Jim Feist Premium Picks

Vermont is talented enough to win and cover because this projects to be a “better team, better floor, at home” situation and you’re essentially being told by the market that Maine must play at its ceiling for 40 minutes just to stay within it. Vermont hosts this one at Patrick Gymnasium and is getting played as a double-digit favorite (opening around -13), which is right where I feel like the matchup sits: Vermon tops Maine in regards to half-court offense consistency, defensive baseline, and veteran makeup that should allow them to extend leads instead of leaving opponents in games. Vermont can score inside with a true go-to option in Gus Yalden (17.3 PPG) while also possessing enough backcourt hierarchy to prevent lengthy scoring droughts that underdogs need to overcome to make games competitive. Maine will typically go as their shot-making goes and hope they win the rebounding battle, but that’s a tough formula against this Vermont team that will likely force them to execute in the half court numerous times throughout the game and that’s where VT’s talent/structure advantages come into play. Throw in that this is an ESPN+ game for Vermont and hosting effect and the path to the cover is simple: if Vermont plays a typical, smart brand of basketball they should slowly pull away and turn a first half nail-biter into a comfy lead by the end of the game.

Jim's Play: 306534. Vermont

You could easily justify betting UTEP to outright win and cover in Newark, as this contest is currently betting like a toss-up. But I prefer the Miner side because their avenue to victory is somewhat clearer if they attack the paint and force Delaware to earn their offense. Both Delaware and UTEP sport identical records at 5-11 (1-4 CUSA) and will square off Thursday night at 7 p.m. ET at the Bob Carpenter Center. Delaware is sitting around a -1.5 to 2 point favorite at home, so you’re merely asking UTEP to win a close game, not win by some massive margin. UTEP’s advantage is that they have a number of guys who can drop double-digit scores, and they excel at playing through their bigs: Elijah Jones (13.8 PPG), Jamal West Jr. (12.8), and Kaseem Watson (12.0) gives UTEP options to manufacture points when things slow down and possessions matter late.

Delaware asks a lot of Christian Bliss on both ends, as he’s their leading scorer but also must facilitate for others and play huge minutes (39.1 MPG). That’s perfectly fine, but it does open up Delaware to being exploited on defense: if UTEP doubles Bliss, make him make tough decisions with the ball, and force others to beat them, Delaware could go ice cold offensively. Delaware scores 65.9 points per game on average, so they’re not a team that can survive substantial stretches without scoring. Add it all up and the reason to back UTEP to cover is simple: in a game that’s being treated like a pick’em, UTEP has a number of ways to score in the paint and can exploit a Delaware team that relies on one ball-handler to do just about everything.

Jim's Play: 797. Utep

This is a nice matchup for an Over around 154.5, as Arkansas State plays with pace and scores points while South Alabama’s offensive trademarks (efficiency, free throws) can provide floor coverage during potential droughts. Arkansas State scores 83.3 points per game while ALSO allowing 78.0 points per game per their opponents, which is exactly the defensive profile you look for when conference games turn into shootouts with both squads hitting shots. South Alabama scores right at 74 points per game while shooting 46.9% from the field, so they don’t have to grind down the shot clock to find buckets. Another strong “Over” indicator in this game is free throws. Arkansas State makes 18.6 free throws per game (and South Alabama is good at drawing fouls too) which can help elevate the total late with “clock-stop” points even in the event of one team struggling from beyond the arc. Throw in South Alabama’s defense allows plenty of three-point attempts (teams shoot 35.2%) and Arkansas State makes threes at a high volume (8.6 made per game), and you’ve got a game with the potential for quick scores. With the total sitting in the mid-150s and recent meetings providing at least SOME shootout ability (one game went OVER 95 points last season at 95-78), I feel like the safest way to the Over is Arkansas State playing with pace and South Alabama responding with enough efficiency to keep both teams in the 80s/70s.

Jim's Play: 815. Arkansas State/ S0.Alabama OVER