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25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Commanders/Lions OVER 55

These are two of the best offensive teams in the NFL up against two of the worst defenses in the league.  The books haven't set this total high enough even though it's the highest total of the playoffs.

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (33.2 PPG), 2nd in total offense (409.5 YPG) and 4th in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  The only important player on offense they are missing heading into the playoffs is RG Kevin Zeitler, but they have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and plenty of depth.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 12 defenders on IR or ruled out.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those four are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts down the stretch going 4-1 OVER in their final five games.  They accomplished it in Week 14 with a 34-31 win over Green Bay, but they couldn't in Week 15 with a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

In Week 16, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

In Week 17, the Lions beat the 49ers 40-34 for 74 combined points.  The 49ers even left some points on the board missing two field goals and a XP.  The only thing that stopped them was two bad INT's by Brock Purdy.  This game had 10 touchdowns and zero punts! That's the first time since 1937 that has happened in a game, and it just goes to show just how much of an OVER team the Lions are.

Week 18 resulted in a fluky 31-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings just couldn't punch it in in the red zone or they easily could have made that a game.  Sam Darnold had one of the worst games of his career consistently overthrowing receivers.  He also missed some wide open receivers.  Darnold had an equally terrible games against the Rams as he just couldn't handle the pressure of these must-win games.

Washington is going to be able to match Detroit score for score.  The Commanders rank 5th in scoring at 28.2 points per game, 7th in total offense at 368.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Lions are blitzing a ton to try and make up for all their injuries on defense.  It worked against the Vikings, but it's not going to work against the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels ranks 3rd in the NFL in EPA per dropback against the blitz.  He has rushed for 891 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6 yards per carry this season.  He scrambled 13% of the time against the blitz, which was more than any other QB in the NFL, and he accumulated more EPA than any other QB on his scrambles against the Blitz.

Aaron Glenn keeps blitzing heavy with this patchwork defense.  He is going to pay this week against Daniels.  The Lions have allowed a league-high 445 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.  The Lions play the 2nd-highest rate of man coverage, which is going to open things up for Daniels.  In recent seasons, Justin Fields rushed for 147, 132, 104 and 58 yards against Detroit.  Hurts rushed for 90 and Allen 78.  Stopping dual-threat QB's is something Glenn has not been able to figure out.

There's not a lot to like about this Washington defense, either.  The Commanders rank 18th in scoring at 22.8 points per game and 18th at 5.7 yards per play.  They allow 4.7 yards per carry on the ground which ranks 28th.  They play the 6th-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL this season, and Jared Goff ranks 1st in the NFL in EPA per play against man coverage.  The last team the Lions faced that played this much man covers was the Jaguars, who they hung 52 points on in Week 11.

Detroit and Washington are both aggressive on 4th downs and both have been wildly successful this season.  So these teams won't be settling for FG's they will be going for touchdowns.  The aggression will lead to more points offensively, but also possibly create some short fields for their opponents if they fail as well.

The Lions have scored at least 31 points in five consecutive games and they will get to at least 31 in this one.  I don't think it's much to ask the Commanders to get 24-plus, and I'm expecting more out of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Commanders/Lions NFC No-Brainer on Washington +10

The Washington Commanders are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games overall.  All four losses came by 8 points or less, including road losses to the Eagles by 8 and the Ravens by 7, and I would argue both the Ravens and Eagles are better than the Lions.  This makes for a 17-0 system backing the Commanders pertaining to this 10-point spread.

The reason I say the Ravens and Eagles are better is because they actually play defense.  The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and the Commanders are never going to be out of this game because of that fact.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 12 defenders on IR or ruled out.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those four are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.  The Lions rank 27th in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play this season.

Washington is going to be able to match Detroit score for score.  The Commanders rank 5th in scoring at 28.2 points per game, 7th in total offense at 368.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Lions are blitzing a ton to try and make up for all their injuries on defense.  It worked against the Vikings, but it's not going to work against the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels ranks 3rd in the NFL in EPA per dropback against the blitz.  He has rushed for 891 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6 yards per carry this season.  He scrambled 13% of the time against the blitz, which was more than any other QB in the NFL, and he accumulated more EPA than any other QB on his scrambles against the Blitz.

Aaron Glenn keeps blitzing heavy with this patchwork defense.  He is going to pay this week against Daniels.  The Lions have allowed a league-high 445 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.  The Lions play the 2nd-highest rate of man coverage, which is going to open things up for Daniels.  In recent seasons, Justin Fields rushed for 147, 132, 104 and 58 yards against Detroit.  Hurts rushed for 90 and Allen 78.  Stopping dual-threat QB's is something Glenn has not been able to figure out.  Washington remains underrated as double-digit underdogs this week.  Bet the Commanders Saturday.

20* Texans/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City -7.5

Note: I strongly recommend a 6-point teaser on the Chiefs -1.5/Ohio State -2 at the current lines as of Tuesday, January 14th.  Just make sure to get them both down to -2.5 or better. I also don't mind teasing the Chiefs -2.5 or better with the Eagles down to PK for smaller, or the Bills up to +7.5 or better for even smaller.

The Kansas City Chiefs haven't played meaningful football in 24 days by the time this game kicks off Saturday.  They needed the rest to get healthy after a grueling season that saw them go 15-1 in games started and finished by Patrick Mahomes.  You can toss out their Week 18 loss to the Broncos with all backups.

The Chiefs showed some life on offense down the stretch once they got healthy.  This version of the Chiefs offense that is entering the playoffs is much more potent than the one we saw all regular season.  Kansas City now has DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy, Isaiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce all healthy and playing together for the first time all season.

The Chiefs put up 27 points, 375 total yards and 25 first downs in a 27-19 win over the Texans at home in Week 16.  They followed it up with 29 points and 389 total yards against the Steelers in Week 17.  The Texans and Steelers grade out as two of the best defenses in the NFL.

Kansas City ranks 4th in scoring defense this season allowing 19.2 points per game.  The Chiefs get both DT Chris Jones and CB Jaylen Watson back from injury this week.  Jones was lost to injury against the Texans, and Watson hasn't played since October 20th.  The Chiefs are back to full strength defensively, and this is arguably the best defense in the NFL when that's the case.

The key weakness the Texans have is on offense.  They were already without Stephon Diggs, and now they are without Tank Dell as well.  They lost Dell after scoring a TD to cut the deficit to 17-16 in the 3rd quarter against the Chiefs int hat first meeting.  They were outscored 10-3 the rest of the way without him and couldn't get anything going on offense.

While the Texans had a good offensive showing last week at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, that was in a controlled environment in a dome.  Now this dome team has to go outdoors with temps in the teens in Kansas City on Saturday and some steady winds.  They have gone 0-3 SU in their three road games in colder weather this season losing to the Packers, the Jets and the Chiefs.  They averaged just 18.0 points per game in those three losses.

I also think the Texans are getting too much credit for that win over the Chargers last week.  Keep in mind the Chargers were up 6-0 and looking to add to it in the final two minutes of the 1st half.  But CJ Stroud picked up a fumble and converted a crazy 3rd and long and it changed the entire game.  The Texans outscored the Chargers 10-0 in the final two minutes to take a 10-6 lead into halftime.  The Chargers never recovered, and Justin Herbert played one of the worst games of his career.  Herbert threw 4 interceptions in that game after throwing a total of 3 interceptions all regular season.  It was very fluky.

Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 in his career in the Divisional Round, completing 70% of his passes with a 16-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The Chiefs have averaged 6.4 yards per play in the playoffs with Mahomes at the helm.  In the playoffs, 18 straight favorites of -7 or more have won their games straight up.  I think the Chiefs still cover -7.5 in this game, but my favorite way to play it is with a 6-point teaser paired with Ohio State on Monday.  Bet the Chiefs Saturday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +2.5

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser with the Rams +8.5/Bills -2.5. I have since added 6-point teasers with the Rams +8.5 paired with Ohio State -2.5 or better and Chiefs -2.5 or better.

The Los Angeles Rams rested starters in Week 18 and will be fresh as a result.  They returned from their bye early in the season and have been almost fully healthy since.  They have gone 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in their 11 games since the bye week excluding Week 18 when they rested starters.  Now they essentially are coming off a bye week and carrying that momentum into the NFC Wild Card Round.  

The Rams will be playing for the city of Los Angeles and the fires, so they will be extra inspired.  And I don't think the venue change to Arizona makes much of a difference.  The Rams don't have much home-field advantage anyway, and they have been great on the road this season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  They are also used to playing in Arizona, and they have decided to use the visiting locker room so they are familiar and comfortable.

Matthew Stafford has an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last seven games and I trust him a lot more than Sam Darnold in this one.  He is great at beating the blitz, and the Vikings blitz as much as anyone in the NFL.  Sean McVay is smart enough to run short crossing routes to beat the blitz.  Puka Nacua will have a huge game.

The Vikings were 'all in' in Week 18 playing for the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.  Darnold had his worst game of the season consistently overthrowing receivers.  The Vikings lost 31-9 at Detroit.  They squandered several scoring opportunities due to Darnold's ineptitude.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank playing all out for a 13th consecutive week since having an early bye in Week 6.

That was basically the first playoff game that Darnold has ever played in with pressure at the highest level.  And now this will officially be Darnold's first playoff game.  NFL teams with a QB making their postseason debut against a team with a QB that has played a playoff game previously are 19-37-1 ATS since 2002.

We have already seen this matchup once with the Rams beating the Vikings 30-20 at home as 3-point underdogs on October 24th.  This was a dominant effort for Los Angeles with 386 total yards compared to just 276 for Minnesota, so the Rams outgained the Vikings by 110 yards.  It will be more of the same in the rematch here.

Stafford went 25-of-34 for 279 yards and 4 TD with one INT in the win.  Nacua had 7 receptions for 106 yards as well.  Brian Flores isn't going to change what he does now and stop blitzing.  I also think Darnold will be under duress for four quarters playing behind one of the most suspect offensive lines in the league.  Head coach O'Connell can't help himself and keeps running deep routes for his receivers giving Darnold no outlets, and even when he has them he doesn't see them half the time.  

Los Angeles has allowed 14 points or fewer in four of its last five games not including Week 18.  The Rams have a great pass rush and the Vikings are weak at the tackle position in terms of pass blocking.  They haven't really recovered since losing LT Darrisaw as his replacement in LT Robinson is one of the worst pass blockers in the league.  

Look for DT Fiske (8.5 sacks, 10 TF), LB Young (7.5 sacks, 12 TFL) and LB Verse (4.5 sacks, 11 TFL) to get after Darnold consistently and make life tough on him like the Lions did last week.  And that's a Lions defense that is one of the worst in the NFL in their current state.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Rams Monday.

20* Packers/Eagles NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Philadelphia -4

The Philadelphia Eagles are the most complete team in the NFC.  They are as healthy as they could possibly be after resting their starters in Week 18.  Jalen Hurts returns this week, he has his full compliment of weapons, and amazingly the Eagles have all 22 starters from Week 1 healthy and on the field heading into the playoffs.

Healthy is a big issue for the Green Bay Packers.  They played their starters in the final two weeks of the season despite both games being pretty much meaningless.  Jordan Love got knocked out of their Week 18 game against the Bears, and they lost his favorite deep target in Christian Watson to a season-ending injury in that game to boot.

The Packers are limping into the postseason.  They managed just 271 total yards in a loss to the Vikings and were upset 24-22 by the Bears in Week 18 as 10-point favorites.  Love will try to play through a right elbow injury.  Watson and his 290 receptions for 620 yards is out.  Four starters are questionable on defense in LB Walker, LB Cooper, SS Williams and NB Bullard.  They are without top CB Jaire Alexander to a season-ending injury.

The Eagles have quietly gone 12-1 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The only game they lost Hurts got injured early against the Commanders in a 36-33 defeat on the road.  Their defense is elite allowing 20 points or fewer in 11 of their last 13 games during this stretch.  And their offense has taken off since both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith returned to the lineup after a Week 5 bye.  They have scored at least 24 points in 10 of their last 12 games and one game they didn't was in Week 18 when they rested their starters and started a 3rd-string QB.

Love's yards per pass attempt has dipped nearly 2.0 yards when he has been without Watson.  He throws the 2nd-most deep balls in the NFL, but most of that is due to having Watson on the field.  I think the Eagles can bottle up this Green Bay offense, which just hasn't been clicking down the stretch especially without Watson.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

20* Broncos/Bills AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on OVER 46.5

Josh Allen came out and said the Buffalo Bills were holding things back offensively since being locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC.  I think they will open it up against Denver and hang a big number here in leading the way to us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.

The Bills rank 2nd in scoring offense averaging 30.9 points per game.  Amazingly, Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in 10 of its 11 games overall in games that Allen has started and finished.  I fully expect the Bills to get 30-plus in this one, and if they do we are going to only need 17-plus from Denver, which I think we get.

The Broncos have one of the most underrated offenses in the NFL.  They have scored 24 or more points in seven consecutive games while averaging a whopping 32.6 points per game in those seven games.  Head coach Sean Payton is an offensive genius and is getting everything he can out of Bo Nix.  Payton hasn't shown all his cards yet and is saving them for the playoffs just like the Bills are.

The Broncos have good defensive numbers overall, but that is largely due to playing an easy schedule of opposing offenses.  When they have stepped up in class they have been shredded.  The Ravens put up 41 points on them, the Browns and Jameis Winston put up 32 points and 552 total yards on them, the Chargers put up 34 points and the Bengals put up 30 points on them.

The Bills have had a similar fate defensively.  Since Week 9, the Bills are 30th in success rate defensively.  They allowed 27 points to Miami, 44 to the Rams and 42 to the Lions during this stretch.  The Bills are very soft up the middle defensively, and the Broncos are No. 1 in the league in run block win rate.  Nix should get plenty of help from their running game.  

The OVER is 7-2 in Bills last nine games overall with 50 or more combined points in six of the eight games started and finished by Allen.  The OVER is 10-2 in Broncos last 12 games overall not including their Week 18 game where Kansas City rested all of its starters.  I expect the Bills to get into the 30's and the Broncos to get into the 20's.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Vikings/Lions OVER 51

Note: I released the OVER 51 in this game prior to the Lions playing the 49ers on Monday.  I had a big play on the OVER 51.5 in that Lions/49ers game, and I anticipated a shootout that would undoubtedly make the books set this total in Vikings/Lions higher.  It played out as I expected.  It's still a 25* up to 56, and a 20* at anything higher.  But I expect this game to sail OVER the total with both teams getting 28-plus points.

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (33.3 PPG), 2nd in total offense (410.5 YPG) and 4th in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  They did just lose RB David Montgomery to injury, but not having him actually makes them more of an OVER team.  They have to throw more and backup RB Jamir Gibbs is more explosive and better at catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 14 defenders on IR alone.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts the last four weeks going 4-0 OVER.  They accomplished it with a 34-31 win over Green Bay four weeks ago, but they couldn't get three weeks ago in a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

Two weeks ago, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

Last week, the Lions beat the 49ers 40-34 for 74 combined points.  The 49ers even left some points on the board missing two field goals and a XP.  The only thing that stopped them was two bad INT's by Brock Purdy.  This game had 10 touchdowns and zero punts! That's the first time since 1937 that has happened in a game, and it just goes to show just how much of an OVER team the Lions are.

Now they take on another elite offense in the Minnesota Vikings, who rank 9th in scoring at 26.4 points per game, 7th in total offense at 352.2 yards per game and 10th at 6.0 yards per play.  The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in seven consecutive games.  They are as healthy as they have been all season on offense with unlimited weapons for Sam Darnold in Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson and Jones.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 50 or more combined points in all six, including 52 or more in five of them.  That includes a 31-29 win by the Lions in Minnesota in their first meeting and 60 combined points.  The Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of the last four meetings as Jared Goff clearly has this blitz-heavy Minnesota scheme figured out.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Vikings/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +3

The Minnesota Vikings are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  That's a big reason they are 14-2 SU & 11-4-1 ATS as one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  They quietly take a 9-game winning streak into this showdown with the Detroit Lions with the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC at stake.

The Vikings are only a couple notches down from the Lions on offense right now, but the difference in these defenses is the reason I'm on the Vikings.  The Lions have the worst defense in the entire NFL in their current state.  They have 14 defenders on IR.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

The Vikings rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.8 points per game and 12th at 5.5 yards per play.  They just held Jordan Love and Packers to 271 total yards last week.  The Lions rank 28th allowing 6.0 yards per play.  They just allowed 475 total yards to the 49ers last week.

But there were even more concerning results for this Detroit defense in recent weeks.  It started with allowing 31 points to the Packers, and then 48 points and 559 total yards to the Bills in their last home games.  They gave up 382 yards and 6.0 yards per play to the Bears two weeks ago before allowing 34 points and 7.9 yards per play to the 49ers last week.  This is a bad, bad defense right now especially against the pass.

The Lions are getting too much respect for home-field advantage.  The Vikings are the better, healthier team right now and getting 3 points with them is a great value.  The difference in this game will be the Vikings getting one or two more stops than the Lions.  Sam Darnold can match Jared Goff score for score.  Bet the Vikings Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chargers/Raiders OVER 40.5

The Las Vegas Raiders have a much better offense with Aidan O'Connell at quarterback.  He has had big games in each of his last three starts throwing for 340 yards against Kansas City, 257 against Jacksonville and 242 against New Orleans.

The Los Angeles Chargers have been a dead nuts OVER team in recent weeks.  The OVER is 6-2 in Chargers last eight games overall with 44 or more combined points in six of those eight games, and 47 or more in five of them.  They have gone to a more pass-happy offense, and their defense has taken a step back.

I put out a lot of plays Sunday night, and of the ones I put out, this is the only one that gives me a little bit of pause as of this writing on Friday.  The Chargers could elect to rest starters if the Steelers win on Saturday.  They would be locked into the 6th seed if that were the case.  But if the Steelers lose, I absolutely love this OVER because the Chargers will play all their starters trying to get the 5th seed and a matchup with the Texans in the 1st round.  But Harbaugh may play all his starters either way.

The good news is that the Chargers actually have a quality backup QB now after trading for Taylor Heineke in the preseason.  He is a gun slinger and I think he would be able to put up some points against this Raiders defense.  I know Aidan O'Connell and this Raiders offense will have success either way, especially if they are playing against a bunch of backups.

Regardless, this OVER 40.5 was a good bet because as of this writing this total is up to 41.5 and 42 everywhere.  So from a line value perspective this is going to be a great bet if the Chargers play all their starters and Herbert is out there slinging it around in perfect conditions in the dome in Las Vegas.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Miami Dolphins ML -140

The Miami Dolphins are still very much alive to make the playoffs.  They have gone 6-2 SU in their last eight games to get back to .500 on the season.  They aren't about to let up now after fighting this hard just to get in this position when it looked like a lost season sitting at 2-6.

The Dolphins need to win and have the Broncos lose to the Chiefs to get in.  While the Broncos losing to the Chiefs isn't likely, we've seen several times over the years where the Chiefs rested their starters in the final week of the season but still managed to win, or at the very least keep it close.  I like that the Dolphins are playing at the same time as the Broncos so they won't know the result before they play.

QB Snoop Huntley had his best game as a Dolphin on the road in tough conditions against a very good Cleveland defense last week.  Huntley completed 22-of-26 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 52 yards and a score.  He fed Tyreek Hill early and often as Hill finished with 9 receptions for 105 yards in the win.

Head coach Mike McDaniel said on Wednesday that Huntley is in line to start as of now, but Tua Tagovailoa got in a limited practice on Wednesday and could start.  This line won't be close to PK if Tua goes.  Plus, WR Jaylen Waddle returned to practice this week, and the Dolphins didn't have Waddle last week.

While this Miami offense gets all the headlines, it's the defense that has been one of the most underrated units in the entire NFL this season.  Miami ranks 3rd in total defense allowing just 310.6 yards per game.  They are 8th in scoring at 20.6 points per game, and they have few weaknesses as they are both 9th against the run and 9th against the pass.

I think the New York Jets are just ready for this disaster of a season to be over with. They are 4-12 on the season and have lost six of their last seven games with their lone win being a comeback victory over the lowly Jaguars. Aaron Rodgers literally quit and took himself out of the game last week when they were trailing Buffalo 40-0.  While Rodgers has been a disappointment, the problems are mostly everywhere else with the offensive line and the defense both decimated by injuries.  Rodgers has no running game and no time, and he's always trying to pay catch up with this leaky defense.

The Jets are allowing 28.7 points per game in their last seven games.  They have lost their way since losing head coach Robert Saleh and MLB CJ Mosely.  Now they could be without their next two best defenders in CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams this week.  Three starters are questionable along the offensive line, and they just lost their starting LT two weeks ago.

The Dolphins didn't have a single player make the Pro Bowl which adds to their motivation.  The Jets are 0-20 SU & 1-19 ATS in their last 20 games after facing the Bills the previous week.  I'll gladly back the better, healthier team with something to play for Sunday against the banged up, flatlining Jets who are just ready for this season to be over with.  Bet the Dolphins on the Money Line Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks +1

Note: Grab the best Money Line price on the Seahawks you can find as soon as you can if you can't get +1.  They are going to go off the favorite.  I'm expecting the Rams to rest starters.

Update: This pick is the perfect example of why having a long-term package is to your benefit because you would have gotten this pick as soon as I released it.  I released this play Sunday night and ML -120 was widely available at the time of release.  The Seahawks have gone from +1 to -6.5 as of this writing.  I stated that you should find the Seahawks at the cheapest money line price you could get if you couldn't get +1.  And you could have had the Seahawks at -3 or -150 better through Tuesday.  That's when the news that the Rams would rest their starters came out and this line ballooned to -6.5.  I anticipated the Rams would rest their starters before anyone else, and I'm glad we got a great early number.  But if you're buying this later in the week and the line is -6.5 I wouldn't recommend a 25* at that number.  I still think the Seahawks win and cover, but there are better ways to play it.  Either tease the Seahawks down with either the Falcons -2.5 or better, the Vikings up to +8.5 or better, or the Dolphins at +7.5 or better.  I am not offering this play separately for purchase because of the line move as I don't think that would be fair, and only my long-term subscribers and those of you who buy the NFL 9-pack or 5-Pack have access to it.

The Seahawks have been eliminated from the playoffs and while that is a concern in terms of their motivation, I don't think it's that big of a concern.  The Seahawks have a first-year head coach in Mike McDonald and he wants to finish strong.  Geno Smith gets an extra $2 million if the Seahawks win 10 games, and they are going for their 10th win.  Smith also gets an additional $2 million if he throws for at least 186 yards.  His teammates will be motivated to get him those bonuses.

The Rams will be resting QB Stafford, WR Nacua, WR Kupp, RB Williams, G Dotson, RT Havenstein and LT Jackson among others.  Yes, Jimmy G is a decent backup, but I think he is overrated as a backup for what he did under Kyle Shanahan in his time at San Francisco. The 49ers won games because of their defense and in spite of Jimmy G's poor play.  He is a massive downgrade from the underrated Stafford.

The Rams have been one of the worst preseason teams in the NFL in the Sean McVay era.  With him treating this line a preseason game, the Rams are one of the worst teams in the NFL in their current form with all these backups.  They lack depth because of the trades they have made in recent seasons stripping them of that important depth.  They have some of the worst backups in the NFL.

The Seahawks are remarkably healthy right now and about as healthy as they have been all season.  They have the rest advantage to boot after beating the Bears last Thursday, getting that coveted mini-bye week late in the season.  I expect one of their best performances of the year here to get that coveted 10th win not only for Geno Smith, but for head coach Mike McDonald in his first season.  Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +3.5

I grabbed the New York Giants +3.5 on Sunday night.  I anticipated the Philadelphia Eagles would rest their starters because they were locked into the No. 2 seed.  They have indeed decided to rest their starters and this line is down to +2.5 as of this writing.  The Giants should be favored, so it's still worth a bet as long as they are underdogs.

The Giants are coming off their best offensive performance of the season.  They upset the Colts 45-33 on the road in what was a must-win game for Indianapolis.  Drew Lock accounted for five touchdowns with four passing and one rushing in the win.  Brian Daboll improved to 8-2 ATS in the final three weeks of the season as a head coach.  Daboll is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the final two weeks of the season.

He will have these Giants ready to go again Sunday as he is coaching for his job.  The Eagles have already announced Barkley, Hurts, Brown and Smith will sit, and obviously several other starters will be sitting as well.  Nick Siriani is playing this smart knowing that he has no incentive to win this game, and to be honest the Eagles as a franchise would be better off letting the Giants win to assure the Giants don't get a top pick and thus strike out yet again on a franchise quarterback.

Philadelphia backup QB Kenny Pickett got hurt in their last game and will likely miss this game.  That means the Eagles would be down to third-string QB Tanner McKee, who took his first NFL snaps every last week.  It's hard to see any QB for the Eagles having much success without their top three weapons in Barkley, Brown and Smith.  This is going to be an ugly offensive performance for the Eagles, and their defense is loaded at the top but the depth will be tested in a big way here.

The Giants are only missing three starters this week in LB McFadden and two offensive linemen, but their O-Line has been banged up all season.  Lock has all of his top weapons available including Nabers, Tracy, Robinson and Slayton and they are forming a nice chemistry to finish the season.  The defense is in good shape with LB Thibodeaux returning, a fully healthy secondary and Burns expected to go.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Chicago Bears +9.5

I grabbed the Bears +9.5 Sunday night anticipating the Packers would be resting starters.  This line is +10 as of this writing because Matt LaFleur is expected to play starters.  The real question is how long will they play, and I have a hard time believing they will play all four quarters.  If they don't, the Bears should not be 10-point underdogs and this will be a great bet.

Josh Jacobs has already hinted he won't be taking a full workload, and I think that will be the case for the rest of the starters.  Best case if you bet the Packers is they play all starters for an entire half.  

Green Bay is locked into the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NFC.  Of course, they would rather have the 6th seed because then they would avoid the Eagles in the first round.  But they don't have any control over it because the Commanders have the tiebreaker over the Packers.  If the Commanders beat the Cowboys, they are going to be the 6th seed.  

Head coach Dan Quinn has already said they are going to fight like hell to win that game and get the 6th seed.  I don't expect the Cowboys to offer much resistance with how banged up their are right now and coming off a 41-7 loss to the Eagles.  If the Packers see the Commanders crushing the Cowboys at halftime, they are going to pull starters.

The Packers used a lot of energy in trying to come back from a 17-point deficit to beat the Vikings last week.  They got close losing 27-25, but they managed just 271 total yards in what was a misleading final.  Jordan Love looked disinterested for much of the game because it was nearly a meaningless game for the Packers.  This game is nearly meaningless as well, and I don't expect them to put their best foot forward as a result.

I love the spot for the Bears.  They get a mini-bye week after losing by 3 to the Seahawks on Thursday.  They will be the much fresher team, and they will be the much more motivated team.  They have lost 11 consecutive games to the Packers.  They are tired of hearing about that losing streak for the last six years, and now they get a chance to end it with the Packers not fully motivated. At the very least there's a ton of value in backing Chicago as double-digit dogs this week given the favorable circumstances.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Colts OVER 44

The Colts are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 44 or more combined points in all four games.  They combined for 49 points with the Patriots, 68 with the Titans and 78 with the Giants.

That 45-33 loss to the Giants last week was alarming. The Colts gave up 5 total touchdowns to Drew Lock of the Giants.  They also allowed 422 total yards to the Patriots during this stretch, and 30 points to the Titans and 31 points to the Broncos.  This is a very bad defense, and I imagine Gus Bradley will not longer get a defensive coordinator job in the NFL after this season.

But the Colts have a very good offense no matter who is under center.  In their last two games they put up 38 points and 454 total yards on the Titans and 33 points and 446 total yards on the Giants.  Anthony Richardson got back spasms prior to the Giants game and was a late scratch, and he is questionable to play this week.  The good news is I like the Colts no matter who is under center.

Joe Flacco got the Colts in a shootout with the Jaguars in a 37-34 loss for 71 combined points in their first meeting this season in Jacksonville.  These teams combined for 944 total yards in that game.  Flacco threw for 359 and 3 touchdowns.  Whoever is under center will be able to score at will against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 28th in scoring at 25.6 points per game, 31st in total defense at 387.5 yards per game and 31st at 6.1 yards per play.

Mac Jones is a downgrade from Trevor Lawrence, but he is playing the best football of his career in Jacksonville and he is having a lot of fun, and his guys are playing hard for him.  Jones is completing 66% of his passes this season.  He has completed at least 63% of his passes in five consecutive games while throwing for at least 220 yards in four of those five.  He is in line for likely his best game of the season against this soft Indianapolis zone defense.  The Colts rank 27th in scoring defense at 25.2 points per game and 29th in total defense at 363.8 yards per game.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 52 or more combined points in all four and an average of 60.3 combined points per game.  This total of 44 is simply too short for a game involving two of the worst defenses in the NFL in perfect scoring conditions in the dome in Indianapolis.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Panthers/Falcons OVER 47.5

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-4 OVER in all games this season.  They have the worst defense in the NFL, and their offense has been greatly improved since Bryce Young got a 2nd chance.

The Panthers rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 31.0 points per game and dead last in total defense allowing 396.2 yards per game.  But their defense is even worse now due to all the injuries.  They just allowed 48 points and 551 total yards to the Bucs last week.

The Panthers are 11 players on defense listed out.  They just lost CB Jaycee Horn, NB Smith-Wade and LB Josey Jewell to add them to the list.  LB Johnson is out and LB Clowney is questionable, as is DE Robinson.  What a mash unit this defense is.

The Falcons look revived on offense under Michael Penix Jr.  He has performed as well as can be expected in leading the Falcons to 34 points in his first start against the Giants, and 24 points last week against the Commanders.  He did everything in his power to win them that game against Washington last week, but unfortunately the Falcons lost the coin flip in OT so he never got the ball to go win it.  Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson are in line for huge games against this Carolina defense as the Falcons can basically name their number.

But what cost the Falcons last week was their defense being on the field for nearly the entire 2nd half.  They wore down and couldn't get a stop in OT.  Because they were on the field for so long, I think the Falcons are going to give up a lot of points this week. They are going to wear down again in the 2H and Bryce Young and company are going to be able to put up some points late.  Young has recently put up 36 points on Arizona and 27 on Kansas City during this resurgence.

Atlanta beat Carolina 38-20 for 58 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Kirk Cousins had a big game in leading the Falcons to 38 points and 423 yards, and they rushed for nearly 200 yards as a team. The Panthers had 335 yards and plenty of success as well with Andy Dalton at QB.  He didn't have the services of Adam Thielen, who has formed a great chemistry with Young.  Thielen has 32 receptions for 405 yards and 4 TD in his last five games with Young.

This game will be played in perfect conditions in the dome in Atlanta.  I think with it being the final game of the season likely for both teams they will want to put up as big of numbers offensively as possible.  The offenses have the advantage over the defenses in this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -17

The Baltimore Ravens will be max motivated on Saturday to clinch the AFC North and the #3 seed in the AFC.  They also want revenge on the Cleveland Browns after losing to Jameis Winston on the road in their first meeting.  But they won't have to face Winston this time around.

The Ravens are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall crushing the Giants by 21 on the road, the Steelers by 17 at home and the Texans by 29 on the road.  They are about as healthy as they have been all season, and their defense is playing as well as it has all year.

Lamar Jackson is on the cusp of winning another MVP.  I think he wants to put up big numbers in this game to make his case.  Jackson leads the league's top-ranked offense rank 1st in total offense at 424.2 yards per game and 1st at 7.0 yards per play.  They are also scoring 30.2 points per game this season.

The Browns will go with a mix of Dorian-Thompson Robinson and Bailey Zappe at quarterback.  DTR has scored a total of 6 points in the last 20-plus drives for the Browns.  I would prefer he gets the bulk of the reps, but Zappe hasn't had any success in the NFL either.

Whoever is under center won't have the services of their top three RB.  Chubb is out with a season-ending injury, and both Ford and Strong went out with injuries last week and have been placed on injured reserve.  Star TE David Njoku is also out, as is WR Cedric Tillman.  The Browns have scored a total of 16 points in their last three games, or an average of 5.3 points per game.

While the Browns defense is pretty good when fully healthy, that is no longer the case.  They lost three more starters to injury last week in DT Tomlinson, LB Hicks and CB Ward, who will all be out this week.  They already had six defenders on IR.  I don't expect their defense to hold up at all this week.  

The Browns have incentive to lose this game to get the best draft pick possible as they are in a four-way tie for the worst record in the NFL at 3-13 on the season.  Management is doing everything they can to put the players on the field that give them the best chance to lose.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Ravens Saturday.

20* Lions/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (32.9 PPG), 2nd in total offense (408.6 YPG) and 2nd in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  They did just lose RB David Montgomery to injury, but not having him actually makes them more of an OVER team.  They have to throw more and backup RB Jamir Gibbs is more explosive and better at catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 14 defenders on IR alone.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts the last three weeks going 3-0 OVER.  They accomplished it with a 34-31 win over Green Bay three weeks ago, but they couldn't get two weeks ago in a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

Last week, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

The 49ers are going to make this Detroit defense pay for being down so many starters, and they will punch it in for scores like the Packers and Bills did previously.  The 49ers rank 10th in total offense at 365.7 yards per game and 4th at 6.4 yards per play.  This is still one of the best offenses in the NFL with ample weapons to get the job done.

But this has become a leaky, banged up 49ers defense especially along the front seven.  The 49ers allowed 29 points to the Dolphins, 35 to the Bills and 38 to the Packers in three of their last five games.  They just lost LB Dre Greenlaw and DE Leonard Floyd to injuries last week against the Dolphins to make matters worse.  I fully expect the Lions to score in the 30's, and the 49ers to get into the 20's at least as this thing sails OVER 51.5 combined points.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings including the 34-31 win by the 49ers in the playoffs last season that saw 65 combined points with the Lions finishing with 442 total yards and the 49ers with 413.  Both teams are a lot worse off defensively in the rematch this time around, while both offenses are still very potent.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Falcons/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +4

This line should be 3 or less, so there's value in backing the Falcons as 4-point underdogs to the Washington Commanders.  The game means more to the Falcons too as they are life and death with the Bucs tied for first place, but they have the tiebreaker.  They need to win out because the Bucs are likely going to win out with two home games against the Panthers this week and the Saints next week.

Sure, the Commanders need one more win to assure themselves a playoff spot, but they aren't as desperate as the Falcons.  They have the beat up Cowboys next week to clinch that spot if they need it.  And that sets them up for a sandwich spot.  They are coming off a huge comeback 36-33 win over the Eagles last week after a last-second 20-19 win at New Orleans the previous week.  I question how much they have left in the tank, and they could easily not be 'all in' for this game knowing they have the Cowboys next week.  

I know the Falcons are not only 'all in' for a win this week, but also 'all in' on the decision to go with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback.  He has been overlooked everywhere he has gone dating back to his time at Indiana and taking Washington to the National Championship game in college.

Penix Jr. was very impressive in leading the Falcons to a 34-7 win over the Giants in his first start last week.  He went 18-of-27 passing for 202 yards and his accuracy is a clear strength.  Even his lone INT was his TE Pitts' fault as he dropped a ball near the goal line.  Penix Jr. looked in complete control of the offense, and he is ready to open it up if he has to this week.

What is flying under the radar with the Falcons is just how dominant they have been defensively in recent weeks.  They held the Chargers to 186 total yards, the Raiders to 9 points and 249 total yards and the Giants to 7 points and 234 total yards in three of their last four games.  They are much better defensively than the Commanders.

The Falcons are also one of the most healthy teams in the NFL right now which is a big reason for their success here down the stretch.  The Commanders are dealing with three key injuries to WR Dyami Brown, RT Andrew Wylie and CB Marshon Lattimore, who are all three out for this game.  They really have a weak secondary that Penix Jr. can exploit without Lattimore.  And the Commanders rank 29th in the NFL in allowing 137.4 rushing yards per game and 29th allowing 4.8 yards per carry, so expect a big day from Bijan Robinson to take some pressure off of Penix Jr.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* Packers/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on Minnesota ML -120

If both teams were max motivated and fully healthy this line would be about right.  But that's simply not the case.  The Vikings are way more motivated to win this game than the Packers, and the Vikings are also much healthier than the Packers to boot.

The Vikings are tied with the Lions for the best record in the NFC and the No. 1 seed on the line.  They have to win this game to make their Week 18 game against the Lions meaningful and for all the marbles.  A loss would eliminate them from the possibility of winning the division if the Lions beat the 49ers on Monday.

The Packers are locked into the 5th or 6th seed in the NFC.  They essentially have nothing to play for because they cannot win the division even if they win this game.  They have four losses and the Lions or Vikings are guaranteed to finish with three losses at worst since they play each other next week.

The Vikings are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  That's a big reason they are 13-2 SU & 10-4-1 ATS as one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  They quietly take an 8-game winning streak into this game with the Packers Sunday afternoon.

The Packers are going to be without three key defenders this week in LB Quay Walker, CB Jaire Alexander and SS Evan Williams.  WR Christian Watson is questionable after getting hurt last week, as is starting NB Javon Bullard.  I think the Green Bay offense is capable of going score for score with the Vikings, but the difference is the Vikings are going to score at will against this banged up Green Bay defense.

Minnesota is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season with its only loss coming 31-29 to Detroit.  The Vikings are outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game at home with one of the best home-field advantages in the league.  You can bet its going to be the best atmosphere for any Minnesota home game all season with what's at stake and with a division rival in Green Bay coming to town.  Bet the Vikings on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Las Vegas Raiders ML -116

While many teams are hoping to lose out to get the best draft pick possible, the Las Vegas Raiders aren't one of them.  Anthony Pierce is a rebel and his players follow his lead.  Pierce and his Raiders treat every game like their life is at stake, and they will treat this one just the same.

The Raiders are remarkably healthy right now, and getting Aidan O'Connell back at QB means a lot to their offense.  O'Connell returned last week to throw for 257 yards in leading them to a 19-14 home win over the Jaguars.  This came on the heels of throwing for 340 yards and 2 TD against the Chiefs in the previous game he started and finished, which tells you all you need to know about what he's capable of.

The Saints are so beat up right now that they just cannot field a competitive team.  We saw just how bad the New Orleans Saints were earlier this season when they were without Derek Carr.  They lost 51-27 at home to Tampa Bay, 33-10 at home to Denver and 26-8 to the Chargers on the road in their first three games without Carr.  They were outscored by a total of 65 points in those three games or by an average of 21.7 points per game.

In their next game without Carr two weeks ago it was a very misleading loss to the Commanders.  Washington jumped out to a 17-0 lead and looked well on their way to a blowout.  But the Saints switched from Jake Haener to Spencer Rattler, and made a huge comeback.  The Saints ended up losing 20-19 after scoring on the final play of the game and missing the 2-point conversion.  They should have never gotten that play off as the refs stopped the clock prematurely.  They should have lost 20-13 best case, but it would have been worse if the Commanders didn't take their foot off the gas.  I think they were caught looking ahead to their huge game against the Eagles in the 2H.

Last week, the Saints got a dose of reality in a 34-0 loss to the Packers.  Rattler was indeed rattled, and he just didn't have much help with all the players he was missing.  The Saints fell to 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in games without Carr, getting outscored by an averaged of 20.0 points per game.

Carr remains out, but the Saints lost Alvin Kamara late in that loss to the Commanders and he sat out last week and was missed.  Kamara is out again this week, as are each of their top four receivers in Olave, Means, Shaheed and possibly Valdes-Scantling.  They are also without starting C Erik McCoy on offense and this offensive line is a mash unit, giving Rattler almost zero chance to be successful.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals -3

The Cincinnati Bengals have been in must-win mode the last three weeks and they have come up clutch going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They are now still very much alive to make the playoffs, and they get the exact opponent they need to beat to help their case.

The Bengals now get to host the Denver Broncos, the team they are trailing by two games with two games to go for the final wild card spot.  They would get the head-to-head win over the Broncos to give them the tiebreaker with a win, and the Broncos have the Chiefs on deck next week so it's very possible they lose out.

I think some misleading wins by the Broncos here of late have them overvalued, and the Bengals should be more than 3-point home favorites here.  The Broncos are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall but easily could have lost all four games when you dig into the box scores.

Four games ago the Bengals beat the Raiders 29-19 on the road despite getting outgained 369 to 325 by the Raiders, or by 44 yards.  Three games ago they beat the Browns 41-32 despite getting outgained 552 to 400 by the Browns, or by 152 total yards.  Two games ago they beat the Colts 31-13 despite getting outgained 310 to 193 by the Colts, or by 117 total yards.  The Colts took a TD off the board letting the ball go just short of the goal line in celebration which turned that game.  And last week they were outgained by 25 yards by the Chargers in a 34-27 road loss.

While Bo Nix and the offense have been solid, the Denver defense is the real concern here of late.  They have allowed 402.8 yards per game in their last four games, including 299.8 passing yards per game.  They have been without CB Riley Moss and fellow CB Patrick Surtain II is banged up.

That's not god news for this Denver defense having to go up against Joe Burrow and one of the best passing offenses in the NFL.  The Bengals are averaging 32.6 points per game in their last seven games.  They are averaging 313.8 passing yards per game in their last six games.  Burrow is completing 69% of his passes for 4,229 yards with a 39-to-8 TD/INT ratio this season.  I certainly trust him and his experience over rookie Nix in this game with massive playoff implications.  Bet the Bengals Saturday.

20* Seahawks/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Seattle -3

With their 27-24 loss to the Vikings last week, the Seahawks now trail the Rams by one game for the division lead with two games to go.  They cannot afford a loss to the Bears on Thursday, otherwise the Rams would clinch the division with a win over the Cardinals on Saturday, and the Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention so may not be all that motivated.

So we are going to get a max effort from the Seahawks on Thursday, and it should be enough to beat the hapless Bears by more than a field goal.  I think we are getting the Seahawks at a discount here due to coming off consecutive losses, but those losses came to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Packers and Vikings. 

They had gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their previous four games, including three of those on the road with upset wins at San Francisco, at the Jets and at Arizona.  They also outgained the Vikings 361 to 298 and deserved to win that game last week, so that misleading final certainly is playing into this line this week as well.  

Geno Smith proved he was healthy after getting injured against the Packers, throwing for 314 yards and 3 TD with 2 INT against the Vikings.  And the Seahawks are remarkably healthy everywhere with the only question being RB Kenneth Walker, but they have actually almost been better with backup RB Zach Charbonnet as he's great running and catching the ball out of the backfield.

This Seattle defense is thriving since getting healthy coming out of their bye week.  They are allowing 19.8 points per game and 309.3 yards per game in their six games since the bye, and it has come against five potent offenses and the Jets, who are improved here down the stretch.

Now the Seahawks will feast on Caleb Williams and one of the worst, most banged up offensive lines in the NFL.  Two more starting offensive linemen were knocked out of their 34-17 home loss to the Lions last week in LT Braxton Jones and LG Teven Jenkins.  Jones is for sure out, and Jenkins probably won't be recoverd on a short week.  They were already without C Ryan Bates and backup C Doug Kramer Jr.  Williams has already been sacked a league-high 60 times, and his offensive line consistently gets called for holding penalties to boot.

The Bears haven't recovered since losing on a hail mary to the Washington Commanders on October 27th.  The Bears are now 0-9 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their last three losses haven't even been close as they have lost those three games by a combined 60 points, or by an average of 20.0 points per game.  This team is on 'quit alert'.

While Williams and the offense have been a big problem all season, the defense has been even more of an issue since firing head coach Matt Eberflus.  While he wasn't a great head coach, he was a tremendous defensive coordinator.  The defense has fallen off a cliff allowing 38 points and 452 total yards to the 49ers, 30 points and 329 total yards to the Vikings and 34 points and 475 total yards to the Lions in their last three games without him.  Geno Smith and company should hang another big number on this soft defense.  Bet the Seahawks Thursday.

20* Ravens/Texans XMas Day No-Brainer on Baltimore -3

The Baltimore Ravens beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-17 on Saturday to climb into a tie for first place in the division with the Steelers.  They are max motivated right now to win the division and get a home game in the first round of the playoffs.  I expect them to show up in a big way on Christmas Day.

The Houston Texans have already clinched their division and have nothing to play for the rest of the way.  They gave an 'all in' effort to try and beat the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday but came up short in a 27-19 road loss to the defending champs.  I don't see them being motivated at all in Week 17 or Week 18.

So the Ravens are the better, more motivated team. They'll be on the road not having to deal with Christmas distractions back home, and they'll be treating it like a business trip.  I don't see the Texans being motivated at all, and they will be dealing with the distractions that come with Christmas at home.

The Ravens rank 1st in total offense at 423.7 yards per game and 1st at 7.0 yards per play.  The Texans have been broken on offense all season, ranking 16th at 323.3 yards per game and 19th at 5.4 yards per play.  I don't think the Texans have the firepower to keep up with the Ravens in a shootout.

On paper, this was supposed to be an elite Houston offense coming into the season.  But it wasn't even that great when everyone was healthy.  Now injuries have decimated them.  They lost two of their top three receivers in Stephon Diggs and Tank Dell, who suffered a season-ending injury against the Chiefs last week, and they were terrible after he went out.

Of course, it doesn't help that CJ Stroud is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game.  Now G Shaq Mason suffered an injury against the Chiefs and is questionable this week.  WR John Metchie III who would take Dell's place is also out.  S Jimmie Ward is one of the leaders of the defense and he got hurt against the Chiefs and is questionable.  They are already without DT Fatukasi and LB Al-Shaaier, while LB Harris and DE Anderson are questionable.

The Ravens are remarkably healthy on defense.  RB Hill and WR Flowers both got banged up last week, but I expect at least Flowers to go, and their offense was fine even after losing Hill to a concussion.  There's a chance WR Agholor could return this week, and WR Bateman played last week and should be good to go again this week.  We'll back the better, healthier, more motivated team on Christmas Day.  Bet the Ravens Wednesday.

15* Saints/Packers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay -13.5

We saw just how bad the New Orleans Saints were earlier this season when they were without Carr.  They lost 51-27 at home to Tampa Bay, 33-10 at home to Denver and 26-8 to the Chargers on the road in their first three games without Carr.  They were outscored by a total of 65 points in those three games or by an average of 21.7 points per game.

Last week, the final misleading final score against the Commanders is giving the Saints more respect than they deserve.  Washington jumped out to a 17-0 lead and looked well on their way to a blowout.  But the Saints switched from Jake Haener to Spencer Rattler, and made a huge comeback.

The Saints ended up losing 20-19 after scoring on the final play of the game and missing the 2-point conversion.  They should have never gotten that play off as the refs stopped the clock prematurely.  They should have lost 20-13 best case, but it would have been worse if the Commanders didn't take their foot off the gas.  I think they were caught looking ahead to their huge game against the Eagles in the 2H.

I'm not worried at all about the Packers having a letdown.  They are trying to improve their playoff positioning and this is a standalone game on Monday Night Football, so there's no chance they let down.  And anything close to an 'A' effort is going to be enough for the Packers to win this game by 2-plus touchdowns to cover this 13.5-point spread.

The Packers are 10-4 this season with their losses coming to the Lions (twice), the Vikings by 2 and the Eagles by 5.  They are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL and they are playing like it.  The Packers are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall which includes a 38-10 beat down of the 49ers at home, a 30-17 beat down of the Dolphins at home and a 30-13 beat down of the Seahawks on the road.  They outgained the Seahawks 369 to 208 last week in a dominant effort.

The Packers are about as healthy as any team in the NFL right now which is a big reason they are playing so well.  It looks like they will get CB Jaire Alexander back this week on defense.  They are fully healthy on offense, and defensively they only have two guys questionable in LB Quay Walker and NB Javon Bullard.  There's a good chance one or both play.

I always like fading dome teams that are used to playing in perfect conditions when they have to go outdoors and deal with the elements.  I don't expect Rattler and company to handle it very well this week.  It will be in the 20's at Lambeau Field Monday night with a 50% possibility of snow and rain as of this writing.  Bet the Packers Monday.

20* Bucs/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 48

The Tampa Bay Bucs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL that not enough people are talking about so it flies under the radar.  The Bucs rank 4th in scoring at 28.8 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 388.4 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play.  They average 5.2 yards per rush and their ability to run the ball finally this season has opened everything up for Baker Mayfield.

That was on display last week as Mayfield and the Bucs dissected a very good Los Angeles Chargers defense for 506 total yards in a 40-17 victory.  They have rushed for at least 152 yards in four consecutive games and have thrown for at least 268 in three of those four to boot.  But this Bucs defense remains a problem ranking 27th in the league allowing 356.9 yards per game.  Injuries have been a big problem for them, and five starters are questionable on D this week.

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team as well especially when playing at home in the dome in perfect scoring conditions.  Dallas is allowing 33.4 points per game at home this season, so the Bucs are going to continue putting up big numbers offensively.  Injuries are a big problem for the Cowboys on defense.  They have five starters questionable, and they just recently lost two key starters in LB Overshown and CB Diggs.

But this Dallas offense continues to produce even with Cooper Rush at quarterback.  They are pretty healthy all around on offense, and he is utilizing his weapons nicely, plus the running game has gotten going averaging 183.5 rushing yards per game the last two weeks.  They put up 34 points on Washington, 27 on the Giants and 30 on the Panthers in three of their last four games with Rush at QB.  The OVER is 4-1 in Cowboys last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Jaguars/Raiders OVER 40

The Las Vegas Raiders get QB Aidan O'Connell back this week and he makes all the difference for this offense.  The last time he started he diced up a very good Kansas City Chiefs defense for 340 passing yards and two touchdowns three games ago.  He got hurt early two weeks ago in their loss to the Bucs, and they were dreadful on offense with Desmond Ridder in his place for the last six quarters.

But with O'Connell back, he should torch this Jacksonville defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Jaguars rank 28th in scoring defense allowing 26.9 points per game.  They are dead last (32nd) in total defense allowing 396.4 yards per game and dead last allowing 6.2 yards per play.  They are dead last against the pass allowing 264.3 yards per game.  Their defensive coordinator is stubborn and sticking to a man-heavy scheme that allows so many big plays.

Mac Jones had a big game last week for the Jaguars leading them to 25 points and 421 total yards.  He threw for 294 yards in that 32-25 loss to the Jets that saw 57 combined points.  He is relishing this opportunity as a starting QB again to try and redeem himself for what happened in New England.  He has much better weapons with the Jaguars and he is utilizing them.

The Raiders rank 27th in scoring defense allowing 26.9 points per game.  They have seven defenders on IR including their best player in DE Maxx Crosby.  I fully expect Jones to have success against them in what looks to be a shootout between two teams that don't have much to play for.  It will also be perfect conditions in the dome in Las Vegas, and this total of 40 is very low for an NFL game in a dome.  There's clearly value with the OVER here.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers ML +102

The San Francisco 49ers are the best 6-8 team in the history of the NFL.  They rank 8th in total offense averaging 365.1 yards per game and 4th at 6.4 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in total defense at 298.8 yards per game and 6th at 5.2 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 66.3 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play, which are some of the best margins in the entire NFL despite their 6-8 record.

I like the fact that the 49ers have extra rest here after playing the Rams last Thursday.  I also like the fact that the weather will be perfect in Miami because Brock Purdy struggled in the two recent games that were affected by weather with the snow in Buffalo and the rain against the Rams.

Miami's final stand to make the playoffs was last week.  The Dolphins fell flat on their faces in a 20-12 loss at Houston as 2.5-point dogs.  Now they are basically eliminated from playoff contention at 6-8 on the season.  I also question how much the Dolphins have left in the tank this week, and I don't expect them to show up at all.

The Dolphins will be playing for a 10th consecutive week after getting a bye early in the season.  Their last three games have really taken a lot out of them losing by 8 at Houston, beating the Jets by 6 in OT and losing by 13 at Green Bay.  Injuries are really starting to pile up for them, especially on offense.

The Dolphins lost WR Jaylen Waddle early in that loss to Houston last week.  It's no wonder they struggled so much on offense as Tua went 29-of-40 passing for 196 yards with one TD and 3 INT in the loss.  Waddle had really come to life the previous three games with 21 receptions for 298 yards and a TD, and they are going to be lost offensively without him again this week.  That's especially the case with WR Tyreke Hill questionable, and without fellow WR's Dee Eskride, Braxton Berrios and Grant Dubose.  They are extremely thin at WR to say the least, and both starting offensive tacklers in Armstead and Lamm are questionable after missing last week.

The 49ers have all of their weapons healthy on offense with the exception of RB, but they've proven they can work around injuries at the position.  LT Trent Williams remains out, but they have gotten much healthier on defense in recent weeks with DE Nick Bosa and LB Dre Greenlaw back in the lineup.  Their secondary is fully healthy and they held the Rams to just 12 points last week after holding the Bears to 13 points in a 38-13 win two weeks ago.  That was a 24-0 game at halftime before they called off the dogs in the 2H.  They will shut down Tua and this banged up Miami offense in this one as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Sunday.

25* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bills/Patriots OVER 46.5

The Buffalo Bills have now scored 30 or more points in eight consecutive games.  In their last two games alone, they put up 42 points and 445 total yards on the Rams and 48 points and 559 total yards against the Lions.  They are going to get to at least 30 again this week, and that's all we need to cash this OVER 46.5 ticket with the Patriots doing the rest.

The Patriots have been much better offensively with Drake Maye at quarterback. They keep coming for four quarters and actually do most of their damage in the 4th quarter, which I expect to be the case here once the Bills call off the dogs.

We saw it again last week with the Patriots tacking on two garbage TD's in the 4th to get the OVER 46.5 with 47 combined points with the Cardinals.  The week prior they put up 422 total yards in a 25-24 loss to the Colts for 49 combined points.  They combined for 49 points with the Dolphins the game prior thanks to two 4th quarter touchdowns.  And the week prior they lost 28-22 to the Rams for 50 combined points.

While the Bills are fully healthy on offense now, they are beat up on defense which is why they are being forced to win shootouts.  They allowed 44 points and 457 yards to the Rams two weeks ago and 42 points and 521 yards to the Lions last week.  The Patriots are also beat up defensively with five starters questionable heading into this one.  They have allowed 25 or more points in four consecutive games.

The OVER is 5-1 in Bills last six games overall with 50 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Patriots last four games overall with 47 or more combined points in all four games.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 48 or more combined points in five of those six.  There will be no wind or precipitation in Buffalo Sunday making conditions ripe for scoring even though it's going to be cold.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Lions/Bears OVER 47.5

The forecast looks good for a game in Chicago in December.  Temps will be in the 30's with only 10 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation.  That's why I'm not worried about the weather affecting the Lions and Jared Goff in this outdoor game.

The Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league.  They did just lose RB David Montgomery to injury, but not having him actually makes them more of an OVER team.  They have to throw more and backup RB Jamir Gibbs is more explosive and better at catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 14 defenders on IR alone.  And many of theym are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzelone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

They've been forced to try and win shootouts the last two weeks.  They accomplished it with a 34-31 win over Green Bay two weeks ago, but they couldn't get it done last week in a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills last week.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they know they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

The Bears look lost defensively since firing Matt Eberflus.  He was a big reason they were so good on defense to finish last season, and pretty good on defense in the first half this season.  But they have fallen off a cliff without him.  They allowed 38 points and 452 total yards to the 49ers in their first game without him two weeks ago.  They allowed 30 points and 329 yards to the Vikings last week.

I know the Bears haven't been thriving on offense, but they should have one of their best games of the season against this banged up Detroit stop unit.  This is a big step down in class after facing the 49ers and Vikings.  The Bears have had two of their best offensive outputs of the season in their last two home games.  They had 391 total yards against the Packers and 27 points and 398 total yards against the Vikings.  They are much more comfortable offensively at home.

These teams met on Thanksgiving in a game that should have been tied 23-23 at the end of regulation, but the Bears inexplicably let the clock run out in FG range.  That got Eberflus fired.  The Lions had 405 total yards and the Bears 301 in that game.  Given the current state of both these defenses, I think the offenses will shine even more in the rematch this weekend.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rams/Jets OVER 46.5

The New York Jets have really slipped defensively since firing head coach Robert Saleh.  They have also been hit hard by injuries on defense.  But offensively they are improving rapidly with Aaron Rodgers forming great chemistry with Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard in the passing game.  The Jets profile as an OVER team in their current form.

The OVER is 4-0 in Jets last four games overall with 47 or more combined points in all four games, including 55 or more in three of them.  The Jets have allowed at least 25 points in five consecutive games and an average of 28.4 points per game during this stretch.  They even gave up 25 points and 421 total yards to Mac Jones and the Jaguars last week.  They rank 31st in EPA per play and 30th in success rate on defense since Saleh left.

The Jets have scored at least 21 points in six of their last seven games overall.  They are averaging 26.5 points per game in their last four games.  The passing attack has really taken off the last two weeks with 319 passing yards against Miami and 275 against Jacksonville.

The Los Angeles Rams are going to get their points.  They are showing what they are capable of offensively with Stafford, Kupp, Nacua and Williams all healthy at the same time.  Now the Rams are expected to get TE Tyler Higbee back this week to make his season debut.

The Rams hung 44 points in an absolute shootout with the Bills two weeks ago that saw 86 combined points.  I think the fact that they are coming off a very low-scoring game against the 49ers last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  That game was played in sloppy conditions and neither offense could get anything going as a result.  Plus, they were very familiar with one another in a division game meeting for a 2nd time this season.

Now the Rams head out East against a team they are unfamiliar with in the Jets.  And I like OVERS much more in these non-conference games where teams don't see each other every year.  It makes the offenses much more difficult to prepare for.  I like the way both of these offenses are trending, I like that the Jets are giving up points in bunches and are extremely injured right now, and I think this Rams defense is overrated.

The Jets just put S Jalen Mills on IR, could be without CB Michael Carter II again, and their best defender in Quinnen Williams is dealing with a hamstring injury and missed practice on Wednesday.  I think the Rams can name their number here and the Jets will be able to keep pace in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Rams -2.5

The New York Jets have really slipped defensively since firing head coach Robert Saleh.  They have also been hit hard by injuries on defense.  The Jets have allowed at least 25 points in five consecutive games and an average of 28.4 points per game during this stretch.  They even gave up 25 points and 421 total yards to Mac Jones and the Jaguars last week. They rank 31st in EPA per play and 30th in success rate on defense since Saleh left.

The Jets just put S Jalen Mills on IR, could be without CB Michael Carter II again, and their best defender in Quinnen Williams is dealing with a hamstring injury and missed practice on Wednesday.  They were already without their most important defender in LB CJ Mosley, and they haven't been good since losing him and Saleh.  Saleh called the defense and Mosley was the one making those calls to the defense to get everyone where they're supposed to be.

The Los Angeles Rams are going to get their points.  They are showing what they are capable of offensively with Stafford, Kupp, Nacua and Williams all healthy at the same time.  Now the Rams are expected to get TE Tyler Higbee back this week to make his season debut.

The Rams hung 44 points on the Bills two weeks ago winning in a shootout.  They showed last week they could win a grinder upsetting the 49ers 12-6 on the road.  They outgained the 49ers 302 to 191 in rainy conditions and really controlled the game throughout.  They improved to 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall, quietly playing as well as almost anyone else in the NFL right now.

But the Rams cannot afford to take their foot off the gas this week.  They are tied with the Seahawks for first place in the division and only one game ahead of the Cardinals.  They also want to assure they get a wild card spot if they are unable to win the division.  Many are expecting them to letdown this week, but I'm not one of them given their current standing.

If anyone is going to have a letdown it's going to be the Jets.  They just ended a 4-game losing streak with a come from behind win over Mac Jones and the Jaguars in the final seconds last week.  This after losing three straight heartbreakers to the Colts by 1, the Seahawks by 5 and the Dolphins in OT.  I think the Jets will be the team that breathes a sigh of relief here.

The Rams have a big rest advantage after playing the 49ers last Thursday.  They get three extra days to prepare for this game.  They will be rested and ready to go, and they are fully healthy across the board.  The Jets are the tired team that has played four straight one-score games.  They are also beat up, especially on defense.  Getting Los Angeles as less than a FG favorite here is a gift.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Steelers/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -6

This is where the tough schedule that everyone talked about in the 2nd half of the season starts to catch up with the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They had their bye way back in Week 9 and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  They will also be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks here and are starting to wear down and get injured.

The Steelers lost 27-13 last week at Philadelphia.  The Eagles controlled that game and controlled the ball possessing it for 40 minutes, meaning the Steelers' defense was on the field for 40 minutes.  Thats' not good news now that they are on a short week.

The Eagles outgained the Steelers 401 to 163 for the game, or by 238 total yards.  They exposed the Steelers as frauds, and left them battered and bruised. TJ Watt was forced from the game with an ankle injury and won't be 100% even if he goes.  SS Elliott is doubtful, while DE Obunjobi and CB Jackson are questionable.  WR George Pickens means everything to them offensively, and he has already been ruled out again.  They have been lost without Pickens the last couple weeks as he has been Russell Wilson's go-to target, especially on deep balls.

The Ravens just finally had their bye in Week 14.  They came out of their bye and wrecked the New York Giants 35-14.  The Ravens are almost fully healthy now and certainly as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.  They are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL and I have them power-rated similar to Philadelphia, and I expect a similar beat down that the Eagles put on the Steelers last week.

Baltimore wants revenge from a 18-16 loss at Pittsburgh in a game in which Justin Tucker missed two field goals, and the Ravens committed three turnovers.  That's what it took just for the Steelers to squeak by them by 2 points.  I expect the Ravens to make the necessary corrections and for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season with the division on the line.

I think there's value in the line where you consider the Ravens were 3-point road favorites in that first meeting, and now are 6-point favorites in the rematch.  They have only adjusted it 3 points for flipping home fields, and it should be adjusted even more considering the Steelers are banged up and tired while the Ravens are fresh and healthy.  

The Ravens are so much better than the Steelers when you look at the numbers.  The Ravens are outgaining opponents by 85 yards per game and 1.4 yards per play, while the Steelers are only outgaining opponents by 9 yards per game and actually getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.  Bet the Ravens Saturday.

15* Broncos/Chargers AFC West ANNIHILATOR on OVER 41

Bo Nix and this Denver offense are rolling right now.  The Broncos have now scored 28 or more points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  They are averaging 27.4 points per game in their last 10 games with one of the most underrated offenses in the league.  A big reason for their success is playing much faster so Nix can make quick decisions.  The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in pace since Week 4.

The Broncos allowed 32 points and 554 total yards to Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns two games ago.  They allowed 369 yards to the Raiders the game before.  And last week they should have allowed more points to the Colts, but Jonathan Taylor let the ball go inches from the goal line to celebrate early and cost the Colts a TD.  The Colts moved the ball up and down the field on the Broncos.  They haven't been nearly as strong since losing starting CB Riley Moss to injury, and he remains out.  And now fellow CB Patrick Surtain II was noticeably limping getting injured late in that Colts game.  While he is expected to play, he will be hobbled.

The Chargers can take advantage of this vulnerable Denver secondary with their more pass-heavy approach since losing RB JK Dobbins to injury.  They have their full compliment of receivers all healthy right now which is big for Justin Herbert.  That's with the exception of TE Will Dissly, but TE Hayden Hurst has been activated from IR to take his place this week, so there should be no drop off at the position.  The Broncos are also fully healthy on offense.

The OVER is 4-0 in Chargers last four home games combining for 44 points with Tennessee, 61 with Cincinnati, 53 with Baltimore and 57 with Tampa Bay.  So this total of 41 is very low for a Chargers home game based on recent results.

The Chargers' defense has been exposed in recent weeks by better offenses, allowing 27 points to Cincinnati, 30 to Baltimore and 40 and a whopping 506 total yards to the Bucs last week.  Injuries are a big reason they couldn't stop the Bucs and won't be able to stop the Broncos tonight.  The Chargers will be without starting CB Cam Hart and starting FS Elijah Molden, and both starting NT Otito Ogbonnia and LB Denzel Perryman are questionable.  They have five defenders on IR as well.

The Broncos and their opponents have combined for at least 42 points in seven of thier last eight games overall.  That makes for a 7-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 41-point total.  The OVER is 7-2-1 in Broncos last 10 games overall as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NFL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bears/Vikings OVER 43.5

The Chicago Bears fired head coach Eberflus last week and he clearly wasn't the problem.  They allowed 319 yards in the first half alone to the 49ers trailing 24-0 against a 49ers offense that hasn't been all that good in recent weeks due to injuries.  They lost 38-13.

We have seen something similar in New York as the Jets have been terrible defensively since firing Robert Saleh.  He was the mastermind of their defense that was a Top 5 unit since he has been there.  Eberflus has done the same in Chicago as they were one of the best defenses in the NFL last season and have been pretty good again this season under his watch.

Like the Jets, the Bears have focused on turning around their offense as a priority the rest of the season.  They took the Lions to the wire and should have won two weeks ago but the gaffe with letting the clock run out in the final seconds cost them at least a shot at OT.

We saw three weeks ago the Bears go toe to toe with the Vikings in a 30-27 (OT) shootout.  The Vikings had 452 total yards while the Bears finished with 398 total yards, and that game was played outdoors in the conditions in Chicago.  This rematch will be played indoors on a fast track.

Sam Darnold is playing at an MVP level, throwing 5 touchdown passes with three to Addison and two to Jefferson last week in a 42-21 home win over the Falcons that saw 63 combined points.  He is completing 68.4% of his passes with a 28-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the season, and he has enviable weapons in those two plus RB Jones and TE Hockenson that are just so tough to tame.

The Vikings rank 7th in the NFL averaging 6.1 yards per play on offense and I think they can pretty much name their number against this soft Chicago defense that allowed 38 points to the 49ers last week.  But the Vikings have really slipped defensively in recent weeks, giving up 398 yards to the Bears, 406 yards to the Cardinals and 496 yards to the Falcons in their last three games.  Chicago will do enough to help get this one up and OVER this 43.5-point total, which is below the keys of 44 and 45.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Bears/Vikings ABC No-Brainer on Minnesota -6.5

The Chicago Bears fired head coach Eberflus last week and he clearly wasn't the problem.  A lot of money poured in on the Bears moving them all the way down to +3 against the 49ers and it couldn't have been more wrong.  The Bears were outgained 319 to 4 in total yards by the 49ers in the first half alone in a 38-13 road loss.

The Bears sit at 4-9 on the season and eliminated from playoff contention.  I don't expect them to put forth much of a better effort this week against the Vikings, either.  I do expect the Vikings to show up considering they sit at 11-2 just one game behind the Lions for first place in the division and possibly the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

The Vikings are 6-0 in their last six games overall and coming off a 42-21 home win over the Falcons.  That was a Falcons team coming off their bye week so putting them away that easily in the 4th quarter was quite impressive.  Now the Vikings get some extra rest here with this being a Monday Night Football game and they need it.

The Vikings have managed to stay remarkably healthy this season and they should be at full strength this week if CB Stephon Gilmore returns after missing the Atlanta game.  Sam Darnold is playing at an MVP level, throwing 5 touchdown passes with three to Addison and two to Jefferson last week.  He is completing 68.4% of his passes with a 28-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the season, and he has enviable weapons in those two plus RB Jones and TE Hockenson that are just so tough to tame.

The Bears are getting too much respect here because they took the Vikings to OT in a 30-27 home loss a few weeks ago.  But that was a misleading final.  They were down 14 going into the 4th quarter and needed a TD with 22 seconds left to cut it to 3, and an onside kick to get the game-tying FG.  That's the kind of luck it's going to take again for the Bears to just be competitive.

And while the Bears have been competitive at home this season, it has been a different story on the road.  The Bears are 0-6 SU in true road games this season getting outscored by an average of 10.3 points per game.  The Vikings are 5-1 SU at home this season outscoring opponents by 10.2 points per game with their lone loss coming to Detroit by 2. I'm expecting Minnesota to win this game by double-digits tonight.  

Home teams playing their 3rd consecutive home game against road teams playing their 3rd consecutive road game are 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 tries in the NFL.  This is a great spot for Minnesota and a terrible one for Chicago.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Broncos OVER 44

Most wouldn't know it, but the Broncos rank 1st in pace since Week 6 while the Colts rank 4th in pace during that same time frame.  So this game is going to see a ton of possessions and more scoring opportunities as a result.

Bo Nix and this Denver offense are rolling right now.  The Broncos have now scored 28 or more points in six of their last nine games overall.  They are averaging 27.0 points per game in their last nine games with one of the most underrated offenses in the league.  They are scoring at will against bad teams, and now they face another bad team with a bad defense in the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts have allowed at least 21 points in six consecutive games.  Perhaps there was no worse effort than allowing 24 points and 422 total yards to the Patriots in their last game.  But the offense has been better with Anthony Richardson, who has led them to game-winning drives two of their last three games in a 28-27 wino over the Jets and a 25-24 win over the Patriots. The Broncos allowed 32 points and 554 total yards to Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns last time out.

These teams are battling for a wild card spot in the AFC.  I think whoever is behind will keep coming and the scoring will continue for four quarters.  These games against playoff contenders late in the season tend to be higher scoring because of it.  

And the forecast for a game in Denver in December looks fantastic for a shootout.  Temps will be in the 50's with only 6 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Both teams look fully healthy on offense with the Colts getting star WR Josh Downs back from injury this week.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Commanders -7

I love the spot for the Washington Commanders this week.  The Commanders got a much-needed bye week.  They had lost three straight before blowing out the Titans 42-19 going into their bye week.  Now they come out of their bye refocused, healthy and motivated to make a playoff run.

Jayden Daniels was banged up with a rib injury for a few games, but he looked more like the Daniels that was the Rookie of the Year favorite through the first half of the season in his last two games.  The Commanders put up 412 total yards on the Cowboys two games ago and 463 total yards on the Titans last game, and that's a very good Tennessee defense.

While the Commanders are 8-5 this season, the Saints sit at 5-8 with almost no chance of making the playoffs.  That's especially the case with all of the injuries they are dealing with right now.  They haven't been the same since losing Taysom Hill and their three best receivers, and now they are going to be without QB Derek Carr after suffering a broken hand late last week.  RB Kamara and TE Johnson are questionable as well.

We saw just how bad the Saints were earlier this season when they were without Carr.  They lost 51-27 at home to Tampa Bay, 33-10 at home to Denver and 26-8 to the Chargers on the road in their three games without Carr.  They were outscored by a total of 65 points in those three games or by an average of 21.7 points per game.  They were outgained by the lowly Giants last week even with Carr.

One hidden factor here is that the Commanders are going to activate CB Marshon Lattimore this week.  He will make his Washington debut after being traded prior to the deadline.  He knows the Saints schemes inside and out, and getting two weeks to prepare for the Saints will give Lattimore plenty of time to feed the coaching staff all the info they need to take advantage.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns +5

The Kansas City Chiefs are 15-0 in their last 15 one-score games dating back to last season. That is simply remarkable, and it's as much luck as it is skill.  But the Chiefs just find a way to keep winning close games.  At some point their luck is going to run out.

The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall with each of their last four wins coming by 3 points or fewer.  Their offense is broken, and their defense is very shaky in the secondary.  I think the Cleveland Browns can take advantage at home this week.

The Browns are coming off two misleading road losses to the Broncos and Steelers that has created some line value for us to back them at home this week.  The Browns outgained the Broncos 552 to 400 in a 41-32 loss and outgained the Steelers 300 to 267 in a 27-14 loss.

But we saw what the Browns could do at home pulling off outright upsets over the Steelers 24-19 as 3.5-point dogs in their last home game and upsetting the Ravens 29-24 as 7.5-point dogs three home games ago.  They know they are capable, and I think they will be looking forward to this opportunity to try and knock off the defending champs this week.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Dolphins/Texans OVER 47

The Miami Dolphins have been an offensive juggernaut since getting Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback.  They have scored at least 23 points in six of his seven starts since returning.  The only exception was the 17 they scored against the Packers two weeks ago in freezing temps, but they deserved to score more with 375 total yards.

This Miami defense has slipped in recent weeks.  They allowed 24 first half points to the Packers two weeks ago before taking their foot off the gas in a 30-17 win.  They allowed 26 points and 402 total yards to the Jets last week and it was Aaron Rodgers' first 300-yard passing game since becoming a Jet.

The Houston Texans needed a bye to regroup.  Their offense has produced at least 22 points in nine of its last 10 games, but it just hasn't been as sharp as it was last season.  I think the Texans will have some new wrinkles offensively for Miami to spark their offense and get CJ Stroud going heading into the stretch run.

Injuries and suspensions are a real problem for the Texans defensively.  LB Al-Shaair is facing a three-game suspension for his hit on Trevor Lawrence going into the bye.  DT Fatukasi, DE Autry and S Pitre are all questionable or out.  This is a big step up in class for a Houston defense that has gotten to face the Cowboys, Titans and Jaguars the last three weeks.

Both teams are in the playoff hunt so there won't be any quit in the second half by either team.  Look for whoever is behind to keep coming and to get this thing up and OVER the total early into the 4th quarter.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers ML -125

The Carolina Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They went toe-to-toe with three of the better teams in the NFL in the Chiefs, Bucs and Eagles the last three weeks.  They lost on a last-second FG to the Chiefs, lost in OT to the Bucs and dropped a potential game-winning TD against the Eagles in the final seconds last week.  Bryce Young made all the plays he had to down the stretch of those three games to put his team in position to win.

With a first-year head coach and a motivated QB in Young, the Panthers will keep battling.  They are hungry for a win and I think they get it this week against a team they can handle in the Dallas Cowboys.  This is a terrible spot for the Cowboys, whose loss to the Bengals on Monday Night Football pretty much eliminated them from playoff contention.

So the Cowboys are now on a short week after playing on Monday and dealing with the 'dream crusher' scenario, which is that first game after having their dreams crushed.  I saw Micah Parsons walk off the field in disgust last week, and that's not a good look for the leader of this team.

A lot of that disgust was the injury to LB DeMarvion Overshown, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the loss to the Bengals.  He was quickly becoming Dallas' most impactful defender, and his loss is a huge blow.  Injuries are piling up with LB Vigil, CB Diggs and S Lewis all questionable on defense, plus C Beebe now questionable after suffering a concussion.  RG Zack Martin is already on IR.

I like the mindset of the Panthers much more than that of the Cowboys heading into this game.  They are favored for the first time in 33 games for good reason here.  Bet the Panthers on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Rams/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco ML -140

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the best below .500 teams in the history of the NFL through 13 games.  They rank 4th in the NFL in total offense at 378.5 yards per game and 2nd at 6.5 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in total defense at 298.5 yards per game and 5th at 5.3 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 80 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play, which is elite.

The 49ers had a team meeting Saturday night prior to their game against the Chicago Bears.  It led to one of their best performances of the season, jumping out to a 24-0 halftime lead while outgaining the Bears 319 yards to 4 yards for Chicago at that point.

The nature of the blowout allowed the 49ers to coast in the 2H, which will keep them much fresher for this Thursday night game on a short week.  The Rams don't have the same luxury.  They were in a 60-minute war with the Bills last week in a 44-42 shootout win.  I suspect the Rams won't have much left in the tank for the 49ers this week as a result.

San Francisco wants revenge from a 27-24 road loss to the Rams in their first meeting this season.  They outgained the Rams 425 to 296, or by 129 total yards.  They blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead in defeat.  They have not forgotten, and I expect them to take out their frustration on the Rams this week.

Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers own Sean McVay and the Rams.  The 49ers are 9-3 SU in the last 12 meetings with the three losses coming by a combined 7 points.  Six of the nine wins have come by 7 points or more.  Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Bengals/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Monday night in perfect conditions in the dome in Arlington.  This thing has shootout written all over it when the Dallas Cowboys host the Cincinnati Bengals.

The OVER is 9-3 in the Bengals 12 games this season with 51 or more combined points in nine of those 12 games.  Joe Burrow leads an offense that ranks 6th in scoring at 27.9 points per game.  The problem is the Bengals have lost three times this season in which they have scored at least 30 points because they have a dreadful defense.

The Bengals rank 31st in scoring defense allowing 28.3 points per game.  Their defense was just shredded for 44 points and 520 total yards by the Pittsburgh Steelers, who aren't known for having a very good offense.  They looked like they quit on that side of the ball last week, which says a lot going up against a division rival.

The Cowboys rank 29th in scoring defense allowing 28.2 points per game.  The OVER is 5-1 in Dallas' six home games this season.  The Cowboys have allowed an average of 34.5 points per game at home this season.  Burrow and company are going to be able to do whatever they want against this defense.

The Cowboys have been surprisingly effective on offense since Cooper Rush took over, especially the last two weeks.  They put up 34 points on the Commanders two weeks ago and 27 points on the Giants last week.  The Cowboys also just got No. 2 receiver Brandin Cooks back last week from injury to take some of the pressure off of CeeDee Lamb.  I'm expecting Rush's best performance of the season against this soft Cincinnati defense.

The OVER is 8-4 in all Dallas games this season with 47 or more combined points in eight of those 12 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals ML -145

I love the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  They will be playing with revenge in mind after losing 16-6 in poor weather in Seattle in their first meeting just two weeks ago.  The Seahawks had a 69-yard pick 6, which was the difference in the game as the stats were pretty even otherwise.

Arizona lost 23-22 at Minnesota last week in a game they deserved to win, but went 1-for-6 scoring touchdowns in the red zone.  The Cardinals outgained the Vikings 406 to 273 for the game, or by 133 total yards.  The Vikings hadn't been manhandled by a team like that all season, so it just goes to show how good this Arizona team is right now.

The Cardinals trail the Seahawks by one game in the division, and they can't afford a loss because they would not only fall two games back, but it would essentially be three games because they would lose the tiebreaker.  I expect an 'all in' effort from the Cardinals this week, and it will be good enough to get the win.

The Cardinals are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games beating the Chargers 17-15 as 1-point dogs, beating the Bears 29-9 as 2-point favorites and crushing the Jets 31-6 as 2-point dogs.  They outgained the Bears 350 to 241, or by 109 yards.  They outgained the Jets 406 to 207, or by 199 yards.

Seattle is getting a lot of respect for a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS stretch in their last three games overall.  They came from behind to beat the 49ers 20-17 off their bye week.  But the 49ers went on to lose by 28 to the Packers and by 25 to the Bills.  They beat the Cardinals 16-6, but they were outgained by the Cardinals and benefited from a pick-6, which was the difference.  And last week they struggled to put away the Jets 26-21, a game that turned on a pick-6 by Aaron Rodgers after nearly going up 21 the play before missing a wide open receiver in the end zone.

This is a tough spot for the Seahawks with a lot of travel involved.  After flying out to New York, now they have to fly back home to Seattle, and then fly back out to Arizona in this back-to-back road trip.  That's about as much travel as you will ever see for one team in two weeks.  I think the Seahawks are 'fat and happy' right now, knowing they can afford a loss since taking over first place in the NFC West.

The Cardinals have faced the single-toughest schedule in the NFL this season.  The Seahawks have faced the 17th-ranked schedule.  Yet Arizona has the better numbers to this point.  The Cardinals are outgaining opponents by 12.5 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play, while the Seahawks are only outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per game and 0.1 yards per play.  Bet the Cardinals on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Steelers OVER 44

The Browns are definitely an OVER team with Jameis Winston at quarterback.  He has played well for the most part but he is almost as likely to throw a costly INT that lead to easy points to the opposition as he is to throw a TD pass.  This offense has been opened up big time with Winston at QB.

It started with a 29-24 win over the Ravens as Winston threw for 334 yards and 3 TD in the win.  After a clunker with 3 INT against the Chargers, Winston threw for another 395 yards and 2 TD against the Saints.  Their defense was exposed in that game allowing 473 total yards to the Saints.  Winston led the 24-19 comeback in the snow against the Steelers two weeks ago.

But last week was the ultimate Winston game.  The Browns lost 41-32 at Denver for 73 combined points. The Browns had no business losing that game as they outgained the Broncos 562 to 400.  But the difference was not one but two pick 6's by Winston.  He threw for 497 yards and 4 TD with 3 INT in defeat.  He had a ton of amazing throws that only he can do, but also the bonehead throws that we have become accustomed to.

Cleveland has six defenders on IR, two out, and another questionable in S Thornhill.  They suffered more injuries last week against Denver, and this defense just hasn't been as good since trading away DE Smith to Detroit.  Myles Garrett can now be double-teamed, and the Steelers can focus their attention on him.

Speaking of shootouts, the Steelers beat the Bengals 44-38 last week for 82 combined points.  Russell Wilson had one of the best games of his career throwing for 414 yards and 3 TD with one INT against the Bengals.  I expect him to light up this soft Cleveland defense as well.

The OVER is 4-1 in Winston's five starts this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's last seven games overall as the Steelers have been much more of an OVER team with Wilson's ability to use the entire field with the deep ball.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jets/Dolphins OVER 44.5

The New York Jets have really slipped defensively since Robert Saleh was fired.  They have allowed at least 23 points in seven of their last eight games.  They have allowed 25 or more points in five of their last six games, including 26 to the Seahawks, 28 to the Colts and 31 to the Cardinals in their last three games coming in.

Things are getting worse before they get better for the Jets defensively now.  They just placed LB CJ Mosley on IR, and CB Sauce Gardner is doubtful to play Sunday after suffering an injury last week.  That's two of their best defenders they will be without.

The Jets have been able to move the football and score some points with Aaron Rodgers throwing to Devante Adams and Garrett Wilson.  They have scored 21 or more points in four of their last five games.  Now Rodgers gets his security blanket in Allen Lazard back from IR this week to give him another weapon.

The Dolphins have been an offensive juggernaut since getting Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback.  They have scored at least 23 points in five of his six starts since returning.  The only exception was the 17 they scored against the Packers last week in freezing temps, but they deserved to score more with 375 total yards.

The Dolphins lost key defenders in that 30-17 loss to the Packers last week and those same guys are either questionable, hobbled or out this week.  They allowed 24 first half points to the Packers, who were able to take their foot off the gas after intermission with the game in hand.

The OVER is 4-0 in Miami's last four home games combining for 49 points with New England, 53 with Las Vegas and 55 with Arizona in the last three.  The forecast looks great for another shootout with temps in the 70's, no precipitation and less than 10 MPH winds in Miami.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Packers/Lions NFC North No-Brainer on OVER 51

Note: I also like the Packers +3.5, but I like the OVER 51 more and didn't want to release both.  Consider the Packers +3.5 as a free pick.

The Detroit Lions are decimated by injuries on defense right now.  They lost their best player in Aidan Hutchinson, their best LB in Alex Anzalone and now they lost another starting LB in Malcolm Rodriquez last week.

But that's not where the injuries stop.  They have 11 defenders on IR and another three questionable in DT DJ Reader, DE Josh Paschal and DT Levi Onwuzurike.  Their front seven as currently constructed is one of the worst in the NFL.

We saw the Bears make a big comeback on them in the 2H last week when all these defenders went out with injuries.  The Bears scored all 20 of their points in the 2H.  I think the Packers are going to hang a big number on them Thursday.

Jordan Love is back healthy and in a groove.  He led the Packers to 38 points against the 49ers and followed it up with 30 points against the Dolphins, both at home in cold weather.  Now he gets to go indoors and face this hobbled Lions defense, so you can only imagine what he is going to do to them.

The Packers look fully healthy on offense with everyone listed as questionable already getting in limited practices as of Tuesday, but defensively they could be without LB Edgerrin Cooper, LB Isaiah McDuffie and CB Jaire Alexander.  Cooper still hasn't practiced this week as of Tuesday.

Detroit ranks 1st in scoring offense at 31.9 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 395.2 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play.  Green Bay ranks 3rd in total offense at 382.8 yards per game, so this is a matchup of two of the top three offenses in the NFL in total offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Browns/Broncos ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 42

Bo Nix and this Denver offense are rolling right now.  The Broncos have now scored 28 or more points in five of their last eight games overall.  They are scoring at will against bad teams, and now they face another bad team in the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns are definitely an OVER team with Jameis Winston at quarterback.  He has played well for the most part but he is almost as likely to throw a costly INT that lead to easy points to the opposition as he is to throw a TD pass.  This offense has been opened up big time with Winston at QB.

It started with a 29-24 win over the Ravens as Winston threw for 334 yards and 3 TD in the win.  After a clunker with 3 INT against the Chargers, Winston threw for another 395 yards and 2 TD against the Saints.  Their defense was exposed in that game allowing 473 total yards to the Saints.  Winston led the 24-19 comeback in the snow against the Steelers last Thursday.

Injuries are a big problem for this Cleveland defense right now. They have five players on IR and another two players listed as out.  They traded DE Smith to the Lions and they just haven't been as good at getting after the QB without him as teams can focus all their attention on stopping Myles Garrett.  The Broncos are fully healthy on offense, but they just lost starting CB Riley Moss to injury last week, and I expect Winston to target his replacement.

The forecast looks great for a December game in Denver with no wind, no precipitation and temperatures approaching 40.  The way these two teams are trending with improved offenses and banged up defenses, I think this total of 42 is too low.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Texans/Jaguars OVER 43

The Houston Texans are becoming more of an OVER team in recent weeks with all of their injuries on defense, plus getting their best playmaker in WR Nico Collins back from injury.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 49 points with Detroit, 44 points with Dallas and 59 points with Tennessee.

We saw how poor a shape their defense was in last week when they allowed Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans to hang 32 points on them.  Tennessee had previously topped 20 points only once all season.  Five starters for the Texans are either questionable or out in DE Will Anderson, DT Fatukasi, LB Al-Shaair, S Ward and NB Pitre.  DE Denico Autry is also questionable.

Jacksonville is likely to get Trevor Lawrence back from injury this week, which is why this line has gone down and this total has gone up.  He got in a limited practice this week and feels good coming off a bye week.  This Jacksonville offense is night and day better with Lawrence at quarterback.  Otherwise they are pretty much fully healthy on offense coming out of their bye.

The Jaguars have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They rank 30th in scoring at 28.7 points per game allowed, dead last 32nd in total defense at 413.7 yards per game and dead last 32nd at 6.3 yards per play.  Their changed schemes this season going to almost exclusively man-to-man, and they give up a lot of big plays because they don't have the players to run that scheme.

Houston just got Nico Collins back from injury two weeks ago, and it's no surprise the Texans have come through with two of their best offensive performances of the season.  They hung 34 points on Dallas and 27 on a very good Tennessee defense.  I think they can do the heavy lifting here, and the Jaguars will do enough to get us up and OVER this 43-point total.  The Texans and Jaguars have combined for at least 44 points in seven of their last nine meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Chargers/Falcons OVER 47.5

The Los Angeles Chargers have been an under team this season and they do have a great defense.  However, they have benefited from facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL through the first 10 weeks.  They faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis in the first 10 weeks.  Mahomes was missing many of his key weapons.

We saw what the Chargers defense was against two high-powered offenses in Cincinnati and Baltimore.  They won a 34-27 shootout and gave up 452 total yards to the Bengals, including 356 passing and 3 TD from Burrow.  They lost a 30-23 shootout with the Ravens while allowing 389 total yards, including 212 rushing.

The Chargers are showing what they are capable of offensively when they are basically fully healthy.  They put up 26 points on the Saints and weren't pressed so they took their foot off the gas late in that game.  They put up 27 points on the Browns on the road and 27 points on the Titans at home.  Those are two very underrated defenses.  They put up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Bengals, and 23 points against the Ravens.

Now the Chargers face another dead nuts OVER team in the Atlanta Falcons with a great offense and terrible, banged up defense.  The Falcons rank 8th in total offense at 361.5 yards per game and 9th at 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 25th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game and 24th in total defense at 357.1 yards per game.  

The Falcons are fully healthy on offense, but they are dealing with a plethora of injuries on defense even coming out of their bye week.  They have the worst pass rush in the NFL, so Herbert should have all day to throw it.  The Chargers will be without RB JK Dobbins, but they have been pass-heavy in recent weeks and will be even more pass-heavy in this game with the matchup in their favor against this horrid Atlanta pass defense.  The Chargers are beat up on defense missing 4 players in the secondary, LB Denzel Perryman and possibly LB Daiyan Henley.  They also have three LB's on IR.

The Chargers are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 61 points with Cincinnati and 53 with Baltimore.  The Falcons and their opponents have gone for 48 or more combined points in each of their last four home games.  Conditions will be perfect for a shootout in the dome in Atlanta.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts -2.5

The Indianapolis Colts are clinging on to their hopes of making the playoffs in the AFC.  They sit at 5-7 this season, and they are looking at this as a must-win Sunday against the New England Patriots.  I expect them to get the win and cover today in this must-win spot.

The Colts are coming off a misleading 24-6 home loss to Detroit in which they had so many big plays called back by penalties.  I think they clean that up this week, and finally get to face an opponent in the Patriots they can handle after going through the gauntlet of Detroit, NYJ, Buffalo, Minnesota and Houston in their last five games.

Now they get to take on the Patriots, who are just 3-9 SU & 4-7-1 ATS this season.  There was nothing misleading about their 34-15 loss to the Dolphins last week, other than the fact that it could have been worse as they trailed 31-0 going into the 4th quarter and scored both TD's in garbage time, including a defensive TD.  New England was outgained 373 to 269 by the Dolphins, or by 104 total yards.

Injuries are a big issue for the Patriots right now as they are as banged up as just about any team in the NFL.  They have six players on IR, two players out and another nine players questionable for this one.  Injuries are a big reason I am fading them this week.

It's easy to see why the Patriots are so banged up as they will be playing for a 13th consecutive week as they have not had their bye yet.  They are gassed, especially after playing three of their last four games on the road.  I love the spot for the Colts this week to get right against much weaker competition than they have been facing for over a month.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

15* Giants/Cowboys FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 37.5

This total has been adjusted down too much for both teams having backup quarterbacks.  I think there's value on the OVER, especially given the circumstances with both teams playing freely with not much to play for from here on out.  It's also indoors in perfect scoring conditions in Dallas.

I'm hoping the Giants go to Drew Lock, who is their best backup QB instead of Tommy DeVito.  It looks like DeVito is going to be a game-time decision, and I'll like this OVER either way, but this total will balloon if Lock is announced the starter.

Dallas is coming off a 34-26 win at Washington with a huge offensive performance even with Cooper Rush at QB.  That game saw 60 combined points.  Rush went 24-of-32 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD.  Now reinforcements are on the way with No. 2 receiver Brandin Cooks coming off IR this week.

This Dallas defense is pathetic, and whoever is under center for the Giants is going to have success.  The Cowboys have allowed at least 26 points in six consecutive games and an average of 33.0 points per game during this stretch.  The Cowboys are also allowing 37.4 points per game at home this season.

The Giants came out of their bye and laid an absolute egg defensively, allowing 30 points and 450 total yards to the Bucs.  It looks like they have pretty much quit on that side of the football.  I don't think either of these defenses can be trusted with a total of 37.5, which is about as low as you'll ever see for an indoor game in today's NFL.  

The Cowboys and Giants have combined for at least 39 points in nine of their last 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Bears/Lions CBS No-Brainer on OVER 48

The Detroit Lions rank 1st in the NFL in scoring offense at 32.7 points per game.  While they are loaded on offense, they are vulnerable on defense without DE Aidan Hutchinson and LB Alex Anzalone, arguably their two best defensive players.  They are also without starting CB Carlton Davis III this week.

The Chicago Bears have been a different offense since firing their coordinator.  They put up 391 total yards on the Packers in their first game with the new coordinator.  They put up 27 points and 398 yards on the Vikings last week in their second game without them.  This offense is trending up, and the Bears now have the firepower to go score for score with the Lions, which they are going to be forced to do.

The Bears and Lions have combined for 51, 57 and 61 points in three of their last four meetings.  It's going to be perfect conditions for a shootout indoors in Detroit.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Chargers OVER 47.5

This Baltimore offense is one of the best in NFL history.  The Ravens rank 2nd in scoring at 30.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 430.1 yards per game and 1st at 7.2 yards per play.  Lamar Jackson has more weapons than he has ever had with Flowers, Bateman, Johnson, Andrews, Likely, Hill and Agholor, and he has one of the best RB's the NFL has ever seen in Derrick Henry, who has already rushed for 1,185 yards and 13 TD.

The weakness of Baltimore is their pass defense.  They rank dead last (32nd) in the NFL allowing 284.5 passing yards per game and 26th at 7.2 yards per attempt.  LB Roquon Smith suffered a hamstring injury against the Steelers last week and did not practice Friday and may not play in this game.  Nickel CB Arthur Maulet is out, and NT Travis Jones is questionable.

The Chargers have been an under team this season and they do have a great defense.  However, they have benefited from facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL.  They have faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston, Will Levis and Joe Burrow this season.  Mahomes was missing many of his key weapons.

We saw what the Chargers defense was last week against a high-powered offense in the Cincinnati Bengals.  They won a 34-27 shootout and gave up 452 total yards to the Bengals, including 356 passing and 3 TD from Burrow.  I think they'll get shredded by this Baltimore offense as well.

The Los Angeles Chargers are showing what they are capable of offensively when they are basically fully healthy, which they are right now.  They put up 26 points on the Saints and weren't pressed so they took their foot off the gas late in that game.  They put up 27 points on the Browns on the road and 27 points on the Titans at home.  Those are two very underrated defenses.  They put up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Bengals, who have a similarly poor defense to Baltimore.

The OVER is 9-2 in all Baltimore games this season with 45 or more combined points in 10 of the 11, and 49 or more combined points in eight of those.  They have gone for 51 or more combined points with their opponents in six of their last seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver Broncos -4.5

The Denver Broncos are rolling right now going 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  One of those losses was a game they deserved to win in a 16-14 loss at Kansas City as 7-point dogs in a game they had won, but had their short FG blocked on the final play.  They also lost to the Ravens on the road and the Chargers, who were coming off their bye week and were a lot healthier at the time.  All of those losses have aged well.

The Broncos are crushing the teams they are supposed to beat, like these Las Vegas Raiders.  They upset the Bucs by 19, upset the Jets as 8.5-point road dogs, crushed the Raiders by 16 at home, crushed the Saints by 23 on the road, topped the Panthers by 14 at home and buried the Falcons by 32 at home last week.

While the Broncos are almost fully healthy right now and motivated to make the playoffs, the Raiders are in limbo right now and not healthy at all.  The Raiders are 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their six losses coming by an average of 13.2 points per game.

The Raiders have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL, they are without their top two RB's in Mattison and White, they are missing two starters along the offensive line, and they could be without three starters in the secondary.  It's not going to get any better this week against the Broncos.  I expect this to feel like a home game for Denver as their fans will travel well, and Raiders fans don't have a lot to be excited about right now.

While Bo Nix is getting a lot of the headlines and is playing very well behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, it's this Denver defense that is the backbone.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game and 3rd at 289.4 yards per game.  They are also 1st allowing 4.9 yards per play.  Their task will be easy this week because the Raiders' only real threat on offense is TE Brock Bowers, who has 70 receptions for 706 yards this season.  They will scheme up a way to take him out, and Denver should win in another blowout.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Patriots/Dolphins OVER 45

The New England Patriots are becoming more of an OVER team with Drake Maye at quarterback.  He is showing the Patriots made the right move by drafting him No. 3 overall and New England fans have a lot to look forward to.  His dual-threat ability and his deep ball make this Patriots offense a lot more potent than when Jacoby Brissett was running the show.

Maye is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,236 yards with a 9-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 260 yards and a score on 9.3 per carry.  He kept the Patriots in the game last week in a 28-22 loss to the Rams.  The Rams put up 402 total yards on this banged up Patriots defense, but the Patriots got 382 total yards in a shootout.

This Miami offense has taken off since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury.  He has led them to 27 points against the Cardinals, 27 against the Bills, 23 against the Rams and 34 against the Raiders.  The Dolphins profile much more as an OVER team as long as Tua is under center.  He'll be up against a New England defense that has six starters listed on the injury report and another six listed out or on IR.

The forecast in Miami looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  This total of 45 is too low for the makeup of these two teams currently.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Washington Commanders -10

I love the spot for the Washington Commanders Sunday.  They are coming off a mini bye week after playing the Eagles last Thursday.  That was their second consecutive loss after falling by 1 to the Steelers.  They will be motivated coming out of their mini-bye, and they will be a lot healthier, including QB Jayden Daniels.

Now the Commanders get a team they should handle in the hapless Dallas Cowboys.  This is a Cowboys team that just isn't very good for starters, and one that has been decimated by injuries this season as well.  The Cowboys are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost 47-9 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Lions, 30-24 as 5.5-point road dogs to the 49ers, 27-21 as 3.5-point road dogs to the Falcons, 34-6 as 7-point home dogs to the Eagles and 34-10 as 7-point home dogs to the Texans.  

They even scored a garbage TD late against the 49ers to make that score look closer than it was, and a garbage score against the Falcons late to make that score closer than it was. The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott to injury in that loss to the Falcons to boot.  We saw what this team looks like without Dak at QB, and it's not pretty. 

That 34-6 loss to the Eagles was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Cowboys managed just 146 total yards and 11 first downs against the Eagles.  They had 49 net passing yards on 26 attempts, averaging less than 2 yards per attempt.  I don't think I've ever seen passing numbers in the NFL that are that poor.  Rush had more success against the Texans, but it was a lot of dink and dunk when they were trailing big.  He's just not a NFL starting QB.

The injuries just keep piling up for the Cowboys.  They will be without TE Jake Ferguson, who suffered a concussion against the Texans.  They will be without RG Zack Martin, and several other key players are questionable in WR Brandin Cooks, LG Tyron Smith, LB Nick Vigil and CB Trevon Diggs.

After facing two of the best defenses in the league in the Steelers and Eagles, things should come a lot easier for Daniels and this Washington offense against one of the worst defenses in the league in the Cowboys.  Dallas ranks 31st in scoring defense allowing 29.3 points per game.  It is 30th allowing 6.1 yards per play.  The Cowboys have now allowed at least 27 points in five consecutive games.  Washington will get to at least 27, and that will be enough to cover this 10-point spread.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants have new life coming out of their bye week with a new QB in Tommy DeVito.  We saw him give them a spark last season going 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in his six starts, including 4-0 ATS against the four teams that allowed the most points per game that he faced.

He will be up against a leaky Tampa Bay defense that ranks 27th in scoring at 26.6 points per game, 30th in total defense at 389.3 yards per game and 29th at 6.1 yards per play.  The Giants will have a lot more success on offense than they are getting credit for this week.

On the other side of the ball, the strength of this Giants defense is their pass rush.  They will be up against a shaky Tampa Bay offensive line that will likely be without their best player in LT Tristan Wirfs.  Baker Mayfield will be under duress all game. The Giants are almost fully healthy coming out of their bye week and will be getting some key players back to boot.

The Giants are undervalued due to their poor 2-8 SU record.  But they are 1-5 SU in games decided by one score.  They have been unfortunate in close games.  If they lose this game, it will be by one score, so there's some serious value in getting +6 with them at home this week.  This line was Tampa Bay -3 on the lookahead which is where I believe its should be, so we are getting 3 full points of value here.  Don't be the surprised if the Giants win this game outright.

Baker Mayfield is 9-13 SU & 9-13 ATS in his career coming off extended rest, including 3-8 SU on the road.  Todd Bowles is 9-17 SU on extended rest in his coaching career, including 2-8 SU on the road.  Brian Daboll is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS off a bye as the coach of the Giants.  Mayfield is 1-4 ATS coming off a bye, including 0-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Colts OVER 50.5

The Detroit Lions are really an OVER team as currently constructed.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL but one of the worst defenses, it's just that that defense hasn't been exposed yet due to scheduling.  I think this is where their defense gets exposed and they'll have to try and keep up with the Colts in a shootout.

No question the Lions are loaded on offense ranking 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game and 3rd in total offense at 394.7 yards per game.  They're almost fully healthy on offense.  But the same cannot be said for their defense, which is missing their best player in DE Aidan Hutchinson and now arguably their most important player in LB Alex Anzalone, who will miss most of the season after suffering an injury against the Jaguars last week.  Anzalone is the one that relays all the plays on defense.

Anthony Richardson returned at QB last week for the Colts and played one of the best games of his career. He went 20-of-30 passing for 272 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for two scores, including the game-winner when they had to have it trailing by 5 on their final drive.  They beat the Jets 28-27 for 55 combined points in a shootout.

The Lions play a lot of man-to-man defense, and Richardson should kill man-to-man with his ability to run the ball.  Not having Anzalone out there to chase him down is a big blow against a dual-threat like Richardson.  I think the Colts are capable of keeping up with the Lions in a shootout as both teams will get their points in perfect conditions indoors.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in Lions last seven games overall with 56 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +8.5

This is the ultimate 'sell high' spot on the Detroit Lions.  They are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  I successfully faded them in their lone non-cover during this stretch backing the Texans as 3.5-point home underdogs in a 3-point loss two weeks ago.

But Detroit blasted Jacksonville last week 52-6 in a game where it looked like the Jaguars simply quit.  Mac Jones was the starting QB too for the injury-ravaged Jaguars.  Teams off a win by 35-plus points who are a favorite or a dog of +3 or less the next week like the Lions are just 17-34-1 ATS since 2021.  This trend just goes to show how teams off a blowout win are overvalued the next week.

The Lions have been getting pretty lucky as far as facing teams are the right time here of late.  The Titans were starting Mason Rudolph, the Packers were starting a hobbled Jordan Love who gifted them a pick-6, the Texans were missing Nico Collins and Will Anderson which are two of their three best players, and the Jaguars were missing Trevor Lawrence among others.

I think this is where Detroit meets its match.  This is a very healthy Indianapolis Colts team that is motivated to make the playoffs sitting at 5-6 and just one game behind the Broncos for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC.  Anthony Richardson returned at QB last week and played one of the best games of his career.

He went 20-of-30 passing for 272 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for two scores, including the game-winner when they had to have it trailing by 5 on their final drive.  Their defense is playing much better in recent weeks now that they're healthy, and they only allowed 10 first down for the entire game to the Jets.  It was actually a misleading 28-27 final as 4-point road underdogs.  I was on the Colts last week as well.

The Colts play more zone defense than any team in the NFL.  Jared Goff kills man-to-man and struggles against zone.  Goff has a 13-to-0 TD/INT ratio this season against teams that play mostly man, and a 7-to-9 TD/INT ratio against teams that play mostly zone.

The Lions don't have a very good defense without Aidan Hutchinson and now without their green dot in LB Alex Anzalone, who is one of the most underrated linebackers in the league.  They lost him last week against the Jaguars and he won't return until the end of the season.  They play a lot of man-to-man defense, and Richardson should kill man-to-man with his ability to run the ball.  Not having Anzalone out there to chase him down is a big blow against a dual-threat like Richardson.  

I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts win this game outright, but getting more than 7 points with them at home is absurd.  The Colts are 8-3 ATS in all games this season and have just one loss by more than 8 points all season, and that was a misleading 10-point loss to Buffalo that was aided by a pick-6 and four turnovers overall, including 3 interceptions from Joe Flacco.  Richardson is 6-1 ATS as a starting QB this season.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers +11

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They are coming off a bye, and first-year head coaches benefit the most from byes.  The Panthers needed the bye because they were one of the most banged up teams in the NFL.  But reinforcements are on the way now coming out of the bye.

It looks like the Panthers should be getting back WR Adam Thielen, RB Jonathan Brooks, DE Jadeveon Clowney, LB DJ Wonnum, LB DJ Johnson and DE LaBryan Ray among others.  The Panthers won outright as 7-point home dogs over the Saints and outright as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral to the Giants in Germany going into their bye.

Now they should be motivated coming out of their bye with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs coming to town.  The spot is a bad one for the Chiefs, who suffered their first loss of the season 30-21 on the road to the Bills last week.  That ended their perfect season, and I think there will be a hangover effect here with the type of loss that could beat a team twice.

The Chiefs were living on borrowed time as it is.  They are 7-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  Eight of their nine wins came by 10 points or fewer as well.  They were just able to mask a lot of their problems by coming up clutch late in games.  Their luck has run out, and asking them to now go on the road again and beat a rejuvenated Panthers team coming off a bye is asking too much.

Mahomes is 0-3-1 ATS in his career as a double-digit road favorite.  He has struggled throughout his career covering spreads of 7 or more as the Chiefs just have a knack of playing to their level of competition and playing in close games.  That's evidenced by the fact that nine of their 10 games this season have been decided by 10 points or less.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* Steelers/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 36

The lookahead total for this game was 42.  Bettors were anticipating weather so they bet this all the way down to a low of 36.  I bought the dip at 36 below the key numbers of 37 and 38 when it comes to NFL totals.  I think there's great value here on the OVER 36.

The forecast looks much better now than they projected early in the week, which happens all the time.  What was forecast to be 15-20 MPH winds is now in the single-digits.  Yes, there will be possible snow and rain, but wind affects scoring much more than precipitation.  A slick field actually favors the offense because players know where they are going.

The Steelers were trending as an OVER team with Russell Wilson at quarterback.  They went 3-0 OVER in his first three starts with 52, 44 and 55 combined points before a 18-16 victory over the Ravens last week that stayed well under the total of 48.5.  That result I think is keeping this total lower than it should be as well.

The Steelers had to settle for 6 field goals against the Ravens as they simply could not punch in their scoring chances.  The Ravens also blew some opportunities as well.  And that's one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL and usually lower scoring to boot as they know each other inside and out.

Cleveland is an OVER team with Jameis Winston at quarterback. They have gone for 53, 37 and 49 combined points in his three starts.  He stretches the field with big plays and big mistakes.  Winston threw for 395 yards and 2 TD against the Saints last week in a 35-14 loss.  The Browns left a lot of points on the board including three missed field goals.  They still managed 49 combined points.

That's because this Cleveland defense is broken.  They allowed 35 points and 473 total yards to what was a short-handed New Orleans offense.  Taysom Hill ran for 138 yards on only seven carries and three touchdowns.  I think the Steelers will have similar success against them tonight.

The Steelers and Browns have combined for at least 40 points in seven of their last nine meetings.  And there has been some very poor QB play during this stretch, but I think these two teams are in about as good a shape as they have been at the QB position in a long time.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Texans/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -7

I jumped on the Texans +5 on the opener last week against the Lions with the anticipation that Nico Collins would be back.  He ended up getting scratched right before the game, and I felt fortunate to cash that ticket in a 3-point loss to the Lions even though the Texans led that game 23-7 at home point.

Now Nico Collins is officially back this week, which is why I'm willing to lay the -7 with the Texans among other factors.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  He means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense, which has actually produced a great running game this season with Joe Mixon.  Now the passing game will take off again this week.

Of course, it helps that the Texans get to play the hapless Dallas Cowboys.  The Texans will be motivated coming off two consecutive losses so they won't be looking past Dallas.  And they get to take on a Cowboys team that just isn't very good for starters, and one that has been decimated by injuries this season as well.

The Cowboys are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost 47-9 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Lions, 30-24 as 5.5-point road dogs to the 49ers, 27-21 as 3.5-point road dogs to the Falcons and 34-6 as 7-point home dogs to the Eagles.  And they even scored a garbage TD late against the 49ers to make that score look closer than it was, and a garbage score against the Falcons late to make that score closer than it was.

The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott to injury in that loss to the Falcons to boot.  We saw what this team looks like without Dak at QB, and it's not pretty.  That 34-6 loss to the Eagles was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Cowboys managed just 146 total yards and 11 first downs against the Eagles.  They had 49 net passing yards on 26 attempts, averaging less than 2 yards per attempt.  I don't think I've ever seen passing numbers in the NFL that are that poor.

It's not going to get any easier this week against a Houston Texans defense that has been great all season.  The Texans rank 3rd in total defense at 288.0 yards per game and 5th at 5.2 yards per play allowed.  They rank 4th against the pass at 174.7 passing yards per game allowed, so Cooper Rush or Trey Lance won't be able to come back on them once they take a commanding lead.

Dallas is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS at home this season and has trailed by at least 20 points in all four home games.  They lost 44-19 to the Saints, 28-25 to the Ravens after trailing by 22 entering the 4th, 47-9 to the Lions and 34-6 to the Eagles.  And they had Dak Prescott running the offense for those first three games.  

The Cowboys don't have a running game to help out their QB, and they are lacking weapons outside of CeeDee Lamb, who is banged up right now.  They just aren't going to be able to score enough to keep this game competitive.  Houston is in line for one of its best offensive outputs of the season and hungry to get the offense going with Collins back.  Bet the Texans Monday.

15* Bengals/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 45

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall with 51 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  They just went for 69 combined points with the Ravens, 65 with the Raiders and 54 with the Eagles in their last three games coming in.

Now the Bengals get their star WR Tee Higgins back from injury this week and will be even more potent on offense.  They put up 41 points on the Raiders and 34 points and 470 yards on the Ravens in their last two games without him.  LT Orlando Brown may be back this week as well.

The Chargers have been an under team this season and they do have a great defense.  However, they have benefited from facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL.  They have faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis this season.  Mahomes was missing many of his key weapons.

The current version of this Cincinnati offense will be far and away the best the Chargers have seen all season.  The Chargers will be forced to keep up in a shootout, and they should be able to do just that with the way their offense is trending in recent weeks since getting several key players back from injury.

The Chargers put up 26 points on the Saints and weren't pressed so they took their foot off the gas late in that game.  They put up 27 points on the Browns on the road and 27 points on the Titans at home.  Those are two very underrated defenses.  Now they get to face a Cincinnati defense that ranks 26th in scoring at 26.2 points per game and 23rd in total defense at 347.5 yards per game.  The Chargers are in line for one of their best offensive performances of the season.  Cincinnati is without LB Joe Bachie and both DE Trey Hendrickson and DT BJ Hill are questionable.

This has the makings of a shootout in perfect conditions in Los Angeles Sunday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Falcons/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44

The Atlanta Falcons are a dead nuts OVER team that hasn't exactly gone of the total much this season at 6-4 to the UNDER.  That is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Falcons have one of the best offenses in the NFL, but also one of the worst defenses in the league in their current state.  This total of 44 is too low for a game involving Atlanta right now.

The Falcons rank 5th in the NFL in total offense at 375.1 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  The put up 468 total yards on the Saints last week but only 17 points.  They missed three field goals and bogged down in the red zone.  I think that misleading 20-17 final against the Saints last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.

The Falcons allowed 365 total yards to what was a very injury-ravaged Saints offense that was missing their top three receivers and a couple offensive linemen.  The Saints picked up Marquez Valdes-Scantling off the street and he went for 109 receiving yards and 2 TD on this Atlanta defense.

Things have gone from bad to worse for this Atlanta defense, which gets the least pressure of any defense in the NFL this season with just 9.5 sacks in 10 games.  The injury report for their defense is almost laughable.  They are without CB Mike Hughes, CB Dee Alford, CB Antonio Hamilton and already have three other secondary players on IR.  They are without LB Troy Anderson, LB JD Bertrand, DE Ta'Quon Graham and LB James Smith-Williams.  They have 6 defenders on IR and 7 defenders ruled out just this week.  Mercy.

This Denver offense has been trending up under Rookie QB Bo Nix, who is arguably the second-best rookie QB in the NFL behind Jayden Daniels.  They put up 34 on the Raiders, 33 on the Saints and 28 on the Panthers.  Nix played a near perfect game against the Chiefs last week on the road going 22-of-30 passing for 215 yards and 2 TD and led what should have been the game-winning drive, but the Broncos had a short FG blocked on the final play that would have given them the upset win.

Nix and company should have one of their best games of the season against this injury-ravaged Atlanta defense.  The Falcons are going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because they aren't stopping Denver.  This is a solid Denver defense, but it's also true that they have benefited from facing a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses this season.  We saw what could happen against a legit offense two games ago when they allowed 41 points and 396 total yards to the Ravens.  The Falcons won't have that kind of success, but they will have enough to get us up and OVER this short total of 44.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

5* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Denver Broncos ML -128

I cashed in the Broncos +9 in their 16-14 loss to the Chiefs last week.  It was the type of gut-wrenching loss that I think sometimes beats a team twice, and as a result I didn't expect to be on the Broncos this week.  But I like the quotes coming out of their locker room off the loss, and once I saw the injury report for Atlanta, I have to be on the Broncos this week.

The Broncos sit at 5-5 on the season and still in great position to make the playoffs, but this feels like a must-win, so they should have no problem getting over the loss. to KC last week.  Atlanta has a commanding lead in the NFC South and won't be playing with as much urgency this week sitting at 6-4 on the season.

"This team has been resilient.  The sky isn't falling," head coach Sean Payton said. "We're sitting here 5-5 and we would've loved to be 6-4 with a win, but the focus shifts quickly to the next game.  I like the leadership on this time.  It's entirely different than it was a year ago.  It's tough mentally and physically, and we've got a good week of practice coming up before Atlanta."

The Broncos are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after facing the Chiefs in their previous game.  So, they haven't had letdowns in this spot previously, and they won't be having one Sunday, either.

This Denver offense has been trending up under rookie QB Bo Nix, who is arguably the second-best rookie QB in the NFL behind Jayden Daniels.  They put up 34 on the Raiders, 33 on the Saints and 28 on the Panthers.  Nix played a near perfect game against the Chiefs last week on the road going 22-of-30 passing for 215 yards and 2 TD and led what should have been the game-winning drive, but the Broncos had a short FG blocked on the final play that would have given them the upset win. Nix and company should have one of their best games of the season against this injury-ravaged Atlanta defense.

The Falcons allowed 365 total yards to what was a very injury-ravaged Saints offense that was missing their top three receivers and a couple offensive linemen.  The Saints picked up Marquez Valdes-Scantling off the street and he went for 109 receiving yards and 2 TD on this Atlanta defense.  The Saints upset the Falcons 20-17 at home despite all their injuries both on offense and on defense.

Things have gone from bad to worse for this Atlanta defense, which gets the least pressure of any defense in the NFL this season with just 9.5 sacks in 10 games.  The injury report for their defense is almost laughable.  They are without CB Mike Hughes, CB Dee Alford, CB Antonio Hamilton and already have three other secondary players on IR.  They are without LB Troy Anderson, LB JD Bertrand, DE Ta'Quon Graham and LB James Smith-Williams.  They have 6 defenders on IR and 7 defenders ruled out just this week.  Mercy.

While the Falcons have a great offense, I think the Broncos can hold them in check.  Denver is basically fully healthy on both sides of the football, and this defense has been the backbone of the team.  The Broncos rank 4th in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game and 5th in total defense at 295.7 points per game.  They rank 1st at 5.0 yards per play allowed.

Both teams will get their points, especially Denver, but this game will be decided by the Broncos getting more stops than this decimated Atlanta defense.  I really like the Broncos, and I really like the OVER in this game this week due to those Atlanta injuries.  Bet the Broncos on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 48

The San Francisco 49ers just got their full compliment of weapons back last week coming out of their bye.  They got Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and JaJuan Jenning all back from injury against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Those three combined for 276 of their 413 yards from scrimmage to show their importance to this team.  This 49ers offense is one of the best in the NFL when healthy, and that hasn't been the case for much of the season, and they are still putting up some of the best numbers in the league.

The 49ers rank 2nd in total offense at 412.4 yards per game and 2nd at 6.8 yards per play trailing only the potent Baltimore Ravens in both categories.  They have been able to score at will on Seattle for years as they just have their number, and they will be able to pretty much name their number against Seattle again.

The 49ers have averaged 34 points per game in their last four meetings with Seattle.  They beat the Seahawks 36-24 in their first meeting this season for 60 combined points, and a similar shootout will be the result in the rematch.  The 49ers had 483 total yards in that win.

Reinforcements are on the way for Seattle on offense now as well.  They had a bye last week, and DK Metcalf was close to coming back before the bye, and now he should be 100% coming out of the bye.  Metcalf means everything to this Seattle offense with his ability to stretch the field.  He has 568 receiving yards in basically just six games of action while averaging 16.2 per reception.

Geno Smith was lost the last two games without Metcalf against the Bills and Rams.  He will be much more comfortable this week.  He leads a Seattle offense that ranks 9th in total offense at 359.4 yards per game and 10th at 5.9 yards per play.  Geno threw for 312 yards in that first meeting with the 49ers and the Seahawks found a lot of success once they went up-tempo, which is something they may look to deploy again in the rematch.  That would benefit the OVER.

The 49ers just aren't as dominant defensively as they have been in the past, and Nick Bosa has been a non-factor for much of the season.  The Seahawks haven't lived up to the hype defensively this season with Mike McDonald.  They have allowed 26 or more points in five of their last six games and an average of 29.7 points per game during this stretch.  

I just don't think McDonald has the right players to run what he wants to run, and he even just cut his leading tackler in LB Tyrel Dodson.  The 49ers aren't the offense to get right against defensively coming out of their bye week. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Green Bay Packers -6

The Green Bay Packers are coming off their bye week and should be basically fully healthy for the first time this season.  They are expected to get both CB Jaire Alexander and SS Evan Williams back from injury on defense this week, and they are one of the better defenses in the NFL when fully healthy.

Jordan Love returned early from a groin injury against the Lions and threw a costly pick-6 in a misleading 24-14 loss to the Lions going into the bye.  The Packers outgained the Lions 411 to 261 in that game, or by 150 total yards.  Love should be much healthier and get back to being his mobile self coming out of the bye.

But as much as I'm buying on the Packers coming off their bye, I'm selling on the Chicago Bears right now.  This organization is a mess right now, and head coach Eberflus is losing the locker room.  Clearly receivers aren't happy with Caleb Williams, most notably DJ Moore, and Williams is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league that is also banged up.

The Bears haven't scored a TD in 23 straight possessions on offense.  Caleb Williams has been sacked a league-high 38 times this season including 9 times last week by the Patriots alone.  The Bears were missing five starters along the offensive line at one point in that New England game due to injury.  They managed just 142 total yards against New England.

The Bears haven't recovered since losing on a hail mary in a 18-15 loss at Washington coming out of their bye week.  They didn't do anything in that game offensively until the 4th quarter as they were shut out in the first three quarters.  They went on to lose 29-9 at Arizona and 19-3 at home to the Patriots, part of their 23 straight possessions without an offensive TD.  Now they have to take a step up in class here against the Packers, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

The Packers are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Bears with all 10 wins coming by 7 points or more.  Green Bay is 30-12-1 ATS in the last 43 meetings dating back further.  Road favorites off a bye are 76-51-4 (60%) ATS since 2004.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +4

The New York Jets continue to take money week after week and it makes no sense.  The Jets are now 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone win coming against a hobbled Houston Texans team.  The losses are the most concerning.

The Jets lost last week 31-6 at Arizona despite going off as 2-point favorites.  They lost 25-22 at New England as 7-point favorites.  They lost 37-15 at Pittsburgh as 2.5-point favorites the game prior.  They have gotten worse since firing head coach Robert Saleh, especially defensively.  Giving up 37 points to Pittsburgh and 25 to New England is bad, and they allowed 31 points and 406 total yards to Arizona last week.  Most of that was done in the first three quarters at it was 31-6 Arizona with 4:13 left in the 3rd and it remained that way only after the Cardinals called off the dogs.

This New York offense is broken, too.  The Jets managed just 207 total yards on a suspect Arizona defense last week despite trailing from the jump and being in catch up mode the entire time.  Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons, but the problem is the banged up offensive line that cannot protect him.  The Jets are missing four offensive linemen and three more are banged up and possibly will try to play through injury.  What a mess.

While the Jets are all but eliminated from playoff contention at 3-7, the Colts sit at 4-6 and still very much alive as that one game difference is huge in the AFC.  They have new life going back to Anthony Richardson at QB this week after Joe Flacco clearly was not the answer.  I think having the last two weeks off will do Richardson a lot of good and allow him to correct mistakes.

The Colts are a much healthier team than the Jets.  They get WR Michael Pittman back this week and are fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Bernhard Raimann.  They are also fully healthy on defense for basically the first time this season with only LB EJ Speed questionable.

After losses by 8 at Minnesota and by 10 at home to Buffalo this week, the Colts will be happy to take a big step down in class this week against the Jets.  That was a misleading final against the Bills, who scored a defensive TD and only outgained the Colts by 44 yards.  They benefited from four Indianapolis turnovers.

Look for the Colts to go run-heavy here with the read-option with dual-threat Richardson to take advantage of a very bad New York run defense.  The Jets have allowed 147 or more rushing yards in four of their last five games.  They really missed MLB CJ Mosely, the leader of their defense who remains out.  Their defense hasn't been the same since losing him.  Look for a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor and Richardson on the ground as the Colts keep this game close for four quarters and likely pull off the upset.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* Ravens/Steelers AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 46

The Pittsburgh Steelers have only faced Lamar Jackson once in their last five meetings with the Ravens either due to Jackson being injured or Baltimore resting its starters.  They're going to have to face the NFL MVP Sunday, and they aren't going to enjoy the experience.

This Baltimore offense is one of the best in NFL history.  The Ravens rank 1st in scoring at 31.8 points per game, 1st in total offense at 440.2 yards per game and 1st at 7.2 yards per play.  Jackson has more weapons than he has ever had with Flowers, Bateman, Johnson, Andrews, Likely, Hill and Agholor, and he has one of the best RB's the NFL has ever seen in Derrick Henry, who has already rushed for 1,120 yards and 12 TD.

The Steelers have a great defense, but they have also benefited from playing the league's 6th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses.  The Ravens will be far and away the best offense they have faced yet, and I don't expect it to go well for them.  The Steelers just lost one of their best pass rushers in LB Alex Highsmith last week to injury, and he is out for this one.  Not having him is a big blow to their defense.

The Steelers have taken off offensively since switching to Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback.  The OVER is 3-0 in Steelers last three games overall as they put up 37 points and 409 total yards on the Jets, 26 points and 426 total yards on the Giants and 28 points and 312 total yards on the Commanders.  The Steelers now have a downfield passing game with Wilson, and he has ample weapons with George Pickens leading the way plus the addition of Mike Williams.

The Steelers are capable of keeping up with the Ravens in a shootout and they are going to be forced to do just that, because the Ravens are going to get their points.  The weakness of Baltimore is their pass defense.  They rank dead last (32nd) in the NFL allowing 294.9 passing yards per game and 29th at 7.4 yards per attempt.  SS Kyle Hamilton is their most important player in the secondary and he is hobbled with an ankle injury.  Nickel CB Arthur Maulet is out, and NT Travis Jones is questionable as the Ravens are getting very thin on the defensive line.

These games between the Ravens and Steelers have been low-scoring in the pass largely because both were missing their starting QB's due to either rest or injury.  That's has been especially the case with Lamar Jackson, who has missed four of the last five meetings. But both teams are in the best shape they have been in a long time at the QB position coming into this one now.  I think the series history is keeping this total lower than it should be.  This has the makings of a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Commanders/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3

The Philadelphia Eagles got a much-needed bye in Week 5 to get healthy.  They got both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith back out of their bye, and they haven't looked back since.  Nobody is playing better than the Eagles since Week 6.

The Eagles are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0 ATS as well when you dig into the box scores.  They came out of their bye with a 20-16 home win over the Browns, but this was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Browns got a 50-yard blocked FG return TD right before half that turned a 13-3 game into a 10-10 game.  Philadelphia outgained Cleveland 372 to 244, or by 128 total yards.

The Eagles came back with a dominant 28-3 road win over the New York Giants in their next game.  They outgained the Giants 339 to 119, or by 220 total yards.  Their 37-17 dismantling of Cincinnati on the road might have been the most impressive of the bunch.  They outgained the Bengals 397 to 270, or by 137 total yards.  Holding Joe Burrow down like that is no fluke.

I was on the Eagles -7 in their 28-23 win over the Jaguars two weeks ago.  It was probably my worst beat of the season.  The Eagles led 22-0 and were cruising until a fluke fumble by Saquan Barkley that was caused by the ground was returned for a TD.  The Jaguars got in the back door despite the Eagles outgaining them 447 to 215, or by 232 total yards.  Last week the Eagles made easy work of the Cowboys winning 34-6 on the road and outgaining them 348 to 146, or by 202 total yards.

The offense features arguably the best playmakers in the entire NFL in QB Hurts, RB Barkley, WR Brown and WR Smith.  They recently got TE Dallas Goedert back from injury and are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now on both sides of the football.  But the improvement from the defense under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio is why I'm so high on this team.

The Eagles are allowing just 198.8 yards per game in their last five games, which is unheard of in today's NFL.  The defense has allowed a total of three touchdowns in those five games.  The offense is averaging 380.6 yards per game during this same stretch, so they are outgaining opponents by 182 yards per game.

While the Eagles are fresh having already had their bye week plus blowing out the Cowboys on Sunday putting in little effort, this is a tired Washington Commanders team that hasn't had their bye week yet.  They have played three straight one-score games with their hail mary win against the Bears three weeks ago and their 27-22 win at the Giants two weeks ago, and those performances haven't aged well.  

The Commanders were in a dog fight last week in a 28-27 loss to the Steelers, which was also a very physical game.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Eagles this week.  They have three starting offensive linemen questionable, their starting RB questionable, two starters on D questionable, and K Austin Seibert out. I like this Commanders team and have bet them several times, but this is the spot to fade them as they are tired, on a short week, and with a first-year head coach and a rookie QB.  Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last six meetings with Washington with all five wins by 3 points or more.  Bet the Eagles Thursday.

20* Dolphins/Rams ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50.5

Having a healthy Tua Tagovailoa on the field makes all the difference for this Miami offense.  That has played out the last two weeks as they put up 27 points and 377 total yards against the Cardinals in his return two weeks ago, and then 27 points and 373 total yards against the Buffalo Bills last week.

Having a healthy Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua makes all the difference for this Rams offense as well.  Kupp and Nacua returned two weeks ago to lead the Rams to a 30-20 win over the Vikings behind 386 total yards.  They also put up 26 points last week on the Seahawks despite Nacua getting ejected in the 1H.  He will be back this week, and all four of these guys are healthy.

Given the current health of both of these offenses, I expect both to have their way with these suspect opposing defenses.  The Dolphins just gave up 28 points to the Cardinals and 30 points to the Bills in their last two games.  The Rams have allowed at least 20 points in eight of their nine games, including 24 or more six times.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Dolphins/Rams ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles ML -130

I've backed the Rams with success in each of their last two games and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons.  Having a healthy Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua makes all the difference for this Rams offense.  Kupp and Nacua returned two weeks ago to lead the Rams to a 30-20 win over the Vikings behind 386 total yards.  They also put up 26 points last week on the Seahawks despite Nacua getting ejected in the 1H.  He will be back this week, and all four of these guys are healthy.

This Los Angeles defense is better than it gets credit for, too.  The Rams have held their last three opponents to an average of 18.3 points per game.  They held the Vikings to just 276 total yards in their last home game which is no small feat considering all of their weapons.  I like the way this Los Angeles defense is trending much more than that of the Dolphins.

Yes, the Dolphins have a much better offense with Tua Tagovailoa back and healthy, but they still managed to lose their last two games.  They lost 28-27 at home to Arizona in his return two weeks ago, and they lost 30-27 at Buffalo last week.  That game against Buffalo was really their 'last stand' in trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.  They now sit at just 2-6 on the season, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

I like the mindset of this Rams team a lot more right now.  They gutted out two huge wins against the Vikings and Seahawks the last two weeks to improve to 4-4 on the season.  They now trail the Cardinals by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the NFC West.  The Cardinals are underdogs to the Jets this week, so they could find themselves in 1st place with a win.  The Rams also have a huge advantage at head coach with Sean McVay over Mike McDaniels.  Bet the Rams on the Money Line Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Texans OVER 48

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one of the worst defenses since losing by far their best defender in DE Aidan Hutchinson.  Their defense hasn't totally been exposed yet due to circumstance, but they will get exposed by the Houston Texans tonight and will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout indoors in perfect conditions.

The Lions rank 1st in scoring offense at 32.2 points per game and 4th averaging 6.3 yards per play.  But defensively they rank just 22nd in total defense at 357.1 yards per game allowed and 24th at 5.9 yards per play.  Not only are they without Hutchinson, but they are also without LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Emmanuel Moseley, and they have six defensive linemen on IR.  That's why they traded for DE Za'Darius Smith, and he isn't even sure to play since it came on such short notice.

Three games ago the Lions allowed 383 yards to the Vikings.  Two games ago they allowed 416 total yards to what was a previously dead Tennessee offense.  And last week despite playing in a downpour all game, they allowed 411 total yards to the Packers.  They have been exposed as far as teams moving the football at will on them, it just hasn't exactly shown up on the scoreboard.

I'm 'buying' on this Houston Texans offense this week.  They already have a great running game with Joe Mixon, and now they should get Nico Collins back from injury this week, and he means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense.  He was officially activated to the 53-man roster on Saturday.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  They also got good news on Tank Dell as he is good to go as well.

The Texans will be without their best pass rusher in Will Anderson.  The Texans have allowed at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.  They will also be forced to keep up in a shootout because the Detroit Lions are going to be completely contained.  This is just a very low total for a game involving these two teams in their current state right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Texans +5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Detroit Lions.  They have been covering machines since Jared Goff and Dan Campbell teams up.  But now you are paying a tax to back them this week as they are 5-point road favorites on the opener against the Houston Texans, which I grabbed Sunday night.  I still like them down to the current line of +3.5 as I think the Texans can win this game outright.

While the Lions have a great offense, they have a defense that has been exposed due to all their injuries, it just hasn't exactly shown up on the scoreboard yet.  Detroit ranks just 22nd in total defense at 357.1 yards per game allowed and 24th at 5.9 yards per play.  Not only are they without their most important defender in DE Aidan Hutchinson, but they are also without LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Emmanuel Moseley, and they have six defensive linemen on IR.  That's why they traded for DE Za'Darius Smith, and he isn't even sure to play since it came on such short notice.

Three games ago the Lions allowed 383 yards to the Vikings.  Two games ago they allowed 416 total yards to what was a previously dead Tennessee offense.  And last week despite playing in a downpour all game, they allowed 411 total yards to the Packers.  They have been exposed as far as teams moving the football at will on them, and more times than not teams are going to turn those yards into points.

I'm 'buying' on this Houston Texans offense this week.  They already have a great running game with Joe Mixon, and now they should get Nico Collins back from injury this week, and he means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense.  He was officially activated to the 53-man roster on Saturday.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  They also got good news on Tank Dell as he is good to go as well.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Lions, who sit in 1st place in the NFC North and  1st place in the NFC after a huge 24-14 win at Green Bay last week.  They also beat the Vikings and the Cowboys on the road recently.  They are 'fat and happy' right now and ready to get knocked off their pedestal.  It was a misleading win over the Packers to boot because they were outgained by 150 yards by the Packers.  But the difference in the game was a bad pick-6 by a hobbled Jordan Love when he was trying to avoid a sack in the rain.

The spot is a great one for the Texans.  They are motivated coming off a road loss to the Jets, and that was on Thursday Night Football last week.  So they have had a mini-bye to get healthy and refocused, and they needed to get healthy especially on offense at receivers and along the offensive line.  They should be fully healthy on defense as well with the exception of DE Will Anderson.  I love the spot for them this week.  Bet the Texans Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Commanders OVER 44

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL ranking 3rd in scoring at 29.2 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 392.0 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play.  The Pittsburgh Steelers haven't seen an offense as good as Washington yet.

But the Commanders have a leaky defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in allowing 6.0 yards per play.  They traded for CB Marshon Lattimore, but he isn't going to play this week due to a hamstring injury.  The Steelers should be able to keep pace with the Commanders in a shootout Sunday.

I'm 'buying' on this Pittsburgh offense with Russell Wilson.  The Steelers have gone 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall, the last two the most impressive with Wilson at the helm.  He led them to a 37-15 win over the Jets and 52 combined points and followed it up with a 26-18 win over the Giants and 44 combined points.

The Steelers had 409 total yards against a very good Jets' defense.  Wilson threw for 264 yards and 2 TD while opening things up for Najee Harris, who rushed for 102 yards and a score.  The Steelers had another 426 total yards against the Giants last time out.  Wilson threw for 278 yards and a score and Harris rushed for 114 yards in the win.

Washington and its opponents have combined for at least 47 points in seven of its nine games this season.  This total of 44 is too low for a game involving the Commanders, especially when you consider just how much better this Pittsburgh offense has been with Wilson at QB.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +9

The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-0 this season and the last unbeaten team remaining in the NFL.  With that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are tough to live up to.  We have seen that play out in recent weeks as the Chiefs haven't been able to cover these large numbers.

The Chiefs beat a decimated, struggling Raiders team 27-20 on the road as 8.5-point favorites two weeks ago.  Last week they needed OT to beat an even more decimated Bucs team that was missing their top three receivers.  They won 30-24 (OT) as 8.5-point favorites.

Now the Chiefs are on a short week after playing on Monday and a tired team coming off an OT game.  Teams coming off OT games who are playing on 8 or fewer days' rest are 107-140 SU & 108-136-3 ATS over the last decade.  Teams playing on just six days of rest coming off an OT game on MNF are 17-21 SU & 15-23 ATS during this same time frame.

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Denver Broncos coming off a 41-10 blowout loss at Baltimore, which may be the best team in the league.  It was a bit of a misleading loss as the Broncos consistently marched into Baltimore territory but didn't get much out of it.  They were only outgained by 77 yards by the Ravens.

Keep in mind the Broncos had gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their previous six games prior to losing to Baltimore with their lone loss coming by 7 points to the Chargers, who were off a bye week and much healthier.  Four of their five wins during this stretch came by 14 points or more.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face a division rival in Kansas City, who they have played very tough in recent meetings.  The Broncos are 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with three of the four losses coming by 6 points or less.

Bo Nix is 4-1 ATS on the road this season.  Sean Payton is 81-59-3 ATS in road/neutral games as a head coach.  Payton is also 56-38-2 ATS as an underdog.  The Chiefs have been terrible as a favorite of -7 or more in the Mahomes era.  They just have a way of playing to the level of their competition, and they aren't going to be all that motivated this week as they are 'fat and happy' at 8-0 right now.  They also have a huge game against the Bills on deck next week that they could be looking ahead to.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers -6

This is an eerily similar spot to last year when the 49ers had lost three straight games going into their bye week thanks to injuries.  It was one of my biggest plays of the season on the 49ers last year as they were getting healthy coming out of their bye getting Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams all back from injury.  The 49ers delivered with a 34-3 win at Jacksonville as 3-point favorites.

Now the 49ers return from their bye week expected to get back three of their best offensive weapons in McCaffrey, Deebo and JaJuan Jennings.  That's big because they lost WR Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending injury.  Jennings was making a bunch of plays before going down with injury, and CMC is worth about as much to the spread as any RB in the NFL.  Deebo does what he does making plays at receiver and out of the backfield.

The healthy 49ers team is a dangerous one, and they will be as healthy as they have been at any point this season coming out of their bye week.  I believe they can beat anybody in their current state, and I certainly think they'll make easy work of this short-handed Tampa Bay Bucs team that is not only extremely banged up, but also at a big rest disadvantage.

The Bucs will have to try and get back up off the mat on a short week after losing in OT to the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.  They gave it a valiant effort, but came up just short against the defending champs.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and their defense has to be gassed after the Chiefs got the ball first in OT and matriculated the ball down the field for the game-winning score.

The Bucs haven't gotten a bye yet this season and are a tired team with the injuries piling up.  They have an extremely suspect defense that ranks 28th in scoring at 27.0 points per game, 39th in total defense at 386.7 yards per game and 26th at 6.0 yards per play.  The Bucs have allowed an average of 33 points per game in their last five games.

While the Bucs have been short-handed on defense due to injuries for most of the season, the offense is in even worse shape right now injury-wise.  They lost their top two receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans two weeks ago.  Godwin is out for the season and Evans is unlikely to return this week.  No. 3 receiver Jalen McMillan missed the game Monday and is questionable to return.  No. 5 receiver Sterling Shepard is questionable.  They could be without four of their top five receivers, plus QB Baker Mayfield misses practice on Wednesday with a toe injury, though I expect he will go.

With all these injuries, it's no wonder the Bucs are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their lone win coming against the short-handed Saints.  It's going to get worse before it gets better until they get some of these key guys back from injury.  I don't give them much of a chance of keeping this game competitive against a healthy, rested and motivated San Francisco team this week.  

The 49ers are 4-4 right now and chasing the Cardinals in a tight NFC West race.  They have no margin for error now.  But despite all their injuries up to this point, the 49ers still have some of the best numbers in the NFL.  They are 2nd in total offense at 412.4 yards per game and 10th in total defense at 314.8 yards per game.  They are nearly outgaining their opponents by 100 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play on the season.  They really should be 6-2 or better right now, but their 4-4 record has them undervalued.  

Road favorites off a bye have been a huge money maker for years in the NFL.  Road favorites off a bye have covered the spread 60.4% of the time since 2004.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS thus far this season, and they will remain perfect courtesy of a San Francisco blowout in this one.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

20* Bengals/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 52

The Baltimore Ravens are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 8-1 OVER in all games this season with 45 or more combined points in all nine games, including 51 or more combined points in five consecutive games.

The Ravens have one of the best offenses in NFL history.  They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 31.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 445.9 yards per game and 1st at 7.3 yards per play.  To average 6.5 yards per play is elite in the NFL, and they are averaging way more than that despite being a run-heavy team averaging 5.9 per carry on 33 attempts per game.

Teams can continue to come back on the Ravens because the weakness of their team is their secondary.  They rank dead last (32nd) in the NFL against the pass, allowing 280.9 passing yards per game.  They are also 28th allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt.

Now they face a pass-heavy Cincinnati Bengals offense that ranks 7th in the NFL in passing yards per game.  Joe Burrow threw for 251 yards and 5 TD in leading the Bengals to a 41-24 win over the Raiders last week that saw 65 combined points.

Baltimore won 41-38 (OT) for 79 combined points in an absolute shootout against the Bengals in their first meeting this season.  The Ravens racked up 520 total yards on this soft Cincinnati defense and will have another big game in the rematch.  Burrow threw for 392 yards and 5 TD to go toe-for-toe with Lamar Jackson and company in that first meeting.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 51 or more combined points in all three.  It will be more of the same here.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Colts/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 46.5

The Indianapolis Colts announced they were going to start Joe Flacco for the foreseeable future this week. The Colts are a dead nuts OVER team with Flacco at quarterback, so I'm happy to get this OVER 46.5 under the key numbers of 47 and 48 this week.

We saw the Cleveland Browns take off on offense with Flacco under center last season turning them into a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch.  He has done the same in his few starts with the Colts this season.  Flacco just makes better use of all their weapons, and the Colts have some of the more underrated weapons in the NFL.  Jonathan Taylor is back healthy, and the trio of Pittman, Downs and Pierce at receiver showcase their talents at lot more with Flacco.

The Colts found themselves in a shootout with the Steelers in a 27-24 win for 51 combined points with Flacco at QB earlier this season.  They found themselves in another 37-34 shootout with the Jaguars and 71 combined points with Flacco under center the next week.  Anthony Richardson is the most inaccurate QB in the NFL, and their offense has been lacking with him under center the last couple weeks.  Him taking himself out of the game because he was tired last week was the final straw.

The Vikings have been a dead nuts OVER team in recent weeks.  They have gone for 50 or more combined points in three of their last four games.  Sam Darnold is proving what he can do when he finally has some weapons, and the Vikings have some of the best weapons in the entire NFL.  They have been rolling on offense this season with Jordan Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones making a ton of plays.  And now even more reinforcements are on the way.

The Vikings traded for LT Cam Robinson of the Jaguars this week to make up for the loss of LT Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week.  Robinson is one of the best left tackles in the game.  TE TJ Hockenson is expected to make his season debut this week as well.  Hockenson was a monster last season with 95 receptions for 960 yards and 5 TD.  This offense is going to be pretty unstoppable moving forward.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  The Vikings started the season great defensively, but opposing offenses are starting to figure them out.  They have allowed 29 or more points in three of their last four games.  The Colts rank 28th in total defense allowing 380 yards per game this season.  They have faced one of the weakest schedules of opposing offenses to boot.  This Minnesota offense will be the best offense they have faced since allowing 29 points and 417 yards to a fully healthy Texans offense back in Week 1.

It looks like there will be some weather in the NFL this week as we enter the month of November.  But that's not going to affect this game considering it is being played indoors at US Bank Stadium in Minnesota.  This game has shootout written all over it Sunday night.  Bet the OVER in this game.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles -1

I was big on the Rams in their last game as my 25* TNF GAME OF THE YEAR as +3.5 underdogs in a 30-20 upset home win over the Minnesota Vikings.  I'm back on them again for many of the same reasons.

They got both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back from injury last week, and their offense was fully healthy for basically the first time since Week 1.  They put up 386 total yards against the Vikings and held them to just 276 with an underrated defense.  I know Nacua tweaked his knee in practice this week since I released this play, but he is still expected to give it a go.

As much as I am 'buying' on the Rams right now, I'm 'selling' on the Seahawks just as much.  Since opening 3-0 against the softest schedule in the NFL up to that point, the Seahawks have since gone just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

The Seahawks lost by 13 at Detroit as 4-point dogs, by 9 at home to the Giants as 7-point favorites, by 12 at home to the 49ers as 3.5-point dogs and then by 21 at home last week to the Bills as 3-point dogs.  So they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three home games, and not even the 12th man can make up for all the injuries they are dealing with right now.

The Seahawks have allowed 29 or more points in four of their last five games.  They are banged up on defense and just not that talented on this side of the ball if I'm being honest.  They are also banged up on the offensive line as Geno Smith almost has no time to throw, and now he is without his best weapon in DK Metcalf, who has been ruled out again this week.

The Seahawks managed just 233 total yards against the Bills last week in their first game without Metcalf.  Buffalo also put up 445 total yards on this Seattle defense, doing pretty much whatever they wanted to despite the fact that the Seahawks got some guys back from injury.  There's just not a lot to like about this Seattle team on either side of the football.

The Rams are surging and back in the NFC West title hunt off two consecutive victories.  They are basically as healthy as they have been all season, and now they have extra time to rest and prepare after playing on Thursday last week.  The Seahawks are a tired, beat up team playing for a 9th consecutive week while the Rams already had their bye week.  Finally, Matthew Stafford has never lost to the Seahawks as a starting QB for the Rams.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Lions/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +3.5

I took the Green Bay Packers +3.5 before it was announced that Jordan Love was likely to play.  I liked them at this number with or without Love, so it has just been a bonus that he is expected to play since.  I fully expect the Packers to win this game outright as I believe they should be favored.

Amazingly, Jared Goff has been able to play his first seven games of the season all indoors.  Well, this will be his first outdoor game of the season, and while Goff is 39-16 ATS indoors, he is just 34-34-1 ATS outdoors.  Plus, the forecast is calling for a 95% chance of rain and 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau Field.  Goff has small hands which is why he struggles so much in the elements.

The Lions are grossly overvalued now after starting 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season.  They are coming off a misleading 52-14 home win over the Titans last week.  They had over 300 return yards and basically had three special teams touchdowns.  They only managed 225 total yards against the Titans and allowed 416, getting outgained by nearly 200 yards.

While Detroit has an elite offense, the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Lions are really beat up on the defensive line missing three starters including Aidan Hutchinson, who has 7 sacks, 1 FF and 17 QB hurries this season.  This is the game his loss is finally felt.  They are also going to be without LB Malcolm Rodriquez.

The Packers have the offense that can take advantage of these injuries.  They rank 6th in scoring at 27.0 points per game, 5th in total offense at 388.0 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are 5th in rushing at 156.9 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  They have more balance this season than they have had in a long time, and keep in mind they have played 2.5 games without Love.

Favorites of 3.5 or more points off a win by 35-plus points are 8-28 ATS in their last 36 tries.  Matt LaFleur is 28-16 ATS at home, including 6-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Eagles -7

The Philadelphia Eagles got a much-needed bye in Week 5 to get healthy.  They got both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith back out of their bye, and they haven't looked back since.  Nobody is playing better than the Eagles since Week 6.

The Eagles are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They came out of their bye with a 20-16 home win over the Browns, but this was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Browns got a 50-yard blocked FG return TD right before half that turned a 13-3 game into a 10-10 game.  Philadelphia outgained Cleveland 372 to 244, or by 128 total yards.

The Eagles came back with a dominant 28-3 road win over the New York Giants two weeks ago.  They outgained the Giants 339 to 119, or by 220 total yards.  And last week's 37-17 win at Cincinnati might have been the most impressive of the bunch.  They outgained the Bengals 397 to 270, or by 137 total yards.  Holding Joe Burrow down like that is no fluke.

The offense features arguably the best playmakers in the entire NFL in QB Hurts, RB Barkley, WR Brown and WR Smith.  But the improvement from the defense under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio is why I'm so high on this team.  The Eagles are allowing just 211 yards per game in their last three games.

While the Eagles remain fresh after having a bye already, the Jaguars have to be one of the most tired teams in the NFL.  They will be playing for a 9th consecutive week, which includes two games over in London.  They returned home last week and gave a valiant effort in a 30-27 home loss to the Green Bay Packers.  But it came at a much bigger cost than just one loss.

The Jaguars were decimated by injuries in that loss to the Packers.  They lost WR Christian Kirk to a season-ending injury.  Fellow starting WR's Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis were both knocked out of that game and questionable to play this week.  They lost starting LG Ezra Cleveland to injury and he is out this week.  And RG Brandon Scherff was knocked out and questionable to play this week.

So the Jaguars aren't going to have much success against this surging Philadelphia defense with all these offensive injuries.  And the Eagles should get whatever they want on offense against a very suspect Jacksonville defense.  The Jaguars rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.0 points per game, 29th in total defense at 382.1 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play.

The Jaguars are 0-4 in road games this season including a 47-10 blowout loss at Buffalo.  They also lost by 19 to Chicago over in London.  I don't love laying big numbers in the NFL, but getting the Eagles as 7-point favorites here is a discount given all the factors in their favor.  I expect them to win this game by double-digits.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Browns OVER 42

The Los Angeles Chargers are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They have their full compliment of weapons available on offense for basically the first time all season as both WR Quentin Johnson and TE Hayden Hurst are expected to return this week.  There's a chance they get WR DJ Chark back as well.

This Chargers offense is trending in the right direction going to a more pass-heavy scheme the last few weeks.  They managed 395 total yards on the Cardinals two weeks ago behind 349 passing yards from Justin Herbert.  They put up another 378 total yards on the Saints last week and 279 passing from Herbert.

I expect the Chargers to have plenty of success on offense against the Cleveland Browns, who are becoming decimated by injuries at linebacker.  They were already without starting MLB Jordan Hicks, and now they are going to be without WLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (61 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT), who suffered a neck injury against the Ravens last week.  He's their most important defender outside of Myles Garrett.  Top CB Denzel Ward suffered a concussion last week and is questionable.

Jameis Winston finally got a chance to start last week and rejuvenated this Cleveland offense.  The Browns topped 20 points for the first time all season, putting up 29 points and 401 total yards against Baltimore.  Winston went 27-of-41 passing for 334 yards with 3 touchdowns without an interception.

Of course, a big reason for his success was the fact that the Browns finally had all five starters healthy on the offensive line, and they were fully healthy on offense for the first time all season.  Winston is a great 'OVER' QB because he stretches the field and takes chances that most quarterbacks wouldn't.  That also makes him prone to interceptions, which also benefits the OVER and will set up the Chargers with some short fields.

The Chargers have great defensive numbers this season, which is a big reason this total is as low as it is.  But their schedule of opposing offenses has been pretty laughable.  They have played the Panthers, Raiders, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals, Chiefs and Steelers.  Many of those offenses were limited by injuries at QB and at the skill positions at the time they played them.

I think this will be the toughest test of the season for this Chargers defense now playing a fully healthy, more potent Cleveland offense this week.  Injuries are a problem for the Chargers as well with LB Joey Bosa and LB Denzel Perryman questionable, with CB's Kristian Fullton and Deane Leonard out.  

I like the fact that both offenses are going much more pass-heavy, which stops the clock on incompletions and creates more scoring chances at the same time.  This total of 42 is simply too low given the current state of both teams.  We are getting the over at a discount, especially with the forecast calling for temps in the 60's, no rain and almost no wind in Cleveland Sunday afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Texans/Jets AFC No-Brainer on New York PK

The New York Jets (2-6) are favored over the Houston Texans (6-2) despite being four games back of them.  I agree with them being favored because these teams could easily have their records reversed when you dive into it.

The Jets aren't nearly as bad as their 2-6 record would indicate.  Their kicker cost them three games and they should be 5-3 at minimum.  That's why they are changing kickers this week.  Four of their five losses have come by 6 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.

The Texans are 6-2 this season, but five of their six wins came by 6 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer.  Their lone blowout win came against the lowly New England Patriots.  They have one of the best kickers in the league, which has been a big difference for them.

While the Jets are pretty healthy right now, the Texans have major injury concerns especially on offense.  They were already without Nico Collins, and now they are going to be without Stephon Diggs who suffered a torn ACL against the Colts last week.  Those two have combined for 79 receptions for 1,063 yards and 6 TD this season and both will be sorely missed.  Fellow WR Tank Dell isn't fully healthy either, and he is really their last proven weapon on the outside.

The Texans are 6-12 SU in games where Nico Collins has received one or fewer targets.  CJ Stroud has looked lost without him the last few weeks.  He is averaging just 187.7 passing yards per game in his last three games despite getting to face the Patriots, Colts and Packers.  Now he'll be up against one of the best pass defenses he has faced this season.

The Jets rank 4th in total defense at 286.9 yards per game, 2nd at 4.9 yards per play and 2nd against the pass allowing just 161.1 passing yards per game.  With a defense that elite, it just goes to show how unfortunate the Jets are to be 2-6 this season.  Their offense should be even better moving forward as they implement Devante Adams into the scheme.  

Aaron Rodgers just has too many weapons to be held down for too long.  I expect him and the Jets to get right this week.  Their best performance of the season also came on Thursday Night Football with a 24-3 home win over the Patriots.  This will be the first Thursday Night game for the Texans under DeMeco Ryans, and coaches in this situation for the first time have notoriously struggled.  Plus it's a long trip from Houston to New York on the short week to boot.  

The Texans are 'fat and happy' right now after beating the Colts for a second time this season last week, giving them a commanding lead in the awful AFC South division.  The Jets are pissed off and will be playing with their hair on fire this week as they try and save their season.  Bet the Jets on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Giants/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on New York +6

The New York Giants have been a much better road team than a home team for years and that continues to be the case this season.  I don't know if they can't handle the pressure of the New York media, or they obviously don't enjoy getting boo'd by there home fans, but there's clearly something to it.

While the Giants are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at home this season, they are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS on the road.  They lost 21-18 at Washington as 1-point dogs only because they lost their FG kicker to an injury and had to go for 2 on all three of their touchdowns, failing each time.  They won 21-15 as 6.5-point dogs at Cleveland and they pulled the 29-20 upset as 7-point dogs at Seattle in their last road game.

Now we get the Giants in a similar price range here as 6-point road dogs at Pittsburgh.  While it's time to 'buy low' on the Giants off their embarrassing 28-3 home loss to the Eagles last week, it's also time to 'sell high' on the Steelers off their 37-15 win over the Jets on Sunday Night Football last week.

The Steelers go from being just 3.5-point favorites on the lookahead line to 6-point favorites now after what happened last week.  Everyone saw the Steelers crush the Jets on Sunday Night Football, so the betting public is hammering the Steelers hand over fist so far this week.

But that was a misleading 37-15 win over the Jets to say the least.  The Steelers only outgained the Jets 6.2 to 5.9 yards per play.  Aaron Rodgers had two costly interceptions, including a fluky one that bounce off of WR Garrett Wilson.  The Steelers got all the bounces in that game, and I don't believe that will happen again.

The Giants got great injury news with their two best pass rushers in NT Dexter Lawrence II and LB Brian Burns expected to play this week.  They are basically fully healthy on defense, and they are fully healthy on offense as well with the exception of LT Andrew Thomas.  Brian Daboll will scheme up a way to protect Daniel Jones from TJ Watt, plus Jones' mobility will be very useful.

The Steelers will be starting C Zach Frazier and his backup Nate Herbig.  Injuries to the center position are consistently not taken into account enough in terms of the line.  They are without NT Montravius Adams, NB Cameron Sutton and two backup LB's in Tyler Matakevich and Nick Herbig as well defensively.

Last week Russell Wilson was kept clean, but his immobility will be tested this week.  The Giants lead the NFL in sacks with 31 and it is the strength of their team.  Daniel Jones is 18-7 ATS in his last 25 starts as a road underdog.  Bet the Giants Monday.

20* Cowboys/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +5.5

I love the spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They will be pissed off from their 47-9 home loss to the Detroit Lions who were off a bye and out for revenge last time out.  Now it's the Cowboys who will be pissed off, out for revenge and off a bye this week.

The Cowboys have had this game circled all offseason after losing each of their last three meetings with the 49ers including two in the playoffs.  But now it's the Cowboys who will be a lot healthier coming out of their bye, while the 49ers have been ravaged by injuries.

This 49ers lost their best receiver in Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending injury last week in their 28-18 loss to the Chiefs.  Both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel were hurt against the Chiefs as well and both are highly questionable to play in this game.  They were already without WR JuJuan Jennings and remain without him this week.  It's safe to say Brock Purdy's options are receiver are limited, and it helps explain his recent struggles after throwing 3 INT's to the Chiefs last week.

The 49ers had to face the Chiefs off their bye and now they have to face the Cowboys off their bye.  Schedule makers have done them no favors.  The Cowboys have played their best football on the road this season, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in road games with a 33-17 win at Cleveland, a 20-15 win at New York and a 20-17 win at Pittsburgh.  That win at Pittsburgh two games ago looks even better now, and it also came on Sunday Night Football.  I expect them to give the 49ers a run for their money tonight.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Denver Broncos -9.5

I locked in the Broncos -9.5 as soon as I found out Bryce Young would be starting for the Panthers this week.  You can still find a -9.5 at Circa, but I would still play this up to -10.  I hate laying big numbers in the NFL, but this has blowout written all over it.

I was on the Broncos last week when they blasted the Saints 33-10 on Thursday night football. That one looked obvious with all the injuries to the Saints, but the line still only closed Broncos -2.5.  This one looks obvious as well, but sometimes the obvious wins in the NFL.

The Panthers are the dregs of the NFL.  They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS with all six losses coming by double-digits.  But that doesn't even begin to explain how bad this team has been.  They are 28th in scoring offense at 15.7 points per game and 32nd in scoring defense at 34.7 points per game.  They are getting outscored by 19 points per game on the season.

Their offense was at least respectable with Andy Dalton at quarterback, but it has no shot of succeeding with Bryce Young.  We saw that in the first two games of the season as the Panthers were outscored 73-13 with Young at quarterback.  Dalton suffered an injured thumb in a car accident this week and that's the only reason Young is starting.

But this Carolina defense is equally as bad as the offense.  The Panthers have allowed 34 or more points in four consecutive games and an average of 37 points per game.  It was really bad last week because the Commanders kept piling on the points with Marcus Mariota at quarterback once Jayden Daniels left with an injury.

The amount of players lost to injury on this Carolina defense is like nothing I've ever seen before in the NFL.  They have 8 players on IR, 2 players out, and another 7 players questionable.  That's 17 defenders on the injury report with 10 of them for sure out.  It's easy to see why this Carolina defense has been one of the worst we've ever seen.

Bo Nix has been at his best this season when the ground game is working and he can use his mobility on play-action.  The Broncos rushed for 225 yards on the Saints last week, and they are going to get 200-plus against the Panthers this week as well so they should be able to continue piling on the points in the 2H.  Carolina ranks dead last against the run allowing 162.1 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.

While Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, Denver has one of the best.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 15.1 points per game, 3rd in total defense allowing 282.4 yards per game and 1st allowing 4.7 yards per play.  They also get Patrick Surtain II back from a concussion this week, and he is arguably the top corner in the entire NFL.  Carolina will be missing WR Diontae Johnson, WR Adam Thielen and RB Jonathan Brooks on offense due to injury.

Denver also has the rest advantage after playing last Thursday, so they should be fresh and ready to go.  I don't foresee them having a letdown this week, which is what it would take for them to not win by double-digits.  Even then it still might not be enough.  The Panthers are hot garbage with Bryce Young at quarterback.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* Bills/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 47

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER ticket between the Bills and Seahawks Sunday afternoon.  There is a 99% chance of rain with 17 MPH sustained winds in Seattle and gusts up to 35 MPH.  Points are going to be very hard to come by for these two teams.

The Bills have one of the best defenses in the NFL ranking 7th in scoring defense allowing 19.4 points per game.  Their job is going to be much easier this week not having to deal with Seattle's best weapon in DK Metcalf, who suffered a knee injury against the Falcons last week and is doubtful to play this week.  Seattle also has a banged-up offensive line and one of the worst units in the NFL.

What makes me really like this UNDER is the improvement of this Seattle defensive under head coach Mike McDonald, the former Ravens' defensive coordinator.  There were a banged up unit for much of the season, but they are now as healthy as they have been basically all season.  CB Riq Woolen makes his return this week, and CB Tre Brown is trending toward playing as well.  They traded for LB Ernest Jones IV last week as well.

We saw the Seahawks come up big in limiting the Falcons to 14 points last week indoors.  They forced three turnovers and they make Kirk Cousins look very average as he had one of his worst games of the season after previously lighting it up for multiple weeks.  McDonald will come up with the proper game plan to slow down Josh Allen, who had his worst game of the season scoring just 10 points against Baltimore earlier this season, which is a amateur version of McDonald's scheme.

This total is simply too high for this forecast and these two average offenses up against these two improving defenses.  This has all the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Packers OVER 48.5

The Green Bay Packers have taken off offensively since Jordan Love returned to the lineup.  They rank 7th in the NFL in scoring at 26.6 points per game, 6th in total offense at 383.1 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense right now.

The Packers should name their number against an awful Jacksonville defense that ranks 30th in scoring at 27.7 points per game, 27th in total defense at 376.4 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play.  The Jaguars have been going heavy man-to-man defense this season and they just don't have the right pieces.  Love is going to torch their man-to-man scheme with all of his weapons.

Jacksonville has been respectable on offense this season ranking 13th at 5.8 yards per play and 16th at 325.9 yards per game.  But they haven't been fully healthy until now as they have both TE Evan Engram and WR Gabe Davis back.  They combine with rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and WR Christian Kirk to form one of the best set of weapons in the entire NFL.

The Jaguars are going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because the Packers are going to get their points.  Green Bay could be without two starters in LB Quay Walker (concussion) and DT Devonte Wyatt (ankle), who are both questionable.  Either way, conditions are perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no run, and I think that's precisely what we get.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cardinals/Dolphins OVER 45.5

This Miami offense has been atrocious with backup QB's Huntley, Thompson and Boyle trying to fill the massive shoes left by Tua Tagovailoa.  But now Tagovailoa returns to what is a fully healthy Miami offense this week, and the Dolphins are now primed for their best offensive performance of the season.

This total is suppressed due to the Dolphins going under the total in five of their six games this season.  To that point, the total is also suppressed due to the Cardinals going 2-0-1 to the under in their last three games as well.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER.

The Dolphins will have their best offensive output of the season against an Arizona defense that ranks 25th in scoring at 25.4 points per game, 28th in total defense at 376.4 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They just lost their best pass-rusher to injury last week, have four defensive linemen on IR now, plus DT Ray Lopez has been ruled out.  The Dolphins will win the battle at the line of scrimmage, and  starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting is out as well.

I don't think this Miami defense is as good as the numbers show.  The Dolphins have benefited from getting to face Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett and Anthony Richardson in their last three games.  This is a big step up in class for them having to face the electric Kyler Murray and a very healthy Arizona offense.  The Cardinals rank 11th in the NFL averaging 6.0 yards per play.  Plus, the Dolphins suffered a blow in practice this week when starting DE Zach Sieler suffered a fractured orbital bone and may need surgery.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +6.5

The Indianapolis Colts have quietly gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS this season as the best covering team in the NFL.  All three of their losses came by 6 points or less, and all four of their wins came by 6 points or less as well.  They just have a knack for playing in close games.

The same can be said for the Houston Texans, who are 5-2 SU this season with five of their seven games being decided by 6 points or less.  They were blown out 34-7 at Minnesota and the blew out New England 41-21 in Drake Maye's first career start.

The Colts have played this well despite being one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  But they are now about as healthy as they have been all season, and they get two of their best players back from injury this week.  RB Jonathan Taylor is back on offense while DT DeForest Buckner returns from IR.  Those two are huge for this team.

Speaking of injury-ravaged, the Texans are without two key defensive starters in LB Azeez Al-Shaiir and S Jimmie Ward, plus LB Henry To'oTo'o is questionable after missing last week.  But the biggest blow is on offense, where top receiver Nico Collins remains out.

Collins is far and away CJ Stroud's favorite target, and their offensive success has been night and day with him on or off the field in Stroud's career.  In fact, the Texans are just 5-12 SU in their 17 games in which Collins has received one target or fewer.  Stroud looked lost without him last week, throwing for just 86 yards on 21 attempts against the Packers.  The Texans were +3 in turnovers and still lost that game 24-22 to the Packers.

The Colts want revenge not only from their 23-19 loss to the Texans in Week 18 last year that kept them out of the playoffs, but also their 29-27 loss to the Texans in Week 1 this season.  This has been a closely-contested series that the Colts have actually dominated.

In fact, the Colts haven't lost by more than 6 points to the Texans in any of their last 25 meetings! That makes for a 25-0 system backing the Colts pertaining to this 6.5-point spread.  This one will go down to the wire as well, and Indianapolis is a very live underdog this week.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ravens/Browns OVER 44.5

The Baltimore Ravens have the best offense in the NFL and it's not even closer.  They rank 1st in total offense at 461.4 yards per game and 1st at 7.4 yards per play.  They are also 2nd in scoring at 31.1 points per game.  They are going to get their 30-plus, and the Browns are primed for their best offensive performance of the season to keep up with the Ravens in a shootout Sunday.

The Browns have been held to 20 points or fewer in every game this season.  Just when their offensive line started to get healthy, QB Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending injury last week.  Then QB Dorian-Thompson Robinson got hurt, and third-string QB Jameis Winston led them on a TD drive to cut the deficit to 21-14 against the Bengals.

The fans and the media have been calling for Winston all season.  We saw what the Browns did last year with Joe Flacco earning Comeback Player of the Year by leading them to the playoffs after Watson got hurt.  I think Winston is capable of following in Flacco's footsteps.  He has a lot of boom or bust to him like Flacco, and he is great at stretching the field and testing all areas of an opposing defense.

This Cleveland offense has only one way to go which is up.  It looks like they should have four of their five starting offensive linemen healthy, which hasn't been the case all season.  RB Nick Chubb just returned from injury last week and should get more reps this week.

Defensive injuries are a big part of the story here too.  The Browns will be wihtout MLB Jordan Hicks.  The Ravens are likely to be without their best CB Marlon Humphrey, who suffered a knee injury last week against the Bucs.  Fellow starting CB Nate Wiggins is questionable, as is his backup in CB Jalyn Armous-Davis.  DT Travis Jones is questionable as well.

The biggest weakness of this entire Baltimore defense is their secondary as you can pass on them, which makes this a great matchup for Winston and company.  The Ravens rank dead last in the NFL allowing 287.1 passing yards per game and 28th at 7.5 yards per pass attempt.  They are going to be even worse without Humphrey this week.  

The OVER is 6-1 in Ravens seven games this season with 45 or more combined points in all seven, making for a 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 44.5-point total.  This total is too low for a game involving the Ravens.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +3.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Rams after opening 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against the toughest schedule in the NFL through the first five weeks.  Their four losses came to the Lions, Cardinals, Bears and Packers while their lone win actually came against the 49ers.  They played three of their first five games on the road, and three of the four losses they had a chance to win in the final seconds in one-score games.

In their two home games they were impressive, upsetting the 49ers 27-24 and barely coming up short against the Packers, 24-19.  They outgained the Packers 370 to 328 in their final game going into their bye.  This despite being extremely banged up on offense and defense.

The Rams received a much-needed bye week and came out of it healthier.  They beat the Raiders 20-15 last week off their bye holding the Raiders to five field goals.  Now more reinforcements are on the way with Cooper Kupp expected to return this week, and the offense will be more dynamic this week than is has been at any other point this season with the exception of Week 1 when they took the Lions to OT on the road.

The Rams now sit at 2-4 on the season, but just 1.5 games back in their division.  They know a win over the Vikings Thursday night would get them right back in it, and I expect them to win this game outright.

This is a tough spot for the Vikings.  They are coming off a 31-29 home loss to the Detroit Lions, which are their biggest contenders to win the division.  It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face the Rams on a short week, especially when they have to travel all the way to Los Angeles in between.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  Plus, teams after facing the physical Lions are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season and failing to cover by an average of 25.9 points per game.  This trend has been great over the last couple seasons as well.

Of course, it's also time to 'sell high' on the Vikings, who are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season.  They have benefited from only having to play two true road games this season, and one came against the Giants and the other was against the Packers with Jordan Love hobbled in his first game back from injury.  Love gifted the Vikings 3 interceptions and spotted them a 28-0 lead, only to see the Packers come back and lose by only 2.  I would argue this will be Minnesota's toughest road test of the season with the Rams getting healthier, and the Vikings on a short week with travel.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

20* Chargers/Cardinals Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Chargers just had a bye two weeks ago and got a ton of players back from injury.  They promptly jumped out to a 23-0 lead over the Broncos in their first game back from the bye and coasted to victory in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  Now they remain fresh, and we are getting them at a great value Monday night as only 2.5-point favorites over the dreadful Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals are a tired team that looks lost right now.  They'll be playing for a 7th consecutive week and have been through the gauntlet.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall and their lone win over the 49ers was an absolute fluke.  They came back from a 23-10 halftime deficit as the 49ers continually shot themselves in the foot in the 2nd half.

The three losses came 34-13 at Green Bay, 42-14 at home to Washington and 20-13 at home to the Lions.  Kyler Murray and the offense are stuck in the mud, and the defense is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Cardinals rank 27th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game allowed, 27th in total defense at 373.3 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.

The Chargers have a massive edge defensively as they rank 1st in scoring defense at 13.2 points per game and 6th in total defense at 289.2 yards per game.  Jim Harbaugh always has a good defense everywhere he goes, and he has turned this Chargers stop unit into one of the league's best in his first season.

The offense got a healthy Justin Herbert and both his starting tackles back last week and it made a big difference.  Los Angeles is a run-heavy offense that ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing.  That makes this a bad matchup for Arizona, which ranks 29th against the run allowing 153.0 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.  Things will come easy for the Chargers offensively, and nothing will come easy for Kyler Murray and company.

The Cardinals are really banged up with four starters questionable on offense and four starters questionable on defense, plus another five defenders on IR.  The Chargers will wear the Cardinals down with their rushing attack and be able to get the necessary first downs late in this game to preserve the win and cover.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* Ravens/Bucs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48

Two of the best offenses in the NFL square off Monday night against two defenses that are vulnerable to their opponents' strengths.  This has the makings of a shootout, especially with the forecast perfect for a shootout with no rain, less than 10 MPH winds and temps in the 70's Monday night in Tampa Bay.

The Ravens have the best offense in the NFL rank 1st in total offense at 453.7 yards per game and 1st at 7.1 yards per play.  The Buccaneers rank 4th in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play.  Both teams are almost fully healthy on offense right now as well.

The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing at 205.3 yards per game and 5.9 per carry.  The Bucs rank 24th in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per carry.  The Ravens are going to be able to get whatever they want against this banged-up Tampa Bay defense, which allows 23.5 points per game and hasn't faced an offense nearly as potent as Baltimore yet.  The Bucs allowed 27 points to the Saints and all their backups last week after allowing 36 points and 550 total yards to the Falcons the week prior.

No question the Ravens have a solid defense, but they are just 23rd in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play.  Where they have been particularly poor is against the pass, allowing 7.5 yards per attempt which ranks 26th in the NFL.  That makes this a great matchup for Baker Mayfield and this pass-heavy Tampa Bay offense.

The OVER is 5-1 in all Baltimore games this season with 45 or more combined points in all six, including 49 or more in four of the last five.  The OVER is 3-0 in Bucs last three games overall with 49, 66 and 78 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Raiders/Rams Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5

I grabbed the Rams -5 on Sunday night loving the spot for this team and anticipating they would get bet.  Well, as of this writing they are up to 7-point favorites now against the Raiders, and I obviously agree with the move.  This one has blowout written all over it.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Rams after opening 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against the toughest schedule in the NFL through the first five weeks.  Their four losses came to the Lions, Cardinals, Bears and Packers while their lone win actually came against the 49ers.  They played three of their first five games on the road, and three of the four losses they had a chance to win in the final seconds in one-score games.

In their two home games they were impressive, upsetting the 49ers 27-24 and barely coming up short against the Packers, 24-19.  They outgained the Packers 370 to 328 in their final game going into their bye.  This despite being extremely banged up on offense and defense.

Reinforcements are on the way now as the Rams had a much-needed bye last week, and they will be looking at this as a brand new season moving forward.  Cooper Kupp returned to practice this week and could return.  RT Joe Notebloom is off IR and back to practice and could return.  The defense is almost fully healthy now and should be one of the most improved units in the league the rest of the way.

But this is as much a fade of the Raiders as it is a play on the Rams.  The Raiders are lost right now.  They have gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with a 19-point home loss to the Steelers, a 16-point road loss to the Broncos and a 14-point home loss to the Panthers.  Their lone win came at home against the hapless Browns during this stretch.

The Raiders just traded WR Devante Adams to the Jets earlier this week, signaling that their season is over.  DE Maxx Crosby has yet to practice this week and may not play, especially since he is so close to Adams.  RB Zamir White, WR Jakobi Meyers and RG Dylan Parham are all questionable on offense.  DT John Jenkins, LB Tommy Eichenberg and CB Jack Jones are all questionable along with Crosby.  Five other defenders are already on IR.  They have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL and now limited weapons outside TE Brock Bowers to get the ball to.

Los Angeles RB Kyren Williams should have a huge day against a Raiders defense that allows 140.3 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry to take some pressure off of Stafford, and the Rams are at their best when they can run the football.  I obviously got a good line here at -5, but would still play the Rams up to -7 and throw them in some teasers at that number.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Panthers/Commanders OVER 51

Both the Panthers and Commanders are dead nuts OVER teams.  Carolina is 4-0 OVER since Andy Dalton took over at quarterback with 58 or more combined points in three of them.  Washington is 5-1 OVER in all games this season with 53 or more combined points in four of them.

Washington ranks 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 29.7 points per game, 5th in total offense at 378 yards per game and 5th at 6.4 yards per play.  Jayden Daniels is the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year for good reason as he is already one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  He is completing 75.3% of his passes and has accounted for 10 total touchdowns.

Daniels and company should score at will against a Carolina defense that may be the worst in the entire NFL.  The Panthers rank dead last in scoring defense allowing 33.8 points per game this season.  They have allowed 34, 36 and 38 points the last three weeks.

Injuries to their defense is a big reason why as they have 10 defenders on IR and another 7 listed as questionable heading into this game.  They have been decimated on that side of the ball.  They will be facing a Washington offense that is basically fully healthy and should get RB Brian Robinson back this week.

Andy Dalton has at least made this Carolina offense respectable averaging 22.5 points per game in his four starts.  He'll be up against a poor Washington defense that ranks 30th in the NFL allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Commanders are also 29th allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season, so the Panthers should have plenty of success on the ground behind Chubba Hubbard.

Injuries are starting to pile up for the Commanders defensively as they just lost their best defensive lineman in Jonathan Allen to a season-ending injury in allowing 30 points and 484 total yards to the Ravens last week.  Another five defensive starters are listed as questionable heading into this one as well.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Sunday afternoon with temps in the 70's and, 3 MPH winds and zero chance of rain.  I've been riding OVERS in Carolina and Washington games in recent weeks, and now they meet up and I'm definitely not passing up this opportunity.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Seahawks/Falcons OVER 48.5

The Seattle Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team right now with a really banged up defense missing several key players on their defensive line and in the secondary.  But their offense is good enough to go score for score with almost anyone, and they're going to have to try and do that in the dome in Atlanta Sunday.

The Seahawks allowed 36 points and 483 total yards to the 49ers last week, 29 points and 420 total yards to a Giants team that was without two of its best weapons in WR Nabers and RB Singletary two weeks ago, and 42 points to the Lions three weeks ago.

It won't get any easier for this Seattle defense going up against an Atlanta offense that is fully healthy and hitting on all cylinders right now.  The Falcons put up 36 points and 550 total yards on the Bucs two weeks ago and 38 points and 423 total yards on the Panthers last week.  Kirk Cousins is showing he's still got it, and he has ample weapons to get the ball to.

Atlanta ranks 31st in the league in pass rush and just cannot get to opposing quarterbacks.  Despite a shaky offensive line, Geno Smith is going to have all day to pick apart their defense.  The Falcons have allowed 20-plus points in five consecutive games, including 30 to the Bucs in their last home game.  Geno Smith has his full compliment of weapons healthy right now as their offense is very healthy as a whole.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 50 or more combined points in five of those six.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +4.5

I love the spot for the Miami Dolphins this week.  The Dolphins are coming off their bye week and they are about as healthy as they have been all season now with the exception of QB Tua Tagovailoa.

But Tyler Huntley was brought in to replace him and started the same week he was brought in in a loss to the Titans.  He was much better in a 15-10 win at New England in his second start, and now with two full weeks to get accustomed to Mike McDaniels' offense, he is primed for his best game yet.

That's especially the case considering he takes a big step down in class here against a Colts defense that is one of the worst in the NFL, plus one that is dealing with a ton of injuries.  The Colts rank 30th in total defense at 389.5 yards per game allowed.  They are 31st against the run allowing 155.2 rushing yards per game.  The Dolphins will go with a run-heavy approach, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them rush for 200-plus yards in this one with all their weapons in Achane and Mostert healthy, plus Huntley being a dual-threat.

What has gone unnoticed for the Dolphins is just how good their defense has been this season.  They rank 5th in total defense allowing just 285.4 yards per game.  The Colts are making a mistake going from Joe Flacco back to Anthony Richardson at quarterback.  They have played their best this season with Flacco, and Richardson is too much boom or bust with his inaccuracy as a passer.  Four key players on offense are all questionable in RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Josh Downs, WR Alec Pierce and C Ryan Kelly.

The Dolphins were just 2.5-point home favorites over the Titans two games ago.  The Colts were just 2.5-point road dogs to the Titans last week.  As you can see, there's clearly value in getting the Dolphins at +4.5 this week based on those recent lines against a common opponent.  This line should be much closer to PK.  The Colts are a tired team playing six straight one-score games to open the season, while the Dolphins are fresh and off a bye.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay Packers -2.5

The Green Bay Packers are hitting on all cylinders offensively with Jordan Love back fully healthy and with his full compliment of weapons.  The Packers have five offensive players on the injury report but all five practiced on Thursday, which is a good sign they are good to go.

The Packers scored 29 points on the Vikings, 24 on the Rams and then 34 on the Cardinals last week in Love's three starts back from injury.  They racked up 437 total yards on the Cardinals last week.  Love threw for 258 yards and 4 touchdowns.  This is one of the best offenses in the league when fully healthy.

The Texans allowed Drake Maye to throw 3 touchdown passes on them in his first career start last week.  Their defense is extremely banged up right now with five starters missing practice both Wednesday and Thursday in DT Fatukasi, LB Al-Shaair, LB To'oto'o, S Ward and CB Lassiter.  Plus, DT Mario Edwards was just suspended and will miss this game.  The Packers should be able to name their number Sunday.

The Texans are overvalued due to their 5-1 start this season.  They could easily be 3-3 instead or worse.  Four of their five wins came by 6 points or fewer and a total of 15 points.  The lone blowout came against arguably the worst team in the NFL in the Patriots last week.

We saw what happened when the Texans hit the road and took a step up in class earlier this season in their lone loss.  They fell 34-7 to Minnesota, which is the same Minnesota team Green Bay took to the wire a few weeks ago in a 31-29 defeat.  Keep in mind the Texans actually had Nico Collins in that game, and now he is out with injury.  He is easily their best receiver with 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD despite missing one game.  They need him to beat a team like Green Bay, and couple that with all their defensive injuries, and I give them little chance of keeping this game competitive.

The Packers have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL and it's worth a full 3 points in my opinion.  Considering the Packers are the better, healthier team right now, they should be more than 2.5-point favorites at home this week.  Bet the Packers Sunday.