Handicapping Myths 1.1 – Playing Favorites
The business of betting on sports is a tricky one, just when you think you have it all figured out, you realize that you have so much more to learn. As a professional gambler by trade, I have been involved in serious sports betting since I was a kid. At the age of 37, I’m still learning, constantly looking for a new angle, or a trend that has yet to be exploited. I believe this is absolutely necessary to be successful, because the industry is constantly changing, and what works today, may not work tomorrow. If you stop learning, you will eventually fall behind, becoming obsolete, just like anything else in this life.
Myth #1: Sharps Don’t Play Favorites.
Perhaps the most common of all handicapping myths, is that it’s somehow considered sharp to play dogs, to take the points, to go with a long shot. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the flaw to this logic, underdogs lose more often than they win. That’s not to say that you shouldn’t occasionally play underdogs, but by playing them exclusively, you are setting yourself up for a world of hurt.
I play underdogs when I feel that their chances of winning are greater than the odds the casino is offering. Likewise, I play favorites when I see value, and I do so without limitations. Some players will set themselves a limit, such as “never play favorites of more than -$150″… not this guy!
This business is hard enough, the last thing you want to do is make it even harder by limiting yourself, and passing up on potential “easy” winners just because you don’t want to pay the price. There is no such thing as “too expensive”, or “too many points”.
Now of course by playing favorites, you have to hit a higher percentage to turn a profit, so before you start laying the chalk you have to take that into consideration. Anyone who has followed me over the years will know that I do not hesitate to play favorites, and when you look at my overall records, I have nothing to apologize for.
The bottom line is, playing favorites isn’t just for squares, despite what you may have heard. Successful gamblers will bet on any game, any event, any situation when they have odds in their favor.
If you have any questions, comments or anything to add to the subject, feel free to give me a shout on Facebook.
Good Luck,
Jesse Schule
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This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go under the total.
The Warriors haven't been as dominant this season as they have been in recent years, and they come into Denver trailing the Nuggets by a half game for top spot in the West. Denver has been successful thanks to their 4th best defense that allows just 105.5 points per game. History tells us that these teams have played strong defense in past meetings. Three of the last four head to head meetings have gone under the total. Given that the winner of this game will take over first place in the Western Conference Standings, we could see a game with a playoff atmosphere. The under is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 home games versus teams with a winning road record. I think tonight's total looks a little high.
Take Under.
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Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on Over 139.5.
The Boilermakers are coming off an 84-80 win over Wisconsin, and high scoring games have been the norm for Purdue this year. They have gone over in six of their last eight overall, and the over is 5-1 in their last 6 home games versus teams with a losing road record. They have scored 79.4 points per game in their last five overall, but they have also conceded more than 70 points per game during that span. They scored exactly 82 points in each of their last two home games against Rutgers. The over is 6-1 in the Scarlet Knights last seven versus the Big Ten. Purdue won the last meeting 82-75, and I expect a similar score tonight.
Take Over.
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Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go Under the total.
The Anaheim Ducks have lost 11 straight overall, and they come into the Motor City as a desperate hockey club. They are still in the hunt, just two points out of a playoff spot, so there's no reason to expect them to give up on the season just yet. Offense has been hard to come by for the Ducks, ranking 30th in the NHL in scoring. Goals have been hard to come by for Detroit as well, and that's especially true in previous meetings with the Ducks. Anaheim is 3-1 in the last four meetings, and Detroit has only scored six goals in those games. Three of the four games went under the total. The under is 8-3-2 in the Ducks last 13 overall, and 34-15-2 in their last 51 road games.
Take Under.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
Top Cappers L7 Days
| Service | Profit |
|---|---|
| Ray Monohan | $974 |
| Ben Burns | $813 |
| Chip Chirimbes | $644 |
| Zack Cimini | $446 |
| Marc David | $347 |
| Stephen Nover | $302 |
| Jimmy Boyd | $202 |
| John Ryan | $153 |
| Matt Fargo | $30 |
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