Get Started with Free Picks in Your Inbox!

Sign up now to beat the bookmakers with Jesse Schule's sports picks and free predictions.
To MAXIMIZE your profits, you're going to want to check out Jesse's
PREMIUM PICKS & BEST BETS

Handicapping Myths 1.3 – Stats Rule

September 9th, 2013

Handicapping Myths 1.3 – Stats Rule

The business of betting on sports is a tricky one, just when you think you have it all figured out, you realize that you have so much more to learn. As a professional gambler by trade, I have been involved in serious sports betting since I was a kid. At the age of 37, I’m still learning, constantly looking for a new angle, or a trend that had yet to be exploited. I believe this is absolutely necessary to be successful, because the industry is constantly changing, and what works today, may not work tomorrow. If you stop learning, you will eventually fall behind, becoming obsolete, just like anything else in this life.

One of the most common mistakes that gamblers make, is setting out rules and guidelines that only limit their ability to turn a profit. I’m a firm believer that rules are meant to be broken, and following strict guidelines will only prevent you from taking advantage of every available opportunity. In this series of articles, I will discuss some of the most common “myths” that are associated with sports handicapping.

Myth #3: Stats Rule

Statistics can be an important tool that can prove very useful in predicting the outcome of any event, including contests in professional sports. It’s important to realize though, that you have to weigh all the variables and separate the relevant data from that which has little value. One of the most common mistakes that people make when handicapping sports, is to put too much emphasis on numbers that might not be as important as they might think.

The numbers never tell the whole story, and often other factors will out-weigh any of the stats. For example, a key injury has the potential to be a much bigger factor than any numbers you can possibly dig up. Weather conditions, roster moves, coaching decisions and a variety of situational and motivational factors may also play a role in determining the result of any competition or event.

If you were going to base your plays solely on statistics, you might as well have a computer do it for you. In fact, there are a handful of people out there that will tell you they have developed software that can accurately predict winners in professional sports. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the flaw in this plan, and those who make such claims should not be trusted.

When I am studying a game, there are certain statistics I use more than others. In baseball I focus mainly on pitching, looking at a pitcher’s previous record versus opponent, batter vs pitcher, and one stat that I find is often overlooked, is a pitcher’s splits in day/night. It’s very common that some Major League hurlers are completely different pitchers in the day than they are at night. I am far more concerned with how a pitcher has performed in recent starts, as opposed to his numbers for the season, and I am also careful to consider the opponent when looking at these numbers. For example, shutting out a last place team doesn’t carry as much weight as a dominant outing versus a division leading opponent.

In the NFL, I find that many handicappers focus on head-to-head records, which I find are almost always irrelevant. Things change fast in the NFL, so a team’s record versus a division rival in previous seasons doesn’t carry a lot of weight for me. The stats I pay more attention to include defense versus the run and pass, and a careful look at all the numbers for each team’s quarterback.

Hockey is a sport where I don’t put a lot of weight in any statistics, and I go almost entirely by feel, and situational/motivational factors. That seems to have been working for me, as I am coming off another stellar season with the NHL (+$17,040).

My advice to amateur handicappers would be to avoid falling in love with a play simply based on the numbers. Use simple common sense, play the devil’s advocate, and try to make a case against the team you want to bet on, and if you still like the play after weighing all the data, go for it!

If you have any questions, comments or anything to add to the subject, feel free to give me a shout on Facebook.

Good Luck,

Jesse Schule


Check out the Iceman's Premium Picks

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF... +$36,190 All Top Rated Premium Picks Since 1/1/17. +$62,690 All Top Rated Premium Picks Since 1/1/16. +$67,330 All Top Rated Premium Picks Since 1/1/15.

Premium Packages

Game of the Year (NHL) - INCREDIBLE 7-1 (88%) In The Conference Finals!

THE ICEMAN COMETH... 7-1 (88%) last 8 NHL!

We all know that The Iceman has made stacks of cash on the ice in his career, and he shocked the world with a PERFECT 11-0 start to the 2016 season. He's won 7-of-8 overall, and he's shown STAGGERING PROFITS of +$12,910 with his last 100 (10*) plays!

Game of the Year (NHL) - INCREDIBLE 7-1 (88%) In The Conference Finals!
Buy Now
Price: $99.00

*This package includes 1 NHL pick


Game of the Month (SOCCER) - Schule's CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL BLOCKBUSTER

**WARNING** Schule's SOCCER plays are known to cause increased heart rate and an overwhelming sense of euphoria. Playing these on a regular basis can result in an increase of disposable cash and can cause your bankroll to swell uncontrollably. It is not recommended to participate in these wagers if you have any allergic reactions to COLD HARD CASH!

Game of the Month (SOCCER) - Schule's CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL BLOCKBUSTER
Buy Now
Price: $99.00

*This package includes 1 Soccer pick


Short-Term Subscription Options

1 day All Sports subscription

Get All The Iceman's plays with All Sports for one day - Only $88.

1 Day All Sports
Buy Now
Price: $88.00

No picks available.


3 days All Sports - THIS WEEKEND ONLY - **SPECIAL**

SPECIAL OFFER THIS WEEKEND ONLY!

From Now Until Midnight, Get ALL The Iceman's Premium Picks For The Entire Weekend (Fri-Mon) For ONLY $99. Exclusively

3 Day All Sports
Buy Now
Price: $68.00

*This subscription currently includes 1 NHL pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.


7 days All Sports subscription - March Madness

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF...

- +$10,368 Overall March of 2018!

- +$6,007 Overall March of 2017!

- +$17,553 Overall March of 2016!

7 Day All Sports
Buy Now
Price: $225.00

*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 NHL, 1 Soccer) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.


LIMITED TIME OFFER - MAY S-P-E-C-I-A-L (2 WEEKS $199)

ALL SPORTS FOR 2 WEEKS FOR ALMOST HALF PRICE!

14 Day All Sports
Buy Now
Price: $199.00

*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 NHL, 1 Soccer) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.


Long-Term Subscription Options

30 days All Sports subscription - Just $16 Per Day!

If you're serious about making money in this business, then there is no doubt that a LONG TERM subscription is the way to go. With a monthly ALL SPORTS package you will get EVERY SINGLE play for the entire month, at a cost of just over $16 per day. There's no better time to climb aboard Schule's GRAVY TRAIN than right now! He's ranked in the Top 3 on this site with college basketball ALL TIME!

30 Day All Sports
Buy Now
Price: $499.00

*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 NHL, 1 Soccer) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.


Schule's 6 Month S-P-E-C-I-A-L

THIS OFFER IS AVAILABLE ONLY UPON THE ICEMAN'S WRITTEN APPROVAL.

180 Day All Sports
Buy Now
Price: $999.00

*This subscription currently includes 3 picks (1 NHL, 1 NFL & 1 Soccer) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.


365 days All Sports subscription of Jesse Schule

You'll learn how the pros make a living via sports betting with EVERY PLAY released over the next 365 days. We are so sure we'll profit that we GUARANTEE it!

365 Day All Sports
Buy Now
Price: $1299.95

*This subscription currently includes 3 picks (1 NHL, 1 NFL & 1 Soccer) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.


ALL ACCESS CFL FULL SEASON - SPECIAL PRICE!

PULVERIZING THE PIGSKIN ~ 80% WINNERS CFL 2015!
He's recognized as one of the sharpest football handicappers on the planet, and his abilities were on full display last season (11-3 OVERALL). Subscribe to all his 2018 season plays RIGHT NOW ... and you too could start PULVERIZING THE PIGSKIN!

ALL ACCESS CFL FULL SEASON - SPECIAL PRICE!
Buy Now
Price: $199.00

No picks available.


NBA Season Subscription

**Top 10 NBA handicapper in 2016**

** Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals 2017**

The Iceman is off to an incredible start to the 2019 NBA Playoffs, winning six of his first seven picks. His Game of the Year was a double digit winner on the Milwaukee Bucks. Get all his NBA picks for the remainder of the post-season for Only $99! Offer ends Monday and midnight!

NBA Season Subscription
Buy Now
Price: $99.00

No picks available.


YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

SERVICE BIO

WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

Career Highlights:

- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)

- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)

- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)

- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)

- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)

- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)

Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.

Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.

Signature Plays:

AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.

The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.

GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.

HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available