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Kevin Durant +$333 vs LeBron James (Most Points) NBA Finals – Jesse Schule

May 31st, 2018

Kevin Durant +$333 vs LeBron James (Most Points) NBA Finals

The bookmakers set the over/under for LeBron’s points in Game 7 versus Boston at 38.5, the highest anybody has ever seen. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw that, but even thought I knew there was great value in the short, I really expected LeBron to have a big game. He ended up with 35 points, well short of the inflated projected total. Here in the Finals, the bookmakers have him as a 5-1 favorite to out-score Kevin Durant, and this time around I am going to take the value and fade this inflated line. The same bookmakers have the Warriors as a 10-1 favorite to win the series, and if it’s as one sided as expected, that means the Warriors could score 10% more points than the Cavs overall. Durant scored over 35 points per game in last year’s Finals, to LeBron’s average of 33 points. The Warriors scored 41 more points than the Cavs in the first two games alone. This Cavs team is significantly weaker than it was a year ago, so there’s no reason to expect them to fare any better.

GL,

Jesse Schule


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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

SERVICE BIO

WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

Career Highlights:

- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)

- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)

- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)

- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)

- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)

- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)

Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.

Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.

Signature Plays:

AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.

The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.

GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.

HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available