Larry Ness - Betting Expert

My 10* IL Game of the Month is on the StL Cards at 7:15 ET.

The Oakland A's won 7-3 Tuesday night in St Louis. It gives them 13 wins in their last 17 road games, after opening the 2019 season just 5-15 away from home. Oakland is still EIGHT games back of Houston in the AL West but the 42-38 A's are only 1 1/2 games behind the three teams that are in a virtual tie for the AL's second wild card spot. Three Oakland players homered and Khris Davis added a two-run double as a pinch hitter. The A's had 10 hits, as did the Cards, but St Louis went 2-for-12 with runners in scoring position. Despite the loss, the 40-38 Cards are a modest 2 1/2 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central and only a half-game out of the NL's second wild card spot (currently held by the Phillies and Rockies).

This two-game IL series concludes tonight with Daniel Mengden taking on Adam Wainwright (5-6, 4.50. Mengden gets the start because Frankie Montas (9-2, 2.70 ERA / 11-4 in team starts) was suspended 80 games for testing positive for PEDs. Mengden has made five appearances (three starts) in 2019. His most recent big league outing was back on June 5, when he allowed six runs on six hits in 2.1 innings of relief against the Los Angeles Angels. He was optioned to Triple-A Las Vegas on June 6 and has posted a 6.10 ERA in two Triple-A games.

Wainwright will become the FIFTH player to make 300 starts with St.Louis and the first since Bob Forsch hit the mark in 1983. He went 11-3 back in 2008 but then won 19 or 20 games in FOUR of his next five seasons (missed all of 2011). He's never quite regained his form from that stretch but returned from the injured list last Thursday and received a no-decision after giving up three runs in 5.1 innings against Miami (Cards lost 7-6 in 11 innings). The vet has been awful on the road (6.56 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in seven starts) but here in St Louis, has been VERY good. Wainwright has allowed three ERs or less in all SEVEN of his home starts, posting a 2.86 ERA at Busch Stadium.

Yes, Oakland's on a roll away from home but Mengden is getting the spot start ONLY because of the Montas suspension. He's proven pretty conclusively that he's "not ready from primetime." Meanwhile, Wainwright CAN be trusted at home and I'm backing the vet.

Good luck...Larry .

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET.

The first-place Minnesota Twins (AL Central) host the wild card-leading Tampa Bay Rays (two-game lead on the No. 2 wild card teams) in the middle contest of their three-game series. Minnesota owns an 8 1/2-game lead over Cleveland in the AL Central, after a 9-4 victory in Tuesday's series opener. Minnesota owns MLB's highest scoring team (5.76 RPG) plus also leads all MLB teams in BA (.273), OPS (.843) and HRs (149). The Rays own MLB's second-lowest team ERA (3.32) and did own MLB's best road (at 23-10) prior to the team's current road trip. However, The Rays have stumbled to a 2-6 record on a 10-game road trip vs the NY Yankees, Oakland and now, Minnesota.

Tonight's pitching matchup is gem, as Charlie Morton (8-1, 2.31 will square off against ERA) vs Jake Odorizzi (10-3, 2.58 ERA). Morton spent his first nine years in the National League and sported a 46-71 record. However, he arrived in Tampa Bay this spring (as a free agent), after registering his best two seasons in the majors with Houston, going 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA in 55 starts. He won a World Series title with the Houston Astros in 2017 and made his first All-Star team in 2018. The Rays won 10 of Morton's first 14 starts, during which he went 8-0 with a 2.10 ERA. However, Tampa Bay has lost each of his last two starts, a stretch in which Morton has allowed five ERs five runs over 12.1 innings. Prior to his last two starts, Morton had won FOUR straight starts, posting a 1.00 ERA and a .151 BAA.

Odorizzi is a former Tampa Bay Ray and is tied for the AL lead in wins with Justin Verlander and Lucas Giolito. Odorizzi was 10-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his previous 11 starts before losing 4-1 at Kansas City on Thursday. He also faced the Royals in his previous start (6 IP / 4 ERs) but received enough run support in a 5-4 victory on June 15. The Twins lost Odorizzi's first three starts of 2019 but had won all 11 of Odorizzi's starts from April 17 through June 15, before losing last Thursday

Morton vs Odorrizi is a 'push' but while the Rays are just 4-10 in their last 14 contest, while averaging only 3.79 RPG (note; Tampa Bay has trailed in 13 of them!). Meanwhile, MLB's best offensive team is 39-20 (.661) against right-handers in 2019, including 24-12 (.667) in night games. How can this game be pick'em?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (AL) is on the Tex Rangers at 7:10 ET.

Texas made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 (lost both) to begin a seven-year stretch in which the Rangers made the playoffs in FIVE of seven seasons. However, Texas would go 78-84 in 2017 and then 67-95 in 2018. That said, the 43-36 Rangers find themselves squarely in the thick of the American League playoff race thanks to their strong play since mid-May. Texas currently is in a three-way tie for the second AL wild card position (with Cleveland and Boston), two games back of the No. 1 wild card (Tampa Bay). The Rangers took the opener of their three-game series at Detroit with the Tigers on Tuesday, winning 5-3. Texas improved to 10-6 on the road since the middle of May, after beginning 5-15 away from home. Jesse Chavez and three relievers held the Tigers to just six hits last night, sending 26-48 Detroit to its FIFTH straight loss.Detroit sits 23 games back in the AL Central and 14 1/2 games back of the second-place wild card team.

Two lefties square off tonight, Mike Minor (7-4, 2.52 ERA) of Texas and Matthew Boyd (5-5, 3.61 ERA) of Detroit. Minor is a former first-round pick who made 65 relief appearances for KC in 2017 but the Rangers put him back in the starting rotation in 2018. He made 28 starts last year, going 12-8 with a 4.18 ERA. Here in 2019, he's been the team's best starter. His outstanding first half continued with eight solid innings in a win over Cleveland this past Thursday, which left him 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in four June starts (Rangers are 4-0). Minor allowed SIX runs in his 2019 opener but has since allowed three ERs or less in 14 of his last 15 starts (current streak is 11 in a row, allowing three ERs runs or less).

Boyd's season is headed in the opposite direction of Minor's. Boyd opened by allowing three ERs or less in 13 of his first 14 starts but enters this contest winless in four June starts. He gave up FIVE runs over six innings at Cleveland on Friday in a 7-6 loss, while serving up a career high-tying three HRs. He has allowed six HRs over his last three starts, going 0-1 (team is 0-4) in June with an ERA of 6.14.

Minor is 0-2 with a 7.24 in his only two career starts vs the Tigers but that's balanced by the fact that Boyd is 1-5 with a 6.54 ERA in six career starts vs the Rangers. What's more, while the Rangers are 26-14 overall since May 15 and are unbeaten in their last eight series (5-0-3), the Tigers are 8-28 since May 13 (note: Detroit was just two games under .500 at 18-20 in games played through May 12). Detroit has lost FIVE straight at home, having gone 2-17 (that's an 89% "go-against") at Comerica" since May 13. Repeating, the Rangers have won Minor's last FOUR starts (1.93 ERA) while the Tigers have lost Boyd's last four (6.14 ERA). It's a "MISMATCH" all-around!

Good luck...Larry