Broncos vs. Chiefs Betting Preview 12/25/16 – Sunday Night Football Odds

December 24th, 2016

Denver Broncos (8-6) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) Betting Preview

Line/Odds: Kansas City -3 (5dimes)
Total: 37.5
Time: 8:30 pm ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.
Television Broadcast: NBC

Betting Preview

This is a big game for two teams looking for a chance to play in the post season this year. Denver is looking to make it as a wild card team but they have hurt their chances by losing three of their last four games. Their offense has really struggled lately by scoring 20 points or less in their last three games and totaling just 13 points in their last two games which resulted in losses.

Quarterback Trevor Siemian has thrown only six touchdowns in his last four starts and has just 16 touchdown passes all year. Second stringer Paxton Lynch has played in three games and has two touchdown passes and has thrown for at least 200 yards in just one of those games. Their running game which is horrible was only able to run for 74 yards total in their last two games and is now ranked 27th in the league.

The Chiefs have won eight of their last 10 games and have been very consistent on defense holding opponents below 20 points scoring in seven of their last 10 games. This has allowed an offense that averages 23 points a game scoring to win six games by eight points or less out of their last eight victories.

The oddsmakers have made the Chiefs a three point favorite and set the total at 37.5. According to Covers.com Consensus Analysis, 67% of the public are behind KC and their 5-2 home record while 54% believe the total is too low even for these teams and are backing the over.

The road team has won five of the last six meetings between these teams.

Previous Meetings

11/27/16: Chiefs 30 @ Broncos 27
11/15/15: Chiefs 29 @ Broncos 13
09/07/15: Broncos 31 @ Chiefs 24

Trends

The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven meetings in KC
The road team has covered the spread in their last six meetings
The under is 8-2 in the Chiefs last 10 games overall

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Heat vs Celtics	UNDER 209½ -108	Premium	106-101	Win	100	Show
This is an 8* play on the Under. Here is what I said prior to Game 1: "You know the story.. defense wins championships. The Celtics certainly have been playing some defense, allowing the fewest points per game (100) of any team in this year's playoffs. The Heat are right behind them, allowing 103 points per game (2nd) so far this post-season. These teams have a history of battling hard against each other, and seven of the last 10 head to head meetings have gone under the total. The Heat have failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 overall, while Boston has gone under in eight of it's last nine overall. Expect no easy buckets in Game 1." A late collapse by the Celtics allowed the Heat to force OT, and the total went well over. I expect a tighter defensive game here in Game 2. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule
Cardinals vs Pirates	Cardinals -158	Premium	1-5	Loss	-158	Show
This is an 8* play on the Cardinals. With a win today in Pittsburgh, the Cardinals can get back to .500 on the season. The starting pitching matchup certainly favors St. Louis. Dakota Hudson will toe the slab for the Cardinals, and he's been on a good run. The right-hander has appeared in four straight wins, allowing two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Pittsburgh will hand the ball to Steven Brault, who has trended in the opposite direction. Four of his last five appearances have been losses for the Pirates, and he's allowed three or more runs in three of his last four starts. The Pirates have hit a combined .199 over 63 at bats in previous meetings versus Hudson. Take STL. GL, Jesse Schule
Bengals vs Browns	Browns -6 -102	Premium	30-35	Loss	-102	Show
This is an 8* play on the Browns. Those of you who have followed my predicitions in the past are likely familiar with the saying "History Repeats Itself". We saw evidence of that being the case in Week 1, when the Browns lost by 30+ points on the road at Baltimore. They had lost in Week 1 last year by 30 points at home versus Tennessee. They came back the next week and beat the Jets by a score of 23-3, and I am expecting a similar bounce back here at home against the Bengals. Joe Burrow showed some promise in a Week 1 loss to LA, but he also showed that he's still a rookie. He threw for 193 yards and a pick on 23-of-36 passing. Joe Mixon ran for a rather pedestrian 69 yards on 19 carries. That isn't going to cut it on the road in Cleveland, against a team with significantly more offensive weapons than the Chargers team they faced just four days ago. Take CLE. GL, Jesse Schule

Broncos vs. Chiefs Betting Preview 12/25/16 – Sunday Night Football Odds

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