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Starting pitching sets up Miami Marlins as the play to beat Minnesota Twins Wednesday.  Miami gets Max Meyer (2-0, 2.79 ERA) opposed to Simeon Woods Richardson (0-5, 6.92 ERA). That is a significant pitching advantage. Meyer has also struck out 45 against only 14 walks (1.09 WHIP), while Woods Richardson’s ERA is nearly double after issuing 26 free passes against just 40 strikeouts (1.72 WHIP). Meyer will have some leeway if he continues to throw strikes and keep the Twins’ power hitters off the bases.

Miami also has a solid bounce-back angle. Minnesota’s Bailey Ober threw a gem Tuesday, firing a complete game two-hit shutout. Miami struck out quite frequently and failed to notch a hit until there was one out in the ninth inning. The Marlins don’t face Ober again and Meyer’s whiff rate plays up well against Woods Richardson’s struggles with command.

Throw in that Meyer has not allowed more than two runs in each of his last four outings and Miami has a pitcher who should be able to navigate through the Twins’ lineup efficiently. Miami can control the first five or six innings with Meyer on the mound. Put the pressure on Minnesota to protect a replacement-level starter and use its bullpen before it wants to.

Miami will have success if they are able to put runners on base against Woods Richardson early. Miami’s offense was able to rack up strikeouts Tuesday, but Woods Richardson’s WHIP indicates they should be able to put runners on early and often. Get traffic on base and manufacture some runs against Minnesota and Meyer has a good chance at avoiding a big inning that could decide this game.

Jim's Play: 925. Marlins

Arizona Diamondbacks to beat the Texas Rangers on Wednesday begins with price and matchup. Arizona is being installed as a short underdog. Texas has home field advantage but the starting pitching matchup is pretty hittable on both sides, as Ryne Nelson is listed for Arizona and Kumar Rocker for Texas. Nelson is coming into this one at 1-3 with a 5.64 ERA, while Rocker sits at 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA. With both pitchers struggling early in the season, this game sets up more like a pick ’em than a Rangers favorite.

Arizona has enough offense to take another look. The Diamondbacks have contact and speed to attack Rocker, who has struggled to escape innings without damage. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Gabriel Moreno and Ildemaro Vargas give Arizona different avenues to produce runs and they don’t necessarily have to rely on extra-base hits to do it. If Arizona can get on-base early, they can put Rocker in high-leverage situations and reach the Texas bullpen by the middle innings.

Arizona also flashed some life late in Tuesday’s defeat. The Diamondbacks fell behind big but loaded the bases with nobody out in the ninth and scored three runs to make it 7-4. That rally at the end of Tuesday matters because Arizona can take momentum into Wednesday’s finale. Even in defeat, Arizona forced Texas to use multiple relievers and showed they can put pressure on the Rangers late in games.

Texas may also have a potential lineup question with Brandon Nimmo being day-to-day after leaving Tuesday’s game early with a left ankle sprain. Nimmo was 3-for-4 with a walk before departing Tuesday so if Nimmo is limited or out of the lineup that takes away a potential table-setter from Texas’ lineup.

Arizona’s biggest advantage may come with runners in scoring position. One scouting report on the Diamondbacks shows they are batting .553 with RISP, which leads MLB. Stats like that can change the course of a game like this, especially against a Texas starter who hasn’t dominated yet and against a Rangers team that can struggle when they fall behind early.

Arizona just needs to make Rocker work, get out to an early lead and let their big hitters drive in runs when guys get on base. Nelson and Rocker both have ERAs over 5.00, so the Arizona Diamondbacks’ offense gives them plenty of upside to win this game as a plus-money road dog.

Jim's Play: 927. Diamondbacks

Opening momentum is where this Mets vs. Tigers matchup begins on Wednesday. New York jumped on Detroit for 10 runs on Tuesday, getting contributions across the lineup. There was also a big debut from A.J. Ewing, who went 2-for-4 with two runs scored, two RBIs, three walks, a triple and a stolen base. Anytime you see that kind of production from a rookie, it can spark a struggling offense into the next game.

Pitching also lines up nicely for the Mets. The Tigers are rolling with Framber Valdez, who projects to be around 2-2 with either a 4.54 or 4.57 ERA. New York counters with Christian Scott, who has looked better on paper at 0-0 with a 3.28 ERA. Valdez may have more name value, but he is working his way back from a five-game suspension, which makes his timing a little questionable. Scott has rebounded from a rough first start and has flashed enough strikeout stuff to keep Detroit from having long ball games.

We also cannot ignore that Detroit has just lost six of seven games. Tuesday’s defeat was another sloppy game for the Tigers offense. They jumped out to a 2-0 lead early, but New York put together at least one big inning in each half of the game to pull away. Detroit’s pitching could not prevent the Mets from manufacturing runs.

The Mets are dealing with injuries of their own, as Francisco Alvarez was pulled from Tuesday’s game due to an injury to his right knee. He may miss time, and other bats have been banged up for New York as well. But as we saw against Detroit, the Mets can manufacture runs even if they are not at full strength. Juan Soto and Carson Benge helped give New York enough balance from the heart of the lineup, and if Ewing continues to hit like he did Tuesday, New York another athletic hitter who can beat out infield hits and work the opposing defense.

When a matchup is this close, I’ll take the better team at home who has looked cleaner at the plate as of late. If Scott can give New York five quality innings and the Mets lineup can force Valdez to work early, the Mets have the easier path to victory in my eyes.

Jim's Play: 924. Mets

Value is the first reason I like the Tampa Bay Rays to beat the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday. Toronto entered Wednesday as a favorite because Dylan Cease has better starting-pitching numbers than Griffin Jax, but Tampa Bay has been better in just about every way you can measure it during this series.

The Rays are now 5-0 against Toronto this season and won 16 of their last 18 games, including Tuesday’s 7-6 extra-inning victory after blowing a five-run lead.

Perhaps the biggest edge Tampa Bay holds over Toronto comes in confidence and series control. Tampa Bay won the first two games in Toronto by scores of 8-5 on Monday and 7-6 on Tuesday while pounding Toronto’s defense, bullpen and late-game execution. Tampa Bay’s bats again tested Toronto on Tuesday and while the game escaped in the seventh inning, the Rays answered in extra innings as Taylor Walls drove in the go-ahead run and Jonathan Aranda added the insurance sacrifice fly.

Toronto boasts the more attractive starter on paper in Cease, who is 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA. However, the Rays have played like profitable underdogs when Jax takes the mound. Tampa Bay won both games this season in which Jax started as a money-line underdog. That’s notable because Tampa Bay does not need Jax to overpower Toronto. Tampa Bay needs Jax to keep the Rays within striking distance for four or five innings before its lineup and bullpen depth take over late.

The Rays’ lineup has also swung hot into this series. Jonathan Aranda is a major run producer in this series so far, Richie Palacios and Taylor Walls have produced big hits and Tampa Bay’s speed/contact approach forces Toronto to play under pressure all game. Toronto has more home run threats, but Tampa Bay is winning with a better all-around offensive game: traffic on the bases, aggressive baserunning, situational hitting and enough thump to capitalize on mistakes.

Tampa Bay’s bullpen and late-game mojo also leans its way. Tampa Bay received a perfect ninth from Ian Seymour on Tuesday, yet still managed to close the game out in the 10th. Toronto threw everything it had just to mount a comeback from 5-0, only to still lose the game. Losses like that are frustrating at any time, but it could be deflating losing to a team that has now beaten you five consecutive times this season.

Toronto is good. Cease gives them a chance to win every time he takes the mound. But Tampa Bay has better form right now, a head-to-head edge and confidence if the game is close late. Tampa Bay is the underdog here and underdogs have more value on the board.

Jim's Play: 915. TB Rays

Opening the case for Detroit begins with home court. The series stands tied at 2-2, so Game 5 returns to Detroit where the Pistons have successfully covered the floor twice in this series. The Pistons also should enjoy a significant bounce-back factor heading into Game 5. Detroit fell in Cleveland 112-103, but that contest swung on a massive second-half outburst by Donovan Mitchell. The Cavaliers wing scored 43 points on 39 points after the break. Cleveland also got a major free-throw discrepancy, as Mitchell alone attempted more free throws than the entire Pistons team. Expecting that to happen again, especially at Little Caesars Arena, would be folly.

Arguably the biggest reason to back Detroit on Wednesday though is Cade Cunningham. Detroit has relied on their rookie all postseason and at home I trust him to control the tempo of this game. Get downhill, attack the rim, make Cleveland’s guards work, and allow Detroit’s other weapons to beat you.

Detroit does not need to blow Cleveland out to cover the spread. The Pistons merely need to win the possession game, avoid fouling, and limit the Cavs easy transition baskets.

Yes the Cavaliers still have Donovan Mitchell and he has been incredible, but Cleveland has been forcing him to do way too much for far too long. Mitchell has scored over 27.5 points in each of the last three games and against Detroit’s defense Cleveland has been far too Mitchell-heavy offensively. Detroit making him work for his shots and getting contributions from elsewhere on the road gives them the better cover profile.

We are set for the swing game of the series and Detroit has the favorable setup. Home floor, coming off a disappointing loss in which they were blown out, a short spread, and a defensive identity that attacks the basket without fouling and forcing opponents into jumpers. If Cunningham can dictate pace and Detroit keeps Mitchell away from the charity stripe, Detroit should cover with a nice chance to win outright as well.

Jim's Play: 518. Pistons