Alex Smart Premium Picks

In the NBA landscape on February 21, 2026, the San Antonio Spurs stand out as a dominant force against the struggling Sacramento Kings, offering a compelling spread opportunity at -18, with the game tipping off at 8:00 PM ET in Austin. The Spurs, boasting a 39-16 record overall and a stellar 20-6 mark at home, ride into this matchup on a scorching seven-game winning streak, during which they've showcased elite efficiency on both ends of the floor, averaging 119.6 points while holding opponents to just 108.6 points per contest in their last 10 outings. San Antonio's defensive prowess, ranked among the league's best by allowing only 111.8 points per game this season, pairs seamlessly with their rebounding edge at 46.6 boards per night, creating mismatches against weaker foes like the Kings, who have plummeted to a dismal 12-45 record and sit dead last in the Western Conference. Sacramento, mired in a 10-game losing skid, has faltered offensively at 109.9 points per game while surrendering a league-worst 120.8 points defensively, highlighting their vulnerability on the road where they've dropped eight of their last 10 straight-up, often by double-digit margins against top-tier teams.

Betting trends further tilt the scales toward the Spurs covering this generous spread, as San Antonio has gone a perfect 7-0 against the spread in their last seven games, capitalizing on home-court advantages with blowout victories that average over 20 points in similar setups against sub-.500 opponents, while historical data ,since 1995, shows NBA teams favored by exactly 18 points have compiled an 8-5-0 record against the spread across 13 total games, translating to a 61.5 percent cover rate with a positive ATS margin, while their straight-up performance stands at near-perfect levels consistent with broader trends for large favorites, winning approximately 92-100 percent of such matchups with an average SU margin around +18 to +20 points, though small sample sizes underscore the variability where garbage-time plays or relaxed efforts can influence outcomes. This data highlights how extreme favorites at the -18 line often perform better ATS than slightly lower spreads like -17, which dips to just 29.7 percent covers, but bettors should note the limited instances, as these massive lines are rare and typically occur in pronounced mismatches involving elite teams against struggling opponents, with home favorites in this range boosting overall ATS success to around 58-60 percent when factoring in venue advantages. For context within the 15-20 point favorite bracket since 1995, the aggregated ATS rate hovers at 53.5 percent over about 480 games, with SU dominance at 96.3 percent, yet the -18 specific subset suggests value in true blowout scenarios where motivation remains high, avoiding the pitfalls of backdoor covers that plague mid-teens spreads though the Spurs' motivation for the top seed and the Kings' consistent blowout losses make this a spot where San Antonio could exceed expectations. The Kings, conversely, have covered just twice in their last eight contests overall, including a poor 2-5 against the spread in recent road tilts, where their turnover-prone play and lackluster shooting at 46 percent from the field get exposed by disciplined defenses like San Antonio's, which forces 7.7 steals and 5.2 blocks per game. Angles to consider include the Spurs' post-All-Star surge, fueled by balanced scoring from multiple contributors and a rebounding differential that overwhelms Sacramento's undersized frontcourt, which grabs only 41.4 rebounds nightly, setting up second-chance opportunities that could balloon the final margin. Historically, in head-to-head clashes this season, San Antonio already notched a 123-110 win over the Kings, covering comfortably while dominating the paint and transition, trends that suggest another lopsided affair as the Spurs push for the Western Conference's top seed.

Lay it

UFC returns to Houston for an electrifying Fight Night card at the Toyota Center, featuring a middleweight showdown in the main event, bettors are eyeing value in underdogs and props that highlight stylistic mismatches, with the main card kicking off at 8:00 PM Eastern Standard Time. In the welterweight co-main event, Uros Medic steps up as a +170 underdog against Geoff Neal, a matchup where Medic's explosive striking power could exploit Neal's recent vulnerabilities, considering Neal has suffered five losses in his last eight outings, including a first-round knockout in his most recent fight, while absorbing 5.48 significant strikes per minute with only a 57% striking defense. Medic, on the other hand, boasts a 100% finish rate across his career, landing 5.53 significant strikes per minute at 60% accuracy, and he's riding a wave of back-to-back first-round knockouts, which aligns with a betting trend favoring younger, high-output strikers against fading veterans like Neal, who at 35 years old has shown diminished durability in prolonged exchanges. This angle makes Medic a compelling upset pick, especially in a division where underdogs with superior speed and power have cashed at a 42% clip in similar veteran-vs-prospect scenarios over the past two years, potentially leading to a quick stoppage

Capping the night in the main event around 10:30 PM Eastern Standard Time, Anthony Hernandez emerges as the -240 favorite against Sean Strickland, with the by-decision prop at +125 providing an intriguing angle that plays into Hernandez's wrestling dominance and cardio edge over five rounds. Hernandez averages 6.46 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy, coupled with 1.8 submission attempts in the same span, allowing him to control fights on the mat while landing 4.59 significant strikes per minute at 62% efficiency, and he's on an eight-fight win streak that includes grinding out decisions against durable opponents. Strickland, despite his high-volume striking at 5.95 per minute, absorbs 4.57 strikes with a 60% defense and has gone 1-2 in his last three, including a unanimous decision loss in a rematch, highlighting a trend where volume boxers like him struggle against elite grapplers, with such matchups going the distance in 58% of instances when the wrestler maintains top control without a finish. Hernandez's 68% takedown defense further neutralizes Strickland's modest 0.73 takedowns per 15 minutes, tilting the scales toward a judges' verdict in a bout that rewards bettors fading the former champion's durability against relentless pressure.

Hernandez to win / plus prop- contest goes to a decision

As the 2026 MLS season ignites on February 21, with a thrilling array of opening fixtures including Vancouver Whitecaps hosting Real Salt Lake, Austin FC clashing with Minnesota United, Orlando City taking on New York Red Bulls, and the headline-grabbing encounter between LAFC and Inter Miami, sharp bettors hunting for a prime selection can lock in on the over 3 goals option in that LAFC-Inter Miami matchup at -190, a choice grounded in attacking firepower, past scoring habits, and early-season tendencies that point to a goal fest. Inter Miami's road offense averaged 2.1 goals per outing last year, driven by Lionel Messi's creativity, distribution, while LAFC's home attack tallied 1.8 on average, now elevated by Son Heung-Min's pace, clinical strikes, fostering a scenario of aggressive, transitional play, as seen in their five previous clashes averaging 2.4 goals, with 40 percent crossing the 2.5 mark, further boosted by opening-weekend patterns where 65 percent of high-profile MLS games have gone over that line in the last five seasons, thanks to initial rust, bold strategies, crowd energy. On the defensive side, LAFC leaked goals in 70 percent of home games during 2025, Inter Miami surrendered scores in 80 percent of away contests, opening doors for breakthroughs, particularly in a night game where jet lag, excitement can erode organization, mirroring broader league data with 55 percent of first-round matches hitting overs from unrefined backlines, eager forwards. Though tempting alternatives exist, such as Vancouver's strong home record with 75 percent wins in season openers, or Minnesota's 40 percent upset rate as underdogs in cross-conference starters, this over combines elite talent, proven output, recurring themes, positioning it as the standout play for today's slate, amid potential shifts in odds, updates on lineups.

As the 2026 MLS season launches into gear on February 21, with Vancouver Whitecaps hosting Real Salt Lake in a Western Conference opener at BC Place, set to kick off , bettors chasing a solid home favorite can target the Whitecaps moneyline at -175, a wager supported by dominant trends, strategic angles, historical dominance in this matchup, underscoring Vancouver's edge in early-season home clashes. Last year's campaign saw the Whitecaps finish as MLS Cup runners-up, boasting the league's top goal differential at plus-28, including a stingy defense that posted clean sheets in 45 percent of home games, while dismantling Real Salt Lake in both 2025 encounters by a combined 4-1 scoreline, highlighting their ability to control possession, exploit transitions, especially against teams with road vulnerabilities. Home opener stats favor Vancouver heavily, with a 75 percent win rate in BC Place season starters over the past decade, fueled by crowd energy, tactical familiarity, additions like Thomas Muller's midfield orchestration, contrasting Real Salt Lake's dismal 35 percent away victory clip in 2025, where they struggled against elite Western foes, often conceding early, leaking multiple goals in 55 percent of road losses. Betting angles here lean on seasonal patterns, as defending conference finalists like Vancouver have won 68 percent of their opening home games in recent years, capitalizing on preseason momentum, roster continuity, while underdogs like RSL have faltered in 60 percent of cross-altitude trips to the Pacific Northwest, battling fatigue, altitude adjustments, defensive breakdowns under pressure. Deeper dives reveal Vancouver's offensive surge late in 2025, netting 2.2 goals per home outing in the final stretch, paired with RSL's tendency to drop points in low-possession scenarios, where they won just 25 percent of games when holding under 45 percent of the ball, setting up a prime spot for the hosts to dictate terms, build leads through set pieces, counterattacks. Savvy plays also consider broader league trends, with opening weekends seeing home teams triumph in 62 percent of matches over the last five seasons, driven by fresh motivation, tactical tweaks, particularly in cooler climates like Vancouver's, where RSL has managed only one win in their last six visits, often ending in narrow defeats, one-goal margins. While no outcome is certain, this selection merges proven home strength, head-to-head superiority, recurring statistical edges, offering a confident foundation for today's betting action, amid monitoring for lineup tweaks, weather influences on the turf.

In the competitive landscape of Big East college basketball, where underdogs often rise to challenge dominant favorites, the Creighton Bluejays emerge as a compelling pick against the spread when facing the St. John's Red Storm on February 21, 2026, particularly with Creighton catching +12.5 points in this road matchup. Fresh off a stunning 91-84 victory over top-ranked UConn as 15.5-point underdogs, the Bluejays demonstrated their resilience, leveraging sharp perimeter shooting and efficient free-throw opportunities to outpace a formidable opponent, while key contributors like Josh Dix poured in 21 points to fuel the upset. This momentum carries into their rematch with St. John's, a team riding a 12-game winning streak that includes a dominant 90-73 win over Creighton earlier in the season, yet the Red Storm have shown vulnerabilities in covering large spreads, posting just a 5-6 record against the spread when favored by 12.5 points or more this year.
Digging into the stats, Creighton averages 76.6 points per game on 46 percent shooting from the field, while grabbing 35.2 rebounds and dishing out 15.6 assists, numbers that highlight their balanced attack, even as they force only 9.5 turnovers defensively but draw an impressive 16.3 fouls per contest to create scoring chances at the line. On the flip side, St. John's boasts a potent offense at 84 points per outing with 38.8 rebounds and 16 assists, backed by a defense that forces 14.2 turnovers and holds opponents to 42.4 percent shooting, but their 17.8 fouls committed could play into Creighton's hands, especially given the Bluejays' 75.2 percent free-throw accuracy. Historically, these teams have produced tight contests, with Creighton holding a 1-4 straight-up record in the last five meetings, yet going 1-4-1 against the spread in the past six, suggesting value in backing the underdog when the line swells to double digits.
From a betting angle, power conference squads like Creighton, who dropped the first matchup and now enter as double-digit road underdogs, have thrived against the spread, boasting a 96-72 record in such spots over recent seasons for a 57.1 percent success rate, as favorites often overlook late-season rematches against familiar foes. Moreover, St. John's, despite their 5-0 straight-up run in the last five games, has managed only a 3-2 mark against the spread during that stretch, indicating a tendency to win but not always dominate by the margins oddsmakers expect, particularly at home where they've gone 7-4 against the spread in road games wait no, in their overall home performance trends. Creighton's road woes include a 1-4 against-the-spread clip in their last five away games, but their perfect 1-0 record as a 12.5-point or greater underdog this season adds another layer of intrigue, pointing to their ability to hang tough in lopsided setups.
Considering the broader trends in college hoops rematches, where revenge motives clash with fatigue from winning streaks, this game aligns with patterns favoring big underdogs to keep things closer than anticipated, especially when the visiting team boasts an efficient offense capable of exploiting defensive lapses, such as St. John's allowance of 35.6 percent from beyond the arc. With Creighton's overall 9-18 against-the-spread record this year contrasting their upset potential, and St. John's 15-9-1 mark showing solid but not impenetrable covering habits, the angle here leans toward the Bluejays staying within the number, capitalizing on free throws and timely shooting to frustrate a Red Storm squad that commits turnovers at a clip of 10.8 per game. In a conference known for high-stakes battles, this underdog play stands out as today's top value, blending recent form, statistical edges, and proven betting trends into a persuasive case for backing Creighton to cover

In today's loaded college basketball schedule, the neutral-site clash between top-ranked Michigan and third-ranked Duke at Capital One Arena emerges as a standout betting opportunity, drawing sharp attention for its implications on national title odds, with the Wolverines installed as 2.5-point favorites, reflecting their offensive dominance against a Blue Devils squad known for stifling defense. Michigan enters with a scorching 25-1 record, riding an 11-game winning streak, highlighted by their explosive scoring average of 90.6 points per contest, ranking fourth in the nation, while converting 51.4 percent of field goals, also fourth overall, and grabbing 41.5 rebounds per game to control possession battles. The Wolverines have shown remarkable consistency in February, going 7-0 straight up in their last seven games during the month, and they thrive on Saturdays, posting a 10-1 straight-up mark in their previous 11 such outings, underscoring their ability to perform under weekend spotlight pressure.

Duke counters with a formidable 24-2 ledger, bolstered by an elite defense that surrenders just 63.2 points per game, placing them among the top units nationally, while limiting opponents to low shooting percentages inside the arc, where they rank second in holding teams to 43 percent on two-point attempts. The Blue Devils excel in effective field goal percentage at 57.8 percent, ranking 13th, and they dominate the offensive glass with a 36.8 percent rebounding rate, good for 21st in the country, allowing second-chance opportunities that have fueled wins over quality foes like Kansas, Arkansas, and Florida. However, Duke has displayed some vulnerabilities in neutral or road settings, going 6-3 against the spread in away games, but they've struggled in recent high-stakes spots, dropping close decisions to Texas Tech and North Carolina by a combined four points, hinting at potential cracks against elite offenses.

From a betting trends perspective, Michigan has been a reliable cover option lately, posting a 5-1 record against the spread in their last six games, while the over has hit in four of their previous six contests, aligning with their high-octane style that pushes totals upward against defenses unaccustomed to such pace. Historically against Duke, the Wolverines face a tough angle, holding a 3-8 mark against the spread in the last 11 meetings and a dismal 1-10 straight-up record over that span, yet their current form flips the script, as they've covered in four of their last six against Atlantic Coast Conference opponents, suggesting improved adaptability to physical, athletic matchups. Duke, meanwhile, has trended under in 17 of 23 games this season, a nod to their defensive prowess, but they've gone just 1-4 against the spread in their last five outings, indicating fading momentum as underdogs in marquee games.

Key angles tilt toward Michigan's favor here, including their superior rebounding margin of plus-8.2 overall, which could neutralize Duke's offensive board strength, especially with elite rim protector Aday Mara anchoring the paint against threats like Cameron Boozer. The Wolverines also boast an undefeated road record this season, thriving in unfamiliar arenas where scoring can dip due to adjusted shooting backdrops, yet their 36.1 percent three-point shooting keeps defenses honest, creating driving lanes for guards like Trey Donaldson to exploit mismatches. Duke's reliance on perimeter efficiency faces a test against Michigan's defense, which ranks highly in contesting shots, and while the Blue Devils have won the last three head-to-heads, this neutral environment levels the playing field, favoring the more balanced Wolverines squad.

Considering these stats and trends, the value lies with Michigan covering the 2.5-point spread, as their offensive firepower, combined with recent ATS success and February dominance, positions them to edge out Duke in a tightly contested battle, making this the premier side bet on a Saturday slate filled with intriguing options like Houston against Arizona or St. John's versus Creighton..

In a clash of contrasting styles, the No. 4 Arizona Wildcats face the No. 2 Houston Cougars, showcasing Arizona's potent offense against Houston's elite defense, with the total set around 141.5 points. Arizona averages 88.2 points per game, ranking 13th nationally, but they struggle on the road, often dipping below their season average, while Houston allows just 61.6 points per contest, holding the second-best scoring defense in the country. Betting trends favor the under here, as Houston has gone under in five of their last six matchups, and in eight of their last 12 games overall, emphasizing their ability to control tempo and force low-scoring affairs. The Cougars rank top-three in defensive efficiency, limiting opponents to 46.4% effective field goal percentage, and they excel at home, where they've won 18 straight, often keeping games in the 60s for the opposition. Arizona's perimeter attack, led by players averaging over 13 points and nearly five assists, may find it tough against Houston's suffocating pressure, which forces turnovers and disrupts rhythm, leading to unders in 11 of 15 recent defensive stands. Public betting leans toward the under at 68%, reflecting awareness of Houston's 8-4 under trend in similar spots, and with both teams playing deliberate styles in big games, this matchup angles toward a grind-it-out battle under the total

The No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones travel to face the BYU Cougars, in a Big 12 showdown where defensive prowess could keep the total under 155.5 points. Iowa State holds opponents under 70 points in conference play, ranking 11th nationally in points allowed at 64.6 per game, while forcing 15.1 turnovers per contest, disrupting offensive flows and leading to unders in 21 of their 31 games this season. BYU's home games average around 148 total points, with the Cougars conceding 74.5 points overall, but they tighten up against strong defenses, going under in six of their last seven February contests. Betting angles highlight Iowa State's 7-3 record in their last 10, yet they've hit the under in four of five recent games, thanks to a 41.6% opponent field goal percentage and strong rebounding that limits second chances. The Cyclones' road under streak stands at 11 of 12, particularly when facing teams with solid three-point defense like BYU, which allows 33.3% from beyond the arc. Public consensus sits at 61% on the under, aligning with trends where Big 12 rematches involving top defenses often fall short of high totals, making this a prime spot for a lower-scoring affair dominated by physical play and contested shots

Creighton Bluejays take on the No. 17 St. John's Red Storm, in a Big East battle ripe for points, with the total hovering near 153.5. Both teams rank in the top 50 for tempo, pushing the pace and leading to overs in seven of Creighton's 10 road games, while St. John's has exceeded the total in 14 of 18 home contests. St. John's averages 84 points per game, bolstered by 38.8 rebounds and 16 assists, creating second-chance opportunities and fast breaks that inflate scores, especially against Creighton's defense allowing 75.5 points. Betting trends show the over hitting in nine of Creighton's last 12 overall, and in four of six road games against St. John's, where combined shooting reaches 46% from the field. The Red Storm's 5-0 straight-up run in their last five includes three overs against the spread, reflecting their offensive efficiency and ability to exploit mismatches, while Creighton's 76.6 points per game add fuel to high-scoring affairs. With 72% public support for the over, and recent head-to-heads averaging 162 points, this angles as a shootout driven by quick transitions, perimeter shooting, and minimal defensive stops in a lively home environment

The Kentucky Wildcats visit the Auburn Tigers, setting up an SEC offensive showcase with the total around 156.5 points. Auburn ranks 14-4 to the over this season, averaging high-scoring outputs thanks to their 80-plus pace in recent wins, while Kentucky pours in 88 points per game, leading to overs in four of their last five. SEC games frequently eclipse totals, with Auburn's 15-11 over/under record highlighting their 46% field goal shooting and 38 rebounds per contest, creating extra possessions against Kentucky's defense allowing over 70 points. Betting angles favor the over in nine of Kentucky's last 13 road games, and in head-to-heads where both teams combine for efficient scoring, often exceeding 160 points in past meetings. The Tigers' home dominance, with 9-3 straight-up in recent games, includes overs when facing up-tempo offenses like Kentucky's, which commits few turnovers and shoots well from deep. Public betting at 68% on the over aligns with trends where rematches in this conference turn into track meets, emphasizing fast breaks, three-pointers, and aggressive fouling that push scores higher.

Top-ranked Michigan Wolverines battle the No. 3 Duke Blue Devils, in a marquee matchup where offensive firepower suggests going over 150.5 points. Michigan averages 85 points, with a perfect 10-0 straight-up in their last 10, often exceeding totals in high-profile games, while Duke scores 82 per contest, leading to overs in four of their last six. Betting trends show Michigan's over in four of six recent games, bolstered by their 5-1 against the spread run, and Duke's 6-17 over/under leans toward higher scores against ranked foes, where they've gone over in key wins. The Wolverines' road success, unbeaten away this season, features efficient shooting and assists that exploit defenses like Duke's, which allows points in transition despite strong overall play. Past encounters between these programs often hit the over, with combined tempos pushing possessions, and public consensus at 72% supports this, reflecting angles where elite offenses clash in neutral-site thrillers filled with dunks, threes, and foul-line visits.