No Country For Old Men – Tom Brady Battles Father Time

September 14th, 2017

No Country For Old Men – Tom Brady Battles Father Time

It was just seven months ago that Tom Brady threw for 466 yards and two TDs in an epic come from behind victory over the Falcons in the Super Bowl. He had an MVP caliber season in 2016, throwing for 3,554 yards and 28 TDs with just two INTs. He’s widely considered to be the best quarterback to ever play the game, but heading into Week 2 he owns the lowest completion percentage in the NFL for the current season.

Most football fans agree, it’s no time to panic. After all, the Patriots played the Chiefs in Week 1, and Kansas City is one of the NFL’s top defensive teams.

The bookmakers aren’t reading too much into New England’s Week 1 loss, as they have the Patriots as a 7-point road favorite at New Orleans this Sunday. It makes plenty of sense, as the Saints ranked dead last against the pass in 2016. They didn’t look any better in their Week 1 loss at Minnesota.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brady have a big game in this spot, but history isn’t exactly on his side. While there is sure to be a lot of bettors loading up on the Patriots, I would caution against it. Tom Brady is 40 years old, and he looked every bit his age last Thursday night. You are probably thinking to yourself: “he’s the same guy he was seven months ago.. it would be crazy to think he’s lost a step!” It might not be as crazy as you think. As sure as death and taxes, eventually he’s going to lose his edge. It might not happen this year, but it’s going to happen soon enough.

History tells us that the deterioration of an aging NFL quarterback can happen in the snap of a finger. Let us use the career of Brett Favre for example. At the age of 38, Favre had one of his best years ever for the Minnesota Vikings. He threw for 4,202 yards, 33 TDs and just 7 INTs in 2009. The following season the was picked off 19 times, throwing for just 2,509 yards and 11 TDs.

There are other factors working against Brady. He’s lost his most productive WR Julian Edelman for the rest of the season, and the Patriots defense appears to be in complete shambles. In fact the only team that ranks worse than New Orleans in pass defense right now is New England. Of course this is all based on a small sample size, it might be a little premature to predict the end of the Patriots dynasty. That being said, I would wait until they turn things around before I would be willing to bet my bankroll on Brady and New England as a prohibitive favorite.

If your plan was to bet the Patriots this weekend, do yourself a favor and come see The Iceman. I’ve got my NFL Game of the Month going this Sunday, and it’s a far better investment than gambling on a 40 year old quarterback with a Super Bowl hangover laying seven points on the road.

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Raptors vs Celtics	Raptors +2 -104	Premium	108-117	Loss	-104	Show
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Raptors, The Raptors and Celtics were supposed to be battling for top spot in the Eastern Conference this season, but Boston has been a major disappointment. The Celtics are seven games back of the first place Raptors in the standings. The home team has won nine straight meetings since the Raptors won 101-94 at The Garden in 2016. This is an opportunity for Toronto to make a statement, and the last time they faced such a challenge they beat the Bucks by a score of 123-116 in Milwaukee. They did that without Kyle Lowry, who is no back at full speed. The Celtics are banged up, with Kyrie Irving and Marcus Spart missing the last game. Toronto has been the better bet in this series, going 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take TOR. GL, Jesse Schule
Houston vs SMU	OVER 136 -110	Premium	69-58	Loss	-110	Show
This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go Over the total. The SMU Mustangs have gone under in five straight games, but Houston has gone over in four of their last five. Both teams have been shooting the ball well of late. Houston has scored 78.4 points on 43.7 percent shooting, while the Mustangs have averaged 75.6 points on 42.5 percent shooting over their last five games. Both teams are shooting out the lights at the free throw line, hitting 79.4 percent and 72.9 percent respectively over their last five games. The Cougars have gone over in three of their last four visits to Dallas. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule

Service	Profit
Ben Burns	$808
Stephen Nover	$771
Marc David	$644
Ray Monohan	$407
Dave Price	$356
John Ryan	$251
Zack Cimini	$145
Chip Chirimbes	$90
Jim Feist	$2

No Country For Old Men – Tom Brady Battles Father Time