Today’s Best Free Sports Betting Picks and Predictions From Our Experts

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Minnesota Twins -106

The New York Mets finally ended their 12-game losing streak with a 3-2 win over the Twins yesterday.  But I expect the Twins to bounce back today and take this series thanks to their big advantage on the mound.

Joe Ryan is one of the best starters in baseball going 2-2 with a 3.29 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in five starts this season.  Ryan has allowed just 5 earned runs and 12 base runners with 18 K's in 16 innings in his last three starts.  He held the Mets to one earned run in 5 innings in his lone career start against them.

The Mets will call up Christian Scott and move David Peterson to the bullpen.  Scott is 0-3 with a 4.56 ERA in nine career starts in the big leagues.  The Mets are really struggling at the plate scoring just 1.9 runs per game in their last 13 games.  They just lost Francisco Lindor to a hamstring injury yesterday to make matters worse.  Bet the Twins Thursday.

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Ricky's 1* play on NY.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- New York is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games.

- Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New York.

- New York is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games against Atlanta.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

1* Free Pick on Wolves +2½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1* MLB  - Twins/Mets FREE PICK on Twins -109

Dave's Thursday Free Play:

1* on Pirates/Rangers UNDER 7.5

The Key: Both Bubba Chandler and Jacob DeGrom should have their way with these 2 suspect lineups tonight.  Chandler is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in 4 starts for the Pirates this year.  DeGrom is 1-0 with a 2.29 ERA in 4 starts for the Rangers.  The Pirates have a 3.65 ERA and the Rangers have a 3.09 ERA as bullpens.  Take the UNDER.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Denver Nuggets -2

The Denver Nuggets blew a 19-point lead in Game 2 and a chance to take a commanding 2-0 series lead.  They are a resilient bunch and after getting called out by McDaniels for their lack of defense, I expect them to respond tonight.  The Nuggets were one of the best road teams in the NBA this season going 26-15 SU & 24-17 ATS on the highway.  The Timberwolves went just 18-23 ATS at home this season.  Denver won both meetings in Minnesota this season.  Give me the Nuggets.

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Mikey Sports FREE NBA play Thursday 4-23-26

Cleveland -2 1/2

Mikey is passing with premium picks on Thursday!  Check back on Friday!

Avalanche vs Kings 
10 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Kings priced as a 140-underdog.

NHL Underdog Betting Algorithm Performance

This NHL betting algorithm has delivered impressive results for those targeting underdog teams in specific situations. Over its application, the algorithm has produced a 38-29 record, translating to a 57% win rate. Bets have averaged a +131 underdog price, resulting in a robust 23% return on investment (ROI). For Dime Bettors, this approach has yielded $25,200 in profits, while those wagering $50 per game have earned $1,260.

Algorithm Criteria

Bet on teams that are allowing 2.85 or more goals per game (GPP).

The selected team and its opponent must have combined for a total of three goals in each of their last two games.

The game must be scheduled in the second half of the NHL season including the playoffs.

My top NHL totals bet for tonight is the Under in the Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings matchup, and I’m telling you, this one feels like it’s got “low-scoring grind” written all over it. The Avs already lead the series 2-0, and both of those games have been straight-up nail-biters that ended 2-1, one of them in overtime. If you’ve watched any playoff hockey over the years, you know the drill: once the postseason hits, offenses go into hiding, defenses tighten like a vice, and the total goals per game drops noticeably compared to the regular season. We’re talking historical trends where playoff games average about 20-25 percent fewer goals overall, with unders cashing at a solid clip once the intensity ramps up and teams start playing for every inch of ice.

This series has been the poster child for that trend so far. Colorado’s got all the star power in the world, but they’re running into a Kings squad that’s built for these tight, structured battles at home. LA’s not going to roll over, but they’re also not the type to suddenly turn this into a track meet, they’ve got the goaltending and system play to keep things ugly and low-event. Throw in the fact that playoff hockey historically sees fewer power-play opportunities (teams get disciplined real quick when every mistake can end their season), and you’ve got the perfect recipe for another one of those 2-1 or 3-2 snoozers. It’s almost funny how these two keep flirting with the net but then remember they’re in the playoffs and slam the brakes.

Compare that to the rest of the slate and it stands out even more. Buffalo and Boston have been a little more wide-open lately, and Carolina-Ottawa has had its moments of chaos, but nothing matches the defensive chokehold we’ve seen in Colorado-LA. The key angle here is simple: when a series starts this tight and the home team is desperate to push back without overcommitting, the under has been money in recent postseasons, especially in Western Conference matchups where coaching staffs live and die by neutral-zone play. I’m not chasing fireworks tonight, I’m betting on the grind.

So if you’re scanning the board for a totals spot that actually makes sense with how these games have played out, the Under on Avs-Kings is where my money’s going. Playoff hockey loves to remind us that less is sometimes more, and right now this series is delivering that lesson with a side of comedy. Bet smart, and may your ticket be one of the lucky ones that hits when everyone else is waiting for the goal horn that never comes.

My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Boston at 7 pm et on Thursday.

The Bruins did a nice job shaking off a blown third period lead in Game 1, responding with a 4-2 win in Game 2 on Tuesday. Now Boston returns home, where it has been incredibly stingy this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. The Sabres have played to a slightly lower average total on the road compared to at home this season and I think we'll see this series take a lower-scoring turn as the scene shifts to TD Garden for Game 3 on Thursday. Off an 'under' in Game 2, it's worth noting we've seen 'unders' come in bunches for the Bruins lately as they've posted four 'under' streaks lasting three games going back to February 26th. Since scoring 15 goals over a three-game stretch from April 8th to 13th, the Sabres have now produced just nine goals over their last three contests. Boston has yielded just eight goals over its last four home contests. Take the under (8*).

PSP Data Driven 1* Knicks.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. New York is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games. New York is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.

For my best free pick on the board here for Thursday in NBA Playoff basketball I am looking at the Toronto Raptors hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cavs were one of the worst cover teams in the NBA this season but as of late they have caught fire covering 5 of the last 6 games. Toronto just 1-3 last 4 ATS. Toronto is at home this crowd should be rocking and I expect the best game of the season from the Toronto Raptors who always seem to float under the bettors radars. Look for a close game with Toronto pulling away with under 2 minutes to go.

Play on the Toronto Raptors plus the points rotation #530

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