Larry Ness - Betting Expert

My 10* CBB Game of the Year is on Nevada at 10:00 ET.

Justin Hutson spent two 'tours' as an assistant at SD St, sandwiched around a stint as an assistant at UNLV, before getting his first head coaching job at Fresno St for the 2018-19 season. He took over a program that had won 20-plus games the previous three seasons and continued that success by leading last year's Bulldogs to a 23-9 season, including a  3rd-place finish in the MWC (13-5). However, he lost THREE starters off that team, including his two highest scorers, guards Huggins (18.5 & 4.3) and Taylor (17.9-3.7-5.0). Fresno has struggled in Hutson's second season, entering this contest 10-17, including 6-10 in league play.

Eric Mussleman led Nevada to the CBI title in his first season (2015-16) and then to three straight NCAA appearances with win totals of 28, 29 and 29. However, Musselman left for Arkansas and was replaced by Steve Alford. The former Indiana star had coaching success at Missouri St and New Mexico but was generally viewed as a 'flop' at UCLA, where he was fired during last season. He took over a Nevada team that lost all FIVE starters but Alford's done a good job, as the Woolf Pack enter this game 17-10 overall, including 10-5 in the MWC (currently 3rd). ALL schools are "looking up" at SD St but 2nd-place and sixth-place in the MWC finds teams bunched with in 1 1/2 games of each other.

Fresno St beat Air Force 71-62 at home on Thursday, as guard senior Blackwell (9.7-3.1-3.1) matched a career high with 25 points and is joined in the backcourt by fellow senior Williams (11.9). 6-10 freshman Robinson (12.7 & 6.8) and 6-8 senior Grimes (11.6 & 10.0) are Fresno's top frontcourt players. Nevada is led by a deep backcourt. Jalen Harris, a La Tech transfer, leads the way averaging 21.8-6.5-4.0. He's joined by returning guards Johnson (16.2 & 3.4), Drew (11.1-6.7-4.3) and Zouzoua (9.6). No frontcourt player averages more than 20 minutes per game but a "group of four" combine to add 18.6 PPG and 16.5 RPG. Two 6-10 big men, freshman Meeks (6.9 & 4.0) and senior Reyes (4.7 & 4.4), are the best of the bunch.

Beating Air Force at home is no big deal (Falcons are 4-1 in MWC play) and I'll note that FSU entered that contest on a 2-6 ATS run. This marks Fresno’s final road game and it's being played at elevation like at Colorado St, where the Bulldogs lost by 18 points! Meanwhile, Nevada comes in on 4-0 SU & ATS run (not to mention the school's 8-1 ATS mark since mid-January). Nevada is in "prime" position to finish among the top-5 in the Mountain West, thereby earning a first-round bye (note: Wolf Pack are just a HALF-GAME behind second-place Utah St). Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Ole Miss at 8:30 ET.

Alabama takes a 14-12 overall record (6-7 in the SEC) into a game Saturday night in Oxford against the 13-13 Ole Miss Rebels (4-9 SEC). The Crimson Tide have been competitive against the best in the SEC but come to Mississippi losers of FIVE of seven, after an 'ugly' 74-68 home loss to a 13-12 Texas A&M team. Any more losses like the one suffered Wednesday and Alabama can probably 'kiss an at-large NCAA berth goodbye!" Ole Miss won three straight from Feb 5-11 but enters this contest off back-to-back road losses, 67-62 at Kentucky and 71-68 at Missouri. Ole Miss is now 1-6 in games decided by fewer than six points, including 0-5 in the SEC.

Alabama owns a deep backcourt, with three in double digits. Lewis (17.5-5.1-5.0) leads the way, along with Petty (15.0 & 7.0) and Shackelford (14.7 & 4.3). The 6-9 Reese (9.4 & 4.6) and the 6-7 Jones (8.9 & 6.6) are the top frontcourt performers. Ole Miss counters with a deep backcourt, as well. Tyree (20.3) is outstanding and is joined by Shuler (11.2-4.7-3.5) and Hinson (10.3 & 5.0). The 6-67 Buffen (9.9 & 6.1) and the 6-10 Sy (9.4 & 5.5) give the Rebels a small edge up front.

Senior guard Breein Tyree has been on a tear, averaging 29.8 points in the last five contests, including games of 38 points and a career-high 40. The worst Ole Miss home-floor performance has been a four-point loss to then-No. 18 LSU and I'll take them here vs an Alabama team that opened 15-3 ATS but enters this contest just 3-5 ATS over its last eight.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Tulsa at 3:00 ET.

It's 18-7 SMU at 17-9 Tulsa on Saturday in AAC play. Both schools come off losses on Wednesday, as SMU fell 80-72 at Tulane (now 8-5 in league play), while Tulsa lost 76-43 at No. 22 Houston (now 9-4 in league play). Losing at ranked at Houston (Cougars sit atop the AAC at 11-3) is understandable but losing at Tulane (Green Wave entered on a NINE-game losing streak and is just 3-11 in AAC), is another thing altogether.

Tim Jankovich won 20-plus games in four of his five seasons at Illinois St, making four NIT appearances. He was announced as SMU's Associate Head Coach and coach-in-waiting in April of 2016 and then as head coach on July 8, 2016.. He's had to bear the full force of NCAA sanctions due to Larry Brown's tenure but things are looking up this season. SMU breezed through a not-so-difficult non-conference schedule and few are complaining in Dallas with the Mustangs' 18-7 record. Jankovich has two guards and two forwards making most of the contributions for his SMU team this season. PG Kendric Davis (a TCU transfer) owns a line of 15.3-4.5-7.0 and is joined in the backcourt by JC transfer Tyson Jolly (14.7 & 6.2). Then there are two 6-8 forwards, Isiaha Mike (14.2 & 6.4) and Feron Hunt (12.0 & 6.8). The 6-9 Chargois, who averaged 12.4 & 6.2 last season, continues to under-performed (6.8 & 3.8

Tulsa head coach Frank Haith has had stops at Miami-Fl and Missouri before coming to Tulsa, where he led the Golden Hurricane to back-to-back 20-win seasons in his first two seasons at the school. However, Tulsa entered this season on a three-year postseason drought, so the team's 17-9 record so far, is "big news" in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are led by the trio of guard Rachal (19.9 & 6.1) plus forwards Igbanu (12.9 & 4.8) and Hunt (11.1 & 5.1). Four more guards all play 20-plus minutes, combining for 26.3 PPG.

SMU has been sensational at Moody Coliseum (14-1) but have managed just a ONE victory in SIX opportunities on the road during league play (an upset of Memphis on Jan 25). Tulsa 'fell apart' Wednesday at Houston (got outscored 50-23 after the break) but has been tough here at home, going 12-3. The team's 'resume' includes home wins over now-No. 22 Houston (63-61), then-No. 20 Memphis (80-40!) and then-No. 23 Wichita St (54-51). Not sure why a team 1-6 in league play is 'priced' this way on Tulsa's homecourt? I guess we'll find out who is right. I've got the home team.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Florida St at 4:00 ET.

22-4 Florida St is 12-3 in the ACC (tied with Duke, right behind 13-3 Louisville) and the No. 8 Seminoles, who have been ranked in the top-10 for a school-record seven straight weeks, will visit the 17-9 North Carolina St Woflpack on Saturday. NC State came up huge its last time out, taking down No. 6 Duke 88-66 at home, handing the Blue Devils' their largest margin of defeat to an unranked opponent in 40 seasons under Mike Krzyzewski. The win gives NC State an 8-7 record in ACC play (5th) but the Wolfpack are just one game in front of FOUR 7-8 teams!

Leonard Hamilton-coached teams are always known for playing excellent defense but his teams have shown more offensive 'punch' the last few seasons. That's continued in the 2019-20 season, as the Seminoles are holding opponents to 65.6 PPG, but are also scoring 75.6 PPG,.The Seminoles wear down teams with their depth and balance on offense, as the top-four scorers produce between 9.2 and 13.0 PPG. Sophomore guard Devin Vassell leads the team at 13.0 PPG (also leads with 5.3 RPG), just ahead of senior guard Trent Forrest (11.6-4.4-4.3). Junior guard M.J. Walker (10.5) is the third double digit scorer, while fellow guard Polite (9.2) just misses. A trio of forwards combine for 21.2 PPG and 12.0 RPG plus 7-1 freshman center Kuprivica adds 5.1 & 2.7.

PG Markell Johnson (13.2-4.6-6.4) led NC State with 28 points against Duke and fellow guard Daniels (12.6 & 5.2) added 25 points (both were career highs!). C.J. Bryce, is the team's leading scorer (13.7) and rebounder (6.3) but had an off night with just seven points on 3-of-10 shooting. However, he led the team with 10 rebounds. The 6-10 Funderburk (12.6 & 6.0) and the 6-7 Hellems (9.5 & 3.6) are NC State's top frontcourt players.

FSU won 26 games in the 2016-17 season and 29 games last year but while the 2017-18 team won "only" 23 games, it reached the Elite 8. Some feel that this is arguably Hamilton's best team at Tallahassee (time will tell). As for NC State, the Wolfpack are in a classic "let down" situation, as the 22-point win over Duke was NC State's largest margin of victory over a top-10 foe since 1965. "Right TIME & PLACE" for FSU to be visiting Raleigh.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Eye-Opener is on UVA/Pitt Over at 12 noon ET.

Virginia lost FOUR of five games from Jan 7 thru Jan 20 and that slide began talk that the reigning national champions might not even make the NCAA Tournament, as the Cavs were just 126, including 4-4 in ACC play. However, Virginia appears to finally have found some answers to its season-long search for offensive weapons, as the Cavs cored a season-high 78 points in a 13-point win over Boston College on Wednesday in reaching 10 ACC wins for a school-record eighth straight season (18-7 overall / 10-5 in ACC). UVA looks for its SEVENTH win in its last eight games at Pittsburgh on Saturday, in the only game between the teams this season. Jeff Capel's team lost its SIXTH game in its last eight in Tuesday's 82-67 home loss to No. 8 Florida State, but the head coach Jeff Capel was quick to point out that the team has already surpassed last season's win total and has more ACC wins then the last two years combined.

UVA's "Core 4" this season has been its unique guard duo of 5-9 PG Clark (10.6-4.2-6.6) and the 6-8 Key (10.0 & 7.2), teamed with the 6-9 Diatke (13.5 & 6.6) and 7-1 Huff (8.2 & 6.2). However, after a poor start to the season, Tomas Woldentensae (a 6-5 junior guard from Italy) has emerged as the offensive wild card the Cavaliers have been seeking. In THREE of his previous six games, he'd made six or more three-pointers, and in Wednesday win made four of eight on his way to 14 points. He's now 28 for 60 (46.7%) over his last seven games, averaging 13.7 PPG. Pittsburgh has FIVE guards all playing 28-plus minutes per game, chipping in between 8.9 and 12.4 PPG. Freshman Champagnie leads in scoring (12.4) and rebounding (7.2), while sophomores McGowens (12.1-3.5-3.6) and Johnson (11.8-3.8-5.1) join him in double digits.

Virginia has won four straight in the series and 11 of 12.The Cavs come in off their beat offensive game of the season and the Panthers have struggled on defense, ranking last in ACC games in effective field-goal percentage (51.9) and defensive rebound percentage (66.3). On the season, Pitt scores 65.9 PPG and allows 64.6. Looking at Pitt's entire schedule, this is the lowest over/under number posted on a Pittsburgh game (opened 109). One has to go back to neutral-site games vs Kansas St on Nov 25 (total closed 117.5) and Northwestern on Nov 27 (120) to see anything close to this low. FYI...Both of those games went over, as will this one!

Good luck...Larry