Larry Ness - Betting Expert

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oak A's at 3:00 ET.

MLB's pandemic-shortened regular season was limited to regional play and as the postseason begins, SEVEN of the eight wild-card series involve teams that haven't played any meaningful games against each other since last year (the lone exception being Tampa Bay taking Toronto in an all-AL East matchup). The Oakland A's will host the Chicago White Sox in Game 1 of this best-of-three series and the two teams are not only meeting for the first time this season but also for the first time EVER in postseason play. 

The White Sox were coming off a 72-89 season in 2019 but at 35-25, earned the first AL wild-card spot (No. 7 seed). Chicago tied Cleveland for second in the AL Central (both teams finished just ONE game back of the first-place Twins) but the Indians won the tiebreaker thanks to an 8-2 head-to-head record. Chicago's playing postseason baseball for the first time since 2008. The A's enter the 2020 season off back-to-back wild card appearances in 2018 and 2019, jumping out to a 12-4 start and NEVER looking back in the AL West. Oakland finished 36-24 (AL's No. 2 seed) while cruising to its first AL West title since 2013, SEVEN games ahead of the second-place Astros. 

Game 1's starting pitchers are Chicago's Lucas Giolito (4-3, 3.48 ERA) and Oakland's Jesus Luzardo (3-2, 4.12 ERA). Giolito struggled in his rookie season (2018) with a 10-13 record (6.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). However, he went 14-9 in 2019, lowering his ERA by more than 2 1/2 runs (3.41) and his WHIP to 1.06. He was named Chicago's Opening Day starter but lasted just 3.2 innings while allowing seven ERs in a 10-5 loss to the Twins. However, he pitched well enough over his next nine starts (2.54 ERA) to have the White Sox go 7-2. Giolito went winless in his last three starts (Chicago was 1-2) due mostly to getting just seven runs of offensive support, allowing eight ERs in 17.2 innings (4.08 ERA). He's 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two career starts against the A's.

Luzardo made just six relief appearances in 2019, posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP but he pitched a total of just 12 innings. He made 12 appearances in 2020 (nine starts), with the A's going 6-3 in those starts (his ERA was 3.83). Looking a little closer we find that Luzardo has pitched well at home this season, going 3-1 in six starts (team was 5-1) with a 2.40 ERA and a .215 BAA. He shut out three of his six home opponents, the Rangers (8/4), D'backs (8/19) and Giants (9/19), over 17.1 innings. Luzardo pitched three innings of one-hit, shutout relief in last year's loss to the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL wild-card game in his only previous postseason experience.

As noted, the A's played in the postseason in each of the last two seasons, while the White Sox are in the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The White Sox were 32-16 and had the best record in the AL on Sep 15 but 'limp in' having lost NINE of their last 12. The A's were a combined 102-60 (.630) at home in 2018 and 2019 but improved their home winning percentage in 2020's shortened season, going 22-10 (.688). There is little margin for error in these best-of-three series and I want the home dog in this Game 1.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 2:00 ET.

The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central in 2019 at 101-61, the team's first 100-win season since 1965. The Twins repeated as NL Central champs in 2020's 60-game schedule, going 36-24 (one game ahead of the White Sox and Indians). Minnesota is the AL's No. 3 seed and gets to play this best-of-three series at home against the AL's No. 6 seed. It's hard to believe but that No. 6 seed is the 29-31 Houston Astros, one of TWO teams in MLB 2020 to make the expanded playoff-field with a losing record (Milwaukee Brewers are the other). With allude respect to Milwaukee, the Brewers didn't enter the current season coming off THREE straight division titles (AL West), while winning 101, 103 and 107 games, respectively from 2017-2019. The Astros made the World Series in both 2017 (won) and 2019 (lost).

Game 1 of the series will feature Zach Greinke (3-3, 4.03 ERA) going up against Kenta Maeda (6-1, 2.70 ERA). Greinke won the AL's Cy Young award back in 2009 with KC (16-8, 2.16 ERA) and from 2011-19 he was one of MLB's top starters. However, he's NOT had a good season in 2020 and is 5-9 with a 4.64 ERA in 24 career appearances (20 starts / teams are just 5-15!) against the Twins, including 1-4 with a 5.14 ERA in seven starts at Target Field. He also has NEVER had much success in the postseason. He's made 16 postseason starts, going 3-6 with a 4.21 ERA, which is 0.84 higher than his career ERA of 3.37 in the regular season. Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games) but was moved to the bullpen last season. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. The Twins placed him in the starting rotation right away and Maeda has made that decision look VERY good, as the Twins are 8-3 in his starts and he owns a 0.75 WHIP (MLB-best!) and .168 BAA to go along with his solid 2.70 ERA.

Yes, the Twins have lost 16 straight postseasons and you may have heard that Houston manager Dusty Baker has become the first manager in baseball history to lead FIVE different teams to the postseason. Baker had previously taken the Giants (1997, 2000, 2002), Cubs (2003), Reds (2010, 2012, 2013), and Nationals (2016, 2017) the playoffs. Here' what has been left out regarding Baker's postseason record. His 2002 Giants led the Angels 3-2 in the World Series and were up 5-0 in Game 6 entering the bottom of the 7th. However, the Angels would rally for a 6-5 win and capture the World Series in Game 7. Baker moved to the Cubs in 2003 and in the NLCS vs Miami, led 3-1 before losing THREE in row. Game 6 was the infamous "Steve Bartman game," when the Marlins scored EIGHT runs in the top of the 8th inning to erase a 3-0 deficit. One cue, Baker's Cubs lost Game 7. Since that debacle, Baker's teams have lost all FOUR postseason series he's managed in, plus lost one "winner-take-all" wild card game. You really want to back a Baker-coached team? 

Getting down to brass tacks, after being MLB's best road team the previous three seasons from 2017-19 (157-86, .646), the Astros went a deplorable 9-23 (.281) on the road in 2020. They compiled a 5.66 team ERA. Meanwhile, the Twins were a MLB-best 24-7 (.774) at home, producing a 2.89 team ERA. Here's the clincher. Greinke's made five road starts in 2020 and the Astros have lost ALL five, while Maeda has made five home starts, with the Twins winning ALL five (1.91 ERA / .109 BAA). That's 100% against and for!

Good luck...Larry