Today’s Best Free Sports Betting Picks and Predictions From Our Experts

3* on over

1* Free Pick on North Carolina/TCU: under 46½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1* FREE INFO PLAY Jacksonville State +7 -105

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Phillies/Angels OVER 8

The Phillies have been white hot at the plate for the past month.  The Phillies have scored 4 runs or more in 22 of their last 26 games overall, including 6 runs or more in nine of their last 12 contests.  The OVER is 8-3 in their last 11 games overall with 10 or more combined runs in eight of those 11.  The Phillies and their opponents have gone for 8 or more combined runs in 16 of their last 20 games overall.  They will get to Reid Detmers tonight.  The Angels should also get their bats going against Andrew Painter, who is the weakest link in this Philadelphia rotation.  Painter is 3-8 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 17 starts and two relief outings this season.  The OVER is 6-0 in Painter's last six starts with 10 or more combined runs in all six.  The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Phillies and Mariners with 10 or more combined runs in nine of them.  Give me the OVER.

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1* Best Bet on Angels +124

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1* Free Sharp Play on Angels +127

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Soccer Take Houston over San Jose (8:30 p.m. EST, Saturday August 29) We have been doing well with our free soccer picks, so let’s grab another winner this Saturday. San Jose was high in the MLS standings to start the season with nine wins in 10 matches, but they haven’t won since before the World Cup. Since June, they have five losses and a draw, with a goal differential of -14. They hosted another struggling side, Minnesota, on Saturday, and this was the worst loss yet, a 5-1 home loss. They gave up during that match, and that seemed like a spot where they might circle the wagons and give an inspired performance. But instead, it seems like they didn’t care. They have been plummeting in the standings, and we just don’t see them raising their level of play here on the road against Houston, the No. 2 side in the Western Conference. Houston has collected 22 points at home in 10 matches, with seven outright wins and a +6 goal differential. They have won 11 of 15 home meetings against San Jose. The Earthquakes have conceded at least a goal now in 17 straight matches, and the defense and goalkeeping has been dreadful and seems to be getting worse by the match. We think this number will rise as the match gets closer, so jump on this one early!

I will take the Phillies over Angels on Friday despite Reid Detmers‘ great stretch run for Los Angeles. Detmers boasts a 3.62 ERA and has been fantastic since the All-Star break, but Philly has also hit lefties well this month, posting a .300 batting average against southpaws in the past two weeks.

Andrew Painter’s recent success may be more important. The rookie’s season stats are terrible (3-8, 6.04 ERA), but he was dominant in his last outing. Painter held the Cardinals to one run on seven hits over seven innings with eight strikeouts and zero walks. He had much more command of his fastball and secondary offerings, inducing swings and misses at a high rate. If he pitches like that again, Painter and the Phillies staff have a better matchup than the surface ERA indicates.

Philadelphia’s offense is deeper and more potent too. Kyle Schwarber has crushed 40 homers, Bryce Harper is currently on base in 29 consecutive games, and the Phillies had a nine-game winning streak snapped with two losses in Seattle. They responded with a blowout win over the Mariners, winning 6-0 on Wednesday.

The Angels are trending in the opposite direction. They are 52-82, have lost four straight games heading into this series, and were just swept in a four-game series by the Cleveland Guardians. Philly is 74-60 and still jockeying for postseason positioning, while the Angels own a horrid record against right-handed pitching (39-54).

Detmers should keep the game close early, but Philadelphia’s lineup and Painter’s recent positive momentum give me enough reasons to believe the Phillies can take over this game through the entire nine innings.

Jim's Play: 979. Phillies

Looking at the Week 0 board this year, one number keeps staring me right in the face. TCU laying a touchdown against North Carolina over in Dublin feels like the cleanest play on the early slate.

I have been on this one for a while now. TCU has the more settled roster, especially in the trenches, and that continuity matters more than most people want to admit in Week 0. North Carolina is still sorting through a heavy overhaul in Belichick’s second season, with a new offensive coordinator trying to install a system on the fly and a pile of new bodies who have not taken meaningful snaps together yet. In college football, that gap tends to show up early, especially when both teams have to fly across the ocean for a noon kick.

Neutral-site openers have always been kind to the more physical, more experienced side. Over the last fifteen years, favorites laying between six and eight points in true neutral-site season openers have covered right around 58 percent of the time. At standard juice you only need to hit 52.4 percent to break even, so that edge is real. When you tighten the filter to games that involved long-haul or overseas travel, the favorite’s cover rate climbs closer to 61 percent and the under hits nearly 60 percent of the time. The average total in those spots has finished almost four points under the number. Jet lag is no joke, and neither is limited practice time before a transatlantic flight.

TCU has been the more consistent outfit under Sonny Dykes. His teams usually play with a clear physical identity and they do not mind grinding it out early in the season. North Carolina, meanwhile, has spent the last couple of years looking like a roster still trying to figure out who belongs where. Historical trends for ACC teams opening against Big 12 competition on neutral fields lean toward the side with better line continuity, and TCU checks that box. Favorites in this exact range that also held a clear edge up front have covered better than 60 percent since the mid-2010s. That is the kind of number that keeps the lights on if you stay disciplined.

I will take the under as a secondary piece if the total sits near 48. Early-season scoring is often suppressed when teams are still installing, traveling, and playing a little tight. Both sides prefer a physical brand of football, and that style rarely produces fireworks in the first half of a Week 0 game on foreign soil.

Hawai’i getting points at Stanford and Memphis as a small dog against UNLV are fine secondary looks if you like chasing value on the dog side. I generally leave the massive numbers alone unless the total is screaming. This TCU spot is different. It is the kind of early-season situation where the sharper side of the board usually cashes, and the travel factor only adds another layer of protection.

I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again, but this one sits right with me. Continuity, trenches, travel, and the historical numbers all point the same direction. If the line drifts a half-point either way I am still on it. Good luck if you decide to ride along.

Note: I bet this selection while was able to get -7. But it s still good at this number.

Please unless your a weekend warrior do not buy off the hook.

BUYING OFF THE HOOK 

Buying off the hook is one of those moves that feels smart in the moment and slowly bleeds you over time. I have watched plenty of sharp money and square money both fall into the same trap, and the long-term numbers do not lie. You are paying extra juice to move the line half a point or a full point so a common final margin turns into a push or a win instead of a loss. Classic example is laying the three and a half instead of the three, or taking the plus three and a half instead of the plus three. The hook disappears, your ticket looks safer, and the price quietly climbs from minus one-ten to minus one-twenty or worse.

That extra juice is the real problem. Standard minus one-ten needs you to cash about fifty-two point four percent just to break even. Jump to minus one-twenty and you need roughly fifty-four and a half percent. At minus one-thirty you are staring at fifty-six and a half percent. Those two to four extra points of required win rate add up fast across a season. The probability of a game landing exactly on the number you bought off is almost never high enough to cover the cost over hundreds of plays.

Football is where the conversation gets loudest because the key numbers actually matter. Three and seven have historically been the biggest hooks in both the NFL and college game. League-wide data over the last decade shows finals of three happening in the high teens percentage range and sevens in the low double digits. Buying off those numbers is the only spot where the math gets closer to break-even. Even then you are usually still overpaying. Outside of those true keys the half-points become pure juice leaks. Teams that routinely buy from three and a half to three or from seven and a half to seven have shown thin or negative edges once you factor in the price.

Basketball is a different animal. NBA and college totals and spreads move around half-points constantly, but the distribution of final margins is flatter. Landing exactly on a three or a four happens less often than football’s big keys, so the value of buying the half-point is even thinner. Same story in baseball with the run line. Buying from one and a half to one or two and a half to two costs you juice that the frequency of those exact margins rarely repays. Soccer worldwide, whether Premier League, La Liga, Serie A or the big South American leagues, runs mostly on Asian handicaps where the half-goal and quarter-goal moves are already priced aggressively. Buying further off the number there is usually just giving the book more of your money for protection you do not need.

I have seen the same pattern in hockey, tennis, and the rest of the major venues. The public loves the feeling of being off the hook. The long-term winners almost never make it a habit. They would rather shop for the best available number, take the standard juice, and live with the occasional hook loss. The ones who grind out profits treat buying points like a last resort, not a regular tool. Only when the price is unusually soft on a true key number does the play even enter the conversation, and those spots are rare.

The bottom line is simple. Occasional, selective buys off a real key number at a fair price can be tolerable. Making it standard operating procedure is a slow leak that compounds against you. The juice almost always costs more than the protection is worth. Stay patient, shop the numbers, and let the hooks fall where they fall. That approach has kept more bankrolls healthy than any amount of buying ever will.

Alex Smart

Our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies to defeat the Los Angeles Angels on Friday at 9:38pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Philadelphia will start Andrew Painter -- The statistics don't tell the story. He's really upped his game this month and we expect it to continue.

The Phillies have won 61.7% of their games this year while playing as a road favorite.

Los Angeles will start Reid Detmers -- He's got great stats. But, his team isn't good and his record is horrible at home.

The Angels are just 14-25 this season when playing against opponents from the National League.

We're on Philadelphia.

AAA Sports

#969 ASA MLB FREE PLAY ON Baltimore Orioles -110 over Athletics, Friday @ 9:40 ET - The Orioles are expected to start Young here and he is 7-1 with a 3.67 ERA on the road this season. He also has been in strong current form with a 3.69 ERA since the All Star break. The Athletics might start Lopez here and he is a respectable starting pitcher but the Athletics still have a bad bullpen plus they have one of the worst overall home records in the majors this season. The O's are still clinging to hopes of a Wild Card spot while the A's season is over. Yes the Athletics have won B2B games but this is not a team that goes on long winning streaks. Their 2-game run ends right here. FREE PLAY on Baltimore -110

Florida State finished last season with a disappointing 5-7 overall record and a 2-6 conference record.  They were 5-2 at home and 0-5 on the road.  The Seminoles put up 33 points per game and allowed 22 points per game. New Mexico State finished last season with a 4-8 overall record and a  2-6 conference record. They were 3-3 at home and 1-5 on the road. The Aggies scored 21.6 points per game and allowed 27.6 points per game. New Mexico State has lost each of its last 10 road openers. New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight games in August. Florida State has lost four of its last five season openers as a favorite. Florida State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five season openers as a favorite. Florida State needs to show an improvement over last season. They are the better team, but this is a lot of points in an opener for a team that has failed to cover in five straight openers.

Play on New Mexico State. This is a FREE play,