|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-12-22||Mike Trizano v. Seung Woo Choi -165||Top||1-0||Loss||-165||11 h 43 m||Show|
Can’t say that either fighter has been all that successful as of late, but I like Choi to win this bout on the UFC 281 prelims.
It was just over a year ago that Choi was on a three-fight win streak and seemed to be ascending in the Featherweight Division. Losses to Alex Caceres and Joshua Culibao have halted the momentum, but Choi looks to get back on track here against Trizano, who has also dropped two in a row.
Trizano did win The Ultimate Fighter back in 2018, but since then has never been able to get on a run like Choi did. He was knocked out by Lucas Almeida in June and now hopes to avoid a fourth loss in his last five fights.
Choi is the harder hitter here and should be able to avoid takedowns. His takedown defense has improved the last couple of years. He will enjoy a three-inch reach advantage over his opponent on Saturday.
Most concerning of all with Trizano is that he missed weight for this fight (by 1.6 pounds), which certainly calls durability into question. That’s why I’m stepping in here. 10*
|07-30-22||Alex Perez v. Alexandre Pantoja -182||Top||0-1||Win||100||24 h 8 m||Show|
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY!
|07-16-20||Dan Ige v. Calvin Kattar OVER 2.5||Top||0-1||Win||100||15 h 46 m||Show|
The set-up: Calvin Kattar is 21-4 and Dan Ige is 14-2. Kattar is a 3-1 favorite to win this fight, but I think Ige will take this one distance. Kattar has won his first seven UFC fights and four have come by knockout, but Ige won't be an easy "out," as he comes in on top form from as far as being in shape right now, as this is his third fight since early February.
The pick: I think Ige bides his time in the early rounds and doesn't push, instead waiting for an opportunity to score an upset after wearing Kattar down.
10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER 2.5 -134 Pinnacle Kattar/Ige.
|06-20-20||Marion Reneau v. Raquel Pennington -160||0-1||Win||100||59 h 21 m||Show|
The set-up: Raquel Pennington is 10-8 and Marion Reneau is 9-5-1. Pennington has split her last six fights and she comes off a loss to Holly Holm in January. Note that despite eight losses, Pennington only has been finished in two of those setbacks. Pennington has superior cardio and her striking game is vastly superior to Renau's. Renau has split her last six fights as well and enters off a March 2019 setback to Yana Kunitskaya.
The pick: While Pennington's fight vs. Holm was highly competitive, Renau was massacred in her loss. Note that Renau is 43 and Pennington is 32. Age is the final deciding factor for me in this matchup and all things considered, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay it with confidence.
8* DESTRUCTION on Raquel Pennington.