Alex Smart Premium Picks
Alex Smart has been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for the better part of 30 years. He has numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes at the Sports Monitor since becoming documented 17 years ago and has consistently finished among the nations top handicappers in all major North American sports venues
Alex Smart

Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything!
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
The Boston Celtics face the Milwaukee Bucks at TD Garden, where Boston enters as a sizable 12.5-point favorite . At 30-18 on the season, the Celtics are coming off a convincing 112-93 win over the Sacramento Kings, though they have shown some inconsistency by alternating wins and losses over their last stretch of games. The Bucks, meanwhile, sit at 18-28 and are riding a four-game losing streak, further hampered by the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf injury) and Kevin Porter Jr. (oblique injury). Jaylen Brown is expected to return to the Boston lineup after missing their most recent game, providing a timely boost to their perimeter scoring and defensive versatility.
This game presents a strong betting angle on the Celtics covering the spread, driven by several clear statistical trends and situational factors. Boston ranks among the league's elite in both offensive and defensive efficiency, allowing them to dictate tempo and exploit mismatches more effectively than most teams. Milwaukee has been one of the worst road teams against the spread this season, sitting at just 8-15 ATS away from home. The trend becomes even more pronounced without Giannis, as the Bucks have repeatedly failed to keep games within double digits in recent outings when he is sidelined, often getting outscored significantly in the paint and transition.
The injury angle is particularly compelling: Milwaukee's offense has historically dropped by double-digit points per 100 possessions without their star forward, creating a sizable efficiency gap that Boston can exploit at home. The Celtics have also demonstrated strong home/road splits, performing at a higher level defensively in Boston while forcing opponents into lower-efficiency shots. . Head-to-head history further supports the Celtics side, with Boston frequently covering large spreads against injury-depleted Milwaukee rosters in recent seasons. Overall, the combination of home dominance, efficiency edges, and the opponent's road and injury struggles makes Boston a high-confidence favorite in this spot.
In the landscape of college basketball betting, few matchups today offer the kind of lopsided opportunity presented by Iowa State facing off against Kansas State. The Cyclones enter this contest riding a wave of dominance, having secured victories in 18 of their last 20 games straight up, a trend that underscores their consistency and ability to overpower opponents. This isn't just about winning; it's about how they're doing it. Iowa State has covered the spread in 13 of their 21 games this season, including a flawless run in their most recent three outings where they triumphed by margins of 30, 14, and 30 points. That kind of blowout capability highlights an angle bettors should love: the Cyclones' knack for pulling away when they sense weakness, particularly through a stifling defense that ranks among the nation's best at forcing turnovers and controlling the glass.
On the flip side, Kansas State's season has been a tale of inconsistency, reflected in their dismal 8-13 record against the spread overall. The Wildcats have been especially vulnerable at home, failing to cover in each of their last five games on their own court, and they've gone 3-7 against the spread in their past 10 contests. This home underdog angle is particularly telling—Kansas State hasn't covered once this year when listed as an underdog of 12.5 points or more, a spot they've found themselves in amid a 1-4 straight-up skid in their last five games. Statistically, their offense relies heavily on guard play, but that dependency crumbles against teams like Iowa State that excel at disrupting rhythms and limiting second-chance opportunities. Add in the head-to-head history, where Iowa State claimed a convincing 73-57 win in their most recent meeting, and the trends point to another comfortable margin.
Bettors eyeing value in road favorites will appreciate Iowa State's 4-2 record against the spread away from home, contrasting sharply with Kansas State's 4-3 home ATS mark that's been dragged down by recent failures. The Cyclones have also covered lines of 11.5 points or more in 15 of their last 20 games and seven of their last 10, a trend that aligns with their offensive efficiency,ranking in the top 10 nationally, and their ability to convert defensive stops into easy scoring runs. Kansas State, meanwhile, struggles to sustain offense against winning teams, often leading to games that slip away in the second half. This matchup screams for a play on Iowa State to cover the 12.5-point spread, capitalizing on these converging trends and stats for what shapes up as the strongest betting angle on today's slate.
SERVICE BIO
Experience & Awards
I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years.
My picks have been documented for 22 years.
I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.
I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.
I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis.
Handicapping Approach
I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.
My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.
Sports Betting Is An Investment
Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures.
Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.
I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.
In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.
I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!
This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!
Money Management
To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.
If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets.
This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.
Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.
1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.
2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.
3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.
4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.
5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.
6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.
These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.
I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.
*All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).




