Handicapping Myths 1.1 – Playing Favorites

This is a free play on TEX.

The Rangers crushed the Mariners in Game 2, and that momentum might carry over here in Game 3.

Nate Eovaldi will toe the slab for Texas, and he's 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his last five starts.

Seattle will hand the ball Bryce Miller, who was roughed up by the Yankees in his last start. He allowed eight runs on nine hits in 4  2/3 innings in the loss.

The Rangers are 20-8 in their last 28 home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DAL.

The Sun are 5-1, but a closer look at their schedule reveals that there might be more to the story. Not one of those five wins came against a team with a winning record. Only one of those five wins came by a margin wide enough to cover the spread here. Dallas has two losses, and the combined margin of defeat in those games is less than the spread for this game. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on COL.

The Royals are a favorite again today, and they are just 9-17 straight up in their last 26 games. As them to cover a runline and they are 5-21 ATS in those games. The Royals are 6-5 straight up in the last 11 head to head meetings, but only half of those wins came by more than one run. While Kyle Freeland has struggled on the road this season, that's out of character for him. The Royals have five wins in Brady Singer's 11 starts, but only one of those wins came by more than one run.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on CWS.

The Tigers have scored just one run in the first two games of this series, and they are on the verge of being swept.

Matthew Boyd will toe the slab for Detroit in Game 3, and he's struggled against the White Sox. Chicago's lineup has hit a combined .336 over 128 at bats versus Boyd.

The Sox hand the ball to Michael Kopech, who is 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA in his last five starts.

The Tigers are 8-22 in the last 30 meetings in Chicago.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Washington.

After splitting the first two games of this series, the Nats look good as an underdog in the rubber match Sunday.

Trevor Williams will toe the slab for Washington, and he's 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA in five home starts.

The Phillies hand the ball to Ranger Saurez, who is 0-2 with a 7.13 ERA in four starts. The Nationals lineup is batting .308 over a combined 52 at bats versus Suarez.

The Phillies have just three wins by more than one run in their last 19 games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

One of the stories in Game 1 was the Heat attempting an NBA Playoff record low two free throws. This is one of the factors that resulted in such a low score. Here is what I said prior to the game: "The Miami Heat lead the playoffs in three-point shooting, hitting 39 percent from beyond the arc. The Nuggets aren't far behind hitting 38.6 percent of their three-point attempts. The Heat come in averaging 112 points per game while Denver has averaged 116 points per game in the playoffs. The Joker has put up incredible numbers, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists. He's put up those numbers against the best defenders in the NBA. The Heat rank near the bottom in the NBA in rebounds per game, and have one of the league's smallest starting lineups. I expect Joker to put up video game numbers in this series, and I like the total to go over in Game 1." The total for Game 2 is several points lower than it was in Game 1, and I expect the Heat to get to the free throw line more often, and hit more threes in Game 2. Whatever the Heat do, I can't see them stopping Joker. I''l take the over here.

GL,

Jesse Schule