Handicapping Myths 1.1 – Playing Favorites

This is a free play on Under.

It's almost March, and at this time of year we expect to see more emphasis on defense. Historically that has been the case when these two teams have faced each other late in the season. The last two meetings went over the total, but both of those games were played much earlier in the season. The previous four meeting were in February or March, and all four of those games went under. These teams are both playing great defense, each allowing roughly 65 points per game over their last five overall. Iowa has gone under in five straight overall, and the under is 6-2 in Michigan's last eight overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

The Knicks are ranked #1 in the NBA in scoring defense, and they are ranked 30th in scoring. That alone might be tempting enough to bet the under, but history shows us there are plenty of trends that are worth noting. Nine of the last 10 head to head meetings have gone under, and the under is 21-8 in the Knicks last 29 overall. They have gone under in seven straight following a loss, and the under is 10-1 in their last 11 versus a team with a winning record.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the Jets +1.5. 

The Habs have fired their coach off another disturbing loss at Ottawa, and yet they come into Winnipeg as the favorite? The Jets have the reigning Vezina winner in goal, and they have won six of their last 10 overall. All four losses during that span came in games decided by one goal. Montreal has won five of the last six meetings, but three of those games were decided by one goal. The under is 11-5 in the Canadiens last 16 road games, and the underdog is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the Under.

The Habs have fired their coach off another disturbing loss at Ottawa, and yet they come into Winnipeg as the favorite? The Jets have the reigning Vezina winner in goal, and they have won six of their last 10 overall. All four losses during that span came in games decided by one goal. Montreal has won five of the last six meetings, but three of those games were decided by one goal. The under is 11-5 in the Canadiens last 16 road games, and the underdog is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the Red Wings +1.5.

I bet on the Wings in their last game, and they won outright at home versus Florida. Here is what I said before that game: "At first glance, you might think that the 4-11-3 Red Wings would be a terrible team to bet on this year. That hasn't been the case if you are taking them on the puckline. They are 11-7 ATS so far, losing seven games by just one goal. They have played Florida four times, losing three of four games. All three of those losses came by one goal. As poorly as Detroit has played, their goaltenders have actually been pretty good. All three of their netminders have a GAA below .300, while Florida's starter Sergei Bobrovsky has a GAA of 3.33."

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Minnesota.

Two struggling teams meet in the BIG10 tonight, but the Gophers appear to be a well deserved home favorite. Here is what I said prior to their last home win: "The Gophers have been world beaters at home, with wins over Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa. Overall they have won 12 of their 13 home games this season. The home team has won five of the last six head to head meetings, and the Gophers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Minnesota scores an average of over 81 points per game at home, while conceding just 68 points per game." The Wildcats are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall, and they are just 1-8 on the road.

GL,

Jesse Schule