NFC Championship Game Odds – The Numbers Don’t Add Up
This is a follow up to my article published on 1/19/17 : NFC Championship Game
Earlier this week I noted that the bookmakers may be making a mistake with the player prop bets for the NFC Championship Game. The total for the game is hovering between 60-61.5. According to statisticians, this is the highest total we’ve ever seen in an NFL playoff game. The irony is that while on one hand the bookmakers are projecting significantly more scoring, the odds for individual players to score touchdowns do not appear to be adjusted.
It’s also interesting to note that the bookmakers seem to have made adjustments for both quarterbacks, but not their receivers. The over/under for total passing yards is over 300 yards for both quarterbacks, with Aaron Rodgers a -163 favorite to go over 310.5 yards. Matt Ryan is asked to go over 322.5 yards, at a price of -138. These are the current odds at BET365 as of 1/21/2017.
You would think that with such a high projected total for passing yards, this would be reflected in receiving yards as well. None of the top receivers are being projected to reach 100 yards, with the highest number belonging to Julio Jones (over/under 93.5). There are two receivers that really stand out to me, one from each team.
For Atlanta, Mohamed Sanu appears to be grossly undervalued. He’s +$130 to score a TD, his total yards are 47.5, and his total receptions is just 3.5 (over -150). He caught four passes for 44 yards and a TD against the Seahawks last week, but he had nine receptions for 84 yards and a TD in a home win over Green Bay during the regular season.
For the Packers, Randall Cobb is an absolute bargain. The Packers are so concerned about the health of Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson that they’ve promoted a receiver from the practice squad. That leaves Cobb as Green Bay’s top receiver. He’s caught 12 passes for 178 yards and three TDs in two games in these playoffs so far. He’s asked to go over 60.5 yards, 5.5 receptions and he’s +$115 to score a TD.
I just don’t think these numbers add up, and this looks like an excellent opportunity to punish bookmakers for making a rare mistake.
GL,
Jesse Schule
Win Big with Jesse Schule's Premium Picks
Jesse Schule
Jesse is ABSOLUTELY ON FIRE in the short term, but it's his long term success that's key. His numbers in the NBA Playoffs over the last 5 yrs: 134-87 +$36,330, and he's 326-237 (58%) +$55K with TOP CBB since 2014!
PREMIUM PICK STREAKS
Top All Sports Picks (+9186) 1180-918 L2098 56%
Basketball Picks (+6704) 1675-1377 L3052 55%
NBA Picks (+6426) 698-542 L1240 56%
Top NCAA-B Sides (+5791) 321-229 L550 58%
NCAA-F Picks (+4984) 598-463 L1061 56%
Football Totals (+4595) 314-245 L559 56%
Top Soccer Picks (+2930) 114-71 L185 62%
CFL Picks (+2832) 135-91 L226 60%
MLB Run Lines (+2507) 480-321 L801 60%
Top NHL Picks (+2242) 154-105 L259 59%
Top NFL Picks (+1423) 246-196 L442 56%
NFLX Picks (+1108) 19-7 L26 73%
Short-Term Subscription Options
Get All The Iceman's plays with All Sports for one day - Only $69.
Now on a 169-117 run with my last 290 All Sports picks! $1,000/game players have cashed in $29,390 on my All Sports picks since 11/08/23!
This subscription includes EVERY PREMIUM PICK I release for the next 3 days! If for any reason I don't see value on the day's card and pass, another day will be added to your account.
Join now for only $33.33/day and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 1 NBA pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
***LIMITED TIME OFFER**
As seen on Youtube... get ALL THE ICEMAN's picks with all sports for 7 days ONLY $99.99.
*This subscription currently includes 1 NBA pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
ALL SPORTS FOR 2 WEEKS FOR ALMOST HALF PRICE!
*This subscription currently includes 1 NBA pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Long-Term Subscription Options
Jesse Schule has long been notorious for PULVERIZING THE PIGSKIN, but in 2022 he kicked it up a notch. He followed up an 8-2 preseason with a PERFECT 10-0 start to the NFL regular season. He was 18-2 (90%) with college football in the month of September. There's no better time than RIGHT NOW to pick up a FULL SEASON subscription!
*This subscription currently includes 1 NBA pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
The Iceman's 9-1 start to the MLB season in 2022 was overshadowed by his PERFECT 10-0 start to the NFL season, and his 22-3 (88%) start with college football.
With Opening Day just days away, we invite you to join Jesse in his pursuit to punish the bookmakers for putting out soft lines early in the season.
We also ask you to remember…. HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF!
Now on a 169-117 run with my last 290 All Sports picks! $1,000/game players have cashed in $29,390 on my All Sports picks since 11/08/23!
This subscription includes EVERY PREMIUM PICK I release for the next 90 days! If for any reason I don't see value on the day's card and pass, another day will be added to your account.
Join now for only $8.88/day and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 1 NBA pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Now on a 169-117 run with my last 290 All Sports picks! $1,000/game players have cashed in $29,390 on my All Sports picks since 11/08/23!
This subscription includes EVERY PREMIUM PICK I release for the next 180 days! If for any reason I don't see value on the day's card and pass, another day will be added to your account.
Join now for only $4.99/day and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 1 NBA pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Now on a 169-117 run with my last 290 All Sports picks! $1,000/game players have cashed in $29,390 on my All Sports picks since 11/08/23!
This subscription includes EVERY PREMIUM PICK I release for the next 365 days! If for any reason I don't see value on the day's card and pass, another day will be added to your account.
Join now for only $4.11/day and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 1 NBA pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
#10 ranked Basketball handicapper this season!
Now on a 139-98 run with my last 237 Basketball picks! $1,000/game players have cashed in $43,320 on my Basketball picks since 12/18/21!
This subscription includes EVERY CBB & NBA PREMIUM PICK I release through the end of the NBA Finals! Join now and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 1 NBA pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Prior to the 2017 NBA Finals, The Iceman released six series proposition bets. He cashed in ALL SIX, going a PERFECT 6-0 with NBA FINALS FUTURES! He followed up in 2018 by going 5-2 with Finals futures, and then last year he SHOCKED THE WORLD picking the RAPTORS to win outright. He then swept the 2020 Finals with LA -1.5, LA & GM1 and LeBron MVP!
*This subscription currently includes 1 NBA pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Now on a 78-50 run with my last 139 MLB picks! $1,000/game players have cashed in $10,800 on my MLB picks since 04/13/18!
This subscription includes EVERY MLB PREMIUM PICK I release through the end of the World Series! Join now and start cashing in on more winners!
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 10-0 start to NFL Season (2022)
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 1-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.5 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to five percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
Top Cappers L7 Days
| Service | Profit |
|---|---|
| William Burns | $1,060 |
| Dan Kaiser | $932 |
| Jesse Schule | $566 |
| Ricky Tran | $555 |
| Ray Monohan | $518 |
| Mike Lundin | $493 |
| Tom Macrina | $430 |
| Marc Lawrence | $400 |
| Joseph D'Amico | $390 |
| Big Al McMordie | $340 |
Recent Articles
