No Country For Old Men – Tom Brady Battles Father Time
No Country For Old Men – Tom Brady Battles Father Time
It was just seven months ago that Tom Brady threw for 466 yards and two TDs in an epic come from behind victory over the Falcons in the Super Bowl. He had an MVP caliber season in 2016, throwing for 3,554 yards and 28 TDs with just two INTs. He’s widely considered to be the best quarterback to ever play the game, but heading into Week 2 he owns the lowest completion percentage in the NFL for the current season.
Most football fans agree, it’s no time to panic. After all, the Patriots played the Chiefs in Week 1, and Kansas City is one of the NFL’s top defensive teams.
The bookmakers aren’t reading too much into New England’s Week 1 loss, as they have the Patriots as a 7-point road favorite at New Orleans this Sunday. It makes plenty of sense, as the Saints ranked dead last against the pass in 2016. They didn’t look any better in their Week 1 loss at Minnesota.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brady have a big game in this spot, but history isn’t exactly on his side. While there is sure to be a lot of bettors loading up on the Patriots, I would caution against it. Tom Brady is 40 years old, and he looked every bit his age last Thursday night. You are probably thinking to yourself: “he’s the same guy he was seven months ago.. it would be crazy to think he’s lost a step!” It might not be as crazy as you think. As sure as death and taxes, eventually he’s going to lose his edge. It might not happen this year, but it’s going to happen soon enough.
History tells us that the deterioration of an aging NFL quarterback can happen in the snap of a finger. Let us use the career of Brett Favre for example. At the age of 38, Favre had one of his best years ever for the Minnesota Vikings. He threw for 4,202 yards, 33 TDs and just 7 INTs in 2009. The following season the was picked off 19 times, throwing for just 2,509 yards and 11 TDs.
There are other factors working against Brady. He’s lost his most productive WR Julian Edelman for the rest of the season, and the Patriots defense appears to be in complete shambles. In fact the only team that ranks worse than New Orleans in pass defense right now is New England. Of course this is all based on a small sample size, it might be a little premature to predict the end of the Patriots dynasty. That being said, I would wait until they turn things around before I would be willing to bet my bankroll on Brady and New England as a prohibitive favorite.
If your plan was to bet the Patriots this weekend, do yourself a favor and come see The Iceman. I’ve got my NFL Game of the Month going this Sunday, and it’s a far better investment than gambling on a 40 year old quarterback with a Super Bowl hangover laying seven points on the road.
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This is a free play on Over 2.5.
After Bremen and Heidenheimer played a scoreless draw in the first leg of this relegation/promotion playoff, perhaps we see a bit of recency bias at play in the second leg. The total is taking back plus money betting the over 2.5, which seems like a bargain in a match that could be decided on away goals. While neither team scored in the fist leg, the previous two head to head meetings saw a combined eight goals. Bremen scored six goals the last time they were faced with a must win game, and I very much doubt they will be held off the score sheet in this match.
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
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- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
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AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
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