The Iceman’s Week 1 NCAAF Teaser Report – September 1-3

Jesse Schule’s Top 5 Side & Total Teasers for Week 1 NCAAF September 1-3, 2022

My Thoughts on Teasers and Parlays

The consensus among the older generation of professional sports bettors is that teasers and parlays are for suckers. The argument against betting teasers (and parlays) is that when it comes to teasers, you need to win each game 73% of the time in order to be profitable. That’s in comparison to just 53% to break even when betting against the spread.  There are also those who will argue that if your winnings would be greater betting on each leg individually, that is proof that your parlay is a sucker’s bet.

While I agree that it’s far from sharp to parlay a handful of moneyline favorites, and that for the most part there is little value betting teasers, I do make an exception. When the bookmakers allow you to parlay or tease the side and total in a game when those results may correlate. Lets take a look at my favorite side and total teasers for this week.

West Virginia vs Pittsburgh – West Virginia + Under

The Backyard Brawl is back on, and West Virginia comes in as the underdog. The line has been bet up to +7.5, and that allows us to tease them up to +14.  The total of 51.5 goes up to 58. The most recent meeting between these rivals ended with West Virginia winning by a final score of 21-20. Four of the last five meetings between these teams were decided by six points or less. Both teams have new quarterbacks and new offensive coordinators. Kedon Slovis takes over under center at Pittsburgh, but Pat Narduzzi and Frank Cignetti are likely to put a lot more focus on running the football.

They face a stout Mountaineers defense, and it sure seems like a team that lost a Heisman contender QB and a Biletnikoff WR is asked to cover a lot of points here. JT Daniels should be an upgrade at QB for the Mountaineers, but it’s the defense that should keep them in this game. The Mountaineers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in September, and the under is 5-1-1 in the Mountaineers last seven versus the ACC.

Oregon vs Georgia – Oregon + Under

Bettors have short memories, and they seem to have an image in their minds of Georgia as National Champions. Stetson Bennett played perhaps the best two games of his life in last year’s playoffs. Is it realistic to expect Bennett to be that quarterback, and Georgia to be that team in Week 1 of the 2022 season? Dan Lanning was the defensive coordinator at Georgia last year, and he is now the head coach for the Ducks. He inherits plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and the Ducks got an upgrade at quarterback with Bo Nix coming over from Auburm.

This line has been bet up as high as +17.5, allowing us to tease up Oregon to +24. The total of 53 will move to 59.5 on a two team 6.5 point teaser. The Bulldogs lost a ton of talent from last year’s championship squad. Keep in mind they scored just 10 points in a win over Clemson in Week 1 last year. The under is 16-7 in Bulldogs last 23 games in September, and they have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 11 overall.

Notre Dame vs Ohio State – Ohio State + Over

Marcus Freeman replaces the the winningest coach in Notre Dame history, but during his tenure the Brian Kelly failed to get the Irish over the hump. Blowout losses in the National Championship Game, the ACC Championship Game and two first round playoff games, players and fans were ready for a change. With uncertainty at the quarterback position, and a first year head coach making his regular season debut, this looks like less than an ideal spot for the Irish to open their season.

The Buckeyes finished first in the BIG10 in scoring last season, averaging 45.7 points per game. With C.J. Stroud returning at quarterback and TreVeyon Henderson at running back, they are primed to pick up right where they left off last season. Their defense struggled to stop the run last season, but new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is expected to right the ship.

The over is 7-2 in the Fighting Irish last nine versus the Big Ten, and they have gone over the number in four of their last five road games. The Buckeyes have been bet up as high as -17, and it will likely go higher before kickoff. We will tease them down to -10.5 and get the total down from 59 to 52.5.

Utah State vs Alabama – Utah State + Under

Of all my Week 1 teasers, this one has the strongest side and total correlation. Alabama has been bet up to -42.5, and after we tease Utah State to +49, we look at the total of 62.5, and tease it up to 69. The question isn’t whether or not Alabama can cover this game, it’s a matter of how invested is Nick Saban going to be in letting his starters play in the second half when he has Texas on deck the following week.

The under is 4-1 in the Aggies last five versus the SEC, and they have gone under in four straight non conference games. The Crimson Tide are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in September, and they have failed to cover in four straight versus the Mountain West.

Louisville vs Syracuse – Syracuse + Over

The star power of Malik Cunningham is undeniable, but I think people aren’t being honest with themselves about how good the rest of this Louisville team is. The defense was well below average last season, allowing 27 points per game (76th nationally). Syracuse ranked 121st nationally averaging just 158 passing yards per game last year, but new offensive coordinator Robert Anae should spice things up a little.

This is a revenge spot for the Orange after losing 41-3 at Louisville last year. Playing at the Carrier Dome should help. The home team has won five straight in this series and eight of the last 10. The Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in September. The teams have gone over the total in four of the last five meetings. I expect both teams to score their share of points here in a back and forth contest. With the line bet up to +4.5, we can tease Syracuse to +11, and bring the total down from 57 to 50.5.

 

 

 

 


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Free picks

Game Details
Oct 04 '22, 3:00 PM in 1h
Soccer | Rangers vs Liverpool
Play on: Liverpool -2¼ -106 at BetVegas
Game Analysis

This is a Free play on Liverpool.

Rangers have lost their last two Champions League matches by a combined score of 7-0 to Napoli and Ajax, and they face a daunting task at Anfield today. Liverpool won 2-1 over Ajax in their most recent Champions League match, but lost 4-1 to Napoli prior to that. The Reds are 11 points out of first place in the Premier League, despite having the 3rd best goal differential. They have only played four home games in the Premier League this season, outscoring the opposition 15-5 in those matches. This should be a very one-sided game, with Liverpool winning by three or more goals.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Pick Released on Oct 04 at 10:56 am

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