Handicapping Myths 1.4 – Situational Handicapping

Written on September 9th, 2013 by Jesse Schule in
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The business of betting on sports is a tricky one, just when you think you have it all figured out, you realize that you have so much more to learn. As a professional gambler by trade, I have been involved in serious sports betting since I was a kid. At the age of 38, I’m still learning, constantly looking for a new angle, or a trend that had yet to be exploited. I believe this is absolutely necessary to be successful, because the industry is constantly changing, and what works today, may not work tomorrow. If you stop learning, you will eventually fall behind, becoming obsolete, just like anything else in this life.

One of the most common mistakes that gamblers make, is setting out rules and guidelines that only limit their ability to turn a profit. I’m a firm believer that rules are meant to be broken, and following strict guidelines will only prevent you from taking advantage of every available opportunity. In this series of articles, I will discuss some of the most common “myths” that are associated with sports handicapping.

Myth #4 – Situational Handicapping
There are no shortage of professional and amateur handicappers that believe in betting solely based on situations. A situational handicapper will look for teams that fit a certain category, which could be any of the following.

– Revenge Spot: when a team is looking to avenge a loss in the rematch against an opponent that defeated them earlier in the season.

– Schedule Spots: This could be a team playing on back to back nights in the NHL or NBA, or a team playing on a short week in football season. Often the two teams that play a Monday night game are thought to be at a disadvantage the following Sunday.

– Rivalries: There are those who believe that underdogs have a better chance to cover or even upset an opponent that is a division rival, or a team from the same city or state that is considered to be a rival.

– Home/Away: There are a variety of different home and away situations that bettors will pay close attention to. In a very general sense, it’s considered sharp to play home dogs, and bet against road favorites.

– Ranked vs. Unranked: Many will look for certain situations involving ranked and unranked teams. I don’t see too much sense in this, because the rankings change week to week, and I don’t always agree with the rankings.

So the question is, which of these situations are “Junk Science”, and which have actual value. The answer to both questions could be all or none. I believe that any one situation on it’s own has absolutely no value, unless there are several other factors to back it up. For example, one of the most overrated situations is the “Revenge Factor”.

When you really stop and think about it, you’re betting on a team to defeat a team that it has already failed to beat earlier in the year. While there is no doubt that this may provide added motivation, that alone isn’t enough. Before I would put any weight in a revenge situation, I would want to find some evidence that suggests the opposing team has reason to be more complacent, and less motivated. I also want to know who’s injured or suspended, and how each team has played in recent games.

The most important factor of all, is almost always going to be the price. If the price isn’t right, then nothing else really matters. I pay attention to situations, but they are only a very small part of my overall handicapping process. I think the idea that you can base your bets solely on situational handicapping, is completely and totally flawed.

If you have any questions, comments or anything to add to the subject, feel free to give me a shout on Facebook.

Good Luck,

Jesse Schule

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Pacers vs Lakers	UNDER 241 -105	Premium	109-123	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on Under. The Pacers are cooking fire heading into the NBA In-Season Tournament Final, but the Lakers may be able to cool them off. These two teams have gone under in three straight head to head meetings, and the Lakers have held opponents to just 105 points per game in their last five. We saw LA hold the Pelicans to just 89 points in the Semi Finals. Expect a strong defensive effort here in a Championship Game. GL, Jesse Schule
Drexel vs West Virginia	UNDER 129½ -115	Premium	60-66	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on Under. Of 362 Division 1 teams, West Virginia ranks 341st in possessions per game. Drexel ranks 340th, so we should expect a snail's pace here in this matchup. The total has gone under in eight of West Virginia's last 11 games. The total has gone under in six of Drexel's last seven games. GL, Jesse Schule
Brentford vs Sheffield United	Brentford -124	Premium	0-1	Loss	-124	Show
This is a 4* play on Brentford. A few years ago Sheffield United was a competitive team in the Premier League, but they are the undisputed worst team in 2023. They have just one win 15 matches, and they have a Premier League worst -30 goal differential in those games. A home game against Brentford won't be a picnic. Brentford has scored more than twice as many goals and they have conceded 20 fewer goals. GL, Jesse Schule
Colgate vs Vermont	UNDER 134 -110	Premium	77-71	Loss	-110	Show
This is a 4* play on Under. The Catamounts last home game was a 66-65 win over Yale, and they came back from down five in the final three seconds. Vermont is 5-0 at home, and the majority of those games have been low scoring. Of the 362 Division 1 teams, Vermont ranks 358th in possessions per game. The total has gone under in eight of Colgate's last nine games. The total has gone under in 8 of Vermont's last 11 games, and the under is 5-0 in their last five home games. GL, Jesse Schule
Rutgers vs Seton Hall	UNDER 132½ -110	Top Premium	70-63	Loss	-110	Show
This is a 10* play on Under. Last year Seton Hall beat Rutgers in New Jersey by a score of 45-43, and while that game may look like anomaly, low scoring games have been the norm when these teams play. The under is 7-1 in the last eight head to head meetings. Rutgers has gone under in seven of their last eight overall, and the under is 5-1 in their last six road games. The Pirates are 5-0 at home, and they have held opponents to 62 points per game. This one should be a defensive battle. GL, Jesse Schule

Handicapping Myths 1.4 – Situational Handicapping

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