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#127 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills -2 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on Buffalo last week and they were embarrassed at Chicago to the tune of 38-0.  They decided on game day they would sit all of their starters which was a surprise to us.  The Bears played their starters and buried Buffalo.  The Bills head coach McDermott was obviously not happy after the performance.  “That wasn’t up to our standard, what we expect,” McDermott said. “We have a lot of work to do. It wasn’t up to our standard, that's very clear. It doesn't matter who's out there — ones, twos, threes, fours, whoever it is — we expect them to perform and we expect our level of performance to be much better than that.”  We expect a much better performance as they look for at least 1 win in the preseason for some momentum (Buffalo is 0-2).  Tampa is on the opposite end with a 2-0 preseason record.  QB Mayfield is banged up and he will most likely sit again leaving the QB duties up to Bazelak, newly signed Bridgewater, and Trask.  Last week the Bucs topped Pittsburgh 17-14 but they were outplayed drastically in the stats.  The Steelers average 5.4 YPP to just 3.8 for TB and on the ground the disparity was even more pronounced at 5.0 YPC (for Steelers) and just 1.7 YPC for the Bucs.  We expect the Bills to play with much more urgency this week after their embarrassing effort last week while Tampa, with 2 wins already, will be looking to just get to the regular season.  Lay the small number with Buffalo.

#429 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills +2.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8 PM ET - The Bills are off a 34-25 loss last week vs the NY Giants but they played much better than the result. The Buffalo offense put up over 7.0 YPP and outgained the Giants by nearly 2.0 YPP in that loss. They put up those offensive numbers with QB Allen and RB Cook out of the line up but we expect both to play some this week. When Allen exits, we like Buffalo’s QB rotation with Trubisky, White, and Buechele. Trubisky & White have plenty of NFL experience combining to throw for over 14,000 yards and 83 TD’s. Head coach Sean McDermott has shown he does take the preseason seriously (15-10 ATS record) and he’s done well as an NFLX dog with a 4-2 ATS record in that spot since the start of the 2021 season. His teams are also 3-0 SU in the preseason when coming off a loss during that time frame. The Bears will play QB Caleb Williams in this one, however he’s been struggling to pick up on new head coach Ben Johnson’s offense in camp. When Williams takes a seat, the Chicago QB room will be without veteran Case Keenum who is out here with an injury after throwing for 2 TD’s in last week 24-24 tie vs Miami. These 2 teams have had combined practices this week and Chicago’s offensive line has had big time problems, especially at LT, with Buffalo’s defensive front. In that tie, the Bears offense averaged only 4.5 YPP. Buffalo is the deeper team which should give us an edge in the 2nd half. They’ve also had an extra day off, so to speak, after playing last Saturday while Chicago played on Sunday. We’ll take the better team, off a loss, getting points.

ASA NFLx play on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 -125 vs Cleveland Browns, 1PM ET - The Eagles hold a decisive advantage over the Browns in one key area heading into Saturday and that’s the QB position. Cleveland’s quarterback situation is a disaster, making matters worse is rookie QB Sanders (played well last week) has an oblique injury and may not play. In fact, there is talk Tyler Huntley may play the entire game against Philly. The Eagles’ offense is in the capable hands of QB Tanner McKee. McKee was an efficient 20/25 for 252 yards, 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s last week against the Bengals. Thompson-Robinson relieved McKee and was 5/8 for 56-yards. Philadelphia’s defensive front, bolstered by rookies Carter and Smith, will likely disrupt Huntley and limit the Browns’ run-heavy approach. The Eagles averaged 6.08 yards per play last week and should have success again this week against a Browns D that allowed 5.6YPPL a year ago (23rd most). Philadelphia’s depth will come through in this one and lead the Eagles to a TD+ win.

ASAwins NFLx play on Atlanta Falcons +4.5 vs. Tennessee Titans, Friday 7PM ET - We like the Falcons to cover the +5.5 spread against the Tennessee Titans in their preseason Week 2 matchup, for a few key reasons. The Falcons’ defense looked good in their opener against the Lions, with rookie edge James Pearce Jr. and veteran Arnold Ebiketie generating pressure on Detroit’s QB’s, which was sorely lacking a year ago. This pass rush could exploit the Titans’ offensive line, and a rookie QB, which struggled in their Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers. Tennessee managed just 201 total yards of offense against the Bucs and currently have depth concerns at running back so expect a heavy dose of rookies (Mullings and Chestnut) in the backfield. Atlanta’s third-string QB Easton Stick outshined Tennessee’s Cam Ward in their respective debuts, completing 15 of 18 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. Stick’s efficiency, and the ability of the Falcons to convert 3rd downs 4/11, should help sustain drives against a Titans secondary that was exposed in joint practices this week and their first game. Atlanta has some injury concerns and has hinted they may play QB Cousins for a series or two before Stick takes over for the rest of the game. Either way, this number is too high according to our metrics and anything over a field goal is a buy.

ASA NFLx play on Philadelphia Eagles +6.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday 7:30pm ET *Bonus bet: Bengals 1st Quarter -1.5 - We can’t ignore Bengals head coach Zac Taylor’s record in the preseason of 3-12 SU, 0-5 SU the last two seasons, and will have to grab the points with Philly. Of course, that’s not the only reason, but it’s a good starting point. Taylor has publicly said he plans to play QB Burrow and other starters for the first quarter on Thursday night (we like the Bengals -1.5 1st Q), but once those players go out, the Eagles have much better depth. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is 3-7 SU in the preseason, but did win 2 of three a season ago. The QB rotation is a critical aspect of this game, and we like the Eagles backups more than the Bengals. Plus, said backup QB’s will be facing different levels of defense and Philadelphia was significantly better than the Bengals a year ago on that side of the football. Philly is expected to play Tanner McKee and Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the majority of the game with rookie Kyle McCord seeing limited snaps late in the game. The Bengals will give Burrow and starters the first quarter but it’s highly unlikely they will jeopardize their skill players health with a ton of passing attempts. After Burrow comes Jake Browning and Desmond Ridder with Payton Thorne getting mop-up duty. Philadelphia was a top-10 defense a year ago in many key categories including: yards per point allowed, points per game allowed, yards per play allowed, total yards per game allowed. Cincinnati on the other hand was in the bottom half of the league in most key defensive categories. Late in the game when the backups are in, we like the Eagles to have more success offensively and keep this game close in the second half.

NOTE: 1st Half Line is our PREFERRED way to bet this one! ASA NFL play on LA Chargers +1.5 vs. Detroit Lions, 8pm ET - The NFL season is officially here with the Hall of Fame game tonight between the Chargers and Lions. We are going to side with the Chargers in this game with our strongest bet on the 1st half with Los Angeles. The Chargers gave up 5.4 Yards Per Play defensively a year ago and 18.5PPG which was the 2nd lowest number in the NFL. In comparison the Lions allowed 21.5PPG and 5.8YPPL (29th). Detroit lost their Offensive and Defensive coordinators so expect a very vanilla gameplan tonight as new systems are being put in place. Neither team will play many starters at all including their franchise QB’s in Herbert and Goff. We like the Chargers backup QB better with Trey Lance who is schedule to play the first half of this game. Lance provides mobility which will lead to several big plays with his feet rather than his arm. The Lions are going to give Hendon Hooker a long look at QB to see if he can be Goff’s primary  backup. We like Lance with more NFL experience to outshine Hooker and the Lions in this one.

#114 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets +2.5 over Washington Commanders, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Commanders will be sending rookie QB Daniels under center to start on Saturday and we expect him to have big problems vs this Jets defense.  The 2 teams had a joint practice on Thursday in New York and the NY defense dominated as we expected.  Daniels was 7 of 15 passing but all of his completions were screens and check downs.  It’s been reported that he had only 25 yards passing on those 7 completions.  Washington’s offensive line is not a strong point (ranked 19th per PFF) and they are banged up on top of that.  Three potential starters sat out Thursday’s joint practice and most likely won’t play on Saturday.  That’s bad news vs a Jets defensive line that is talented and deep (ranked #1 per PFF).  We look for Washington’s offense to struggle big time on Saturday vs this deep NY defense.  On the other side the Jets sat QB Rodgers for the joint practice on Thursday and they still moved the ball well on the Commanders defense with veteran Tyrod Taylor at the helm.  Rodgers won’t play in this game on Saturday but Taylor, who has over 12,000 career passing yards, should get lots of run with 3rd string QB Travis out with an injury.  Jets head coach Saleh has been a successful pre-season coach with a 6-3 overall record including a perfect 3-0 in his first NFLX game each season.  The Jets are the better overall team and much stronger on both lines of scrimmage.  We’ll take NY at home on Saturday.

ASA play on Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Friday, 7 PM ET - The first aspect of this game we will discuss is the QB rotations for both teams. Depth is critical in NFLx games, and the deeper teams have a clear advantage later in the game. The Texans are the clear-cut choice here when it comes to QB depth. Texans will start and play CJ Stroud and the other starters into the 1st quarter. They will then turn over the QB duties to Davis Mills, Case Keenum and Tim Boyle. Davis/Keenum have a combined 114 career NFL games under center, including several starts. Tim Boyle has even played in 20 games dating back to 2019. In the shortened action in the preseason HOF opener the 3 Texan QB’s combined to go 19/27 for 197 passing yards with 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s. The Steelers have a QB battle going on in camp, but Russell Wilson will not play in this game and HC Tomlin says Justin Fields won’t start and will only see limited action. Pittsburgh was in the bottom ten teams in the league in Offensive total yards while managing just 17.9PPG which ranked 28th. Houston on the other hand was 12th in total yards gained last season while putting up 22.2PPG. The Texans hold the advantage defensively here too as they gave up 330.7YPG a year ago versus the Steelers who allowed 342.1YPG. We like the aspect of the Texans having live game experience under their belt after the Hall of Fame game while the Steelers are just getting started. We will lay the points with Houston.

#121 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Both teams plan to play their starters in this game which gives the Bills a solid edge. How long the regulars play is in question for both teams, but even when the starters come out, Buffalo is the deeper and better team and laying under a FG is a decent play here. The Bills are coming off a 27-15 loss @ Pittsburgh last weekend. In that game, the Bills outgained the Steelers 5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP but Buffalo had 13 penalties (just 4 for Pittsburgh) and they turned the ball over 4 times. 17 of Pittsburgh’s 25 points came on drives of 25, 13, and -1 yards. A week earlier the Bills beat Indy and outgained the Colts by 1.2 YPP so they’ve outgained both opponents by more than 1.0 YPP. Chicago is also 1-1 (loss vs Colts & win vs Titans) but they’ve been outgained in both games (total yards). Our word is Justin Fields continues to struggle with accuracy in camp and while he is 3 for 3 in the preseason, 2 of his passes were short dump offs to WR Moore and RB Herbert that went for big yardage (both TD’s). We like the better, deeper team to close out the preseason with a win. Lay the small number with Buffalo.

#109 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one opened with the Steelers favored by 1.5 and has jumped a bit. We like them here at -3 or lower and right now (Wednesday evening) the line is set at -2.5 at most shops. We like Pittsburgh’s QB rotation quite a bit which is key in the pre-season with backups and 3rd stringers getting a lot of time. They will start with Kenny Pickett who was solid last year as a rookie throwing for nearly 2500 yards on 63% completions. Pickett struggled a bit early in the season but Pitt won 5 of their final 6 games last season and their lone loss during that stretch was 16-14 vs Baltimore, a game Pickett sat out the majority of in concussion protocol. Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph are fighting for the back up spot and both have plenty of NFL experience, including starting experience. We have Pittsburgh’s offensive line & overall defense rated ahead of Tampa’s entering this season. The Bucs will start Baker Mayfield and QB and then move to Kyle Trask. Mayfield has been up & down at best in his career (61% career completion percentage) and Trask has attempted only 9 career passes in the NFL. The coaching edge is heavily in Pittsburgh’s favor with Mike Tomlin over Tampa’s Todd Bowles. Tomlin has put an emphasis on performing well in the pre-season with a SU record of 15-4 the last 5 seasons. Bowles was 0-3 SU in the pre-season last year, his first as Tampa’s head coach. Pitt beat the Bucs 20-18 last year in the regular season and that was with Brady at QB for TB. We like the Steelers to win this one by more than a FG.

#126 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 7 PM ET - New Chicago head coach Eberflus announced this week that they will play their starters for much of the first half. What happened after he announced that? The line went from Cleveland -4 up to -5 and -5.5. That’s because the Browns also plan on playing their starters for some of the first half including QB Brissett who has yet to play in the preseason. Browns head coach Stefanski said he wants to get Brissett some extended time with the starters so he is ready when the season rolls around in a few weeks. Our view on this game is if both sets of starters play extensively in the first half – big edge Cleveland. After the break, who has the advantage in the 2nd half? Cleveland as well as they are deeper and have the better QB rotation with Dobbs and Rosen. The Bears are 2-0 in the preseason but their offensive numbers have been poor averaging just 4.2 yards per play. That’ll be a problem in this game vs a deep Cleveland defense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year and in 2 preseason games they’ve allowed just 4.5 YPP. The Browns are 1-1 in the preseason but they’ve outgained both of their opponents by nearly a full 1.0 YPP. Their loss was here at home last week when the Eagles scored a TD late in the 4th quarter to pick up a 21-20 win. The Browns are at home again this week off that tough loss while Chicago is on the road for the 2nd straight game after traveling to Seattle last week. The Bears will really struggle offensively in this game and we like Cleveland to win by a TD+

#412 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -6.5 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET - After last week’s win, the Bills have now won 9 straight NFL preseason games which is the 2nd best current streak behind the Ravens 21 straight games. It’s obvious that head coach Sean McDermott puts an emphasis on winning preseason games. He has stated he will play his starters “a healthy amount” this week including QB Josh Allen. Last week in their 27-24 win over Indianapolis, McDermott sat most of his starters and the Bills had 5 turnovers and still pulled out a win. They outgained the Colts, who played more of their starters including starting QB Matt Ryan, by 1.6 yards per play. Denver will not play their starters in this game according to new head coach Nathaniel Hackett who says he “isn’t a fan of the preseason”. Josh Johnson will start at QB followed by Brett Rypien for Denver who beat Dallas 17-7 last week but outgained the Cowboys by only 8 yards. We have one of the best teams in the NFL playing their starters extensively here vs a bunch of back ups for Denver. Laying under a TD is a solid situation. Take Buffalo.

#108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Ravens -3.5 over Tennessee Titans, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Lots of things going for the Ravens in this one. First of all it’s quite obvious that head coach John Harbaugh wants to win in the pre-season. His well documented and talked about lifetime record 40-12 SU record in NFLX including 20 straight wins dating back to the 2016 season! They’ve won 12 of those 20 games by double digits and their average margin of victory in their 20 game winning streak is +13 PPG. Not only are the Ravens winning NFLX games at an incredible rate, they are covering to the tune of 25-5 ATS their last 30. Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel hasn’t shown much determination the pre-season winning just 4 of his 11 games since taking over the Titans in 2018. The QB advantage also is heavily in favor of Baltimore in this game. Tennessee starter Tannehill didn’t take a single snap in the pre-season last year and we doubt he will play in this game. That leaves Logan Woodside, who has thrown 3 career passes in the NFL, and rookie Malik Willis to guide this offense. Baltimore will most likely go without starting QB Jackson as well but we like their depth at that position much better. Tyler Huntley is the back up and he threw for over 1,000 yards last year taking over for Jackson when he was injured. After Huntley it will be Brett Hundley who has throw for almost 2,000 yards in his career. Tennessee is banged up in the defensive backfield and had to add 2 safeties to the roster this week so they have enough depth for this game. We’ll lay it Baltimore at home on Thursday night.

#117 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -3.5 over Houston, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Super Bowl champs step into this game with an 0-2 pre-season record. QB Brady has played one series the entire pre-season and the starters have been very limited. In their game last weekend vs Tennessee, most of the starters didn’t even see the field. That changes this week. Tampa head coach Bruce Arians stated he needs to get his regulars some extended playing time in preparation for their NFL opener vs Dallas. "We can't go against Dallas and all of sudden play game speed. We've got to have some game speed under our belt before we show up against the Cowboys,” Arians said this week. Houston, on the other hand, is 2-0 in the pre-season beating the Packers and the Cowboys. Their defense has yet to play against a legit QB having faced Jordan Love, Kurt Benkert, Ben DiNucci, Garrett Gilbert, and Cooper Rush so far in their 2 NFLX games. Now they’ll have to face Brady and the Tampa starters for an extended period of time. Despite their 2 wins the Houston offense, still without QB Watson, has averaged just 4.4 YPP. Now they will face perhaps the top defense in the NFL with their QB rotation of Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Driskel, and Davis Mills. If the Tampa starters play as planned, we basically have one of the top teams in the NFL (Bucs) facing one of the worst teams in the NFL (Texans). We’ll lay it in this game and take Tampa to cover.