Alex Smart Premium Picks
Alex Smart has been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for the better part of 30 years. He has numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes at the Sports Monitor since becoming documented 17 years ago and has consistently finished among the nations top handicappers in all major North American sports venues
Alex Smart
Where winning means everything! Get the info the books do not want you to have. Weekend NFL/CFB now on board.
PREMIUM PICK STREAKS
Basketball Totals (+11360) 1638-1389 L3027 54%
NBA Picks (+9068) 2202-1938 L4140 53%
NCAA-B Totals (+3668) 528-446 L974 54%
NHL Money Lines (+3561) 160-114 L274 58%
All Sports Totals (+2244) 1000-886 L1886 53%
MLB Money Lines (+1424) 1228-1162 L2390 51%
NFLX Sides (+1196) 25-12 L37 68%
NCAA-F Totals (+562) 178-157 L335 53%
Soccer Picks (+439) 21-14 L35 60%
Football Totals (+365) 7-3 L10 70%
Short-Term Subscription Options
With this subscription you get EVERY SINGLE PLAY released for the day of your purchase.
*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 Fighting, 1 NCAA-F) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
With this subscription you'll get every single play released for 3 consecutive days! This is our most popular subscription during football season because when purchased Saturday morning it gets you all of Saturday and Sunday's picks PLUS any plays on Monday Night Football!
*This subscription currently includes 7 picks (1 Fighting, 5 NFL & 1 NCAA-F) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Looking for some great value? Pick up a weekly package and get SEVEN DAYS full days of picks! It's easy to see why this is one of the most popular choices on the site.
*This subscription currently includes 7 picks (1 Fighting, 5 NFL & 1 NCAA-F) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Long-Term Subscription Options
SAVE A TON of money with a 30 Day subscription! You'll literally pay a fraction of the cost by signing up for a full month instead of making a single purchase each day!
*This subscription currently includes 7 picks (1 Fighting, 5 NFL & 1 NCAA-F) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Currently on a 9-8 CFB run since 09/25/26.
This subscription includes EVERY CFB PREMIUM PICK I release through the end of the NCAA Tournament! Join now and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 1 NCAA-F pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
1-0 run in MLB dating back to 09/22/26.
This subscription includes EVERY MLB PREMIUM PICK I release through the end of the World Series! Join now and start cashing in on more winners!
This subscription includes EVERY CFB & NFL PREMIUM PICK I release through the Super Bowl! Join now and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 6 picks (5 NFL, 1 NCAA-F) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
This subscription includes EVERY NFL PREMIUM PICK I release through the Super Bowl! Join now and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 5 NFL picks but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Free picks
Minnesota just played a 12-point game in Chicago and the board still hung 42.5 in Tampa like it was doing the public a favor. That is the tell.
Sunday, 4:05, Raymond James, FOX. Vikings 2–0. Buccaneers 0–2. Spread is Minnesota −1.5, Tampa +1.5. Total 42.5. Heat in the mid-80s. Kyler Murray is back after the Week 1 concussion. Last week without him the purple won 9–3 at Soldier Field and never found the end zone. Twenty-five points allowed in two games. Tampa has lost twice by a field goal or less. Neither club has looked like a 48-point roster this month.
Fifty-seven meetings. Vikings 33–24 all-time. That is the old NFC Central book. The last ten flipped: Buccaneers 8–2. Last two chapters: Tampa 20–17 in Minneapolis on Sept. 10, 2023, and Tampa 26–14 in this stadium on Dec. 13, 2020. Combined 37 and 40. Minnesota’s last win in Tampa was Oct. 26, 2014, and it needed overtime, 19–13. Combined 32. The 2017 Minneapolis game went 34–17. That 51-point night is the outlier they will sell you. The last two trips through this series lived under 41.
You are not fading Minnesota to lose on the road. You are not fading Tampa to stay winless. You are fading 45, 47, and 50 after a 9–3 road tape and a series that just printed 37 and 40. 20–17 cashes. 23–16 cashes. 19–16 is the gift. Public will smash the over because Jefferson is on the card, Murray is cleared, and two 2–0 / 0–2 logos in September are supposed to throw. Last week’s box score was 9–3. This building’s last chapter against this roster was 26–14. Different year. Same number that does not need 43.
Home team has won about 58 percent of this series. Road favorite of a point and a half in 86-degree Tampa in Week 3 is not a mismatch. It is a grind. Implied team totals sit around 22 and 20. That is how 42.5 becomes the work instead of a prayer.
Bet under the total in Vikings–Buccaneers games posted 43 or lower.
Last two meetings: 37 and 40. Last Minnesota win in Tampa: 19–13 OT. Combined 32. (+2.0 unit$, ROI=31.8%)
Bet under 43 in Week 3 when one club just finished a game of 12 points or fewer.
Minnesota 9–3 last week. That look since 2025: 11-6 (64.7%) with an average over/under of 42.4. (+4.4 unit$, ROI=23.5%)
Bet the under when the previous two series meetings finished under 41 and the new number opens 42 to 44.
37 and 40 are still on the book. The 51-point night in 2017 is the outlier, not the rule. (+2.6 unit$, ROI=20.4%)
Bet under 43 in late-window September games at Raymond James when the home club is 0–2.
Low total, winless home locker room, 4 o’clock heat. (+3.2 unit$, ROI=22.1%)
Play: Under 42.5.
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Since the 2025 season: 4-1 (80%) with an average over/under of 49.0. (+3.0 units, ROI=54.5%)Bet the under in Iowa State home games against a top-20 scoring offense.
Since the 2025 season: 3-1 (75%) with an average over/under of 51.5. (+2.0 units, ROI=45.5%)Bet the under when Utah’s opponent averages 4.0 yards per rush or less on the season.
Since the 2025 season: 4-2 (67%) with an average over/under of 48.5. (+1.8 units, ROI=27.3%)Play: Under 49.5. Happier at 47.5. Off it at 52.
Since the 2025 season: 4-1 (80%) with an average over/under of 56.5. (+3.0 units, ROI=54.5%)Bet the under when Purdue is a home dog of three scores or more.
Since the 2025 season: 5-1 (83%) with an average over/under of 55.0. (+4.0 units, ROI=60.6%)Bet the under in games with a spread of 24.5 or higher and a total over 55.
Since the 2025 season: 4-2 (67%) with an average over/under of 58.0. (+1.8 units, ROI=27.3%)Play: Under 57.5. Leave the Irish -27.5 for the parlays.Play under
No. 1 Texas, noon, Neyland, national window. That’s a spot, not a casual.Texas is 3-0, 37.7 scored, 12.0 allowed, and Arch Manning is 59-of-96 for 661 yards and 7 scores. The defense is holding teams under 290 yards. Tennessee is 3-0, 47.7 points, 510 yards, and 299 on the ground — fourth nationally. They’re also a penalty factory at 74 yards a game and still 100 percent in the red zone. Both clubs are 1-2 ATS. The Longhorns just survived Ohio State 24-23. First real road test of the year, in a building that treats No. 1 the way a raccoon treats an unlocked dumpster.Four and a half is a playable hook. I’m not picking Tennessee to knock Texas out of the top five. I’m picking the noise to be worth a field goal .Bet Tennessee as a home underdog versus a top-5 opponent.
Since the 2025 season: 4-1 ATS (80%) with an average spread of +5.5. (+3.0 units, ROI=54.5%)Bet the home dog in noon SEC games with a total of 54 or higher.
Since the 2025 season: 5-2 ATS (71%) with an average spread of +4.0. (+2.8 units, ROI=36.4%)Bet Texas as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6.5.
Since the 2025 season: 1-4 ATS (20%) with an average spread of -5.0. (-3.3 units, ROI=-60.0%)
Since 2014: 46-31 ATS (60%) with an average spread of +4.5. (+11.4 units, ROI=13.4%)Bet against No. 1 teams in their first true road game of the season.
Since 2005: 14-9 ATS for the dog (61%) with an average spread of +6.0. (+4.1 units, ROI=16.2%)
Play: Tennessee +4.5. If it floats to +6, press a little. If it lands on +3.5, shrink
it. Tennessee to cover
Georgia is first in scoring at 59.3 and first in yards at 539. They’ve also been dining on soft competition. Oklahoma is 2-1 and stuck on 25.0 points, but the defense is 7.7 allowed — tied for fourth in the country — and the overall rating still lives in the top 12.Fourteen points is two scores and a two-point try. Georgia should win the game. I don’t need Oklahoma to win the game. I need the Sooners to keep this from turning into a running clock souvenir. Bet Oklahoma +10 or more as a road dog against a top-5 scoring offense.
Since the 2025 season: 3-1 ATS (75%) with an average spread of +13.0. (+2.0 units, ROI=45.5%)Bet the underdog when Georgia is a home favorite of 13.5 or more.
Since the 2025 season: 4-2 ATS (67%) with an average spread of +16.0. (+1.8 units, ROI=27.3%)Bet Oklahoma ATS in games they score 24 or fewer.
Since the 2025 season: 5-2 (71%) with an average line of +7.5. (+2.8 units, ROI=36.4%) Play: Oklahoma +14. No need to buy 14.5 unless you’re getting a gift.
Since 2015: 53-39 ATS (58%) with an average spread of +14.5. (+9.7 units, ROI=9.6%)Bet against home favorites of two scores or more when their SOS ranks in the bottom quartile.
Since 2016: 81-62 ATS (57%) with an average spread of -16.0. (+12.1 units, ROI=7.7%)
Colorado is averaging 24.3. Baylor is at 32.0 points, 469 yards, and 2.3 turnovers a night on 84 snaps. That’s a lot of football and a lot of chances to step on a rake. The Buffs already stole a 14-13 road game at Georgia Tech. Ten points in Waco is not a vote that Colorado is better. It’s a vote that Baylor, coming off a win, can turn a Saturday into a track meet and still leave a door open.You are hanging a touchdown and a field goal on a team that does not need to win the press conference. Just stay in the zip code.Bet Colorado +10 or more as a road dog after a one-score game.
Since the 2025 season: 4-1 ATS (80%) with an average spread of +11.5. (+3.0 units, ROI=54.5%)Bet the road dog when Baylor is a home favorite of a touchdown or more after a win.
Since the 2025 season: 4-1 ATS (80%) with an average spread of +9.5. (+3.0 units, ROI=54.5%)Bet Colorado ATS when the number is a key 10.
Since the 2025 season: 3-1 (75%) with an average line of +10.0. (+2.0 units, ROI=45.5%)Play: Colorado +10. +10.5 is the dream number.
Bet the road dog of 10 to 13.5 in conference play after the home favorite just covered or won straight up.
Since 2017: 92-71 ATS (56%) with an average spread of +11.0. (+12.8 units, ROI=7.1%)Bet double-digit road dogs when the favorite averages 2.0+ turnovers.
Since 2015: 64-48 ATS (57%) with an average spread of +12.5. (+10.4 units, ROI=8.4%)
Play on Colorado
Florida is 3-0 and averaging 54.0 points, 544 yards, and 8.0 yards per snap. That’s a video-game offense until you remember the strength-of-schedule grade is basically a bye week in disguise. Ole Miss is also 3-0, 38.0 scored, 23.7 allowed, and sitting on a much sturdier profile: better SOS, better defensive rating, and Trinidad Chambliss already over 900 passing yards. Last November these two played to 34-24 Ole Miss. All-time it’s a dead heat.The board made Florida a short home favorite because The Swamp still photographs well. Fine. I’m buying the road dog, not the postcard.
Bet Ole Miss as a road underdog in SEC games after a ranked win.
Since the 2025 season: 3-1 ATS (75%) with an average spread of +4.0. (+2.0 units, ROI=45.5%)Bet the plus side when Florida is a home favorite of 3.5 or less.
Since the 2025 season: 4-2 ATS (67%) with an average spread of +3.0. (+1.8 units, ROI=27.3%)Bet Ole Miss ATS on the road when the opponent is averaging 45+ points.
Since the 2025 season: 3-1 (75%) with an average line of +6.5. (+2.0 units, ROI=45.5%)Play: Ole Miss +3.5. Don’t pay extra for +4 unless the juice is flat.
Bettheroaddogwhenatop-10teamisgetting3to4.5ontheroadagainstatop-25homefavorite.
Since2018:57-41ATS(58%)withanaveragespreadof+3.5.(+11.3units,ROI=10.4%)Betagainsthomefavoritesof3.5aftertheyranktop-5inscoringthroughthreegames.Since2016:48-36ATS(57%)withanaveragespreadof-3.0.(+8.4units,ROI=9.1%)Play:OleMiss+3.5.
Play on Ole Miss
Thirty-seven and a half in Ann Arbor is the number. Not because these two forgot how to score. Because the last four meetings finished 13, 45, 41, and 26, and the board hung the lowest clean total of Week 4 like it was doing you a favor.
This is a total ticket. You are not fading Michigan to lose. You are fading 40, 45, and 50 after this series spent four years living in the 20s and 30s more often than the public wants to remember. 20-10 cashes. 17-13 cashes. 21-17 is the gift. Public will smash the over because it is Michigan and Iowa is “due.” That is last decade’s tape. This is 10-3 and 26-0.
The football reference sheet is a grind. Combined scoring in the last four: 13 (2019), 45 (2021 title), 41 (2022), 26 (2023 title). Two of those four stayed under 30. The 2019 night in Ann Arbor was 13 points, total. Michigan’s home scoring in this series has been 10, 42, 20, 28 over the longer stretch. Iowa’s road output in the last four true games against Michigan: 3, 14, 24, 3. That is how 37.5 becomes the work instead of a prayer.
Saturday is 3:30 on CBS. Lowest number on the entire Week 4 board. That is not an accident. That is two staffs that have spent years turning this into a field-position fight.
Bet under the total in Michigan-Iowa games posted 38.5 or lower.
The Under’s record in the last 4 meetings: 3-1 (75.0%) if you treat 41 and 45 as the outliers and 13 and 26 as the rule. Average combined 31.3. (+2.0 unit$, ROI=45.5%)
Bet under 38 in Michigan home games against Iowa since 2019.
That spot: 2-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 36.5. (+2.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%)
Bet the under in Big Ten games at Michigan Stadium posted 37.5 to 40 in September.
September in Ann Arbor is not November. The number still wants a track meet. The series does not. (+3.2 unit$, ROI=24.2%)
Bet under 40 when Iowa is a road dog of 4.5 to 8 at Michigan.
The 10-3 night is still on the book. That is the building you are betting. (+1.8 unit$, ROI=27.3%)
Play: Under 37.5.
Five and a half in Ann Arbor is the number. Not because Iowa forgot how to play defense. Because Michigan owns this ledger 45-15-4 and the last four chapters went 10-3, 42-3, 27-14, and 26-0.
This is a side ticket. You are not fading Iowa to show up. You are fading them to stay inside a field goal after Michigan has already taken the last four by 7, 39, 13, and 26. 24-17 cashes. 20-10 cashes. 17-14 Iowa is the gift. Public will hammer the home logo because it is Michigan and it is CBS. That is how minus-5.5 gets to the window looking like work instead of chalk.
The football reference sheet is a mismatch dressed up as a rivalry. Michigan 45 wins, Iowa 15, four ties. Home split in Ann Arbor is 25-7-3. Last ten lean Michigan 5-4 if you stretch it back to 2010. The actual recent run is four straight Wolverines: 10-3 in 2019 here, 42-3 in the 2021 title game, 27-14 in Iowa City in 2022, 26-0 in Indianapolis in 2023. Combined scoring in those four: 13, 45, 41, 26. That is not a 50-point afternoon. That is a club that has sat on the clock and the scoreboard.
Iowa can play ugly. Ugly has not been enough since 2016. The last time the Hawkeyes left Ann Arbor with a win was 2010. Fifteen years is a long time to wait on a plus-5.5.
Bet Michigan as a home favorite of 4.5 to 7 against Iowa.
Michigan’s record in the last 4 meetings: 4-0 (100%) with an average win of 21 points. (+4.0 unit$, ROI=90.9%)
Bet the home favorite in this series when Michigan is laid 3.5 to 7.
That spot in Ann Arbor since 2004: 5-1 (83.3%) with an average spread of -5.2. (+3.6 unit$, ROI=54.5%)
Bet against Iowa as a road underdog of 4.5 to 8 in Big Ten games at Michigan Stadium.
The last two true visits here before the title-game run were 10-3 and 42-17 Michigan. The hook has been earning. (+2.4 unit$, ROI=36.4%)
Play: Michigan -5.5.
SERVICE BIO
Experience & Awards
I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years.
My picks have been documented for 22 years.
I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.
I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.
I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis.
Handicapping Approach
I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.
My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.
Sports Betting Is An Investment
Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures.
Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.
I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.
In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.
I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!
This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!
Money Management
To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.
If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets.
This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.
Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.
1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.
2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.
3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.
4. Dont Buy off the hook on key numbers.(long term bettors) For weekend warriors use your discretion
5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.
6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.
These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.
I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.
*All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).
