Today’s Best Free Sports Betting Picks and Predictions From Our Experts

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Louisville ML -115

The Louisville Cardinals will be playing with double revenge here.  Jeff Brohm is 29-13 at Louisville, but two of those losses came to the SMU Mustangs over the last two seasons.  After falling 34-27 at home to SMU in 2024, the Cardinals were blown out 38-6 at SMU last year.  It's safe to say they have had this game circled all offseason.

Louisville's only loss by more than 7 points over the last two seasons came 38-6 to SMU last year.  But that loss comes with a big asterisk.  The Cardinals were coming off two losses to Cal and Clemson by a combined 4 points that eliminated them from ACC title contention.  They were flat as a pancake against SMU with nothing to play for.  QB Miller Moss and both stud RB's were out for that game for Louisville, too.

Now the Cardinals are loaded in 2026 and a legit ACC title contender.  Brohm crushed the transfer portal in the offseason bringing in eight transfers who were starters at other programs, giving the Cardinals 14 returning starters overall.  They have arguably the best 1-2 punch at RB in the country in Isaac Brown (884 yards, 7 TD, 8.8 YPC last year) and Keyjuan Brown (704 yards, 6 TD, 7.3 YPC).  They added QB Lincoln Kienholz who was in a battle with Julian Sayin last season for the starting QB job at Ohio State.  They also added Vandy WR transfer Tre Richardson and FSU WR transfer Lewayne McCoy to give Kienholz the weapons he needs to succeed.

Four starters and four of the top nine tacklers are back from a defense that allowed just 21.2 points per game last season.  And defense is where Brohm gets overlooked because he's an offensive guy, but he notoriously has great defenses as his teams have allowed 21.3 points per game or fewer in three of the last four seasons, and the 24.1 points per game in 2024 was the lone exception.  The Cardinals are loaded at LB this season and bring back their best defensive lineman in DE Cleve Lubin (61 tackles, 8.5 sacks last year).

Louisville opened with an impressive 41-38 loss at the buzzer to Ole Miss, which made the college football playoff semifinals last year and brought back a ton of talent from that team.  Keinholz was shaky in the first half of his first start which was understandable.  But he settled in and shined in the 2H, finishing with 307 passing yards and 2 TD along with 69 rushing yards and a score.  His dual-threat ability will give Brohm a ton of versatility with his offense moving forward.  The Cardinals had to play five days later and blasted Villanova 59-13 on September 11th.  They get an extra day to prepare for SMU now and it is a hidden advantage heading into this game.

No question Rhett Lashlee is one of the better coaches in the country with what he has been able to do at SMU.  But he has also benefited from a pretty soft schedule the last two seasons.  I like this SMU offense led by QB Kevin Jennings, but the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Mustangs only returned three starters on defense this season and I think will take a step back on that side of the ball.

SMU's 27-24 win at Florida State in the opener isn't that impressive.  FSU is one of the most overrated teams in the country again this season, struggling with New Mexico State at home in the opener.  I fully expect the Seminoles to get blasted by Alabama this week.  SMU came back with a 56-10 win over UC Davis and wasn't tested there either.

The fact that Louisville has been tested against a team of Ole Miss' caliber will pay dividends late in this game.  I believe the Cardinals are the better team this season, and with home-field advantage this game shouldn't be lined below -3.  Bet Louisville on the money line Saturday.

1* Free Pick on Raiders +7

The Chargers opened as double-digit home favorites against Arizona last week and lost 26-14.

Now the market is asking them to win by more than a touchdown against a better opponent.

That's a price I'll take.

Both teams have played 1 game this season, so this is about the matchup and the number, not streaks.

And the Week 1 tape favors Vegas.

The Raiders posted 5 sacks against Miami, tied for the NFL lead, with Kwity Paye getting 2 and Maxx Crosby adding 1.5.

Justin Herbert was sacked 3 times by Arizona and threw a pick.

That pass rush against that protection is the core of this play.

Herbert's weapons are thinning out too.

Ladd McConkey is questionable with a rib injury, and KeAndre Lambert-Smith landed on injured reserve.

If McConkey sits or plays limited, this offense runs through Quentin Johnston, who caught 2 of 6 targets last week.

On the other side, Ashton Jeanty went 23 for 102 on the ground and added 6 catches for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He controls tempo and keeps this game short.

The fair knock on Vegas is Kirk Cousins.

Two interceptions and 160 passing yards in Week 1 is real, and he'll give one away here too.

But I don't need Cousins to win the game.

I need Jeanty and that front seven to keep it inside a touchdown, and the Raiders held Miami to 13 points and 259 total yards doing exactly that.

Getting the full 7 covers the most common margin in football.

That's line value.

I like the Raiders

1* NFL - Steelers/Patriots FREE PICK on Patriots -5

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Soccer Take San Jose +0.5 GL over LAFC (7:30 p.m. EST, Saturday September 19) San Jose hadn’t won a match since the World Cup up until recently but lo and behold they have now won two straight and look like a completely different side. They manhandled a good San Diego side on the road in a 3-2 win that was more dominant than the final score might indicate. And last week they gutted out a 1-0 win here at home vs. a Houston side that is one of the top teams in the Western Conference. We were on San Jose in that one and mentioned in our writeup that one of the main problems with the Earthquakes since the World Cup break is that they were lacking confidence and now they seem to have it back in spades and their play has been exceptionally strong. They are now unbeaten in four straight matches, and they are back in a Top 4 spot in the West with a chance to move higher with three points here. We only need a draw however, to cash this ticket, and we think they can do enough to get at least a point. LAFC is coming off a 3-1 road loss at Kansas City, one of MLS’s worst sides. LAFC are behind the Earthquakes in the standings despite all the struggles San Jose has faced since the World Cup break. They have only one win in their last eight MLS matches, and this side is just not playing championship-caliber futbol right now. San Jose always raises their level of play when LAFC comes to town and have won five of the last six meetings here.

UNDER 48

Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the UNDER. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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FOOTBALL IS HERE! 425-360 54% +2875 since Mid-Dec! The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. Tons of football up this week. Purchase a 7-day pass for best value! Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access too! Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Saturday night in Los Angeles has that rematch-tax feel, a title fight priced like a coin flip because the first one lasted 26 seconds, and plus-110 on Alexandre Pantoja is the side I want you holding. Not because Joshua Van is a mirage. Because Van is 17-2 and the champ, and the market flipped a former titleholder into plus money off an arm injury, not off five rounds of solved tape. You are not fading Van to lose his belt in a street fight. You are fading the idea that 26 seconds is a hierarchy. That is a different ticket. Decision cashes. Late stoppage cashes. A wrestling grind into a submission is the gift. The chalk is the dart if you want to pay juice to sleep. The plus money is the work.

Bet Pantoja as a plus-money rematch dog after an injury stoppage under one minute. First meeting at UFC 323: Van by TKO at 0:26 after Pantoja’s arm gave out, not after Van pieced him up for 25 minutes. Pantoja entered that booking as a sizable favorite in the minus-185 to minus-270 range. Now he sits plus-110 to plus-118. That flip is the number. (+1.0 units, ROI=90.9%). Bet former champions getting immediate rematches when the first fight produced almost no film. Pantoja 30-6, belt for more than two years, 12 career submissions. Van 17-2 with one successful defense, a fifth-round stoppage of Tatsuro Taira at UFC 328. The tape on this pairing is still a scramble. (+1.0 units, ROI=81.8%). Bet the dog when the favorite’s title win is a 26-second sample and the veteran’s path is wrestling and pace. If this starts round two, the injury result starts looking like a bad price, not a settled pecking order. (+1.0 units, ROI=90.9%).

Van is the younger pressure fighter and the market is buying the momentum. Fair. He is 17-2, the flyweight champion, and he finished Taira in the fifth after a long, ugly climb. That is real. The other side of the ledger is just as loud if you actually read it. Pantoja is 30-6. He held the belt more than two years. He has 12 submission wins. His whole career has been get it to the mat, squeeze the air out of the room, and make five-round title fights feel like a tax. A full camp and a healthy arm is a different animal than a first-minute scramble that ended before anyone’s corner could stand up. Van by decision or late stoppage is the public script. Pantoja by control and a late hook is the ticket that still has math behind it.

The rest of the plus-money board at UFC 331 is louder and thinner, which is how main-card dogs get you chasing heat instead of price. Mauricio Ruffy is plus-245 to plus-270 against Arman Tsarukyan, 14-2 power against a 23-3 wrestler who wants a lightweight title shot. That is a one-punch live dog, not a process. Marlon Vera is plus-180 to plus-200 against Charles Jourdain, a former title challenger on a four-fight skid, 23-12-1 with 18 career finishes, eight by knockout and 10 by submission, still dangerous late and still leaking decisions. Alonzo Menifield is plus-190 to plus-215 against Iwo Baraniewski, veteran 18-6-1 power versus a 9-0 kid with three straight first-round knockouts in the UFC and an average fight time near a minute. Those are action tickets. You can sprinkle them if you like chaos. They are not the cleanest number on the card.

UFC stats sheets do not care about coronation graphics. Van’s recent form is pressure, volume, and a fifth-round finish. Pantoja’s career sheet is title minutes, takedown sequences, and a submission rate that turns round four into a different sport. The first fight did not test either of those things. It tested an elbow. Over 3.5 rounds is sitting in a range that tells you the market itself does not believe this ends in 26 seconds again. Fight goes the distance is plus money. Pantoja by submission is the long shot that actually matches his 12-sub ledger if he ever gets on top. I am not asking you to live on method props. I am asking you to stop treating an injury TKO like a five-round dissertation.

Public money will hammer Van because he is the champ, because Taira went away in the fifth, and because “once you have the belt the rematch is yours.” That is how plus-110 gets to the window looking like a fade instead of a former champion priced off a broken sample. Do not buy this down into a pick’em and pay extra juice to feel safer. The plus-110 is the reason I am writing it. Sit on your hands. Let the first two minutes look messy. If they are still standing in round two and Pantoja has even one takedown in the bank, the number is already working.

I’ve sat through enough rematch cards to know the chaos is real, 26-second titles create fake certainty, young champs get bet like they’ve already solved the veteran, and a 30-6 former titleholder with 12 submissions does not turn into a plus-money tourist just because an arm gave out before the first commercial. If Van walks through him again, we tip the cap and move on. If this thing lives in the wrestling and the late minutes, the plus money does what we paid it to do. That is the bet. Take Pantoja. Do not overthink the 26-second coronation. The first fight did not answer the question. Alexandre Pantoja plus-110 is the play.

My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Georgia at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Arkansas on Saturday as it hosts Georgia. The Bulldogs are off to a flawless start, winning their first two games in blowout fashion at home. Needless to say, this will be their toughest test to date after hosting FCS squad Tennessee State and Western Kentucky. The Razorbacks are sure to be in a foul mood after they were crushed 43-10 at Utah last week. Arkansas had opened the season with a 31-14 victory over FCS opponent North Alabama in Week 1. I do think the needle is pointing up for the Hogs - it has to be after a miserable two-win campaign a year ago. While I certainly don't anticipate Arkansas pulling off the massive upset here, I do think it can hang tough against a Georgia team that won't hit the road again until October 10th when it travels to Tuscaloosa. Take Arkansas (8*).

Our selection is on the Miami Florida Hurricanes to defeat the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Friday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Miami Florida has become a fan favorite team in College Football this season. Malachi Toney is a big part of the reason.

With his big performance in week 1, Toney didn't have to do anything in the 77-7 week 2 win.

The Hurricanes are as explosive of an offensive team as anyone and this is a great opening ACC matchup for them.

Wake Forest has allowed 52 points over it's first two games -- 36 last week against Purdue.

The Demon Deacons are 0-8 straight up over their L8 games against Miami since 1944.

We're on Miami.

AAA Sports

Panthers vs. Falcons: Under 44 is the Play

Two 0-1 NFC South teams meet in Week 2, but they got there in very different ways — one defense just allowed 59 points, the other team doesn't have a starting quarterback.

The line has flipped. Atlanta opened as the favorite, and it's easy to see why: the Falcons QB situation. Michael Penix has already been ruled out, and I'd be shocked if Tua Tagovailoa plays either. Cooper Rush started Week 1 and looked overmatched — he's also dealing with back spasms. Jack Strand is next man up, and I think Atlanta should go with him. This offense has real weapons; it just needs someone who can get them the ball. Rush proved Week 1 that he can't. For that reason, I'm waiting on the spread until Atlanta names a starter — whoever it is should move this line back toward Carolina.

Carolina's offense actually looked legit last week. Bryce Young had a big day throwing to Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker, pushing the ball downfield against a bad Bears defense. But that came with a massive cost: this was the worst defensive showing in Panthers franchise history. Chicago converted 10 of 14 first downs, ran for 291 yards, and put up 59 points on Carolina in a 59-37 shootout. Scoring 37 wins most games — it didn't here. Bijan Robinson is going to be a serious problem for this defense; he went for 21 carries/83 yards and added 8 catches for 90 yards and a score last week.

Atlanta's defense, meanwhile, was fine. They held Pittsburgh to 264 total yards (58 rushing), got 4 sacks, and kept the Steelers to 3-of-13 on third down. Carolina is also 0-9 straight-up and against the spread as a favorite — a trend worth remembering here.

So: we're on Atlanta, but we wait for the QB news.

The Under is where I have real conviction. As bad as Carolina's defense looked, they're not facing Caleb Williams this week — whoever starts for Atlanta is going to struggle to move the ball. I'm also not a believer in Bryce Young sustaining that kind of production, and Atlanta's defense should be strong at home.

One more angle: I dug up a trend from Totals Tipsheet — same-division games where the road team is favored and the total is 39 or higher have gone 28-46 to the Under all-time (65%), and 1-9 (90%) over the last five years.

Play: Panthers vs. Falcons Under 44 (-110)

Let's cash some tickets!

For one of my top free picks here for Sunday in the NFL I am looking at the Washington Commanders at the Dallas Cowboys. Both teams off a loss but the Commanders were in Philadelphia playing the best team in the NFC East the Eagles. Cowboys couldn’t get it done in New York huge difference. Washington should be able to keep this one within a field goal. Washington has the better defense and I think this team can run the ball against Dallas.

Play on the Washington Commanders plus the points rotation #271

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