Handicapping Myths 1.3 – Stats Rule

September 9th, 2013

Handicapping Myths 1.3 – Stats Rule

The business of betting on sports is a tricky one, just when you think you have it all figured out, you realize that you have so much more to learn. As a professional gambler by trade, I have been involved in serious sports betting since I was a kid. At the age of 37, I’m still learning, constantly looking for a new angle, or a trend that had yet to be exploited. I believe this is absolutely necessary to be successful, because the industry is constantly changing, and what works today, may not work tomorrow. If you stop learning, you will eventually fall behind, becoming obsolete, just like anything else in this life.

One of the most common mistakes that gamblers make, is setting out rules and guidelines that only limit their ability to turn a profit. I’m a firm believer that rules are meant to be broken, and following strict guidelines will only prevent you from taking advantage of every available opportunity. In this series of articles, I will discuss some of the most common “myths” that are associated with sports handicapping.

Myth #3: Stats Rule

Statistics can be an important tool that can prove very useful in predicting the outcome of any event, including contests in professional sports. It’s important to realize though, that you have to weigh all the variables and separate the relevant data from that which has little value. One of the most common mistakes that people make when handicapping sports, is to put too much emphasis on numbers that might not be as important as they might think.

The numbers never tell the whole story, and often other factors will out-weigh any of the stats. For example, a key injury has the potential to be a much bigger factor than any numbers you can possibly dig up. Weather conditions, roster moves, coaching decisions and a variety of situational and motivational factors may also play a role in determining the result of any competition or event.

If you were going to base your plays solely on statistics, you might as well have a computer do it for you. In fact, there are a handful of people out there that will tell you they have developed software that can accurately predict winners in professional sports. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the flaw in this plan, and those who make such claims should not be trusted.

When I am studying a game, there are certain statistics I use more than others. In baseball I focus mainly on pitching, looking at a pitcher’s previous record versus opponent, batter vs pitcher, and one stat that I find is often overlooked, is a pitcher’s splits in day/night. It’s very common that some Major League hurlers are completely different pitchers in the day than they are at night. I am far more concerned with how a pitcher has performed in recent starts, as opposed to his numbers for the season, and I am also careful to consider the opponent when looking at these numbers. For example, shutting out a last place team doesn’t carry as much weight as a dominant outing versus a division leading opponent.

In the NFL, I find that many handicappers focus on head-to-head records, which I find are almost always irrelevant. Things change fast in the NFL, so a team’s record versus a division rival in previous seasons doesn’t carry a lot of weight for me. The stats I pay more attention to include defense versus the run and pass, and a careful look at all the numbers for each team’s quarterback.

Hockey is a sport where I don’t put a lot of weight in any statistics, and I go almost entirely by feel, and situational/motivational factors. That seems to have been working for me, as I am coming off another stellar season with the NHL (+$17,040).

My advice to amateur handicappers would be to avoid falling in love with a play simply based on the numbers. Use simple common sense, play the devil’s advocate, and try to make a case against the team you want to bet on, and if you still like the play after weighing all the data, go for it!

If you have any questions, comments or anything to add to the subject, feel free to give me a shout on Facebook.

Good Luck,

Jesse Schule

Check out the Iceman's Premium Picks

Jesse Schule

100% PERFECT NBA FINALS 2017, 2019 & 2020! Prior to the 2017 NBA Finals, The Iceman released six series proposition bets. He cashed in ALL SIX, going a PERFECT 6-0 with NBA FINALS FUTURES!

Premium Packages

Game of the Year (NCAAF) - Schule's Best Bet of 2021 Goes Week 1

The Iceman cashed his NCAAF Game of the Year on the Oregon Ducks winning outright in Washington in 2019. He's 120-80 +$30,600 with his last 200 top rated NCAAF plays. This GRIDIRON GURU is a BIG GAME SPECIALIST, as evidenced by going a PERFECT 5-0 in SB LII.

Game of the Year (NCAAF) - Schule's Best Bet of 2021 Goes Week 1

Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Phillies vs Pirates	Phillies -168	Premium	2-3	Loss	-168	Show
This is an 8* play on Philly. The Phillies got rocked in Pittsburgh on Friday, but I am looking for them to bounce back here tonight. Aaron Nola will toe the slab for Philly, and he's been on a bit of a roll lately. Nola (7-6, 4.37 ERA) allowed one run on four hits, striking out nine in 8 2/3 innings in a 2-1 win over Atlanta his last time out. The Pirates hand the ball to JT Brubaker, who has lost five straight starts. He's 0-3 with an 8.30 ERA in four starts over the last 30 days. The Phillies are 11-3 in their last 14 games following a loss. GL, Jesse Schule
Mariners vs Rangers	Mariners -129	Premium	4-5	Loss	-129	Show
This is an 8* play on Seattle. The Mariners were buyers at the deadline while the Rangers were sellers. It came as no surprise that Seattle won Game 1 and we expect more of the same here in Game 2. Tyler Anderson will toe the slab for Seattle, making his first start for the Mariners. He was 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts with the Pirates. The Rangers hand the ball to Tayor Hearn, who has been coming out of the bullpen. He's 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA in two appearances versus Seattle. The Mariners are 20-8 in the last 28 head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule

Handicapping Myths 1.3 – Stats Rule

Check out the Iceman's Premium Picks

Jesse Schule

Premium Packages

PREMIUM PICK STREAKS

Short-Term Subscription Options

Long-Term Subscription Options

Free picks

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

SERVICE BIO

Top Cappers L7 Days

FireFan

Recent Articles