Broncos vs. Chiefs Betting Preview 12/25/16 – Sunday Night Football Odds
Denver Broncos (8-6) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) Betting Preview
Line/Odds: Kansas City -3 (5dimes)
Total: 37.5
Time: 8:30 pm ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.
Television Broadcast: NBC
Betting Preview
This is a big game for two teams looking for a chance to play in the post season this year. Denver is looking to make it as a wild card team but they have hurt their chances by losing three of their last four games. Their offense has really struggled lately by scoring 20 points or less in their last three games and totaling just 13 points in their last two games which resulted in losses.
Quarterback Trevor Siemian has thrown only six touchdowns in his last four starts and has just 16 touchdown passes all year. Second stringer Paxton Lynch has played in three games and has two touchdown passes and has thrown for at least 200 yards in just one of those games. Their running game which is horrible was only able to run for 74 yards total in their last two games and is now ranked 27th in the league.
The Chiefs have won eight of their last 10 games and have been very consistent on defense holding opponents below 20 points scoring in seven of their last 10 games. This has allowed an offense that averages 23 points a game scoring to win six games by eight points or less out of their last eight victories.
The oddsmakers have made the Chiefs a three point favorite and set the total at 37.5. According to Covers.com Consensus Analysis, 67% of the public are behind KC and their 5-2 home record while 54% believe the total is too low even for these teams and are backing the over.
The road team has won five of the last six meetings between these teams.
Previous Meetings
11/27/16: Chiefs 30 @ Broncos 27
11/15/15: Chiefs 29 @ Broncos 13
09/07/15: Broncos 31 @ Chiefs 24
Trends
- The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven meetings in KC
- The road team has covered the spread in their last six meetings
- The under is 8-2 in the Chiefs last 10 games overall
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
This is a 9* play on Cleveland to win.
The Browns offense struggled in Week 1 at home against the Titans, but part of the problem was that they were penalized 18 times for 182 yards. The pressure is on as they get set to take on the Jets on Monday Night Football, and this looks like a get right game for Cleveland. Sam Darnold is out and Le'Veon Bell is questionable, but the Jets injuries on defense might be even more significant. C.J. Mosely and Quinnen Williams will both be out for tonight's game, and the Bills really moved the ball in the second half last week after Mosely left. This should be good news for Nick Chubb, who ran for 75 yards on 17 carries in Week 1. I expect this game to be over at halftime, and that should mean a healthy workload for Chubb in the second half.
Take CLE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 5* play on Over 2.5.
The last time these two teams played, West Ham won by a score of 3-1. The Hammers are coming off three consecutive wins, scoring seven goals in those matches. Aston Villa scored twice in a home win over Everton in their last match at Villa Park, and given the history between these two teams I think it's unlikely that either side will post a clean sheet.
Take Over.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
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- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
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Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
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Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
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TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
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