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Dave’s Thursday Free Play:
1* on Cardinals/Padres UNDER 9
The Key: I like the price we are getting with the UNDER 9 runs tonight after these teams combined for 11 runs yesterday. The total appears to be inflated because of it. Zach Davies is 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 12 starts for the Padres this year. Adam Wainwright has had a nice comeback season, going 5-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 10 starts, and 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 4 road starts. Wainwright is 7-4 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 12 lifetime starts against the Padres. Davies has yielded exactly 2 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts against the Cardinals. Take the UNDER.
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Philadelphia Eagles +6.5 over San Francisco 49ers (8:20p.m., Sunday, October 4 NBC) The Eagles are a mess at the moment but they are not as banged up as the 49ers and thus I think they will be able to keep this game close on Sunday night. San Francisco comes home this week after back-to-back games at MetLife Stadium. Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against San Francisco. The 49ers are 7-19 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 games as a home favorite. This line has jumped 3 points with how bad the Eagles have been playing but I feel now it is too high. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card. 4-0 on top play in college football this year and now is the time to sign-up with a veteran handicapper that has 49 years of experience.
Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Thursday 10-1-20
Milwaukee @ LA Dodgers (10:05 PM EST)
Play On: LA Dodgers -1.5 -115
The Milwaukee Brewers take on the Dodgers in Los Angeles in Game 2 on Thursday night. The Dodgers took Game 1 by a 4-2 score. Milwaukee is 29-32 SU overall this year while the LA Dodgers come in with a 44-17 SU overall record on the season. Milwaukee is scoring only 2.1 runs per game past 7 games overall. LA Dodgers are scoring 5.8 runs per game overall this year, 5.8 runs per game at home this season, 6 runs per game against right handed starters, 5.7 runs per game past 7 games overall, 5.8 runs per game on grass and 5.9 runs per game at night. LA Dodgers are allowing only 3.5 runs per game overall this year, 3.3 runs per game at home this season, 3.7 past 7 games overall, 3.5 runs per game on grass and 3.9 runs per game at night. Woodruff has a 7.94 ERA in his 1 career start vs the Dodgers. Kershaw has a 3.02 ERA in 17 starts vs the Brewers. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers on the run line tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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The set-up: If you don't mind laying chalk, I think the Cubs do in fact offer great value to bounce back here with their "ace" on the mound. Yu Darvish has a 2.40 ERA with 211 K's and only 21 walks over 157 2/3's innings since the 2019 All-Star Break. Darvish has struggled in the playoffs in the past, but the veteran enters here on top form and I think he can easily get the better of his rookie counterpart today.
The pick: Sixto Sanchez is only 22. The Marlins won the first game of this series 5-1, but a predictable letdown is imminent in my opinion. Chicago is still 13-2 SU the last 15 in this series at home and I expect the Cubs to respond and send this series to a decisive Game 3!
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the Cubs.
** Thursday Featured free Play **The La Liga Soccer comp play is on Sevilla at 1:00 eastern. Just a week ago Sevilla hung tough losing in extra time to the best team on the globe in Bayern Munich in the Super Cup. They followed up that heart breaking loss with an opening game 3-1 win over Cardiz. Now they are home for Levante who bounced back from a home loss with a 3-1 road win. Levante finished 12 th in the table last season and it will be tough for them to win a 2nd straight road win over a top team like Sevilla who is unbeaten here in the series over the last 5 meetings. Look for Sevilla to secure the full time win. Jump on now and Cash out. For the Soccer Comp play. Go with Sevilla. Rob V- GC Sports. On Thursday we have a Double System NFL Side, MLB Top play and Soccer Blowout.
Alabama is off a down year and it failed to cover in its first game. End of the Saban dynasty? Hardly. The Tide are loaded and ready to make amends. Sure, they failed to cover at Missouri. (They won 38-19, while laying -28.5.) However, the Tide were up 28-3 at halftime of that game. So, I feel it was more a matter of letting their foot off the gas. Saban noted as much, stating that: "The intensity dropped and we didn’t play well in the second half." That should work in our favor here, as Saban will be anxious to have his team keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. While the Aggies are no slouches, they're overmatched in this one. Consider laying the points.
My free play is on the Mil Brewers at 10:08 ET.
The Brewers, like the Astros, made the expanded playoff field in 2020 with a losing record (both at 29-31). The Astros KO'd the Twins by winning two straight (then again, the Twins have now lost 18 straight postseason games!) while the Brewers find themselves down 0-1 against the Dodgers, after losing 4-2 in last night's Game 1. Wouldn't the Brewers have liked to draw the Twins (I know they are in different leagues) instead of the MLB-best LA Dodgers (43-17 regular season record was on pace for a 116-win season over 162 games!).
It's "win or go home time" for Milwaukee as it sends Brandon Woodruff (3-5, 3.05 ERA) to the mound against LA's Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.16 ERA).Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note is, the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. Woodruff took the mound for 13 starts in 2020 (NEVER missed a turn) and while he won just THREE times and the Brewers went just 6-7 in his starts, that does NOT tell the whole story. He's allowed three ERs or less in 12 of those 13 starts, including out-dueling the Cards' Adam Wainwright last Saturday 2-0, when he pitched eight scoreless innings with a 10-1 KW ratio,
Kershaw and another "Kershaw-like" season, going 6-2 with a 0.84 WHIP and .194 BAA (5th time he's posted a BAA of under .200 in his career) to go along with his 2.16 ERA. However, Kershaw's playoff woes are well-documented. His 9-11 (4.43 ERA) postseason record is shockingly mediocre when compared to his Hall of Fame regular-season form (175-76, 2.43 ERA). Why not "take a shot" here and "go-against" Kershaw at this price?
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Miami at Chicago Cubs 2:08 ET
Cubs over Dolphins- Hey, I have a lot of respect for the Marlins and in my heart would love to see them advance but just not here. They have a tougher lineup than most realize and when they get ant kind of pitching they are dangerous. But, talking about pitching Yu Darvish (8-3, 2.01 ERA) who has bettered his career ERA by over a run but has struggles in playoff action going 2-4 with a 5.81 ERA in six starts four with the Dodgers in 2017 and twice with Texas in 2012 and 2016. Miami will start rookie Sixto Sanchez (3-2, 3.46) who has the stuff but wilts after five innings work. In his first five innings in seven starts his ERA is 1.69 and in innings six and seven his ERA balloons to 11.57. This one's tough because you have to lay-it! Take the CUBS!
Thursday night football and we get the Broncos 0-3 (2-1 ATS) vs. the Jets 0-3 (0-3 ATS)
Both teams are struggling and desperate coming into this matchup. Both teams are 0-3 and dealing with a multitude of injuries.
These teams rank at the bottom of the league in a majority of offensive stats. The Jets score 12.3 points per game, which is fewer than any other team in the league. At 30th in points per game, the Denver offense hasn’t played much better.
Head coach Vic Fangio announced Tuesday that Brett Rypien will get his first start at quarterback. Rypien was just activated from the practice squad earlier this week, and may take awhile to adjust to game speed.
Both of these teams are converting less than 35% of third downs, so they are likely to struggle at turning any offensive success into points.
The total is set low, but take the under in this matchup of poor offenses.
Play the UNDER 41.5.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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