Dolphins vs. Steelers Betting Preview 01/08/17 – NFL Wild Card Odds

January 7th, 2017

Miami Dolphins (10-6) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) Betting Preview

Line/Odds: Pittsburgh -10 (5dimes)
Total: 45.5
Time: 1:05 pm ET
Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh PA.
Television Broadcast: CBS

Betting Preview

In Week 5 Miami was sitting with a 1-4 record and quarterback Ryan Tannehill had thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (6) and the season looked lost.

But then the Dolphins went on a six game winning streak and had a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. The streak started with a win against these Steelers 30-15 and was also the first of three 200 yard games this season for running back Jay Ajayi. Tannehill also turned his season around with nine touchdown passes and just one interception over those six games.

In Week 14 Tannehill was lost for the season after being injured but veteran quarterback Matt Moore has filled in nicely and Miami won two of their last three games of the regular season.

In that game the Steelers lost to Miami, Big Ben was injured and they dropped their next three games. With a 4-5 record, Pittsburgh had to make a move and they did by running the table with seven straight wins to close out the season. Roethlisberger finished the season passing for over 3800 yards while throwing 29 touchdowns.

The oddsmakers have made Pittsburgh a 10 point favorite and set the total at 45.5. According to Covers.com Consensus Analysis 52% of the public believe that Miami is better than that and are backing the Dolphins while 56% think the teams will have no problem scoring and are backing the over.

The road team has won three of the last four games these teams have played each other.

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Previous Meetings

10/16/16: Steelers 15 @ Dolphins 30
12/08/13: Dolphins 34 @ Steelers 28
10/24/10: Steelers 23 @ Dolphins 22

Trends

The Dolphins have covered the spread in four of their last five meetings
The over is 6-0 in the Dolphins last six games overall
The Steelers have covered the spread in six of their last seven home playoff games

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Oilers vs Kings	Oilers -135	Top Premium	4-2	Win	100	Show
This is a 10* play on the Edmonton Oilers. The Kings have lost two of three since trading their leading scorer to the Vancouver Canucks. Tonight they will play their second game of a back to back at home against the Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton has gone 3-2-1 without their leading scorer Connor McDavid, but he is expected to return to the lineup soon. The Oilers are just three points back of division leaders Las Vegas, but they are only three points up on ninth place Nashville. They find themselves (like most teams in the Western Conference) on the playoff bubble. With or without McDavid, this is a game that Edmonton desperately needs to win, and they couldn't ask for a more suitable opponent. Take EDM. GL, Jesse Schule
Pelicans vs Warriors	Pelicans -8 -110	Premium	115-101	Win	100	Show
This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Pelicans. I had the Pelicans in their win over Portland on Friday, and here is what I said prior to tip off: "New Orleans went into the All Star break as one of the hotter teams in the league. They are finally healthy, and this young team is causing plenty of excitement around the league. They catch a break here on Friday, facing a Blazers team without Damian Lillard. The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall." They are in Golden State tonight, and the Warriors have lost five straight. This couldn't be a bigger mismatch. Take NO. GL, Jesse Schule
Pacers vs Raptors	Raptors -4½ -105	Premium	81-127	Win	100	Show
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Raptors. I had the Raptors on Friday, and they beat the Phoenix Suns by double digits. Here is what I said prior to tip off: "the Raptors are defending NBA Champions, and their record this year isn't any different than it was this time last year. The media doesn't really believe in the Raptors, but then again they thought Toronto would get swept in the Finals last year." Toronto has now won 16 of their last 17 overall, and eight straight home games. They covered the spread in six of those eight home games, and they won by double digits in six of those eight games. The Pacers are 13-27 ATS in the last 40 meetings in Toronto. This line should be almost double what it is. Take TOR. GL, Jesse Schule

PICKS IN PROGRESS

Feb 24 '20, 9:05 PM

Play Type: Premium Pick

NBA | Suns vs Jazz

Play on: Jazz -7½ -115 at betonline

Game Analysis

This is a 5* play on the Utah Jazz.

Utah has come out of the All Star break and lost back to back home games to San Antonio and Houston. I will forgive them for their sloppy start to the second half (post All Star), and I don't think there is any way in hell they drop a third consecutive home game tonight versus Phoenix. The Suns are coming off a road win at Chicago, after losing by double digits to Toronto. The Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. The Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. The Suns are 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Utah. Expect the home team to win by double digits.

Take UTAH.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Pick Released on Feb 24 at 12:21 am

Feb 24 '20, 7:35 PM

Play Type: Premium Pick

NBA | Magic vs Nets

Play on: Nets -148 at pinnacle

Game Analysis

This is a 5* play on the Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets got some great news last week, when they learned Kyrie Irving will miss the remainder of the season. Kyrie has been the biggest flake in the league ever since he told us the earth was flat in 2018. The Celtics are glad to be rid of him, and Brooklyn has been a better team without him. Now it's time for players like Caris Lavert and Garrett Temple to step up. Tonight they host an Orlando Magic team that is brutal on the road, and has lost 11 of it's last 15 overall. The Magic are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog, and they have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 overall. Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in it's last five home games, and 7-1 ATS in it's last eight as a favorite.

Take BKN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Pick Released on Feb 24 at 12:20 am

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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

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Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.

Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.

Signature Plays:

AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.

The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.

GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.

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