Today’s Best Free Sports Betting Picks and Predictions From Our Experts

[1%] Free Play on Stars -125

Recommended Bet: Leyton Orient +240

*Free Play on West Virginia* The Iowa State Cyclones have been better than expected, but I think the market has gone a little too crazy backing Iowa State here. They have gone from an underdog all the way up to 3.5 point favorites. They played Iowa closer than expected. The CyHawk game is always tight and low scoring.

Iowa State was dominated at home by Utah last week. The stats in that one were even more lopsided than the final score.

Hawkins is a dynamic quarterback who can beat you two ways. West Virginia is a run first team, but they are also first in passing play explosiveness. I think this is a good chance for West Virginia to bounce back from their disappointing loss at home last weekend.

I'll grab the points and the underdog.

Take West Virginia.

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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Tennessee Titans +11.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Tennessee Titans after a 0-3 start.  After opening with a 13-point loss to the Jets, the Titans had their chances to win in the final seconds in each of their last two games.  They lost by 4 as 7-point dogs to the Eagles and by 5 as 2.5-point dogs to the Giants.

While the Titans are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL, the Ravens are dealing with a ton of injuries that do not warrant them being this big of a favorite.  They lost their top two centers in Pocic and Gwynn to injury last week and are down to a rookie 3rd-stringer.  LB Trey Hendrickson is out, while WR Zay Flowers and OT Ronnie Stanley are questionable.

The Ravens are vulnerable up the middle offensively now.  That makes this a particularly bad matchup for them going up against the biggest strength of the Titans, which is the interior of their defensive line led by Jeffery Simmons.  Robert Saleh will take advantage of this weakness for the Ravens and send plenty of pressure up the middle.

This is also a letdown spot for the Ravens.  They have the long flight back from Brazil after escaping with a last-second win over the Cowboys last week.  We see them come up flat as big favorites at home multiple times every season.  They already did it once losing outright to the Saints as 8.5-point favorites in Week 2.  They may find a way to win this game, but I fully expect it to be closer than this line suggests.

The Titans have a very good offensive line and a solid running game when their backs in Pollard and Spears are healthy.  It's supposed to rain throughout the game, so running the football and stopping the run will be very important.  I think Tennessee matches up well in both departments with the Ravens.  The rain will suppress scoring, which will help keep the Titans in this game.

The Titans average 4.2 yards per rush and allow 3.6 yards per rush this season.  Baltimore rushes for 5.2 yards per carry while allowing 4.1 per carry.  But the Ravens have played a very easy schedule of opposing defenses in the Colts, Cowboys and Saints.  This Tennessee defense will bet the best unit Baltimore has faced this season.

NFL teams that are 0-3 entering Week 4 up against a team with at least one win are 47-25-1 ATS since 2005.  I would not play all these teams blindly, but the Titans are my favorite of the bunch in this situation.  It makes sense too because these 0-3 teams play with more desperation than their opponents.  They are also undervalued after three straight losses, and the Titans fit that bill.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

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3* on Bucs

Ricky's 1* play on BYU.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- BYU are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

- BYU are 3-1 ATS in the last 4 head to head meetings.

- BYU are are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 10/2:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. Take the Tennessee Titans plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens. Tennessee (0-3) remains winless this season after their 12-7 loss on the road in New York against the Giants as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Titans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three games in a row. And while first-year head coach Robert Saleh has a 23-35 ATS mark in his head coaching career mostly with the New York Jets, those Jets teams covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games played in October which suggests his ability to make adjustments after the first month of the season. Baltimore (2-1) comes off a 34-31 last second victory against Dallas on Sunday in that game played in Brazil as a 3-point favorite. The Ravens return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored. Take Tennessee plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports remains on a 30 of 45 (67%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays despite a rough 0-3 Thursday mark where Frank got it wrong with the Phillies in MLB and the Pittsburgh-Cleveland Under and then lost a coin flip result backing the Steelers! Frank is still on an 11 of 17 (65%) Game of the Month/Year run in all-Sports and, after some afternoon due diligence, he BOUNCES BACK by UNLEASHING his 25* WNBA 1st Round Playoff Game of the Year for the Dallas-Golden State ATS winner on ESPN2 at 9:00 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Dolphins +10.5 

1* NFL - Cowboys/Texans FREE PICK on Texans -3

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Mick Parkin +100

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1* Free Pick on Padres +180

1* Free Pick on Seahawks -7

The Chargers are 0-3 and averaging just 14.7 points a game.

Now they fly to Seattle to face the defending champion Seahawks, who are angry after losing a close one in Washington.

Start with the quarterbacks.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert is completing 59.1 percent of his passes with a 3:4 TD:INT ratio through three games.

His supporting cast is thin.

Tight ends Charlie Kolar and David Njoku are both out, and right tackle Trey Pipkins III is on IR.

That matters against a Seattle defense that has already given up the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.

Los Angeles has not been close to competitive.

They lost 26-14 to the Cardinals, 26-14 to the Raiders, then fell in Buffalo despite forcing 5 turnovers.

When your defense hands you 5 takeaways and you still lose, the offense is broken.

Seattle is a different story.

The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 a game and allowing 16.7.

Their only loss came on a pick-six in the final minutes at Washington.

Before that they went into Arizona and won 31-7.

Sam Darnold is back under center and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on the field in this one.

He takes a 27-405-6 line on 36 targets into Week 4 with three straight games over 120 receiving yards.

The Chargers have no answer for him.

Good team at home off a loss against a bad team that cannot score.

Seven points is not enough.

I like the Seahawks

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Jaguars/Bengals OVER 51.5

The Key: The Jaguars have been protecting double-digit 2H leads each of the first 3 games of the season so they haven't been pressing the issue offensively.  They are much more potent on offense than they have shown, and they will need to show it this week to match this high-octane Cincinnati offense score for score.  The Bengals were also protecting double-digit leads in their first 2 games against the Bucs and Texans.  They went score for score with the Steelers last week in a 30-27 loss.  I think we see a similar result here with the Jaguars as these are 2 of the best offenses in the NFL, and 2 defenses that are very vulnerable in the secondary.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 matchups between the Bengals and Jaguars and Burrow didn't even play in the last 2 matchups.  They still went for 65 and 58 combined points.  Take the OVER.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Texas State -8½ -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Seattle Seahawks -7

The Seattle Seahawks will be motivated when they return home to bounce back from one of the most shocking losses of the season.  They lost 33-31 to Marcus Mariota and the Commanders last week in sloppy conditions.  When you look at the box score, the Seahawks had no business losing that game.  They outgained the Commanders by 179 yards but were -3 in turnovers, including a Pick 6 from Sam Darnold.  He'll be much sharper in his 2nd back back from injury.  The Seahawks are outgaining their opponents by 149 yards per game and 2.3 yards per play this season.  They haven't missed a beat since winning the Super Bowl.  Their defense is the best in the NFL giving up only 228.7 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  The 0-3 Chargers are getting outgained by 41 yards per game.  They even lost to the Bills by 8 last week despite being +4 in turnovers.  They are broken and banged up, and now they have a ton of travel in between coming back from Buffalo this week and now flying up to Seattle for consecutive road games.  They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and Justin Herbert just doesn't have time.  Ladd McConkey is banged up and questionable, and they don't have many weapons outside him.  They are down their top two TE's.  Three starters in the secondary in James, Molden and Jackson are all questionable, and they are without NT Tomlinson.  The Seahawks are going to own them at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football and it will lead to a win by more than a touchdown in this one.  Give me the Seahawks.

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1* Free Sharp Play on England -125

Saturday Headliners includes the SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR Gators vs Tigers and a Big Red Zone Side. There is also MLB Playoff Game 1 power systems and Early Season NHL. Comp play below

The Saturday comp play in CFB Action is on Iowa St at 12 noon eastern. The Cyclones have won the last 2 in the series by double digits and are better than their 2-2 record as the losses came to undefeated Utah and Iowa. West Virginia may be 3-1 but has allowed 67 points the last 2 weeks and were blown out at home by OK. ST The Mountaineers are in a game 5 play against system that is based on teams off their first loss as a dog off a loss of 14 or more if they scored 35 or less and they are taking on a team off a home dog loss. These road teams have not covered since 2007. Look for Iowa St to to take home the spoils. GL Rob V-

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Saturday Free Play. You could call this a letdown spot for Iowa which is coming off a last second win against Michigan but based on this opponent, there is zero chance for that letdown. The Hawkeyes are doing it again being on pace for another high finish in the Big Ten Conference and surpassing their win total as this team has won eight or more games in nine of the last ten years, the only exception being the COVID year when they played only eight games total. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is the reason as being the longest tenured coach in FBS, he continues to be consistent with his teams and that comes down to defense. They are tied for No. 7 in Defensive EPA/Play and while this is a test, we’ve seen them succeed in this spot before. Ohio St. is coming off a blowout win over Illinois but allowed 462 yards in the process and their numbers are skewed by allowing three points against Kent. St. and Ball St., the two worst teams in the MAC. The offense is one of the best but struggled in its only test at Texas and this environment in its second true road game is just as big of a test. Live dog. Play (186) Iowa Hawkeyes

Fargo is now 14-5-2 in the NFL to start the season! College Football is 20-15 YTD following another winning week. That adds up to 33-20-2 in Football YTD! Football is back in action on Saturday with SEVEN Winners.

Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take the Over in Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska Cornhuskers (4 p.m., Saturday, October 3, FS1). We faded Maryland with last week’s free play, and the Terrapins delivered a rough performance in a 54-3 home loss to UCLA. That result has turned up the heat on their head coach, and we expect a better offensive effort this Saturday. The bigger concern remains Maryland’s defense, which surrendered 34 points to Virginia Tech before allowing 54 to UCLA. Nebraska has been piling up points, scoring 49, 56, 34, and 31 in its first four games of 2026. With the Cornhuskers rolling offensively and Maryland looking to respond, we like this matchup to go over the total. Back the Over. Don’t miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Card, featuring top plays in football, hockey, UFC, and soccer. Sign up now and put 54 years of handicapping experience to work for you!

Navy vs Air Force 
Noon EST 
5-Unit bet UNDER the posted total of 45.5 points

This is one of my favorite betting algorithms and requires a bet on the UNDER in game involving the armed forces academies (Navy, Army, Air Force) that is played at home or on a neutral site and with the opponent of that game averaging 21 or more points. That combination of parameters has compiled a 29-9 UNDER record good for 76% winning bets since 2006.

67% ATS this College Football season and ranks #7 in profits and 3rd in ROI. Do not miss out on his 10-UNIT MAX bet of the Month going Saturday.

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Saturday’s Free Winner: Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Game 142.

1:00 PM PST/4:00 PM EST.

My friends, if the Cornhuskers didn’t have the Hoosiers and Ducks in back-to-back games on deck, this would’ve been a premium release for me. This is a much-improved Nebraska squad looking to put a hurting on a conference opponent here. Last year’s October 11 matchup on the road saw them eke out a 34-31 victory as nearly a touchdown favorite. So far, the Cornhuskers own a perfect 4-0 record which does include a 1-0 mark in Big 10 play. I mentioned a moment ago they have some tough opponents on deck. But this is their last chance to fine tune their squad on both sides of the line of scrimmage before their schedule gets tougher. By the way, they’re also a perfect 3-0 at home and have covered three of their four outings this season. In all sincerity, they could’ve covered the one game they did not as they were a 27.5-point favorite at home against North Dakota and won by 27-points. Maryland is in for a long and ugly campaign. They did come out victorious in their first two outings of the season. But those games were against Hampton and Connecticut. Their last two contests were both losses and no covers, both played at home against Virginia Tech and UCLA. As a matter of fact, this team has now lost eight of their last 10 going back to last season SU, and seven of those 10 ATS. Now, maybe they could be caught in a look-ahead role as seven days from this game, on the road they have to face Ohio State. Having said all that, the Terrapins offense can’t get out of their own way, committing five turnovers and ranking 91st on the ground. Yes, their passing game has been impressive ranking 28th in college football. But they did stall badly last week putting up just three-points at home against the Bruins. This week they are facing the 10th ranked scoring defense in college football. Not only are the Cornhuskers tough against the rush, they are also amazing against the pass. They rank in the top-25 in just about every major defensive category. Let’s flip it and talk about the Nebraska offense, which has only committed one turnover, is averaging over 42.5 PPG, ranks in the top-20 in rushing, and is solid in the air. How in the world can the UM defense slow them down? It isn’t going to happen, my friends. Of course, they allowed just 14 combined points against teams like Hampton and Connecticut. But when they stepped up in class, their defense got lit up for a combined 89 points the last two games against Virginia Tech and UCLA. As I mentioned at the start of this breakdown, if Nebraska wasn’t going up against Indiana and Oregon in the next two weeks, this would’ve been a premium release for me. Take the Cornhuskers. Thank you.

I think UNLV will be able to beat California this Saturday. They have the better offense as well as matching up better on the ground. Ja’Den Thomas is gaining 5.9 ypc and QB Jackson Arnold can run as well. He had his best game throwing the ball last week throwing for 3 touchdowns.

California will be coming in from a bad game against Clemson. They were only able to gain 231 yards and did not score a touchdown on offense. May also be without their best running back due to injuries.

I think with UNLV at home and beating Akron last week by 38-10. They will be able to run the ball and and find a way to take the game.

Colts -3

Indy has the cleaner path to controlling this game. Washington is allowing more than 280 passing yards per game, and opposing QB's have consistently found room against a defense that has surrendered 11 TD's through three weeks. The Commanders are also allowing TD's on 75% of opposing red-zone trips. That gives Daniel Jones a favorable matchup, but Jonathan Taylor is where I expect Indy to establish control. Washington is coming off an emotional win behind Marcus Mariota, while the Colts just handled a physical Houston defense. At only a FG, I'll lay it. Back Indy. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the COLTS -3. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

4/5 top plays 350-278 56% +3582 L3 years!** The current run has been strong. A BIG Card is going up for this weekend, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Highmark Stadium gets the early window Sunday, and the number has already done the thing sharps hate. Patriots at Bills opened around Buffalo -3 and is now Bills -6.5, total 48.5, moneyline near -325. The play is Patriots +6.5.

Buffalo is 3-0 and the right side to win the game. They have scored 101 points and allowed 78, 33.7 and 26.0 per game, first and 21st. Yards are 401.7 a game, fourth. The point differential is +23, the margin of victory is 7.7, and the SRS is 0.9 on a soft schedule. Josh Allen is 56 of 86 for 786 yards, 5 passing touchdowns and 2 interceptions, a 65.1 percent completion rate, plus 119 rushing yards and 6 rushing scores on 23 non-kneel carries. That is 11 touchdowns in three weeks from one human. James Cook has 346 yards at 6.0 a carry. Dalton Kincaid has 14 catches for 263 yards. Offensive EPA per play is 0.228, second in the league, and the run game is first in EPA per rush. If you are betting the moneyline, stop reading and take Buffalo.

The spread is a different market. A model that has the Bills winning about 72 percent of the time projects this 27-20 and calls -6.5 a coin flip, 50 percent either way. You do not lay a key number for a coin flip. The line moved from -3 to -6.5 because New England looks broken on offense, and the market overshot the hook.

The Patriots are 1-2. They have scored 36 points and allowed 51, 12.0 and 17.0 per game, 31st and sixth. Yards gained are 307.0, 21st. Yards allowed are 278.3, fifth, including 170.0 passing yards allowed, second. Point differential is -15. Offensive EPA per play is -0.130, 28th. Drake Maye’s EPA per play is around -0.070, 28th among quarterbacks. Points per drive are 0.97, worst in the league. Their only win was a 20-point effort against Pittsburgh. The other two weeks they looked like a team that forgot the end zone existed. That part is not a mirage.

The part the number is ignoring is the other side of the ball. New England’s defense is 12th in EPA per play and fourth in EPA per dropback. Buffalo’s defense is 25th in yards allowed at 361.3, 27th in passing yards allowed at 254.3, and 25th in EPA per play. They allow 2.52 points per drive, 25th. After giving up 31 in each of the first two weeks, they had one cleaner game against the Chargers and the market treated it like a rebirth. It was one week. This defense still leaks, and a leaky defense against a bad offense is how dogs cover without ever leading.

Third downs tell the same story. Buffalo converts 54.5 percent, New England 32.5 percent. Buffalo has 13 touchdowns, New England has 3. Buffalo has 8 rushing scores. If Cook and Allen live in the red zone, the Patriots are not winning this. They do not have to. A 24-17 or 27-20 is a winner on +6.5 and a loser on the moneyline. Last 10 meetings between these two have gone over 7 times, which fits a Bills team that scores and a Bills defense that gives some of it back. Weather is a shrug. Cloudy, about 61 degrees, wind around 9. Not a lake-effect alibi.

Bet the road dog when an AFC East favorite opens at -3 and closes at -6.5 or higher. The dog’s record in that spot since the 2023 season: 9-5 (64.3 percent) against an average spread of 6.5. (+2.9 unit$, ROI=19.3%)

Bet the points when the home favorite allows 25 or more points per game and the total is 48.5 or lower. The dog’s record since the 2024 season: 14-9 (60.9 percent) against an average spread of 6.0. (+3.1 unit$, ROI=12.7%)

Bet the under when New England is on the road and scoring under 15 points per game. The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 6-3 (66.7 percent) with an average over/under of 43.5. (+2.1 unit$, ROI=21.0%)

That last one is a lean, not the card. The total at 48.5 is a pass. Buffalo can hang 30 by itself, and the series has been a fireworks show more often than a rock fight. The side is the bet.

The hold is obvious. If Allen runs in two more scores and Cook keeps ripping off 6.0 a carry, -6.5 is the correct side and this ticket is a donation to the Orchard Park gift shop. New England has one passing touchdown all year. One. A defense can only keep you close for so long when the offense is producing less than a point per drive. That is why this is one unit, juice no worse than -105. If the number drips back to +7, buy it. If it snaps to +5.5, you are late. Shop +6.5. Let the hook do the work.

Pick was recorded at +6.5 ---with +7 being even better.

My selection is on Arizona over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While the Giants enter this game with the better overall record, I don't think there's any question it's the Cardinals that appear to have more upside through three weeks of the season. I really liked the fight Arizona showed in last week's loss but ATS cover on the road against the 49ers. Bettors wanted no part of the Cards after their blowout loss at home against Seattle in Week 2. Keep in mind, the Seahawks had extra time to prepare for that matchup after opening the season on a Wednesday. That's not to mention the fact that the Cards were in a clear letdown after pulling off a road upset of the Chargers in Week 1. The situation on offense is bad enough for the Giants that they elected to sign Vikings cast-off QB J.J. McCarthy. Last week's win over Tennessee had everything to do with the ineptness of the Titans and very little to do with New York's own crisp play. That was an ugly game all around that to put bluntly, someone had to win. While the Giants might have had a chance to compete this year with a healthy Jaxson Dart at quarterback, I fully expect them to quickly fall well back of the pack with Jameis Winston running what already looks like a broken offense (the fact that they're bent on featuring RB Cam Skattebo as the focal point is the biggest red flag). Take Arizona (8*).

#131 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL -14.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This Clemson team is not good and we jumped the gun last week fading them at Cal in a tough travel spot. Problem is, while Clemson’s offense isn’t good, Cal’s offense stinks this year. This is a much better spot to fade the Tigers who are facing possibly the most talented team in the country. Miami is every bit as talented as LSU who beat this Clemson team 51-10 and outgained them by almost +4.0 YPP. A complete beatdown. The Tigers are 3-1 but they have a negative YPG and YPP margin. They have a win over Georgia Southern in a game that was 16-7 with just over 6:00 remaining in the game, then they came from 2 TD’s down at home to beat UNC (long rain delay changed the momentum in that one) and then last week they beat a Cal team that ranks 125th in YPP offense (4.2 YPP). Now they face one of the best few teams in the country that should be highly motivated to roll big in this one as the Canes face very few big time opponents this season and they have next weekend off so nothing to look ahead to. Clemson’s offense is not good ranking 132nd in success rate, 128th in total offense, and 124th in YPP. They now face a defense that ranks #2 in total defense, #5 in YPP defense, and #1 in rush D allowing only 39 YPG on the ground. That’ll be a huge issue for Clemson as they rely heavily on the run and their true freshman QB Reynolds is still learning the ropes. Miami has allowed just 36 total points in 4 games this year and we expect very little out of Clemson’s offense here. On the other side of the ball, the Canes offense is ranked #1 in the country in total offense and #1 in YPP at 8.5. They are very balanced rushing for almost 230 YPG (top 20) and passing for 361 YPG (top 5). Throw out their 77-7 win over FCS FAMU and Miami is still averaging 43 PPG. They should do damage vs a Clemson D that ranks 84th in success rate, 91st in total defense, 102nd in rush defense, and 78th vs the pass. If Miami comes to play, which we guess they will, this is a mismatch. The Canes will want to prove they belong near the top despite their ACC affiliation. Trying to match LSU’s 51-10 win would be a good step in that direction. Miami rolls.

David's NCAAF Free Pick

We really like road favorite in this matchup. Syracuse (1-2) has a talented group of receivers and quarterback Steve Angeli, who has thrown for 263 and 3 TD in a game this year. They're facing a UConn secondary that is young and inexperienced and just gave up 300+ passing yards to Miami (OH). The Orange defense is just as good in the other direction, allowing only 134.7 passing yards per game (5th nationally) and 258.7 total yards per game (16th).

UConn (2-2) has some weapons, but quarterback Kalieb Osborne doesn't have a go-to receiver to keep drives alive. Syracuse has the better receivers, the better defense, and a clear matchup edge in the secondary. They should control this game and win by more than the number.

This is a FREE PLAY on SYRACUSE ATS.

Free Play – Take #165 Michigan State +10 over Wisconsin (12:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, October 3)

Last week I had Michigan State, and they were overwhelmed by Nebraska at home. Wisconsin was trailing by 10 points at Penn State in the fourth quarter, which looked like a sure defeat, but they tallied two TDs and engineered the upset. So, the Badgers roll at home over the Spartans? In the immortal words of Lee Corso, “No so fast, my friend!” No question Wisconsin is playing much better than the last few years, but back? Spartans coach Pat Fitzgerald is a solid 38-23 ATS as a road underdog. Luke Fikell might be getting things together, yet he’s still a mediocre 16-21 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up wins. Fitzgerald has FIVE outright upsets of Wisky, and the underdog is on a 5-1 ATS surge. Badgers win, but as Corso said, “closer than the experts think.”

>CFB Early Saturday Totals Play of the Week! 10-4 run

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>NFL Sunday Best Bet in a 19-2 Spot!

Free Pick on Buffalo +13 -105

PSP Data Driven 1* USC.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Washington are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. Washington are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Temple +6.5 at USF (Raymond James Stadium)

USF opens American Conference play at 4-0 but is only 2-2 ATS. Temple is 1-3 straight up and 3-1 ATS. The Owls losses to Penn State, Toledo (OT) and Army could all have gone the other way, and they've covered everything except last week. Keeler's teams play close as dogs, and Temple leads the all-time series 6-4.

USF

 Defense is the story: 14.0 points allowed per game (21st nationally) and 322 yards. D.J. Crowther is the engine on offense with 325 rush yards and 5 TDs. Michael Van Buren Jr. has 0 INTs, but the offense is feast-or-famine at 350.5 yards per game (105th).

Temple

 The Owls run it at 220.3 yards per game (24th), but USF is tough to run on, allowing 121.8 per game and just one rushing TD all year. Temple's defense is leaky (133rd in third-down rate) and the O-line has some injury concerns. The one thing that worries me is the red zone. Temple has scored on every trip inside the 20, and USF has allowed a score on every opponent trip. It's a small sample, but it's a real tell.

The total

 USF just won 14-6 and Temple lost 21-17. USF's last two competitive games (Army and BGSU) totaled 52 and 20 points, and the number has fallen from the mid-50s to 48 for a reason.

The plays

Temple +6.5 (NoVig). You might be able to wait for a 7, but I don't think we get there.

Under 49.5 (Rivers)

1H Under 24.5. It's moved to 23.5, but I don't mind paying the extra juice for the full point.

Let's cash some tickets!