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Pitching is by far my favorite reason to back Pittsburgh as Ashcraft will toe the rubber for the Pirates against Yusei Kikuchi. Braxton Ashcraft (14-5, 3.59 ERA) has been lights out all year whereas Kikuchi is just getting off the IL and has struggled mightily this season with a 0-5 record and a 5.65 ERA. Pittsburgh is 16-4 in Ashcraft's 20 starts as a moneyline favorite this season. In comparison, the Angels are just 1-5 when Kikuchi takes the mound as an underdog.

Ashcraft has actually been on fire lately allowing only five earned runs in his last 28 innings pitched. Over his last four starts he tossed a complete game three-hitter against Miami and seven scoreless plus eight innings against Detroit. Ashcraft posted a 2.13 ERA last month so he should help Pittsburgh limit another Angels team that hasn't shown it can hit against right-handed pitching.

The Angels will counter with Kikuchi who hasn't pitched in a month and is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA since returning from the injured list. Kikuchi also has a season ERA of 7.56 on the road which is simply dreadful. Pittsburgh's projected lineup has also mashed lefties this season posting a 105 wRC+ against southpaws and this projected lineup has a 128 wRC+ at home.

The Angels offense struggles are another huge reason for me to lay the run and a half. Los Angeles failed to muster more than one run on Friday losing 1-0 on four hits. The Angels have now lost four straight games and Pittsburgh has won five out of its last six. Getting Konnor Griffin back from the injured list only adds another speedy hitter with on-base ability to the top of the Pirates’ lineup.

I will lay the Run Line here on Saturday with the Bucs in what I fully expect to be a run away rout.

Jim's Play: 976. Pirates -1.5 Runs

I'm taking the Blue Jays to win this one on Saturday. While the Max Scherzer-Seth Lugo starting matchup may seem like an iffy play for Toronto on paper considering Scherzer has a 6.16 ERA, you have to think his latest start was somewhat of a turning point. Scherzer held Seattle shut out for seven innings while allowing only one hit and striking out a season-high 10 batters in Toronto's 7-0 win.

On the other hand, Lugo has gone in the complete opposite direction as of late. He did have success against Toronto back on Aug. 25, surrendering one run over five innings, but he's been terrible otherwise. The right-hander has a 7.18 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last seven starts and Cleveland battered him for nine runs on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings his most recent outing.

Toronto's lineup should also have a chip on their shoulder as they just faced Lugo less than two weeks ago. They should have a fresh eye on video when it comes to his pitch mix and game approach. The Blue Jays come into Saturday on a roll as they crushed Kansas City 9-2 on Friday night with contributions from across the lineup (Alejandro Kirk, Ernie Clement, George Springer, etc.). Toronto has now won six of its last seven contests.

Toronto getting back to .500 at 71-71 to stay within a half-game of the final AL Wild Card spot should also provide some motivation while Kansas City fell to 63-79 with their loss on Friday. This is must-win playoff-type mode for every game the Blue Jays play from here on out.

Kansas City does have some good bats in Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, but if Scherzer pitches anywhere near how he did against Seattle, I like Toronto’s ceiling in this game much more. Plus, Lugo has been anything but dependable lately, so the Blue Jays have a chance to shorten this game by getting to the Kansas City bullpen early.

Jim's Play: 969. Blue Jays

I like Cubs-Marlins UNDER 8 runs on Saturday. The starting-pitching matchup of Javier Assad against Ryan Gusto gives this game a good chance to stay quiet through the first five or six innings. Assad enters 6-1 with a 3.46 ERA, while Gusto carries a 3.86 ERA.

Gusto is the biggest reason I like the Under. He has quietly been pitching his best baseball of the season. Over his last three starts, he has allowed just one earned run in 14 innings, including 5/3 scoreless against Boston and four scoreless against Washington before allowing one run in the fifth. For August overall, Gusto posted just six earned runs across 28 1/3 innings.

Assad has also been effective when used for extended innings. He owns a 1.10 WHIP, and over his last six major-league appearances he allowed only four earned runs across 21 innings. His ability to limit baserunners is particularly useful against a Miami lineup that was held to one run and only three hits through six innings in Friday's 6-1 loss.

Friday's opener was also much lower scoring than the 6-1 final suggests for most of the night. It was only 1-0 through five innings, and Chicago broke the game open largely because Miami relievers issued four walks during the sixth and seventh innings. The starting pitchers combined to allow only one run through the first five. That is important because Saturday gives Miami another starter in Gusto who has been in excellent form.

Miami's lineup has been inconsistent, while Saturday afternoon at Loan Depot park removes the type of weather conditions that can suddenly turn a total into a slugfest. If Gusto can hold Chicago around three or four runs and Assad keeps Miami in the two-to-three range, eight runs becomes a difficult number to reach.

Jim's Play: 953. Cubs/Marlins UNDER

I like the Cleveland Guardians to beat the Detroit Tigers on Saturday, starting with a strong pitching advantage. Cleveland sends Parker Messick, who is 11-8 with a 2.46 ERA and 161 strikeouts, against Detroit's Framber Valdez, who enters 8-10 with a 4.36 ERA.

Messick has been especially sharp lately. He has allowed only six earned runs over his last five starts, and in his most recent outing he held Kansas City to one run over six innings in an 11-1 Cleveland win. He also faced Detroit on August 13 and allowed only two runs and three hits in 5 2/3 innings.

Valdez has been much less consistent. He gave up three runs over six innings against the Dodgers in his last start, but his recent stretch includes a 5.71 ERA over three starts, and Cleveland already scored four runs against him in 5 1/3 innings on August 12.

Momentum also favors Cleveland. The Guardians swept Friday's doubleheader against Detroit, winning 7-6 and 4-3, both in walk-off fashion. Cleveland is now 72-70, while Detroit has dropped to 64-77. The Guardians also entered this series having dominated the season matchup, and Detroit’s offense and bullpen have ranked near the bottom of MLB over the past month.

Cleveland also has much more at stake. The Guardians currently hold the final American League Wild Card position, while Detroit's postseason chances are fading. With Messick pitching at an elite level, Cleveland at home, and the Guardians carrying the momentum from Friday’s sweep, I like them to make it three straight over the Tigers.

Jim's Play: 964. Guardians

I like UCLA to win and cover the short spread here on Saturday.  The Bruins have the more proven quarterback in Nico Iamaleava, and new head coach Bob Chesney brings a strong winning background after taking James Madison to the College Football Playoff last season. UCLA also added 45 transfers, including explosive running back Wayne Knight, who produced 2,039 all-purpose yards in 2025.

Cal has talent, particularly at quarterback, but it is also debuting a new head coach and rebuilt roster. In what should be a close rivalry game, I give UCLA the edge in quarterback experience, offensive versatility and coaching track record.

Jim's Play: UCLA

I like Tennessee State +47.5 against Georgia on Saturday. There is obviously an enormous talent gap here, but once a spread gets close to seven touchdowns, the question becomes less about whether Georgia dominates and more about whether the Bulldogs have any incentive to keep scoring deep into the second half.

Tennessee State already has a game under its belt, losing 26-24 to Jackson State last week. The Tigers generated 354 total yards, including 265 through the air, which at least gives them a functioning passing game capable of producing a touchdown or a couple of scoring drives. That is important when you're catching nearly 50 points.

Georgia, meanwhile, is opening its season and will likely use this game to evaluate a large number of players. Kirby Smart has historically been willing to get starters out once these mismatches are under control rather than chasing a massive final margin. College Football News specifically noted that Georgia often doesn't play a full 60 minutes with its starters in games like this and pointed out that the Bulldogs were only up 14-3 at halftime against Austin Peay last season.

The Bulldogs also have several offensive details to sort through. Six of their top seven pass catchers from last season are gone, so even with Gunner Stockton returning, Georgia will be breaking in a new receiving rotation. That makes this feel more like a tune-up game than one in which the Bulldogs need to operate at maximum tempo for four quarters.

Georgia should win comfortably, but this is simply too many points for me to lay in a season opener against a Tennessee State team that has already played and showed it can move the football.

Jim's Play: 017 I like Tennessee State +47.5 against Georgia on Saturday. There is obviously an enormous talent gap here, but once a spread gets close to seven touchdowns, the question becomes less about whether Georgia dominates and more about whether the Bulldogs have any incentive to keep scoring deep into the second half.

Tennessee State already has a game under its belt, losing 26-24 to Jackson State last week. The Tigers generated 354 total yards, including 265 through the air, which at least gives them a functioning passing game capable of producing a touchdown or a couple of scoring drives. That is important when you're catching nearly 50 points.

Georgia, meanwhile, is opening its season and will likely use this game to evaluate a large number of players. Kirby Smart has historically been willing to get starters out once these mismatches are under control rather than chasing a massive final margin. College Football News specifically noted that Georgia often doesn't play a full 60 minutes with its starters in games like this and pointed out that the Bulldogs were only up 14-3 at halftime against Austin Peay last season.

The Bulldogs also have several offensive details to sort through. Six of their top seven pass catchers from last season are gone, so even with Gunner Stockton returning, Georgia will be breaking in a new receiving rotation. That makes this feel more like a tune-up game than one in which the Bulldogs need to operate at maximum tempo for four quarters.

Georgia should win comfortably, but this is simply too many points for me to lay in a season opener against a Tennessee State team that has already played and showed it can move the football.

Jim's Play: 017 Tennsssee State

This is technically an FCS-versus-Big Ten matchup, but South Dakota State isn't your normal FCS opponent. The Jackrabbits rank No. 2 in the FCS polls, have qualified for the playoffs in 14 consecutive seasons and won back-to-back national championships in 2022 and 2023.

South Dakota State also has a game under its belt and looked fantastic. The Jackrabbits blasted Stetson 70-7 while amassing 628 yards of total offense, 393 of which were on the ground. As a double-digit underdog, that rushing production is key because it allows SDSU to control the game clock, shorten the game and keep Northwestern's offense off the field.

Quarterback Chase Mason returns experience at the game's most important position. Mason was 8-1 as a starter last season while dealing with an injury limitation and passed for 15 touchdowns and ran for six. He opened the season by connecting on a 73-yard touchdown bomb on SDSU's very first offensive play against Stetson. This isn't an offense that will keep its foot on the gas all game long, but it can create enough explosive plays to hit the high teens or low 20's.

Northwestern is starting a new offensive system under Chip Kelly and has a new quarterback in Michigan State transfer Aidan Chiles. The potential is easy to see, but this is their first game together during the regular season. The Wildcats averaged just 23.4 points and 346.1 yards per game last season, which means laying nearly two touchdowns would have us believe their new offense will click right away.

Northwestern should be able to run the ball with Caleb Komolafe and their stacked backfield, but South Dakota State hasn't exactly been wilting against the run lately. This is a program that’s used to physical football in the Missouri Valley. This is a program built for line-of-scrimmage battles, playoff atmospheres and playing on the road against talented opponents. I could certainly see Northwestern wearing down the Jackrabbits as the game goes on, but I don’t believe the talent gap is great enough for nearly two touchdowns.

I wouldn't be totally surprised by a Jackrabbits outright win, but I'll take the generous points here on Saturday.

Jim's Play: 063 South Dakota State

Memphis opened the season with a 27-21 win at UNLV. The final score is a little deceiving because Memphis was outgained by the Rebels 460-418, ran 79 plays to Memphis' 60 and possessed the ball for over 35 minutes. Memphis converted just 3-of-11 third downs. When Memphis needed to make a play, they did so with six sacks. That being said, I like Arkansas State plus the points, especially now that the spread has moved higher for Arkansas State.

Memphis is a deserving favorite, but the number suggests that Arkansas State cannot win this game even if they play their best game of the season. I think Memphis is an improved team, but Arkansas State returns 10 starters (seven on offense) and 41 letter winners. The Red Wolves have gone to three straight bowl games and won their bowl game in each of the last two seasons under Butch Jones.

All three of those players mentioned above return as preseason first team All-Sun Belt. Receiver/returner Chauncy Cobb gives Arkansas State the best weapon for exploiting defenses because he'll provide the Red Wolves with short fields and give them a chance to make big plays with his return ability. Big plays on special teams are huge when you’re catching double digits.

For what it's worth, Memphis is still installing things with a roster that Charles Huff completely overhauled this offseason. They’ll get credit for winning in game one, but game two is a completely different challenge. Laying double digits in the heat of emotion against a seasoned team that knows you is a different ballgame entirely. Arkansas State has also faced Memphis 60 times so they will not scare easy based on opponent or atmosphere.

If anything, the market getting there should make Arkansas State even more attractive as the line has moved a couple of points in the Memphis direction.

Jim's Play: 215. Arkansas State (CFB Game of the Week)

I like Hawaii +points and I also believe the Rainbow Warriors are deserving of a home underdog chance to win outright. Hawaii is being priced from +2.5 to +3.5 and I believe this game is much closer to a pick’em than the spread implies.

The first reason is Micah Alejado. Hawaii's starting quarterback threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions at Stanford and nearly led the Rainbow Warriors to a major upset. Hawaii was down 23-7 before scoring four unanswered touchdowns to take a 27-23 lead with 4:06 left in the game. The 37-27 final was deceiving as Stanford's last touchdown came on a defensive touchdown after Hawaii was driving late in the game to tie or win.

Alejado should have success against a UNLV defense that had some struggles of its own in a 27-21 loss at Memphis. The Rebels gave up 418 yards of total offense and 5.7 yards per carry, while Memphis scored 13 of the final 21 points. UNLV was unable to score in the entire fourth quarter.

UNLV quarterback Jackson Arnold wasn't terrible himself, tossing 291 yards and two touchdowns, but his offensive line was absolutely dreadful. Memphis sacked him six times for 47 yards in loss as UNLV converted just 3 of 15 third downs. If Hawaii can create a couple sacks and force UNLV into some third and longs, they have a chance to get stops when they need them.

Home field also plays a factor here. This is Hawaii's home opener and one of the earlier Mountain West rivalry games at the Ching Complex. Hawaii proved it can score in bunches against Stanford when Alejado gets into rhythm, so I’ll trust his arm enough to continue to pressure UNLV throughout all four quarters.

Jim's Play: Take: 218. Hawaii

UNLV and Hawaii both strike me as teams that want to move the ball but lack the efficiency to hit lofty totals. I like UNDER plays here especially if you can still get solid odds on the 57.5 or 58.5. Some Under action has already occurred in the market as we've seen books come down from an opener around 58.5 into the 56.5-57.5 range.

UNLV got chunk plays against Memphis but stalled repeatedly when drives got close. The Rebels racked up 460 yards of offense but scored just 21 points, converting only 3-of-15 on third down and just two of four trips into the red zone. Quarterback Jackson Arnold was also sacked six times which killed drives multiple times. If Hawaii can rush the passer at all UNLV will likely put up plenty of yards again but struggle to punch it in for touchdowns.

The Hawaii offense had their own efficiency woes against Stanford last week. The Rainbow Warriors only put up 325 yards on the Cardinal and 4.3 yards per play. Hawaii ran for just 46 yards on 2.1 yards per carry and Micah Alejado went 53/5.3 passing. The defense gave up nearly two touchdowns in the fourth quarter so Hawaii scored 20 points after not having their first down until late in the second quarter. This makes the 27-point total posted by Sunday seem overly generous.

There is obviously the hurricane factor to consider as well. Category 5 Hurricane Lowell continues to trend south of Hawaii as we enter the week, but the National Hurricane Center is asking interests in the Hawaiian Islands to monitor its progress. Lowell is not expected to make landfall on Oahu, but it could increase wind speeds around the islands come the weekend. Honolulu is forecast to have breezy conditions on Saturday so wind could become a factor and make both deep passing and the kicking game unpredictable. An Under would benefit.

Do not read this as me saying you need to bet this as a hurricane game. We’re not getting forecasts that indicate rain will delay or cancel this game. Right now, the forecast is calling for clouds and winds, which is why I’m including it here as another reason you might see UNDER lines. If Lowell remains south of Hawaii it's possible winds will pick up here before the game. However, I wouldn't handicap this line based on the weather at this time.

Both teams have reasons to protect the football a bit more after stumbling out of the gates. UNLV should run more to keep Arnold upright while Hawaii has to establish some semblance of balance after Alejado threw the ball 53 times in Week 0.

Jim's Play: 217. UNLV/Hawaii  UNDER