Alabama vs. Florida Betting Preview 12/03/16 – SEC Championship Game
SEC Championship Game Betting Preview
Alabama is looking to repeat as National Champions and a win today will keep their record perfect and bring them one step closer to that repeat. They have won all 12 of their games and won by double digits in their last nine. Their defense has been almost impenetrable holding eight of their last nine opponents to 14 points or less and giving up just 18 points total in their last four games.
What makes Alabama so tough to beat is an offense that averages almost 500 yards and over 39 points a game which compliments their suffocating defense. They are led by quarterback Jalen Hurts who has thrown 21 touchdowns and is the second leading rusher on the team with over 800 yards and 12 rushing scores.
The Gators have been plagued with injuries to their quarterback Luke Del Rio who missed six games and to their once very tough defense. They are still ranked fifth in the league and give up an average of 14.6 points a game but have given up over 30 points in two of their last four games. All three of their losses happened when they allowed over 30 points in a game.
The oddsmakers have made Alabama a huge 24 point favorite and set the total at 40, a pretty low number for college football. According to Covers.com Consensus Analysis 60% of the public feel Florida deserves more respect and are backing the Gators while 62% think the total is unusually low and are behind the over.
Alabama has won the last five meetings between these teams by double digits with the total going over in four of those games.
Previous Meetings
12/05/15: Gators 15 @ Crimson Tide 29
09/20/14: Gators 21 @ Crimson Tide 42
10/01/11: Crimson Tide 38 @ Gators 10
Trends
The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings
The under is 5-0 in the Gators last 5 games overall.
The Gators have covered the spread in six of their last seven neutral site games
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 10-0 start to NFL Season (2022)
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- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 1-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.5 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to five percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
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