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INCORRECT IDE CHOSEN: THE PLAY IS ON NEW ENGLAND.

This is a 4% TOP SIDE PLAY on the New England Patriots.

I had the Hawks and the UNDER in the Super Bowl last year, but I think the Patriots can, at the very least, take this game right down to the wire and comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

The Pats had one of the easiest paths to the Super Bowl last year, but that won't be the case this season, starting with this Week 1 matchup.

New England has some offensive line issues, but Drake Maye should be able to take advantage of a few opportunities himself. 

The Patriots defense was a strength last year, and that will again be the case this season. 

Seattle had success on the ground in the Super Bowl vs. the Pats last year, but Kenneth Walker III isn't on the team anymore, and Zach Charbonnet is injured, leaving RB's George Holani and Jadarian Prince to shoulder the load.

Sam Darnold relies a lot on the play action, and that chemistry could potentially take an early hit.

New England's secondary was great last year, and it doesn't give up a lot over the top, so Darnold's PA numbers are poised for regression in my opinion.

Here is Drake Maye about this revenge game: “It’s definitely, I wouldn’t say extra, just a little bit — It’s a chance to start the season off strong, on a good foot, and knowing that the opponent we have, you get to say a bit of your revenge game. But I wouldn’t say revenge game. They won the big one. We’ve got to start the season off and you can’t get that game back that we lost. So, we’re on to something new,” Maye said.

Maye has new weapons, though, including AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs. 

I'm going contrarian on opening night. I think the most likely outcome is the outright victory for NEW ENGLAND, but my official call for this play is to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on Florida State.

FSU has played a game and beat New Mexico State, so the pressure is on SMU to perform here.

It's a prime-time kick-off on the road with a hostile crowd, and a conference contest to boot. 

That puts the pressure on Lashlee to be precise with his play-calling right out of the gate and then for QB Jennings to get the job done.

FSU has a difficult schedule, but it catches a break here facing SMU right out of the gate, before its offense has been tested.

While I think the outright win is the most likely outcome, let's grab the points; the play is on FLORIDA STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on Louisville.

I think the 24th-ranked Louisville Cardinals can keep it competitive late facing off against the No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels.

Pete Golding is ready to lead Ole Miss for the entire season after taking over when Lane Kiffin left for LSU.

Ole Miss returns QB Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy, and they helped post a 13-2 record last year. The biggest turnover for the team has been with the coaching staff.

Louisville returns star running back Isaac Brown.

One area Ole Miss struggled in last year was defending the run. The Cardinals will be pretty good in that department once again this season.

They have QB Lincoln Kienholz under center, and he played in 12 games over three seasons for Ohio State; he's mobile and has the ability to throw on the run.

Ole Miss has tried to keep its schemes similar while completely changing the coaching staff, so I believe LOUISVILLE has a window of opportunity to take advantage of here.

No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% ATS BLOOD-BATH on Cal.

There is a lot of hype surrounding Bob Chesney, and while I'm sure he'll improve UCLA's record from last year, he still has plenty of new faces and systems to deal with, especially in this first road game of the year.

Cal has a new coach as well, and I like quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele at home.

This is a big game for both sides, but I say that the home field advantage can't be ignored.

UCLA had a 1-5 away record last year, while Cal had a 4-2 home record.

I think the outright win is the most likely outcome for CAL, but my official call for this pick is to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% ATS WINNER on San Jose State.

San Jose State lost 42-26 to USC in Week 0, while EMU won a conference opener at home versus newly-promoted Sacramento State 28-17.

I like San Jose's QB Luke Weaver, and I believe he'll keep his team competitive throughout.

While I think the outright win is the most likely outcome for SJSU, let's grab the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% WINNER on Georgia Tech.

Colorado has a much bigger turnover with its roster to deal with to open the season.

Last year GT ran for 320 yards on the Buffs, but the game was only close because the Yellow Jackets were -3 in turnover margin.

Both teams stumbled down the stretch last season, but I think Alberto Mendoza is in a good spot here to pick up right where Haynes King left off. 

Colorado lost its final five games last year, allowing an average of 40 points over that stretch.

I'm banking on GEORGIA TECH pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover, as Deion Sanders' team head home for a much more favorable matchup against Weber State (the Jackets on the other hand have a super difficult game against Tennessee after this, so they can't look past this opening opportunity for a solid performance).

Lay the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% REVENGE BK on the Diamondbacks on the runline.

It's an important series for Arizona as it looks to chase down one of the final NL Wildcard spots, which Philly currently owns one of.

Philadelphia won 2-1 in yesterday's opener, but I like Rodriguez here at home vs. Luzardo.

Long story short, I think the value here lies in grabbing the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUNLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOP SIDE on the Dream.

The Lynx's six-game win streak came to an end last time out at home versus a revenge-minded Golden State side, falling 80-66 as 5.5-point favorites.

Now they're on the road to face another revenge-minded side, although these teams are 1-1 in the season series. Atlanta won 91-90 in their season opener in Minnesota, before then falling 96-81 as 2.5-point dogs in Minnesota a couple of weeks later.

The Dream just had their four-game win streak snapped with a 101-83 loss here at home to Portland as 12.5-point favorites, but I think they got caught looking ahead to this final contest before the Women's World Cup break in Germany.

I think the DREAM are better suited to bounce back here at home before the break, and I think the Lynx take another small step back; the outright win is the most likely outcome in my opinion, but I'm grabbing the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Mercury.

The Mercury play with the double revenge factor.

Washington gets caught "looking ahead" to its game at LA tomorrow night, before the 3-week World Cup break.

While I believe the outright win isn't out of the question, my official call is to grab as many points as you can in what I believe is a great situational play on the MERCURY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% BK on the Phoenix Mercury.

The Mercury made it to the WNBA Finals last year, but they've now already been eliminated from Playoff contention this season.

Phoenix is out to play spoiler here for the playoff-bound Mystics.

This is the first of two straight here and I like the home side to avenge an earlier loss in the Nation's capital and to play with pride. These players aren't little babies like the NBA players in a similar situation after getting eliminated from contention.

While I believe an outright victory is the most likely outcome, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the MERCURY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on Golden State.

Golden State plays with the triple revenge factor after losing all three earlier games this season.

Minnesota has won six straight, including four straight on the road, now returns home, but will have nearly a week off before one final game at Atlanta, before the break for the Women's cup in Germany for three weeks, and I believe the Lynx will come out tonight flat-footed and get caught "looking ahead."

I played against the Valkyries in their last loss vs. Chicago, but with four difficult road games before their World Cup break, Golden State doesn't have the luxury to look past anyone.

Golden State can delay the inevitable here for Minnesota as far as locking down the No. 1 seed in the West, but the Valkyries are still trying to solidify the second spot, while also trying to avenge the earlier setbacks.

I believe this one will come "down to the wire," so I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on the VALKYRIES.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% BOOKIEKILLER on the TITANS in the FIRST HALF.

Seattle didn't play any starters in its loss in Week 1 at home to Dallas, and its not expected to start here any in Game 2 in Tennessee either.

Cam Ward and the starters are expected to see between 20 and 30 snaps on Sunday night. I think that'll be enough to get the job done. Especially in the FIRST HALF.

Seattle's back-up defense struggled a bit last week, while Tennessee's looked decent in the win.

I also like Tennessee to win this game outright, but my official call is to lay the points and take the TITANS in the FIRST HALF.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% MILLENIUM PLAY on the Chicago Sky.

Indiana comes in gassed after playing at New York last night, as this represents the finale of a five-game road trip. 

A letdown feels imminent here with two nights off before a home game finally against Connecticut before the break.

Chicago comes in having won three straight and it plays with the "double revenge" factor after two close losses against the Fever already this season.

Look for the SKY to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; grab as may points as you can!

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% BK on the Dallas Wings.

I think the Fever finally have a letdown here after three straight wins on the road and five straight wins overall.

These teams have split two games this year, but Dallas plays with revenge following a SU/ATS loss at Indiana last week. 

Dallas is desperate to snap a string of poor play and also avoid a third-straight loss.

I think Indiana suffers a classic letdown here finally and I expect Dallas to step up and find a way to get the job done.

And while I really do think the most likely outcome is an outright WINGS victory, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on the Golden State Valkyries.

To say this is a revenge game would be an understatement of epic proportions. 

Minnesota has won both previous matchups with Golden State already this year, and they've won all eight head-to-head matchups of all time, which includes two in a first round playoff sweep last season.

The Lynx are finally poised for a letdown here as they play their third straight on the road and who are coming off an emotional 92-87 win at Las Vegas on Saturday. 

Both teams have already clinched a playoff spot, but Minnesota could also potentially be caught looking ahead here to their game in the Nation's capital after this.

Golden State has won six straight and I think they step up here and finally deliver their first win and cover in this series.

It's a great situational play on the VALKYRIES, and while I believe the outright win is the most likely outcome, the official play is to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% WEST-CONF GOW on the Wings.

This is a great overall situational play in my opinion. I like the revenge-minded visiting side and think it catches the Valkyries at a really great time.

Golden State has won five straight, including a 94-76 win at Dallas on August 7th. 

But with a game at No. 1 Minnesota following this game, I think this sets up as a classic "trap" for Golden State. It's a letdown spot following five straight wins, and a look-ahead position with a contest vs. the Conference's No. 1 team up next.

For Dallas, the Wings are sitting in fourth and looking to break a string of poor play, including a 98-87 loss at Indiana last time out. 

They've had two nights off to prepare, and I think they will, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire and comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

The play is on DALLAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 0.5% BK on the Broncos.

Falcons are super injured coming into the Preseason and are working under new offensive and defensive systems.

Look for DENVER to take this Week 1 preseason game a lot more seriously and lay the points with confidence. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOP SIDE on Washington.

I like the Mystics to bounce back and avenge the loss here on Tuesday (I had Las Vegas on Tuesday).

Look for the Aces to get caught looking ahead to their home game here vs. Minnesota.

Grab the points with the MYSTICS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOP PLAY on the Tempo.

The Tempo play with double revenge and they catch the Wings at a great time here. 

Dallas isn't playing well right now and they get caught looking ahead to their game vs. Las Vegas after this.

A great situational play on TORONTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOP PLAY on the Las Vegas Aces.

This is the first of two straight here, and the Aces play with the added incentive of "revenge" following an earlier loss this year.

Look for the defending champs to dig deep, to rally, and to not only win, but to win by a sizeable margin tonight.

Lay the points, the play is on LAS VEGAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOP PLAY on the Connecticut Sun.

Phoenix stumbled at Atlanta in its last game and I think it'll get caught looking ahead to its upcoming contest in the Nation's capital.

The SUN play with revenge, and I look for that motivation to be a difference-maker tonight.

The outright is possible, but my official call is to grab as many points as you can in what I believe is a great situational play.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BEST OF THE BEST on the Atlanta Dream.

Look for the "home floor" advantage to prove to be crucial here for the Dream, as they look to bounce back off a loss to Las Vegas.

Lay the points with confidence, the play is on ATLANTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% BK on the Phoenix Mercury.

Just a great situational spot for the Mercury to get back on track; lay the points with confidence on PHOENIX.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BIG-CHALK RUNLINE CHOKE-OUT on the White Sox.

I have no issue laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

The play is CHICAGO on the RUNLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on FRANCE to qualify for the final.

France's attacking depth will prove too much for Spain to contend with.

This wager is on France to qualify for the final, whether that's in regulation, extra time or the shoot-out.

The play is on FRANCE TO QUALIFY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% LATE-BREAKER on the SUN.

I think Portland suffers a letdown here after its big 102-92 win at Atlanta and with more high-profile games at Washington and Minnesota after this.

Connecticut plays with revenge as well following a loss at Portland at the start of the year.

The Sun hit the road for a six game road trip after this, putting further importance onto this winnable home game.

While I believe the outright win is the most likely outcome for CONNECTICUT, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SUPER BLOWOUT on the Chicago Sky.

The Sky play with revenge and they catch the Wings at a great time in my opinion.

Dallas has won four straight, but now returns home for the first time in two weeks. With a few days off after this followed by a big game vs. the Liberty, this sets up as a classic letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side, which = trap game.

No outright, but a great situational play on CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SITUATIOAL ATS BEATDOWN on Atlanta.

Atlanta has lost seven straight against the spread, but I look for it to not only win tonight, but to win by a sizeable margin in this favorable matchup.

While Portland has covered in three straight, look for them to finally stumble here in this difficult road venue.

Overall, a great situational play on ATLANTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BLOOD-BATH on Belgium on the goal line spread option (+1).

I'm expecting an extremely tight and competitive battle to reach extra time.

The play is on BELGIUM on the GOALLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Toronto Tempo.

After five straight wins and covers, including back-to-back road games at Atlanta and Washington to open up their trip, I think the Valkyries will finally stumble here North of the border in their first ever matchup vs. the Tempo.

Toronto enters as the hungrier team following back-to-back home losses.

Golden State finishes its road trip with stops at Connecticut and Indiana and I believe it gets caught looking ahead.

It's a trap for Golden State; grab the, it's a great situational lay on the TEMPO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% WESTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Seattle Storm.

The Storm play with revenge following an 88-83 loss at home to LA last month, and note that Seattle is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU home loss vs. an opponent.

Grab the points, the play is on the STORM.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SITUATIONAL MONEY-MAKER on the REDS on the RUNLINE.

The Brewers have won the first three games of this four-game series by at least two runs, but I believe they'll have their hands full in the finale, in what shapes up to be a very evenly matched starting pitching matchup.

The Reds turn to Chase Burns (9-1, 2.36 ERA), who is coming off a rare shaky no-decision vs. the Pirates, allowing five runs over six innings. The silver lining was his 10 K's. 

Over 91.2 innings, he owns a sharp 112:29 K:BB. He's also 4-0 on the road.

He'll be opposed by Jacob Misiorowski (9-3, 1.45 ERA), who gave up one run over six innings in a win over the Cubs last time out. He has now posted nine straight quality starts.

It's difficult to say anything negative about Misiorowski and the Brewers right now, but the value now swings the other way for the revenge-minded Reds in my opinion, as this starting pitching matchup is a "wash" in my eyes.

The play is CINCINNATI on the RUNLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BLOWOUT on the Las Vegas Aces.

The Aces have been great on the road, going 9-2 SU and 6-4 ATS. 

The Liberty have been pedestrian at home, going 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS.

Las Vegas plays with the immediate "revenge" factor following an 87-76 loss at home to New York as 2.5-point favorites last week (I had the Liberty in that one).

While I believe the outright win is the most likely outcome for LAS VEGAS, I look for the road-tested and revenge-minded defending champs to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire and grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% BK on South Africa +0.5 +120 on the goalline option.

South Africa has looked great over its last two games, as it relies on a strong defensive setup and for the other team to make the first mistake. They looked strong in their games vs. Czechia and South Korea.

Jonathan David and Cyle Larin are great talents for Canada, but the 2-1 loss to Switzerland means that they have to play this game in the USA.

The Canadians really road the wave of momentum on home soil, but that impact will not be felt here at the SoFi Stadium in California.

I think that SOUTH AFRICA has much more than just a puncher's chance in this one.

The play is to grab on the SPREAD option.

Good luck, N

This is a 1% WC WINNER on Colombia +0.5 -105 on the goalline spread option.

The top two teams in Group K collide at the Hard Rock stadium in Miami on Saturday, and the winner will win the group. Portugal needs an outright victory to win the group, while Colombia needs just a single point.

It's Luis Suarez and Cristiano Ronaldo going head-to-head for the first time ever at the World Cup and I'm expecting this to be an extremely competitive match.

COLOMBIA has much more than just a "puncher's chance" at winning outright, but the value in my opinion lies in grabbing the underdog on the spread option (+0.5 -105).

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BLOWOUT on the Las Vegas Aces.

The Aces play with revenge following a 96-66 loss at Dallas as 2.5-point favorites two weeks ago, and note that Las Vegas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

Dallas is coming off back-to-back wins, but hasn't covered in three straight. It won 112-110 in OT at Seattle last time out, unable to cover the massive 10.5-point spread.

With a difficult upcoming home game vs. Minnesota, Dallas could potentially be caught looking ahead here as well.

I played against Las Vegas in its 87-76 home loss to New York last time out, but now I like A'ja Wilson and the home side to bounce back here and to atone for that blowout loss in Dallas ten days ago.

A great situational play on the ACES.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% WC WINNER on Croatia on the goal line option at -1.

The Croatians need a win over a 4-2 loss to England. I had England in that first game. But now I like Croatia to bounce back and to earn a full 3 points in this favorable matchup.

Panama lost 1-0 to Ghana. They looked decent and probably should have won that game, but this is a big step up in competition. 

Croatia is loaded with talent and will be playing with desperation. I expect a blowout win. Lay the goalline option on CROATIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SUPER SPECIAL on the Sky.

The Sky have lost four straight, but they've covered in their last three.

They almost beat New York, falling 96-95 at home as 10.5-point dogs last time out.

They play with the added incentive of "revenge" here as well, following a 99-89 home loss as 3.5-point dogs last month. 

Dallas is just 3-3 in its last six and with two road games at Seattle, Las Vegas, and then a home game vs. Minnesota, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot, but also a potential look-ahead position as well.

It's a trap for Dallas, and while I'm not calling for the outright upset, I do look for the hungry and revenge-minded Sky to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Grab the points, the play is on CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

This is a GAME 6 WINNER on the Spurs.

Adam Silver and the League would LOVE for this series to go to a Game 7, and that's exactly what I'm expecting.

Yes, the Knicks pulled off the most epic come back in NBA Finals history last time out, but look for the "home floor" advantage to prove to be critical for Wemby the SPURS on Saturday night

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% NON-CONF GOW on the Spurs.

I don't think San Antonio is going to get swept in this series, and I believe it's best opportunity to rebound is in Game 3. It's essentially a "do or die" game for Wemby and the visiting side.

Including the series sweep over Cleveland, New York has now won and covered in four straight road games in the Playoffs, but now returning home, a letdown "feels" imminent finally (to me at least).

I think the most likely outcome for the desperate visiting side will be an outright victory, but the official call for this play is to grab as many points as you can with SAN ANTONIO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SUPER SPECIAL on the Jays on the RUNLINE.

Sanchez and Corbin, a couple southpaws, or more evenly matched than what this line is suggesting in my opinion. I think they're essentially a "wash."

The Jays are 17-16 on the runline at home, while Philly is 11-18 on the road.

Great value here getting the extra 1.5 runs of insurance at this price.

The plays is on TORONTO on the RUNLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Ti-Cats.

Hamilton plays with revenge after Montreal knocked it out of the Playoffs in the East Final last year.

The Ti-Cats return the same team and got some upgrades at receiver.

The Als have issues with injuries. Also, their QB Davis Alexander has had limited reps to this point after a preseason knee injury.

Grab the points with the revenge-minded home side at home on Opening night.

The play is on HAMILTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% WORLD EXCLUSIVE side play on the Knicks.

The Spurs lost 124-113 to the Knicks in the "Play In Tournament Finale," and I think that the more rested visiting side has a legitimate shot at winning this game outright.

New York has the big men to slow down Wemby.

New York has likely the best backcourt in the league.

San Antonio is exhausted after the seven game win over the defending champs.

I'm grabbing the points with NEW YORK, but won't be shocked if the KNICKS win Game 1 outright.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOP SITUATIONAL PLAY on the Astros on the runline.

I'm giving Arrighetti the slight nod over Eovaldi in this matchup, despite being on the road.

With a chance to take three of four vs their division rival, I think the Astros have a legit shot at taking the finale as well after last night's 4-3 win.

Let's lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is on HOUSTON on the RUNLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% PUCKLINE BK on the Canadiens.

Jakub Dobes is outplaying Frederik Andersen already and I believe that'll again be the case in Game 2.

These teams are evenly matched, but I believe Montreal has the slight advantage in net right now, and that tips the scales in its favor once again.

While the outright is possible, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance.

The play is on MONTREAL on the PUCKLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Knicks.

After playing back-to-back Game 7's, I believe the Cavaliers come out flat here in Game 1 vs. the rested Knicks.

I'm not expecting any upsets like we saw last night; look for the extra time off to prove to be hugely beneficial for the KNICKS.

I expect the home side to keep the proverbial foot on the gas pedal from start to finish, so lay the points with confidence

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOP PLAY on the Spurs.

These teams faced off five times in the regular season, and the Spurs went 4-1 SU/ATS.

The Playoffs are now here, and OKC has the advantage, but look for SAN ANTONIO to, at the very least, once again keep this game very competitive throughout.

I'm not calling for an outright upset, but everything points to an extremely tight finish in my opinion; grab the points, the play is on SAN ANTONIO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BLOWOUT on the Cavaliers.

This has been a back-and-forth series to say the least.

I anticipate another battle here in Game 7, a type of contest where whichever team has its hands on the ball last will come out on top type thing; because of that, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on CLEVELAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Sparks.

LA beat Toronto here 99-95 on Thursday, but I'm expecting an even bigger blowout this tie around.

The Sparks hit the road for four straight following this game, and I look for them to keep the proverbial "foot on the gas" from start to finish.

Lay the points, the play is LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the PADRES.

I'm going to classify King and Misiorowski as a "wash" between starters.

San Diego is 11-17 on the road, while Milwaukee is 14-8 at home.

Off yesterday's tight 6-4 series-opening loss, I look for the PADRES to respond here on Wednesday and while the outright win is not out of the question, I'm going to lay the price on the RUNLINE for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% WESTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Ducks on the puckline (I also like straight up as well.)

We have an interesting second round matchup in Las Vegas starting on Monday night, and it's one the favors the visiting side.

I'm going to give you two different options to wager on Anaheim with, it all depends on your risk tolerance.

I like the Ducks to win in Game 1 outright, but I'm personally going to be laying what I feel is a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance.

Because in what I view as an extremely evenly matched Game 1 and series overall, one that could very well see extra time, I definitely want to have that extra 1.5 goals in my proverbial "back pocket" here on the road in Game 1.

Anaheim finished 43-33-6 overall, including 19-20-2 on the road, while Las Vegas was 39-26-17 overall, including 20-12-9 at home.

These teams played against each other three times in the regular season and the Ducks won all three by an identical 4-3 score, with two being decided in overtime.

All three games were extremely competitive and all three were decided by a single goal.

Las Vegas plays with the triple-revenge factor, but this has been a tough matchup for it all season and I'm expecting that to again be the case here in this series, but especially in Game 1.

The Ducks rolled by the Oilers in six games in the first round, which is extremely impressive considering that Edmonton has been to the Stanley Cup Final in back-to-back years. 

Vegas won in six games over Utah, including the final three, but while Utah did have a very impressive overall season to even make the Playoffs, this is now a clear step up in competition facing the red-hot Ducks, who, as I've already outlined, it went 0-3 against this season.

Las Vegas enters averaging 3.2 goals per game, which ranks 14th, while allowing 3.0 goals per game, which ranks 12th. 

Anaheim averages 3.2 goals per game, ranked 13th, while allowing 3.5, which is ranked 29th.

Lukas Dostal is expected between the pipes for Anaheim and he enters at 30-20-4 overall and with a 3.12 goals against, while Carter Hart is expected to counter for the Golden Knights, and he enters with an 11-3-3 overall record and a 2.71 goals against. 

Las Vegas still has plenty of experience from the 2023 Cup-winning team, led by Jack Eichel and Matt Stone, but now these guys have to face a Ducks' defense, led by Jackson Lacombe, who essentially completely shutdown the best player in the World in Connor McDavid in the first round. 

As I also already outlined, this has just been a super difficult matchup for the Knights all year, as Anaheim brings speed, veteran leadership, specifically Granlund and Kreiner, all of which have been stylistic matchup problems for Las Vegas all season.

I think Dostal has what it takes to "steal" a game on the road to open up this series as well. 

I think the Ducks throw their best shot at the Golden Knights in Game 1. I'm playing ANAHEIM on the PUCKLINE, but I also like it to win outright as well.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% EASTERN CONFERENCE GOW on the Knicks.

We have an interesting matchup here in Game 1 of the second round between the Philadelphia 76ers and the New York Knicks.

These teams played against each other four times in the regular season: the 76ers won 116-107 at New York as 6.5-point dogs on December 19th.

Then the Knicks lost 130-119 at home as 4-point favorites on January 3rd.

New York then won the third matchup in Philadelphia by a score of 112-109 as a 1-point favorite, before then winning the fourth game in Philly by a score of 138-89 as a 2.5-point favorite.

The Knicks were favored in every game and the visiting side would go on to win outright in each contest.

Overall it was very evenly matched, but I believe that the 76ers will come in fatigued after their seven game marathon first round victory over the favored Celtics, while the small amount of extra time off after taking out the Hawks in six games will prove to be super beneficial for the home side.

The tale of the tape as far as their stats are concerned finds the Knicks averaging 117.9 points per game, which ranks ninth, while allowing 111.5, which ranks fifth. 

The 76ers average 117.3 points per game, which ranks 14th, while allowing 117.5, which ranks 19th. On most nights, the margin of error is slim for Philadelphia when it comes to its success.

Philadelphia was 44-37 overall, including a respectable 22-19 on the road, but New York was 53-28 overall, including a commanding 30-10 straight up and 29-14 against the spread in front of the home town crowd. 

The 76ers closed out their series against the Celtics strong, winning and covering over the final three games. They took full advantage of Boston without Tatum in Game 7, jumping out to an early lead and then never looking back.

But, after that emotional and draining first round win, I think a letdown is now imminent for Philly, which only managed the 89 points the last time it was in this building.

The Knicks won and covered in the final three games of their series against the Hawks, including a dominant 140-89 win in Game 6. 

New York's defense hit a different gear over those final three games, as they'd go on to hold the Hawks to 99 points or fewer in each. 

Karl-Anthony Towns also recorded triple-doubles in two games of the series against the Hawks.

Joel Embiid and the 76ers took advantage of a Tatum-less Celtics team in Game 7, but Embiid has more difficulty guarding centers like Towns, who has to be guarded on the perimeter as a viable threat as well.

Philadelphia had never overcome a 3-1 deficit in the playoffs to advance and, as I've already stated, a letdown sure appears imminent here to me for the overachieving 76ers.

New York has a rest advantage and the home floor advantage and it catches Philadelphia off an emotional and exhausting come-from-behind series win over one of its main rivals the last few years.

Guys, I expect NEW YORK to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion.

Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% PLAY on the Lakers.

LA jumped out to the early 3-0 lead in this series, but Houston has fought its way back into it now with back-to-back wins of its own.

Now I expect The King to lead his team to, at the very least, a comfortable cover in Houston in Game 6.

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries, but look for LA's experience in these big moments to also play a part.

The outright is clearly very possible, but my official call is to grab as many points as you can with the LAKERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Heat.

Miami has historically dominated this series. It went 3-1 SU in the divisional series this year.

The Hornets won the most recent one, so it's the Heat the play with the added incentive of "revenge."

Charlotte was 21-20 SU at home, while the Heat were 23-17-1 ATS on the road this season.

With the majority going one way with this wager, I'm going the other.

The play is on MIAMI.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SUPER SHOCKER on the Mets on the runline.

The Mets are 4-3 on the road, while the Dodgers are 6-3 at home.

New York is now desperate to snap a five-game slide.

LA is coming off a 5-2 loss to Texas.

David Peterson sure hasn't lived up to expectations so far for the Mets this year, entering 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA. He does own a decent 14:6 K:BB.

Peterson went six scoreless against the Pirates to open the season, but has stumbled the last two games. Peterson's spot in the rotation could be at risk, but I think he'll return to form here tonight and match his counterpart Justin Wrobleski, who is coming over a win over the Jays, allowing one run over five innings. 

It was his first start of the season and he got the win despite striking out just two and producing five whiffs. 

He also displayed poor control in walking four.

Look for the hungry Mets and a determined Peterson too, at the very least, keep this one competitive and close.

While I think the outright win is a very real possibility for NEW YORK, I think the best value play is to grab the Mets on the RUNLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BOOKIEKILLER on the Cleveland Guardians on the runline option.

Bibee hasn't gone past the fifth inning in any of his three starts this season, but he's looked solid so far this year and I expect him to carry over that consistency into this Sunday night game.

Sale took a big step back in his last start for Atlanta and I think the veteran could falter again here.

The Cleveland bullpen is fresh off last night's 6-0 win and I think an outright victory is a very real possibility this evening as well for the Guardians.

That said, the best value play on the Sunday nightery, in my opinion, is to grab the GUARDIANS on the RUNLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOP PLAY on the JAYS on the RUNLINE.

We have two evenly matched pitchers here going head-to-head.

After yesterday's humbling 14-2 loss here to LA, the JAYS will be risking life and limb to try and avoid a sixth straight loss. 

The outright is the most likely outcome for TORONTO in my opinion, but the value is simply too good to turn down on the RUNLINE option in the end.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SUPER-BOOKIEKILLER on Connecticut.

What more can be said about these two teams that hasn't been said already?

If you're wagering on this contest, then you know the strengths and weaknesses of these teams, the cast of characters on each side, and how they got here to the National Championship Game.

I just can't see the Wolverines rolling over the Huskies, the same way they did the Wildcats in the Final Four.

Expect some sharps to grab the Huskies on the moneyline option, but I'm grabbing as many points as I can in a contest that I see being incredibly competitive until the final moments.

The play is on UCONN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on UConn.

The Huskies have much more than just a "puncher's chance" on Sunday vs. Duke.

The Blue Devils have looked susceptible this tournament.

In what I believe will end up being an instant Tournament "classic," in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on UCONN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SUPER-SHOCKER on the 76ers.

Philly is 19-16 SU on the road, while Charlotte is 19-17 at home.

The 76ers play with the added incentive of revenge here, following a humbling 130-93 loss here back in January.

Philly has been playing a lot better of late, though, winning three of its last four and off a huge 157-137 win over the Bulls.

Grab the points with the 76ERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SWEET 16 ATS BLOOD-BATH on Duke.

Duke's experience, depth and offense will carry it to a solid win and cover here in the Sweet 16 in my opinion.

Lay the points with confidence on the BLUE DEVILS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% BOOKIEKILLER on Texas.

The Boilermakers are in for a fight from the undervalued Longhorns in my opinion.

In a contest that I envision coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points with TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% NBA SUPER-DOG on the Hawks.

While I feel the outright win is the most likely outcome for the slight underdog Hawks here in Detroit on Wednesday night, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with the revenge-minded visiting side.

Atlanta is 40-32 overall this year, including 19-16 SU and 20-15 ATS on the road this season. 

The Hawks are first in the Southeast this season, and they come in playing their best basketball of the year, going 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games.

Atlanta most recently destroyed Memphis by a score of 146-107 as 13.5-point favorites, but it's the Hawks that play with revenge tonight in Detroit after falling 142-115 here back in mid-December.

The old saying: That was, and then is now! could not be more apt in my opinion as far as this game here in March is concerned.

The Hawks enter averaging 118.3 points per game, which is ranked seventh, while allowing 116.4, which is ranked 19th. Dyson Daniels had 28 points and six assists in the most recent victory.

Detroit is 52-19 overall, including 27-8 SU at home. The Pistons, though, are a sub-par 17-18 against the spread in front of the hometown crowd this season. 

Detroit has been playing well lately as well, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS over its last four. It's coming off a big 113-110 home win over the Lakers are 1.5-point dogs.

The Pistons could very well be caught "looking ahead" here, though, to their game tomorrow night versus the Pelicans.

Detroit averages 117.3 points per game, which is ranked eighth, while allowing 109.5, which is ranked third. Jalen Duren had 23 points on 67 percent shooting in the Pistons most recent win.

This game comes down to the intangibles, though, on Wednesday, in my opinion. Looking more closely at their numbers over their last ten games finds them very evenly matched.

The Pistons are 7-3 straight up, averaging 119.3 points per game over that span, while their opposition has averaged 108.9 points per game. 

The Hawks are 9-1 straight up in their last ten, and they've averaged 123.6 points during that stretch, while conceding 110.3.

Injuries are another issue working in favor of the Hawks, with Jalen Johnson listed day-to-day for the visitors.

Marcus Sasser is listed day-to-day for the Pistons, while Cade Cunningham and Isaiah Stewart are both still out for the foreseeable future for the home side.

One last thing to mention as far as "recent form" is concerned, sees Atlanta 8-2 against the spread in its last ten, while Detroit is a pedestrian 5-5 against the spread in its last ten games for bettors.

I think the HAWKS have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright. I really do see this contest coming right down to the wire, though, so in a game that's almost assuredly going to be decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% REVENGE ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Kings.

Two teams that have moved in opposite directions this season collide on Tuesday night, and in my opinion, this one is going to be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, so because of that, I'm grabbing all these points!

Sacramento is 19-23 overall, including only 6-28 on the road.

The Kings play with the added incentive of "revenge" as well today, following a 117-109 home loss as 14.5-point underdogs to the Hornets about two weeks ago.

The Kings, though, are arguably playing some of their best basketball of the season right now, having won three of their last five, including a 126-122 victory at home over Brooklyn last time out.

Malik Monk had 32 points in the latest win for the Kings, while Maxime Raynaud added 22.

Sacramento enters averaging 111 points per game, which ranks 28th, while allowing 121, which also ranks 28th.

Charlotte is 37-34 overall and 17-17 SU at home.

The Hornets enter off three straight wins and covers, most recently a 124-101 win over Memphis as 18.5-point favorites last time out.

But, with upcoming home games against New York, Philadelphia and Boston, three teams from the East that Charlotte is trying to get past, not only does this set up as a potential "letdown" spot after the latest winning surge and now facing the lowly Kings, while also setting up as a potential "look ahead" position with the high-profile set of upcoming home games on deck.

This one screams "TRAP" game to me.

Sacramento has been playing better, and it plays with a sense of revenge. 

The Hornets come in on top of the World after three straight victories, but they will get caught looking ahead to a much more difficult stretch of their schedule starting immediately after this "cream puff" against Sacramento.

I base picks on many different things, but I'm primarily a "situational" capper, and I definitely love the way this one sets up for the visiting side.

Again, I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything remotely like that, but I do think the back door will be left wide open for the visiting side to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch.

Some other interesting stats to support us show that the Kings have, in fact, covered the spread in five of their last eight games.

Sacramento has also scored at least 116 points in four of its last five games and it's 2-1 against the spread in its last three games as a double-digit underdog. 

The Hornets have also, interestingly, failed to cover the spread in each of their last 15 games vs. a Pacific Division opponent following a victory.

And finally, the Kings have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games vs. the Eastern Conference, following a win.

Sacramento isn't trying to purposely "tank," or it wouldn't be trying as hard as it has been of late. The Kings have already been eliminated from Playoff contention, but they continue to play and work hard.

I'm expecting a competitive battle in this one, so I'm grabbing the points with SACRAMENTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BLOOD-BATH on the Senators on the puckline.

This is a great "situational" play on the Senators on Monday night on the "puckline" option, to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion.

New York is coming off a 3-2 overtime home loss here yesterday to Winnipeg, and with another difficult road game North of the border at the Leafs on Wednesday, I think they're going to have their hands full with the opportunistic visiting side.

Ottawa won this game 8-4 here back in January, and I believe a similar blowout win is in the cards here for Ottawa this time around as well. The Senators dominated that game with 30 shots, compared to 22 for the Rangers.

Brady Tkachuk had a goal and three assists in the victory.

Ottawa is a highly respectable 18-13-4 straight-up on the road this year and 19-16 on the puckline.

New York, on the other hand, has been terrible in the Big Apple, going 9-17-7 straight-up and 11-22 with the puckline in New York.

Ottawa is sixth in the Atlantic, but it enters playing possibly its best hockey of the season, winning four of its last five, including two in a row. They most recently destroyed Toronto 5-2 as -310 favorites, and with a game at Detroit on Tuesday, this game against the Rangers clearly takes on added importance for the Senators.

As I said at the beginning, I love the way this one sets up to be another blowout victory for the Senators from a situational standpoint, for sure.

The Senators have the upper hand on both ends of the ice as far as their numbers are concerned as well, with Ottawa averaging 3.3 goals per game, ranked ninth, while allowing 3.1, which is ranked 20th.

New York is eighth in the Metropolitan and it's struggled with consistency on both ends of the ice this season. 

The Rangers only average 2.8 goals per game, which is ranked 26th, while allowing 3.2, ranked 23rd.

Ottawa's offense, though, is firing on all cylinders right now, as they went one-for-four on the power play, while posting 43 shots on net overall. 

Linus Ullmark is expected between the pipes for Ottawa, and he's 22-10-7 with a 2.77 goals against average. So far, Ullmark has two shutouts this season, and he could be in line for a third here, facing the fatigued Rangers.

The home side is scheduled to go with either Igor Shesterkin, or Jonathan Quick, as rookie goaltender Dylan Garand played in Sunday's loss to the Jets.

That marks four straight losses for New York, and as I say, with a difficult game against the Leafs to look forward to, I believe the home side comes out flat against the red-hot and focused Senators. 

Let's give this one the good old "eye test" guys.

New York enters off a difficult loss yesterday and it's lost four in a row.

The Senators come in rested and off two straight victories, and they won't want to leave anything to chance here, having to face the Red Wings in Detroit on Tuesday, who are 20-12-3 at home this season.

As being primarily a "situational" capper, this one "ticks all the boxes" so to speak, as far as this being a lop-sided victory for Ottawa.

Because of that, I'm laying the 1.5 goals and taking OTTAWA on the PUCKLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% BAIL-OUT on Gonzaga.

I look for the BULLDOGS depth, overall superior skill/numbers and experience to ultimately prove to be the difference-maker in this one.

Lay the points with GONZAGA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% NIT SUPER TOP-SHOCKER on UNC Wilmington.

While I think the outright win is the most likely outcome, let's grab the points.

The play is on UNC WILMINGTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% ATS BLOOD-BATH on Louisville.

While I believe the outright win is the most likely outcome for Louisville here in this second-round matchup on Saturday afternoon versus Michigan State, my official call is going to be to grab as many points as you can.

Louisville enters at 23-10. The Cardinals beat SMU 62-68 as 6.5-point favorite in their opening CC Tournament game, but then they lost 78-73 to Miami as 1.5-point favorites in their second game.

Louisville had a week off and then faced USF in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament as a 3.5-point favorite and they won 83-79. Now I expect them to carry that momentum over into this second-round matchup vs. the Spartans.

The Cardinals average 85.9 points per game, which is ranked 25th, while allowing 72.5, which is ranked 119th.

These teams last played in December, 2021, and the Spartans won 73-64 at home as four-point favorites.

Michigan State enters 25-7. The Spartans got upset in their first-round matchup of the Big Ten Tournament, falling 88-84 to UCLA as 5.5-point favorites.

Michigan State then bounced back with a 92-67 win over North Dakota State as 16.5-point favorites in the first round.

The Spartans enter averaging 78.7 points per game, which is ranked 131st, while allowing 67, which is ranked 26th.

The last time these teams played against each other in the NCAA Tournament was all the way back in 2015, and the Spartans beat the Cardinals in overtime to punch their ticket to the Final Four.

But Louisville is back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2017, and it's a first for Pat Kelsey as a head coach as well. 

Tom Izzo posted his 60th in the NCAA Tournament for Michigan State in the Spartans' victory over the Bison. 

Not to say that this will be a "cake walk" whatsoever, as Michigan State has one of the best guards in the nation in Jeremy Fears Jr. Fears averages 15.7 points per game on 44.5 percent shooting, and he's No. 1 in the nation in averaging 9.2 assists per game.

Fears, though, looked pretty ordinary in the first-round win, as he saw a streak of four consecutive games with 20-plus points come to an end, going only 2-for-6 from the floor. 

When we dig a little deeper into Izzo's team's defensive numbers, I think there's room for concern as well. 

The Spartans entered Thursday with the nation's 14th-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating according to KenPom, conceding 94.8 points per 100 possessions, but Michigan State's numbers of late have completely fallen off, as its adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.9 points allowed per 100 possessions since the start of February ranks a pedestrian 66th in the country.

And so, during that stretch, the Spartans' opponents have converted 38.3 percent of their 3-point attempts and overall, Michigan State is ranked 332nd in 3-point rate defense at 46.3 percent.

The Cardinals' offense looked great in the win over USF and I think they'll, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire as well.

Grab the points, the play is on LOUISVILLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% BOOKIEKILLER on Michigan.

Michigan came up short in the Big Ten Tournament against Purdue, falling 80-72. 

It beat Ohio State 71-67 as a 13.5-point favorite, then Wisconsin 68-65 as a 12.5-point favorite, before eventually losing to the Boilermakers as a 4.5-point favorite.

The Wolverines then opened up the NCAA Tournament with a solid 101-80 victory over Howard, but once again they were unable to cover the massive 30.5-point spread. 

While Michigan was 4-1 SU down the stretch of the regular season, it was just 1-4 ATS over the span, including going 0-2 ATS. So the Wolverines are an uncharacteristic 0-6 against the spread over their last six games.

I'll admit that the Law of Averages is flawed, but I still love the way this one sets up for the Wolverines to not only post another solid win, but also finally a solid cover as well.

Michigan enters as one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 88.5 PPG, which is ranked 11th, while allowing 69.1, ranked 45th. 

The Wolverines enter the second round at 31-3 on the year, while their No. 9-ranked opponent in Saint Louis is 28-5. 

The Billikens got by George Washington 88-81 as 7.5-point favorites in their opening A-10 Tournament game, but then they fell 70-69 to Dayton as 4.5-point favorites in their second game.

They were 1.5-point underdogs in the opening round to Georgia, and they'd go on to cruise to a 102-77 victory.

Saint Louis averages 87.8 points per game, which is ranked 15th, while allowing 69.2, which is ranked 48th. 

These teams' offensive and defensive numbers are almost identical, but that's pretty much where the similarities end.

Dusty May is a talented coach in my opinion, and I think he'll be able to draw up strong defensive schemes to slow down the Billikens' ball-screen and motion offense. 

Saint Louis, though, ranks in the 96th percentile in half-court offense and 97th percentile in man offense. 

The Billikens got by Georgia in the first round, but the Bulldogs defense ranks in the 58th and 53rd percentiles in those categories, respectively. 

So, to say this is a major "step up" in competition would be a huge understatement in my opinion. 

And that's because the Wolverines rate in the 96th percentile in half-court defense and man defense. 

Michigan is also superb in defending ball screens, ranked in the 91st percentile. And those are exactly all of the things you need to slow down this Saint Louis offense.

It's almost like the Wolverines defense is tailor-made to slow down teams like the Billikens, in my opinion.

Saint Louis has talented players like big man Robbie Avila, who has 12 points and five boards in 28 minutes in the win over the Bulldogs, but note that the Wolverines rank in the Top 50 in rebound rates on both ends of the court, while also posting the fourth-best 2-point defensive percentage as well, overall. 

Saint Louis earned the first round Tournament win, but the Billikens have been showing signs of slowing down before that, as they opened the year with a 24-1 record, only to close 4-4 down the stretch. 

The Wolverines, though, have arguably the best player in the country on their team in Yaxel Lendeborg, and an interior enforcer in Aday Mara. 

There is also a major size mismatch between these teams. Michigan's starting five dwarfs the Billikens' starting five.

I really like Saint Louis, but I think its offense finally hits a proverbial "brick wall" on Saturday versus Dusty May's elite Wolverine defense.

Lay the points, the play is on MICHIGAN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Raptors.

Toronto has been extremely competitive on the road this year, going 20-12 SU and 19-14 ATS.

The Nuggets are 19-13 SU and 16-16 ATS at home.

The Raptors enter off three straight wins/covers, and they play with the added incentive of "revenge" here, following a 106-103 home loss to the Nuggets on New Year's Eve.

Never is just 1-2 in its last three and off a listless 125-118 loss at Memphis.

I see this being decided in the final moments. A great situational play on TORONTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOURNEY BK on Hofstra.

Alabama is having to deal with some off-court issues coming into this contest, and because of that, I like the underdog to keep this one interesting.

The Hofstra Pride rolled through the CAA Conference Tournament, beating William and Mary by a score of 92-61 as 1.5-point favorites, Towson by a score of 68-65 in overtime as 3.5-point favorites, and then 75-69 over Monmouth in the Championship game as 4.5-point favorites.

The Pride have won seven straight, and they average 75.4 points per game, while conceding 66.2.

Alabama lost in the first round to Ole Miss by a score of 80-79 as an 11.5-point favorite of the SEC Tournament, and the Tide come into the Big Dance with more questions than answers in my opinion.

It was a big upset loss and a letdown for an Alabama side that closed out the regular season by winning nine of its final ten.

Alabama averages 91.8 points per game, which ranks fourth in the country, while allowing 83.5, which ranks 349th. 

But the Tide's second-leading creator, Aden Holloway, just got arrested and has been ruled out for this game, and I think this will have a major impact on Alabama here in the first round.

Labaron Philon Jr. is a fantastic player, but I can't see him carrying the team now without his sidekick to help him.

Hofstra has a talented backcourt that's not going to blink and will be looking to take full advantage of this situation.

The Pride's Cruz Davis averages 10 points per 100 possessions solely at the rim. 

And that's been a defensive weakness of the Tide's all season. 

This is no doubt an interesting matchup, though, as it features one of the biggest style clashes in the tournament, with Hofstra ranking 316th nationally in average tempo, and Alabama ranked as the fourth quickest.

Davis has an Over/Under line here of 19.5-points, so oddsmakers are expecting the dynamic Hofstra player to have a big game, and to me, that means that the Pride will be competitive throughout.

The Tide ranks just 67th in adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom as well, which is a big reason why they're just 13-18 against the spread 

The Pride, on the other hand, ranks 33rd in 3-point field goal percentage at 36.8 percent. 

And that's going to be an issue for sure for an Alabama defense that ranks 169th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage.

The Pride's 19th-best scoring defense has kept the team extremely competitive all year, as Hofstra is 21-11 against the spread this season. 

One player to keep your eyes on is Hofstra's Preston Edmead, who has connected on a team-high 90 3-pointers this year, knocking down 38.3 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc. 

The Tide are among the nation's highest scoring teams, but Edmead has also had multiple 3-pointers in five of his last six games, and he's attempted at least six 3-pointers in 19 of his last 23 games.

There's going to be some upsets during each stage of the Tournament, and I believe that Hofstra has the potential to be one of those teams.

But that said, I think the most solid wager is to grab the points with the undervalued underdog; that's the pick, the play is on HOFSTRA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BIG-DANCE CA$H-BOMB on Kennesaw State.

I believe 30-3 Gonzaga will easily win this first-round matchup vs. 21-13 Kennesaw State, but at the same time, I think the Owls will go on to easily cover with this ridiculously large spread.

The Bulldogs rolled through the WCC Tourney, coming out a bit flat in their first game against Oregon State, eventually pulling away for the 65-56 win as 19.5-point favorites in the Semis, before then hammering Santa Clara in the Championship game by a score of 79-68 as 7.5-point favorites. 

I'm expecting the Bulldogs to also come out a bit "flat" here as well to open the NCAA Tournament.

And for Kennesaw State, it'll be fired up for sure after posting its first ever Conference USA Tournament Title victory. The Owls went on to defeat Louisiana Tech by a score of 71-60, led by 18 points from Jaden Harris and 17 points from Amir Taylor. 

As far as their seasonal averages are concerned, Kennesaw State averaged 83.5 points per game, while allowing 76.3, while Gonzaga averaged 88.9, while allowing 68.5.

Kennesaw State is the No. 14 seed, and Gonzaga is a No. 3 seed.

This is the Owls' first trip back to the Big Dance since 2023, while this marks the 27th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance for the Bulldogs.

Gonzaga is rightfully a big favorite in this spot, as the Bulldogs rank as the sixth-oldest team in the country with 2.72 years of average D-1 experience, compared to Kennesaw State, which is ranked as the 234th-youngest team in the nation. 

But one impressive stat I saw shows that the Owls are 5-1 against the spread in their last six neutral-site games. This game is being played in Portland, so the crowd should be behind the 'Zags for the most part, but this is a powerful trend and stat that can't be ignored in my opinion. 

Gonzaga hasn't lost in the first round since 2008, but as I said at the start, I don't think the Bulldogs have anything to worry about as far as winning this game outright, but I do think they'll have their hands full trying to cover this massive spread. 

The Bulldogs are also extremely deep, as they enter the Tournament ranked fifth in the country in bench points, with close to 35 per contest. 

However, the Owls are going to be able to counter that in various ways in my opinion, especially in the intangibles department, as note that Kennesaw State averages 27 free throw attempts per game, which is second only to USF.

Kennesaw State can also rebound, especially on the offensive glass, where the Owls rank as one of the best in the nation. 

Yes, the Bulldogs are 30-0 this season when they hit 40 percent or better from the field, but they're 0-3 when they don't. 

The Owls are going to be able to play to their strengths here and catch Gonzaga off guard, in my opinion. 

Kennesaw State has the rebounding ability to keep this one competitive. Note that the Owls faced another really good team in Alabama earlier in the year, and they were competitive throughout, eventually falling by 11.

Gonzaga, as I've said now twice in this analysis, is going to go on to win this game in my opinion, but fail spectacularly to cover the larger spread.

Grab the points with KENNESAW STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% BOOKIEKILLER on the Orlando Magic.

I don't follow a single handicapping methodology. I base my picks on many different things. Sometimes I completely break down a game, looking at individual player matchups and digging up every stat possible. 

Other times, though, I employ the "KISS" method. Keep it simple, stupid!

The bottom line for me is that I believe being "flexible" with your approach is the best way to secure profits over the short, mid and long-term.

All of those things said, I'm primarily a "situational" capper with a heavy lean to everything contrarian.

This particular play sets up well for Orlando situationally, in my opinion.

I just released a pick on Charlotte, a 5% client play that cashed easily, as the Hornets went on to win 136-106 as 5.5-point favorites. 

Miami had won the other three games in their divisional series so far this season, leading up to that contest, so to say that the Hornets played with "revenge" was an understatement. That was also a really great "situational" play, I felt, with Charlotte looking to avenge the earlier losses.

The Magic enter this game looking to avenge an earlier loss as well to the Hornets, though, after they fell 124-97 at home as 4-point favorites back in January. That was during the Hornets' big winning run.

The old saying: that was then, and this is now, though, could not be more apt in my opinion!

The Hornets avoided a letdown after their successful road trip in the revenge spot vs. the Heat, but with upcoming home games vs. the lowly Grizzlies and Kings (followed by home games vs. the Knicks, 76ers and Celtics), I believe Charlotte could potentially be caught "looking ahead" in this one.

Orlando had won eight straight before dropping its last two, most recently a 113-108 home loss to Oklahoma City as ten-point dogs. 

But with a night off after this, before a big game vs. the Lakers, I'm expecting the Magic to risk life and limb here to avoid a third straight loss. 

Orlando is also 10-3 the last 13 in this series, despite losing the last matchup. The Magic are also 7-1 against the spread in their last eight road games. 

I think the Hornets peaked. They are, in fact, just 1-4 against the spread in their last five overall, and just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven home meetings vs. Orlando.

The Magic are just 16-16 on the road, but "home floor" has been anything BUT an advantage for the Hornets this year, as, despite their recent uptick in their performance, they're still only 15-17 straight-up at home this season. 

As far as the tale of the tape is concerned and their numbers, the Hornets average 115.8 points per game, while allowing 112.2, while the Magic average 115.5 points per game, while allowing 114.2. 

As I stated earlier, as being primarily a situational capper, I do love the way this one sets up for the visitors for all of the different reasons I just listed.

The play is on ORLANDO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% $IDE BLA$TER on SMU.

Miami Ohio was a great story this year, going 31-1 and only losing in the MAC Conference Title game. 

The RedHawks, though, were running out of steam at the end of the season, as they've now failed to cover in four straight.

SMU went 1-1 in the ACC Tourney, but covered in both games.

Look for SMU's depth and skill to prove to be too much for the smaller school.

Lay the points with SMU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% CA$H-BOMB on Davidson.

Davidson was decent on the road, going 7-4 SU/ATS, while Oklahoma State is 14-5 SU at home, but just 8-11 ATS.

Both teams lost in the second round of their respective conference tournaments, but I believe these teams are more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% BOOKIEKILLER on Howard.

Two very evenly matched sides, but UMBC relies too heavily on its shot from range.

Howard is the bigger, more experienced, and more well-rounded side, in my opinion. 

Grab the points with the BISON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% WINNER on Liberty.

Liberty was No. 1 in the Conference USA, but it got bumped by Missouri State 77-69 in the Conference Tournament as a 5.5-point favorite to blow their chances at a ticket to the Big Dance.

George Mason finished in fifth in the A-10, and it lost 63-57 to the Bonnies as 2.5-point favorites in its opening round Conference Tourney matchup.

These teams numbers are very similar and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is on LIBERTY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% REVENGE GOW on the Clippers.

The Clippers play with revenge here and I think that'll be more than enough to lead them to a solid cover on Monday night.

The play is on LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% REVENGE BK on the Lakers.

The Lakers play with revenge here, following a 120-113 loss at Denver two weeks ago.

The Nuggets have won two straight, but I think they get caught looking ahead to two nights off after this, followed by a home game vs. Philly.

LA has won four in a row, both SU and ATS, since that setback and I look for it to keep the good times rolling here at home in this revenge spot.

Grab the points with the LAKERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% WAC TOURNEY BK on Cal Baptist.

Utah Tech is 18-14, and it advanced by beating Abilene Christian by a score of 80-74 yesterday.

Cal Baptist finished 23-8, and it had a bye in the first round.

The Lancers, though, play with the added incentive of revenge here, following an inexplicable 70-65 loss to the Trail Blazers as 2.5-point favorites on the road back in February.

Lay the points with confidence on CAL BAPTIST.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BOOKIEKILLER on the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz are only 8-24 SU on the road, but a much more respectable 17-15 ATS as a visitor for bettors this season, and I think the revenge-minded visiting side will once again keep it competitive here in the Pacific Northwest on Friday night.

The Jazz play with the added incentive of revenge here, following a 135-119 loss at home to the Blazers in mid-February.

The Blazers are off a lacklustre 103-101 loss here to Charlotte and with a difficult upcoming five-game road swing following this contest, the home side could also potentially be caught "looking ahead."

No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points for a solid backdoor cover with the JAZZ.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% LIGUE 1 GOW on Marseille -1.25 (-105).

Marseille's home-field advantage, its overall depth and skill, combined with this very reasonable moneyline to win in regulation, make the home side worth the price of admission in this spot.

The play is on MARSEILLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BOOKIEKILLER on the Thunder.

Boston lost 125-116 at San Antonio last time out.

The C's have a night off before a favorable three-game home stand, so I think they're going to get caught "looking ahead."

The Thunder have won six straight and have had two nights off to prepare for this one.

I like OKC to win and cover; lay the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% WAC TOURNEY TOP on Texas Arlington.

Texas Arlington plays with the added incentive of "revenge" here, following a 78-73 home loss as an 8.5-point favorite to Southern Utah, back in February. 

Lay the points with confidence on TEXAS ARLINGTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% SWAC TOURNEY BK on Alabama A&M on the MONEYLINE.

Let's bypass the spread option and instead just take Alabama A&M to win this one outright on the very reasonable ML option.

The Bulldogs play with revenge, following an 89-74 loss at Texas Southern as 1.5-point favorites back in January.

Look for the Tigers to stumble and for ALABAMA A&M to avenge the earlier setback.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% CA$H-BOMB on George Washington.

Both teams enter the Conference Tournament at 17-14. 

The Revolutionaries play with the added incentive of "revenge" here, though, following a 79-65 loss at home to Fordham in late January.

Lay the points, expect a rout this time around from GEORGE WASHINGTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% PLATINUM BOOKIEKILLER on UC Santa Barbara.

UC Santa Barbara finished 18-13 this year, while UC Davis was 18-13 as well. 

The Gauchos, though, play with revenge here following an inexplicable 85-75 loss at UC Davis as 3.5-point favorites back in early February.

Look for UC SANTA BARBARA to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover in the rematch; lay the points with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% REVENGE BLOOD-BATH on the Nuggets.

Houston won 113-99 at home over Toronto just last night, so fatigue is a major issue here in the second game of the back-to-back.

Denver plays with revenge following a 115-101 loss here back in December to the Rockets.

Lay the points, the play is on DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% ULTRA-EARLY SEC TOURNEY BOB on LSU.

Kentucky finished 19-12, while LSU was 15-16. 

The Wildcats went 0-2 SU/ATS over their final two games, while LSU was 0-3 SU/ATS over its final three.

These teams' numbers are similar, though, and the neutral court "evens the playing field," so to speak, in my opinion. 

LSU lost 75-74 at home to Kentucky as a 3.5-point dog, and I expect another competitive battle to once again be decided in the final moments.

While the rest of the world goes one way with this pick, I'm going the other.

The play is on LSU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BIG 12 TOURNEY BOOKIEKILLER on Kansas State.

K-State finished 12-19, while BYU is 21-10.

KSU is 1-10 SU and 5-6 ATS on the road, while BYU is 21-10, including 12-3 at home.

The Wildcats play with revenge here, following an 83-73 home loss to the Cougars in early January.

They were 7.5-point dogs in that one and came up just short, and now they're getting double-digits here on the road.

The Cougars went 1-3 SU/ATS over their last four, but they did salvage their finale in an 82-76 victory over Texas Tech. 

I see this one being a lot closer this time around; grab the points with KANSAS STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% ACC TOURNEY ATS SUPER-BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh.

The Panthers closed the regular-season by going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, including a 71-69 OT victory at Syracuse as a 6.5-point dog in their finale.

I expect them to carry over that momentum here in this revenge scenario, as they lost 75-67 at Stanford in late February as 7.5-point dogs.

The Cardinal finished 4-0 SU/ATS to close out the regular season, including back-to-back road wins at Notre Dame and NC State.

With this being a neutral site affair, the proverbial "playing field" is more even this time around, in my opinion.

Their last matchup came down to the final two minutes, and I expect this one to be even tighter; grab the points, the play is on PITTSBURGH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% NON-CONFERENCE PUCKLINE PUNI$HER on the Vancouver Canucks.

Vancouver is desperate to snap an eight-game slide after coming up just short in its most recent 3-2 OT loss at Winnipeg.

The Canucks play with the added incentive of revenge as well, following a 2-1 loss at Ottawa in January. 

The Sens return home after this for a game vs. rival Montreal, and could potentially be caught "looking ahead" as well.

Great value here on the hungry home side on the puckline option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% NON-CONFERENCE BK on the Suns.

The Hornets' six-game win streak came to a crashing halt last time out in a setback at home to division-rival Miami, and now I think they suffer another letdown here in this non-conference game vs. the hungry home side. 

The Suns have won three of their last four, and they embark on a difficult six-game road trip after this, which clearly puts added emphasis on this contest.

Charlotte has been super hot, and it's caught the attention of the rest of the league. I think the Suns come out focused and deliver a big win and cover on Sunday night.

The play is on PHOENIX.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NORTHEAST TOURNEY TOP on Stonehill.

Conference Tournament time, second round. Stonehill finished 12-20 overall, while Mercyhurst was 16-16.

The Lakers won 75-72 in OT at Stonehill in February, so the Skyhawks play with the added incentive of revenge as well, following the straight-up and against-the-spread setback.

I'm grabbing the points with STONEHILL.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% SUMMIT LEAGUE TOURNEY BOOKIEKILLER on North Dakota.

North Dakota plays with the added incentive of revenge here, following an inexplicable 98-79 setback at home to Denver as a 3.5-point favorite in early February.

These teams numbers are nearly identical. While I believe an outright win is the most likely outcome for North Dakota, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on NORTH DAKOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% A-SUN TOP TOURNEY play on FGCU.

I like the Eagles to keep this one competitive. They play with revenge, following an 86-71 loss at Lipscomb in January.

In a contest that I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is on FGCU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOP WINNER on the Nuggets.

Denver plays with the added incentive of "revenge" here, following a 115-107 loss to the Lakers in January, and note that the Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

Lay the points, the play is on DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% PATRIOT LEAGUE TOURNEY BOOKIEKILLER on American U.

American is just 5-9 SU on the road, but a much more competitive 8-6 ATS. Boston is 9-5 SU and 7-6 ATS at home.

The Eagles play with the added incentive of revenge here following a 68-65 home loss to the Terriers last month.

The play is on AMERICAN U.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNEY TOP on Drake.

Drake is only 4-7 on the road, while Southern Illinois is 8-6 at home.

The Bulldogs, though, play with the added incentive of "revenge" following a 66-61 home loss to SIU as 1.5-point dogs last month.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on DRAKE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% BIG EAST BEA$T on Villanova.

Villanova beat DePaul 71-66 at home on New Year's Eve, and while it wasn't able to cover the 12.5-point spread then, I think it'll now get the job done here on the road with a much more manageable number to cover.

The Wildcats have lost two of their last three, so they come in focused on the task at hand.

The play is on VILLANOVA.

Good luck, NP