Free Sports Picks – Football Betting Tips, College Football Predictions & NFL Picks
The set-up: I like the Spurs to defend their home-court here. The Celtics have won two straight, most recently a 119-103 win over the Bulls, but I expect a step back here finally on this Western swing. The Spurs are only 3-5 at home, but they enter off a 121-101 victory over the Wizards on Tuesday. These teams numbers are similar (Boston concedes 109.9 PPG, while San Antonio allows 110.6.)
The pick: The Celtics though have two whole nights off after this non-conference road matchup, before a huge game at home against the defending champion Lakers. Can anyone say "look-ahead" spot?! The Spurs now settle in for a long home stretch and I expect them to make the most of it here. Consider the home side in this one.
The is a 1* FREE PLAY on the Spurs.
Sacramento vs Orlando
Amway Center, Orlando, FL
7:00 PM EST, January 27, 2021
3% Best bet on the Sacramento Kings using the money line
The Kings are 6-10 SUATS on the season and will be looking to end a four-game road losing streak when they take on the Orlando Magic Wednesday. The Kings are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in five road games this season. This is a road game they can win.
The Kings defense does not pressure the ball as much as the NBA league average. They rank 26th forcing 13.1 TPG and will match up against the Magic offense, who ranks 5th-best averaging just 13.6 TPG on the season. However, the Magic are 1-11 ATS when facing a team that is averaging 14 or fewer forced turnovers-per-game in games played over the last two seasons.
The Kings are well-rested playing only their fifth game in the past two weeks. They have done well in rested situations sporting a 47-18-2 ASTS record in road games and having played five or fewer games over the last two weeks.
Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Dallas Mavericks +2.5
It's definitely scary to step in front of the Utah Jazz with the way they are playing right now. They are 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall. But this feels like the perfect spot to do it.
The Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Knicks 108-94 last night. The game wasn't as lopsided as the final score would indicate. In fact, the Jazz had to erase a 13-point halftime deficit, and they were still trailing entering the 4th quarter. So they were forced to play their starters extended minutes.
Now the Jazz have to face a rested Dallas Mavericks team that had yesterday off. It's also the healthiest the Mavericks have been all season. They are expected to get Powell, Richardson and Finney-Smith back in the lineup today. The only key player they may still be missing is Maxi Klieber.
The Mavericks are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 road games, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games this season. Dallas is 25-10-1 ATS in its last 36 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Jazz are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last five games when playing on zero rest. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.
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Dave's Wednesday Free Play:
1* on Utah State -6.5
The Key: The Utah State Aggies had gone 11-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in its previous 11 games overall prior to losing each of its last 2 games to Colorado State and UNLV. Now the Aggies should give a big effort tonight to get back in the win column and avenge their 56-59 loss to UNLV on Monday. Utah State gets to play the Rebels again today to make things right. This is a UNLV team that is down this season at 6-6 and getting too much credit for its 5-game winning streak that has featured victories over New Mexico twice, Benedictine and St. Katherine. The Aggies are 9-2 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites. Take Utah State.
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Orlando Magic -1.5
The Orlando Magic are getting healthy and have their Big 3 of Vucevic, Fournier and Gordon in tact. They can beat anyone on a given night with these three in the lineup. And they certainly can handle the struggling Sacramento Kings tonight. The Kings are 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They are the worst defensive team in the NBA and have allowed 115 or more points in 12 of their 16 games this season. They give up 121.2 points per game and 49.4% shooting. It's just hard to back your money with a team that defends this poorly. Orlando handles teams like Sacramento. The Magic are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games against a team with a losing record. Give me the Magic.
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Towson @ James Madison (4:00 PM EST)
Play On: Towson +3
The Towson Tigers travel to James Madison to take on the Dukes on Wednesday night. Towson is 3-7 SU overall this year while James Madison comes in with a 7-5 SU overall record on the season. Towson is 10-1 ATS last 3 years when revenging a home loss vs an opponent. James Madison is 107-153 ATS last 260 home games. Towson is 9-4 ATS last 13 games after an ATS win. James Madison is 8-21 ATS last 29 games after a SU win. James Madison is 3-10 ATS last 13 home games. James Madison is 5-21 ATS last 26 games at home after 3 or more consecutive road games. 78% of the public is on James Madison but the line has fallen from 4 to 2 1/2 or 3. We'll gladly take the other side. We'll recommend a small play on Towson today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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1* Free Sharp Play on Virginia Tech +1½ -110
The Hokies (+1.5) are worth a look as a small road dog against the Irish in Wednesday's ACC college hoops action. Good time to buy low on Virginia Tech after an ugly 18-point loss at Syracuse on Saturday and sell high on Notre Dame after a couple of convincing wins against BC and Miami. I just don't think the Irish are that good. They are just 2-5 in ACC play compared to the Hokies who are 5-2. Look for Va Tech to win this one rather easily. Play the Hokies +1.5!
The Wednesday comp play in English Premier League Soccer is on Chelsea at 1:00 eastern. The Blue is one of the most disappointing teams in the premier league and their last loss to Leicester City was the final nail in the coffin for former coach Lampard. So now they play with shock value off the firing and we should see a new approach here against a Wolverhampton team also struggling mightily of late. Chelsea has won 2 of the last 3 in the series and with the home field advantage look for Chelsea to put forth a more spirited effort and get the win today. Rob V- GC Sports
Free Pick: CHELSEA Money Line -143 - Rejuvenated by the managerial change from Frank Lampard to Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea will play a "rally the troops" games here on their home pitch. By the way, as rocky as Chelsea's season has been they do have a positive goal differential of about a goal per match when on their home pitch while Wolverhampton has a negative goal differential of about a goal per game when on enemy pitch. The home club prevails in this one and is worth the price given the situation. Free Pick: CHELSEA Money Line -143
The Warriors clobbered the Wolves by a 130-108 count the night before last in the first of back to back games in this series. Note: Warriors are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite and are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite and are a bank roll depleting 16-33-1 ATS in their last 50 games following a ATS win. I know the recency bias of the last game between these teams might cause some hestinecy on taking points, however on closer inspection of the results its obvious to me Minnesota has the ability to hang around and get uis the cover. ( The Warriors outshot the Timberwolves 49.4 percent to 41.5 percent from the field and outscored them 42-24 on 3-pointers. I don't see that sceanrio repeating itself again, and Warriors now ready for regression to the mean)
According to SRS Home data the line should be closer to -8 thus there is slight value here taking 9 or more points. ( Minn SRS-8.38 vs GS SRS- -0.85) (Divergence for home court to be equated at -1.5 instead of usual -3 because of lack of true home court advantage because of attendence.
Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. GOLDEN STATE is 15-33 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons
NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 17-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Minnesota to cover
This is a Free play on Chelsea.
Chelsea got off to a solid start, but with all the money spent on high end talent in the offseason expectations were not met. Recent struggles have cost manager and former star player Frank Lampard his job, and former PSG manager Thomas Tuchel will take over. This is an opportunity for young Chelsea players to make an impression with their new manager, and we should see a solid effort from the Blues at home versus Wolves. Wolverhampton is not a strong away side, with a goal differential of -7 in nine matches. Chelsea has a solid home record, with a goal differential of +8 in nine home matches.