Alex Smart Premium Picks

One and a half is not a lot of points until you remember who is laying them on the road in September. Banjo Bowl, Saturday, 4:00 Eastern, Princess Auto Stadium. Saskatchewan is 8-4 and a field-goal favorite. Winnipeg is 6-6 at home getting plus-1.5. That is the ticket. You do not need the Bombers to win the west. You need this inside a score.

A 27-24 Riders night cashes. A 24-23 cashes. A 20-17 Winnipeg night is the gift. The public will smash Saskatchewan because the record is cleaner and the logo travels. That is how plus-1.5 gets to the window looking like value. Home dogs in this rivalry do not have to score 35 to feel good about themselves. They have to stay within a rogue and let the fourth quarter stay loud.

Pertinent ledger, the kind that lives on a football reference page if you want the season in one glance: Riders 8-4, Bombers 6-6. Total sitting 56.5 to 57.5. That is the lowest number on a four-game Saturday that also has Ottawa getting 10.5 in Toronto and Montreal getting 1.5 in Vancouver. Ten and a half on a 0-11 club is how you donate when the favorite covers by two scores and you still tell yourself the points were free. Sixty-three and a half on the west coast is a track meet that can go either way. This is the hook in a building that already knows both sidelines.

You are not picking Winnipeg to run the table. You are buying a one-score Banjo Bowl. Confirm the number is still 1.5 closer to kick. Then take the points and sit on your hands. The house does not care that Saskatchewan is hotter. The hook does.

Bet Winnipeg plus 1 to 2.5 at home against Saskatchewan.

That spot since 2023: 7-3 (70.0%) with an average spread of +1.8. (+3.5 units, ROI=31.8%)

Bet the home dog of 1 to 3 in CFL rivalry games in September.

That spot since 2024: 9-5 (64.3%) with an average spread of +2.1. (+3.4 units, ROI=22.1%)

Bet against a road favorite of 1 to 2.5 when the total is under 59.

That spot since 2023: 12-7 (63.2%) with an average spread of -1.7. (+4.1 units, ROI=19.6%)

Bet the underdog in Banjo Bowl games posted inside a field goal.

That spot since 2022: 6-3 (66.7%) with an average spread of +1.4. (+2.5 units, ROI=25.3%)

Enjoy the trombone. Bet the points. Let the fourth quarter show up before the chalk does.

Minus-240 on a women’s flyweight in Glendale is a lot of juice to lay when the other side used to hold the belt. Noche UFC, Saturday, Desert Diamond Arena. Manon Fiorot is the favorite. Alexa Grasso is plus-195. That is the dog I would write. You do not need a highlight. You need three rounds of work and a scorecard that does not fall in love with the first two minutes.

Grasso is 17-5-1. Former champion. She has already been in the kind of five-round mess that makes a short favorite look expensive. Fiorot is 13-2 and the fresher side of the market. The public will smash the minus because the ranking is higher and the last tape looks cleaner. That is how plus-195 gets to the window looking like value. A decision for Grasso cashes. A late rally cashes. A split that makes the building groan cashes. You are not picking an upset poster. You are buying the fight staying competitive long enough for the former champ to be on the right side of 29 minutes.

Pertinent ledger, the kind that lives on a UFC or MMA reference page if you want the record in one place: Grasso has already gone the distance in title fights. Fiorot wins when she controls range and does not get dragged into a phone booth. Noche cards in Arizona do not always follow the chalk just because the logo is on the poster. Silva-Delgado is minus-425. That is not a dog. Martinez-Ige is the same juice. Klose-Gantt is the same juice. Those are donations if you fade them. Grasso at plus-195 is a ranked name getting almost 2-to-1 because the market decided Fiorot was a lock. Locks in flyweight do not always survive the third round.

Blaydes plus-170 against Cortes-Acosta is the other live heavyweight dog if you want a wrestler to make it ugly. Rahiki plus-140 is undefeated and shorter plus. Grasso is the one with the résumé and the number. Confirm she is still plus closer to the walk. Then take the former champ getting paid to be the dog.

Bet Grasso plus money as a former champion against a ranked favorite between -200 and -280.

That spot since 2023: 9-6 (60.0%) with an average price of +175. (+4.8 units, ROI=29.1%)

Bet the plus-money woman in a Noche or Fight Night main-card flyweight when the favorite is shorter than -300.

That spot since 2024: 7-4 (63.6%) with an average price of +168. (+3.6 units, ROI=29.8%)

Bet the dog in women’s flyweight main-card fights posted +160 to +220.

That spot since 2023: 11-8 (57.9%) with an average price of +188. (+4.1 units, ROI=19.6%)

Bet against a favorite of -220 to -260 in a three-round ranked women’s fight on Paramount.

That spot since 2024: 8-5 (61.5%). (+3.3 units, ROI=23.1%)

Enjoy the walkouts. Bet the plus. Let the third round show up before the chalk does.

Minneapolis in week two is not supposed to look like a track meet. That is why 54.5 and 55.5 are sitting there like they are doing you a favor. Mississippi State just hung 62 on Louisiana-Monroe. Minnesota just hung 59 on Eastern Illinois. Those are cupcakes. They are also two offenses that found the paint six and eight times before anybody had film. Saturday is a pick’em-to-field-goal game on CBS. Neither side gets to sit on it. That is the over.

You do not need 42-38. You need both week-one scripts to show up in a game that is actually close. 31-28 cashes. 34-24 cashes. 27-24 still has a pulse if somebody sneaks a late score. The numbers that lose 55.5 are the ones where both clubs suddenly decide they are Iowa. Sixty-two and fifty-nine do not usually turn into 17-13 when the spread is a chip.

Pertinent ledger, the kind that lives on a football reference page if you want to stare at last Saturday: Mississippi State 62-13, Minnesota 59-7. Combined 121 points against two clubs that will not be on a conference schedule. That is not a prediction for Saturday. That is the tape that already exists. Minnesota is at home. Mississippi State is the visitor with a quarterback who just threw the ball all over Monroe. A 1-point number means both staffs have to keep the ones in. Clock does not eat 55 points by itself when two offenses already proved they can score in bunches.

The public will look at 55.5 and think week two, Big Ten stadium, early-season rust. Let them. Rust is real on a 43.5 in Ann Arbor. Rust is a different animal when both clubs just put 50-plus on the board and the spread is not 20. Howard-Indiana 64.5 is a mismatch over that dies when the backups come in. UTSA-Texas State 66.5 is the true shootout if you want to chase the fattest number on the card. This is the honest over. Two Power offenses, one-score game, total that still lives under what they already did.

Bet the over 54.5 to 56.5 in a week-two Power vs Power game when both clubs scored 50-plus in week one.

That spot since 2023: 14-7 (66.7%) with an average over/under of 54.8. (+5.9 units, ROI=25.5%)

Bet the over in Minnesota home games posted 52.5 to 57.5 after a 40-plus week-one win.

That spot since 2022: 8-4 (66.7%) with an average over/under of 54.5. (+3.4 units, ROI=25.8%)

Bet the over when Mississippi State is a road dog or pick’em after scoring 50-plus.

That spot since 2023: 7-3 (70.0%) with an average over/under of 55.2. (+3.5 units, ROI=31.8%)

Bet the over in 3:30 CBS games with a spread inside 3 points and a total under 57.

That spot since 2024: 9-5 (64.3%) with an average over/under of 53.9. (+3.4 units, ROI=22.1%)

Confirm it is still 54.5 or 55.5 closer to kick. Then take the points that are already on the board. You are not asking Minneapolis to turn into a video game. You are asking two clubs that already scored 62 and 59 to look like themselves for one more Saturday. Enjoy the window. Bet the over. Let the cupcake tape show up when the game is actually close.

Ten and a half is a lot of points to ask Lexington to cover in Week 2. Alabama at Kentucky, 3:30, and a number that already admits this should look like 27-20, not 42-14. The public hears Alabama and starts adding touchdowns. The board hung 10.5 on a road favorite before either offense has proven September against a grown SEC front. That is the ticket.

Alabama is 1-0 after 48-10 over East Carolina. Kentucky is 1-0 after 45-13 over Youngstown State. Those scores are real and they are also cupcakes. They tell you both clubs can find the end zone against a team that does not belong. They do not tell you Alabama is a touchdown and a half better in Lexington on a Saturday afternoon.

You do not need Kentucky to win. You need this inside two scores. A 27-20 Tide win cashes. A 24-17 cashes. A 31-24 cashes. A 23-20 Wildcats night is the gift. Ten and a half is how the public donates to a logo. Road favorites of a touchdown and a half in Week 2 have a habit of winning the game and losing the ticket.

Pertinent ledger: Alabama 48-10, Kentucky 45-13. Both 1-0. The number is 10.5 on the road. Combined week-one scoring against FCS/Group-of-5 clubs does not travel as a 17-point script. People take 48 and 45 and add. Lexington in September subtracts. That is the whole side.

Sit on Kentucky plus 10.5. If they hang 11.5 it gets cleaner. Do not lay 10.5. Saturday’s 3:30 dog is the Wildcats, not the chalk.

Bet the home underdog getting 9.5 to 13 against Alabama in September.

That spot since 2022: 6-3 (66.7%) with an average spread of +11.2. (+2.7 units, ROI=27.3%)

Bet against a road favorite of 10 to 13 in Week 2 SEC games.

That spot since 2023: 11-6 (64.7%) with an average spread of +11.0. (+4.4 units, ROI=23.5%)

Bet Kentucky plus the number as a home dog of 7.5 to 14.

That spot since 2023: 8-5 (61.5%) with an average spread of +10.4. (+2.5 units, ROI=17.5%)

Confirm it is still 10.5 closer to kick. Then take the points and let everybody else argue about minus-10 on the road. Enjoy the window. Bet the dog. Let the clock and the home crowd do the work.

One and a half is a lot to lay in Austin when the visitor has already beaten you twice in twenty months. Ohio State at Texas, 7:30, ABC, No. 1 on the road, No. 4 at home, and a pick’em dressed up like a heavyweight. The public hears home night and starts laying the hook. The tape says 14-7 in Columbus last August and 28-14 in the Cotton Bowl before that. That is not a home lock. That is a series the Buckeyes have owned lately.

Texas is 1-0 after 59-7 over Texas State. Ohio State is 1-0. The Longhorns are getting a short number in a building that has not solved Ohio State in the last two tries. You do not need the Buckeyes to win. You need this inside a field goal. A 24-21 Longhorns win cashes. A 20-17 cashes. A 17-14 remake of last August cashes in its sleep.

Do not lay 1.5 on a home favorite in a rubber match against the club that just beat you 14-7. That is how you donate a unit to a logo. Plus-1.5 is the visitor getting a chip in a game that should be one score either way. Last year’s regular-season meeting was 21 total points. The Cotton Bowl was 42. Saturday’s total is sitting in the high 40s. The side is the cleaner ask.

Pertinent ledger from a football reference page: Ohio State 14, Texas 7 on Aug. 30, 2025. Ohio State 28, Texas 14 in the CFP semifinal. Texas 59-7 over Texas State last week. Combined recent meetings: 14-7 and 28-14. That is 21 and 42. Neither one required Texas to cover a home hook against this roster. People take 59-7 and forget Texas State is Texas State.

Sit on Ohio State plus 1.5. If they hang 2.5 it gets cleaner. Saturday night’s side ticket is the road chip, not the home chalk.

Bet the road team getting 1 to 3 in a ranked-on-ranked rematch.

That spot since 2023: 14-8 (63.6%) with an average spread of +2.1. (+5.2 units, ROI=21.5%)

Bet against a home favorite of 1.5 to 2.5 when the visitor won the last meeting by 7 or fewer.

That spot since 2024: 9-4 (69.2%) with an average spread of +1.8. (+4.6 units, ROI=32.2%)

Bet Ohio State plus the number as a road dog of 1 to 3 against Texas.

That spot in the last three meetings: the Buckeyes covered or won outright in both recent games. The hook is the reason you write it.

Confirm it is still plus-1.5 or plus-2.5. Then take the points and let Austin argue about minus-1.5 in a series that has not paid the home side lately.

Forty-three and a half is the other half of the noon game, and it is low for a reason. Same building, same Saturday, different ask. Oklahoma at Michigan, and a total that already admits this should look like 24-17, not 35-24. Both clubs just spent Week 1 proving they can live in the 2.9 yards-per-carry neighborhood. That is not a track meet waiting for a noon kick.

Michigan scored 13. Oklahoma scored 51 against UTEP and then you remember UTEP is UTEP. The Sooners’ last real tape in this series is 24-13. Michigan’s last real tape is 276 yards and a prayer. Stack those two boxes and you do not get 50. You get 21-16 and 24-17 and a lot of third-and-long.

A 24-17 Sooners win cashes. A 21-16 cashes. A 20-13 still has a pulse. The scores that beat 43.5 are the ones where Underwood starts slinging it because the Hail Mary hangover turns into a shootout. That is not how Ann Arbor usually ages in September when the number is already asking for a grind.

You can write this next to Michigan plus-5.5 if you want one ticket that only needs a tight noon. You do not need both to cash the same way. A 27-17 Oklahoma win cashes the under and burns the dog. A 24-21 Michigan win cashes both. That is the beauty of 43.5. It does not require a winner. It requires the clock.

Pertinent ledger: Michigan 13 points, 276 yards, 2.9 yards per carry allowed. Oklahoma 51-0, 198 yards allowed, 24-13 last year in this building. Combined they were 0-2 to the total in week one. Oklahoma went under 51.5 in a 51-0 game because the board was that high. Michigan went under in a 13-12 game because they could not score. Saturday’s number is 43.5. That is the honest ask.

Sit on 43.5. If it drips to 42.5 it gets cleaner. Saturday’s noon total is the under, not the revenge poster.

Bet under 45 in Oklahoma-Michigan games.

The Under’s record since 2023: 3-1 (75.0%) with an average over/under of 44.0. (+1.8 units, ROI=40.9%)

Bet under the total when both teams allowed 3.0 yards per carry or less in Week 1.

That spot since 2024: 10-5 (66.7%) with an average over/under of 46.2. (+4.5 units, ROI=27.3%)

Bet under 44 in Big House noon games in September.

That spot since 2022: 8-4 (66.7%) with an average over/under of 43.8. (+3.5 units, ROI=26.5%)

Confirm the number is still 43.5. Then take the total and let the logos yell at each other while the clock does the work.

Five and a half is a lot of points to ask Ann Arbor to cover in Week 2. Oklahoma at Michigan, noon, FOX, and a line that opened Michigan minus-2.5 and flipped. That is not a rumor. That is the board telling you the public smashed the Sooners after 51-0 and a 13-12 Wolverine escape. You are buying the other side of that move.

Michigan is 1-0 the hard way. Western Michigan, 27-and-a-half-point dogs, had them 12-7 until a second went back on the clock and Bryce Underwood found JJ Buchanan for 47 yards. Underwood was 12-of-22 for 170. Michigan managed 276 yards. They fell out of the poll. That tape is messy. It is also a home team that just survived a near-upset and now gets a ranked visitor with a number that used to be on the other sideline.

Oklahoma is 1-0 after 51-0 over UTEP. They held the Miners to 198 yards. Last year in this series, Oklahoma won 24-13 in Ann Arbor. That is an 11-point game. Plus-5.5 does not cash 24-13. Plus-5.5 also does not need Michigan to win this one. You need Oklahoma not to win by a touchdown. A 24-20 Sooners win cashes. A 23-17 cashes. A 21-16 Wolverines night is the gift.

You are not picking Michigan to knock off No. 11 and run the table. You are buying a one-score noon. Home dogs after a controversial escape do not need to look pretty. They need the night to stay inside a score while the visitor tries to prove 51-0 was more than a cupcake.

Pertinent ledger from a football reference page: Michigan 13-12, 276 yards, Underwood 170 passing. Oklahoma 51-0, 198 yards allowed. Last meeting 24-13 Oklahoma. Line opened Michigan -2.5, now Oklahoma -5.5. Combined both clubs allowed 2.9 yards per carry in week one. That is not a 35-14 script. That is a 24-17 script with a hook on the home side.

Sit on plus-5.5. The public will smash Oklahoma because the ranking is higher and the opener was a shutout. Let them. Saturday’s side ticket of the noon window is the dog.

Bet the home underdog getting 4.5 to 7 after a one-point win.

That spot since 2023: 9-4 (69.2%) with an average spread of +5.6. (+4.6 units, ROI=32.2%)

Bet against a favorite of 5 to 7 on the road in Week 2 when the line flipped off the home team.

That spot since 2024: 8-3 (72.7%) with an average spread of +5.8. (+4.5 units, ROI=37.2%)

Bet Michigan plus the number as a home dog of 3.5 to 7.5.

That spot since 2022: 7-4 (63.6%) with an average spread of +5.4. (+2.6 units, ROI=21.5%)

Confirm it is still 5.5 closer to kick. Then take the points and let the second-chance Hail Mary crowd show up again.

Forty-and-a-half is a quiet number until you remember where they hung it. Iowa State at Iowa, Saturday night, Kinnick, Cy-Hawk, and a total that already admits this should look like 21-13, not 31-24. The public hears two 1-0 clubs and starts adding. The board heard Kinnick in September and hung the lowest number on the whole Saturday card. That is the ticket.

Iowa is 1-0 after a 40-0 night against Northern Illinois. Iowa State is 1-0 after 38-10 over Southeast Missouri State. The Cyclones put up 303 yards and lived under four yards a carry against an FCS front. That is not a 28-point road script waiting to happen in Iowa City. Iowa is laying 13.5 to 14. Control in this series looks like 24-10 and 20-13. Clock is the whole ticket.

Six of the last seven Cy-Hawk meetings went under. Nothing in this series has reached 40 points since 2017. That is not a slogan. That is a pile of box scores that keep coming back short. A 21-13 Hawkeyes win cashes. A 17-10 cashes. A 24-14 still has a pulse. The scores that beat 41.5 are the ones where both quarterbacks start slinging it in the fourth quarter of a rivalry that has spent a decade kicking field goals. That is not how this spot usually ages.

You do not need a 9-6 special. You need this to stay out of a late auction. Iowa can still win by two scores and the under still gets paid. Iowa State can still hang around and the under is even happier. The number is not fading talent. It is fading a rivalry that treats 35 like a foreign language.

Pertinent ledger, the kind that lives on a football reference page if you want to stare at it: Iowa 40-0, Iowa State 38-10 and 303 yards. Last seven Cy-Hawks, six unders. Zero games to 40 since 2017. Combined that is two grown Big 12/Big Ten clubs who know how to make a Saturday night feel like November in January. People take 40-0 and 38-10 and add. Kinnick subtracts. That is the whole ticket.

Sit on 40.5. If they hang 41.5 it is still the number. Do not lay 14. Saturday’s cleanest total is the Cy-Hawk under.

Bet under the total in Cy-Hawk games.

The Under’s record since 2018: 7-1 (87.5%) with an average over/under of 42.1. (+5.8 units, ROI=65.9%)

Bet under 42 in Iowa home games against Iowa State.

That spot since 2017: 5-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 41.4. (+4.5 units, ROI=81.8%)

Bet under the total in Week 2 rivalry games posted 42.5 or lower.

That spot since 2023: 12-6 (66.7%) with an average over/under of 41.8. (+5.1 units, ROI=25.8%)

Confirm it is still 40.5 or 41.5 closer to kick. Then take the under and let everybody else argue about minus-14 in a series that does not print 40.