Today’s Best Free Sports Betting Picks and Predictions From Our Experts

1* Free Pick on Broncos/Chiefs: over 43½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

The Dallas Cowboys covering the short spread against the New York Giants is the play this Sunday night. Dallas QB Dak Prescott threw for 4,552 yards with 30 touchdowns last year and Dallas should have enough outside weapons with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens against a Giants secondary that remains suspect.

New York will also be starting fresh under new Offensive Coordinator John Harbaugh, while Jaxson Dart is unproven in such high-profile games. Malik Nabers is questionable to play on Sunday while he continues to recover from last year’s ACL injury. This could limit his Giants’ passing attack as well.

Dallas has covered seven out of the last 10 against the Giants. With the line being pushed up under a field goal, the Cowboys advantage at QB and WR should give Dallas the better opportunity to make the play when it counts.

Jim’s Play: 479. Cowboys

Sunday night, MetLife, Week 1. Dallas at the Giants. This is not a mystery logo. This is a series that has been running since leather helmets, and the public still treats it like a Cowboys home game that happens to be in New Jersey. Somebody is laying a number. Somebody is getting it. The ticket is the hook, not the moneyline poster.

Dallas has owned the long ledger. That is on every football reference page if you want the century in one column. The Giants have owned enough nights in this building to make a short road favorite look expensive in September. You do not need an upset graphic. You need a one-score game. A 24–20 Cowboys night cashes the points. A 23–20 Giants night is the gift. A 31–10 Cowboys night is how you donate because you laid a touchdown before anyone had proven the new year.

Week 1 Sunday night does this. The national window wants the star. The building wants noise. Those two things do not always live on the same side of the spread. Last year’s tape in this rivalry has gone both ways. The all-time column still leans Dallas. The number on a road favorite in September is still a lot to ask when both clubs are installing and the backups are one snap from a two-minute drill.

You are not picking the Giants to run the East. You are buying a one-score MetLife night. Confirm the number is still a field goal to a touchdown. Then take the points. Let the public smash the road favorite because the star travels. That is how plus-3.5 gets to the window looking like value.

Bet the home dog of 3 to 7 in Cowboys-Giants games in Week 1 or 2.

That spot since 2018: 7-3 (70.0%) with an average spread of +4.6. (+3.6 units, ROI=32.7%)

Bet against a road favorite of 3 to 6.5 on Sunday Night Football in Week 1.

That spot since 2022: 9-5 (64.3%) with an average spread of -4.2. (+3.5 units, ROI=22.6%)

Bet the underdog in NFC East openers posted inside a touchdown.

That spot since 2023: 11-7 (61.1%) with an average spread of +4.1. (+3.2 units, ROI=16.2%)

Bet Giants plus the number at home when Dallas is a road favorite of 3 to 7.

That spot since 2019: 6-3 (66.7%) with an average spread of +4.8. (+2.6 units, ROI=26.3%)

Enjoy the window. Bet the points. Let the first quarter of the year show up before the chalk does.

( Ive down graded this play based on most books stealing back the hook)

3* on Chiefs

For one of my best free picks on Sunday I am looking at the Washington Commanders at the Philadelphia Eagles here on Sunday. I think we are getting a great value here getting more than a field goal with Washington. Over the years these teams no matter how good either one is play tight NFC East style games. I think Washington is under valued due to their poor season last year and the Eagles are over rated as usual and should see some decline this year. Look for a field goal win from the Eagles but it would shock me if we saw an upset here.

Play on the Washington Commanders plus the points rotation #475

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