Broncos vs. Raiders Betting Preview 11/06/16 – NFL Predictions
Broncos vs. Raiders Betting Preview
The Broncos got some revenge last week when they beat the Chargers after losing to them in San Diego two weeks earlier. They have won two straight games and their defense held both teams under 20 points. This is a theme with Denver who have won six games this year, all when holding those teams below 20 points scoring while in both of their losses allowed more than 20 points. They have also averaged 27.5 points in the games they won and just 14.5 points in the two games they lost. Their defense is their key to winning and they are ranked eighth in total defense and fifth in scoring allowing 17 points a game.
Oakland has won five of their last six games riding the arm of quarterback Derek Carr who is ranked fifth in the league with over 2300 passing yards and 17 touchdown passes against just three picks. Unlike Denver they win games with an offense that is ranked third overall and sixth in scoring averaging 27 points a game. Quarterback Carr and their fourth ranked passing game will be tested by the Broncos’ number one pass defense this week. Their defense is ranked 31st in the league and they give up over 25 points a game.
The oddsmakers opened the game with the Raiders a 2.5 point favorite which was quickly bet down to pick’em and set the total at 43.5. According to Covers.com Consensus Analysis 56% of the public feel Denver and their defense will win the game while 62% think the total is too low and are backing the over.
Denver has won eight of the last 10 meetings between these teams.
Previous Meetings
12/13/15: Raiders 15 @ Broncos 12
10/11/15: Broncos 16 @ Raiders 10
12/28/14: Raiders 14 @ Broncos 47
Trends
- The Broncos have covered the spread in seven of their last nine meetings.
- The Raiders failed to cover the spread in their last seven home games.
- The over is 4-1 in the Raiders’ last five games overall
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 10-0 start to NFL Season (2022)
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 1-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.5 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to five percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
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