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Packers vs. Falcons Betting Preview 01/22/17 – NFC Title Game

January 22nd, 2017

Green Bay Packers (10-6) vs. Atlanta Falons (11-5) Betting Preview


Line/Odds: Atlanta -5.5 (5dimes)
Total: 60.5
Time: 3:05 pm ET
Location: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA.
Television Broadcast: FOX


Betting Preview

Two of the league’s best quarterbacks face off in what many believe will be a high scoring shootout when the Packers play the Falcons in the NFC Championship game.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay was the fourth ranked quarterback in the league as he threw for over 4400 yards and a league leading 40 touchdowns. It didn’t look like the Packers were going anywhere except home after the season when they were sitting with a 4-6 record after having lost their fourth straight game. That was the last game the Packers lost as Rodgers led them to six straight wins to close out the season. He threw 15 touchdown passes without an interception and had three of his six 300 yard games over those last six games.

Quarterback Matt Ryan of Atlanta was ranked second in the league with over 4900 yards and 38 touchdown passes as he led the highest scoring team in the NFL (33.8 points a game) to their fifth straight win last week over the Seahawks in the Division Playoff. It was also the fifth straight game the Falcons have scored over 30 points in a game. Both teams defenses are pretty much equal with the Falcons giving up 25 points a game and the Packers 24 points a game. The Packers have the edge stopping the run but that might not matter in this game.

The oddsmakers have made Atlanta a 5.5 point favorite and set the total at way up at 60.5. According to Covers.com Consensus Analysis 64% of the public like the idea of Green Bay as an underdog and are behind the Packers while 61% believe the quarterbacks will put points on the board and are backing the over.

The Falcons won the first meeting at the end of November in an exciting 33-32 victory.

Previous Meetings

10/30/16: Packers 32 @ Falcons 33
12/08/14: Falcons 37 @ Packers 43
12/08/13: Falcons 21 @ Packers 22

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

Career Highlights:

- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)

- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)

- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)

- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)

- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)

- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)

Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.

Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.

Signature Plays:

AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.

The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.

GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.

HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available