NCAAF Exposing The Top 25 – Pre-Season 2016

August 6th, 2016

Each week throughout the college football season, The Iceman will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He’ll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team – Ole Miss Rebels (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

The Rebels are coming off a 10-win season that saw them upset Alabama for the second straight year. They crushed Oklahoma State by score of 48-20 in the Sugar Bowl, and Chad Kelly threw for 302 yards with four TDs and one INT on 21-of-33 passing in the victory. Kelly led the SEC in passing last season, and he threw a conference best 31 TD passes. He wasn’t exactly padding his stats against weak opposition either, as his best games came against Alabama and LSU.

Mississippi will open the season playing four of their first games at home. It’s biggest challenge will be mid September clash against Alabama, who they beat 43-37 in Tuscaloosa last year, and 23-17 in Oxford in 2014. The Crimson Tide have to replace a lot of talent from last year’s championship squad, and if they stumble it could open the door for the Rebels to emerge as the team to beat in the SEC.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team – Notre Dame Irish (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

The Irish won 10 games in 2015, but they were just 2-3 versus ranked teams. Their two wins versus Top 25 teams came against Georgia Tech and Temple, who are both unranked heading into 2016. If the Irish are going to reach double digit wins this year, they are going to have to earn it. They face the Longhorns in Texas in Week 1, and they have tough home game against Michigan State two weeks later. They host Stanford and Miami in October, and in November they host Virginia Tech before traveling to California to face USC in their season finale.

Notre Dame only returns eight starters on both sides of the ball, and while they have a pair of talented quarterbacks, they have to replace star WR Will Fuller. The losses on defense include linebackers Jaylon Smith and Joe Schmidt, tackle Sheldon Day, end Romeo Okwara, cornerback KeiVarae Russell and strong safety Elijah Shumate. This team has no business being ranked in the Top 10.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked – Texas A&M Aggies (8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

The Aggies have won their first five games in each of the last two seasons, but have fallen apart against the top teams in the conference in October and November. Last year they held opponents under 30 points in all but one of their games, with the exception a 41-23 loss at Alabama. The defense that allowed 21.6 points per game in 2015 should be even better with Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall looking to improve on last season’s total of 19/5 sacks combined.

Trevor Knight gives them some much needed experience at quarterback, and he’ll have one of the top receiving corps in the conference. If Knight can re-discover the magic that saw him throw for 348 yards and four TDs in a 45-31 win over Alabama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, the Aggies will be a force to be reckoned with.

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois	Northern Illinois -159	Premium	81-82	Win	100	Show
This is an 8* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies. The Huskies have won four straight home games, and they will host a Central Michigan team that has lost four in a row overall. The Chippewas have lost nine of 11 road games this season, while the Huskies are 9-3 at home. The Chippewas are one of the highest scoring teams in the country, averaging over 80 points per game. They have had real trouble scoring on the road though, scoring less than 70 points per game. The Huskies are allowing just 60 points per game at home. Northern Illinois is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Take NIU. GL, Jesse Schule
Oregon vs Arizona	OVER 139½ -110	Top Premium	73-72	Win	100	Show
10*
76ers vs Bucks	Bucks -8½ -106	Premium	98-119	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on the Milwaukee Bucks. After the Sixers rallied at home to beat the Nets, Joel Embiid told reporters that he was the best player in the world. Embiid is delusional, and so are Philly fans if they think this team is going anywhere in the playoffs. The Sixers can't win on the road, and that will mean that they aren't going to have home court advantage in the post-season. They are on the road tonight, facing the best team in the NBA. Philly has won four straight, but their last defeat was a double digit loss here in Wisconsin. The Sixers have failed to cover in four of their last five in Milwaukee, and I see no reason to "buck" that trend here tonight. Take MIL. GL, Jesse Schule
Aston Villa vs Southampton	Southampton -141	Premium	0-2	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on Southampton. One of the reasons that Aston Villa is flirting with relegation is due to their shoddy play on defense. They have conceded a Premier League worst 50 goals this season. To be fair, Southampton hasn't been a lot better in that regard, conceding a whopping 48 goals of their own. Villa is coming off a terrible home loss to Tottenham, conceding the game winning goal in injury time. They are just 2-2-9 this season in 13 away matches. Southampton has out-scored Villa a combined 15-6 while going 4-0-1 in the last five head to head matches. Take SAINTS. GL, Jesse Schule
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Sheffield United	UNDER 2½ -145	Premium	1-1	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on Under 2.5. The news that Manchester City will be banned from Champions League play next season has opened the door for some teams to climb up into a Champions League spot. One of those teams is Sheffield United, who currently sit in sixth in the table just one point back of Tottenham. Sheffield has allowed just 24 goals in 26 matches this season, only Liverpool has conceded fewer goals. They will host Brighton, and two of the last three meetings between these teams have finished with a 1-0 score. Brighton is 2-3-8 in 13 away matches, scoring just 14 goals in those games. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule
Aston Villa vs Southampton	OVER 2¾ -132	Premium	0-2	Loss	-132	Show
This is a 5* play on Over 2.5. One of the reasons that Aston Villa is flirting with relegation is due to their shoddy play on defense. They have conceded a Premier League worst 50 goals this season. To be fair, Southampton hasn't been a lot better in that regard, conceding a whopping 48 goals of their own. Villa is coming off a terrible home loss to Tottenham, conceding the game winning goal in injury time. They are just 2-2-9 this season in 13 away matches. Southampton has out-scored Villa a combined 15-6 while going 4-0-1 in the last five head to head matches. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule

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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

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AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.

The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.

GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.

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