Handicapping Myths 1.3 – Stats Rule
Handicapping Myths 1.3 – Stats Rule
The business of betting on sports is a tricky one, just when you think you have it all figured out, you realize that you have so much more to learn. As a professional gambler by trade, I have been involved in serious sports betting since I was a kid. At the age of 37, I’m still learning, constantly looking for a new angle, or a trend that had yet to be exploited. I believe this is absolutely necessary to be successful, because the industry is constantly changing, and what works today, may not work tomorrow. If you stop learning, you will eventually fall behind, becoming obsolete, just like anything else in this life.
One of the most common mistakes that gamblers make, is setting out rules and guidelines that only limit their ability to turn a profit. I’m a firm believer that rules are meant to be broken, and following strict guidelines will only prevent you from taking advantage of every available opportunity. In this series of articles, I will discuss some of the most common “myths” that are associated with sports handicapping.
Myth #3: Stats Rule
Statistics can be an important tool that can prove very useful in predicting the outcome of any event, including contests in professional sports. It’s important to realize though, that you have to weigh all the variables and separate the relevant data from that which has little value. One of the most common mistakes that people make when handicapping sports, is to put too much emphasis on numbers that might not be as important as they might think.
The numbers never tell the whole story, and often other factors will out-weigh any of the stats. For example, a key injury has the potential to be a much bigger factor than any numbers you can possibly dig up. Weather conditions, roster moves, coaching decisions and a variety of situational and motivational factors may also play a role in determining the result of any competition or event.
If you were going to base your plays solely on statistics, you might as well have a computer do it for you. In fact, there are a handful of people out there that will tell you they have developed software that can accurately predict winners in professional sports. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the flaw in this plan, and those who make such claims should not be trusted.
When I am studying a game, there are certain statistics I use more than others. In baseball I focus mainly on pitching, looking at a pitcher’s previous record versus opponent, batter vs pitcher, and one stat that I find is often overlooked, is a pitcher’s splits in day/night. It’s very common that some Major League hurlers are completely different pitchers in the day than they are at night. I am far more concerned with how a pitcher has performed in recent starts, as opposed to his numbers for the season, and I am also careful to consider the opponent when looking at these numbers. For example, shutting out a last place team doesn’t carry as much weight as a dominant outing versus a division leading opponent.
In the NFL, I find that many handicappers focus on head-to-head records, which I find are almost always irrelevant. Things change fast in the NFL, so a team’s record versus a division rival in previous seasons doesn’t carry a lot of weight for me. The stats I pay more attention to include defense versus the run and pass, and a careful look at all the numbers for each team’s quarterback.
Hockey is a sport where I don’t put a lot of weight in any statistics, and I go almost entirely by feel, and situational/motivational factors. That seems to have been working for me, as I am coming off another stellar season with the NHL (+$17,040).
My advice to amateur handicappers would be to avoid falling in love with a play simply based on the numbers. Use simple common sense, play the devil’s advocate, and try to make a case against the team you want to bet on, and if you still like the play after weighing all the data, go for it!
If you have any questions, comments or anything to add to the subject, feel free to give me a shout on Facebook.
Good Luck,
Jesse Schule
Check out the Iceman's Premium Picks
Jesse Schule
HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF... +$2,017 March 2019 (74-51 Overall) +$10,368 March 2018 (85-53 Overall) +$6,007 March 2017 (63-49 Overall) +$17,533 March 2016 (72-40 Overall)
PREMIUM PICK STREAKS
All Sports Totals (+4918) 826-705 L1531 54%
Top NCAA-B Sides (+4176) 279-209 L488 57%
Basketball Totals (+4057) 250-192 L442 57%
NBA Totals (+4003) 243-188 L431 56%
Football Totals (+3704) 212-160 L372 57%
MLB Run Lines (+3244) 337-216 L553 61%
NCAA-F Totals (+3237) 129-88 L217 59%
Top Soccer Picks (+2848) 79-43 L122 65%
Top NHL Money Lines (+1856) 89-54 L143 62%
NFL Picks (+1464) 157-117 L274 57%
CFL Picks (+1203) 65-45 L110 59%
Top NFLX Picks (+533) 19-11 L30 63%
Short-Term Subscription Options
Get All The Iceman's plays with All Sports for one day - Only $88.
SPECIAL OFFER THIS WEEKEND ONLY!
From Now Until Midnight, Get ALL The Iceman's Premium Picks For The Entire Weekend (Fri-Mon) For ONLY $99. Exclusively
*This subscription currently includes 1 Soccer pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF...
+$29,340 with All 10* Premium Picks since 1/1/17.
+$55,840 with All 10* Premium Picks since 1/1/16.
+$60,480 with All 10* Premium Picks since 1/1/15.
*This subscription currently includes 1 Soccer pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
ALL SPORTS FOR 2 WEEKS FOR ALMOST HALF PRICE!
*This subscription currently includes 1 Soccer pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Long-Term Subscription Options
Now on a 107-72 run with my last 184 All Sports picks! $1,000/game players have cashed in $30,650 on my All Sports picks since 10/22/19!
This subscription includes EVERY PREMIUM PICK I release for the next 30 days! If for any reason I don't see value on the day's card and pass, another day will be added to your account.
Join now for only $13.30/day and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 1 Soccer pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
For a LIMITED TIME ONLY... you can get all The Iceman's NBA plays for 31 days for just $199.
Now on a 107-72 run with my last 184 All Sports picks! $1,000/game players have cashed in $30,650 on my All Sports picks since 10/22/19!
This subscription includes EVERY PREMIUM PICK I release for the next 90 days! If for any reason I don't see value on the day's card and pass, another day will be added to your account.
Join now for only $5.54/day and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 1 Soccer pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
THIS OFFER IS AVAILABLE ONLY UPON THE ICEMAN'S WRITTEN APPROVAL.
*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 Soccer, 1 NFL) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Now on a 107-72 run with my last 184 All Sports picks! $1,000/game players have cashed in $30,650 on my All Sports picks since 10/22/19!
This subscription includes EVERY PREMIUM PICK I release for the next 365 days! If for any reason I don't see value on the day's card and pass, another day will be added to your account.
Join now for only $2.74/day and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 Soccer, 1 NFL) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
PULVERIZING THE PIGSKIN ~ 80% WINNERS CFL 2015!
He's recognized as one of the sharpest football handicappers on the planet, and his abilities were on full display last season (11-3 OVERALL). Subscribe to all his 2018 season plays RIGHT NOW ... and you too could start PULVERIZING THE PIGSKIN!
**Top 10 NBA handicapper in 2016**
** Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals 2017**
The Iceman is off to an incredible start to the 2019 NBA Playoffs, winning six of his first seven picks. His Game of the Year was a double digit winner on the Milwaukee Bucks. Get all his NBA picks for the remainder of the post-season for Only $99! Offer ends Monday and midnight!
PICKS IN PROGRESS
This is a 5* play on over 2.25.
Bremen has been miserable defending this season, only Mainz has conceded more goals than Bremen. Monchengladbach has scored more that their fair share, tallying 53 goals in 27 matches. Bremen has scored four goals in their last three matches, so a clean sheet for either of these teams seems rather unlikely.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
Top Cappers L7 Days
| Service | Profit |
|---|---|
| Jim Feist | $338 |
| Sean Murphy | $247 |
| Mike Lundin | $172 |
| Jesse Schule | $100 |
FireFan
Recent Articles
