Handicapping Myths 1.3 – Stats Rule

Written on September 9th, 2013 by Jesse Schule in
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Handicapping Myths 1.3 – Stats Rule

The business of betting on sports is a tricky one, just when you think you have it all figured out, you realize that you have so much more to learn. As a professional gambler by trade, I have been involved in serious sports betting since I was a kid. At the age of 37, I’m still learning, constantly looking for a new angle, or a trend that had yet to be exploited. I believe this is absolutely necessary to be successful, because the industry is constantly changing, and what works today, may not work tomorrow. If you stop learning, you will eventually fall behind, becoming obsolete, just like anything else in this life.

One of the most common mistakes that gamblers make, is setting out rules and guidelines that only limit their ability to turn a profit. I’m a firm believer that rules are meant to be broken, and following strict guidelines will only prevent you from taking advantage of every available opportunity. In this series of articles, I will discuss some of the most common “myths” that are associated with sports handicapping.

Myth #3: Stats Rule

Statistics can be an important tool that can prove very useful in predicting the outcome of any event, including contests in professional sports. It’s important to realize though, that you have to weigh all the variables and separate the relevant data from that which has little value. One of the most common mistakes that people make when handicapping sports, is to put too much emphasis on numbers that might not be as important as they might think.

The numbers never tell the whole story, and often other factors will out-weigh any of the stats. For example, a key injury has the potential to be a much bigger factor than any numbers you can possibly dig up. Weather conditions, roster moves, coaching decisions and a variety of situational and motivational factors may also play a role in determining the result of any competition or event.

If you were going to base your plays solely on statistics, you might as well have a computer do it for you. In fact, there are a handful of people out there that will tell you they have developed software that can accurately predict winners in professional sports. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the flaw in this plan, and those who make such claims should not be trusted.

When I am studying a game, there are certain statistics I use more than others. In baseball I focus mainly on pitching, looking at a pitcher’s previous record versus opponent, batter vs pitcher, and one stat that I find is often overlooked, is a pitcher’s splits in day/night. It’s very common that some Major League hurlers are completely different pitchers in the day than they are at night. I am far more concerned with how a pitcher has performed in recent starts, as opposed to his numbers for the season, and I am also careful to consider the opponent when looking at these numbers. For example, shutting out a last place team doesn’t carry as much weight as a dominant outing versus a division leading opponent.

In the NFL, I find that many handicappers focus on head-to-head records, which I find are almost always irrelevant. Things change fast in the NFL, so a team’s record versus a division rival in previous seasons doesn’t carry a lot of weight for me. The stats I pay more attention to include defense versus the run and pass, and a careful look at all the numbers for each team’s quarterback.

Hockey is a sport where I don’t put a lot of weight in any statistics, and I go almost entirely by feel, and situational/motivational factors. That seems to have been working for me, as I am coming off another stellar season with the NHL (+$17,040).

My advice to amateur handicappers would be to avoid falling in love with a play simply based on the numbers. Use simple common sense, play the devil’s advocate, and try to make a case against the team you want to bet on, and if you still like the play after weighing all the data, go for it!

If you have any questions, comments or anything to add to the subject, feel free to give me a shout on Facebook.

Good Luck,

Jesse Schule

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Mariners vs Rangers	Rangers -145	Free	3-12	Win	100	Show
This is a free play on TEX. The Rangers crushed the Mariners in Game 2, and that momentum might carry over here in Game 3. Nate Eovaldi will toe the slab for Texas, and he's 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his last five starts. Seattle will hand the ball Bryce Miller, who was roughed up by the Yankees in his last start. He allowed eight runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings in the loss. The Rangers are 20-8 in their last 28 home games. GL, Jesse Schule
Wings vs Sun	Wings +8½ -110	Premium	74-80	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on DAL. The Sun are 5-1, but a closer look at their schedule reveals that there might be more to the story. Not one of those five wins came against a team with a winning record. Only one of those five wins came by a margin wide enough to cover the spread here. Dallas has two losses, and the combined margin of defeat in those games is less than the spread for this game. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule
Rockies vs Royals	Rockies +1½ -158	Premium	0-2	Loss	-158	Show
This is a 4* play on COL. The Royals are a favorite again today, and they are just 9-17 straight up in their last 26 games. As them to cover a runline and they are 5-21 ATS in those games. The Royals are 6-5 straight up in the last 11 head to head meetings, but only half of those wins came by more than one run. While Kyle Freeland has struggled on the road this season, that's out of character for him. The Royals have five wins in Brady Singer's 11 starts, but only one of those wins came by more than one run. GL, Jesse Schule
Tigers vs White Sox	White Sox -168	Premium	2-6	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on CWS. The Tigers have scored just one run in the first two games of this series, and they are on the verge of being swept. Matthew Boyd will toe the slab for Detroit in Game 3, and he's struggled against the White Sox. Chicago's lineup has hit a combined .336 over 128 at bats versus Boyd. The Sox hand the ball to Michael Kopech, who is 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA in his last five starts. The Tigers are 8-22 in the last 30 meetings in Chicago. GL, Jesse Schule
Phillies vs Nationals	Nationals +1½ -120	Premium	11-3	Loss	-120	Show
This is a 4* play on Washington. After splitting the first two games of this series, the Nats look good as an underdog in the rubber match Sunday. Trevor Williams will toe the slab for Washington, and he's 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA in five home starts. The Phillies hand the ball to Ranger Saurez, who is 0-2 with a 7.13 ERA in four starts. The Nationals lineup is batting .308 over a combined 52 at bats versus Suarez. The Phillies have just three wins by more than one run in their last 19 games. GL, Jesse Schule
Heat vs Nuggets	OVER 214 -110	Premium	111-108	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on Over. One of the stories in Game 1 was the Heat attempting an NBA Playoff record low two free throws. This is one of the factors that resulted in such a low score. Here is what I said prior to the game: "The Miami Heat lead the playoffs in three-point shooting, hitting 39 percent from beyond the arc. The Nuggets aren't far behind hitting 38.6 percent of their three-point attempts. The Heat come in averaging 112 points per game while Denver has averaged 116 points per game in the playoffs. The Joker has put up incredible numbers, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists. He's put up those numbers against the best defenders in the NBA. The Heat rank near the bottom in the NBA in rebounds per game, and have one of the league's smallest starting lineups. I expect Joker to put up video game numbers in this series, and I like the total to go over in Game 1." The total for Game 2 is several points lower than it was in Game 1, and I expect the Heat to get to the free throw line more often, and hit more threes in Game 2. Whatever the Heat do, I can't see them stopping Joker. I''l take the over here. GL, Jesse Schule

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Jim Feist	$609
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Handicapping Myths 1.3 – Stats Rule

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