Today’s Best Free Sports Betting Picks and Predictions From Our Experts

3* on Collin Morikawa

1* Free Pick on Iowa -130

Iowa is the more disciplined team and has the best player on the floor in this matchup.
Ben McCollum has transformed the Hawkeyes into a top-tier unit that wins with efficiency rather than just raw pace.

Bennett Stirtz is playing like an All-American right now and carries this offense.
He is averaging over 21 points and 6 assists while shooting nearly 60% from the floor.

Washington has struggled to find any consistency in Big Ten play this season.
The Huskies sit at 4-7 in the conference and have a roster that still hasn't fully gelled under Danny Sprinkle.

Iowa’s biggest edge is their ball security and defensive discipline.
They rank 24th nationally in offensive rating and 33rd in defensive rating.

Washington turns the ball over on nearly 20% of their possessions.
A disciplined team like Iowa will feast on those extra opportunities and convert them into easy points.

The Huskies are also vulnerable on the perimeter.
Iowa’s shooters will find plenty of clean looks against a Washington defense that allows too many open three-pointers.

Expect Iowa to control the tempo and force Washington into a half-court game they can't win.
The Hawkeyes also shoot nearly 80% from the free-throw line, which is huge for a road favorite late in the game.

Washington doesn't have the backcourt depth to keep up once Stirtz starts breaking down their initial layer of defense.
Iowa is the better-coached team and has the higher floor in a mid-week road spot.

I like the Iowa ML (-130)

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Hawks -9½ -115

In the high-stakes world of Mountain West Conference basketball, where home-court advantages often dictate outcomes, the New Mexico Lobos stand out as a formidable force when playing in Albuquerque. Facing off against the Utah State Aggies, the Lobos enter as a short favorite, and the case for them covering the spread hinges on their unyielding dominance at The Pit. With a streak of 23 consecutive home victories, New Mexico has turned their arena into a fortress, outscoring opponents by an average margin that underscores their ability to control games from tip-off to buzzer. This isn't just about crowd energy; it's reflected in league-wide trends where home teams in conference matchups have covered the spread at a higher clip when holding superior rebounding edges, a dynamic that plays directly into the Lobos' strengths.

Diving into the stats, New Mexico's defensive rebounding prowess gives them a clear angle to neutralize Utah State's aggressive style. The Lobos rank among the top in the conference for limiting second-chance opportunities, grabbing 37 rebounds per game overall while holding opponents to under 32 boards on average in home contests. This counters the Aggies' rebounding tenacity, where they average 36.2 boards but have struggled to maintain that efficiency on the road against top-tier defenses. League-wide, teams like New Mexico that excel in defensive rebounding, preventing extra possessions, have seen success in covering spreads as home favorites, especially against opponents who rely on forcing turnovers for easy points. Utah State leads the conference with 9.5 steals per game, but New Mexico's ball security, with fewer turnovers per possession than most MWC squads, limits those transition opportunities that the Aggies thrive on.

Trends further bolster the Lobos' position in this matchup. Utah State has gone just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games, a skid that highlights vulnerabilities in closing out tight contests, particularly on the road where they've posted a 5-1 straight-up record in recent outings but failed to cover consistently. In contrast, New Mexico has won four of their last five games outright, with their spread performance at home showing resilience even in closer affairs. Across the NCAA, underdogs like Utah State in conference road games against ranked or high-NET home teams have covered less frequently when the home side boasts a rebounding advantage, as the Lobos do here. Head-to-head history adds another layer: while Utah State holds an 11-4 straight-up edge in the last 15 meetings, they've stumbled to a 1-7 mark against the spread in their last eight road games against New Mexico, often failing to match the Lobos' intensity in The Pit.

Offensively, both teams are potent, with Utah State averaging 83.6 points per game on 51 percent shooting and New Mexico close behind at 81.5 points on 46 percent efficiency. Yet, the Lobos' ability to dictate tempo at home, slowing games to emphasize their defensive strengths, aligns with broader conference trends where home favorites in February clashes have capitalized on fatigue factors for road teams. Utah State's February games have trended toward high totals, with overs hitting in five of their last six, but New Mexico's home defense, allowing just 68 points per game overall, suggests they can keep the Aggies in check enough to pull away late.

Ultimately, the combination of New Mexico's unblemished home record, superior defensive rebounding, and favorable trends against Utah State's recent spread struggles make the Lobos a strong play to cover as the favorite. In a conference where home-court battles often decide seeding, this matchup at The Pit positions New Mexico to assert control and extend their dominance.

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