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Game 7 comes back to the place where Golden State has been hardest to beat, and that is the core of the Valkyries here on Saturday at 5:00 p.m. PT at Chase Center in San Francisco. The first Game 7 in WNBA Finals history tips off with the series tied 3-3 and Golden State listed as a small favorite. The Valkyries went 17-5 at home in the regular season and are 6-1 at home in the playoffs, with their only home playoff loss coming in Game 2 against Atlanta.

Yes, Game 6 went badly, and there is no point pretending otherwise: Atlanta won 80-69 after leading 32-15 in the first quarter, hitting 13 threes while Golden State shot just 31.4% from the field. But that was in Atlanta, and the Valkyries still won the second half and kept chipping away behind Gabby Williams, who scored 26 points including 20 after halftime, with Tiffany Hayes adding 15. Golden State does not need a scoring explosion to win this game, it needs its defense to travel back home with it. Both teams were top four in defensive rating in the regular season, and Golden State has not scored more than 71 points in any Finals game, so this is a grind-it-out game, and the Valkyries are built for exactly that at home, with Kiah Stokes protecting the paint after swatting at least three shots in each of the first five games of the series.

Atlanta is also thinner than it was at the start of the series. Brionna Jones is out for the season with a leg injury, and Te-Hina Paopao, who was ruled out for Game 6, is listed as questionable again for Game 7 with a leg injury, so her status is still not settled heading into tip. Golden State, by contrast, has no one else on its injury report beyond Iliana Rupert's season-long absence. Expect a slower, more physical game than Game 6, a better start from Golden State in front of its home crowd, and Williams and Hayes to carry just enough offense for Golden State to win its first title.

Jim's Play: 606. GS Valkyries

Clemson does not need to fix its offense to cover this number, it just needs its defense to keep this a low-scoring, ugly rivalry game. Clemson visits Florida State as a underdog. Clemson is 4-3, Florida State is 3-4, and both teams are desperate, but the matchup leans toward a close game, not a Florida State rout.

Clemson's defense is the case. The Tigers allow just 21.3 points per game and 317.0 yards per game, rank fourth in the ACC in total defense, and have recorded 20 sacks, led by Will Heldt with six. They held Virginia Tech to just 234 total yards and 70 rushing yards last week in a 20-16 loss, and they have allowed no more than 16 points in three of their last four games. That defense now faces a Florida State team that has lost its last two games, gave up over 40 points in each of them, and just lost leading rusher Ousmane Kromah for the season to an ankle fracture and dislocation. Florida State is also shorthanded on defense, with multiple defensive backs and linebackers out, including Quindarrius Jones, Karson Hobbs, Jamari Howard, Blake Nichelson, and Izayia Williams.

Clemson's offense is the obvious worry, averaging just 21.4 points per game with only two touchdown passes all season from freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds, but Gideon Davidson has 492 rushing yards and five touchdowns at 5.3 yards per carry, and Clemson does not need a shootout here. Florida State quarterback Ashton Daniels is dangerous with 23 total touchdowns, but Clemson's front, which has allowed no rushing touchdowns in its last two games, can force Florida State to win through the air in a tight game. Clemson has also won nine of the last ten meetings with Florida State, including 24-10 in 2025, so this is not a matchup that has intimidated the Tigers. Expect a defensive, field-position game that stays within a field goal either way.

Illinois visits Maryland as a small favotite. Illinois is 4-3 and 2-2 in the Big Ten after back-to-back conference wins, a 38-37 overtime win at Michigan State and a 21-10 win over Oregon in which Illinois scored the final 21 points and shut Oregon out in the second half. Maryland is 2-5 and 0-4 in the Big Ten, has lost five straight, and is now under interim head coach Aazaar Abdul-Rahim after Mike Locksley's departure, which is a difficult setup against a team playing for bowl eligibility.

The on-field matchup also favors Illinois, even with quarterback uncertainty. Katin Houser was upgraded to questionable Friday after hand surgery, but coach Bret Bielema had said Thursday he would not play, so this case does not depend on Houser returning. Freshman Michael Clayton II already relieved Houser in the Michigan State win and started the Oregon win, and Illinois ran for 225 yards at 5.8 yards per carry against Oregon, with Aidan Laughery gaining 123 yards and a touchdown. That run game matches up against a Maryland defense allowing 33.3 points per game, ranked 128th nationally, while Illinois averages 30.3 points and 161.4 rushing yards per game.

Maryland can move the ball, but its defense has not been able to get stops when it matters, and Illinois' physical, run-first approach is built to control a road game like this and shorten Maryland's chances to rally. Expect Illinois to lean on Laughery and Clayton, win the second half again, and pull away late again.

Jim's Play : ILLINOIS

No. 25 Wisconsin visits Iowa for the Heartland Trophy, with previews listing Wisconsin from +1.5 to +3.5, so an outright win covers that whole range. Both teams are 5-2, and the total is only around 36.5, which means every possession, turnover, and field-position swing matters more than usual. Wisconsin just beat No. 16 USC 24-7 while holding the Trojans to negative rushing yardage, and that defensive form is the foundation here.

The bigger edge is what Iowa is missing. Starting running back Kamari Moulton is out for the season after suffering an injury against Minnesota, and Moulton led Iowa with 541 rushing yards and four touchdowns at 6.3 yards per carry. His replacement, Xavier Williams, has only 187 yards on 25 carries, so Iowa's identity as a run-first team is thinner against a Wisconsin defense allowing just 15.3 points and 96.6 rushing yards per game. Iowa's offense has also been sporadic, scoring 20 or fewer points in three of its previous four games, and it just lost 13-10 to Minnesota despite outgaining the Golden Gophers, with four turnovers costing it the game.

Wisconsin is not perfectly healthy, with guard Barrett Nelson doubtful and safety Marvin Burks questionable, but running back Darrion Dupree and receiver Malachi Coleman are probable to return, and quarterback Colton Joseph does not need to win a shootout here. If Wisconsin's defense, led by Sebastian Cheeks after his 2.5-sack game against USC, keeps Iowa's reshuffled run game in check and forces another mistake or two, the Badgers can steal a tight, ugly road win.

Jim's Play: 201. Wisconsin

No. 22 Arizona visits No. 13 Texas Tech, with Arizona getting 3.5 points. Both teams are 6-1 and 3-1 in the Big 12, but they are trending in opposite directions: Arizona has won five straight, scoring at least 34 points in each of those five games, including a 39-3 rout of Iowa State last week, while Texas Tech just took its first loss, 37-24 at Cincinnati.

Noah Fifita is the clearest edge in the game. He has thrown for 2,064 yards with 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions while completing 74.2% of his passes, and Isaiah Mizell has 493 receiving yards and five touchdowns as his top target. That passing game matches up against a Texas Tech defense allowing 266.1 passing yards per game, ranked 126th nationally, even though the Red Raiders have 13 interceptions. Texas Tech quarterback Will Hammond, by contrast, has six touchdown passes against six interceptions, threw an interception and fumbled in the first half at Cincinnati, and backup Thomas Castellanos could see more snaps, which is not the kind of stability you want against an Arizona defense with 24 sacks, sixth nationally.

Arizona's defense also travels: it allows just 314.9 yards per game, fifth in the Big 12, and 17 Wildcats have at least a half-sack, so pressure comes from everywhere, not just one edge rusher. Texas Tech's run game with J'Koby Williams is real, but Arizona has held opponents under 110 rushing yards per game, and the Red Raiders' pass defense was just exposed for four touchdowns by Cincinnati. Expect Fifita to exploit that secondary, Arizona's tempo to wear Texas Tech down, and the Wildcats to win a high-level Big 12 shootout outright.

Jim's Play: 171. Arizona

This one is all about the quarterback room, and Colorado gets Kansas State at the perfect time. Kansas State is 4-3, but it has lost three of its last four, and it will now start its third different quarterback in three weeks. Avery Johnson is out for a second straight game, and backup Jacob Knuth, who started last week's 28-17 loss at Arizona State, has now also been ruled out. That leaves Blake Barnett or Dillon Duff, neither of whom has established himself as a college starter, walking into Boulder on Halloween.

That matters even more because Johnson is not just Kansas State's passer, he is its most dangerous runner, leading the team with 462 rushing yards on 51 carries. Without him, the Wildcats lose the dual-threat element that makes their 217.6 rushing yards per game, 14th nationally, so hard to defend, and Colorado can load up on the run and force an inexperienced quarterback to win through the air. Kansas State's offense also has to deal with a Colorado crowd that has historically been a problem for the Wildcats, as Colorado is 28-6 all-time against Kansas State in Boulder.

Colorado's own record is ugly at 2-5 and 0-4 in the Big 12 after five straight losses, but the matchup gives Isaac Wilson a path. Wilson threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns at Oklahoma State, and Joseph Williams has 46 catches for 643 yards and five touchdowns, including nine for 135 in that game. Kansas State's pass defense is elite at 147.1 yards allowed per game, but its run defense is just 93rd at 158.1 yards allowed, and it has allowed 204.8 rushing yards per game against Big 12 opponents, so Colorado does not have to win this through the air alone. With Kansas State breaking in a third-string quarterback on the road, Colorado's defense finally gets a break, and the Buffaloes get their first Big 12 win.

Jim's Play ; 180. Colorado

Georgia should be angry, rested, and too complete for Florida in this rivalry game, which moves indoors this year, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game is not in Jacksonville this year because of renovations at EverBank Stadium, but the matchup still favors the Bulldogs. Georgia is 6-1 and coming off a bye after its 27-24 loss to Auburn, while Florida is 5-2 and trying to break a five-game losing streak against Georgia.

The quarterback and defensive gaps are the story. Gunner Stockton has completed 74.1% of his passes for 1,570 yards and 16 touchdowns against four interceptions, and Georgia averages nearly 198 rushing yards per game to go with that passing efficiency. Florida's defense allows 28.3 points per game and 255.0 passing yards per game, while Georgia's defense allows just 15.9 points per game. Florida's quarterbacks are also both banged up: Aaron Philo, who started the first six games, hurt his shoulder, and Tramell Jones Jr., who won his first start at Texas with 155 yards and two touchdowns, was also dealing with an injury, though both were upgraded to probable on Friday's report. Probable is not the same as healthy, and Georgia's pass rush, which had 22 sacks through its first six games, should make life difficult for whichever Gator is under center.

Florida can score, averaging 39.6 points per game, and Jadan Baugh is a threat, but this is a step up in class against a Georgia team that ranks third in the SEC in total defense while Florida ranks 13th. Georgia is also 5-2 against the spread this season and has covered in seven of eight games against ranked teams in October as a favorite. Expect Stockton to pick apart the Florida secondary, Georgia to control the line of scrimmage, and the Bulldogs to pull away in the second half.

Jim's Play ; 128. Georgia

Ohio State's defense is the reason this number is still coverable, even on the road with a new quarterback. No. 2 Ohio State visits USC, with the Buckeyes listed between -6.5 and -7.. Ohio State is 6-1 and 4-0 in the Big Ten on a five-game winning streak since its loss to Texas, while USC is 6-2 and coming off a stunning 24-7 loss at Wisconsin in which the Trojans managed only 241 total yards and finished with minus-17 rushing yards.

Yes, the quarterback situation is the obvious question: Julian Sayin is out indefinitely with a throwing-arm injury, and Ryan Day had not announced whether freshman Luke Fahey or sophomore Tavien St. Clair will start. But Ohio State does not need its new quarterback to carry the game, because the supporting cast is elite and the defense is the best unit on the field. The Buckeyes allow just 13.4 points and 264.3 yards per game, including only 171.4 passing yards per game, while USC allows 25.0 points and 331.3 yards per game. Jeremiah Smith has 52 catches for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns, and Bo Jackson leads the run game with 516 rushing yards, so Ohio State can lean on the run, use Smith on high-percentage throws, and let its defense dictate the game.

USC's Jayden Maiava has thrown for 2,302 yards and 19 touchdowns, but he threw two interceptions at Wisconsin and his passer rating under pressure dropped sharply in that game, which is a bad sign against an Ohio State front that just held Indiana to 73 rushing yards in a 19-15 win. USC's offensive line was exposed at Wisconsin, and now it faces an even tougher test, while King Miller faces a run defense allowing only 92.9 yards per game. Expect Ohio State to control the clock, force Maiava into mistakes, and cover the spread.

Jim's Play:189. Ohio State

Why I like Miami Florida on Saturday against North Carolina. The Miami case is straightforward: the No. 1 team in the country is simply on a different level right now. Miami is 7-0 and 5-0 in the ACC, while North Carolina is 4-3 and coming off a 31-30 overtime loss to Syracuse.

The offensive gap is enormous. Miami leads the nation in total offense at 551.9 yards per game and scores 49.0 points per game, while North Carolina averages just 24.4 points per game. Quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for 2,151 yards with 22 touchdowns and only one interception while completing 81.4% of his passes, and Malachi Toney has 66 catches for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns, including a record 16 catches for 194 yards and three touchdowns against Pittsburgh last week. Miami has scored at least 41 points in four straight games, including a 52-23 win over Pittsburgh and a 41-13 win at Clemson, and it is 3-0 on the road. North Carolina's defense allows 20.9 points per game, but it gives up 373 yards per game and allows opponents to convert 43.1% on third down, which is a problem against a Miami team converting 54.5% of its third downs.

Miami's defense also takes away North Carolina's easiest path to staying close. The Hurricanes lead the nation in rushing defense, allowing just 60.0 yards per game, while North Carolina averages only 114 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has thrown for 1,531 yards and 11 touchdowns, but he will have to win through the air against a Miami team that rarely gives away possessions, with Mensah throwing just one interception in seven games. North Carolina is also shorthanded, with starting cornerback Tre Miller and several defensive linemen out, plus safety Peyton Waters and two starting offensive linemen questionable. Expect Miami to score early, keep the pressure on, and pull away.

Jim's Play: 141. Miami florida