Handicapping Myths 1.1 – Playing Favorites
The business of betting on sports is a tricky one, just when you think you have it all figured out, you realize that you have so much more to learn. As a professional gambler by trade, I have been involved in serious sports betting since I was a kid. At the age of 37, I’m still learning, constantly looking for a new angle, or a trend that has yet to be exploited. I believe this is absolutely necessary to be successful, because the industry is constantly changing, and what works today, may not work tomorrow. If you stop learning, you will eventually fall behind, becoming obsolete, just like anything else in this life.
Myth #1: Sharps Don’t Play Favorites.
Perhaps the most common of all handicapping myths, is that it’s somehow considered sharp to play dogs, to take the points, to go with a long shot. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the flaw to this logic, underdogs lose more often than they win. That’s not to say that you shouldn’t occasionally play underdogs, but by playing them exclusively, you are setting yourself up for a world of hurt.
I play underdogs when I feel that their chances of winning are greater than the odds the casino is offering. Likewise, I play favorites when I see value, and I do so without limitations. Some players will set themselves a limit, such as “never play favorites of more than -$150″… not this guy!
This business is hard enough, the last thing you want to do is make it even harder by limiting yourself, and passing up on potential “easy” winners just because you don’t want to pay the price. There is no such thing as “too expensive”, or “too many points”.
Now of course by playing favorites, you have to hit a higher percentage to turn a profit, so before you start laying the chalk you have to take that into consideration. Anyone who has followed me over the years will know that I do not hesitate to play favorites, and when you look at my overall records, I have nothing to apologize for.
The bottom line is, playing favorites isn’t just for squares, despite what you may have heard. Successful gamblers will bet on any game, any event, any situation when they have odds in their favor.
If you have any questions, comments or anything to add to the subject, feel free to give me a shout on Facebook.
Good Luck,
Jesse Schule
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
This is a 9* play on Cleveland to win.
The Browns offense struggled in Week 1 at home against the Titans, but part of the problem was that they were penalized 18 times for 182 yards. The pressure is on as they get set to take on the Jets on Monday Night Football, and this looks like a get right game for Cleveland. Sam Darnold is out and Le'Veon Bell is questionable, but the Jets injuries on defense might be even more significant. C.J. Mosely and Quinnen Williams will both be out for tonight's game, and the Bills really moved the ball in the second half last week after Mosely left. This should be good news for Nick Chubb, who ran for 75 yards on 17 carries in Week 1. I expect this game to be over at halftime, and that should mean a healthy workload for Chubb in the second half.
Take CLE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 5* play on Over 2.5.
The last time these two teams played, West Ham won by a score of 3-1. The Hammers are coming off three consecutive wins, scoring seven goals in those matches. Aston Villa scored twice in a home win over Everton in their last match at Villa Park, and given the history between these two teams I think it's unlikely that either side will post a clean sheet.
Take Over.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
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- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
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TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
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