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4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Eagles +3 +104

I like the Eagles to go into Minnesota and come away with a win, making them an easy play at +3. I just think there's a lot more flaws with this Vikings team than people realize. They are 3-2, but their 3 wins are against the Falcons, Raiders and Giants. 

Kirk Cousin has not looked good outside of that game against a bad Giants defense. When this team has faced a good defense they have not done much. They had just 16 points against Green Bay and managed a mere 6 against the Bears. 

Eagles defense has been spotty, but most of their problems have come against the pass. In fact, they lead the league in run defense, giving up just 63 yards/game. If Minnesota can't run the ball they are in serious trouble. Wentz and the Eagles offense won't have to do much to get the win. Take Philadelphia! 

5* NFL - Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Redskins/Dolphins under 42 -104

I love the UNDER in Week 6's matchup between two of the worst teams in the league. You got the 0-5 Redskins facing off against the 0-4 Dolphins. While both of these defenses have given up a lot of points, these are two horrible offensive teams. 

Miami comes in averaging 6.5 ppg and 225 ypg. The Redskins aren't that much better at 14.6 ppg and 281 ypg. Key here is I think we get a big effort here defensively from both teams as both know this is going to be one of their rare opportunities for a win in 2019. I also think we get a big effort from the Dolphins coming off a bye and Washington should play harder than normal after watching their head coach get fired. 

UNDER is 31-16 in the Redskins last 47 games off a road loss by 10 or more and 8-1 in their last 9 when off a loss of 14 or more. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in the Dolphins last 7 off a loss by 14 or more. Take the UNDER! 

4* NFL - Browns/49ers MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Browns +4 -115

The Browns are definitely worth a look here getting more than a field goal against the 49ers. San Francisco is overvalued after their 3-0 start. 49ers are improved, but also haven't really been tested.

Their last two wins were against the Mason Rudolph led Steelers, which they were lucky to win, and the Bengals, who are now 0-5. Their 31-17 win over the Bucs in Week 1 looks decent, but they were actually outgained 295 to 256. Difference in the game was they had two interceptions returned for scores. 

Browns had that ugly 43-13 loss at home to the Titans and people were quick to jump off the bandwagon. They have won 2 of their last 3 since with the only loss to the Rams. They are coming off their best performance of the season, destroying the Ravens 40-25 in Baltimore. 

Browns have now covered 4 straight on the road and are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Cleveland! 

3* NFL -Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR  on Packers/Cowboys under 47 -110

Forget who will cover the spread, there's huge value with the UNDER in Sunday's NFC matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. 

Don't let the poor showing by Green Bay's defense in that Thursday Night Football loss to the Eagles. Just about every team struggles defensively when playing on just 3 days of rest. Prior to that this team had been outstanding on defense, holding each of their first 3 opponents to 16 or fewer points. 

Cowboys offense looked great in their first 3 games, scoring 30+, but then managed just 10 points at New Orleans last week. I think the Dallas offense was a bit of fools gold, as they had played 3 really bad defensive teams in the Giants, Redskins and Eagles. I think they have a tough time moving the ball in this game. 

Packers got Aaron Rodgers, but they have not looked great offensively early on. The only real positive was that TNF game against the Eagles, and it's even harder on the road team's defense in those weekday matchups. Cowboys defense has been rock-solid all season long. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bucs/Saints under 47 -110

The books have completely missed the mark here with the total. This is a different Saints team right now with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. They got to rely a lot more on the defense and hope the offense can do enough to win. Without the explosive plays on offense, there's just fewer possessions for scoring. 

Big key here is that New Orleans has the defense to carry the load, especially at home where they can feed off of that rowdy crowd. We are simply seeing a high number here because Tampa is off a game against the Rams where they put up 55 and allowed 40. Saints don't have anything close to the offense of LA and are a much stronger defensive team. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Bucs last 17 off a upset win as a dog by 14 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after giving up 30 or more. UNDER is also 7-2 in the Saints last 9 off a SU win and 9-2 in their last 11 vs another team from the NFC. Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bengals -3 -110

Cincinnati is worth a look here as a mere 3-point home favorite. Even though these are two bad teams, I see a lot of value with the Bengals only needing to win by a field goal. Cincinnati is 0-4, but they have also played a brutal schedule with 3 of their first 4 on the road. Two of those against 1-loss teams in the Seahawks and Bills, the other at Pittsburgh on MNF. The lone home game was against the 49ers, who are undefeated. 

Arizona is definitely not a team you want to be trusting on the road. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray is struggling. Cardinals have scored 20 or fewer in each of their last 3. They had 27 in the opener, but they were down 24-6 in the 4th quarter. Outside of a 10-minute window in that 4th quarter, the offense hasn't showed us anything. 

I know the numbers aren't great for the Bengals defense, but they were more than solid in the two games against the Bills and Seahawks. They also should have won in Seattle week 1. I think they play well here. As for the offense, I think they score early and often in this one. Take Cincinnati! 

5* NFL - Bears/Raiders Late Info ATS NO-BRAINER on Bears -5½ -110

This game is being played in London and I think even with Trubisky out for Chicago this is an ideal spot to fade the Raiders. Given how bad the Bears offense has looked and the Raiders off an impressive 31-24 win at Indy the public might be tempted to play Oakland. 

What they are going to overlook is this being the 3rd straight road game for the Raiders and just how hard this is for NFL teams. Not to mention we saw how much Oakland's offense struggled against a good Vikings defense a couple weeks ago. Chicago's defense looks like the best in the league. Bears are allowing 11.2 ppg, holding teams almost 8-points under their average. Raiders only average 19.7 ppg and give up 25.5 ppg. Look for Chase Daniel to get the Bears offense going in this one. Take Chicago! 

5* NFL - NFC West (LAR/SEA) PLAY OF THE MONTH on Seahawks -115

Absolutely love the value here with the Seahawks and with the spread so low I would just take Seattle on the money line. I just think the Seahawks are flying a bit under the radar right now because they haven't really had a signature win in 2019. Either way they are 3-1 and are now 9-2 over their last 11 regular-season games dating back to last season. 

They are at a big advantage here playing at home on just 3-days of rest, they also had a much less stressful game this past Sunday. Seahawks coasted to a 27-10 win over Arizona, while Rams were playing from behind all game in a 40-55 loss at home to the Bucs. 

Jameis Winston threw all over the Rams secondary and I think Russell Wilson has looked as good as ever in 2019. I think he has a big game in this one. 

This is also not just another game for Seattle, as they were swept by LA in last year's two meetings and have lost 3 in a row overall. They want revenge and this is simply not the same caliber a Rams team as the one that made the SB last year. 

Seahawks are a dominant 7-0-2 ATS last 9 Thursday games and have covered 8 of their last 12 vs a NFC opponent. Rams 1-5 ATS last 6 Thursday games. Take Seattle! 

5* NFL - Monday Night Football TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bengals/Steelers over 43½ -110

Big time value here with the OVER at this price. While there's some big names missing on the offensive side of the ball for both teams, there's more than enough talent to score on the two defenses that will be playing. 

Steelers are giving up 28.3 ppg and have struggled against both the run and the pass. Teams are averaging 139 ypg on the ground and 303 through the air with 8.7 yards/completion. Bengals are allowing 27.7 ppg. They are giving up 169 rushing yards/game and while they are only giving up 238 ypg thru the air, they too are allowing 8.7 yards/completion. Teams are averaging 6.4 yards/play against the Steelers and 6.6 yards/play against the Bengals. 

OVER is 12-4 in the Steelers last 16 home games and 7-2-1 in the Bengals last 10 vs a division opponent. Take the OVER! 

5* NFL - Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Saints +130

Forget the points, the Saints should not be a home dog to the Cowboys. I'm backing them on the money line. New Orleans is getting no love in this matchup because Drew Brees is out and the public is in love with the 3-0 Cowboys. It only makes me like the Saints more with this line begging the public to take Dallas laying less than a field goal. 

Teddy Bridgewater doesn't bring the same thing to the table as Brees, but he's an experienced signal caller who has flashed when he's been healthy enough to play. It's not just all him. Saints got a great back in Kamara and a very underrated defense. 

Add in the home crowd and how rowdy it's going to be with this being a prime time game and I don't see the Saints losing this one. Dallas is a good but not great team. They have simply beat up on some bad teams to start the year. Take New Orleans! 

4* NFL - Public Massacre NO-BRAINER on Bills +7½ -110

Big time value here with Buffalo as a 7.5-point dog against the Patriots. I just think we are getting a little carried away with how good the Patriots have looked early on in 2019. They whooped the Steelers at home on SNF in Week 1. I know Pitt had Big Ben, but clearly that was the same offense without AB. They got a freebie in a game against Miami, who wants nothing at all to do with winning and lastly the Jets with their 3rd string QB under center. 

Bills are also 3-0, yet no one outside of Buffalo thinks this team is any kind of threat to make serious playoff run. That's probably accurate given the limited offense, but the defense the Bills got is the real deal. They had the No. 1 ranked pass D last year and have been every bit as good in that department this year.

Patriots got a lot key guys hurt right now and I think Brady and the offense struggles. IN both meetings last year and 3 of the last 4 overall, Bills have held the Pats to 25 or fewer points. I think the Bills do enough offensively to keep it within the number and maybe even win outright. Take Buffalo! 

3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Lions +7 -115

Detroit is definitely worth a look at home getting a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes is the talk of the NFL. He looks even better than he did last year in his MVP season. They are one of the big public teams right now and no question the books have inflated the number here on KC. 

The Lions are a 18-point blown 4th quarter lead away from being 3-0. They knocked off a good Chargers team at home and went on the road and beat the Eagles. Instead of giving Detroit credit, people just assume those teams aren't as good as they thought because they lost to the Lions. 

Matt Patricia is doing a much better job than he gets credit for. Mahomes and that KC offense is going to score, but I think the Lions will be able to move the ball at will against a bad Chiefs defense that is due for a letdown after laying it all on the line against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. They also aren't as good on the road when they don't have that home crowd making things so difficult on the opposing offense. Take Detroit! 

3* NFL - Eagles/Packers ATS ANNIHILATOR on Eagles +4½ -110

I think we are getting a great price here on the Eagles catching over a field goal against the Packers on Thursday Night Football. Philadelphia comes in at 1-2 and just lost at home to the Lions as a 4-point favorite. People are starting to second guess this team.

Packers on the other hand are 3-0 and have covered all 3. Public loves betting Aaron Rodgers and thus we get the value with Philadelphia. 

Eagles are really close to being 3-0. At the same time, it's not like the Packers are dominating teams. The defense has really carried them. Rodgers and that offense look out of sync in the scheme. The other thing is we don't really know if the defense is as good as it's looked.

Haven't exactly played the best signal callers with their first 3 against Tribusky, Cousins and Flaco. They also got some key guys banged up on that side that might miss this one. I think Wentz and that Eagles offense will be able to move the ball and wouldn't be shocked if the won the game outright. Take Philadelphia! 

4* NFL - Bears/Redskins MNF Total NO-BRAINER on Bears/Redskins over 41 -105

Love the value here with the OVER between the Bears/Redskins on Monday Night Football. This might seem like a solid number given how bad Chicago's offense has looked in the first two games, but I think we are going to see the Bears put up a big number here. 

Chicago has played a couple of solid defenses the first two weeks and now get a much easier opponent in the Redskins. Washington is giving up over 30 points/game and the key stat for me is the run defense. Redskins are allowing 168 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. I think getting that running game going will really open up some big plays in the air. 

Redskins saw a combined 59 points with a total of just 44 in Week 1 at Philadelphia and 52 with a total of 46 in last week's loss at home to the Cowboys. OVER is 13-4 in the Bears last 17 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games at home. Take the OVER! 

5* NFL - Rams/Browns SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns +3½ -110

I really like Cleveland to cash in a win at home against the Rams, but you got to take the points to be safe. It took a couple of weeks, but we are finally starting to see the public back on Los Angeles. They won and covered as a small favorite at Carolina in Week 1 and blew out New Orleans 27-9 as a small home favorite in Week 2. 

I just don't think it's warranted. I don't know that Carolina is all we thought they would be. Newtown doesn't look like himself and they barely won that game. As for the victory over the Saints, they caught the ultimate break with Drew Brees going down to injury. 

This does not look like the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year, especially on the offensive side. Rams rank in the bottom half of the league at just 224.0 passing yards/game. Jared Goff is also a guy that historically plays much worse on the road. I think he's in for a long day here against Myles Garrett. He was a force against the Jets last week. 

You also have to play into the atmosphere here. It's going to be electric at FirstEnergy Stadium and I got a feeling this Browns team is going to play with a little more fight as an underdog. Take Cleveland! 

4* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER under 44½ -110

I think we are getting some value here with the UNDER in Sunday's AFC matchup between the Bills and Bengals. Buffalo is a team that likes to win ugly. They want to wear you down with the run game and let their defense do the talking. Given how limited the offense is and how good the defense is, it's the perfect type of team for UNDERs. 

Bengals offense has not exactly looked great. Andy Dalton threw for almost 400 yards at Seattle and yet they only could manage 20 points. Last week they had almost 300 in the air and finished with 17. They have no rushing attack. They got 59 yards rushing in two games combined. 

Bills had the No. 1 ranked pass defense last year and are giving up just 198 ypg and 4.6 yards/pass attempt. I know the competition hasn't been great (Jets & Giants), but I think we can trust they are going to be good on that side again. 

Bengals defense isn't great, but it's a lot better than it was last week against the 49ers and definitely capable of keeping Buffalo from going off. Take the UNDER! 

3* NFL - Vegas Line Mistake ATS SHOCKER on Jets +23 -110

I just think we are seeing a massive overreaction here with this line. I get New England is good and they won and covered on the road as a 18-point favorite in last week's 43-0 win at Miami, but the Dolphins simply aren't trying to be competitive. The Jets are down to third string QB Luke Falk, but they are no where close to as bad as Miami. No other team is. 

I know the offense was putrid in the loss the Browns on Monday Night Football, but I really like how the defense competed. I also think given how bad Trevor Siemian has been in this league and how bad he looked, Falk can't be much worse. 

We know the Jets are going to give it all as against the Patriots. There's no team they want to beat more than New England. I know the Pats are the last team you expect to have a letdown, but it's gonna be hard for them to take NY seriously enough to win going away. It could be 34-13 and we are golden. I don't know that NE scores that much. Take the Jets! 

4* NFL - Titans/Jags Thurs Night VEGAS INSIDER on Jaguars +2

The betting public is all over the Titans in this one and I'm not sure why. I really like the value here with Jacksonville as a home dog. I think the Jags are undervalued for a lot of reasons. For one they are 0-2, they got embarrassed in Week 1 at home by the Chiefs and lost starting QB Nick Foles, who was their prized free agent pickup. Not to mention the recent headlines of Jalen Ramsey wanting traded. 

Jacksonville was a 2-point conversion away from winning outright as a 9-point underdog at Houston in Week 2. The loss of Foles sucks, but I've liked what I've seen out of rookie Gardner Minshew. I don't know that the drop off from Foles is as big as people think. I thought Foles was more a product of the system in Philadelphia than anything. 

The other thing is the Jaguars still have one of the best defenses in the league. They just got exposed by Mahomes and that potent Chiefs offense in Week 1. They were really good against Deshaun Watson last week. Titans offense is not good. They are also not the team you want to back as a road favorite. With Marcus Mariota as the starter, Tennessee is 3-7 ATS as a favorite. Take Jacksonville!