Today’s Best Free Sports Betting Picks and Predictions From Our Experts

[1%] Free Play on Blue Jays -193

1* Free Play on Blue Jays -190

1* Bet on SMU/Florida State: over 54½

1 Dimer on Blue Jays -190

This is a FREE PLAY on the JAYS on the RUNLINE option.

Dylan Cease is 10-5 with a 2.25 ERA overall for the Jays, but he's 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA over his last eight starts.

Toronto is one game back of the final Wild Card spot now, so it'll be looking to take advantage of this matchup in this series.

Jacob Lopez is 6-4 with a 4.71 ERA for the Athletics; he owns a 10.50 ERA in three career starts vs. Toronto.

I like Cease and the JAYS to not only win, but to do so in blowout fashion to open up this series; consider TOROTO on the RUNLINE option.

Good luck, NP

1* Free Pick on SMU/Florida State: over 53½

This is a season opener for both teams, so there's no current form to lean on.

The case here is last year's tape, the injury reports, and the price.

Last season Florida State averaged 35.78 points a game across the nine games I have logged.

SMU averaged 32.5 over ten.

That's 68-plus combined, nearly 15 points north of this number.

Now look at who's covering the pass.

Florida State is without defensive backs Karson Hobbs, Chauncey Kennon, and Jordan Crutchfield, with safety K.J.

Kirkland doubtful.

SMU counters by losing starting safety and leading tackler Ahmaad Moses plus safety Jaden Milliner-Jones.

Both back ends are patchwork in week 1, before either staff has game reps to sort out the depth.

The offenses can take advantage.

SP+ projects SMU's offense 22nd nationally at a 32.5 rating.

Those early ratings lean on last year's production, but SMU showed it late in 2025: 45 at Boston College in November, 38 on Louisville a few weeks later.

The under case is real.

Both defenses project top 30 in SP+, and there's rain in the Tallahassee forecast.

Here's why that doesn't flip me: those defensive projections assume healthy rosters, and neither secondary is close to whole.

Wet ball or not, backup safeties bust coverages, and one or two long touchdowns change the math on a 53.5 total fast.

Depleted secondaries, capable offenses, and a number that sits well below what these teams produced last fall.

That's enough.

I like the Over

Dave's Monday Free Play:

1* on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-120)

The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays have gone 7-2 in their last 9 games overall with 5 wins by 2 runs or more. They have scored at least 4 runs in all 7 wins. They are within one game of the Guardians for the final wild card spot in the American League.  The A's have so many injuries offensively that they just don't have the horses down the stretch.  They won't touch Dylan Cease, who is 10-5 with a 2.25 ERA in 26 starts this year, and 8-1 with a 1.54 ERA in 12 road starts.  The Blue Jays should rough up Jacob Lopez, who is 6-4 with a 4.71 ERA in 20 starts this year, and 0-3 with a 5.11 ERA in 10road starts.  Lopez has yielded 9 ER and 3 HR in 6 2/3 innings in his last 2 starts against the Blue Jays.  Take Toronto on the Run Line.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on St. Louis Cardinals +116

The St. Louis Cardinals have scored at least 7 runs in five of their last six games overall.  They will get to Logan Webb, who is having one of the worst seasons of his career at 8-8 with a 4.27 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Webb gave up 9 earned runs in 2 innings to the Pirates in his last start.  He has given up 7 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts against the Cardinals.  Michael McGreevy has a 3.97 ERA in 27 starts this season and a 3.89 ERA in 14 road starts.  He will hold this depleted Giants lineup in check tonight.  Give me the Cardinals.

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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #344 Syracuse Orange over California Golden Bears (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 12 ACC Network) Both teams have a game under their belt and we will follow the line movement in this game. Cal has a new coach and system and they fell apart last week in Berkely, being outscored 21-0 by UCLA to lose by 21 points. I do not have much confidence in this team and feel Ron Rivera is in over his head as general manager. Syracuse got some confidence last week destroying New Hampshire and they did win at Cal in 2024 in route to a 10 win season. I see them bouncing back this year and making a bowl game. They should be able to win this game by double digits. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend card featuring top plays football, soccer, and tennis. Sign-up now with a long term package and let 55 years of handicapping experience work for you.

R&R Totals FREE CFB Over-Under Monday 9-7-26

UNDER 53 1/2 SMU/Florida State

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1* Free Pick on Blue Jays -200

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Monday’s FREE WINNER: Edmonton Elks.

Game 693.

3:00 PM PST/6:00 PM EST.

Just 24 hours ago, the Edmonton Elks were favored -1.5 points. The line shifted due to some injury announcements and updates. They lost their return specialist, Leake and one of their receivers, Luther. Throw into the mix the Calgary Stampeders are expected to see the return of their quarterback, Adams Jr. But what the general public does not understand is the Elks are loaded with talent. It’s by no accident. They are atop the West division at 8-3 overall. Coincidentally enough, they also get us paid, covering eight of their 11 contests this season. While this Stampeders are just 5-6 overall and have covered just five of their 11 outings this season, they are absolutely horrible at McMahon Stadium going 2-4 at home. Very simply, even without some key players here, the visiting team is far superior. Edmonton and their solid ground attack will absolutely steamroll the league-worst Calgary run defense. With statistically the poorest defense in the West division yielding 31.8 PPG, the Stampeders are in real trouble here. We mentioned a moment ago they expect to have their quarterback returning, and I do believe he’ll be a little rusty. Even if he comes out and he is 100%, he’s still going up against the best overall defense in the CFL, possessing a smart and savvy coaching staff that will have their “D” primed and prepared here. Being a contrarian bettor, I always look to see where the general public is putting their money on. This does play part in how I select my releases. As we know, the general public is wrong most of the time. I’m going against them again here tonight, and taking the Edmonton Elks. Thank you.

Lions -7

Locking this in early. Analysis to follow.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

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Forty-four and a half is a quiet number until you remember who is walking into NRG on Sunday. Buffalo at Houston, 1:00 Eastern, Week 1, a pick’em dressed up like a heavyweight and a total that already admits this should look like 24-17, not 31-28. The public hears Josh Allen and starts adding touchdowns. The board heard Houston’s front and hung 44.5 like it meant it.

Last year the Bills went 12-5 and scored 481 points, 28.3 a night, tied for fourth in the league. That tape is real. So is a road opener in a building that has treated Allen like a tourist. Including the postseason he is 1-4 against this franchise with a 55.4 percent completion rate. That is not a curse you put on a poster. That is a completion percentage that lives in the 200s and a lot of third-and-long. Houston went 12-5 as well. The Texans were 7-11-1 to the total. Buffalo was 10-8-1. One of those clubs already knew how to keep a Sunday from turning into a track meet.

Week 1 is not January. First real snaps, first real crowd, first real script that has not been stress-tested since the spring. Openers lean under for a reason. Coaches call it safe. Quarterbacks check it down. Clock becomes the whole ticket. A 23-17 Texans win cashes 44.5 in its sleep. A 24-20 Bills win cashes. A 27-13 still has a pulse. The scores that beat it are the ones where both quarterbacks start slinging it in the fourth quarter of an opener because somebody panicked. That is not how this spot usually ages, and it is not how NRG usually ages when Buffalo is in town.

You do not need a defensive struggle that looks like 9-6. You need this to stay out of a late auction. Allen can still be the best player on the field and the under still gets paid. Stroud can still look like a franchise and the under still gets paid. The number is not asking you to fade talent. It is asking you to fade rust plus a Houston defense that does not need permission to hit.

Pertinent ledger from last season, the kind that lives on a football reference page if you want to stare at it: Bills 481 points in 17 games, 28.3 a night, 12-5, 19 giveaways. Texans 12-5, 12 giveaways, second-fewest in the league. Combined that is two grown clubs, not a cupcake and a bully. Combined they were not a 50-point problem every Sunday. Houston’s total record already told you that. Buffalo’s scoring average is the trap. People take 28.3, add a home dome, and forget that 28.3 was earned across a year, not on the first Sunday in somebody else’s building.

The public will smash Allen props and the over because the logo travels and the quarterback sells tickets. Let them. A 220-yard Allen night and a 210-yard Stroud night with a couple of field goals is an honest opener. James Cook can still eat and the total can still sit down. The ticket is not “nobody scores.” The ticket is “nobody turns this into a shootout before the rust comes off.”

Sit on 44.5. If the number drips to 43.5 it gets cleaner. If they hang 46.5, the edge is thinner and you can live without it. Sunday’s ticket is the under, not the chalk, not the revenge poster, not the first-game narrative that always sounds smarter on Saturday night.

Bet under the total in Week 1 games posted 45.5 or lower.

The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 12-7 (63.2%) with an average over/under of 43.8. (+4.1 units, ROI=19.7%)

Bet under the total in Bills road games against a 12-win defense.

That spot since 2023: 7-3 (70.0%) with an average over/under of 46.1. (+3.5 units, ROI=31.8%)

Bet under 45 in Week 1 games that open as a pick’em or inside a field goal.

That spot since 2024: 9-5 (64.3%) with an average over/under of 44.2. (+3.4 units, ROI=22.1%)

Bet under the total when Josh Allen plays in Houston.

That spot since 2022: 4-1 (80.0%) with an average over/under of 46.8. (+2.7 units, ROI=49.1%)

Confirm the number is still 44.5 closer to kick. Confirm both clubs are still listing the names you expect. Then take the under and let everybody else argue about a one-point spread in Week 1. Enjoy the early window. Bet the total. Let the logos yell at each other while the clock does the work.

Player Prop bets :Josh Allen’s passing line is sitting around 221.5. Take the under. He can still win the game and live in the 190s if Houston’s front gets him off schedule.

C.J. Stroud is around 218.5 passing yards. Same lean. Under. A home opener against Buffalo does not require 250. It requires 205 and a couple of scores.

Allen under 1.5 passing touchdowns is the other quarterback ticket. One through the air and a field-goal night is an honest road opener in this building.

James Cook around 73.5 rushing yards is the over that still fits the under. If this stays on the ground, he eats clock and the total still cashes.

My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We saw considerable regression from the Buccaneers down the stretch last season as they ultimately missed the playoffs after having it set up on a platter for them in the down-trodden NFC South. So obviously Tampa Bay has a chip on its shoulder entering the 2026 campaign but I'm not sure that will make a lick of difference. I think we're going to see the Bucs get involved in their share of shootouts again this year and in the season opener, that suits Cincinnati just fine. The Bengals finally have QB Joe Burrow healthy to start a season and he has all the weapons around him he needs to take his team on a 'Super Bowl of bust' type of run this year. The big news is that Cincinnati finally made some moves to bolster its much-maligned defense. I think the Bengals defense is well-positioned to come up with the splash plays needed to ultimately pull away in this particular contest. Bettors are hesitant to back the Bengals in Week 1 given their early season futility in recent years. I think this is a team with a fresh outlook, however, and one that brings a lot of optimism into its home opener. Take Cincinnati (8*).

1* on Dodgers -158

Cardinals vs Giants MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy (6-9, 3.97 ERA) enters this matchup quietly putting together a solid campaign. McGreevy has proved particularly effective when pitching on the road, where the Cardinals have backed him to a profitable 6-4 record (+44% ROI) on the moneyline when catching plus-money.

The Giants counter with ace Logan Webb (8-8, 4.21 ERA), but Webb has been noticeably uncharacteristic against St. Louis throughout his career, posting a 3-3 record with a bloated 5.19 ERA across 8 career starts against the Redbirds.

The Bet: Cardinals (3%). 

Marc David Sports' Free Pick

17-11 (61%) Free Pick Run!

7-2 (78%) Free Pick Run! 

We really like the road underdog in this matchup. The line appears to be highly influenced by the Dodgers' dominant record at home, but we think this is an overreaction as they are only 20-47 against the -1.5 line at home. The Reds (69-74) come into Dodger Stadium featuring elite rookie RHP Chase Burns (15-3, 2.79 ERA), who has been electric all season, maintaining a stellar 2.79 ERA with 171 strikeouts across 26 starts.

The Dodgers (86-57) will reportedly turn to RHP Emmet Sheehan (1-1, 3.97 ERA), who is being recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City to handle the bulk pitching duties. While the Dodgers possess a dangerous lineup, Sheehan has logged limited innings in the big leagues this year, and relying on a bullpen-heavy approach against a refreshed Cincinnati offense creates volatility.

This is a FREE PLAY on the REDS +1.5!

FREE PLAY on Nationals +180

3* on A's