Alex Smart Premium Picks

As the NBA heads into its Sunday slate on January 25, 2026, with eight games spread from early afternoon to late night, the over/under totals present intriguing opportunities, though one matchup particularly screams value on the under: the Golden State Warriors at the Minnesota Timberwolves  with a consensus line around 235.5. While several games like the Pelicans at Spurs could push toward overs given both teams' recent defensive lapses allowing higher scoring in their last five outings, the Warriors-Timberwolves clash aligns perfectly for a lower-scoring grind, blending stout defenses, historical trends, and a unique external factor dampening the vibe in Minneapolis.

Minnesota has been a defensive powerhouse at home this season, ranking in the top 12 league-wide for points allowed and holding opponents to an average of just 108.5 over their last 10 home games, often forcing contested shots and extended possessions that disrupt offensive flow. This plays right into Golden State's road struggles, where they've averaged only 112.8 points per game away from home while ranking top 10 in defensive efficiency overall. The Warriors are dealing with key injuries that limit their interior scoring, pushing them toward perimeter reliance where they've shot below 35% from three in four of their last six away contests. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are mired in a four-game losing streak but with close margins, all by five points or fewer, featuring gritty, low-output defensive stands like 110-105 and 120-115 finals. Head-to-head, eight of the last 10 meetings have landed under 240 total points, with their most recent encounter on December 12 seeing a 127-120 finish boosted by an outlier 39-point fourth quarter from Minnesota that's unlikely to repeat here. Broader trends show Golden State's road games hitting the under at a 60% rate against top-15 defenses, and Minnesota's home tilts averaging just 226.5 combined points versus Western Conference opponents.

Adding to the under case are league-wide patterns for Sunday afternoon slots like this 5:30 PM tip, where unders have cashed over 55% since early 2025 in matchups with strong defenses, often due to sluggish starts from weekend travel or rest. This game was even rescheduled from Saturday, injecting potential fatigue for the road-weary Warriors. But the standout angle is the external shadow over the city: a fatal shooting involving federal agents on January 24 in south Minneapolis, mere miles from Target Center, has ignited protests and widespread tension, dominating local news with calls for accountability. Such civic unrest historically mutes arena atmospheres in NBA games, leading to lower attendance, distracted participants, and totals dipping 5-8 points below norms as play turns more deliberate and subdued. Betting trends reflect this, with public money chasing overs in glitzier games (like Knicks-76ers drawing 78% over action), while sharp bettors have nudged this line down from an opener of 237, balancing the handle on the under.

In a day loaded with potential fireworks elsewhere, lock in the Warriors-Timberwolves under 235.5 at -110; the combo of elite home defense, road offensive woes, injury impacts, favorable trends, and Minneapolis' current mood sets up a game that likely hovers below 230 total points. If the line edges up to 236 or more, it only sweetens the spot, embrace the defensive slog for a solid win.

In this Big Ten rematch between the USC Trojans and Wisconsin Badgers, the total sets up for a defensive battle. Trends and stats point to a lower-scoring game, making the under 161 an appealing option for bettors.

Both teams have trended heavily toward unders this season. USC has seen the under hit in five of their last six games, thanks to a deliberate pace that limits possessions and emphasizes half-court sets. The Trojans' defensive stats shine, ranking well in opponent field goal percentage and forcing contested shots. Wisconsin mirrors this, with the under cashing in four of their last five contests. The Badgers' 7-4 over/under record leans over slightly overall, but at home, they tighten up, allowing fewer transition points and dictating a slower tempo.

Matchup-specific angles reinforce the under. In their prior meeting, the teams combined for 153 points, well below today's total. USC's road games average lower totals due to travel fatigue and unfamiliar environments, while Wisconsin's home defense has held recent opponents under 70 points multiple times. Statistically, both squads rank in the middle for offensive efficiency but excel in defensive rebounding, reducing second-chance buckets and extending possessions without scoring bursts.

This pick capitalizes on the slowed pace both teams prefer in conference play. With strong under trends and defensive stats in play, the under 161 is the smart bet here.

Big Ten action heats up in Madison as the Wisconsin Badgers host the USC Trojans. Wisconsin as a home favorite aligns with strong betting trends and statistical dominance, making the -7.5 spread a solid choice against a traveling USC squad.

Wisconsin has been unstoppable lately, winning five straight games outright while going 4-1 ATS in that span. Their home court is a fortress, where they've covered in three of their last six as favorites, leveraging a potent offense that ranks well in field goal efficiency. The Badgers' defensive stats stand out, holding opponents to low shooting percentages and forcing turnovers at a high clip—key against USC's road woes. Overall, Wisconsin's 9-8 ATS record this year improves at home, where they average comfortable margins.

USC, conversely, has faltered away from home, posting a dismal 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games despite a 14-5 straight-up record in recent outings. The Trojans' 7-10 ATS overall reflects inconsistencies in Big Ten play, where they've struggled against physical teams like Wisconsin. Statistically, USC's defense ranks middling in allowing points in the paint, an area Wisconsin exploits with their interior scoring. Head-to-head, Wisconsin dominated the last meeting 84-69, covering easily and showcasing their edge in rebounding and free-throw opportunities.

The angle here is Wisconsin's home dominance against USC's road struggles. In games where the Badgers are favored by 7-10 points, they've delivered covers thanks to their balanced attack. Lay the points with Wisconsin -7.5 for a high-confidence home play.

The Pac-12 delivers an intriguing West Coast clash as the Oregon Ducks visit the Washington Huskies in Seattle. With Oregon catching double digits, this spread presents a prime opportunity to fade a potentially overvalued home favorite, supported by key trends and stats that point to a competitive affair.

Oregon's rebounding prowess gives them a clear edge in this matchup. The Ducks rank highly in offensive rebounding rate, allowing second-chance opportunities that can keep them in games against tougher foes. Despite a 1-4 ATS mark in their last five outings, Oregon has historically performed well as underdogs, covering in situations where they're given 8 or more points due to their gritty style. Road games haven't deterred them either, with a focus on slowing the pace—the total has gone under in six of their last seven contests, indicating low-scoring, grind-it-out battles that compress spreads.

Washington, meanwhile, sports an 11-8 ATS record this season but has shown cracks at home. The Huskies are 57.9% ATS overall, yet they've failed to cover in recent spots against balanced teams like Oregon. Injuries have impacted their depth, leading to shorthanded rotations that struggle to maintain leads. Statistically, Washington's defense allows opponents to shoot efficiently from beyond the arc, an area where Oregon exploits with their perimeter game. In head-to-head trends, Oregon is 14-3 straight up in the last 17 meetings, though recent games have been decided by single digits, reinforcing the value in the points.

This pick leans on Oregon's rebounding angles and Washington's vulnerabilities. In a conference where road teams often cover inflated spreads, Oregon +9.5 or better is the way to go for bettors seeking value

In today's American Athletic Conference matchup, the Florida Atlantic Owls head to Tampa to face the South Florida Bulls. As a short road underdog, FAU offers intriguing value on the spread, backed by solid betting trends and statistical angles that highlight their resilience against stronger opponents.

Florida Atlantic has been a bettor's delight this season, posting a 13-5 record against the spread overall. This success stems from their ability to compete in tight games, particularly when given points. The Owls excel on short rest, going 8-2 ATS in games with 2-3 days off, which fits today's scenario following their midweek contest. Statistically, FAU's defense shines inside, ranking in the top tier for limiting opponents' efficiency at the rim. This could disrupt South Florida's offense, which relies heavily on interior scoring and perimeter shots—areas where the Bulls have shown vulnerability after recent hot streaks cooled off.

On the flip side, South Florida has struggled to cover as a favorite, especially when laying significant points. In games where they've been favored by 6 or more, the Bulls are just 4-5 ATS, often failing to pull away due to inconsistent shooting. While USF is 4-1 straight up in their last five games, their ATS mark dips to 2-3 over that stretch, including road struggles where they've gone 4-4 ATS. Head-to-head, FAU has covered in two of the last three meetings, adding to the angle that the Owls keep games close with their balanced attack, averaging efficient field goal percentages around 47.4% this year.

The betting angle here favors the underdog in a conference rivalry where margins are slim. South Florida's home court advantage is notable, but FAU's defensive stats and ATS trends suggest they can hang within the number. Take Florida Atlantic +5.5 for a confident play in this spot.

In the NFC Championship showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field, the total of 46.5 points presents a compelling opportunity for bettors, driven by the offensive prowess of both sides and historical patterns that favor high-scoring affairs in this round. Seattle boasts the league's third-ranked scoring offense at 28.4 points per game, fueled by efficient quarterback play and a rushing attack that piled up 2,152 yards at 4.6 yards per carry during the regular season, while the Rams counter with the NFL's second-best total offense, averaging 394.6 yards per game behind Matthew Stafford's 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns. Both teams have elevated their output in the playoffs, exceeding 29 points per game on average, with the Rams converting a league-third-best 67% of red-zone chances into touchdowns, setting the stage for sustained drives that could push the combined score well beyond the midpoint.

Their head-to-head history amplifies the case for the over, as the teams combined for 75 points in their Week 16 overtime encounter and 40 points in their earlier matchup, illustrating how familiarity in divisional battles often leads to efficient offensive executions rather than defensive stalemates. League-wide trends in NFC Championship games strongly support elevated totals, with the over cashing in 22 of 38 contests since the 1987-88 season and hitting at a 7-3 clip over the last 10 years, particularly when offenses like these rank among the league's elite. For games with totals in the 45-49.5 range, similar mid-tier lines have leaned toward the over in recent conference championships, aligning with the explosive potential here where Seattle's home offense averages strong outputs and the Rams' road attack has propelled overs in six of their last seven away games.

Weather conditions further tilt toward the over, with clear skies and temperatures in the mid-40s expected to minimize slippage and enable precise passing from Stafford and Sam Darnold, who have historically thrived in mild environments despite Seattle's top-ranked defense allowing 4,063 passing yards this season. Divisional rivalries in the playoffs have seen overs prevail at a 57% rate since 1993, especially when both squads post postseason scoring averages north of 28 points, as the Rams and Seahawks do, fostering back-and-forth scoring that echoes their regular-season fireworks. Team-specific angles reinforce this, with the over hitting in 12 of the Rams' last 19 games overall and in six of Seattle's last eight home contests, while instances where the home team covers the spread have coincided with overs in 14 of 20 conference championship games since 1993, underscoring late-game surges in must-win spots.

Ultimately, the blend of elite offensive rankings, proven head-to-head scoring, favorable weather, and entrenched betting trends makes the over 46.5 the standout wager, expecting big plays and red-zone efficiency to deliver a total that exceeds projections in this high-stakes NFC West rematch.

In the high-stakes arena of the AFC Championship, where the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots as 5.5-point underdogs, the betting landscape has shifted dramatically following Bo Nix's season-ending ankle injury in their overtime thriller against Buffalo. This marks the largest home underdog spread in a conference title game since the 1970 merger, a scenario that historically favors the Broncos' side of the ledger. League-wide trends underscore the value here: home underdogs in NFL playoff games have posted a robust 13-3 record against the spread since 2016, including a 10-6 straight-up mark that defies expectations. Zooming in on conference championships specifically, underdogs have covered at a 20-24 clip since 2003, but when the spread balloons to 4 or more points in playoff settings over the past 50 years, home teams are a perfect 9-0 ATS, often leveraging defensive grit and crowd energy to keep games closer than oddsmakers anticipate.

Delving into team-specific angles, the Broncos have been a bettor's delight as underdogs this season, going 4-0-1 against the spread overall and a flawless 2-0 at home in that role. Their offensive line, ranked among the league's elite with a top-tier pass-blocking efficiency and allowing just 1.8 sacks per game on average, could be pivotal against New England's middling run defense, which surrendered 4.3 yards per carry and ranked outside the top-10 in rushing yards allowed. This mismatch opens the door for Denver's ground game to control the clock and limit possessions for rookie sensation Drake Maye, who has thrown eight turnovers in his two playoff starts despite the Patriots' impressive 13-5-1 ATS record this year. On the flip side, New England has thrived as road favorites, covering in three of four such spots in 2025, but their victories away from home have often been nail-biters, averaging margins of just 5.5 points against non-playoff teams, suggesting vulnerability in a hostile Mile High environment where the Broncos boast an 8-1 home record.

The injury factor adds another layer of intrigue, as teams thrust into backup quarterback situations in the playoffs since 2013 have gone 11-9-1 ATS, improving to 8-4-1 when listed as underdogs. Expanding on this, historical data from 2013 to 2022 reveals that in 188 instances where a backup QB made their first start of the season immediately following a starter's injury or absence, NFL teams have demonstrated notable ATS resilience, covering at approximately a 45-48% rate overall when lines shift significantly against them (3 or more points), a sign that oddsmakers frequently overreact to the change under center. Home backups in these debut games are often overvalued by the market, leading to undervalued underdog opportunities, with road backups as underdogs posting a 50.5% ATS mark in recent seasons, while home underdog backups in touchdown-or-more spreads have hit 37.7% ATS despite dismal 10.2% straight-up wins. Jarrett Stidham, stepping in for Nix, has demonstrated poise in limited action, completing 65% of his passes in spot starts over recent seasons, and under head coach Sean Payton, who holds a 14-7 ATS mark with backups dating back to his Saints tenure, the Broncos' defense, leading the NFL in sacks and ranking top-six overall, could stifle New England's turnover-prone offense. League trends further bolster this: playoff underdogs have covered at a 60-38 pace since 2017, yielding an 18.7% ROI for bettors, a pattern amplified in divisional and conference rounds where perceived overreactions to injuries often create inflated lines. Expert consensus echoes this sentiment, with sharp money leaning toward Denver covering, as the initial line movement from Broncos as slight favorites to this 5.5-point gap appears to overcorrect for Nix's absence.

Ultimately, while the Patriots' undefeated 8-0 road record straight-up this season commands respect, their 7-1 ATS performance away includes covers against weaker foes, and facing a Broncos squad that has covered in four of five underdog spots underscores the home team's resilience. In a league where home playoff underdogs of this magnitude have historically delivered, backing Denver +5.5 offers compelling value, blending statistical edges, matchup advantages, and a proven track record of exceeding expectations in adverse scenarios.