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15* Lakers/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR UNDER 230.5

Both the Lakers and Bucks played in the NBA Cup last night and both will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  That means both are likely to rest their stars tonight.  Don't be surprised if Giannis sits for the Bucks, while Doncic and/or Reaves sit for the Lakers.

Giannis will almost certainly sit after beating the Hornets in OT last night and playing 40 minutes.  Doncic played 40 minutes and Reaves 39 for the Lakers last night.  These offenses are going to struggle without these guys if they do sit, and I don't hate the UNDER if they don't because they will be on tired legs and the shooting will be affected.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves UNDER 235

The Nuggets will be without Christian Braun (11.4 PPG) and Cam Johnson (7.2 PPG) tonight.  They also could be without Nikola Jokic (28.8 PPG, 10.9 APG), who is questionable with a wrist injury.  Their offense will be hampered without Braun and Johnson, and it will be non-existent if Jokic sits.

The Timberwolves are coming off a 124-110 win over the Kings last night in the NBA Cup.  They could elect to wrest Anthony Edwards and possibly more guys after all five starters played at least 30 minutes last night.  Either way, I like the UNDER in this matchup.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -6.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dumpster fire.  They are 1-11 this season and coming off five straight troubling losses with no help in sight.  They were upset at home by the Nets as 6.5-point favorites, they lost by 17 in Denver as 9-point dogs, lost by 31 in Golden State as 13-point dogs, lost by 24 at Utah while giving up 152 points to the Jazz, and last time out lost by 35 at Phoenix.

To add insult to injury the Pacers just lost Aaron Nesmith (15.5 PPG) to a long-term knee injury in that loss to the Suns.  They were already without Benndict Mathurin (31.0 PPG), Obi Toppin (14.0 PPG), Tyrese Haliburton, Kam Jones, Quenton Jackson (11.8 PPG) and Johnny Furphy.  There's just no help in sight for this team.

The Raptors are rolling right now going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with upset road wins over Cleveland by 13, Cleveland by 11 and Atlanta by 12 during this stretch.  They also blew out the Bucks by 28 and the Grizzlies by 13 at home.  They will make easy work of the short-handed Pacers tonight.  Bet the Raptors Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Spurs OVER 235

The Spurs are now a dead nuts OVER team since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury to run the PG position.  He made his return three games ago in a 126-119 win over the Pelicans for 245 combined points.  That was a Pelicans team missing two of its best players in Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, too.  The Spurs then beat the Bulls 121-117 for 238 combined points two games ago.  

Last time out, the Spurs lost to the Warriors 125-120 for 245 combined points.  The Spurs are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall going for 231 or more combined points in all six games.  The Spurs will play a lot faster with Fox moving forward.  Nobody in the NBA gets from one rim to the other faster than Fox.  He will get the Spurs in their offense faster, and they will play with much more pace.

The Warriors are an OVER team as long as Steph Curry is healthy.  He is healthy now, and he had 46 points going 5-of-16 from 3-point range in that 125-120 win over the Spurs on Wednesday.  The Warriors shot 57 3-pointers, and it should be more of the same here with a lot of fast break opportunities for Fox and the Spurs on the misses.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Warriors/Spurs NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio -2

San Antonio is a young team that cares about winning the NBA Cup.  Golden State is a veteran team that's more focused on a championship and won't get up for these NBA Cup games like the Spurs will.  Adding to San Antonio's motivation is a 125-120 home loss to the Warriors on Wednesday, and they feel like this would be the ultimate revenge to beat the Warriors in the NBA Cup.

The Warriors needed a huge 2H comeback to beat the Spurs.  They also hit 21 3-pointers and went 32-of-36 from the FT line, while the Spurs went just 14-of-16 from the FT line.  I suspect the Warriors won't get the benefit of the whistle like they did in that meeting Wednesday, and the FT disparity won't be nearly as high.

The Spurs are 5-1 SU at home this season, so that was their lone home loss adding to their motivation for revenge.  The Warriors are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hornets/Bucks OVER 239

The Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy, and he is making his return to the lineup tonight for this NBA Cup game.  The Bucks are a dead nuts OVER team as long as Giannis is healthy, and he is making his return to the lineup for this NBA Cup game tonight.  This total of 239 is too short.

Ball is averaging 23.3 points, 9.8 assists and 7.8 rebounds per game this season.  Their offense plays a lot faster and is a lot more efficient with him running the show, but their defense gets worse.  The Hornets will be without C Ryan Kalbrenner tonight, so their defense takes a hit without his size inside.  They will have to go more small ball.

Giannis is off to an MVP-caliber start averaging 33.4 points, 11.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game.  G Ryan Rollins has emerged as a playmaker, and the Bucks have a lot of shooting surrounding Giannis to make them a very efficient offense.  They will be without one of their best wing defenders in Taurean Prince tonight as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Jazz OVER 233.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They play fast and they rank 25th in defensive rating allowing 117.9 points per 100 possessions.  They face an Atlanta Hawks team with a similar profile that also likes to play fast tonight.  This game should sail OVER this 233.5-point total.

Utah is 4-1 OVER in its five home games scoring 133.2 points per game and allowing 125.2 points per game, combining to average over 258 points per game at home this season.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for 233 or more points in all five home games, including 280 with the short-handed Pacers last time out.

The Hawks are thriving offensively even without Trae Young.  They have scored at least 122 points in four of their last seven games overall, and I expect them to get to at least that number tonight to pave the way in us cashing this OVER 233.5 ticket.  The Jazz just hung 152 points on the Pacers and they have scored at least 129 points in four of their five home games this season.  

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Hawks and Jazz finishing with 281, 245 and 246 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Lakers/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 228.5

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-2 OVER in their 11 games this season finishing with 228 or more combined points in 10 of those 11 games.  This despite playing without LeBron James the entire way, and multiple games without both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

Reaves (30.3 PPG, 9.0 APG) is back after missing three games in a row.  The Lakers have been pretty dangerous with him and Luka Doncic (37.1 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 9.1 APG) on the court at the same time.  They are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA, but they are also one of the worst defensive teams.

The Thunder are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have gone for 228 or more combined points with their opponents in six of those seven games.  This total of 228.5 is very short for a game involving the Lakers and Thunder right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Spurs OVER 231.5

The Spurs are now a dead nuts OVER team since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury to run the PG position.  He made his return two games ago in a 126-119 win over the Pelicans for 245 combined points.  That was a Pelicans team missing two of its best players in Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, too.  The Spurs beat the Bulls 121-117 for 238 combined points last time out.  The Spurs are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall going for 231 or more combined points in all five games.

The Spurs will play a lot faster with Fox moving forward.  Nobody in the NBA gets from one rim to the other faster than Fox.  He will get the Spurs in their offense faster, and they will play with much more pace.  That was evident against the Pelicans and Bulls, and it will continue to be the case tonight against the Warriors.

Steph Curry is expected to play tonight, and as long as he is in the lineup the Warriors profile more of an OVER team.  The Spurs and Warriors have combined for at least 230 points in six of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4

The San Antonio Spurs are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 5-4-1 ATS this season, including 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home.  I fully expect them to make it 6-0 at home to start the season given the favorable spot they are in against the Warriors tonight.

The Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-102 road loss at Oklahoma City last night.  They will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough as it gets.  The Warriors are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six road games including blowout losses to the Blazers by 20, the Nuggets by 25 and the Thunder by 24.  Kuminga has been downgraded to questionable.

The Spurs are rolling despite only having De'Aaron Fox for the last two games.  He has averaged 22.5 points per game in those two games since returning, and the Spurs will only continue to get more and more comfortable with him with each passing game moving forward.  They will handle their business tonight.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Miami Heat -5.5

The Miami Heat are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They have opened 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS and their change of philosophy to play at the fastest pace in the entire NBA is giving teams trouble.

It gave the Cavaliers trouble the other night in a 140-138 (OT) win by Miami on Monday.  And that was with a healthy Cavaliers team.  Now the Cavs have no chance of keeping this game competitive with all the players that will be sitting out for the rematch tonight.

The Cavs will be without Mitchell (30.4 PPG), Mobley (20.1 PPG), Garland (13.0 PPG) and Tyson (11.1 PPG).  I trust Erik Spoelstra and these Miami players not to take them lightly tonight.  If they don't, this will be one of the biggest blowouts of the season.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls ML +105

The Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 6-4 SU & 7-2-1 ATS despite playing without Coby White the entire season, and Josh Giddey for multiple games.  They are proving they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and their ultra fast pace gives opponents problems.

It will certainly cause problems for the short-handed Detroit Pistons tonight.  Several players got injured in their 137-135 (OT) win over Washington on the 2nd of a back-to-back as 11-point favorites on Monday.  Now it looks like they are going to rest some key players tonight.

The Pistons were already going to be without Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson and Isaiah Stewart tonight.  Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren both missed shootaround, a sign that neither will play tonight.  The Pistons will be running out basically a G League team if that's the case.  The Bulls have lost three straight coming in so they will not take them lightly if these guys sit.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Magic/Knicks ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 226.5

The Knicks are rolling offensively going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall while scoring at least 119 points in six consecutive games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven games overall finishing with 232 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 226.5 is too low for a game involving the Knicks right now.

The Magic have changed philosophy to try and play faster and their offense has been much better with the addition of Desmond Bane and the return to health of Jalen Suggs.  The Magic rank in the top half of the league in pace.  But they have slipped big-time defensively this season.

The Magic and their opponents have combined for at least 227 points in five of their last seven games overall.  So this total of 226.5 is also pretty low for a game involving the Magic right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Celtics/76ers NBC No-Brainer on Philadelphia ML -115

Tough break with Joel Embiid getting ruled out out of nowhere since I released this play.  But I still think the 76ers have the goods to get the job done as they have gotten used to playing without Embiid for the last two seasons.  If anything I'd just downgrade this to a 15* instead of a 20*.

The 76ers want revenge from a 109-108 home loss to the Celtics in the NBA Cup on October 31st.  They will want this game more, and I could see the Celtics having a letdown here after already beating the 76ers.  I also just don't think this Celtics team is that good with who they are putting on the court this season with the losses of Tatum, Porzingis, Holiday and Horford.

The 76ers are 3-2 SU at home this season with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points, so they are very close to being 5-0 at home.  The Celtics are 3-3 SU on the road with two of their wins coming by a combined 5 points and the other coming against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Pelicans.  They lost by 13 to the Magic and by 10 to the Knicks.

The Celtics will be playing their 10th game in 17 days as they haven't had two days off in a row once this season.  The 76ers will be playing just their 3rd game in 6 days.  Bet the 76ers on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -9.5

The New York Knicks fully healthy right now and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Knicks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating the Bulls by 12 as 7.5-point favorites, the Wizards by 17 as 13-point favorites, the Timberwolves by 23 as 3.5-point favorites and the Nets by 36 as 15.5-point favorites.

The Knicks will continue their string of double-digit blowout victories against a Memphis Grizzlies team that is one of the most overrated in the NBA.  The Grizzlies are 4-7 SU & 3-8 ATS this season.  JA Morant acts like he doesn't even want to be in Memphis anymore, and he just doesn't have much help outside of Jaren Jackson Jr.

The Grizzlies have rarely even been competitive this season as five of their seven losses have come by 13 points or more.  That includes road losses to the Warriors by 16 and the Raptors by 13, as well as home losses to the Thunder by 14, the Rockets by 15 and the Heat by 32.

The rest situation favors the Knicks, too.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, while the Grizzlies will be playing their 11th game in 19 days and have not had two days off in between games all season.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -10

The Brooklyn Nets are a dumpster fire this season.  They are 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS with their lone win coming against the short-handed Indiana Pacers, who are an equal dumpster fire.  The Nets have six losses already by 16 points or more, so laying this 10-point spread isn't that big of a stretch at all.

That's especially the case with how well the Toronto Raptors are playing right now.  The Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Philadelphia after beating the Hawks by 12 on the road in the NBA Cup the night prior.  It was a clear letdown spot.

Now the Raptors are rested and ready to go tonight after having the last two days off.  Their last four wins have all come by 11 points or more, so laying 10 here is not a big stretch.  Those four wins came against the Hawks, Bucks, Grizzlies and Cavs all by double-digits, so it was a tough schedule as well.  The Raptors are fully healthy with the exception of backup F Agbaji.

The Nets will be without second-leading scorer Cam Thomas (21.4 PPG) and key role player Day'Ron Sharpe (6.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG).  The Nets rank dead last in the NBA in defensive rating allowing 126.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Nets winning by 11, 30 and 17 points.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Bulls OVER 236.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 6th in pace this season while going 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have gone for 236 or more combined points in six of their last seven games, including 250 with the Cavs, 244 with the Knicks, 260 with the Knicks and 251 with the Hawks.  This total of 236.5 is pretty low for a game involving the Bulls.

The Spurs are now a dead nuts OVER team since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury to run the PG position.  He made his return last time out in a 126-119 win over the Pelicans for 245 combined points.  That was a Pelicans team missing two of its best players in Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, too.

The Spurs will play a lot faster with Fox moving forward.  Nobody in the NBA gets from one rim to the other faster than Fox.  He will get the Spurs in their offense faster, and they will play with much more pace.  That was evident against the Pelicans, and it will be amplified tonight against a Bulls team that will welcome them to run.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Heat OVER 247

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Monday when the Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Miami Heat.  The Heat rank 1st in pace with their new brand of basketball while the Cavaliers rank 7th in pace, carrying over what they did last season that made them one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA.

The Heat are 6-4 OVER in their 10 games this season finishing with 246 or more combined points five times.  The Cavs are 3-0 OVER in their last three games finishing with 250 combined points with the Bulls, 263 with the Wizards and 253 with the 76ers.

The Cavaliers recently got both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland back from injury and have been thriving on offense since, scoring 132 points against the 76ers, 148 against the Wizard and 128 against the Bulls.  They will hang a big number on the Heat, who are missing their best defender in Bam Adebayo and playing much more small ball now.

The Heat are coming off a 136-131 home win over the Blazers for 267 combined points.  Having Norman Powell back healthy opens up their offense, and their bench is deep with Jovic (29 points) and Jacquez Jr. (14) providing offensive production when they come in.  This figures to be one of the highest-scoring games of the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Lakers/Hornets OVER 231

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-2 OVER in their 10 games this season finishing with 228 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  This despite playing without LeBron James the entire way, and multiple games without both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

Reaves (31.1 PPG, 9.3 APG) is back from a 3-game absence tonight.  The Lakers have been pretty dangerous with him and Luka Doncic (37 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 9.5 APG) on the court at the same time.  They are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA, but they are also one of the worst defensive teams.

The Hornets also profile as an OVER team ranking 4th in pace this season and 24th in defensive rating.  They will get Miles Bridges (20.7 PPG) and Collin Sexton (16.1 PPG, 5.3 APG) back tonight, and they should be able to do enough offensively even without La'Melo Ball.  This total would easily be in the 240's if Ball was playing, and I think it has been adjusted down too much for the fact that he's not.

The OVER is 5-3 in the last eight meetings finishing with 231 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Portland Trail Blazers +2.5

The spot really favors the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with a short trip from Miami to Orlando.  Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 111-107 loss to the Celtics last night after beating the same Celtics team in the NBA Cup on Friday.

The Magic have already announced they will be without Jalen Suggs tonight due to rest.  Suggs had 20 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists against the Celtics yesterday and was finding his footing in his return from injury this season.  The offense is just lost without him as he gets everything going for them.  The other four starters all played at least 32 minutes last night for the Magic, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank tonight.

The Blazers will test those tired legs by playing at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA this season.  They have been one of the more underrated teams in the NBA going 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS this season with upset wins over the likes of the Thunder, Nuggets, Warriors and Lakers thus far.

The Magic have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA, going 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in their 10 games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -15.5

The Brooklyn Nets are a dumpster fire this season.  They are 1-8 SU & 3-6 ATS with their lone win coming against the short-handed Indiana Pacers, who are an equal dumpster fire.  The Nets have five losses already by 16 points or more, so laying this 15.5-point spread isn't that big of a stretch at all.

That's especially the case with the New York Knicks fully healthy right now and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Knicks are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall beating the Bulls by 12 as 7.5-point favorites, the Wizards by 17 as 13-point favorites and the Timberwolves by 23 as 3.5-point favorites.

The Knicks have been off since Wednesday so they are on three days' rest and primed for a big effort.  They will have no mercy for the Nets, who they currently have a 10-game winning streak against and will keep that going in blowout fashion today.  Bet the Knicks Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +12

I love the spot for the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They have had the last two days off, while the Denver Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 129-104 home win over the Golden State Warriors who were without Steph Curry last night.

This will also be the 4th game in 6 days for the Nuggets, who could decide to rest some guys tonight.  That was their first win in their last four games by more than 10 points.  They are laying too many points here given the spot.

The Pacers are just 1-7 SU but 5-3 ATS this season and have been competitive in almost every game.  Only two of their losses have come by more than 9 points this season.  There's a chance they get Andrew Nembhard back from injury as he has been upgraded to questionable, which is a good sign he makes his return tonight.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They have had the last two days off, while the Miami Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-108 win over the Charlotte Hornets, who were without three of their best players in Ball, Sexton and Miller.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Heat, about as tough of a spot as it gets.

Making matters worse for the Heat is they were already without their two best players in Herro and Adebayo, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them rest Norman Powell after he suffered an ankle injury last night.

The Blazers will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days, so they couldn't possibly be fresher.  They are playing well too going 4-1 SU in their last five games overall including wins over the Thunder, Nuggets and Lakers.  They are 6-2 ATS in all games this season and one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Lakers -3

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  The Lakers have had the last two days off, while the Atlanta Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 109-97 home loss to the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Cup last night.

The Hawks are already without Trae Young so they are short-handed.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Hawks last night.  There's a chance they decide to rest some guys here on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Lakers are rolling right now going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Luka Doncic is playing at an MVP level, and JJ Redick is in the running for Coach of the Year honors with what he is doing with this team without LeBron James.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Thunder/Kings OVER 229.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Friday in what should be a shootout between the Thunder and Kings.  The Thunder are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall finishing with 233 or more combined points in all four games.

The Kings are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall finishing with 237 or more combined points in all four games.  The Kings get back Zach LaVine tonight and have a deep bench with Russell Westbrook and Malik Monk, who both provide a lot more on offense than they do on defense.

The Thunder have also gotten healthier in recent weeks with Isaiah Joe and Chet Holmgren both back in the lineup, and both provide a lot more on offense than they do on defense.  Jalen Williams is out and Lu Dort is questionable, which are arguably OKC's two best defenders.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +11

The Sacramento Kings are 3-5 this season but they have been competitive in every game.  That includes their 107-101 road loss at OKC as 9-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They gave up a 14-4 run to end that game and blow it.  They now want revenge in the rematch in the NBA Cup catching 11 points this time around.

The Kings get Zach LaVine back healthy tonight and there's a chance Domantas Sabonis returns as well.  They have shown off their depth as Monk is one of the best 6th men in the league, and Russell Westbrook still has it coming off a 23-point, 16-rebound, 12-assist triple-double.

The Thunder opened 8-0 this season with smoke and mirrors winning two OT games plus escaping with narrow wins over the Kings and Mavericks.  They finally had their perfect season come to an end with an upset loss at Portland last time out.  They will now be playing their 7th game in 12 days and are a tired, banged up team.

The Thunder can't be favored by double-digits on the road here considering they are going to be without Jalen Williams, Aaron Wiggins and could be without Lu Dort, who is questionable.  These injuries are a big reason they have played in so many close games this season.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic tonight.  Many though they would contend in the East this season, but they have opened just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS.  The talent is there for a quick turnaround and I think we will see them put their best foot forward at home in the NBA Cup tonight.

The Boston Celtics were expected to have a down year with the loss of Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford.  They have held their own to this point at 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS, but most of their wins have come against bottom feeders.  I think they will get worked tonight against a Magic team that has a lot more talent and depth than the Celtics this season.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* Clippers/Suns NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix ML -122

The injury situation really favors the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They get Jalen Green into the lineup for the first time this season as he comes over from the Rockets in the Kevin Durant trade.  They are fully healthy with the exception of Dillon Brooks now.

The Clippers will be without their two best players in James Harden (23.3 PPG, 8.6 APG) and Kawhi Leonard (24.3 PPG).  The Clippers have been overvalued all season and continue to be overvalued here as a short road underdog without these two.  They are 3-4 SU & 1-6 ATS this season and it won't get better until these two return.  Bet the Suns on the Money Line Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Thunder/Blazers OVER 228.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and have gone 5-2 OVER in their seven games this season while finishing with 230 or more combined points in five of their seven games.  This total of 228.5 is very low for a game involving the Blazers right now.

The Thunder have overcome a lot of injuries for a 8-0 start this season.  They are much healthier now with key offensive weapons Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe back healthy.  They should start playing much faster with all these guys back.

The Thunder are 5-3 OVER in their eight games this season finishing with 233 or more combined points in three straight coming in.  They rank 4th in offensive rating and will make their way to 1st in that department as the season goes on as long as they stay healthy.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat +9.5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

The Heat have opened 4-3 SU & 5-1-1 ATS this season.  They crushed Memphis 146-114 on the road as 3-point dogs, beat the Knicks 115-107 as 3.5-point home dogs, crushed the Hornets 144-117 at home as 4.5-point favorites and upset the Clippers 120-119 as 7.5-point road dogs.  This is the most undervalued team in the NBA right now.

The Denver Nuggets have been very disappointing in their last two games.  After getting upset as 5.5-point road favorites by the Blazers in the NBA Cup, they came back off two days' rest and only beat the Kings by 6 as 11.5-point home favorites.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Nuggets OVER 240.5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

Playing at the league's fastest tempo produced a 125-121 loss to the Magic for 246 combined points and a 146-114 win over the Grizzlies for 260 combined points in their first two games of the season.  They have since gone for 261 combined points with the Hornets, 250 with the Lakers and 239 with the Clippers in their last three games to improve to 5-2 OVER in their seven games this season.  These games are sailing OVER the total.

Denver also looks like a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and poor defense.  The Nuggets are 4-2 OVER in their six games this season going for 241 or more combined points in all four overs.  The Nuggets rank 2nd in offensive rating this season averaging 121.2 points per 100 possessions.

The Heat and Nuggets went OVER the total in both meetings last season combining for 257 and 246 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Timberwolves/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 227.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 5-2 OVER in their seven games this season finishing with 227 or more combined points in six of their seven games, and 231 or more in five of them.  The Knicks are 3-1 OVER in their last four games finishing with 232 or more combined points in three of the four.  This total of 227.5 is very low for a game involving the Knicks and Timberwolves right now.

That's especially the case with Anthony Edwards expected back after missing basically the last five games for the Timberwolves.  It looks as though both teams are fully healthy right now, and both are two of the better offensive teams in the league when that's the case.  Minnesota is 9th in offensive rating while New York is 13th.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +6.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Nets tonight after a 0-7 start to the season.  The Nets have one of their best chances to get their first win of the season tonight against the injury-ravaged Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers are 1-6 this season.  They opened the season without Haliburton and McConnell, and they have since lost Mathurin, Nembhard, Toppin, Jackson and Furphy to injury.  They are basically a G League team right now and have no business being a 6.5-point favorite here.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State Warriors -11

The Golden State Warriors are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight following two straight upset road losses to the Pacers and Bucks. Now they are back home where they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season. The Warriors also have the rest advantage after having the last two days off.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Suns following three straight covers at home. Now the Suns are back on the road where they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS this season, losing to Utah, Denver by 22 and the Clippers by 27.

The Suns remain without Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks and Ryan Dunn and I don't give them much of a chance of keeping this game competitive without those three. The Warriors are nearly fully healthy with the exception of Al Horford, who isn't much of a loss at this point in his career. Bet the Warriors Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -4.5

I love the spot for the Toronto Raptors tonight. They are coming off consecutive blowout wins over Memphis by 13 at home and Cleveland by 11 on the road. They had yesterday off, and now they want revenge on the Bucks after losing by 6 to them on October 24th in their first meeting.

The Bucks are coming off a buzzer-beater 117-115 win over the injury-depleted Indiana Pacers last night. They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and they haven't had consecutive days off yet this season, so they are a tired team. This is a clear letdown spot for the Bucks after that thrilling win last night, plus having already beaten the Raptors by 6 in their first meeting. Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -3

This is a great spot for the Portland Trail Blazers and a terrible one for the Los Angeles Lakers. The spot justifies the Blazers being the favorite here as they should easily get the win and cover because of it.

The Blazers have had the last two days off and have won three in a row coming in as one of the more underrated teams in the NBA. That includes a 122-108 road win over the Lakers are identical 3-point favorites. Now they are at home and 3-point favorites in the rematch as well.

The Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 130-120 home win over the Miami Heat last night. Doncic and Reaves both played 38 minutes, and I wouldn't be surprised to see one or both sit in this game. The Lakers will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days tonight. Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dumpster fire right now. They suspended JA Morant for one game, and though he could return tonight the chemistry in the locker room is not good.

The spot is also not good for the Grizzlies. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-104 loss in Toronto last night. They will also be playing their 7th game in 11 days here. They are already lacking depth without Edey, Clarke, Pippen Jr. and Jerome due to injuries.

The Pistons are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and playing very well. They upset the Rockets as 6.5-point road dogs, while also beating the Celtics by 6, Magic by 19 and Mavericks by 12 at home. Bet the Pistons Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Bucks -6

The Indiana Pacers are decimated with injuries right now. They opened the season without Haliburton and McConnell, and they have since lost Mathurin, Nembhard and Toppin to injury. They cannot be competitive with a team like the Bucks without these guys.

The Bucks are fully healthy with the exception of Kevin Porter Jr., who was lost in the opener. The Bucks have played well without him and have a healthy Giannis now and should make easy work of the short-handed Pacers. I like that the Bucks are coming off an upset loss to the Kings to refocus them after an upset win over the Warriors in their previous game.

Milwaukee is also playing with playoff revenge after getting knocked out by the Pacers last season. Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Lakers OVER 233.5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

Playing at the league's fastest tempo produced a 125-121 loss to the Magic for 246 combined points and a 146-114 win over the Grizzlies for 260 combined points in their first two games of the season.  They also came through with a 144-117 home win over the Hornets last time out for 261 combined points. These games are sailing OVER the total.

The Lakers really profile as an OVER team with an elite offense led by Doncic and Reaves, but a terrible defense. The Lakers are 5-1 OVER in their six games this season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Heat/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

The Heat have opened 3-2 SU & 4-0-1 ATS this season with their two losses coming by 4 and 6 points to the Magic and Spurs, respectively.  They crushed Memphis 146-114 on the road as 3-point dogs, beat the Knicks 115-107 as 3.5-point home dogs, and crushed the Hornets 144-117 at home as 4.5-point favorites.  This is the most undervalued team in the NBA right now.

The Lakers are 4-1 in their last five games overall but have done it against a very soft schedule. They are coming off consecutive narrow road wins over the Timberwolves by 1 and Grizzlies by 5 in the NBA Cup. They are primed for a letdown spot here after that NBA Cup win.

The Heat are the much fresher team after having the last two days off, while the Lakers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. Bet the Heat Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Hawks +6.5

The Atlanta Hawks are proving they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. They have managed to win their last two games without Trae Young. He got hurt in the 1st quarter of their 117-112 win at Brooklyn. The Hawks went on to beat the Pacers 128-108 on the road last time out without Young.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are banged up right now which explains their blowout losses at Boston by 20 and at home to Toronto by 11. But they continue to get a lot of respect from the books based on what they did last season. They just aren't that team right now.

The Cavaliers are without Garland and Strus right now, and Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen remain questionable. I would like the Hawks either way, but this line will crash if Mitchell is ruled out again. Bet the Hawks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dumpster fire this season and now JA Morant is suspended. The Grizzlies are 3-3 SU but 2-4 ATS in their six games this season. They lost by 13 to the Warriors and by 32 to the Heat.

The Raptors are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in my opinion and should make easy work of the Morant-less Grizzlies tonight. Memphis also remains without Jerome, Pippen Jr., Clarke and Edey to really take away their depth.

Toronto is coming off a 112-101 road win at Cleveland and has played a pretty tough schedule this season. They have played four road games and two home games, while the Grizzlies have played four home games and two road games. The Raptors will be motivated for their first home win of the season here. Bet the Raptors Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -5.5

This is a great spot for the Houston Rockets and a terrible one for the Boston Celtics.  The Rockets come in on two days' rest, while the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a thrilling NBA Cup win over the 76ers by a final of 109-108 on the road last night.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Celtics.

They will have nothing left in the tank for the Rockets tonight.  Brown, Pritchard and White are good players but they just can't carry this team in these spots.  They are starting Queta and Minott and have arguably the worst big men in the league.  Sengun, Adams and company will dominate them inside.

Houston has shown its potential after two tough losses to start the season by a combined 5 points, including a road loss to OKC by 1 in OT.  The Rockets have bounced back with a home win over the Nets by 28 and a road win over the Raptors by 18.  They will get margin on these tired Celtics tonight, too.  Bet the Rockets Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Golden State Warriors -10.5

This is a great spot for the Golden State Warriors and a terrible one for the Indiana Pacers.  The Warriors had yesterday off while the Pacers were playing in a NBA Cup game against the Atlanta Hawks, so they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Pacers can't handle back-to-backs right now with how short-handed they are.  They started the season without Haliburton and McConnell, and they have since lost Mathurin, Nembhard and Topping to injury.  It's no wonder they have opened the season 0-5, and it's not going to get any easier for them tonight.

The Warriors will be fully focused after letting down their guard in an upset loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last time out when the Bucks ruled out Giannis right before the game.  The Warriors thought they could just show up and win.  They won't have that mindset again tonight, and they will win with plenty of room to spare.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -10.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a dumpster fire this season.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their four games while getting outscored by 19.0 points per game.  There isn't much to like about this team other than Zion Williamson, who is already banged up to start the season.  This is one of the worst rosters in the league.

The Clippers have one of the best rosters in the league.  The starting 5 of Harden, Leonard, Zubac, Beal and Dunn is elite.  And the bench of Collins, Jones Jr., Collins, Lopez, Batum and Paul is about as good as it gets.

The Clippers have been impressive in their two home games this season beating the Suns by 27 and the Blazers by 7.  They lost their two road games to Utah and Golden State.  They are coming off a blowout loss to the Warriors where they went ice cold in the 2H.  They have had the last two days off to correct their mistakes, and they should be fired up to bounce back here against the weakest opponent they have faced yet this season.  

Look for them to take out their frustration on the Pelicans tonight, and they have incentive to get margin with this being a NBA Cup game and point differential a key tiebreaker.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Blazers OVER 238.5

Friday marks the start of the NBA Cup.  These games are played much differently than any normal regular season game.  Point differential is a tiebreaker to determine which teams advance, and it comes into play a lot.  Teams have incentive to win by as many points as possible, so they don't take their foot off the gas when they are ahead.  The same can be said for the trailing teams as they push harder to try and cut into deficits in the 4th quarter.  As a result, these games tend to be more high-scoring.

Both the Blazers and Nuggets are dead nuts OVER teams as it is.  The Blazers are 4-1 OVER in their five games this season, including 270 combined points at the end of regulation with the Jazz last time out.  The Nuggets are 3-1 OVER in their four games this season finishing with 241 or more combined points in three of their four games.

The Blazers rank 2nd in pace this season as they are playing a frenetic brand of basketball.  They will control the tempo playing at home.  The Nuggets rank 3rd in offensive rating and should be fully healthy coming into this one.  They are scoring 128.3 points per game on 52.7% shooting and should get whatever they want against the Blazers in this one.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Nuggets and Blazers finishing with 237 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Lakers/Grizzlies NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 238

Friday marks the start of the NBA Cup.  These games are played much differently than any normal regular season game.  Point differential is a tiebreaker to determine which teams advance, and it comes into play a lot.  Teams have incentive to win by as many points as possible, so they don't take their foot off the gas when they are ahead.  The same can be said for the trailing teams as they push harder to try and cut into deficits in the 4th quarter.  As a result, these games tend to be more high-scoring.

Both the Grizzlies and Lakers are dead nuts OVER teams as it is playing great offense and terrible defense.  The Lakers are 5-0 OVER in their five games this season despite playing without Luka Doncic and LeBron James.  Well, Doncic is expected back tonight for the NBA Cup.  The Lakers rank 18th in defensive rating and will be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.

The Grizzlies are 3-2 OVER in their five games this season finishing with 249 or more combined points three times.  Memphis ranks 3rd in pace and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  The Grizzlies rank 17th in defensive rating at this point.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lakers and Grizzlies finishing with 240 or more combined points in seven of those eight meetings!  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Knicks/Bulls OVER 233.5

Friday marks the start of the NBA Cup.  These games are played much differently than any normal regular season game.  Point differential is a tiebreaker to determine which teams advance, and it comes into play a lot.  Teams have incentive to win by as many points as possible, so they don't take their foot off the gas when they are ahead.  The same can be said for the trailing teams as they push harder to try and cut into deficits in the 4th quarter.  As a result, these games tend to be more high-scoring.

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  Their trend of playing faster last season has continued this season as they rank 6th in pace.  They went for 239 combined points with the Kings and 251 with the Hawks in their last two games coming in.

The Knicks are loaded offensively this season and will be up against a Bulls defense that will be the weakest they have faced yet after having to go up against the Cavs, Celtics, Heat and Bucks to this point.  I think the Knicks will put up their highest point total of the season tonight.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Bulls and Knicks finishing with 239 or more combined points four times, including 265, 247 and 245 in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Heat/Spurs OVER 232.5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

Playing at the league's fastest tempo produced a 125-121 loss to the Magic for 246 combined points and a 146-114 win over the Grizzlies for 260 combined points in their first two games of the season.  They did go for just 222 combined points against the Knicks in their next game, but the Knicks shot 39% from the field and 28% from 3.  They came back with a 144-117 home win over the Hornets last time out for 261 combined points.

The Heat rank 7th in offensive rating this season and take on a Spurs team that ranks 6th in offensive rating.  The Spurs have a lot of talent surrounding Victor Wembenyama, who has been a monster offensively to start the season.  Castle, Vassell, Johnson and Dylan Harper have played well to start, and this team has pretty good offensive chemistry former from late last season.

But this is a big step up in class for this San Antonio defense after getting to face the Raptors, Nets, Pelicans and Mavericks.  I don't think they will be ready for what the Heat bring to the table here playing at a breakneck pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +6

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

The Heat have opened 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season with their lone loss coming by 4 in their opener at Orlando as 8-point dogs.  They came back and crushed Memphis 146-114 on the road as 3-point dogs, beat the Knicks 115-107 as 3.5-point home dogs, and crushed the Hornets 144-117 at home as 4.5-point favorites.  This is the most undervalued team in the NBA right now.

You could make the argument that the Spurs are undervalued as well, going 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS to start the season.  But it's the Spurs that are 6-point favorites here when this line should be much closer to PK.  And this will be a big step up in class for the Spurs after beating four of the worst teams in the NBA in the Mavericks, Pelicans, Nets and Raptors to start the season.  Those four teams are a combined 3-16 this season!

The Heat own the Spurs, going 9-1 SU in their last 10 meetings including five consecutive victories.  Their lone loss came by 4 points.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Hornets OVER 239

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Orlando Magic visit the Charlotte Hornets.  The Magic are 3-2 OVER this season with 251, 260 and 246 combined points in their three OVERS.  The Hornets are 4-0 OVER this season with 253, 246, 252 and 261 combined points in their four games.

The Hornets will remain a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy.  They rank 4th in pace, 4th in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating.  The additions of Collin Sexton (18.5 PPG, 58.1% FG's) and Kon Knueppel (16.0 PPG, 52.3% FG's) have only added more firepower for them offensively.

The Magic were previously a dead nuts under team.  But they completely changed their offensive philosophy this season.  They rank 9th in pace and are making a point of playing faster.  It has hurt them defensively as they rank 23rd in defensive rating.  They allowed 135 points to the Pistons, 136 to the 76ers and 121 to the Heat.  Both teams will get whatever they want offensively in this game, and it will see a ton of possessions with two Top 10 teams in pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Jazz OVER 233

The Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They rank 6th in pace and have one of the best young rosters in the NBA.  The Jazz have some offensive firepower, but they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.

The Blazers are 3-1 OVER this season going for 230 or more combined points in three of their four games.  The only game that stayed under was against the Clippers, who are a dead nuts under team playing at one of the slowest paces in the NBA and also one that plays sound defense.

The Jazz are 2-1 OVER in their three games including 237 combined points with that same Clippers team and 248 at the end of regulation against the Suns.  Both of those games were at home, where they tend to score more.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Blazers and Jazz finishing with 236 or more combined points in four of the last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Bulls -4.5

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA to start the season.  The Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with three upset wins over the Hawks, Magic and Pistons.  They remain undervalued here as only 4.5-point favorites at home over the Kings, especially when you consider the favorable spot they are in.

The Bulls had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 8 days.  The Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days after a tough 107-101 road loss at Oklahoma City last night.  They gave up a 17-4 run at the end.

I was on the Kings +10.5 last night because it was a good spot for them as the Thunder were short-handed and playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But now I'm fading them here as I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Bulls, who will test their tired legs by playing at a frenetic pace tonight.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Kings last night.

The Kings are 1-3 SU with their lone win coming by a single point at home against the lowly Utah Jazz.  They also lost to the short-handed Suns, the short-handed Lakers and the short-handed Thunder at the time they played them.  The Bulls are at near full strength tonight and will blow the Kings out of the building.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks/Nets OVER 235.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They play fast and they play no defense.  Now they face a Brooklyn Nets team that also plays no defense.  This game should sail OVER this 235.5-point total tonight.

The Nets rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating allowing 131.2 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks are 24th allowing 118.1 points per 100 possessions.  But the Hawks are elite offensively, and the Nets have some scoring punch in the likes of Cam Thomas, Michael Porter Jr. and Terance Mann.

The Nets are 3-1 OVER in their four games this season combining for 253 points with the Hornets, 255 with the Cavs and 246 with the Rockets, who are a dead nuts under team that plays at the slowest pace in the NBA.  The Hawks went for 256 combined points with the Raptors and 251 with the Bulls.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 236 or more combined points in all three meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Warriors NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1.5

This is a very favorable spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  The Clippers had yesterday off and haven't had to play a back-to-back yet this season.  They have two more days off after this game, so they will be fully focused and ready to go.

This is a terrible spot for the Warriors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 131-118 home win over the Memphis Grizzlies last night.  It will be their 2nd back-to-back already this season.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Warriors rest some guys tonight.  All five starters played at least 27 minutes last night, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Clippers, who are one of the deepest teams in the NBA this season.

The Clippers simply own the Warriors.  They have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Clippers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are very fortunate to be 4-0 this season.  They beat the Rockets and Pacers in OT, and they only beat the Mavericks by 7.  They should not be favored by double-digits tonight given all their injuries and their disadvantage in the rest department.

The Thunder couldn't possibly be more tired than they are right now.  Those two OT games took a lot out of them, and now they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 101-94 win at Dallas last night.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes last night.

The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe tonight.  These injuries are a big reason the Thunder haven't been blowing teams out on the regular like they did last season.

The Kings couldn't be more rested as they had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game of the season.  They are also highly motivated for a win after opening 1-2 with both losses coming by 4 and 7 points.  The Kings are also pretty much fully healthy with a very good starting lineup and two nice pieces off the bench in Monk and Westbrook.  Bet the Kings Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Heat OVER 239.5

This is a matchup between two dead nuts OVER teams that should be one of the highest-scoring games of the season by the end of regulation.  Both the Heat and Hornets want to play fast this season, and that will be on display tonight.

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

Playing at the league's fastest tempo produced a 125-121 loss to the Magic for 246 combined points and a 146-114 win over the Grizzlies for 260 combined points in their first two games of the season.  They did go for just 222 combined points against the Knicks in their next game, but the Knicks shot 39% from the field and 28% from 3.

Charlotte ranks 5th in pace this season and will play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy and running the show.  The additions of rookie Knueppel and Collin Sexton from the Jazz give this offense some more juice.  The Hornets actually rank 2nd in offensive rating this season.

The Hornets went for 253 combined points with the Nets, 246 with the 76ers and 252 with the Warriors for a 3-0 OVER start to the season.  This total of 239.5 actually isn't that high for a game involving the Hornets, especially when you factor in they are playing the team that ranks No. 1 in pace this season in the Heat.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Blazers/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 226.5

The Lakers are 3-0 OVER in all games this season going for 228 combined points with the Warriors, 238 with the Timberwolves and 247 with the Kings.  And that effort against the Kings came without both Luka Doncic and LeBron James.  Their bench is terrible defensively but they can provide some offense, which is why they remain an OVER team.

The Blazers played at the fasted pace in the NBA in the preseason, and they currently rank 7th in pace through three games despite playing three teams that like to play slow while also playing great defense in the Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves.  They went for 232 combined points with the Timberwolves, 258 with the Warriors and 221 with the Clippers.

The pace was there to cash the OVER against the Clippers last night, but the shooting was not.  The Blazers short 37% from the floor and 11-of-41 (27%) from 3-point range.  They will clearly shoot much better against the Lakers, one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are a in a world of hurt right now without their two best players in Luka Doncic and LeBron James.  They managed to beat the Kings last night without these two thanks to a career game from Austin Reaves, who scored 51 points.  But he won't be able to do that again, and the Lakers will struggle on the 2nd of a back-to-back here.

Reaves played 39 minutes, Hachimura played 40 and Ayton 36 last night.  The Lakers also lost starting G Gabe Vincent to injury in that game and he is out for this one now.  They are just so short-handed right now, and the Blazers will test those tired legs playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA.

The Blazers hung tough in a 7-point road loss to the Clippers last night.  So there is no travel involved which will keep them fresh.  The Blazers are one of the youngest, deepest teams in the NBA so they will be able to handle this situation better than the Lakers.

The Blazers are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS this season only losing by 4 to the Timberwolves, beating the Warriors by 20 and losing by 7 to the Clippers.  So they have played a brutal schedule thus far, and this is a big step down in class for them here against a Lakers team without three starters.  Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -5.5

This is a very favorable spot for the Nuggets.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 3rd game of the season.  The Timberwolves will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game of the season already.

Making matters worse for the Timberwolves is that they lost their best player in Anthony Edwards for two weeks in their 114-110 win over the Pacers last night.  They will be pretty lost without him as Edwards just doesn't miss games and has played through injury his entire career thus far.

That was a very short-handed Pacers team last night and the Timberwolves struggled to put them away.  All four starters other than Edwards played at least 34 minutes, so they won't have much left in the tank for the Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets are fully healthy to open the season and one of the best teams in the NBA when that's the case.  Jokic, Gordon, Murray and Braun are back and they replaced Michael Porter Jr. with Cam Johnson, who is a more consistent performer night in and night out.  I like the depth they added on the bench with Hardaway Jr, Brown and Valanciunas to go along with Peyton Watson.  The rested Nuggets will make easy work of the short-handed, tired Timberwolves tonight.  Bet the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/76ers OVER 226.5

The Magic have transformed into more of an OVER team this season with the addition of Desmond Bane and the return to health of Jalen Suggs.  They have made a point of playing faster, as evidenced by them ranking 6th in the NBA in pace to this point.

The 76ers are 2-0 OVER in their two games this season going for 233 combined points with the Celtics and 246 with the Hornets.  They have two great guards in Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe, and they have to go smaller without Joel Embiid tonight.  That should help with the OVER.  The 76ers are 7th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Lakers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 229.5

Both the Kings and Lakers look like dead nuts OVER teams this season with all offense and no defense.  The Lakers rank 4th in offensive rating and 24th in defensive rating through two games. The Kings rank in the middle of the pack in both.

The Lakers are 2-0 OVER in their two games this season combining for 228 points with the Warriors in their opener and 238 points with the Timberwolves last time out.   Luka Doncic had 49 points against the Timberwolves and is all offense and no defense again this season.

The Kings combined for 236 points with the Suns in their opener.  They only went for 209 with the Jazz last time out, but both teams shot very poorly.  The Jazz shot 13-of-41 from 3, and there were very few fouls called and easy points for both teams.

Both teams have pretty small lineups, particularly the Kings who are going with LaVine, Schroder, DeRozan, Jones and Sabonis and bringing Monk, Westbrook and Ellis off the bench.  The Lakers go Doncic, Reaves, Hachimura, Vincent and Ayton, who is a good offensive big man but doesn't provide much defensively.  I also like LaRavia who is instant offense off the bench.

The Lakers and Kings have gone for at least 227 combined points in 12 of their last 14 meetings, including 234 or more in 10 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Clippers OVER 225.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team, and this total of 225.5 is very low for a game involving them.  The Blazers played at the fasted pace of any team in the preseason, and they are currently 5th in pace through two games this season.

Portland lost 118-114 at home to Minnesota for 232 combined points and beat Golden State 139-119 for 258 combined points in its first two games this season.  This is a young, deep lineup that likes to get out and run and force the pace with pressure defense as well.

The Clippers lost 129-108 to the Jazz for 237 combined points and beat the Suns 129-102 for 231 combined points.  They played at a snail's pace in both games and still easily topped this total.  It was played slower because of the blowout nature of the two games as starters were pulled in the 4th quarter of both.

This should be a competitive game so both teams should be playing their starters deep into the 4th quarter.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Blazers and Clippers with 232 or more combined points in five of those eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Hawks OVER 235.5

The Atlanta Hawks will be a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are loaded with talent offensively but will be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA once again this season.  They will play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA again, and they will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Hawks ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace last season.  They ranked 4th in NBA in pace in the preseason.  They are loaded offensively this season with Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Zacharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis.  They also added shooters in Luke Kennard and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

The Hawks lost 138-118 at home to the Raptors in their opener for 256 combined points.  They came back with a 111-107 win at Orlando for 218 combined points.  But both teams shot terrible from 3-point range in that game.  The Hawks shot 8-of-29 (28%) while the Magic shot 9-of-31 (29%) and it still got to 218 points.

The Thunder ranked 5th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating last season.  They will be a juggernaut again with basically everyone back.  They will be without Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe for this one, and Williams was one of their best defenders last year.  No question they will miss both on offense, but they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  They will also be without Alex Caruso, who brings a lot more to the table defensively than he does on offense.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 243 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/76ers OVER 233.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team when La'Melo Ball is healthy and running the show.  Well, he's healthy to start the season, and we saw how potent the Hornets can be offensively with a 136-117 win over the Nets in their opener for 253 combined points.  What's amazing about that is there were only 45 combined points in the 4th quarter due to the blowout nature of the game.

Ball had 20 points and 8 assists in 33 minutes.  Brandon Miller is back healthy this season and had 25 points.  Ryan Kalkbrenner had 10 points and 11 rebounds, MIies Bridges has 18 points and rookie Knueppel had 11.  In fact, the Hornets had nine different players score in double figures.  I love that Collin Sexton comes off the bench to run the 2nd team so there isn't a huge drop off from Ball to him.  The Hornets will play fast, and they will be an elite offensive team and terrible defensive team again this season.

The 76ers are coming off a 117-116 road win over the Celtics in their opener for 233 combined points.  That's a Celtics team that lacks a lot of firepower due to injuries and personnel losses, and one that managed just 95 points against the Knicks in their next game out.

Philadelphia has a healthy Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid to start the season.  Maxey had 40 points against the Celtics and is a sleeper to win MVP.  But the real story is the sleeper to win Rookie of the Year in Baylor's VJ Edgecombe, who had 34 points in the opener.  And that dynamic backcourt duo is a reason the 76ers are going to be an OVER team this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -9.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have one of the most talented, deepest rosters in the NBA this season.  Back are James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Ivaca Zubac, Kris Dunn and Bogdan Bogdanovic.  They nabbed one of Utah's best players in John Collins, and they added Bradley Beal to make up for the loss of Norman Powell.  They also added Chris Paul and Brook Lopez.  They are easily going to be able to go 10-12 deep, and there isn't going to be much of a drop off when they turn to their bench.

In their last preseason game which they played their starters, the Clippers crushed the Kings 119-101 who were also playing their starters big minutes.  They actually led that game by 29 points entering the 4th quarter, which is a sign of things to come for this team this season as they are an absolute wagon.

But after a stunning 129-108 road loss as 9.5-point favorites at Utah in their opener, it's time to 'buy low' on the Clippers tonight.  This will be their home opener, and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder to make amends for that defeat.

The Suns are 'fat and happy' off a 120-116 home win over the lowly Kings who were without Domantas Sabonis.  This will be a big step up in class for them, and they are without Jalen Green, who they were going to rely on to be Devin Booker's sidekick this season.  The Suns are lacking offense this season.  Their starting 5 is Booker, Brooks, Ighodaro, Dunn and Allen and there's not a lot to like off the bench, either.  I give them little chance of keeping this game competitive tonight.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Magic OVER 228.5

The Atlanta Hawks will be a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are loaded with talent offensively but will be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA once again this season.  They will play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA again, and they will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Hawks ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace last season.  They ranked 4th in NBA in pace in the preseason.  They are loaded offensively this season with Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Zacharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis.  They also added shooters in Luke Kennard and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

The Hawks lost 138-118 at home to the Raptors in their opener for 256 combined points.  This total of 228.5 is very low for a game involving the Hawks this season.

The Magic have a reputation of being an under team which is keeping their totals lower than they should be early in the season.  But they added Desmond Bane to give them some much-needed offensive punch, and Jalen Suggs is healthy to start the season which is huge as he is the floor general for this team.

The Magic opened the season with a 125-121 home win over the Heat for 246 combined points.  That was a Heat team without leading scorer Tyler Herro due to injury as well.  Bane had 23 points in his debut, while Banchero and Franz Wagner each had 14.  Suggs has 14 on 6 of 7 shooting.  The Magic will hang a big number on the Hawks, and Atlanta will be able to keep pace in a shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors PK

The Toronto Raptors are my favorite sleeper in the NBA this season.  They added Brandon Ingram and brought back their core of RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, Grady Dick, Jamal Shead, Ochaei Agbaji and Jonathan Mogbo.  The Raptors ranked 1st in the NBA in defensive rating after the All-Star Break last season while going 27-16 ATS over their final 43 games.  Ingram will add some offensive punch to this lineup.

So far so good as the Raptors went into Atlanta and beat a Hawks team that was getting a lot of hype coming into the season.  They beat them thoroughly to boot, winning 138-118 as 5.5-point underdogs.  It was a balanced effort with seven players finishing in double figures scoring.  The Raptors remain undervalued as a PK at home against the Bucks tonight.

The Bucks are without Damian Lillard this season, and Kevin Porter Jr. was supposed to have a huge season in his place.  But Porter Jr. suffered an ankle injury in the opener and is now out for this game.  He had 10 points in just over 9 minutes before exiting, so it's a big blow to the Bucks with how much they were planning on relying on him to be Giannis' sidekick this season.

The Bucks were still able to win and cover in a 133-120 victory over the Wizards as 10-point favorites in the opener, but the Wizards are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  This will be a big step up in class for them against the Raptors tonight.  Barnes is one of the best defenders in the NBA and one of the few guys that can hold his own against Giannis.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* Thunder/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder were already without Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe when they were fortunate to escape with a 125-124 (2 OT) win over the Houston Rockets in their opener on Ring Night.  That was a special night for them, and this will be a letdown spot for them going on the road to face the team that they already beat in the NBA Finals.

This is a step up spot for the Pacers, who want revenge on the Thunder after losing in 7 games last year.  They don't have to wait long to get that revenge, and they will be fully focused and motivated to get it.  They are in the favorable spot here with the Thunder playing the 2nd game in 3 days off a double-OT thriller.

So the Thunder were already without Williams (21.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.6 SPG last season) and Joe (10.2 PPG LY), and then they lost Alex Caruso (7.1 PPG) to a concussion against the Rockets.  They also had both Lu Dort (10.1 PPG) and Cason Wallace (8.4 PPG) suffer injuries to the Rockets, and both are questionable.  So they could be without three starters and up to five key rotational players tonight.

That helps the Pacers make up for the loss of Tyrese Haliburton as they have been planning all preseason to play without him.  The Pacers were one of the deepest teams in the NBA last season which is a big reason they made the run they did to the NBA Finals.  The core is back with Nembhard, Mathurin, Nesmith and Siakam in the Starting 5 and I'm confident they can all take their games to the next level.  Isaiah Jackson is ready for the featured role at center, and they still have Ben Sheppard and Obi Toppin coming off the bench.  I expect a big effort from Indiana tonight.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* Spurs/Mavs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 225

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts UNDER team this season going with the rare 2-big lineup of Anthony Davis and Derek Lively II.  They will be without Kyrie Irving to start the season, so they are even more of an UNDER team until he returns.  But they should be one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and they will be playing slower with the 2-big lineup.

The San Antonio Spurs ranked 24th in pace in the preseason and won't be playing fast until De'Aaron Fox returns from injury.  He is a dead nuts OVER player as an elite scorer and terrible defender, so not having him on the court makes the Spurs an UNDER team.  Stephon Castle will have to run the offense until he returns.  Victor Wembanyama anchors what should be a pretty good San Antonio defense.

And that's another reason to like the UNDER because there may be no other team in the NBA that matches up as well with Wembanyama as the Mavericks, who can stick Lively II and Davis on him.  And vice versa, Wembanyama will make life tough on Davis when he is on him.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -9.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have one of the most talented, deepest rosters in the NBA this season.  Back are James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Ivaca Zubac, Kris Dunn and Bogdan Bogdanovic.  They nabbed one of Utah's best players in John Collins, and they added Bradley Beal to make up for the loss of Norman Powell.  They also added Chris Paul and Brook Lopez.  They are easily going to be able to go 10-12 deep, and there isn't going to be much of a drop off when they turn to their bench.

In their last preseason game which they played their starters, the Clippers crushed the Kings 109-101 who were also playing their starters big minutes.  They actually led that game by 29 points entering the 4th quarter, which is a sign of things to come for this team this season as they are an absolute wagon.

The Utah Jazz are the consensus worst team in the NBA this season and it's really not even close.  They lost John Collins, Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson in the offseason.  They are going to start rookie Ace Bailey, Taylor Hendricks, Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler with Isaiah Collier and Georges Niang out to start the season.  Keyonte George will move in to the starting lineup, and the washed Jusuf Nurkic will be expected to back up Kessler.  This is just an awful lineup, and no question it's only a matter of time before they trade away Markkanen and he knows it.

The Jazz went 17-65 last season and won't be any better this season.  Fans won't be that excited to see them at home at any point this season, which will lessen their home-court advantage.  The Clippers went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Jazz last season with three wins coming by 11, 37 and 20 points.  They are 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings with five of the wins coming by 11 points or more.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.  

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors +6

The Toronto Raptors are my favorite sleeper in the NBA this season.  They added Brandon Ingram and brought back their core of RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, Grady Dick, Jamal Shead, Ochaei Agbaji and Jonathan Mogbo.  The Raptors ranked 1st in the NBA in defensive rating after the All-Star Break last season while going 27-16 ATS over their final 43 games.  Ingram will add some offensive punch to this lineup.

The Atlanta Hawks have some flashy pieces on offense, but they will once again be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.  They can't be trusted as favorites with such a terrible defense.  They went 10-18 ATS as favorites last season, including 6-12 ATS as home favorites, and 1-9 ATS as home favorites of 6 points or less.  They are now 23-45 ATS as favorites over the last two seasons.  

The Raptors are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Hawks.  Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is actually 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Toronto went 4-2 in the preseason with their two losses coming by 4 points to the Nuggets and by 2 points to the Celtics. Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Hawks OVER 234.5

The Atlanta Hawks will be a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are loaded with talent offensively but will be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA once again this season.  They will play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA again, and they will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Hawks ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace last season.  They ranked 4th in NBA in pace in the preseason.  They are loaded offensively this season with Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Zacharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis.  They also added shooters in Luke Kennard and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

The Raptors get Brandon Ingram into the lineup this season and he will give them a huge boost offensively.  I love the guard duo of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, plus Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl are back in the frontcourt.  Grady Dick adds instant shooting and offense of the bench.  The Raptors ranked 9th in pace in the preseason and want to play fast, too.

The Raptors and Hawks have combined for at least 243 points in four of their last five meetings.  The Hawks are 50-31 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Lakers NBC Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 225.5

JJ Redick has been preaching all offseason about wanting to play with more pace this season.  That's why Luka Doncic got into some of the best shape of his life, and the Lakers are going to be playing with more pace this season.  I don't think this total has been adjusted up enough to account for it.

The Lakers are going to be a juggernaut on offense this season even without LeBron James until he returns.  Doncic and Reaves are two of the better guards in the league, and the additions of C Deandre Ayton and SF Jake LaRavia will add to the offense.  The problem for the Lakers is that they will be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.  The Lakers ranked 24th in defensive rating in the preseason.

The Warriors should be a very efficient team offensively this season, and they played at the 5th-fastest pace in the preseason.  They added Al Horford who will help stretch the floor.  They will be without Moses Moody to start the season, losing a key defender.  Replacing him will be a combo of Brandin Podziemski and Buddy Hield, who are two great players on offense but certainly minus defenders.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Lakers and Warriors finishing with 226 or more combined points in all six meetings.  In fact, the OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings with 226 or more combined points in nine of those 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Thunder NBA Season Opener on OVER 227.5

Two teams that want to play with tempo square off in the opener between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder.  I'm fully expecting a high-scoring game Tuesday night in what should sail OVER this 227.5-point total.

The Rockets are having to adjust without Fred VanVleet, who suffered a season-ending injury in the offseason.  That means a lot more minutes for Reed Shepard and Aaron Holiday, who are two players who add a lot on offense and are terrible defenders, certainly not nearly the defender that VanVleet was.  They added Kevin Durant so they should be a juggernaut offensively this season, but he's also a minus defender.  They lost Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks in the offseason, and those were two great defenders as well.  They tried to replace them with another great defender in Dorian-Finney Smith, but he's out to start the season.

The Rockets ranked 6th in pace in the preseason.  They went 4-0 and it was led by an offense that ranked 1st in efficiency with a 123.2 rating.  They ranked 25th in the preseason in defensive rating at 113.6.  All four games sailed OVER the total combining for 248, 258, 267 and 235 points with their four opponents.

The Thunder ranked 5th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating last season.  They will be a juggernaut again with basically everyone back.  They will be without Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe for this one, and Williams was one of their best defenders last year.  No question they will miss both on offense, but they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Rockets and Thunder with 233 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  The only game that stayed under was in the NBA Cup Semifinals where both teams were playing with max effort defensively.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Thunder ABC No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -6.5

The Thunder are 45-8 SU at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in the playoffs at home with eight of those wins coming by 15 points or more and nine wins by 11 points or more.  

After closing as 10-point favorites in Game 1, 11.5-point favorites in Game 2, and 9-point favorites in Game 3, the Thunder are only 6.5-point favorites in Game 7 which is a huge discount.  It's too big of an adjustment.  Consider the Thunder have a 26.9 Net Rating difference in their home/road splits in these playoffs.  Bet the Thunder in Game 7 Sunday.

20* Pacers/Thunder ABC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 215.5

Game 7's in the conference finals and NBA Finals are 11-1 UNDER in their last 12 tries.  All 12 finished with 196 or fewer combined points, so this total of 215.5 is very high for a Game 7 in the NBA Finals.  The last four NBA Finals Game 7's went UNDER by an average of 17 points per game.

The Pacers and Thunder just combined for 199 points in Game 6.  The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another and that certainly favors defense.  Both of these young teams will be pretty tight for a Game 7 with the Larry O'Brien Trophy at stake, so look for this to be yet another ugly defensive battle.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.

15* Pacers/Thunder ABC ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -9

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be oozing with confidence when they return home for Game 5.  They outscored the Pacers 31-17 in the 4th quarter in Game 4 to come away with a 111-104 victory in what felt like a must-win for them.

The best unit on the floor is the OKC defense, and that was on display in the 4th quarter against the Pacers.  It will be on display again tonight when they return to OKC in front of their hostile home crowd.  Amazingly, the Thunder won and covered Game 4 despite shooting just 3-of-16 (19%) from 3-point range.  They will be much more efficient at home.

The Thunder are 44-8 SU at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in the playoffs at home with eight of those wins coming by 15 points or more.  After closing as 10-point favorites in Game 1 and 11.5-point favorites in Game 2, the Thunder are only 9-point favorites in Game 5 which is a discount.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

20* Thunder/Pacers ABC No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been deadly following a loss.  Indeed, the Thunder are 5-0 SU off a loss in the playoffs winning those five games by a total of 98 points and by an average of 19.6 points per game.

That includes their dominant 123-107 win over the Pacers in Game 2 after losing Game 1 at the buzzer.  That was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed as both teams pulled their starters early with the Thunder up by 20-plus.  Oklahoma City will respond from a Game 3 loss with a blowout win in Game 4.  The Thunder are 20-7 ATS when avenging a loss this season.

The Thunder have a lot of mistakes they can correct from Game 3 as well.  They had an uncharacteristic 19 turnovers including several on inbound passes.  They also missed a lot of free throws late.  I think after experiencing the hostile atmosphere in Indiana in Game 3, they will be more prepared for it and thus more composed.  Expect a big effort from OKC to get the win and cover and tie this series at 2-2 tonight.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

15* Thunder/Pacers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -5

The Indiana Pacers led for a total of 0.3 seconds after Tyrese Haliburton hit the game-winning just before the buzzer in Game 1.  It was a shocking result considering the Oklahoma City Thunder led the entire way and by 15 with under 10 minutes left in the 4th.  It was just another crazy comeback win for the Pacers, their 4th such improbable win of the postseason.

The Pacers shot 48% from the field and 18-of-39 (46%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  The Thunder shot 39-of-98 (40%) from the field in Game 1.  They were uncharacteristically poor from 2-point range, missing several bunnies and not capitalizing in the paint.

I came back on the Thunder -10.5 as my 25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR in Game 2.  Predictably, they would have some shooting regression in their favor.  They led by 18 at halftime and controlled the game the entire way.  They proved they were the better team in this series, and I expect them to prove it again in Game 3 tonight to take back control of this series.

Tyrese Haliburton came up limping after Game 2.  He is expected to play tonight, but he won't be 100% if he does.  They need him to be the same player he was the entire playoffs to have any chance in this series because he controls everything they do.  The other problem for Haliburton is he hasn't faced a defense that can guard him with so many different guys like the Thunder, the best defensive team in the NBA in the last 20 years.  He can't hunt out defenders on switches because the Thunder have the answers for it unlike the three teams from the East the Pacers played to get here.

The Thunder have dominated the first two games of this series despite the fact that they haven't gotten a lot out of Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.  Once those guys come along for the ride the Pacers will really be in trouble.  I expect the best games from Williams yet in Game 3.  Bet the Thunder in Game 3 Wednesday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5

The Indiana Pacers led for a total of 0.3 seconds after Tyrese Haliburton hit the game-winning just before the buzzer in Game 1.  It was a shocking result considering the Oklahoma City Thunder led the entire way and by 15 with under 10 minutes left in the 4th.  It was just another crazy comeback win for the Pacers, their 4th such improbable win of the postseason.

There's a lot of reasons to believe the Thunder will bounce back with a blowout win in Game 2.  The Pacers shot 48% from the field and 18-of-39 (46%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  They aren't going to shoot that well from 3 again in Game 2.

The Thunder shot 39-of-98 (40%) from the field in Game 1.  They were uncharacteristically poor from 2-point range, missing several bunnies and not capitalizing in the paint.  It's not like the Pacers have a bunch of defensive stoppers at the rim.  The Thunder are going to shoot it much better in Game 2.

The Thunder also managed just 11 points off of 24 Indiana turnovers.  They are a much better fast break team than they showed in Game 1.  I think they played a little tight.  Forcing a ton of Indiana turnovers is sustainable because they have been the best defensive team in the NBA in the last 20 years this season.  They will just capitalize on many more of those opportunities in Game 2.

I think the Pacers will relax after stealing Game 1.  We have seen that several times throughout the postseason alone.  They lost by 16 at Milwaukee in Game 3 after winning the first two games of that series.  They lost by 22 at home to the Cavaliers in Game 3 after hitting a game-winner in a 120-119 win in Game 2.  They lost by 6 at home to the Knicks in Game 3 after taking the first two games of the series in dramatic fashion.  They lost by 17 at New York in Game 5 after winning by 9 to take a 3-1 series lead in Game 4.

Conversely, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been deadly following a loss.  Indeed, the Thunder are 4-0 SU off a loss in the playoffs winning those four games by a total of 82 points and by an average of 20.5 points per game.  Most notably they responded from a 2-point loss to the Nuggets in Game 1 with a 43-point blowout in Game 2 at home.  The Thunder are 19-7 ATS when avenging a loss this season, including 13-3 ATS at home in this spot.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Pacers/Thunder ABC No-Brainer on OVER 230.5

This is going to be an exciting, up-tempo series that is one of the more underrated NBA Finals in recent memory.  It starts with Game 1 tonight, and I expect both teams to have their way offensively in this one.

The Pacers and Thunder met twice in the regular season combining for 243 points in Oklahoma City and 234 points in Indiana.  In fact, the Pacers and Thunder have now combined for at least 232 points in seven consecutive meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 230.5-point total.  The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with 232 or more combined points in nine of the 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in Game 1 Thursday.

15* Knicks/Pacers TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 220

The Pacers let the Knicks control the tempo in Game 5 in New York.  They won't allow that to happen at home in Game 6.  They will push the tempo and play at the break-neck pace that earned them a 130-121 win at home in Game 4 for 251 combined points.

The Pacers and Knicks have combined for 221 or more points in seven of their last nine meetings, so this total of 220 is very low for a game involving these two teams.  That's especially the case knowing the Pacers will control the tempo at home tonight and try to run the Knicks out of the gym.  Bet the OVER in Game 6 Saturday.

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers ML -165

Rick Carlisle is 4-0 at home with a chance to close out a series in his time between Dallas and Indiana.  The Pacers are 7-1 SU in their last eight playoffs games following a loss, including 3-0 in these playoffs off a loss beating the Bucks by 26 on the road, the Cavs by 20 on the road and the Knicks by 9 at home.

The Pacers basically gave away Game 5 and played like they knew they had a chance to close out this series at home in Game 6.  They weren't nearly as aggressive with pushing the tempo, and Tyrese Haliburton was very passive after posting a 30-point triple-double at home in Game 4.

Carlisle didn't play all of his cards and didn't push the buttons he will entering Game 6.  Only two starters played more than 30 minutes for the Pacers in Game 5, so they should still be very fresh.  Haliburton only attempted 7 shots for the game.  He will be more assertive, and the Pacers will get back to playing at the break-neck pace that gives them an advantage.

The Knicks are a tired team right now with no multiple days off in between games.  They play their starters so many minutes, and five players played at least 33 minutes for the Knicks in Game 5.  The Pacers playing up-tempo will give them problems and wear them down as this game goes on, and that will be the difference.  

Playoff teams who are up 3-2 and lost Game 5 on the road but have Game 6 at home are 45-14 SU & 39-19-1 ATS over their last 59 tries to close out a series.  These Game 6 home teams looking to clinch are winning by 14.3 points per game and covering the spread by 9.4 points per game in those 59 games.  Bet the Pacers on the Money Line in Game 6 Saturday.

20* Timberwolves/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves showed they could play as a team in their last two games against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  After winning 143-101 in a runaway in Game 3 at home, they took the Thunder to the wire in a 128-126 loss in Game 4.

They only lost by 2 in Game 4 despite not getting good games out of their two best players in Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle.  Edwards scored just 16 points on 1-of-7 from 3-point range, and Randle had just 5 points on 1-of-7 shooting from the floor.  They were able to overcome it by getting 20-plus points from McDaniels, Alexander-Walker and DiVincenzo.

While I don't expect the role players to be as good for the Timberwolves on the road in Game 5, I certainly expect bounce back games from Edwards and Randle to make up for it.  I think the Timberwolves have the heart to give the Thunder a run for their money and not go out quietly.

This is a very young Thunder team that could be a bit antsy with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line.  I question how well they will handle their 1st opportunity to close out this series tonight with what's at stake.  I think the Timberwolves will take them to the wire again and possibly pull off the upset.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Knicks/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on Indiana ML -130

The Indiana Pacers let the New York Knicks off the hook in Game 3.  They took their foot off the gas when Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns got into foul trouble and the Pacers built a 20-point lead, only to relinquish it all largely to backups for the Knicks.

Now that they got humbled, I expect a big effort from the Pacers in Game 4 at home tonight to regain control of this series.  Look for them to push the pace and get back to playing their style of basketball and controlling the tempo playing at home.  The pace has favored the Knicks so far this series, and I think Rick Carlisle will make the proper adjustments and tell his players to get back to playing Pacer basketball.

The problem with the Knicks is that they are a defensive liability with Brunson and Towns on the court at the same time.  Both get cooked on defense, especially Brunson.  That won't change in this series, and the Knicks aren't just going to bench their two biggest superstars due to poor defense.  The only reason they are ever off the floor is due to foul trouble, not because Tom Thibodeau made some great coaching moves.

The longer this series goes, the more Indiana's advantage in depth will take over.  The Pacers actually have reliable options off the bench, while the Knicks are really stuck to a 7-man rotation.  And there hasn't been more than one day off in between games thus far in this series.  Look for the Pacers to get a lot more from their role players than they got in Game 3 at home in Game 4.  Bet the Pacers on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* Thunder/Timberwolves ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +4

The Minnesota Timberwolves responded in a big way in Game 3.  I grabbed them +4 on the opener and it closed +3.  It opened +4 again for Game 4 and I grabbed the opener, and I expect it to close around +3 again so hopefully we get in good.

The Timberwolves shot just 15-of-51 (29%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  They weren't any better in Game 2 going 11-of-39 (28%) from 3-point range, including 1-of-9 from Anthony Edwards.  They were a much better shooting team than they should in the first two games, and that came to fruition in Game 3.

Minnesota shot 20-of-40 (50%) from 3-point range in its 143-101 victory in Game 3 to save this series.  Seven different players made at least two 3-pointers for the Timberwolves in a complete team effort.  It's true that role players play much better at home where they are more comfortable, and that is the case for Minnesota throughout these playoffs.

While I don't expect the Timberwolves to shoot 50% from 3 again in Game 4, they have a lot of margin for error considering they won by 42 points.  They should be in the 40% range, and if they are they can beat the Thunder again an even this series, and at the very least get the cover as 4-point home underdogs.  

Minnesota is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home in the playoffs this postseason.  Oklahoma City is 3-3 SU but 1-5 ATS on the road in these playoffs.  They even struggled with the short-handed Grizzlies in two road games as all three of their road wins have come by 6 points or fewer in these playoffs.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* Knicks/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on OVER 223

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play, how efficient they are offensively and with an average defense to boot.  The Knicks have their best offense in decades and that's a big reason they have made it this far.

The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings between the Knicks and Pacers with 250, 243, 253 and 239 combined points at the end of regulation in the four OVERS.  They went for 250 combined points at the end of regulation in Game 1, and 223 combined points in Game 2.  So five of their last six meetings have seen 223 or more combined points.

The OVER is 6-3 in Pacers last nine playoff games going for 230 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  They have gone for 223 or more in eight of those nine.  This 223-point total is very low for a game involving Indiana with how they play.  Offense will win out in Game 3 with the Pacers controlling the tempo at home and the Knicks forced to keep pace with them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Thunder/Timberwolves ABC ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +4

The Minnesota Timberwolves go from being 7-point underdogs in Game 1 to 8-point underdogs in Game 2 to 4-point underdogs in Game 3.  Usually there is a bigger adjustment for flipping home courts and the home team in desperation mode, but that isn't the case here.

The Thunder won and covered in both home games, so now is a good time to 'buy low' on the Timberwolves.  There is so much they can improve on that didn't go their way in those first two games, and I think they will put their best foot forward in Game 3 with essentially their season on the line here.

The Timberwolves shot just 15-of-51 (29%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  They weren't any better in Game 2 going 11-of-39 (28%) from 3-point range, including 1-of-9 from Anthony Edwards.  They are a much better shooting team than they have shown thus far in this series, and they are due some positive shooting regression in Game 3 to say the least.

More role players should step up for the Timberwolves at home and they do have a solid 8-man rotation with very few weaknesses.  Julius Randle should be much better after going 2-for-11 from the floor with just 6 points in Game 2.  The Thunder shouldn't be living at the FT line like they have in the first two games at home, either.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Pacers/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on OVER 225.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play, how efficient they are offensively and with an average defense to boot.  The Knicks have their best offense in decades and that's a big reason they have made it this far.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Knicks and Pacers with 250, 243, 253 and 239 combined points at the end of regulation in the four OVERS.  I was on the OVER 223 in Game 1 of this series and cashed easily with 250 combined points at the end of regulation, and 273 after OT.  I'm back on the OVER 225.5 again in Game 2 as I don't think it is adjusted up enough.

The OVER is 6-2 in Pacers last eight playoff games going for 230 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  This 225.5-point total is very low for a game involving Indiana with how they play.  I expect them to hang another big number on the Knicks offensively, but the Knicks to get whatever they want offensively as well.  Bet the OVER in Game 2 Friday.

20* Timberwolves/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 214

The Timberwolves and Thunder combined for at least 217 points at the end of regulation in all four of their meetings during the regular season.  That includes 253 and 242 combined points in their final two meetings on February 23rd and February 24th.

The total for Game 1 of this series got steamed up from 212.5 on the opener to 219.5 on the close.  A very slow 1st quarter kept it UNDER with just 43 points in the 1st.  Things opened up in the 2H with 110 combined points after a tight start to the series for both teams, which is predictable. I think the fact that Game 1 went under the total easily has the total for Game 2 set too short.  

Now these teams have seen each other and will know how to attack better in Game 2.  I also don't see the Timberwolves shooting so poorly from 3-point range again as they went 15-of-51 (29%) in Game 1.  They are a great shooting team and will hit more of their open attempts in Game 2.  They also shot just 35% from the field in Game 1, so they are due some positive shooting regression to say the least.  Bet the OVER in Game 2 Thursday.

20* Pacers/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on OVER 223

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play, how efficient they are offensively and with an average defense to boot.  The Knicks have their best offense in decades and that's a big reason they have made it this far.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings between the Knicks and Pacers with 243, 253 and 239 combined points in the three OVERS.  This total of 223 is very short for a game involving these two teams in Game 1 of this series tonight.

The OVER is 5-2 in Pacers last seven playoff games going for 230 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This 223-point total is very low for a game involving Indiana as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Timberwolves/Thunder ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 216

The Oklahoma City Thunder just wrapped up their 7-game series with the Denver Nuggets on Sunday.  They have had little to no time to prepare for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who also did not know who their opponent would be until Sunday.  And with a lack of preparation, that favors offense for Game 1 of this series.

The Timberwolves and Thunder combined for at least 217 points at the end of regulation in all four of their meetings during the regular season.  That includes 253 and 242 combined points in their final two meetings on February 23rd and February 24th.  This total of 216 is too low given that fact, and I expect them to sail OVER the total in Game 1 tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Nuggets/Thunder ABC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 214

Game 7 UNDERS are 25-10 after the first round in their last 35 tries.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and the longer a series goes on the more it tends to slow down and favor defense.  That will be the case in Game 7 between the Thunder and Nuggets Sunday.

The Nuggets are going to slow it down and run everything through Jokic.  They will want the ball in their best players' hands as much as possible.  The Thunder have been playing slower in the playoffs as well, and things just haven't come as easy for Shai and company as they did in the regular season.  Look for this one to slow down to a crawl with max defensive intensity with a trip to the Western Conference Finals on the line.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Thunder ABC No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -7

Give the Denver Nuggets credit for forcing another Game 7.  I just think they are running out of steam now after having to go to a Game 7 for a second consecutive series, while the Oklahoma City Thunder swept the Memphis Grizzlies in the opening round and are also the deepest team in the NBA so they can handle the extra games.

While the Thunder are fully healthy, the Nuggets are falling apart.  Jamal Murray played through the flu in Game 6, and Aaron Gordon suffered a hamstring injury in Game 6 that has his status in serious doubt for Game 7.  Even if he plays he won't be anywhere near 100%, and Gordon is as important to this team as any player not named Nikola Jokic.

Let's just look at this from a line value perspective.  In their first three home meetings with the Nuggets, the Thunder closed as 10.5-point favorites in all three games.  Now they are only 7-point favorites in Game 7, which is a 3-point adjustment down.  I'll gladly take the value and back the better, more rested, healthier team at home laying the number in Game 7.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Knicks ML -135

The Boston Celtics had an inspired effort in Game 5 to stave off elimination at home.  A lot of times you see a team play well in that first game without their superstar.  They did just that after Jayson Tatum suffered a torn Achilles late in Game 4, rallying for an inspired win in Game 5.

It's also true that a team can't sustain it past one game without their best player.  And now I expect the Celtics to fall flat on their faces for a number of reasons in Game 6 on the road.  The Celtics shot 22-of-49 (45%) from 3-point range in Game 5, and that's not going to happen again on the road in Game 6.

I would give the Celtics more of a chance without Tatum is Kristaps Porzingis was healthy and playing like the star he used to be.  But that's just not the case.  Porzingis has scored a total of 21 points in five games in this series.  He has been overcome by illness, and he only played 12 minutes in Game 5.

Everything went Boston's way in Game 5, particularly a ridiculous five fouls being called on Jalen Brunson in the 3rd quarter alone.  That's not going to happen again in New York, and the Knicks won't have their superstar foul out at home.  I think the Knicks took the Celtics lightly in their first game without Tatum as well, and they won't make that same mistake again.  

Home teams up 3-2 looking to clinch in Game 6 of the NBA playoffs are 38-17 SU since 2003.  This is my favorite bet of the playoffs thus far.  Bet the Knicks on the Money Line in Game 6 Friday.

15* Thunder/Nuggets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -4.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder closed as 7-point favorites in Denver in Game 4.  Now they are only 4.5-point favorites two games later in Game 6 in Denver.  There's clearly value on the Thunder, and there's a lot of reasons to like them to win and cover to close out this series tonight.

The Nuggets are the most tired team left in the NBA.  They had to go 7 games with the Clippers in the opening round, and now they haven't had multiple days off in a row since that series.  They have the worst bench of any remaining teams in the playoffs, and fatigue is starting to catch up with them.

We saw that play out in the 4th quarter of Game 5 as the Thunder overcame a 9-point deficit and won by 7.  Nikola Jokic couldn't have played a better game and the Nuggets still lost.  Jokic went 17-of-25 from the field finishing with 44 points and 15 rebounds.  But he got no help, and Michael Porter Jr. and his bum shoulder is a liability at this point.  Porter Jr. went 1-of-7 for 2 points in Game 5.  The only reliable option off the bench is Russell Westbrook.  Jokic played 44 minutes in Game 5 and I think he will run out of gas tonight and won't be nearly as effective.

The Thunder are the deepest team in the NBA, they swept the Grizzlies in the first round, and they remain fresh for Game 6 tonight.  They have a ton of confidence after coming up clutch down the stretch in both Games 4 and 5, and that's exactly what this team needed to get over the hump and believe they could do it.  They are the best remaining team in these playoffs and should win the title.

Home teams who are down 3-2 in a series and facing elimination when listed as an underdog are 10-31 SU & 13-28 ATS since 2003.  The Nuggets have done a good job battling through a coaching change and a lack of depth, but their run ends tonight.  Bet the Thunder in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on New York +4.5

The New York Knicks are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five road games in the NBA playoffs with four outright victories as underdogs.  They are very proud of this run on the road, and they want to keep that perfect record intact today with an outright victory over the Boston Celtics in Game 5 to clinch this series and advantage to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Jayson Tatum was having a huge Game 4 with 42 points when he went out with a torn Achilles late.  The Knicks took advantage and pulled away late.  Now with no Tatum, the Celtics have no business being favored over the Knicks.

Tatum is actually their best rebounder and one of their best defenders as well, so they are missing a lot more than just his offense.  Jrue Holiday and Al Horford have done nothing in this series and look like a shell of their former selves.  They combined for just 9 points in Game 4.  Porzingis clearly isn't right and had just 7 points in Game 4.  Their bench is no longer a weapon, and the Celtics know their fate is sealed without Tatum the rest of the playoffs.  Bet the Knicks in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -9.5

The Denver Nuggets are running on fumes.  They had to go 7 games with the Clippers in the opening round, and they haven't had consecutive days off since.  That hurts when they are the most starter-heavy team left in the playoffs putting a ton of minutes on their starters with Russell Westbrook the only reliable option off the bench.

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder swept the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round and are the deepest team left in the playoffs.  They have plenty left in the tank here and the advantage goes to them as this series goes on.

The Thunder grinded out a 92-87 road win in Game 4 to even this series, which was big for this young team to overcome that hurdle of winning basically a must-win game on the road.  They did so despite shooting just 36% from the field and 10-of-41 (24%) from 3-point range.  They relied on their #1 defense to get it done.

Now the Thunder are back home where they blew a double-digit lead late in Game 1 before crushing the Nuggets 149-106 in Game 2.  I think we get something more similar to that Game 2 performance here.  Their role players will play better, and they will certainly get more production from Shai and Jalen Williams who went a combined 10-of-32 from the field in Game 4 on the road.  Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Timberwolves/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 200.5

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts UNDER team without Stephen Curry.  Nothing comes easy for them offensively, and they have to rely even more on one of the league's top defenses to be competitive.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and the longer a series goes on the more it favors defense.

The Warriors rank 11th of the 12 remaining playoff teams in offensive rating and 6th in defensive rating despite having Curry for the majority of the playoffs thus far.  The Warriors managed just 93 points in Game 2 in their first game without Curry and 97 points in Game 3.

But the Warriors shot 10-of-23 (43%) from 3-point range in Game 3 and that is pretty unsustainable with their current lineup.  The Timberwolves shot 13-of-34 (38%) from 3-point range in Game 3, and it still saw just 199 combined points.  So both teams shot well from 3 and it still stayed under this 200.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Monday.