Bryan Power Premium Picks

10* Under Royals/Twins (7:40 ET): Given the respective season-long placements in the AL Central standings, it should not surprise you to learn that Minnesota has dominated Kansas City in head to head play this season, winning 9 of the 12 matchups. There is a 37.5 game gap between the two entering this series, which will be the final one of the regular season at Target Field. Unfortunately for Twins' fans, it is not very likely that they'll be able to wrap up the division this weekend, even with a sweep (which is not out of the realm of possibility). The individual game prices on the Twins will also be too high for our taste, but there are a number of key factors that have us taking the Under in Thursday's opener. 

Minnesota has already set a new single season record for most home runs hit in a season and is the 1st team ever to have FIVE 30+ HR hitters. But a curious thing about the team is that they score fewer runs per game at home than they do on the road. It's almost a full run per game drop. Last night, they were actually no-hit for 5+ innings in what ended up as a 3-1 loss to the White Sox. They finished the game w/ only three hits. So that's an encouraging sign for Royals' starter Mike Montgomery, who has had his fair share of struggles this season. However, Montgomery does have a 2.77 ERA in three career outings vs. the Twins. He has not faced them in 2019, but did just hold Houston to two runs on five hits in his last outing. Five of his last seven starts have seen Montgomery allow 2 ER or less. 

Kansas City is not a strong offensive team as they rank 28th (out of 30 teams) in runs per game. Last night was another poor effort at the plate as they were shutout and held to four hits in a 1-0 loss at Oakland. It was the 4th time in the L6 games the Royals failed to score more than a single run. Tonight, they face a pitcher who has dominated them throughout his career, that being Kyle Gibson, who is not only 9-5 (3.55 ERA) in 21 career starts vs. KC, but also 2-0 (3.26 ERA) in three starts this season. This will be just the second start for Gibson after a bout w/ ulcerative colitis, which affected his sleep and caused him to lose 10 lbs. He's seen each of his last NINE starts go Over the total, but w/ his past success against the Royals, we'll call for this to be his best outing in awhile. 10* Under Royals/Twins

10* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): So much for home field advantage in these Thursday night NFL games. The road team has pulled an upset each of the first two weeks w/ Green Bay beating Chicago and Tampa Bay beating Carolina. But if an upset were to happen for a third straight time to open the season, this time it would be by the home team. Jacksonville comes in as a short home dog as they are 0-2 on the season following losses to Kansas City and Houston, both of whom were division winners last year. Something else to consider is that the Jags have been swept each of the last two years by the Titans. They will come into this game highly motivated and are our choice. Take the points. 

One of the big mistakes we made last week was overrating Tennessee's Week 1 performance in Cleveland. Sure, the Titans won that game 43-13. But they were only up two points late in the 3Q before the Browns imploded. Tennessee was actually outgained in that contest (346-339), but was fortunate to be +3 in turnovers. They are now +5 in turnovers on the season, but lost LW to the Colts 19-17. Truth be told, we were NOT high on Tennessee this year, but chose to take them last week as it seemed all the stars had aligned w/ the other three AFC South teams all losing in Week 1 and two of them seemingly having serious issues at the QB position. That line of thinking was obviously a mistake. 

Losing Nick Foles to a broken clavicle in Week 1 seemed like a death blow to the Jaguars' 2019 season. But backup Gardner Minshew II seems like he'll be a capable replacement. So far, Minshew has completed almost 70% of his pass attempts and he very nearly pulled off a comeback in Houston last week. (The Jags lost that game 13-12 as HC Doug Marrone elected to go for two and the win instead of kicking the extra point and forcing OT.) Moving forward, Tennessee probably isn't going to be as fortunate w/ turnovers as they've been the first two games. Even though he has asked to be traded, Jags DB Jalen Ramsey is going to play tonight. Don't be surprised if he has a good game and it's the Jags forcing some TO's against often error-prone Titans QB Marcus Mariota. It's a must-win game for the 0-2 Jags Thursday night. We'll back 'em. 10* Jacksonville

10* Over Houston/Tulane (8:00 ET): Suffice to say, most probably wouldn't have banked on Tulane being favored over Houston in this game, let alone by more than a field goal. But the Green Wave have looked strong in both their wins, the first of which we were on as they clobbered FIU 42-14 as just a three-point home favorite in the opener. The big difference right now between them and Houston is that they've faced just one Power 5 opponent (Auburn) while UH has faced two (Oklahoma, Washington State). That is basically the sole reason Tulane comes into this game at 2-1 while Houston is 1-2. We cashed the Cougars in Week 1 as they covered at Oklahoma. They also covered last week vs. Washington State. Both of these teams can claim to have blown out a FCS opponent. It's really a pretty even matchup as Tulane is certainly improved while Houston is better than its record.

Something else the teams have in common is they've gone Under in every game. Well, that comes w/ a caveat. There was no O/U line posted for Tulane's game last week, a 58-6 win over Missouri State. One would think if there had been, the game would have gone Over with that final score. The Green Wave offense is averaging 436 YPG, led by QB Justin McMillan. Since he took over as the starter halfway through last season, this has been a much better football team. They've gone 7-2 SU with the only losses coming to Auburn (24-6) two weeks ago and to ... Houston (48-17) last year. The Green Wave have scored 28 and 38 points in the first halves of their two home games this year. They have five players w/ at least 96 rush yards so far this season. 

Houston had a poor finish to last season (cost Major Applewhite his job), but remember what we said in the analysis for the Oklahoma game. That poor finish was tied to the loss of QB D'Eriq King (injured) for the last two games. Ironically, the injury he suffered (knee) last year came against this Tulane team. Before getting hurt, King accounted for FIFTY touchdowns (36 passing, 14 rushing), which led all of FBS. The bad news for the Cougars is the defense, which has given up 686 yards to Oklahoma, 343 to Prairie View A&M and 489 to Washington State. Both of these offenses can move the ball and score. The O/U lines for the first three Houston games were all 74+ points. The O/U line for LY's meeting was 68.0. So getting a number like this one seems like a real value play. 10* Over Houston/Tulane