Larry Ness - Betting Expert

My free play is on the Mia Heat at 7:40 ET.

The Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors made a major trade in August, with the Heat getting veteran PG Kyle Lowry, while the Raptors got veteran PG Goran Dragic and young forward Precious Achiuwa in the trade. Lowry is averaging (13,4 & 8.3 APG) for Miami, while Dragic is out due to personal reasons and has played just FIVE games for Toronto. However, Achiuwa is starting for Toronto, averaging 7.9 & 7.6.

Unlike in the West where hte 33-9 Suns (.786) and the 31-12 Warriors (.721) are playing better than .700 basketball, the 27-14 Bulls lead the East (.649) and the top-six seeds are separated by a mere 2.5 games. The Heat are 27-16 (No. 3 seed and just ONE game back of the Bulls), while 21-19 Raptors are currently among the 7-10 seeds that would be headed to the "Play-In" round. Note that Toronto is currently three games back of the No. 6 seed (last guaranteed playoff spot) but also just ONE game ahead of the 11th seed, the last team left out of the play-in tourney.

The Raptors enter this contest with SEVEN wins in its last nine games. The team's top-three scorers have led the way. PG Fred VanVleet (21.9-4.9-6.7), PF Pascal Siakam (21.1-8.5-4.8) and SF Anunoby (19.4 & 5.1), who is having a career season). Toronto beat the Milwaukee Bucks 103-96 Saturday night, as Siakam posted 30 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists for his second-career triple-double. The Raptors won without Trent (16.4) and rookie Barnes (14.5 & 7.9) not playing. Bothe are listed as questionable for Monday night, Trent with an ankle issue and Barnes with a knee issue).

Lowry will miss tonight (personal reasons) but the really good news is that center Bam Adebayo (18.7 & 10.2), who has played just 18 games (hasn't played since Nov 29) is expected back for this contest. SF Butler (22.6-5.7-5.7) and guard Herro (20.6-4.9-4.1 are both topping 20 points. Consistent contributors all season have been guard Robinson (11.5) and PF Tucker (8.5 & 5.7).

Miami comes in after having its four-game win streak snapped on Saturday night in a 109-98 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.mJimmy Butler shot just 1 for 11, Lowry made 2 of 11 and Duncan Robinson was 1 of 9, while missing all EIGHT of his three-point attempts. Any chance the Heat can possibly shoot that poorly again? This is the first meeting of the season between the two teams and note Miami is 18-8 against the Eastern Conference and 13-5 at home. Meanwhile, Toronto is just 13-12 vs the East and 9-8 on the road. I'm backing the heat.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Cavs at 3:10 ET.

"If it's not ONE thing, it's ANOTHER!" The Brooklyn Nets had anticipated that a stretch of road games would give them significant minutes with their star trio of Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving on the floor. So, what happens? Durant sprained the medial collateral ligament in his left knee on Saturday and will be sidelined for at least a month. The 27-15 Nets have closed within a half-game of the East's No. 1 (Bulls) but now open a four-game trip Monday afternoon without K.D. when they visit the Cleveland Cavaliers. "Guys got to step up. It's simple," Harden said. "Obviously you know how great of a player KD is and what he brings to the table each and every night consistently. So, guys got to step up and fill that role and just continue to compete." No problem, right James? The Nets have played just two games with the trio since the unvaccinated Irving is ineligible to play home games due to New York City's vaccine mandate. In the first game with the trio, Brooklyn rallied from 19 down to beat Indiana on Jan 5 and in the second game, the Nets routed the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday.

The Cavs welcome the Nets to town at 26-18. That's good enough for the East's No. 6 seed and with NO team sprinting out to a great start, the Cavs find themselves just 2.5 games back of the Bulls. That's some accomplishment, as the Cavs entered this season having gone 60-159 (.274) the last three seasons, after LBJ 'flew the coop' for the second time, this time to Hollywood, instead of South Beach. The Cavs have EASILY been one of the NBA's biggest surprise this season, even though they lost Sexton (16.0 PPG) for the season to a knee injury early on and then vet PG Rubio (13.1-4.1-6.6) went down with a knee injury as well after 34 games (he's also done for the year). 

Monday begins a stretch in which the Nets play 12 of their next 17 on the road, but with Durant (29.3-7.4-5.8) likely sidelined for most, if not all, of the games. The Nets will likely lean on Harden (22.7-8.0-10.0) even more than usual. Harden totaled 27 points, 15 assists and eight rebounds Saturday and is averaging 27.2 points in 11 games since returning from COVID-19 protocol on Christmas. Irving (17.7-5.0-3.7 in three games) will play in the road games (we think?), while the Nets will also rely on Patty Mills (13.4), as well as rookies like guard Cam Thomas (7.7), the 6-9 Day'Ron Sharpe (5.9 & 2.2) and SF Kessler Edwards (8.0 & 4.2).

The Cavs are starting a HUGE frontline with 6-10 center Allen (16.6 & 11.0) surrounded by two 6-11 players, rookie Mobley (15.0 & 8.0) and Markkanen (13.3 & 5.3). PG Graland leads the team in scoring (19.7) and assists (7.8). Rondo was just picked up to help in the backcourt (10.3-4.0-4.7 in his first three games) but he's out with an ankle injury. Former All Star Love has settled in coming off the bench and is averaging 14.0 & 7.2. Cleveland lost to Brooklyn TWICE within a week in November but is 17-9 since that time and enters on a four-game winning streak, after overcoming an 18-point deficit in an 107-102 win in Oklahoma City that capped an impressive 5-1 road trip with the only loss coming at Golden State back on Jan 9.

In recent years, Cleveland did not have the talent to "avenge" losses, but this year is DIFFERENT. Rookie Evan Mobley, who missed the first two games against the Nets due to a right elbow injury, added 20 points Saturday and is averaging 17.8 points in 11 games since spending time in the protocol. PG Darius Garland scored 27 points and had a career-high 18 assists Saturday and has scored 59 points in his past two games following a three-game shooting slump. Believe it or not, Cleveland is actually inching closer in an Eastern Conference race where only 2 1/2 games separate the top six teams. The Cavs gain another 'inch' with a "W" in this one!

Good luck...Larry

 My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Hawks at 6:05 ET.

Tonight's Milwaukee/Atlanta game will feature Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo (28.5 PPG ranks 3rd) and Atlanta's Trae Young (27.6 PPG ranks 4th) but also a Milwaukee team that's lost FIVE of its last seven while the Hawks have lost FIVE in a row.

Antetokounmpo, a two-time league MVP, scored 30 points Saturday in a 103-96 loss to the Toronto Raptors. He has scored 30-plus points in SEVEN of his last eight games, and in the 16 games since the beginning of December, he has averaged 30.4 points and 10.7 rebounds. SF Middleton (19.1-5.5-5.3) is again having an excellent season but Milwaukee was without Jrue Holiday (18.4-4.6-6.7) for the fifth straight game because of a sore left ankle. Holiday practiced on Friday, but did not play on Saturday, and could return on Monday. However, Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer said he wasn't ready to rush Holiday back into the lineup. The good news is that both Allen (12.1) and Connaughton (10.5 & 4.6) are back from the COVID list. Center Brook Lopez has played just ONE game this season, but the 6-10 Bobby Portis (15.4 & 9.2) has really done an excellent job filling in (has played in 36 of 45 games).

Atlanta has been hurt by the absence of center Clint Capela (11.3 & 13.1), who has missed four games with a sprained ankle. Without Capela, the Hawks have relied on Gorgui Dieng and Onyeka Okongwu, the team's 2020 first-round draft choice. The extra playing time seems to have benefited Okongwu (8.9 & 6.1), who didn't play until Dec 17 because of offseason shoulder surgery. Young's (27.6 & 9.3 APG) backcourt mate Bogdanovich (12.0) is out but the Hawks have Huerter (11.2) and Gallinari (10.2 & 4.2) to fill in. PF Collins (17.3 & 7.8) continues to play at an All Star level plus Hunter (11.6) finally returned on Jan 12 (had been out since Nov 12) and has averaged 14.3 PPG in his first three games back.

Milwaukee is of course, the defending champs but at 27-18, curently own just the East's No. 4 seed (two games back of the No. 1 seed). As for the Hawks, their terrific playoff run last postseason seems like 'ages' ago, as they are just 17-25 and have currently lost 10 straight home games (hard to believe!). That said, my bet says 10 is ENOUGH. The Bucks are not as good as they were last year (team is averaging 111.6 PPG, down from a league-high 120.1 last season) and I'm "all over" the home dog in this one. Bow Wow!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on Arizona St at 4:00 ET.

Craig Smith is in his first season as Utah's head coach (had a great three-year run at Utah St in going 74-24) and led the Utes to wins over Abilene Christian, Sacramento State, Bethune-Cookman, Boston College and Tulsa with an average margin of victory of 19.8 points to begin the season. However, a 75-64 loss at BYU on Nov 27 set in motion a 3-9 slide that includes a 1-6 start in the Pac 12. The 8-9 Utes have lost FIVE consecutive games with their last win coming back on Dec 21 at home against Fresno State. ASU head coach Bob Hurley is in his eighth season in Tempe, and it looks as if this year's team is no better than the one that went 11-14 last season. ASU opened 2-6, then won THREE in a row but the 5-9 Sun Devils (1-3 ac 12) have a three-game losing streak since winning at Creighton back on Dec 14 (COVID cancellations and postponements haven't helped).

Utah saw its best player Timmy Allen (17.2 & 6.4) transfer to Texas but key returning players from last year's team are the 7-0 Carlson and the 6-9 Battin. Guards Worster and Anthony (6.4 & 8.6) followed Smith from Utah St plus guard Jenkins came via UNLV and Gach, who started at Utah but moved on to Minnesota, returned this year to play for Smith. Checking on the above-listed players finds that Carlson (13.5 & 6.4) has played well but Battin (5.8 & 4.5) has underachieved. Guards Gach (11.0), Jenkins (10.5), Anthony (8.9 & 7.3) and Worster (7.4-4.2-3.1 have all contributed plus freshman guard Stefanovic has added 7.1 PPG.

Arizona State's scoring issues have suffered because returning guard Bagley (10.8 PPG) was lost to a knee injury after just THREE games (was averaging 10.4). That leaves two double digit scorers in guard Horne (13.4) and 6-6 SF Lawrence (10.4 & 7.5). Hurley was really counting on Toledo grad transfer Jackson, who was the MAC player-of-the-year last season, averaging 18.1-6.2-5.9. However, his scoring has been cut by more than half (7.3 PPG), while adding 4.1 RPG and 3.7 APG. The other two starters are guard Muhammad (6.5) and the 6-9 Graham (5.8 & 3.2). Guard Heath (9.9 & 3.8) and the 6-9 Gaffney (4.6 & 4.5) both get time off the bench.

Either Utah or Arizona State will break back into the win column Monday afternoon but even though Utah looks like the better team on paper, it's hard to ignore that the Utes have lost four conference games on the road against USC, Oregon State, Oregon and Arizona by an average of 15.8 points! It sure doesn't help that Utah is without center Brendan Carlson, who is out for two to three weeks with an abdominal injury. I'm sticking with the home team here, expecting Utah to lose again by 10-plus points on the Pac 12 road!

Good luck...Larry

 My 10* Conference Game of the Month (MWC) is on Nevada at 8:00 ET.

The 12-2 Wyoming Cowboys (1-0 MWC) and the 8-6 Nevada Wolf Pack (2-1 MWC) meet in MWC action from the Lawlor Events Center on Monday. Jeff Linder came from No. Colorado where he won 26 (CIT champion), 21 and 22 games in his final three years, earning him the Wyoming gig. His first team went 14-11 but this year's team is an impressive 12-2. This is Steve Alford's third season at Nevada, having gone 19-12 and 15-9 in his first two seasons. However, with all five starters returning, a strong season was anticipated. That has NOT been the case.

Wyoming had its first four games of January postponed but finally got back on the court Jan 15, winning 71-69 at Utah St. The 6-9 Ike (19.7 & 8.4) and PG Maldanado (17.6-5.7-5.9) make for quite a duo. They are joined in the starting lineup by guards DuSell (10.8) and Jeffries (10.3 & 4.9) plus the 6-9 Oden (9.1 & 4.9). Defense is a team strength (63.5 PPG allowed ranks 57th) but depth is an issue.

Nevada PG Sherfield (19.5-4.5-6.4) leads a starting lineup that features three guards, the 7-0 Washington (11.4 & 7.0) and the 6-7 Coleman (3.6 & 3.4). Sherfield's backcourt partners are Cambridge (16.4 & 4.6) and Blacksher (6.7 & 4.3). The 7-0 Baker comes off the bench to add 11.4 & 5.4.

Wyoming beat Nevada BOTH times last season but I see that as a plus in motivation for the Wolf Pack, who really need a "W" in this one. Nevada is 3-2 SU in its last five games but 0-5 ATS. That all changes here. Wyoming went from Christmas until this past Saturday, without playing a game and now plays its second road game in three days. The "Time" and "Price" is just right for Nevada.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.

The Arizona Cardinals opened the season 7-0 and through Week 13, stood at 10-2. However, the Cards would lose FOUR of their last five (lone exception was a 25-22 win at Dallas in Week 17 that clinched a playoff spot) to finish 11-6. That left them ONE game worse than the LA Rams, who captured the NFC West with a 12-5 record. The Rams opened the season 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, falling to 7-4 (Cards were 9-2 thru 11 games). At that time, it looked as if the Rams were headed for a wild card berth and the Cards for the division title. However, the Rams would win FIVE straight games and even with a Week 18 home loss to the 49ers (blew a 17-0 lead to lose in OT), were able to earn the NFC West title, as the Cards lost in Week 18 at home to Seattle.

That sets the stage for Rams to play host to the Cards in the first-ever Monday night playoff game. The Cardinals-Rams primetime showdown will be the third meeting between the teams, with the road team having won the previous two. The game will not only be Kyler Murray's playoff debut, but it will be the Cardinals' first appearance in the playoffs since 2015, when they defeated the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round but were blown out by the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship Game. As for the Rams, they are in the playoffs for the FOURTH time in Sean McVay's five seasons as head coach. This time around the Rams' QB is Matthew Stafford, who after 12 seasons with Detroit (where he put up monster numbers), will take the field looking to earn his first-ever playoff game (0-3 with the Lions!).

Murray completed 68.2% for 3,787 yards with 24 TDs and 10 INTs. He missed three games during the regular season and hasn't been quite the same in his return, with just five TD passes in five games, without a rushing TD (had five in his first nine games!). He has really missed WR Hopkins (42 catches / 8 TDs), who last played on Dec 13 (still not available). Kirk (77 catches / 5 TDs) has had an excellent season and veteran AJ Green (54 catches / 15.7 TYPC / 3 TDs) has shown flashes of his earlier brilliance, but only at times. Rookie WR Moore has added a 'quiet' 54 catches (just 8.1 YPC) and TE Ertz (acquired from the Eagles in a trade during the season), has added 56 catches in his 11 games with the Cards. RB Conner has been hurt down the stretch but returned in Week 18 (52 yards and a TD), giving him 752 yards rushing on the season (just 3.7 YPC) but an impressive 15 TDs. His RB partner is Edmonds, who has run for 592 yards on 5.1 YPC. The Arizona defense has played well, holding opponents to 21.5 PPG (12th).

Stafford has put up terrific numbers in his Detroit career but his move to LA was seen as a "get out of jail" opportunity. Stafford has put up excellent numbers again, completing 67.2% for 4,886 yards with 41 TDs and 17 INTs. WR Cooper Kupp set a Rams-record 1,947 receiving yards, while he also pulled off the WR 'triple crown,' leading the NFL in receptions (145), TDs (16) and receiving yards. Veteran WR Woods (45 catches / 4 TDs) was lost during the regular season but Jefferson (a third-year pro) has 50 catches on 16.0 YPC with 5 TDs. TE Higbee has 61 catches with 5 TDs. RB Sony Michel has run for 845 yards (4.1 YPC / 4 TDs), averaging 99.4 YPG during the team's five-game winning streak and Cam Akers may be "ready to go!" The LA defense has not been as good as it's been in previous seasons but does check in allowing 21.9 PPG (1th). Not bad.

Here's the rub. The Cardinals are 8-1 on the road and while the Cardinals may have been the best team in the NFL up until late October. They’ve gone downhill losing (1-4 finish) and Kyler Murray hasn’t regained his early season dominance. He greatly misses the dynamic Hopkins, out for the season with a knee injury plus Murray’s running skills have diminished. Remember, this is Murray's first playoff start and he's had just two multiple touchdown games since Week 7. Stafford's 0-3 in the playoffs all time, but that was THEN and this is NOW. Stafford has thrown five TDs to one INT in two games against the Cardinals this year. It's "now or never" for the veteran. I'm laying the points and I'm also expecting an "A-effort" by Aaron Donald and the LA defense.

Good luck...Larry