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I like Wisconsin here on Saturday in this Big 10 matchup against  Michigan.  Michigan is around a 12.5-point favorite in Chicago, but Wisconsin beat the Wolverines 86-84 in the regular-season meeting on January 10. When an underdog has already shown it can win the matchup outright, taking that many points on a neutral floor has real value.

Another reason to like the Badgers is their current offensive form. Wisconsin just beat Illinois 91-88 in overtime on Friday, and the guard duo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell combined for 69 points. Reuters noted Wisconsin erased a 15-point first-half deficit and attacked the paint well enough to survive even while shooting just 10-for-41 from three, which says this team can still score and compete when it is not even shooting its best.

There is also a motivation and matchup angle. Michigan is 30-2 and clearly the top seed, but the Wolverines did not exactly cruise in their quarterfinal either, needing a late push to beat Ohio State 71-67. That supports the idea that Michigan is more likely to win than dominate, especially against a Wisconsin team that has already shown it can hang with elite competition and is trying to reach a third straight Big Ten tournament title game.

Wisconsin +12.5 makes sense because the Badgers already beat them once, their guards are playing at a high level, and that is a lot of points for a neutral-floor semifinal between two proven Big Ten teams.

Jim's Play:  609. Wisconsin

UCLA has a solid case to cover because the number is pretty generous for a semifinal between teams that already played a tight game. Purdue is around a 7.5-point favorite in Chicago, but UCLA beat the Boilermakers 69-67 on January 20, so the Bruins have already shown they can handle this matchup and keep it close.

Another reason to like UCLA is that the Bruins are coming in with momentum after knocking off Michigan State 88-84 in the quarterfinals. Even more impressive, they did it while playing short-handed after Tyler Bilodeau left in the first half with a right leg injury. That kind of resilience matters in March, especially for an underdog catching multiple possessions.

There is also a value angle in the spread itself. Purdue at 25-8 and UCLA at 23-10, with both teams finishing 15-7 in Big Ten play, so the gap between them is not huge on paper. In that kind of matchup, getting more than two possessions with UCLA on a neutral floor is attractive.

Purdue looked sharp in its 74-58 win over Nebraska, but that was also a game where the Boilermakers shot well from deep and controlled things from the start. It is fair to expect a tougher, tighter game against a UCLA team that already beat them once and has the kind of defensive discipline to make favorites work in the half court.

My read is that Purdue may still be the more likely winner, but UCLA +7.5 makes sense because the Bruins already proved they can beat this team, the records are close, and semifinal games between familiar opponents often stay tighter than the line suggests.

Jim's Play:  612. UCLA

The best reason to side with the under may just be that Saint Joe’s and VCU both played in tournaments games as their last outings. The posted total is about 143, and both Davidson-Saint Joe’s and Duquesne-VCU finished with under 140 combined points. Saint Joe’s won 70-58 vs. Davidson on Friday (128 combined points), and VCU won 71-66 vs. Duquesne (137). Both teams just went through the grind of tighter, more deliberate tournament play that typically leads to lower scoring.

I also like the under due to this being a rematch of a regular season meeting on January 19 that finished with VCU’s 79-72 win and total of 151. However, that game was played on VCU’s home court and in a typical regular-season context. Saturday is neutral floor in Pittsburgh and an Atlantic 10 semifinal, so there is more incentive for both coaches to slow things down and limit their rotation. Possessions should be more valuable in this game.

The fact that both teams are pretty good doesn’t hurt the under either. VCU comes in at 25-7 and Saint Joe’s is 22-10, so there is no bad team expected to get blown out and let it all hang out here. Saint Joe’s just held Davidson to 58 points, while VCU held Duquesne to 66. Both defenses should be in form.

Take the UNDER here on Saturday.

Jim's Play: Take: 607. Saint Joe's/ VCU UNDER

Atlanta is firmly in the playoff mix and significantly more efficient offensively than Milwaukee, which has fallen to 27–38 with a negative scoring margin and a defense allowing 115.9 points per game . The Hawks’ pace and shot creation give them a clear edge at home.

Jim's FREE Play: 550. Hawks -8 (12:10 PT / 3:10 ET)

I like the Denver Nuggets to cover the spread at the LA Lakers on Saturday night.  The Nuggets enter with momentum after an incredible comeback victory and they still boast the best player in this game. Denver clawed its way back from down 20 on Thursday night to defeat San Antonio 136-131 behind 39 points from Jamal Murray and a 31-point, 20 rebound, 12 assist triple-double from Nikola Jokic. That type of elite shot creation and half-court offense travels, especially in a road game of this magnitude.

Denver also gets a slight edge due to the way the Lakers won on Thursday. Los Angeles defeated Chicago 142-130 behind 51 points from Luka Doncic, but the Lakers also gave up 130 points and Chicago shot 53.7% from the floor. Chicago was good, but Los Angeles wasn’t exactly stout defensively which is a dangerous recipe against Denver and Joki?.

Denver may even hold an availability advantage here. Denver’s official NBA injury report from Friday night listed Michael Porter Jr. (knee) as doubtful, but Lakers had multiple players on their injury report in public pregame reports from Saturday. At the very least, this is one where the lineups matter, but Denver has shown the ability to generate top-notch offense from Murray and Jokic even when they aren’t at full strength.

My best bet prediction is on Denver simply because: Nikola Jokic is the most reliable player in basketball, Murray is coming off a monster game, and the Lakers defense did not look good Thursday night. Denver has the stars and experience to keep you inside the number if it becomes a possession by possession battle.

Jim's Play: 557. Nuggets