NFL Total of the Month – Jaguars vs. Patriots September 27, 2015

This is a 10* play on JAX@NE to go OVER the total.

The Patriots offense is firing on all cylinders heading into Sunday’s home game versus Jacksonville. The same can’t be said for their defense, that has allowed opponents to average over 400 yards through their first two games. The Jags are coming into this game off a home win versus Miami, and Blake Bortles threw for 273 yards and a pair of TDs in that game.

Tom Brady leads the NFL with 754 yards and seven TDs through the first two games of the season, and he’s likely to put up big numbers here at home against this Jags defense. The total for this game looks a little too low when you consider New England’s history of running up the score at home. They’ve gone over the total in 35 of their last 51 home games.

The Jags will have their work cut out for them trying to slow Rob Gronkowski, who has 207 yards and four TDs so far. I don’t like their chances of doing what Seattle failed to do in the Super Bowl, and what Buffalo failed to do at home last week.

With a lack of depth at the running back position, New England only attempted 15 running plays last week. We should expect more of the same this week, and leaning on the passing game should result in another high scoring game.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule


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SERVICE BIO

WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

Career Highlights:

- Perfect 10-0 start to NFL Season (2022)

- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)

- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)

- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)

- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)

- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)

- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)

- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)

- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)

Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.

Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 1-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.5 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to five percent of a player's bankroll.

Signature Plays:

AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.

The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.

GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.

HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available