Handicapping Myths 1.1 – Playing Favorites

This is an 8* play on the Baylor Bears.

Baylor will be a double digit underdog in their second round matchup versus Gonzaga, despite the fact that 11 of their 13 losses this season have come by fewer than 10 points. Gonzaga has won three straight head to head meetings versus Baylor since 2006, but they failed to cover in two of those games. All three of those contests were decided by fewer than 10 points. The Bulldogs have a history of coming into the tournament as an overvalued favorite, and that is evidenced by the fact that they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in their last six versus the WCC.

Take BAY.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Minnesota +1.5.

I bet the under in Minnesota's game last night, and here is what I said prior to the game: "The Washington Capitals are in a battle with the Islanders for first place in the Metropolitan Division, while the Minnesota Wild are gunning for one of the Wild Card spots in the Western Conference. In a high stakes battle in the nation's capital, we expect scoring chances to be at a premium tonight. The under is 5-1-1 in the Wild's last seven games as a road underdog. The under is 5-2-1 in the Wild's last eight road games." The Wild earned a hard fought two points winning by a score of 2-1, and taking over the final Wild Card spot in the West. I don't expect them to give it up just 24 hours later, and I like Minnesota to earn at least a point tonight. 

Take MINNY.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on LSU.

The Tigers opened the tournament with a 79-74 win over Yale. They failed to cover as a six point favorite in that game, but they did open up a 16 point lead at halftime. I expect this talented LSU team to jump out to another fast start against a Maryland team that struggled on offense early on in their win over Belmont. The Bruins took a 40-34 lead into halftime, but Maryland just barely escaped with a 79-77 win. The Terrapins are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win, and they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.

Take LSU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 7* play on Montreal.

My total of the year was a winner on under 5.5 the last time these teams met. Here is what I said prior to the game: "The Habs are barely holding on in the Wild Card race, and the Columbus Blue Jackets are hot on their heels. They can't afford to leave any points on the table, and they might be in for a battle here at the Islanders. New York has allowed fewer goals than any other team in the NHL this season. Carey Price has really stepped up his game for Montreal, winning three of his last five starts and allowing just four goals in those three games." Price is coming off a 28 save shutout in a 4-0 win over the Isles. Another dominant performance should be expected here at hom versus Buffalo.

Take MTL.

GL,

Jesse Schule