Scott Rickenbach Premium Picks

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Saturday MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 ET - The Phillies are off a bad beat yesterday as they took the lead in the top of the 12th and then lost it in the bottom of the 12th. Philadelphia outhit the Rockies by a huge margin yesterday but Philly stranded far too many men on base. Look for a bounce back here with Aaron Nola over Antonio Senzatela in this one. Nola has not been his typical dominant self early this season but that has led to line value in this spot as the Phillies are only a small road favorite even though Nola has enjoyed success against the Rockies including a start at Coors Field. Senzatela faced Philadelphia late last September and allowed 5 hits and walked 3 in less than 5 innings of work so he was fortunate to allow only 1 earned run. Nola has struck out 17 and allowed only 10 hits in his 13 and 2/3 innings of work versus the Rockies in his career. Phillies are off B2B losses and have yet to lose 3 straight this season. Colorado has won 5 straight but previously had lost 12 of 13 prior games. Though Senzatela had a strong first start it came against a Padres team that has one of the lowest batting averages in the majors this season. The Phillies rank among the top teams in the National League for road batting average on the season with a .272 mark thus far. Philly is 10-6 this season against right-handed starters. The Rockies entered this series having gone 0-5 in home games this season. Having won 2 straight since, I don't see it reaching 3 straight. Better lineup, better starting pitcher, and not a big difference between these bullpens. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Game #75 Saturday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line (+) @ St Louis Blues @ 7:05 ET - A home team has won only one game out of the 5 games so far in this series and that was the most recent one which featured an amazing comeback from the Blues. Down 2-0 from the first period on St Louis managed to scored 3 third period goals (including one with just 15 seconds left) to steal Game 5. Look for the Jets to respond huge in Game 6. Winnipeg is very confident playing at St Louis and they really got to Blues rookie goal Binnington in Game 3 action here. Winnipeg has won 6 of the last 10 meetings and the only 4 wins for St Louis each have come by a single goal margin. As for the Jets, their 6 wins have come by an average victory margin of 3 goals per victory which of course shows a huge difference in terms of which team has shown the ability to dominate for longer stretches in meetings between these teams! St Louis has only 3 goals in the past 3 games that have come in 5 on 5 hockey. The Jets 10 goals the last 3 games have only included 1 goal that came on the power play. The point is that, without the man advantage, the Jets have been the much more dangerous team in terms of goal-scoring ability and I look for that to key a road win to send this series back north of the border for a massive Game 7. Grab the road dog at a great price! 10* WINNIPEG

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Game #77 Saturday 8* Dallas Stars Money Line (+) @ Nashville Predators @ 3:05 ET - The Stars are off a 5-1 home win and now the series returns to Nashville where the Predators got the best of Dallas in Game 2. However, prior to that defeat, the Stars had won 8 of their last 10 road games. In other words, we're getting great line value here because this series (just as in many of the other first round series) has proven to show that home ice is not a key factor. The Predators have won just half their games on home ice since Christmas! Nashville has scored only 2 power play goals in their last 15 games! The Stars scored more than that in just the last game alone. In fact, Dallas is a red hot 13 of 40 on the power play in their last 11 games! Special teams can play a key role in tight low-scoring games and that is the type of match-up expected here on Saturday in this key Game 5 with the series knotted at 2 games apiece. Long-term the Predators have lost 15 of 23 games when knotted up in a playoff series and one could argue the pressure is all on Nashville here as they are at home and off an ugly Game 4 loss and losing on home ice would put them in a tough spot heading to Dallas for Game 6. I look for the Stars surge to continue here. 8* DALLAS

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets @ 5:35 ET - The Nuggets Murray, Barton, and Harris combined to make just 8 of 25 from the field and only 2 of 6 from the free throw line in Thursday's loss. Even with those horrible numbers Denver still scored 108 points and the game easily went over the total. Now we're seeing Saturday's total having dropped from an opener of 211 all the way down to a 207.5 and the value is with the over here. The Spurs have been getting strong guard play and the Nuggets had strong guard play in Game 2 before faltering in San Antonio in Game 3. Both those games went over the total and I expect that trend to continue here as Denver's backcourt responds after a poor game Thursday but they continue to struggle to stop White and DeRozan for the Spurs. The Nuggets don't want to get into a half-court game here with the Spurs as that plays right into the strength of San Antonio. Denver, facing a nearly insurmountable 3-1 hole with a loss here are going to try and play this game at their tempo and "force the issue" with quick buckets in transition and not allowing the Spurs defense to get fully set. Denver has scored 108 points or more in 6 of its last 8 games. SA has scored an average of 113.5 points per game in their last 17 home games. Take advantage of the line move here and expect another very entertaining battle with big scoring runs from each team at points throughout this game just like we've seen in the last two between these foes. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #557 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 3:05 ET - As I mentioned Thursday, the 76ers destroyed the Nets in the second half of Game 2 and that has set the tone for the rest of this series. Brooklyn embarrassed Philly on their home court in Game 1. Now the Sixers will be looking to return the favor as the series has shifted north and Philly won Game 3 and now looks to sweep the two games in Brooklyn with another strong effort in Game 4. The extra rest helps Philadelphia's Joel Embiid as he was able to sit out Game 3 and I know he is listed as doubtful for this game as he continues to battle with knee issues. However, considering he only logged 21 minutes in Game 2 and that game took place on Monday, I wouldn't be surprised if he plays in Game 4 on Saturday. Keep in mind, he was also listed as doubtful for Game 1 of this series but he ended up playing. The Sixers have been getting strong play from other big men when Embiid has sat so they've survived his absences. Note that Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in first round playoff games and this line is only a 1.5 so any SU win likely to lead to a point spread cover as well. In fact, with the money line very low here that is how I would recommend playing this one. Lay the short price on the money line. As for Brooklyn, of course they would love to bounce back here but the Nets are 2-7 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 23 of the Nets last 24 losses have come by 3 or more points. 10* PHILADELPHIA