Michigan vs. Florida State Betting Preview 12/30/16 – Capital One Orange Bowl

December 26th, 2016

Michigan Wolverines (10-2) vs. Florida State Seminoles (9-3) Betting Preview

Line/Odds: Michigan -7 (5dimes)
Total: 52
Time: 8:00 pm ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami FL.
Television Broadcast: ESPN

Betting Preview

When Michigan and Florida State face off, it will be the first time in 25 years that these two great football schools have played each other.

The Wolverines had a chance to make it to the College Football Championship but lost out when they dropped two of their last three games of the regular season. Quarterback Wilton Speight playing in his first year as a starter, threw for over 2300 yards and 17 touchdowns leading an offense that ranked 12th in the country scoring 41 points a game. But there is no doubt that it was their defense that propelled Michigan this year. They held nine of their 12 opponents to 14 points or less scoring and were ranked first in the country stopping the pass and ranked second in points allowed (12.5 points a game).

Florida State saw their hopes of reaching the College Football Championship slip away when they lost three games over a six week stretch. Two of those losses were to Louisville and Clemson but they finished the season winning six of their last seven games. Their offense was led by quarterback Deondre Francois who passed for over 3100 yards and 18 touchdowns and a strong ground game led by running back Dalvin Cook who was ranked eighth in the country with over 1600 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns.

The oddsmakers have made the Wolverines a seven point favorite while the total which opened up at 56.5 but has been bet down to 52 where it stands now. According to Covers.com Consensus Analysis 54% of the public like the Wolverines and that defense and are behind Michigan while 53% are backing the over regardless.

The Seminoles have won six of their last eight bowl games while the Wolverines have dropped seven of their last 10.

Previous Meetings

09/28/91: Seminoles 51 @ Wolverines 31
09/27/86: Seminoles 18 @ Wolverines 20

Trends

The Seminoles have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 bowl games.
The over is 8-2 in the Wolverines last 10 neutral site games
The under is 6-2 in the Seminoles last eight games overall

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Jesse Schule

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Bills vs Titans	Bills -5½ -110	Premium	31-34	Loss	-110	Show
This is a 5* play on Buffalo. The Bills have won five straight, and they come into Tennessee as a sizeable favorite. While some might think this is a let down spot after their win in Kansas City, I see this as a classic revenge game. Buffalo lost 42-16 at Tennessee last season, and they are in an ideal spot to avenge that loss on Monday night. The Titans defense has really struggled, especially against the pass. Josh Allen shredded the Chiefs defense for 315 yards and three TDs, and I expect him to do the same here against the Bills. The Titans will try to turn the game into a shootout, but that's not going to be easy versus the Bills #1 ranked scoring defense. GL, Jesse Schule
Astros vs Red Sox	OVER 9 +102	Premium	3-12	Win	102	Show
This is an 8* play on Over. The first two games of this series went over the total, and with the series shifting to Fenway we could see another slugfest. Eduardo Rodriguez will toe the slab for Boston, and his recent starts don't inspire a lot of confidence. He allowed four runs on five hits and two walks in 6 2/3 innings in two games in the series versus Tampa. He's 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA in two starts versus Houston this season. The Astros hand the ball to Jose Urquidy, who hasn't pitched in over two weeks. Talk about getting thrown in to the fire. The over is 10-1-1 in the Red Sox last 12 League Championship home games. GL, Jesse Schule
Ducks vs Flames	Flames -183	Premium	3-2	Loss	-183	Show
This is a 5* play on Calgary. The Ducks are 1-1 after playing their first two games of rthe season at home, now they head out on the road where they will play Calgary on Monday. Anaheim finished dead last in the West last year, and this is basically the same group of players. The Ducks are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Calgary, and the home team is 59-21 in the last 80 meetings. The price isn't cheap, but this is a good spot to back the home favorite. GL, Jesse Schule

Service	Profit
Art Aronson	$627
Matt Fargo	$592
Scott Rickenbach	$586
Alex Smart	$396
Tim Michael	$330
Ray Monohan	$300
Ricky Tran	$266
Ben Burns	$259
Marc David	$196
Kyle Hunter	$180

Michigan vs. Florida State Betting Preview 12/30/16 – Capital One Orange Bowl

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