No Country For Old Men – Tom Brady Battles Father Time
No Country For Old Men – Tom Brady Battles Father Time
It was just seven months ago that Tom Brady threw for 466 yards and two TDs in an epic come from behind victory over the Falcons in the Super Bowl. He had an MVP caliber season in 2016, throwing for 3,554 yards and 28 TDs with just two INTs. He’s widely considered to be the best quarterback to ever play the game, but heading into Week 2 he owns the lowest completion percentage in the NFL for the current season.
Most football fans agree, it’s no time to panic. After all, the Patriots played the Chiefs in Week 1, and Kansas City is one of the NFL’s top defensive teams.
The bookmakers aren’t reading too much into New England’s Week 1 loss, as they have the Patriots as a 7-point road favorite at New Orleans this Sunday. It makes plenty of sense, as the Saints ranked dead last against the pass in 2016. They didn’t look any better in their Week 1 loss at Minnesota.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brady have a big game in this spot, but history isn’t exactly on his side. While there is sure to be a lot of bettors loading up on the Patriots, I would caution against it. Tom Brady is 40 years old, and he looked every bit his age last Thursday night. You are probably thinking to yourself: “he’s the same guy he was seven months ago.. it would be crazy to think he’s lost a step!” It might not be as crazy as you think. As sure as death and taxes, eventually he’s going to lose his edge. It might not happen this year, but it’s going to happen soon enough.
History tells us that the deterioration of an aging NFL quarterback can happen in the snap of a finger. Let us use the career of Brett Favre for example. At the age of 38, Favre had one of his best years ever for the Minnesota Vikings. He threw for 4,202 yards, 33 TDs and just 7 INTs in 2009. The following season the was picked off 19 times, throwing for just 2,509 yards and 11 TDs.
There are other factors working against Brady. He’s lost his most productive WR Julian Edelman for the rest of the season, and the Patriots defense appears to be in complete shambles. In fact the only team that ranks worse than New Orleans in pass defense right now is New England. Of course this is all based on a small sample size, it might be a little premature to predict the end of the Patriots dynasty. That being said, I would wait until they turn things around before I would be willing to bet my bankroll on Brady and New England as a prohibitive favorite.
If your plan was to bet the Patriots this weekend, do yourself a favor and come see The Iceman. I’ve got my NFL Game of the Month going this Sunday, and it’s a far better investment than gambling on a 40 year old quarterback with a Super Bowl hangover laying seven points on the road.
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The Eagles offense ranked 28th in the NFL in passing last season, averaging just 207.9 yards per game. They come into 2021 hoping that Jalen Hurts can bring their offense back to life, but that sure seems like a long-shot. I can remember Hurts as the same quarterback that lost his job as the starter for Alabama. Last season he completed just 52% of his passes for 1,061 yards with six TDs and four INTs while appearing in 15 games. He isn't exactly surrounded by an all star receiving corps and the Eagles don't exactly have the most dynamic stable of running backs either. The Falcons will be the favorite when they host Philly in Week 1, but this team might not be as explosive as it once was. Matt Ryan is now 36 years old, and Atlanta was just 4-12 in 2020. These two teams have gone under in five straight head to head meetings, and they failed to score 40 combined points in three of the last four meetings. This number appears to be a little inflated.
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
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