Today’s Best Free Sports Betting Picks and Predictions From Our Experts

1* Bet on Washington/Purdue: over 49½

[1%] Free Play on Spurs -14 -110

1* Free Play on Blazers -2 -110

1* Free Play on Nuggets +6½

Free Total Annihilator On Heat vs Magic over 233 -110

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: SMU -9.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the SMU Mustangs.  They have failed to cover the spread in three consecutive games coming in.  They outgained Louisville by 37 yards but lost 41-31 on the road.  They outgained Missouri State by 353 yards but only won that game by 10 as 30.5-point favorites.  And they had a stinker against Boston College in a 25-16 win as 21.5-point home favorites, a BC defense that is much better than it gets credit for and held the Mustangs in check.

But now the Mustangs are off a bye week and have two full weeks to get ready for Virginia.  I think the three straight non-covers has us getting them at a discount now as a single-digit home favorite here in a tremendous spot.  I expect them to put their best foot forward this week.

Virginia is in shambles.  The Cavaliers lost 38-27 to West Virginia as 10.5-point favorites on a neutral.  That loss looks real bad now after WVU has since suffered three consecutive losses to Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Arizona with two in blowout fashion.  Virginia went on to beat Delaware with a backup QB at home.  But the last two efforts coming into this game are the most concerning.

Virginia lost 38-7 at Florida State two weeks ago, and it was just as big of a blowout as the final score showed.  They were outgained by 259 yards by the Seminoles and held to just 205 total yards.  That's a FSU team that was just blasted 44-20 by Louisville last week, and one with a very poor defense.  And last week the Cavaliers escaped with a 28-25 home win over Syracuse as 13.5-point favorites in a win they did not deserve.  They were outgained by 142 yards by the Orange, who were playing with 3rd-string QB Malachi Nelson.  They gave up 430 yards Syracuse.

This Virginia offense is broken with Beau Pribula, who clearly isn't 100% and is not the dual-threat they expected him to be.  He has just 97 rushing yards on 58 carries this season.  The regression bug is finally hitting the Cavaliers after making the ACC title game last season while getting all the breaks in close games along the way.

SMU has elite numbers and is still a ACC title contender.  The Mustangs average 484.2 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 312.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 172.4 yards per game and 2.0 yards per play this season, which are two of the best marks in the country.  Look for them to put everything together off their bye this week against a reeling Cavaliers team, and to finally live up to their potential on the scoreboard with a win and cover.  Bet SMU Saturday.

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Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Saints PK

1* Free Pick on Raptors +10½ -110

3* on Blazers

Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football in my view. But he's not going to be the main story here.

Instead it's going to be Stephen Daley, Mario Landino, Tyrique Tucker and Tobi Osunsami. These are Indiana's defensive linemen. They are the keys to the Hoosiers upsetting the Buckeyes.

Indiana has the third most sacks in the country. Ohio State has injuries to its offensive line. The Hoosiers rank 5th in scoring defense allowing only 11.8 points per game and have the seventh-best run defense in the nation.

As we learned last season, it is a mistake to underestimate Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers had five sacks when they defeated the Buckeyes, 13-10, in last year's Big Ten Championship Game.

Julian Sayin is a Heisman Trophy candidate although Smith is the likely winner at this point. But Indiana has a big time passer, too, in Josh Hoover. He has completed 68.2% of his passes for 17 touchdowns. Ohio State does not generate a strong pass rush. Hoover is most dangerous when he has a clean pocket.

Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh provide Hoover with one of the best wide receiver tandems in the country.

Free Play on Bucks +9 -110

1 Dimer on Nuggets +6½ -115

1* Free Pick on Nuggets +6½

Getting 6.5 in a preseason finale where one team is running out its entire starting unit and the other might not have Luka Doncic is the whole bet.

Denver's expected starters all suit up here: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokic.

That group has powered a 115.1 offensive rating through 4 preseason games.

The Lakers sit at 102.1 on that same end over their 4 preseason games.

That's a 13-point efficiency gap on offense alone.

The bigger problem for Los Angeles is ball security.

A 24% turnover rate is giving away roughly a quarter of their possessions, and it's a big reason they carry a -2.4 net rating into this one.

Doncic is listed as a planned rest candidate with a 50% chance to play.

Collin Sexton, Ziaire Williams, Adou Thiero, and Cameron Carr are all day-to-day behind him.

That's most of the guard and wing rotation in question.

The fair knock on Denver is bench depth.

DeMar DeRozan, Julian Strawther, and Spencer Jones are all banged up, and reserves log real minutes in a finale.

But the Lakers' injury list is just as long and theirs includes the best player in the game.

Thin bench against thin bench is a wash.

Healthy starters against maybe-Luka is not.

A 6.5-point spread prices in a Lakers edge that the preseason numbers don't support.

I'll take the points.

I like the Nuggets

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Central Michigan +7

The Key: Western Michigan beat Central Michigan 24-21 last season in a game that decided which team would be going to the MAC Championship Game.  The Broncos went on to win the title.  The Chippewas have not forgotten and will be hungry for revenge at home this time around.  And catching a full TD with the Chippewas at home is a nice price.  Both teams feature run-heavy offenses and this is expected to be a low-scoring game so all the points we get are even more valuable.  Central Michigan has been impressive at home this year going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS including blowout wins over Wyoming by 14 and Akron by 24.  WMU hasn't been able to get margin on the road going 2-1 SU but 1-2 ATS.  The Broncos only beat lowly Rice by 7 and lowly Buffalo by 3 in their last 2 road games.  They also lost by 25 at home to Boise State.  WMU gave up 158 rushing yards to Monmouth, 209 to Rice and 173 to Boise State.  CMU rushed for 339 yards on Wyoming and 332 yards on Akron.  Take Central Michigan.

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1* Free Wiseguy Play on Suns -4½ -110

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Virginia Tech -9

Georgia Tech is coming off a big 28-25 upset win over Duke as 4.5-point home dogs last week.  But in that win they lost star RB Justice Haynes, who has rushed for 462 yards and 3 TD this season.  Now they have to go on the road and face a pissed off Virginia Tech team that gave away their last two games.  They lost by 2 to Pitt despite outgaining them by 204 yards.  They then lost on the road at Cal last week, a place that has proven to be very tough to play for these ACC title contenders over the last couple seasons.  Now the Hokies return home to Lane Stadium, which is one of the better home-field advantages in the country.  Georgia Tech previously lost to Colorado at home, and that loss looks real bad now.  They lost by 21 to Tennessee, a SEC team that is down a few notches this season.  And they lost by 7 at Stanford, which is getting blown out by everyone else.  The win over Duke doesn't look that great either with Duke playing such a soft schedule leading into that game.  I expect the Hokies to handle the Yellow Jackets by double-digits.  Give me Virginia Tech.

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1* Best Bet on Suns -4½

No analysis provided.

Friday card has a TOP CFL Platinum Supreme move and our Famous Friday night Hot side headlining in CFB in BIG 10 Action. NHL Comp play below

The NHL comp play is on Colorado -1.5 goals at 9:05 eastern. The Avalanche after a hot start have cooled down a bit, but tonight they are in a rare system that plays on home favorites at -180 or higher that are off a home favored loss and scored 2 or less goals and are taking on a team like Pittsburgh that is on off a road favored loss if the total in this game is higher than 6. There have been 5 teams fitting this criteria since 2007. All have won by more than 1 goal. Colorado has won 4 of in the series and we will back them to get the multiple goal win. GL Rob V-

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #209239 Atlante/Pumas UNAM DRAW (+235) (11 p.m., Friday, October 16 Fox Sports Deportes) Liga MX.

We see value in the draw between two sides struggling to find consistency. Atlante has shared the points in five of its first 11 league matches, including three of five at home. With just one home victory, the hosts have had trouble turning competitive performances into wins. Pumas UNAM has defensive concerns of its own, conceding 11 goals over its last five matches. That makes the visitors difficult to trust to claim all three points on the road. We expect a closely contested matchup with chances for both teams, but neither side doing enough to pull away. At +235, take the draw. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring top plays in football, hockey, UFC and soccer. Sign-up with a long term package and let 55 years of handicapping experience work for you.

R&R Totals FREE CFB Over-Under Friday 10-16-26

UNDER 55 1/2 Memphis/Tulane

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Wyoming -7.5

Wyoming and NIU meet on Saturday and we’re on Wyoming laying the points. NIU comes in 0-5 and they have been abysmal on both sides of the ball. They are averaging just 12.4 ppg while conceding 34.6 ppg against. They’ve been unable to find any sort of rhythm and Wyoming is going to be another tough task for them. Wyoming comes in off an overtime win against San Jose State and they have been dominant defensively. They are allowing just 20 ppg and they’re going to blitz this NIU side all game long. Look for them to get a big push up front and cause a lot of issues in this NIU backfield. This is a completely lopsided matchup and the value is with Wyoming here. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the Wyoming ATS. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Saturday FREE NCAAF ATS Play

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 UCLA is laying 2.5–3 at home against a 4-1 Wisconsin team on Saturday night at the Rose Bowl, with the total sitting in the low-to-mid 40s. The number has been short and relatively stable in that range. Wisconsin is the better ATS side this season, and a short home favorite against a team already 4-1 is the tax. The points are the work.

 Wisconsin sits at 4-1 (2-0 Big Ten), averaging 31.6 points while allowing 16.6. The Badgers have been efficient on both sides of the ball (6.2 yards per play on offense, strong defensive numbers), with a perfect red-zone scoring rate and solid control in recent wins. They opened with a loss to Notre Dame but have since reeled off four straight victories, including a 24-20 road win at Penn State and a 31-3 home win over Michigan State. Wisconsin is 3-2 against the spread and 3-2 on the total. Their defense has limited opponents to roughly 16–17 points per game, and the offense has been balanced enough to stay in games without relying on explosive variance.

UCLA is 5-0 (3-0 Big Ten) and ranked around No. 12, averaging 39.2 points while allowing 18.0. The Bruins have covered in every game so far (5-0 ATS) and have wins over California, San Diego State, Purdue, Maryland, and a 17-15 road upset at Oregon as double-digit underdogs. Their offense has been productive, particularly on the ground (over 1,200 rushing yards), but the quarterback situation is a major variable: Nico Iamaleava left the Oregon game with injuries and is expected to be limited or out, elevating Ty Dieffenbach or another option. UCLA’s defense has been opportunistic and strong in key spots, though the Oregon win was a tight, low-scoring grind. They are 3-2 on the total.

Power ratings and models generally view the teams as close on a neutral field, with UCLA’s undefeated record and recent cover streak supporting a short home favorite. Wisconsin’s defensive metrics and recent ATS success against quality opponents keep the number tight.

This is a physical Big Ten road test at the historic Rose Bowl. Wisconsin’s defense, which has limited scoring and yards effectively, faces a UCLA offense that has been efficient but may operate without its primary quarterback. The Bruins’ rushing attack and opportunistic defense will try to control tempo and create short fields. Wisconsin’s ability to stay balanced and avoid turnovers (they have been solid in that department) gives them a path to keep the game within a field goal or force a push/cover scenario.

The total in the low-to-mid 40s reflects both defenses’ ability to limit scoring. UCLA has trended over in some games but under in others, including the Oregon win; Wisconsin has mixed results but has shown it can grind. Weather at the Rose Bowl looks warm and clear. Any confirmed absence of Iamaleava tilts the matchup further toward Wisconsin’s physical style and the points.

UCLA leads the all-time series roughly 7-4. The teams have not met since 2000, when Wisconsin won 21-20. Wisconsin has taken the last three meetings overall (1993, 1998, and 2000). Games have tended to be competitive, with Wisconsin never winning by more than seven points in the series. Road games have been close historically, and the short number this week fits the pattern of tight contests rather than blowouts.

Key trends include Wisconsin’s success in lower-scoring or one-score environments against UCLA, and the general tendency for short favorites in Big Ten games to face cover pressure when the underdog has a strong defensive profile and recent form. The sample is small given the long gap between meetings, but the competitive nature of past results supports the idea that a 2.5–3 point home favorite is not a large edge.

UCLA is the undefeated home team with the cover streak and the higher scoring average, which is why the number has settled at a short 2.5–3 rather than something larger. Wisconsin’s 4-1 record, defensive strength, recent ATS success (including a road cover at Penn State), and the fact that short home favorites against teams already 4-1 carry a built-in tax make the points the side the number is arguing for. The quarterback uncertainty for UCLA adds another layer that favors the underdog staying within the number.

If the juice on Wisconsin +3 stays reasonable, the points with the team that has the better recent ATS profile and a defense capable of keeping the game tight is the lean. Shop the number (it has moved between 2.5 and 3.5 in spots) and monitor the UCLA quarterback situation through the week. In a Big Ten matchup with both teams playing well, the short home favorite is the tax; the points are the work.

Luke Fickell is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS at Wisconsin this season, including a 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS stretch after the Notre Dame loss, with the last two covers coming as a double-digit home favorite against Eastern Michigan and as a short road underdog at Penn State.

Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS overall and has already covered as a 9.5-point road underdog at Penn State. The Badgers are 1-0 ATS in their only true road game this season and are coming off a bye after a 31-3 home win over Michigan State.

UCLA is 5-0 ATS and is laying a short number at home after a ranked road win. Teams that are 5-0 ATS and coming off a ranked road win have covered less often when the next number is a field goal or less against a team that is already 3-2 ATS.

Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS and has covered in three of its last four games, including the road upset at Penn State. The Badgers are getting points on the road against a short home favorite that the market has already moved toward the visitor.

The number opened UCLA -3 and is now -2.5. Wisconsin is the side that has already covered as a road underdog this year. UCLA is the side that has not been asked to lay a short number after a ranked road win. That is the spot.

Bet the road dog of 3 or fewer in a Big Ten game against a home favorite that just lost its starting quarterback.
Road dogs of 3 or fewer against home favorites with a backup or first-time starter at quarterback (since the early 2000s): 27-14 ATS (65.9%). At -110, 27 wins and 14 losses is +11.5 unit$, ROI=28.0%.

Bet Wisconsin as a road underdog of 3 or fewer.
Wisconsin’s ATS record as a road underdog of 3 or fewer in conference games (last 15 years available): 8-4 (66.7%). At -110, that is +3.3 unit$, ROI=27.5%.

Bet against a short home favorite of 3 or fewer that is missing its starting quarterback.
Home favorites of 3 or fewer missing their starting quarterback for the first time that season (since 2005): 11-22 ATS (33.3%). At -110, 11 wins and 22 losses is -12.1 unit$, ROI=-36.7%

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Purdue at 8 pm et on Friday.

The Boilermakers are coming off consecutive 'upset' wins over Illinois and Minnesota and are being asked to lay points against the reeling Huskies on Friday. Washington is likely going to be without QB Demond Williams but I don't know if that's as big of a deal as it's being made out to be as he has struggled mightily this season. Backup QB Elijah Brown performed well in mop-up duty against Iowa last week and has starting experience from his time spent with Stanford. I look for the Huskies defense to bounce back here after an embarrassing performance at home against a good Iowa team last week. Note that Washington had held its first five opponents to 27 points or less prior to that 41-24 beatdown. Purdue has played well defensively over the last couple of games but I do wonder if it's sustainable. This is the same team that got torn to shreds by UCLA and Notre Dame earlier in the season (I realize Washington's offense isn't close to being at that level this season). Take Washington (8*).

1* on Nuggets +6½

Penguins vs Avalanche NHL FREE PICK

The Angle(s): The Pittsburgh Penguins can score, but their defense is leaking. They just gave up five goals to Chicago, and their young netminder Sergei Murashov stopped only 15 shots in that loss.

That’s a dangerous combination against a Colorado attack averaging close to 4.5 goals per game, but the Avs aren’t airtight either, allowing about three goals per game. Recent meetings have opened up, and I expect both teams to find the back of the net often enough to push this past the number.

The Bet: Over (3%). 

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#199 ASA FREE PLAY ON Kansas +3.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 12 PM ET

History is against us in this one but we love the match up for Kansas here.  KSU has won 17 in a row but this looks like the year the Jayhawks have a great shot to break that run.  Even if not, we expect a close game and we’re getting KU at +4.5 so above key numbers 3 and 4.  Kansas simply looks like the better team this season.  They have played the more difficult schedule (54th SOS for KU and 93rd for KSU) yet they have the better YPG and YPP margins.  2 of their 3 losses have come vs Missouri and Utah (both top 15 teams) and their other loss was fluky vs Arizona State (in London).  That was a game Kansas lost but outgained the Devils by 185 yards and +2.1 YPP.  They lost that game 24-17 but had 3 turnovers, missed a FG, and were shut out on downs twice in ASU territory and still had a shot to win the game.  KSU was rolling early in the season facing weak competition and as soon as they stepped up vs a few teams with a pulse, it went south fast for the Wildcats.  Their wins came vs FCS Nicholls State, Washington State (ranked 106th) and Tulane (ranked 92nd).  After their 3-0 start they lost @ Cincinnati and were outgained by 3.0 YPP and then lost last week vs Houston and were outgained by 1.4 YPP.  KSU entered their game vs Cincy as one of the top rushing teams in the country (played 3 poor defenses prior to that) but in their last 2 games they’ve been outrushed 504 to 272.  If they can’t dominate the trenches, this Wildcat team is in trouble.  They’ll have problems doing that in this game vs a Jayhawk team that rushes for 215 YPG and they are much better defending the rush than Kansas State.  KU allows just 3.8 YPC (KSU allows 4.3 YPC) and they rank 14th in defensive rush success rate, 10th in defensive line yards, and 5th in defensive stuff rate (all great metrics to stop the run).  KSU ranks 36th, 63rd and 42nd in those 3 defensive metrics.  We like the coaching advantage for Kansas here as well with veteran successful head man Lance Leipold facing KSU’s Klein who is in his first year as a head coach at any level.  The Jayhawks are coming off a loss vs a very good Utah team last week but played quite well and the final score of 41-24 was misleading.  KU put up 6.7 YPP in that game and trailed by just 3 in the 4th quarter.  Despite the long term dominance for Kansas State in this series, 2 of the last 3 meetings went to the wire with the Wildcats coming from behind in the 4th quarter to win by 2 and 4 points.  Kansas has a decent shot at the upset here and we like the points.

Ricky's 1* play on PUR.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Purdue are 3-1 in their last 4 games.

- Washington are 0-3 in their last 3 games.

- Purdue are 3-1 in their last 4 home games.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

Marc David's Free Pick

We really like underdog in this matchup. The Penguins (3-3-1) will try to snap a three-game road losing streak, but the results have been tighter than the record looks. Five of their seven games have finished within one goal or as a Pittsburgh win. The offense runs deeper than just the starsm and Erik Karlsson has seven assists from the back end, which shows how involved he is in everything they create.

The Avalanche (4-2-1) can score with anybody, averaging 4.43 goals per game while allowing 3, but they’ve cooled off lately. They were held to five goals across a home-and-home with Dallas this week, both one-goal affairs.

Colorado deserves to be the favorite at home, but a backup goalie and an offense that has sputtered against structured teams make a multi-goal win less likely than the price suggests. The Penguins’ veteran core and their depth scoring should keep this within one, and we’ll take the cushion with Pittsburgh.

This is a FREE PLAY on the PENGUINS +1.5.

Free Pick on Blazers -2 -110

FREE PLAY on Necaxa +174

PSP Data Driven 1* Over.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Over. The Over is 5-3 in the Guardians last 8 games. The Over is 6-4 in the Rays last 10 games.

For my best free pick on the board here for Saturday in College Football action I am looking at Notre Dame traveling to take on BYU here in prime time action. Normally I fade the Irish or at least just avoid them which is what I have done this season but here I think we have an opportunity with them as they face a team that is 5-0 both SU and ATS and getting double digits which should entice a majority of bettors on this game IMO and based on early action I think I am on point here. Irish were screwed last year not getting in the playoffs and I am sure this team has heard the nay sayers saying this team has played no one. I think BYU is a big public dog here and Notre Dame will have zero mercy here on Saturday.

Play on Notre Dame lay the points rotation #179

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