Alex Smart Premium Picks
Alex Smart has been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for the better part of 30 years. He has numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes at the Sports Monitor since becoming documented 17 years ago and has consistently finished among the nations top handicappers in all major North American sports venues
Alex Smart
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PREMIUM PICK STREAKS
NBA Picks (+7665) 1001-855 L1856 54%
All Sports Totals (+6722) 936-798 L1734 54%
NHL Picks (+6075) 269-200 L469 57%
MLB Money Lines (+5293) 390-329 L719 54%
Basketball Totals (+3282) 570-491 L1061 54%
NCAA-F Picks (+3048) 764-667 L1431 53%
Football Totals (+1569) 183-153 L336 54%
NCAA-B Totals (+1063) 125-103 L228 55%
WNBA Sides (+683) 114-99 L213 54%
NFLX Totals (+554) 11-5 L16 69%
CFL Sides (+411) 51-42 L93 55%
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jazz vs Nuggets | Jazz -1 -109 | Premium | 109-105 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Pacers vs Clippers | UNDER 220 -109 | Premium | 96-129 | Loss | -109 | Show |
| Bucs vs Saints | Bucs +3 -120 | Premium | 30-20 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Pacers vs Clippers | Pacers +6 -110 | Premium | 96-129 | Loss | -110 | Show |
| Pelicans vs Kings | UNDER 228½ -110 | Premium | 128-123 | Loss | -110 | Show |
| Jazz vs Nuggets | UNDER 220 -110 | Premium | 109-105 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Northern Iowa vs Loyola-Chicago | Northern Iowa +11 -110 | Premium | 46-88 | Loss | -110 | Show |
| Memphis vs Tulsa | Memphis -1½ -110 | Premium | 57-58 | Loss | -110 | Show |
| UCF vs Houston | UCF +14 -104 | Premium | 58-75 | Loss | -104 | Show |
| Northeastern vs College of Charleston | College of Charleston +1½ -110 | Premium | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | Show |
| Penn State vs Purdue | Purdue -5 -103 | Premium | 72-80 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Browns vs Chiefs | UNDER 57½ -113 | Premium | 17-22 | Win | 100 | Show |
PICKS IN PROGRESS
HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.5 ppg scored and enter this game on a current 8 game streak of unders. Rinse and repeat here despite of a partially revamped new lineup.
NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 51-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 31-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play UNDER
The New York Knicks delivered a huge victory that felt like it was years in the making on Sunday when they routed the Boston Celtics. But now after playing all out and now in a letdown state and on tired legs as they are on back to back tilts, Im expecting the Magic come out of this with a win. ORLANDO is 26-13 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. ORLANDO is 25-14 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Play on Orlando to cover
The Sharks lost 5-3 last time out to the Arizona Coyotes and will now be out to play a better brand of defensive hockey in a bounce back situation. The same holds true for the St.Louis Blues who were smashed by a 8-0 count last time out vs Colorado. SAN JOSE is 15-1 UNDER after allowing 5 goals or more over the last 2 seasons. Another interesting anomaly has the Under going 10-1 in Blues last 11 Monday tilts.
Play UNDER
Yes, both these sides can light it up , but according to my Totals projection , the number should be closer to 234 , so with a full possession plus avaialble Im recommedning we take an under stance on a public line.
Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games as a favorite.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 4 straight games are 70-32 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 43-19 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play UNDER
HC Popovich has as way of having his teams ready to play top teir opponents, and tonight Im betting the Spurs will primed for the road win vs Portland.
Popovich is 267-221 ATS (+23.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) as the coach of SAN ANTONIO.
Stotts is 69-92 ATS against Southwest division opponents as the coach of PORTLAND
PORTLAND is 8-18 ATS in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons.
NBA Road teams (SAN ANTONIO) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 68-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on San Antonio to cover
Hawks despite of some star talent in their lineup are not a cohesive team, and should not garner this much respect not even against the struggling Timberwolves. Note: Hawks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Hawks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and are also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
NBA Road teams (MINNESOTA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 24-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Minnesota to cover
The Grizzlies have won 4 straight games, but Im betting that with this being their 4th game in less than a week, they will be at a disadvantage vs a Suns side that has the ability to make them work hard here, which makes the young men from Memphis susceptible to a 2nd half meltdown.
Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.Suns are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.
PHOENIX is 15-4 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 4-17 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.
NBA home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are 39-76 L/24 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Phoenix Suns to cover
Chicago was really struggling having lost 4 straight games before last nights road victory vs the Dallas Mavericks, and are fade material here on tired legs despite of Houstons changes of late. The Rockets according to my matchup power rankings are a viable bet in this spot.
Bulls are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.Bulls are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 Monday games.Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 3-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Houston to cover
SERVICE BIO
Experience & Awards
I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years.
My picks have been documented for 20 years. I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.
My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.
I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!
I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.
I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis.
Handicapping Approach
I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.
My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.
Sports Betting Is An Investment
Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures.
Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.
I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.
In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.
I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!
This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!
Money Management
To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.
If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets.
This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.
Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.
1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.
2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.
3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.
4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.
5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.
6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.
These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.
I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.
*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled. These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.
