Today’s Best Free Sports Betting Picks and Predictions From Our Experts

[1%] Free Play on Red Sox +123

Recommended Bet: Celta de Vigo -120

*3 Star Free Play Over* Both of these teams rank in the top ten in the country in tempo. Briles is pushing South Carolina to play much quicker in his first year as OC. Jeff Lebby's teams always prefer to play fast, and now they have an elite quarterback in charge of the offense.

Mississippi State's offense has put up 46 plays of ten yards or more in two games. This is a really explosive offense. Kamario Taylor is an elite playmaker at the quarterback position, and I do think he'll give the South Carolina defense fits.

Lanorris Sellers is an excellent quarterback too, and South Carolina is easily the best offense that Mississippi State has gone against thus far. South Carolina's wide receivers have dropped a bunch of passes so far, but that should improve in time. Harbor is a big play guy who could hit an explosive at any time.

Lebby and Briles are elite offensive minds. They have excellent quarterbacks controlling things as well.

The Miss State defense will be exposed by the best offenses, and I think their regression toward the mean begins here.

A fast paced game. Take the over.

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Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Louisville ML -115

The Louisville Cardinals will be playing with double revenge here.  Jeff Brohm is 29-13 at Louisville, but two of those losses came to the SMU Mustangs over the last two seasons.  After falling 34-27 at home to SMU in 2024, the Cardinals were blown out 38-6 at SMU last year.  It's safe to say they have had this game circled all offseason.

Louisville's only loss by more than 7 points over the last two seasons came 38-6 to SMU last year.  But that loss comes with a big asterisk.  The Cardinals were coming off two losses to Cal and Clemson by a combined 4 points that eliminated them from ACC title contention.  They were flat as a pancake against SMU with nothing to play for.  QB Miller Moss and both stud RB's were out for that game for Louisville, too.

Now the Cardinals are loaded in 2026 and a legit ACC title contender.  Brohm crushed the transfer portal in the offseason bringing in eight transfers who were starters at other programs, giving the Cardinals 14 returning starters overall.  They have arguably the best 1-2 punch at RB in the country in Isaac Brown (884 yards, 7 TD, 8.8 YPC last year) and Keyjuan Brown (704 yards, 6 TD, 7.3 YPC).  They added QB Lincoln Kienholz who was in a battle with Julian Sayin last season for the starting QB job at Ohio State.  They also added Vandy WR transfer Tre Richardson and FSU WR transfer Lewayne McCoy to give Kienholz the weapons he needs to succeed.

Four starters and four of the top nine tacklers are back from a defense that allowed just 21.2 points per game last season.  And defense is where Brohm gets overlooked because he's an offensive guy, but he notoriously has great defenses as his teams have allowed 21.3 points per game or fewer in three of the last four seasons, and the 24.1 points per game in 2024 was the lone exception.  The Cardinals are loaded at LB this season and bring back their best defensive lineman in DE Cleve Lubin (61 tackles, 8.5 sacks last year).

Louisville opened with an impressive 41-38 loss at the buzzer to Ole Miss, which made the college football playoff semifinals last year and brought back a ton of talent from that team.  Keinholz was shaky in the first half of his first start which was understandable.  But he settled in and shined in the 2H, finishing with 307 passing yards and 2 TD along with 69 rushing yards and a score.  His dual-threat ability will give Brohm a ton of versatility with his offense moving forward.  The Cardinals had to play five days later and blasted Villanova 59-13 on September 11th.  They get an extra day to prepare for SMU now and it is a hidden advantage heading into this game.

No question Rhett Lashlee is one of the better coaches in the country with what he has been able to do at SMU.  But he has also benefited from a pretty soft schedule the last two seasons.  I like this SMU offense led by QB Kevin Jennings, but the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Mustangs only returned three starters on defense this season and I think will take a step back on that side of the ball.

SMU's 27-24 win at Florida State in the opener isn't that impressive.  FSU is one of the most overrated teams in the country again this season, struggling with New Mexico State at home in the opener.  I fully expect the Seminoles to get blasted by Alabama this week.  SMU came back with a 56-10 win over UC Davis and wasn't tested there either.

The fact that Louisville has been tested against a team of Ole Miss' caliber will pay dividends late in this game.  I believe the Cardinals are the better team this season, and with home-field advantage this game shouldn't be lined below -3.  Bet Louisville on the money line Saturday.

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Ricky's 1* play on TB.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 home games.

- Freddy Peralta is 4-0 in his last 4 starts for the Rays.

- The Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 games.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

Saturday's CFB Free Pick

PLAY ON: Miss State +4

1* Free Pick on Raiders +7

The Chargers opened as double-digit home favorites against Arizona last week and lost 26-14.

Now the market is asking them to win by more than a touchdown against a better opponent.

That's a price I'll take.

Both teams have played 1 game this season, so this is about the matchup and the number, not streaks.

And the Week 1 tape favors Vegas.

The Raiders posted 5 sacks against Miami, tied for the NFL lead, with Kwity Paye getting 2 and Maxx Crosby adding 1.5.

Justin Herbert was sacked 3 times by Arizona and threw a pick.

That pass rush against that protection is the core of this play.

Herbert's weapons are thinning out too.

Ladd McConkey is questionable with a rib injury, and KeAndre Lambert-Smith landed on injured reserve.

If McConkey sits or plays limited, this offense runs through Quentin Johnston, who caught 2 of 6 targets last week.

On the other side, Ashton Jeanty went 23 for 102 on the ground and added 6 catches for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He controls tempo and keeps this game short.

The fair knock on Vegas is Kirk Cousins.

Two interceptions and 160 passing yards in Week 1 is real, and he'll give one away here too.

But I don't need Cousins to win the game.

I need Jeanty and that front seven to keep it inside a touchdown, and the Raiders held Miami to 13 points and 259 total yards doing exactly that.

Getting the full 7 covers the most common margin in football.

That's line value.

I like the Raiders

1* NFL - Steelers/Patriots FREE PICK on Patriots -5

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Texas State -2.5

The Key: Texas State is 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS this year with a couple misleading losses.  They lost 59-7 at Texas but were only outgained by 167 yards.  They lost 31-26 at home to UTSA despite outgaining the Roadrunners by 83 yards.  North Texas is 1-1 SU but 2-0 ATS this season losing by 36 to Indiana as 40.5-point dogs and crushing UNLV 44-6 as 3-point dogs.  That blowout win over UNLV has the Mean Green getting too much respect.  UNLV was in a terrible spot coming off a win at Hawaii, having to travel back home and then back out to Texas.  The Rebels didn't show up at all.  Keep in mind North Texas is replacing all 22 starters this season and was expected to be one of the worst teams in the nation.  Texas State had 11 starters back and was supposed to be one of the better Group of 6 teams.  Texas State outgained UTSA by 83 yards despite playing without its top two receivers in Sample and Sparks.  There's a good chance Sample returns this week and Sparks possibly could too.  That would give the offense a huge boost.  But I like the Bobcats either way here.  I expect an inspired effort after their 0-2 start against a tough schedule.  Take Texas State.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY UTEP +36 -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Alabama -19

The Alabama Crimson Tide enter Year 3 of the Kalen DeBoer era.  He has the players in place now to fit his system, and the Crimson Tide are off and running.  Alabama crushed East Carolina 48-10 as 28.5-point home favorites in the opener before also throttling Kentucky 45-17 as 9.5-point favorites on the road to open SEC play.  There will be no letdown here as Alabama wants revenge from a shocking loss to Florida State last season.  But this is a very bad Florida State team.  The Seminoles only beat New Mexico State 34-17 as 31.5-point home favorites in their opener.  They only outgained the Aggies by 100 yards.  Their 27-24 home loss to SMU last week was probably the most misleading final of the season to this point.  SMU had 585 yards and 8.7 per play on offense but committed four turnovers.  FSU managed just 324 yards and 4.8 per play, getting outgained by 261 yards and 3.9 per play.  There are already rumors that Mike Norvell will be fired after this game.  Give me Alabama.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Braves vs Astros under 8½ -115

Massive Saturday Card up with 3 Big CFB Totals one is the Non Conference TOTAL of the Year. There is a RED ZONE Top Side and 3 more best bets. Last Saturday we went 6-1 and are the only 2 time CFB Seasonal Champs. Comp play below.
 
The Saturday CFB Comp Play is on Toledo -6. Game 140 at 3 eastern. The Rockets hung tough in a opening week loss at Michigan St then bounced back here at home last week to crush Central Connecticut. Now they get Temple who lost at home by 18 to Penn. St. Rob notes that home favorites of 17 or less that scored 49 or more in a home favored win have covered 9 of 11 since 1983 vs a team that was a dog of at least 14 points in their last game. Look for Toledo to get the cover. GL Rob V-
 
 
SU: 11-0 
ATS: 9-2 ATS
 
Team: 37.9
Opp: 15.5
 
 
Oct 10, 1998 - Sat 7 1998 AIR NAVY home 21-0 14-0 7-7 7-0 49-7 -14.5 None 42 27.5 - - - W W - 0
Oct 11, 2003 07:00 Sat 8 2003 TXT IWST home 14-7 7-7 24-7 7-0 52-21 -16.5 None 31 14.5 - - - W W - 0
Nov 06, 2004 10:05 Sat 11 2004 NEV SJST home 7-0 7-0 14-10 14-14 42-24 -14 None 18 4 - - - W W - 0
Nov 13, 2010 01:21 Sat 11 2010 KTKY VAN home 3-3 7-10 14-0 14-7 38-20 -15.5 54 18 2.5 4 3.25 0.75 W W O 0
Sep 08, 2012 07:00 Sat 2 2012 MIS UTEP home 7-0 14-0 0-10 7-0 28-10 -8 55.5 18 10 -17.5 -3.75 -13.75 W W U 0
Oct 04, 2014 03:30 Sat 6 2014 CLEM NCST home 21-0 10-0 10-0 0-0 41-0 -14.5 64.5 41 26.5 -23.5 1.5 -25.0 W W U 0
Oct 08, 2016 03:30 Sat 6 2016 OKST IWST home 7-3 7-14 7-14 17-0 38-31 -15 67.5 7 -8 1.5 -3.25 4.75 W L O 0
Oct 13, 2018 01:00 Sat 7 2018 MONM BUCK home 0-0 9-6 7-7 20-6 36-19 -12 56.5 17 5 -1.5 1.75 -3.25 W W U 0
Nov 10, 2018 04:00 Sat 11 2018 MONS NCOL home 7-7 14-0 0-0 14-0 35-7 -14.5 59.5 28 13.5 -17.5 -2.0 -15.5 W W U 0
Sep 21, 2019 04:00 Sat 4 2019 MIZ SCAR home 7-0 10-7 14-7 3-0 34-14 -9.5 61.5 20 10.5 -13.5 -1.5 -12.0 W W U 0
Oct 08, 2022 12:00 Sat 6 2022 FLA MIZ home 10-0 0-10 7-0 7-7 24-17 -11 53.5 7 -4 -12.5 -8.25 -4.25 W L U 0
 
Sep 19, 2026 03:00 Sat 3 2026 TOL TEM home - - - - - -5.5 50.5

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Soccer Take San Jose +0.5 GL over LAFC (7:30 p.m. EST, Saturday September 19) San Jose hadn’t won a match since the World Cup up until recently but lo and behold they have now won two straight and look like a completely different side. They manhandled a good San Diego side on the road in a 3-2 win that was more dominant than the final score might indicate. And last week they gutted out a 1-0 win here at home vs. a Houston side that is one of the top teams in the Western Conference. We were on San Jose in that one and mentioned in our writeup that one of the main problems with the Earthquakes since the World Cup break is that they were lacking confidence and now they seem to have it back in spades and their play has been exceptionally strong. They are now unbeaten in four straight matches, and they are back in a Top 4 spot in the West with a chance to move higher with three points here. We only need a draw however, to cash this ticket, and we think they can do enough to get at least a point. LAFC is coming off a 3-1 road loss at Kansas City, one of MLS’s worst sides. LAFC are behind the Earthquakes in the standings despite all the struggles San Jose has faced since the World Cup break. They have only one win in their last eight MLS matches, and this side is just not playing championship-caliber futbol right now. San Jose always raises their level of play when LAFC comes to town and have won five of the last six meetings here.

1* Free Pick on Kentucky +17½ -115

Last week’s college football got us all paid, especially with my big game releases. This week, we’re going to take it up a notch as we make a big payday together in NCAAF: 1-0 EARLY WINNER, 1-0 CONSENSUS WINNER, 1-0 UNDER THE RADAR WINNER, my first HIGH ROLLER WINNER, and my first NO LIMIT WINNER. Get ‘em all, and make Saturday a PAYDAY!

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: Alabama Crimson Tide.

Game 150.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

This will be the third consecutive week. I’ve come in on the Tide with a free play release, and I expect it will be my third consecutive week winning my free play release. Yes, this is a lot of points. But a win is a win, my friends. They say revenge is a dish best served cold. Well, I think we can all agree the way these two teams have looked thus far this early in the regular season ‘Bama will be serving up a big cold dish of revenge. If you recall a season ago, these two teams met in their season opener back at the end of August when Alabama was nearly a two-touchdown favorite, and fell short, 31-17. After that, the Crimson Tide then rattled off eight consecutive wins and overall, 10 victories in their final 11 games. This is a game they’ve had circled since the schedule came out. Last season was a disaster for the Seminoles. This season began with high expectations. However, in their first game of the regular season at home as a 31.5-point favorite, they eked out a 17-point victory over New Mexico State. A week later also at home, they were bested by SMU, 27-24. Going back a bit, they have now failed to cover four in a row and eight of their last 10 contests. To say this team is point spread poison would be an understatement. The Crimson Tide began this campaign demolishing East Carolina at home, 48-10. Then a week later on the road trailing at the midway point, came back big-time in the second half and crushed Kentucky, 45-17. Their young quarterback, Russell took responsibility for several first half miscues, and showed his maturity in the second half of play. They will ride that momentum into this week’s matchup as they’re looking to redeem themselves from last season’s early loss at the hands of this opponent. Granted FSU is coming off a bye, and had extra time to prep. But they just don’t have the talent to compete here. Seminoles quarterback, Ashton Daniels is in for a long day here going up against a very stout, ferocious, ‘Bama stop-unit. I’m not impressed with this young man. And I think things go from bad to worse for him. Roll Tide. Thank you.

Chip’s College Football Triple Play Winners

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SMU at Louisville 3:30 ET

Mustangs/Cardinals OVER- I am so impressed with this SMU squad especially because of the way they kept a weakling like Florida State in the game winning 27-24 and followed that with a 56-10 win over UC-Davis. Louisville showed incredible offensive skills in their 41-38 loss to Mississippi and then rebounded with a 59-13 win over Villanova. What bothers me here is the Louisville is the favorite after having been so under-rated as a dog to Mississippi. The may be a bad moon raising but I lie the Mustangs to corral the Red-birds. PLAY OVER!

UNDER 48

Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the UNDER. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL O/U Play

FOOTBALL IS HERE! 425-360 54% +2875 since Mid-Dec! The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. Tons of football up this week. Purchase a 7-day pass for best value! Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access too! Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Saturday night in Los Angeles has that rematch-tax feel, a title fight priced like a coin flip because the first one lasted 26 seconds, and plus-110 on Alexandre Pantoja is the side I want you holding. Not because Joshua Van is a mirage. Because Van is 17-2 and the champ, and the market flipped a former titleholder into plus money off an arm injury, not off five rounds of solved tape. You are not fading Van to lose his belt in a street fight. You are fading the idea that 26 seconds is a hierarchy. That is a different ticket. Decision cashes. Late stoppage cashes. A wrestling grind into a submission is the gift. The chalk is the dart if you want to pay juice to sleep. The plus money is the work.

Bet Pantoja as a plus-money rematch dog after an injury stoppage under one minute. First meeting at UFC 323: Van by TKO at 0:26 after Pantoja’s arm gave out, not after Van pieced him up for 25 minutes. Pantoja entered that booking as a sizable favorite in the minus-185 to minus-270 range. Now he sits plus-110 to plus-118. That flip is the number. (+1.0 units, ROI=90.9%). Bet former champions getting immediate rematches when the first fight produced almost no film. Pantoja 30-6, belt for more than two years, 12 career submissions. Van 17-2 with one successful defense, a fifth-round stoppage of Tatsuro Taira at UFC 328. The tape on this pairing is still a scramble. (+1.0 units, ROI=81.8%). Bet the dog when the favorite’s title win is a 26-second sample and the veteran’s path is wrestling and pace. If this starts round two, the injury result starts looking like a bad price, not a settled pecking order. (+1.0 units, ROI=90.9%).

Van is the younger pressure fighter and the market is buying the momentum. Fair. He is 17-2, the flyweight champion, and he finished Taira in the fifth after a long, ugly climb. That is real. The other side of the ledger is just as loud if you actually read it. Pantoja is 30-6. He held the belt more than two years. He has 12 submission wins. His whole career has been get it to the mat, squeeze the air out of the room, and make five-round title fights feel like a tax. A full camp and a healthy arm is a different animal than a first-minute scramble that ended before anyone’s corner could stand up. Van by decision or late stoppage is the public script. Pantoja by control and a late hook is the ticket that still has math behind it.

The rest of the plus-money board at UFC 331 is louder and thinner, which is how main-card dogs get you chasing heat instead of price. Mauricio Ruffy is plus-245 to plus-270 against Arman Tsarukyan, 14-2 power against a 23-3 wrestler who wants a lightweight title shot. That is a one-punch live dog, not a process. Marlon Vera is plus-180 to plus-200 against Charles Jourdain, a former title challenger on a four-fight skid, 23-12-1 with 18 career finishes, eight by knockout and 10 by submission, still dangerous late and still leaking decisions. Alonzo Menifield is plus-190 to plus-215 against Iwo Baraniewski, veteran 18-6-1 power versus a 9-0 kid with three straight first-round knockouts in the UFC and an average fight time near a minute. Those are action tickets. You can sprinkle them if you like chaos. They are not the cleanest number on the card.

UFC stats sheets do not care about coronation graphics. Van’s recent form is pressure, volume, and a fifth-round finish. Pantoja’s career sheet is title minutes, takedown sequences, and a submission rate that turns round four into a different sport. The first fight did not test either of those things. It tested an elbow. Over 3.5 rounds is sitting in a range that tells you the market itself does not believe this ends in 26 seconds again. Fight goes the distance is plus money. Pantoja by submission is the long shot that actually matches his 12-sub ledger if he ever gets on top. I am not asking you to live on method props. I am asking you to stop treating an injury TKO like a five-round dissertation.

Public money will hammer Van because he is the champ, because Taira went away in the fifth, and because “once you have the belt the rematch is yours.” That is how plus-110 gets to the window looking like a fade instead of a former champion priced off a broken sample. Do not buy this down into a pick’em and pay extra juice to feel safer. The plus-110 is the reason I am writing it. Sit on your hands. Let the first two minutes look messy. If they are still standing in round two and Pantoja has even one takedown in the bank, the number is already working.

I’ve sat through enough rematch cards to know the chaos is real, 26-second titles create fake certainty, young champs get bet like they’ve already solved the veteran, and a 30-6 former titleholder with 12 submissions does not turn into a plus-money tourist just because an arm gave out before the first commercial. If Van walks through him again, we tip the cap and move on. If this thing lives in the wrestling and the late minutes, the plus money does what we paid it to do. That is the bet. Take Pantoja. Do not overthink the 26-second coronation. The first fight did not answer the question. Alexandre Pantoja plus-110 is the play.

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Scoring was up around the league last Sunday and nowhere was that more pronounced than in Carolina where the Bears put up nearly 60 points in a wild contest. Chicago head coach Ben Johnson said prior to the start of the regular season that he didn't just want his team's offense to be good this year, but record-setting. So far, so good. I do think the Bears will face a lot more resistance this week as they take on Brian Flores' Vikings defense. Minnesota got off to a slow start against Green Bay but ultimately took over proceedings in the fourth quarter to pull away for a season-opening victory. With that being said, it did lose QB Kyler Murray to a scary-looking concussion in that game, pressing Carson Wentz into action. I don't think the Vikes will want any part of a shootout with this loaded Bears offense on Sunday. In this divisional matchup, I simply feel this total is too high as an overreaction to last week's results. Take the under (8*).

Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati College Football Free Pick

The Angle(s): A rivalry game getting an inflated number like this is a situation where the dog is almost always worth a look.

The situational logic writes itself: this is an in-state rivalry with decades of history, and rivalry games have a well-documented habit of playing tighter than the talent gap suggests, as players on both sides circle this one, and the underdog frequently hangs around deep into the second half. Asking Miami (OH) to simply stay within this number is a far lower bar than asking them to win, and getting a rivalry dog at a friendly number is exactly the kind of spot that quietly provides long-term +EV.

The Bet: Miami-OH ATS (3%). 

Mike “The Moneymaker” Lundin is unloading 4 CFB premium picks + 1 MLB for Saturday, and the headliners are 3 x 4% TOP PLAYS! When Mike drops a package this loaded, the books should be sweating. Don’t sleep on this MULTI-PICK 5-PACK STEAL.

Marc David Sports' Free Pick

We really like the road favorite in this matchup. UConn (1-1) enters Hattiesburg aiming to rebound after a tough non-conference clash against Maryland. The Huskies showed off their explosive offensive potential in their season opener with a 56-7 routing of Lafayette, demonstrating their ability to score in bunches when giving their playmakers space downfield.

Southern Miss (1-1) returns home following a physical 43-8 defeat against Auburn, where their defensive unit struggled to contain quick edge plays and extended drives. While the Golden Eagles put together a solid home performance against Alcorn State in Week 1, facing an FBS program with physical line play presents a much tougher challenge. UConn holds the advantage at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which should allow them to control game tempo and pull away in the second half to cover the spread.

This is a FREE PLAY on UCONN ATS!

16-2 (89%) L18 totals premium picks across all sports - $1,000 players are up +$13,800 since September 03, 2026! We have 4 CFB totals locked in for Saturday, incl. a 5% NCAAF *TOTAL OF THE WEEK* ⭐️MAX BET⭐!

Free Play – Take #218 UCLA -14 over Purdue (11:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, September 19)

Purdue fans should consider taking a nap if they want to catch the Boilermakers Big Ten opener, because it starts at 11 pm in Indiana against UCLA. Purdue is more skillful and has better players in coach Barry Odom’s second year, but the bar is still high even to reach .500 in this conference. UCLA is a completely different squad since Bob Chesney arrived; he’s added a culture and talent, both lacking at Westwood for some time. As far as this matchup, the Boilers have lost 15 road games in a row (5-10 ATS), and they have to score against what seems like a pretty solid Bruins defense. The home field won’t matter for the Bruins, who might have 30,000 scattered around the Rose Bowl. But speed and quickness matter, and UCLA has more of it to win by 17.

>CFB Fearless Friday Forecast 2-Pack at a Special Price! 

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DOUG UPSTONE is a highly decorated betting expert with 30 monitored titles in various sports and 114 Top 10 finishes in his stellar 24-year career. Get Doug’s Best Bets, Top Plays, Super Systems and terrific trends.

Free Pick on BYU -17 -115

3* on under

PSP Data Driven 1* Louisville.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Louisville are 6-4 in their last 10 games. Louisville are 3-1 in their last 4 home games.

Panthers vs. Falcons: Under 44 is the Play

Two 0-1 NFC South teams meet in Week 2, but they got there in very different ways — one defense just allowed 59 points, the other team doesn't have a starting quarterback.

The line has flipped. Atlanta opened as the favorite, and it's easy to see why: the Falcons QB situation. Michael Penix has already been ruled out, and I'd be shocked if Tua Tagovailoa plays either. Cooper Rush started Week 1 and looked overmatched — he's also dealing with back spasms. Jack Strand is next man up, and I think Atlanta should go with him. This offense has real weapons; it just needs someone who can get them the ball. Rush proved Week 1 that he can't. For that reason, I'm waiting on the spread until Atlanta names a starter — whoever it is should move this line back toward Carolina.

Carolina's offense actually looked legit last week. Bryce Young had a big day throwing to Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker, pushing the ball downfield against a bad Bears defense. But that came with a massive cost: this was the worst defensive showing in Panthers franchise history. Chicago converted 10 of 14 first downs, ran for 291 yards, and put up 59 points on Carolina in a 59-37 shootout. Scoring 37 wins most games — it didn't here. Bijan Robinson is going to be a serious problem for this defense; he went for 21 carries/83 yards and added 8 catches for 90 yards and a score last week.

Atlanta's defense, meanwhile, was fine. They held Pittsburgh to 264 total yards (58 rushing), got 4 sacks, and kept the Steelers to 3-of-13 on third down. Carolina is also 0-9 straight-up and against the spread as a favorite — a trend worth remembering here.

So: we're on Atlanta, but we wait for the QB news.

The Under is where I have real conviction. As bad as Carolina's defense looked, they're not facing Caleb Williams this week — whoever starts for Atlanta is going to struggle to move the ball. I'm also not a believer in Bryce Young sustaining that kind of production, and Atlanta's defense should be strong at home.

One more angle: I dug up a trend from Totals Tipsheet — same-division games where the road team is favored and the total is 39 or higher have gone 28-46 to the Under all-time (65%), and 1-9 (90%) over the last five years.

Play: Panthers vs. Falcons Under 44 (-110)

Let's cash some tickets!

For one of my top free picks here for Sunday in the NFL I am looking at the Washington Commanders at the Dallas Cowboys. Both teams off a loss but the Commanders were in Philadelphia playing the best team in the NFC East the Eagles. Cowboys couldn’t get it done in New York huge difference. Washington should be able to keep this one within a field goal. Washington has the better defense and I think this team can run the ball against Dallas.

Play on the Washington Commanders plus the points rotation #271

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