Today’s Best Free Sports Betting Picks and Predictions From Our Experts

Free Total Annihilator On Sparks vs Mercury under 178½ -110

1* Free Play on Sparks +3½ -110

1* Free Pick on Sparks/Mercury: under 178½

The market is asking you to pay top dollar for a Phoenix Over trend that doesn't match the defensive numbers on the floor.

Phoenix's last 12 games went Over 11 times, and that's the case people will lean on.

I get it.

But the Mercury are posting a 105.4 defensive rating through their first 5 games, which is a real number on a real sample with the current roster.

That's not a 178.5 defense.

The Sparks are the reason this total is sky-high.

Los Angeles is giving up a 121.3 defensive rating, and Kelsey Plum at 26.8 PPG is going to score regardless.

I'm not arguing the Sparks side of the scoreboard goes quiet.

The pace concern is the strongest opposition point.

Both teams sit at 97.5 and 97.44, and a fast game raises the floor on totals.

Fair.

But pace alone doesn't get you to 179 when one of the two offenses is run by a Sparks team turning it over on 21% of possessions.

That's the worst tov_pct in the stat pack, and it directly caps their scoring ceiling regardless of how fast they push.

Phoenix is also on 2 days rest versus the Sparks' 4.

Coach Tibbetts has publicly emphasized re-establishing defensive identity.

When a coach calls out defense pre-game, that usually shows up in the half-court sets.

The number is the play here. 178.5 is asking both teams to be elite on the same night.

Los Angeles has been elite at exactly one thing: giving up points.

Take the value.

I like the Under

At 3 eastern the Coup De France Final Headlines Soccer and we are backing RC Lens to win despite the high line Lens looks to win their first ever Coup Final and they are likely to get it done today. Lens has found the back of the net 16 times in 4 Coup De France matches. As for Nice they are very hard to breakdown and have gone unbeaten in 7 of the last 8 in the head to head with Lens. That Said Lens had a Solid Ligue 1 season and will likely possess the ball for most of the match as Nice likes to stay strong on defense and rely on counters to generate offense. Nice rarely concedes more than once in this tournament. Based on current form we will back Lens to emerge with a win. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Take San Jose over Portland (9:30 p.m. EST, Saturday May 23) This is the last match before the International Break for the World Cup. San Jose is second place in the Western Conference and enters the week five points off the best mark in the entire MLS. This side is a legit championship contender with a +17 goal differential through 14 matches. Compare that to Portland, at 12th in the Western Conference with a -4 goal differential. Both teams will put extra emphasis on getting points before the break, but the Earthquakes have the players and coaching to get the three points here on the road. San Jose has never won here but this looks like the year it can happen as the Earthquakes are second in away form in MLS this season. They average over two goals per match on offense and have allowed a goal per match on defense. San Jose has won two of the last three meetings, with one draw, and we think they are well positioned to collect full points here before the break.

ASA WNBA free play – Phoenix Mercury -3 vs LA Sparks, 10PM ET - These two teams have gotten off to poor starts with the Sparks 1-3 SU, the Mercury currently stand 2-3 SU. They are comparable offensively with the Mercury the 5th best offensive Net rating team in the league at 109.7 and the Sparks 8th at 107.7. The big difference between the two teams is defensively with the Sparks the worst team in the league in most key statistical categories on that end of the court. L.A. is 15th in defensive Net rating at 121.3, give up 98.3PPG on 51% shooting by opponents. In comparison the Mercury rank 9th in DNR at 105.4 while allowing the 4th fewest points per game at 86 per. Phoenix has covered 6 of the last eight meetings with the Sparks and will get cover #7 tonight. Lay the points with the Mercury.

FREE PLAY on Sparks/Mercury under 178½