Jim Feist Premium Picks

I like the Tampa Bay Rays to win Game 4 of the ALCS over Cleveland because the pitching setup gives Tampa Bay a good chance to even the series. The Rays are expected to start Nick Martinez, who went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA during the regular season, while Cleveland had not named a traditional starter as of Saturday and was expected to piece together a bullpen game. That matters after the Guardians used several of their top relievers to protect Thursday’s 3-2 win.

Tampa Bay also has a strong season-long matchup history against Cleveland. The Rays won five of six regular-season meetings, and their pitching depth was a major reason. Even though Cleveland leads the ALCS 2-1, Tampa Bay has already shown it can keep the Guardians’ offense under control, holding them to one run in Game 2 and only three in Game 3.

The biggest key is Tampa Bay finding a little more offense. The Rays managed only three hits in Game 3 and struck out 13 times, yet they still lost by just one run. If they can make Cleveland’s relievers work harder and get more traffic on the bases, this matchup becomes much more favorable. With the Guardians potentially relying heavily on their bullpen again, Tampa Bay should have multiple chances to break through in the middle and late innings.

There is also urgency on Tampa Bay’s side. Falling behind 3-1 would put the Rays in a major hole, so I expect an aggressive approach from the lineup and a quick hook for Martinez if necessary. Tampa Bay has the deeper pitching options for this spot, and that could be the difference in a close game.

Jim’s Play: 941. Rays

We have a Finals matchup between two of the most stifling defenses remaining in basketball. The Finals opener should be played at a slower pace than most fans are used to seeing with both teams playing in the half court more than in transition.

Golden State finished the regular season with the best defensive rating in the WNBA at 99.1 and Atlanta was third. The defenses have taken that dominance to the playoffs with Atlanta ranking first in postseason defensive efficiency and Golden State right behind in second. The Dream and Valkyries also force turnovers and limit opponents from easy buckets in transition. Attack those two facets and you can turn a possession into a long half-court set where both teams struggle to get good shots deep in the shot clock.

The Valkyries beat the Dream in all three regular-season meetings by the scores of 77-66, 78-75 and 88-83. Two of those three games finished with under 154 points scored. Atlanta shot just 25.3% from three-point range in the season series against Golden State. Golden State has versatile defenders that can switch onto any Atlanta guard and make clean looks from distance difficult to come by.

Add in the injury concern for Atlanta guard Allisha Gray (questionable, hand) heading into Game 1. Gray underwent a minor procedure on her hand Sunday and is averaging 19 points per game this season. She has been outstanding for Atlanta in the playoffs but if she is slowed by the injury or cannot go at all, too much offensive burden is placed on Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard against Golden State’s perimeter defense.I

Game 1 can also lead to a feeling-out process as neither team has to force the issue. The Valkyries are content with slowing the game down and winning with defense, rebounding and good execution. Atlanta counters with great defense of their own during their playoff run. Both teams have players that can protect the paint, led by Angel Reese for Atlanta and Gabby Williams, Veronica Burton and Kiah Stokes for Golden State. Combine those two factors and I expect long scoring droughts and a lot of contested possessions.

Jim’s Play: 605. Atlanta Dream / Golden State Valkyries UNDER

I'm going to go with Ohio State to beat Indiana and cover on Saturday. Both teams are ranked in the top 5 entering this big ten matchup. The Buckeyes come in at 5-1 after beating their last 4 opponents and their offense has been outstanding averaging 42.7 points a game. Coming out of their game vs Maryland they won big 45-16. Quarterback Julian Sayin has been getting better each week and has been throwing the ball very well. He's got an amazing wide receiver in Jeremiah Smith that no team can seem to stop. Last year when they played each other in the Big ten Championship game Smith had 144 yards on the ball and will be very tough to defend this week as well. The Buckeyes want revenge after losing that championship game by 13-10 to Indiana.

The hoosiers come into this game at 6-0 but have dropped some games close lately. They were able to come from behind in the 4th quarter and beat Nebraska 20-17 last Saturday. They had to come back and beat Northwestern by 6 points while being favored by over 20 points. Indiana is 1-5 on the spread this season while Ohio State has covered 4 of their last 6 games. The Buckeyes allow only 13.2 points a game and will have plenty of help stopping Indiana's quarterback Josh Hoover and his great duo of wide receivers Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh. Just keep Ohio State's QB protected from the pass rush and they'll be fine.

The Buckeyes are a more well rounded team and will be able to give Indiana their first loss this season. Sayin and Smith will definitely have some big plays this week and their defense will give them some tough 3rd downs. Ohio State should dominate the second half and come away with a win.

Jim"s Play : 127. Ohio State

I'll take Georgia State to pick up the number vs James Madison on Saturday. Both teams will be battling each other in Harrisonburg for a Sun Belt game. The Georgia State Panthers have been covering all 5 of their games so far this year. They're coming into this game 4-1 and have been a great bet all season long. Last game Georgia State was able to dominate Old Dominion by the score of 42-10. They're averaging around 39.4 points and 468.8 total yards of offense.  QB Cameran Brown has been very good and they're also averaging about 209.8 rushing yards and 259 passing yards. Georgia State will have had a bye week to prepare for this game.

The James Madison Dukes have been unbeaten this season going into this week's game. They were able to beat Georgia Southern last week by the score of 27-24 while being a td favorite. I think Georgia State can give them trouble just like Georgia Southern did. The Panthers have been converting over 50% of their 3rd downs and have only given up 2 sacks all season. This should allow QB Cameran Brown to make big plays against the James Madison defense. They've only given up 19 points per game and have been leading the sun belt in sacks per game. I think James Madison can come out and play at home but I don't think they can win by almost 2 td against a Georgia State team that will be well rested. Should be a fun game between these two Sun Belt teams and stay close until the end of the 4th quarter. I'm going to back the Georgia State Panthers  on Saturday.

Jim's Pick: 157. Georgia State

I will be picking Oregon State to beat and cover against Washington State this Saturday in Corvallis as these rival teams face each other. Oregon State is 4-2 on the year and 6-0 against the spread. Washington State is 1-5 this season which has been pretty poor. Oregon State has won 4 games in a row and they have put up big point totals in each of those games. They have scored 52, 33, 56 and 66 points in those four wins. They came in after beating San Diego State 66-14 and this offense is very impressive right now. Washington State has lost 3 straight and only scored 22 points total in their last two games. That could be an issue against an Oregon State offense that can score quickly.

Oregon State's advantage will come from their pass offense. They have QB Braden Atkinson who has thrown for 2257 passing yards this season and 21 TD with only 2 INTs. He was able to throw for 409 yards and 5 TD last week. With Freshman wide receiver Jesse Legree catching 10 balls for 191 yards and 3 TD. Washington State will be starting a new QB as well. They will turn to Redshirt freshman Owen Eshelman for his first career start. Going up against an Oregon State offense that is on fire could be tough especially away from home. I think Oregon State can take an early lead and force them to chase the game. Which will put more pressure on the young QB.

It is a large spread at around 18 1/2 but Oregon State has covered every game this season. They have also won their last two games by 30 and 52 points. Washington State has covered 4 out of 6 games so the number is not safe. But I believe Oregon State will take control of the game early and be able to pull away with their pass offense. My pick is Oregon State to cover this Saturday.

Jim's Play: 214. Oregon State

I am going to take Kentucky to cover on Saturday night against Oklahoma in Norman. Kentucky comes in ranked 15th and is 5-1 on the season. They have covered 5 out of their 6 games this season which puts them as one of the best ATS teams in the country. Kentucky has come out on top the last four games winning two OT games against South Carolina and LSU both by a score of 35-34. Kenny Minchey has been clutch when its come down to the fourth quarter and Kentucky has been averaging 34.7 points a game. Oklahoma is 3-2 after beating number 1 Texas last week by a score of 27-24. They have only averaged 23 points a game this season. I feel like they are too low scoring to bet them almost a touchdown against a hot Kentucky team. Plus we have the let down Factor we have to look at here also has Oklahoma will be flying high from last week's big win and do for a let down this week.

Kentucky also has been creating turnovers. Oklahoma QB John Mateer has thrown 4 interceptions this season and Kentucky can capitalize on that. They also have some injuries to their offensive line as well. Tackle Michael Fasusi and Guard Eddy Pierre-Louis are both questionables which could open up more pressure on Mateer from the Kentucky defensive front. Kentucky will have to take care of Minchey against Oklahoma's good defense. But they have enough weapons to keep this game close. Oklahoma may slack off a little after their big win over Texas.  Expect a gritty SEC game on Saturday. Kentucky to win outright.

Jim's Play: 193. Kentucky

I'm going with UCLA to beat and cover vs Wisconsin this saturday at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. UCLA is 5-0 and has covered in all of their games so far. Coming into this game the Bruins have some momentum going their way after they traveled up to Oregon last week and were able to come out with a win 17-15. The Bruins have shown that they can outscore teams and out defend teams. Which will be helpful against Wisconsin. UCLA is averaging 39.2 points a game and only allowing 18 points a game. Wisconsin will bring a good defense to this game but I don't think it will be enough to stop UCLA.

UCLA will have to overcome their starting QB Nico Iamaleava being hurt. But I think they can with their backup QB Ty Dieffenbach. He stepped up last week vs Oregon and threw a TD pass to Wayne Knight. Wayne Knight is averaging 7.7 yards per rush which will be hard for Wisconsin to stop. On defense UCLA has taken away 10 int's this season with Ta'Shawn James having 4. With Wisconsin QB Colton Joseph throwing 5 int's this season I believe UCLA can force one and turn the game around.

Wisconsin is 4-1 and have won 4 games in a row. But I don't think they can do it on the road against an undefeated UCLA team. UCLA has the home field advantage and a strong rushing attack. I think UCLA will be able to slow down the game and come out with a win. Pick UCLA - pts to win and cover.

Jim's Play: 186. UCLA

Nebraska should be a good bet to cover on Saturday night as they go on the road to play Oregon. This will be a great Big Ten matchup. Nebraska is 5-1 and lost last week to Indiana who was ranked that week by 20-17. They played very well that game and should give Oregon some trouble on Saturday. They have a physical defense and can run the ball and pass with ease. Nebraska is gaining close to 214 yards per game on the ground. QB Anthony Colandrea can also give you the ball in the air and with his legs. They have also done a great job on 3rd down conversions holding teams to under 20% on 3rd downs.

Oregon has fallen to 3-2 after losing at home to UCLA 17-15 last week. They had 7 turnovers in that game and will also be missing their starting QB Dante Moore. Oregon will have trouble stopping the Nebraska run game and should not be able to keep up with Nebraska's clock management. They should be able to force some turnovers as well and keep this game close until the 4th quarter. I think Nebraska can stay within this point spread and maybe even win outright. Nebraska plus pts is my play for Saturday night.

Jim's Play: 187. Nebraska +7