NCAAF Exposing The Top 25 – Pre-Season 2016
Most Underrated Top 25 Team – Ole Miss Rebels (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
The Rebels are coming off a 10-win season that saw them upset Alabama for the second straight year. They crushed Oklahoma State by score of 48-20 in the Sugar Bowl, and Chad Kelly threw for 302 yards with four TDs and one INT on 21-of-33 passing in the victory. Kelly led the SEC in passing last season, and he threw a conference best 31 TD passes. He wasn’t exactly padding his stats against weak opposition either, as his best games came against Alabama and LSU.
Mississippi will open the season playing four of their first games at home. It’s biggest challenge will be mid September clash against Alabama, who they beat 43-37 in Tuscaloosa last year, and 23-17 in Oxford in 2014. The Crimson Tide have to replace a lot of talent from last year’s championship squad, and if they stumble it could open the door for the Rebels to emerge as the team to beat in the SEC.
Most Overrated Top 25 Team – Notre Dame Irish (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
The Irish won 10 games in 2015, but they were just 2-3 versus ranked teams. Their two wins versus Top 25 teams came against Georgia Tech and Temple, who are both unranked heading into 2016. If the Irish are going to reach double digit wins this year, they are going to have to earn it. They face the Longhorns in Texas in Week 1, and they have tough home game against Michigan State two weeks later. They host Stanford and Miami in October, and in November they host Virginia Tech before traveling to California to face USC in their season finale.
Notre Dame only returns eight starters on both sides of the ball, and while they have a pair of talented quarterbacks, they have to replace star WR Will Fuller. The losses on defense include linebackers Jaylon Smith and Joe Schmidt, tackle Sheldon Day, end Romeo Okwara, cornerback KeiVarae Russell and strong safety Elijah Shumate. This team has no business being ranked in the Top 10.
Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked – Texas A&M Aggies (8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)
The Aggies have won their first five games in each of the last two seasons, but have fallen apart against the top teams in the conference in October and November. Last year they held opponents under 30 points in all but one of their games, with the exception a 41-23 loss at Alabama. The defense that allowed 21.6 points per game in 2015 should be even better with Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall looking to improve on last season’s total of 19/5 sacks combined.
Trevor Knight gives them some much needed experience at quarterback, and he’ll have one of the top receiving corps in the conference. If Knight can re-discover the magic that saw him throw for 348 yards and four TDs in a 45-31 win over Alabama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, the Aggies will be a force to be reckoned with.
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Jesse Schule
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State vs Duke | Michigan State +4 -109 | Premium | 75-69 | Win | 100 | Show |
PICKS IN PROGRESS
This is a 5* play on Under.
The Pacific Tigers have a win and a loss so far, and they went under in both of those games. A combination of strong defense and not so strong offense seems to be a recipe for low scoring games. Hitting less than half of their free throws certainly has been a factor. Montana State scored 91 points in a win over UNLV in their opener, but they have gone under in nine of their last 11 after scoring 90 or more points. The under is 7-1 in the Tigers last eight games following an ATS loss, and they have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven home games.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 5* play on Baltimore.
This drama has turned into quite a sh!t [email protected], but over the years we have learned that in the NFL anything can happen. Lamar Jackson (the reigning MVP) will not play, but I have never been a fan. I am not a believer in RGIII either, but the line swelling to double digits has tempted me to gamble on the Ravens to make it interesting.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 5* play on Over.
PSG has been dropping points in recent matches in the French league, coming off a draw versus Bordeaux and a loss to Montpellier. They also conceded five goals in those two matches, and they have conceded eight goals in their last five matches in all competitions. Manchester United has won four of their last five Premier League matches, scoring 12 goals in those games. Recent head to head meetings between these teams have also been high scoring, with United winning 2-1 and 3-1 in the last two matches.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
Top Cappers L7 Days
| Service | Profit |
|---|---|
| Sean Higgs | $1,807 |
| John Martin | $1,281 |
| Alex Smart | $812 |
| Chip Chirimbes | $759 |
| Art Aronson | $540 |
| Marc Lawrence | $490 |
| Will Rogers | $420 |
| Steve Janus | $413 |
| Kyle Hunter | $404 |
| Bryan Power | $346 |
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