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PREMIUM PICKS & BEST BETS
|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-03-19||Patriots -2 v. Rams||13-3||Win||100||43 h 40 m||Show|
Noteworthy line movements in the NFL are typically correct. A three point line move from the initial Super Bowl offering to the Patriots is for proper reason. Towards the tail end of the season the Patriots utilize their defense to pick up their offense. Now in the playoffs the offense has met the defense to create a better team than last year’s run. Meanwhile the Rams injuries with Kupp/Gurley have diminished the offense. As great as the defense is they’re susceptible to both the run/pass. Look for the Patriots to squeeze out another Super Bowl title to the Belichick/Brady dynasty.
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs -3||37-31||Loss||-115||44 h 21 m||Show|
During Tom Brady’s Father Time era he has produced to a high degree especially without Peyton Manning in his way. Sunday is a different story though as the Patriots will not host the AFC Championship. That’s a big key as Tom Brady and the Patriots are just 1-4 on the road in the AFC since 2005. Look for Andy Reid and the Chiefs to have the offensive production to protect quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Grab the Chiefs.
|01-20-19||Rams +3.5 v. Saints||26-23||Win||100||41 h 46 m||Show|
The Saints turn around a week ago was brilliant from a defensive view. Yet the offense still has not been the same as it was through late November. The same can be said for the LA Rams who’ve limited Jared Goff’s passing and relied heavily on a ground attack. Look for more the Rams to get Goff going early and for the ground attack that the Eagles did not have to carry the Rams in the second half. Take the points here.
|01-13-19||Eagles +9.5 v. Saints||14-20||Win||100||44 h 42 m||Show|
The Philadelphia Eagles had the game that every big seed in March Madness has that does well. They survived a game they should have lost against the Chicago Bears. Now they’ll get new life with a prime matchup against a Saints team that blew them out 48-7. Since that game both teams have gone in different directions. While the Eagles still don’t have top notch personnel defensively they’ve grown enough to trust in this tough spot. Back the Eagles here.
|01-13-19||Chargers v. Patriots -4||28-41||Win||100||40 h 6 m||Show|
Throughout the final leg of the NFL season the discussion of the Patriots has been Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski’s decline. While the offense has not been stellar guess which unit has? Their defense. Aside from the crazy game against Miami the Patriots defense has surrendered 17 points or less since mid-November. That’s a big key against a Chargers team continuing an East coast road playoff round for the second consecutive week. Grab the value on the Patriots.
|12-30-18||Bears +5.5 v. Vikings||24-10||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
Most of the games that have NFL playoff implications are slotted in the afternoon slots. With that being said the team needing to win to get in are the Minnesota Vikings. They’ll face a Chicago Bears team that likely knows off the bat that they aren’t going to hurdle the Rams for a bye week. That’s boosted the line too high on the Vikings side. Grab the value on the Bears.
|12-23-18||Chiefs -1 v. Seahawks||31-38||Loss||-125||46 h 14 m||Show|
The Seattle Seahawks continue to be small number underdogs or favorites at home. That’s a sign of their team not having much of an identity. During their five game win streak they found ways late to prevail to victory. Last week it finally bit them as they lost in overtime against San Francisco. Sometimes it takes a loss as such for the pendulum of confidence to settle in. Look for the Chiefs to be better prepared after a couple of rusty weeks minus Kareem Hunt.
|12-23-18||Bears v. 49ers +4.5||14-9||Loss||-105||42 h 58 m||Show|
San Francisco suddenly has has found an offensive package that works for quarterback Nick Mullens. They’ll face a Chicago Bears team that has won seven of eight games and has covered in all victories (10) but one game. That’s created value similar to the small road number the Bears were in a loss to the Giants. Grab San Francisco whom seems to be riding the same end of season wave they had a year ago with Jimmy Garrapollo.
|12-17-18||Saints -6.5 v. Panthers||12-9||Loss||-100||101 h 58 m||Show|
A five game losing streak has left the Carolina Panthers from a likely playoff team to a what-if season. A tough five game stretch featured four of five road games. Yet overall the Panthers have been a great home team at 5-1 which likely downgraded Monday’s spread. In a division rivalry game look for the value to be on a Saints team that is oblivious to any opponents dire situations. Grab New Orleans.
|12-16-18||Eagles +11.5 v. Rams||30-23||Win||100||77 h 4 m||Show|
Issues with the Eagles have been visible all season long. Lacking an impact runner due to injuries the offense has not looked the same. Now it appears Carson Went will sit out the final two games with the Eagles playoff chances slim. With the LA Rams coming off a loss one would expect the Rams to respond strongly. Yet look for the Eagles to show some pride. Nick Foles is similar to Ryan Fitzpatrick in the fact that he can produce in spot start opportunities. Grab the Eagles.
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears +3||6-15||Win||100||49 h 2 m||Show|
This is a spot where a young team can grow within the season from a Chicago Bears stand point. In a similar spot the Bears stormed out to a sizable lead against the New England Patriots only to lose their composure in small areas (special teams, turnovers, etc). With Mitch Trubisky returning rust is expected but look for the Bears defense to continue being opportunistic. Grab Chicago.
|12-09-18||Lions -2.5 v. Cardinals||17-3||Win||100||45 h 8 m||Show|
On the year the Arizona Cardinals have been a solid team ATS. They’re one of the few teams that have been able to accomplish this with a poor record. After last week’s outright win against the Packers their value is sky high. With the Lions poor road record and tailspin season this is a tough spot to assess, especially with the Cardinals new found rushing attack. Yet look for the Lions to get some balance going for four quarters and defeat Arizona.
|12-09-18||Steelers v. Raiders +11||21-24||Win||100||45 h 7 m||Show|
The Pittsburgh Steelers suddenly find themselves with their backs against the walls. Two straight losses and three straight wins by the Ravens have made the AFC North very interesting. While the Raiders are still abysmal on both sides of the ball they’re starting to show signs of fight. The ability to play spoiler should keep this team in another game on a high spread. Grab the Raiders.
|12-03-18||Redskins v. Eagles -6||13-28||Win||100||7 h 43 m||Show|
At no point this season have the Eagles looked like prior Super Bowl champions. They’ve struggled to generate the same offense under the same scheme and defensively they’re not the same. They’ll take on a Washington Redskins team that has equal incentive to win with playoff hopes riding on tonight. Extra rest is tied into the Redskins MNF spread similar to their MNF matchup against the Saints (Off a bye week). Look for similar results as the Redskins have been a team ready to crumble for weeks. Grab Philadelphia.
|12-02-18||Chargers +3 v. Steelers||33-30||Win||100||26 h 55 m||Show|
Both the Chargers and Steelers have a common loss on their resume in losing to Denver. Aside from each loss both have ripped off big win streaks. In a potential playoff wild card matchup look for the Chargers to continue their upper level play on the road. Overall they’re 4-1 on the road and also have a home London win on their belt. Look for the Chargers to find plenty of offense on the Steelers defense similar to the way the KC Chiefs spread offense attacked. Grab LA
|12-02-18||49ers +11 v. Seahawks||16-43||Loss||-128||22 h 1 m||Show|
The injury ravaged San Francisco 49ers have not been effective ATS. That’s not the norm for a team getting points on a weekly basis. Yet this week’s matchup bodes advantageous for the 49ers. Value factors are available with the 49ers heavy road travel. They’re coming off a trip to Tampa Bay, Florida and now will go into the always difficult Seahawks Century Link Field. The Seahawks recent big wins are a bit misleading as they’ve been in difficult holes. Look for that to be a catalyst in a 49ers cover. Grab San Francisco
|12-02-18||Jets +8 v. Titans||22-26||Win||100||22 h 40 m||Show|
It’s hard to believe that the Jets were once a .500 team near the mid-season point at 3-3. Five straight losses have all been linked to ATS results as well. After last week’s near cover it showcased just how poor the Jets talent is offensively. Many would expect the Titans to storm over the Jets but the Titans have a look of a team that’s shaken. Tough losses on the year including a failed two point conversion against the Chargers and consecutive division losses are gut wrenching. Grab the value on the Jets.
|11-25-18||Packers v. Vikings -3||17-24||Win||100||25 h 6 m||Show|
The second matchup of the season between the Packers and Vikings will be on Sunday Night football. This is a do or die matchup for both the Vikings and Packers as each team has to make a run to get into the post-season. While many are use to Aaron Rodgers willing his team after an average start times are changing. Look for the Vikings depth and prime time devalue (2 SNF losses) to play into the hands of the small favorite. Grab Minnesota.
|11-25-18||Cardinals v. Chargers -13||10-45||Win||100||21 h 52 m||Show|
Off a poor loss to the Broncos signs are that the Chargers may revert to the pattern of seasons past. Yet the NFL is a new style game that bodes to the advantage of the Chargers ATS Sunday against the Cardinals. The safe Cardinals passing offense under new OC Byron Leftwich appears to be hitting a bit of a wall. Look for the Chargers to be aggressive defensively and for a big day for the Chargers.
|11-22-18||Falcons +13 v. Saints||17-31||Loss||-130||7 h 49 m||Show|
The Atlanta Falcons disappointing season has finally crossed over to value depreciation. On a short week they’ll take on a Saints team that has shown no mercy against countless opponents including last year’s Super Bowl champion in the Philadelphia Eagles. The dismantling of the Eagles on a high number forced the oddsmakers hands on a short week. Look for Atlanta to show signs of a divisional team and cover a high number.
|11-18-18||Vikings v. Bears -1||20-25||Win||100||24 h 17 m||Show|
Coming off a bye week the NFC North race can be swung a tad with Sunday Night football’s matchup between the Vikings and Bears. From a strength of schedule standpoint oddsmakers have not been fooled by the Bears. Their lone win against a quality opponent came in week two against the Seahawks, and their 3-straight wins came against the Jets, Bills, and Lions. Yet there is a moment to swing a division and give a new team momentum. The Vikings still have ATS value attraction based on last year’s strong run but look for the Bears to add a cushion to the division.
|11-18-18||Broncos +7 v. Chargers||23-22||Win||100||20 h 3 m||Show|
Growing momentum ATS has continued to pick up for the Chargers. Beyond the mid-season it can be hard for bettors to gravitate towards a team. Well the Chargers have rolled off six straight wins and covered five in a row. After four straight games on the road one would expect a team rolling to continue at home. Yet look for the Broncos and their inner divisional knowledge of the Chargers to keep this closer than oddsmakers think. Grab the Broncos.
|11-18-18||Raiders +6 v. Cardinals||23-21||Win||100||20 h 2 m||Show|
Since changing over and firing offensive coordinator Mike McCoy the Cardinals have looked much better. New OC Byron Leftwich has blended the offense for proper play calls to aide rookie Josh Rosen. A comeback win over San Francisco and a tough loss to the KC Chiefs showcased that the Cardinals are playing harder. That can’t be said for the Oakland Raiders whom have looked poor in every possible phase. Yet this is a spot where the Raiders personnel is not over whelmed talent-wise. Grab the value on Oakland.
|11-11-18||Cowboys +8.5 v. Eagles||27-20||Win||100||48 h 2 m||Show|
The Dallas Cowboys hit a team low point losing to the Tennessee Titans off their bye week. A defense that had been strong most of the year failed to get off the field and the offense continued its woes. They’ll face an Eagles team that for the third time this season will have extra days of preparation (2 Thursday games/Bye Week). That’s a factor into this spread as well as the Cowboys abysmal 0-4 record. Grab the Cowboys.
|11-11-18||Dolphins v. Packers -10||12-31||Win||100||44 h 5 m||Show|
The Packers did not get any scheduling benefits with their criss cross consecutive games against the Patriots and Rams. They’ll face a Dolphins team that has a bit of confidence at 5-4 with a sound home performance win over the Jets. This is where the early season high lines of the Packers finally sways to their advantage. Even off their high mileage consecutive road games expect the Packers defense to hunker down and limit a Dolphins offense that’s struggled on the road. Grab Green Bay.
|11-05-18||Titans +6 v. Cowboys||28-14||Win||100||93 h 44 m||Show|
The Dallas Cowboys showed enough before their bye week to believe they’re a team turning the corner. An unfortunate loss to Washington happens in inner divisional play. As poor as the Titans have been offensively this season one can expect it to be difficult to score against the Dallas defense. Yet this Titans team is also under rated defensively and should be able to gut out a tough road performance. Grab the underdog Titans.
|11-04-18||Rams v. Saints +2||35-45||Win||100||65 h 53 m||Show|
There are certain teams that have a look mid-season that may be their peak form. The New Orleans Saints are at that point. Defensively they’ve sharped up from last year’s issues against the Rams and their playoff exit against the Vikings. The undefeated Rams will be able to throw different defensive looks to keep the Saints offense at bay. Yet it’s the defensive improvements that give the Saints the edge. Grab the Saints to give the Rams their first loss of the season.
|11-04-18||Texans v. Broncos||19-17||Loss||-117||65 h 33 m||Show|
Nothing has been pretty with the Denver Broncos offensively this season aside from Philip Lindsay. At this juncture don’t be surprised to see Denver rotate their offensive mindset to what was working in the second half against the Chiefs. More runs versus risky throws from quarterback Case Keenum. The Texans five straight wins coupled with extra rest from a Thursday victory pose as value for the home Broncos. Grab Denver.
|11-04-18||Chargers +1 v. Seahawks||25-17||Win||100||65 h 33 m||Show|
Sometimes teams can get a dose of their own medicine in a quick scenario. The Seahawks took advantage of their bye week to script out a great game plan offensively and defensively against the Lions. Now they’ll face a Chargers team that has ample time post bye week and has an under rated element as they’ve been masked by the Chiefs start. LA’s balance offensively and defensively is not mind blowing but they’ve found a way to thrive with Rivers controlling his turnovers. Grab the Chargers as oddsmakers placed high value on the Seahawks home strength that has featured just a two-point loss to the Rams.
|11-04-18||Lions +5 v. Vikings||9-24||Loss||-105||61 h 30 m||Show|
The Minnesota Vikings are a team that are showing a bit of weakness signs. At this time last year they were going upward with Case Keenum under center. One would expect the same in the signing of veteran Kirk Cousins but that has not been the case. Although the Lions performed woefully post against the Seahawks one has to give the Seahawks credit for a post bye week game plan. Grab the value here on the Lions.
|11-04-18||Falcons v. Redskins -1||38-14||Loss||-123||61 h 29 m||Show|
Certain teams have a lull ATS yearly hangover to the public and sharps. That team is the Atlanta Falcons. A near Super Bowl champ two years ago to a divisional round exit last year. With many of the same pieces on both sides of the ball things just have not been the same. Even coming off a bye week the value remains on the Redskins. This is a team that has found a way to win games late and is under valued at home. Grab the Redskins.
|11-04-18||Jets +3 v. Dolphins||6-13||Loss||-117||61 h 29 m||Show|
During a short week the Dolphins defense suffered mightily against the Texans potent offense. That should change this week against a Jets offense that did very little in a road spot last week against the Bears. Marking his fourth consecutive start for the Fish will be Brock Osweiler whom has looked comfortable under center at home. Miami’s early season road win at the Jets coupled with the Jets plethora of injuries poses as value on the Dolphins. Yet look for the Jets to shake off last week’s rust and attack a Miami defense that appears to be worsening as the season stretches on.
|11-01-18||Raiders v. 49ers +1||3-34||Win||100||2 h 35 m||Show|
Key line movement has occurred based on the San Francisco 49ers starting a third string quarterback with zero experience. Simplified analysis presents this as value on the Raiders as this game is of course being played in the Bay Area. Yet I believe this gives Kyle Shanahan a chance to open up his offense a bit more against a porous Raiders defense. Without film on Mullins this poses as an advantage to the 49ers on a buy down spread. Grab the 49ers.
|10-28-18||49ers -1 v. Cardinals||15-18||Loss||-105||42 h 47 m||Show|
Undoubtedly the value decline on the Arizona Cardinals is near an all time low. Yet it’s not as far down as it can go. Expected improvement is clear this week as they’ve stepped away from offensive coordinator Mike McCoy and have given the job to Byron Leftwich. They’re also facing a 49ers team that lost outright as four point favorites to Arizona earlier in the season. As banged up as the 49ers are, this should be a sloppy affair that is winnable for the 49ers late. Grab San Francisco.
|10-28-18||Jets +8 v. Bears||10-24||Loss||-105||38 h 21 m||Show|
The Bears offense at home this year has been a juggernaut. Explosive points against the Seahawks, Buccaneers, and last week against the Patriots. The Jets are not only banged up at wide receiver but they’re also hurting at the running back position. That’s going to put a high burden on the Jets rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold in a tough road environment. After faltering at home against the Vikings this seems like a poor spot for the Jets. Yet the Bears are beginning to have issues with turnovers and sloppy defense. Those aren’t issues that evaporate in one week. Look for the Jets to capitalize on improper market line movement.
|10-22-18||Giants v. Falcons -4||20-23||Loss||-103||71 h 49 m||Show|
There are few teams at 2-4 that have been discounted as poorly as the Falcons have. On the year they’ve shown nothing trustworthy to back them, yet neither have the struggling Giants. Atlanta’s injuries at tailback and at kicker drove this line down as well as the Giants coming off a Thursday game. With no changes being made with Eli Manning nothing is going to change on the field. Expect the Falcons to show some of their prior Super Bowl pedigree as they take advantage of the Giants.
|10-21-18||Bills v. Colts -7||5-37||Win||100||40 h 35 m||Show|
The Colts thus far this season have not been a trustworthy team ATS. From opening week melting down against Cincinnati to last week’s road debacle against the Jets. Yet this week will mark Andrew Luck’s seventh start since returning from injury. The offense has looked much improved and he should tone down his turnovers this week against Buffalo. Veteran quarterbacks getting starts sometimes are too over valued and that is the case here with Derek Anderson. Grab the Colts
|10-21-18||Browns +3.5 v. Bucs||23-26||Win||100||40 h 35 m||Show|
Cleveland travels on the road after a putrid home performance against the Chargers. Rebounding back from such a brutal loss is tough for a team down weapons at the wide receiver position and also one relying on a rookie quarterback. Adding fuel to the fire was the Browns recent trade of top back Carlos Hyde. Now another rookie steps into the fold in tailback Nick Chubb. That’s value for a Browns team that faces a Bucs team that always leaves the door open with self driven miscues. Grab the Browns.
|10-21-18||Patriots v. Bears +3||38-31||Loss||-110||40 h 34 m||Show|
The Bears are a team that arguably are one of the most improved teams from last season to this year. That makes it very hard to dictate their proper line value. Case in point a poor road line against both the Dolphins and Cardinals haunted bettors. At home though they’re a higher grade team that bookmakers have failed to catch up on. On their resume is a stout victory over the Seahawks and a blowout win over the Bucs. With the Patriots rolling this forced the hand on a bad line. Grab the Bears to keep within the number.
|10-18-18||Broncos -1 v. Cardinals||45-10||Win||100||22 h 21 m||Show|
Several key factors make the Broncos a solid Thursday play. For one they’ve been horrid on the road this year at 0-2. Furthermore in three consecutive weeks they’ve been ripped apart on the ground game as the Chiefs, Jets, and Rams have ran for near or over 200 yards each game. Yet look for Denver to be in better shape here as Arizona tries to protect their rookie quarterback in Josh Rosen. That should allow the defense to be more aggressive and give their team an added edge. Grab Denver.
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots -3.5||40-43||Loss||-109||1 h 56 m||Show|
Rarely do you see a 5-0 team an underdog especially with a decisive victory under their belt from last year. Folks haven’t forgot the way the Chiefs tore apart Tom Brady and company to start the season in 2017. Yet 365 days later look for better defense from the Patriots and for the Chiefs to come down to Earth a bit offensively. The only team to take advantage of the Chiefs defense was the Steelers in the second quarter of week two. This go around look for Brady and company to stay focused and to the game plan for four quarters.
|10-14-18||Rams v. Broncos +7||23-20||Win||100||40 h 50 m||Show|
The Denver Broncos are coming off one of the worst road defeats of the season last week against the Jets. Flat offensively and no answer for the Jets ground attack are recipes for disaster against the potent Rams. In the last two weeks the Broncos have surrendered over 350 yards on the ground. Yet there is value on them similar to when they faced the undefeated Chiefs at home. The Rams defense has not been the same. Expect the Broncos to ride their tailbacks and fortune on defense to ride this cover out.
|10-14-18||Chargers +1 v. Browns||38-14||Win||100||37 h 45 m||Show|
Each and every week the Browns have done what bettors love. Cover. They have covered every game this season with one push against the Raiders. Baker Mayfield and the rush attack has been the story along with a defense that is improving. A third home game in four weeks should pose as a momentum builder for the Browns. Instead one has to look at their miscues and believe that they’ll finally come out against them. Grab the road Chargers here.
|10-14-18||Bears v. Dolphins +3.5||28-31||Win||100||37 h 45 m||Show|
The Miami Dolphins were a fourth quarter away from being 4-1. Instead they unraveled offensively and let the Bengals over run them. Now they’ll face a Chicago Bears team that had the biggest blowout this season with a 48-10 victory over the Buccaneers. Yet there is value to be had with the Dolphins based on the Bears bye week. Look for Ryan Tannehill’s health and return from a year off to finally start to pay dividends. Grab the fish.
|10-14-18||Panthers v. Redskins +1||17-23||Win||100||37 h 44 m||Show|
The Redskins are as banged up as any team possibly could be that has already utilized a bye week. Several starters will be missing on defense and offense which showcased a poor effort as a whole on Monday Night football. Still the matchup against the Panthers is favorable as Carolina is known to play to the level of their competition. Look for Alex Smith and company to get back to over .500.
|10-07-18||Cowboys v. Texans -3||16-19||Push||0||48 h 33 m||Show|
The 1-3 Houston Texans will face the in-state Dallas Cowboys in prime time. While Dallas won’t have to travel far they’ll face a Houston Texans team that’s showing upward signs. Offensively DeShaun Watson appears to be getting back into form from last years season ending injury. Defensively look for the Texans to be ready to limit a Dallas Cowboys team that’s struggled at sustaining offense for four quarters.
|10-07-18||Rams -7 v. Seahawks||33-31||Loss||-115||44 h 39 m||Show|
Year after year we’ve seen oddsmakers chase a team’s number and fall short. That appears to be the case for the LA Rams whose road and home number just has not been strong enough. They’ll take on a Seahawks team that on paper is 2-2. A play here or a play there and they could easily be 4-0 with losses against the Broncos-Bears. Yet one could also say their two wins against the Cowboys-Cardinals were fortunate. While the Seahawks haven’t shown any signs of who they are the Rams have. They’re not going to sputter and allow the Seahawks home crowd to get into this. Grab the Rams.
|10-07-18||Broncos v. Jets||16-34||Win||100||40 h 14 m||Show|
The Jets will be without their defensive coordinator who is ill and have sputtered three straight weeks. Consecutive weeks as a public-sharp side against the Dolphins-Browns did not hit pay dirt. Extended rest to face the Jaguars proved to not pay dividends. Back home they should bode better against a Denver Broncos team that did not play well in their lone road game against the Ravens. Grab the Jets as Sam Darnold makes enough plays with his arm to boost the Jets.
|09-30-18||Saints v. Giants +3.5||33-18||Loss||-110||69 h 58 m||Show|
The Giants have notoriously been a poor team at home ATS. They’ll face a Saints team that has been nearly unstoppable offensively for three weeks. They lit up the Buccaneers in a week one loss, had yards galore against the Browns, and hardly punted against the Falcons. Many may expect a Giants team returning from consecutive road games in Texas to experience rust. Yet, look for enough spark plays from the Giants and for the first outdoor game of the season to affect the Saints. Grab the Giants.
|09-30-18||Browns +3 v. Raiders||42-45||Push||0||69 h 37 m||Show|
Desperation for NFL teams usually translates ATS. Considering the Raiders have been in winnable games each and every week, this would seem like a perfect spot to back them. Yet they’re facing a Cleveland Browns team that was very similar to them a year ago. In games each and every week but falling short. After a taste of a victory against the Jets look for the Browns to continue an unforeseen period ATS success. Grab Cleveland.
|09-30-18||Dolphins +7 v. Patriots||7-38||Loss||-119||66 h 32 m||Show|
Miami has been one of the sloppiest weekly winners in the NFL. None of their wins have been stellar and two were at home against the Titans/Raiders. From an Xs and Os stand point the Patriots have been able to shred the Dolphins for years. It could happen Sunday as well but oddsmakers aren’t going to give out free money here. Look for the Dolphins to finish inside the number here even if down double digits most of the game.
|09-23-18||Bears v. Cardinals +7||16-14||Win||100||95 h 28 m||Show|
Through two games the Arizona Cardinals have been outclassed on their home field by the Redskins and LA Rams. Aside from the Buffalo Bills they’re the only team in football that has not been in the same stratosphere as the oddsmaker’s line. The Bears defense attacked and sacked Russ Wilson several times and put the game away with a pick six. Yet, the Cardinals are one of those teams that needed some time outside of the pre-season to gel in the regular season. Expect a better performance and a home cover on a steep line.
|09-23-18||Broncos v. Ravens -5||14-27||Win||100||92 h 3 m||Show|
Denver has shown just enough balance offensively and defensively to offset miscues. Victories over the Seahawks and Raiders came with stellar execution in both fourth quarters. The jury is still out on the Ravens whom seem to be lacking an identity offensively and were torched defensively week two by the Bengals. Yet look for the Ravens defense to keep the carry over issues of turnovers by Case Keenum going. Grab the Ravens minus the points.
|09-23-18||Saints v. Falcons -3||43-37||Loss||-105||92 h 3 m||Show|
The New Orleans Saints escaped week two with a victory over the Cleveland Browns. Now they’ll travel to face their first division opponent of the year in the Atlanta Falcons. Strength of schedule has a large factor in this slim point spread by oddsmakers. Atlanta has faced the defending champion and a tough Carolina Panthers team while the Saints have faced Tampa Bay-Cleveland. Yet look for the Saints to continue to get in their own way, grab the Falcons here.
|09-17-18||Seahawks v. Bears -3||17-24||Win||100||73 h 27 m||Show|
When a team that had such a strong run such as the Seahawks struggles, it takes time for oddsmakers to adjust. Market value is not known for the Seahawks and is growing for the Bears. That represents an edge on the Bears side for Monday. Anticipate the three quarters of strong play presented by the Bears week one to carry over at home Monday. Grab Chicago.
|09-16-18||Giants +3 v. Cowboys||13-20||Loss||-102||50 h 33 m||Show|
Yearly the Giants and Cowboys are showcased on Sunday night football and we get it again for week two. New York as a whole has been awful ATS but has managed to stay in games. Dallas on the other hand is in a pressure situation to produce. Falling 0-2 is not where you would expect a team that looked so dynamic just two years ago. Yet, the Giants have upgraded at positions and should get enough from Eli to cover this small number. Grab the Giants.
|09-16-18||Chiefs +5 v. Steelers||42-37||Win||100||42 h 13 m||Show|
Finding value early in the NFL season is tricky. Yet for the Chiefs it lies in multiple areas. First, they were destroyed last year in Sunday Night football by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Second, they’re one of the few teams in football that are starting off with two road games. Last, they’re facing a Pittsburgh team that needs to erase the memory of last week’s tie. Holdouts don’t get discussed ATS but look for Le’Veon Bell’s absence to continue to affect them against the number.
|09-09-18||Seahawks v. Broncos -2.5||24-27||Win||100||43 h 11 m||Show|
The Seattle Seahawks made a plethora of moves to get their roster younger. Yet they still have key veterans in Earl Thomas, Russ Wilson, and Doug Baldwin. Denver on the other hand has been a revolving circle for starting quarterbacks and will have Case Keenum under center. Their decision to start Royce Freeman a third round rookie is one of the more under valued ATS movers for Sunday. His ability to hit the hole will aide Keenum in hitting the veteran Broncos receivers. Grab Denver.
|09-09-18||Bengals v. Colts -1||34-23||Loss||-128||40 h 47 m||Show|
Andrew Luck’s nearly year and a half away from football is one that should be proceeded with caution. No doubt the Colts will simplify the offense in order to protect their quarterback from taking unnecessary hits. On the flip side the Bengals have the assets and weapons to attack a Colts defense that has always been vulnerable. Yet, this is where the draw back of retaining Marvin Lewis will lurk. Grab the Colts to capitalize on the 50/50 plays and come out over the number.
|09-09-18||Bills +8 v. Ravens||3-47||Loss||-110||40 h 46 m||Show|
Whenever you see a plethora of people pour on a teams poor roster and future prospects it’s usually a value indicator. Nearly everyone and their mom has been down on the Bills season win total as their quarterback situation looks like the worst in football. Yet sometimes moving forward with youth at the position upgrades the roster as a whole. On the other side Baltimore has been an ATS favorite of sharps-public since their commonality Super Bowl run in 2012. Roster upgrades were done in the off-season and the familiarity of Joe Flacco-Harbaugh still exists. Yet look for the Bills to hang around in this one with enough offensive plays to cover. Grab Buffalo.
|01-07-18||Panthers v. Saints -6.5||26-31||Loss||-112||42 h 13 m||Show|
It’s rare to see two teams at 11-5 in the wild card round. Yet, a deep NFC has caused an NFC South matchup. This of course will be the third meeting between the teams with the Saints dominating both over the Panthers. While the Saints went just 3-3 to finish out the season, they have the edge on both sides of the football to handle the Panthers one more time. This line likely would be higher if it were not for the Panthers strong regular season and Super Bowl appearance just two seasons ago. The notion of a team having difficulty beating a team three times won’t be the case here. Grab the Saints.
|12-31-17||Bills v. Dolphins +3||22-16||Loss||-120||40 h 7 m||Show|
Two teams with division familiarity will square off in the AFC East in the Bills and Dolphins. Buffalo has motivation to finish above .500. Their quarterback in Tyrod Taylor also will be showcasing his skillset as it doesn’t appear that he will remain a Bill. With these two teams just meeting two weeks ago value may appear to be on Buffalo. Yet grab the value on the Dolphins who have a young roster improving heading into 2018.
|12-24-17||Browns v. Bears -6.5||3-20||Win||100||44 h 39 m||Show|
Examining both the Bears and Browns will offer many comparisons. Both have been in numerous games only to fall apart late. Attraction for the Browns to not go winless is something bettors continue to chase. Yet there has been no balance of play calls offensively which has only become worse with Josh Gordon’s return. This should play into the Bears hands which has been a top five team at sticking to their game plans under John Fox. Look for their discipline and hunger to get a strong win to payoff ATS.
|12-24-17||Broncos +3.5 v. Redskins||11-27||Loss||-110||44 h 38 m||Show|
Under the radar entering the season oddsmakers placed high priority of a slanted home number against the Washington Redskins. After all they had been a juggernaut ATS in prior seasons. That changed for the first two and a half months of this season. That caused a dip in market value by oddsmakers which the Redskins have capitalized on in consecutive home covers. Denver is a team in the same boat. A downgraded offense and defense resulted in nine eight straight ATS losses. Bypass the pendulum shift of oddsmakers and the Broncos holiday road travels. They’ll cover the number for the third straight week.
|12-23-17||Vikings -8 v. Packers||16-0||Win||100||27 h 9 m||Show|
The decision to shut down Aaron Rodgers was a proper decision by Green Bay management . Uplifting play witnessed in prior weeks by the wide receivers and running backs came as a product of great matchups. Sunday is not one as Minnesota has been a strong force for several seasons against Green Bay. Earlier this season against the Vikings Brett Hundley was confused to the point that Mike McCarthy over simplified the play calls. Look for the Vikings to capitalize again defensively and sure up their offense before the playoffs.
|12-17-17||Rams +2.5 v. Seahawks||42-7||Win||100||42 h 30 m||Show|
Both the Rams and Seahawks are coming off tough losses in week fourteen. Returning home the Seahawks will hope to build on the newfound offense that Russ Wilson has been the catalyst as recently. For the Rams they hope to avoid being swept by a Seahawks team that limited them to just ten points. Curiously in the opening line for this matchup oddsmakers avoided the Seahawks home field advantage over the years. Look for the Rams to take advantage of implementing a better offensive blueprint against a Seahawks team that has masked injuries for over a month.
|12-17-17||Dolphins v. Bills -3||16-24||Win||100||38 h 25 m||Show|
From an offensive standpoint the Buffalo Bills have been as poor as any team over the last month. At their worst the Bills were blown out by an average of 26 points weeks eight through eleven. Yet, even with below average offense the Bills have managed to win two of their last three games. With the Dolphins coming off their biggest win of the season against the Patriots look for the Bills home advantage (5-2) to pay dividends.
|12-16-17||Bears v. Lions -4.5||10-20||Win||100||18 h 54 m||Show|
A month ago the Lions found themselves down 17-7 before mounting a comeback win over the Bears. It was a game that the Bears let get away as they outplayed the Lions. Last week the Bears ended a five game skid with a dominating road win over the Bengals. Although the Lions have been wildly inconsistent the Bears new look offense of a week ago will not carry over in the division. Grab the Lions.
|12-10-17||Cowboys v. Giants +4||30-10||Loss||-110||37 h 4 m||Show|
One of the poorer lines this season was Dallas as a slight home favorite against the Giants. That’s a factor Sunday along with the Giants story line. For the second time in four weeks they traveled to California. Heavy miles returning home amidst their coach getting fired is distracting. Yet, it’s the Cowboys that have the pressure on them. At 6-6 they need to keep winning to stay in the playoff hunt. Look for a spirited effort from the Giants and a Sunday cover.
|12-10-17||49ers v. Texans -2.5||26-16||Loss||-120||37 h 4 m||Show|
In five starts Texans starting quarterback Tom Savage has thrown five touchdowns to six interceptions. With the backfield banged up and defense relenting weekly, value would seem to be on the side of the 49ers. After all Coach Shanahan was able to muster a ball control game plan in last week’s win over the Bears. Look for the 49ers to show imbalance this week offensively and for the Texans to capitalize. Grab the Texans.
|12-03-17||Rams -7 v. Cardinals||32-16||Win||106||45 h 51 m||Show|
Former first round pick Blaine Gabbert has caught the attention of Bruce Arians with two quality starts. His play warranted a victory in a close loss to the Texans and was the main catalyst in a victory over the Jaguars. A blowout 33-0 loss in London earlier this season offers a revenge spot for the Cardinals. This game boils down to a scheme advantage that fully sides with the Rams. Defensively they have the skillset to counter Bruce Arians offensive adjustments which will showcase why Gabbert is a backup. Grab the Rams.
|12-03-17||Vikings v. Falcons -2.5||14-9||Loss||-120||41 h 25 m||Show|
A strong schedule often times can create an illusion ATS. Atlanta has been one of the top teams at home over the last few seasons, but continues to find themselves in small home favored spots. The reason why has to due with the strength of their opponents. Minnesota has defied expectations and been one of the best teams balanced offensively and defensively. Their Thanksgiving victory was the early game which added even more rest in preparation of week thirteen. Look for the Falcons to continue to open up their offense as they’ve scored a season high thirty-four points in consecutive weeks. Grab Atlanta.
|12-03-17||Chiefs v. Jets +3.5||31-38||Win||100||41 h 25 m||Show|
Sometimes bettors can get into the game of cat and mouse with a particular football team. I’ve seen this first hand in Vegas on the Kansas City Chiefs. They’ve stumbled considerably with three straight losses, yet are still in the lead of the division. That’s placed false value on a Chiefs team that’s not getting the big plays they were to start the season. The Jets may be 4-7 but they’ve managed to be a very dependable team at insurance of a close game. Of their six losses only one was by more than double digits.
|11-26-17||Saints +2.5 v. Rams||20-26||Loss||-100||92 h 28 m||Show|
The Saints travel this season has been all over the place. They’ve played in London and are coming off a swing to Buffalo and home. There’s also eye value as the Rams were in a winnable game against the Vikings until late. A team the Saints were destroyed by to start the season. Still, there were compounding issues to the Rams loss that will carry over even at home. While the Saints may not be their offensive selves in this one look for the Rams ineffectiveness offensively to prevent their cover. Grab the Saints.
|11-26-17||Titans -3 v. Colts||20-16||Win||100||89 h 4 m||Show|
Sunday week eleven’s card features an improper revenge spot. Indianapolis is coming off a bye week and has been superb as of late ATS. They covered against the Bengals, Steelers, and defeated the Texans outright. The Titans on the other hand were abysmal in Thursday loss to the Steelers. In their prior matchup the Colts controlled the majority of the game for three quarters. That was a pace that the Titans allowed the Colts to dictate. Look for a flip here. Grab the Titans.
|11-23-17||Giants v. Redskins -7||10-20||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
The Giants are coming off a home win that featured improved discipline defensively. The win was against a Chiefs team that ripped apart the Redskins defense in a Monday Night Football Showcase spot. Furthermore, the Redskins have been abysmal ATS at home with a 1-5 record. Still, the Redskins are receiving better play from their roster depth that’s had to step up with poor play and injuries at running back and wide receiver. That’ll be the difference in a quick turn around game from Sunday. Grab Washington.
|11-19-17||Chiefs v. Giants +10.5||9-12||Win||100||41 h 4 m||Show|
The Giants have been a blood bath disaster for bettors all season. Their lone win was a double digit underdogs on a Sunday night game in Denver. For several weeks folks have been trying to jump on that lone glimmer of ATS value to no avail. After a disastrous season low showcase against the 49ers the locker room is at an all time low. With the Chiefs coming off a bye week they are the less traveled team. Yet, look for the Chiefs in-game woes to continue even against the depleted deflated Giants. Grab New York.
|11-19-17||Lions -2.5 v. Bears||27-24||Win||100||41 h 3 m||Show|
At 5-4 the Detroit Lions have not won in style and all their losses have been close. Consecutive weeks against undermanned teams in the Packers/Browns is going to make their road challenge against the Bears tough. Yet, the Bears are a team that are still over valued based on mid-season play. Though they haven’t left Chicago in November the value lies with the road team Lions.
|11-19-17||Cardinals v. Texans -1.5||21-31||Win||100||41 h 3 m||Show|
Blaine Gabbert has officially been named a starter for the Cardinals on Sunday. His experience as a starter is actually far superior than the Texans Tom Savage. That is a factor in a small point spread along with the Cardinals star name talent. Yet this free fall for the Cardinals has been ongoing for two seasons. Expect the Texans to take advantage of a Cardinals team that’s record masks their overall issues. Grab Houston.
|11-12-17||Patriots v. Broncos +8.5||41-16||Loss||-130||47 h 15 m||Show|
The disastrous play exhibited by the Broncos offense has trickled over to their defense. Last week the team surrendered 51 points against the Eagles and looked defeated in all aspects. Facing a Patriots team coming off a bye week would seem to be a huge concern for a Denver team that’s lost four straight. Yet, quarterback Brock Osweiler has showcased his best performances in prime time. He’s boasted wins over the Bengals, Colts, and Patriots in 2015. Look for the Broncos to get on track and challenge an inflated number.
|11-12-17||Bengals +5 v. Titans||20-24||Win||100||40 h 36 m||Show|
The Bengals started off the season going 0-3 before gaining a little trust back with consecutive wins. Yet over their last three games they’ve been outclassed by the Steelers and Jaguars with a narrow win at home against the Colts. With a 1-3 road record (lone win over winless Browns) there is a huge concern traveling on the road against the Titans. Still, Tennessee’s lack of taking care of their opponents early is a deciding factor to weigh ATS. Grab the road value here on the Bengals.
|11-12-17||Packers +6 v. Bears||23-16||Win||100||40 h 36 m||Show|
Mounting injuries and issues at quarterback have drowned the Packers ATS value. Quarterback Brett Hundley has not shown much in dissecting two division opponents in the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions. At home this year the Bears have rose to the occasion with upset wins over the Panthers and Steelers. Coach Fox has done it with brilliant game plans that have attacked opponents offensive strengths. Yet the Bears haven’t had to step out of the box offensively. Look for the Packers to bring forth a proper game plan to attack Mitch Trubisky’s weaknesses.
|11-05-17||Chiefs v. Cowboys -2||17-28||Win||100||46 h 6 m||Show|
The issue of Ezekiel Elliott’s looming suspension has not been a distraction for the Cowboys. They took care of business in road wins against the 49ers and Redskins all the while not hitting a top gear. Kansas City is a dangerous team but has hit the typical mid-season wall showcased by past Andy Reid teams. Dallas has not had many big tests this season against stiff competition aside from Denver/Green Bay. Look for the Cowboys to pass this time and get the ATS cover.
|11-05-17||Bucs +7 v. Saints||10-30||Loss||-115||43 h 32 m||Show|
Perhaps no team has sunken quicker from an ATS standpoint than the Buccaneers, nor has a team rose as quick as the Saints. That pushes forth the first re-upped Saints home value spread in a couple of seasons. While the Saints offense has been in-tune there his a history of the Buccaneers causing issues for Drew Brees. They’ve had an ability to read his over the middle pass routes and I expect the same Sunday. While the Buccaneers offense will likely continue to have it’s woes look for the defense to hold fort. Grab the Bucs.
|11-05-17||Colts +6.5 v. Texans||20-14||Win||100||43 h 31 m||Show|
How disheartened will the Colts be after hearing the news of Andrew Luck out for the season? It’ll likely have a small psychological impact but not as big as the other side with the Texans. Keep in mind this is a Texans team that has had complete disarray at the quarterback position since Matt Schaub was demoted. Look for a deflated home effort and for the Colts defense to capitalize off of Tom Savage and the Texans.
|10-29-17||Falcons v. Jets +6||25-20||Win||100||38 h 47 m||Show|
The Jets have lost consecutive heart breakers after surrendering steep leads. They’ll face a desperate Atlanta Falcons team that faced the same opponents in the Dolphins and Patriots. As odd as that is, the fact of the matter is the Falcons have lost their team identity offensively. This has caused a young defense to suffer. Look for the Jets to attack the Falcons defense and cover as five point home dogs.
|10-29-17||Raiders v. Bills -2.5||14-34||Win||100||38 h 47 m||Show|
At 4-2 Buffalo may be the least talked about team with an above .500 record in football. All of their wins and losses have been close results. Yet, they know how to pull finish games especially at home where they boast a 3-0 record. Sunday is expected to be 48 degrees with rain. Take the Bills to continue to protect their home field.
|10-23-17||Redskins +5 v. Eagles||24-34||Loss||-113||71 h 15 m||Show|
Consecutive dominant wins by the Eagles has pushed their ATS value to a season-high. A combination of variables leads me to side with Washington here. One, week one’s road win by Philadelphia skews this line a tad. Also, the Redskins have not exhibited solid second half football that’s plagued them in recent matchups against Kansas City and San Francisco. Teams with Thursday game rest have been strong ATS the following week, but look for this game to reverse the course. Grab Washington.
|10-22-17||Bengals v. Steelers -5||14-29||Win||100||43 h 10 m||Show|
Oddsmakers sometimes have to shift line value for the downright obvious reasons. Here the Steelers are taking on a team in the Bengals coming off a bye week. Their defense has been a factor in years past at limiting Big Ben and covering against the Steelers. Even though the Steelers offense isn’t scoring at the volume of years past, they’re finding a balance. Grab the Steelers to cover Sunday.
|10-22-17||Titans -5.5 v. Browns||12-9||Loss||-110||40 h 45 m||Show|
What I’ve seen in Vegas is the knack for bettors to continue to chase the Browns. Last week oddsmakers did a great job in inflating a line that did not matter against the Texans. This week they’ve done so again but the attraction lies with the Browns as a home dog. Unfortunately Cleveland catches a Titans team blossoming with confidence and is an untimely matchup. Grab the Titans.
|10-16-17||Colts v. Titans -7.5||22-36||Win||100||27 h 40 m||Show|
I had this game as my third play on the NFL board via 5dimes early line of 7.5. That’s what we have here and will look for the Titans to respond with Mariota back under center. In all phases the Titans have under achieved since their blowout win over the Jaguars in week two. Indianapolis just doesn’t have the personnel to keep up with a Titans team that is far better than their play/record indicates.
|10-15-17||Bears +7 v. Ravens||27-24||Win||100||34 h 37 m||Show|
The Bears played about as ugly as one team can on Monday night, and now will travel on the road to Baltimore. It’s safe to say that the Ravens veteran defense will be primed for the miscues that Mitch Trubisky showcased Monday. Still, the Ravens have not been consistent enough offensively to warrant this spread. Grab Chicago to keep covering within the number.
|10-15-17||Packers v. Vikings +3||10-23||Win||101||34 h 36 m||Show|
The Vikings injuries continue to mount. After losing rookie running back Dalvin Cook they’ll now be without Sam Bradford and Stefon Diggs. That’s going to put a high burden on the shoulder of Case Keenum who has not looked comfortable in recent outings. Off of Green Bay’s stout win look for the Vikings experience defensively against Aaron Rodgers to shine. Back the home Vikings to cover the field goal here.
|10-09-17||Vikings v. Bears +3||20-17||Push||0||73 h 28 m||Show|
My theory on backup quarterbacks is they show their true colors after two starts. Ideally Minnesota never wanted to be in the situation of having to start Case Keenum. After a great performance against the Bucs he did not show the merit in a winnable game against the Lions. With Dalvin Cook’s season ending injury it appears the Vikings may be rushing back Sam Bradford. The Bears get a fresh start by starting Mitchell Trubisky. He won’t be the center piece Monday but expect the Bears defense to carry over the Lions game plan on a week ago.
|10-08-17||Packers +2.5 v. Cowboys||35-31||Win||100||45 h 23 m||Show|
The Packers continue to face familiar opponents. In week two they met the Atlanta Falcons for the third time in a year in Atlanta, and will now travel to Dallas for the third time in a season and a half. Green Bay’s issues with their running game will put a high burden on Aaron Rodgers shoulders, but not to the degree that Dak Prescott is facing. Dallas seems to be stuck in a play call shield as they try to reconfigure what worked last season and isn’t this. That bodes to the strength of the veteran on field Packers team as well as the sideline experience coaching wise. Grab Green Bay.
|10-08-17||49ers v. Colts||23-26||Win||100||42 h 49 m||Show|
The Colts have shown very little offensively but are growing more and more comfortable with Jacoby Brissett. San Francisco has gained in ATS value with three straight covers against Seattle, LA, and Arizona. While they have been covering games it’s obvious the same play call connection between Coach Shanahan and Brian Hoyer is missing. Grab the Colts off their late Sunday night performance in Seattle.
|10-01-17||Raiders v. Broncos -3||10-16||Win||100||45 h 22 m||Show|
Both Oakland and Denver are coming off shaky week three performances. Denver’s continued distrust with quarterback Trevor Semien on the road impacted their chance to win against Buffalo. While Oakland will assuredly come out the gate with a stronger performance, this is a game that will be swung and won in the fourth quarter. Throughout his young career Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has been one of the best quarterbacks to ride against when poor performances rear their head. Expect Carr’s turnover issues from last week to continue.
|10-01-17||Rams +6.5 v. Cowboys||35-30||Win||100||42 h 47 m||Show|
There is no doubt that Dallas has played a tough schedule to start the season. The same can not be said for the Rams. LA’s two wins have come against Indianapolis and San Francisco, which are a combined 1-5. Washington’s strong showing on the road in LA only benefits the attraction on Dallas here. With confidence and returning home for the first time since week one oddsmakers have baited this line a tad. Grab the Rams here to have an impactful game plan on both sides of the football to gain the cover.
|10-01-17||Steelers v. Ravens +3||26-9||Loss||-100||42 h 47 m||Show|
Coach John Harbaugh has to be displeased with the Ravens efforts over the last six quarters of football. While the Ravens defeated the Browns in week two by fourteen points, the win was masked by red zone issues and five Browns turnovers. Jacksonville used that film to their advantage and continued to rack up yards on Baltimore’s defense for 410 yards. Yet, Baltimore’s defense has always had an ability to perform well against Pittsburgh as well as veteran quarterback Joe Flacco. Grab the value here on the home Ravens.
|09-24-17||Giants v. Eagles -6||24-27||Loss||-110||40 h 43 m||Show|
The Eagles played well in a loss to the Chiefs. Though it stands as a loss and puts them at 1-1, I believe they’re being downgraded in terms of the number. A win in Kansas City may have pushed this line north of 7.5-8 against the Giants. New York has a laundry list of issues that will continue to grow on Sunday. Grab the value on a Philadelphia team that is poised for an aggressive home division win.