Handicapping Myths 1.1 – Playing Favorites
The business of betting on sports is a tricky one, just when you think you have it all figured out, you realize that you have so much more to learn. As a professional gambler by trade, I have been involved in serious sports betting since I was a kid. At the age of 37, I’m still learning, constantly looking for a new angle, or a trend that has yet to be exploited. I believe this is absolutely necessary to be successful, because the industry is constantly changing, and what works today, may not work tomorrow. If you stop learning, you will eventually fall behind, becoming obsolete, just like anything else in this life.
Myth #1: Sharps Don’t Play Favorites.
Perhaps the most common of all handicapping myths, is that it’s somehow considered sharp to play dogs, to take the points, to go with a long shot. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the flaw to this logic, underdogs lose more often than they win. That’s not to say that you shouldn’t occasionally play underdogs, but by playing them exclusively, you are setting yourself up for a world of hurt.
I play underdogs when I feel that their chances of winning are greater than the odds the casino is offering. Likewise, I play favorites when I see value, and I do so without limitations. Some players will set themselves a limit, such as “never play favorites of more than -$150″… not this guy!
This business is hard enough, the last thing you want to do is make it even harder by limiting yourself, and passing up on potential “easy” winners just because you don’t want to pay the price. There is no such thing as “too expensive”, or “too many points”.
Now of course by playing favorites, you have to hit a higher percentage to turn a profit, so before you start laying the chalk you have to take that into consideration. Anyone who has followed me over the years will know that I do not hesitate to play favorites, and when you look at my overall records, I have nothing to apologize for.
The bottom line is, playing favorites isn’t just for squares, despite what you may have heard. Successful gamblers will bet on any game, any event, any situation when they have odds in their favor.
If you have any questions, comments or anything to add to the subject, feel free to give me a shout on Facebook.
Good Luck,
Jesse Schule
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This is a Free play on Under in the AFCON Final.
The Final will feature Senegal (who come in off three straight 1-0 wins), and Algeria who have conceded just one goal in their last five matches. These teams played earlier in the tournament and Algeria won by a score of 1-0. Both these teams are excellent defensively, and it's likely going to take just one goal to win this Final. Algeria is 2-0-1 in the last three head to head meetings, and they posted a clean sheet in two of those matches.
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
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- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
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TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
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