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5* NO BRAINER on Texans +3

The Houston Texans are the hottest team in football right now.

They are riding a 10-game win streak and just pulverized the Steelers 30-6 in the opening round.

This defense is the real deal and finished the regular season ranked first in the NFL in total yards allowed.

They bring a ferocious pass rush with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson that will be in Drake Maye's face all afternoon.

New England relies heavily on Maye’s arm, but the young quarterback struggled with efficiency in his Wild Card win over the Chargers.

The Patriots managed only 16 points last week and now face a much more disciplined Houston secondary that creates takeaways.

Houston has major injury concerns at receiver with Nico Collins and Justin Watson both in concussion protocol following Monday’s game.

Even if they are thin on the outside, C.J. Stroud has proven he can win with whoever is on the field by protecting the football and hitting his check-downs.

The Patriots' defense is elite, but they may be without star corner Christian Gonzalez who is also battling a concussion.

If Gonzalez is sidelined, Stroud will have a much easier time distributing the ball to playmakers like Christian Kirk.

New England has a slight rest advantage after playing on Sunday, but Houston’s defensive momentum is too strong to ignore.

The Texans already went into Gillette Stadium last season and walked away with a dominant 20-point victory.

They match up perfectly against a New England offensive line that has been shuffled all year due to various injuries.

Getting a full field goal with the league's top-ranked defense and a red-hot quarterback is the sharp side of this number.

Expect a low-scoring, physical battle where the Texans have a great chance to pull the outright upset.

I like the Texans +3.0.

5* NO BRAINER on Bills/Broncos: under 47

This total is too high for a high-stakes playoff game in the freezing Denver air.
The forecast is calling for temperatures in the low 30s with wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour at Mile High.

Buffalo is walking into a trap as the "walking wounded" after a brutal Wild Card win just six days ago.
They are dealing with a decimated receiving corps that will struggle to move the chains in these conditions.

Gabe Davis is out for the season with a torn ACL and Josh Palmer is already on injured reserve.
That leaves the Bills with very few reliable targets to test a rested Denver secondary.

Quarterback Josh Allen is playing through finger and ankle injuries and will be less than 100 percent.
He’s facing a short-week turnaround and the physical toll of playing at altitude while already banged up.

The Broncos are the top seed for a reason and they are coming off a full week of rest.
They are getting key linebacker Dre Greenlaw back to anchor a defense that hasn't allowed more than 20 points at home in over a month.

Denver’s pass rush is healthy and will have a massive advantage against a tired Buffalo offensive line.
Expect Sean Payton to use a conservative, run-heavy game plan to protect the ball and kill the clock.

The thin air in Denver wears down visiting teams, especially when they are coming off a physical four-quarter battle.
Buffalo has shifted to a ball-control style lately that focuses on the ground game and shorter possessions.

When the temperature drops below 40 degrees in Denver, the under is a very strong play.
Both teams will prioritize field position and punting over taking big risks in the wind.

Neither side wants to turn the ball over in a game where points will be extremely hard to come by.
This has the look of a low-scoring defensive battle that stays well under the number.

Bet Under 47.0 (-115).

5* NO BRAINER on Texans -3

The public sees a tough road playoff game for a young Texans team. We see a mismatch brewing. Houston's defense travels, and Pittsburgh's offense sputters.

The value is clearly on the Texans -3.0 (-110). Here's why:

1.  Defensive Dominance: The Texans finished the regular season as the NFL's stingiest defense, allowing a league-low 277.2 yards per game. They also ranked second in scoring defense, surrendering just 17.4 points per game. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, ranked 26th in total defense. This disparity is massive, especially in a playoff setting.

2.  Texans' Momentum: Houston enters the playoffs riding a nine-game winning streak. During that streak, they showcased their defensive prowess, not allowing an opposing team to score more than 21 points in seven consecutive games. This indicates a team peaking at the right time. C.J. Stroud is also heating up, passing for 3,041 yards with 19 touchdowns during the regular season.

3.  Steelers' Offensive Woes: While the Steelers clinched the AFC North with a 10-7 record, their offense has been inconsistent. Aaron Rodgers, though experienced, is not the elite player he once was, relying heavily on short passes. Pittsburgh's offense has shown a tendency to start slow, a dangerous habit in the playoffs.

4.  Situational Advantage: The Texans' defense is particularly strong in the fourth quarter, allowing the second-fewest points in the league during that period. This ability to close out games is crucial in a tight playoff matchup, especially against a Steelers team that has relied on late-game comebacks. The Steelers have also struggled in the playoffs recently, losing six straight playoff games. They were also outscored 63-0 in the first quarters of those games.

Houston's defense is playing at an elite level, and their offense is finding its rhythm. The Steelers, while resilient, lack the firepower to consistently move the ball against this Texans defense. While the Steelers are 5-3 all-time against the Texans, and 3-1 at home, this is their first ever playoff matchup. The Texans are also 9-8 against the spread this season.

Bet the Texans -3.0 (-110)

5* NO BRAINER on Jaguars +1½

Buffalo is limping into the postseason with a defense held together by medical tape.

The Bills have already ruled out three key defensive starters for this Wild Card showdown.

Linebacker Terrel Bernard, cornerback Maxwell Hairston, and safety Damar Hamlin are all on the sidelines.

That is a massive hole in the middle of a secondary that has to deal with a red-hot Trevor Lawrence.

Lawrence just put up 38 touchdowns and over 4,300 yards while leading Jacksonville to a 13-win season.

The Jaguars have a huge health advantage and they are playing at home where they have been dominant all year.

Buffalo’s offensive concerns are just as bad because Josh Allen is not moving at 100 percent.

He’s been dealing with a nagging foot injury for a month that has clearly hindered his mobility and downfield accuracy.

The Bills only managed 12 points against a tough Eagles defense recently and they look vulnerable.

Buffalo will try to lean on James Cook and the ground game, but that plays right into Jacksonville's hands.

The Jaguars possess the best run defense in the conference and haven't allowed a 75-yard rusher all season.

If you take away the Bills' run game and force a hobbled Allen to win from the pocket, Jacksonville wins this outright.

The Jags are the more complete team and the market is still giving them points at home.

Jacksonville has won both historical playoff meetings against Buffalo and that trend continues here.

I like the Jaguars +1.5.

5* NO BRAINER on Packers/Bears: under 46½

The Packers and Bears, two of the NFL's oldest rivals, face off in a Wild Card matchup, but the smart money is on a low-scoring affair. The value lies in betting the Under 46.5 (-110) because both teams have demonstrated a propensity for tight, defensive battles, and the high stakes of a playoff game will only amplify this tendency.

Here's why the Under is the sharp play:

1. **Recent History:** The last time these two teams played, just thirteen days ago, the final score was 22-16 in overtime, totaling only 38 points. Even though the teams split their regular-season series, this recent result suggests a lower-scoring trend.
2. **Packers' Offensive Struggles:** Green Bay's offense has sputtered recently, with the team losing their last four games. They only managed 3 points in their final regular season game against the Vikings.
3. **Bears' Defensive Prowess:** Chicago's defense has been a force this season, leading to their first NFC North title since 2018. They excel at takeaways, leading the league with 32, which can disrupt the Packers' offensive flow and limit scoring opportunities.
4. **Playoff Intensity:** With a trip to the divisional round on the line, expect both teams to prioritize ball control and minimize mistakes. The Packers are the seventh seed with a 9-7-1 record, while the Bears are the second seed with an 11-6 record. The heightened pressure of a playoff atmosphere typically leads to more conservative play-calling and fewer risks, favoring the Under.

The Packers lead the all-time series 109-97-6, but the Bears won their most recent contest. This rivalry is always intense, and with the Bears clinching their first division title in seven years, they'll be hungry to defend their home turf. The Packers are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 road games against the Bears, who are 10-5 ATS in their past 15 games overall. This game will be a hard-fought, physical battle, and points will be at a premium.

Bet the Under 46.5 (-110).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Cardinals/Rams: over 46

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Rams -7

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on 49ers -1

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Falcons +8½

The edge here is a massive mismatch between the Rams' protection and the Falcons' pass rush. Atlanta enters this Week 17 matchup ranked 2nd in the NFL in total sacks. They face a Rams offensive line that just surrendered 37 points and a loss to Seattle. Matthew Stafford is having an MVP-caliber season with 40 touchdowns, but he remains a stationary target. If the Falcons can collapse the pocket with four rushers, they keep this within one score.

Schematic familiarity is the biggest hidden angle. Falcons head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson both came directly from Sean McVay’s staff. They know the Rams' offensive signals and protection adjustments better than any coaching staff in the league. This is a classic "revenge" spot for Morris. He has the blueprint to frustrate Stafford's timing with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

The Rams are the ultimate "public" team this season. They lead the NFL in scoring at 30.5 points per game and hold a league-best 11-4 record against the spread. That success has inflated this line past the key number of 7. Los Angeles just lost a heartbreaker despite gaining 581 yards of offense. Their defense is regressing at the wrong time, and the market is overvaluing their ability to pull away from disciplined teams.

Atlanta is playing its best football of the year late. They are 2-0 straight up in their last two games, including a 26-19 win at Arizona. While the Falcons are officially eliminated from the playoffs, they are 2-0 ATS in their last two. Cornerback A.J. Terrell is expected to play through a shoulder injury, and the return of Clark Phillips III from injured reserve stabilizes a secondary facing a high-volume passing attack.

Take the points with a live underdog that knows the opponent’s playbook.

I like the Falcons +8.5.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Eagles/Bills: under 43½

Philadelphia’s defense is the primary factor in this matchup. They currently rank 3rd in the league in scoring defense, allowing only 19.3 points per game. This unit is surging at the right time. Last week, they held the Raiders to a season-low 75 total yards in a dominant shutout win. They have allowed more than 20 points just once in their last three contests. 

Buffalo enters this game with an 11-4 record but has seen their scoring efficiency dip recently. They are coming off a tight 23-20 victory over Cleveland where the offense struggled to find a rhythm. While Josh Allen has 3,406 passing yards on the season, the Bills have leaned heavily on the ground game lately. James Cook leads the league with ,1532 rushing yards. Expect Buffalo to prioritize ball control to keep the Eagles’ offense off the field.

The Eagles’ offensive profile supports a lower total as well. They rank 16th in scoring at 23.3 points per game and rely on Saquon Barkley to chew up clock. Barkley has 1,072 rushing yards this season. With both teams featuring top-tier run games, the clock will move fast with fewer possessions.

Weather conditions in Philadelphia will suppress scoring. The Sunday forecast calls for a high of 44 degrees with rain and drizzle throughout the afternoon. Wet conditions and cold air generally favor the defense and the running game over high-flying passing attacks.

Both teams have already clinched playoff berths and are now fighting for seeding. This creates a postseason atmosphere where coaches tend to be more conservative. Expect a physical, field-position battle rather than a shootout. The Eagles' elite defense and the projected weather make the under the sharp play.

I like the Under 43.5.

5* NO BRAINER of the Month on Jaguars -5½

Jacksonville is the clear powerhouse in the AFC South this season. They sit at 11-4 and just clinched a playoff berth after a dominant 34-20 win over the Broncos. The Jaguars feature a balanced attack that ranks 7th in scoring offense and 10th in scoring defense. They have the momentum and the health to pull away late in December.

The Colts are in a total free-fall. After an 8-2 start, Indianapolis has lost five consecutive games. The injury report is a disaster at the most important position. Starting quarterback Daniel Jones is out for the season with an Achilles tear. Backup Anthony Richardson is also on IR. The Colts have dug deep into the depth chart to find Phillip Rivers to take snaps against a top-tier defense.

Rest and travel give the Jaguars a massive edge here. Jacksonville played on Sunday and stayed home. The Colts are coming off a brutal Monday night loss to San Francisco where they surrendered 48 points. Traveling on a short week with a broken roster is a nightmare scenario for any team.

The statistical mismatch is glaring. Jacksonville allows only 20.8 points per game. Trevor Lawrence is playing clean football with 3,210 passing yards on the year. Travis Etienne is nearly at the 1,000-yard mark and should feast on a tired Colts front that just got torched.

The wheels have completely fallen off in Indianapolis. They have no reliable answer under center and a defense that has given up. Jacksonville is still fighting for a top seed in the AFC and won't take their foot off the gas. Expect the Jaguars to control the clock and win this comfortably by a touchdown or more.

I like the Jaguars

5* NO BRAINER on Chargers -1

Jim Harbaugh has the Bolts at 11-4 and playing the most disciplined football in the AFC. The edge here is simple: ball security and clock control. Los Angeles leads the NFL in time of possession, averaging over 33 minutes per game. They sit on the ball and suffocate opponents.

The turnover margin is a massive mismatch. The Chargers are +15 on the year, ranking 2nd in the league. Houston is just +3. Justin Herbert is coming off a clean 300-yard performance and has fully participated in practice this week. He is 41-12-2 ATS in his career when his defense holds opponents under 24 points.

Houston’s defense is ranked #1 in points allowed, but the offense is hitting a wall. They averaged a lackluster 4.4 yards per play last week. The Texans rank 30th in rush EPA and 31st in rushing success rate. With Joe Mixon sidelined, they cannot run the ball effectively. 

The Chargers are undefeated this season when they keep opponents under 100 yards on the ground. Houston has struggled to reach that mark consistently since Week 8. Los Angeles also ranks 3rd in the league in defensive interceptions, which spells trouble for a stagnant Texans passing game.

Expect the Chargers to win the trench battle and the turnover flip. Houston is on a seven-game win streak, but they are winning ugly and living on the edge. Harbaugh’s squad is more efficient and possesses the better quarterback.

Bet the Chargers

5* NO BRAINER on Lions

Lions are in a prime revenge spot. They lost the Week 9 meeting to Minnesota as nearly double-digit favorites. Now they are back home after two straight losses. This offense is still elite, ranking second in the league in scoring at 30.1 points per game.

The Vikings are in a massive hole at quarterback. J.J. McCarthy is out with a hairline fracture in his throwing hand. That leaves undrafted rookie Max Brosmer to start in a hostile environment. Brosmer struggled in his only other start this season, throwing four interceptions in a shutout loss to Seattle.

The mismatch is the scoring production. Detroit ranks third in total offense while the Vikings sit at 28th. Minnesota’s defense is top-five, but they cannot stay on the field forever. The Lions have hit the over in 10 of 15 games because they move the ball with ease.

Jared Goff dominates this divisional matchup. He is 8-1 against the spread vs. the Vikings since joining Detroit. Dan Campbell is also 15-5 against the spread after his team rushes for under 100 yards in the previous week. The Lions managed just 15 rushing yards last Sunday and will look to ground and pound with Jahmyr Gibbs today.

Lay the short number. The Vikings’ offense is broken and won't score enough to keep this close.

I like the Lions

5* NO BRAINER on 49ers -6

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Ravens -3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Bucs -3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Eagles -6

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Rams/Seahawks: under 44½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Dolphins/Steelers: under 42½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Bills PK

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Browns +7½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Falcons/Bucs: over 44½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Chargers +3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Ravens -5½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Seahawks -7

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cowboys +5½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Giants +7½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Texans/Colts: over 44

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Rams -10

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Bears/Eagles: over 44

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Bengals/Ravens: over 52½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Panthers +7

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Cowboys +4½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Jaguars -2½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Bills -3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cowboys/Raiders: under 50½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Rams -2½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Texans -7

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Jets/Patriots: under 46½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Eagles/Packers: over 44½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Seahawks: over 45½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Panthers -5

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Raiders +10½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals/Cowboys: over 54

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Giants +2½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Bears -2

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Ravens -7

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Commanders +10½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Packers/Steelers: over 44½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on 49ers +1½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Vikings +3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Seahawks -3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Saints/Bears: over 45

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Bears -4

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Jets +110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Steelers/Bengals: over 42½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Bears +5½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Chargers/Dolphins: under 44½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Panthers +3½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins +4½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Saints +3½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Eagles/Giants: under 42½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Chiefs -150

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Patriots +8½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Bengals +10½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Seahawks -142

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Saints +2½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Broncos +5½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins/Panthers: under 46½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Browns +4½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Rams -3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Jets/Dolphins: over 44½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Colts +3½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on 49ers -3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Eagles -3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Panthers/Patriots: under 43½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Vikings/Steelers: under 41½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Steelers +3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Seahawks +2½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Lions +5½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Jets/Bucs: under 45½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Browns +8½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Dolphins/Bills: over 48

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Chargers/Raiders: under 47

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Falcons +6

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Cardinals -6½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Rams/Titans: under 43

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Steelers -155

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Jaguars/Bengals: under 50

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Patriots +2½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Packers -3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Bears +115

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Ravens/Bills: under 52½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Texans/Rams: under 44½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Texans +3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Chargers +3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Eagles -6½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Chiefs/Eagles under

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Eagles

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Bills

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.