Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-18-23 | Astros +1.5 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SUPER BLOWOUT on the ASTROS on the RUNLINE. I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance here. The Rangers have been unbelievable to this point, but I predict the letdown here finally. Max Scherzer (13-7, 3.77 ERA) will make his first start since September 12th, and I say that "rest" leads to "rust" here. It's the playoffs and it's an entirely different animal despite his years of experience in this spot and I think it'll take him some time to acclimate to this level. Cristian Javier (1-0, 0.00 ERA) counters for the visitors, and he's yet to even allow a run over three career playoff starts. Overall he's 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA in 15 postseason appearances. I say that the Rangers run of good fortune finally comes to an end here. That said, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is HOUSTON on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
10-10-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rangers | 1-7 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Orioles RUNLINE. The Rangers have been surging, but at some point they're going to have a letdown. I'm predicting tonight is that night. With their season on the line, I like the Orioles to dig deep here and to find a way to deliver the goods. However, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, ultimately I'm going to recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. It's the Rangers first home game so far in the playoffs, having gone 4-0 on the road. Baltimore though was also fantastic on the road this season, finishing 52-29 away from friendly confines. Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 1.35 ERA) has been great for the Rangers so far, but he's just in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today in my estimation. The visitors counter with Dean Kremer (13-5. 4.12) who will mke his first start since September 28th when he held the Red Sox scoreless on two hits over six innings. For all the reasons listed above, the play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
10-04-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -124 | 5-2 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ROUT on the Brewers. I had a play on Arizona on the runline last night, but I like Milwaukee to respond here and find a way to stay alive and force a Game 3. Note that Milwaukee is 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Freddy Peralta (12-10, 3.86 ERA) gets the call for the home side, while Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47) counters for the visitors. Peralta had his final regular season start skipped to give him extra rest just for this exact scenario. He was 7-3 with a 3.09 ERA over his final 15 starts. He's also 3-0 with a 0.55 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona. Gallen went 3-3 with a pedestrian 4.17 ERA in six September starts. He's 3-3 with a 1.75 ERA in six caree starts vs. Milwaukee, but this is just a case of Gallen being in "wrong place" at the "wrong time" tonight. I like MILWAUKEE to keep its season alive with a convincing bounce-back victory tonight. Good luck, NP | |||||||
10-04-23 | Rangers v. Rays -149 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -149 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* WC GOY on the Rays. After yesterday's 4-0 loss, I like the Rays to respond at home here with the more "in form" starter going for them tonight. Note that TB is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent as well. The Rays got routed by Cleveland in the Wildcard last yeara and also struggled to put runs on the board. The fact of the matter is, the Rangers didn't look fantastic either, going just 1-for-13 with RISP. Nathan Eovaldi (12-5, 3.63 ERA) gets the call for the Rangers, and while he went 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA vs. the Rays this year, he was just 1-2 with an atrocious 9.30 ERA over his final six September starts. This is a case of: that was then, and this now, for Eovaldi, who is just in the wrong place at the wrong time in my estimation. The home side puts its season on the shoulders of Zach Eflin (16-8, 3.50), who grew up in Orlando: "That was probably my biggest goal this offseason was to sign with a team that wins consistently in the playoffs. It just helped that I grew up a really big Rays fan, and I live two hours away," Eflin said. It's do-or-die time for the Rays. I'm laying the price and finally expecting this underachieving home side to finally figure it out at the plate. Lay the price with confidence, the play is TAMPA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
10-03-23 | Marlins +1.5 v. Phillies | 1-4 | Loss | -147 | 25 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Marlins on the RUNLINE. Philadelphia earned the Top Wildcard in the NL, but I believe it'll have its hands full here in the opener of this three-game series. Philadelphia turns to Zach Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 ERA), while the visitors counter with Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.63.) Both starters looked strong down the stretch and each has had success against the other team. I say Miami throws its best shot here in Game 1 and in a contest that I see being decided late, or in extras, I'm laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is MIAMI on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
10-03-23 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Brewers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Diamondbacks on the RUNLINE. In a contest that I believe is very evenly matched, that will be decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72 ERA) will be looking to match his counterpart Corbin Burnes (10-8, 3.39.) Pfaadt can take confidence in the fact that Arizona is 6-4 the last ten in this series. Also note that in his final start of the regular season, Pfaadt gave up zero runs over six innings in a 3-0 win over the White Sox. Burnes gave up no runs over four innings in a 3-0 win over the Cards in his last outing. The extra time off here is beneficial for this Arizona offense that struggled over the final two weeks, and comes at exactly the wrong time for the Brewers who had considerable momentum going. For all the reasons listed above, the play is ARIZONA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
10-03-23 | Rangers +1.5 v. Rays | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Rangers RUNLINE. Texas has had time to reflect on falling short of the No. 1 seed, but it did recover over the final three weeks to reach this point, and I think it can make the most of this postseason opportunity. At least here in Game 1. Note that Texas is the only team to score more runs than the Rays and the Rangers are also tied for the AL homer lead. Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he enters on serious fire, 2-0 with a minuscule 0.67 ERA over his past four starts. Tyler Glasnow (10-7, 3.53) counters for Tampa and he was just 3-3 with a 4.86 ERA in six September outings. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is TEXAS on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-29-23 | Rays v. Blue Jays -135 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-PLAY on the Jays. It's the final series of the regular season. So with that in mind, I feel this particular play sets up great from a situational stand point. The Rays have clinched the AL Wildcard, and they'll face the Jays in the best of three opening round if Toronto can win this series. All the Jays have to do is win this series and they're in. Tampa has nothing left to play for for the remainder of the regular season. It's dealing with several injury issues as well. Frankly, I don't see the Rays putting up much of a fight here this week North of the border, instead I expect them to already be planning for the playoffs. No such luxury for the Jays though of course, as this is now "do or die." Fortunately as well, this is definitely a starting pitching matchup that favors the home side as well. The Rays go with Aaron Civale (7-4, 3.43 ERA), while the home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-3, 3.31.) Ryu is 4-1 with a 3.23 ERA in eight career starts vs. Tampa, while Civale is 1-0 with a 6.17 ERA in two career outings vs. Toronto. I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Lay the price with confidence, the play is TORONTO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-27-23 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL SLUG-FEST on the OVER Padres/Giants. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Padres are looking to play spoiler here and keep their division rival out of the playoffs, while the Giants are still in a fight for the postseason. San Fran has seen the total go UNDER in five straight after last night's 4-0 loss. Note though that the Giants have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a shutout home loss vs. an opponent, and in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Matt Waldron (1-3, 4.58 ERA) has been consistently inconsistent for the Padres. Same for Sean Manaea (7-6, 4.51) of the Giants. Neither has been great, and I anticipate they'll each "get the hook" here early, and that'll ultimatley help in driving this total OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-26-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 7 | 2-0 | Win | 103 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Yanks/Jays. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a "duel" here in the opener of this series finally in my opinion. The Jays are inching towards a wildcard, while the Yanks have been eliminated. Still, this game will have a playoff like atmosphere about it, as New York will be all business here, trying to play spoiler. We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head in this one, and I expect them to play a big part in the outcome of this contest, with Michael King (4-7, 2.66 ERA) getting the nod for the visitors, and Kevin Gausman (12-9, 3.29) countering for the home side. The number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-21-23 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Pirates/Cubs. The first two games of this series have flown OVER the number, but all signs point to a much more defensive affair here in the finale in my opinion. We have two decent starters going head-to-head here, with Johan Oviedo (8-14, 4.27 ERA) going up against Kyle Hendricks (6-7, 3.77.) Chicago won the opener 14-1, then Pittsburgh answered with the 13-7 victory last night. Note though that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-20-23 | White Sox v. Nationals OVER 9 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER White Sox/Nationals. Both teams have now played to three straight UNDERS after the Nats 4-3 win yesterday. Now here in the finale, I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks in this series. It's significant to note that Chicago has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. And note that Washignton has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in the same position. Neither starter has been terrible, neither has been great either though. Michael Kopech (5-12, 5.47 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while Josiah Gray (7-12, 4.07) counters for the home side. The overall situation, combined with these above supporting O/U trends does indeed make the OVER the correct call in this one in my opinion. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-19-23 | Mariners v. A's OVER 7 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Mariners/A's. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs, including in the Mariners 5-0 win here last night, but everything finally points to a bit more of a "slug-fest" on Tuesday in my opinion. The A's have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a shutout home loss vs. an opponent. The Mariners have now seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but that's significant to note here as well, as Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. We have two decent starters going head-to-head, with Luis Castillo (13-7, 3.08 ERA) going for the Mariners, and Paul Blackburn (4-5, 4.14) countering for the home side. This is just a case of each being in the wrong place, at the wrong time though. The overall situation, combined with these strong supporting O/U ATS stats all point to the OVER as the correct call finally in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-18-23 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOW on the UNDER Phillies/Braves. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect a much tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring contest here in the opener of this series. Zach Wheeler (11-6, 3.70 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, and he's been at his best on the road this year, going 7-4 with a 3.27 ERA away from friendly confines. He'll be opposed by Kyle Wright (0-2, 7.48 ERA) who has clearly seen better days. The good news? Wright has only one way to go with his performance. Also, he's only pitched a total of 21.2 innings this season, and he still owns a decent 23:12 K:BB. I think Wright settles down here finally and matches Wheeler inning for inning. This game will have a playoff like atmosphere about it, and I believe it'll be the men on the mound that take center stage. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-14-23 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* AL TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Yanks/Red Sox. The first two games of this series have gone UNDER the number, but I'm finally expecting some "fireworks" here in the finale. New York has seen the total go UNDER in three straight now in fact, which is significant for us to take note of, as the Yanks have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. And note that Boston has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. Neither starter has impressed me, with Clark Schmidt (9-8, 4.54 ERA) getting the call for the visitors, and Chris Murphy (1-1, 4.64) countering for the home side. When taking into account all of the above situational information, everything poing to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-13-23 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 6-1 | Win | 102 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Padres/Dodgers. I've been on the UNDER in the first two games of this series, and the old saying, "third times a charm," could not be more apt for today's selection on the UNDER once again. SD has now seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that the Padres have seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. LA has seen the total go OVER in seven of its last eight, and the other one "pushed." That's plenty of OVERS played to by both sides of late, but with two competent starters going head-to-head here, I expect a "duel" here finally on Wednesday. The visitors go with ace Blake Snell (13-9, 2.52 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), while the home side counters with Ryan Pepiot (2-0, 0.86 ERA, 0.52 WHIP.) This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-12-23 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 9.5 | 2-11 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DUEL on the UNDER Padres/Dodgers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. San Diego has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after last night's 11-8 series-opening victory. Note that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Dodgers have now seen the total go OVER in seven straight. So we're standing in front of the train here and looking for the Padres' Michael Wacha (11-3, 2.99 ERA), and the Dodgers Lance Lynn (4-2, 4.95) to battle deep. As the title of this pick implies, this is a great "situational" play now finally on the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-11-23 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-8 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
10* UNDER Padres/Dodgers (NL TOW) Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect more of a "duel" here in the opener of this series. San Diego lost two of three to the Astros over the weekend, and all threee games went OVER the number. Note though that the Padres have seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last six after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. The Dodgers have now won three of their last four. They've seen the total go over in six straight now though. The Padres hand the ball to Pedro Avila (1-2, 2.19 ERA), while the home side counters with Gavin Stone (1-0, 10.50.) Two hungry starters. This pick though is based upon the overall situation, combined with the above trend. These teams have been playing to a lot of OVERs of late, but all signs point to this one staying well UNDER once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-08-23 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT TOTAL on the UNDER A's/Rangers. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Oakland is just 19-50 on the road. It's terribly inconsistent at the plate from one game to the next. It just lost two of three to Toronto, but salvaged the finale 5-2. Texas has seen the total go OVER in five straight after losing three in a row to Houston this week. Note though that the Rangers have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row, and in three of their last four after three or more straight losses in a row. We have two really good starters going head-to-head here, with Paul Blackburn (4-4, 3.81 ERA) getting the nod for the A's and Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 3.60) countering for the home side. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-07-23 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOM on the UNDER Cards/Braves. This one sets up well to be a lower-scoring UNDER. The first two games have flown OVER the number in the Cards' back-to-back upsets, winning 10-6 and 11-6. Note that ATL has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after back-to-back home losses. Adam Wainwright (3-10, 8.10 ERA) has obviously been terrible overall for the Cards this year, but he's a sharp 10-4 with a 3.42 ERA In 21 games vs. Atlanta. He'll be opposed by Max Fried (6-1, 2.52), who is on absolute fire and who this base is primarily based upon. Fried just went seven scoreless vs. the Dodgers and posted a season-high ten strikeouts. He's also 4-0 with a 0.34 ERA in five appearances vs. the Cards. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-06-23 | Orioles v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DUEL on the UNDER Orioles/Angels. Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a DUEL here in my opinion. Baltimore continues to steamroll towards the playoffs, as it's now won four in a row, including the first two games of this series. It's seen the total go OVER in four straight, but note that LA has in fact seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five when trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. We have two veteran's squaring off on the mound tonight, with Kyle Gibson (13-8, 5.15 ERA) vs. Patrick Sandoval (7-11, 4.19.) Look for these two guys to battle into the deeper innings, and for that to ultimately help in keeping this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-05-23 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER White Sox/Royals. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Tuesday finally. The White Sox have lost four straight after dropping the opener of this series here yesterday by a score of 12-1, and they've seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four. It's interesting to note though that the ChiSox have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after a ten runs or greater loss in their last outing. KC has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight. All of these recent "overs" have only helped though in contributing to this particular O/U number today in being a little bit TOO high now in my opinion. These two pitchers have seen better days, but they won't be lacking motivation here. Dylan Cease (6-7, 4.91 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Brady Singer (8-10, 5.15.) The overall situation and the above listed O/U trend both point to the UNDER as the correct call in this one as far as the total is concerned. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-04-23 | Astros -102 v. Rangers | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* WINNER on the Astros. There are a ton of implications going on in this game and in this series. Both of these teams are just 1.5 games ahead of Toronto for the final wildcard. They're both tied for second in the AL West, one game behind the Mariners for the lead. We have two evenly matched starting pitchers, and each club has enjoyed its fair share of frustrations over the last few weeks. So in this evenly matched contest, I look for other factors to help me find which way the pendulum will swing as far as value is concerned, and the fact that Houston is 5-1 in its last six after three or more straight losses, does indeed make them the correct call here in this opener in my opinion. I'm rolling with the ASTROS on Monday night. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-02-23 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Cubs/Reds. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Chicago's three-game win streak came to an end in last night's 3-2 loss here. Chicago has seen the total now go UNDER in five straight, but note that the Cubs have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Reds have now seen the total go UNDER in six straight. That fact though has only helped in driving this particular total here on Saturday a little lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. It sets up well from a situational stand point, so that puts Cubs' starter Javier Assad (3-2, 2.96 ERA) and the Reds' Andrew Abbott (8-4, 3.35) in the wrong place at the wrong time here on Saturday. The situation combined with the trends point to the OVER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-01-23 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL EAST TOTAL OF YEAR on the OVER Marlins/Nationals. Both teams have been involved in some lower-scoring affairs, but I'm expecting a "shootout" here now on Friday night. Miami has been alternating wins and losses over its last five games. It managed the 6-1 win here in last night's series opener. The Nationals have managed just one run over their last two losses. We have two decent starters going head-to-head as well, but this is just a case of the Marlins' Eury Perez (5-4, 2.68 ERA) and the Nationals' Jake Irvin (3-5, 4.30) being in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Fish are still in the hunt for a wildcard spot, and they can't afford to look past these opportunities. For the Nationals, they have incentive here to snap the recent slide at the plate, while at the same time playing spoiler. As good as Perez's numbers look as well, note that he's 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in his past six starts. I finally expect some offense to take center stage, so look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-31-23 | Braves v. Dodgers +1.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Dodgers. This is an interesting series between the league's best teams. For me though, in a contest that I could easily go either way, and which I envision being decided late or even in extras, the runline option at this price for the red hot Dodgers here at home is just too good to turn down. And I'd feel that way with essentially anyone that LA put on the mound. I'm not delusional in thinking that Lance Lynn's eye-popping numbers since he came over to the Dodgers are unsustainable over the long-term, but the bottom line here is that I feel the value is still way too good to turn down by getting the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Great value play here on LA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-30-23 | Nationals v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Nats/Jays. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Toronto has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after yesterday's 5-4 loss here to the Nats. Note though that the Blue Jays have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge an upset home loss as a -150 or greater favorites. Both of these starters have been much better over the last month as well and that progression continues here in my estimation, with Patrick Corbin (9-11, 4.70 ERA) going for the visitors, and Chriss Bassitt (12-7, 4.00) countering for the home side. Everything points to this one staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-30-23 | Guardians v. Twins -154 | 5-2 | Loss | -154 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Twins. I like the Twins to bounce back here at home after yesterday's 4-2 loss. Minnesota took the opener by a score of 10-6. Note though that the Twins are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Tyler Bibee (10-3, 3.01 ERA) has been a consistent bright spot for the Guardians all year, but I still give the nod to Sonny Gray (7-6, 3.06) here at home in this revenge situation. Lay the price, the play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-29-23 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the D-Backs runline. These teams were both really hot coming into this series, and LA managed the 7-4 victory as a -145 favorite. Arizona won't be rolling over here obviously, I think the revenge factor comes into play here. And clearly these starters are very evenly matched. This starting pitching matchup is an "Any Given Sunday" type of scenario, in that it would be easy to write a convincing argument for either of these guys to win this game. And so in a case like that, I invariably feel that the value then swings to the undervalued underdog. And in this case, getting Merrill Kelly and the D-Backs with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance on the runline option at this price is just too attractive to turn down in the end. The play is ARIZONA on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-28-23 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 13-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Astros/Red Sox. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but that fact has only helped in driving this Monday total a bit higher than it normally would/should be. Houston has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last night, while Boston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 straight. Clearly we know these teams can hit, but I'm finally expecting a bit of a "duel" here in the opener. The visitors hand the ball to Christian Javier (9-2, 4.52 ERA), while the home side counters with Chris Sale (5-3, 4.68.) Javier is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA in four career meetings vs. the Red Sox, while Sale is 5-3 with a 2.56 ERA in ten career starts vs. Houston. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-27-23 | Cardinals v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING DOMINATION on the Phillies runline. I'm not smelling any upsets here. The Cards look completely dejected, and the Phillies are continuing to get stronger with each passing game. It's in fact very reminiscent of last year at this time for the Phillies, where they caught fire and rode the wave to the World Series. They've outscored the Cards 19-3 over the first two games, and all signs point to another blowout here in my opinion. The Cards hand the ball to the volatile Drew Rom (0-1, 14.73 ERA), who is set to make his second career start after allowing eight runs over three innings in an 11-1 loss to the lowly Pirates on Monday. The home side counters with veteran Aaron Nola (11-8, 4.49), who comes in off a strong performance, allowing two runs over seven innings in a 10-4 victory over the Giants last Monday. Nola has once again been much better at home than on the road this year, posting a 3.49 ERA in 11 home starts. Look for Philadelphia to continue the HIT PARADE and lay the price with confidence. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-26-23 | Astros -126 v. Tigers | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Astros. After three straight losses, including the opener in this one, I expect the Astros to dig deep here and deliver in Detroit. The Tigers are playing well right now, but they're still just 28-35 on the road. Note as well that Houston is 7-3 in its last ten after three or more straight losses in a row. It's also 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a road loss as a fav vs. an opponent. Hunter Brown (9-9, 4.50 ERA) gets the call for the Astros, while Eduardo Rodriguez (9-6, 3.03) counters for the home side. The overall situation though, combined with the above listed trends do indeed make the Astros worth the price of admission in this one. The play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-25-23 | Rangers +105 v. Twins | Top | 2-12 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Rangers. I think the Rangers' run of bad luck comes to an end here. Luck does play a role in long losing streaks, and in long winning streaks. Both teams need victories, but it's all hands on deck for Texas today as it looks to get back into the winner's circle after sevem straight losses. That includes the opener of this series last night by a score of 7-5. Danning Dunning (9-5, 3.19 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, and he's 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in four career starts vs. the Twins. Minnesota now has a six-game lead over the Guardians after last night's come-from-behind win, and I think that complacency finally kicks in a bit here. Sonny Gray (6-6, 3.15) get s the call for the home side, and he's 9-5 with a 3.17 ERA in 17 career games vs. Texas. All in all these starters are evenly matched, but look for TEXAS to finally punch through here and find a way to stop the extened, but now unrealistic slide. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-24-23 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 17-1 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE on the UNDER Red Sox/Astros. Boston has now seen the total go OVER the number in five straight games after losing the first two games of this series. Note though that the Red Sox have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. They've also seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. The Astros have seen the total go UNDER in four straight now. Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but that fact has also helped in driving this total a point higher than it normally would/should be as well in my opinion. Two super in form starters collide, with Brayan Bello (9-7, 3.70 ERA) going for the Red Sox, and JP France (9-4, 2.75) countering for the home side. Look for this afternoon's finale to finally produce a lower-scoring UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-23-23 | Royals v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Royals/A's. Both teams have been playing to higher-scoring affairs of late, but all signs point to this one on Wednesday being more of a "duel." KC has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four, including in the first two losses of this series. Note though that KC has seen the total UNDER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Oakland has now seen the total go OVER in five straight after the B2B wins, which is also significant to note, as the A's have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. Cole Ragans (2-1, 2.51 ERA) has looked sharp for the Royals, Adrian Martinez (0-1, 5.85) less so for the A's. But here's a big opportunity for Martinez to get back to his previous form, facing this lowly opponent. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-22-23 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Red Sox/Astros. I had a play on the UNDER in the opener of this series yesterday, and that was a loser in the Astros' 9-4 victory. Boston has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight, while Houston has seen the total go OVER in three straight (important to note here though that the Astros have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.) Here are two starters looking to improve their records, and hopefully lead their team to a win. The visitors go with Tanner Houck (3-6, 5.05 ERA), while the home side counters with Justin Verlander (2-1, 4.50.) Verlander is 8-6 with a 3.36 ERA overall this season. He's 5-6 with a 2.87 ERA in 19 career regular-season starts vs. Boston. Houck has been out for two months rehabbing, but that progression has reportedly gone well: "It's good to be back," Houck said. "Long road, but I know things could have been much worse so excited to get back out there (on Tuesday)." I think the overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to the UNDER as the savvy call as far as the total is concerned this evening. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-21-23 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Red Sox/Astros. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I look for the opener of this series to be dominated by the men on the mound. Boston has seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after sweeping at the Yankees over the weekend. Note though that the Red Sox have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after losing all three at home to Seattle over the weekend. Note though that the Astros have seen the total UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. James Paxton (7-3, 3.34 ERA) gets the call for Boston, while Christian Javier (8-2, 4.49) counters for the home side. Look for these two veterans to battle deep, and for this total to ultimatley stay UNDER the posted number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-20-23 | Blue Jays v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL TOM on the OVER Jays/Reds. Both teams have been playing to some lower-scoring UNDERS of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening in what I feel sets up to be a classic "slug-fest." The Jays snapped a two-game slide with the 4-3 win yesterday, and they've now seen the total go UNDER in two straight. But more importantly, the Reds have now seen the total go UNDER the number in four straight after the setback, and note that Cincinnati has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. The starters have been decent: Hyun-Jin Ryu is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA for the Jays, while Hunter Greene is 2-4 with a 3.93 ERA for the Reds. This is just a case of these guys being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME today. Because the overall situation, combined with the above trend points to the OVER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-19-23 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL GOY on the Mariners runline. The Mariners have won four straight, including the opener of this one by a score of 2-0. I think the visiting side continues to build momentum here and while I do absolutely believe an outright win is a possibility, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Logan Gilbert (10-5, 3.80 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, and he's 3-2 with a 3.72 ERA over eight career starts vs. the Astros. He'll be opposed by Framber Valdez (9-8, 3.31), who has struggled of late, posting an elevated 5.52 ERA with four dingers allowed over his last two starts. He's had plenty of success vs. the Mariners in the past, going 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA, but this is a case of that being "then," and this being "now." Seattle is 6-2 vs. the Astros this year, including 4-1 at Minute Maid Park. Usually, I like to stand in front of winning streaks or losing streaks, but in this case, the momentum that the Mariners have created right now is very real. I'm laying the price here for SEATTLE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-18-23 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Mariners/Astros. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Mariners have seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after taking three of four at KC this week. Despite their 6-4 high-scoring win yesterday, note that the Mariners have still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. The Astros took two of three at the Marlins, and the final two games did go OVER the number. Two really good teams here, each with their eyes set on a playoff spot. And two really decent starters going head-to-head, with Seattle turning to Bryce Miller (7-4, 4.04 ERA), and the home side countering with JP France (9-3, 2.74.) I say this total is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-17-23 | Red Sox v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKEIKILLER on the OVER Red Sox/Nationals. Boston has now seen the total go UNDER in seven straight after yesterday's 6-2 loss. The Red Sox though have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. After the first two games of this interleague matchup having gone UNDER the posted number, I anticipate a slug-fest finally here this afternoon. Neither starter has been terrible, but neither has been great either. Boston turns to Chris Sale (5-2, 4.52 ERA), while the home side counters with Patrick Corbin (7-11, 4.85.) Sale's win/loss record and ERA means that he's getting lots of run support this year. This number is low in my estimation, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-16-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Orioles on the RUNLINE. While I do think an outright victory is possible, I think the Orioles with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance at this price is the way to go. Baltimore took the opener by a score of 4-1, and then the Padres responded with a 10-3 victory yesterday. We have two evenly matched starters going H2H here, as Baltimore turns to Dean Kremer (11-4, 4.50 ERA), while the home side counters with Blake Snell (9-8, 2.63.) In a contest that I think will be decided late (or even in extra innings), I'm going to lay the price for BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-15-23 | Astros v. Marlins +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH on the MARLINS RUNLINE. I had a play on the Marlins on the runline in their 5-1 outright win here over the Astros, and while I do feel that they have a legitimate shot at winning tonight's contest as well, in the end my official call will be to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance for what I feel to be a very good price. Clearly, Christian Javier (8-2, 4.36 ERA) has the advantage here on paper over counterpart Johnny Cueto (0-3, 5.33), but I believe that the momentum that the Fish are currently riding is very real. Note as well that Cueto is 5-6 with a highly-repsectable 3.14 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Astros. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing MIAMI on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-14-23 | Astros v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL GOW on the MARLINS RUNLINE. Both teams are in the hunt for a wildcard spot. The Marlins just took two of three from the Yankees over the weekend and I think they offer great value to keep that momentum rolling here. The Astros have won 12 of 19 games, but I think this starting pitching matchup is very evenly matched, as Houston turns to Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.30 ERA), who in his only other start vs. the Marlins last year gave up four runs over six innings in a loss. He's coming off a fortunate no-decision as well vs. the Orioles last Tuesday, allowing six runs off eight hits over seven innings. Braxton Garrett (6-3, 4.08) gets the call for Miami here and the Marlins are 17-5 in his stats this season, most recently winning their third straight behind him in a 3-2 win over the Reds last week, he gave up two runs over six frames. The outright is possible, but the price is right here to take MIAMI on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-13-23 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Rockies/Dodgers. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this afternoon. LA has seen the total go UNDER in five straight after winning a third straight in this four-game series by a score of 4-1 yesterday. The Dodgers are remaining "in the moment" and not looking past these opportunities, having now won seven straight. Note though that LA has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Neither starter has been terrible. Neither has been fantastic. "Pedestrian" is likely the best way to describe both Kyle Freeland (4-12, 4.84 ERA) of the Rockies and Julio Urias (9-6, 4.39) of the Dodgers. I think the overall situation, combined with the numbers, all point to Sunday's contest finally being a higher-scoring "slug-fest." The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-12-23 | Rangers v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Rangers/Giants. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Texas has now seen the total go UNDER in five straight after last night's series opening 2-1 win here. Note though that the Rangers have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Giants come in desperate to reverse their fortunes, as they've dropped five of their last six, including three straight. Note though that San Fran has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Two decent starters in Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb, but this is just a case of each being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME today. The overall situation, combined with the above O/U trends makes the OVER the correct call in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-11-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Mariners | 2-9 | Loss | -168 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOOD-BATH on the Orioles. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Two hot teams here. The Orioles lost the first two vs. the Astros, then bounced back and won the finale yesterday. I was on the correct side of each of those games. Each team is in a fight for a spot in the playoffs, and each comes in equally as motivated here. The starting pitching matchup in this one is even, as Baltimore goes with Kyle Gibson (11-6, 4.50 ERA), while the home side counters with Luis Castillo (7-7, 3.21.) Yes, the Mariners are 33-26 at home, but the Orioles are 35-21 on the road. They've been consistently under-rated this year, and that's the case here in this opening game. I'm laying the price and taking BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-10-23 | Astros v. Orioles +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on the ORIOLES RUNLINE. After taking the first two games of this series, and with a home series starting tomorrow vs. the Angels, I believe Houston will get caught looking ahead. Baltimore is hungry for revenge and to stop the bleeding. So far in this series Houston has had the upper-hand in the starting pitching department, but that's now not the case here on Thursday afternoon, with the Astros going with Hunter Brown (8-7, 4.07 ERA) and the Orioles countering with Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.61.) Give me Kremer at home here in this revenge bounce-back spot. That said, ultiately I'm laying the price for the exra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-09-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUNLINE. I like standing in front of trains and predicting when a team will break a losing streak, or have an extended winning streak finally come to an end. And that's going to be the case here today in two different scenarios in my opinion. The D-Backs have lost seven straight, and their starting pitcher today Merrill Kelly is 0-10 lifetime vs. the Dodgers. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the home side on the runline option. All good things come to an end, and all losing streaks also end eventually as well. I like Arizona to snap its seven-game slide today, and Kelly (9-5, 3.21 ERA) certainly won't be lacking for motivation either. The Dodgers have won three straight, but with a four-game series at home vs. the Rockies starting tomorrow, there's reason to believe that this visiting side could get caught "looking ahead." No such luxury for the super desperate D-Backs though, who will be risking life and limb today to try and snap the slide vs. Bryce Miller (6-2, 4.26), who I believe will be overmatched by his hungry counterpart this evening. Lay this reasonable mid-sized price and grab the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-08-23 | Marlins v. Reds UNDER 10.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the UNDER Marlins/Reds. I base my picks on many different things, but here's a great situational play. Both teams are desperate for victories. The Marlins have now lost five straight after yesterday's 5-2 loss here. Note though that the Fish have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after five or more straight losses in a row. And with the win the Reds just snapped a six-game slide. They've also now seen the total go UNDER in five straight, which is signficant to note as Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. As stated off the top, a great "situational" play here on the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-07-23 | Twins -159 v. Tigers | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Twins. I'm going to lay the price and expect the surging Twins to NOT look past this opportunity, and instead come in razor focussed, ready to take advantage. Minnesota is arguably playing its best baseball of the season right now, coming in off four sraight victories, including a three-game sweep of Arizona over the weekend. The Twins now have a 4.5-game lead in the AL Central. Pablo Lopez (6-6, 4.01 ERA) has been super sharp over his last two starts and I expect him to carry that momentum over here. He'll be opposed by confirmed "gas can" Joey Wentz (2-9, 6.37), who is back in the rotation out of necessity. Wentz has struggled as a starter this season, with his opposition posting a .888 on base-plus-slugging percentage vs. him in those outings. Wentz has already lost two starts to the Twins this year, and the old saying, "the third times a charm" could not be more apt, as I do indeed expect MINNESOTA to assert itself here in the opener and beat Wentz for a third time this season in the process. Lay the price, the play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-06-23 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Dodgers/Padres. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but that's only helped in driving this Sunday total a little bit higher than it normally would or should be. Both Lance Lynn (6-9, 6.47 ERA) of the Dodgers, and Rich Hill (7-10, 4.76 ERA) of the Padres have a big chance to turn their seasons around with their respective new teams. All eyes will be on these new acquisitions and I expect a bit of a "duel" here. Note as well that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. The majority of the betting public will be quick to hammer the over, but we're going to go the other way in classic contrarian style and take the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-05-23 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Mariners/Angels. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Seattle has now seen the total go OVER the number in five straight after taking the first two games of this series, including last night's 9-7 victory. Note though that the Mariners have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. LA has now lost four straight. Note though that it's seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Two really decent starters who I'm expecting to go deep here. Seattle turns to George Kirby (9-8, 3.42 ERA), while the home side counters with Tyler Anderson (5-2, 4.98.) The overall situation, combined with the above O/U ATS stats makes the UNDER the correct call as far as the total is concerned finally. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-04-23 | Mets v. Orioles -160 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Orioles. The Mets just got swept in Kansas City and I believe they're ripe for the picking here in the opener of this one. Baltimore took three of four from the Jays over the weekend. Big time starting pitching mismatch is the main reason here though, as New York goes with David Peterson (3-7, 5.92 ERA), while the home side counters with Deam Kremer (10-4, 4.66.) Peterson hasn't lasted more than two innings in any of his last six appearances, while Baltimore is 16-6 in games Kremer has started, including 5-0 in July. Lay the price with confidence, the play is BALTIMORE! Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-04-23 | Braves v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Cubs on the runline. Two hot teams collide in Chicago today, and in what will be a highly anticipated series, I'm going to grab the home side on the runline option. For argument's sake, I'm going to classify these starters as a "wash," as Max Fried (2-1, 2.08 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while the home side turns to Kyle Hendricks (4-5, 3.49.) Fried returns finally to the Braves rotation, and while had a succesful rehab, there's no question that he's being thrown to the wolves here facing this red hot Cubs line-up. The outright is possible, the value here for sure is Chicago on the runline option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-02-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL EAST GAME OF THE YEAR on the Blue Jays. The Jays have lost three straight. They had won four of five previous to that. Now in third in the AL East, Toronto can't afford to lose anymore games to the division leader. Baltimore has taken the first two games of this series, including yesterday's in blowout fashion vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu. Note though that the Jays are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. They're also 8-4 in their last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. It's "gut check" time in Toronto. Essentially, "now or never" type of situation. Fortunately for Jays' fans (and us!), this is a completely lop-sided starting pitching matchup which I believe firmly swings the value in favor of the home side today. The Orioles hand the ball to Grayson Rodriguez (2-2, 6.21 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, while the home side counters with Yusei Kikuchi (8-3, 3.79, 1.28.) Big mismtatch here working in favor of Toronto and combined with the other external situational factors listed above, this becomes the very definition of "great line value" in my opinion. Lay the price, the play is TORONTO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-01-23 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL WEST TOW on the OVER D-Backs/Giants. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, including in Arizona's crucial 4-3 win in yesterday's series opener, but I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks tonight. Note that San Fran has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Arizona has now seen the total go UNDER in four straight as well. These starters have been great, as Zac Gallen (11-5, 3.36 ERA) of the D-Backs squares off against Alex Cobb (6-3, 2.97) of the Giants. It's just a case however of each being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME tonight. I say the overall situation points to this one eclipsing this smaller number as it gets into the latter frames. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-31-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Orioles on the runline. They say that divisional matchups are always the most important, and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. That's true in most cases, but here's an opportunity for the Orioles to continue to distance themselves from the Jays in the wildcard race. Motivationally speaking, it's equal. These starters are evenly matched as well. Baltimore turns to Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.68 ERA), while the home side counters with Chris Bassitt (10-5, 3.91.) In this evenly matched contest, the value swings to the ORIOLES on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-30-23 | Rangers v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Rangers/Padres. San Diego has won the first two games of this series, 7-1 and 4-0. Note though that Texas has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent, and in three of its last four in trying to avenge two or more straight losses vs. an opponent. We have two decent starters going head-to-head here in the Rangers' Cody Bradford (2-1, 4.62 ERA), and the Padres' Blake Snell (7-8, 2.61.) This is just a case of each being in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After getting shutdown over the first two games, I'm definitely finally expecting a response here from the vistors. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-30-23 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 11.5 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Brewers/Braves. The first two games of this series have flown OVER the number, but I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Sunday. This game means a lot more to the Brewers obviously after opening 0-2. They hand the ball to Colin Rea, who has been a consistent bright spot for Milwaukee this season witha 5-4, 4.53 ERA, 1.19 WHIP record for the Brewers. He'll be opposed by AJ Smith-Shawver, who is 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA after 16.2 innings pitched so far. Not a big sample size, but I still think he'll match Rea's effort here at home. Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent, and now finally here in the finale of this series, I feel this number is a couple points too high. The value has now swung to the UNDER as far as the total is concerned in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-29-23 | Rangers v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Rangers/Padres. Both teams have been involved in some lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. San Diego has now seen the total go UNDER in three straight after last night's 7-1 win. That's signficant to note though, as the Padres have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Neither starter has been terrible this year, but neither has been great either. Pedestrian is the perfect term to describe each players performance to this point. Martin Perez is 8-3 with a 4.91 ERA for the Rangers (a testament to the amount of run support he's received this year.) while Yu Darvish is just 7-7 with a 4.80 ERA for the Padres. I'm expecting each to "get the hook" early, and as such, all signs do point to this total going OVER the number sooner, rather than later in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-29-23 | Phillies -167 v. Pirates | 6-7 | Loss | -167 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Phillies. The Phillies are 4-1 in their last five. They're second in the NL East behind the Braves, who they won't catch. They won't catch the Dodgers either, but after that, they're in a neck and neck race with four or five other teams for the other Wildcard spots. A couple months ago, things looked a lot bleaker for the Phillies, but they've been getting healthier as the season has progressed, and that's helped in turning things around after a slow start. Pittsburgh got out to an unreal start this season, but it fell apart a month before the All Star break and the slide into mediocrity continued in last night's 2-1 series opening loss. Now with veteran Aaron Nola (9-6, 4.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) on the hill, I like the Phillies to keep the good times rolling in this favorable matchup, as he'll be opposed by Quinn Priester (1-1, 9.28.) This is a big time starting pitching matchup and everything points to a lop-sided outcome in the end. Because of that, I'm laying the price with confidence on PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-28-23 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOM on the OVER Brewers/Braves. Both sides have been playing to some lower-scoring games of late, but I believe those trends end this evening. Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER in five straight after taking two of three from the Reds earlier in the week. Note though that the Brewers have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Atlanta dropped both games vs. the Red Sox earlier in the week and it's now seen the total go UNDER in four straight. That includes in two of three vs. the Brewers prior to the series at Boston, in which the Braves went 2-1 in. These are actually two really decent starters, as Adrian Houser is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA for the Brewers, while Yonis Chirinos is 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA for the Braves. This though is just a case of each of these guys being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME. The overall situation, combined with these stats/numbers/trends all point to this one eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-27-23 | Cubs -104 v. Cardinals | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Cubs. After winning five straight, and with a chance to move back to .500, I like the Cubs to do just that this evening in St. Louis. These teams played last weekend and the Cubs went 3-1 in the four game series. The Cards can only play spoiler these days, and I just don't see them getting too excited here to try and stop the Cubs from reaching .500 today. The starting pitching matchup favors Chicago, as the Cubs hand the ball to Justin Steele, while the home side counters with Miles Mikolas. Steele is 10-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while Mikolas is is 6-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Mikolas gave up 11 hits and five runs against the Cubs last week and I think he's in for another short night tonight as well. The Cubs offense is now rated in the Top 10 and I expect that momentum to get carried over. The play is CHICAGO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-26-23 | Orioles v. Phillies -108 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Phillies. The Phillies were on the verge of defeat last night, but rallied with two outs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Orioles 3-2. Now instead of trying to avoid the series sweep, they're trying to win the series off arguably the hottest team in baseball. If any team was "due" for some regression, surely it's the Orioles. I say that Kyle Bradish (6-5, 3.05 ERA) takes a step back here as well finally in this difficult road venue. He'll be opposed by Ranger Suarez (2-5, 4.07), who I believe gets the slight advantage here because of throwing in front of the home town crowd. Philadelphia is hungry for victories, and I believe it rides the wave of emotion from last night's victory to another solid decision here in the series finale. The play is the PHILLIES. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-25-23 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOW on the UNDER Cards/D-Backs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, including in the Cardinals' 10-6 upset win at Arizona last night. St. Louis has seen the total go OVER in three straight now, but note that the Cards have seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. And Arizona has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last six in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. While only 1-7 this year for St. Louis, Steven Matz still owns a respectable 4.67 ERA and I think the veteran will be able to match his counterpart Merril Kellly, who is 9-4 with a 3.22 ERA for the Diamondbacks. I'm expecting a battle between these two veterans and when the smoke does clear at the end of this one, all signs point to it being a lower-scoring defensive UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-24-23 | Blue Jays v. Dodgers UNDER 9.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Jays/Dodgers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating more of a "duel" here finally between these interleague rivals on the West Coast here on Monday night. The Jays went 1-1 in Seattle over the weekend, while LA took two of three at the Rangers, falling 8-4 last night. All three games went OVER the number, and the Dodgers have now seen the total eclipse the posted number in six straight. Despite that though, note that LA has still seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. The Jays go with Jose Berrios, who is 8-7 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He's likely been the most consistent starter for Toronto this year. The home side counters with Michael Grove, who is just 2-2 with a 6.40 ERA. He's coming off a gem though, allowing one run over five innings while posting four K's in a 10-3 win over Baltimore. I expect these starters to battle into the latter frames, and when taking into account the rest of the above listed factors, the UNDER is for sure the correct call in my opinion as far as the total is concerned in this contest. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-23-23 | Dodgers v. Rangers UNDER 10 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the UNDER Dodgers/Rangers. The first two games of this series have flown well OVER the number in LA's two blowout victories. When faced against the best in the league, the Rangers are looking pretty pedestrian. That's the case here again today with this line, as Martin Perez is the slight dog at home here. Regardless, note that the Rangers have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. Emmet Sheehan is 3-0 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.17 WHIP for LA, while Perez is 7-3 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.50 WHIP for the Rangers. The public is quick to back another high-scoring affair in this interleague finale, but all signs finally point to a bit of a "duel" here on Sunday in my opinion. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-23-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rays | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Orioles. This has been a back and forth series so far, with each divisional foe taking one game apiece. Baltimore came into this series red hot, while the Rays have been pretty pedestrian over the last month or so. Regardless, in what I anticipate will be another tightly contested affair, one which will almost assuredly be decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to recommend to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a great starting pitching matchup working in favor of Baltimore today, as the visitors go with Tyler Wells (7-5, 3.54 ERA). The home side counters with the erratic Taj Bradley (5-6, 5.29.) The play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-22-23 | Blue Jays v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 105 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Jays/Mariners. The Mariners managed a come-from-behind 3-2 win in yesterday's series opener, but I'm expecting some more offensive fireworks here on Saturday afternoon. It's perfect weather for baseball right now in the PNW, so this normally pitcher-friendly park will be less so this afternoon. The Jays have now seen the total go UNDER in three straight, which is significant to note as Toronto has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. These are two really decent starter, with the Jays handing the ball to Kevin Gausman (7-5, 3.03 ERA), and the Mariners countering with Logan Gilbert (8-5, 3.65.) The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U trend though swings the pendulum in favor of a slightly higher-scoring game here, as I do expect this one to sneak over this tiny number after these starters make their departure. This number is a little low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-22-23 | Dodgers v. Rangers +113 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL GOW on the Rangers. The Dodgers pulled away for the 11-5 win in yesterday's series opener, but with what I feel is the superior starter on the hill for htem here, I like the Rangers to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. Note that Texas is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent. Bobby Miller is 5-1 with a 4.25 ERA for the Dodgers. He's been great, but I say he's in over his head here facing Dane Dunning of the Rangers, who is 8-2 with a 2.82 ERA this season (he's 5-0 at home.) A great situational play (and a great price,) as all signs point to TEXAS bouncing-back. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-21-23 | Braves v. Brewers +1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -146 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER SPECIAL on the Brewers. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay this price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Braves had lost four in a row before yesterday's 7-5 win. Now they face a red hot Milwaukee side that's gone 8-2 in its last ten, including just taking two of three from Philadelphia. I give the slight nod to Freddy Peralta (6-7, 4.41 ERA) here as well throwing at home over his counterpart Mike Soroka (1-1, 5.40.) Overall this is a really great line value for the home side on the runline option. The play is MILWAUKEE on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-21-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Cards/Cubs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this afternoon. The Cards have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last eight, while Chicago has seen the total go OVER in nine straight. But that's only helped in driving this total here on Friday a few points higher than it normally would be. The visitors go with Jack Flaherty, who is battle-tested at 7-5 with a 4.29 ERA, while the home side counters with Justin Steele, who is 9-3 with a 2.96 ERA. I'm anticipating a classic "duel" here early on Friday afternoon between these starters, and ultimatley that'll also help in driving this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-20-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Cardinals/Cubs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Cards have now won five straight after taking all three vs. the Marlins in their first series back from the break. Two of three went OVER the number and now St. Louis has seen the total go OVER in five of its last six. The Cubs went 2-1 in their first second-half series vs. the Nationals, and all three games went OVER the number. Chicago has now seen the total go OVER the number in eight straight. The value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. So here we have two experienced starters going head-to-head as well. Steven Matz is 0-7 for St. Louis, despite a respectable 4.86 ERA. His counterpart Marcus Stroman though is 10-6 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. I'm anticipating a classic "duel" here, and when you take into account the rest of the situational and trend-based factors listed above, they all smash together here to make the UNDER the correct call in my opinion. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-20-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rays | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ULTIMATE BEST BEST on the Orioles runline. Baltimore went into the break on a huge run, but then it dropped the first two games in the second half at home to the Dodgers. But then the Orioles bounced back with an 8-5 win in yesterday's series finale and I believe that they'll keep that momentum rolling here. The Rays continue to slide and the Orioles can smell the blood in the water after Tampa Bay lost all three games in Texas in their first series after the Mid-Summer Classic. I'll call these starters a "wash," as Kyle Gibson is 9-6 with a 4.77 ERA for the Orioles, while Tyler Glasnow is 3-3 with a 3.78 ERA for the Rays. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm backing BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-19-23 | Nationals v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL on the UNDER Nationals/Cubs. I had a play on the UNDER in the Cubs' 17-3 win last night, and while that play obviously was a loser, I do now FINALLY expect a lower-scoring "duel" here between these clubs on Wednesday. Chicago has now seen the total go OVER in seven straight, while Washignton has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five straight (and note that the Nats have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.) Trevor Williams is scheduled for the Nats, and he's 5-5 with a 4.43 ERA and 73 to 31 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He'll be opposed by Kyle Hendricks, who is 3-4 with a 3.57 ERA. We like both veterans and expect them to battle into the latter frames. For a number of different reasons, we like this one to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-19-23 | Dodgers v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the UNDER Angels/Orioles. This is a super interesting series, LA came out of the break and won the first game by a score of 6-4, and then yesterday's contest by a score of 10-3. Note that Baltimore has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. For this WEdnesday game I'm going to focus on the starting pitching, and in our opinion, these starting pitchers will be the main focus and story line once it's all said and done. These teams have been great at the plate of course this season, but they also sport some of the best pitching numbers as well, and we have two really decent starters going head to head here. The Dodgers turn to Julio Urias, who is 7-5 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He most recently scattered one hit over six scoreless innings to go along with seven strikeouts in a 4-0 victory over the Mets in his last outing. And then Orioles counter with Dean Kremer, who is 10-4 with a 4.59 ERA and 100 to 17 strikeout to walk ratio. He's also coming off a really strong outing, going six innings and allowing two hits and one run to go along with eight strikeouts. When it comes to starting pitching, there's no greater indicator to judge than "RECENT FORM," and each of these guys looks really LOCKED IN to us right now. Because of that, we're taking the UNDER in this intriguing interleague matchup on Wednesay afternoon. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-18-23 | Nationals v. Cubs UNDER 9 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Nats/Cubs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here finally this evening. The Nationals have now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after last night's 7-5 series opening win here, while Chicago has now seen the total go OVER the number in six straight (but note that the Cubs have seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.) Trevor Williams gets the nod for the visiting side and he's 5-5 with a 4.42 ERA, while Jameson Taillon is only 3-6 with a 6.15 ERA for the Cubs. Two teams hoping for something positive in the second half, and two starting pitchers looking to rebound off uncharacteristic poor first halves. When you add up all of these factors, I say we finally have ourselves a lower-scoring outcome between these teams. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-17-23 | Yankees v. Angels UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* total on the UNDER Yanks/Angels. Both teams have been playing to several higer-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. New York lost two of three at the Rockies over the weekend. Yeterday's 8-7 loss flew well OVER th enumber of 11. Note though that the Yanks have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four off an upset road loss as a -200 or greater favorite. The Angels have now seen the total go OVER the number in eight straight after losing two of three to Houston over the weekend. No one could be happier to see the second half of MLB start that Yankees' starter Luis Severino, who is 1-4 with a 7.38 ERA. Look for much better results from the veteran over the second half (is what I am definitely expecting anyways.) The home side counters with Griffin Canning, who put together a solid first half by going 6-4 with a 4.60 ERA. Everything points to a lower-scoring "duel" here on the West Coast on Monday night, so the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-17-23 | Nationals v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* total on the UNDER Nationals/Cubs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to even this evening. The Nationals have seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after dropping two of three to the Cards over the weekend. Note though that the Nats have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. The Cubs have now seen the total go OVER the number in seven straight after losing two of three to Boston this weekend, including an 11-5 setback yesterday (note though that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven off a home loss as a favorite.) McKenzie Gore is 4-7 with a 4.42 ERA for the Nats, while Drew Smyly is 7-5 with a 4.30 ERA for the Cubs. I'm expecting a duel here between these two hungry starters, and all of these different factors now come together to indeed make the UNDER the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-17-23 | Marlins v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* total on the UNDER Marlins/Cards. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Miami lost all three at Baltimore over the weekend and it's seen the total fly OVER in five of its last six overall. St. Louis has now won four of its last five. It saw all three of its totals vs. Washington fly OVER the number over the weekend, but note that the Cards have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Two very decent starters going head-to-head and I anticipate a classic "duel" here. Jesus Luzards is 8-5 with a 3.29 ERA for the Marlins, while Mike Mikolas is 5-5 with a 4.12 ERA for the Cards. Everything points to this one staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done. GOod luck, NP | |||||||
07-16-23 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER On the UNDER Astros/Angels. The first two games of this series have flown OVER the number, but I'm finally expecting more of a "duel" here on Sunday night between two highly-motivated starting pitchers. LA has now seen the total go OVER in seven straight, while the Astros have seen it go over in the first two of this series. Christian Javier has once again been a rock for the Astros this year, as he enters 7-1 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He'll be opposed by veteran Tim Anderson, who is 4-2 with a 5.25 ERA. Look for the extra time off between starts to benefit these guys and then look for this total to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-15-23 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 12-13 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Astros/Angels. Houston won yesterday's series opener by a score of 7-5, but I'm anticipating more of a defensive "duel" here on Saturday. The Angels have now seen the total go OVER the number in six straight. They've also lost six straight. Despite yesterday's high-scoring loss though, note that LA has still seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of it slast ten after five or more straight losses in a row. These two starters ere super solid over the first half, and there's no reason no to believe that consistency won't carry over here. The visitors hand the ball to Framber Valdez, who is 7-6 with a 2.51 ERA, while the home side counters with Reid Detmers, who is 2-6 with a 4.31 ERA. Everything points to a "duel," and combined with all of these other factors, the play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-14-23 | Astros v. Angels -158 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -158 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Angels. Shohei Ohtani did not pitch in the All-Star game, but batted second in the AL order. He likely would have been the starting pitcher if he did decide to take the mound. He was last year. Ohtani enters the second half with a chip on his shoulder and I think he'll just be too much for counterpart JP France and the Astros to handle. France is 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA, and overall he's been good this year, but this is just a case of the Houston starter being in the wrong place at the wrong time. With a win, LA moves back to .500 and gets the second half started off with a win in front of the home town crowd, a place where they're still a respectable 23-20 thus far. After faltering down the stretch of the first half, I'm expecting a response from the Angels here with their "ace" on the mound. Lay the price, the play is LA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-14-23 | Marlins v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Marlins/Orioles. After a big first half from both clubs, they'll be hoping that they don't suffer too much regression here in the second half. Two starters that will be instrumental in their team's success in the second half collide here on Friday night, and in my opinion runs are going to be at a premium. Sandy Alcantara is 3-7 with a 4.72 ERA for the Marlins. He closed out the first half with a solid start against the Phillies, going seven innings and posting five K's while allowing one run. I think Alcantara will have a much more consistent/typical looking second half, after struggling in the first. The Orioles counter with Deam Kremer, who is 9-4 with a 4.78 ERA. Kremer has been a consistent bright spot for the Orioles this season, he has a 95 to 24 strikeout to walk ratio, and he's 8-2 with a 4.01 ERA in all "NIGHT" games this year. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-09-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL WEST TOY on the OVER Rockies/Giants. These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Rockies are just 14-32 on the road. They're 1-1 so far in thi series, but fell 5-3 yesterday. Both games have gone UNDER the number. The Giants have now won two of three, but they've seen the total go UNDER the number in four straight. Despite that though, note that San Francisco has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Kyle Freeland is 4-9 with a 4.93 ERA for the Rockies, while Logan Webb is 7-7 with a 3.38 ERA for the Giants. A couple of decent starters to be honest, but this is just a case of each being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME. This number is low, the play is the OVER. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-08-23 | Mariners v. Astros -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Astros. This is a public play, but I still really like the Astros here, and at this price, I can't avoid playing it. Seattle is now 44-43, one game over .500 after winning six of its last seven, including the first two games of this series. Note though that Houston is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. A big starting pitching mismatch as well, as Bryan Woo is 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA for the M's, while Framber Valdez is 7-6 with a 2.49 ERA for the Astros. A letdown is imminent here for Seattle after finally getting over the .500 hump. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-08-23 | Royals v. Guardians OVER 8 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SLUG-FEST on the OVER Royals/Guardians. KC has now lost five straight; note though that the Royals have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight losses in a row. KC has also played to three straight UNDERS, which is signficant to note as well, as the Royals have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDRES in a row. Cleveland has also seen the total go UNDER in three straight now, which is important to note, as the Guardians are have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. I don't really trust either starter. The Royals go with Brady Singer, who is an uninspiring 5-7 with a 5.52 ERA. The home side counters with the little known Gavin Williams, who is 0-1 with a 3.79 ERA. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-07-23 | Royals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF MONTH on the OVER Royals/Guardians. These teams have been playing to some lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Royals have lost four straight, including the opener of this one yesterday by a score of 6-1. THey've seen the total go UNDER in two straight now, but note despite the lost yesterday, KC has still seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. Cleveland has been trading wins and losses over its last five games and has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four. Daniel Lynch is 2-3 with a 4.14 ERA for the Royals, while Aaron Civale is 2-2 with a 2.96 ERA for the Guardians. These guys have actually been decent, but this just a case of each being in the wrong place at the wrong time. A great situational play backed by strong trends. The play is the OVER. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest.) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-06-23 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
10* UNDER Cards/Marlins (NL TOM) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The total has gone OVER the number in the first four games of this four-game series. Miami has won the first three. Note that St. Louis has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge three or more straight losses against an opponent. And note that Miami has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Jack Flaherty is 5-5 with a 4.60 ERA for the Cards, while Eury Perez is 5-2 with a 2.47 ERA for Miami. Expect these two to battle deep into the latter frames, and then look for that to help in driving this total UNDER the posted number. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-05-23 | Angels v. Padres UNDER 9 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DUEL on the UNDER Angels/Padres. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Angels have seen the total go OVER in both losses here in San Diego to open this IL series, but note that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight road losses against an opponent. And San Diego has now seen the total go OVER in five of its last six. Two decent starters going head-to-head and I'm expecting them to battle into the deeper innings: The visitors go with Patrick Sandoval (4-7, 4.57 ERA), while the home side counters with Seth Lugo (3-4, 3.59.) (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-05-23 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Cubs/Brewers. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here this evening. The Cubs have seen the total go OVER in three straight now after breaking a three-game slide with a 7-6 win in the second game of this three-game series. Note though that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Milwaukee has seen the total go OVER in five straight now after yesterday's loss snapped a three-game win streak. That's also important to take note of here, as the Brewers have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. We have to exceptional starters going head-to-head, and I think they'll battle deep: Justin Steele (9-2, 2.43 ERA) gets the nod for the Cubs, while Adrian Houser (3-2, 3.88) counters for the Brewers. Everything points to a classic "duel" here, so the play is the UNDER. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-04-23 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Jays/White Sox. Toronto has lost three straight, and seen the total go OVER in two straight. Note though that the Jays have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Chicago lost two of three to Oakland over the weekend, and it's seen the total go OVER the number in five straight. That'a also significant to note as the White Sox have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs ina row. Two really decent starters going head-to-head here as well, and I expect them to go deep. Toronto goes with Chris Bassitt, who is 8-5 with a 4.06 ERA, while Chicago counters with Lucas Giolito, who is 6-5 with a 3.53 ERA. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-04-23 | Braves v. Guardians +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* WINNER on the Guardians on the runline. The saying, "all good things must come to an end," could not be more apt in this particular situation. Atlanta has been fantastic of late, winning nine in a row, but this is a clear starting pitching mismatch, and grabbing Shane Bieber on the runline option at this price is just too good to turn down in my opinion. Bieber is 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA and he posted a 2.90 ERA in five June starts. Kolby Allard (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes just his second start of the season. He threw four innings of shutout ball vs. the Twins last Wednesday. Despite that though, a huge nod goes to Bieber at home here. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-03-23 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL EAST TOY on the OVER Orioles/Yanks. It's a big AL East matchup here to open up the new week as we head towards the half way point of the season, and I believe we're in for some offensive fireworks here in the opener. Baltimore is 5.5 games back of Tampa Bay, and New York is 9.5 games back of first place in the division. Tyler Wells is 6-4 with a 3.21 ERA and 0.98 WHIP for the Orioles, while Domingo German is 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA for the Yanks. German had vien up 17 earned runs in consecutive losses to Boston and Seattle, before throwing 99 pitches and getting nine K's in an 11-0 win over the lowly A's last time out. But can anyone say immediate "letdown" spot here after that gem? It's one thing to dominate the A's this year, and quite another to do the same to the Orioles. Baltimore snapped a four-game slide with a 2-1 win over the Twins. Note that Wells is 0-4 with a 5.26 ERA in 12 career appearances vs. New York. Look for these guys to get chased early, and as such when you combine the rest of the information listed above, everything points to this one eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-03-23 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 9 | 6-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Cubs/Brewers. These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this afternoon. Chicago has lost six of its last seven after yesterday's 8-6 defeat to Cleveland. It's also seen the total go OVER in two of its last three. Milwaukee has won four of its last five afterr taking two of three from the Pirates over the weekend. The Brewers have seen the total go OVER in three straight, which is signiicant to note as Milwaukee has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head, and all signs point to these guys being the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. Drew Smyly is 7-5 with a 3.96 ERA for the Cubs, while Julio Teheran is 2-3 witha 2.85 ERA (and 0.93 WHIP), for Milwaukee. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-02-23 | Giants v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Giants/Mets. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here and now. The Giants have seen the total go UNDER in six straight. Same as the Mets after their 4-1 win last night. The bottom line is that I don't trust either starter here, as Ross Stripling is 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA, while David Peterson is 2-6 with a 7.00 ERA for the Mets. This O/U line should/could in fact be much larger in my opinion. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-01-23 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -120 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Angels. After three straight losses, including a 6-2 setback to open this interleague series, I expect the Angels to finally bounce back here on Saturday. Great price considering that they're 5-1 in their last six in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. They're also 7-3 in their last ten after three or more straight home losses in a row. Arizona goes with Ryne Nelson, who is 4-4 with a 4.97 ERA. LA counters with Tyler Anderson, who is 4-2 with a 5.54 ERA. For arguments sakes, let's call these starters a "wash." The overall situation, combined with the above listed ATS trends (and also taking into account this extremely reasonable price), however do indeed make LA the correct call here on Saturday night. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-01-23 | Giants v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SLUG-FEST on the OVER Giants/Mets. These teams have been playing to some rather lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting some offensive fireworks here finally on Saturday afternoon. San Francisco snapped a two-game slide with a 5-4 come from behind win here yesterday and it's now seen the total go UNDER in five straight. Note though that the Giants have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last six after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Mets have seen the total go UNDER in five straight as well. They've lost five of their last six as well. Two teams in need of a win here face two starters whose efforts this season could best be described as: "pedestrian." Anthony DeSclafani is 4-7 with a 4.28 ERA for the Giants, while Justin Verlander is 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA for the Mets. The situation and numbers all point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-30-23 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Twins/Orioles. Both teams had Thursday off. Both teams are in need of a victory here and we think that's going to help in translating into some offensive production on the diamond. Minnesota enters off three straight losses at Atlanta, and all three games went UNDER the number. Note that the Twins have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after three or more straight losses in a row, and in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. They've also seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after getting shutout in their previous game. Baltimore lost two of three here at home to Cincinnati, including an 11-7 setback in the finale. Pablo Lopez is 3-5 with a 4.41 ERA for the Twins, and he's 0-2 with a 4.59 ERA in eight total "night" games this season. He'll be opposed by Dean Kremer, who is 8-3 with a 4.50 ERA. He's been solid. So has Lopez for the most part. This is just a case of these guys being in the wrong place at the wrong time. And that's how I see this one breaking down. Expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
ProSportsPicks | $1,066 |
Jack Jones | $960 |
Big Al McMordie | $876 |
Ross Benjamin | $740 |
Ray Monohan | $702 |
Jimmy Boyd | $424 |
Nick Parsons | $414 |
Ricky Tran | $343 |
Kyle Hunter | $265 |
Matt Fargo | $175 |