Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-27-22 | Rams v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 7-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Bengals at 6:00 ET. This could be billed as a rematch of last year's Super Bowl, one in which the Rams eked out a 23-20 win over the Bengals. Matthew Stafford directed a 15-play, 78-yard career-defining TD drive that ended with a one-yard TD pass to the incomparable Cooper Kupp with 1:25 to go in the game. Cincy's second-year star QB Joe Burrow did himself proud, as did the entire Bengals team, Cincinnati's 26-19 January 15th win over Las Vegas in an AFC wild-card game was its FIRST playoff victory in 31 years! Both teams are expected to be back in the playoffs again in 2022. However, that has little bearing on this contest. Neither Stafford nor Burrow will play in this one, although both the Rams and Bengals are hopeful that their respective starting QBs will be ready for Week 1 (why chance playing either one here?). Coming off of impressive performances from what were mostly reserve players in their 29-22 preseason-opening win over the Chargers, the Chargers lost 24-20 to Houston in Week 2. However, the Rams got an extended look at both reserve QBs in last Friday night's 24-20 preseason loss to the Texans. Rams head coach Sean McVay said how the game would unfold, Wolford started and played in the first half, with Perkins taking over after halftime. "It was good to see Bryce and John both get scoring drives and get some work," McVay said. For this Week 3 game, the Rams biggest question is the health of some of their key players. The Bengals are 0-2 to open the preseason, with the defense having given up a combined 61 points and 733 total yards. There's NOTHING good about that but I find that the "motivation" factor favors the homestanding Bengals in this one. No team wants to go 0-3 in the preseason, and you can't convince me that the Bengals wouldn't love to beat the Rams. The oddsmakers agree, as they have made Cincy a 2 1/2-point favorite in this game. I'm 'all in" in laying the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-25-22 | Packers v. Chiefs +1 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the KC Chiefs at 8:00 ET. A Green Bay-Kansas City meeting featuring Rodgers vs Mahomes would typically highlight any week in the NFL's regular season. However, when the two powerhouses meet Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium, Rodgers will NOT play for Green Bay and it looks like neither will Mahomes. Rodgers has not played in a preseason game since 2018 but given all the new receivers he has to work with, head coach LaFleur didn't rule him out for Week 3 until Tuesday. In fact, almost all of Green Bay's key starters have been held out of the first two preseason games. As for Mahomes, KC head coach Reid said, " We’ll see. He’s been practicing, so long and all, I haven’t made up my mind on all that. He’s been going and doing everything." I'd love to see Mahomes play, as in the team's first two games, he's completed 18 of 26 passes for 222 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. ”If Mahomes doesn’t play Thursday night, the Chiefs are likely to give Chad Henne the start. He's KC's No. 2 QB (he did not play last week) with rookie Shane Buechele and rookie Dustin Crum standing by for playing time. Green Bay's backup QB Jordan Love threw three INTs in a 28-21 Week 1 loss at San Francisco but avoided throwing a pick in Week 2's 20-10 home win over New Orleans (Saints are 0-2). However, Love completed a modest 12 of 24 for a measly 113 yards. In his limited action so far (was a 1st round pick in the 2020 Draft), he hasn't convinced anyone that he is ready to take over for Rodgers. The Chiefs lost 19-14 at Chicago in Week 1 but rebounded by opening a 14-0 lead over Washington, leading to a 24-13 Week 2 win over the Commanders at home. At this price, KC is the Situational choice. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-20-22 | Lions v. Colts +3 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game of the Year is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.. The Detroit Lions had another tough season in 2021, going just 3-13-1 overall. That result left the Lions in the basement of the NFC North and kept the team out of the playoffs for the FIFTH straight year. Detroit started 0-8 and didn’t win a game until Week 13 versus the Vikings. As for the Indianapolis Colts, they started 1-4 in 2021 but would ultimately go 9-8 overall to finish second in the AFC South. The Colts were knocked out of playoff contention due to a stunning 26-11 loss in Jacksonville to the 3-14 Jaguars in the final week. Detroit opened its preseason schedule with a 27-23 home loss to Atlanta. The Lions took a 23-20 lead on a28-yard field goal with 5:57 to play, then forced Atlanta into a three-and-out. However, Detroit QB David Blough fumbled at his 33 with 2:00 left. Atlanta rookie Desmond Ridder (of Cincinnati fame) needed only 30 seconds to drive the Falcons 33 yards, connecting on a 21-yard TD pass with 1:30 remaining. The Colts lost their preseason opener as well, losing 27-24, after holding a 24-10 lead with 10 1/2-minutes to go in the game. Buffalo scored on three consecutive possessions in the final 8:10, winning the game on a 46-yard field goal as time expired! Detroit QB Jared Goff is under pressure to perform in 2022 and the good news is that he has a solid OL that never played a full game in 2021 but looks healthy heading into 2022. Detroit's defense allowed 27.5 PPG last season (2md-most in the NFL) but is joined by SIX defensive draft picks, including Aiden Hutchinson (had 24 sacks for Michigan last year), the No. 2 overall pick of the 2022 Draft. Wentz almost led the Colts to the playoffs last season (see above) but he's gone in favor of 15-year vet Matt Ryan. Rayn passed for 3,968 yards in 2021, snapping a run of 10 consecutive 4,000 yard-plus seasons. He is set to become the Colts' FOURTH different opening day starter in as many years, since Andrew Luck retired. Ryan’s role may be limited on Saturday, but his backups are way more qualified than Goff's backups. Nick Foles has extensive experience in Frank Reich’s offense from his time with the Eagles (don't forget, Noles is a Super Bowl MVP) plus Texas rookie Sam Ehlinger was 10 of 11 last week with two TDs and zero INTs. That duo is in stark contrast to the Lions duo of backup QBs, David Blough and Tim Boyle. The Lions’ depth QBs behind Jared Goff have a 0-8 record in regular season starts. The Lions "found a way" to lose last week and that's now NINE consecutive preseason losses for Detroit. Think Detroit is "due" for a win? Well, the Ravens have been "due" for a preseason loss for a few years now but have won 21 consecutive preseason games. No reason at all why Detroit is favored here. Take the points but I'm expecting an easy Indianapolis win, especially after the team 'gave away' last week's game to the Bills Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-29-21 | Patriots v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 22-20 | Win | 100 | 58 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the NY Giants at 6:00 ET. The Patriots are 2-0. They've looked good in both games. Both Cam Newton and Mac Jones dominated in New England's 35-0 destruction of the Eagles in Week 2. Newton had 103 yards on 8 of 9 passing, while Jones had 146 yards on 13 of 19 passing. I don't expect Bill Belichick to keep the foot on the gas in this now meaningless Week 3 NFL preseason contest. The Patriots can simply go through the motions here and get ready for their Week 1 matchup at home against the Dolphins (it's interesting to note that the Pats will play their final Week 17 game in Miami to finish out the regular season.) The Giants are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. They lost 12-7 at home to the Jets in Week 1, before then falling 17-13 at Cleveland last weekend. I say this one just means more to New York. The Giants are coming off a miserable 2020/21 campaign and are looking for any tiny positive thing they can before heading into the regular season. In the setback to the Browns, Brian Lewerke threw for 108 yards, a TD, and an INT on 11 of 19 passing while third-stringer Mike Glennon had 86 passing yards on 10 of 13 passing. Does it matter that New England is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six as a favorite? How about the fact that New York is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog? It certainly doesn't hurt! Either way, look for the home side to take this one much more seriously and to walk away with at least the ATS cover. The play is New York. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-28-21 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team +4 | Top | 37-3 | Loss | -102 | 58 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game of the Week is on the Was FB Team at 6:00 ET. Washington is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS in the preseason. Baltimore is 2-0 SU/ATS so far in the preseason. The Ravens have now won 19 straight pre-season games in a row. That's remarkable, but as the old saying goes, "all good things have to come to an end." I understand that John Harbaugh takes the preseason more seriously than other coaches. I get it. Clearly, he does with a 19 game winning streak on the line. But I don't think Harbaugh could care less about setting any preseason records. Tyler Huntley is expected to see most of the time for Baltimore under center in this one. Last week he had 187 yards and an INT. Washington has much more to work on than Harbaugh and the Ravens. The Football team is off a decent 17-13 win over the Bengals in Week 2 and I believe they'll be out to finish up the preseason strong. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to play with a chip on his shoulder, as the veteran finished for 96 yards. Taylor Heinicke had 80 yards passing, while RB Jaret Patterson had 71 rushing yards and a TD. I think Washington will be out to not only build on their win from last week, but to also snap the Ravens' preseason streak, and make sure they don't get the record here on their own field. Lastly, note that The Football Team is still 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog. Outright win? Definitely not out of the realm of possibility in my opinion. However, my official recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-27-21 | Steelers v. Panthers -3.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Car Panthers at 7:10 ET. It's going to be a different regular season. We now have 17 games in the regular season, while just the three in the preseason. This though will actually be the Steelers' fourth game. They played in the Hall of Fame Game, and so they come into this meaningless final preseason contest having already gone a perfect 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread. They beat the Lions 26-20 last weekend but were unable to cover the seven-point spread. But regardless, I think that Mike Tomlin has seen enough. Look for Pittsburgh to just go through the motions here in Carolina this weekend. But for the Panthers, they could really use something positive before heading into the regular season after starting out the preseason by going 0-2 straight up and against the spread. This one simply means MORE to Matt Rhule and the home side. And in this meaningless Week 3 preseason NFL contest, I think that's going to be the difference-maker. Mason Rudolph looked pretty good against a poor Lions team last time out for the Steelers. He saw most of the time in that one, meaning that Dwayne Haskins will likely see most of the time today under center for Pittsburgh. On the other side of the field, the Panthers lost their second straight preseason game, falling 20-3 to Baltimore. Will Grier was efficient though, going 11 of 14 for 144 yards passing. Pittsburgh faded down the stretch there against the Lions last week as it allowed two meaningless touchdowns really late to let Detroit sneak in through the back door. And as I said off the top, I think it'll just go through the motions here as well today. There's nothing left to prove, to figure out, or to play for today for the visiting side. While as I've also outlined, this one sure does mean much more to the winless home side. Albeit winless in the preseason. That's my read in this one. I expect Carolina to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the short points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints -4 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Magic Play is on the NO Saints at 8:00 ET. After this, there's only one week left in the NFLX preseason. New Orleans is off a tough 17-14 Week 1 loss at Baltimore, but I think it'll rebound and give a bigger effort here in Week 2 at home. Jacksonsville fell 23-13 at home to Cleveland. Remember, Urban Meyer is the new head coach of the Jaguars. The Jags' defense looked shaky, allowing 319 passing yards to Cleveland. Last year Jacksonville conceded 264.4 yards passing per game, which ranked 24th in the league. Jacksonville rookie QB Trevor Lawrence was six of nine for 71 yards. The Saints can pin their loss on sloppy play last week, as they committed eight turnovers on offense. Last year the Saints averaged just 1.2 turnovers per game last year. New Orleans' QB Jameis Winston was 7 of 12 for 96 yards and a touchdown. I think New Orleans will clean up its play here though, and that'll be the differene in the end. Jacksonville has so many things to work on, that it's disorginaztion will lead to another poor collective effort. Look for the Saints' defense to take advantage at home and for New Orleans' more experienced offensive unit to do the rest. Lay the points, the play is New Orleans. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-21-21 | Lions +6.5 v. Steelers | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
The 3rd pick of my STTP is a 10* on the Det Lions at 7:30 ET. The bottom line for this one is, I think this is a great overall situational play. I believe that after two straight wins to open up the NFLX preseason (Pittsburgh won in the Hall of Fame Game as well), that the Steelers are going to take the proverbial foot off the gas finally. Detroit has opened up the preseason by going 0-1. It fell 16-15 at home to the Bills last weekend. Detroit has plenty to work on in the preseason after the departure of main-stay QB Matt Stafford. The Lions actually scored 12 points in the fourth quarter last week and I think they can carry over that momentum from that final frame, to the opener of this one. Remember, this isn't a regular-season game. You can't use the same logic in this instance as you would normally handicap a regular season or playoff contest. I believe that it's foolish to judge a team based upon its form from the previous week in the preseason. Jared Goff threw for 56 yards on 7 of 9 passing and Tim Boyle had 38 yards on 8 of 15 through the air for the Lions last week. Dwayne Haskins saw the majority of the time under center last week for Pittsburgh, and he had 161 yards passing and a TD. I think he'll have his hands full today though with what I expect to be an aggressive Lions rush. I'm banking on the "hungrier" team with more to work on to at the very least, keep this one competitive down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Detroit.Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-21-21 | Ravens v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
The 2nd pick of my STP is 9* on the Car Panthers at 7:00 ET. Outright win? Very possible. But in a contest which could very well be decided late, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The Ravens beat the Saints in Week 1 of the NFL preseason, while the Panthers are looking to rebound after losing to the Colts. The Ravens somehow managed to win last week despite posting 308 yards of offense, while allowing 366. Trace McSorley had 86 passing yards and one interception while Tyler Huntley had 79 yards passing. Once again starting quarterback Lamar Jackson won't see any time. The Panthers looked pretty good through three quarter last week, but then blew it in the fourth. They posted 313 yards and allowed 427. P.J. Walker led the Panthers with 161 passing yards and one touchdown while Will Grier had 31 passing yards. Clearly the focus for the home side will be on the defensive end this week. Last week it allowed 24 first downs. But I think we'll indeed see a better effort here in Week 2 in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line is, this is the preseason. It's not the regular season or playoffs. Judging a team's form from the previous week (whether good or bad), isn't helpful. This one definitely means a lot more to Carolina. As I say, I think the outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-21-21 | Jets v. Packers +2.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The 1st pick of my STP is a 9* on the GB Packers at 4:25 ET. The Jets are 1-0. The Packers are 0-1. I say that Green Bay is the "hungrier" dog in this fight and while I certainly wouldn't rule out an outright victory, my official call on this one will be to grab as many points as you can. The Jets are coming off a satisfying 12-7 win over the Giants. Mike White had 127 yards passing, while Zach Wilson threw for 63 yards. It was an awkward victory and I think they'll struggle again with consistency today, especially in this difficult road venue, facing a determined Green Bay side that's seeking its first win of the preseason. The Packers have a lot to work on for sure after their 26-7 loss to Houston. I had the Texans in that one. Jordan Love actually looked pretty good, finishing 12 of 17 for 122 yards and a touchdown. He left with an injury though. And then Kurt Benkert would go for 88 yards and an INT the rest of the way for the Packers. Both teams will be playing backups and wannabe's today. New York though is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine as a favorite. Give me the hungrier and more determined home side in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-20-21 | Bengals v. Washington Football Team -4.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game Of the Year is the Washington Football Team at 8:00 ET. This line opened -3.5. Then it was announced that Joe Burrow was not going to be playing at all for the visiting Bengals and the line climbed a few points higher. Regardless of who is under center for the Bengals, I like Washington to not only win on Friday night but to win by a comfortable margin. The Bengals are primed for an immediate letdown as well after their big win over Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the preseason, holding on for the 19-14 victory. Backup QB Kyle Shurmur had 108 yards and an interception on 12 of 19 passing while Brandon Allen threw for 77 yards and a pick as well. Washington is off a loss in New England. It was in contention in the first half, but then it took the foot off the gas. I don't expect the same thing to happen here though at home. Steven Montez has 108 yards passing, a touchdown, and an interception in the setback, while Taylor Heinicke threw for 86 yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick had 58 yards in his first game in a Washington uniform. Ron Rivera is known for taking the preseason more seriously than others, and in his first home game of the year with fans in the stands, I expect him to have his team fired up to perform. Expect this to translate into production on both sides of the field for the home side. Lay the points, the play is the Washington Football Team. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +3 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Eagles at 7:30 ET. The preseason has changed. There are now only three weeks being played. This is significant. Traditionally Week 3 of the preseason has been the "dress rehearsal" for the "real thing." That's the game in which the starters see most of the action. But with injuries on the rise, the preseason has been cut to just three games. What effect this will have on how or when starters will see action will differ moving forward. It's going to be a "game to game" thing. And it's going to be different from one team to the next, depending on just which areas they need to work on. Philadelphia looked great in the first half of its Week 1 matchup against the Steelers, as it went into the break with a 16-7 lead. The Eagles clearly took the foot off the gas in the second half though, getting outscored 17-0 the rest of the way. However, having back-to-back home games to open the preseason is not something that I believe the Eagles will take for granted here in Week 2, and before hitting the road in their finale. Polar opposite situation for the Patriots. They were down 7-6 at home to Washington in their preseason opener last weekend, before then outscoring The Football Team 16-6 in the second half. With that satisfying come from behind win in front of the home town crowd, I just can't help but feel the Patriots are primed for a major letdown here. Handicapping preseason NFL games from a "situational" standpoint is a great place to start. And for this pick, it's also where it's going to end. Regardless of who starts, from a situational standpoint, this one sets up great for the home side in my opinion and while the outright win certainly isn't out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-14-21 | Texans +3 v. Packers | Top | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 82 h 32 m | Show |
My NFLX 10* Week 1 AFC/NFC "GAME OF THE MONTH" is on the Hou Texans at 8:00 ET. The Houston Texans are coming off a four win season. Their starting QB DeShaun Watson is embroiled in an off-field controversy which will have a lasting effect on the organization moving forward. David Culley is the new head coach of Houston and he'll be eager to post a win here and to start a new narrative for the club. Houston has a decent stable of "backups." Watson isn't expected to play with Houston this year, so Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel will all see time in the preseason. The Packers have had to deal with plenty of off-field issues as well. Aaron Rodgers has finally decided to stay for at least one more year with the Packers, but he won't be seeing any time today. Instead it'll be Jordan Love and Kurt Benkert getting the snaps. The biggest weakness last year for Green Bay was on the defensive side. That'll be an issue again this season. But despite losing JJ Watt in FA, the Texans remain stout on that side of the ball, with veteran Vincent Taylor leading the way. Both teams have plenty of issues. If this was Week 1 of the regular season, I'd likely be backing the Packers in a blowout. But it's not Week 1 of the regular season, it's Week 1 of the preaseason. I think Houston will take this game much more seriously and while the outright is possible, in the end my official call is to grab as many points as you can. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-13-21 | Bills v. Lions | Top | 16-15 | Loss | -114 | 51 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Det Lions at 7:00 ET. The Bills are predicted to be a Top 5 team. However, this Week 1 Preseason game definitely "means" more to the Lions in my estimation. Remember, in this abbreviated preseason, starters will see even less time. And the time that backups and wannabe's DO have, will be even more precious. Buffalo is an exciting team. I'm excited for "Bills Mafia." QB Josh Allen just signed a huge contract. Overall last season the Bills averaged 31.3 PPG, while allowing 23.4. The Lions have a new head coach and a new QB under center. If this was Week 1 of the regular season, I'd likely be on the Bills in a blowout. But with almost their entire starting line-up resolved, Buffalo doesn't have a lot to work on the pre-season. David Blough and Tim Boyle are backing up Jared Goff in Detroit, and they'll be in a fight for that No. 2 spot throughout the preseason. The Lions averaged only 23.4 PPG, while allowing 32.4 last year, a big reason why there have been so many changes in the offseason. Look for the more determined home side to earn its first victory for its new coach. The play is the Lions. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-12-21 | Steelers +1 v. Eagles | Top | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* NFLX Rivalry Game of the Month is on the Pit Steelers at 7:30 ET. I like the Steelers to build off their Hall Of Fame Game victory. They beat the Cowboys by a score of 16-3. In this abbreviated pre-season, the backups and wannabes have even less time to impress, and any tiny advantages these players have is signficant. With one game under their belts, the Steelers are the savvy move here on Thursday in my opinion. The Eagles have a new head coach in Nick Siranni, and second-year QB Jalen Hurts is now the man under center with Carson Wentz having departed for the Colts. The Steelers' offense was shaky in the HOF Game, but the defense sure looked sharp. Mason Rudolph is fighting for a spot behind Big Ben, and will be in a constant competion with Dwayne Haskins and Joshua Dobbs. The defense forced three turnovers and had four sacks. Joe Flacco and Nick Mullins are going to see the majority of the snaps for the Eagles today. Suffice it to say, I trust neither against this opportunistic Steelers defensive unit. Yes, Siranni would LOVE to win his "first" game as head coach for his new team. But this is the preason. I say it's Mike Tomlin and the Steelers who are more organized and who will find a way to deliver on Thursday night. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-05-21 | Cowboys v. Steelers -1 | Top | 3-16 | Win | 100 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
My NFLX 10* Hall of Fame Game play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:00 ET Neither starting QB will see any action today. The Cowboys were a complete mess on the offensive side of the ball without Dak Prescott in the line-up last year and I believe that's going to again be the case in the Hall Of Fame Game. Dallas will also be without WR Amari Cooper. Garrett Gilbert will be getting the start under center for Dallas tonight (also Ben DiNucci and Cooper Rush will see time.) We'll also see the backups and wannabe's under WR and RB. Ben Roethlisberger won't be under center tonight for the Steelers, meaning you'd better get ready for a healthy dose of Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins. What I do really like about Pittsburgh in this one though, is that it will be giving RB Najee Harris considerable touches throughout this game and entire preseason. This is the Hall of Fame Game. Pretty much anything can happen. That said, the key talent that's out on the Cowboys offense is significant and their defense, which was a weak point last season, is also a concern this year. Pittsburgh finished with the No. 3 defense last year. Rudolph has seen considerable time under center in the regular season and is probably the best QB on the field tonight. Give me the Steelers to cover the small number. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-29-19 | Raiders v. Seahawks -2 | Top | 15-17 | Push | 0 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
My NFLX 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Sea Seahawks at 10:00 ET. Jon Gruden's first season back in the NFL went very poorly in 2018, as the Raiders finished 4-12 (last-place in the AFC West) and 6-10 ATS. Gruden has always had a good preseason record and he's been perfect so far in 2019, going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Raiders opened with a 14-3 home win over the disinterested Rams, then won 33-26 at Arizona in Week 2. Oakland made it THREE straight wins last Thursday with a 22-21 win over the Packers, a game played in Winnipeg, Manitoba. The contest was played on a field shortened to 80 yards for player safety. The end zones were marked by bright orange pylons at the 10-yard lines and there were no kickoffs. The field was reconfigured because of concerns about the areas where the goal posts for the CFL's Winnipeg franchise were removed and covered with turf. Before warmups, game officials and staff from both clubs examined the turf that covered the goal post spots for 110-yard CFL games. The goal posts would have been inside the NFL end zones. Packers coach Matt LaFleur decided to sit 33 players, including star QB Aaron Rodgers, yet the Raiders needed a Daniel Carlson 33-yard field goal with 8 seconds remaining to earn the one point win. Like Gruden, Seattle's Pete Carroll has an excellent preseason record and the Seahawks are 2-1 SU and ATS in 2019, losing only at Minnesota, another outstanding preseason team under head coach Mike Zimmer. Russell Wilson directed the Seahawks to a pair of TDs and a field goal in five possessions in two preseason games and it's unlikely that he will play in Thursday's preseason finale. Geno Smith seemed well ahead of Paxton Lynch entering the first preseason contest against Denver (Aug 8) but Lynch, playing against deeper Broncos reserves, out-played Smith that night while Smith played on the cyst in his knee. He had it removed the next day. Lynch was 11 for 15 for 109 yards and a touchdown pass. Smith sat out the Minnesota loss, while Lynch was 6 for 15 against the Vikings before he had his 'bell rung.' Lynch sat out Week 3 (concussion protocol) and Smith entered on the fourth series (following Wilson's solid effort), with the score 13-3. He led the Seahawks to scores on his first two drives, the kind of performance that may go a long way toward earning him the backup spot over Lynch. Smith led the Seahawks on drives of 48, 73 and 74 yards the first three times he was in the game, completing 10 of 16 passes for 117 yards and also rushing four times for 26 yards while adding a TD. Oakland wraps its preseason with this game in Seattle, returning from Winnipeg (won't here that again for awhile). It's hard to see Carr playing much (if at all) and that leaves Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman. For some reason, Gruden likes Peterman but why? Consider this. Peterman is arguably the worst QB in the history of the NFL, as no QB with at least 100 pass attempts in the last 20 years has a lower career passer rating than Peterman's 32.5! Carroll rarely needs motivation in a preseason game but note that the Raiders beat the Seahawks 30-19 in Week 4 of last year's preseason (in Seattle), as E.J. Manuel, a former NFL starter, threw four TD passes (Manuel is long gone). In last year's contest, Carroll's QBs were career fourth-stringer Austin Davis and then-rookie Alex McGough (now 'stinking it up' in Jacksonville). Here, we should see plenty of a highly-motivated Geno Smith (dangerous against non-starters) plus maybe some Paxton Lynch or rookie J.T. Barrett. No 4-0 preseason here for Oakland, as Seattle wins handily Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-24-19 | Broncos v. Rams -1 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 40 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 9:00 ET. The Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams get together Saturday in LA and neither team expects to play its starters very much. "Most of the guys you refer to as ‘starters’ will not play in the game (Saturday),” Denver head coach Vic Fangio said before practice on Thursday. “It’s our fourth (preseason) game, not our third, and we just felt like it’s the best thing to do for our team now.” As for LA, head coach Sean McVay has used his starters sparingly in the team's first two games and there is NO reason to expect him to do otherwise in this contest (more on that in a bit). The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. We'll have to wait until the regular season to judge if he was a good hire. The Broncos have played three preseason games, starting out with a 14-10 win over the Falcons in the Hall of Fame Game (needed a TD with 1 1/2 minutes remaining to beat a team which has now lost 12 straight preseason games.) Denver followed with a 22-14 loss at Seattle, before losing this past Monday at home to the 49ers, 24-15 The Rams looked disinterested in Week 1 in a 14-3 loss at Oakland, gaining just 190 total yards with just 10 FDs. Things weren't much better in Wee2, as the Rams lost in Hawaii 14-10 against the Cowboys. LA gained 270 yards (with 14 FDs) in that one but went scoreless in the second half. McVay has treated the preseason as merely exhibition games and it's worked well. He took over a franchise in 2017 that hadn't had a winning season since 2003 and has won back-to-back NFC West titles, going 11-5 in 2017 and 13-3 last year. Some may remember, the Rams almost beat the Pats in last year's Super Bowl. There can be little argument that McVay's reserves are better than Denver's. Flacco and Lock (team's No.2 QB) will NOT see time here, as Kevin Hogan will start, backed up by Brett Rypien. Hogan may have been 36-10 as Stanford's starting QB but he's played in just eight NFL games (one start), with four TDs and seven INTs (61.5 QB rating. Hogan is 13-of 30 (43.3%) for 104 yards (zero TDs and one INT) in the 2019 preseason. Rypien is a rookie who did throw the game-winning TD pass in the HOF game but hasn't played since. As for the Rams, Blake Bortles should see plenty of action at QB and let's not forget that he was the overall No. 3 pick in the 2014 draft by Jacksonville. He threw for 35 TDs and almost 4,500 yards in 2015 and in 2017, led the Jags to the AFC championship game at New England, where Jacksonville coughed up a 4th-quarter lead. As noted above, this game will be decided by the reserves but Fangio has made it well-known he has little interest in doing anything but keeping his team healthy. It is hardly a good situation that this will be Denver's fourth game in FOUR different cities this preseason, plus will be back on the field again next Thursday in Denver. Sure, McVay has played it close to the vest in the preseason but his team has gone 3-1 SU in home preseason games the last two years (lone loss came by two points). NOTE: This will be LA's LONE home game of the 2019 preseason. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-22-19 | Giants v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 7:00 ET. The New York Giants will play their first road game of the preseason on Thursday when they head to Cincinnati to take on the 1-1 Bengals. The Giants have been a big surprise, scoring 31 points in a nine-point win over the Jets on Aug 8 and then beat the Bears 32-13 last Friday. Eli Manning went 4-of-4 against the Bears for 42 yards and a TD, prized-rookie Daniel Jones has looked comfortable through two preseason games. He went 5-of-5 in Week 1 with a TD and the 11-of-14 for 161 yards in Week 2 and another TD. Is there a QB controversy? Reports say that Eli Manning will be the starting QB in Week 1 of action. With that said, expect Jones to get even more snaps and reps with the first unit this week. The Chiefs overwhelmed the Bengals at KC in Week 1, winning 38-17. However, Cincy rebounded in Week 2, winning 23-13 at Washington last Thursday. No. 1 QB Andy Dalton has thrown exactly nine passes in each of the first two games, completing 14 or 77.8%. However, he does not have a TD pass and has one INT. Rookie QB Ryan Finley was terrific in the win at Washington, completing 20-of-26 for 150 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Dalton should see a little more time here in this Week 3 (dress rehearsal) contest but expect Finley to keep getting significant work. The Giants have overachieved so far the first two weeks and away from home, expect a drop-off. OBJ is in Cleveland plus the team has all sorts of 'holes' in its receiving corps. WRs Corey Coleman is out of the season with a torn ACL, Sterling Shepard will not be playing in the preseason contests after suffering a broken thumb in last Thursday’s drills and Golden Tate is on suspension in four regular season games for taking banned substances that enhance playing performance. This marks Cincy's first home game of the preseason and marks the home debut of rookie head coach Zac Taylor. Note that Finley played at NC State and had just as good a year (arguably slightly better) than Daniel Jones had at Duke. Jones was the sixth overall pick by the Giants, while Finley went in the fourth round (104th overall). Will (can) Finley make a point, here? More importantly, expect a let down for the Giants after scoring 63 points in their first two games, while the Bengals win Taylor's home debut. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-19-19 | 49ers v. Broncos -1 | Top | 24-15 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Monday Night Game of the Year is on the Den Broncos at 8:00 ET. The 49ers had some high hopes for 2018 after finishing hot the previous season, but the team was riddled with injuries to key players, most notably QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo is expected to be available by the start of the regular season and as I noted in taking the 49ers (over the Cowboys) in NFLX Week 1, San Francisco should have one of the better backup QB battles in the league. C.J. Beathard (10 starts) and Nick Mullens (eight starts) have both "had their moments" in regular season action. Beathard was 13 of 17 for 141 yards and Mullens 11 of 17 for 105 vs Dallas, (each had a TDP and an INT). The 48ers' D held Dallas scoreless in the second half and the 49ers won 17-9. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span The Broncos eked out a 14-10 HOF game win over the Falcons but as all know, EVERYONE beats Atlanta in the preseason recently (Falcons are 0-11 since 2017). The Broncos then lost 22-14 in Week 1 at Seattle but as most know as well, Pete Carroll is one of the NFL's best preseason coaches. Joe Flacco will be Denver's starting QB come the regular season but he won't see much time this preseason but I would expect him to see some action in Denver's 'home opener,' which is also Fangio's first home game. Drew Lock completed 17 of 28 for 180 yards (TD and INT) last week and is playing a lot in these preseason games, getting familiar with the offense and what is expected of him. San Francisco's Kyle Shanahan has now won each of his first three NFLX Week 1 games as the Niners' head coach but note the last two preseasons, he's 1-5 SU the other six. He almost HAS to win to cover in this contest and I believe the motivation all sides with the home team in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-16-19 | Dolphins v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game of the Week is on the TB Bucs at 7:30 ET. Miami’s rookie head coach Brian Flores picked up a "W" in his debut, as the Dolphins edged the Atlanta Falcons 34-27 last Thursday. It's great to get a win but the Dolphins were fortunate. The Falcons have now lost 10 straight preseason games and it's easy to see why. Atlanta was The Falcons were flagged for 12 penalties (97 yards) and with the game tied at 27-all at the two-minute warning, Atlanta turned it over on downs by failing on fourth-and-nine from its own 16-yard-line! How about that for game-management! Two plays later, Miami scored the winning TD! Bruce Arians is not new to coaching, as his regular season record is 58–33–1 (.636) and he's earned Coach-of-the-Year honors twice, in 2012 (Indy) and 2014 (Arizona). However, he is new at Tampa. His Bucs’ offense gained 479 yards and gained 31 FDs at Pittsburgh last week but came up on the short end of a 30-28 final (TB went for two after each of its final two TDs, failing both times). Ryan Fitzgerald had some good games for the Bucs last season and is now expected to be Miami's starting QB (note: he had better skill players to work with at Tampa Bay). Josh Rosen is also looking to win the starting QB job and got plenty of work vs the Falcons. However, he was under pressure regularly by an opponent (Atlanta) that excels in losing preseason games (now 10 straight for the Falcons). In the end, Rosen looked like no more than an average NFL quarterback. Bruce Arians is loaded with energy and his early press conferences strongly indicate he intends to be aggressive and wants to get a winning attitude established. The Bucs have gone 5-11 in consecutive seasons and Jameis Winston has won only 21 of 56 career starts as he enters the final year of his rookie contract. Winston finished 5 of 6 for 40 yards with a 9-yard touchdown pass to Chris Godwin in his lone series of action vs Pittsburgh. The Bucs faced third down just once during his 12-play, 81-yard drive. "It was a perfect drive," Arians said. "We ran the ball well, and that sets up a lot of stuff for us. I thought Jameis took what was there." I expect to see Winston a little more here and note that the Bucs have beaten the Dolphins in FOUR of the teams' five preseason meetings going back to 2011. Great spot for the home team here vs its in-state rival. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-10-19 | Cowboys v. 49ers -4 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 58 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the SF 49ers at 9:00 ET. The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers meet Saturday at Levi's Stadium in the final game of NFLX Week 1 action. Jason Garrett took over as the Cowboys' head coach during the 2011 season,. He went 8-8 in each of the next three years but Dallas has won the NFC East three times over the last five seasons. However, Dallas has yet to advance past the Divisional Round in the postseason. Is this finally going to be a make-or-break season for him? Jim Harbaugh took over at San Francisco in 2011, with the 49ers having suffered EIGHT consecutive non-winning seasons. He led the 49ers to a 36-11-1 record the next three seasons, losing twice in the NFC championship game and once in the Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, Harbaugh and the 49ers mutually agreed to part ways. The 49ers have followed with records of 5-11, 2-14, 6-10 and 4-12, the last two under current head coach Kyle Shanahan. There is no doubt that Garrett is under a ton of pressure to win in 2019 but this is the preseason. Dallas was 0-4 in last year's preseason and under Garrett, the Cowboys are just 13-20 SU and 11-22 ATS in the exhibition season. Prescott won't see much if any time in this one and the team's backup QB battle between Cooper Rush and Mike White features players without a single NFL start, with neither having played well in limited opportunities. Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be ready by the start of the regular season but unlike Dallas, San Francisco should have one of the better backup QB battles in the league. C.J. Beathard (10 starts) and Nick Mullens (eight starts) have both "had their moments" in regular season action. Don't be surprised if either (both?) carve up the second and third-unit defenses of the Cowboys. The 49ers are 2-0 in Week 1 preseason games Shanahan, scoring 27 and 24 points in those games (better than most!). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-08-19 | Jaguars v. Ravens -4 | Top | 0-29 | Win | 100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Bal Ravens at 7:30 ET. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens meet Thursday at M&T Bank Stadium. The Jags are "all in" with Nick Foles at QB but he is hardly expected to see any real action in this road game (note: Jags host the Eagles, Foles' former team, next Thursday). As for the Ravens, they've officially entered "the Lamar Jackson era." That said, like Foles, Jackson won't be around for long on Thursday night. We know that second and third-stringers typically determine Week 1 winners (SU & ATS) but what I can't ignore is that John Harbaugh leads his team into the 2019 preseason on a 13-game winning streak, going 11-2 ATS (that's an 85% winning situation). Sure, the Ravens will eventually lose a preseason game but isn't that a reasonable person would have said entering 2018, but Baltimore then went 5-0, which began with a HOF game win. Why "step in front of the Ravens' winning streak" with a Jacksonville team which will feature QBs Tanner Lee, Alex McGough and Gardner Minshew. That trio has combined for ZERO pass attempts in an NFL game! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-26-18 | Bengals +1.5 v. Bills | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cincinnati Bengals (4:00 EST). The Bengals enter a “make or break” season in 2018/19 and they’ve come out of their corner swinging early with a 2-0 NFLX start. I think Cincinnati keeps the foot on the gas for one more week. Buffalo enters at 1-1. Cincinnati scored all of its points in the second half of its 21-13 win over Dallas last week. QB Andy Dalton took a few snaps and finished 5 of 7 for 41 yards, while backup Matt Barkley threw a TD strike as well in the fourth quarter. Third stringer Jeff Driskel had 119 yards and an INT. The Bengals were tough defensively last year and that’s so far been the case in the early going as well this season. Buffalo has a QB battle going on right now after AJ McCarron suffered a collarbone fracture. Rookie Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman are now duking it out for the No. 1 job. Peterman is 17 of 30 for 231 yards, two TD’s and an INT so far in the preseason, while Allen has gone 18 of 32 for 176 yards and two major scores. Injury news for the Bills sees DT Kyle Williams out after suffering a knee injury against Cleveland. This is indeed just the preseason, but I still think it’s worth pointing out that the Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last ten on the road. I like the Bengals’ QB’s and Cincinnati’s defense has also impressed early. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-25-18 | Titans v. Steelers -4 | Top | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* 35-CLUB PLAY is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (4:00 EST). Both teams come in off brutal losses, but I think Pittsburgh will be the one to bounce back in Week 3. Tennessee enters off a 30-14 home loss to Tampa Bay, while Pittsburgh was destroyed 51-34 at Lambeau. If recent history is any precedence, then the Steelers have to be liking their chances today though because when these teams met in the regular season last year Pittsburgh would smash Tennessee 40-17. Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota was 4 of 7 for 80 yards and a TD last week. Backup Blaine Gabbert had 116 yards and a major score as well. WR Taywan Taylor had a huge game in a losing cause with 94 receiving yards and two TD catches. Both Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker will be out with injury this week. I think the Steelers come out and play with aggression from the very start as they look to atone for last week’s beatdown. Mason Rudolph was 5 of 11 for 47 yards, one TD and one INT. James Washington the rookie had four catches for 92 yards, while RB James Conner had 57 yards on five carries. Whether Roethlisberger plays or not today, I like the home side here. Tennessee simply doesn’t put a lot of stock into actually winning preseason games, as evidenced by the fact that it’s just 1-5 ATS in its last six preseason contests. Besides, the Steelers have put up 65 points already over the first two games with Big Ben on the sidelines anyways. Conversely, the Titans’ QB’s have mustered a total of two TD’s over the first two games. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-18-18 | 49ers +1.5 v. Texans | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 46 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco 49ers (10*) San Francisco got the better of Dallas 24-21 last week, while Houston beat Kansas City 17-10 on the road. It was the way the 49ers closed that makes me think they’ll come out fired up here, as they were down 14-0 before then storming back to shock the Cowboys. Nick Mullens was 11 of 13 for 141 yards one INT and one game winning TD. CJ Beathard was 10 of 20 for 181 yards. Jimmy Garoppolo was just 3 of 6 for 34 yards, but he’s expected to see a lot more time today. Houston is expected to give QB DeShaun Watson a little more playing time in Week 2 after he only saw one snap in Week 1. Backup QB Brandon Weeden struggled in the regular season after Watson went down last year, but he looked decent in the Week 1 victory by going 9 of 11 for 97 yards and two TD’s. Watson though isn’t expected to play much and the 49ers depth at the QB position makes them the correct call in this meaningless Week 2 contest in my opinion. Play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-17-18 | Giants v. Lions -3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Lions (7:00 EST). New York comes in off a 20-10 home loss in Week 1 to Cleveland, while the Lions return home after a 16-10 loss in Oakland last week. When these teams met in the regular season last year, Detroit won 24-10 on the road. Giants’ starting QB Eli Manning was 4 of 7 for 26 yards last week. Last year he had a poor 19/13 TD/INT ratio. Backup QB Davis Webb was just 9 of 22 for 70 yards. RB Saquon Barkley had 43 yards on five carries, including a 39 yard dash. Detroit looks to bounce back here after falling in Oakland in Week 1. QB Matt Cassel was 10 of 18 for 81 yards and zero TD’s. QB Jake Durock had 12 passes for 84 yards. RB Kenyon Johnson was a bright spot with 34 yards on seven carries. A large part of the Lions’ defensive unit sat out last week, but more starters are expected to see action this week, including DE Ziggy Ansah. Is it relevant that Detroit is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six against the NFC? It certainly doesn’t hurt! And note that the Giants are now just 1-4 ATS in their last five preseason contests. I think that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-10-18 | Falcons +3.5 v. Jets | Top | 0-17 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Falcons (7:30 EST). Atlanta went 0-4 in the preseason last year and then went 10-6 in the regular season. New York was 2-2 in the preseason last year and then it went 5-11 in the regular season. The Falcons are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, including players like Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Tevin Coleman, Devonta Freeman and defensive standouts Deion Jones and Vic Beasley. Atlanta has a battle for backup QB position between Kurt Benkert, Matt Schaub and Garrett Grayson this pre-season. The Jets were a disaster last year, but the organization has hope with draft pick QB Sam Darnold expected to compete for the starters position this season. Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell form a potentially potent backfield. The defense got better in the offseason with the acquisition of Trumaine Johnson. Expect to see a lot of Josh McCown under center tonight. I think the depth with their secondary players carries the Falcons to solid a cover in their first game of the 2018 preseason. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-09-18 | Redskins +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 13 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Redskins (10*) 7:30 EST New England lost in the Super Bowl last year and I think it’ll stumble in its preseason opener. Washington was 2-2 in the preseason last year, before then finishing 7-9 overall. The Patriots were 1-3 in the preseason, before finishing 13-3 in the regular season. Washington acquired Alex Smith in the offseason to replace Kirk Cousins at QB. Sith had 4,042 passing yards and a 26/5 TD/INT ratio. Colt McCoy will see most of the time tonight though and this is his third year in the system. Kevin Hogan will also see some snaps. The Patriots are one of the most talked about franchises in all of sports, led by QB Tom Brady. Brady will see no time in this one though. In fact, don’t expect to see any of the Pats’ key starters suiting up tonight. That means we’ll be seeing a lot of back-up QB’s Brian Hoyer and Danny Etling. Etling will make his NFL debut tonight, while Hoyer posted a 4/4 TD/INT with the 49ers last year. Washington’s back-up QB’s are a lot better than New England’s and their familiarity of the current system make the Redskins the correct call in this Week 1 preseason matchup. Grab as many points as you can, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-31-17 | Seahawks v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* 34-Club Play on the Oakland Raiders (10:00 EST). I base my picks on many different things. I consider myself quite adept at picking which team I feel will be the more “motivated” in a particular matchup and that’s the case with Oakland tonight. No need to overanalyze this selection in my opinion. Seattle is 3-0 SU/ATS in the preseason, while Oakland is 0-3 SU/ATS. The preseason is meaningless, however the Raiders would love nothing more than to get a single victory before heading into the real thing. A win in front of the home town crowd would be big for the team and the fan base. Conversely, Seattle has already accomplished what it set out to do in the preseason. I’m expecting the Hawks to simply go through the motions today as the team looks to avoid any serious injuries to any of the back-ups and wannabe’s. And it’s as simple as that for me on this one. This play is not about who is on the field of play today, or who plays for how long etc, it’s about which of these two clubs is the overall more motivated. Play on Oakland. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-27-17 | Bears +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST). Both teams are 1-1 SU/ATS as we head into Week 3 of the 2017 preseason. Tennessee beat the Jets before then falling to Carolina, while the Bears lost to Denver before then beating the Cardinals The Bears will once again be getting a good long look at rookie QB Mitch Trubisky in this one, so far he’s 18 for 25 for 166 yards, one TD and no INT’s, while also rushing for 38. Tennessee is expected to give Marcus Mariota the entire first half, so far he has just 11 passes through the first two games. Note though that Mariota will be without two of his top pass catchers in Eric Deicker and Corey Davis to injury. I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series, while Tennessee is just 7-21-2 ATS in its last 30 in front of the home town crowd. I think Trubisky can take advantage of this Titans defense, which struggled in last week’s loss. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Bears. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-26-17 | Raiders v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 83 h 47 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Dallas Cowboys (8:00 EST). These are two teams with big aspirations, but I think the Cowboys will find a way to get the job done in their own stadium. Dallas was 13-3 last year and then fell at home to Green Bay in the playoffs. Oakland was 12-4, but lost starting QB Derek Carr in Week 16 of the regular season, causing the team to predictably get bounced in the first round to the Texans. Carr was 7 of 9 for 100 yards and two TD’s last week, but his team would utlimately fall 24-21. Lee Smith and Michael Crabtree caught the TD passes. Dak Prescott is the man in Dallas now, he’d win 13 of his 14 starts last year and throw 23 TD’s to just four INT’s. Prescott was 7 of 8 for 108 yards and a TD last week, while RB Darren McFadden had 59 yards on nine carries. I think Prescott outduels Carr in this one and I like Dallas to continue its progression on the defensive side of the ball as well. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-24-17 | Dolphins v. Eagles -3.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 35 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM on the Philadelphia Eagles (7:00 EST). Both teams come into this one at 1-1 SU/ATS. With Week’s 1 and 2 in the books, Week 3 represents the all important “dress rehearsal.” These teams are evenly matched on paper, but I think that the home field advantage will prove to be the deciding factor once it’s all said and done. Miami struggled in a 31-7 loss to Baltimore last week, while Philadelphia enters off a momentum/confidence building 20-16 victory over the Bills. Miami QB Jay Cutler was three of six for 24 yards. Backup QB Matt Moore had 11 yards on three passes. RB Jay Ajayi had two carries for a loss of two yards. As horrible as the offense looked overall last week, the defense was even worse. Which doesn’t bode well in my opinion in facing a focused Carson Wentz this evening. Matt McGloin saw the majority of snaps last week and looked decent under center for Philly, but Wentz will see most of the action today. The Eagles looked especially quick on the defensive side of the ball and I think the unit will have another big night against this shaky Miami offense that’s still looking for an identity at this point. Miami only put up 120 yards of offense last week and it doesn’t appear as if it will have any easier of a time in this raucous atmosphere. I think Philadelphia’s depth at QB and the home field factor prove to be too much for the floundering Fish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-20-17 | Saints +3 v. Chargers | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New Orleans Saints (8:00 EST). Both teams are coming off disappointing Week 1 NFLX openers. New Orleans will be eager to atone for a loss to the Browns, while the Chargers were crushed by Seattle in their new home last weekend. Drew Brees didn’t play last week and is expected to see limited to no time today as well. The Saints have three guys battling for the backup position, as Chase Daniel was four of six for 27 yards over the first two series. Garret Grayson then took over and was 11 of 16 for 126 yards and a 92.2 passer rating, the followed by Ryan Nassib, who was 10 of 14 for 110 yards, a TD and a 98.2 passer rating. The Saints also looked decent defensively in picking up four sacks. Philip Rivers connected with Antonio Gates for the Chargers on the opening drive last week, but then everything took a turn for the worse after that for LA. The Bolts looked especially weak on the defensive side in conceding 458 yards of offense, including 325 through the air. I’ll point out as well that the Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last ten on the road, while the Chargers are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 “home” situations. Rivers isn’t expected to see much time in this one either, which clearly doesn’t bode well for this struggling LA offense. The Saints though have three capable backs which have to be liking their chances tonight against this porous Chargers’ secondary. While I wouldn’t be stunned by the outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on New Orleans. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-19-17 | Jets v. Lions -5.5 | Top | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Detroit Lions (7:30 EST). Both teams are 1-0 SU and ATS, as Detroit pulled out a 24-10 victory over Indianapolis, while New York beat Tennessee 7-3 at home. The Jets were just 5-11 last year and have a laughable QB battle going on right now between Josh McCown, Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg. New York looked pretty good defensively, finishing with eight sacks on the night, but will now obviously be tested on a much greater level against the high-flying Lions. Detroit backup QB Jake Ruddock had two TD passes last week, each to rookie WR Kenny Golladay. Starter Matt Stafford only saw one series, but he is expected to get a few more tonight. I’ll point out that New York is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven on the road, while Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home. I have a hard time seeing the Jets mustering much of an offense today. Should be a spanking from start to finish, lay the points with confidence. Play on the Lions. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-18-17 | Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Seattle Seahawks (10:00 EST). I use many different techniques to handicap games. For this selection I’m not focusing so much on who will actually be on the field of play tonight, but more on the “situation” that both sides find themselves in coming into this contest. Minnesota opened the NFL preseason with a convincing 17-10 win at Buffalo in Week 1. Now the Vikes have to travel across the country for a late night West Coaster, before then heading home for Week’s 3 and 4. With a victory on the road already and with their eyes already onto their Week 3 matchup at home against the 49ers, tonight’s contest in Seattle sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Vikings. The Seahawks absolutely annihilated the Chargers 48-17 in Week 1 and should be even more fired up tonight in the first game in front of the home town crowd. The backups and wannbe’s all looked great for Seattle and we should expect the starters to see even more action this evening. It’s a great situational play as I’m expecting another Seahawk rout from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-17-17 | Bucs +1.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 34 h 39 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:00 EST). The Bucs will be ready for a much better showing after falling 23-12 to the Bengals on the road last week. Conversely, it would appear as if this could be a classic “letdown” spot for the Jags after their big Week 1 road victory in New England. Jameis Winston was 9 of 13 on the opening drive. He should see a bit more time today. The Bucs will also be leaning heavily on WR Mike Evans this year, last week had four catches for 47 yards. Tampa looked sharp defensively as well, allowing a total of 176 yards. Jacksonville was playing like it was in the Super Bowl in Week 1 and managed a victory on the road against the defending champs. QB Chad Henne had a 97-yard TD pass to Keelan Cole, while third-stringer Brandon Allen also converted for a major score. I’ll point out though that Tampa is 6-1 ATS in its last seven on the road, while Jacksonville is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after scoring 30 points or more on the road in its previous outing. I like the Bucs to find a way to get the better of their contented cross state rivals. Play on Tampa. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-12-17 | Raiders v. Cardinals -3 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 37 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Arizona Cardinals (10:00 EST). Oakland was 12-4 last year and to say it has big expectations this season would be an understatement. QB Derek Carr had a break-out campaign, before then breaking his leg in Week 16. Third-string QB Connor Cook faltered in the first round of the playoffs. Carr is epxected to see no time tonight. RB Marshawn Lynch is also expected to see limited to no time whatsoever. Arizona was just 7-8-1 last year and will be looking to regain its 2015 form. One big advantage that the Cards have today though over the Raiders is that they’ve already played a preseason contest this year, falling 20-18 to the Cowboys in the Hall of Fame Game (some won, some lost and some pushed on that one depending where/when you got down.) The preseason will be a time for the Raiders to fill a few holes and to try and not sustain any major injuries to key backups, as they’re already stacked top to bottom with the majority of their team in place. The Cardinals though have plenty of position battles going on, so combined with having already played a game, I absolutely feel that the value tonight is on the home side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-11-17 | Steelers v. Giants -3 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -125 | 58 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* 34-Club Play is on the New York Giants (7:00 EST). Pittsburgh doesn’t put much stock in the preseason. Or at least it didn’t last year in going just 1-3. The Steelers would then go on to make a run at the AFC Championship. New York finished 2-2 in the preseason and also made the playoffs last year. The Steelers will once again have Ben Roethlisberger under center in Week 1 of the regular season, but Big Ben will likely see no time whatsoever tonight. Pittsburgh was tenth in scoring last year and was led offensively by RB Le’Veon Bell, who will also be sitting this one out. Bell is in fact holding out right now, which leaves Pittsburgh very thin at RB. De’Angelo Williams was let go and third round pick James Conner is injured. The Steelers were one dimensional without Bell in the line-up in the AFC Championship Game (injured) and without Roethlisberger playing either, I have a hard time seeing where the visitors’ offense will come from today. Giants’ QB Eli Manning will also be sitting this one out. New York got the job done last year with its defensive play though, finishing second in the league in allowing only 17.8 PPG. The Giants’ defense will once again be a strength this season and I think its depth will prove to be a big difference maker tonight. No need to overanalyze this meaningless preseason Week 1 contest. I’m giving the big nod to New York in this one because of its defense. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-10-17 | Saints v. Browns -3 | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 36 h 8 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (8:00 EST). Both teams missed the playoffs last year. Both teams have plenty to work on in the preseason. Cleveland has Brock Osweiler under center and he’ll see a bunch of snaps today. Osweiler didn’t work out in Texas, but he was solid in Denver and has a big opportunity at redemption this season. He’ll also be sharing time with Cody Kessler. It’s a classic QB battle to open the year for Cleveland and I think this competition will prove to be the difference maker tonight. New Orleans knows who will be under center to open the year, as Drew Brees once again had a huge campaign in 2016/17 (5,208 yards, 37 TD’s.) The Saints also signed veteran RB Adrian Peterson (who will see limited to no time whatsoever in this one.) New Orleans was able to put points on the board no problem last year, so the team will hardly be looking to work on that aspect of its game tonight. Clearly the Saints will be focusing on the defensive side of the ball this preseason after finishing among the bottom feeders in most statistical categories on that side of the ball. With the Browns focusing on offense and the Saints focusing on defense in this meaningless Week 1 preseason contest, I’m going to give the advantage to Cleveland. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-09-17 | Texans +3 v. Panthers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Houston Texans (7:30 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. | |||||||
09-01-16 | Patriots v. Giants -2.5 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the New York Giants (7:00 EST). The NFL preseason is meaningless. And if there was one week more meaningless than any of the others, it’s the fourth week. Teams have by and large made all the big decisions by this point and the final stanza simply offers an opportunity to fill a few “niche” voids. With starters on both sides of the ball seeing extreme limited to no time whatsoever, I base my fourth week NFLX picks on “situations.” In my opinion, this one simply means more to the Giants than to the Patriots. The Pats are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the preseason and they’re ready to start the year with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. New York though is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS so far in the preseason. With one last chance to impress in front of the home town crowd, I think the Giants are the correct call here as I look for Bill Belichick and the Pats to simply go through motions today. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-25-16 | Cowboys v. Seahawks -5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Seattle Seahawks (10:00 EST). The talk of the preseason so far has been the play of Dallas Cowboys’ backup QB Dak Prescott, who in last week’s 41-14 victory over the Dolphins, would finish 12 of 15 for 199 yards and two TD’s. Both Tony Romo and Prescott will get playing time today, but clearly the competition is going to be ramped up on the road in this extremely hostile environment. The Seahawks are 1-1 in the preseason winning 17-16 in Kansas City in Week 1 and then falling 18-11 at home to the Vikes last Thursday. Backup QB Trevone Boykin was 10 of 20 for 127 yards and an INT. Russell Wilson is hoping for improved offensive line play this season, so far the unit has looked a little shaky though as he was sacked four times in his limited action last week. Thomas Rawls is the starting RB, but he’s yet to see time this preseason and won’t be in tonight’s game either. Seattle though is blessed in that position right now, we can expect to see a heavy dose of Christine Michael and Troymaine Pope. Week 3 of the NFL preseason means that the starters will see the most time today. Romo may see a quarter of action, he’s expected to see limited time again this week. Prescott has looked great versus backups and wannabe’s, but is in for a rude awakening in facing this opportunistic Seattle defense. Wilson should see the majority of snaps in this game and I’m expecting the pro bowler to be the difference maker today (also note that Cowboys’ star WR Dez Bryant has been ruled out for this one because of injury, which is a considerable factor taken into consideration here). I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
08-20-16 | Chiefs +1 v. Rams | Top | 20-21 | Push | 0 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Kansas City Chiefs (9:00 EST). LA would come from behind to beat the Cowboys 28-24 in its preseason opener last week, failing to cover the 5-point spread. I think the home side is going to have a predictable letdown tonight though as I believe it’ll get caught “looking ahead” to its all important Week 3 matchup (the week when the starters see most of the playing time). Kansas City on the other hand plays with a bit more incentive today after falling 17-16 at home to Seattle on a 37-yard pass from Trevone Boykin with no time left on the clock. The Chiefs looked pretty good defensively versus the Seahawks and I think they’ll have a big day today as well. Kansas City has a QB battle on its hands, as coach Andy Reid has five pivot’s currently figting it out for the backup roll. Rams first round pick Goff struggled last week, going 4 of 9 for 38 yards, including an INT. Case Keenum looked decent, going 6 of 7 for 58 yards, while Sean Mannion was 18 of 25 for 147 yards and three TD’s. LA though looked horrible defensively considering it was up against a rookie QB in Dak Prescott, who finished 10 of 12 for 139 yards and two TD’s. Kansas City has the upperhand at QB today with Alex Smith and Nick Foles both expected to see time. I’m banking on the Chiefs responding after last week’s last-second setback. Good luck…Larry |
Service | Profit |
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Ray Monohan | $1,072 |
Tom Macrina | $601 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
William Burns | $288 |
Ricky Tran | $269 |
Big Al McMordie | $234 |
Joey Tron | $165 |
Jesse Schule | $21 |
Tim Michael | $18 |