No Country For Old Men – Tom Brady Battles Father Time

Written on September 14th, 2017 by Jesse Schule in
NFL

No Country For Old Men – Tom Brady Battles Father Time

It was just seven months ago that Tom Brady threw for 466 yards and two TDs in an epic come from behind victory over the Falcons in the Super Bowl. He had an MVP caliber season in 2016, throwing for 3,554 yards and 28 TDs with just two INTs. He’s widely considered to be the best quarterback to ever play the game, but heading into Week 2 he owns the lowest completion percentage in the NFL for the current season.

Most football fans agree, it’s no time to panic. After all, the Patriots played the Chiefs in Week 1, and Kansas City is one of the NFL’s top defensive teams.

The bookmakers aren’t reading too much into New England’s Week 1 loss, as they have the Patriots as a 7-point road favorite at New Orleans this Sunday. It makes plenty of sense, as the Saints ranked dead last against the pass in 2016. They didn’t look any better in their Week 1 loss at Minnesota.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brady have a big game in this spot, but history isn’t exactly on his side. While there is sure to be a lot of bettors loading up on the Patriots, I would caution against it. Tom Brady is 40 years old, and he looked every bit his age last Thursday night. You are probably thinking to yourself: “he’s the same guy he was seven months ago.. it would be crazy to think he’s lost a step!” It might not be as crazy as you think. As sure as death and taxes, eventually he’s going to lose his edge. It might not happen this year, but it’s going to happen soon enough.

History tells us that the deterioration of an aging NFL quarterback can happen in the snap of a finger. Let us use the career of Brett Favre for example. At the age of 38, Favre had one of his best years ever for the Minnesota Vikings. He threw for 4,202 yards, 33 TDs and just 7 INTs in 2009. The following season the was picked off 19 times, throwing for just 2,509 yards and 11 TDs.

There are other factors working against Brady. He’s lost his most productive WR Julian Edelman for the rest of the season, and the Patriots defense appears to be in complete shambles. In fact the only team that ranks worse than New Orleans in pass defense right now is New England. Of course this is all based on a small sample size, it might be a little premature to predict the end of the Patriots dynasty. That being said, I would wait until they turn things around before I would be willing to bet my bankroll on Brady and New England as a prohibitive favorite.

If your plan was to bet the Patriots this weekend, do yourself a favor and come see The Iceman. I’ve got my NFL Game of the Month going this Sunday, and it’s a far better investment than gambling on a 40 year old quarterback with a Super Bowl hangover laying seven points on the road.

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Jesse Schule

The Iceman's 9-1 start to the MLB season in 2022 was overshadowed by his PERFECT 10-0 start to the NFL season, and his 22-3 (88%) start with college football. Keep in mind .. HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF!

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Wings vs Sky	Wings +3½ -110	Premium	88-94	Loss	-110	Show
This is a 4* play on Dallas. The Wings are still undefeated, and last year they were the only team in the WNBA with a better record on the road than at home. They look good on the road here against a Chicago Sky team that lost three of it's top four scorers from last year. The Sky lost their only home game to a below average Washington Mystics squad, and both their wins have come against inferior opponents in close games. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule
AFC Bournemouth vs Everton	Everton -180	Premium	0-1	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on Everton. The math is simple for the Toffees, win and you're in. They appeared to be destined for relegation, but after earning points in three of their last four matches they are in the driver's seat here at home on "Survival Sunday". They draw a favorable matchup against a Bournemouth team that has nothing to play for, and has one of the worst goal differentials in away matches in the Premier League. In fact only Southampton ranks worse. GL, Jesse Schule
West Ham United vs Leicester	Leicester -107	Free	1-2	Win	100	Show
This a Free play on Leicester. Leicester needs a win here to avoid relegation, and they also need help. They face a West Ham club that should be resting players here ahead of a much bigger match that will decide if they play in Europe next season. The Hammers play Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League final on June 7, and a win will get them into the Europa League next year. That makes this match all the more meaningless for West Ham, and they are just 3-3-12 in away matches in the Premier League this season. GL, Jesse Schule
Nationals vs Royals	Nationals -104	Premium	2-3	Loss	-104	Show
This is a 4* play on WAS. The Nats have won five of their last seven, and they have a favorable matchup in Game 3 in Kansas City. MacKenzie Gore will toe the slab for Washington, and he's 2-1 with a 3.67 ERA in five starts on the road. The Royals hand the ball to Daniel Lynch, who got rocked in his last rehab start at Triple A Omaha. He allowed five runs on nine hits in 3 2/3 innings, but some chalked it up as a success because he also struck out eight. The Royals are 7-21 in their last 28 home games, and they have lost six of their last seven versus left-handers. GL, Jesse Schule
Reds vs Cubs	Cubs -150	Premium	8-5	Loss	-150	Show
This is a 4* play on CHC. The Bad News Bears have lost 10 of their last 13 overall, but if there is a silver lining they are playing at home against a Cincinnati team that has been just as bad. Graham Ashcraft will toe the rubber for the Reds, and he's been just crushed in his last two starts. He allowed 14 runs on 20 hits over 10 innings in losses to the Rockies and Cardinals. The Cubs hand the ball to Drew Smyly, who is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in five home starts. The Reds are 9-24 in their last 33 road games versus a left-handed starter. GL, Jesse Schule
Rangers vs Orioles	Orioles -142	Premium	2-3	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on BAL. The Rangers won the first two games of this series in Baltimore, but they have a tough pitching matchup here in Game 3. Cody Bradford will toe the rubber for the Rangers, and he's been torched for six runs on seven hits in five innings in a home loss to Atlanta in his debut. The Orioles hand the ball to Kyle Bradish, who is 1-0 with a 3.62 ERA in his last five starts. The Orioles are 11-4 in their last 15 games versus a left-handed starter, and they are 16-6 in their last 22 games following a loss. GL, Jesse Schule

No Country For Old Men – Tom Brady Battles Father Time