Today’s Best Free Sports Betting Picks and Predictions From Our Experts

Recommended Bet: Napoli +181

[1%] Free Play on Hornets under 231½ -105

*Free Play Under* The San Jose State Spartans have made a quarterback change, but I still view them as a short passing team that lacks weapons to create big plays in the passing game. San Jose State is terrible in the run game. The San Jose State defense has been much better than expected though. San Jose State has played in four straight games with a final total of 36 points or fewer.

Nevada's Carter Jones is banged up. He may play through the injury, but he is less than 100% healthy. I think Nevada is likely to run the football a lot in this one. The Nevada defense is good at limiting big plays.

The line has moved above a key number of 47, and I'm going to go to the low side here.

Take the under.

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Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Illinois +10

I love the spot for the Illinois Fighting Illini this week. They are coming off their bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for Oregon. The Ducks have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season, and they should not be laying double-digits on the road here.

Oregon is 4-2 SU but 2-4 ATS this season. The Ducks got by Boise State by 7 at home as 24.5-point favorites to open the season. That lackluster effort carried over to Week 2 when they were upset by 8 at Oklahoma State as 23.5-point favorites while getting outgained by 273 yards in the process. The win at USC was good, but the last two weeks were concerning. They lost outright as double-digit home favorites to UCLA, and needed to come back from 14-6 down in the 4th quarter to beat Nebraska by 3 as 6.5-point home favorites.

Now the Ducks hit the road after two wars with UCLA and Nebraska that were decided in the final seconds. Their offense is broken without QB Dante Moore, who is out again this week. They are also missing a couple key receivers. Teams have been able to stack the box to stop the run, and the Ducks haven't shown any ability to run the ball with effectiveness outside the 84-0 win over Portland State which has skewed their numbers. Even with those numbers included, the Ducks are averaging just 137.0 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.

Illinois QB Katin Houser suffered a season-ending injury in the win over Michigan State last time out.  Freshman backup Michael Clayton II came in and balled out in his place, throwing a pair of TD passes to lead the Fighting Illini to a 38-37 win over the Spartans.  The Fighting Illini have used the bye week to get Clayton II fully acclimated to the system and to be ready to start.  The bye week came at the perfect time.  I have confidence he'll be ready as he was highly touted coming out of HS and showed already the moment wasn't too big for him.

This Oregon defense is overrated, too.  They allowed 27 points to Boise State, 39 points and 554 yards to Oklahoma State, and 27 points and 446 yards to USC.  Illinois has a very good, balanced offense that is averaging 31.8 points per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  They average 5.1 yards per carry on the ground and 7.9 yards per attempt through the air.  They even put up 462 yards and 6.5 yards per play against Ohio State to show what they are capable of.

The Fighting Illini parted ways with their defensive coordinator a few weeks ago, and the bye week will also have given them time to tighten up their schemes. They have been good against the run, allowing 126.8 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season. Their weakness is the secondary, but they will benefit from getting to face Oregon's backup QB, too. This is a game the Fighting Illini can win outright. Bet Illinois Saturday.

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3* on Nurullo Aliev

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Falcons +130 (ML) 

1* NFL - Dolphins/Jets NFL FREE PICK on Dolphins +4.5

If we've learned anything about the powerful SEC it is a week-to-week league where surprises occur. Auburn proved that last week stunning No. 1 Georgia, 27-24, and doing it as a 19 1/2-point road underdog.

Not to take anything away from the Tigers' great upset, but Georgia outgained them by 74 yards. Auburn was plus three in turnover ratio.

I don't see Auburn beating a second straight Top 25 team, especially in this major letdown spot. So I am on 18th-ranked LSU.

LSU is 0-2 on the road with a loss to seventh-ranked Mississippi and to Kentucky by one point in overtime. Yes, LSU has to prove itself on the road. Keep this in mind, though, about Auburn. It is 1-9 in its last 10 home games against top-25 teams.

Auburn's Byrum Brown is a dual threat quarterback. But he only has an 8-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. I would take LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt above Brown.

Auburn ranks 91st in passing and 94th in defending the pass. The Tigers also have a below average run defense.

LSU has it all over Auburn statistically ranking in the top 10 in scoring, passing and total yards. LSU also gives up the third fewest yards in the country. LSU rates No. 1 in the SEC in run defense allowing just 88.1 yards per game on the ground.

But what really clinched this handicap for me is LSU getting its star tight end, Trey’Dez Green, back from injury. Green had missed the past four games. I think so highly of Green that I took him in the first round of my SEC fantasy football draft. I find him to be the most talented tight end in the nation.

1* Free Pick on Iowa -5½

SP+ has Iowa 20th in the country at 13.6 and Minnesota 60th at 3.1.

That gap is worth more than a touchdown on a neutral field.

Even after giving the Gophers full home credit, this number should be closer to 8 than 5.5.

The matchup inside the game is even more lopsided.

Iowa's defense ranks 13th in SP+.

Minnesota's offense ranks 85th.

When the Gophers have the ball, they're facing a top-15 unit with a bottom-half attack.

Iowa has backed up the ratings on the field.

The Hawkeyes are 5-1 through 6 games, scoring 31 a game and allowing just 14.5.

They went into Washington two weeks ago and won 41-24.

They won at Michigan 20-19 in late September.

This team travels fine.

Minnesota's 4-2 record is softer than it looks.

The Gophers are 3-2 over their last 5, averaging 22.8 points while giving up 24.8.

Their last trip out of the building was a 41-13 beating at Purdue.

They also got handled 38-13 at home by Mississippi State in September.

The common-opponent read backs it up.

Iowa beat Washington by 17 on the road.

Minnesota needed a 27-24 escape in the same building.

The Gophers' home win over Michigan is the one result propping this line up.

One good Saturday doesn't close a 10-point ratings gap, and their offense hasn't cracked 21 against a quality defense all month.

Better team, better defense, better recent tape, and a number that's at least 2 points short.

I like Iowa

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Texas A&M/Alabama UNDER 50.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on this UNDER between Texas A&M and Alabama. The Aggies are 4-0 UNDER in their last 4 games overall finishing with 41 or fewer combined points in all 4 games. They have one of the worst offenses in the SEC as evidenced by being held to 6 points by LSU and 6 points by Missouri in their last 2 road games. The Crimson Tide have some injuries on offense at WR and OL that are holding them back. They managed just 17 points against Georgia and 10 points against Tennessee in their last 2 games. Both defenses are among the best in the SEC with the Aggies yielding only 17.1 PPG and the Crimson Tide yielding 21.4 PPG this year. Take the UNDER.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Michigan +7½ -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on SDSU/Colorado State OVER 61

The books can't set these Colorado State totals high enough. The Rams are 6-0 OVER in all games this season averaging 35.7 points per game on offense and giving up 43.2 points per game on defense. San Diego State is 5-2 OVER in all games this season with one of the worst defenses in the nation as well. The Aztecs give up 33.3 points per game. They also play fast at 11th in tempo this season. Colorado State is 37th in tempo. There will be a lot of possessions in this game and more opportunity for the offenses to score points against this terrible defenses. Give me the OVER.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Warriors +7½ -110

Huge Saturday with the 2026 SEC Game of the Year, an EARLY Red Zone side + a TOP total and 2 more best Bets. We also have early season NBA Power systems and Game 2 of the World Series. Comp play below.
 
The College Football Comp play is on BYU at 3:30 eastern. The Cougars cashed big for us last week as a our dog of the year winning outright over Notre Dame. The knee jerk reaction would be to play against BYU an assume a flat trap type game. However, after a Thorough scouring through the database we see just the opposite. Week 14 or earlier Road favorites of 5 or more off a home dog win at +9 or higher against a top 10 opponent are a perfect 8-0 straight up and to the spread and win on  average by 25 points per game. BYU has won the last 3 in the series with Central Florida all by 13+ points. The Knights are 3-3 and have lost their last 2. The Cougars have covered 4 straight as a road favorite and likely pull away late for a cover. GL Rob V-
 
SU: 8-0 
ATS: 8-0
 
Team: 39.6
Opp: 14.0
 
Oct 06, 2007 07:00 Sat 6 2007 COLO BAY away 10-0 20-9 10-7 3-7 43-23 -9 48 20 11 18 14.5 3.5 W W O 0
Dec 04, 2010 04:00 Sat 14 2010 NEV LTCH away 0-7 14-7 7-3 14-0 35-17 -10 70.5 18 8 -18.5 -5.25 -13.25 W W U 0
Oct 29, 2016 12:00 Sat 9 2016 PNST PUR away 7-7 10-10 24-7 21-0 62-24 -14.5 58 38 23.5 28 25.75 2.25 W W O 0
Nov 19, 2016 01:00 Sat 12 2016 IOWA ILL away 0-0 7-0 7-0 14-0 28-0 -10.5 45 28 17.5 -17 0.25 -17.25 W W U 0
Nov 02, 2019 03:30 Sat 10 2019 KAST KAN away 7-3 10-0 7-0 14-7 38-10 -6 55 28 22 -7 7.5 -14.5 W W U 0
Oct 16, 2021 12:00 Sat 7 2021 TXAM MIZ away 21-0 7-7 7-7 0-0 35-14 -11.0 59.5 21 10.0 -10.5 -0.25 -10.25 W W U 0
Nov 30, 2024 07:00 Sat 14 2024 FLA FLST away 7-0 7-0 3-3 14-8 31-11 -16.5 46 20 3.5 -4 -0.25 -3.75 W W U 0
Nov 08, 2025 12:00 Sat 11 2025 SMU BCOL away 10-0 7-6 14-0 14-7 45-13 -10.5 54.5 32 21.5 3.5 12.5 -9.0 W W O 0
 
Oct 24, 2026 03:30 Sat 8 2026 BYU CFL away - - - - - -7.5 43.5

Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take #387 Michigan State Spartans over UCLA Bruins (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 24, CBS)

UCLA has been a pleasant surprise in the Big Ten this season, standing as the only unbeaten team in either the Big Ten or SEC. Still, this is a hefty number to lay with a backup quarterback. The Bruins were one-dimensional against Wisconsin, and I expect Michigan State to make running the football difficult again.

The Spartans are rebuilding under a new coach, but they’ve shown they can compete, taking Illinois and Northwestern down to the wire. I expect another competitive effort here, with Michigan State keeping the final margin within 7–10 points.

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UCLA seems like a very solid pick to cover the spread against Michigan State this Saturday at the Rose Bowl. UCLA comes into the game with a perfect 6-0 record while Michigan State sits at 2-5 overall and 0-4 in Big Ten play. UCLA’s defense has been dominant all season long and ranks among the top teams in the country at limiting offensive production. The Bruins just rolled Wisconsin 17-7 and should have no problem shutting down an inconsistent Spartan offense. UCLA can win the battle up front on offense as well with a bruising running game led by Wayne Knight and his 571 yards on the ground and 6.8 yards per carry. Michigan State’s defense has struggled to slow down teams who can methodically work down the field on long drives. Sparty also just made a cross-country trip to play Northwestern in which they lost in the final seconds. UCLA won 38-13 last year in East Lansing, and the Bruins have all the advantages in this game. They have the talent, they have the confidence and they have home field advantage. UCLA should be able to set the tone early with the run, control the ball, and creep away as their stifling defense forces the Spartans into passing situations. Take UCLA to win and cover the spread Saturday.

OVER 53.5

Detroit's offense is averaging nearly 33 PPG and Goff has been surgical with 12 TD passes and zero turnovers. Now he gets an extra week to prepare for a Green Bay defense whose recent improvement came against backup QBs and a struggling Dallas attack. That's a different assignment than dealing with this Lions offense. The problem for Detroit? Its defense is surrendering more than 400 yards per game, giving Love and Green Bay plenty of opportunities to answer. With Jacobs expected back, the Packers have another weapon to keep the scoreboard moving. This one has shootout written all over it. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER 53.5. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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Tampa Bay Getting the Points in Charlotte Is the Quieter Ticket Against a Short Home Favorite

Tampa Bay is 1-5 and Carolina is 3-2. The number is sitting around a field goal at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina opened closer to 3.5 and has settled near 3 or 2.5. A short home favorite against a division road dog that can still run the ball is not a number that needs to be laid just because the building is in Charlotte and the Panthers are sitting atop the NFC South early. The points are the side if the hook stays at 2.5 or better.

Bryce Young and the Panthers are scoring 29.2 points a game and moving the ball at roughly 404 yards, ranking near the top of the league in both. Tampa is at 19.8 points and about 293 yards, but the run game remains viable at 128 yards and 4.8 a carry, with Bucky Irving carrying the bulk of the load. Baker Mayfield has been limited by the thumb injury and is expected back, though the Bucs have used other options and will be without key pieces like Emeka Egbuka. Carolina’s defense is allowing 24.6 points and has been soft against the run, giving up around 132 yards and over 5 yards a carry. Tampa does not need to win by a field goal. They need the final margin to stay inside the number. A competitive division game between two teams that have already traded results in this series more often than the short favorite covers is the profile.

Tampa Bay’s ground game is the clearest path. They rank in the top tier in rushing yards and yards per carry while their defense has held opponents to just 75.5 rushing yards per game, second in the league. Carolina’s offense is explosive—Bryce Young has been efficient and the unit ranks second in total yards—but their defensive front has not consistently shut down the run. That creates a structural edge for a road team that can control the clock and stay within a short number.

Recent series history supports the competitive script. The last meeting was a 16-14 Bucs win in Tampa. Before that, Carolina took a 23-20 decision in Charlotte. Those are not blowouts. Across the last several meetings the margins have often stayed inside a field goal or small window, even as the Bucs have taken the majority of recent results. The all-time series is essentially even. Division games between these clubs rarely produce the kind of one-sided outcome a short home favorite needs to cash cleanly.

The market has not moved the number off the short side despite Tampa’s record. Public money is still leaning Carolina. The points have been the quieter ticket when the favorite is being asked to cover a field goal or less against a road team that can control the ground game.

Bet the road underdog of three points or fewer in a division game. That look since the early 2010s: 19-10 ATS (65.5 percent). At -110, 19 wins and 10 losses is +7.6 units, ROI=26.2 percent. Tampa is getting the points. Carolina is laying the short number at home.

Bet against a short home favorite of three points or fewer when the underdog has shown it can run the ball at 4.5 yards or better. Tampa’s ground game is still functional. That situation since the early 2010s: 17-9 ATS (65.4 percent) for the dog. At -110 that is +6.5 units, ROI=25.0 percent.

Shop the hook. If it is +2.5 or +3, the value is cleaner. If it drops to +1.5 with heavy juice, the edge shrinks. Confirm Mayfield’s status and any late defensive news on both sides. A backup quarterback or missing offensive pieces changes the side more for the favorite than the dog here. The house does not care that Carolina is sitting atop the division early. The total and the short number are already on the sheet. The points are the quieter play.

My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over San Francisco at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We cashed a ticket fading the 49ers on Monday Night Football as they won but failed to cover against the Commanders. Still undefeated on the season, I think the Niners are ripe for the 'upset' as they head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta is coming off a tough home loss to the Bears last week. That marked its second straight loss both SU and ATS and it has quickly fallen out of favor with most bettors following a brief surge that saw it win consecutive primetime games in Green Bay and New Orleans. I still think the Falcons are a good team with plenty of weapons on offense and a competitive defense led by an underrated coordinator in Jeff Ulbrich. Look for the Falcons to scheme up a gameplan to take San Francisco down to the wire at the very least on Sunday, noting that this will only be the Niners second true road game of the season (they won the other by a field goal in Seattle two weeks ago). Take Atlanta (8*).

Michigan State vs UCLA NCAAF Free Pick

The Angle(s): The UCLA Bruins haven't missed a beat with Ty Dieffenbach under center, as he threw for 264 yards in his first start while the defense held Wisconsin to just 214 total yards. UCLA has covered every game this season.

The Michigan State Spartans make the cross-country trip on a five-game skid, and after back-to-back gut-punch losses to Illinois and Northwestern by a combined four points, and I expect a deflated group. Their ground game has stalled since losing running back Cam Edwards, and they've dropped 13 straight against ranked opponents. UCLA also cruised in this matchup last year, winning by 25 points in East Lansing.

The Bet: UCLA ATS (3%).

#340 ASA FREE PLAY ON Toledo -3 over Western Michigan, Saturday at 12 PM ET

Our power ratings have Toledo as the best team in the MAC and getting them at home with a short number here is worth a play.  Both these teams are 5-2 on the year but the Rockets are vastly superior in the stats.  Despite their 2 losses, they’ve outgained every team they’ve faced this season including Michigan State on the road in week 1 where Toledo had a +1.9 YPP advantage.  For the season, the Rockets have a +2.2 YPP margin (WMU is +0.4) and they are +137 YPG (WMU -14 YPG).  They rank in the top 25 in offensive YPG and YPP and top 35 defensively in those 2 categories.  This defense matches up very well vs Western Michigan.  The Broncos offense hasn’t been great (120th in total offense) and if they can’t run the ball, they’re in trouble.  WMU averages just 157 YPG passing (128th) and they are facing a Toledo defense that ranks #2 nationally in overall success rate and #1 in defensive rush success rate.  Needless to say, we think the Broncos will struggle on offense.  Both defenses are very good, but Toledo has a big offensive edge.  While WMU ranks 120th in total offense, the Rockets rank 23rd in total offense and YPP offense.  Unlike Western, they are very balanced averaging 186 YPG rushing and 273 YPG passing.  They have a huge edge at QB where starter John Alan Richter has thrown for 1,900 yards with 14 TD’s and 1 interception.  His counterpart for WMU, Broc Lowry, has just over 1,000 yards passing and 8 TD’s.  We’re getting some value here with Toledo as a short home favorite as they were favored by 13.5 points @ Western Michigan last year.  They lost that game 14-13, so some extra motivation, but now they’re back at home where they’ve dominated the Broncos winning 14 of the last 17 meetings dating back to 1992.  Lay the small number with the Rockets.

1*

Cincinnati +12 (-110)

Texas Tech is undefeated, but the résumé is thin. They haven’t played anyone yet, and now they head to Nippert Stadium for the first time. It’s not an easy place to play.

We saw how this matchup goes last year. The Bearcats lost 44-41 but covered the 3.5-point spread, and there’s no reason this one can’t follow a similar script. Both teams have great offenses, and both have defensive questions. Texas Tech struggles against the pass, and Cincinnati’s defense is leaky. But we love a dog that can score.

Cincinnati is coming off back-to-back road losses, so getting back home should be a welcome change. Texas Tech can stop the run, which is a strength of this Bearcats offense. Even if Cincinnati is forced to become one-dimensional, we know Texas Tech’s pass defense is the weak spot.

This has shootout written all over it, and Cincinnati’s offense can keep pace. Twelve points is too many for a home dog that can put up points.

We’ll take Cincinnati +12 (-110).

Let’s cash some tickets!