Packers vs. Falcons 10/30/16 Betting Preview
Green Bay Packers (4-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-3) Betting Preview, Odds & Trends
Line/Odds: Atlanta -2.5 (5dimes)
Total: 52.5
Time: 4:25 pm ET
Location: Georgia Dome, Atlanta GA.
Television Broadcast: FOX
Betting Preview
It’s Green Bay’s defense and not their offense that is the reason they are 4-2. Their offense is ranked 28th in total offense with their vaunted passing game ranked 20th. they have been held to less than 24 points in 4 of their games and have scored more than 30 just once. Their defense is first in the league against the rush and fourth in total defense. They haven’t given up more than 30 points and and average 20.5 in points allowed. they have lost to both top tier teams they played and face another this week.
Atlanta has the league’s top offense in total yards and scoring and quarterback Matt Ryan is ranked first in the league. They have dropped 2 straight games but it was their defense that allowed a 17 point lead to slip away last week and the week before were sunk by a last minute field goal. The oddsmakers have made the Falcons a 2.5 point favorite and set the total at 52.5.
According to Covers.com Consensus Analysis 58% of the public feel that the home field will help the Falcons and are backing them. A huge 70% think the offenses will control this game qand are behind the over.
The Packers have won the last four meetings between these teams.
Previous Meetings
02/07/16: Falcons 37 @ Packers 43
11/11/12: Falcons 21 @ Packers 22
12/14/08: Packers 25 @ Falcons 14
Trends
- The underdog has covered the spread in seven of the last nine meetings
- The road team has covered the spread in the last four meetings
- The over is 6-1 in the Falcons last seven games overall
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This is a free play on Over 2.5.
After Bremen and Heidenheimer played a scoreless draw in the first leg of this relegation/promotion playoff, perhaps we see a bit of recency bias at play in the second leg. The total is taking back plus money betting the over 2.5, which seems like a bargain in a match that could be decided on away goals. While neither team scored in the fist leg, the previous two head to head meetings saw a combined eight goals. Bremen scored six goals the last time they were faced with a must win game, and I very much doubt they will be held off the score sheet in this match.
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Jesse Schule
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
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- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
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Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
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AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
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