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This is an 8* SUPER-PLAY on the Jays.

It's the final series of the regular season. So with that in mind, I feel this particular play sets up great from a situational stand point.

The Rays have clinched the AL Wildcard, and they'll face the Jays in the best of three opening round if Toronto can win this series. All the Jays have to do is win this series and they're in.

Tampa has nothing left to play for for the remainder of the regular season. It's dealing with several injury issues as well. Frankly, I don't see the Rays putting up much of a fight here this week North of the border, instead I expect them to already be planning for the playoffs.

No such luxury for the Jays though of course, as this is now "do or die." 

Fortunately as well, this is definitely a starting pitching matchup that favors the home side as well.

The Rays go with Aaron Civale (7-4, 3.43 ERA), while the home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-3, 3.31.) 

Ryu is 4-1 with a 3.23 ERA in eight career starts vs. Tampa, while Civale is 1-0 with a 6.17 ERA in two career outings vs. Toronto.

I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger.

Lay the price with confidence, the play is TORONTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL OF WEEK on the OVER Lions/Packers.

We have a big time NFC North battle here in Green Bay on Thursday night, and on the short week, I say it's each team's defense that suffers. 

Both teams are 2-1 SU. Green Bay is 3-0 ATS, while Detroit is 2-1 ATS.

Honestly, it would not be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win this game, and that's why I'm steering clear of a side.

I just expect this one to be decided by the men under center in Jordan Love and Jared Goff.

The Lions are coming off a 20-6 win over the Falcons, while the Packers squeaked out the 18-17 win over the Saints.

Two lower-scoring defensive battles, but I'm definitely anticipating a faster-paced, and ultimatley higher-scoring game here.

All signs point to this one flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

(Additional analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL SLUG-FEST on the OVER Padres/Giants.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening.

The Padres are looking to play spoiler here and keep their division rival out of the playoffs, while the Giants are still in a fight for the postseason.

San Fran has seen the total go UNDER in five straight after last night's 4-0 loss. Note though that the Giants have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a shutout home loss vs. an opponent, and in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Matt Waldron (1-3, 4.58 ERA) has been consistently inconsistent for the Padres. Same for Sean Manaea (7-6, 4.51) of the Giants.

Neither has been great, and I anticipate they'll each "get the hook" here early, and that'll ultimatley help in driving this total OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Yanks/Jays.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a "duel" here in the opener of this series finally in my opinion.

The Jays are inching towards a wildcard, while the Yanks have been eliminated. Still, this game will have a playoff like atmosphere about it, as New York will be all business here, trying to play spoiler.

We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head in this one, and I expect them to play a big part in the outcome of this contest, with Michael King (4-7, 2.66 ERA) getting the nod for the visitors, and Kevin Gausman (12-9, 3.29) countering for the home side. 

The number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* play on the Bengals.

This is a great situational play. I'm primarily a situationally based handicapper, that uses trends and other parameters to make my picks.

Here's a great common sense play. The Bengals signed Joe Burrow to the biggest contract in NFL history over the off-season, and so far Cincinnati is 0-2 SU/ATS.

Teams that start the season 0-3 have virtually no hope of even reaching the playoffs, so for all intents and purposes, this is a "do or die" game for Cincinnati

The Rams are 1-1 and have done better than most would have thought. They're 2-0 ATS. I think they're getting a little TOO much respect here on the road though.

I say Burrow and company find a way to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion.

The play is CINCINNATI.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* play on the Eagles.

The Bucs are 2-0 SU/ATS and they've gotten better than expected play from Baker Mayfield. 

I'm expecting Tampa (and Mayfield), to come back down to Earth here though facing this tough Eagles' secondary.

This is a classic "letdown/look-ahead" spot as well for the Bucs, with a huge divisional matchup at the Saints next weekend.

The Eagles are 2-0 SU and 1-1-1 ATS. WIth a home game against Washington, and a favorable schedule upcoming, I think that Jalen Hurts and company pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover.

Lay the points, the play is PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* play on the UNDER Eagles/Bucs.

I think the Eagles defense will dominate in this game and shut down Baker Mayfield and company. And the last thing that the home side wants to do is to turn this into a "track meet" with Jalen Hurts and the high-flying Eagles.

The Bucs have played to two straight OVERS, but with a game at division rival New Orleans next weekend, I think the home side is going to get caught "looking ahead" (as outlined in more detail on my picks on the Eagles here in this 3-game Monday night report.) 

I expect each side to try and establish the run throughout on this one and while they've both been involved in several high-scoring games to begin the season, all signs finally point to more of a defensive-battle here on Monday night.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST ON the Bears.

Both teams have struggled with consistency so far. The Bears are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS, while the Chiefs are 1-1 SU/ATS.

Teams that start 0-3 have almost zero chance of making the playoffs, so Justin Fields and company will be risking life and limb to try and pull off the upset here.

Just like the Lions did here on Opening night.

What's up with the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes? Injuries? New faces and lack of chemistry? Something else, or all of the above?

Who knows, but it's safe to say that the defending champs definitely look "out of sorts" here early on.

KC has upcoming road games at the Jets and Vikes, setting this up as a potential look-ahead, or "trap" game for the home side.

I say the Bears play their best game of the season, and whether or not that's actually good enough to pull off an upset will be seen, but either way, I expect this one to be a lot closer than what this larger spread is suggesting once it's all said and done.

Grab the points, the play is CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Browns.

After a come-from-behind 27-24 win over the Chargers in Week 2, I think the Titans stumble badly here on the road against this hungry home side.

The Browns are coming off a frustrating 26-22 loss to Pittsburgh, with QB DeShaun Watson making a couple of mistakes down the stretch. 

Ryan Tannehill has trouble with consistency from week to week, and can't be trusted on the road. Cleveland is without Nick Chubb moving forward, but this play is all about Watson for me.

The Browns crushed Cincinnati at home in Week 1, and I envision a similar beatdown here on Sunday afternoon.

Lay the points, the play is CLEVELAND!

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Saints.

The Saints are in a two-way tie for top spot in the NFC South, and with two games under his belt now under center, I like Dereck Carr to get the better of his counterpart on Sunday.

The Pacers are 1-1 after falling apart down the stretch in a 25-24 setback at Atlanta.

Now back at home, I don't think that "familiar surroundings" will help Jordan Love and company.

New Orleans is in fact 4-1 ATS the last five in this series. The Saints are also 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. the NFC North.

Love has six TD's through two games, but just a 55.8% completion rate. The Saints are one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

New Orleans has effectively shut down the first two QB's its faced in Ryan Tannehill and Bryce Young, and I believe the unit will be a difference-maker in the outcome of this one as well.

While clearly the outright win is a possibility, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with NEW ORLEANS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC SOUTH GOW on Houston.

Outright victory?

I'm not calling for that. But I do think the Jags will take the foot off the gas in the second half and allow the hungry 0-2 Texans enough room to sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Houston looked better in its 31-20 home loss to the Colts last week, and they catch the Jags at the correct time here in Week 3 in my estimation, as I believe Jacksonville will get caught looking ahead to its "back to back" weeks in London starting next week vs. the Falcons. It's the first time a team will play B2B weeks across the Pond, and I am going to take full advantage of this very real situational factor working in favor of the visiting side.

As stated off the top, no outright win or anything, but way closer than what this spread is suggesting.

Grab the points, the play is the TEXANS!

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ULTIMATE SHOCKER on the Broncos.

I'm a contrarian at heart, and I'm a big "situational" capper. This particular play fits the bill perfectly!

The Broncos are 0-2 SU/ATS, while the Dolphins are 2-0 SU/ATS.

Both of Miami's wins have come on the road. Both were tough victories. Now back at home, I say a classic "letdown" is in order here for the Dolphins.

And then when you add in the fact that they have a game at Buffalo the following Sunday, not only is this a natural "letdown" spot for Miami, but it's also a "look-ahead" positoin as well.

Letdown + look-ahead = "trap game!"

No such luxury for the Broncos, as teams that start 0-3 have almost zero chance of even making the playoffs.

Russell Wilson and company will be risking life and limb here to try and pull off the upset.

I'll stop short in calling for that upset though, but I do think it'll come "down to the wire."

Grab the points, the play is DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOM on Pittsburgh.

UNC comes to Pittsburgh sitting at 3-0, while the Panthers are just 1-2. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. 

The Tar Heels are led by Drake Maye, wh has 891 yards and four TD's. He also has four INT's as well though. They're off a 31-13 win over Minnesota. 

It's interesting to note as well that UNC has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games vs. conference opponents.

Pitt is hungry, off back-to-back losses after falling 17-6 to WVU. Phil Jurkovec is going to keep his team competitive here in Week 4, so far he has a 4:3 TD:INT. 

One other interesting thing to note here is that the home team has won each of the last four games between these sides.

That said, I'm for sure not calling for the outright upset or anything, but I'm definitely expecting a very tight battle until the end.

Grab the points, the play is PITTSBURGH.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER SIDE on FC Cincinnati.

Here is a great situational play. FC Cincinnati is 17-4, but it's going to be super eager here to snap a three-game winless run. That includes back-toback road draws, and a 1-0 home loss to OCSC as a huge favorite at the start of the month.

It won't be taking anything for granted either after drawing with Charlotte 2-2 in early July.

Charlotte FC is 7-9 and it hasn't lost in five games, drawing its last four and earning a 2-1 win over LAFC previous to that.

But the visting side is just completely overmatched this weekend. Look for FC CINCINNATI to go up early, but to keep the foot on the gas until the end.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOW on Nevada.

Texas State on paper is clearly the better team, and I'm not in any way trying to say that Nevada will win this game outright, but all signs point to a much tighter battle in my opinion than what this larger spread is suggesting.

Texas State is 2-1, and Nevada is 0-3. The Wolfpack won't be rolling over here though as they desperately try to get off the schneid and pull off the upset.

They almost pulled off the upset last time out, coming up short in a 31-24 setback to Kansas. The offense revolves around the run, led by Sean Dollars, who has 120 rushing yards and two TD's so far.

Dating to last year, Nevada has lost 13 straight. 

Texas State comes in over-confident after a 77-34 dismantling of FCS Jackson State. I'll argue though that the 34 points given up is what really stands out in that score. TJ Finley has 760 yards and six TD's, but those numbers are skewed due to the level of competition thus far.

The Wolfpack have faced some tough competiont so far this year and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one being much more competitive than what the oddsmakers have led us to think.

So grab the points, the play is NEVADA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BLOWOUT on USF.

USF is 1-2 SU/ATS, while Rice is 2-1 SU/ATS.

I can't understate how important I think that the "home field" advantage will be in this particular matchup. 

This is the Owls first true road game, and a predictable letdown is imminent in my opinion. 

JT Daniels has been decent with 805 yards passing, and an 8:2 TD:INT so far for Rice. 

Note though that if history is any precedence, then Rice can't be liking its chances too much here, despite being listed as the favorite, as note that the Owls have lost each of their last ten road games in September. 

Bulls' QB Byrum Brown has 450 yards passing and a 4:3 TD:INT. The offense of course revolves around a strong run game though that comes in averaging 225.7 yards per game, with Brown leading the way on the ground so far with 275 rushing yards and four rushing TDs.

The Bulls took Alabama down to the wire. Enough said.

Well I do absolutely believe the outright win is possible, in the end the official play is to grab as many points as you can.

The play is USF.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EPL TOW on the OVER Everton/Brentford.

What do you base your totals on? Do you simply look if a team is "on fire" offensively of late and blindly take the over? 

Or do you take into account other information? Most serious bettors would take a plethora of different information into account before making a pick.

This parituclar one is a great "situational" play. Both teams are desperate for a win.

Brentford is 11th in the table at 1-1-3. It's off a 1-0 loss at Newcastle, so it'll be looking to push the pace here against 0-4-1 Everton, which sits 18th.

With each side looking to "get off the schneid," defense is going to take a back seat in this one.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOW on Michigan.

Both teams are 3-0 straight-up, but Rutgers is 3-0 ATS, while Michigan is 0-3 ATS.

I say that lop-sided stat changes today though as I expect the Wolverines to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one as they look to give the Scarlet Knights a big dose of reality.

Rutgers is off to a 3-0 start for a third straight year after getting the better of VT by a score of 35-16 last weekend. 

RB Kyle Manangai had a career-high three TDs, but I believe he'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball today in this hostile road venue.

The Wolverines are off a 31-6 win over Bowling Green. That was the third and final game of Jim Harbough's suspension, so expect the home side to come out extra motivated here to lay a beating on its overmatched opponent.

JJ McCarthy had two TD's last weekend, but also three picks. That's an area of concern, but in the end I just think the pace in which the home side plays with, combined with the smothering defensive play will just be too much for Rutgers to handle down the stretch.

Lay the points, the play is MICHIGAN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOY on the UNDER FSU/CLEMSON.

Both teams have been involved in several high-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening.

FSU is 3-0, while Clemson is 2-1.

The Seminoles have seen the total go OVER in all three of their games so far this season, while Clemson has seen it go over in two of thre, including in the Tigers latest 48-14 win over FAU.

The Tigers' chances of making the Football Playoff is likely already over after the Week 1 loss to Duke, but while Clemson has struggled at times offensivly, the Tigers for the most part have looked decent defensively.

FSU has yet to be challenged. Certainly no one has come close in slowing down the Seminoles offensively, but that's going to change this weekend in my opinion. 

The Tigers though can get right back into the picture with a win over FSU here today. The Seminoles competition to this point has to be called into question as well, as they BARELY held on for the 31-29 win at BC as 27.5-point favorites last week.

Don't expect Cade Klubnik to be expected to do too much here, rather instead be more of a "game manager." 

While each side has played to a lot of super high-scoring affairs of late, everything finally points to a much more defensive contest here in Week 4. The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the OVER Wisconsin/Purdue.

Wisconsin is 2-1 and Purdue is 1-2. In what I anticipate will be a faster-paced affair, everything in my opinion points to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Wisconsin hasn't had any issues moving the ball and putting points on the board. In their one loss the Badgers were upset 33-21 at Washington State as 5.5-point favorites. 

They then bounced back in Week 3 with a 35-14 win over Georgia Southern. The Badgers got the better of Purdue by a score of 35-24 at home last year, so the Boilermakers certainly won't be lacking for motivation in this one.

Purdue has struggled defensively overall, last week falling 35-20 at home to Syracuse as a 2-point dog.

Defense takes a back seat here in my estimation on Friday night, the play is indeed on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-DIVISIONAL NFC GOM on the Giants.

The Giants are 1-1 SU, including 1-0 on the road after escaping with a 31-28 victory at Arizona in Week 2. New York made huge half time adjustments, scoring all 31 of its points in the second half. 

I say for sure it's able to keep that momentum rolling here now. NY is 0-2 ATS, and while I'm stopping short in calling for the outright upset here, I do think that NY and Danny Dimes will be competitive enough down the stretch to cover with the large spread that they're being afforded. 

San Francisco returns home for the first time this season. Last week it won at division rival LA by a score of 30-23, the Rams kicking a FG with only 4 seconds left to ruin the 0.5-point cover for most people (that's IF you had San Fran, I actually had the Rams, so admittedly "lucked out" on that one.) 

The bottom line here is that this is just a few too many points to be giving up in my opinion, as New York definitely showed me something in the second half there last week on BOTH sides of the field.

Grab the points, the play is NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Pirates/Cubs.

The first two games of this series have flown OVER the number, but all signs point to a much more defensive affair here in the finale in my opinion.

We have two decent starters going head-to-head here, with Johan Oviedo (8-14, 4.27 ERA) going up against Kyle Hendricks (6-7, 3.77.) 

Chicago won the opener 14-1, then Pittsburgh answered with the 13-7 victory last night. Note though that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUN BELT TOY on the UNDER Georgia State/Coastal Carolina.

We have a couple of pretty good teams colliding here on Sunbelt Conference action on Thursday, as Coastal Carolina is 2-1, while Georgia State is 3-0. 

The Chanticleers are off the 66-7 win over Duquesne, while Georgia State rolled to a 41-25 win over Charlotte in its final tune-up before Conference play.

And that's where I believe we'll now see a much more competitive affair here than what the oddmakers are leading us to believe.

Darren Grainger will have a much more difficult time to move the ball through the air here facing CC's underrated defense.

I see this game being decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest like that, the UNDER is the correct call.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER White Sox/Nationals.

Both teams have now played to three straight UNDERS after the Nats 4-3 win yesterday. Now here in the finale, I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks in this series.

It's significant to note that Chicago has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

And note that Washignton has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in the same position.

Neither starter has been terrible, neither has been great either though. Michael Kopech (5-12, 5.47 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while Josiah Gray (7-12, 4.07) counters for the home side.

The overall situation, combined with these above supporting O/U trends does indeed make the OVER the correct call in this one in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Mariners/A's.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs, including in the Mariners 5-0 win here last night, but everything finally points to a bit more of a "slug-fest" on Tuesday in my opinion.

The A's have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a shutout home loss vs. an opponent.

The Mariners have now seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but that's significant to note here as well, as Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

We have two decent starters going head-to-head, with Luis Castillo (13-7, 3.08 ERA) going for the Mariners, and Paul Blackburn (4-5, 4.14) countering for the home side.

This is just a case of each being in the wrong place, at the wrong time though. 

The overall situation, combined with these strong supporting O/U ATS stats all point to the OVER as the correct call finally in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOM on the OVER Browns/Steelers.

Both teams struggled to put points on the board in Week 1, and that's helped in pushing this Week 2 total a little lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion.

Cleveland comes in off a 24-3 win at home over Cincinnati. Hard to get a firm readon on the Browns, as the result was so lop-sided an upexpected. Clearly the Bengals have their issues, so I say the book is still out on Cleveland right now. 

Can't deny the defense looked great against Joe Burrow and company, but now on the road facing this determined Steelers team that was humbled 30-7 here at home by San Francisco. The 49ers defense was a strength of the team last year, and it is again this season as well. 

DeShaun Watson finished with 154 yards passing and a TD, along with another rushing TD for Cleveland, and I believe he can build off that performance with an even better one here on the National stage. 

Last year Cleveland was ranked 19th in league in average points allowed per game at 21.2.

The Steelers run defense was terrible last week, as Christian McCaffrey gouged them for 151 yards and a TD. That's not good news facing this run-heavy Browns offense. QB Kenny Pickett had 232 yards passing and a TD. He also had two costly INT's.

Either way, I say this one comfortably eclipses the number down the stretch, with each side improving significantly on the offensive side of the ball here in Week 2.

This number is indeed low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NL TOW on the UNDER Phillies/Braves.

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect a much tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring contest here in the opener of this series.

Zach Wheeler (11-6, 3.70 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, and he's been at his best on the road this year, going 7-4 with a 3.27 ERA away from friendly confines.

He'll be opposed by Kyle Wright (0-2, 7.48 ERA) who has clearly seen better days. The good news? Wright has only one way to go with his performance. Also, he's only pitched a total of 21.2 innings this season, and he still owns a decent 23:12 K:BB. I think Wright settles down here finally and matches Wheeler inning for inning.

This game will have a playoff like atmosphere about it, and I believe it'll be the men on the mound that take center stage.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EPL TOW on the UNDER Burnley/Nottingham Forest.

Burnley upset Nottingham Forest in the EFL Cup just two weeks ago, so it'll be out for revenge here. Both teams desperately need a win here, and I'm expecting a real "war of attrition" in this one, where each side sits back and waits for the other to make the first mistake.

Burnley went into the international break off a 5-2 drubbing to Tottenham, while Nottingham Forest earned a tough 1-0 win over Chelesea.

I see a similar lower-scoring outcome here as well. Nottingham Forest has endured an early difficult schedule. Forest has won each of its last four at home, so the Clarets will be wary here, especially after the last thrashing they endured in league play.

I expect a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOY on the UNDER Dolphins/Pats.

New England's defense once again looked sharp in last week's 25-20 loss to the Eagles. 

Mac Jones had 315 yards passing, but averaged only 5.5 yards per throw. The defense though I thought looked excellent once again for the Pats.

The Dolphins pulled off the unlikely upset on the road last week, coming from behind to knock off the Chargers 36-34 as 3-point dogs. Now they're favored on the road vs. a division rival.

Next week they're back at home to play Denver.

It's New England with its back against the wall early. The game-plan will remain the same for Jones and company. Long sustained drives on offense, combined with suffocating defensive play.

I say the overall situation definitely points to the UNDER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC WEST GOW on the Rams.

They say that divisional matchups are always the most important and that they almost always mean more to the home side.

And that's the case here. Both teams looked good in their openers, but I just feel that San Francisco is getting too much respect here vs. an underrated Rams side.

LA looked good on both ends of the field in its 30-13 win at Seattle. The 49ers also looked dominant in their 30-7 win at Pittsburgh.

Now another big favorite on the road for a second week, I think San Francisco will be less explosive here. 

Combined with the fact that I think the Rams are for sure being undervalued by the oddsmakers, the correct call for me in this matchup is indeed on LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH GOW on the Bengals.

Baltimore started slowly last weekend, and then it pulled away for a comfortable 25-9 win and cover as a 9.5-point favorite in Week 1. 

Now on their first true road game of the season vs. a division opponet that was humbled 24-3 in Week 1 on the road in Cleveland, my advice here is to NOT read too much into the results of either of these sides.

Overreaction to Week 1 results is something the bookmakers always try to take advantage of. The Ravens had plenty of issues against a really weak team in Houston.

The Bengals clearly have issues of their own as well, but I say Joe Burrow and company make the necessary adjustments and find a way to post a bounce-back effort here at hom in Week 2 of this important divisional contest.

Lay the points, the play is CINCINNATI.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Jaguars.

Here's a great situational play for Jacksonville, which plays with revenge here after falling 27-20 to the Chiefs back in the AFC divisional round. KC is without Travis Kelce, and it has nother new faces in the offense, and chemistry is clearly an issue after the Week 1 loss at home to the Lions.

The Jags though looked good in the win and cover on the road against a tougher-than-expected Colts team.

With the added issue with the weather from the Hurricanes, I thikn that Trevor Lawrence and the home side can take advantage.

That said, let's grab the points here with JACKSONVILLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NON-DIVISION GOY on the Bears.

Let's not overreact to the Week 1 results from either side. The Bears looked terrible, and the Bucs looked "ok." 

Chicago fell apart down the stretch in its 38-20 home loss to the Packers, but the Bears will have less of a downfield threat to worry about in Baker Mayfield.

The Bucs did manage the 20-17 road win at Minnesota as 4.5-point underdogs, but Tampa still has more questions than answers in severl facets as well.

I just don't think that Justin Fields and company truly are as bad as what we saw over the first three quarters of Week 1. 

While I do think the outright is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

The play is CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SIDE WINNER on Colorado State.

I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but with the majority of the World now believing that Prime Time is the best coach in the country, I feel that Colorado State will have an opportunity to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Give the Buffs credit, they've looked great so far in back-to-back victories and covers. But with a game at high-powered Oregon up next, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but then also a "look ahead." 

Colorado will take the foot off the gas in the second half, and CSU, which hasn't played since a 50-24 loss to Washington State two weeks ago, will have a great opportunity in the latter stages to keep this one competitive.

No outright, but closer than expected.

Grab the points, the play is COLORADO STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Pittsburgh/WVU.

I base my picks on many different things. This particular one sets up extremely well from a situational stand-point. 

Pittsburgh is 1-1 SU after falling 27-21 at home to Cincinnati as a 6.5-point favorite last week. So far the Panthers have seen the total go OVER the number in both of their games, but note that they've seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last six off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in their previous outing. 

WVU is also 1-1 after pulling away for a 56-17 win over Duequesne as a 38-point favorite last week. Both games for WVU haave also gone OVER the number, but in my opinion, all signs point to a much more defensive affair this time around.

The fact that these teams have already played to so many OVERS this year, has also helped in driving this particular total a little too high.

Despite this being a non-conference game, this is an important game for each school, and all signs point to a lower-scoring UNDER in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* MONEY BLOWOUT on Minnesota.

This one sets up great for Minnesota from a situational stand point. 

Minnesota is 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS. It's been big favorites in each of its two wins at home, and now on the road I think it's finally the Gophers who have been underrated by the bookmakers here. 

UNC is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS after holding on for a 40-34 OT win over Appalachian State. And with a bye week, before three straight home games vs. conference opponents, including the high-powered Orange when they return, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but it's also a "look ahead." 

This game is going to be decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever taem has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* VALUE PLAY on the DRAW between Brentford/Newcastle.

Considering the form of these two sides, I think this line is really out of whack. And that's why I'm avoiding a side play here. I see this being really competitive, and because of that, the DRAW option becomes the best value play in EPL for me this weekend.

Brentford has yet to taste defeat this year, going 1-0-3 so far. Last week it drew 2-2 with Bournemouth at home. It's only win so far was on the road at Fulham, a 3-0 victory.

Newcastle opened with a surprising 5-1 win over Aston Villa to open the season, but it's since struggled to score in losing three straight outright, posting a combined two goals during the slide.

I see the home side risking life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes today. I also think that the visitors are undervalued here.

In what looks to be another "war of attrition," I am going to grab this one on the DRAW.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOY on Illinois.

Here's a great "situational" play. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I definitely feel this is a few too many points for Penn State to be giving up on the road here.

The Nittany Lions are off B2B blowout wins, both SU and ATS, most recently annihilating Delaware 63-7 as 44-point favorites. But with a game at home to Iowa next week, not only do I feel this is a letdown spot, but also a "look-ahead." And in my World, that = trap game. 

Illinois is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. It fell 34-23 at KU last week, after holding on for a 30-28 home win over a much-better than advertised Toledo side. 

This is Penn State's first true road game of the year and I feel the Lions will struggle to contain this hungry Illini team at home down the stretch.

No outright, but much closer than expected.

Grab the points, the play is ILLINOIS.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* ROUT on Missouri.

This one sets up great from a situational stand-point for Missouri in my opinion.

The Tigers are 2-0 SU, but they're -2 ATS. It's been two mediocre outings in a row for Missouri State, but now I'm expecting a much better effort here this week against a K-State side a little over-rated in my opinion.

K-State is 2-0 SU and ATS, but with a date at home vs. UCF next week, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but it's also a look-ahead.

While I do feel an outright is possible, the official is to grab as many points as you can. The play is MISSOURI.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF MONTH on Air Force. 

I love the way this one sets up for Air Force. 

Utah State is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS after destroying Idaho State 78-28 last time out. 

But I just can't see the Aggies keeping pace on the raod here against this high-powered option offense of Air Force. Utah State lost 24-14 at Iowa, and I'm expecting an even bigger blowout here.

The Falcons are 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS. Last time out Air Force held on for a 13-3 win over Sam Houston State on a neutral field. 

Air Force was upset 34-27 at Utah State last year as an 11-point favorite, so the revenge-factor also comes into play here.

The Aggies won't be able to keep pace down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is AIR FORCE.

Good luck, NP

10* Vikes (GOW)

Minnesota got tripped up in Week 1 at home to the Bucs by a score of 20-17, but with their backs against the wall, I like the Vikes to keep this one closer than what this spread is suggesting. 

I just think Kirk Cousins is going to have his opportunities here to take advantage of an overrated Eagles' secondary, which struggled to contain Mac Jones on the road last week.

Cousings was 34 of 44 for 344 yards and two TD's last week. Jones had 306 yards passing last week. 

The Vikings defense is going to keep Jalen Hurts "honest" this week and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to, at the very least, a solid cover.

Grab the points, the play is MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOTAL OF MONTH on the OVER Navy/Memphis.

Both teams have been involved in lower-scoring games to open the season, but I believe that Thursday's contest will fly well OVER the number before it's all said and done. This is a great "situational" play.

Have is now 1-1 to open the season, first falling 42-3 to Navy across the Pond, then it beat Wager 24-0 as a 42-point favorite last week. 

Note that the Midshipmen though have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after shutting out their opponent in their previous outing.

Memphis has domianted in two straight, smashing Bethune Cookman 56-14, before blasting Arkansas State 37-3 last week. Note that the Tigers have seen the total OVER the number though in eight of their last 11 after playing to two or more straight OVERS in a row.

Look for these two teams to push the pace and expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* AL TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Yanks/Red Sox.

The first two games of this series have gone UNDER the number, but I'm finally expecting some "fireworks" here in the finale.

New York has seen the total go UNDER in three straight now in fact, which is significant for us to take note of, as the Yanks have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

And note that Boston has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent.

Neither starter has impressed me, with Clark Schmidt (9-8, 4.54 ERA) getting the call for the visitors, and Chris Murphy (1-1, 4.64) countering for the home side.

When taking into account all of the above situational information, everything poing to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Padres/Dodgers.

I've been on the UNDER in the first two games of this series, and the old saying, "third times a charm," could not be more apt for today's selection on the UNDER once again.

SD has now seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that the Padres have seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

LA has seen the total go OVER in seven of its last eight, and the other one "pushed." 

That's plenty of OVERS played to by both sides of late, but with two competent starters going head-to-head here, I expect a "duel" here finally on Wednesday.

The visitors go with ace Blake Snell (13-9, 2.52 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), while the home side counters with Ryan Pepiot (2-0, 0.86 ERA, 0.52 WHIP.) 

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* DUEL on the UNDER Padres/Dodgers.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening.

San Diego has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after last night's 11-8 series-opening victory.

Note that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

The Dodgers have now seen the total go OVER in seven straight.

So we're standing in front of the train here and looking for the Padres' Michael Wacha (11-3, 2.99 ERA), and the Dodgers Lance Lynn (4-2, 4.95) to battle deep. 

As the title of this pick implies, this is a great "situational" play now finally on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

10* UNDER Padres/Dodgers (NL TOW)

Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect more of a "duel" here in the opener of this series.

San Diego lost two of three to the Astros over the weekend, and all threee games went OVER the number. Note though that the Padres have seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last six after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

The Dodgers have now won three of their last four. They've seen the total go over in six straight now though.

The Padres hand the ball to Pedro Avila (1-2, 2.19 ERA), while the home side counters with Gavin Stone (1-0, 10.50.) 

Two hungry starters. This pick though is based upon the overall situation, combined with the above trend.

These teams have been playing to a lot of OVERs of late, but all signs point to this one staying well UNDER once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Jets.

We keep hearing every year, that THIS is the season for the "Bills." But something always happens, and the Bills stumble in the playoffs. 

The Jets didn't assemble this team and bring over Aaron Rodgers to lose, and I believe New York's tough defensive play, combined with strong running game will prove to be too much for Buffalo to keep up with.

Josh Allen is great, but so too is Aaron Rodgers. This is a huge game for both QB's, but I'd say it means a lot more to Rodgers.

While I do think the outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOY on the UNDER Cowboys/Giants.

It's a big divisional matchup, and neither team will want to start off the year 0-1 to the other. I think we're going to see a very defensive affair on Sunday, rather than a high-scoring "run and gun" shootout. 

I just think that each will be committed to the run throughout, and each will be extremely careful here in not to have any costly turnovers. 

New York doesn't want to get into a shootout with Dak Prescott. I say this game is decided in the trenches and by field position, and because of that, I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NORTH GOM on the Packers.

It's a big divisional matchup between two teams that have big aspirations heading into this season.

The big matchup here features the men under center with Justin Fields for the Bears, and Jordan Love for the Packers. 

Fields put together a much better season last year, and he's expected to take another step forward this year. He lacks a passing game though, and big time play makers around him.

Chicago has just as many question marks heading into the season as Green Bay, except most of its issues are on the defensive end.

Love is actually older than Fields, and I think he'll be able to easily exploit this weak Bears' secondary. 

While clearly the outright win is possible, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with GREEN BAY here in Week 1.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC WEST GOM on the Broncos.

Two teams with big aspirations collide with each other in Denver this weekend, but in my opinion this one favors the home side.

Jimmy Garoppolo is under center for the Raiders, and much like Russell Wilson experienced in his first year with Denver, I think he'll struggle with his new team for a bit.

Probably not nearly as bad as Wilson's disastrous effort, but I think he'll be much better this season working under Sean Payton. 

The Broncos strength was on defense last year, and I think that unit will be up to slowing down Josh Jacobs out of the gate.

Lay the points, the play is DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH GOM on the Browns.

They say divisional contests are always the most important, and they almost always mean more to the home side.

And that's the case here as I expect DeShaun Watson, who enters his first full season for the Browns, along with the plethora of new weapons he has around him, including Amari Cooper, to pull off the win here at home on Opening Day.

The Browns have a great run game and defense and I think that they'll keep Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase playing from behind throughout in this one.

Both teams have some issues coming into the season, but I say that "home field" turns out to be the difference-maker in this one.

The play is CLEVELAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC SOUTH GOM on the Colts.

I think this divisional matchup will come right down to the wire, and not be "easy" for either side. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The Colts haven't won a season-opener since 2013, but they did rally last year to "tie" Houston. These two teams split last eason, with each team winning at home. I say that home field comes into play here in Week 1 as well this season. 

The Jags are in unchartered territory here now, the division favorite behind the improved play of Trevor Lawrence. I was a big fan of Lawrence and the Jags last year, but now I'm feeling as if they could be a bit over-hyped coming into this season. Yes, it's a weak division, but Lawrence is still very young and I say the book is still out on him. For now anyways.

The Colts will be breaking in No. 4 overall draft pick Athony Richardson and I think he'll do enough to keep his team involved late.

Grab the points, the play is INDIANAPOLIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MLS GOW on DC United.

No upsets here. DC United is off a convincing 4-0 thrashing of the Chicago Fire, and I expect it to keep that momentum rolling here at home this weekend. 

Keep your eyes on Chris Benteke, who scored a brace against Chicago. 

The Earthquakes on the other hand struggle at the best of times on the road and have suffered a poor stretch overall, failing to win in their previous three league matches.

Considering the form of DC United, I think this line should in fact be a lot larger.

Lay the price for DC UNITED in regulation.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Texas Tech.

The Ducks are 1-0 and the Red Raiders are 0-1. Oregon dismantled Portland State by a score of 81-7, but let's not overreact to that lop-sided result. They posted 729 yards of offense, but now the level of competition goes up considerably.

The Red Raiders suffered a 35-33 OT loss to Wyoming as 13.5-point favorites. Once again, I'll caution to not "overreact" to that result.

Overreacting to results after Week 1, either good or bad, is the quickest way to the poor house, and it's something the books know to look for as they try to bait unseasoned bettors into "overreacting" to a crazy Week 1 result.

It was a perfect storm of blunders for the Red Raiders last weekend, who actually outgained the Cowboys 431-320 in the humbling upset.

While the outright is possible in my opinion, I'm grabbing the points. The play is TEXAS TECH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* UNDERDOG GOM on Ohio.

Ohio is 1-1 SU, but 0-2 ATS. I think the Bobcats though have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright, but my official call here will be to grab as many points as you can.

So far Bobcat QB CJ Harris has thrown for 248 yards, two TD's and one INT. The ground game has been fantastic in averaging 150.5 YPG. Defensively the Bobcats have looked stout so far as well, allowing 15 points and 257.5 yards per game on offense.

FAU crushed Monmouth in its opener, but I think it'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball today. Casey Thompson so far has 280 yards passing, five TDs and 1 INT.

And overall the Owls are allowing 20 points and 361 yards per game.

In a contest that I see being decided late, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is OHIO.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* ROUT on Northwestern.

Northwestern underwhelmed last week, but I expect it to pull away for the comfortable win and cover here at home in Week 2.

UTEP bounced back from a Week 0 loss to beat Incarnate Word by a score of 28-14 last week, but an immediate return to mediocrity seems imminent in my opinion. The Miners have still lost 13 of their last 14 road games in September. 

The Wildcats were stifled 24-7 at Rutgers, but I expect this offense to bounce back. Ben Bryant had 169 yards and two INT's, facing a better than advertised defense. Defensively though the Wildcats looked stout I though and I think the unit wil be a difference-maker in this one.

After 12 straight losses dating to last year, I expect NORTHWESTERN to finally step up here and deliver at home.

Lay the points, the play is NORTHWESTERN.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SIDE WINNER on Nebraska.

Colorado pulled off a 45-42 upset win over TCU last week, and the entire World has lost its mind. Deion and Shedeur Sanders looked great in that game, but let's not overreact here. Sanders finished with 510 passing yards and four TDs and 565 offensive yards. 

Nebraska wet the bed in its 13-10 loss to Minnesota last week. It had a 7-3 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Once again, let's not overreact too much to early results here, either negative or positive, after Week 1. 

On paper Nebraska is the "better" team. And I expect a big bounce-back for the visiting side here in Week 2, and a letdown from Colorado.

Grab the points, the play is NEBRASKA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BLOWOUT TOTAL on the UNDER A's/Rangers.

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening.

Oakland is just 19-50 on the road. It's terribly inconsistent at the plate from one game to the next. It just lost two of three to Toronto, but salvaged the finale 5-2.

Texas has seen the total go OVER in five straight after losing three in a row to Houston this week. Note though that the Rangers have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row, and in three of their last four after three or more straight losses in a row. 

We have two really good starters going head-to-head here, with Paul Blackburn (4-4, 3.81 ERA) getting the nod for the A's and Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 3.60) countering for the home side.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER Illinois/Kansas.

Both teams won last week, and each failed to cover the large spread. Both teams went OVER the number as well, but now with the level of competition going up, I'm expecting a much more defensive-affair.

Illinois beat Toledo 30-28, unable to cover the 7.5-point spread.

Kansas rolled over Missouri State 48-17, unable to cover the 32.5-point spread.

I feel the overall situation points to a much more defensive battle than what this O/U line is suggesting.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL OF WEEK on the UNDER Lions/Chiefs.

I usually take a "contrarian" approach over the first few weeks of the season, and that's what I'm doing here for sure.

The general betting public will be excited and quick to hammer the "over" after both the Lions and Chiefs put together such great offensive campaigns last year, but I think there's enough reason to believe that each offense will need a bit of time to start "firing on all cylinders" again. 

KC has had to replace several key members on offense, and that works in our favor here as well.

While the rest of the World goes one way, I'm going the other.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NL TOM on the UNDER Cards/Braves.

This one sets up well to be a lower-scoring UNDER.

The first two games have flown OVER the number in the Cards' back-to-back upsets, winning 10-6 and 11-6.

Note that ATL has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after back-to-back home losses. 

Adam Wainwright (3-10, 8.10 ERA) has obviously been terrible overall for the Cards this year, but he's a sharp 10-4 with a 3.42 ERA In 21 games vs. Atlanta.

He'll be opposed by Max Fried (6-1, 2.52), who is on absolute fire and who this base is primarily based upon.

Fried just went seven scoreless vs. the Dodgers and posted a season-high ten strikeouts. He's also 4-0 with a 0.34 ERA in five appearances vs. the Cards.

This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DUEL on the UNDER Orioles/Angels.

Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a DUEL here in my opinion.

Baltimore continues to steamroll towards the playoffs, as it's now won four in a row, including the first two games of this series. It's seen the total go OVER in four straight, but note that LA has in fact seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five when trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent.

We have two veteran's squaring off on the mound tonight, with Kyle Gibson (13-8, 5.15 ERA) vs. Patrick Sandoval (7-11, 4.19.) 

Look for these two guys to battle into the deeper innings, and for that to ultimately help in keeping this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AL PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER White Sox/Royals.

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Tuesday finally.

The White Sox have lost four straight after dropping the opener of this series here yesterday by a score of 12-1, and they've seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four.

It's interesting to note though that the ChiSox have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after a ten runs or greater loss in their last outing.

KC has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight.

All of these recent "overs" have only helped though in contributing to this particular O/U number today in being a little bit TOO high now in my opinion.

These two pitchers have seen better days, but they won't be lacking motivation here. Dylan Cease (6-7, 4.91 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Brady Singer (8-10, 5.15.) 

The overall situation and the above listed O/U trend both point to the UNDER as the correct call in this one as far as the total is concerned.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Duke.

There are always super high expectations for the Clemson Tigers. If they aren't in the Championship game, then essentially the season is viewed as a failure, despite how well the team actually did.

But expectations are also high in Duke this year after the Blue Devils finished 9-4 and a Bowl win under first-year head coach Mike Elko. Riley Leonard won't be intimidated here by Clemson, as he's already battle-tested after last season's stellar performance, throwing for 2,967 yards to go along with 20 TDs and six INTs. 

Cade Klubnik won't have a "cakewalk" time here on the road. Yes, the Tigers are loaded everywhere and I'm not predicting an outright win here or anything for Duke, but the Blue Devils' strength on defense was in their secondary. They also have two great safeties in Brandon Johnson and Jaylen Stinson. 

In a contest that I see being competitive late, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is DUKE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WINNER on the Astros.

There are a ton of implications going on in this game and in this series. Both of these teams are just 1.5 games ahead of Toronto for the final wildcard.

They're both tied for second in the AL West, one game behind the Mariners for the lead.

We have two evenly matched starting pitchers, and each club has enjoyed its fair share of frustrations over the last few weeks.

So in this evenly matched contest, I look for other factors to help me find which way the pendulum will swing as far as value is concerned, and the fact that Houston is 5-1 in its last six after three or more straight losses, does indeed make them the correct call here in this opener in my opinion.

I'm rolling with the ASTROS on Monday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on LAFC.

I simply don't have enough time to be completely detailed with my analysis here. It's a busy time of year and I only have so much time, so I'll be succinct.

Yes, Inter Miami has Messi, but LA FC is simply better in every other regard. The general betting public is quick to hammer Miami now whenever possible, and  here on the road I think the team is getting much too much respect.

Great line value here on the hungry home side, the play is LA FC.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WINNER on Northwestern.

With so much action going on, I'm really busy and just don't have the time to write out my full analysis for every pick. 

So I'll be keeping it succinct a lot throughout the season.

The bottom line with this pick is that the Wildcats will for sure be an improved team this season. The addition of QB Ben Bryant was significant. Last year with Cinncy he had a 21:7 TD:INT.

Rutgers' QB Gavin Wimasatt struggled last year.

The outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

The play is NORTHWESTERN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PUNI$HER on Arsenal.

Both teams are looking for a better result here after a mediocre start to the season, but I believe this one definitely favors Arsenal.

Manchester United came from behind to manage a 3-2 win over Nottingham Forest, while Arsenal is off a 2-2 draw with Fulham.

The bottom line here though is that home field advantage can not not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one.

Arsenal rarely puts forth a poor effort at the Emirates, and at this price, I don't expect that to happen here on Sunday either.

So lay the price with confidence, the play is ARSENAL.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MLS GOM on Nashville SC.

The bottom line here is that these teams have almost identical numbers/records in front of goal, but Nashville's superior defensive play will ultimately prove to be the difference-maker in this one. 

Nashville SC is winless its last five MLS contests. It came close to breaking that streak last time out against Miami, but drew 0-0. 

Nashville won the reverse fixture 2-1 back in May and I'm expecting an even bigger blowout here at home. 

Charlotte beat Los Angeles FC 2-1 at home, before a satisfying 1-1 draw with OCSC. 

All signs finally point to a letdown here on the road though, and NASHVILLE is going to take advantage and get off the schneid, so lay the price.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on Toledo.

Toledo finished 9-5 last year, and it'll be gunning for the outright upset here. Toledo has the big men to grind with Illinois in the trenches, and a solid ground game to keep the sticks moving. 

But overall, this is a super tough defense that finished No. 1 in the MAC last year. The secondary in particular is deep and experienced. 

Illinois will have to deal with QB Dequan Finn as well, and its weakness on defense is defending the pass.

I expect Toldedo to hang around late, and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Cubs/Reds.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening.

Chicago's three-game win streak came to an end in last night's 3-2 loss here. Chicago has seen the total now go UNDER in five straight, but note that the Cubs have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Reds have now seen the total go UNDER in six straight. That fact though has only helped in driving this particular total here on Saturday a little lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion.

It sets up well from a situational stand point, so that puts Cubs' starter Javier Assad (3-2, 2.96 ERA) and the Reds' Andrew Abbott (8-4, 3.35) in the wrong place at the wrong time here on Saturday.

The situation combined with the trends point to the OVER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Northern Illinois.

Northern Illiois and Boston College each are coming off 3-9 campaigns. 

The Eagles averaged 17.8 PPG, while allowing 30.3. 

The Huskies were more competitive, averaging 27.3 PPG, while allowing 32.8. 

BC was favored by at least 9.5-points on one occassion last year, and the Eagles were unable to cover. 

NIU on the other hand went l-0 as an underdog 9.5 or more points.

I just don't trust BC to cover this large spread.

Grab the points, the play is NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Fresno State.

Purdue has a new head coach in Ryan Walters, who was the defensive coordinator for Illinois for the past two years.

A new face under center for the Boilermakers, as Aidan O'Connell is out, and Hudson Card is in, coming over from Texas after playing four games.

I say there's going to be some chemistry issues out of the gate.

For Fresno State though is loaded with talent from transfers coming in. After starting the year 1-4, the Bulldogs rattled off nine straight wins. 

While I think the outright win is possible, give me the points.

The play is FRESNO STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EPL GOW on Tottenham.

No upsets here. Tottenham does at times "play down" to the level of its competition, but I don't suspect that'll be the case this weekend whatsoever.

Burnley comes in off a narrow 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest, but the Clarets are clearly overmatched here. 

Tottenham is currently in third place right now. It's been in impressive form in league play, but it'll be extra motivated here to return to its winning ways after falling to Fulham in the EFL Cup.

The Spurs won't be taking Burnely lightly either, as the Clarets won the previous match with Tottenham by a 1-0 score in February 2022. 

Ange Postecoglou though has the Hotspur firing on all cylinders right now and I expect that progression to continue here on the road in this favorable spot. 

Lay the price, the play is TOTTENHAM.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Stanford/Hawaii.

I think this is a few too many points in Week 1 for each side to combine to go over this number.

Both teams enter off terrible seasons. Stanford was 3-9, and Hawaii was 3-10. They have a new face in Troy Taylor to try and turn this offense around, but it's going to be a work in progress. 

Hawaii's passing game and offensive line were a weak point last season.

With each team with more questions than answers offensively, everything points to this one staying UNDER the posted number on Friday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NL EAST TOTAL OF YEAR on the OVER Marlins/Nationals.

Both teams have been involved in some lower-scoring affairs, but I'm expecting a "shootout" here now on Friday night.

Miami has been alternating wins and losses over its last five games. It managed the 6-1 win here in last night's series opener.

The Nationals have managed just one run over their last two losses.

We have two decent starters going head-to-head as well, but this is just a case of the Marlins' Eury Perez (5-4, 2.68 ERA) and the Nationals' Jake Irvin (3-5, 4.30) being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The Fish are still in the hunt for a wildcard spot, and they can't afford to look past these opportunities.

For the Nationals, they have incentive here to snap the recent slide at the plate, while at the same time playing spoiler.

As good as Perez's numbers look as well, note that he's 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in his past six starts.

I finally expect some offense to take center stage, so look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Dodgers.

This is an interesting series between the league's best teams. For me though, in a contest that I could easily go either way, and which I envision being decided late or even in extras, the runline option at this price for the red hot Dodgers here at home is just too good to turn down.

And I'd feel that way with essentially anyone that LA put on the mound. I'm not delusional in thinking that Lance Lynn's eye-popping numbers since he came over to the Dodgers are unsustainable over the long-term, but the bottom line here is that I feel the value is still way too good to turn down by getting the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket.

Great value play here on LA on the RUNLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GAME OF MONTH on Utah.

Cam Rising is hurt for the Utes to open up the season after suffering an injury in the Rose Bowl last year, but the offensive line is no joke for Utah. The Gators have a weak offensive attack, and will be concentrating on the run today. 

Special teams and defense will put Utah in fantastic field position as well all game. 

In fact, many believe this will be Kyle Whittingham's strongest defense of all time. 

The home side won't need Rising to rise past the Gators here. Lay the points, the play is UTAH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on NYCFC.

NYCFC will be hungry here after a 3-0 defeat to Cincinnati last Saturday. In fact NYCFC has lost three straight across all matches. That's significant to note though, as NYCFC is in fact 7-3 in its last ten after three or more straight losses in a row.

It beat Montreal 1-0 on the road back on July 1st, but I'm expecting a more decisive victory here. 

CF Montreal is now poised for a letdown after having won all but one of it last five across all competitions. 

But note that CF Montreal definitely doesn't trravel well, having just one win out of its last eight away matches, while losing five and drawing twice. 

It's a big game for the home side as it looks to shake off its recent frustrations and at this price, it's too good to turn down.

The play is NYCFC.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Nats/Jays.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. 

Toronto has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after yesterday's 5-4 loss here to the Nats.

Note though that the Blue Jays have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge an upset home loss as a -150 or greater favorites. 

Both of these starters have been much better over the last month as well and that progression continues here in my estimation, with Patrick Corbin (9-11, 4.70 ERA) going for the visitors, and Chriss Bassitt (12-7, 4.00) countering for the home side.

Everything points to this one staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Twins.

I like the Twins to bounce back here at home after yesterday's 4-2 loss. Minnesota took the opener by a score of 10-6.

Note though that the Twins are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. 

Tyler Bibee (10-3, 3.01 ERA) has been a consistent bright spot for the Guardians all year, but I still give the nod to Sonny Gray (7-6, 3.06) here at home in this revenge situation.

Lay the price, the play is MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the D-Backs runline.

These teams were both really hot coming into this series, and LA managed the 7-4 victory as a -145 favorite.

Arizona won't be rolling over here obviously, I think the revenge factor comes into play here.

And clearly these starters are very evenly matched. This starting pitching matchup is an "Any Given Sunday" type of scenario, in that it would be easy to write a convincing argument for either of these guys to win this game.

And so in a case like that, I invariably feel that the value then swings to the undervalued underdog. 

And in this case, getting Merrill Kelly and the D-Backs with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance on the runline option at this price is just too attractive to turn down in the end.

The play is ARIZONA on the RUNLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Astros/Red Sox.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but that fact has only helped in driving this Monday total a bit higher than it normally would/should be.

Houston has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last night, while Boston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 straight. 

Clearly we know these teams can hit, but I'm finally expecting a bit of a "duel" here in the opener.

The visitors hand the ball to Christian Javier (9-2, 4.52 ERA), while the home side counters with Chris Sale (5-3, 4.68.) 

Javier is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA in four career meetings vs. the Red Sox, while Sale is 5-3 with a 2.56 ERA in ten career starts vs. Houston.

This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PITCHING DOMINATION on the Phillies runline.

I'm not smelling any upsets here. The Cards look completely dejected, and the Phillies are continuing to get stronger with each passing game. It's in fact very reminiscent of last year at this time for the Phillies, where they caught fire and rode the wave to the World Series.

They've outscored the Cards 19-3 over the first two games, and all signs point to another blowout here in my opinion.

The Cards hand the ball to the volatile Drew Rom (0-1, 14.73 ERA), who is set to make his second career start after allowing eight runs over three innings in an 11-1 loss to the lowly Pirates on Monday. 

The home side counters with veteran Aaron Nola (11-8, 4.49), who comes in off a strong performance, allowing two runs over seven innings in a 10-4 victory over the Giants last Monday. 

Nola has once again been much better at home than on the road this year, posting a 3.49 ERA in 11 home starts. 

Look for Philadelphia to continue the HIT PARADE and lay the price with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Orlando City SC.

Orlando City SC enters off a 3-1 MLS win over Chicago, while St. Louis City enters off a 6-3 against Austin. 

Orlando City at home though has been money in the bank, where it's currently unbeaten in seven games. 

This is a big game for Orlando City and while St. Louis is ranked higher, it doesn't travel as well on the road as it plays at home.

Lay this reasonable price, the play is ORLANDO CITY SC.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on SDSU on the moneyline.

Ohio is coming off a great year, reaching the MAC Championship, and winning a Bowl game. Overall the Bobcats finished 10-4. QB Kurtis Ward won the Offensive Player Of The Year. 

Overall Ohio finished 34th on the offensive end, and was solid defensively as well.

The Aztecs finished the season 7-6 overall, and 5-3 in MWC play. In the end SDSU fell 25-23 to MTSU in the Hawaii Bowl.

Note that San Diego State had the most first-team all-MW selections with seven, the most combined first and second team picks with 11, and the most all-conference selections overall with 16. Additionally they had the Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Year in Jack Browning (in fact, over the last eight years, an Aztec has been named Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Year five times.)

Ohio has been consistent, but regression after last year's amazing season seems imminent to me.

I'm going to avoid the spread option and instead confidentally lay the price and take the home side on the moneyline.

The play is SDSU to win this game outright.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Astros.

After three straight losses, including the opener in this one, I expect the Astros to dig deep here and deliver in Detroit.

The Tigers are playing well right now, but they're still just 28-35 on the road.

Note as well that Houston is 7-3 in its last ten after three or more straight losses in a row. It's also 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a road loss as a fav vs. an opponent.

Hunter Brown (9-9, 4.50 ERA) gets the call for the Astros, while Eduardo Rodriguez (9-6, 3.03) counters for the home side.

The overall situation though, combined with the above listed trends do indeed make the Astros worth the price of admission in this one. The play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EPL TOM on the OVER Everton/Wolverhampton.

Here is a great situational play. Everton is 0-2 so far, losing 4-0 to Aston Villa and 1-0 to Fulham. Wolverhampton hasn't had much better success so far, falling 1-0 to Manchester United and 4-1 to Brighton and Hove Albion. 

These two desperate sides will be looking to avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole, and the fact that they haven't had any luck in scoring any goals so far this season, has in fact helped in driving this O/U line a little lower than it normally would/should be.

These teams are poor, but this is a contest that each will feel it can win. I see little defense being played, and ultimately I expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Rangers.

I think the Rangers' run of bad luck comes to an end here. Luck does play a role in long losing streaks, and in long winning streaks. 

Both teams need victories, but it's all hands on deck for Texas today as it looks to get back into the winner's circle after sevem straight losses. That includes the opener of this series last night by a score of 7-5. 

Danning Dunning (9-5, 3.19 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, and he's 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in four career starts vs. the Twins. 

Minnesota now has a six-game lead over the Guardians after last night's come-from-behind win, and I think that complacency finally kicks in a bit here.

Sonny Gray (6-6, 3.15) get s the call for the home side, and he's 9-5 with a 3.17 ERA in 17 career games vs. Texas.

All in all these starters are evenly matched, but look for TEXAS to finally punch through here and find a way to stop the extened, but now unrealistic slide.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ULTIMATE on the UNDER Red Sox/Astros.

Boston has now seen the total go OVER the number in five straight games after losing the first two games of this series. Note though that the Red Sox have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

They've also seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent.

The Astros have seen the total go UNDER in four straight now.

Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but that fact has also helped in driving this total a point higher than it normally would/should be as well in my opinion.

Two super in form starters collide, with Brayan Bello (9-7, 3.70 ERA) going for the Red Sox, and JP France (9-4, 2.75) countering for the home side. 

Look for this afternoon's finale to finally produce a lower-scoring UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Royals/A's.

Both teams have been playing to higher-scoring affairs of late, but all signs point to this one on Wednesday being more of a "duel." 

KC has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four, including in the first two losses of this series.

Note though that KC has seen the total UNDER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent.

Oakland has now seen the total go OVER in five straight after the B2B wins, which is also significant to note, as the A's have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

Cole Ragans (2-1, 2.51 ERA) has looked sharp for the Royals, Adrian Martinez (0-1, 5.85) less so for the A's. 

But here's a big opportunity for Martinez to get back to his previous form, facing this lowly opponent. 

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Red Sox/Astros.

I had a play on the UNDER in the opener of this series yesterday, and that was a loser in the Astros' 9-4 victory. Boston has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight, while Houston has seen the total go OVER in three straight (important to note here though that the Astros have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.)

Here are two starters looking to improve their records, and hopefully lead their team to a win.

The visitors go with Tanner Houck (3-6, 5.05 ERA), while the home side counters with Justin Verlander (2-1, 4.50.) 

Verlander is 8-6 with a 3.36 ERA overall this season. He's 5-6 with a 2.87 ERA in 19 career regular-season starts vs. Boston. 

Houck has been out for two months rehabbing, but that progression has reportedly gone well: "It's good to be back," Houck said. "Long road, but I know things could have been much worse so excited to get back out there (on Tuesday)."

I think the overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to the UNDER as the savvy call as far as the total is concerned this evening. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Red Sox/Astros.

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I look for the opener of this series to be dominated by the men on the mound.

Boston has seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after sweeping at the Yankees over the weekend. Note though that the Red Sox have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. 

Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after losing all three at home to Seattle over the weekend. Note though that the Astros have seen the total UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

James Paxton (7-3, 3.34 ERA) gets the call for Boston, while Christian Javier (8-2, 4.49) counters for the home side.

Look for these two veterans to battle deep, and for this total to ultimatley stay UNDER the posted number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MLS WEST-CONF GOY on St. Louis CITY SC.

St. Louis CITY SC beat Austin 3-2 on the road all the way back on February 25th, and I'm expecting an even bigger blowout here at home.

St. Louis CITY SC went into the break off a 3-0 home win over Miami, and I believe we'll see a similar final outcome here as well.

Austin FC has been hit or miss this year. It's just 9-9 this season, and for the most part it's been better at home than on the road. 

St. Louis leads the Western Conference, and at this price, I think we're getting fantastic value on what I believe to be the overall "better" team. Lay the price for St. Louis CITY SC to win in regulation.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* IL TOM on the OVER Jays/Reds.

Both teams have been playing to some lower-scoring UNDERS of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening in what I feel sets up to be a classic "slug-fest." 

The Jays snapped a two-game slide with the 4-3 win yesterday, and they've now seen the total go UNDER in two straight.

But more importantly, the Reds have now seen the total go UNDER the number in four straight after the setback, and note that Cincinnati has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a dog vs. an opponent.

The starters have been decent:

Hyun-Jin Ryu is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA for the Jays, while Hunter Greene is 2-4 with a 3.93 ERA for the Reds.

This is just a case of these guys being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME today.

Because the overall situation, combined with the above trend points to the OVER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Seahawks.

I like Seattle to keep the foot on the gas here at home vs. "America's team" and to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion.

The Cowboys are just going to go through the motions once again in my estimation after coming up short at home vs. Jacksonville in last week's 28-23 setback. 

Dak Prescott isn't scheduled to see any time, and if he does, it'll be for only a series. Regardless, this Dallas offense looks impotent without Prescott directing the show, and now dealing with the absence of Ezekiel Elliot.

Seattle fell behind Minnesota early last week, but then put the foot on the gas and won 24-13. QB Drew Lock had 191 passing yards, two TD's and an INT. 

Dallas on the other hand turned the ball over three times last week. 

With Seattle expected to work more of its starters into the rotation in Week 2, I'm expecting a complete blowout here.

Lay the points, the play is SEATTLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AL GOY on the Mariners runline.

The Mariners have won four straight, including the opener of this one by a score of 2-0. I think the visiting side continues to build momentum here and while I do absolutely believe an outright win is a possibility, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

Logan Gilbert (10-5, 3.80 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, and he's 3-2 with a 3.72 ERA over eight career starts vs. the Astros. 

He'll be opposed by Framber Valdez (9-8, 3.31), who has struggled of late, posting an elevated 5.52 ERA with four dingers allowed over his last two starts. He's had plenty of success vs. the Mariners in the past, going 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA, but this is a case of that being "then," and this being "now." 

Seattle is 6-2 vs. the Astros this year, including 4-1 at Minute Maid Park.

Usually, I like to stand in front of winning streaks or losing streaks, but in this case, the momentum that the Mariners have created right now is very real.

I'm laying the price here for SEATTLE on the RUNLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EPL GOM on Newcastle United on the spread option (+1).

Newcastle United is off the commanding 5-1 win over Aston Villa and with upcoming games vs. Liverpool and Brighton and Hove Albion, I think it'll, at the very least, be able to cover with the spread option.

Newcastle United features an awesome player in Callum Wilson, and I think he'll keep his team in form vs. Erling Haaland and company.

This won't be a cake-walk whatsoever for Man City, who got the better of Burnely 3-0 in its opener.

Everything points to a competitive affair. The play is NEWCASTLE UNITED on the SPREAD OPTION.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Mariners/Astros.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening.

The Mariners have seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after taking three of four at KC this week. Despite their 6-4 high-scoring win yesterday, note that the Mariners have still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

The Astros took two of three at the Marlins, and the final two games did go OVER the number. 

Two really good teams here, each with their eyes set on a playoff spot. 

And two really decent starters going head-to-head, with Seattle turning to Bryce Miller (7-4, 4.04 ERA), and the home side countering with JP France (9-3, 2.74.) 

I say this total is a little high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the GIANTS on the MONEYLINE.

Carolina lost 27-0 to the Jets in its opener, and now I think it'll have its hands full here with the other New York team on Friday night.

Instead of worrying about the spread option though, I'm going to recommend just playing New York on the moneyline option.

The Giants are off a 21-16 loss at Detroit.

The old eye test though reveals that Carolina sure looked like garbage though overall. Bryce Young was 4 of 6 for 21 yards. His offensive line was terrible.

The defense was the brigh tspot in the 27-0 loss. 

New York essentially sat out all of its offensive starters last week, with QB Tommy DeVito seeing the bulk of the time by going 15 of 24 for 155 yards and a TD.

New York has the better defense is playing at home.

Lay the price on the GIANTS on the MONEYLINE.

Good luck, NP