No Country For Old Men – Tom Brady Battles Father Time
No Country For Old Men – Tom Brady Battles Father Time
It was just seven months ago that Tom Brady threw for 466 yards and two TDs in an epic come from behind victory over the Falcons in the Super Bowl. He had an MVP caliber season in 2016, throwing for 3,554 yards and 28 TDs with just two INTs. He’s widely considered to be the best quarterback to ever play the game, but heading into Week 2 he owns the lowest completion percentage in the NFL for the current season.
Most football fans agree, it’s no time to panic. After all, the Patriots played the Chiefs in Week 1, and Kansas City is one of the NFL’s top defensive teams.
The bookmakers aren’t reading too much into New England’s Week 1 loss, as they have the Patriots as a 7-point road favorite at New Orleans this Sunday. It makes plenty of sense, as the Saints ranked dead last against the pass in 2016. They didn’t look any better in their Week 1 loss at Minnesota.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brady have a big game in this spot, but history isn’t exactly on his side. While there is sure to be a lot of bettors loading up on the Patriots, I would caution against it. Tom Brady is 40 years old, and he looked every bit his age last Thursday night. You are probably thinking to yourself: “he’s the same guy he was seven months ago.. it would be crazy to think he’s lost a step!” It might not be as crazy as you think. As sure as death and taxes, eventually he’s going to lose his edge. It might not happen this year, but it’s going to happen soon enough.
History tells us that the deterioration of an aging NFL quarterback can happen in the snap of a finger. Let us use the career of Brett Favre for example. At the age of 38, Favre had one of his best years ever for the Minnesota Vikings. He threw for 4,202 yards, 33 TDs and just 7 INTs in 2009. The following season the was picked off 19 times, throwing for just 2,509 yards and 11 TDs.
There are other factors working against Brady. He’s lost his most productive WR Julian Edelman for the rest of the season, and the Patriots defense appears to be in complete shambles. In fact the only team that ranks worse than New Orleans in pass defense right now is New England. Of course this is all based on a small sample size, it might be a little premature to predict the end of the Patriots dynasty. That being said, I would wait until they turn things around before I would be willing to bet my bankroll on Brady and New England as a prohibitive favorite.
If your plan was to bet the Patriots this weekend, do yourself a favor and come see The Iceman. I’ve got my NFL Game of the Month going this Sunday, and it’s a far better investment than gambling on a 40 year old quarterback with a Super Bowl hangover laying seven points on the road.
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Jesse Schule
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The Iceman's futures card for the 2014 FIFA WC might just be the single most INCREDIBLE achievement of his illustrious career. Not only did he pick Germany to win outright, he also correctly predicted 7-of-8 group winners. It's been more of the same since, as he's 61-33-3 +$17,120 with his last 100 soccer plays. Get every single play from the #1 SOCCER handicapper on this site for just $199.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State vs Duke | Michigan State +4 -109 | Premium | 75-69 | Win | 100 | Show |
PICKS IN PROGRESS
This is a 5* play on Under.
The Pacific Tigers have a win and a loss so far, and they went under in both of those games. A combination of strong defense and not so strong offense seems to be a recipe for low scoring games. Hitting less than half of their free throws certainly has been a factor. Montana State scored 91 points in a win over UNLV in their opener, but they have gone under in nine of their last 11 after scoring 90 or more points. The under is 7-1 in the Tigers last eight games following an ATS loss, and they have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven home games.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 5* play on Baltimore.
This drama has turned into quite a sh!t [email protected], but over the years we have learned that in the NFL anything can happen. Lamar Jackson (the reigning MVP) will not play, but I have never been a fan. I am not a believer in RGIII either, but the line swelling to double digits has tempted me to gamble on the Ravens to make it interesting.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 5* play on Over.
PSG has been dropping points in recent matches in the French league, coming off a draw versus Bordeaux and a loss to Montpellier. They also conceded five goals in those two matches, and they have conceded eight goals in their last five matches in all competitions. Manchester United has won four of their last five Premier League matches, scoring 12 goals in those games. Recent head to head meetings between these teams have also been high scoring, with United winning 2-1 and 3-1 in the last two matches.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
Top Cappers L7 Days
| Service | Profit |
|---|---|
| Sean Higgs | $1,807 |
| John Martin | $1,281 |
| Alex Smart | $812 |
| Chip Chirimbes | $759 |
| Art Aronson | $540 |
| Marc Lawrence | $490 |
| Will Rogers | $420 |
| Steve Janus | $413 |
| Kyle Hunter | $404 |
| Bryan Power | $346 |
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