Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-13-23 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary UNDER 49.5 | Top | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Third meeting. First two O/U lines were 43.5 and 45.5. Now we've got a much higher line. An extra handful of points makes a big difference! The play is about more than line value. Calgary just isn't scoring right now. The Stampeders scored 15 in their last game, at Hamilton. The previous game, a home date with Montreal, was even worse. Calgary managed only 11 points. Both games finished with 40 or less. The score from this season's earlier game here was a little misleading due to Overtime. They had 46 points in regulation. Saskatchewan's previous three visits here had final scores of 40, 37 and 46. This one stays Under. *CFL TOM | |||||||
10-09-23 | Ottawa +6.5 v. Montreal | 3-29 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
In a rematch of last week's game at Ottawa, I'm grabbing the points with the revenge-minded Redblacks. Prior to Montreal's win last week, the previous four meetings (and six of the previous seven) between these teams had each been decided by 7 points or less. Ottawa has played very well here the past few years. In fact, they're 11-1 ATS their last 12 visits here. They don't want to get swept in the season seres and will be fighting with everything they've got. Grab the points. *Bone-Crusher | |||||||
10-06-23 | Edmonton Elks +8.5 v. Toronto | Top | 12-35 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The record isn't there but Edmonton has played much better than many people realize. Since their tough start, the Elks have won 4 of their last 7 games, a streak which coincides with Tre Ford taking over at QB. The 3 losses all came by single digits. Their last 3 road games have resulted in 2 outright wins and a 4-point loss. QB Ford, who ranks among the CFL leaders in terms of passing accuracy (70.1%), QB rating (108.7) and rushing yards (514), has been a big difference. He'll face a Toronto team with a banged-up secondary. The Elks are coming off a bye and inspired to try and make a late playoff push. They've won their last two visits to Toronto. Off a loss to Winnipeg and having already locked up top spot in the East, the Argos could easily look past the Elks. Edmonton will come to play. Grab the points! *CFL GOY | |||||||
08-26-23 | Hamilton v. BC -10 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 6 m | Show |
The Big Cats are playing Saturday in Vancouver but only one of them really has any claws. The Lions almost made a comeback in week 10 vs. the Riders while the Ti-Cats offered up the first win of the season for the lowly Elks. The Lions are 2-0 after a straight up loss this season and have outscored their opponents 72-28 in those two games. Both of those games were in Vancouver. In their last 2 games the Ti-Cats have averaged 210 yds passing/game while the Lions have averaged 388 yds passing/game. 3rd string QB Powell threw a TD pass his first game in relief back on July 13th, but since then he has started 3 games and thrown 3 INTs and no more TD passes. There are also some stark contrasts in team stats between the two squads. The Lions are 3rd in the CFL in avg points/game while the Ti-Cats are 9th in avg points against/game. The Lions are 2nd in net offence/game while the Ti-Cats are 8th in opposition net offence/game. The Lions are 1st in avg passing yds/game while the Ti-Cats are 7th in opposition passing yds/game. I could go on how high the Lions’ defence is in key stats and how low the Ti-Cats’ offence is in the related category, but I won’t. You get it. This is a mismatch and you should clearly lay the points and go with the Lions. | |||||||
08-18-23 | Winnipeg -4 v. Calgary | Top | 19-18 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The Stamps are running out of runway here to salvage their season. They need to get back on track but are in the middle of a string of games against the Lions, Argos and Bombers; the elite of the CFL. It isn’t going to happen this week. QB Maier is just too inconsistent. His last loss to the Bombers he only got 122 yards passing. In 4 of his last 9 games he has less than 170 yards passing. That doesn’t come close to cutting it in the pass happy CFL. He leads the CFL in INTs thrown and has the lowest passer efficiency rating among qualified QBs at 78.7. This is bad news against a Bombers’ “D” that has the 2nd best opponents’ pass efficiency rating (77.9) and opponents’ avg yards/pass (7.4). On the other side of the ball the Bombers lead the CFL in passing yards and are 2nd in rushing yards. Calgary’s “D” is in the bottom half of the CFL in both for opponents rushing and passing categories. The Bombers are 5-1 in their last 6 after an ATS loss while the Stamps are 1-5 in their last 6 ATS vs. the West. The spread is less because Brown will start in place of Collaros but Brown has too many weapons at his disposal. Lay the points and take the Bombers. | |||||||
08-17-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Hamilton -5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
I’m not going to make the mistake I made after the Bombers’ last bye week and their subsequent annihilation of the Lions, nor the scare the Elks, off their bye week, threw into the Bombers. The Ti-Cats are coming off a bye week and with a new OC in successful CFL coach Milanovich having two weeks to prepare, the Elks will be in trouble. It is also instructive to note that the Ti-Cats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when coming off a bye week and the Elks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Ti-Cats. It won’t help that the Elks will be without their leader on defence, DB Purifoy, as well as starting DE Brown. Both teams are at or near the bottom of the league in most important offensive and defensive stats so we aren’t expecting a Picasso here but should see two rejuvenated offenses as the Elks will go into their second game with their new OC, Jackson, as well. Both teams will not start the QB they started the season with. Lay the points and go with the Ti-Cats coming off their bye week. | |||||||
08-17-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Hamilton OVER 44 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
It has finally started to happen. The CFL’s offences are catching up to the defences. In week 10 the games averaged 60 points/game (second highest average total of the season). Passing led to 17 TDs with only 7 INTs. Both of these teams have new OCs with lots of experience sorting out CFL offensive opportunities and limitations. The Elks and their new starting QB Ford threw a real scare into the Bombers last week, jumping out to a 22-0 lead early. And this week WR Lewis, last year’s outstanding player in the East, will return to add another threat to the Elks’ passing game. The Ti-Cats hired Grey Cup winning coach Milanovich as their OC and he has had two weeks (coming off a bye) to prepare his new team. He was a QB coach for the NFL Colts so he should help QB Powell improve his production. Between two rejuvenated offences and two low rated defences this should be a high scoring affair. Take the over and enjoy the fireworks. | |||||||
08-11-23 | Saskatchewan v. Montreal -4.5 | Top | 12-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
The Roughriders have a short turnaround and have to travel for this one. With an inexperienced QB, a banged up D-line, O-line and WR corps this will be difficult for the Riders to be prepared for. It is also important to note that teams off only 4 days rest this season are 2-7 straight up and ATS. The Riders are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against teams with a winning record. Other things are more even as they are side by side in most team defensive categories in the CFL team stats rankings except for opposition offensive TDs, 1st downs allowed and avg. first down yards allowed, where the Als are 1st or 2nd and the Riders are 4th or 6th. It is hard to compare offensive team stats as most of the Riders’ were achieved under the auspices of injured first string QB Harris and QB Fajardo is a game time decision for the Als. Although the Als are 2nd to last in terms of sacks allowed they have only allowed 3 in their last two outings. Last week the Als also had four OLs ranked in the top ten for performance against the pass rush by PFF analysis. The Als are also last in sacks made but the addition of last year’s outstanding western defensive player DL Lemon two games ago started to pay dividends last week as he made 2 sacks, an INT and was the 4th rated DL by PFF analysis. Taking this all together makes this a fine play to lay the points and go with the Als. | |||||||
08-10-23 | Winnipeg -12 v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 38-29 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
These are two teams from different planets. Bombers are coming off a thrashing of the Lions while the Elks were shutout by the Lions the week before their bye. The Bombers are 6-2 while the Elks are 0-8 and on a 21-game home losing streak. It makes for a wild money line and lots of points for the spread lines. The Bombers are first in seven offensive categories while the Elks are last in 5 different defensive categories. There is no need to discuss the Elks’ sorry offensive stats rankings. They are starting 3rd string QB, Canadian Ford, hoping to jump start an offense coming off its second shutout of the season. Given that the Bombers are 1st in sacks made and the Elks are 6th in sacks allowed it could be a long night for Ford. Taking a close look at recent point spread history for these teams gives credence to the expectation of the Bombers to lay the points as high as they will be. The Bombers are 5-3 ATS in their L8 and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Elks. In their last 3 vs. the Elks they have won by at least 14 points. The Elks, having lost 21 in a row at home are 3-18 ATS in that stretch, are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 this season and 0-4 ATS after a bye week. None of this bodes well for the Elks so it is clear we should lay the points and take the Bombers on this one. | |||||||
08-06-23 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan +2.5 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 41 h 27 m | Show |
The CFL has slowly begun to figure RedBlacks’ new sensation, QB Crumb, out. It already began two weeks ago vs. the Stamps as they put an LB in place to “spy him.” They didn’t quite get it down pat, but last week the TiCats did as they put pressure on him and suffocated him in the pocket. He ran as many times as he completed passes. That is not a way to succeed in the CFL. The RedBlacks have five receivers either out or questionable with injuries. That won’t make it any easier for Crumb. The Roughriders held both the Lions’ and the Argos’ offences in check over the last two weeks and should have an easier time of it vs. the RedBlacks. This is backup QB Fine’s 3rd start in a row. He should be starting to feel more comfortable and his solid numbers over the past two weeks should translate into points. Take the points and the Riders for the win. | |||||||
08-05-23 | Montreal -2.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
With the Argos running away with the East title, second place is still up for grabs. By winning this, the Als could put the TiCats to bed and make it between the Als and the RedBlacks. Given that star offseason signing QB Mitchell is out again long term and Hamilton is down to their 3rd string QB this should be it. The Als won handily, 38-12, in the first meeting between these two and would take the season series with a win Saturday. QB Fajardo has been outstanding after a down year last season and is 4th in pass efficiency, 3rd in yds/pass and 1st with the lowest interception rate. On top of that the Als have the highest graded O-line according to PFF. 3rd stringer Powell for the TiCats has the lowest avg. passing depth in the league so he won’t be able to threaten the Al’s defense. Powell has come in to lead an offense that sports the 2nd worst turnover ratio, INTs thrown and penalty rate. And to top it off Hamilton’s last two starting LTs are hurt, which will be dangerous for the backside outside rush. The other problem for the TiCats is their “D” has been less than stellar. They had a solid outing against a mediocre offense in the RedBlacks but are worst in the league in points allowed, opposition TDs, avg. 1st down plays against and 2nd worst in avg. rush yds against, number of opposition 1st downs, opposition pass efficiency allowed, 30+ yard plays allowed, and opposition yards/play. Time to lay the points and go with the Als. | |||||||
08-04-23 | Toronto -8 v. Calgary | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 48 m | Show |
Eventually the Argos undefeated string will end but not this week. They are 6-0 straight up and ATS. Their offence sputtered a bit last week but between their top notch “D” and their special teams they still put up over 30 points and kept the RoughRiders out of the end zone until garbage time. The Stamps only pulled off field goals last weekend vs. the Als. The Stamps are coming off only 4 days rest and their chaotic offense under QB Maier is too mistake prone for the Argos with their league leading +16 turnover ratio, not to take advantage of. Maier has thrown 11 INTs while the Argos have made 16 INTs. The Stamps rush game averages only 85 yds/game (7th in the league) and only 51 yds/game for the last 3 games while the Argos only allow 63 yds/game (2nd in the league). This should make it even tougher for the Stamps pass game. The Stamps do not match up well with the Argos in so many ways and will not be able to make up the spread. | |||||||
08-03-23 | BC v. Winnipeg UNDER 45 | Top | 14-50 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 40 m | Show |
Two Western Conference titans will go head-to-head with the top defence in the league and the most experienced defence in the league. The Lions are 1st or 2nd in 13 team defense categories while the Bombers are 1st or 2nd in 7 team defense categories. The key category for both is points against where the Lions are 1st and the Bombers are 2nd. The Lions “D” has “pitched” two shutouts this year and only allowed the Bombers 6 points in their first game in Winnipeg this season. The Bombers are coming off a bye so they should do a bit better but not enough to get to a high score. The Lions will start their 2nd string QB Evans again this week and he hasn’t had great success against defensive coordinator Hall’s Bombers in the past. So, in spite of these offenses being highly ranked, they will be in tough for this game. The Lions are 7-1 in their last 8 for unders on the road, and 10-1 for unders in their last 11 vs. the West. The Bombers are 5-1 in their last 6 for unders vs. teams with a winning record, 5-1 in their last 6 vs. the West, and 4-0 for unders after an ATS loss. There are many more ways these teams favor unders so it’s safe to say playing the under for this game is a good thing. | |||||||
07-29-23 | BC -7 v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
The sad sack Elks are in tough. This won’t be the night they win their first in 20 games at home or when they cover the spread. The Lions are just too good. The Lions’ “D” is first in the CFL in points allowed and net offence allowed. The Elks’ offence is last in points scored and net offence. The Lions’ “D” is second in sacks while the Elks offence has allowed the 3rd most sacks in the league. QB Cornelius for the Elks has the worst pass efficiency rating (for qualified QBs) in the league and the Lions have the best pass defence in the league. The Elks have given up the most turnovers, most interceptions and have the worst turnover ratio (-6). Have you heard enough yet? The Elks allow 144 yds/game rushing (worst in the CFL) and the Lions get their star RB Mizzell, back in the lineup. And just for a clincher the Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 while the Elks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7. The Elks are in big trouble. They were shutout last game against the Lions. Saturday will not be enough of an improvement to stop the Lions. Pick the Lions and lay the points. | |||||||
07-29-23 | Saskatchewan +11 v. Toronto | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 44 m | Show |
The Argonauts have been a juggernaut but not as heavy a favorite as the books are offering. They will be missing a couple of receivers and DL Costigan. Modest losses to say the least. What isn’t accounted for is the return of at least 2 and maybe 3 receivers to the Riders lineup. The Riders will also get starting center Godber back to stabilize their problematic O-line in front of 2nd string QB Fine who will have had a week of reps, film and confidence building after a tough outing against the vaunted BC Lions defence. With Godber back the rush game must improve some which in turn will improve the pass game. On defence the Riders get stud DL Lanier back to add to a pass rush that was successful vs. the Lions last week. The Riders also signed all-star and INT leader in 2021, Washington. Although he won’t start he should get a chance to make a difference When comparing the two squads, some key areas are very close. In opposition net offence allowed, the Riders are 3rd and the Argos are 4th and in first downs allowed those positions are reversed. In points allowed the Riders allow 24.5/game while the Argos allow 22.2. In passing “D” the Argos are 8th which should allow a little more success for QB Fine. When all is said and done, expect the Riders to lose the game but to cover the spread. | |||||||
07-28-23 | Hamilton v. Ottawa -3.5 | Top | 16-12 | Loss | -108 | 43 h 26 m | Show |
It looks like QB Mitchell will be back for the TiCats this week. It really isn’t any reason to be excited as he has some daunting stats to take note of. He didn’t do well for the Stamps last season and lost his place to Maier. But this season his rough ways continued with a 58% completion rate, 53.3 passer efficiency rating and 4 INT vs. 1 TD pass to start out with before he was hurt. He is returning to play against the best “D” in the league for avg. rushing gain against, 2nd best rush yards against/game and 3rd best in first downs allowed. His own offence had a very weak run game against the Stamps last week with only 38 yards total on the ground. It could even be worse this week. DB Dandridge for the RedBlacks has the second most INTs in the league. He along with the rest of the Red Blacks “D” will be looking to feast on an O-line that has to pass block all game long and adding to their 4th highest sack total in the league at Mitchell’s expense. On the other side of the ball Crumb will have even more reps in practice as starting QB to fine tune his game against a Hamilton “D” that has allowed the most points against, TDs and yards/play in the CFL. They are also 2nd to last in first downs allowed. Crumb will also have little to fear against a defence with the 2nd least INTs and least turnovers caused. With the Red Blacks top rated run game (that includes Crumb himself), Crumb will have plenty of options and time for his pass game. Clearly you should lay the points and take Ottawa for this one. | |||||||
07-23-23 | Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 45 | Top | 43-41 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
Both these teams had confidence boosting wins last week. This week each will face a defence in the top half of the league and both offences continue to languish in the bottom quarter of the league. Calgary will have put together a package to deal with Ottawa’s QB Crumb who surprised everyone in the second half of week 6’s come from behind win over an aging Bombers’ defence with his mobility and ability to find receivers. The Stamps will not be surprised and will disguise the pass rush and run defence that should be problematic for the QB making his second career start. Calgary’s Maier has had problems when he is hurried. Ottawa is second in the league in sacks. With Mills and the Calgary run game struggling last week against the Riders, they will not have an easier time this week against the 2nd best run defence in the league. The Red Blacks have the 3rd highest number of sacks as well so with troubles running the football Maier, will be in some difficulty trying to pass effectively. Ottawa and Calgary already have the worst and 3rd worst passing yards/game numbers so put this all together and we have another early season defensive battle on our hands. Take the under and enjoy the domination of the defences. | |||||||
07-22-23 | Saskatchewan v. BC -10 | Top | 9-19 | Push | 0 | 17 h 49 m | Show |
The Riders have devoted fans across the country. No one wants to rain on their enthusiasm. Sorry Riders fans, this doesn’t look good. You are going to have to pick the Lions on this one even when your boys are given maybe double digit points. It starts with injuries. QB Harris is out for the season. Starting center Godber is out and maybe LT Council. The Riders O-line has struggled immensely giving up 4 sacks/game (7 last week) against a Lions’ pass rush that has the 2nd most sacks in the league. The Riders are last in avg. rushing gain on 1st down. The Lions’ “D” allows the 2nd least avg. yards rushing on 1st down. QB Fine is starting his first game. It could get ugly for pass protection. And even if he has some time occasionally, the Lions’ “D” is 1st or 2nd in almost every category in the league on pass defense. On the other side of the ball the Riders will be missing MLB Dean, DL Lanier and at least two starting DBs. Their “D” has been solid this year but won’t be able to get off the field with all the 2 and outs the Rider “O” will serve up. And the Lions’ run game is rounding into form. It will allow their very solid O-line to set up solid pass protection for QB Adams to find his bevy of star receivers (Whitehead, Rhymes, Hatcher and now Hollins) and pick apart the hurting Rider “D”. To add insult to injury the Lions are coming off a bye week (teams are 6-1 this season after a by week) and are healthy. They are 5-0 ATS in their L5 at home and 7-3 ATS in their L10 after a bye. So, Riders fans, hold your nose, lay the points and take the Lions. Everyone else, just leave your nose out of it. | |||||||
07-15-23 | Winnipeg -9.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
The points offered in the Saturday game between the Bombers and the RedBlacks are the largest for a Bombers’ game since October 2022 when they were playing the hapless Elks. It seems like a lot until you look at the state of the RedBlacks’ offence. They are down to their 4th string QB who has never started a CFL game. In relief last week he threw 2 INTs on a team that already leads the CFL with 8 INTs given up. He is up against a Bomber D-line that is 2nd in the CFL in sacks and has the 2nd best rushing defence in the league. Given that the RedBlacks depend on their running game (3rd best in the CFL), all the Bombers need to do is fill the box to stuff the run and sit back while their D-line harries new QB Crumb and feast on his inexperienced attempts. The points on offer for this game would need to be well into double digits to make this viable to go against the Bombers. Don’t forget, the RedBlacks are last in the league in all four major passing categories (average gain/pass, passing TDs, 30+yards passing plays, passing efficiency). This is not going to miraculously improve in this game. Although the RedBlacks “D” has been respectable this season, they won’t be able to hold down the fort when they are on the field for most of the game. In the above-mentioned passing categories, the Bombers are 4th, 2nd, 2nd and 1st and in rushing yards/game they are 1st. It should prove to be a long night for the RedBlacks and no problem for you to lay the points and pick the Bombers. | |||||||
07-14-23 | Toronto -5.5 v. Montreal | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
The Argos and the Als are early season favs in the Eastern Conference. Argos are missing LT Cage and MLB Williams and LB Muamba. But their defence has been one of the top without those two LBs and with a rotating cast of DLs. Heninger is the only major absentee for the Als on the DL as top DB Evans is slated to return. The major problem for the Als is their O-line, healthy or not, just can’t seem to get the job done for the rushing game. The Als were last of all the teams that played last week, for rushing performance. This week they face an Argos “D” that is first in the CFL in run yards against, average run yards against and rush TDs. Given that the Als have also surrendered the most sacks in the CFL on QB Fajardo they will be in a tough place. With no threat of a run game, the Argos will be able to pin their ears back and go for it when Fajardo will be having to pass so often. On the offensive side of the ball, except for the Als' week run game the two teams are a saw off. Coach Dinwiddie of the Argos has his team 5-2 when coming off a bye week. The Argos were 2-1 in the series against the Als last season (losing only a mean nothing game in the last week of the season). The Argos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 against Eastern Conference opposition. The Als are in tough so lay the points and go with the Argos. | |||||||
07-13-23 | Hamilton v. Edmonton Elks +130 | Top | 37-29 | Loss | -100 | 42 h 46 m | Show |
By almost every metric these are the two worst defences in the CFL. TiCats have the worst average points and TDs allowed. The Elks have the worst opposition average net yards allowed, 1st downs allowed and average yards/play. In most of the above listed categories the other team is 2nd worst. There are some differences though that could be telling. While the TiCats have the 2nd worst average passing yards allowed, the Elks have the 3rd best. And the Elks have the second highest number of interceptions so far this year (2nd only to the Argos after their ridiculous 6 INTs against the Lions) while the TiCats have the 2nd least interceptions in the CFL. Last week the TiCats squeaked out a win over the RedBlacks and their 4th string QB while the Elks lost a heartbreaker by one point to the 3-1 Roughriders in a game they dominated in many facets and that they should have won. Hamilton only made 43% of their 2nd conversions while the Elks made 57% of theirs. Although the TiCats signed star running back Butler from the Lions this offseason, the Elks with Brown have had the superior running game this year and QB Cornelius has proven effective running the football this season. Both O-lines are banged up with Hamilton still missing star LT Figueroa and coming off only 5 days rest. The Elks have had 6 days rest and are playing at home. This should be the game the Elks break their long home losing streak and pull off the straight up w | |||||||
07-09-23 | Montreal v. BC -7 | Top | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
The Lions and the Als both had their offences humbled last week. Given that these two teams possess the top two defenses by the numbers, this could be a tough week. They are 1st and 2nd in terms of points allowed by the opposition offence, net offence allowed/game, passing yards allowed/game, and the opposition’s passing efficiency. The Als also are second in the league in interceptions which after throwing 6 picks last week will not be welcome news for Lions’ QB Adams. BC does have the highest average passing yardage/game and passing TDs but Montreal counters with the highest passing efficiency rating and average gain/pass. So where do the opportunities exist in this standoff. First of all BC’s WR Whitehead returns to action, making Sunday’s game the first all season that will feature him with Hatcher and Ryhmes (last season’s only three 1000 receivers on one team). Second, the Als will be missing two starting DBs, Evans and Lyon, so that will reduce QB Adams’ fear of picks. Evans has been especially effective as he is tied for the league lead in interceptions (BC will be missing one Starting DB). But third and most tellingly, the Als have allowed the 2nd most sacks in the CFL this year. The Lions’ defense has made more sacks than any other CFL team. That in tandem with the Als’ weak running game should spell a long night for QB Fajardo. Historically the Als have not fared well in Vancouver as they have only two wins since 2000. It doesn’t look like the Als will break that string of defeats in Week 5 either. Pick the Lions and lay the points. | |||||||
07-08-23 | Ottawa v. Hamilton UNDER 44.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
For Ottawa there is good news and bad news and then some sort of good news. Ottawa got their first win in week 4 and then their winning QB turned out to have a torn ACL and is now out for the season. The sort of good news is that star QB Masoli is back after a year off from a broken leg. Great to have him back, but welcome to the 2nd lowest scoring offense in the CFL. As the rest of the league is beginning to get enough reps on offence to shake off the rust and begin to string some plays into drives and hopefully into points, Masoli will be starting at square one. It won’t be pretty. His star favorite receiver from last year, Ellingsen, is still out and this year’s top recruit Evans is still out too. Luckily for him his “D” has been solid this year with the third best results in the league for yards allowed and points allowed by their opponent’s offence. They should be able to contain Hamilton’s offence, what with two starters on the O-line (including the off-season’s biggest signing LT Figueroa) Hamilton has their own problems with top signing QB, Levi-Mitchell, on the shelf. Backup Shiltz has slowly improved, with his best outing in week 4, but although they lead the league in red zone trips they have the third worst points for number in the league. What we have here is a perfect storm for a low total. They are the 2nd and 3rd worst teams in offense yards/game, last and 2nd to last big plays (20+ yds rush play; 30+ yds pass play) and major questions with unproven receivers on both sides. Put that together with under being 5-2 in both their last 7 in Hamilton and against each other and you have a pretty strong case. Another interesting stat is that by the end of week 4, 66% of games have been under and to start week 5 both games have been under. Going for the under with these two sputtering teams is a good call for this one. | |||||||
07-06-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Saskatchewan -7.5 | Top | 11-12 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
The Elks can’t catch a break. Still winless, they are coming off of 3 games in 11 days and a short week to prepare for their second road game in a row. Their O-line is still in a state of chaos with two more injuries, as QB Cornelius will return after losing his starters' role for last week. Consequently, they have allowed the most sacks in the CFL. The Elks are also last in offensive points and net yards in the CFL. To make matters worse their defense is last in total points allowed, last in rush yards allowed and they have allowed the most big plays(20+yds. rush, 30+ yds pass) of any “D” in the league. They are not in a good place in so many ways. Their pass “D” is a little more respectable but they are going against the 2nd top passer in the league in QB Harris. The Riders also have injury problems on their O-line but they at least are coming off a bye week. Two starters on the O-line are out and one more is questionable. Even so they still have the 3rd most productive ground game in the CFL with the dynamic duo of Hickson and Morrow. Given the Elks weak pass rush 9last in the league) and rush defence the Riders shouldn’t be troubled. As if the Elks don’t have enough problems they also have discipline problems as they have the 2nd most penalty yards against while the Riders have the 2nd least. All of this points to a Riders win and covering the spread. | |||||||
07-03-23 | BC -3 v. Toronto | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 44 m | Show |
It is only week 4 and already we have a big game between the last two remaining undefeated teams. Some pundits are calling it a pick ‘em match up. I disagree strongly. This means they will bail out and offer an over/under pick. But there is a clear play here. The easiest way to make sense of it is to look at the quality of the opposition each team has played. Much like Saturday’s game, one team has gone up against much tougher opponents. BC has played the Bombers (now 3-1), the Stampeders and of course the weak Elks. Toronto has faced the RedBlacks (1-2) and the TigerCats (0-3). Against weaker opposition the Argos’ defence has allowed more than 100 yards more per game than the Lions’ defence. The have also allowed opposing QBs to complete 77% (9th in CFL) of their passes while the Lions have allowed only a 57% (2nd in CFL) completion rate. BC’s stingy “D” has allowed a meager 7 pts/game while the Argos have allowed 22 pts/game. Yes the Argos are near the top with 399 yds/game offence, 37.5 pts/game and only 1 sack allowed but they have not faced anything close to the Lions’ defence which leads the league with 11 sacks. To add to their level of difficulty on Monday, the Argos will be without their starting LT Cage (a crucial position against league sack leader Betts who humbled all star LT Bryant in week 3). The Lions will be missing one of their star receivers, Whitehead, but they will have two of last year’s 1000 yard receivers back in the lineup. Rhymes and Hatcher missed the game against the Bombers but will return to give QB Adams more weapons. The Argos will also be missing MLB Williams and LB Muamba, so the CFL’s second leading rusher Mizzell will be harder to handle. It seems clear that the play is for the Lions to cover the spread. | |||||||
07-01-23 | Winnipeg -6 v. Montreal | Top | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
The Bombers were humbled last week against the Lions. They are a veteran team. They don’t lose their focus and run around like angry young men in practice to get back on track. They know that they have what it takes. Many of them took practices off this week to lick their wounds and reset. Star defender Jeffcoat will be back on the D-line and veteran CB Houston will be back in the secondary after being out against the Lions. They know Alouettes QB Fajardo has a banged-up O-line that has already averaged 5 sacks against a game to start the season and will be eager to take advantage. The Alouettes defence has done well against 2 of the 3 worst teams in the CFL so far this season. But now they are banged up with MLB Williams and star DB Evans on IR. DL Heninger may not play either. Bombers QB Collaros will have taken note and his proud veteran O-line will want to make amends after surrendering an unheard of 7 sacks against the Lions last week. The Bombers run game is 2nd best in the CFL in yards/game and without their starting MLB the Als will be in tough. Look for the Bombers and their varied passing and running attack to win and cover the touchdown. | |||||||
06-30-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Ottawa UNDER 42.5 | Top | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
This is the turtle derby with the two winless wonders, the Elks and the RedBlacks, doing battle. Both teams have struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball. So much so that they will both start new QBs this week. Doege had some good results in relief of Cornelius albeit in garbage time against the Argos last week while Adams did just OK in relief of the hapless Arbuckle. The QBs aren’t the problem as both teams have chaos causing O-lines that can’t control the line of scrimmage enough for their skill players to produce. And the Elks will be without starting LT Garnett this week. On top of that the little passing production the Elks had against the Argos will be reduced without star receiver Lewis and wily vet Arcenaux. The Elks defence hung in there for the first half against the Argos but just ran out of gas because their offence just couldn’t stay on the field long enough for them to catch their breath. Given that the RedBlacks seem to have mastered the 2 and out so far this year the Elks “D” should perform better. The Redblacks D-line should continue their successful ways against this woeful Elks O-line and its resultant weak rushing attack. These two teams’ offences are 8th and 9th in the league in total yards, passing yards and points scored. The Elks have averaged 14.7 points/game while the RedBlacks are even worse with a 13.5 points/ game avg. You can see where I’m headed here. In their last 9 head to head the under is 9-1 between these two teams. The Redblacks have had an under total for all 3 games this season, are 7-1 for the under in their last 8 week 4 games and 4-1 in their last 5 games in June. The Elks unders are 2-1 this season. Although the field is dry and artificial turf these two offences will mud wrestle their way to an under total on Friday night. | |||||||
06-25-23 | Toronto v. Edmonton Elks +6.5 | Top | 43-31 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
Everyone is high on the Argos after their 2022 Grey Cup win and week 2 victory over the TigerCats. But they were not dominant, especially in the air. The Elks improved defence held powerhouse BC to 22 points and QB Harris and Saskatchewan’s passing attack to 17 points. They haven’t given up a rush TD yet and that is the only way the Argos got TDs in their first game. The Elks haven’t’ won at home in a long time but they are 8-2 in their L10 at home vs. the Argos and 7-3 overall in their L10 vs. the Argos. The Argos are missing their top 2 receivers for this game and their starting C Ciraco is a game time decision. Chad Kelly hasn’t proven himself yet; only one full game and relief in the Grey Cup last year. Everyone is focused on the struggles of Elks’ QB Cornelius. He hasn’t been impressive, that’s for sure but the Argos will be missing monster DL Oakman and LB Muamba so the Elks’ iffy O-line might have a bit of a chance to help Cornelius out a little more. 6.5 is a lot of points to give the Elks on this one. I think they have a good chance to make use of those points and keep it close. Pick the Elks on this one. | |||||||
06-24-23 | Saskatchewan +3.5 v. Calgary | Top | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
After years at or near the top the Stampeders were humbled last season and are still moving in a downward direction. Hard to believe they are favored over the Roughriders who had some bad luck with illness and injury last year. The brothers Dickenson are going to do battle with the Roughriders’, Craig in a much more precarious situation than Dave has been after years of success with the Stamps. This desperation has filtered down into Craig’s Roughriders who are playing like there is no tomorrow. With veteran QB Harris at the helm the Roughriders had passing success against the Bombers last week that even outstripped what BC did in their surprising domination of the Bombers this week. Meanwhile new starter Maier for the Stamps was humbled against BC and only had modest success against the lowly Redblacks last week. Roughriders’ all-stars Moncrief(LB) and Marshall(CB) return this week as do starters Hawkins(LT) and Kelly(OL). These upgrades to the O-line should allow Harris to do even more of his magic. Maier and the Stamps will be missing their top WR Begleton as well as top RB Carey and starting LT Coker is still out. As Maier still really hasn’t found his footing he could struggle. ATS the Stamps are 2-8 over the last 10 after a win and 7-20 in their last 27 home games. Hard to believe the Stamps are so heavily favored. Take the points on offer to the Roughriders as they should win going away. | |||||||
06-23-23 | Montreal v. Hamilton UNDER 44 | Top | 38-12 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
Montreal has only played one game. They are barely out of pre-season and that means a disjointed offence in the CFL in June. Hamilton’s starting QB is a game time decision that seems to be leaning towards not playing. Hamilton’s O-line is banged up and dysfunctional. Starting LT (Figureroa) and RT(Riley) are both out and 5 other O-linemen are on IR. Top receiver Bayless is also out. Not a recipe for a successful offence. Both teams were already looking like they were going to depend on their defences this season. The under is 4-0 for the last 4 between these two teams in Hamilton. Under is 6-1 for the last 7 between these two teams. For Montreal unders are 6-1 in their last 7 following a win. Clearly with past records and underperforming offences in June you should take the under for this game. | |||||||
06-22-23 | BC v. Winnipeg UNDER 49 | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
The big dogs are playing a game already. The undefeated Bombers and Lions with their dominant defences will punish their respective offences in a classic early season battle. For the Lions two of their top receivers are out (Rhymes and Hatcher) and their third top receiver (Whitehead) is back and could be fragile. For the Bombers their star RB (Oliveira) is questionable which could be a setback for their league leading rush game. This game pits the #1 pass offence (Bombers) against the #1 pass defence (Lions). June in the CFL always gives the edge to the defence. The Lions’ defence is also #1 in points allowed with a miniscule 7.5 points against/game so far. Combine that with the Bombers only allowing 29 points against/game and you have a total of only 36.5 allowed/game by these two defences. In their last 6 games under is 6-0 for BC and their last 5 road games under is 5-0 (that includes two games in Winnipeg). An interesting stat is that the Bombers in their last 7 week 3 games have unders dominating 6-1. Go with the under and enjoy a smash mouth defensive battle. | |||||||
06-18-23 | Hamilton v. Toronto +122 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 122 | 73 h 46 m | Show |
Everyone has high hopes for Bo Levi-Mitchell in Hamilton. He did very little to justify those hopes in week 1 and things are looking tougher in week 2 against the Argo’s tough defence. His O-line is more banged up this week with Van Zeyl’s replacement Saxelid now being questionable. Top receiver White is also questionable. It looks like 2022 all-star and CFL interceptions leader Jamal Peters is back in the fold after being let go by the Falcons. He lined up as a starter during training this week. He along with Al’s defensive MOP Pickett, will bring last year’s top secondary back up to snuff. Although Grey Cup MOP Muamba looks like he will be out, newcomer MLB Williams, brought in from BC should help to pick up the slack as well along with all star McManis. Also, free agent DL Orimolade brought in from Calgary will improve the D-line as they lick their chops after seeing Levi-Mitchell get sacked 3 times in week 1. None of this bodes well with Levi-Mitchell’s attempts at resurrecting his career, especially since the Argo’s had a week to digest Mitchell’s game film against the Bombers. This will be Grey Cup reliever, Chad Kelly’s first year as a starter but his confidence is sky high and with a former CFL QB as his coach, Dinwiddie, he should be well prepared after seeing the film of the TiCat’s defence getting steamrolled by the Bombers in week 1. The Argos Coach Dinwiddie is 6-2 vs. the TiCats and 4-0 at BMO field. With an extra week of prep due to the bye and a league low five 1st year players the TiCats are in tough. Go with the Argos for the win on the Money Line | |||||||
06-15-23 | Calgary v. Ottawa UNDER 43.5 | Top | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 43 h 55 m | Show |
Week 1 went well with a 3-0 record. I am ready and willing to play for Week 2. Here is a great play for you. Analysis Calgary and Ottawa both lost in Week 1 and both are loathe to start the season 0-2. Both teams opened with low scoring results for their offence. 15 for Calgary and 12 for Ottawa. Typical June results in the CFL for offences that played their QBs for limited minutes in the pre-season and just don’t have the reps to be productive. Under is 5-1 for the Stamps after a loss in their last 6. The RedBlacks under is 14-6 after a loss. So clearly both teams stress defence in the week of prep after a loss. In their last 7 meetings under is 6-1. Ottawa still must start number 2 QB Arbuckle as Masoli still isn’t ready. Arbuckle threw 3 picks against a revamped Alouettes secondary. Ottawa will be missing starting RB Williams and WR Demon is nicked up but should play. It will be another long night for the RedBlacks offence. Calgary QB Maier struggled again against the Lions and will be missing a second O-line starter as Thornton is joining starting LT Coker on IR. Ottawa got 6 sacks against the Alouettes and harassed Fajardo all game. Calgary will also be missing last year’s leading rusher Carey and top receiver Henry is questionable. WR Philpot is still out. It won’t be a fun night for Maier. This will be a typical June CFL matchup with defences dominating and offences suffering from a lack of reps. Take the under for the total. | |||||||
06-11-23 | Saskatchewan +2.5 v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
These are the two with the lowest total for expected wins this season in the West. And rightfully so after they both struggled to get out of the basement all last season. The Elks haven’t won at home since 2019. They will finally win some but not this one. They made some big changes in the off season that will take a while to come together. Three new targets for QB Cornelius in MOP finalist Lewis and newcomers Moore and Dunbar should help him improve his numbers. RB Brown who came in part way through last season and was very effective will have a whole season to provide another option for Cornelius. The weak link in all of this is the O-line which made things difficult for their QB. Trying to sort things out with all his new receivers will be difficult under pressure The Roughriders also had O-line problems last season. The biggest difference is that their D-line has some emerging stars in Laniers and Robertson and newcomer Johnson and solid Dean at LB that will be able to better take advantage of the Elks weak O-line. The Roughriders also have veteran QB Harris who has come over from the Alouettes with teammate Wieneke as well as Walker from the Elks. They have a better chance of gelling quickly than the Elks passing game does. And the Roughriders also have the dynamic duo of Morrow and Hickson at RB that were very successful before going down with season ending injuries last season. Grab the points and look for the Roughriders to score the minor upset. | |||||||
06-09-23 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg -5 | Top | 31-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show |
The Bombers have decided to run it back, keeping a veteran laden roster for another go at the Grey Cup. They have the least amount of changes in a league that has huge turnover year to year. This should be effective at least for the first few games of the season as they will all be on the same page. Only center Couture is gone from the O-line (although he was injured much of last year and replaced by this year’s starter Kolankowski). All the skill positions on offence have returned and on defense Bighill (MLB) and DEs Jeffcoat and Jefferson are back. This should bode well to start the season but lets check back on this in the Fall. Hamilton is a different story. They brought in declining QB Levi-Mitchell and star MLB Thurman from Calgary, star RB Butler from BC and DL Sayles from the Bombers to name a few newcomers. They will take awhile to gel. There is a good argument that Levi-Mitchell may not thrive. Behind one of the best CFL O-lines in history (by the metric of sacks allowed) and with the leading CFL rusher Careyin Calgary, he has declined precipitously over the last few seasons. In 2021 he threw for 8 yds/completion and a sad 10 TD/13 Int ratio. In 2022 it was a 9 TD/6 Int ratio where due to injuries and performance he ceded the starters’ role to Maier. His Hamilton O-line is not going to afford him the same luxury. This may not be pretty. Part of the T-Cats’ personnel turnover was not positive as they lost three all-star starters in the secondary. Winnipeg’s vaunted passing attack should excel. The Bombers’ home record was 8-1 in 2022 while the TiCats’ road record was 2-7. In their last 5 in June, against the spread the Bombers are 4-1. The TiCats are 1-4 against the spread vs. Winnipeg and 1-3-1 against the spread in Winnipeg. Clearly you should lay the points and go with the Bombers to beat the spread. | |||||||
06-08-23 | BC +3 v. Calgary | Top | 25-15 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
This rematch of last season’s West semi-final is a great way to start the season. Historically, the Stamps have a wide edge in games at McMahon Stadium but so many of those legends have moved on. Thurman and Orimolade are gone from the interior of a stout defense. From one of the most outstanding O-lines in recent history, left tackle Dennis is gone and his replacement Coker is on IR. Left guard Williams is also on IR so Jake Maier’s back is going to be vulnerable. Starter Jamerson from the secondary is also on IR. Rick Campbell and his savy staff will have taken notice. This will also be a new experience for QB Maier as he is the man this year and no longer the eager understudy. It will be a new kind of pressure. BC shut him down in the West semi-final. It will be interesting to see what adjustments are made. Vernon Adams will have to prove that he can continue to be a solid game manager and not just “Big Play V.A.” It looked that way last season as he threw for 6 TDs and only 1 interception in the six games he started and went 12 for 12 in preseason. His trio of 1000+ yard receivers, Rhymes, Whitehead and Hatcher (on IR for this game) are back. Cottoy, Hollins and McInnis are all superb options that will make up for Hatchers’ absence. B.C. is also missing an O-line starter as newcomer Schleuger is out. They are hopeful Couture (from the Bombers) can mesh with his old teammate Chungh on this years’ O-line. It is sort of traditional to go with the under for at least the first couple of games of the season as defences are ahead of the offences but both of these squads look ready to put up points; especially BC. That would be the easy play but the hot play is BC to cover the spread by winning the game. | |||||||
07-02-22 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan -4.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
It’s a quick turnaround for the teams here and a rematch from last week when Montreal picked up its first win of the season, in shocking fashion, with a 37-13 beatdown of Saskatchewan. Needless to say, I see things going a bit differently this time around.
The Als’ defense stepped up big last week by recording three interceptions and eight sacks. But that was at home and they were coming off a bye. There’s no rest advantage this week and the game is at Mosiac Stadium.
Saskatchewan has already recorded two home wins in 2022. They beat Hamilton and Edmonton by a total of 34 points.
Something that must be pointed out about last week is that total yardage was basically even. The Roughriders are definitely the better team in this matchup and come from the much stronger division. I believe we’re getting an oddsmakers’ discount here because of last week’s result. Lay those points. | |||||||
09-05-21 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan OVER 42.5 | Top | 23-8 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Winnipeg vs. Saskatchewan Labor Day weekend is a big deal in the Canadian Football League. As far as Saskatchewan fans are concerned, this is one of the biggest games of the season. Both teams are playing good football. The Green Riders are 3-0. The defending champions are 3-1. Both teams have shown an early tendency to the under. That has created a low total. Too low for a CFL game featuring the top rated offense, in terms of points scored per game, in the league. The Riders average 28.7 points per game. Last 10 meetings saw total lines ranging between 45.5 and 60. Saskatchewan has gone 6-1 to the Over when off a bye. Take the Over | |||||||
11-24-19 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg OVER 51.5 | Top | 12-33 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Winnipeg was 7-2 when QB Matt Nichols went down with injury this season. Zach Collaros has filled in admirably since then though and I think the QB will be pivotal in helping push this total over the number. Collaros has won all three starts with his new team (averaging 9.2 yards per attempt) while compiling a quarterback rating of 109. But the Bombers are equally adept with running the ball, averaging a league-high 148 rushing yards per game. The pick: The Ti-Cats return to the big game for the first time since 2014. Several of those players on that team that lost to the Stamps are suiting up today as well. Hamilton won a franchise record 15 games this year thanks in large part to QB Dane Evans, who has 17 TD's and eight INT's over his last eight games (last week Evans had 386 yards passing in his teams 36-16 win over Edmonton.) I believe these two competent QB's become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER in the Grey Cup. | |||||||
09-13-19 | Ottawa v. BC OVER 50 | Top | 5-29 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the opener of a two game series between the teams, with the second one heading back East next weekend. Because of that, I believe each opens up the playbook on the West Coast and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Ottawa won’t be lacking for motivation that’s for sure after falling 46-17 to last place Toronto. Ottawa is just 3-8 overall and over its last three games it’s been outscored 107-42. One bright spot last week for the Redblacks was the play of QB Jon Jennings, who had 327 yards vs. the Argos. BC is just 1-10 and on a current seven-game losing streak. There’s no bigger disappointment in the entire league than these two teams. The pick: Over the last three years, the over is 3-1-1 between the clubs. The players on both sides are now playing for a job for next season and because of that, I look for this total to fly over the posted number. 10* CFL TOTAL OF MONTH on over Ottawa/BC. | |||||||
08-17-19 | Montreal v. Calgary -6.5 | Top | 40-34 | Loss | -114 | 92 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: After a slow start, the Stampeders can ill afford to take the foot off the gas for the rest of the season. Calgary is in the playoff mix and I think it’ll pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. A victory today and the Stamps are in a tie for first place in the division, but a loss and they could wind up all the way in fourth. Note that while covering only once in four games at home this year, Calgary is still 3-1 SU. And despite the Als being 9-2 ATS in their last 11, I definitely believe that they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The pick: The Alouettes are getting QB Vernon Adams Jr. and RB William Stanback this week, but one has to wonder how effective they’ll be after each sat out last weekend with injury? The Stamps have finally adjusted to QB Nick Arbuckle running the show, entering this one having gone 4-2 SU in their last six. I’m banking on Montreal finally taking a step back here vs. this determined home side. Lay the points. Calgary Stampeders 10* play | |||||||
08-01-19 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan UNDER 49.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Hamilton has opened the season 5-1, but a devastating injury to QB Jeremiah Masoli has seen their Grey Cup odds drop from +225 to +550 because of it. The Ti-Cats now have to make adjustments on the fly in hostile territory vs. a Riders team which has won two straight. This is a great situational play, as I expect Hamilton to have difficulties on the offensive side of things today as the unit looks to adjust after the Masoli injury. The Riders have looked better of late, but with Zach Collaros eligible to return, it’ll be interesting to see what happens to QB Cody Fajardo. The pick: Note that three out of these teams last four in the series have fallen under the posted number. With Dane Evans now running the show for Hamilton, expect a much more conservative game-plan from the visitors. I believe when you look at the entire situation that each team finds itself in, that this contest does indeed set up as more of a lower-scoring “chess match” on Thursday night. Hamilton Tiger-Cats/Saskatchewan Roughriders UNDER 10* play | |||||||
07-26-19 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton OVER 52.5 | Top | 15-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Winnipeg is rolling at 5-0 and I think the Blue and Gold will keep the foot on the gas in Hamilton this weekend. In fact, many CFL experts are predicting that this will in fact be this year’s Grey Cup matchup, as Hamilton comes in at 4-1. Note that they’ve split their last four games, each winning at home and also winning on the road. It’s true that the last seven games played between these teams have all gone “under” the number, but note that the average total has bee 55.1. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as a road favorite, while Hamilton has seen the total sail over the posted number in all three of its home games thus far. The best in the West vs. the beast in the East. Look for these two teams to open up the playbook and expect this total to sail over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the over Bombers/Cats. | |||||||
07-13-19 | Montreal v. Ottawa -9 | Top | 36-19 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The RedBlacks suffered a humbling 29-14 loss at home to the Blue Bombers last weekend and I believe they’ll take out their frustrations on the very contented Alouettes, who scored the 36-29 upset win at home over the Ti-Cats last time out. Montreal got 203 yards and three rushing TD’s from William Stanback last weekend, but I have a hard time seeing the RB producing the same effort here. Ottawa didn’t help itself last week either by posting 110 penalty yards on ten flags. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Montreal is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range, while Ottawa is still 11-6 ATS in its last 17 vs. the division. The stage is set for a big bounce back performance for the RedBlacks. Lay the points. 10* COACH’S CLINIC on Ottawa. | |||||||
07-06-19 | Calgary v. Saskatchewan OVER 51 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Whoever gets the start for the injured Bo Levi Mitchell, I expect the Stampeders to come out fired up as they look to fill the void of their offensive leader. It’s “next man up” in Calgary this weekend, as it likely turns to Nick Arbuckle to guide the show. Arbuckle helped lead the come-from-behind win over the Lions last weekend, connecting on all nine passes he threw for 93 yards and a TD. But Saskatchewan will be a tough out, as note that the Riders are riding the hot play of QB Cody Fajardo, who had a career-high 430 yards last week vs. Toronto. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Calgary has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 vs. clubs with losing records, while Saskatchewan has seen the total soar over in six of its last eight as a home favorite of seven points or less. This number is a little low. Calgary Stampeders/Saskatchewan Roughriders OVER 10* play | |||||||
07-01-19 | Toronto +11 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto won two in a row in the pre-season and then it had a Week 1 “bye.” Last weekend it lost its early momentum and looked flat in the embarrassing 64-14 home loss to the red hot Ti-Cats. With that awkward game out of the way, I believe the hungry visitors keep tonight’s contest much more competitive. Saskatchewan won’t be lacking for motivation either after back-to-back losses to open the 2019 campaign. The pick: The Riders looked decent in their 44-41 loss at Ottawa, as Cody Fajardo was 27 of 34 in the setback. However, I think the home side gets caught “looking past” the lowly and desperate visiting side. Note as well that Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a loss by 40 points or more, while Saskatchewan is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after allowing 40 points or more in its previous outings. Grab the points. Toronto Argonauts 10* play | |||||||
06-28-19 | Montreal v. Hamilton UNDER 58 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 74 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Hamllton broke out for a 50 point win over the hapless Argos last week, but I think it has a bit of a letdown in Week 3. In all the Ti-Cats wracked up 604 total yards of offense, including three TD’s from Bralon Addison. Note that this is the first game of a back-to-back home and home series between the clubs, and as such, I’m expecting much more of a defensive affair on Friday night. It’s interesting to note that Hamilton has won four of the last five in this series and in those four victories, they’ve allowed an average of 10.5 points per game (42 in total.) Montreal won’t be rolling over either, as it comes out of its bye week after a Week 1 loss to the Eskimos. Of concern for Montreal fans is that starting QB Antonio Pipkin suffered a knee injury in the loss and he’s expect to miss 4 to 6 weeks. That means that Vernon Adams Jr. is now thrust into the spotlight for the Als. The pick: The pressure is on Montreal to step up defensively with its No. 1 QB sidelined with injury. There’s no way the visitors can turn this into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying home side. So with Montreal trying to control the pace of this one from the outset, I do indeed expect this total to sneak below this sky-high number once it’s all said and done. Hamilton Tiger-Cats/Montreal Allouetes UNDER 10* play | |||||||
06-15-19 | Winnipeg v. BC | Top | 33-23 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: BC acquired the biggest free agent on the market in the offseason in QB Mike Reilly, who returns to his former team. Reilly signed a large four year contract and the Grey Cup Champion and ex MVP will be expected to step up quickly and pay immediate dividends. The Blue Bombers have fared well vs. the Lions ATS over the last few seasons, but QB Matt Nichols is coming off a poor 2018 in which he had just one three-hundred yard game. Nichols will be leaning heavily upon the CFL’s leading rusher Andrew Harris. The pick: These teams are no strangers to each other obviously, but I think that Reilly is the difference maker on opening night. The Leo’s hit the road for three straight after this and I think they put the foot on the gas and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. BC Lions (Moneyline) 10* play | |||||||
11-18-18 | Winnipeg v. Calgary -4.5 | Top | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 148 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The 11-8 Winnipeg Blue Bombers get ready to take on the 13-5 Calgary Stampeders in the CFL West Final and in my opinion, home field can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor/advantage for the Stamps. Winnipeg has won six of seven and QB Chris Streveler has a 29/18 TD/INT. Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell has 5,124 yards and a 35/14 TD/INT. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Calgary is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range. Lay the points, play on the Stamps. 10* play | |||||||
11-11-18 | BC +3 v. Hamilton | Top | 8-48 | Loss | -120 | 143 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: BC Lions’ QB Travis Lulay is completing just over 60 percent of his passes for 2,494 yards, 13 TD’s and 11 INT’s. The BC ground game averages 94 YPG. Defensively the Lions allow 26.3 PPG and 361.3 YPG. While BC enters the playoffs having split its last six games, the Ti-Cats enter having lost three straight. Note that Hamilton has lost three of its last four at home. QB Jeremiah Masoli has been a bright spot with a 28/18 TD:INT. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Hamilton is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight at home, while BC is 5-2 ATS in the last seven in this series. The Ti-Cats are currently being outscored by 7.7 points average during their three-game skid and everything points to another letdown here as well. Grab the points. | |||||||
07-21-18 | Winnipeg -2 v. Toronto | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: Winnipeg will be eager to get back on track here after falling 20-17 at BC last weekend, a game in which it held a 17-0 half-time lead. The Blue Bombers open a home and home set against an Argos team which just finished splitting a home and home series with the Eskimos. The teams: Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols threw three second half INT’s last weekend and his team would fall to a disappointing 2-3 on the season. RB Andrew Harris though was a bright spot with 139 yards on the ground. Harris now leads the league with 449 rushing yards over five games. The Argos go with QB James Franklin again, as he makes his third start in place of the injured Ricky Ray (lost for the season.) Last week Franklin looked to receiver SJ Green, who had 110 yards on ten catches last weekend. Previous to that though Green had just 105 yards total over three games to open the season. RB James Wilder Jr. looked pathetic last week though with just 26 yards of offense. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road favorite of three points or less, wile Toronto is a terrible 11-17 ATS in its last 28 when playing the role of underdog. I think Nichols bounces back, while all sins point to Franklin and company struggling again. Lay the points, play on the Bombers. | |||||||
07-20-18 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 53 | Top | 25-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Both team’s are 2-2 to open the season. While the “under” may be 3-0-1 in the last four in this series, I’m predicting that these two hungry sides open up the playbook and push the pace from start to finish, ultimately pushing this one “over” once it’s all said and done. The teams: This is the first meeting between the clubs this year, but last season the Redblacks won both match ups. BC will be out for revenge, but it’ll also be looking to build off its come from behind 20-17 victory over Winnipeg last weekend. The Lions are still desperate for a breakout offensive performance, having not scored more than 22 points in a game this year. Travis Lulay returned from injury and he looked good for BC, going 28 of 41 for 326 yards and a TD. The Lions have struggled with consistency on the road, so they clearly won’t be taking anything for granted here. Ottawa will be eager to take out its frustrations after a dismal 27-3 loss to Calgary last week at home. The Redblacks managed just 169 total yards of offense. QB Trevor Harris passed for only 93 yards and was picked twice. The pick: While each team struggled offensively last week, I believe the conditions are right for a more wide open affair between these two non-conference opponents. Take it for what you will as well, but BC has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Ottawa has seen the total go “over” in four of its last six as a home fav in the same points range. Play the “over.” | |||||||
07-19-18 | Saskatchewan +11.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Roughriders are 2-2 and the Ti-Cats are also 2-2. Hamilton doesn’t have a QB controversy on its hands right now, with Jeremiah Masoli under center. Saskatchewan has issues at the QB position however, with Brandon Bridges seeing time for an injured Zach Collaros this year. Regardless of that fact though, I believe the visitors will keep this one a lot more competitive than what this line would suggest. The teams: Note that the Riders have won five of their last seven road games outright. Bridges will be leaning heavily on his run game here, a unit which has so far averaged 103.8 YPG. Jerome Messam so far has 110 yards on 32 carries. Defensively though Saskatchewan has been tough, allowing 23.8 points and 366 yards per game. Keep your eyes on Derrick Moncrief, who leads the teams with 20 tackles thus far. Masoli is so far completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards and four touchdowns. He also has four INT’s though. The ground game is averaging 114.8 YPG, led by Mercer Timmis, who has 175 yards and four touchdowns already. Hamilton has also been strong on the defensive side this year, allowing an average of 21 points and 338.8 YPG. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Saskatchewan is 5-2 in is last seven following its bye week, while Hamilton is still only 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 home games. The Roughriders have won four straight in this series and while I’m definitely not calling for an outright upset here or anything like that, as I stated off the top, I do believe that everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. Grab as many points as you can, play on Saskatchewan. | |||||||
07-14-18 | Winnipeg v. BC +4.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I look for the hungry home side to at the very least take this one right down to the wire. In fact, it’s an “immediate revenge” scenario after BC lost 41-19 in Winnipeg last weekend. BC has struggled against Winnipeg for a couple of years now, but I expect that trend to finally start going the other way this weekend. The teams: Winnipeg got a big game defensively from LB Adam Bighill, who faced his former team for the first time last week as he’d post six tackles and make two interceptions. QB Matt Nichols was pretty mediocre though, going 16 of 27 for 162 yards. BC comes in focused, as it comes in off back-to-back losses, allowing 82 points in the process. The Lions struggled on both sides of the ball last week, but desperation breeds motivation in my opinion. Both the struggling Jon Jennings and the injured Travis Lulay took snaps in practice this week. The pick: Note that the Blue Bombers are interestingly just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 points or more in their previous contest. I’m banking on BC bouncing back and fighting for its life in this revenge spot in front of the home town crowd. Grab the points. | |||||||
07-13-18 | Toronto v. Edmonton -9.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto was down starting QB Ricky Ray and it was a 3.5 point underdog at home to these very Eskimos last week and the winless Argos would prevail outright with the 20-17 victory. Suffice it to say, I think it’s going to be pay-back time in a big way in Alberta on Friday night. The teams: The 20 points scored by the Argos was the most they’ve put up so far this year and the 17 points allowed was the least. QB James Franklin was an efficient 16 of 22 for 217 yards, with one passing and one rushing touchdown. Declan Cross caught the winning TD pass with three minutes to play. RB James Wilder Jr. had 120 rushing yards and a score as well. The Eskimo’s looked “out of sorts” from the “get go” last week, but I think a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Edmonton to get back on track. QB Mike Reilly was still decent in the setback, going 28 of 40 for 370 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Reilly leads the league in passing with 1,390 yards and seven major scores. 12 penalties for 126 yards was just too much for Edmonton to overcome in the end though. The pick: Neither team has been very good for bettors over the last few seasons, but I think the difference will be the immediate “revenge factor.” Edmonton hurt itself with sloppy and undisciplined play last week and I have a hard time seeing the home side not coming in completely focused here as it looks to atone for its sub-par effort. Toronto backup Franklin looked decent at home last weekend, but I think he’ll stumble in this hostile environment. Everything points to a blowout, lay the points. | |||||||
07-12-18 | Calgary -3.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Calgary comes in off its bye and I look for it to continue its unbeaten 3-0 start to the 2018 campaign with another convincing victory here. These teams met in Calgary in Week 3 and the Stamps prevailed 24-14 and suffice it to say, I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards tonight. The teams: Bo Levi Mitchell had 251 yards and two touchdowns, while Don Jackson had 84 yards a TD for Calgary in Week 3 week over Ottawa. Redblacks’ QB Trevor Harris though had just 135 yards and pick before being pulled. Mitchell so far has 872 yards and six TD’s this season, while Jackson already has 294 yards rushing. Harris bounced back last week in Ottawa’s 28-18 win at Montreal with 342 yards and three TD’s, but clearly he’s going to have a much more difficult time tonight against the league’s No. 1 defense, a unit which has given up just 34 points over three games thus far. The pick: Calgary is interestingly 6-1 ATS in its last seven Thursday night games, performing well on the “short week” (despite coming off its bye), while Ottawa is a terrible 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a victory. Expect a rested and focused Calgary to pull away for the comfortable win/cover as the game comes down the stretch. | |||||||
07-07-18 | BC v. Winnipeg OVER 55.5 | Top | 19-41 | Win | 100 | 71 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Note that this is the opener of a home and home set between these teams and it marks the only time that they’ll face each other in the regular season for the remainder. Over the last three years they’ve met eight times (including playoffs) and the Bombers are 5-3 in those games, including 3-1 on home field. To break this string, the Lions are going to have open things up and look to catch the home side off guard. The teams: BC looks to reverse its fortunes after its humbling 41-22 beatdown loss in Edmonton last week: “This is our first taste of adversity,” said Lions Head Coach Wally Bruno after. Keep your eyes on WR Emmanuel Arceneaux, who has 106 yards on the season, but who is still looking for his first TD. Winnipeg can’t take anything for granted here obviously as it tries to find its identity without star QB Matt Nichols directing the show, as he’s still three weeks away from returning from injury. Backup Chris Streveler has his team at 1-2 on the year. The Bombers have struggled defensively though at times this season, in the two losses the unit has allowed 777 yards combined through the air. The pick: So can BC’s Jon Jennings, who hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards in two games this year, step up and take advantage? He’s going to be given the green light in this one as BC is desperate to get back into the winners circle. Winnipeg will also be looking to “air it out.” This number is just a little low, play the “over.” | |||||||
07-07-18 | Edmonton -3 v. Toronto | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -106 | 68 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto won the 2017 Grey Cup in a stunning upset of the Calgary Stampeders, but so far the team has looked horrible in 2018 with an 0-2 start. Edmonton will look to take advantage here now and build off its 41-22 home win over the Lions last week. The teams: CJ Gable had a career day rushing for Edmonton last week, going for 165 yards on 23 carries, while also adding a TD for the Esks. Mike Reilly was 22 of 30 for 326 yards and three major scores, while also rushing for a TD. WR D’Haquille Williams had six catches for 129 yards. Toronto has so far managed just 26 points on the season and with starting QB Ricky Ray out for the season with a neck injury (career ending?) James Franklin is suddenly being thrust into a very difficult situation. Franklin was an unremarkable 8 of 13 for 65 yards and a rushing score in relief of Ray last week. The pick: Note that Edmonton has covered in five of its past six road games. Note that Toronto is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against clubs with winning records. The injury to Ray is devastating for an Argo’s team which was already struggling across the board. I think Reilly and company come in and calmly conduct their business and take full advantage of this favorable situation. Lay the points. | |||||||
07-06-18 | Ottawa -7.5 v. Montreal | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 46 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Ottawa lost 24-14 in Calgary last week and it’ll be eager to return to the winners circle in this favorable matchup on Friday night. Montreal was a 10.5 point home underdog to Saskatchewan last weekend and it pulled off the huge 23-17 outright upset. Can anyone say “letdown spot” in Week 4? The teams: Redblacks’ QB Trevor Harris struggled against Calgary’s elite defense, going 13 of 29 for 135 yards and an INT. The only bright spot on offense was RB William Powell, who had 113 yards on the day. And while the offense looked terrible overall, the defense was pretty good, forcing three turnovers in the end. Montreal’s defense looked great last week as well, holding the Roughriders to 278 total yards. The offense though wasn’t great, with just 264 yards. QB Jeff Mathews was 8 of 12 for 98 yards. The pick: Ottawa though has covered five straight in Montreal and I think everything points to that strong trend continuing here. Also note that the Redblacks have covered their last four following a loss. The moral of the story behind this pick, is to not “over-react.” Everything points to a blowout from start to finish in this one in my opinion, play on Ottawa. | |||||||
07-05-18 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan +7.5 | Top | 13-18 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hamilton Tigercats went 1-1 on a season opening road trip and then returned home for a convincing 31-17 victory over Winnipeg in Week 3. The Roughriders will be hungry here though, as they come in sitting at just 1-2 and off a humbling 27-13 loss to lowly Montreal as a 10-point fav last time out. The teams: Saskatchewan was 2-0 in this series last year, but the Roughriders clearly can’t take anything for granted against this much improved Hamilton team. Hamilton’s Jeremiah Masoli had 369 yards an a TD last week for the Ti-Cats and the defense held the Bombers to just 280 yards. The run game also looked decent as Mercer Timmis had two short TD runs. QB Brandon Bridge had to start in place of the injured Zach Collaros last week for Saskatchewan and while he’d stumble in that one, I think he’ll be much more competitive this time around. The pick: With a game to make adjustments after losing Collaros, I think Winnipeg will look a lot better this week. This is Hamilton’s third road game in the first four weeks and after playing at such a high level, including posting back to back SU/ATS victories, everything finally points to a letdown in my opinion (note that Hamilton is 0-2 ATS in its last two after two more SU wins, while Saskatchewan is 6-4 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU losses.) Grab as many points as you can, play on the Roughriders. | |||||||
06-30-18 | Montreal +11.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 106 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Als are coming off an embarrassing home loss and they’ll be eager to quickly erase that memory. They now perhaps thankfully hit the road for a matchup against an equally as hungry Roughriders side in Saskatchewan. Montreal is 0-2 to open the season, while Saskatchewan is 1-1. The teams: Montreal will be eager to avoid its first 0-3 start since the 1996 season. QB Drew Willy will be expected to step up here. In all fairness though, he hasn’t been terrible over the first two games, completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 392 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The combination of Ernest Jackson and Chris Williams has been decent with 196 receiving yards. The ground game has been poor with 72 yards per game, but the major problem has been on the defensive side, so far allowing 39 points and 444 yards per game. Riders’ QB Zach Collaros hasn’t been great in the early going, with 309 yards, two touchdowns and two picks. The ground game has been decent with 102.5 yards per game average. The defense though has been nothing special, allowing 29.5 points and 375 yards per game. The pick: It’s not going to be a pretty season for the Als, but they couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to try and score an upset against. Saskatchewan has looked poor overall and while I’m not in fact going to predict an outright victory, I do think that the stage is set for a competitive battle. Grab the points, play on the Alouettes. | |||||||
06-29-18 | Winnipeg +4.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -109 | 80 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Both the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Hamilton Tigercats come in with identical 1-1 records. The Blue Bombers though have won six of their last eight road games and while I would of course not be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. The teams: Winnipeg is led by QB Chris Streveler, who has 424 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. His favorite targets have been Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler, who have combined for 195 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The ground game has been dominant as well, averaging 191 yards per contest thus far, with Andrew Harris leading the charge with 135 on 29 carries. The defense hasn’t been shabby either, allowing 21.5 points and 341 yards per game. Hamilton has lost six of its last eight home games. QB Jeremiah Masoli so far has 676 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions over the first two games. Jalen Saunders and Luke Tasker have combined for 325 receiving yards and two major scores. Defensively the Ti-Cats are allowing 24.5 points and 388.5 yards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Winnipeg is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Hamilton is just 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 at home. After back-to-back road games to open the season, I think Hamilton suffers a predictable letdown here, leaving the back door open for the hungry visitors. Play on the Blue Bombers. | |||||||
06-28-18 | Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 57 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 58 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Ottawa comes in off a satisfying 40-17 upset win over Saskatchewan in its season opener, while Calgary is so far 2-0. East meets West in the Week 2 Opener and I’m expecting more of a defensive battle in this one. The teams: Trevor Harris had 345 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in his season opener for the Redblacks. Greg Ellingson was his favorite target with eight catches for 104 yards. William Powell had 94 yards on 18 carries with one major score. The Stamps have been upset in the Grey Cup in each of the last two years and anything less but a trip to the big thing would be viewed as a major disappointment this year. So far QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been solid with 621 yards passing, four TD’s and one INT. Receiver Eric Rogers has six catches for 144 yards and two touchdowns. The pick: Note as well that Ottawa has seen the total go “under” the number in six of its last eight on the road. These defenses are both underrated though in my opinion and I think the stage is set for those units to step up here on the short week and become the main storyline in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the “under.” | |||||||
06-23-18 | Calgary v. Toronto UNDER 51.5 | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Note that this is the second highest total on the board in Week 2. In the 2017 Grey Cup, Calgary was a seven-point favorite, but it would get upset for a second straight year in the “big game” 27-24. A Matt Black interception of Bo Levi Mitchell in the end zone with eight seconds remaining was a dramatic finish to a great upset. The teams: Calgary looked sharp on both ends of the field in its 28-14 win over visiting Hamilton in Week 1. The Stamps though would only pull away in the fourth quarter with a 19-3 run. Mitchell struggled, going just 17 of 36 for 297 yards, a touchdown and an interception. RB Don Jackson was a bright spot with 87 yards on 12 carries. Toronto was a three-point fav in Saskatchewan in Week 1, but the defending champs fell flat in the 27-19 setback. The Argos looked bad offensively, posting just five points through the first three quarters. QB Ricky Ray had just 233 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. RB James Wilder Jr. was also a major disappointment with 17 total rushing yards. The Argos’ bright spot was their play on the defensive side in the Week 1 loss. The pick: These teams have a long history of playing to lower-scoring defensive battles as well, as five of their last six in the series have gone “under” the posted number. Everything points to another tight/lower-scoring war in this one as well. Play the “under.” | |||||||
06-22-18 | Winnipeg -3 v. Montreal | Top | 56-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off Week 1 losses. Winnipeg lost a 33-30 heartbreaker at home to the Edmonton Eskimos, while Montreal had a predictable letdown in BC. The Bombers lost their starting QB in the final preseason tune-up, but their backup played well and I think he’ll carry that progression over here. The teams: Winnipeg was forced to start Chris Streveler in Week 1 due to the injury to Matt Nichols. Streveler though posted a respectable first performance with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler combined for 120 receiving yards and two touchdowns. RB Andrew Harris had 77 yards on 14 carries, part of 137 total yards on the ground for Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers looked poor on the defensive side, but clearly the team catches a break facing the impotent Al’s offense. Montreal QB Drew Willy had 281 yards, one TD and one INT against the Lions last week. Note though that Willy has one or less touchdown passes in each of his last eight games. Montreal’s ground game stalled as well with just 78 total yards. RB Tyrell Sutton was a bright spot with 65 rushing yards on 15 carries. The Al’s looked decent defensively, allowing 300 yards and 22 points, led by Chris Ackie with six tackles. The prediction: Take it for what you will though, but Winnipeg is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Montreal is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 at home. Not only that but the Blue Bombers are 6-1 in their last seven played in Montreal. The Al’s offense is still a major question mark and I have a hard time seeing the unit keeping up with Streveler and company. Lay the points. | |||||||
06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa OVER 50 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Roughriders will hope to open the season with a 2-0 record after beating the Toronto Argonauts handily in Week 1. Ottawa will have different plans obviously as it kicks off its 2018 campaign The teams: Saskatchewan has won four straight on the road dating to last year. QB Zach Collaros had 203 yards and a TD last week, to go along with zero INT’s. Duron Carter and Caleb Holley combined for 83 receiving yards. Jerome Messam though leads a strong running attack which posted 111 yards last week. The Redblacks were 8-9-1 last year, but they’ll be looking to improve those numbers with QB Trevor Harris, who helped his team finish third in the league in total points scored last season. The pick: It’s a quick turnaround for the Roughriders, who have to travel across the country for this one. Take it for what you will, but Saskatchewan has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 19 non-conference games. This one has the feel of a wide open “shootout,” rather than a “chess match.” Play the “over.” | |||||||
06-16-18 | Montreal v. BC -6.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 83 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Montreal only won three games last year and I think it’ll struggle on the road to open the 2018 campaign. The Lions struggled last year as well with just seven victories, as BC would miss the postseason for the first time since 1996. The Lions though feature depth and veteran leadership which I believe will help the team on Opening night. Everything points to a home side blowout. The teams: Montreal is now led by coach Mike Sherman, former Green Bay head boss. Drew Willy is experienced under center and he has a trio of decent playmakers in BJ Cunningham, Tyrell Sutton and Ernest Jackson. Note though that the defense finished dead last in total points allowed last season and that side of the ball is once again expected to be the team’s weak point. BC missed the playoffs, but it still finished third in the CFL in passing yards a year ago. Top receivers Bryan Burnham, Emmanuel Arceneaux and Jon Jennings are all back to make amends. Like their counterpart today, the main issue for the Lions last season was on the defensive side of the ball. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Al’s are 0-6 ATS in their last six on the road and just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 in BC. I like the Lions to put on an offensive show in front of the home town crowd on Opening weekend as everything points to another road letdown for the still re-building Als. Play on BC. | |||||||
06-16-18 | Hamilton +9.5 v. Calgary | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Calgary is always one of the top teams favored to win the Grey Cup (at least over the last decade.) Hamilton though won’t be rolling over and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do expect the hungry visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough with the big spread. The teams: Hamilton has won just 13 games over the last two seasons, but it got a spark over the last two months with the addition of oft-maligned QB Johnny Manziel. Manziel is starting as the backup QB, but the ex Texas A&M pivot will be expected to come in and replace starter Jeremiah Masoli at some point. Returning from last year are the team’s top two receivers in Luke Tasker and Jalen Saunders, a duo which combined for over 2,300 receiving yards and 11 TD’s. The Ti-Cats achilles heel was on the defensive side of the ball a year ago, but the return of key players such as Richard Leonard and Larry Dean is expected to help the unit make strides in 2018. Calgary has lost the Grey Cup in each of the last two seasons in heart-breaking fashion and while it’ll be coming into the 2018 campaign with a collective “chip on its shoulder,” I think it will in fact come in a bit complacent here against its lowly non-conference opponent. The offense is once again led by Bo Levi Mitchell, who has 19,000 yards and 115 TD’s over four years as a starting QB with the team. The Stamps were the best defensive team in the league last year, allowing 349 total points, while also collecting 50 sacks. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Ti-Cats are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games, while the Stamps are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven in this series when playing in front of the home town crowd. This one has “competitive battle” written all over it. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
ProSportsPicks | $1,066 |
Jack Jones | $960 |
Big Al McMordie | $876 |
Ross Benjamin | $740 |
Ray Monohan | $702 |
Jimmy Boyd | $424 |
Nick Parsons | $414 |
Ricky Tran | $343 |
Kyle Hunter | $265 |
Matt Fargo | $175 |