Michigan vs. Florida State Betting Preview 12/30/16 – Capital One Orange Bowl
Michigan Wolverines (10-2) vs. Florida State Seminoles (9-3) Betting Preview
Line/Odds: Michigan -7 (5dimes)
Total: 52
Time: 8:00 pm ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami FL.
Television Broadcast: ESPN
Betting Preview
When Michigan and Florida State face off, it will be the first time in 25 years that these two great football schools have played each other.
The Wolverines had a chance to make it to the College Football Championship but lost out when they dropped two of their last three games of the regular season. Quarterback Wilton Speight playing in his first year as a starter, threw for over 2300 yards and 17 touchdowns leading an offense that ranked 12th in the country scoring 41 points a game. But there is no doubt that it was their defense that propelled Michigan this year. They held nine of their 12 opponents to 14 points or less scoring and were ranked first in the country stopping the pass and ranked second in points allowed (12.5 points a game).
Florida State saw their hopes of reaching the College Football Championship slip away when they lost three games over a six week stretch. Two of those losses were to Louisville and Clemson but they finished the season winning six of their last seven games. Their offense was led by quarterback Deondre Francois who passed for over 3100 yards and 18 touchdowns and a strong ground game led by running back Dalvin Cook who was ranked eighth in the country with over 1600 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns.
The oddsmakers have made the Wolverines a seven point favorite while the total which opened up at 56.5 but has been bet down to 52 where it stands now. According to Covers.com Consensus Analysis 54% of the public like the Wolverines and that defense and are behind Michigan while 53% are backing the over regardless.
The Seminoles have won six of their last eight bowl games while the Wolverines have dropped seven of their last 10.
Previous Meetings
09/28/91: Seminoles 51 @ Wolverines 31
09/27/86: Seminoles 18 @ Wolverines 20
Trends
- The Seminoles have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 bowl games.
- The over is 8-2 in the Wolverines last 10 neutral site games
- The under is 6-2 in the Seminoles last eight games overall
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This is a free play on Over 2.5.
After Bremen and Heidenheimer played a scoreless draw in the first leg of this relegation/promotion playoff, perhaps we see a bit of recency bias at play in the second leg. The total is taking back plus money betting the over 2.5, which seems like a bargain in a match that could be decided on away goals. While neither team scored in the fist leg, the previous two head to head meetings saw a combined eight goals. Bremen scored six goals the last time they were faced with a must win game, and I very much doubt they will be held off the score sheet in this match.
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Jesse Schule
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This is a 5* play on Over 2.5.
West Ham is coming off a shocking 3-2 win over Chelsea, putting them three points clear of relegation. Newcastle is also coming off a favorable result, beating Bournemouth by a score of 4-1. We can expect plenty of chances in a match featuring two teams that aren't known for their defending. Newcastle won the last meeting between these teams by a score of 3-2, and I expect a similar score here on Sunday.
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Jesse Schule
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
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