Alex Smart Premium Picks

As road underdogs at +145 or better, the Vancouver Canucks present intriguing upset potential against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center, backed by strong historical and situational trends. Vancouver has thrived in this exact spot, winning four of their last five as road underdogs and posting a 12-17 record (41.4% win rate) in 29 such games this season, far outperforming expectations for a team with a middling 2.76 goals per game but a opportunistic 20.3% power play. The Canucks have dominated recent head-to-heads, going 4-2 straight up in their last six against Buffalo, including 5-1 on the road over that span, while the road team has claimed victory in seven of the last eight meetings overall. Buffalo, despite a solid 12-5 home record, has been average away (9-9) and ranks poorly in defensive metrics, allowing opponents to capitalize on their 3-2 mark in the last five games both straight up and against the spread. Elias Pettersson's resurgence adds an offensive angle for Vancouver, who allow 3.46 goals per game but boast a 73.9% penalty kill that could neutralize Buffalo's attack. Betting stats tilt further toward the underdog, with the over hitting in seven of Vancouver's recent games,. This pick leverages Vancouver's road resilience and series dominance, making +145 or better a worthwhile fade of the Sabres' home favoritism in a matchup where the Canucks' trends suggest they punch above their weight.

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Florida Panthers at Scotiabank Arena, offering solid value on the home underdog moneyline at +105 in what shapes up as a tightly contested Atlantic Division clash. Toronto's offensive firepower, led by Auston Matthews, who's tallied seven goals and five assists for 12 points in recent outings, gives them a clear edge against a Panthers squad that's sputtered lately on special teams. Florida's power play has converted just 2 of 13 opportunities in their past stretch, while goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has posted a dismal .884 save percentage over his last six starts, exposing cracks in a defense that ranks 27th in goals against per game at 3.34 and dead last in shots (31.3) and chances against per 60 minutes. Betting angles favor the Leafs here, as they've gone 13-4 to the over in their last 17 as favorites, but more crucially, my projected simulations give Toronto a 56.9% win probability despite the underdog status, buoyed by their 3.3 goals per game average and an 83.7% penalty kill rate. Florida, while boasting a slight edge in shots for (29.3 per game) and power play efficiency (18.2%), has been inconsistent on the road, and Toronto's supporting cast will need to step up without William Nylander, yet historical trends show the over hitting in eight of the Leafs' last 11 as underdogs of +201 or greater, though at +106, this line feels mispriced. With both teams allowing 3.3 goals against per game and Toronto firing just 27.1 shots on average, the moneyline play hinges on home-ice advantage and Matthews' hot streak, making this a sharp spot to back the Leafs outright in a game projected to end 4-3 in their favor according to my specific power rankings.

In tonight's late-night matchup at the SAP Center, the Columbus Blue Jackets visit the San Jose Sharks in a game ripe for offensive fireworks, making the over 6.5 goals at -125 a compelling play. Both teams have struggled defensively this season, with the Sharks allowing an average of 3.8 goals per game and the Blue Jackets not far behind at 3.4, combining for a projected 7.2 goals surrendered per contest, well above the posted total. San Jose's recent form amplifies this angle, as they've seen seven or more total goals in five consecutive games and eight of their last nine, including a streak where home games at the SAP Center average exactly 6.5 goals per outing with an 11-10 over/under split. On the Columbus side, goaltender Elvis Merzlikins is projected to start, but his shaky performance, allowing four or more goals in each of his last four appearances, doesn't inspire confidence against a Sharks offense that's found ways to contribute despite their rebuild status. Betting trends further support the over, with Columbus posting six overs in their last 10 games, including a two-game active streak, while the Sharks' leaky defense ranks near the bottom of the league in shots allowed (32.1 per game). Although the under has cashed in four straight head-to-head meetings, current team trajectories suggest a departure from that pattern, especially with Columbus holding a 19-19 over/under record overall and 9-7-4 on the road where games often trend higher-scoring. Advanced stats like expected goals against highlight vulnerabilities on both ends, positioning this as a high-value over bet in a slate full of tighter totals.

In a matchup that pits a surging Los Angeles Lakers squad against a reeling New Orleans Pelicans team, the betting landscape for this January 6, 2026, tilt at Smoothie King Center screams value on the visitors. The Lakers enter as 5-point road favorites across most books, with lines sitting at -5.5 to -6 (-110) at most major sports books, while the total hovers around 230 to 244.5 depending on the source, though sharp money has pushed it higher amid expectations of offensive fireworks. This spread feels light considering the Pelicans' dismal form, as they've dropped seven straight games, including a 106-125 blowout loss to the Miami Heat just two days ago where they committed a season-high 24 turnovers and surrendered 125 points on efficient shooting from beyond the arc. Defensively, New Orleans has been porous, allowing 120 or more points in six of those seven defeats, ranking them near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency at 118.2 points per 100 possessions over their last 10 outings.

Contrast that with the Lakers' momentum: They've rattled off back-to-back wins, including a 128-121 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies, fueled by high-output performances from LeBron James (averaging 25.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 9.1 assists this season) and Luka Doncic, whose playmaking has elevated Los Angeles to a top-10 offense at 116.8 points per game. The head-to-head history further tilts the scales, as the Lakers have dominated this series with an 8-0 straight-up streak dating back multiple seasons, including a 9-1 record over the last 10 meetings and a perfect 2-0 mark against New Orleans in 2025-26. Betting angles here are compelling, Los Angeles boasts a 10-7 against-the-spread (ATS) record on the road this year, covering in 58.8% of away games, while performing even better as heavy favorites, going 11-3 straight-up when laying -203 or more on the moneyline. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are a woeful 1-4 ATS over their last five contests and 0-5 straight-up, struggling to a 8-29 overall record that has them languishing at the bottom of the Western Conference standings.

While contrarian factors exist, some analysts like the Pelicans +5.5 at home citing potential regression for the Lakers' over streak, the overwhelming stats and trends point to Los Angeles pulling away late for a comfortable road victory. With New Orleans averaging just 102.4 points during their skid and turning the ball over at a 16.8% rate, expect the Lakers' veteran poise to shine through. This makes laying the 5.5 to 6 points a high-confidence play, especially at -110 juice, for bettors chasing value on tonight's slate.

As the college basketball season heats up in the ACC, tonight's matchup between the No. 6 Duke Blue Devils (13-1, 2-0 ACC) and the Louisville Cardinals (11-3, 1-1 ACC) at the KFC Yum! Center promises to be a gritty affair., The betting line has fluctuated, opening with Louisville as a 2.5-point favorite but shifting to Duke favored by 1.5 points amid injury concerns and recent form. The total sits at 162.5 points (-110 for both over and under), but sharp we are eyeing the under as the value play, backed by historical trends, defensive prowess, and simulation models projecting a lower-scoring game.

Duke enters this contest riding a wave of dominance, boasting an impressive 87.3 points per game on offense while holding opponents to just 65.5 points, showcasing one of the nation's stingiest defenses. Led by freshman sensation Cam Boozer, who's been hailed as the best player in the country, the Blue Devils rank in the top 20 for opposing field goal percentage, forcing teams into inefficient shooting nights. Their defensive efficiency has slipped slightly from a top-5 ranking to 16th in KenPom metrics recently, but they've compensated with strong rebounding (41.4 per game) and a zone scheme that's stifled perimeter attacks in wins over Georgia Tech and Florida State. Offensively, Duke shoots 49.8% from the field but struggles from beyond the arc at 35.4%, often leading to games that stay under the total, 9 of their 14 contests this season have hit the under. This trend is amplified in conference play, where the Blue Devils have leaned on their length and athleticism to dictate a slower pace.

On the other side, Louisville has been a high-octane offensive unit, averaging 90.4 points per game behind sharpshooter Ryan Conwell (19.6 PPG) and a strategy that launches threes on over 53% of possessions, ranking second nationally in 3-point attempt rate. They shoot 47.1% overall and 35.3% from deep, with solid rebounding at 42.4 per game and 18.5 assists highlighting their ball movement. However, the Cardinals face a setback with guard Mikel Brown Jr. sidelined, forcing Adrian Wooley (12.3 PPG in his absences) into a larger role, which could disrupt their rhythm against Duke's elite defense. Defensively, Louisville has improved but still allows opponents to find openings, though they've trended toward unders in recent outings , three of their last four games and three of their last four at home have stayed below the total. This defensive tightening comes at a crucial time, as the Cardinals look to bounce back from a loss and exploit any vulnerabilities in Duke's perimeter guarding, where opponents have shot 47% from three in spots.

Betting trends further support leaning under. Duke is just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games, reflecting some offensive inconsistencies, while Louisville is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 but has seen the under cash in key spots. The total has gone over in four of Duke's last five overall, but that's skewed by non-conference blowouts; in tighter matchups, their games dip lower. Line movement shows the total climbing from 160.5 to 162.5, potentially inflating it based on Louisville's 3-point volume, but sharp money has pushed back, recognizing the mismatch against Duke's zone. My own advanced metrics rate Louisville highly, but Duke's recent teetering, struggling to pull away as heavy favorites against Georgia Tech and Florida State, suggests a more conservative, defense-first approach on the road.

The head-to-head history is perhaps the strongest angle for the under. Duke has won the last seven meetings, but scoring has been suppressed: the last 12 games have all finished with 153 or fewer combined points, well below tonight's total. Recent examples include Duke's 73-62 win over Louisville on March 15, 2025 (total 135), a 76-65 victory on December 8, 2024 (total 141), and an 84-59 blowout on February 28, 2024 (total 143), all comfortably under 162.5. In these clashes, Duke's defensive schemes have neutralized Louisville's perimeter threats, leading to contested shots and fewer transition opportunities. Betting results show mixed over/unders in the series, but the last four have been unders or pushes on lower totals.

My power ranking stats chart, projects an average of 158 combined points, hitting the under in over 60% of scenarios. This accounts for both teams' defensive strengths, Duke's top-tier opp FG% and Louisville's home under trend, outweighing Louisville's 3-point barrage, especially with Brown out. I do have shart compandres being on the over, but citing Duke's recent perimeter lapses, the data points to a game in the low 150s, where physicality and foul trouble could further slow the pace.

In summary, the under 162.5 (-110) stands out as the best bet on the board . With Duke's lockdown defense clashing against a shorthanded Louisville offense, expect a hard-fought battle that prioritizes stops over fireworks. This pick aligns with longstanding trends, statistical edges, and historical precedents, making it a confident addition to any card.