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Both teams are dealing with significant injuries, but the Knicks' home dominance and Miami's road struggles tilt the scales toward New York covering the spread

Advanced projections favor the Knicks heavily at home, even without their star guard.

Injuries are the story here, thinning both benches but hitting Miami harder in the frontcourt.

 The Knicks: Jalen Brunson (28.0 PPG, 6.5 APG) is out with a Grade 1 right ankle sprain suffered Wednesday against Orland..he'll miss this game but is day-to-day beyond it. However, Karl-Anthony Towns steps up as the focal point, averaging 12.6 RPG (3rd in NBA) and 4.0 APG. New York's depth has held firm, going 3-1 without Brunson in limited minutes this season. Meanwhile the , Heat: The absences are brutal. Bam Adebayo (19.9 PPG, 8.1 RPG) is outwith a toe injury, crippling their interior defense (now 23rd in points allowed at 120.7 PPG). Tyler Herro (post-surgery on left foot/ankle) remains sidelined, targeting a mid-to-late November return..he's been ramping up but won't play tonight. Miami's been outscored by 5.2 points per 100 possessions without Adebayo..

These absences drop Miami's defensive rating to 118.2 (bottom-10) and make them vulnerable to New York's paint attack.

The Knicks are surging at MSG despite the recent loss snapping a five-game win streak. They're 7-0 straight-up at home this season (up from 8-3 in your note, reflecting the Orlando defeat) and 6-1 ATS overall, including covers in 6 of 8 home games. New York outscores foes by +8.2 points per 100 possessions at home, ranking top-5 in net rating there.

Miami, meanwhile, has cooled off, dropping two straight. They're 3-2 ATS on the road (, but still middling) and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven away games. In NBA Cup play, they've lost 4 of 6, and their fast pace (No. 1 in the league at 124.8 PPG) hasn't translated to wins without full health.

H This is the rematch of Miami's 115-107 win on Oct. 26, but New York owns a 4-1 ATS edge in the last five meetings overall. The Knicks are 5-0 SU in their last five home games vs. Miami.

Play on the Knicks

The Cougars enter 1-2 but remain a home-court juggernaut, going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at TD Arena against sub-.500 opponents and 13-2 straight-up last season with an average margin of 18.3 points. South Carolina State, meanwhile, is 0-3 with blowout losses of 59, 34, and 23 points, scoring just 62.5 PPG while surrendering 93.7 and posting a -12 rebound margin in defeats; the Bulldogs are also 1-7 SU in their last eight road games and 0-5 ATS in their last five against CAA foes. Charleston’s transfer-guard duo is averaging 18.2 PPG on 48% shooting, led by Jlynn Counter’s 22-point outburst against FAU, and the Cougars’ defense—highlighted by a 52 PPG allowed trend in early wins—should throttle a Bulldogs offense that ranks 315th in tempo.With thqt said Im projecting Charleston wins by 21 to 25 points, creating a sifnificant edge over the -17 line; using a 13-point standard deviation, that translates to a 58.6% cover probability against the 52.4% break-even for -110 juice, yielding roughly 3.2% expected ROI.

CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a horrible offensive team (63 or less PPG), after a combined score of 155 points or more 2 straight games. are 43-16 ATS since 1998.

44.5 is the lowest total Oregon has seen all season, and it’s a classic Vegas trap. The Ducks are averaging 38.7 PPG (3rd in FBS) and 239.7 rush YPG (6th), yet oddsmakers are pricing this like Minnesota can slow them down. They can’t.

Minnesota’s run defense ranks 81st in success rate vs. the rush (per SP+) and has surrendered 4.5+ YPC in every loss. Oregon’s ground game is built for this:

Noah Whittington: 551 rush yds, 5.8 YPCJordon Davison: 404 yds, 10 TDsTop-10 explosive run rate (12.1%)

Even if Oregon hits just 30–35 points (their floor in 6 of 8 wins), Minnesota needs one TD or two FGs to cash the Over. That’s it.

Key Trends That Scream OVER  ...Oregon home games 6-2 Over last 8/+3.45u of profit/Big Ten road unders for Minnesota 0-4 Over last 4 road games+3.64u profit (betting Overs)Oregon vs. non-P5/Big Ten bottom-50 rush defenses are 5-0 Over (avg. 61.2 pts)+4.55u profit /Friday night CFB totals  45 or less .59-9-3 Over YTD +5.18u/Autzen Stadium night games (temp 45–60°F)7-1 Over last 8/+5.36 units of profit

According to my projections this total is a FG to low- Oregon’s tempo plus Minnesota’s inability to stop the run projects to 35 points from the Ducks alone.Ducks have cleared 34 points in 7 straight home games.

Play over