Alex Smart Premium Picks

late-night Pacific showdown where the San Jose Sharks offer solid moneyline value at -110 or better against the reeling Seattle Kraken. San Jose has turned SAP Center into a fortress lately, winning three of their past four home tilts and posting a respectable 10-9 record on home ice overall, good for +6 units in those games. The Sharks' recent surge aligns with improved defensive metrics, allowing them to capitalize on opponents' mistakes, and they've thrived as slight favorites in low-event matchups. Seattle, meanwhile, is mired in a brutal 1-9-1 skid over their last 11 contests, including a 5-7-3 road mark plagued by the NHL's second-worst goal differential. Kraken trends paint a grim picture: they've dropped 10 of their last 11 outright, with defensive lapses yielding an average of over four goals against in recent losses, making them ripe for exploitation by a Sharks squad that's 17-18 overall but trending upward at home. This pick hinges on fading Seattle's collapse while riding San Jose's home-ice edge, offering a near-even money shot in what could be a gritty, under-the-radar battle.

As the NHL ramps up into the holiday stretch, Saturday's 13-game schedule offers a treasure trove of betting opportunities, blending high-stakes divisional clashes with intriguing underdog stories. With teams jockeying for playoff positioning amid varying forms of hot streaks and slumps, savvy bettors can capitalize on emerging trends like home-ice disparities, offensive surges, and defensive vulnerabilities. Drawing from recent performance data and matchup-specific angles, one pick rises above the rest: the Philadelphia Flyers on the moneyline at +120 or better against the New York Rangers. This underdog play not only provides excellent value but also aligns with several key indicators pointing toward a potential upset at Madison Square Garden.

The Flyers enter this matinee matchup riding a wave of resilience, having collected points in four of their last five outings and boasting a point percentage that edges out the Rangers in the Eastern Conference standings. Philadelphia's road warrior mentality has been particularly impressive, with notable victories over elite squads like the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers, showcasing their ability to grind out results against superior talent. Offensively, they're middle-of-the-pack at 2.84 goals per game, but their defensive structure ranks seventh league-wide in goals allowed at 2.72 per contest—a stark contrast to New York's 28th-ranked scoring output of just 2.51 goals per game overall. The Rangers' home woes amplify this angle: they've stumbled to a dismal 4-13 record at MSG this season, translating to a .294 point percentage and a league-second-worst 1.76 goals per home game. Betting trends further underscore the value here; New York has been a money-burning favorite at home, going 10-10 straight-up but hemorrhaging units at -5.8 when priced as chalk, while the Flyers have quietly profited as road underdogs in similar spots. Historical head-to-heads tilt slightly toward the Rangers, but Philadelphia's current form, bolstered by a balanced attack and stingy back en, suggests they can exploit New York's offensive drought, especially if the game devolves into a low-scoring affair as projections indicate with an under 5.5 goals line at -110. At +114, this isn't just a hunch; it's a calculated fade of a struggling home favorite against a surging visitor.

As the NBA's Saturday slate heats up this Saturday, all eyes turn to Ball Arena where the Houston Rockets (16-8) visit the Denver Nuggets (20-6) in a Western Conference clash that promises intensity and intrigue. This matchup isn't just another regular-season game; it's a rematch of sorts after the teams split their earlier meetings this season, with each contest decided by single digits, underscoring the razor-thin margins between these squads. While this essentially a pickem Houston's depth, bolstered by a resilient road performance, combined with Denver's injury woes, tilts the scales just enough to make this a savvy pick for those hunting upside in a tightly contested affair.

Diving into the trends, the Rockets have shown remarkable grit away from home this season, posting an 8-6 record on the road—a mark that includes impressive wins against playoff contenders like the Thunder and Clippers. This isn't mere luck; Houston ranks in the top 10 league-wide for road defensive efficiency, allowing just 108.2 points per 100 possessions, which could be crucial against a Nuggets offense that, while potent, has shown vulnerability when missing key pieces. After a scorching 11-2 November, the Rockets have cooled to 3-4 in December, but their losses have come against elite teams like the Pelicans in overtime scenarios, highlighting their competitiveness rather than collapse. Moreover, as underdogs of 1.5 points or more, Houston is a perfect 2-0 against the spread this season, covering by an average margin of 7.5 points, a trend that bodes well for their ability to keep games close or outright steal victories in hostile environments like Denver's high-altitude lair.

On the flip side, the Nuggets' home dominance is undeniable, with a league-leading 12 games shooting 50% or better from the field (going 10-2 in those), and they've covered the spread in 16 of their 26 contests overall, showcasing their consistency under head coach Michael Malone. Denver's 20-6 record speaks to their championship pedigree, led by Nikola Jokic's MVP-caliber pla, averaging a triple-double threat nightly and a top-five net rating that keeps them in the Western Conference's upper echelon. However, cracks are appearing: The Nuggets are dealing with a battered roster, including Aaron Gordon sidelined with a right hamstring injury, Christian Braun out due to a left ankle issue, and others like Tamar Bates and Curtis Jones on the mend, which depletes their frontcourt depth and perimeter defense. This has led to a slight dip in home performance trends,, but more critically, they've struggled against teams with strong bench scoring like Houston's, going 3-3 straight up in such matchups this year. The altitude advantage at Ball Arena is real, but with Houston's young legs and rotational flexibility, it might not be the decisive factor it once was.

From a betting angle, the head-to-head history adds another layer of appeal to the Rockets moneyline. The teams have split their two meetings this season, but Houston's win came on the road in a gritty defensive showcase, holding Denver under 100 points which is a great feat they've replicated in four of their last six away victories. Injuries play a pivotal role here too; the Rockets are without Tari Eason (left lower leg injury management) and potentially Dorian Finney-Smith, but their core of Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun, and Jabari Smith Jr. remains intact, providing matchup advantages against a thinned-out Nuggets rotation.

Ultimately, this pick boils down to value in an evenly matched showdown. At -1 favs or moneyline, the Rockets offer bettors a near-even shot at profiting from a team that's proven it can hang with and beat the Nuggets on their court. While Denver's home trends and star power make them the rightful favorites, Houston's road resilience, depth advantages amid injuries, and underdog ATS success create a compelling case for the upset. In a league where parity reigns, backing the Rockets here isn't just a hunch it's a calculated angle grounded in the data.

The Indy Classic heats up on December 20, 2025, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where the No. 6 Purdue Boilermakers (10-1) meet the No. 21 Auburn Tigers (8-3) in a ranked neutral-site battle ripe with betting intrigue. Purdue's balanced attack, led by efficient scoring inside and out, gives them a clear angle against Auburn's inconsistent defense, which has allowed over 75 points in recent losses. The Boilermakers have covered in five of their last seven as favorites, bolstered by a 66.79% projected win probability and trends showing them excelling in high-profile games, including last season's road trip to Auburn's home. Auburn, meanwhile, sits at 1-5 ATS in their last six Saturday games and has struggled as underdogs, going over in seven of nine such spots due to defensive lapses. My power rankings Models predict Purdue winning by double digits, around 84-74, thanks to their rebounding dominance and ability to exploit Auburn's turnover-prone offense. The neutral venue favors Purdue's experience, with sharp bettors hammering the opening -7.5 line amid Auburn's 2-3 road/neutral record this year. This pick rides Purdue's momentum and Auburn's recent skid, making it a strong play for those targeting Big Ten physicality over SEC athleticism in this matchup.

Play on Purdue to cover

In a intriguing non-conference clash at the Prudential Center this Saturday the Houston Cougars (10-1) take on the Arkansas Razorbacks (9-2), with both squads eyeing a resume-boosting win ahead of conference play. Houston's defensive prowess is the key angle here, ranking among the nation's elite in points allowed and forcing turnovers, which should disrupt Arkansas' up-tempo style under coach John Calipari. The Cougars have covered in three of their last four as favorites, showcasing their ability to grind out wins against quality opponents, while Arkansas, despite a 5-0 ATS run in their last five games, faces a step-up in competition on a neutral floor. Trends point to Houston's edge: they've gone 4-1 in neutral-site games over the past two seasons, and their projected 65% win probability stems from superior rebounding and half-court execution, with my power rankings models forecasting a close but decisive 79-72 outcome. Arkansas has been impressive with top-25 wins earlier, but their reliance on perimeter shooting could falter against Houston's pack-line defense, which limits second-chance opportunities. Bettors are split, but sharp money has nudged the line toward Houston -4.5, reflecting confidence in the Cougars' veteran core pulling away in the second half. This pick capitalizes on Houston's defensive trends and Arkansas' potential for regression in a high-stakes environment.

Houston to cover

As the CBS Sports Classic tips off this Saturday, at State Farm Arena, the North Carolina Tar Heels (10-1) face off against the Ohio State Buckeyes (8-2) in a neutral-site showdown that's drawing sharp action from bettors. North Carolina enters on a hot streak, boasting a 7-4 record in the CBS Sports Classic, including a perfect 3-0 mark against Ohio State, which highlights their dominance in this high-profile event. The Tar Heels' offensive efficiency stands out, averaging around 79 points in projections, fueled by a balanced attack and strong perimeter play that exploits mismatches. Ohio State, while solid at 4-6 against the spread this season, has shown vulnerabilities in big spots, needing overtime to edge past lesser foes like West Virginia and struggling to cover as underdogs. Trends favor UNC here: they've covered in four of their last five neutral-site games, and their depth allows them to pull away late against teams like OSU that rank middling in defensive efficiency. With a projected win probability of over 66% and a final score around 79-72, the angle is on North Carolina's experience in marquee matchups overwhelming Ohio State's inconsistent road/neutral performance. Betting the Tar Heels -4 feels like value, especially with the line holding steady despite public money on the Buckeyes as live dogs. My power rankings projections are leaning toward UNC covering in a game that could turn on free-throw accuracy and rebounding edges.

Play on N.Carolina to cover

Autzen Stadium in Eugene, where the No. 5 Oregon Ducks are set to host the No. 12 James Madison Dukes on Saturday,. Oregon comes in as overwhelming favorites, with the spread hovering at -20.5 on major books. The moneyline tells a similar story of dominance, listing the Ducks as steep as -2500 while JMU sits at +1200. . But while casual bettors are loading up on Oregon to steamroll the Sun Belt upstarts, savvy handicappers are finding real value in the underdog. James Madison has been overlooked in the playoff chatter, often dismissed with lazy comparisons to Liberty's blowout loss to Oregon in last year's Fiesta Bowl. Yet a closer look at the trends reveals why JMU +20.5 could be the sharpest bet on the board, exposing Oregon's vulnerabilities and highlighting the Dukes' proven resilience.

James Madison's track record against the spread (ATS) as underdogs is nothing short of dominant, making them a prime candidate to keep this game closer than the line suggests. Over their last 10 outings as +10 or more dogs, the Dukes have gone 7-3 ATS, consistently punching above their weight. This season, they finished 9-3 straight up and 8-4 ATS, with strong covers against solid Group of Five teams and even a Power Four foe like Louisville in non-conference action. They cashed their +280 preseason odds to win the Sun Belt with ease, cruising through the East division to secure the automatic bid. JMU's defense, ranked in the national top 10 for success rate, stuff rate, and line yards allowed, is tailor-made to frustrate run-oriented attacks like Oregon's. With running back George Pettaway anchoring a ground game that controls the clock and a front seven that forces inefficient possessions, the Dukes specialize in shortening games and turning explosive offenses into plodding ones. In a playoff setting, this approach often translates to tighter scores, especially when facing teams that might start slow due to overconfidence or early jitters.

On the flip side, Oregon's ATS performance raises red flags for anyone laying big chalk. The Ducks boast a 10-2 straight-up record this year, but they've struggled to cover when favored by -13 or more, managing just a 4-5 mark in those spots. This stems from a tendency toward conservative playcalling in the second half once leads are built, allowing backdoor covers to slip through. Sure, Oregon is 8-0 ATS against top-25 teams in similar scenarios since 2013, but that history mostly involves familiar Pac-12 matchups, not rugged G5 squads in chilly December conditions. Their No. 2-ranked offense, powered by quarterback Dillon Gabriel's aerial assault, could face resistance from JMU's secondary, which has limited opponents to under 200 passing yards in six of their last eight games. Factor in the possibility of rain in Eugene, and the Ducks' high-tempo style might grind to a halt, paving the way for a lower-scoring contest where the spread stays within reach. The public has pushed this line up from a more reasonable -17.5, inflating it by a touchdown and creating outsized value on the Dukes.

Digging deeper into the matchup, JMU holds subtle edges that could fuel a cover. Oregon's vaunted front four might disrupt, but the Dukes' versatile offense, spearheaded by quarterback Alonza Barnett III,has dropped 30-plus points in nine games this season. JMU's elite defense excels at turning red-zone trips into field goals, a pattern that doomed Oregon's covers against teams like Boise State earlier in the year. Playoff underdogs like the Dukes also thrive on motivation; entering selection Sunday as +130 longshots just to make the field, they've embraced the disrespect from previews labeling this matchup a "waste." History backs this u,recall Tulane covering +13 and winning outright against USC in the 2023 Cotton Bowl as a similar G5 interloper. Line movement further sweetens the pot: Starting at -20.5 and ticking up to -21 in some books, it deviates from fair projections around -17.5 to -18, handing JMU a +3 to +4 point edge. For those fading a rout,

Scores like 34-20 or 35-17 see Oregon advancing while JMU cashes easily. In a slate full of public traps, fading the Ducks' hype and backing the Dukes' grit could make for a winning Saturday. Shop around and lock in +20.5 at -110 before it moves further

The No. 11 Tulane Green Wave visiting the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels. for me the Rebels emerge as a strong favorite to cover the -17 point spread. This isn't just about the home-field advantage in Oxford,it's backed by compelling trends and angles that highlight Ole Miss's dominance and Tulane's potential vulnerabilities in this high-stakes postseason clash.

Start with the offensive firepower that's defined Ole Miss this season. The Rebels have averaged over 37 points per game (PPG), a trend fueled by a balanced attack led by running back Kewan Lacy and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. This isn't a fluke; Ole Miss has gone 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 home games, often pulling away in the second half against lesser opponents. Against Group of Five teams like Tulane, they've been particularly ruthless, covering in six of their last seven such matchups by an average margin of 18 points. Factor in their earlier 45-10 blowout win over Tulane this very season, that's not ancient history; it's a direct angle showing the talent disparity. Tulane's defense, while scrappy, ranks outside the top 50 in yards per play allowed, and they've struggled ATS as underdogs on the road, going 2-5 in their last seven.

On the flip side, motivational angles add another layer to this pick. Ole Miss enters with an undefeated home streak this year, and under interim coaching, teams in similar spots have historically performed well, covering at a 60% clip in playoff scenarios using my power rankings models. The Rebels' depth shines here, with a roster built for attrition, key in December games where injuries and fatigue often decide outcomes. Tulane, meanwhile, might be dealing with coaching transition rust, a common trend that sees teams cover just 40% ATS in bowl or playoff games amid staff changes.

For bettors, line movement is worth monitoring—if it creeps to -17.5, shopping around for better value pay off, as historical data shows inflated spreads in rematches often still cash for the favorite when the initial blowout was by 30+ points.