67 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
The Ramblers are strong at home but beatable on the road. They are 11-16 versus the spread the L3 years when off a conference victory. During that time, they ware 1-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Though they are off consecutive ATS victories on the road, the first a big SU win and the second a close 2-point loss, the Rams have also been much stronger at home. They are 9-4 here, averaging 88 points. They've won 4 of their last 6 games here. Three of those were decided by 4 points or less. Give me the points with Rhode Island! | |||||||
02-17-24 | Arizona State v. Arizona -18.5 | 60-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
The Wildcats have a score to settle. The Sun Devils beat them by a point here last season. Arizona did go on to lay a beating on its instate rivals in the Pac-12 Tournament. Yet, the Wildcats are going to be determined to make this one hurt. Arizona is 12-4 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record. The Wildcats average 93.4 points per home game. Arizona State is 0-3 versus the spread when the total is 150 to 159.5. The Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS their last 7 tries with a total in that range. They average only 67 points per road game. This will be a "cake-walk." | |||||||
02-17-24 | St. Joe's v. Duquesne -2 | Top | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
Short line for Duquesne at home. The Dukes are 8-4 at home. The Hawks are 3-6 on the road. The Hawks narrowly won the first meeting, at St. Josephs. Duquesne won the last game here by 14 points. The Hawks are 1-3 versus the spread as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick. They have won just 8 of their last 39 road games which had a total of 145 to 149.5. Off a bad loss to Dayton, Duquesne will respond. The Dukes are 2-0 versus the spread, after scoring 60 points or less In that situation, they beat Fordham by 9 and they went on the road and beat St. Bonaventure by 6. Dukes do it again! | |||||||
02-16-24 | Harvard +9 v. Cornell | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This is a case of too many points. Cornell was favored by 5.5 points over Harvard here last season, also a mid-February game. The Crimson won outright by 17 points! Having lost this season's first meeting, the Crimson are coming in with another upset on their minds. Harvard dominated Dartmouth last game. Cornell is off a tough 2-point loss to Yale. Though the Big Red covered the spread in that game, they are only 5-11 against the number of their last 16 games played in February. Cornell can really score but Harvard is 19-7-1 its last 27 against the spread versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Harvard is also 3-0 against the spread its last 3 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Grab the points. | |||||||
02-15-24 | Utah Valley v. California Baptist -2.5 | Top | 69-46 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
The Wolverines took the first meeting by a score of 65-58. That was at home and they are 2-11 on the road. The Lancers are 10-4 at home. They limit visiting teams to less than 64 points per game. The point spread is low partly because Cal Baptist has lost 3 straight games versus the number. The Lancers are 5-2 against the spread their last 7 lined games, after 3 straight non-covers. The Lancers have to win this one as they face the best team in the conference next, the first of 3 straight road games. Lay the small number! | |||||||
02-15-24 | Bucks -11 v. Grizzlies | 110-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies fought tooth and nail to beat the Rockets last night. They will feel the effects of that victory tonight. They are 3-6 against the spread this season, when playing with 0 day's rest in between games, 0-3 ATS when playing a home game after playing a home game the previous day. They were outscored 114 to 102 in those 3 home games and none game against a team as strong as this one. The Bucks are 30-19-1 ATS their last 50 tried, when off an upset loss as a favorite. They lost by 41 points here last season and will return the favor with a big blowout win of their own tonight. | |||||||
02-14-24 | Tennessee v. Arkansas +8.5 | Top | 92-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Tennessee is a very strong team but Arkansas is much better than most bettors realize. These were both top 10 teams in this year's preseason rankings. Public perception is providing us with a very generous line on a talented and live underdog. The Razorbacks have under-achieved but they have turned the corner. They won their last game and have 2 wins their last 3 games. The Razorbacks are 9-4 SU at home and 38-9 here the last 3 years. They are 11-1 SU their last 12 home games where the total is 150 to 154.5 The Volunters are 6-5 on the road, only 3-8 against the spread. They are 8-13-1 versus the spread their last 22 tries, in a road game where the total is 150 to 154.5. They are off a loss to the Aggies and have dropped 2 of their last 4. The Razorbacks have beaten the Volunteers the last few meetings here and they are 10-3 the last 13 here. In a game they could end up winning outright, let's grab all those points! **SEC GOY** | |||||||
02-14-24 | South Carolina v. Auburn -11 | 61-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
South Carolina is one of the bigger surprises of the season. Picked to finish in the basement, or at least near the bottom, of the competitive SEC Conference, the Gamecocks have thrived. They won't sneak up on the Tigers though and Auburn is a double-figure favorite for a reason. When the Tigers win, they win big. Their last 6 victories have all come by at least 14 points. They have beaten the Gamecocks 6 straight times, the last 5 of those all came by greater than 10 points. The Tigers are 10-5, both straight-up and against the spread, their last 15 off a conference loss. They are also 5-0 versus the spread the past 5x that they home favorites of 9.5 to 12 points. This will be another cakewalk. | |||||||
02-13-24 | New Mexico v. Nevada -2 | Top | 83-82 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
They say that an elephant never forgets. Apparently a "Wolf Pack" rarely does either. Nevada is an exemplary 79-50 against the spread its last 129 lined games, when playing with road revenge. That includes a 15-7 against the spread record when playing with revenge from a road loss of 20 or more points. Think the Wolf Pack remember last month's 89-55 throttling at New Mexico? You better believe it! Since that beating, the Wolf Pack have won 3 straight, both straight up and versus the pointspread. The Lobos have dropped 2 of their last 3. They've been underdogs twice this season and came up short in both instances. Lay the small number! | |||||||
02-13-24 | Heat +8.5 v. Bucks | 123-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
I've now played on the Milwaukee Bucks twice in a row. The Bucks crushed Charlotte on the weekend and they dominated Denver last night. Tonight's game presents a far greater challenge. Last night's win was a big one. The Bucks were home underdogs against the world champions and they served notice that they deserved more respect than that. That's exactly the type of win that a team can experience a let down from. The Bucks are 3-8 straight up and against the spread their last 11 tries, when off a SU win as an underdog. The Heat have won 4 of their last 6 and both losses came by 8 or less. They are 5-1-1 ATS after playing 3 or more consecutive home games. Take the points! | |||||||
02-12-24 | Kansas +3 v. Texas Tech | Top | 50-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Time will tell but I believe that they've got the wrong team favored in this one. I love a good home underdog as much as the next guy. The problem is Texas Tech isn't even a home underdog. The Red Raiders are laying points against a top 5 Kansas team. Short-handed or not, the Jayhawks are still the stronger team. The Jayhawks are battling through some adversity as they are short-handed. The statuses of McDowell and McCuller are both up in the air. Important players that make the Jayhawks better. They just beat Baylor without them though, the defense elevating and delivering a peak performance. The Red Raiders have battled illness themselves and are also coming off a strong defensive game. They are only 11-19 ATS their last 30 tries, after allowing 60 or less. Kansas is already 2-0 ATS as an underdog. The Jayhawks have beaten the Raiders 8 of the last 9 times and 3 of the last 4 meetings were decided by 2 buckets or less. Grab the points. | |||||||
02-12-24 | Nuggets v. Bucks +1.5 | 95-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
The Bucks are back. I won with them when they throttled Charlotte in their last game. Charlotte is weak and it allowed Doc Rivers' team the opportunity to work through some of their issues and restore their confidence. The 36 point blowout victory followed by 2 days of rest was exactly that they needed. Doc Rivers said this after the last game: "I thought we set a tone defensively. We were flying around tonight. Our energy was high." Now the Bucks will get a chance to host the defending champions. The timing couldn't be better. The Nuggets just lost their last game by 29 points. They are 7-13-1 against the spread, as road favorites. The Nuggets beat the Bucks in Denver this season, just as they did last year. Last season, the Bucks beat them here at Milwaukee. Tonight, they will do it again. | |||||||
02-11-24 | Seton Hall v. Villanova -5 | 54-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Villanova's strong homecourt defense will make the difference in this afternoon's game against the Seton Hall Pirates. Seton Hall allows 69.4 points per road game. The Wildcats only permit 63.9 points per home game. Visiting teams average less than 30 first half points and hit just 40% of their field goals. The Wildcats are 6-1 against the spread when the O|U line was in the 130 to 139.5 range. The Wildcats are 2-0 ATS when playing a home game with an total of 130 to 134.5. They are also 5-2 ATS their last 7 as home favorites of 3.5 to 6 points. The Wildcats lost a close one at Xavier last game but they pounded Providence in their last home game. They will bounce back with another big home win. | |||||||
02-10-24 | Oakland v. Wright State -3.5 | Top | 74-60 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Wright State is one of the fastest teams in the country. The Raiders can run visiting teams right out of the building. They average 87.7 points per home game and 88.8 points a game in Horizon League play. They connect on a very high 56.4% of their field goals, in this building. Oakland struggles against top level competition. The Golden Grizzlies are 1-3 against the spread their last 4 against teams with a winning record. That brings them to 8-14-1 ATS their last 23 tries, when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. These teams will face each other again on February 25th, at Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies will have a chance in that one but not today. The Raiders are 9-3 SU and 7-5-1 ATS their last 13 as a host in the series. Unable to contend with the pace, the Golden Grizzlies aren't going to know what hit them! | |||||||
02-10-24 | Clemson v. Syracuse +4.5 | 77-68 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Off their upset win at North Carolina, my feeling is that the Tigers are ripe for a letdown on Saturday afternoon. Clemson is 1-3 straight up and against the spread, when coming off a win over an ACC rival. They are also 5-9 ATS when off a SU win overall. The ACC is always difficult but the Orange have also played some strong non-conference opponents like Gonzaga, Tennessee and Oregon. Clemson won't scare them. There have been some issues on the road but the Orange are 11-1 at home. The only time that they were home underdogs, the Orange smashed NC State by 12 points. This has long been a strong role for Syracuse. The Orange are 14-5, both SU and ATS, as home underdogs of 3 or less, or pick. Grab the points. | |||||||
02-09-24 | Hornets v. Bucks -14 | Top | 84-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
The Milwaukee Bucks played last night but that won't save the Charlotte Hornets from the beating which is coming their way. The Bucks won this season's earlier meeting by 31. Charlotte definitely hasn't gotten any better since then and is walking into a hornet's next. The coaching change to Doc Rivers hasn't paid immediate dividends for Milwaukee. The Bucks have now lost 3 straight games and 5 of their last 6. To be fair, 5 of those games were on the road and last night's was against a top level team from the West, the one with the most road wins of any team in the NBA. Clearly, this is a big drop in class. Charlotte lost at Detroit back on January 24th. That marked the first loss of the Hornets' current 9-game losing streak. Seven of their last 8 have come and the Hornets still couldn't get a win. The only road game over that time resulted in a 20-point loss. The Bucks next 2 games come against the defending NBA champions and the defending Eastern Conference champions, Denver and Miami. After that, the Bucks go on the road again. Rivers knows his team needs a big win and that he needs one, too. He will make sure that that the Bucks don't squander this opportunity. | |||||||
02-09-24 | UC San Diego v. Hawaii | Top | 86-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is splendid value. We get Hawaii at home, playing with revenge and we don't even have to lay any points. Hawaii is 31-15 at home the last 3 seasons. Uc San Diego is 15-25 on the road. This is no easy place to play and that's not just because of the travel factor. The Warriors 12-6 straight up their last 18 off a loss, won their last home game by 10 points. They allow only 66 points a game here. It was 365 days ago that they beat UC San Diego here by 7 points. Home court will reign supreme and the Warriors will win again tonight! | |||||||
02-08-24 | Bulls v. Grizzlies +6.5 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
The Bulls have the talent edge and are healthier. They've got plenty of their own injuries though and they're on the road. They're also the type of team that the Grizzlies can outwork. When they're at their best, the Bulls can be quite good. They beat Minnesota last game. That was at Chicago. They are only 9-15 on the road. They've got Orlando on deck and the Magic beat them twice. A look-ahead spot past Memphis. The Grizzlies are 20-5 against the spread their last 25 against teams from the Central. Grab the points. | |||||||
02-07-24 | Portland v. Gonzaga -26 | 64-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
The Bulldogs lost to St. Mary's last game. They're going to be in a bad mood. Portland is showing up at a bad moment. Not that there's ever a good time for the Pilots to play here. They last played here one year ago and they lost by 40. The score was 61-28 by halftime and 115-75 by the end of the game. The Pilots are off a couple of wins but those were at home and came against Pacific and Pepperdine. They are 4-10 against the spread their last 14 against winning teams. They are also 4-10 ATS their last 14, when off a conference win. Long-term, that is an ugly role for the Pilots. They are 45-74, not counting pushes and non-lined games, their last 119 tries, off a conference win. Lay the points in what will be another 30+ point rout. | |||||||
02-07-24 | Cavs v. Wizards +11.5 | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
The Wizards may not be a very good team but this is a case of the Cavaliers laying "too many points." Everyone is high on Cleveland right now and down on Washington. That's led to the Wizards catching double-digits at home. They're bad but they're not "that bad." The Cavaliers weren't even laying this many points for the 2 games at Cleveland. Washington is off a blowout loss to Phoenix. The Wizards last 3 games against Eastern Conference opposition have been a lot closer though, an 8 point loss to Miami, a 14-point win over Detroit and a 4-point loss to New York. The Wizards are also 12-9 against the spread off a loss of 10 or more points and 11-6 ATS after allowing 130 or more. The Cavaliers are 16-24-2 ATS their last 42 tries when up against a losing team in the 2nd half of the season. Washington is well rested and has tomorrow off. Cleveland faces Brooklyn tomorrow. Let's take what the books are offering and cash in with the big points on the home underdog Wizards. | |||||||
02-06-24 | Canisius +4.5 v. Niagara | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Canisius is off a bad loss and has struggled of late. That has led to a nice underdog line against an inferior opponent. The Golden Griffins also struggled to start last season. But by February, they turned things around. They're 12-5 against the spread their last 17 in February. This team is fully capable of doing the same and it starts tonight. The Golden Griffins beat the Purple Eagles handily at Canisius last season. The game at Niagara was decided by just 3 points. Niagara has lost 2 of its last 3 home games. All 3 were decided by 6 or less. Canisius is 25-13 against the spread the last 2 years against winning teams and has an excellent chance of winning this game outright. Grab the points. | |||||||
02-05-24 | Kings v. Cavs -4.5 | 110-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Both teams have been playing great but this one sets up nicely for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers are 9-5 against the spread and 11-3 straight up when the total was 230 or more. The Cavaliers are also 10-6-1 ats when in a revenge situation. Sacramento is at the end of a very long road trip. This will be the Kings' 7th straight road game. They last played at home on January 22nd. It's only natural for them to be thinking about getting home. Cleveland embarks on a road trip after this and will want to make sure to win at home tonight. Off 5 straight wins and with a 13-1 record their last 4 games, the Cavaliers are the hottest team in the NBA. The defense has been dominating and they keep it rolling on Monday! | |||||||
02-04-24 | Blazers v. Nuggets -13.5 | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The Trail Blazers hung with the champions for most of Friday's game but they will not be able to do do twice in a row. There was still some question about Jokic's health before Friday but the Denver big man dominated and is fully ready to go for this one. The Trail Blazers may have covered 48 hours ago but they are still 14-26-1 against the spread in divisional game the past 2 years. Portland was practically patting itself on the back for losing by only 12 on Friday. Denver will demonstrate its dominance from the opening tip tonight. The Nuggets are simply much stronger at both ends of the floor. A win of greater than 15 points is expected! | |||||||
02-03-24 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -4.5 | Top | 64-62 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
Give me Gonzaga at home in this battle of West Coast Conference heavyweights. These are the top 2 teams in the conference every year. The Bulldogs get more attention but the Gaels are also consistently very strong. This year is no different. Gonzaga is currently in a better place. The Gaels have had trouble in consecutive games. Hosting back to back lightweights, they were favored by 16.5 and 13.5 points. They struggled with those bad teams though and won each game by only 5 points. Last game, they beat Santa Clara 82-77. That level of play won't cut it tonight. The Bulldogs were favored by 14.5 points last game, roughly the same that St. Mary's was for its game. Unlike the Gaels, Gonzaga won by 34 points. That confidence building blowout is going to serve them well tonight! The Gaels are only 5-11-1 against the spread their last 17 tries, after scoring 80 or more points. The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS their last 10 tries, when facing a team which allows 64 or fewer points, through at least 15 games of the season. Gonzaga won by 26 last March in the WCC Tournament and by 9 in last season's regular season game here. Lay the points! | |||||||
02-03-24 | Warriors +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 134-141 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
With both teams off a game last night, its important to know how these teams typically handle playing 2 games in 2 days. A quick look shows that Golden State tends to do a much better job than Atlanta. The Warriors are 5-3 against the spread, when playing 2 games in 2 days. Upon closer examination, we find that they are 3-0 ATS when playing a road game after also playing on the road on the previous day. The Hawks, 1-13 against the spread after a non-conference games, are 1-7 against the spread when playing 2 games in 2 days, 0-2 ATS when playing a home game after playing at home the previous day. The Warriors had an easier time last night than the Hawks. They are 6-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more. Give me the points. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Jack Jones | $965 |
Ricky Tran | $708 |
Big Al McMordie | $662 |
Ross Benjamin | $640 |
Sean Murphy | $620 |
ProSportsPicks | $615 |
AAA Sports | $424 |
Nick Parsons | $306 |
Matt Fargo | $305 |
Dan Kaiser | $215 |