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This is a 4% TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Thunder/Spurs.

A big Game 3.

The first two games both went OVER the number, and both teams enter having played to several higher-scoring outcomes, but I look for the shift in venue, fatigue, and the enormity of the moment to all combine to finally produce a lower-scoring defensive battle.

In what I believe is a fantastic situational play, I'm taking the UNDER in Game 3.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Spurs/Thunder.

I had the Spurs in Game 1 and while that contest flew "over" the number, I'm expecting Game 2 to be an all out war from start to finish.

If Wemby didn't hit that miracle 3 ball, Game 1 would have gone well under the number, but that wasn't the case, as he hit that historic shot which sent it to double OT, before the Spurs finally prevailed as big underdogs.

OKC is the No. 2-ranked defense in the league and I think the home side doubles down on the defensive end.

The first game went well over the number, but the Game 2 situation points to a much more defensive battle; the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER 76ers/Knicks.

Game 1 snuck OVER the number, but I'm expecting fatigue and desperation to play a role in the pace of Game 2 and I expect a much more defensive battle.

This number is high, the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% TOTAL BK on the UNDER Cavaliers/Pistons.

Both teams went to Game 7 in their opening round series and each Game 7 went OVER the number.

Look for each team to come out a bit flat-footed after the exhausting first round and to put their focus and effort in Game 1 on the defensive end.

A great situational play on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% GAME 7 BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER 76ers/Celtics.

Game 7 in the Playoffs, whether it's the NHL or the NBA is one of the best things ever adn we have a great matchup in Boston on Saturday night.

Philadelphia is roughly a +7.5 point underdog in Boston and the total is set right around 206. This has been a very competitive series, and a very defensive one, but stick around to find out why I think this Game 7 total is WAY too low, and why I expect it to instead be a "shootout."

You can find me all over the leaderboards. If you look back over the last 20 years, you'll also find me all over the leaderboards. In fact, I'm the No. 1 all sports capper for ALL of 2026 right now throughout the network. 

Five of the six games, including the last two have all fallen UNDER the number, but now we have the lowest total (by FAR!), so far in this series and I believe it's now WAY too low. 

Game's 4 and 6 held the previous low for the Over/Under at 213.5, and now here we are roughly 6.5-points lower than that.

As I say, I believe it's now too low.

If Game 7 were being played in Philly, I'd likely be leaning to another lower-scoring defensive battle, but I definitely think the conditions are now correct for an efficient offensive game. 

In fact, this can still be an overall hard-fought defensive battle and go well over this really low number.

The tale of the tape as far as their numbers are concerned finds Philadelphia 44-37 overall, including 22-19 on the road.

Boston finished 55-26, including 30-11 at home.

On most nights the Celtics "get the job done" with their aggressive defensive play, as Boston is ranked No. 1 overall in the league on the defensive end in conceding only 108.5 PPG. 

But after being held to under 100 points in back-to-back games, I'm absolutely expecting a shift in the game-plan for Game 7, and instead look for Boston to get out and push the pace like it did in its 123-91 Game 1 victory.

The 76ers have looked better offensively over the last two games, combining for 119 points, and I look for that progression to continue here in Game 7.

Philadelphia has been playing well "over its head" on the defensive end in this series, as the 76ers finished a sub-par 19th defensively this season in allowing 117.5 points per game.

Boston star Jason Tatum sat out the majority of the fourth quarter in Thursday's Game 6 loss, but ESPN's Shams Charania says signs are positive that Tatum will play in Game 7.

So far through Six playoff games Tatum has averaged 22.3 points while playing 36 minutes per game. Tatum and Brown also shoot just over 42 percent from three-point range at TD Garden.

Also note, as a whole Boston ranks top-three in home offensive rating and the team collectively shoots 39 percent from 3-point range at home.

Philly's big three have been huge over the last two victories, though, as  Embiid, Maxey, and George have combined for 75+ points in each of Philly’s last two wins

So far this series has averaged 210.5 points per game, and five of the six games have eclipsed 206 points. 

Finally guys, purely from a strategic and situational stand-point, note that Game 7's have historically produced 8 to 10 more possessions than the other six playoff games, due to fouling and extended possessions, mostly out of desperation when teams are facing elimination.

I believe both of these defenses are now fatigued and I look for a faster overall pace to lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for each of these hungry and talented teams.

This number is low, the play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% DYNAMIC TOTAL on the OVER Pistons/Magic.

Ultimately I expect a faster pace to lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for each of these talented offenses in this important Game 4 in Orlando on Monday night.

This number is low, the play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% ELITE 8 TOP TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Purdue/Arizona.

I'm expecting a competitive battle to produce a much lower-scoring final combined out than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Look for these underrated defenses to take "center stage" to speak.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Iowa/Nebraska.

I'm expecting a faster pace and overall tempo of this contest, combined with efficient overall offensive performances, will give these underrated offenses plenty of scoring chances.

This number is low, the play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% BOOKIEKILLER on Texas.

The Boilermakers are in for a fight from the undervalued Longhorns in my opinion.

In a contest that I envision coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points with TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% TOTAL CA$H-BOMB on the OVER Seattle/Auburn.

I'm expecting a competitive battle and a faster pace to lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for these two teams.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% BOOKIEKILLER on Michigan.

Michigan came up short in the Big Ten Tournament against Purdue, falling 80-72. 

It beat Ohio State 71-67 as a 13.5-point favorite, then Wisconsin 68-65 as a 12.5-point favorite, before eventually losing to the Boilermakers as a 4.5-point favorite.

The Wolverines then opened up the NCAA Tournament with a solid 101-80 victory over Howard, but once again they were unable to cover the massive 30.5-point spread. 

While Michigan was 4-1 SU down the stretch of the regular season, it was just 1-4 ATS over the span, including going 0-2 ATS. So the Wolverines are an uncharacteristic 0-6 against the spread over their last six games.

I'll admit that the Law of Averages is flawed, but I still love the way this one sets up for the Wolverines to not only post another solid win, but also finally a solid cover as well.

Michigan enters as one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 88.5 PPG, which is ranked 11th, while allowing 69.1, ranked 45th. 

The Wolverines enter the second round at 31-3 on the year, while their No. 9-ranked opponent in Saint Louis is 28-5. 

The Billikens got by George Washington 88-81 as 7.5-point favorites in their opening A-10 Tournament game, but then they fell 70-69 to Dayton as 4.5-point favorites in their second game.

They were 1.5-point underdogs in the opening round to Georgia, and they'd go on to cruise to a 102-77 victory.

Saint Louis averages 87.8 points per game, which is ranked 15th, while allowing 69.2, which is ranked 48th. 

These teams' offensive and defensive numbers are almost identical, but that's pretty much where the similarities end.

Dusty May is a talented coach in my opinion, and I think he'll be able to draw up strong defensive schemes to slow down the Billikens' ball-screen and motion offense. 

Saint Louis, though, ranks in the 96th percentile in half-court offense and 97th percentile in man offense. 

The Billikens got by Georgia in the first round, but the Bulldogs defense ranks in the 58th and 53rd percentiles in those categories, respectively. 

So, to say this is a major "step up" in competition would be a huge understatement in my opinion. 

And that's because the Wolverines rate in the 96th percentile in half-court defense and man defense. 

Michigan is also superb in defending ball screens, ranked in the 91st percentile. And those are exactly all of the things you need to slow down this Saint Louis offense.

It's almost like the Wolverines defense is tailor-made to slow down teams like the Billikens, in my opinion.

Saint Louis has talented players like big man Robbie Avila, who has 12 points and five boards in 28 minutes in the win over the Bulldogs, but note that the Wolverines rank in the Top 50 in rebound rates on both ends of the court, while also posting the fourth-best 2-point defensive percentage as well, overall. 

Saint Louis earned the first round Tournament win, but the Billikens have been showing signs of slowing down before that, as they opened the year with a 24-1 record, only to close 4-4 down the stretch. 

The Wolverines, though, have arguably the best player in the country on their team in Yaxel Lendeborg, and an interior enforcer in Aday Mara. 

There is also a major size mismatch between these teams. Michigan's starting five dwarfs the Billikens' starting five.

I really like Saint Louis, but I think its offense finally hits a proverbial "brick wall" on Saturday versus Dusty May's elite Wolverine defense.

Lay the points, the play is on MICHIGAN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% FIRST ROUND TOP TOTAL on the OVER Akron/Texas Tech.

While both of these teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, I anticipate that a wide-open battle here in the NCAA Tournament's first round will help in driving this total well OVER the posted number before the final buzzer sounds.

Akron finished 29-5, and it went on to win the MAC Title for a third straight year, beating Buffalo 73-70, Kent 75-68, and Toledo by a score of 79-76. 

All three of those Conference Tournament games went UNDER the number. The Zips also saw the total go UNDER in their final three regular-season contests as well.

The Zips rely on a relentless offensive attack to get the job done most nights, as they allow 73.5 PPG, ranked 152nd, while averaging 88.4, which is ranked 13th.

Shammah Scott hit a game-winning three-pointer with 6.4 seconds left on the clock to propel Akron to its third straight league title. The Zips became the first team in league history to capture three straight championships.

Senior Tavari Johnson was named the tournament's Most Valuable Player after posting a 15-point and five-assist performance in the title victory.

Akron went on to shoot 47 percent from the floor, and I think it'll carry that momentum over into this one. 

On the other side of the floor is 22-10 Texas Tech. 

The Red Raiders have had over a week off since their quick exit in the Big 12 Tournament, falling 75-53 to Iowa State as 6.5-point dogs in their opening contest.

The Raiders stumbled down the stretch of the regular season as well, going 0-2 SU/ATS, and note that all three games during their current slide have fallen UNDER the number.

As I said at the start, both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring contests coming into their First Round NCAA Tourney matchup on Friday afternoon.

Texas Tech plays a similar style and overall offensive pace as its counterpart as well, averaging 80.4 points per game, while allowing 72.7. 

This number has dropped a bit since opening, with Texas Tech needing to adjust its expectations after losing star JT Toppin to a season-ending ACL last month, but the Red Raiders still enter loaded with talent.

Grant McCasland's team narrowly missed out on a Final Four berth last season and will be led by Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell. 

Akron likes to push the pace as well, though, ranked third in the country in shot attempts and it has shot better than 50 percent from the floor overall. 

Texas Tech is great at defending the three-ball, but the Zips don't rely on it whatsoever, as they've shot better than 60 percent with their two-point shots this season. 

The Zips need to push the pace because defense is their weakness. John Groce's team ranks outside the top-100 in defensive efficiency, and teams are shooting almost 35 percent from 3-point range against Akron. 

The Zips also don't block many shots.

Texas Tech doesn't play at a fast rate, but I'm expecting them to take a lot of three-point shots.

And with Akron needing to push the pace throughout, I say the conditions are definitely correct for a high-scoring shootout.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% DE$TROYER on Ohio State on the moneyline.

While I think Ohio State will also go on to cover the spread in this one, my official call will be to just take the Buckeyes on the reasonable moneyline option instead.

Ohio State enters as the No. 8 seed, and TCU is the No. 9. This game is being played from the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina, and tip-off is set for 12:15 Eastern.

"Momentum" is the key to success (among many other things, of course) at this time of year. 

The Buckeyes enter 21-12 overall, including going on to win four of their last five games, while also going 5-0 against the spread over that span. 

Ohio State got by Iowa 72-69 in the Big Ten Tournament as a 1.5-point dog, before then falling to Michigan by a score of 71-62 as a 13.5-point underdog in its second game.

The Buckeyes enter averaging 80.5 points per game, while allowing 73. 

TCU, on the other hand, finished 22-11 overall this year. 

The Horned Frogs also lost in the second round of the Big 12 Tourney, beating Oklahoma State 95-88 as 6.5-point favorites, before then losing 78-73 to Kansas as 4.5-point underdogs.

TCU averages 78 points per game, while allowing 71.4.

The Buckeyes are playing at an extremely high-level right now, though, and they have the best player on the floor in this contest, in my estimation anyway, in Bruce Thornton. 

But note that based on offensive efficiency metrics, Ohio State has posted four of its six best offensive games of the season since the calendar flipped over to March Madness. During that stretch the Buckeyes beat Purdue by a score of 82-74, and they also managed to post 90-points against both Penn State and Indiana.

Another reason I really like Ohio State here is their ability to both shoot and defend the three-point ball. The Buckeyes are ranked 58th in the nation in three-point shooting, while also being 50th in 3-point defense. 

I also mentioned Thornton. The senior guard has hit his stride over the last two weeks, as he's averaging 21.8 points per game and 4.6 assists so far this month. 

That's significant, as TCU ranks 347th in the nation in defensive assist rate this year. 

The Buckeyes also haven't been to the dance in four years. 

TCU is No. 22 in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 97.8 points per 100 possessions, but Ohio State's adjusted offensive efficiency sees it averaging 124.3 points per 100 possessions. 

The Horned Frogs simply don't have the firepower to keep up in my opinion, as note that they ranked 233rd Nationally in shots taken from behind the arc.

TCU is also undersized, with Xavier Edmonds the tallest on the team at 6-foot-8, and David Punch at 6-foot-7.

Ohio State, on the other hand, starts three players 6-foot-6 or taller.

Despite not making it to the Big Dance in four years, Ohio State still has the more experienced roster as well in this matchup (2.16 years per player, compared to 1.78 for the Horned Frogs).

I foresee OHIO STATE covering this game as well, but my strongest pick is to just lay the price and take the BUCKEYES on the MONEYLINE option to win this game outright.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% TOTAL BK on the OVER Prairie View A&M and Lehigh.

These teams are at the bottom of the field, but I'm expecting them to put on a show. Whoever wins will go on to play Florida in the First Round.

Each pulled off significant upsets en route to winning their respective Conference Tournaments and an automatic berth into the Big Dance. 

The Lehigh Mountain Hawks finished 18-16 overall and second in a competitive Patriot League. They beat Holy Cross 69-66 in the first round of the Conference Tournament, unable to cover the 5.5-point spread.

They then beat Colgate 76-69 as 2.5-point underdogs, before then beating Boston U in the Tourney Title Game by a score of 74-60 as 2.5-point dogs.

All three games went UNDER the number.

Overall, the Mountain Hawks average 73.3 PPG, while allowing 74.9. 

During the regular season, though, the O/U was 19-11 for Lehigh.

Over on the Prairie View A&M side, it would finish 18-17 in the difficult SWAC. 

The Panthers road to the Tourney title was even more difficult: they beat Alcorn State 65-56 as 6.5-point favorites in the first round, but they were then an underdog in the next three games, winning 71-67 over Bethune-Cookman, 74-55 over Alabama A&M and then 72-66 over Southern in the title game as 3.5-point underdogs.

All FOUR of their games would go UNDER the number during the title run as well.

The Panthers like to push the pace, as they average 78.9 points per game, while allowing 76.1. 

Note, though, that their final three games of the regular season, all straight-up wins and covers, also all went UNDER the posted number.

Each team is red-hot and has had significant time off to game-plan. These kids were tired during the Conference Tournaments, but they're going to have a ton of energy coming into this big opportunity. The Mountain Hawks come in on a six-game win streak, while the Panthers enter on a seven-game winning run.

I came across two interesting stats, one for each team, that each point to improved offensive efficiency this season, as Lehigh is actually 71st in the country in three-point percentage at 36 percent from range, while the Panthers are ninth in the country in hitting their free throws, averaging 19.5 per game. 

These aren't insignificant stats when you're considering playing the OVER, and I think they'll prove critical down the stretch of this one.

The Panthers are also great at generating fast-break points, producing a ton of steals that turn into quick and easy scores. 

Lehigh doesn't shoot a ton of threes, but that's by design. 

The Mountain Hawks, though, rely on their relentless attack, constantly drawing fouls at the rim, and they do have the ability to also score in bunches from range as well.

The Panthers are going to be looking to draw the Mountain Hawks out of their comfort zone with a relentless and speedy attack. 

There's not a lot of depth from either side, so the fact that these starters have had the extra time off is also a big reason why I love the OVER in this one.

Combined with the two stats I listed above, and the fact that everyone and their grandma is expecting another low-scoring game, we're going full-on contrarian with this pick.

I believe all of the situational factors I listed point to this game being a lot higher-scoring than what this Over/Under line is suggesting.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Texas/NC State.

NC State lost this game 102-97 at Texas in November. 

While that total blew well past the posted number, I'm expecting a much more defensive battle now here in the Big Dance.

Note that the Wolfpack have seen the total go UNDER in six of their last eight in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. 

The Longhorns looked bad in their 76-66 loss to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament, and I expect another inefficient performance here vs. the revenge-minded Wolfpack.

A great situational play on the UNDER in my opinion.  

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% CA$H-BOMB on Davidson.

Davidson was decent on the road, going 7-4 SU/ATS, while Oklahoma State is 14-5 SU at home, but just 8-11 ATS.

Both teams lost in the second round of their respective conference tournaments, but I believe these teams are more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% SOUTHEAST DIVISION TOP on the Hornets on the moneyline (-170 is max for 5%. Anything higher and drops to a normal 1% pick).

The Hornets play with revenge, following a 128-120 loss here to Miami at the start of the month.

The Heat are going to get caught looking ahead to their big home game vs. the Lakers on Thursday night in my opinion.

Look for the revenge-minded home side to win and cover comfortably; the play is on CHARLOTTE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% BOOKIEKILLER on Howard.

Two very evenly matched sides, but UMBC relies too heavily on its shot from range.

Howard is the bigger, more experienced, and more well-rounded side, in my opinion. 

Grab the points with the BISON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% REVENGE GOW on the Clippers.

The Clippers play with revenge here and I think that'll be more than enough to lead them to a solid cover on Monday night.

The play is on LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% REVENGE BK on the Lakers.

The Lakers play with revenge here, following a 120-113 loss at Denver two weeks ago.

The Nuggets have won two straight, but I think they get caught looking ahead to two nights off after this, followed by a home game vs. Philly.

LA has won four in a row, both SU and ATS, since that setback and I look for it to keep the good times rolling here at home in this revenge spot.

Grab the points with the LAKERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% WAC TOURNEY TOP on Texas Arlington.

Texas Arlington plays with the added incentive of "revenge" here, following a 78-73 home loss as an 8.5-point favorite to Southern Utah, back in February. 

Lay the points with confidence on TEXAS ARLINGTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% SWAC TOURNEY BK on Alabama A&M on the MONEYLINE.

Let's bypass the spread option and instead just take Alabama A&M to win this one outright on the very reasonable ML option.

The Bulldogs play with revenge, following an 89-74 loss at Texas Southern as 1.5-point favorites back in January.

Look for the Tigers to stumble and for ALABAMA A&M to avenge the earlier setback.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% PLATINUM BOOKIEKILLER on UC Santa Barbara.

UC Santa Barbara finished 18-13 this year, while UC Davis was 18-13 as well. 

The Gauchos, though, play with revenge here following an inexplicable 85-75 loss at UC Davis as 3.5-point favorites back in early February.

Look for UC SANTA BARBARA to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover in the rematch; lay the points with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% ULTRA-EARLY SEC TOURNEY BOB on LSU.

Kentucky finished 19-12, while LSU was 15-16. 

The Wildcats went 0-2 SU/ATS over their final two games, while LSU was 0-3 SU/ATS over its final three.

These teams' numbers are similar, though, and the neutral court "evens the playing field," so to speak, in my opinion. 

LSU lost 75-74 at home to Kentucky as a 3.5-point dog, and I expect another competitive battle to once again be decided in the final moments.

While the rest of the world goes one way with this pick, I'm going the other.

The play is on LSU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% A-10 TOURENY TOTAL MONEY-BOMB on the UNDER Bonnies/Explorers.

St. Bonaventure finished 15-16, and La Salle was 9-22.

Expect a highly contested and competitive battle to be a low-scoring defensive battle.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% ACC TOURNEY ATS SUPER-BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh.

The Panthers closed the regular-season by going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, including a 71-69 OT victory at Syracuse as a 6.5-point dog in their finale.

I expect them to carry over that momentum here in this revenge scenario, as they lost 75-67 at Stanford in late February as 7.5-point dogs.

The Cardinal finished 4-0 SU/ATS to close out the regular season, including back-to-back road wins at Notre Dame and NC State.

With this being a neutral site affair, the proverbial "playing field" is more even this time around, in my opinion.

Their last matchup came down to the final two minutes, and I expect this one to be even tighter; grab the points, the play is on PITTSBURGH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% BIG SKY TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Northern Colorado/Montana.

These teams played to a lower-scoring affair in the regular season. Still, I anticipate that a faster pace in this competitive Conference Tournament matchup will create plenty of scoring opportunities for these hungry opponents.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% SOUTHLAND TOURNEY TOP TOTAL on the OVER Northwestern State/Nicholls State.

Northwestern State is 10-21 overall, while Nicholls State is 13-18. 

The Demons lost this game 61-58 at home to the Colonels in early February, and while that game stayed well below the posted number, I believe a faster pace and another competitive affair will provide plenty of scoring opportunities for each of these hungry sides.

I'm on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% MAAC TOURNEY TOP TOTAL on the OVER Mount St. Mary's/Siena.

Mount St. Mary's was 15-16 this year, while Sienna was 20-11. 

The Mountaineers play with the added incentive of revenge here, following a 67-50 loss to the Saints at home in January.

While that game failed to produce a lot of offense, I expect the rematch here in the Conference Tournament to have a much faster pace, and for that to lead to plenty of points hitting the board this time around.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NORTHEAST TOURNEY TOP on Stonehill.

Conference Tournament time, second round. Stonehill finished 12-20 overall, while Mercyhurst was 16-16.

The Lakers won 75-72 in OT at Stonehill in February, so the Skyhawks play with the added incentive of revenge as well, following the straight-up and against-the-spread setback.

I'm grabbing the points with STONEHILL.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% SUMMIT LEAGUE TOURNEY BOOKIEKILLER on North Dakota.

North Dakota plays with the added incentive of revenge here, following an inexplicable 98-79 setback at home to Denver as a 3.5-point favorite in early February.

These teams numbers are nearly identical. While I believe an outright win is the most likely outcome for North Dakota, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on NORTH DAKOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% A-SUN TOP TOURNEY play on FGCU.

I like the Eagles to keep this one competitive. They play with revenge, following an 86-71 loss at Lipscomb in January.

In a contest that I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is on FGCU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% PATRIOT LEAGUE TOURNEY BOOKIEKILLER on American U.

American is just 5-9 SU on the road, but a much more competitive 8-6 ATS. Boston is 9-5 SU and 7-6 ATS at home.

The Eagles play with the added incentive of revenge here following a 68-65 home loss to the Terriers last month.

The play is on AMERICAN U.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNEY TOP on Drake.

Drake is only 4-7 on the road, while Southern Illinois is 8-6 at home.

The Bulldogs, though, play with the added incentive of "revenge" following a 66-61 home loss to SIU as 1.5-point dogs last month.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on DRAKE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% ACC TOTAL SOS on the UNDER Stanford/Notre Dame.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much more defensive battle here, finally in Notre Dame on Wednesday night.

Stanford is 18-11 overall, but only 3-5 on the road, while Notre Dame is just 13-16 overall, but a more respectable 10-6 at home.

Notre Dame won 47-40 at Stanford in December as a 7.5-point underdog, and I'm expecting another very competitive and lower-scoring defensive battle in the rematch as well.

This number is high, in my opinion, the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck,  NP

This is a 3% BIG EAST BEA$T on Villanova.

Villanova beat DePaul 71-66 at home on New Year's Eve, and while it wasn't able to cover the 12.5-point spread then, I think it'll now get the job done here on the road with a much more manageable number to cover.

The Wildcats have lost two of their last three, so they come in focused on the task at hand.

The play is on VILLANOVA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% SEC TOTAL BOB on the UNDER Vanderbilt/Ole Miss.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much tighter and lower-scoring defensive battle finally here from Ole Miss on Tuesday night.

Vanderbilt is 22-7 overall, including 6-4 on the road, while Ole Miss is just 12-17 overall, including 7-7 at home. 

Ole Miss pays with the added incentive of "revenge" here, following a 71-68 loss at Vanderbilt in January, and I'm expecting an even tighter and lower-scoring final combined outcome this time around; this number is high in my opinion, so the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% BIG 12 MONEY-BOMB on K-State.

West Virginia is 17-12 overall, but only 3-5 on the road.

K-State is just 11-18 overall, but a much more respectable 9-8 at home.

The Wildcats play with the added incentive of "revenge" here, following a 59-54 loss at the Mountaineers in January.

Look for "home cooking" to be the difference-maker for KANSAS STATE in this matchup.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% TOP SHOCKER on NC State.

NC State lost this game 74-64 at Duke last year as a 22-point dog, and I believe it'll be even more competitive at home this time this season. The Wolfpack are 11-4 at home.

Duke is 9-1 on the road, but I think it'll get caught looking ahead to its regular-season finale at UNC in the rematch next weekend.

No outright, but much tighter than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

Grab the points, the play is on NC STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% ACC TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Virginia Tech/UNC.

The Hokies are, interestingly, just 3-5 SU on the road, but they're 8-0 ATS.

They're sizeable dogs here on the road, but I expect a competitive battle to be a high-scoring shootout.

The Tar Heels are 16-0 SU and 14-2 ATS at home and I believe they'll carry their two-game winning momentum and confidence over into this one as well.

An important end of season ACC matchup at UNC is going to result in an extremely high-scoring final combined outcome once it's all said and done in my opinion; the play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% MAC TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Miami Ohio/WMU UNDER.

Miami Ohio already defeated WMU by a score of 87-76 back in early January.

I expect another competitive battle this time around as well, but much more defensive overall.

This number is high, expect the rematch to go UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% BK on the WOLVES.

Minnesota plays with revenge following an inexplicable 115-96 setback at home to the Clippers earlier this month.

Minnesota has won four of its last five and off a 124-121 road win at Portland, I like the visitors to keep the momentum rolling here.

The Clippers are off back-to-back losses and I think are primed for another letdown here.

Lay the points, the play is on MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 3% U OF THE U on SDSU.

Utah State stumbled 80-77 at Nevada last time out in a revenge spot for the Wolfpack, and now the Aztecs will look to do the same thing after they lost  71-66 at Utah State in late January.

Look for the Aggies to have another letdown here and for SAN DIEGO STATE to risk life and limb to avoid a third straight loss, while also avenging the earlier setback to Utah State.

Let's bypass the spread and instead just play SAN DIEGO STATE on the MONEYLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% SEC TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Florida/Texas.

Florida is 21-6 overall, including 6-2 on the road, while Texas is 17-10 overall, including 12-3 at home.

The Gators are on a seven-game win streak. They won this game 84-60 at home last year, and I'm expecting an even lower-scoring defensive battle this time around.

The Longhorns look to get back on track here following a 91-80 loss at Georgia, which snapped a five-game win streak.

Look for a competitive battle to be a very defensive one; the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Spurs/Pistons.

Both teams have been great for bettors of late, as the Spurs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last ten and Detroit is 7-3 ATS in its last ten.

Detroit has another tough game here vs. the Thunder and Cavs up after this and from a situational stand point, I expect them to double-down defensively here vs. the Spurs.

San Antonio is off a high-scoring 139-122 win at home over the Kings, but everything points to a much tighter defensive performance here in the opener of this difficult Eastern road swing, with games still to go at Toronto, Brooklyn, New York and Philadelphia.

The bottom line for me is that I feel its sets up well situationally to be a very low-scoring defensive battle, rather than a shootout; the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an ACC TOW on the OVER Louisville/UNC.

Louisville averages 86.9 PPG, while UNC averages 80.7.

The bottom line for this one, and to be completely succinct with my analysis, I expect a faster pace to lead to a lot of scoring opportunities and I look for these high-powered offenses to set the tone.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% BLOCKBUSTER on Nevada.

Utah State is just 4-5 ATS on the road, while Nevada is 12-2 SU and 8-6 ATS at home.

The Aggies are going to get caught looking ahead to their game at SDSU after this.

Nevada plays with the added incentive of "revenge" here following a 71-62 setback at Utah State in January.

Grab the points, it's a great situational play on NEVADA. 

Good luck, NP

This is a REVENGE GOM on Santa Clara.

Take SANTA CLARA: Revenge Game of the Month.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Texas Tech/Arizona.

Take the OVER: BIG 12 Total of the Month.

Good luck, NP

This is an ACC GOM on Duke.

Take DUKE: ACC Game of the Month.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Michigan State/Wisconsin.

We have a big Big Ten matchup here from Wisconsin on Friday night and while both of these teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, I now expect a much more defensive battle this time around.

Michigan State is 20-4 straight up overall, and 13-11 against the spread. The Spartans are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road.

Wisconsin, on the other hand, is 17-7 overall, including 12-2 straight-up and 7-7 against-the-spread at home.

This is the first game of the year between the schools, but Wisconsin went on to defeat Michigan State 77-74 as a two-point underdog in the Tournament last season. 

The Badgers, I believe, come in fatigued after back-to-back overtime road contests, first falling 78-77 in OT at Indiana as 3.5-point dogs, before a huge 92-90 overtime win at Illinois as 9.5-point underdogs. 

Michigan State could potentially come in with "heavy legs" here as well on Friday after an 85-82 overtime win at home over Illinois as a 1.5-point favorite.

As being primarily a situational capper, "scheduling" is a key factor that I look at when making my selections, and with each side coming off exhausting overtime wins over Illinois, I'm definitely expecting much more of a defensive battle this time around.

This is also the third straight week that Michigan State is playing a marquee nationally televised game on either Friday or Saturday night.

The tale of the tape as far as their stats are concerned finds the Badgers averaging 83.3 points per game, while allowing 75.8, while the Spartans average 79.2 points per game, while allowing 65.7 (ranked 16th).

I had a hard time trying to figure out a side in this one, as it really does feel like a "toss-up" game. 

Wisconsin only has a 2-6 record in Quad 1 games this year, but those two victories have come over Michigan and Illinois, so this, clearly, won't be a "cake walk" for Michigan State.

Each side is loaded with explosive talent, but I believe Wisconsin's defense will be up to the task in slowing down the Spartans at home. Wisconsin ranks 15th in the conference in scoring defense and sits 13th in both opponent field goal percentage and opponent three-point percentage, but the Badgers most recent win over Illinois showcased balance and toughness and that they have the potential to beat any team in the nation.

Michigan State will look to defend the perimeter and control the glass and in what appears to be an extremely evenly matched contest, I believe all the signs point to this being a very low-scoring defensive one; the play is on the "under!"

Good luck, NP

This is a MAAC GOM on Sacred Heart.

A great spot bet for a few different situational reasons.

The outright win is the most likely outcome in my opinion, but let's grab the points.

The play is on SACRED HEART.

Good luck, NP

This is an EASTERN CONFERENCE REVENGE GOY on the 76ers.

If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I'm primarily a "situational" capper. 

For the most part, the players actually playing the game don't come into my equation when I'm figuring out what teams I like. Of course, if it's a player like SGA, Connor McDavid, or a top-level pitcher, that is when I really pay attention to the roster. For me, I'm looking at different criteria for the most part to make my picks.

I bet the start of the season differently than I do the bulk of the regular season, and I also handicap the end of the season and the playoffs in a slightly different, modified style.

But all of that said, for the most part, I'm a contrarian at heart, and a situational capper overall.

And so this game here between the Knicks and the 76ers falls right into my wheelhouse, and while I feel that the outright win is the most likely outcome for the home side, I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can.

Just so you know, I'm releasing this pick many hours before the Knicks play their game against the Pacers at home on Tuesday night. So, despite the outcome of that Tuesday night contest in New York, I love the way this one sets up for the revenge-minded home side.

I couldn't call this my Eastern Conference Revenge Game of the Year if there wasn't a "revenge" game to talk about, as Philadelphia did fall in the most recent matchup between the clubs here at home last month by a score of 112-109 as a 1-point underdog.

The Knicks haven't been terrible, but they also haven't been spectacular in the second game of the back-to-back scenario this season, going 4-4 straight up and against the spread in such instances. 

Another big situational factor to consider is that this is the final game for each side before the break. The Knicks play the Pacers at home on Tuesday, and I think they're going to just go through the motions here in the second game of the back-to-back as they get caught looking ahead as well.

The 76ers return home off a successful 3-2 road trip, but are looking to bounce back after falling 135-118 at Portland on Monday. 

The tale of the tape, as far as their stats are concerned, sees Philly averaging 116.7 points per game, which ranks 12th, while allowing 115.5, which ranks 15th, while the Knicks average 117.4 points per game, which is ranked ninth, while allowing 111.8, ranked sixth.

Joel Embiid had 38 points in a losing cause for the 76ers in last month's loss to the Knicks, while New York was led by 23 points from OG Anunoby. 

And so, I think these teams are evenly matched, but Philadelphia has the revenge factor, and the fact that New York will for sure be fatigued having to play the second game of the back-to-back.

Finally note, though, that New York is still just 12-13 SU on the road anyway this year, while Philadelphia is 15-13 SU in front of the home-town crowd.

I think this one means a lot more to PHILADELPHIA, and I believe it'll find a way to take advantage in the revenge spot at home on Wednesday night; grab the points.

Good luck, NP

This is an ACC TOM on the UNDER UNC Miami.

These ACC rivals have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but in my opinion, everything finally points to much more of a defensive battle here between the Tar Heels and the Hurricanes in Miami on Monday night.

North Carolina enters with a 19-4 SU record, while going 13-10 against the spread. The Tar Heels, though, are a much more modest 3-3 straight up on the road.

Miami is 18-5 straight up overall and 12-2 straight up at home. The Hurricanes, though, are only 6-8 against the spread in friendly confines.

I found it difficult to decide on a side in this one, but was immediately attracted to this total opportunity. 

As I said, each team has been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, with Miami having seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, most recently the Hurricanes are off the 74-68 road win at Boston College.

North Carolina had seen the total go "over" the number in eight straight, before it's most recent 71-68 home win over Duke as a 6.5-point underdog. 

The Tar Heels enter averaging 82.7 points per game, which ranks 88th in the country, while allowing 70.5, which is ranked 70th. The Hurricanes average 84.3 points per game, ranked 60th, while conceding only 70, which is ranked 58th.

This is the first game of the year between the schools, but Miami lost 92-73 at UNC as 17.5-point underdogs last season.

North Carolina's latest win was a thriller for sure, as the Tar Heels trailed the entire game, until Seth Trimble hit a three-pointer with 0.4 seconds left on the clock. 

But now they have to face a quick turnaround here to face the hungry Hurricanes as each team tries to take sole possession of third place in the conference.

The Hurricanes have come a long way since last season under first-year head coach Jai Lucas, a former Duke assistant, enjoying their best season since the 2023 Final Four run.

To say Miami will be eager to get a little revenge in this matchup would be an understatement as well, as North Carolina has won three straight in this series. 

Both teams feature a lot of talent. UNC will have to be careful of Indiana transfer Malik Reneau, who averages 20 points per game for Miami.

But where Miami has had an advantage offensively over most teams this season, I expect the Hurricanes to have a much more difficult time vs. this methodical Tar Heels' defense. 

Duke averages 83.5 points per game, but North Carolina's come-from-behind win on the weekend over the Blue Devils was sparked by their aggressive defensive play, and I'm expecting a duplicate performance here.

Tar Heel leader Caleb Wilson was the first one to quickly warn his team to refocus on the task at hand, reportedly as well, so the Tar Heels definitely seemed locked in at the moment.

With so much on the line, I'm expecting a competitive battle to be a very low-scoring defensive one.

This is a great situational play in my opinion.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG 12 TOY on the OVER WVU/Cincinnati.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating that a faster overall pace will lead to a higher-combined final outcome finally tonight in Cincinnati.

The Mountaineers beat the Bearcats 62-60 at home last month as 1.5-point favorites, but note that Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent.

The Bearcats are 11-2 at home and I'm expecting the revenge-minded home side to open things up offensively.

Everything points to a faster overall game pace to lead to a lot of points hitting the board; the play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU.

NC State is 5-1 on the road, while SMU is 12-1 at home. After four straight victories, I think the Wolfpack are now overvalued in this spot.

They lost this game 63-57 at home to SMU last year and the Mustangs enter looking to bounce back from an 88-74 loss at Louisville. 

The bottom line here, while I think the outright win is the most likely outcome, in a game that will most likely be decided by whichever of these evenly matched sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points!

Good luck, NP

This is a REVENGE GOM on the Magic.

Orlando lost 114-112 at home to the Spurs back in December. They easily covered with the 8.5 points.

Orlando has won back-to-back games and scored 263 points in the process.

The Spurs lost as big favorites at Charlotte yesterday.

The MAGIC have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright, but my official call is to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG TEN TOW on the OVER Iowa/Oregon.

Ultimately I expect a faster pace to lead to plenty of scoring opportunities with 15-5 Iowa pushing the pace and setting the tone.

The Ducks are only 8-13 overall, but they're 7-5 SU at home. Iowa is only 1-4 SU on the road. 

Expect a competitive battle to lead to a lot more points than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe with this super low total.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST PLAY ont eh OVER Thunder/Wolves.

OKC plays with revenge following a 112-107 loss here in December.

Ultimately I believe a faster pace and a competitive battle will lead to a lot of scoring in the rematch.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an SEC BEST OF THE BEST on Georgia.

I really like the way this one sets up for Georgia at home over Tennessee on Wednesday night.

The Vols are 13-6 overall, including just 1-3 SU/ATS on the road, while the Bulldogs are 16-4 overall, including 11-1 SU and 5-7 ATS at home.

Tennessee has been trading wins and losses over its last seven games, and off an upset 79-73 road victory at Alabama as a 3.5-point underdog, I'm expecting a letdown here once again from the visiting side in the pattern.

Georgia lost this game 74-56 on the road last year as a 12.5-point underdog, but now the Bulldogs have the upper hand and a clear advantage in my opinion.

After back-to-back losses, Georgia now enters as the hungrier team in this fight following an 87-67 setback at Texas as a 2.5-point underdog last time out.

The tale of the tape as far as their stats are concerned, finds the Volunteers averaging 86.8 points per game, while allowing 72.8, while Georgia averages 93.5 points per game, ranked sixth in the nation, while conceding 76.5. 

Georgia has a difficult upcoming game against 16-4 Texas A&M this weekend, so the Bulldogs can't look past this opportunity tonight as they try to avoid the two-game slide.

Tennessee returns home for a more "winnable" home game against Auburn on Saturday, and so the immediate scheduling for these two teams is working in favor of Georgia as well, I'll argue.

Situationally, I love the way this one sets up for Georgia to not only win, but to do so by a sizeable margin. 

Interestingly, the "Dunkyard Dawgs" enter this week leading the country in percentage of field goals that are dunks, at 19.7 percent with 133 slams overall. 

The Bulldogs are also No. 2 nationally in scoring, and it produces 47.2 percent of its offense through fastbreak points at 23.1 per game, which ranks No. 1 in the country. They're also No. 1 in free throw makes at 21 points per game.

Georgia has been tough defensively as well, though, led by Somto Cyril, who joined the Bulldogs' top-10 single-season leaders in blocks in the Texas game, and he now has 57 rejections on the season.

A great "situational" factor working in favor of the Bulldogs here as well is that this game was pushed back 24 hours due to the winter storm, and it was originally scheduled for Tuesday. 

Additionally, Georgia is incredibly deep, as eleven Bulldogs average double-figures in minutes played, and note that ten of the 11 have scored ten-plus points in a game this year.

Ja'Kobi Gillespie is a minor worry for the Bulldogs, as he leads the Vols and ranks among the division leaders in no less than eight stats – No. 5 in scoring (18.8 ppg), No. 2 in playing time, No. 3 in assists, to name just a few.

Despite the loss last weekend, Georgia has still matched its third-best 20-game start in 121 seasons of basketball, and I believe it's now primed for not only a solid win but also a solid cover.

Lay the points on GEORGIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG TEN GOW on Purdue.

No. 4 Purdue has not been at its best of late, but I think it'll bounce back here on the road in this difficult road venue.

The Boilermakers are now 17-3 straight-up and 4-1 SU on the road after back-to-back losses. 

Purdue fell 69-67 at UCLA as a 5.5-point favorite before then losing 88-82 at home to Illinois as a 5.5-point favorite.

The Boilermakers have now lost six straight against the spread, but I think they'll step up here and not only win, but cover the spread as well.

They play with a small amount of revenge as well after falling 73-58 here in February last season.

Of course, a lot has changed for both teams since then.

Indiana enters 13-7 straight up overall, and 10-2 SU at home.

The Hoosiers snapped a four-game slide with an 82-59 victory at Rutgers as 7.5-point favorites last week.  

Looking at these teams' immediate schedules, though, finds it working in favor of Purdue, as it'll head to 8-12 Maryland after this, before a home game vs. 8-12 Oregon.

Indiana, on the other hand, is at 14-6 UCLA after this, followed by a game at 15-5 USC.

Providing they can focus, and after back-to-back difficult losses, the Boilermakers would appear to have a golden opportunity over the next three weeks to post three straight victories.

And it's difficult for me not to see the Hoosiers in some small way getting caught looking ahead to their difficult upcoming road trip.

Situationally, I really like the way this one sets up for Purdue to bounce back in.

The tale of the tape, as far as their stats are concerned, finds Indiana averaging 81.2 points per game, while allowing 69.4, while Purdue averages 84 points per game, while conceding 69.1. 

One other factor to consider is that Hoosiers' head coach Darian DeVries and almost his entire team will be experiencing this particular rivalry for the very first time, while most of the Boilermakers' roster have already experienced and know the importance of this matchup.

Granted, Lamar Wilkerson is one of the best scorers in the Big Ten this year, averaging 19.4 points per game for Indiana, and he had 44 in a win over Penn State. 

But the Hoosiers definitely lack size and, at times, have been smoked on the boards vs. better teams this year, getting outrebounded 37-19 in the loss to Michigan State and 41-25 by Michigan. 

Indiana has also struggled with discipline, as it's averaging 18.5 fouls per game this season, which ranks 252nd nationally. 

Oscar Cluff, Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Daniel Jacobsen are poised to take advantage on Tuesday and finally power a bounce-back effort for the underperforming Boilermakers.

Indiana has failed to post any significant victories this season, as it's just 4-5 in Big Ten play, with most of the Hoosiers wins coming against bottom-feeders, including 0-8 Penn State, 1-8 Maryland, 2-7 Rutgers, and 3-6 Washington.

There are still 11 conference games to go for the Boilermakers, so while the back-to-back losses are concerning, this is a spot that Matt Painter has been in before.

Guys, I smell a blowout here for the BOILERMAKERS, so I'm laying the short points!

Good luck, NP

This is a WCC BOB on the OVER Gonzaga/Seattle.

I believe that, ultimately, a faster overall pace in this game will lead to plenty of scoring.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOTAL BK on the UNDER Jazz/Cavs.

This can be a high-scoring final combined outcome, and still stay well below this sky-high number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting.

Neither team is playing much defense these days, especially the Jazz, but the overall conditions and situation that each finds itself in points to this being a much less offensively-efficient game than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

A lot of things have to go right to eclipse 250 points in a game, and I think these teams are fatigued and that Cleveland will be caught "looking ahead" to its two straight games at Philadelphia after this.

Starters could be rested in the second half after going up big. 

Utah is off a humbling 150-95 loss to Charlotte and I think it'll struggle offensively in this difficult road venue on Monday as well.

This number is high, so the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on Portland.

Portland is 0-4 SU/ATS on the road, but now I think the Pilots are undervalued in this spot.

Saint Mary's is 8-0 at home but it only won this game by a score of 79-66 as a 23-point favorite here last season, and I'm expecting another competitive battle here in 2025/26, with the Gaels getting caught "looking ahead" to their game vs. 12-3 Seattle here on Sunday.

No outright, but closer than expected in what sets up as a great situational play on PORTLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a WEST-CONFERENCE GOM on the Pelicans.

After a five-game win streak, New Orleans enters having lost five straight. 

But, I think they catch the Blazers at the correct time, as I think Portland will get caught looking ahead to its game at division-leader San Antonio tomorrow night.

New Orleans beat Portland 143-120 here in early December and everything points to another comfortable win and cover here on Friday as well in my opinion.

The play is on the PELICANS.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG WEST TOM on the UNDER CSU Northridge/UC Davis.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a competitive conference battle to be a tighter and lowe-scoring defensive battle on Thursday.

Cal State Northridge is just 2-4 on the road, while UC Davis is 5-1 at home, but the Matadors won this game by a score of 65-62 as 4-point favorites here last year and in my opinion, everything points to a similar final combined outcome this season as well.

This number is much too high for a few different situational reasons in my opinion, so I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an ACC GOM on Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh is 7-6 overall, including 0-2 SU/ATS on the road, while Miami is 11-2 overall, including 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS at home.

But now I think that the Hurricanes are a bit overvalued in this spot. Pittsburgh won this game 74-65 at home as an 11.5-point favorite last season and while a lot has changed for each side since, I still think the Panthers will be competitive here against the Hurricanes, who have a long break after this, followed by a game at Wake Forest on January 7th.

Pittsburgh is off consecutive wins and covers as well, most recently destroying Penn State 80-46 as 1-point favorites.

The Panthers average 74 PPG, while allowing just 67.8, while the Hurricanes average 89.5 PPG, while conceding 67.7.

PITTSBURGH's aggressive defensive play will keep it competitive late in this one and while I'm stopping short in calling for the outright upset, I believe everything points to this one coming right down to the proverbial wire, so I'm grabbing the points.

Good luck, NP

This is an EASTERN-CONFERENCE GOM on the Hawks.

The X-Mas break came at a good time for each team.

The Hawks enter having lost four straight, while Miami has lost eight of its last nine, including three in a row. 

Both teams play tomorrow, with the Hawks welcoming the Knicks, and the Heat returning home to play the Pacers, with a game against Denver after that.

The overall "situation" favors the home side in my opinion and that'll be the difference-maker in the end for ATLANTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Nuggets/Wolves.

As being primarily a situational capper, I love the way this one sets up to be more of a defensive battle, rather than a "run-and-gun" shootout.

Both teams have been playing in several high-scoring games to open up the young season, but I think the conditions are finally right for more of a defensive battle between two teams who will almost assuredly be in the thick of a playoff position at the end of the year.

Denver is 1-1 and Minnesota is 1-1. As of writing. And that's because I'm producing this video before knowing the result of the Wolves' home game against Indiana on Sunday. 

They'll then play the second game of the back-to-back on Monday, so whether the Sunday game goes OVER or UNDER the number, it doesn't matter; fatigue for the home side is a driving factor behind this situational pick as well. Minnesota won't want to try and turn this into a potential shootout with the Nuggets, obviously.  

The Nuggets lost 137-131 in OT in Golden State in their opener, before a 133-111 home win over Phoenix. Both games flew well OVER the posted number.

Minnesota held on for a 118-114 win at Portland on opening night, before a 128-110 loss at the Lakers two nights later as a favorite. And then, as mentioned, the Wolves play on Sunday at home against the Pacers.

After the Wolves welcome the Lakers at home, the schedule certainly isn't easy for Minnesota here over the first two weeks of the season.

The last regular-season game they played against each other resulted in a 140-139 OT upset win for the Wolves back on April 1st, but everything now finally points to this particular O/U line being inflated, so I'm on the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is an EASTERN CONFERENCE TOM on the OVER Bulls/Hornets.

Two teams in need of a win collide here in Charlotte on Friday and ultimately, guys, I'm expecting a faster-pace to lead to plenty of points.

I'm travelling this morning, so don't have the time for my complete analysis, but if needed, just hit me up on socials to discuss this one in further details, but look for these hungry sides to push the tempo and for this total to fly OVER the number early in the fourth.

Good luck, NP

This is a WESTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Suns/Wolves.

Look for a faster pace to lead to more points in this one.

I'm travelling today, so don't have the normal time for my in-depth analysis, but the bottom line here is that a faster pace will lead to more shots and more shots = more points.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOTAL BK on the UNDER OKC/Utah.

Utah plays with revenge following a humbling 144-112 loss here to OKC back in late November, and note that the Jazz have in fact seen the total dip UNDER the number in seven of their last ten (dating to last year of course), in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

I expect a more methodical pace in the rematch to lead to a lower-scoring final combined outcome, so I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a NON-CONF TOP SIDE on North Texas.

TCU has faced a difficult schedule, but off an 87-85 OT loss to Notre Dame as a 7-point favorite, I think they'll struggle to cover this larger spread against UNT.

The Mean Green have won four straight and I expect their depth to carry them to a solid cover down the stretch.

Grab the points with NORTH TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a NON-CONF DOG OF THE YEAR on Delaware State.

Navy is overvalued here in my opinion.

Navy is 4-5 overall, including just 1-3 on the road.

Delaware State is 2-7 overall, but 2-0 at home.

With a game vs. Air Force at home this weekend, I expect the visitors to get caught looking ahead here.

Grab the points with DELAWARE STATE in what sets up as a great "situational" play for the home side.

Good luck, NP

This is a MID-MAJOR MAULING on Idaho.

Sam Houston State is 4-2 overall, including 0-2 SU on the road. It's 2-0 ATS, but I think it'll struggle here with 4-2 Idaho, which is 2-0 at home.

With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched. And they are when we dive deeper into their numbers.

With a game at Oklahoma State up next though, I think the Bearkats classically get caught "looking ahead" here.

Look for IDAHO to step up and take advantage. 

Good luck, NP

This is a BOOKIEKILLER on the Hawks.

Atlanta plays with revenge following a 117-109 loss at Cleveland at the start of the month, and note that the Hawks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an Eastern Conference opponent.

The outright is of course very possible, but let's grab the points with ATLANTA

Good luck, NP

This is a BLOWOUT TOTAL on the UNDER Oklahoma State/Northwestern.

Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I I think that fact has only driven this particular O/U line a few points higher than it normally would be. 

This is part of the CBS Sports Thanksgiving Classic in Chicago. 

Oklahoma State is 6-0, but this is the Cowboys first true "road" game of the year, even though this is a neutral site location. Look for those two factors to throw a minor "monkey wrench" into their offensive play today.

The Wildcats though are 5-1, and they don't have to make a long trip to this venue. 

Oklahoma State concedes 74.3 PPG, while Northwestern allows 80.2. 

The team that plays the best defense will come out on top here.

I expect a more methodically-paced affair to lead to a lower-scoring combined final outcome.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a COAST-TO-COAST TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Wolves/Thunder.

I'm expecting a faster pace to lead to more shots, and more shots to lead to more points here.

Traveling today, so don't have time to write normal full length analysis.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOTAL BK on the UNDER Lakers/Jazz.

The Jazz have played to five straight OVERS after a 144-112 loss here to OKC on Friday. Note though that looking back the Jazz have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight OVER in a row.

The Lakers last outing was a 140-126 win at home over these very Jazz. But with a game against the rival Clippers up next, I believe LA gets caught looking ahead here.

Either way, while each side has been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, I believe the conditions are now correct for a much more tightly-checked, and ultimately lower-scoring final combined outcome.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a NON-CONF GOY on Loyola Chicago.

Northern Illinois is 2-3, including 0-3 on the road, while Loyola Chicago is 1-4 overall, including 1-2 at home.

The Ramblers have faced some decent teams, but are 0-5 against the spread. I think now thought that they're undervalued here facing the Huskies out of the MAC.

With a tough neutral-court game against currently 4-0 Northern Iowa, Loyola Chicago will look to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish tonight.

NIU has struggled with consistecy and is off the 70-57 loss at Northern Iowa, as the Huskies now face another difficult task against the deeper home side.

After a difficult start, LOYOLA CHICAGO has a great matchup here to work out some final "kinks" before getting into the "meat" of their regular-season schedule. 

Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is DOG OF THE WEEK on Texas Southern.

The 0-4 SU/ATS Texas Southern Tigers have played an extremely tough schedule, with road losses against Gonzaga, Texas A&M and Texas State, to go along with a 93-90 OT loss at home to Samford as a 2.5-point underdog.

Once again they're huge dogs here on the road, but they entered battle-tested and getting a ton of points and I believe they'll easily and comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. 

Vanderbilt is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, with the one ATS loss coming in its most recent 104-75 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff as 42-point favs. 

But with a neutral-court game vs. Western Kentucky next, followed by a game against SMU, I feel Vanderbilt is in a "trap" here with the Tigers.

Look for Vandy to go up early, to build an insurmountable lead, but then expect it to take the foot off the gas in the second half, allowing TEXAS SOUTHERN to earn the comfortable ATS cover.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOP PLAY SIDE WINNER on Alabama.

I'm travelling and don't have the time to give my full analysis. If needed, you can hit me up on socials to get the full details.

Alabama won this game 100-87 last year and I think it has an opportunity to win this year's matchup outright as well.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever of these talented and evenly matched teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on ALABAMA.

Good luck, NP

This is a NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Bulls/Nuggets.

The Bulls have lost five straight and they're just 1-5  on the road overall. They're off a 150-147 OT loss at Utah just last night and I expect fatigue to be a factor.

Look for Denver to control the tempo and for this game to stay well UNDER the number once the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is an UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK play on FAMU.

Florida A&M is 0-3 SU/ATS, but I think it'll comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with all these points.

And that's because I'm counting on the 4-0 Georgia Bulldogs to go up early, to gain an insurmountable lead, but then to take the foot off the gas in the second half as they prepare for their game against Xavier on Friday.

FAMU has faced some stiff competition to open the season and comes in battle tested. 

Look for Georgia to earn the comfortable outright victory, but look for the RATTLERS to earn the even easier ATS win on Monday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% TOTAL BK on the UNDER Warriors/Spurs.

As being primarily a situational capper, I love the way this one sets up to be more of a defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring one.

Note that this game is part of the NBA In-Season Cup. 

The Spurs are 8-3, and the Warriors are 7-6.

These teams just played against each other on Wednesday, and the Warriors came from behind to knock off the Spurs by a score of 125-120. Now two nights later, they're doing it again, but note that looking back, San Antonio has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a straight-up and against the spread home loss against an opponent.

San Antonio enters having seen the total go OVER the number in six straight, and many are expecting another high-scoring shootout here, but I believe the value has now finally swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. 

Golden State has now 7-6, and it's been trading straight up and against the spread wins and losses over its last four games and it'll be hoping that pattern does not continue here in the rematch against the Spurs on Friday night. 

The Warriors have seen the total go OVER in four of their last five, but have three more road games as part of this current trip still to prepare for.

Note that despite the win in the first game, the Warriors are still 21st in the league in offensive efficiency (112.9), with that average dropping on the road to 108.2.

And despite the loss, Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs are still fifth in defensive rating in the league and still only concede 108 points per game.

While the first game flew well OVER the number, for all of the situational reasons I listed above, I say the rematch will stay well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% TOTAL BK on the UNDER Heat/Knicks.

As being primarily a situational capper, I love the way this one sets up to be more of a defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring one.

New York is 7-4, but it just had its five-game win streak snapped in a 124-107 home loss to the Magic last time out. 

The Knicks have been putting up some impressive offensive numbers of late, but they came crashing back down to the Earth in the loss, which came at a much bigger price as well as star Jalen Brunson rolled his ankle in the final moments. It was the same ankle that Brunson injured last year and which kept him out for 15 games. 

Brunson was averaging 28 points and 6.5 assists per game and it's going to be impossible to instantly replace that production and to expect that the team's chemistry will continue so perfectly without any hiccups. 

That means that Miles McBride will be stepping in to fill the void, and the veteran averaged 8.4 points in 22 minutes per game last year. 

This is the second matchup of the year between the rivals, as New York fell 115-107 in Miami as a three-point favorite back on October 26th. 

This is the start of a "home and home" set as well, as they'll play in New York on Monday. 

Miami is 7-5 after falling to Cleveland 130-116 at home on Wednesday. The Heat have seen the total go OVER in three straight, but dating to last season I think it's important to note that Miami has in fact seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight OVER in a row.

The bottom line here is that the Knicks are going to have to start running more of their offense through their big men in the post, and that means taking time to set up plays.

I think the injury to Brunson throws a proverbial "monkey wrench" into the Knicks' high-powered offense and that a slower overall pace in Friday's game here in New York will ultimately help in also driving this total UNDER the number before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a WESTERN CONFERENCE GOY on the LA Clippers.

It's ALL HANDS ON DECK for the Clippers tonight after five straight losses. They're just 3-7 now and are clearly one of the biggest early-season disappointments. They've played some decent teams, but enough is enough essentially, as I expect James Harden to risk life and limb tonight to try and secure the victory.

The Nuggets come in on the other end of the spectrum, having won five straight. Note, though, that they won four of those five games at home, where they're 6-0 this season. Nikola Jokic has been on fire to open the season, but one has to wonder how long the Big Serb can keep this pace going without a small letdown.

And I think it'll be here against the lowly Clippers. With a big game against Anthony Edwards and the Wolves in Minnesota up next, I think it's also a bit of a look-ahead spot.

And when you add those two situational factors together, most of the time you get a "trap" game.

The Clippers play with the added incentive of "revenge" as well after Denver took them out in seven games in the playoffs last season. 

This is their first matchup of the year, but they went 2-2 in the regular season last year. 

Kawhi Leonard is still out for the Clippers, but don't be surprised to see the Nuggets resting some people here as well.

Either way, whatever cliche you want to use here for the Clippers: "Now or never!" Do or die!" etc, etc...while I anticipate the Nuggets to come in a tiny bit complacent, finally.

Don't be surprised if the Clippers win outright, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOOKIEKILLER on the Kings.

After four straight home wins/covers, I think the Nuggets come out flat here in the opener of this trip as they get caught looking ahead to their game at the Clippers tomorrow night. 

Sacramento plays with revenge after losing at Denver last week as well, just a great situational play here on the hungry KINGS, who have arguably played one of the most difficult early schedules in the league.

Grab the points with SACRAMENTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOTAL BOOKIEKILELR on the UNDER Wolves/Jazz.

Utah is 3-6 and its lost two straight, including a 137-97 setback here to these very Wolves most recently.

Note that the Jazz have seen the total go UNDER in six of their last eight in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent.

Minnesota is getting healthier and it's starting to play a lot better, but off a 144-117 blowout win at Sacramento just last night, expect fatigue to be an issue for the visiting side in the second game of the back-to-back.

And with Indiana coming to town tomorrow, the home side will be trying to reserve some gas for the second game of the back-to-back scenario.

I say the conditions are aligned for a much more defensive affair than what this O/U line is suggesting; the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a NON-CONFERENCE GOW on Mississippi State.

Mississippi State wasn't really tested in its 86-62 win over North Alabama to open the season, although the Bulldogs did not cover the large 24.5-point spread. But they almost did.

Iowa State is 2-0 SU/ATS and it's been a huge favorite in each of its favorable opening contest, most recently hammering Grambling State 102-62 as a 34-point fav.

It's hard to say if Iowa State is as good as advertised. The same thing for Mississippi State though.

But these teams matchup well across the board and I think it'll come right down to wire, basically whoever has their hands on the ball last is going to find a way to win type thing. So, in a scenario like that, I feel much more comfortable grabbing the points.

The play is on MISSISSIPPI STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Celtics/Magic.

The Celtics play with revenge following a 123-110 loss at Orlando two night ago, and note that Boston has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last eight in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as an underdog vs. an opponent.

With a game at Philly on Tuesday, Boston could be caught "looking ahead" here as well.

The Magic will have their hands full with this injured Boston side and I am anticipating a competitive rematch to yield a lower-scoring combined final outcome.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a WESTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the Thunder/Kings under.

If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I base my Over/Under picks, in every sport, mainly on what I perceive to be really great "SITUATIONS." And that's the case with this one, as despite these teams having played to several higher-scoring outcomes of late, I say the conditions are now finally right for much more of a defensive battle.

Sacramento is 3-5 straight up and 2-1 at home, while Oklahoma City is 8-1 straight up and 4-1 on the road.

These teams played on October 28th, and the Thunder won 107-101 in Oklahoma City, unable to cover the 9-point spread. That game went UNDER the posted number of 227.5, and I am absolutely expecting an almost carbon copy of that contest now playing out here in Sacramento, and that's one of the reasons why I really like the UNDER in this one.

The Kings went 2-2 after that loss, most recently beating Golden State 121-116, but all four games went OVER the number.

Oklahoma City has gone 3-1 since the victory, most recently coming off its first loss of the season in a tight 121-119 loss at Portland. 

All four of those games also went OVER the number for the Thunder.

The game plan will be simple for the Kings, though in my opinion, as the revenge-minded home side will once again look to slow this one down and take control of the tempo.

And note the UNDER is 4-1 in Sacramento's last five games as a home dog in he +5 to +10.5-points range dating to last year as well.

In the earlier matchup against each other, it was Zach LaVine who led the way for the Kings despite being held to just 23 points, and it was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who led the way for the Thunder with 31. 

But these two guys got little help from anyone else in that one. 

After each team has played so many high-scoring games of late, the masses are too quick to automatically assume this will be another high-scoring affair.

I believe the circumstances that each side finds itself in coming into this one have shifted the value to the UNDER as far as the total is concerned.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOTAL PUNISHER on the UNDER Clippers/Suns.

This is the first of two games between the clubs, as they'll play again in LA on Saturday.

The Suns are off a 118-107 loss to Golden State and are now 3-5, while the Clippers are off two straight losses, most recently falling 126-107 at home to Oklahoma City.

Neither team has gotten out to the start it had hoped for, and each will be hungry for a victory here. 

Chemistry has been an issue for each side in the early going offensively, and with each team playing more aggressively on the defensive side like I anticipate they will be, I have a hard time seeing them combining to exceed this O/U line; this number is high in my opinion, so I'm on the UNDER. 

Good luck, NP

This is a CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on North Dakota State.

I think North Dakota State winning this game outright is the most likely outcome, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched. Or at least they're trying to lead us to believe that. 

Even with the best scouting reports on these teams, you have to be careful about how you approach and handicap the start of the season.

I like being contrarian at the start of the season (in any sport), and I also give teams the good ol' "eye test" a lot of the time as well.

And looking at these two teams, I think that NDSU could/should, in fact, be favored here.

UC Davis is off the relatively simple 96-69 win over lowly Menlo College, while North Dakota State took heavily favored Oregon State down to the wire as a 9-point underdog, but eventually fell 67-65.

The Bison got balanced scoring in their loss, though, led by 17 points from Markhi Strickland.

But more impressive was their defensive play, which kept them in the game throughout and almost allowed them to pull off the outright upset. IF NDSU had won that Opening game, could they, in fact, possibly be favored by 1 point in this spot?

Perception is everything in the eyes of the public, and the bookmakers know it.

As I said, I think the wrong team is favored here. I'm grabbing the points with NORTH DAKOTA STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOOKIEKILLER on the BLAZERS on the MONEYLINE

The Lakers are playing extremely well, 5-2 SU and ATS, including 3-0 SU/ATS on the road.

But now they run into a hungry and undervalued Blazers team that continues to knock off opponents, sitting 4-2 overall, including 3-0 ATS at home.

LA has a home game against Wemby and the Spurs up next and I expect it to get caught looking ahead.

The Blazers just knocked off Denver and it has OKC coming to town next, which I believe puts added emphasis on to this contest.

Let's bypass the spread though and instead play PORTLAND on the reasonable MONEYLINE option to just win this game outright.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NORTHWEST GOM on the Blazers.

In what I believe will be an incredibly competitive game between division opponents in Portland on Friday night, a contest likely decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend that you grab as many points as you can with the live home dog.

I like the way this one sets up for Portland.

Denver is 3-1 overall, and 1-1 SU and ATS on the road, while Portland is 3-2 overall, including 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS overall.

The Nuggets are coming off three straight wins/covers, but all against teams currently struggling with various injuries and other off-court issues, in the Suns, Wolves, and Pelicans.

In their one road game against a half-decent team, they lost 137-131 in overtime at Golden State on Opening night.

This is a divisional contest, so it's hard to see the Nuggets "looking past" the Blazers, but "looking past" Portland is something that everyone has done over the last couple of seasons. Denver also has two nights off after this Halloween night contest, before four favorable home contests.

As being primarily a "situational" capper, I think this is a bit of a "trap" game for the Nuggets, as they're off three straight wins/covers, and are primed to look past their opponent here to a couple of nights off and a long and favorable home stretch. 

The Blazers have faced some good teams in the early going, and they've looked sharp, especially at home. Off back-to-back road wins and now facing the long-time division leader, the Blazers, in my opinion, are a true "live home dog" in this spot on Friday.

Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant continue to be undervalued, and I think they'll take Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets to the brink. Holiday had 27 points and Grant had 18 in the Blazers' most recent 136-134 road win at Utah.

Now throw in the fact that everyone and their grandma is on the Nuggets here, and this play also greatly appeals to my contrarian side as well.

As I said off the top, PORTLAND may not win this one outright, but it's going to be an all-out battle until the end in my opinion; so grab the points!

Good luck, NP

This is a TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers/Wolves UNDER.

I love the way this one sets up to be a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a run-and-gun shootout for a couple of different reasons.

Both teams are 2-2 straight-up. The Lakers are 2-2 against-the-spread, while the Wolves are 0-4 ATS.

Minnesota has seen the total go OVER in three of its first four games, including in its most recent 127-114 loss at home here to Denver. It also flew OVER the number in their 128-110 loss at the Lakers last week.

LA on the other hand has seen the total fly OVER the number in all four games it's played in, including in its most recent 122-108 home loss to the Blazers.

After this the Lakers are in Memphis on Halloween night, while Minnesota starts a three-game road trip starting in Charlotte on November 1st.

If the Lakers are going to win games right now, they're going to need Luca Doncic to step up and have a huge effort, because LeBron James is still sidelined with injury for a while.

But now the Wolves are having to deal with an injury to their star Anthony Edwards as well, who was out in the loss to the Pacers.

Minnesota will now be leaning heavily on Mike Conley to move the ball with Edwards sidelined, and I think it's not going to be a great thing overall for an offense that's already shown inconsistencies with Edwards in the lineup. Conley played 25 minutes against the Pacers after Edwards exited and started against the Nuggets on October 27th.

Look for the rematch to be a lot less inefficient and for these defenses to play very aggressively.

As such, the BOOKIEKILLER play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Hornets/Heat.

I base my picks on many different things. I don't follow any one particular handicapping methodology, but for the most part I base my Over/Under picks (in every sport!), on what I perceive to be great "situations."

And I think that this contest between the Hornets and the Heat will be a much more defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Both teams enter 2-1 SU. Charlotte is 3-0 ATS, while Miami is also 3-0 ATS. 

All three of the Hornets games have flown OVER the posted number so far this season, while two of three of the Heat's have gone OVER the number. 

They looked great defensively though in their most recent 115-107 home win over New York, and I'm now expecting a similar defensive effort here on Tuesday night against the Hornets.

This becomes an important game scheduling wise for the Heat, who hit the road for four straight tough Western contests.

The Hornets return home for three straight after this, starting with the Magic on Thursday.

It's safe to say that scoring is up right now early on in the NBA, and oddsmakers are having to quickly adjust. But now I think they've OVER-adjusted.

This number is now high, as all of these different situational factors, in my opinion, finally point to this total staying well UNDER this sky-high total.

Good luck, NP

This is a Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Nuggets/Wolves.

As being primarily a situational capper, I love the way this one sets up to be more of a defensive battle, rather than a "run-and-gun" shootout.

Both teams have been playing in several high-scoring games to open up the young season, but I think the conditions are finally right for more of a defensive battle between two teams who will almost assuredly be in the thick of a playoff position at the end of the year.

Denver is 1-1 and Minnesota is 2-1 after beating Indiana 114-110 last night.

They'll then play the second game of the back-to-back on Monday, and fatigue for the home side is a driving factor behind this situational pick as well. Minnesota won't want to try and turn this into a potential shootout with the Nuggets, obviously.  

Denver lost 137-131 in OT in Golden State in their opener, before a 133-111 home win over Phoenix. Both games flew well OVER the posted number.

Minnesota held on for a 118-114 win at Portland on opening night, before a 128-110 loss at the Lakers two nights later as a favorite. And the last night, they stayed under by just two buckets.

The last regular-season game they played against each other resulted in a 140-139 OT upset win for the Wolves back on April 1st, but everything now finally points to this particular O/U line being inflated, so I'm on the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a WEST-CONF TOM on the UNDER Suns/Nuggets.

The Nuggets lost 137-131 in OT at Golden State in their opener, and will now look to control this game at home against a Suns team which is 0-2 after last night's 129-102 loss at the Clippers.

Fatigue will be an issue for both sides.

Look for sloppy and slower overall play on the court to lead to a lower-scoring outcome.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP