Handicapping Myths 1.2 – Parlays Are For Suckers.
Handicapping Myths 1.2 – Parlays Are For Suckers.
The business of betting on sports is a tricky one, just when you think you have it all figured out, you realize that you have so much more to learn. As a professional gambler by trade, I have been involved in serious sports betting since I was a kid. At the age of 37, I’m still learning, constantly looking for a new angle, or a trend that had yet to be exploited. I believe this is absolutely necessary to be successful, because the industry is constantly changing, and what works today, may not work tomorrow. If you stop learning, you will eventually fall behind, becoming obsolete, just like anything else in this life.
One of the most common mistakes that gamblers make, is setting out rules and guidelines that only limit their ability to turn a profit. I’m a firm believer that rules are meant to be broken, and following strict guidelines will only prevent you from taking advantage of every available opportunity. In this series of articles, I will discuss some of the most common “myths” that are associated with sports handicapping.
Myth #2: Parlays Are A Sucker Bet.
Unlike my last article, this particular myth isn’t completely false. For the most part, playing parlays isn’t a good idea. There are exceptions to every rule though, and I believe in certain situations a parlay could present better value than a straight bet.
I don’t play a lot of parlays, but when I do, it’s normally on the side and total of the same game as apposed to going for two outcomes in different games. The logic being that in certain cases, one outcome could directly influence the other, giving the player an added advantage on the house.
For example, if you have a team with a prolific offense taking on a team with a stellar defense, it would make sense that a low scoring game would favor the defensive team. It doesn’t always work out that way, but by focusing on these type of situations, you can improve your odds.
In the early days of online gambling, back in the mid 1990s, many sportsbooks didn’t allow you to parlay the side and total of the same game, because it was believed that this gave players too much of an advantage. I believe that these days almost all the larger casinos and sportsbooks accept such wagers.
The bottom line is, playing parlays isn’t something you should do every day, but don’t let anybody tell you that “only suckers play parlays”. Successful gamblers will bet on any game, any event, any situation when they have odds in their favor.
If you have any questions, comments or anything to add to the subject, feel free to give me a shout on Facebook.
Good Luck,
Jesse Schule
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
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Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
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AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
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TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
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| Ben Burns | $625 |
| Dave Price | $620 |
| Kyle Hunter | $563 |
| Jimmy Boyd | $403 |
| Marc Lawrence | $400 |
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