NCAAF Exposing The Top 25 – Pre-Season 2016
Most Underrated Top 25 Team – Ole Miss Rebels (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
The Rebels are coming off a 10-win season that saw them upset Alabama for the second straight year. They crushed Oklahoma State by score of 48-20 in the Sugar Bowl, and Chad Kelly threw for 302 yards with four TDs and one INT on 21-of-33 passing in the victory. Kelly led the SEC in passing last season, and he threw a conference best 31 TD passes. He wasn’t exactly padding his stats against weak opposition either, as his best games came against Alabama and LSU.
Mississippi will open the season playing four of their first games at home. It’s biggest challenge will be mid September clash against Alabama, who they beat 43-37 in Tuscaloosa last year, and 23-17 in Oxford in 2014. The Crimson Tide have to replace a lot of talent from last year’s championship squad, and if they stumble it could open the door for the Rebels to emerge as the team to beat in the SEC.
Most Overrated Top 25 Team – Notre Dame Irish (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
The Irish won 10 games in 2015, but they were just 2-3 versus ranked teams. Their two wins versus Top 25 teams came against Georgia Tech and Temple, who are both unranked heading into 2016. If the Irish are going to reach double digit wins this year, they are going to have to earn it. They face the Longhorns in Texas in Week 1, and they have tough home game against Michigan State two weeks later. They host Stanford and Miami in October, and in November they host Virginia Tech before traveling to California to face USC in their season finale.
Notre Dame only returns eight starters on both sides of the ball, and while they have a pair of talented quarterbacks, they have to replace star WR Will Fuller. The losses on defense include linebackers Jaylon Smith and Joe Schmidt, tackle Sheldon Day, end Romeo Okwara, cornerback KeiVarae Russell and strong safety Elijah Shumate. This team has no business being ranked in the Top 10.
Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked – Texas A&M Aggies (8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)
The Aggies have won their first five games in each of the last two seasons, but have fallen apart against the top teams in the conference in October and November. Last year they held opponents under 30 points in all but one of their games, with the exception a 41-23 loss at Alabama. The defense that allowed 21.6 points per game in 2015 should be even better with Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall looking to improve on last season’s total of 19/5 sacks combined.
Trevor Knight gives them some much needed experience at quarterback, and he’ll have one of the top receiving corps in the conference. If Knight can re-discover the magic that saw him throw for 348 yards and four TDs in a 45-31 win over Alabama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, the Aggies will be a force to be reckoned with.
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This is a 5* play on Over.
I had the over in Game 2, and here is what I said before the game:
“Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1.”
I think Game 1 was an anomaly, and we should see high scores in this series moving forward.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 10-0 start to NFL Season (2022)
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- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
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AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
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