PAGE_HEADER

20* Ohio State/Notre Dame CFP Championship No-Brainer on Ohio State -9

Note: If you receive this play before NFL Wild Card weekend, I also recommend teasers with Ohio State -2.5 or better paired with the Bills -2.5 or better and the Rams +8.5 or better.  You may need to do a 7-point teaser.  Ohio State/Eagles ML parlay is also a good way to play it.

If you receive this play after NFL Wild Card Weekend, a 6-point teaser with Ohio State -2.5 or better paired with Chiefs -2.5 or better is another great way to play it.

If you're buying this play after the Divisional Round, then a 6-point teaser with Ohio State -2.5 or better pair with Bills +7.5 or better against the Chiefs is another good way to play it.

Ryan Day, Chip Kelly and the Ohio State Buckeyes learned from their loss to Michigan in the regular season finale.  They decided to open it up and let Will Howard cook in the passing game in the 12-team playoff, and it has worked wonders with all of their playmakers on the outside.

The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee 42-17 and jumped on the Vols early with a 21-0 lead after the first quarter.  They threw for 317 yards for the game and actually took their foot off the gas late with the game already in hand, or it could have been worse.

The same thing happened against Oregon in the quarterfinals as the Buckeyes blitzed the Ducks jumping out to a 34-8 lead at halftime.  Will Howard threw three touchdown passes of 40-plus yards in the first half and Henderson popped a 66-yard run after.  They took their foot off the gas in the 2H or it would have been worse than a 41-21 final.  This just goes to show how potent Ohio State could be for four quarters if they actually have their foot on the gas for all four.

Against a very strong Texas defense, the Buckeyes had to work a little harder in their 28-14 win.  They only managed 370 total yards but held Texas to only a pair of scores.  Texas has one of the best defensive lines in the country, something they won't have to worry about against Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is very small along the front four and will have to bring extra guys up in the box to try and stop the run.  The Fighting Irish lost DL Rylie Mills (37 tackles, 7.5 sacks) in the playoffs and he is out for the season.  LT Boubacar Traore (3 sacks) has been out since October.  DL's Onye and Botelho are also out hurting their depth along the D-Line.  CB Benjamin Morrison has been out since Week 7.

The Fighting Irish also have significant injuries along their offensive line.  They have been without starting C Ashton Craig since September 14th.  They just lost freshman LT Anthonie Knapp in their win over Penn State last week.  G Rocco Spindler will be available to play after leaving the Penn State game with an ankle injury. WR Beaux Collins (37 receptions, 458 yards, 3 TD) is questionable after playing just seven snaps against Penn State before leaving with a calf injury.

Ohio State is the better, much healthier team in this one.  The Buckeyes have by far the better offense and it's not even close.  But they also have the better defense.  The Buckeyes rank 1st in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game, 1st in total defense at 251.1 yards per game and 1st at 4.1 yards per play.

Notre Dame is handicapped on offense.  The Fighting Irish rely heavily on running the football to move the ball and score points because Riley Leonard just isn't a very good passer.  Well, running lanes will be non-existent against Ohio State.  The Buckeyes rank 5th in the country allowing 89.9 rushing yards per game and 2nd allowing 2.7 yards per carry.  Their ability to stop the run will be the difference in this game because Leonard isn't going to beat them with his arm.  Bet Ohio State in the National Championship Game.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Commanders/Lions OVER 55

These are two of the best offensive teams in the NFL up against two of the worst defenses in the league.  The books haven't set this total high enough even though it's the highest total of the playoffs.

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (33.2 PPG), 2nd in total offense (409.5 YPG) and 4th in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  The only important player on offense they are missing heading into the playoffs is RG Kevin Zeitler, but they have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and plenty of depth.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 12 defenders on IR or ruled out.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those four are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts down the stretch going 4-1 OVER in their final five games.  They accomplished it in Week 14 with a 34-31 win over Green Bay, but they couldn't in Week 15 with a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

In Week 16, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

In Week 17, the Lions beat the 49ers 40-34 for 74 combined points.  The 49ers even left some points on the board missing two field goals and a XP.  The only thing that stopped them was two bad INT's by Brock Purdy.  This game had 10 touchdowns and zero punts! That's the first time since 1937 that has happened in a game, and it just goes to show just how much of an OVER team the Lions are.

Week 18 resulted in a fluky 31-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings just couldn't punch it in in the red zone or they easily could have made that a game.  Sam Darnold had one of the worst games of his career consistently overthrowing receivers.  He also missed some wide open receivers.  Darnold had an equally terrible games against the Rams as he just couldn't handle the pressure of these must-win games.

Washington is going to be able to match Detroit score for score.  The Commanders rank 5th in scoring at 28.2 points per game, 7th in total offense at 368.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Lions are blitzing a ton to try and make up for all their injuries on defense.  It worked against the Vikings, but it's not going to work against the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels ranks 3rd in the NFL in EPA per dropback against the blitz.  He has rushed for 891 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6 yards per carry this season.  He scrambled 13% of the time against the blitz, which was more than any other QB in the NFL, and he accumulated more EPA than any other QB on his scrambles against the Blitz.

Aaron Glenn keeps blitzing heavy with this patchwork defense.  He is going to pay this week against Daniels.  The Lions have allowed a league-high 445 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.  The Lions play the 2nd-highest rate of man coverage, which is going to open things up for Daniels.  In recent seasons, Justin Fields rushed for 147, 132, 104 and 58 yards against Detroit.  Hurts rushed for 90 and Allen 78.  Stopping dual-threat QB's is something Glenn has not been able to figure out.

There's not a lot to like about this Washington defense, either.  The Commanders rank 18th in scoring at 22.8 points per game and 18th at 5.7 yards per play.  They allow 4.7 yards per carry on the ground which ranks 28th.  They play the 6th-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL this season, and Jared Goff ranks 1st in the NFL in EPA per play against man coverage.  The last team the Lions faced that played this much man covers was the Jaguars, who they hung 52 points on in Week 11.

Detroit and Washington are both aggressive on 4th downs and both have been wildly successful this season.  So these teams won't be settling for FG's they will be going for touchdowns.  The aggression will lead to more points offensively, but also possibly create some short fields for their opponents if they fail as well.

The Lions have scored at least 31 points in five consecutive games and they will get to at least 31 in this one.  I don't think it's much to ask the Commanders to get 24-plus, and I'm expecting more out of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Commanders/Lions NFC No-Brainer on Washington +10

The Washington Commanders are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games overall.  All four losses came by 8 points or less, including road losses to the Eagles by 8 and the Ravens by 7, and I would argue both the Ravens and Eagles are better than the Lions.  This makes for a 17-0 system backing the Commanders pertaining to this 10-point spread.

The reason I say the Ravens and Eagles are better is because they actually play defense.  The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and the Commanders are never going to be out of this game because of that fact.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 12 defenders on IR or ruled out.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those four are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.  The Lions rank 27th in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play this season.

Washington is going to be able to match Detroit score for score.  The Commanders rank 5th in scoring at 28.2 points per game, 7th in total offense at 368.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Lions are blitzing a ton to try and make up for all their injuries on defense.  It worked against the Vikings, but it's not going to work against the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels ranks 3rd in the NFL in EPA per dropback against the blitz.  He has rushed for 891 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6 yards per carry this season.  He scrambled 13% of the time against the blitz, which was more than any other QB in the NFL, and he accumulated more EPA than any other QB on his scrambles against the Blitz.

Aaron Glenn keeps blitzing heavy with this patchwork defense.  He is going to pay this week against Daniels.  The Lions have allowed a league-high 445 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.  The Lions play the 2nd-highest rate of man coverage, which is going to open things up for Daniels.  In recent seasons, Justin Fields rushed for 147, 132, 104 and 58 yards against Detroit.  Hurts rushed for 90 and Allen 78.  Stopping dual-threat QB's is something Glenn has not been able to figure out.  Washington remains underrated as double-digit underdogs this week.  Bet the Commanders Saturday.

20* Texans/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City -7.5

Note: I strongly recommend a 6-point teaser on the Chiefs -1.5/Ohio State -2 at the current lines as of Tuesday, January 14th.  Just make sure to get them both down to -2.5 or better. I also don't mind teasing the Chiefs -2.5 or better with the Eagles down to PK for smaller, or the Bills up to +7.5 or better for even smaller.

The Kansas City Chiefs haven't played meaningful football in 24 days by the time this game kicks off Saturday.  They needed the rest to get healthy after a grueling season that saw them go 15-1 in games started and finished by Patrick Mahomes.  You can toss out their Week 18 loss to the Broncos with all backups.

The Chiefs showed some life on offense down the stretch once they got healthy.  This version of the Chiefs offense that is entering the playoffs is much more potent than the one we saw all regular season.  Kansas City now has DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy, Isaiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce all healthy and playing together for the first time all season.

The Chiefs put up 27 points, 375 total yards and 25 first downs in a 27-19 win over the Texans at home in Week 16.  They followed it up with 29 points and 389 total yards against the Steelers in Week 17.  The Texans and Steelers grade out as two of the best defenses in the NFL.

Kansas City ranks 4th in scoring defense this season allowing 19.2 points per game.  The Chiefs get both DT Chris Jones and CB Jaylen Watson back from injury this week.  Jones was lost to injury against the Texans, and Watson hasn't played since October 20th.  The Chiefs are back to full strength defensively, and this is arguably the best defense in the NFL when that's the case.

The key weakness the Texans have is on offense.  They were already without Stephon Diggs, and now they are without Tank Dell as well.  They lost Dell after scoring a TD to cut the deficit to 17-16 in the 3rd quarter against the Chiefs int hat first meeting.  They were outscored 10-3 the rest of the way without him and couldn't get anything going on offense.

While the Texans had a good offensive showing last week at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, that was in a controlled environment in a dome.  Now this dome team has to go outdoors with temps in the teens in Kansas City on Saturday and some steady winds.  They have gone 0-3 SU in their three road games in colder weather this season losing to the Packers, the Jets and the Chiefs.  They averaged just 18.0 points per game in those three losses.

I also think the Texans are getting too much credit for that win over the Chargers last week.  Keep in mind the Chargers were up 6-0 and looking to add to it in the final two minutes of the 1st half.  But CJ Stroud picked up a fumble and converted a crazy 3rd and long and it changed the entire game.  The Texans outscored the Chargers 10-0 in the final two minutes to take a 10-6 lead into halftime.  The Chargers never recovered, and Justin Herbert played one of the worst games of his career.  Herbert threw 4 interceptions in that game after throwing a total of 3 interceptions all regular season.  It was very fluky.

Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 in his career in the Divisional Round, completing 70% of his passes with a 16-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The Chiefs have averaged 6.4 yards per play in the playoffs with Mahomes at the helm.  In the playoffs, 18 straight favorites of -7 or more have won their games straight up.  I think the Chiefs still cover -7.5 in this game, but my favorite way to play it is with a 6-point teaser paired with Ohio State on Monday.  Bet the Chiefs Saturday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +2.5

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser with the Rams +8.5/Bills -2.5. I have since added 6-point teasers with the Rams +8.5 paired with Ohio State -2.5 or better and Chiefs -2.5 or better.

The Los Angeles Rams rested starters in Week 18 and will be fresh as a result.  They returned from their bye early in the season and have been almost fully healthy since.  They have gone 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in their 11 games since the bye week excluding Week 18 when they rested starters.  Now they essentially are coming off a bye week and carrying that momentum into the NFC Wild Card Round.  

The Rams will be playing for the city of Los Angeles and the fires, so they will be extra inspired.  And I don't think the venue change to Arizona makes much of a difference.  The Rams don't have much home-field advantage anyway, and they have been great on the road this season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  They are also used to playing in Arizona, and they have decided to use the visiting locker room so they are familiar and comfortable.

Matthew Stafford has an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last seven games and I trust him a lot more than Sam Darnold in this one.  He is great at beating the blitz, and the Vikings blitz as much as anyone in the NFL.  Sean McVay is smart enough to run short crossing routes to beat the blitz.  Puka Nacua will have a huge game.

The Vikings were 'all in' in Week 18 playing for the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.  Darnold had his worst game of the season consistently overthrowing receivers.  The Vikings lost 31-9 at Detroit.  They squandered several scoring opportunities due to Darnold's ineptitude.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank playing all out for a 13th consecutive week since having an early bye in Week 6.

That was basically the first playoff game that Darnold has ever played in with pressure at the highest level.  And now this will officially be Darnold's first playoff game.  NFL teams with a QB making their postseason debut against a team with a QB that has played a playoff game previously are 19-37-1 ATS since 2002.

We have already seen this matchup once with the Rams beating the Vikings 30-20 at home as 3-point underdogs on October 24th.  This was a dominant effort for Los Angeles with 386 total yards compared to just 276 for Minnesota, so the Rams outgained the Vikings by 110 yards.  It will be more of the same in the rematch here.

Stafford went 25-of-34 for 279 yards and 4 TD with one INT in the win.  Nacua had 7 receptions for 106 yards as well.  Brian Flores isn't going to change what he does now and stop blitzing.  I also think Darnold will be under duress for four quarters playing behind one of the most suspect offensive lines in the league.  Head coach O'Connell can't help himself and keeps running deep routes for his receivers giving Darnold no outlets, and even when he has them he doesn't see them half the time.  

Los Angeles has allowed 14 points or fewer in four of its last five games not including Week 18.  The Rams have a great pass rush and the Vikings are weak at the tackle position in terms of pass blocking.  They haven't really recovered since losing LT Darrisaw as his replacement in LT Robinson is one of the worst pass blockers in the league.  

Look for DT Fiske (8.5 sacks, 10 TF), LB Young (7.5 sacks, 12 TFL) and LB Verse (4.5 sacks, 11 TFL) to get after Darnold consistently and make life tough on him like the Lions did last week.  And that's a Lions defense that is one of the worst in the NFL in their current state.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Rams Monday.

20* Packers/Eagles NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Philadelphia -4

The Philadelphia Eagles are the most complete team in the NFC.  They are as healthy as they could possibly be after resting their starters in Week 18.  Jalen Hurts returns this week, he has his full compliment of weapons, and amazingly the Eagles have all 22 starters from Week 1 healthy and on the field heading into the playoffs.

Healthy is a big issue for the Green Bay Packers.  They played their starters in the final two weeks of the season despite both games being pretty much meaningless.  Jordan Love got knocked out of their Week 18 game against the Bears, and they lost his favorite deep target in Christian Watson to a season-ending injury in that game to boot.

The Packers are limping into the postseason.  They managed just 271 total yards in a loss to the Vikings and were upset 24-22 by the Bears in Week 18 as 10-point favorites.  Love will try to play through a right elbow injury.  Watson and his 290 receptions for 620 yards is out.  Four starters are questionable on defense in LB Walker, LB Cooper, SS Williams and NB Bullard.  They are without top CB Jaire Alexander to a season-ending injury.

The Eagles have quietly gone 12-1 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The only game they lost Hurts got injured early against the Commanders in a 36-33 defeat on the road.  Their defense is elite allowing 20 points or fewer in 11 of their last 13 games during this stretch.  And their offense has taken off since both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith returned to the lineup after a Week 5 bye.  They have scored at least 24 points in 10 of their last 12 games and one game they didn't was in Week 18 when they rested their starters and started a 3rd-string QB.

Love's yards per pass attempt has dipped nearly 2.0 yards when he has been without Watson.  He throws the 2nd-most deep balls in the NFL, but most of that is due to having Watson on the field.  I think the Eagles can bottle up this Green Bay offense, which just hasn't been clicking down the stretch especially without Watson.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

20* Broncos/Bills AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on OVER 46.5

Josh Allen came out and said the Buffalo Bills were holding things back offensively since being locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC.  I think they will open it up against Denver and hang a big number here in leading the way to us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.

The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense averaging 30.9 points per game.  Amazingly, Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in 10 of its 11 games overall in games that Allen has started and finished.  I fully expect the Bills to get 30-plus in this one, and if they do we are going to only need 17-plus from Denver, which I think we get.

The Broncos have one of the most underrated offenses in the NFL.  They have scored 24 or more points in seven consecutive games while averaging a whopping 32.6 points per game in those seven games.  Head coach Sean Payton is an offensive genius and is getting everything he can out of Bo Nix.  Payton hasn't shown all his cards yet and is saving them for the playoffs just like the Bills are.

The Broncos have good defensive numbers overall, but that is largely due to playing an easy schedule of opposing offenses.  When they have stepped up in class they have been shredded.  The Ravens put up 41 points on them, the Browns and Jameis Winston put up 32 points and 552 total yards on them, the Chargers put up 34 points and the Bengals put up 30 points on them.

The Bills have had a similar fate defensively.  Since Week 9, the Bills are 30th in success rate defensively.  They allowed 27 points to Miami, 44 to the Rams and 42 to the Lions during this stretch.  The Bills are very soft up the middle defensively, and the Broncos are No. 1 in the league in run block win rate.  Nix should get plenty of help from their running game.  

The OVER is 7-2 in Bills last nine games overall with 50 or more combined points in six of the eight games started and finished by Allen.  The OVER is 10-2 in Broncos last 12 games overall not including their Week 18 game where Kansas City rested all of its starters.  I expect the Bills to get into the 30's and the Broncos to get into the 20's.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ohio State/Texas Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Ohio State -6

Note: I also really like a 6-point teaser with Penn State +8.5/Ohio State PK for the playoff semifinals.  Make sure to check all your books to see what the best price is on a Penn State +8.5 alternate line and Ohio State ML parlay is instead of laying -120 on a 6-point teaser.  Bet whatever price is better.  The alternate line +8.5/ML parlay is currently -106 at DK and -110 at Fanduel as of this writing.

Ryan Day, Chip Kelly and the Ohio State Buckeyes learned from their loss to Michigan in the regular season finale.  They decided to open it up and let Will Howard cook in the passing game in the 12-team playoff, and it has worked wonders with all of their playmakers on the outside.

The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee 42-17 and jumped on the Vols early with a 21-0 lead after the first quarter.  They threw for 317 yards for the game and actually took their foot off the gas late with the game already in hand, or it could have been worse.

The same thing happened against Oregon last round as the Buckeyes blitzed the Ducks jumping out to a 34-8 lead at halftime.  Will Howard threw three touchdown passes of 40-plus yards in the first half and Henderson popped a 66-yard run after.  They took their foot off the gas in the 2H or it would have been worse than a 41-21 final.  This just goes to show how potent Ohio State could be for four quarters if they actually have their foot on the gas for all four.

Texas benefited from a very easy regular season schedule.  The Longhorns lost both meetings with Georgia when they had to step up in class.  And they have been fortunate to make it this far in the 12-team playoff.

Texas only led Clemson by 7 in the 4th quarter before a 77-yard run clinched a 38-24 victory.  Cade Klubnik kept coming throwing for 336 yards and 3 TD against Texas to expose their secondary, which is something I believe Howard can do as well.

Texas had no business beating Arizona State last round.  The Longhorns were actually outgained 510 to 375 by the Sun Devils, or by 135 total yards.  But ASU failed in the red zone and in the kicking game which was the difference.  They threw for 296 yards and rushed for 214 on this Texas defense despite being without their best receiver.

The Longhorns were held to 53 rushing yards on 30 carries by Arizona State.  And that is going to be a problem for them against this Ohio State defense.  The Buckeyes have the best defense in the country ranking 1st in scoring defense at 12.1 points per game, 1st in total defense at 244.6 yards per game and 1st at 4.0 yards per play.  They allow just 92.2 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry.  

Texas isn't going to have any success on the ground, and Quinn Ewers is one of the most overrated QB's in the country in my opinion.  He was exposed twice against Georgia this season, and he'll be exposed against Ohio State again here.  Ohio State's balance on offense will also be a big difference in this contest with Howard having another big game through the air.  The Buckeyes have no weaknesses.  They roll again.  Bet Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl Friday.

20* Notre Dame/Penn State Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Penn State +2.5

Note: I also really like a 6-point teaser with Penn State +8.5/Ohio State PK for the playoff semifinals.  Make sure to check all your books to see what the best price is on a Penn State +8.5 alternate line and Ohio State ML parlay is instead of laying -120 on a 6-point teaser.  Bet whatever price is better.  The alternate line +8.5/ML parlay is currently -106 at DK and -110 at Fanduel as of this writing.

The Penn State Nittany Lions have a big rest and preparation advantage over Notre Dame.  The Nittany Lions played on Tuesday last week while the Fighting Irish had their game pushed back a day due to the terrorist situation in New Orleans.  They played on Thursday, so the Nittany Lions have a two-day rest advantage.

In a game that is close to a toss up, I'll take any advantage I can get.  I like the fact that Penn State coaches and players got to watch Notre Dame play on Thursday night.  They would have been paying as close attention as any game they have watched other than their own all season.

James Franklin is quickly proving he can win big games with two impressive wins in the 12-team playoff.  The Nittany Lions won 38-10 over SMU as 9-point home favorites and a 31-14 over Boise State as 11.5-point favorites on a neutral.  They have played the tougher schedule which ranks 33rd in the country.

Their defense continues to shine ranking 7th in scoring defense allowing 15.8 points per game, 4th in total defense at 288.8 yards per game and 7th at 4.6 yards per play.  Their offense is the best of the Franklin era ranking 10th in the country at 6.6 yards per play with tremendous balance behind first-year coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas.

Notre Dame has benefited from playing the 54th-ranked schedule in the country.  The Fighting Irish also benefited from getting to play an overrated Indiana team in the opening round and a Georgia team that was missing their starting QB.  I think the Irish are grossly overvalued after going a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

A turnover at the 2-yard line followed by a 98-yard run by Jeremiyah Love changed the complexion of that Indiana game early.  A sack fumble followed by a TD right before half on a short field changed the complexion of the Georgia game.  That was followed up by a 98-yard kickoff return TD by Notre Dame coming out of intermission which completely changed the game.

As you can see, big plays by Notre Dame were the reasons for their first two wins in the playoffs.  I don't see them getting those kinds of big plays against a well-coached, stout defense like Penn State.  The Fighting Irish only had 14 first downs and 244 total yards against Georgia.  They have a great defense, but their offense is a weakness.

QB Riley Leonard is known more for what he can do with his legs than his arm.  He threw for just 90 yards on 24 attempts against Georgia.  Star RB Love (1,076 yards, 16 TD) is clearly hobbled and rushed for only 19 yards on 6 carries against Georgia.  He won't get the benefit of extra rest considering he has just six days off in between games.  Not to mention the Fighting Irish are without their best DL Rylie Mills (7.5 sacks), who got hurt against Indiana.

I think these teams are pretty evenly-matched defensively, but the difference is the Nittany Lions have more playmakers on offense and a QB that can actually stretch the field.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers and a 1,000-yard receiver in star TE Tyler Warren.  The Nittany Lions will bottle up Leonard and Love and that will be the difference in this game.  Bet Penn State in the Orange Bowl Thursday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Vikings/Lions OVER 51

Note: I released the OVER 51 in this game prior to the Lions playing the 49ers on Monday.  I had a big play on the OVER 51.5 in that Lions/49ers game, and I anticipated a shootout that would undoubtedly make the books set this total in Vikings/Lions higher.  It played out as I expected.  It's still a 25* up to 56, and a 20* at anything higher.  But I expect this game to sail OVER the total with both teams getting 28-plus points.

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (33.3 PPG), 2nd in total offense (410.5 YPG) and 4th in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  They did just lose RB David Montgomery to injury, but not having him actually makes them more of an OVER team.  They have to throw more and backup RB Jamir Gibbs is more explosive and better at catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 14 defenders on IR alone.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts the last four weeks going 4-0 OVER.  They accomplished it with a 34-31 win over Green Bay four weeks ago, but they couldn't get three weeks ago in a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

Two weeks ago, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

Last week, the Lions beat the 49ers 40-34 for 74 combined points.  The 49ers even left some points on the board missing two field goals and a XP.  The only thing that stopped them was two bad INT's by Brock Purdy.  This game had 10 touchdowns and zero punts! That's the first time since 1937 that has happened in a game, and it just goes to show just how much of an OVER team the Lions are.

Now they take on another elite offense in the Minnesota Vikings, who rank 9th in scoring at 26.4 points per game, 7th in total offense at 352.2 yards per game and 10th at 6.0 yards per play.  The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in seven consecutive games.  They are as healthy as they have been all season on offense with unlimited weapons for Sam Darnold in Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson and Jones.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 50 or more combined points in all six, including 52 or more in five of them.  That includes a 31-29 win by the Lions in Minnesota in their first meeting and 60 combined points.  The Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of the last four meetings as Jared Goff clearly has this blitz-heavy Minnesota scheme figured out.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Vikings/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +3

The Minnesota Vikings are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  That's a big reason they are 14-2 SU & 11-4-1 ATS as one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  They quietly take a 9-game winning streak into this showdown with the Detroit Lions with the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC at stake.

The Vikings are only a couple notches down from the Lions on offense right now, but the difference in these defenses is the reason I'm on the Vikings.  The Lions have the worst defense in the entire NFL in their current state.  They have 14 defenders on IR.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

The Vikings rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.8 points per game and 12th at 5.5 yards per play.  They just held Jordan Love and Packers to 271 total yards last week.  The Lions rank 28th allowing 6.0 yards per play.  They just allowed 475 total yards to the 49ers last week.

But there were even more concerning results for this Detroit defense in recent weeks.  It started with allowing 31 points to the Packers, and then 48 points and 559 total yards to the Bills in their last home games.  They gave up 382 yards and 6.0 yards per play to the Bears two weeks ago before allowing 34 points and 7.9 yards per play to the 49ers last week.  This is a bad, bad defense right now especially against the pass.

The Lions are getting too much respect for home-field advantage.  The Vikings are the better, healthier team right now and getting 3 points with them is a great value.  The difference in this game will be the Vikings getting one or two more stops than the Lions.  Sam Darnold can match Jared Goff score for score.  Bet the Vikings Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chargers/Raiders OVER 40.5

The Las Vegas Raiders have a much better offense with Aidan O'Connell at quarterback.  He has had big games in each of his last three starts throwing for 340 yards against Kansas City, 257 against Jacksonville and 242 against New Orleans.

The Los Angeles Chargers have been a dead nuts OVER team in recent weeks.  The OVER is 6-2 in Chargers last eight games overall with 44 or more combined points in six of those eight games, and 47 or more in five of them.  They have gone to a more pass-happy offense, and their defense has taken a step back.

I put out a lot of plays Sunday night, and of the ones I put out, this is the only one that gives me a little bit of pause as of this writing on Friday.  The Chargers could elect to rest starters if the Steelers win on Saturday.  They would be locked into the 6th seed if that were the case.  But if the Steelers lose, I absolutely love this OVER because the Chargers will play all their starters trying to get the 5th seed and a matchup with the Texans in the 1st round.  But Harbaugh may play all his starters either way.

The good news is that the Chargers actually have a quality backup QB now after trading for Taylor Heineke in the preseason.  He is a gun slinger and I think he would be able to put up some points against this Raiders defense.  I know Aidan O'Connell and this Raiders offense will have success either way, especially if they are playing against a bunch of backups.

Regardless, this OVER 40.5 was a good bet because as of this writing this total is up to 41.5 and 42 everywhere.  So from a line value perspective this is going to be a great bet if the Chargers play all their starters and Herbert is out there slinging it around in perfect conditions in the dome in Las Vegas.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Miami Dolphins ML -140

The Miami Dolphins are still very much alive to make the playoffs.  They have gone 6-2 SU in their last eight games to get back to .500 on the season.  They aren't about to let up now after fighting this hard just to get in this position when it looked like a lost season sitting at 2-6.

The Dolphins need to win and have the Broncos lose to the Chiefs to get in.  While the Broncos losing to the Chiefs isn't likely, we've seen several times over the years where the Chiefs rested their starters in the final week of the season but still managed to win, or at the very least keep it close.  I like that the Dolphins are playing at the same time as the Broncos so they won't know the result before they play.

QB Snoop Huntley had his best game as a Dolphin on the road in tough conditions against a very good Cleveland defense last week.  Huntley completed 22-of-26 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 52 yards and a score.  He fed Tyreek Hill early and often as Hill finished with 9 receptions for 105 yards in the win.

Head coach Mike McDaniel said on Wednesday that Huntley is in line to start as of now, but Tua Tagovailoa got in a limited practice on Wednesday and could start.  This line won't be close to PK if Tua goes.  Plus, WR Jaylen Waddle returned to practice this week, and the Dolphins didn't have Waddle last week.

While this Miami offense gets all the headlines, it's the defense that has been one of the most underrated units in the entire NFL this season.  Miami ranks 3rd in total defense allowing just 310.6 yards per game.  They are 8th in scoring at 20.6 points per game, and they have few weaknesses as they are both 9th against the run and 9th against the pass.

I think the New York Jets are just ready for this disaster of a season to be over with. They are 4-12 on the season and have lost six of their last seven games with their lone win being a comeback victory over the lowly Jaguars. Aaron Rodgers literally quit and took himself out of the game last week when they were trailing Buffalo 40-0.  While Rodgers has been a disappointment, the problems are mostly everywhere else with the offensive line and the defense both decimated by injuries.  Rodgers has no running game and no time, and he's always trying to pay catch up with this leaky defense.

The Jets are allowing 28.7 points per game in their last seven games.  They have lost their way since losing head coach Robert Saleh and MLB CJ Mosely.  Now they could be without their next two best defenders in CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams this week.  Three starters are questionable along the offensive line, and they just lost their starting LT two weeks ago.

The Dolphins didn't have a single player make the Pro Bowl which adds to their motivation.  The Jets are 0-20 SU & 1-19 ATS in their last 20 games after facing the Bills the previous week.  I'll gladly back the better, healthier team with something to play for Sunday against the banged up, flatlining Jets who are just ready for this season to be over with.  Bet the Dolphins on the Money Line Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks +1

Note: Grab the best Money Line price on the Seahawks you can find as soon as you can if you can't get +1.  They are going to go off the favorite.  I'm expecting the Rams to rest starters.

Update: This pick is the perfect example of why having a long-term package is to your benefit because you would have gotten this pick as soon as I released it.  I released this play Sunday night and ML -120 was widely available at the time of release.  The Seahawks have gone from +1 to -6.5 as of this writing.  I stated that you should find the Seahawks at the cheapest money line price you could get if you couldn't get +1.  And you could have had the Seahawks at -3 or -150 better through Tuesday.  That's when the news that the Rams would rest their starters came out and this line ballooned to -6.5.  I anticipated the Rams would rest their starters before anyone else, and I'm glad we got a great early number.  But if you're buying this later in the week and the line is -6.5 I wouldn't recommend a 25* at that number.  I still think the Seahawks win and cover, but there are better ways to play it.  Either tease the Seahawks down with either the Falcons -2.5 or better, the Vikings up to +8.5 or better, or the Dolphins at +7.5 or better.  I am not offering this play separately for purchase because of the line move as I don't think that would be fair, and only my long-term subscribers and those of you who buy the NFL 9-pack or 5-Pack have access to it.

The Seahawks have been eliminated from the playoffs and while that is a concern in terms of their motivation, I don't think it's that big of a concern.  The Seahawks have a first-year head coach in Mike McDonald and he wants to finish strong.  Geno Smith gets an extra $2 million if the Seahawks win 10 games, and they are going for their 10th win.  Smith also gets an additional $2 million if he throws for at least 186 yards.  His teammates will be motivated to get him those bonuses.

The Rams will be resting QB Stafford, WR Nacua, WR Kupp, RB Williams, G Dotson, RT Havenstein and LT Jackson among others.  Yes, Jimmy G is a decent backup, but I think he is overrated as a backup for what he did under Kyle Shanahan in his time at San Francisco. The 49ers won games because of their defense and in spite of Jimmy G's poor play.  He is a massive downgrade from the underrated Stafford.

The Rams have been one of the worst preseason teams in the NFL in the Sean McVay era.  With him treating this line a preseason game, the Rams are one of the worst teams in the NFL in their current form with all these backups.  They lack depth because of the trades they have made in recent seasons stripping them of that important depth.  They have some of the worst backups in the NFL.

The Seahawks are remarkably healthy right now and about as healthy as they have been all season.  They have the rest advantage to boot after beating the Bears last Thursday, getting that coveted mini-bye week late in the season.  I expect one of their best performances of the year here to get that coveted 10th win not only for Geno Smith, but for head coach Mike McDonald in his first season.  Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +3.5

I grabbed the New York Giants +3.5 on Sunday night.  I anticipated the Philadelphia Eagles would rest their starters because they were locked into the No. 2 seed.  They have indeed decided to rest their starters and this line is down to +2.5 as of this writing.  The Giants should be favored, so it's still worth a bet as long as they are underdogs.

The Giants are coming off their best offensive performance of the season.  They upset the Colts 45-33 on the road in what was a must-win game for Indianapolis.  Drew Lock accounted for five touchdowns with four passing and one rushing in the win.  Brian Daboll improved to 8-2 ATS in the final three weeks of the season as a head coach.  Daboll is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the final two weeks of the season.

He will have these Giants ready to go again Sunday as he is coaching for his job.  The Eagles have already announced Barkley, Hurts, Brown and Smith will sit, and obviously several other starters will be sitting as well.  Nick Siriani is playing this smart knowing that he has no incentive to win this game, and to be honest the Eagles as a franchise would be better off letting the Giants win to assure the Giants don't get a top pick and thus strike out yet again on a franchise quarterback.

Philadelphia backup QB Kenny Pickett got hurt in their last game and will likely miss this game.  That means the Eagles would be down to third-string QB Tanner McKee, who took his first NFL snaps every last week.  It's hard to see any QB for the Eagles having much success without their top three weapons in Barkley, Brown and Smith.  This is going to be an ugly offensive performance for the Eagles, and their defense is loaded at the top but the depth will be tested in a big way here.

The Giants are only missing three starters this week in LB McFadden and two offensive linemen, but their O-Line has been banged up all season.  Lock has all of his top weapons available including Nabers, Tracy, Robinson and Slayton and they are forming a nice chemistry to finish the season.  The defense is in good shape with LB Thibodeaux returning, a fully healthy secondary and Burns expected to go.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Chicago Bears +9.5

I grabbed the Bears +9.5 Sunday night anticipating the Packers would be resting starters.  This line is +10 as of this writing because Matt LaFleur is expected to play starters.  The real question is how long will they play, and I have a hard time believing they will play all four quarters.  If they don't, the Bears should not be 10-point underdogs and this will be a great bet.

Josh Jacobs has already hinted he won't be taking a full workload, and I think that will be the case for the rest of the starters.  Best case if you bet the Packers is they play all starters for an entire half.  

Green Bay is locked into the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NFC.  Of course, they would rather have the 6th seed because then they would avoid the Eagles in the first round.  But they don't have any control over it because the Commanders have the tiebreaker over the Packers.  If the Commanders beat the Cowboys, they are going to be the 6th seed.  

Head coach Dan Quinn has already said they are going to fight like hell to win that game and get the 6th seed.  I don't expect the Cowboys to offer much resistance with how banged up their are right now and coming off a 41-7 loss to the Eagles.  If the Packers see the Commanders crushing the Cowboys at halftime, they are going to pull starters.

The Packers used a lot of energy in trying to come back from a 17-point deficit to beat the Vikings last week.  They got close losing 27-25, but they managed just 271 total yards in what was a misleading final.  Jordan Love looked disinterested for much of the game because it was nearly a meaningless game for the Packers.  This game is nearly meaningless as well, and I don't expect them to put their best foot forward as a result.

I love the spot for the Bears.  They get a mini-bye week after losing by 3 to the Seahawks on Thursday.  They will be the much fresher team, and they will be the much more motivated team.  They have lost 11 consecutive games to the Packers.  They are tired of hearing about that losing streak for the last six years, and now they get a chance to end it with the Packers not fully motivated. At the very least there's a ton of value in backing Chicago as double-digit dogs this week given the favorable circumstances.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Colts OVER 44

The Colts are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 44 or more combined points in all four games.  They combined for 49 points with the Patriots, 68 with the Titans and 78 with the Giants.

That 45-33 loss to the Giants last week was alarming. The Colts gave up 5 total touchdowns to Drew Lock of the Giants.  They also allowed 422 total yards to the Patriots during this stretch, and 30 points to the Titans and 31 points to the Broncos.  This is a very bad defense, and I imagine Gus Bradley will not longer get a defensive coordinator job in the NFL after this season.

But the Colts have a very good offense no matter who is under center.  In their last two games they put up 38 points and 454 total yards on the Titans and 33 points and 446 total yards on the Giants.  Anthony Richardson got back spasms prior to the Giants game and was a late scratch, and he is questionable to play this week.  The good news is I like the Colts no matter who is under center.

Joe Flacco got the Colts in a shootout with the Jaguars in a 37-34 loss for 71 combined points in their first meeting this season in Jacksonville.  These teams combined for 944 total yards in that game.  Flacco threw for 359 and 3 touchdowns.  Whoever is under center will be able to score at will against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 28th in scoring at 25.6 points per game, 31st in total defense at 387.5 yards per game and 31st at 6.1 yards per play.

Mac Jones is a downgrade from Trevor Lawrence, but he is playing the best football of his career in Jacksonville and he is having a lot of fun, and his guys are playing hard for him.  Jones is completing 66% of his passes this season.  He has completed at least 63% of his passes in five consecutive games while throwing for at least 220 yards in four of those five.  He is in line for likely his best game of the season against this soft Indianapolis zone defense.  The Colts rank 27th in scoring defense at 25.2 points per game and 29th in total defense at 363.8 yards per game.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 52 or more combined points in all four and an average of 60.3 combined points per game.  This total of 44 is simply too short for a game involving two of the worst defenses in the NFL in perfect scoring conditions in the dome in Indianapolis.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Panthers/Falcons OVER 47.5

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-4 OVER in all games this season.  They have the worst defense in the NFL, and their offense has been greatly improved since Bryce Young got a 2nd chance.

The Panthers rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 31.0 points per game and dead last in total defense allowing 396.2 yards per game.  But their defense is even worse now due to all the injuries.  They just allowed 48 points and 551 total yards to the Bucs last week.

The Panthers are 11 players on defense listed out.  They just lost CB Jaycee Horn, NB Smith-Wade and LB Josey Jewell to add them to the list.  LB Johnson is out and LB Clowney is questionable, as is DE Robinson.  What a mash unit this defense is.

The Falcons look revived on offense under Michael Penix Jr.  He has performed as well as can be expected in leading the Falcons to 34 points in his first start against the Giants, and 24 points last week against the Commanders.  He did everything in his power to win them that game against Washington last week, but unfortunately the Falcons lost the coin flip in OT so he never got the ball to go win it.  Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson are in line for huge games against this Carolina defense as the Falcons can basically name their number.

But what cost the Falcons last week was their defense being on the field for nearly the entire 2nd half.  They wore down and couldn't get a stop in OT.  Because they were on the field for so long, I think the Falcons are going to give up a lot of points this week. They are going to wear down again in the 2H and Bryce Young and company are going to be able to put up some points late.  Young has recently put up 36 points on Arizona and 27 on Kansas City during this resurgence.

Atlanta beat Carolina 38-20 for 58 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Kirk Cousins had a big game in leading the Falcons to 38 points and 423 yards, and they rushed for nearly 200 yards as a team. The Panthers had 335 yards and plenty of success as well with Andy Dalton at QB.  He didn't have the services of Adam Thielen, who has formed a great chemistry with Young.  Thielen has 32 receptions for 405 yards and 4 TD in his last five games with Young.

This game will be played in perfect conditions in the dome in Atlanta.  I think with it being the final game of the season likely for both teams they will want to put up as big of numbers offensively as possible.  The offenses have the advantage over the defenses in this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -17

The Baltimore Ravens will be max motivated on Saturday to clinch the AFC North and the #3 seed in the AFC.  They also want revenge on the Cleveland Browns after losing to Jameis Winston on the road in their first meeting.  But they won't have to face Winston this time around.

The Ravens are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall crushing the Giants by 21 on the road, the Steelers by 17 at home and the Texans by 29 on the road.  They are about as healthy as they have been all season, and their defense is playing as well as it has all year.

Lamar Jackson is on the cusp of winning another MVP.  I think he wants to put up big numbers in this game to make his case.  Jackson leads the league's top-ranked offense rank 1st in total offense at 424.2 yards per game and 1st at 7.0 yards per play.  They are also scoring 30.2 points per game this season.

The Browns will go with a mix of Dorian-Thompson Robinson and Bailey Zappe at quarterback.  DTR has scored a total of 6 points in the last 20-plus drives for the Browns.  I would prefer he gets the bulk of the reps, but Zappe hasn't had any success in the NFL either.

Whoever is under center won't have the services of their top three RB.  Chubb is out with a season-ending injury, and both Ford and Strong went out with injuries last week and have been placed on injured reserve.  Star TE David Njoku is also out, as is WR Cedric Tillman.  The Browns have scored a total of 16 points in their last three games, or an average of 5.3 points per game.

While the Browns defense is pretty good when fully healthy, that is no longer the case.  They lost three more starters to injury last week in DT Tomlinson, LB Hicks and CB Ward, who will all be out this week.  They already had six defenders on IR.  I don't expect their defense to hold up at all this week.  

The Browns have incentive to lose this game to get the best draft pick possible as they are in a four-way tie for the worst record in the NFL at 3-13 on the season.  Management is doing everything they can to put the players on the field that give them the best chance to lose.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Ravens Saturday.

20* Buffalo/Liberty Bahamas Bowl No-Brainer on Buffalo ML -127

Sometimes bowl games are all about motivation.  And I have no doubt Buffalo is going to be the more motivated team in the Bahamas Bowl against Liberty.  They will also be the better team considering all the players that Liberty is missing.

Expectations were very low for Buffalo this season.  First-year head coach Pete Lembo took over a 3-9 team and turned the Bulls into a contender in the MAC despite being picked by most to finish near the bottom of the conference.  The Bulls went 8-4 this season with all four losses coming to bowl teams in Ohio, WMU, UConn and Missouri.  They also beat fellow bowl teams NIU and Toledo, who both won their bowl games.  Those six bowl teams went a combined 5-1 in bowl games.

Liberty failed to even make the championship game of the worst conference in the country in C-USA.  They were odds-on favorites to win the conference coming in.  They lost to Sam Houston State in their regular season finale, needed OT to beat a terrible UMass (2-10) team, and had several other questionable efforts throughout the season including an outright loss to Kennesaw State (2-10).  They also needed OT to beat awful FIU (4-8).

The biggest loss for the Flames is QB Kaidon Salter, who left for Colorado to try and take the place of Shedeur Sanders.  Three starters along the offensive line hit the transfer portal, as did starting DL Dixon and DL Nairne.  Former App State transfer Ryan Burger will start at QB.  All six players in the portal won't play in the bowl game and head coach Jamey Chadwell said he expects more opt-outs.  Starting S Quinton Reese and starting TE Bentley Hanshaw didn't play in the finale due to injuries.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has the exact same depth chart for the bowl game as it did in the regular season finale.  The Bulls went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games outscoring those opponents by a combined 67 points. Their offense is humming scoring 37 or more points in five of their last six games.  They want to be here and the Flames don't.  I also believe the Bulls are the better team in their current state.  Bet Buffalo on the Money Line in the Bahamas Bowl Saturday.

20* Minnesota/Virginia Tech Mayo Bowl No-Brainer on Minnesota -7

PJ Fleck is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in bowl games as the head coach at Minnesota.  Few coaches take bowl games more seriously than Fleck does.  And I expect him to have his guys ready to go for the Mayo Bowl against Virginia Tech Friday.

The Gophers have been an undervalued commodity all season going 7-5 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in all games this season.  They aren't the most flashy team, but they do have the best passing game they've had in a long time, and they are still great on defense and in the running game which is the case every year under Fleck.

QB Max Brosmer was a great addition in the transfer portal.  He is completing 66.8% of his passes for 2,617 yards with a 17-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  The Gophers have scored at least 24 points in six of their last eight games and finished strong, going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven games.  That includes a 1-point loss to Penn State and a 7-point loss at Rutgers.  They beat Wisconsin by 17 on the road, Illinois by 8 on the road, Maryland by 25 at home, UCLA by 4 on the road and USC by 7 at home.

Minnesota has yet another elite defense ranking 12th in the country allowing 17.5 points per game and 7th in total defense at 290.9 yards per game.  The Gophers will likely have a few players sit including RT Phillip Daniels and OT Aireontae Ersery, but there losses aren't nearly as big as what Virginia Tech is dealing with.

Indeed, the Hokies will be missing a ton of starters.  They will be without starting LT Xavier Chaplin, starting C Braelin Moore, starting CB Mansoor Delane, starting S Mose Phillips, LB Sam Brumfield, LB Keli Lawson and RB Malachi Thomas.  DE Powell-Ryland, DT Peebles, WR Felton, WR Lane and CB Strong have all opted out.

That doesn't even include the fact that the Hokies will be missing their two best players on offense in QB Drones and RB Tuten.  Tuten, RG Moore, DT Pene and SS Jenkins all weren't spotted at a recent practice, so the Hokies could be down as many as 14 starters.  It will either be backup QB Schlee or Pop Watson at QB.  What a mess.  Bet Minnesota in the Mayo Bowl Friday.

15* North Texas/Texas State First Responder Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Texas State -13.5

This is much more of a fade of North Texas than a play on Texas State.  The players the Mean Green will be missing in this game will be too much to overcome, and I fully expect them to get blown out by the Bobcats in the First Responder Bowl.

North Texas QB Chandler Morris has left for Virginia.  He is completing 63.1% of his passes for 3,774 yards with a 31-to-12 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 242 yards and four TD.  That leaves true freshman Drew Mestemaker to start in his place, and those are some massive shoes to fill considering Mestermaker has only attempted five passes all season.

But that's not where it ends.  Leading WR DT Sheffield (66 receptions, 822 yards, 11 TD) has committed to Rutgers.  Starting T Oscar Hammond (19, 238 1 TD) has committed to ORegon State.  Starting C Tyler Mercer and starting LG Leke Asenuga are also both out.  Starting OT Larry Moore is out with an injury.  The Mean Green will be relying on a ton of freshmen on offense, and I just don't think they'll have the firepower to keep up with Texas State.

That's especially the case considering Texas State has an explosive offense and will be up against one of the worst defenses they've seen all season in the Mean Green.  North Texas ranks 121st in scoring defense at 34.5 points per game, 127th in total defense at 456.6 yards per game and 108th at 6.1 yards per play.

Texas State only allows 24.2 points per game, 347.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play to compare, so they have by far the superior defense.  The Bobcats went 7-5 SU this season but were much better than that record would indicate.  Four of their five losses came by one score, and the other was a 10-point loss.  That includes a 3-point loss to Arizona State, which made the four-team playoff.

The Bobcats will only for sure be without three starters to the transfer portal and possibly five or six.  The biggest of note is RB Ismail Mahdi (991 yards, 4 TD, 5.4/carry).  But backup RB's Pare (404 yards, 6 TD, 5.5/carry) and Burgess (344 yards, 2 TD, 6.4/carry) are ready to fill his shoes.  

There are rumors QB Jordan McCloud may not play significant snaps since I released this play, but backup RJ Martinez is an intriguing transfer from Baylor.  He has completed 18-of-24 passes this season.  Whoever is under center will have three 600-yard receivers at his disposal as none of the receivers have opted out.

North Texas went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its final six games of the season.  The Mean Green needed a 24-17 win at lowly Temple (3-9) in their finale just to make a bowl game.  They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without Morris, Sheffield and several others.  Bet Texas State in the First Responder Bowl Friday.

20* Ohio State/Oregon Rose Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 55

This is a rematch from a 32-31 win by Oregon on October 12th.  Honestly, the 63 combined points was about the minimum they could have scored when you look at the box score.  Oregon had 496 total yards and Ohio State had 467, so they combined for 953 total yards.  There were four field goals including three of 27 yards or fewer.  And Ohio State should have had another FG to win the game but mismanaged the clock in the closing seconds.

It was one of Will Howard's best games of the season for Ohio State as he went 28-of-35 passing for 326 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.  Dillon Gabriel went 23-of-34 passing for 341 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Both teams have weaknesses in the secondary that will be exploited again in the rematch.

Ohio State got conservative late in the season.  Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly made the proper adjustments heading into the playoffs and opened it up against a very good Tennessee defense.  The Buckeyes put up 21 points in the 1st quarter before anyone could blink in a 42-17 win over Tennessee.  Howard finished 24-of-29 passing for 311 yards and 2 TD with one INT against that stout Tennessee defense.  Kelly and Howard will keep their foot on the gas this week.

Oregon got a much-needed bye after an ugly win at Wisconsin.  The Ducks came out of that bye with their hair on fire on offense.  They blasted Washington 49-21 before topping Penn State 45-37 in a shootout in the Big Ten Championship Game.  It's tough to get in a shootout with Penn State because they are suspect on offense and elite on defense.  It just goes to show what Oregon is capable of on offense, and their their defense is overrated.

Penn State managed 518 total yards against Oregon.  Of course, Ohio State put up 467 yards on the Ducks in that first meeting.  Their defense is definitely their weakness.  But Oregon is elite on offense. They Ducks rank 13th in scoring at 35.9 points per game, 14th in total offense at 449.8 yards per game and 15th at 6.6 yards per play.  That's impressive playing in the rugged Big Ten.

Oregon has scored at least 31 points in 11 of its last 12 games and will likely get to 31 or more here.  I expect Ohio State to get into the 30's as well in what will be another shootout as neither defense has an answer for these two elite offenses, especially now that the Buckeyes have opened things up.  Bet the OVER in the Rose Bowl Wednesday.

20* Boise State/Penn State Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Boise State +11

From a line value perspective there's clearly value on Boise State.  Penn State just hosted SMU and was a 9-point favorite at home.  That game was played in extremely cold weather against a warm weather team in the Mustangs.  I believe Boise State is better than SMU, especially considering as of this writing the ACC is 1-9 SU & 0-10 ATS in bowl games now.

Now Penn State is an 11-point favorite over Boise State on a neutral in Glendale, AZ where the Broncos will have the majority of the fans.  This line is way out of whack and it should be Penn State -7 or less.  I'll gladly take the value and back the Broncos, who also have the rest and preparation advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals.

Boise State is 12-1 SU this season with its only loss coming 37-34 at Oregon, which remains unbeaten and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  That game was every bit as close as the final score indicated as the Broncos actually outgained the Ducks 369 to 352 for the game.

Boise State also beat Washington State 45-24 back when Washington State was good.  The Broncos also beat UNLV twice this season having to beat them in the Mountain West Championship Game to make the four-team playoff.  That's a very good UNLV team that is also grossly undervalued.

Penn State has always struggled in big games under James Franklin.  Franklin is 3-19 SU against Top 10 teams as Penn State's head coach, including 1-14 SU against Top 5 teams.  Just this season alone the Nittany Lions lost 20-13 at home to Ohio State and 45-37 on a neutral to Oregon.  That gives these teams a common opponent as Boise State lost 37-34 to Oregon, but that was on the road in Eugene, which is a huge difference.  Penn State got to play Oregon in Big Ten country in Indianapolis.

I also think Penn State's misleading 38-10 win over SMU in the opening playoff game is giving them too much respect here.  Their first two scores of the game were pick-6's that totally changed the game.  It looked like SMU was going to score and take the lead twice early, but the two pick 6's flipped it.  Penn State only had 325 total yards against a shaky SMU defense.  The Mustangs were also missing several key players that led to their success during the regular season.

Boise State has tremendous balance even though star RB Ashton Jeanty gets all the credit.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring offense at 39.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 470.2 yards per game and 6th at 6.8 yards per play.  They average 250.5 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry, which ranks 5th and 2nd respectively, but they also throw for 219.6 yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.  

The strength of their defense is stopping the run which makes this a good matchup for them against run-heavy Penn State.  The Broncos allow 115.1 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry this season.  They also create a lot of havoc in opposing backfields.  Bet Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl Tuesday.

25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor ML -115

The Baylor Bears are quietly playing as well as almost anyone in the country heading into bowl season.  They were a hail mary and OT loss to Colorado away from playing in the Big 12 Championship Game, and may very well be the actual best team in the Big 12.

The Bears are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall beating Texas Tech by 24 on the road, Oklahoma State by 10 at home, TCU by 3 at home, West Virginia by 14 on the road, Houston by 10 on the road and Kansas by 28 at home.  That win over the Jayhawks in the regular season finale was mighty impressive considering Kansas was 5-6 on the season and desperate to get to a bowl game after beating both BYU and Colorado the previous two weeks.

This Baylor offense is hitting on all cylinders.  The Bears have scored at least 37 points in five of their last six games while averaging 41.3 points per game and 505.5 yards per game in their last six games.  They have tremendous balance and play at a break-neck pace.  Sawyer Robinson is one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  He has thrown for 2,626 yards with a 26-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 227 yards and four scores on the ground.

Baylor has very few key players in the transfer portal and very few injuries.  They are expected to get a pair of LB's back from injury as well who missed the finale.  Head coach Dave Aranda was the defensive coordinator at LSU when they won the National Championship.  He would love nothing more than to beat his former team.

While Baylor is going to have basically all hands on deck, LSU is going to be missing several key players.  Both starting offensive tackles in Will Campbell and Emery Jones as well as TE Mason Taylor (55 receptions, 546 yards, 2 TD) have declared for the NFL Draft.  Leading WR Kyren Lacy (58 receptions, 866 yards, 9 TD) has opted out and fourth-leading WR CJ Daniels (42 receptions, 480 yards) has committed to Miami.  Starting S Sage Ryan has committed to Ole Miss and fellow S Major Burns has opted out.

LSU will start three freshmen along the offensive line, and freshman Trey'Dez Green is the only scholarship TE available.  I think head coach Brian Kelly is much more concerned with locking in his roster for next season than he is about winning a bowl game, plus he doesn't have the horses to win it anyway.  

The Tigers finished 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games this season with their two wins coming at home over Vanderbilt by 7 and Oklahoma by 20, while losing by 15 at Texas A&M, by 29 at home to Alabama and by 11 at Florida.  Baylor wants to be here more and has the more talented roster in its current state.  The Bears will also have the home-field advantage with this game being played in Houston, TX.  Bet Baylor on the Money Line in the Texas Bowl Tuesday.

15* South Carolina/Illinois Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +10

The Illinois Fighting Illini flew under the radar all season going 9-3 SU & 8-3-1 ATS.  They continue flying under the radar as double-digit underdogs to the South Carolina Gamecocks in the Citrus Bowl.

Illinois played everyone tough this season except for the No. 1 team in the country in Oregon on the road.  They also lost by 14 at Penn State in a game that was tied 7-7 midway through the 3rd quarter.  They also lost by 8 to Minnesota in what was a favorable rest spot for the Gophers.

The only opt-out for Illinois is WR Pat Bryant.  Head coach Bret Bielema said he doesn't expect any other opt-outs.  RG Zy Crisler is in the transfer portal but will play, as well WR Kenari Wilcher.  The Fighting Illini are in great shape heading into this bowl game.

South Carolina went 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS this season and was grossly undervalued all year as well.  And with the upset of Clemson in the season finale, the Gamecocks come into this bowl game getting a ton of respect.  They are overvalued as double-digit favorites as this line should be much closer to 3 than 10.  They also get respect because they are in the SEC.

The Gamecocks have two big opt-outs in DE Kyle Kennard and RB Rahiem Sanders.  Sanders is a huge loss because he is a great back who refuses to go down.  He rushed for 881 yards and 11 TD this season.  Kennard will be a top draft pick after registering 11.5 sacks and forcing four fumbles.  He is their best player on defense.  

The Fighting Illini haven't won a bowl game since 2011 so they will be max motivated.  Bet Illinois in the Citrus Bowl Tuesday.

20* Lions/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (32.9 PPG), 2nd in total offense (408.6 YPG) and 2nd in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  They did just lose RB David Montgomery to injury, but not having him actually makes them more of an OVER team.  They have to throw more and backup RB Jamir Gibbs is more explosive and better at catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 14 defenders on IR alone.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts the last three weeks going 3-0 OVER.  They accomplished it with a 34-31 win over Green Bay three weeks ago, but they couldn't get two weeks ago in a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

Last week, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

The 49ers are going to make this Detroit defense pay for being down so many starters, and they will punch it in for scores like the Packers and Bills did previously.  The 49ers rank 10th in total offense at 365.7 yards per game and 4th at 6.4 yards per play.  This is still one of the best offenses in the NFL with ample weapons to get the job done.

But this has become a leaky, banged up 49ers defense especially along the front seven.  The 49ers allowed 29 points to the Dolphins, 35 to the Bills and 38 to the Packers in three of their last five games.  They just lost LB Dre Greenlaw and DE Leonard Floyd to injuries last week against the Dolphins to make matters worse.  I fully expect the Lions to score in the 30's, and the 49ers to get into the 20's at least as this thing sails OVER 51.5 combined points.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings including the 34-31 win by the 49ers in the playoffs last season that saw 65 combined points with the Lions finishing with 442 total yards and the 49ers with 413.  Both teams are a lot worse off defensively in the rematch this time around, while both offenses are still very potent.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Falcons/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +4

This line should be 3 or less, so there's value in backing the Falcons as 4-point underdogs to the Washington Commanders.  The game means more to the Falcons too as they are life and death with the Bucs tied for first place, but they have the tiebreaker.  They need to win out because the Bucs are likely going to win out with two home games against the Panthers this week and the Saints next week.

Sure, the Commanders need one more win to assure themselves a playoff spot, but they aren't as desperate as the Falcons.  They have the beat up Cowboys next week to clinch that spot if they need it.  And that sets them up for a sandwich spot.  They are coming off a huge comeback 36-33 win over the Eagles last week after a last-second 20-19 win at New Orleans the previous week.  I question how much they have left in the tank, and they could easily not be 'all in' for this game knowing they have the Cowboys next week.  

I know the Falcons are not only 'all in' for a win this week, but also 'all in' on the decision to go with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback.  He has been overlooked everywhere he has gone dating back to his time at Indiana and taking Washington to the National Championship game in college.

Penix Jr. was very impressive in leading the Falcons to a 34-7 win over the Giants in his first start last week.  He went 18-of-27 passing for 202 yards and his accuracy is a clear strength.  Even his lone INT was his TE Pitts' fault as he dropped a ball near the goal line.  Penix Jr. looked in complete control of the offense, and he is ready to open it up if he has to this week.

What is flying under the radar with the Falcons is just how dominant they have been defensively in recent weeks.  They held the Chargers to 186 total yards, the Raiders to 9 points and 249 total yards and the Giants to 7 points and 234 total yards in three of their last four games.  They are much better defensively than the Commanders.

The Falcons are also one of the most healthy teams in the NFL right now which is a big reason for their success here down the stretch.  The Commanders are dealing with three key injuries to WR Dyami Brown, RT Andrew Wylie and CB Marshon Lattimore, who are all three out for this game.  They really have a weak secondary that Penix Jr. can exploit without Lattimore.  And the Commanders rank 29th in the NFL in allowing 137.4 rushing yards per game and 29th allowing 4.8 yards per carry, so expect a big day from Bijan Robinson to take some pressure off of Penix Jr.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* Packers/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on Minnesota ML -120

If both teams were max motivated and fully healthy this line would be about right.  But that's simply not the case.  The Vikings are way more motivated to win this game than the Packers, and the Vikings are also much healthier than the Packers to boot.

The Vikings are tied with the Lions for the best record in the NFC and the No. 1 seed on the line.  They have to win this game to make their Week 18 game against the Lions meaningful and for all the marbles.  A loss would eliminate them from the possibility of winning the division if the Lions beat the 49ers on Monday.

The Packers are locked into the 5th or 6th seed in the NFC.  They essentially have nothing to play for because they cannot win the division even if they win this game.  They have four losses and the Lions or Vikings are guaranteed to finish with three losses at worst since they play each other next week.

The Vikings are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  That's a big reason they are 13-2 SU & 10-4-1 ATS as one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  They quietly take an 8-game winning streak into this game with the Packers Sunday afternoon.

The Packers are going to be without three key defenders this week in LB Quay Walker, CB Jaire Alexander and SS Evan Williams.  WR Christian Watson is questionable after getting hurt last week, as is starting NB Javon Bullard.  I think the Green Bay offense is capable of going score for score with the Vikings, but the difference is the Vikings are going to score at will against this banged up Green Bay defense.

Minnesota is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season with its only loss coming 31-29 to Detroit.  The Vikings are outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game at home with one of the best home-field advantages in the league.  You can bet its going to be the best atmosphere for any Minnesota home game all season with what's at stake and with a division rival in Green Bay coming to town.  Bet the Vikings on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Las Vegas Raiders ML -116

While many teams are hoping to lose out to get the best draft pick possible, the Las Vegas Raiders aren't one of them.  Anthony Pierce is a rebel and his players follow his lead.  Pierce and his Raiders treat every game like their life is at stake, and they will treat this one just the same.

The Raiders are remarkably healthy right now, and getting Aidan O'Connell back at QB means a lot to their offense.  O'Connell returned last week to throw for 257 yards in leading them to a 19-14 home win over the Jaguars.  This came on the heels of throwing for 340 yards and 2 TD against the Chiefs in the previous game he started and finished, which tells you all you need to know about what he's capable of.

The Saints are so beat up right now that they just cannot field a competitive team.  We saw just how bad the New Orleans Saints were earlier this season when they were without Derek Carr.  They lost 51-27 at home to Tampa Bay, 33-10 at home to Denver and 26-8 to the Chargers on the road in their first three games without Carr.  They were outscored by a total of 65 points in those three games or by an average of 21.7 points per game.

In their next game without Carr two weeks ago it was a very misleading loss to the Commanders.  Washington jumped out to a 17-0 lead and looked well on their way to a blowout.  But the Saints switched from Jake Haener to Spencer Rattler, and made a huge comeback.  The Saints ended up losing 20-19 after scoring on the final play of the game and missing the 2-point conversion.  They should have never gotten that play off as the refs stopped the clock prematurely.  They should have lost 20-13 best case, but it would have been worse if the Commanders didn't take their foot off the gas.  I think they were caught looking ahead to their huge game against the Eagles in the 2H.

Last week, the Saints got a dose of reality in a 34-0 loss to the Packers.  Rattler was indeed rattled, and he just didn't have much help with all the players he was missing.  The Saints fell to 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in games without Carr, getting outscored by an averaged of 20.0 points per game.

Carr remains out, but the Saints lost Alvin Kamara late in that loss to the Commanders and he sat out last week and was missed.  Kamara is out again this week, as are each of their top four receivers in Olave, Means, Shaheed and possibly Valdes-Scantling.  They are also without starting C Erik McCoy on offense and this offensive line is a mash unit, giving Rattler almost zero chance to be successful.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

20* BYU/Colorado Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on BYU +4

If both teams had all hands on deck, I'd still like BYU +4.  But while BYU has pretty much all hands on deck for this Alamo Bowl, there are big time questions surrounding Colorado's star players even though they've said they will play.  But how long they play is another story.  

I can't see QB Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter risking their future by playing the entire game.  So it would just be an added bonus if they decide to sit out after starting the game.  WR Jimmy Horn, WR LaJohntay Webster, WR Will Shepard and DT Chidozie Nwankwo are also potential opt-outs.  LB Nikhai Hill-Green signed with Alabama, while CB Preston Hodge and DL Amari McNeil are injured.  RT Philip Houston and RB Isaiah Augustave both missed the finale, and WR Jimmy Horn missed the last couple games.

BYU should only be without one starter due to opt-out, which is S Crew Wakley.  LB Harrison Tarrart missed the finale by is on the bowl depth chart.  It looks like BYU will have their entire defense available except for Wakley.  There have been some shakeups on the O-Line due to injury, but they will be healthier there than they were in the finale.  WR Darius Lassiter will play but will sit out the first half due to an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.

BYU went 10-2 this season with its two losses coming by 5 at Arizona State and by 4 at home to Kansas.  The Cougars easily could have won both games as they had the ball in the final seconds looking to take the lead deep in ASU and KU territory.  Colorado went 9-3 and benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the Big 12.  They caught teams are the right times as well.

There are 5 common opponents between BYU and Colorado this season.  BYU played Arizona and Baylor very similarly to Colorado in winning both games, but BYU was much better against Kansas and Kansas State than Colorado was.  Colorado went 0-2 against those two while getting outscored by 19 points, while BYU went 1-1 against those two and outscored them by 25 points.

I know BYU head coach Kalani Sitake will have the Cougars ready to play and they are happy and motivated to be here.  The Cougars missed out on a bowl game last year for the first time since 2017, and they have only missed two bowl games since 2005.  They will be more than happy making a bowl and going for their 11th win of the season.

I suspect Colorado is more interested in hitting the transfer portal hard with Deion Sanders and company.  There are a lot of distractions with Shedeur Sanders potentially the No. 1 overall pick and having the Heisman Trophy winner in Hunter.  But that just puts and even bigger target on their back, and you can bet BYU is licking its chops at the opportunity to take them down.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet BYU Saturday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals -3

The Cincinnati Bengals have been in must-win mode the last three weeks and they have come up clutch going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They are now still very much alive to make the playoffs, and they get the exact opponent they need to beat to help their case.

The Bengals now get to host the Denver Broncos, the team they are trailing by two games with two games to go for the final wild card spot.  They would get the head-to-head win over the Broncos to give them the tiebreaker with a win, and the Broncos have the Chiefs on deck next week so it's very possible they lose out.

I think some misleading wins by the Broncos here of late have them overvalued, and the Bengals should be more than 3-point home favorites here.  The Broncos are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall but easily could have lost all four games when you dig into the box scores.

Four games ago the Bengals beat the Raiders 29-19 on the road despite getting outgained 369 to 325 by the Raiders, or by 44 yards.  Three games ago they beat the Browns 41-32 despite getting outgained 552 to 400 by the Browns, or by 152 total yards.  Two games ago they beat the Colts 31-13 despite getting outgained 310 to 193 by the Colts, or by 117 total yards.  The Colts took a TD off the board letting the ball go just short of the goal line in celebration which turned that game.  And last week they were outgained by 25 yards by the Chargers in a 34-27 road loss.

While Bo Nix and the offense have been solid, the Denver defense is the real concern here of late.  They have allowed 402.8 yards per game in their last four games, including 299.8 passing yards per game.  They have been without CB Riley Moss and fellow CB Patrick Surtain II is banged up.

That's not god news for this Denver defense having to go up against Joe Burrow and one of the best passing offenses in the NFL.  The Bengals are averaging 32.6 points per game in their last seven games.  They are averaging 313.8 passing yards per game in their last six games.  Burrow is completing 69% of his passes for 4,229 yards with a 39-to-8 TD/INT ratio this season.  I certainly trust him and his experience over rookie Nix in this game with massive playoff implications.  Bet the Bengals Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Miami Pop-Tarts Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 55.5

The Miami Hurricanes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-3-1 OVER in all games this season with 56 or more combined points in 10 of their 12 games.  That makes for a 10-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 55.5-point total.

They went for 80 combined points with Syracuse, 84 with Duke, 97 with Louisville, 77 with Cal and 72 with Virginia Tech in five of their last eight games.  Iowa State's strength is on offense with Rocco Becht and elite receivers on the outside.  The Cyclones average 30.2 points per game and should be able to match Miami score for score.

The key here is that neither team has many players missing this game.  Even Heisman finalist Cam Ward said he would play for Miami.  WR Xavier Restrepo hasn't decided as of this writing.  I would imagine if Ward goes then everyone will follow suit.  The Hurricanes will likely be without CB Jadais Richard, CB Dyoni HIll and DE Elijah Alston due to injuries, though.

The Cyclones have injuries of their own on defense.  S Malik Verdon is unlikely to play.  LB Caleb Bacon isn't expected back from injury.  DE Tyler Onyedim is in the transfer portal, as are DE Kenard Snyder and DE Trent Jones.  They'll be trying to stop a Miami offense that ranks 1st in scoring at 44.2 points per game, 1st in total offense at 538.2 yards per game and 1st at 7.6 yards per play.

Iowa State and its opponents have combined for at least 59 points in five of its last nine games, including 51 or more in seven of those.  Arizona State, without its best receiver, just put up 45 points and 464 total yards on the Cyclones in the Big 12 Championship Game.  And Iowa State hasn't seen an offense nearly as potent as Miami all season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Arkansas Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Texas Tech +1.5

There is a lot going on with this bowl game between Texas Tech and Arkansas in terms of transfers and opt-outs.  But after going through them all, it clearly looks like Arkansas has more losses and bigger losses that they will have to deal with than Texas Tech does.

Arkansas will be without its top three receivers, its top two running backs, four starting offensive linemen, two starting defensive backs, a starting safety and a starting LB and three defensive linemen.  They are down to just six healthy scholarship offensive linemen.  It really seems like head coach Sam Pittman is almost punting on this bowl game at this point.

It's only fair that I list all the losses for Texas Tech as well.  They will be without starting QB Behren Morton, but I liked what I saw from freshman QB Will Hammond, who saw some action this season and impressed in the 2H against TCU.  Leading receiver Josh Kelly and starting T Ty Buchanan will be out, and the Red Raiders will also have two new coordinators.

But RB Tahj Brooks is listed as RB1 on the bowl depth chart, and it would be huge for them if he does give it a go.  Brooks rushed for 1,505 yards and 17 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry for the Red Raiders this season.

Arkansas will have starting QB Taylor Greene, but Texas Tech has been elite at defending dual-threat QB's this season.  I also like their momentum to finish the season going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games including a 52-15 beat down of West Virginia in the finale.

Simply put, I think Texas Tech wants to be here more than Arkansas does and their personnel losses aren't nearly as big as the losses for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Joey McGuire clearly goes 'all in' for bowl games as he is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS at Texas Tech with a 42-25 win over Ole Miss as 3-point dogs in 2022 and a 34-14 win over Cal as 3-point favorites last year.  Bet Texas Tech Friday.

20* Georgia Tech/Vanderbilt Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on UNDER 51.5

This game will be played at a snail's pace.  Vanderbilt ranks 130th out of 134 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.0 seconds.  Georgia Tech ranks 84th snapping the ball every 27.0 seconds.  There will be fewer possessions in this game than most, thus points will be very hard to come by.

The forecast is also good for the UNDER.  There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds with a greater than 70% chance of precipitation at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, AL Saturday.

Both defenses have been pretty solid and are a big reason these teams had such successful seasons.  Vanderbilt allows 23.1 points per game while Georgia Tech allows 24.8 points per game.  While the Yellow Jackets have a pretty good offense, the Commodores do not, ranking 123rd in the country in total offense at 319.4 yards per game and 103rd at 5.3 yards per play.

But Georgia Tech's offense is going to be missing several key players that will hamper them on that side of the ball.  They will be without leading receiver Eric Singleton, who has 56 receptions for 754 yards and 3 TD on the season.  They will also be without LT Corey Robinson and backup LT Jordan Brown.  

The Commodores have very few opt-outs or transfers.  They will only possibly be missing three guys, but two of them are on offense in OT Gunnar Hansen and TE Eli Stowers, who leads the team with 45 receptions for 583 yards and 4 TD.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Oklahoma/Navy Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Navy +3

Navy QB Blake Horvath played the 2nd half of the season injured.  He finally got healthy for their last game and it has made all the difference for the Midshipmen, who have one of the most explosive offenses in school history this season.

Navy took on a East Carolina team that has won four in a row and in their second-to-last game and handled them 34-20.  The Midshipmen outgained the Pirates 458 to 350, or by 108 total yards. Horvath returned against Army in their finale to lead them to the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.  

The Midshipmen blasted the Black Knights 31-13 while outgaining them 378 to 178 for the game, or by 200 total yards.  Horvath rushed for 204 yards and 2 TD on 25 carries while also throwing for 107 yards and 2 TD in one of his best games of the season to show he is fully healthy heading into the bowl game.  They handed Army just their 2nd loss of the season.

Now the Midshipmen have their sights set on the Oklahoma Sooners in the Armed Forces Bowl, which will be a big home-field advantage for them in Fort Worth.  Oklahoma clearly isn't taking this game seriously with all their transfers and opt-outs, and the wrong team is favored here.

The Sooners will be without starting QB Jackson Arnold, five of their best receivers, their starting TE, two starting CB's and RB Jovantae Barnes.  They will also be without their two best defenders in LB Danny Stutsman and S Billy Bowman.  If WR Deion Burks cannot go, the Sooners' options at receiver will be eight freshmen for backup QB Michael Hawkins, who is more of a runner than a thrower.

This Oklahoma offense is absolutely dreadful and will be in worse shape than they have been all season heading into this bowl game.  The Sooners rank 120th in total offense at 322.8 yards per game, 126th at 4.8 yards per play and 94th in scoring at 24.3 points per game.  Nothing will come easy for them against Navy, which just held the best rushing team in the country in Army to 113 yards on 39 attempts.  Bet Navy Friday.

15* Arkansas State/Bowling Green Ventures Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -7

Bowling Green has minimal opt-outs.  Star TE Harold Fannin Jr. is going to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft but decided to play.  That's huge for their offense as Fannin is not only the best TE in the country, but one of the best receivers overall.  He has 100 receptions for 1,342 yards and 9 TD this season.  He needs 11 receiving yards and 12 receptions to break the all-time records for tight ends, and I think QB Connor Bazelak will force feed him against this awful Arkansas State defense.

We've seen what this Bowling Green offense is capable of scoring at least 27 points in eight of its 12 games this season.  That includes 27 points against Penn State and 20 against Texas A&M, which is very impressive against those two defenses.  They nearly upset both of those teams losing by 7 to Penn State and by 6 to Texas A&M both on the road.

Arkansas State is one of the most fraudulent bowl teams I've ever seen.  The Red Wolves average 385.9 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing 461.6 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 76 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play on the season, which are numbers that you would see from a 3-9 or 4-8 team rather than one that is 7-5 like the Red Wolves.

We've seen Arkansas State get waxed when they have stepped up in class this season.  They lost 52-7 to Iowa State, 41-9 to Texas State and 55-19 to Louisiana.  I think they get waxed one last time here against a motivated Bowling Green team that will have all hands on deck.  Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones has stated he's more focused on next season than this bowl game with many of his comments leading up to it.  Bet Bowling Green in the Ventures Bowl Thursday.

20* Arkansas State/Bowling Green Ventures Bowl Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

Arkansas State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Red Wolves rank 19th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds on offense.  They have one of the worst defenses in the country to go along with a decent offense.

The Red Wolves rank 66th in total offense at 385.9 yards per game.  They have solid balance averaging 159 rushing yards per game and 227 passing.  Their defense is dreadful, ranking 129th in the country allowing 461.6 yards per game and 131st allowing 6.9 yards per play.  They have almost no opt outs but will be without starting CB Dontay Joyder and DE Jayden Jones.

Bowling Green has minimal opt-outs.  Star TE Harold Fannin Jr. is going to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft but decided to play.  That's huge for their offense as Fannin is not only the best TE in the country, but one of the best receivers overall.  He has 100 receptions for 1,342 yards and 9 TD this season.  He needs 11 receiving yards and 12 receptions to break the all-time records for tight ends, and I think QB Connor Bazelak will force feed him against this awful Arkansas State defense.

We've seen what this Bowling Green offense is capable of scoring at least 27 points in eight of its 12 games this season.  That includes 27 points against Penn State and 20 against Texas A&M, which is very impressive against those two defenses.  I think the Falcons can do the heavy lifting here, and I expect Arkansas State to have enough success on offense to get this thing up and OVER this short total of 50. Bet the OVER in the Ventures Bowl Thursday.

20* Seahawks/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Seattle -3

With their 27-24 loss to the Vikings last week, the Seahawks now trail the Rams by one game for the division lead with two games to go.  They cannot afford a loss to the Bears on Thursday, otherwise the Rams would clinch the division with a win over the Cardinals on Saturday, and the Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention so may not be all that motivated.

So we are going to get a max effort from the Seahawks on Thursday, and it should be enough to beat the hapless Bears by more than a field goal.  I think we are getting the Seahawks at a discount here due to coming off consecutive losses, but those losses came to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Packers and Vikings. 

They had gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their previous four games, including three of those on the road with upset wins at San Francisco, at the Jets and at Arizona.  They also outgained the Vikings 361 to 298 and deserved to win that game last week, so that misleading final certainly is playing into this line this week as well.  

Geno Smith proved he was healthy after getting injured against the Packers, throwing for 314 yards and 3 TD with 2 INT against the Vikings.  And the Seahawks are remarkably healthy everywhere with the only question being RB Kenneth Walker, but they have actually almost been better with backup RB Zach Charbonnet as he's great running and catching the ball out of the backfield.

This Seattle defense is thriving since getting healthy coming out of their bye week.  They are allowing 19.8 points per game and 309.3 yards per game in their six games since the bye, and it has come against five potent offenses and the Jets, who are improved here down the stretch.

Now the Seahawks will feast on Caleb Williams and one of the worst, most banged up offensive lines in the NFL.  Two more starting offensive linemen were knocked out of their 34-17 home loss to the Lions last week in LT Braxton Jones and LG Teven Jenkins.  Jones is for sure out, and Jenkins probably won't be recoverd on a short week.  They were already without C Ryan Bates and backup C Doug Kramer Jr.  Williams has already been sacked a league-high 60 times, and his offensive line consistently gets called for holding penalties to boot.

The Bears haven't recovered since losing on a hail mary to the Washington Commanders on October 27th.  The Bears are now 0-9 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their last three losses haven't even been close as they have lost those three games by a combined 60 points, or by an average of 20.0 points per game.  This team is on 'quit alert'.

While Williams and the offense have been a big problem all season, the defense has been even more of an issue since firing head coach Matt Eberflus.  While he wasn't a great head coach, he was a tremendous defensive coordinator.  The defense has fallen off a cliff allowing 38 points and 452 total yards to the 49ers, 30 points and 329 total yards to the Vikings and 34 points and 475 total yards to the Lions in their last three games without him.  Geno Smith and company should hang another big number on this soft defense.  Bet the Seahawks Thursday.

15* Rutgers/K-State Rate Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Rutgers +7

Greg Schiano is one of the best bowl coaches in college football.  He has led Rutgers to a 6-2 record in bowl games in his coaching career.  I'm certainly liking taking the +7 with the Scarlet Knights here against the Kansas State Wildcats in the Rate Bowl given Schiano's track record.

I also like the fact that Rutgers hardly has any opt-outs or transfers.  Several players who were expected to opt out have said they are going to play in the bowl game.  The only big loss is their defensive coordinator, but they may be better off with Schiano calling the defensive plays anyways.

Rutgers finished strong going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its final four games and nearly went 4-0 blowing a lead in the final seconds to Illinois.  They upset Minnesota 26-19 as 6.5-point home dogs, upset Maryland as 3.5-point road dogs and upset Michigan State 41-14 as 1.5-point road dogs.

Kansas State has some big-time opt-outs and transfers.  Both RB DJ Giddens and CB Jacob Parrish have declared for the NFL Draft and will not play.  The loss of Giddens is a huge blow considering he has rushed for 1,343 yards and 7 TD while averaging 6.6 per carry.  He is almost their entire offense.  They will also be without RT Carver Willis and WR Keagan Johnson, who has 29 receptions for 359 yards and is their second-leading receiver just ahead of Giddens, who has 21 receptions for 258 yards.

Kansas State QB Avery Johnson has struggled with accuracy and turnovers.  He completes just 59.1% of his passes with a 22-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He is a threat to run, and I think that Schiano will come up with the proper game plan to spy him and not allow him to run much.  The Wildcats have been overvalued all season going just 4-8 ATS in their 12 games, and I think they are being overvalued again here as a 7-point favorite against a Rutgers team that wants to be here.  The Wildcats have questionable motivation especially with all the opt-outs.  Bet Rutgers in the Rate Bowl Thursday.

15* Pitt/Toledo Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 49.5

From a tempo standpoint alone this total is too low.  Then you throw in the fact that it will be played in perfect conditions inside the dome at Ford Field and it's definitely too low.  There is tremendous value on the OVER 49.5 between Pittsburgh and Toledo in the GameAbove Sports Bowl Thursday.

Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.4 seconds only trailing South Florida in that category.  The Panthers will be up against a Toledo team that ranks 13th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds.  There are going to be a ton of possessions in this game, which means more opportunities for points.

The up-tempo offense has paid dividends for the Panthers who are scoring 31.8 points per game with their best offense of the Pat Narduzzi era.  But it has also led to some of the worst defensive numbers of the Narduzzi era, giving up 26.8 points per game this season.  Toledo likes to throw a lot of deep balls, and the Panthers' biggest weakness was against the deep ball this season.

Both teams have more important opt outs on defense than on offense.  Toledo will have its starting QB, and there's a chance Pitt will have its starting QB with Eli Holstein sitting the last few games due to injury, but he may return.  RB Desmond Reid will return after missing the finale with an injury.  Narduzzi said they should be healthier for their bowl game than they were in the regular season finale and expects at least 90% of his seniors to suit up.  He sounded optimistic about Holstein's chances.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Ravens/Texans XMas Day No-Brainer on Baltimore -3

The Baltimore Ravens beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-17 on Saturday to climb into a tie for first place in the division with the Steelers.  They are max motivated right now to win the division and get a home game in the first round of the playoffs.  I expect them to show up in a big way on Christmas Day.

The Houston Texans have already clinched their division and have nothing to play for the rest of the way.  They gave an 'all in' effort to try and beat the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday but came up short in a 27-19 road loss to the defending champs.  I don't see them being motivated at all in Week 17 or Week 18.

So the Ravens are the better, more motivated team. They'll be on the road not having to deal with Christmas distractions back home, and they'll be treating it like a business trip.  I don't see the Texans being motivated at all, and they will be dealing with the distractions that come with Christmas at home.

The Ravens rank 1st in total offense at 423.7 yards per game and 1st at 7.0 yards per play.  The Texans have been broken on offense all season, ranking 16th at 323.3 yards per game and 19th at 5.4 yards per play.  I don't think the Texans have the firepower to keep up with the Ravens in a shootout.

On paper, this was supposed to be an elite Houston offense coming into the season.  But it wasn't even that great when everyone was healthy.  Now injuries have decimated them.  They lost two of their top three receivers in Stephon Diggs and Tank Dell, who suffered a season-ending injury against the Chiefs last week, and they were terrible after he went out.

Of course, it doesn't help that CJ Stroud is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game.  Now G Shaq Mason suffered an injury against the Chiefs and is questionable this week.  WR John Metchie III who would take Dell's place is also out.  S Jimmie Ward is one of the leaders of the defense and he got hurt against the Chiefs and is questionable.  They are already without DT Fatukasi and LB Al-Shaaier, while LB Harris and DE Anderson are questionable.

The Ravens are remarkably healthy on defense.  RB Hill and WR Flowers both got banged up last week, but I expect at least Flowers to go, and their offense was fine even after losing Hill to a concussion.  There's a chance WR Agholor could return this week, and WR Bateman played last week and should be good to go again this week.  We'll back the better, healthier, more motivated team on Christmas Day.  Bet the Ravens Wednesday.

25* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on USF/San Jose State OVER 61.5

The South Florida Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 20.2 seconds.  They play a San Jose State team that also plays super fast, ranking 11th in tempo at 23.4 seconds in between snaps.  It's safe to say the Hawaii Bowl will see as many possessions as any bowl game this season, and thus more opportunities for points in what should be one of the highest scoring games of bowl season.

The OVER is 5-1 in South Florida's last six games overall.  The Bulls combined for 60 points with UAB, 65 points with FAU, 83 points with Charlotte, 93 points with Tulsa and 63 points with Rice.  In their final three games of the season, the Bulls averaged 50.0 points per game and 565.7 total yards per game.

San Jose State boasts a high-octane passing attack.  The Spartans rank 5th in passing at 325.2 yards per game.  They'll be up against a San Jose State defense that ranks 128th allowing 278.7 passing yards per game and 119th allowing 436.6 total yards per game.

Both teams have key defenders in the transfer portal who may not play.  San Jose State could be without both starting CB's DJ Harvey and Michael Dansby, while South Florida could be without starting S Tawfiq Byard and starting DT Doug Blue-Eli.  Bet the OVER in the Hawaii Bowl Tuesday.

20* South Florida/San Jose State Hawaii Bowl No-Brainer on South Florida +4.5

South Florida head coach Alex Golesh has shown his hand about how much making a bowl game and performing in it means to him.  In his first season last year, the Bulls had to win their final game of the season to get bowl eligible.  They went on to beat Syracuse 45-0 as 3-point underdogs in the Boca Raton Bowl.

The Bulls needed another big finish this season to get bowl eligible.  They won four out of five games with their only loss coming to Navy, and the four wins all came by double-digits and by an average of 25.3 points per game.  Because they clinched bowl eligibility with one game remaining, it made their game against Rice in the regular season finale meaningless, and they played like it in a 35-28 defeat.

I think that loss to an underrated Rice team has them undervalued head heading into their bowl game.  Now they are catching 4.5 points against the San Jose State Spartans, who went 7-5 this season but I wasn't all that impressed with them down the stretch.  They lost three of their final five games with a 23-point loss at Fresno State and an 11-point home loss to UNLV where they were held to just 114 total yards.

Now the Spartans are going to be without their best player in WR Nick Nash, who has opted out of this bowl game to get ready for the NFL.  Nash may be the best receiver in the country and is irreplaceable for the Spartans.  He has 104 receptions for 1,382 yards and 16 TD this season.  Defensively, the Spartans could be without both starting CB's in DJ Harvey and Michael Dansby, who are in the transfer portal.

I don't think the Spartans have the firepower to keep up with South Florida in this one without Nash.  The Bulls averaged 50.0 points per game and 565.7 total yards per game in their final three games of the season.  They play at the fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 20.2 seconds.  They wear down their opponents, and they will wear down this San Jose State defense for four quarters.

South Florida has great balance ranking 28th in rushing at 191.2 yards per game and 69th in passing at 226.8 yards per game.  But their bread and butter is running the football and has been down the stretch.  That makes this a great matchup for them up against a San Jose State defense that allowed 170 or more rushing yards in six of their final nine games this season.  Bet South Florida in the Hawaii Bowl Tuesday.

15* Saints/Packers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay -13.5

We saw just how bad the New Orleans Saints were earlier this season when they were without Carr.  They lost 51-27 at home to Tampa Bay, 33-10 at home to Denver and 26-8 to the Chargers on the road in their first three games without Carr.  They were outscored by a total of 65 points in those three games or by an average of 21.7 points per game.

Last week, the final misleading final score against the Commanders is giving the Saints more respect than they deserve.  Washington jumped out to a 17-0 lead and looked well on their way to a blowout.  But the Saints switched from Jake Haener to Spencer Rattler, and made a huge comeback.

The Saints ended up losing 20-19 after scoring on the final play of the game and missing the 2-point conversion.  They should have never gotten that play off as the refs stopped the clock prematurely.  They should have lost 20-13 best case, but it would have been worse if the Commanders didn't take their foot off the gas.  I think they were caught looking ahead to their huge game against the Eagles in the 2H.

I'm not worried at all about the Packers having a letdown.  They are trying to improve their playoff positioning and this is a standalone game on Monday Night Football, so there's no chance they let down.  And anything close to an 'A' effort is going to be enough for the Packers to win this game by 2-plus touchdowns to cover this 13.5-point spread.

The Packers are 10-4 this season with their losses coming to the Lions (twice), the Vikings by 2 and the Eagles by 5.  They are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL and they are playing like it.  The Packers are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall which includes a 38-10 beat down of the 49ers at home, a 30-17 beat down of the Dolphins at home and a 30-13 beat down of the Seahawks on the road.  They outgained the Seahawks 369 to 208 last week in a dominant effort.

The Packers are about as healthy as any team in the NFL right now which is a big reason they are playing so well.  It looks like they will get CB Jaire Alexander back this week on defense.  They are fully healthy on offense, and defensively they only have two guys questionable in LB Quay Walker and NB Javon Bullard.  There's a good chance one or both play.

I always like fading dome teams that are used to playing in perfect conditions when they have to go outdoors and deal with the elements.  I don't expect Rattler and company to handle it very well this week.  It will be in the 20's at Lambeau Field Monday night with a 50% possibility of snow and rain as of this writing.  Bet the Packers Monday.

15* Northern Illinois/Fresno State Potato Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois -3

Fresno State has been hit as hard as almost anyone in terms of starters who won't be playing either due to the transfer portal or opt outs.  The Bulldogs will be without starting QB Mikey Keene, two starting WR's in Jalen Moss and Raylen Sharpe, three starting CB's in Alzillion Hamilton, Julian Neal and Cam Lockridge, two starting DT's in Gavriel Lightfoot and Jacob Holmes and starting LB Phoenix Jackson.

So the Bulldogs have been decimated especially on defense.  There starting WR's for the bowl game have a combined four receptions, and they will be starting a backup QB.  Northern Illinois is a run-heavy team that will be able to exploit this decimated Fresno State defense.

The Huskies have plenty of transfers and opt outs of their own, but they haven't been hit as hard as Fresno State.  They will be without starting QB Ethan Hampton, starting WR Trayvon Rudolph, starting S Santana Banner, starting DT Skyler Gill-Howard and starting DE Jalonnie Williams due to the transfer portal.

Josh Hoist will start at quarterback and has some experience backing up Hampton when he got injured earlier this season.  He completed 47-of-81 passes while also rushing for 165 yards on 33 carries for an average of 5.0 per carry.  They will ride Hoist on the ground a lot in this one, and I think it will be a very effective game plan against this soft Fresno State defense.  Bet Northern Illinois Monday.

20* Bucs/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 48

The Tampa Bay Bucs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL that not enough people are talking about so it flies under the radar.  The Bucs rank 4th in scoring at 28.8 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 388.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play.  They average 5.2 yards per rush and their ability to run the ball finally this season has opened everything up for Baker Mayfield.

That was on display last week as Mayfield and the Bucs dissected a very good Los Angeles Chargers defense for 506 total yards in a 40-17 victory.  They have rushed for at least 152 yards in four consecutive games and have thrown for at least 268 in three of those four to boot.  But this Bucs defense remains a problem ranking 27th in the league allowing 356.9 yards per game.  Injuries have been a big problem for them, and five starters are questionable on D this week.

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team as well especially when playing at home in the dome in perfect scoring conditions.  Dallas is allowing 33.4 points per game at home this season, so the Bucs are going to continue putting up big numbers offensively.  Injuries are a big problem for the Cowboys on defense.  They have five starters questionable, and they just recently lost two key starters in LB Overshown and CB Diggs.

But this Dallas offense continues to produce even with Cooper Rush at quarterback.  They are pretty healthy all around on offense, and he is utilizing his weapons nicely, plus the running game has gotten going averaging 183.5 rushing yards per game the last two weeks.  They put up 34 points on Washington, 27 on the Giants and 30 on the Panthers in three of their last four games with Rush at QB.  The OVER is 4-1 in Cowboys last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Jaguars/Raiders OVER 40

The Las Vegas Raiders get QB Aidan O'Connell back this week and he makes all the difference for this offense.  The last time he started he diced up a very good Kansas City Chiefs defense for 340 passing yards and two touchdowns three games ago.  He got hurt early two weeks ago in their loss to the Bucs, and they were dreadful on offense with Desmond Ridder in his place for the last six quarters.

But with O'Connell back, he should torch this Jacksonville defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Jaguars rank 28th in scoring defense allowing 26.9 points per game.  They are dead last (32nd) in total defense allowing 396.4 yards per game and dead last allowing 6.2 yards per play.  They are dead last against the pass allowing 264.3 yards per game.  Their defensive coordinator is stubborn and sticking to a man-heavy scheme that allows so many big plays.

Mac Jones had a big game last week for the Jaguars leading them to 25 points and 421 total yards.  He threw for 294 yards in that 32-25 loss to the Jets that saw 57 combined points.  He is relishing this opportunity as a starting QB again to try and redeem himself for what happened in New England.  He has much better weapons with the Jaguars and he is utilizing them.

The Raiders rank 27th in scoring defense allowing 26.9 points per game.  They have seven defenders on IR including their best player in DE Maxx Crosby.  I fully expect Jones to have success against them in what looks to be a shootout between two teams that don't have much to play for.  It will also be perfect conditions in the dome in Las Vegas, and this total of 40 is very low for an NFL game in a dome.  There's clearly value with the OVER here.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers ML +102

The San Francisco 49ers are the best 6-8 team in the history of the NFL.  They rank 8th in total offense averaging 365.1 yards per game and 4th at 6.4 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in total defense at 298.8 yards per game and 6th at 5.2 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 66.3 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play, which are some of the best margins in the entire NFL despite their 6-8 record.

I like the fact that the 49ers have extra rest here after playing the Rams last Thursday.  I also like the fact that the weather will be perfect in Miami because Brock Purdy struggled in the two recent games that were affected by weather with the snow in Buffalo and the rain against the Rams.

Miami's final stand to make the playoffs was last week.  The Dolphins fell flat on their faces in a 20-12 loss at Houston as 2.5-point dogs.  Now they are basically eliminated from playoff contention at 6-8 on the season.  I also question how much the Dolphins have left in the tank this week, and I don't expect them to show up at all.

The Dolphins will be playing for a 10th consecutive week after getting a bye early in the season.  Their last three games have really taken a lot out of them losing by 8 at Houston, beating the Jets by 6 in OT and losing by 13 at Green Bay.  Injuries are really starting to pile up for them, especially on offense.

The Dolphins lost WR Jaylen Waddle early in that loss to Houston last week.  It's no wonder they struggled so much on offense as Tua went 29-of-40 passing for 196 yards with one TD and 3 INT in the loss.  Waddle had really come to life the previous three games with 21 receptions for 298 yards and a TD, and they are going to be lost offensively without him again this week.  That's especially the case with WR Tyreke Hill questionable, and without fellow WR's Dee Eskride, Braxton Berrios and Grant Dubose.  They are extremely thin at WR to say the least, and both starting offensive tacklers in Armstead and Lamm are questionable after missing last week.

The 49ers have all of their weapons healthy on offense with the exception of RB, but they've proven they can work around injuries at the position.  LT Trent Williams remains out, but they have gotten much healthier on defense in recent weeks with DE Nick Bosa and LB Dre Greenlaw back in the lineup.  Their secondary is fully healthy and they held the Rams to just 12 points last week after holding the Bears to 13 points in a 38-13 win two weeks ago.  That was a 24-0 game at halftime before they called off the dogs in the 2H.  They will shut down Tua and this banged up Miami offense in this one as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Sunday.

25* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bills/Patriots OVER 46.5

The Buffalo Bills have now scored 30 or more points in eight consecutive games.  In their last two games alone, they put up 42 points and 445 total yards on the Rams and 48 points and 559 total yards against the Lions.  They are going to get to at least 30 again this week, and that's all we need to cash this OVER 46.5 ticket with the Patriots doing the rest.

The Patriots have been much better offensively with Drake Maye at quarterback. They keep coming for four quarters and actually do most of their damage in the 4th quarter, which I expect to be the case here once the Bills call off the dogs.

We saw it again last week with the Patriots tacking on two garbage TD's in the 4th to get the OVER 46.5 with 47 combined points with the Cardinals.  The week prior they put up 422 total yards in a 25-24 loss to the Colts for 49 combined points.  They combined for 49 points with the Dolphins the game prior thanks to two 4th quarter touchdowns.  And the week prior they lost 28-22 to the Rams for 50 combined points.

While the Bills are fully healthy on offense now, they are beat up on defense which is why they are being forced to win shootouts.  They allowed 44 points and 457 yards to the Rams two weeks ago and 42 points and 521 yards to the Lions last week.  The Patriots are also beat up defensively with five starters questionable heading into this one.  They have allowed 25 or more points in four consecutive games.

The OVER is 5-1 in Bills last six games overall with 50 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Patriots last four games overall with 47 or more combined points in all four games.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 48 or more combined points in five of those six.  There will be no wind or precipitation in Buffalo Sunday making conditions ripe for scoring even though it's going to be cold.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Lions/Bears OVER 47.5

The forecast looks good for a game in Chicago in December.  Temps will be in the 30's with only 10 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation.  That's why I'm not worried about the weather affecting the Lions and Jared Goff in this outdoor game.

The Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league.  They did just lose RB David Montgomery to injury, but not having him actually makes them more of an OVER team.  They have to throw more and backup RB Jamir Gibbs is more explosive and better at catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 14 defenders on IR alone.  And many of theym are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzelone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

They've been forced to try and win shootouts the last two weeks.  They accomplished it with a 34-31 win over Green Bay two weeks ago, but they couldn't get it done last week in a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills last week.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they know they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

The Bears look lost defensively since firing Matt Eberflus.  He was a big reason they were so good on defense to finish last season, and pretty good on defense in the first half this season.  But they have fallen off a cliff without him.  They allowed 38 points and 452 total yards to the 49ers in their first game without him two weeks ago.  They allowed 30 points and 329 yards to the Vikings last week.

I know the Bears haven't been thriving on offense, but they should have one of their best games of the season against this banged up Detroit stop unit.  This is a big step down in class after facing the 49ers and Vikings.  The Bears have had two of their best offensive outputs of the season in their last two home games.  They had 391 total yards against the Packers and 27 points and 398 total yards against the Vikings.  They are much more comfortable offensively at home.

These teams met on Thanksgiving in a game that should have been tied 23-23 at the end of regulation, but the Bears inexplicably let the clock run out in FG range.  That got Eberflus fired.  The Lions had 405 total yards and the Bears 301 in that game.  Given the current state of both these defenses, I think the offenses will shine even more in the rematch this weekend.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rams/Jets OVER 46.5

The New York Jets have really slipped defensively since firing head coach Robert Saleh.  They have also been hit hard by injuries on defense.  But offensively they are improving rapidly with Aaron Rodgers forming great chemistry with Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard in the passing game.  The Jets profile as an OVER team in their current form.

The OVER is 4-0 in Jets last four games overall with 47 or more combined points in all four games, including 55 or more in three of them.  The Jets have allowed at least 25 points in five consecutive games and an average of 28.4 points per game during this stretch.  They even gave up 25 points and 421 total yards to Mac Jones and the Jaguars last week.  They rank 31st in EPA per play and 30th in success rate on defense since Saleh left.

The Jets have scored at least 21 points in six of their last seven games overall.  They are averaging 26.5 points per game in their last four games.  The passing attack has really taken off the last two weeks with 319 passing yards against Miami and 275 against Jacksonville.

The Los Angeles Rams are going to get their points.  They are showing what they are capable of offensively with Stafford, Kupp, Nacua and Williams all healthy at the same time.  Now the Rams are expected to get TE Tyler Higbee back this week to make his season debut.

The Rams hung 44 points in an absolute shootout with the Bills two weeks ago that saw 86 combined points.  I think the fact that they are coming off a very low-scoring game against the 49ers last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  That game was played in sloppy conditions and neither offense could get anything going as a result.  Plus, they were very familiar with one another in a division game meeting for a 2nd time this season.

Now the Rams head out East against a team they are unfamiliar with in the Jets.  And I like OVERS much more in these non-conference games where teams don't see each other every year.  It makes the offenses much more difficult to prepare for.  I like the way both of these offenses are trending, I like that the Jets are giving up points in bunches and are extremely injured right now, and I think this Rams defense is overrated.

The Jets just put S Jalen Mills on IR, could be without CB Michael Carter II again, and their best defender in Quinnen Williams is dealing with a hamstring injury and missed practice on Wednesday.  I think the Rams can name their number here and the Jets will be able to keep pace in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Rams -2.5

The New York Jets have really slipped defensively since firing head coach Robert Saleh.  They have also been hit hard by injuries on defense.  The Jets have allowed at least 25 points in five consecutive games and an average of 28.4 points per game during this stretch.  They even gave up 25 points and 421 total yards to Mac Jones and the Jaguars last week. They rank 31st in EPA per play and 30th in success rate on defense since Saleh left.

The Jets just put S Jalen Mills on IR, could be without CB Michael Carter II again, and their best defender in Quinnen Williams is dealing with a hamstring injury and missed practice on Wednesday.  They were already without their most important defender in LB CJ Mosley, and they haven't been good since losing him and Saleh.  Saleh called the defense and Mosley was the one making those calls to the defense to get everyone where they're supposed to be.

The Los Angeles Rams are going to get their points.  They are showing what they are capable of offensively with Stafford, Kupp, Nacua and Williams all healthy at the same time.  Now the Rams are expected to get TE Tyler Higbee back this week to make his season debut.

The Rams hung 44 points on the Bills two weeks ago winning in a shootout.  They showed last week they could win a grinder upsetting the 49ers 12-6 on the road.  They outgained the 49ers 302 to 191 in rainy conditions and really controlled the game throughout.  They improved to 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall, quietly playing as well as almost anyone else in the NFL right now.

But the Rams cannot afford to take their foot off the gas this week.  They are tied with the Seahawks for first place in the division and only one game ahead of the Cardinals.  They also want to assure they get a wild card spot if they are unable to win the division.  Many are expecting them to letdown this week, but I'm not one of them given their current standing.

If anyone is going to have a letdown it's going to be the Jets.  They just ended a 4-game losing streak with a come from behind win over Mac Jones and the Jaguars in the final seconds last week.  This after losing three straight heartbreakers to the Colts by 1, the Seahawks by 5 and the Dolphins in OT.  I think the Jets will be the team that breathes a sigh of relief here.

The Rams have a big rest advantage after playing the 49ers last Thursday.  They get three extra days to prepare for this game.  They will be rested and ready to go, and they are fully healthy across the board.  The Jets are the tired team that has played four straight one-score games.  They are also beat up, especially on defense.  Getting Los Angeles as less than a FG favorite here is a gift.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Steelers/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -6

This is where the tough schedule that everyone talked about in the 2nd half of the season starts to catch up with the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They had their bye way back in Week 9 and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  They will also be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks here and are starting to wear down and get injured.

The Steelers lost 27-13 last week at Philadelphia.  The Eagles controlled that game and controlled the ball possessing it for 40 minutes, meaning the Steelers' defense was on the field for 40 minutes.  Thats' not good news now that they are on a short week.

The Eagles outgained the Steelers 401 to 163 for the game, or by 238 total yards.  They exposed the Steelers as frauds, and left them battered and bruised. TJ Watt was forced from the game with an ankle injury and won't be 100% even if he goes.  SS Elliott is doubtful, while DE Obunjobi and CB Jackson are questionable.  WR George Pickens means everything to them offensively, and he has already been ruled out again.  They have been lost without Pickens the last couple weeks as he has been Russell Wilson's go-to target, especially on deep balls.

The Ravens just finally had their bye in Week 14.  They came out of their bye and wrecked the New York Giants 35-14.  The Ravens are almost fully healthy now and certainly as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.  They are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL and I have them power-rated similar to Philadelphia, and I expect a similar beat down that the Eagles put on the Steelers last week.

Baltimore wants revenge from a 18-16 loss at Pittsburgh in a game in which Justin Tucker missed two field goals, and the Ravens committed three turnovers.  That's what it took just for the Steelers to squeak by them by 2 points.  I expect the Ravens to make the necessary corrections and for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season with the division on the line.

I think there's value in the line where you consider the Ravens were 3-point road favorites in that first meeting, and now are 6-point favorites in the rematch.  They have only adjusted it 3 points for flipping home fields, and it should be adjusted even more considering the Steelers are banged up and tired while the Ravens are fresh and healthy.  

The Ravens are so much better than the Steelers when you look at the numbers.  The Ravens are outgaining opponents by 85 yards per game and 1.4 yards per play, while the Steelers are only outgaining opponents by 9 yards per game and actually getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.  Bet the Ravens Saturday.

20* Clemson/Texas TNT No-Brainer on Clemson +12

No question Texas has an elite defense. But the Longhorns have struggled on offense ever since Quinn Ewers got hurt, and he still doesn't look right.  He fails to show up in big games and looked scared against Georgia and their backup QB in the SEC Championship Game.

Texas managed just 19 points against Georgia, 17 points against Texas A&M and 20 points against Arkansas in three of its final four games to close out the season.  If the Longhorns don't get to 30, which I don't think they will, it's going to be very hard for them to cover this 12-point spread.

Clemson played a tough schedule this season that included two SEC opponents in Georgia and South Carolina, so the Tigers won't be intimidated at all.  They will also be playing with a big chip on their shoulder because nobody thought they deserved to be here, and nobody plays the underdog role better than Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney.  He lives for situations like these.

Clemson put up 419 total yards on a very good South Carolina defense in their regular season finale.  They jumped out to a 24-7 halftime lead on SMU before taking their foot off the gas in the ACC Championship Game, but came up clutch with a game-winning FG in the final seconds.

I trust Clemson QB Cade Klubnik to make more plays than Ewers or whoever is under center for Texas.  Klubnik quietly had a fantastic season throwing for 3,303 yards with a 33-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 458 yards and seven scores.  Klubnik also has the mental advantage over Ewers after beating him 52-34 in the Texas Class 6A State Championship in high school.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* Indiana/Notre Dame ABC ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Hoosiers went 11-1 this season and flew under the radar all season.  They are flying under the radar again as 7.5-point underdogs to Notre Dame in the 12-team playoff.

Indiana ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 43.3 points per game and 6th in scoring defense at 14.7 points per game, outscoring opponents by 28.6 points per game on the season.  That is one of the best marks in the entire country.  They have no weaknesses and their numbers are elite across the board on both sides of the football.

Notre Dame also went 11-1 this season, but the Fighting Irish are getting much more credit heading into the 12-team playoff despite that only ranked 10 spots tougher than what Indiana faced.  The finished +26.2 points per game in scoring margin.

Notre Dame didn't have to face very many great offenses like Indiana this season.  When they did, they struggled against both Louisville and USC defending the pass.  They allowed 360 passing yards and 557 total yards to USC and 264 passing yards and 437 total yards to Louisville.

Notre Dame needs to be able to run the football to be successful, and Indiana is very stingy against the run.  Indeed, the Hoosiers rank 1st in the country allowing just 70.8 rushing yards per game and 2nd allowing 2.5 yards per rush.  Bet Indiana Friday.

20* Ohio/Jacksonville State Cure Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 54.5

The Ohio Bobcats will have everyone available for the Cure Bowl as of this writing just two days before the game against Jacksonville State on Friday.  Their offense really took off down the stretch leading them to the MAC Championship Game.

The Bobcats average 37.8 points per game during their six-game winning streak to close out the season.  And while I also like Ohio to win and cover, I like the OVER in this game more due to what Jacksonville State brings to the table on the other side.

Jacksonville State ranks 13th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds.  The Jaguars have a high-powered offense that ranks 12th in scoring this season at 36.7 points per game.  They should have almost all hands on deck on offense.

Rich Rodriquez left for West Virginia, but offensive coordinator Rod Smith will serve as the interim so they'll still have their entire playbook on offense.  The same can be said for Ohio, where Tom Albin left for Charlotte, but offensive coordinator Brian Smith is the interim coach.  I love OVERS in bowl games when offensive coordinators take over as the interim, and we are getting that with both teams here.

Perhaps the biggest reason I'm on the OVER is because Jacksonville State has so many of their best defenders in the transfer portal, and last year players in the portal did not play for the Gamecocks.  They could be without S Zechariah Pyser (led defense in snaps), OLB Reginald Hughes (best pass rusher), S Fred Perry (1st-team C-USA), starting CB Jabari Mack and starting CB Fred Davis.  The only starter on offense in the portal is WR Cam Vaughn.

The forecast at Camping World Stadium in Orlando looks perfect for a shootout Friday.  Temps will be in the 70's with less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Broncos/Chargers AFC West ANNIHILATOR on OVER 41

Bo Nix and this Denver offense are rolling right now.  The Broncos have now scored 28 or more points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  They are averaging 27.4 points per game in their last 10 games with one of the most underrated offenses in the league.  A big reason for their success is playing much faster so Nix can make quick decisions.  The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in pace since Week 4.

The Broncos allowed 32 points and 554 total yards to Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns two games ago.  They allowed 369 yards to the Raiders the game before.  And last week they should have allowed more points to the Colts, but Jonathan Taylor let the ball go inches from the goal line to celebrate early and cost the Colts a TD.  The Colts moved the ball up and down the field on the Broncos.  They haven't been nearly as strong since losing starting CB Riley Moss to injury, and he remains out.  And now fellow CB Patrick Surtain II was noticeably limping getting injured late in that Colts game.  While he is expected to play, he will be hobbled.

The Chargers can take advantage of this vulnerable Denver secondary with their more pass-heavy approach since losing RB JK Dobbins to injury.  They have their full compliment of receivers all healthy right now which is big for Justin Herbert.  That's with the exception of TE Will Dissly, but TE Hayden Hurst has been activated from IR to take his place this week, so there should be no drop off at the position.  The Broncos are also fully healthy on offense.

The OVER is 4-0 in Chargers last four home games combining for 44 points with Tennessee, 61 with Cincinnati, 53 with Baltimore and 57 with Tampa Bay.  So this total of 41 is very low for a Chargers home game based on recent results.

The Chargers' defense has been exposed in recent weeks by better offenses, allowing 27 points to Cincinnati, 30 to Baltimore and 40 and a whopping 506 total yards to the Bucs last week.  Injuries are a big reason they couldn't stop the Bucs and won't be able to stop the Broncos tonight.  The Chargers will be without starting CB Cam Hart and starting FS Elijah Molden, and both starting NT Otito Ogbonnia and LB Denzel Perryman are questionable.  They have five defenders on IR as well.

The Broncos and their opponents have combined for at least 42 points in seven of thier last eight games overall.  That makes for a 7-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 41-point total.  The OVER is 7-2-1 in Broncos last 10 games overall as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Cal/UNLV LA Bowl No-Brainer on UNLV PK

The UNLV Rebels went 10-3 this season with their losses coming to Boise State (twice) and Syracuse in OT.  Seven of their 10 wins came by double-digits as they were dominant against everyone else.

Syracuse is a common opponent, and Cal lost 33-25 at home to the Orange.  The Bears were outgained 471 to 391 by the Orange, or by 80 yards.

Cal will be without starting QB Fernando Mendoza, who is completing 68.7% of his passes on the season for 3,004 yards.  They could be without backup QB Chandler Rogers, who got hurt in their finale in a 38-6 loss at SMU.  It's no surprise Cal's worse performance of the season came without its starting QB in Mendoza. Plus, offensive coordinator Mike Bloesch is gone, and they will have a collaboration of staff calling plays.

Despite losing head coach Barry Odom, morale is still very high at UNLV with one of the best hires of the offseason in Dan Mullen.  Almost everyone for UNLV is expected to play, including two of their best defensive players in LB Jackson Woodard and CB Tony Grimes.  I think this team is on a mission to finish the Odom era strong as this is one of the most closely-knit teams in the country.  I expect them to get the job done against Cal and possibly a 3rd-string QB.  

It's also worth noting Cal leading receiver Nzyiah Hunter is in the transfer portal.  RB Jaivian Thomas sat out the last game against SMU with an injure.  LT Nick Morrow missed the finale and won't play in the bowl.  Starting LB Sioape Vatikani is questionable, as is starting MLB Cade Uluave, who missed the final three games.  

The Rebels haven't won a bowl game since 2000.  This group of players has accomplished a lot, but they want to put a stamp on it with their first bowl win in 24 years before many of them graduate or depart for different schools next season.  Bet UNLV in the LA Bowl Wednesday.

15* NFL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bears/Vikings OVER 43.5

The Chicago Bears fired head coach Eberflus last week and he clearly wasn't the problem.  They allowed 319 yards in the first half alone to the 49ers trailing 24-0 against a 49ers offense that hasn't been all that good in recent weeks due to injuries.  They lost 38-13.

We have seen something similar in New York as the Jets have been terrible defensively since firing Robert Saleh.  He was the mastermind of their defense that was a Top 5 unit since he has been there.  Eberflus has done the same in Chicago as they were one of the best defenses in the NFL last season and have been pretty good again this season under his watch.

Like the Jets, the Bears have focused on turning around their offense as a priority the rest of the season.  They took the Lions to the wire and should have won two weeks ago but the gaffe with letting the clock run out in the final seconds cost them at least a shot at OT.

We saw three weeks ago the Bears go toe to toe with the Vikings in a 30-27 (OT) shootout.  The Vikings had 452 total yards while the Bears finished with 398 total yards, and that game was played outdoors in the conditions in Chicago.  This rematch will be played indoors on a fast track.

Sam Darnold is playing at an MVP level, throwing 5 touchdown passes with three to Addison and two to Jefferson last week in a 42-21 home win over the Falcons that saw 63 combined points.  He is completing 68.4% of his passes with a 28-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the season, and he has enviable weapons in those two plus RB Jones and TE Hockenson that are just so tough to tame.

The Vikings rank 7th in the NFL averaging 6.1 yards per play on offense and I think they can pretty much name their number against this soft Chicago defense that allowed 38 points to the 49ers last week.  But the Vikings have really slipped defensively in recent weeks, giving up 398 yards to the Bears, 406 yards to the Cardinals and 496 yards to the Falcons in their last three games.  Chicago will do enough to help get this one up and OVER this 43.5-point total, which is below the keys of 44 and 45.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bears/Vikings ABC No-Brainer on Minnesota -6.5

The Chicago Bears fired head coach Eberflus last week and he clearly wasn't the problem.  A lot of money poured in on the Bears moving them all the way down to +3 against the 49ers and it couldn't have been more wrong.  The Bears were outgained 319 to 4 in total yards by the 49ers in the first half alone in a 38-13 road loss.

The Bears sit at 4-9 on the season and eliminated from playoff contention.  I don't expect them to put forth much of a better effort this week against the Vikings, either.  I do expect the Vikings to show up considering they sit at 11-2 just one game behind the Lions for first place in the division and possibly the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

The Vikings are 6-0 in their last six games overall and coming off a 42-21 home win over the Falcons.  That was a Falcons team coming off their bye week so putting them away that easily in the 4th quarter was quite impressive.  Now the Vikings get some extra rest here with this being a Monday Night Football game and they need it.

The Vikings have managed to stay remarkably healthy this season and they should be at full strength this week if CB Stephon Gilmore returns after missing the Atlanta game.  Sam Darnold is playing at an MVP level, throwing 5 touchdown passes with three to Addison and two to Jefferson last week.  He is completing 68.4% of his passes with a 28-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the season, and he has enviable weapons in those two plus RB Jones and TE Hockenson that are just so tough to tame.

The Bears are getting too much respect here because they took the Vikings to OT in a 30-27 home loss a few weeks ago.  But that was a misleading final.  They were down 14 going into the 4th quarter and needed a TD with 22 seconds left to cut it to 3, and an onside kick to get the game-tying FG.  That's the kind of luck it's going to take again for the Bears to just be competitive.

And while the Bears have been competitive at home this season, it has been a different story on the road.  The Bears are 0-6 SU in true road games this season getting outscored by an average of 10.3 points per game.  The Vikings are 5-1 SU at home this season outscoring opponents by 10.2 points per game with their lone loss coming to Detroit by 2. I'm expecting Minnesota to win this game by double-digits tonight.  

Home teams playing their 3rd consecutive home game against road teams playing their 3rd consecutive road game are 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 tries in the NFL.  This is a great spot for Minnesota and a terrible one for Chicago.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Broncos OVER 44

Most wouldn't know it, but the Broncos rank 1st in pace since Week 6 while the Colts rank 4th in pace during that same time frame.  So this game is going to see a ton of possessions and more scoring opportunities as a result.

Bo Nix and this Denver offense are rolling right now.  The Broncos have now scored 28 or more points in six of their last nine games overall.  They are averaging 27.0 points per game in their last nine games with one of the most underrated offenses in the league.  They are scoring at will against bad teams, and now they face another bad team with a bad defense in the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts have allowed at least 21 points in six consecutive games.  Perhaps there was no worse effort than allowing 24 points and 422 total yards to the Patriots in their last game.  But the offense has been better with Anthony Richardson, who has led them to game-winning drives two of their last three games in a 28-27 wino over the Jets and a 25-24 win over the Patriots. The Broncos allowed 32 points and 554 total yards to Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns last time out.

These teams are battling for a wild card spot in the AFC.  I think whoever is behind will keep coming and the scoring will continue for four quarters.  These games against playoff contenders late in the season tend to be higher scoring because of it.  

And the forecast for a game in Denver in December looks fantastic for a shootout.  Temps will be in the 50's with only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Both teams look fully healthy on offense with the Colts getting star WR Josh Downs back from injury this week.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Commanders -7

I love the spot for the Washington Commanders this week.  The Commanders got a much-needed bye week.  They had lost three straight before blowing out the Titans 42-19 going into their bye week.  Now they come out of their bye refocused, healthy and motivated to make a playoff run.

Jayden Daniels was banged up with a rib injury for a few games, but he looked more like the Daniels that was the Rookie of the Year favorite through the first half of the season in his last two games.  The Commanders put up 412 total yards on the Cowboys two games ago and 463 total yards on the Titans last game, and that's a very good Tennessee defense.

While the Commanders are 8-5 this season, the Saints sit at 5-8 with almost no chance of making the playoffs.  That's especially the case with all of the injuries they are dealing with right now.  They haven't been the same since losing Taysom Hill and their three best receivers, and now they are going to be without QB Derek Carr after suffering a broken hand late last week.  RB Kamara and TE Johnson are questionable as well.

We saw just how bad the Saints were earlier this season when they were without Carr.  They lost 51-27 at home to Tampa Bay, 33-10 at home to Denver and 26-8 to the Chargers on the road in their three games without Carr.  They were outscored by a total of 65 points in those three games or by an average of 21.7 points per game.  They were outgained by the lowly Giants last week even with Carr.

One hidden factor here is that the Commanders are going to activate CB Marshon Lattimore this week.  He will make his Washington debut after being traded prior to the deadline.  He knows the Saints schemes inside and out, and getting two weeks to prepare for the Saints will give Lattimore plenty of time to feed the coaching staff all the info they need to take advantage.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns +5

The Kansas City Chiefs are 15-0 in their last 15 one-score games dating back to last season. That is simply remarkable, and it's as much luck as it is skill.  But the Chiefs just find a way to keep winning close games.  At some point their luck is going to run out.

The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall with each of their last four wins coming by 3 points or fewer.  Their offense is broken, and their defense is very shaky in the secondary.  I think the Cleveland Browns can take advantage at home this week.

The Browns are coming off two misleading road losses to the Broncos and Steelers that has created some line value for us to back them at home this week.  The Browns outgained the Broncos 552 to 400 in a 41-32 loss and outgained the Steelers 300 to 267 in a 27-14 loss.

But we saw what the Browns could do at home pulling off outright upsets over the Steelers 24-19 as 3.5-point dogs in their last home game and upsetting the Ravens 29-24 as 7.5-point dogs three home games ago.  They know they are capable, and I think they will be looking forward to this opportunity to try and knock off the defending champs this week.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Dolphins/Texans OVER 47

The Miami Dolphins have been an offensive juggernaut since getting Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback.  They have scored at least 23 points in six of his seven starts since returning.  The only exception was the 17 they scored against the Packers two weeks ago in freezing temps, but they deserved to score more with 375 total yards.

This Miami defense has slipped in recent weeks.  They allowed 24 first half points to the Packers two weeks ago before taking their foot off the gas in a 30-17 win.  They allowed 26 points and 402 total yards to the Jets last week and it was Aaron Rodgers' first 300-yard passing game since becoming a Jet.

The Houston Texans needed a bye to regroup.  Their offense has produced at least 22 points in nine of its last 10 games, but it just hasn't been as sharp as it was last season.  I think the Texans will have some new wrinkles offensively for Miami to spark their offense and get CJ Stroud going heading into the stretch run.

Injuries and suspensions are a real problem for the Texans defensively.  LB Al-Shaair is facing a three-game suspension for his hit on Trevor Lawrence going into the bye.  DT Fatukasi, DE Autry and S Pitre are all questionable or out.  This is a big step up in class for a Houston defense that has gotten to face the Cowboys, Titans and Jaguars the last three weeks.

Both teams are in the playoff hunt so there won't be any quit in the second half by either team.  Look for whoever is behind to keep coming and to get this thing up and OVER the total early into the 4th quarter.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers ML -125

The Carolina Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They went toe-to-toe with three of the better teams in the NFL in the Chiefs, Bucs and Eagles the last three weeks.  They lost on a last-second FG to the Chiefs, lost in OT to the Bucs and dropped a potential game-winning TD against the Eagles in the final seconds last week.  Bryce Young made all the plays he had to down the stretch of those three games to put his team in position to win.

With a first-year head coach and a motivated QB in Young, the Panthers will keep battling.  They are hungry for a win and I think they get it this week against a team they can handle in the Dallas Cowboys.  This is a terrible spot for the Cowboys, whose loss to the Bengals on Monday Night Football pretty much eliminated them from playoff contention.

So the Cowboys are now on a short week after playing on Monday and dealing with the 'dream crusher' scenario, which is that first game after having their dreams crushed.  I saw Micah Parsons walk off the field in disgust last week, and that's not a good look for the leader of this team.

A lot of that disgust was the injury to LB DeMarvion Overshown, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the loss to the Bengals.  He was quickly becoming Dallas' most impactful defender, and his loss is a huge blow.  Injuries are piling up with LB Vigil, CB Diggs and S Lewis all questionable on defense, plus C Beebe now questionable after suffering a concussion.  RG Zack Martin is already on IR.

I like the mindset of the Panthers much more than that of the Cowboys heading into this game.  They are favored for the first time in 33 games for good reason here.  Bet the Panthers on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Rams/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco ML -140

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the best below .500 teams in the history of the NFL through 13 games.  They rank 4th in the NFL in total offense at 378.5 yards per game and 2nd at 6.5 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in total defense at 298.5 yards per game and 5th at 5.3 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 80 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play, which is elite.

The 49ers had a team meeting Saturday night prior to their game against the Chicago Bears.  It led to one of their best performances of the season, jumping out to a 24-0 halftime lead while outgaining the Bears 319 yards to 4 yards for Chicago at that point.

The nature of the blowout allowed the 49ers to coast in the 2H, which will keep them much fresher for this Thursday night game on a short week.  The Rams don't have the same luxury.  They were in a 60-minute war with the Bills last week in a 44-42 shootout win.  I suspect the Rams won't have much left in the tank for the 49ers this week as a result.

San Francisco wants revenge from a 27-24 road loss to the Rams in their first meeting this season.  They outgained the Rams 425 to 296, or by 129 total yards.  They blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead in defeat.  They have not forgotten, and I expect them to take out their frustration on the Rams this week.

Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers own Sean McVay and the Rams.  The 49ers are 9-3 SU in the last 12 meetings with the three losses coming by a combined 7 points.  Six of the nine wins have come by 7 points or more.  Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Bengals/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Monday night in perfect conditions in the dome in Arlington.  This thing has shootout written all over it when the Dallas Cowboys host the Cincinnati Bengals.

The OVER is 9-3 in the Bengals 12 games this season with 51 or more combined points in nine of those 12 games.  Joe Burrow leads an offense that ranks 6th in scoring at 27.9 points per game.  The problem is the Bengals have lost three times this season in which they have scored at least 30 points because they have a dreadful defense.

The Bengals rank 31st in scoring defense allowing 28.3 points per game.  Their defense was just shredded for 44 points and 520 total yards by the Pittsburgh Steelers, who aren't known for having a very good offense.  They looked like they quit on that side of the ball last week, which says a lot going up against a division rival.

The Cowboys rank 29th in scoring defense allowing 28.2 points per game.  The OVER is 5-1 in Dallas' six home games this season.  The Cowboys have allowed an average of 34.5 points per game at home this season.  Burrow and company are going to be able to do whatever they want against this defense.

The Cowboys have been surprisingly effective on offense since Cooper Rush took over, especially the last two weeks.  They put up 34 points on the Commanders two weeks ago and 27 points on the Giants last week.  The Cowboys also just got No. 2 receiver Brandin Cooks back last week from injury to take some of the pressure off of CeeDee Lamb.  I'm expecting Rush's best performance of the season against this soft Cincinnati defense.

The OVER is 8-4 in all Dallas games this season with 47 or more combined points in eight of those 12 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals ML -145

I love the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  They will be playing with revenge in mind after losing 16-6 in poor weather in Seattle in their first meeting just two weeks ago.  The Seahawks had a 69-yard pick 6, which was the difference in the game as the stats were pretty even otherwise.

Arizona lost 23-22 at Minnesota last week in a game they deserved to win, but went 1-for-6 scoring touchdowns in the red zone.  The Cardinals outgained the Vikings 406 to 273 for the game, or by 133 total yards.  The Vikings hadn't been manhandled by a team like that all season, so it just goes to show how good this Arizona team is right now.

The Cardinals trail the Seahawks by one game in the division, and they can't afford a loss because they would not only fall two games back, but it would essentially be three games because they would lose the tiebreaker.  I expect an 'all in' effort from the Cardinals this week, and it will be good enough to get the win.

The Cardinals are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games beating the Chargers 17-15 as 1-point dogs, beating the Bears 29-9 as 2-point favorites and crushing the Jets 31-6 as 2-point dogs.  They outgained the Bears 350 to 241, or by 109 yards.  They outgained the Jets 406 to 207, or by 199 yards.

Seattle is getting a lot of respect for a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS stretch in their last three games overall.  They came from behind to beat the 49ers 20-17 off their bye week.  But the 49ers went on to lose by 28 to the Packers and by 25 to the Bills.  They beat the Cardinals 16-6, but they were outgained by the Cardinals and benefited from a pick-6, which was the difference.  And last week they struggled to put away the Jets 26-21, a game that turned on a pick-6 by Aaron Rodgers after nearly going up 21 the play before missing a wide open receiver in the end zone.

This is a tough spot for the Seahawks with a lot of travel involved.  After flying out to New York, now they have to fly back home to Seattle, and then fly back out to Arizona in this back-to-back road trip.  That's about as much travel as you will ever see for one team in two weeks.  I think the Seahawks are 'fat and happy' right now, knowing they can afford a loss since taking over first place in the NFC West.

The Cardinals have faced the single-toughest schedule in the NFL this season.  The Seahawks have faced the 17th-ranked schedule.  Yet Arizona has the better numbers to this point.  The Cardinals are outgaining opponents by 12.5 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play, while the Seahawks are only outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per game and 0.1 yards per play.  Bet the Cardinals on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Steelers OVER 44

The Browns are definitely an OVER team with Jameis Winston at quarterback.  He has played well for the most part but he is almost as likely to throw a costly INT that lead to easy points to the opposition as he is to throw a TD pass.  This offense has been opened up big time with Winston at QB.

It started with a 29-24 win over the Ravens as Winston threw for 334 yards and 3 TD in the win.  After a clunker with 3 INT against the Chargers, Winston threw for another 395 yards and 2 TD against the Saints.  Their defense was exposed in that game allowing 473 total yards to the Saints.  Winston led the 24-19 comeback in the snow against the Steelers two weeks ago.

But last week was the ultimate Winston game.  The Browns lost 41-32 at Denver for 73 combined points. The Browns had no business losing that game as they outgained the Broncos 562 to 400.  But the difference was not one but two pick 6's by Winston.  He threw for 497 yards and 4 TD with 3 INT in defeat.  He had a ton of amazing throws that only he can do, but also the bonehead throws that we have become accustomed to.

Cleveland has six defenders on IR, two out, and another questionable in S Thornhill.  They suffered more injuries last week against Denver, and this defense just hasn't been as good since trading away DE Smith to Detroit.  Myles Garrett can now be double-teamed, and the Steelers can focus their attention on him.

Speaking of shootouts, the Steelers beat the Bengals 44-38 last week for 82 combined points.  Russell Wilson had one of the best games of his career throwing for 414 yards and 3 TD with one INT against the Bengals.  I expect him to light up this soft Cleveland defense as well.

The OVER is 4-1 in Winston's five starts this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's last seven games overall as the Steelers have been much more of an OVER team with Wilson's ability to use the entire field with the deep ball.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jets/Dolphins OVER 44.5

The New York Jets have really slipped defensively since Robert Saleh was fired.  They have allowed at least 23 points in seven of their last eight games.  They have allowed 25 or more points in five of their last six games, including 26 to the Seahawks, 28 to the Colts and 31 to the Cardinals in their last three games coming in.

Things are getting worse before they get better for the Jets defensively now.  They just placed LB CJ Mosley on IR, and CB Sauce Gardner is doubtful to play Sunday after suffering an injury last week.  That's two of their best defenders they will be without.

The Jets have been able to move the football and score some points with Aaron Rodgers throwing to Devante Adams and Garrett Wilson.  They have scored 21 or more points in four of their last five games.  Now Rodgers gets his security blanket in Allen Lazard back from IR this week to give him another weapon.

The Dolphins have been an offensive juggernaut since getting Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback.  They have scored at least 23 points in five of his six starts since returning.  The only exception was the 17 they scored against the Packers last week in freezing temps, but they deserved to score more with 375 total yards.

The Dolphins lost key defenders in that 30-17 loss to the Packers last week and those same guys are either questionable, hobbled or out this week.  They allowed 24 first half points to the Packers, who were able to take their foot off the gas after intermission with the game in hand.

The OVER is 4-0 in Miami's last four home games combining for 49 points with New England, 53 with Las Vegas and 55 with Arizona in the last three.  The forecast looks great for another shootout with temps in the 70's, no precipitation and less than 10 MPH winds in Miami.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* ISU/ASU Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on Iowa State +2.5

I could see this game listed at a PK if both teams were fully healthy.  But Arizona State lost one of its best players in WR Jordyn Tyson late in the win over Arizona last week, and now he is out for the season.  The Cyclones should be favored with no Tyson for ASU.

Tyson has 75 receptions for 1,101 yards and 10 TD for the Sun Devils this season.  In the last six games alone, Tyson has 50 receptions for 732 yards and 6 TD.  He leads the nation in receiving over the last nine weeks and just had 8 receptions for 143 yards against Arizona last week.

"What makes it more difficult is obviously he demands two people to cover him," head coach Kenny Dillingham said after praising the receiver for his run-blocking abilities. "So if people don't have to allocate two people, then they can load the box. So you got to find more creative ways to win those one-one-one matchups".

The two players tied for second on the team in targets aren't even wide receivers.  They are RB Cam Skattebo (35 receptions, 468 yards) and TE Chamon Metayer (28 receptions, 285 yards).  Both have 41 targets this season.

Iowa State's game plan was already going to be to load the box and try and stop Skattebo.  Their job gets 10X easier now knowing they don't have to deal with Tyson on the outside.  The Cyclones will load up to stop Skattebo, and I don't think QB Leavitt can beat them without Tyson.

Dillingham has done a tremendous job getting Arizona State to the Big 12 Championship despite being picked to finish last by the media.  This season is a success no matter what happens in this game.  I think the mentality is different for Matt Campbell and Iowa State.

Campbell has stated Big 12 Championships are the standard.  The Cyclones have come close in recent seasons and come up short to Oklahoma and Texas.  They no longer have to deal with those juggernauts and now have a golden opportunity to finally get that first elusive Big 12 championship, and I trust Campbell and company to make the right calls to make it happen against a team they can handle in ASU.  

Common opponents tell the story here which team is better.  Iowa State and Arizona State have six common opponents.  They are both 4-2 SU against them.  But the Cyclones have outgained those six teams by an average of 47 yards per game, while the Sun Devils have been outgained by 17 yards per game against those same six teams.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

25* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on UNLV +4.5

UNLV was at a huge disadvantage the first time they played Boise State back on October 25th.  They were on a short week while Boise State was coming off a bye week playing on a Friday night.  The Rebels gave the Broncos everything they wanted in a 29-24 loss as 4-point dogs.

There were some takeaways from that game that make me believe the Rebels can pull off the upset in the rematch.  For starters, the Rebels held Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty to 128 rushing yards on 33 carries, an average of just 3.9 yards per carry.  That 3.9 yards per carry was the lowest Jeanty averaged against any opponent all season.

UNLV could have easily packed it in after that loss to Boise State.  Instead, the Rebels have gone 4-0 since to put themselves back in position to make the 12-team playoff.  They are in a 'win and in' scenario now, and I think they are ready to finally take the leap and prove they belong.

Boise State has been fortunate not to get knocked off here down the stretch.  They beat Nevada 28-21 as 23.5-point home favorites four games ago.  They were outgained 483 to 456 by San Jose State in a misleading final three weeks ago.  They escaped with a 17-13 win at Wyoming as 22.5-point favorites two weeks ago.  And they failed to cover in a 34-18 home win over Oregon State as 17.5-point favorites last week.  They really should be 0-4 ATS in their last four games.

Holding Jeanty to 3.9 per carry was no fluke as UNLV is elite at stopping the run.  The Rebels rank 10th in the country allowing 101.1 rushing yards per game and 15th allowing 3.2 per carry this season.  And that's why this is such a great matchup for the Rebels because the Broncos need to be able to run the ball to be effective because QB Maddux Madsen and the passing game is the weakness.  

He only completing 45% of his passes against Nevada, 53.8% against Wyoming and 51.5% against Oregon State in three of his past four games.  UNLV has far and away the better QB in Hajj-Malik Williams.  He has a 17-to-4 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 768 yards and 9 TD on 5.9 per carry this season.  I trust Williams to make more plays than Maddux in the rematch.  Bet UNLV Friday.

25* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNLV/Boise State UNDER 59.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  After meeting in the MWC Championship Game last season, and meeting once in the regular season this season, this will be the 3rd meeting between UNLV and Boise State in a year.  It's safe to say they know each other inside and out, and that really favors defense.

The matchup also sets up well for an UNDER.  Both teams rely heavily on running the football which keeps the clock moving.  Well, the strength of both defenses is stopping the run.  That was the takeaway from Boise State's 29-24 win in the first meeting this season that saw just 53 combined points.

The Rebels held Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty to 128 rushing yards on 33 carries, an average of just 3.9 yards per carry.  That 3.9 yards per carry was the lowest Jeanty averaged against any opponent all season. Holding Jeanty to 3.9 per carry was no fluke as UNLV is elite at stopping the run.  The Rebels rank 10th in the country allowing 101.1 rushing yards per game and 15th allowing 3.2 per carry this season.

UNLV also needs to be able to run the ball to be effective on offense.  The Rebels rank 4th in the country in rushing averaging 254.1 yards per game but just 116th in passing at 179.9 yards per game.  Well, Boise State ranks 17th in the country against the run allowing just 106.6 rushing yards per game.  The Broncos are also 19th allowing just 3.4 yards per carry.

That first meeting between UNLV and Boise State was played in a dome in Las Vegas on a fast track and still only saw 53 combined points.  The rematch will be outdoors in the cold at Boise State with temps in the 30's Friday night.  I don't think that is being factored into this line enough, and a total of 59.5 is way too high for the rematch.

UNLV and its opponents have gone for 58 or fewer combined points in five of its last six games.  Boise State and its opponents have gone for 53 or fewer points in five of its last seven games.  Boise State ranks 89th in tempo while UNLV ranks 78th, so both are well into the bottom half of the country in terms of seconds in between snaps on offense.  Both defenses will have their way.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Tulane/Army AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 47.5

No game this season will be played at a slow pace than this AAC Championship Game.  Army ranks dead last (134th) in tempo snapping the ball every 33.9 seconds.  Tulane ranks 131st snapping the ball every 30.1 seconds.  There won't be many possessions in this game, and thus there won't be many opportunities for points.

Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is elite at stopping the triple-option.  He faced Army twice the last two years while at Troy and beat them 19-0 in 2023 and 10-9 in 2022.  He beat Navy 35-0 this season a couple weeks ago at Tulane.  So Sumrall has held the triple-option teams to a combined 9 points in three meetings over the last three seasons, or an average of 3.0 points per game.

Both offenses need to be able to run the ball to be effective, and both defenses are great at stopping the run.  Tulane averages 212.9 rushing yards per game, and Army only allows 103.0 rushing yards per game.  Army averages 312.5 rushing yards per game, and Tulane only allows 124.2 rushing yards per game.  Tulane held Navy to 100 rushing yards on 35 attempts and 113 total yards in that 35-0 victory.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Packers/Lions NFC North No-Brainer on OVER 51

Note: I also like the Packers +3.5, but I like the OVER 51 more and didn't want to release both.  Consider the Packers +3.5 as a free pick.

The Detroit Lions are decimated by injuries on defense right now.  They lost their best player in Aidan Hutchinson, their best LB in Alex Anzalone and now they lost another starting LB in Malcolm Rodriquez last week.

But that's not where the injuries stop.  They have 11 defenders on IR and another three questionable in DT DJ Reader, DE Josh Paschal and DT Levi Onwuzurike.  Their front seven as currently constructed is one of the worst in the NFL.

We saw the Bears make a big comeback on them in the 2H last week when all these defenders went out with injuries.  The Bears scored all 20 of their points in the 2H.  I think the Packers are going to hang a big number on them Thursday.

Jordan Love is back healthy and in a groove.  He led the Packers to 38 points against the 49ers and followed it up with 30 points against the Dolphins, both at home in cold weather.  Now he gets to go indoors and face this hobbled Lions defense, so you can only imagine what he is going to do to them.

The Packers look fully healthy on offense with everyone listed as questionable already getting in limited practices as of Tuesday, but defensively they could be without LB Edgerrin Cooper, LB Isaiah McDuffie and CB Jaire Alexander.  Cooper still hasn't practiced this week as of Tuesday.

Detroit ranks 1st in scoring offense at 31.9 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 395.2 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play.  Green Bay ranks 3rd in total offense at 382.8 yards per game, so this is a matchup of two of the top three offenses in the NFL in total offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Browns/Broncos ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 42

Bo Nix and this Denver offense are rolling right now.  The Broncos have now scored 28 or more points in five of their last eight games overall.  They are scoring at will against bad teams, and now they face another bad team in the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns are definitely an OVER team with Jameis Winston at quarterback.  He has played well for the most part but he is almost as likely to throw a costly INT that lead to easy points to the opposition as he is to throw a TD pass.  This offense has been opened up big time with Winston at QB.

It started with a 29-24 win over the Ravens as Winston threw for 334 yards and 3 TD in the win.  After a clunker with 3 INT against the Chargers, Winston threw for another 395 yards and 2 TD against the Saints.  Their defense was exposed in that game allowing 473 total yards to the Saints.  Winston led the 24-19 comeback in the snow against the Steelers last Thursday.

Injuries are a big problem for this Cleveland defense right now. They have five players on IR and another two players listed as out.  They traded DE Smith to the Lions and they just haven't been as good at getting after the QB without him as teams can focus all their attention on stopping Myles Garrett.  The Broncos are fully healthy on offense, but they just lost starting CB Riley Moss to injury last week, and I expect Winston to target his replacement.

The forecast looks great for a December game in Denver with no wind, no precipitation and temperatures approaching 40.  The way these two teams are trending with improved offenses and banged up defenses, I think this total of 42 is too low.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Texans/Jaguars OVER 43

The Houston Texans are becoming more of an OVER team in recent weeks with all of their injuries on defense, plus getting their best playmaker in WR Nico Collins back from injury.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 49 points with Detroit, 44 points with Dallas and 59 points with Tennessee.

We saw how poor a shape their defense was in last week when they allowed Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans to hang 32 points on them.  Tennessee had previously topped 20 points only once all season.  Five starters for the Texans are either questionable or out in DE Will Anderson, DT Fatukasi, LB Al-Shaair, S Ward and NB Pitre.  DE Denico Autry is also questionable.

Jacksonville is likely to get Trevor Lawrence back from injury this week, which is why this line has gone down and this total has gone up.  He got in a limited practice this week and feels good coming off a bye week.  This Jacksonville offense is night and day better with Lawrence at quarterback.  Otherwise they are pretty much fully healthy on offense coming out of their bye.

The Jaguars have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They rank 30th in scoring at 28.7 points per game allowed, dead last 32nd in total defense at 413.7 yards per game and dead last 32nd at 6.3 yards per play.  Their changed schemes this season going to almost exclusively man-to-man, and they give up a lot of big plays because they don't have the players to run that scheme.

Houston just got Nico Collins back from injury two weeks ago, and it's no surprise the Texans have come through with two of their best offensive performances of the season.  They hung 34 points on Dallas and 27 on a very good Tennessee defense.  I think they can do the heavy lifting here, and the Jaguars will do enough to get us up and OVER this 43-point total.  The Texans and Jaguars have combined for at least 44 points in seven of their last nine meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Chargers/Falcons OVER 47.5

The Los Angeles Chargers have been an under team this season and they do have a great defense.  However, they have benefited from facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL through the first 10 weeks.  They faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis in the first 10 weeks.  Mahomes was missing many of his key weapons.

We saw what the Chargers defense was against two high-powered offenses in Cincinnati and Baltimore.  They won a 34-27 shootout and gave up 452 total yards to the Bengals, including 356 passing and 3 TD from Burrow.  They lost a 30-23 shootout with the Ravens while allowing 389 total yards, including 212 rushing.

The Chargers are showing what they are capable of offensively when they are basically fully healthy.  They put up 26 points on the Saints and weren't pressed so they took their foot off the gas late in that game.  They put up 27 points on the Browns on the road and 27 points on the Titans at home.  Those are two very underrated defenses.  They put up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Bengals, and 23 points against the Ravens.

Now the Chargers face another dead nuts OVER team in the Atlanta Falcons with a great offense and terrible, banged up defense.  The Falcons rank 8th in total offense at 361.5 yards per game and 9th at 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 25th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game and 24th in total defense at 357.1 yards per game.  

The Falcons are fully healthy on offense, but they are dealing with a plethora of injuries on defense even coming out of their bye week.  They have the worst pass rush in the NFL, so Herbert should have all day to throw it.  The Chargers will be without RB JK Dobbins, but they have been pass-heavy in recent weeks and will be even more pass-heavy in this game with the matchup in their favor against this horrid Atlanta pass defense.  The Chargers are beat up on defense missing 4 players in the secondary, LB Denzel Perryman and possibly LB Daiyan Henley.  They also have three LB's on IR.

The Chargers are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 61 points with Cincinnati and 53 with Baltimore.  The Falcons and their opponents have gone for 48 or more combined points in each of their last four home games.  Conditions will be perfect for a shootout in the dome in Atlanta.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts -2.5

The Indianapolis Colts are clinging on to their hopes of making the playoffs in the AFC.  They sit at 5-7 this season, and they are looking at this as a must-win Sunday against the New England Patriots.  I expect them to get the win and cover today in this must-win spot.

The Colts are coming off a misleading 24-6 home loss to Detroit in which they had so many big plays called back by penalties.  I think they clean that up this week, and finally get to face an opponent in the Patriots they can handle after going through the gauntlet of Detroit, NYJ, Buffalo, Minnesota and Houston in their last five games.

Now they get to take on the Patriots, who are just 3-9 SU & 4-7-1 ATS this season.  There was nothing misleading about their 34-15 loss to the Dolphins last week, other than the fact that it could have been worse as they trailed 31-0 going into the 4th quarter and scored both TD's in garbage time, including a defensive TD.  New England was outgained 373 to 269 by the Dolphins, or by 104 total yards.

Injuries are a big issue for the Patriots right now as they are as banged up as just about any team in the NFL.  They have six players on IR, two players out and another nine players questionable for this one.  Injuries are a big reason I am fading them this week.

It's easy to see why the Patriots are so banged up as they will be playing for a 13th consecutive week as they have not had their bye yet.  They are gassed, especially after playing three of their last four games on the road.  I love the spot for the Colts this week to get right against much weaker competition than they have been facing for over a month.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* New Mexico/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico -2.5

The New Mexico Lobos are 5-6 in Bronco Mendenhall's first season on the job.  Now they are one win away from bowl eligibility and will be highly motivated to get that all-important 6th victory.

While the Lobos are motivated, the Hawaii Warriors sit at 4-7 on the season and eliminated from bowl contention.  I don't like their mindset, especially after watching them get blasted by a mediocre Utah State team last time out.  They lost 55-10 at Utah State and allowed 580 yards to the Aggies with only 309 themselves, getting outgained by 171 yards.

They lost QB Brayden Schager late in that game to injury and he may not be able to play in this game due to injury.  Whether he plays or not, like New Mexico to win this game and cover.  I just don't think Hawaii is very good and they're definitely not in as good a frame of mind as the Lobos.

New Mexico has one of the best offenses in the country.  They score 33.8 points per game while ranking 4th in total offense at 484.5 yards per game and 7th at 7.0 yards per play.  They have tremendous balance rushing for 249 yards per game and throwing for 236 yards per game behind one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country in Dampier.

Hawaii ranks 78th against the run allowing 153 yards per game and 87th allowing 4.5 yards per carry.  Their run D has been particularly poor of late, allowing 290 rushing yards to UNLV and 321 to Utah State in their last two games.  They definitely let go of the rope against Utah State, and they will let go of it again if New Mexico gets an early lead.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Air Force -3.5

Air Force has been a different team down the stretch.  The Falcons are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They upset Fresno State 36-28 as 9.5-point home dogs, upset Oregon State 28-0 as 3-point home dogs and upset Nevada 22-19 as 3-point road dogs.

While the Falcons are improving a ton defensively, it's the fact that they have found a running game that has made them more competitive.  Air Force rushed for 344 yards on Fresno State, 270 yards on Oregon State and 318 yards on Nevada.

That's bad news for San Diego State, which cannot stop the run here down the stretch and looks to have pretty much quit.  The Aztecs are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They lost 56-24 at Boise State, 21-16 at home to New Mexico, 41-20 at UNLV and 41-20 at Utah State.

The Aztecs allowed 541 total yards including 219 rushing to Boise, then 300 rushing to New Mexico, 253 rushing to UNLV and 322 rushing to Utah State.  It's safe to say their defense cannot stop the run, and they are probably out of gas playing for a 6th consecutive week.  I give them almost zero chance of stopping this Air Force triple-option, which they haven't faced yet this season.  Bet Air Force Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State ML -125

I love the spot for the Michigan State Spartans Saturday.  They sit at 5-6 on the season and one win shy of bowl eligibility in Jonathan Smith's first season on the job.  The Spartans will be extra motivated to make a bowl and to get a win for their Seniors on Senior Day.

Rutgers is already bowl eligible at 6-5 on the season and won't be nearly as motivated.  I think it's a tough spot for the Scarlet Knights after blowing a 1-point lead in the final seconds at home in a 38-31 loss to Illinois.  They have played three straight hard-fought games the last three weeks against Illinois, Maryland and Minnesota and I question how much they'll have left in the tank here.

Michigan State has played a much tougher schedule than Rutgers this season.  The Spartans have played the 26th-ranked strength of schedule while the Scarlet Knights have played the 54th.  And Michigan State still has put up better numbers than Rutgers despite the tougher schedule.

The Spartans are dead even in yards per play differential averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.4 per play on defense.  Rutgers is has a -0.7 yards per play differential, averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense but giving up 6.1 yards per play on defense.  The Spartans are the better team, have the motivational advantage and are at home here.  Bet Michigan State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on NC State +3.5

I love the spot for NC State Saturday.  The Wolfpack sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They are clearly fighting to become bowl eligible here down the stretch, and I like their mental state much better than that of North Carolina right now.

The Tar Heels sit at 6-5 this season and already bowl eligible.  Mack Brown has announced he is stepping down following a ugly 41-21 loss at Boston College last week.  The Tar Heels were outgained 480-212 by the Eagles, or by 268 total yards.  It really looked like they just quit, and I don't trust many of their players to show up Saturday with their futures in limbo now.

NC State took Wake Forest, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Duke to the wire in four tough losses here down the stretch.  They also upset Cal on the road as 9-point dogs and blasted Stanford by 31 at home as 9.5-point favorites.  Last time out they only lost 30-29 as 7.5-point dogs at Georgia Tech, which beat Miami.  They actually outgained the Yellow Jackets in that game.

NC State should be the fresher team here after playing Georgia Tech last Thursday. They get an extra two days to prep for this game, and they also had a bye prior to that GT game.  They couldn't possibly be more fresh, more prepared and more focused for a win here.  I think they way they've fought down the stretch will pay off here with an outright win over a UNC team with questionable motivation.  Bet NC State Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UAB/Charlotte OVER 60

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to UAB (3-8) and Charlotte (4-7) Saturday.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers play fast and they play no defense.  They rank 33rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  They rank 121st in scoring defense allowing 34.7 points per game.  And UAB has played much better offensively since switching to Jalen Kitna at QB, averaging 428.2 total yards per game and 33 points per game in their last five games.  The OVER is 7-1-1 in UAB's last nine games overall with 54 or more combined points in all nine games.

Charlotte is also a team with a terrible defense.  The 49ers rank 124th in scoring defense allowing 35.8 points per game.  I think both offenses will have plenty of success even though these aren't two of the best offenses in the country.  Charlotte is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall with 58 or more combined points in five of those six games.  There will be no wind or rain today in Charlotte so the forecast looks great for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion/Arkansas State OVER 58.5

There are going to be a lot of possessions in this game between Old Dominion and Arkansas State Saturday because both play fast.  The Monarchs rank 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds, while the Red Wolves rank 20th snapping it every 24.0 seconds.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  Arkansas State ranks 109th allowing 31.5 points per game, 124th allowing 453.6 yards per game and 128th allowing 6.8 yards per play.  Old Dominion ranks 84th allowing 27.6 points per game, 106th allowing 410.5 yards per game and 87th allowing 5.8 yards per play.

This Old Dominion offense has been humming lately and will get whatever it wants against Arkansas State.  The OVER is 3-1 in Monarchas' last four games overall beating Georgia Southern 47-19 for 66 combined points behind 560 total yards, losing 28-20 at Appalachian State for 48 combined points despite gaining 498 yards, losing 35-32 to James Madison for 67 combined points and losing 42-35 to Marshall despite 513 total yards.

Arkansas State has gone OVER the total in three of its last five combining for 72 points with Southern Miss, 65 with Troy and 74 with Louisiana.  They did only combine for 49 points with Monroe, but the Warhawks play at the 2nd-lowest tempo in the country.

I think this game will be played freely with neither team having much to play for.  Old Dominion has been eliminated from bowl contention at 4-7.  Arkansas State has already clinched bowl eligibility at 7-4, but they have already been eliminated from Sun Belt Championship contention.  I like backing OVERS late in the season between two teams with nothing to play for.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Middle Tennessee/FIU OVER 51.5

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to Middle Tennessee (3-8) and Florida International (3-8) Saturday.

I think we'll see a shootout today with both offenses opening up the entire playbook against two suspect defenses. The forecast looks great for a shootout in Florida with temps in the 70's, only 10 MPH winds and a small chance of precipitation.

Florida International ranks 76th in scoring defense at 25.9 points per game and 73rd allowing 370.4 yards per game.  Middle Tennessee ranks 119th in scoring defense allowing 34.2 points per game, 122nd allowing 447.9 yards per game and 126th allowing 6.6 yards per play.

Middle Tennessee is 8-3 to the OVER 51.5 on the season combining for 54 or more points with its opponents in eight of its 11 games.  FIU is 7-3 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 51 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two teams with nothing to play for.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Florida/Rice OVER 53.5

The South Florida Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the entire country in tempo and by a wide margin, snapping the ball every 20.5 seconds.  They have an elite offense and a vulnerable defense.  This total of 53.5 is very low for a game involving South Florida right now.

The Bulls have topped this total themselves in their last two games.  They beat Charlotte 59-24 for 83 combined points and racked up 425 rushing yards in the process.  They beat Tulsa 63-30 last week and racked up 715 total yards.  I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas against Rice this week, either.

Rice has a very good quarterback in EJ Warner.  The Owls have really been through a gauntlet of opposing defenses here down the stretch and have gone under the total in four of their last five.  I think that has provided us value to back an OVER in a game involving Rice, which I did last week with success in a 40-14 loss to UAB with a closing total of 51.5.

Rice ranks in the top half of the country in tempo at 64th, so there are going to be a ton of possessions in this game.  Neither team has anything to play for as USF clinched a bowl last week, while Rice sits at 3-8 on the season with an interim head coach.  I love taking OVERS late in the season when nothing is at stake because it tends to favor offense over defense as both teams are loose and playing freely.

South Florida and its opponents have combined for 55 or more points in eight of its last 10 games.  Rice and South Florida combined for 71 points in their meeting last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on UTSA +7

The UTSA Roadrunners are one of the most improved teams in the country from the first half of the season until now.  After a 1-4 start, they have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0 during this stretch.

The wins have been impressive.  It started with a 38-24 home win over FAU as 4.5-point favorites.  They went on to blow a 28-point lead to Tulsa in their next game losing 46-45 as 9.5-point favorites.  They could have easily packed it in at that point, but they have responded as well as possible and that's a reflection of their head coach.

They beat Memphis 44-36 as 7-point home dogs, and that's a 10-2 Memphis team that just beat Tulane. They crushed North Texas 48-27 as 1.5-point home favorites and crushed Temple 51-27 as 17-point favorites.  Their defense is improving, but their offense is hitting on all cylinders averaging 45.2 points per game over their last five.

The spot is a terrible one for Army. The Black Knights opened 9-0 this season against one of the softest schedules in the country. They finally stepped up in class last week and got blasted 49-14 at Notre Dame.  That loss eliminated them from 12-team playoff consideration, and I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

That's especially the case with Army knowing they already have a spot in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane clinched.  They will be looking forward to that game if anything, making this a sandwich spot for the Black Knights.  I don't like their mental state coming into this one.

I also love the matchup for UTSA.  They are terrible against the pass, but that won't matter against Army.  The Roadrunners rank 9th in the country against the run allowing 100.5 rushing yards per game and 11th nationally allowing just 3.1 yards per carry.  They are equipped to stop triple-option teams like Army.  This is a game I fully expect the Roadrunners to win outright, but getting +7 with them is an absolute gift.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

20* Nebraska/Iowa NBC No-Brainer on Nebraska +4

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have a huge weight lifted off their shoulders.  They were previously on a 0-9 run when sitting on five wins looking for their 6th and bowl eligibility the last several seasons.  They got that monkey off their back with a dominant 44-25 win over Wisconsin last week, and now I expect them to be playing loose and freely today against their hated rivals in the Iowa Hawkeyes.

The Hawkeyes were fortunate Maryland QB Billy Edwards got hurt in the 1st quarter of their 29-13 win at Maryland last week.  It changed the entire game.  That result is making Iowa a bigger favorite than they should be against Nebraska this week.  It's also a Terrapins team that looks to have quit on the season.

Nebraska has a huge advantage over Iowa at quarterback this week.  5-star QB Dillon Raiola is getting comfortable with Dana Holgorsen as his coordinator, and the Huskers racked up 473 total yards on the Badgers last week.  Iowa is down to third-string QB Jackson Stratton.  He went just 10-of-14 passing for 76 yards against Maryland last week.

Iowa needs to be able to run the football to have success.  I know Matt Rhule will do everything he can to stack the box to try and stop Kaleb Johnson, who had 35 carries against Maryland last week with a long of 13.  If they stop Johnson, I don't think Stratton is good enough to beat them.  

Each of the last six meetings between Nebraska and Iowa have been decided by one score.  And this is the best Huskers team during this stretch that the Hawkeyes will have to deal with this season.  This is not close to the best Iowa team during this stretch.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

25* MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State +6

Utah State has been competitive in five of its last six games with the lone exception being a 49-28 loss at Washington State.  They only lost by 16 to UNLV, by 5 to New Mexico, beat Wyoming by 2, crushed Hawaii 55-10 and dominated San Diego State 41-20.  

Those last two games were very impressive.  The Aggies racked up 580 total yards on Hawaii and held them to just 309, outgaining them by 271 yards.  Hawaii had been playing very well going into that game.  They racked up 488 more yards against San Diego State last week.

While Utah State sits at just 4-7 on the season, I think they'll be treating this as their bowl game.  They could have packed it in a lot sooner if they wanted to, but it just goes to show the character of this team to finish the way they have.

This is a tough spot for Colorado State.  Their dreams of making the Mountain West Championship Game were all but crushed with a 28-22 loss at Fresno State last week.  Now they no longer control their own destiny, instead they'll need to win this game and have UNLV lose at home to Nevada as a near 3-touchdown favorite.  That's not going to happen and they know it.

But Colorado State has been living on borrowed time all season.  The Rams are actually getting outgained by nearly 7 yards per game on the season.  Utah State is only getting outgained by roughly 5 yards per game on the season to compare.  These teams are much closer to even than this line would indicate, and getting +6 with the Aggies is tremendous value today.  Bet Utah State Friday.

20* Miami Ohio/Bowling Green ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The forecast is a big reason for this play on the UNDER.  Temps will be around 30 with 20-25 MPH winds and gusts as high as 40 MPH.  There's a lot at stake with a trip to the MAC Championship on the line for both teams, so it will be played close to the vest.

Both teams play slow.  Bowling Green ranks 118th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 29.0 seconds.  Miami ranks 120th in tempo snapping the ball every 29.0 seconds as well.  There will be very few possessions in this game, and both teams are led by their defenses.

One of the best players in the country that not many know about is Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin.  He leads the entire country in receiving with 92 receptions for 1,294 yards and 9 TD.  Fannin is questionable to play Friday and my best guess is he won't be healthy enough to play.  

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 27, 30 and 41 combined points in the last three.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Memphis/Tulane ESPN No-Brainer on Memphis +14

It's time to 'sell high' on the Tulane Green Wave.  Tulane is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It's safe to say this is the peak of the market on the Green Wave now.  They don't have a lot to play for this week as they are already locked into the AAC Championship Game against Army.  They aren't likely to make the 12-team playoff with Boise State controlling its own fate.

The Green Wave have taken advantage of an easy schedule.  Their last three games were cake walks against Navy without QB Blake Horvath, and dead Temple and Charlotte teams.  They beat North Texas by 8 and Rice by 14 in the two games prior.  And the other two wins came against UAB and South Florida.

This is a big step up in class for Tulane having to face Memphis, which also is 9-2 this season.  While the Tigers have been eliminated from AAC Championship contention, then continue to play hard beating Rice 27-20 and UAB 53-18 in their last two games.  Now they want to prove that they can beat the top dogs in Tulane, and I think the Tigers will be as motivated as they've been for any game this season.

I know Memphis' best effort is good enough to stay within two touchdowns of Tulane.  Memphis is 13-4 SU in its last 17 meetings with Tulane with only one loss by more than 14 points.  That makes for a 16-1 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Bet Memphis Thursday.

15* Giants/Cowboys FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 37.5

This total has been adjusted down too much for both teams having backup quarterbacks.  I think there's value on the OVER, especially given the circumstances with both teams playing freely with not much to play for from here on out.  It's also indoors in perfect scoring conditions in Dallas.

I'm hoping the Giants go to Drew Lock, who is their best backup QB instead of Tommy DeVito.  It looks like DeVito is going to be a game-time decision, and I'll like this OVER either way, but this total will balloon if Lock is announced the starter.

Dallas is coming off a 34-26 win at Washington with a huge offensive performance even with Cooper Rush at QB.  That game saw 60 combined points.  Rush went 24-of-32 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD.  Now reinforcements are on the way with No. 2 receiver Brandin Cooks coming off IR this week.

This Dallas defense is pathetic, and whoever is under center for the Giants is going to have success.  The Cowboys have allowed at least 26 points in six consecutive games and an average of 33.0 points per game during this stretch.  The Cowboys are also allowing 37.4 points per game at home this season.

The Giants came out of their bye and laid an absolute egg defensively, allowing 30 points and 450 total yards to the Bucs.  It looks like they have pretty much quit on that side of the football.  I don't think either of these defenses can be trusted with a total of 37.5, which is about as low as you'll ever see for an indoor game in today's NFL.  

The Cowboys and Giants have combined for at least 39 points in nine of their last 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Bears/Lions CBS No-Brainer on OVER 48

The Detroit Lions rank 1st in the NFL in scoring offense at 32.7 points per game.  While they are loaded on offense, they are vulnerable on defense without DE Aidan Hutchinson and LB Alex Anzalone, arguably their two best defensive players.  They are also without starting CB Carlton Davis III this week.

The Chicago Bears have been a different offense since firing their coordinator.  They put up 391 total yards on the Packers in their first game with the new coordinator.  They put up 27 points and 398 yards on the Vikings last week in their second game without them.  This offense is trending up, and the Bears now have the firepower to go score for score with the Lions, which they are going to be forced to do.

The Bears and Lions have combined for 51, 57 and 61 points in three of their last four meetings.  It's going to be perfect conditions for a shootout indoors in Detroit.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Chargers OVER 47.5

This Baltimore offense is one of the best in NFL history.  The Ravens rank 2nd in scoring at 30.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 430.1 yards per game and 1st at 7.2 yards per play.  Lamar Jackson has more weapons than he has ever had with Flowers, Bateman, Johnson, Andrews, Likely, Hill and Agholor, and he has one of the best RB's the NFL has ever seen in Derrick Henry, who has already rushed for 1,185 yards and 13 TD.

The weakness of Baltimore is their pass defense.  They rank dead last (32nd) in the NFL allowing 284.5 passing yards per game and 26th at 7.2 yards per attempt.  LB Roquon Smith suffered a hamstring injury against the Steelers last week and did not practice Friday and may not play in this game.  Nickel CB Arthur Maulet is out, and NT Travis Jones is questionable.

The Chargers have been an under team this season and they do have a great defense.  However, they have benefited from facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL.  They have faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston, Will Levis and Joe Burrow this season.  Mahomes was missing many of his key weapons.

We saw what the Chargers defense was last week against a high-powered offense in the Cincinnati Bengals.  They won a 34-27 shootout and gave up 452 total yards to the Bengals, including 356 passing and 3 TD from Burrow.  I think they'll get shredded by this Baltimore offense as well.

The Los Angeles Chargers are showing what they are capable of offensively when they are basically fully healthy, which they are right now.  They put up 26 points on the Saints and weren't pressed so they took their foot off the gas late in that game.  They put up 27 points on the Browns on the road and 27 points on the Titans at home.  Those are two very underrated defenses.  They put up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Bengals, who have a similarly poor defense to Baltimore.

The OVER is 9-2 in all Baltimore games this season with 45 or more combined points in 10 of the 11, and 49 or more combined points in eight of those.  They have gone for 51 or more combined points with their opponents in six of their last seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver Broncos -4.5

The Denver Broncos are rolling right now going 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  One of those losses was a game they deserved to win in a 16-14 loss at Kansas City as 7-point dogs in a game they had won, but had their short FG blocked on the final play.  They also lost to the Ravens on the road and the Chargers, who were coming off their bye week and were a lot healthier at the time.  All of those losses have aged well.

The Broncos are crushing the teams they are supposed to beat, like these Las Vegas Raiders.  They upset the Bucs by 19, upset the Jets as 8.5-point road dogs, crushed the Raiders by 16 at home, crushed the Saints by 23 on the road, topped the Panthers by 14 at home and buried the Falcons by 32 at home last week.

While the Broncos are almost fully healthy right now and motivated to make the playoffs, the Raiders are in limbo right now and not healthy at all.  The Raiders are 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their six losses coming by an average of 13.2 points per game.

The Raiders have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL, they are without their top two RB's in Mattison and White, they are missing two starters along the offensive line, and they could be without three starters in the secondary.  It's not going to get any better this week against the Broncos.  I expect this to feel like a home game for Denver as their fans will travel well, and Raiders fans don't have a lot to be excited about right now.

While Bo Nix is getting a lot of the headlines and is playing very well behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, it's this Denver defense that is the backbone.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game and 3rd at 289.4 yards per game.  They are also 1st allowing 4.9 yards per play.  Their task will be easy this week because the Raiders' only real threat on offense is TE Brock Bowers, who has 70 receptions for 706 yards this season.  They will scheme up a way to take him out, and Denver should win in another blowout.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Patriots/Dolphins OVER 45

The New England Patriots are becoming more of an OVER team with Drake Maye at quarterback.  He is showing the Patriots made the right move by drafting him No. 3 overall and New England fans have a lot to look forward to.  His dual-threat ability and his deep ball make this Patriots offense a lot more potent than when Jacoby Brissett was running the show.

Maye is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,236 yards with a 9-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 260 yards and a score on 9.3 per carry.  He kept the Patriots in the game last week in a 28-22 loss to the Rams.  The Rams put up 402 total yards on this banged up Patriots defense, but the Patriots got 382 total yards in a shootout.

This Miami offense has taken off since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury.  He has led them to 27 points against the Cardinals, 27 against the Bills, 23 against the Rams and 34 against the Raiders.  The Dolphins profile much more as an OVER team as long as Tua is under center.  He'll be up against a New England defense that has six starters listed on the injury report and another six listed out or on IR.

The forecast in Miami looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  This total of 45 is too low for the makeup of these two teams currently.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Washington Commanders -10

I love the spot for the Washington Commanders Sunday.  They are coming off a mini bye week after playing the Eagles last Thursday.  That was their second consecutive loss after falling by 1 to the Steelers.  They will be motivated coming out of their mini-bye, and they will be a lot healthier, including QB Jayden Daniels.

Now the Commanders get a team they should handle in the hapless Dallas Cowboys.  This is a Cowboys team that just isn't very good for starters, and one that has been decimated by injuries this season as well.  The Cowboys are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost 47-9 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Lions, 30-24 as 5.5-point road dogs to the 49ers, 27-21 as 3.5-point road dogs to the Falcons, 34-6 as 7-point home dogs to the Eagles and 34-10 as 7-point home dogs to the Texans.  

They even scored a garbage TD late against the 49ers to make that score look closer than it was, and a garbage score against the Falcons late to make that score closer than it was. The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott to injury in that loss to the Falcons to boot.  We saw what this team looks like without Dak at QB, and it's not pretty. 

That 34-6 loss to the Eagles was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Cowboys managed just 146 total yards and 11 first downs against the Eagles.  They had 49 net passing yards on 26 attempts, averaging less than 2 yards per attempt.  I don't think I've ever seen passing numbers in the NFL that are that poor.  Rush had more success against the Texans, but it was a lot of dink and dunk when they were trailing big.  He's just not a NFL starting QB.

The injuries just keep piling up for the Cowboys.  They will be without TE Jake Ferguson, who suffered a concussion against the Texans.  They will be without RG Zack Martin, and several other key players are questionable in WR Brandin Cooks, LG Tyron Smith, LB Nick Vigil and CB Trevon Diggs.

After facing two of the best defenses in the league in the Steelers and Eagles, things should come a lot easier for Daniels and this Washington offense against one of the worst defenses in the league in the Cowboys.  Dallas ranks 31st in scoring defense allowing 29.3 points per game.  It is 30th allowing 6.1 yards per play.  The Cowboys have now allowed at least 27 points in five consecutive games.  Washington will get to at least 27, and that will be enough to cover this 10-point spread.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants have new life coming out of their bye week with a new QB in Tommy DeVito.  We saw him give them a spark last season going 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in his six starts, including 4-0 ATS against the four teams that allowed the most points per game that he faced.

He will be up against a leaky Tampa Bay defense that ranks 27th in scoring at 26.6 points per game, 30th in total defense at 389.3 yards per game and 29th at 6.1 yards per play.  The Giants will have a lot more success on offense than they are getting credit for this week.

On the other side of the ball, the strength of this Giants defense is their pass rush.  They will be up against a shaky Tampa Bay offensive line that will likely be without their best player in LT Tristan Wirfs.  Baker Mayfield will be under duress all game. The Giants are almost fully healthy coming out of their bye week and will be getting some key players back to boot.

The Giants are undervalued due to their poor 2-8 SU record.  But they are 1-5 SU in games decided by one score.  They have been unfortunate in close games.  If they lose this game, it will be by one score, so there's some serious value in getting +6 with them at home this week.  This line was Tampa Bay -3 on the lookahead which is where I believe its should be, so we are getting 3 full points of value here.  Don't be the surprised if the Giants win this game outright.

Baker Mayfield is 9-13 SU & 9-13 ATS in his career coming off extended rest, including 3-8 SU on the road.  Todd Bowles is 9-17 SU on extended rest in his coaching career, including 2-8 SU on the road.  Brian Daboll is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS off a bye as the coach of the Giants.  Mayfield is 1-4 ATS coming off a bye, including 0-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more.  Bet the Giants Sunday.