Michigan vs. Florida State Betting Preview 12/30/16 – Capital One Orange Bowl
Michigan Wolverines (10-2) vs. Florida State Seminoles (9-3) Betting Preview
Line/Odds: Michigan -7 (5dimes)
Total: 52
Time: 8:00 pm ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami FL.
Television Broadcast: ESPN
Betting Preview
When Michigan and Florida State face off, it will be the first time in 25 years that these two great football schools have played each other.
The Wolverines had a chance to make it to the College Football Championship but lost out when they dropped two of their last three games of the regular season. Quarterback Wilton Speight playing in his first year as a starter, threw for over 2300 yards and 17 touchdowns leading an offense that ranked 12th in the country scoring 41 points a game. But there is no doubt that it was their defense that propelled Michigan this year. They held nine of their 12 opponents to 14 points or less scoring and were ranked first in the country stopping the pass and ranked second in points allowed (12.5 points a game).
Florida State saw their hopes of reaching the College Football Championship slip away when they lost three games over a six week stretch. Two of those losses were to Louisville and Clemson but they finished the season winning six of their last seven games. Their offense was led by quarterback Deondre Francois who passed for over 3100 yards and 18 touchdowns and a strong ground game led by running back Dalvin Cook who was ranked eighth in the country with over 1600 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns.
The oddsmakers have made the Wolverines a seven point favorite while the total which opened up at 56.5 but has been bet down to 52 where it stands now. According to Covers.com Consensus Analysis 54% of the public like the Wolverines and that defense and are behind Michigan while 53% are backing the over regardless.
The Seminoles have won six of their last eight bowl games while the Wolverines have dropped seven of their last 10.
Previous Meetings
09/28/91: Seminoles 51 @ Wolverines 31
09/27/86: Seminoles 18 @ Wolverines 20
Trends
- The Seminoles have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 bowl games.
- The over is 8-2 in the Wolverines last 10 neutral site games
- The under is 6-2 in the Seminoles last eight games overall
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
This is a 9* play on Cleveland to win.
The Browns offense struggled in Week 1 at home against the Titans, but part of the problem was that they were penalized 18 times for 182 yards. The pressure is on as they get set to take on the Jets on Monday Night Football, and this looks like a get right game for Cleveland. Sam Darnold is out and Le'Veon Bell is questionable, but the Jets injuries on defense might be even more significant. C.J. Mosely and Quinnen Williams will both be out for tonight's game, and the Bills really moved the ball in the second half last week after Mosely left. This should be good news for Nick Chubb, who ran for 75 yards on 17 carries in Week 1. I expect this game to be over at halftime, and that should mean a healthy workload for Chubb in the second half.
Take CLE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 5* play on Over 2.5.
The last time these two teams played, West Ham won by a score of 3-1. The Hammers are coming off three consecutive wins, scoring seven goals in those matches. Aston Villa scored twice in a home win over Everton in their last match at Villa Park, and given the history between these two teams I think it's unlikely that either side will post a clean sheet.
Take Over.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
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- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
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- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
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