Alex Smart Premium Picks

The Minnesota Wild have turned the Anaheim Ducks into their personal ATM, cashing in on the Pacific Division’s most generous mark with ruthless efficiency. Minnesota rides into tonight’s 8:00 PM ET clash at Xcel Energy Center having won the last five head-to-head meeting...including a 4-1 dismantling in St. Paul on October 23..and an absurd 18-1-0 ledger over the last 19 games against Anaheim dating back to January 2021. That stretch features the franchise-record 13-game winning streak from 1/20/21 to 12/21/22, a run that saw the Wild outscore the Ducks 45-19. At home, the dominance is even more lopsided: Minnesota is 9-1-0 in its last 10 at the building once branded Grand Casino Arena (since 3/22/21), pumping in 35 goals while surrendering just 24. Add the most recent home win this season and the record swells to 10-1-0 with a +14 goal differential. Filip Gustavsson owns a .915 save percentage in the series, the power play clicks at 25%, . Anaheim arrives winless in its last six road games and averaging a paltry 1.8 goals against Minnesota over the past two seasons.

Play on the Wild to win

Mississippi State rolls into Faurot Field as a 7.5-point underdog with bowl dreams dangling by a thread, and the Bulldogs have every reason to cover this number against a Missouri team still licking wounds from back-to-back home losses. Jeff Lebby’s squad has been a road warrior all season, going 5-2 ATS when the Last Train leaves Starkville and 7-1 ATS in its last eight true road games overal...covering in four of five away dates this year despite a defense that ranks 118th against the run. Freshman QB Kamario Taylor’s dual-threat spark (1,456 passing yards, 512 rushing) keeps the chains moving, and the Bulldogs’ opportunistic secondary has snagged picks in six straight games. Eli Drinkwitz’s Tigers boast the SEC’s top ground attack, but true freshman Matt Zollers in just his second start limits explosive plays, and Missouri’s offense has managed 17 points or fewer in three of its last four home tilts. State has thrived as a live dog all year, and with bowl eligibility on the line, expect Lebby’s crew to hang tough on Senior Day.

Play on Miss State to cover

The College Football Playoff committee has Utah planted at No. 13 this week, the classic “Golden Retriever” spot—tail wagging, eyes wide, waiting for someone above to drop a playoff bone. The Utes (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) roll into Waco as 8.5-point road favorites against Baylor (5-4, 3-3 Big 12), but the market might as well be handing the Bears a treat.

Utah’s road favorite allergy is well-documented: 1-9 against the spread when laying 10 or fewer on enemy turf over the last three-plus seasons, and a grim 1-7 ATS coming off back-to-back straight-up and spread wins. The Utes just steamrolled Cal Poly 63-9, so the trend alarm is blaring. Kyle Whittingham’s squad leans on a defense stiffer than any drink you’ll find in the Beehive State...12th nationally at 14.2 points per game allowed, barely yielding 300 yards per contest. They stuff the run (144.3 YPG, 66th) and choke third downs (31.5% conversion rate against, 15th). Offensively, they pound the rock for 267.1 rushing yards per game (3rd in FBS), but Baylor’s front held TCU to 88 yards two weeks ago and ranks 41st against the run.

Baylor, meanwhile, is one win from bowl eligibility and playing with house money. The Bears are 4-0 ATS this season off a straight-up conference victory, 3-1 ATS with rest over the last three years, and a profitable 14-9-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2011...including an 11-2-1 mark against teams riding an SU/ATS win (hello, Utah). Quarterback Sawyer Robertson has already eclipsed his entire 2024 stat line: 2,780 passing yards (1st in FBS), 26 touchdowns (tied for 1st), and just seven picks. He’s posted 400-yard games in back-to-back outings earlier this year and at least three scores in five of nine starts. Utah’s secondary faced one elite arm..Cam Ward..and surrendered 385 yards in a blowout loss to Miami.

These programs have met the last two seasons, both low-scoring slugfests decided by seven or fewer points: Utah 20-13 in Waco (2023) and 23-12 in Salt Lake City (2024), with Baylor covering as +7 and +10.5 dogs both times. This one feels destined for a final-drive thriller..Utah needs 200 rushing yards and to keep Robertson under 300 to cover; Baylor needs two third-down stops and one 50-yard bomb to cash. History says the home dog gets the bomb.

Play on Baylor to cover

The Cleveland Cavaliers (8-5) are set to host the struggling Memphis Grizzlies (4-9) this Saturday, November 15th, and all signs point to a decisive victory for the home team. Following a road loss to the Raptors, Cleveland gets a perfect bounce-back opportunity at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, where they are a formidable 4-2. Their identity is forged in defense, boasting a top-5 home defense that suffocates opponents, allowing just 108.2 points per game. Furthermore, the Cavs have been reliable against the spread, covering in 7 of their last 10 home games and holding a strong 6-2 ATS record this season as a double-digit favorite. Their slow, deliberate pace (slowest in the East) perfectly suits their defensive grind, setting the stage for a low-scoring, controlled affair.

The Memphis Grizzlies, meanwhile, are enduring a disastrous season start, compounded by a severe injury crisis. They arrive in Cleveland having lost three straight and are an abysmal 0-5 on the road, losing those contests by an average margin of 14.2 points. While Ja Morant is expected to play, the confirmed absence of secondary scorer Cedric Coward and numerous other key players (Jerome, Clarke) significantly depletes their already poor road offense (28th in road scoring). Crucially, the Grizzlies' 22nd-ranked defensive rebounding sets them up for a brutal night against Cleveland's dominant twin towers, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, who consistently clean up the offensive glass. This combination of factors makes Memphis uniquely vulnerable to a blowout. Note: Memphis as an underdog is 0-8 ATS L/8 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -14.6.

Given the overwhelming statistical and injury disparity, the best value lies in a conservative, lopsided Cleveland win. We project the Cavaliers' elite home defense to completely smother the Grizzlies' anemic road offense, leading to a final score in the range of Cavaliers 120, Grizzlies 105. Therefore, the official pick for this matchup is to side with the superior team and the prevailing trends. Take Cleveland -10.5 to cover the spread, extending their home dominance and exploiting the Grizzlies' road woes.

Tonight's college basketball card offers a significant value opportunity in the Big Ten/SEC Crossover clash between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Nebraska Cornhuskers. While the betting public might be focused on Nebraska's strong overall defense, the smart money is on the Over due to a critical stylistic mismatch that favors high scoring. Both teams run an extremely up-tempo offense, with Oklahoma ranking 32nd and Nebraska 38th nationally in pace, guaranteeing a high volume of possessions and, thus, more scoring opportunities. Early data supports this, as Oklahoma's games are already averaging a massive 168 total points.

This Over bet isn't just about pace; it's about exploiting a distinct defensive vulnerability for Nebraska. Although the Cornhuskers boast an elite defense overall, they have struggled immensely when faced with quicker, high-tempo opponents, surrendering 80 or more points in two of three such contests this season. Oklahoma's offense is perfectly engineered to capitalize on this flaw, ranking as a Top-20 team in fast-break points and thriving on transition scoring that immediately pressures the defense. This quick-strike ability is set to keep the pace high and the score accelerating.

Even if the game tightens up late, two key factors will push the final score well over the projected total. Firstly, the combined offensive averages of 82.5 PPG for Oklahoma and 78.2 PPG for Nebraska project a final score of 160.7 points before other factors are even considered. Secondly, in what is expected to be a close game, late-game fouling is inevitable, and Nebraska's opponents shoot a staggering 78.6% from the free-throw line. These highly efficient, late-game free throws will inflate the total and seal the Over. Bet the Oklahoma/Nebraska Over with confidence.

Play over

In a season already defined by disappointment, the 2025 edition of the Michigan State-Penn State rivalry might be the most consequential yet. Two proud programs, both 3-6 overall and 0-6 in Big Ten play, will clash Saturday at Spartan Stadium with more than the Land Grant Trophy at stake. Bowl eligibility, pride, and the faint flicker of momentum hang in the balance.

And the betting market? It’s sleeping on the home underdog.

Penn State enters as a 7-point favorite, a line that reflects reputation more than reality. The Nittany Lions were a preseason top-5 team. They’ve lost six straight—one-score heartbreak after another. Michigan State, under first-year coach Jonathan Smith, has shown resilience in defeat, particularly when cast as a heavy underdog. The numbers don’t lie: Spartans are 4-0 against the spread (ATS) as 7.5+ point underdogs this season, while Penn State is 0-5 ATS as 7.5+ point favorites.

Michigan State has covered in every game this season when installed as a touchdown or greater underdog...hanging within 10 points of Michigan (as +26), within 14 of Indiana (as +24), and within 7 of Illinois (as +10.5). They don’t win often, but they fight. And in a one-score league..where five of Penn State’s six losses have been decided by a single possession...that grit matters.

Penn State, meanwhile, has failed to cover in every game this season when favored by more than a touchdown. They beat UCLA by 16 (as -27.5), but needed a late pick-six. They beat Northwestern by 10 (as -14.5), but trailed in the fourth quarter. When expected to dominate, they stagnate.

Neither team can score. Penn State ranks 108th nationally in yards per play (4.9) over its last five games. Michigan State isn’t far behind at 102nd. But the Spartans have shown signs of life on the ground—Elijah Tau-Tolliver rushed for 127 yards on 11 carries against Minnesota two weeks ago—and get starting running back Makhi Frazier back from injury.

Penn State’s vaunted running back duo of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton? They’ve combined for just one 100-yard game in Big Ten play and are averaging under 4.0 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions have scored 20 or fewer points in four of their last five conference games.

Defensively, Michigan State ranks 4th in the Big Ten in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.6) and has forced 11 turnovers in league play. Penn State quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer has been a revelatio..throwing for 311 yards in relief against Indian..but he’s also fumbled twice and thrown three picks in limited action. One mistake in a low-scoring game could be fatal.

The Spartans don’t need to dominate...they just need to survive. Force a turnover, control the clock with Tau-Tolliver and Frazier, and let Penn State beat itself with a late fumble or stalled drive. Something they have become stellar at.

Plsy on the Michigan State

.

The key dynamics her...this matchup , at Boone Pickens Stadium screams opportunity for the Wildcats to rebound explosively. With Kansas State (4-5 overall, 3-3 Big 12) entering as 19.5-point road favorites and the total set at 50.5, the implied score from models like Data Skrive points to a 35-16 K-State win, but the motivational and historical edges suggest even more dominance.

The Cowboys (1-8 overall, 0-6 Big 12) are indeed the Big 12's punching bag this season, with their lone win coming in the opener against FCS opponent UT Martin. They've dropped eight straight since, including a humiliating 38-21 loss to Kansas last week as 24.5-point underdogs—covering but still looking utterly outmatched. This extends a brutal skid: 15 consecutive Big 12 losses dating back to last year, the longest active conference drought in FBS.

The coaching carousel adds to the chaos. Longtime head coach Mike Gundy was fired in late September after a 1-2 start, with the program citing a need for "new direction" amid roster turnover and NIL struggles. Offensive coordinator Doug Meacham has taken over as interim, but the results haven't improved—OSU ranks dead last in the Big 12 in scoring offense (15.2 points per game) and total yards (297.7 per game). Defensively, they're a sieve, allowing 38.8 points per contest (134th nationally), with particular weakness against the pass (bottom-10 in yards allowed per attempt).

Playing at home should help, but this is a demoralized squad "playing out the string," as you put it. They've covered just twice in nine games (2-7 ATS), and as +19.5 underdogs, they've gone 0-5 straight-up in similar spots this year. The psychological toll of Gundy's exit and the losing streak could lead to another no-show performance.

The Wildcats are licking their wounds from a 43-20 home thrashing by Texas Tech last week—a 23-point margin that snapped a three-game win streak and dropped them below .500. But this fits the exact profile for K-State's signature response: They're 11-1 ATS in Big 12 games following a loss of 20+ points over the past decade, often winning those bounce-backs by an average of 28 points. Examples include a 41-7 rout of Oklahoma (after a 30-point loss to Texas in 2022) and a 38-21 dismantling of TCU (post-24-point defeat to Alabama in 2023). That trend isn't random...coach Chris Klieman's teams respond with urgency, especially when bowl eligibility (needing two more wins) is on the line.

Offensively, dual-threat QB Avery Johnson is the X-factor. Through nine games, he's at 1,792 passing yards (15 TDs, 144.6 passer rating) and 255 rushing yards (5 TDs), totaling 20 scores from scrimmage. While his passing volume is down slightly from projections (averaging 224 yards per game), his efficiency shines against weak secondaries—OSU ranks 128th in pass defense EPA/play. Johnson's mobility (he's scrambled for 100+ yards in three games) will exploit the Cowboys' leaky front seven, which has allowed 4.8 yards per carry to RBs. K-State's ground game (led by DJ Giddens' 1,100+ yards) should feast too, pushing the pace and creating big-play chances through the air.

Defensively, the Wildcats aren't elite but rank top-40 in points allowed (24.2 per game) and have forced 14 turnovers. Against OSU's anemic attack (bottom-130 in success rate), expect multiple stops and potential pick-six opportunities.

This is a classic trap for the public to lay off the big road favorite, but the data screams value on K-State. The spread opened at 20.5 but dipped to 19.5 amid injury concerns (e.g., LB Austin Romaine out), yet the Wildcats are 4-5 ATS overall and 2-1 in their last three. OSU's 29-point average loss margin in their last eight defeats aligns perfectly with covering territory, and K-State's trend post-blowout loss has cashed at a 92% clip.

   Bottom line: The "motivational chasm" Ive described is real, and all signs point to a 41-14 or 38-17 type of beatdown. Lock in Kansas State -19.5 before it moves.

Play on the KState Wildcats to cover

Ole Miss thrives on tempo and big plays (4th in explosive plays), led by QB Trinidad Chambliss (2,500+ pass yds, 20+ TDs) and a balanced attack. Florida's offense sputtered last week (83 pass yds, 3 INTs from DJ Lagway vs. Kentucky), and their D allowed 38 points to a middling UK attack. Gators have 12 injuries, including WR Eugene Wilson (out); Ole Miss has just 4.

Lane Kiffin after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half is a perfect 8-0 ATS with the average ppg diff clicking in at +27.7 .

 : Rebels average 37.5 PPG but face a Gators secondary vulnerable to deep shots (59.9% opp. completion rate). Florida's run D is solid (143 rush yds allowed/game), but Ole Miss's air raid exploits that. Trend: Ole Miss 27-22-4 ATS as favorites under Kiffin.: Gators rank 104th in rushing and turn the ball over often (12 INTs from Lagway). Rebels force turnovers (+5 margin) and limit big plays. RB Jaden Baugh (683 rush yds) needs 100+ to keep it close, but Ole Miss ranks top-25 vs. rush. Ole Miss undefeated at home; Florida 0-4 on road, losing by 20+ in three. Ole Miss blew out The Citadel 49-0 (603 total yds). Florida routed 38-7 by Kentucky, their worst loss since 2021. : Florida leads series 13-12-1 but lost 38-24 last year in Gainesville (Ole Miss covered -3).

Ole Miss is primed for a statement win to lock CFP positioning. Their offense (top-5 passing) will carve up Florida's injury-riddled secondary, while the Rebels' D (top-25 scoring) suffocates a Gators attack averaging less than 23 PPG on the road. Florida's turnover issues and road futility (0-4, -25 avg margin) seal the deal.

Ole Miss to cover