Packers vs. Lions Betting Preview 01/01/17 – Sunday Night Football
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Betting Preview
This is the final game of the regular season and it will decide the winner of the NFC North Division.
Green Bay who was sitting at 4-6 after a four game losing streak have turned it around and won five straight games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has also turned his season around throwing 11 touchdowns without an interception during the streak capped by four of those touchdown passes last week in a win over Minnesota. The defense has also played much better. After allowing at least 31 points in each game during their four game losing streak, they have held three of their last five opponents to 13 points or less.
The Lions on the other hand have dropped 2 straight games after having their five game winning streak broken by the Giants three weeks ago. Quarterback Matthew Stafford who injured a finger on his throwing hand has thrown just one touchdown and four interceptions in his last three games. The Lions offense hasn’t scored more than 21 points in four of their last five games and their defense gave up 42 points to Dallas last week which is the most they have given up all season.
The oddsmakers have made the Packers a 3.5 point favorite with the total now at 49.5 after being bet up from the opening of 46.5. According to Covers.com Consensus Analysis 65% of the public are behind Green Bay despite Detroit’s 6-1 home record while a whopping 71% still favor the over even after the total has risen.
The margin of victory has been by seven points or less the last three times these two teams have met.
Previous Meetings
09/25/16: Lions 27 @ Packers 34
12/03/15: Packers 27 @ Lions 23
11/15/15: Lions 18 @ Packers 16
Trends
- The Packers have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 meetings
- The home team has covered the spread in six of their last eight meetings
- The under is 8-1 in the Lions last nine games overall
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 10-0 start to NFL Season (2022)
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 1-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.5 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to five percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available