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In Philadelphia this Friday, the Phillies will host the Reds to bring you an exciting matchup on Independence Day, Jul 04, 2025 at 10:05 AM PDT. The Phillies are looking to keep their winning ways after a 4-1 series win over the Rockies at home. While their opponents, the Reds, would love to pick up their fifth straight win as well against Philadelphia but that will be an uphill task as they are just above .500 right now at 45-42. While both teams start lefties on the hill today with Cincinnati starter Andrew Abbott and Phillies’ starter Jesús Luzardo, which team will take the day in this bout and who will be able to support their pitcher with a strong performance from their lineup?

Cincinnati sends Andrew Abbott (7-1, 1.79 ERA) to take on Philadelphia’s Jesús Luzardo (7-4, 4.06 ERA) on Friday afternoon. Abbot has been a quiet but steady contributor this season, pitching to a 7-1 record with a 1.79 ERA over 80 innings pitched (IP). He’s been especially good on the road this season, going 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA, so he could be someone to keep an eye on if he can maintain that kind of performance in Philly.

Luzardo has a solid strikeout rate (111 Ks in 95 innings) but his results haven’t always backed up his underlying skills, he’s a 4.06 ERA pitcher with a lot of hard contact surrendered at times. Luzardo will have to find a way to contain the Reds’ offense, which is anchored by Elly De La Cruz, who is their leader in homers (18) and RBI (58). TJ Friedl and Aquino both hit .281. Overall, the Reds average 4.64 runs per game, so they’re right there with the Phillies offensively.

The Phillies also sport a power-hitting lineup, led by Lane Thomas (19 homers, 57 RBI), but also a lot of on-base hitting and contact from Austin Nola (.347 avg.) and players like Turner (.297), Castellanos, and Bohm. As noted above, the Reds aren’t that much weaker than the Phillies on offense, and they actually rank 9th in MLB in runs per game. They tend to be a speed/contact team with a little bit of hidden power, but with enough speed to challenge pitchers at the top of the order. It should be a solid pitching matchup, but the bullpen depth of both clubs is not ideal, as the Phillies sit 24th in the majors with a 4.39 ERA. Cincinnati’s relief corps is better but still very shaky.

The Reds have a lot here to make them a live dog. I believe they have the better pitcher on the hill and matchup statistically with the Phillies on offense. Have to explore dogs when they are this closely matched. 

Jim's Play: 951. Reds 

The Pirates are set to visit the Seattle Mariners on July 4 in a holiday classic. As the Pirates search for their first series win in Seattle since 2007, they have opted to turn to lefty Bailey Falter (6–3, 3.62 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). Falter will start the seventh game of his young career on Independence Day and hopes to better his results against the Mariners. We like Pittsburgh’s rotation against Seattle, but the Pirates don’t have much offensive punch and they rank 30th in MLB at 310 runs scored. Cal Raleigh has 33 homers and Julio Rodriguez offers some speed, so the Mariners do have a good lineup and its righty Luis Castillo will hope to keep the game under control. There is some question as to whether Falter will start here today, but I will take the Bucs with or without him on the hill. 

Lefty Bailey Falter has been a nice find for the Pirates so far in 2023 and he is tied for the team lead in wins. After a perfecto against Baltimore on June 27, he hit a rough patch, surrendering seven runs in each of his next two outings. In the last five starts, Falter has a 1.78 ERA and he also went 6-0 with a 1.03 WHIP on the year prior to his June skid. Bailey throws strikes and he mixes pitches with location, a potent combination that works because he also induces weak contact on a regular basis.

Castillo is an under-the-radar power arm for Seattle. I do hope Falter will go here since I think he's their No 2 best starter.  Plus the M's will be a laying a decent price so that live dog option is on the table for the Buc. 

Jim's Play: 967. Pirates