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NBA’s has a nine-game Wednesday slate but the Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers over 234.5 (-110), a number that looks at least five points too low when you dig into the pace and firepower on display. The Rockets enter Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse leading the entire league in offensive rating (124.8 per 100 possessions) and scoring 118.2 points per game while playing at a top-10 tempo. They’ve cashed the over in 10 of their 12 games this season, including eight of their last ten on the road (+15.70 units ROI), largely because their normally stingy defense softens away from Toyota Center (opponents averaging 115+ points over the last five road contests). Cleveland counters with the NBA’s third-fastest pace and a home defense that has surrendered 113.0 points per 100 possessions, and the Cavs themselves are scoring at a 117.1 offensive rating clip. With Donovan Mitchell and Alperen Şengün both probable and no significant injuries on either side, this has all the makings of a track meet. My advanced metrics project 237-240 combined points at a 60%+ hit rate, and the total has gone over in 30 of Houston’s last 43 road games. In a slate full of inflated totals elsewhere (Portland-Chicago 242.5, for example), 233.5 stands out as the clear misprice. Take the over and watch two top-15 offenses run past a sleepy number.

Play over

The Washington Capitals welcome the Edmonton Oilers to Capital One Arena tonight in what looks like one of the sharper betting spots on a light Wednesday slate. Washington opened as a modest -115 home favorite , and the market has barely budged despite some late money trickling in on the Caps. That’s telling, because the situational and analytical edges all point  toward the home side.

 .Washington is 5-4-1 at Capital One Arena this season and has outscored opponents by an average of 1.2 goals per game on home ice. Their goaltending tandem of Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren has been borderline elite in D.C., surrendering just 2.4 goals per contest while posting a collective .924 save percentage. The penalty kill, ranked first in the NHL at 85.7%, turns what should be Edmonton’s biggest weapon into a non-factor. The Oilers’ power play, lethal on paper at 28.6% for the season, has plummeted to a pedestrian 19.2% against top-10 penalty kills and has been held to one goal or fewer in four of their last six road games.

Edmonton rolls in at 9-8-4, but dig beneath the surface and the cracks are obvious. Their gaudy 5-1 road start came against some of the softest schedules you’ll ever see; against teams currently in a playoff position, the Oilers are a dismal 1-4 away from home, with Stuart Skinner coughing up 3.5+ goals per game at an .890 save percentage in those spots. Monday’s 5-1 embarrassment in Buffalo was their third loss in four games following a cross-country flight, and fatigue is a recurring theme for this group on the back end of eastern swings.

Offensively, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will get theirs .. they always do... but secondary scoring has dried up without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in the lineup, and Washington’s structure under Spencer Carbery is built to contain exactly this kind of top-heavy attack. The Caps themselves are starting to click again: Alex Ovechkin is heating up as he closes as looks to add to 900 plus career goals, Dylan Strome is driving a productive second line, and Tom Wilson adds the kind of sandpaper that can tilt tight games.

Everything lines up for a disciplined, low-event win for the home team. Washington has gone 6-3 in its last nine home games against Western Conference opponents, and Edmonton has dropped three of its last four in this exact travel spot. The price is still fair at -115 to -120 across the market and offers chalk value.

Play on Washington to win

 Wednesday night MACtion gives us one lone FBS bet that offers value with the fav, but it’s a beauty for bettors: Central Michigan heads to Kent State as 8-point road favorites  in a spot that screams value on the Chippewas. Central Michigan (6-4, 4-2 MAC) is already bowl-eligible and still very much alive in the conference race after ripping off three wins in their last four games, including a 38-19 dismantling of Buffalo where they forced five turnovers and piled up over 500 total yards. Matt Drinkall’s squad has found balance on offense (31.2 PPG over the last month) and remains one of the MAC’s best run-stopping units (top-50 nationally at 3.9 yards per carry allowed), a nightmare matchup for a Kent State ground game that hasn’t had a single back eclipse 50 yards in a game all season.

Kent State shocked Akron in overtime last week to snap a long skid, but that 42-35 shootout looks more like an outlier than a trend. The Golden Flashes still rank 10th in the MAC in total offense, dead last in scoring defense (31.8 PPG allowed), and have been outscored by double digits in every other conference loss. At home as 8+ point underdogs this year, they’re a dismal 1-4 ATS, and history isn’t kind: Central Michigan has won the last four meetings by an average of 22 points and hasn’t lost in this series since 2009.

The market opened CMU -9.5 and has settled at -8 to  -8.5 after sharp money came in on the Chippewas. That half-point drop only makes the play stronger. Joe Labas has been surgical at quarterback, completing 75% of his passes in recent weeks, and Kent’s secondary ranks 124th nationally in pass defense ...ripe for exploitation.

Play on Central Michigan to cover

In what might be the best non-conference game of the young season, No. 3 UConn hosts No. 4 Arizona on Wednesday night at Gampel Pavilion in a rare top-five clash on campus. The Huskies are 4-0 and rolling, but the betting market is giving the undefeated Wildcats far too little respect at +6.5. This spread is begging to be taken with Arizona.

UConn’s calling card is elite defense, currently holding opponents to just 62 points per game (top-25 nationally) while ranking inside KenPom’s top-15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Dan Hurley’s group has been ruthless at home, leading by an average of 23.5 points at halftime in their four wins. But dig a little deeper and cracks appear: the Huskies have trailed at the half in two of those four victories, including a narrow escape against BYU last weekend. Their early-season schedule outside of that BYU game has been so..blowouts over Columbia, Le Moyne, and East Texas A&M and the public is overreacting to the eye test.

Arizona, meanwhile, has already passed two massive road tests, knocking off then-No. 3 Florida on opening night and rallying to beat No. 15 UCLA in Pauley Pavilion on Friday. Tommy Lloyd’s birthday. The Wildcats sit top-15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom and lead the entire country in rebounding margin at +12.5 through four games. They dominate the glass, push in transition (nearly 20 fast-break points per game), and have a bench that has consistently outscored opponents by double digits in big spots.

The betting market is telling an interesting story. Despite UConn commanding roughly 68% of the money and tickets (Im using 8 books for this average), the line has barely budged from its 4.5 opener and now sits at a flat 6.5 across the market. That’s classic sharp respect on Arizon---pros are fading the public darling coming off a soft slate.

Everything points to a rock-fight decided in the final minutes. Arizona has covered seven of its last ten true road or neutral games, and Lloyd’s teams have been money against ranked opponents (23-13 ATS since he took over). UConn is undoubtedly tough at Gampel, but Arizona has the size, depth, and tempo to exploit the Huskies’ occasional lethargy out of the gate.

 . My fair line on this game is closer to UConn -2.5, giving the Wildcats a projected 78-75 type of win in a one-possession finish. In a matchup this tight between two national-title contenders, six and a half points is simply too many to lay with a team that hasn’t truly been tested yet. Fade the public, , and cash with the Wildcats.

Play on  Arizona to cover

Tonight’s top value play on the board is the Sacramento Kings +18.5 at the Oklahoma City Thunder, a massive spread that still carries a legitimate 6-8% edge depending on which projection system you trust most. The defending champion Thunder enter 14-1 and a perfect 6-0 at Paycom Center, steamrolling opponents by an absurd +15.5 net rating while ranking top-three in both scoring and defense. On paper, laying 18.5 points with the best team in basketball feels comfortable...thats until  until you dig into the details.

Sacramento is not the same Kings team that started the season with De’Aaron Fox. After the blockbuster trade that sent Fox to San Antonio, Zach LaVine has taken over as the offensive engine (31.0 PPG over his last eight) and the Kings have quietly morphed into a pace-and-space, bench-heavy unit that refuses to fold. They rank 11th in bench scoring (42.1 PPG) and have kept 6 of their last 7 road losses within 16 points despite a dismal 3-11 record. In games as double-digit underdogs this year, Sacramento is 4-3 ATS, and they’ve covered spreads of +15 or higher in seven of their last ten road contests dating back to last season.

Oklahoma City’s blowouts are real...four 20+ point wins in their last seven games ...but their track record when laying 18+ is thin and unimpressive. They are 0-1 ATS this season when favored by 18.5 or more, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren have routinely checked out early once leads balloon past 25. The Thunder defense is elite, but Sacramento plays at the sixth-fastest pace in the league and protects the ball well enough (top-10 turnover rate) to avoid the live-by-the-three, die-by-the-three death spiral that usually fuels OKC runaway wins.

My own projection models have settled around Thunder 125, Kings 107 ..exactly on the number after vig. Ive factored  in garbage-time management and Sacramento’s newfound depth suggests   the Kings roughly have a 58-60% probability of covering 18.5. At standard -110 juice, that’s a clear 6-8% edge, and the biggest positive-EV spread play on Wednesday’s slate.

 Take the  Kings +18.5