Larry Ness - Betting Expert

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the OKC Thunder at 9:35 ET.

Both the Utah Jazz and the OKC Thunder return from the All Star break with both teams looking to make amends. The Jazz lost 115-108 at Golden St in their last game before the break, while the Thunder lost 131-122 at New Orleans in their last time on the court. The 32-25 Jazz currently own the West's 6th-seed but are only 2 1/2 games clear of the playoff 'cut line.' As for the Thunder, they have recovered from an 0-4 start to the season to go 37-16. The team's 37-20 record gives them the West's 3rd-best record and seem to be a huge favorite to enter the postseason with one of the West's top-four records (good enough for the homecourt edge in the first round).

The Jazz return to the court after a 10-day break. They have won 13 of their last 16 games and as noted above, come out of the break sixth in the Western Conference. However, the good news is that they have one of the NBA's easiest schedules down the stretch, playing just eight of their final 25 games against teams that are above .500. Center Rudy Gobert didn't hide his disappointment at not making the NBA All-Star Game for the first time despite, averaging 15.2 points and 12.9 rebounds while leading the league in field-goal percentage (65.4). "Just recharge, completely -- mentally, physically," Gobert said. "For me, I was able to get a little bit of sun and feel a lot better when I get back. The next two months, I feel like, will be a lot better." He's surrounded by a backcourt led by Mitchell (22.4-3.9-4.0) and PG Rubio (13.0 & 6.1 APG). Up front, it's SF Ingles (11.7-3.8-4.9) and PF Favors (11.0 & 7.1). SF Crowder comes off the bench to average 11.8 & 4.7, while SG Korver adds 9.5 PPG on 39.8% shooting from three-point range. Defensively, the Jazz allow 105.9 PPG to rank 4t-best in the league. 

OKC was 11-1 SU (10-2 ATS) prior to the team's loss at New Orleans just before the break. PG Russell Westbrook (21.7-11.2-11.2) takes to the court looking to extend his record of 11 straight triple-doubles, a stretch in which he is averaging 21.1-13.3-13.5 (he owns 24 triple-doubles on the season).Paul George (28.7-8.0-4.10 is having an outstanding season and that duo gets significant help from four more players. Backup PG Schroder 915.7 & 4.1 APG) is the team's third-leading score with starters like center Adams (14.7 & 9.5), PF Grant (13.1 & 5.1) and SG Ferguson (6.8) completing the group.  More help is on the way with recently signed forward Markieff Morris expected to make his team debut after missing the last eight weeks due to a neck injury. Morris averaged 11.5 points and 5.1 rebounds in 34 games for the Washington Wizards before the injury and said he is ready to play a role in helping Oklahoma City make a deep playoff run.

I noted above that the Jazz have a VERY favorable schedule down the stretch. However, in stark contrast, the Thunder have one of the league's most challenging schedules moving forward. OKC plays 17 of its remaining 25 games against teams above .500 including each of the first five out of the break. That said, the Thunder are 2-0 against the Jazz this season and have won the past five regular-season matchups. What's more, the Thunder have won 15 straight regular-season home games against Jazz with Utah's last win in Oklahoma City being a 120-99 rout on Oct. 31, 2010. Lay the short price!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Cha Hornets at 7:05 ET.

Charlotte hosted the All-Star festivities this past weekend during but the Hornets now return to the court in hopes of nailing down the franchise's first playoff appearance since the 2015-16 season. The 27-30 Hornets are currently in seventh place in the East coming out of the break and first up is the 24-34 Washington Wizards, one of the team's chasing them. The Hornets went 1-3 on a four-game road trip heading into the break and entered the long layoff with a sour taste after getting crushed 127-89 at Orlando on Feb 14. As for the Wizards, they are trying to turn their fortunes around as well, after dropping SEVEN of 10 heading into the break, capped by losses at Detroit and Toronto.

Washington's pre-deadline deals sent away starters Markieff Morris and Otto Porter Jr, while bringing back forwards Wesley Johnson, Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis. It's not clear whether the Wizards are rebuilding or looking to fight for a playoff spot. That said, SG Bradley Beal isn't conflicted. "I'm locked in; I'm beyond locked in," Beal told reporters after the All-Star Game. "Hopefully my teammates will be the same way because we got a lot of games that we need. These games are imperative and important that we get them. I'm going to make sure that everybody's locked in. I feel good. My body feels good. We're going to hit the ground running." Beal is averaging 25.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.4 assists, while shooting 47.2 percent from the floor.SF Ariza has played well since joining the team from Phoenix awhile back, averaging 15.4-5.6-4.3 plus Portis (19.0 & 7.3) and Parker (12.2-7.5-5.3) have both contributed in their four games since coming from the Bulls. However, what should we make of Parker, who sandwiched a pair of 20-plus outings around a scoreless effort in his last three games.

All-Star PG Kemba Walker (24.9-4.4-5.6) has carried a heavy load for Charlotte, as only SG Lamb (15.2 & 5.6) is a consistent scoring threat. However, the Hornets do have a deep roster, as EIGHT players chip in between 6.5 and 10.3 PPG. Charlotte will play seven of its next eight games at home, as it tries to hold off the likes of Detroit, Miami, Orlando and the Wizard. Western Conference powers Golden State and Houston will be part of this current homestand, so a win here vs Washington is a 'must!'

This is the first of three games between Charlotte and Washington in a three-week span. They play again in Charlotte on March 8 and wrap up the four-game season series at Washington on March 15. Washington took the first meeting 130-126 at home back on Dec 29, despite 47 points from Walker. As noted, Charlotte almost has to consider this game a 'must win.' Charlotte is only 8-21 on the road but is 19-9 at home. The Wizards are 7-23 SU on the road (9-21 ATS), where they are allowing a whopping 119.7 PPG.   Throw in that the Hornets have covered SEVEN of their last 10 at the Spectrum Center and are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 hosting Washington and the play HAS to be Charlotte. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Revenge Rout is on Illinois-Chicago at 9:00 ET.

The Green Bay Phoenix will travel to UIC Pavilion to take on the UIC Flames this Friday night in Horizon League play. Both teams are 14-13 overall on the season, including 8-6 in league play. Green Bay fell behind by a 44-33 margin early in the 2nd half against Detroit in its last game but was outstanding on both ends of the court down the stretch to come away with an 82-73 win. As for UIC, the Flames trailed by a 43-38 margin at halftime vs Youngstown State but after taking the lead midway through the 2nd half, were done in by an 11-0 Penguins run in an 81-73 loss (the defeat snapped a four-game Flames' winning streak).

The Phoenix are a high-scoring team, averaging 82.7 PPG (18th). PG Cohen leads the team in scoring (16.6), rebounding (6.4) and assists (4.7), while fellow guard McCloud comes off the bench to average 13.9 PPG. Three more guards combine to chip in about 22.5 PPG. The lone frontcourt player of note is the 6-6 Hemphill (11.5 & 5.4). Green Bay's problem is a defense allowing 81.3 PPG (345th).

The Flames are a guard-oriented team as well with SG Marcus Ottey (15.9), PG Tarkus Ferguson (15.1-6.7-5.1) and fellow Godwin Boahen (14.5-3.3-2.9) leading the way. A trio of forwards chip in about 23 points and 13 rebounds per game. The Flames average 75.0 PPG and allow the exact same amount (hence a 14-13 record).

This is a key battle for 3rd-place in the Horizon League standings (Northern Ky and Wright St are each 11-4) and I favor the home team in "revenge mode." UIC lost 90-85 in Green Bat back on Jan 19, the most points the Flames have allowed in any game this season (excluding OT). Now, here at home (where the team is 11-3), the Flames can serve up some "payback" vs a Green Bay team that's just 3-11 SU on the road, allowing a whopping 87.8 PPG!

Good luck...Larry

My 1* Free Play is on Indiana (9:00 EST).

Indiana comes in desperate for a victory. The Hoosiers are in the 12th spot in the 14-team Big Ten conference right now. Indiana though looked competitive in its 48-46 home loss to No. 15 Purdue last time out. Romeo Langford was a bright spot in a losing cause with 14 points and nine boards. 

Note though that while the Hoosiers are only 2-5 vs. ranked opponents this year, their last such victory was a 79-75 OT upset victory at No. 9 MSU back on February 2nd. 

I think it’s also relevant to point out that Indiana has won eight of the last ten in this series and three of its last four at Iowa City.

Iowa is three games back of Michigan and Purdue, so a first round bye in the conference tournament is essentially out of the question now anyways for the home side. 

The Hawkeyes won two games in a row with last second shots, but the tables were turned in last Tuesday’s 66-65 setback to No. 24 Maryland. Jordan Bohannon had 14 points in a losing cause.

I’ll point out that Indiana is 2-0 ATS in its last two after scoring 65 points or less in three straight games, while Iowa is a poor 6-10 ATS at home this season and just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 off a home loss vs. a conference rival (including 0-2 ATS this year.)

While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these two hungry teams has its hands on the ball last.

Good luck…Larry