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This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK for our CFB Friday Enforcer. NC State moved to 3-1 with a road win at Virginia last Friday and the Wolfpack head back home for their second true test. They lost to Notre Dame by 21 points in their only home game against an FBS opponent and that loss against the spread is part of their 0-4 ATS record on the season. That is adding value here with NC State coming in as the underdog at home. Intangibles can be looked at this point into the season and NC State has been great on third down as it has converted 51.6 percent on offense while allowing just a 30 percent conversion rate on defense and that 21.6 percent disparity is ninth most in the FBS. Conversely, Louisville is with a positive percentage but only 5.6 percent which is good for only No. 53. The schedule can certainly play a role in these but the ranking of the two teams is only 12 spots apart. The Cardinals are 4-0 but the schedule setup tells a lot. They rolled over Murray St. is their non-FBS game while they struggled to put away both Georgia Tech and Indiana which were both away from home and decided by a combined 12 points. Louisville did roll past Boston College last week but that was at home and it was a letdown game for the Eagles coming off a near upset against Florida St. The Cardinals first three FBS have been against teams ranked at least 30 spots lower in the power rankings than NC State. Louisville has done a great job running ball as it is averaging 237.2 ypg on 6.0 ypc but face a defense that is allowing just 114.5 ypg on 3.7 ypc so this is the Cardinals biggest test on that front. 10* (114) NC State Wolfpack

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The Packers are off to a 2-1 start and while they could be 3-0, they could also be 1-2 as their last two games were decided late. Green Bay blew a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter against Atlanta to lose 25-24 and last week, it rallied from a 17-0 fourth quarter deficit to win 18-17. Two things have been evident. First off, the Packers have had the benefit of facing teams with quarterback deficiencies as Justin Fields has regressed from a great ending to last season, Desmond Ridder is simply not good as he put up a 79.8 rating in the comeback win and the Saints lost Derek Carr to a shoulder injury in the third quarter and the offense was not the same. Second, while Jordan Love orchestrated the comeback, he was inconsistent after finally facing a strong defense which will be the case again this week. He put up big ratings against Chicago and Atlanta but overall, he is completing only 53.1 percent of his passes. Not only does Green Bay see another tough defense, its own defense will finally see a quarterback that can produce. Jared Goff was not asked to sling it around last week so he only amassed 243 yards but he is completing 70 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and two interceptions. The Lions were on the wrong end of a coin flip in overtime against Seattle and they never saw the ball in their only loss. Defensively, generating pressure on the quarterback was an issue the first two games but both Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith get the ball out quick and last week, the Lions go to Ridder seven times and Love has not shown the ability to make consistent, quick decisions. 10* (101) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the SAM HOUSTON ST. BEARKATS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. The transition to the FBS has not been a good one for Sam Houston St. as it is off to a 0-3 start with the early schedule going totally against it. The Bearkats have yet to play a game at their campus home as they have had two true road games against BYU and Houston along with a neutral site game against Air Force and this has amounted to the No. 6 hardest schedule in the country. The offense has suffered as it has been horrid as the unit is last in success rate, yards per play and points per game this season but they finally get a break playing at home and going up against an opponent that has a much different start. Jacksonville St. is 3-1 but its schedule has been the complete opposite as it is ranked No. 168 in strength. The Gamecocks have played three of its four games at home including one against an FCS opponent as it lost by 14 points in its only road game at Coastal Carolina. Jacksonville St. has offensive questions of its own, yet to score more than 21 points against an FBS foe and this despite having a +9 turnover margin which is No. 2 in the country behind Penn St. so it has not been able to take advantage of this to go along with the soft schedule. This is not an explosive offense as the Gamecocks grind it out on the ground as they average 50 carries per game which is third most behind Air Force and Army and that has put the total as a ridiculously low 36.5 which favors the underdog at an inflated price. When factoring in the strength of schedule and other metrics, this line should be closer to a pickem than a touchdown. 10* (108) Sam Houston St. Bearkats

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Philadelphia is off to a 2-0 start with a pair of ugly wins and it goes into a tougher than expected matchup. Offensively, something is off even though the Eagles were able to run the ball all over Minnesota with 259 yards but they cannot have that success again against a much better defensive front. The system is basically the same as last season but having a new offensive coordinator takes time to adjust to play calling. The big mismatch though is on the other side of the ball as the Eagles secondary is a mess and will be facing one of the top receiving corps in the league which can do a reversal as well and open up the running game that has been pedestrian so far. We have seen this line drop despite the majority of the money coming in on the Eagles which are going to be a very public team come kickoff. Tampa Bay is also 2-0 to start the season and it can certainly be considered a fraudulent 2-0 thank to the Buccaneers being +5 in turnover margin. While he does get a bad rap, Baker Mayfield has performed well in this offense as he is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and has a 104.4 quarterback rating as he has avoided the turnovers. He will have plenty of looks downfield against this Eagles defense that has allowed 306 and 346 yards through the air in their first two games. While the Buccaneers defense has not faced an offensive line this strong yet, the fact they have allowed only 108 yards rushing in both games total still does say something. 10* (478) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. The Steelers came through for us Monday in a wrong side win as they were outgained 408-255 but the defense generated four turnovers, two that led to direct touchdowns saving some fantasy teams, or ruining some, along the way as well. Pittsburgh has now been outgained 799-494 in its two games and both of those were at home and now it hits the road for the first time. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has yet to hit his sophomore stride as he is ranked No. 30 in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats and looks lost in this offense. Part of the problem is that he has no rushing game to help him out and that is the issue on both sides. Offensively, the Steelers have rushed for 96 yards on 31 carries (3.1 ypc) and on defense, they have allowed 386 yards on 69 carries (5.6 ypc) and that is not going to get it done as the back half can only do so much. The Raiders upset Denver on the road in their opener and then jumped ahead of Buffalo 7-0 before the Bills took over last week. They are back home in Las Vegas for their home opener in hopes of getting their own running game going as they have ran for only 116 yards on 44 carries (2.6 ypc) but facing this defense can turn that around. Josh Jacobs is coming off one of his worst games ever as he carried the ball nine times for -2 yards so expect a lot more from him. The defense got torched by Josh Allen after holding Russell Wilson to just 166 yards passing the previous week and Picket will not have success. This line opened at even and move to the Steelers being the favorite but it has flipped to the Raiders side. 10* (476) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Carolina is off to an expected 0-2 start with a pair of division losses that could have gone either way if not or turnovers. The Panthers outgained Atlanta 281-221 but were -2 in turnovers and last Monday they could not convert in the redzone. The Carolina offense has stumbled the first two games behind rookie quarterback Bryce Young but in his defense, even though the sample size is small with just one other game played by the opposition, he has faced the No. 3 and No. 6 ranked defenses in yppl and now it will be Andy Dalton going up against the No. 30 ranked defense as Seattle is allowing 5.9 yppl and he is far from a downgrade. The running game has been just fine as the Panthers have rushed for 254 yards on 51 carries (5.0 ypc) despite Miles Sanders not breaking out yet. Seattle opened as the favorite at 4 and it jumped slightly to 4.5 and then after the Carolina loss it has moved all the way to 6 as of Wednesday. The Seahawks were outgained in regulation by 100 yards last week against Detroit after getting outgained by the Rams 426-180 so it has not gone great despite being 1-1. Give Geno Smith credit for bouncing back last week but he is still ranked just No. 18 in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats and with both tackles still hurt, he faces an underrated defense that is ranked No. 7 in defensive yppl. The one concern was Young coming into a hostile environment as a rookie but Dalton is experienced and better equipped for the surroundings so he will be just fine and let the defense to its thing in what looks like a field goal game either way. 10* (469) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We played against Cleveland on Monday night and won even though it was the wrong side as the Browns gave the game away with a pair of defensive touchdowns for the Steelers. Deshawn Watson was not good, especially in the clutch, but he went up against one of the top defenses in the league that people do not like to admit. The loss of Nick Chubb was devastating for him and not a good one for the Browns but not bad enough that they cannot overcome. They face another good defense here but they are in a good spot coming off that loss where they outgained the Steelers 408-255 but four turnovers overall did them in including the aforementioned two that directly turned into scores. Tennessee overcame an early 11-0 deficit to win in overtime against Los Angeles in a very even game where they lost the yardage battle by just one yard and it was a clean game with no turnovers on eighter side. The Titans come into a bad spot this week and while their defense looks good, they have allowed 282 and 281 yards passing the first two games which gives hope to Watson. The offense managed only 285 yards against the Saints in their first road game while settling for five field goals. Tennessee faced one of the worst defenses in the NFL last week after going against that tough New Orleans defense and it has another challenge here as Cleveland is the only team in the NFL where its opponent has yet to run a play in its redzone so this defense has been for real. This line opened 4.5 and went up to 5 but after Monday night, the line has come down considerably which is a big overreaction. 10* (454) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our AFC Game of the Month. One paper, this looks like a Miami lay as the Dolphins are off to a 2-0 start with both wins coming on the road while the Broncos are 0-2 with both of their losses coming at home. This is an opposite situational play based on that and we are getting value on top of backing Denver along with other factors that are not being taken into consideration. Luck factor is a big ingredient in finding value and this game fully falls into this metric with these teams on opposite ends of those ratings. The Broncos come in as the second unluckiest team at -46.4 percent as they have lost two winnable games by a combined three points. Denver was outgained by the Raiders by one yard and against Washington, it outgained the Commanders 399-388, albeit a big chunk coming on the Hail Mary, which is a slim margin but blew a 21-3 lead in the process as it fell apart down the stretch. Many are calling Russell Wilson a wash but there is more to it than a 0-2 record and an eye test as he is ranked No. 5 in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats which include how yards are accumulated along with defensive pressure. Miami is the third luckiest team in the league at 43.2 percent coming off a couple games that could have gone either way. But because of the 2-0 start, the Dolphins are shooting up in the futures market to win the AFC and the Super Bowl while Tua Tagovailoa is now the favorite to win MVP and yes, he is ranked behind Wilson in the NFL Advance Quarterback Stats. The records alone are factoring into the number which opened at 6 and has moved to 6.5 with 7 possibly coming thanks to 80 percent of money on Miami. 10* (461) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Falcons are off to a 2-0 start and were hammered when this line came out at 6 and when down to 4.5 shortly after and it continues to drop as it is down to 3.5 as of Wednesday with some 3-120 out there and a flat 3 could become available. Atlanta took care of a rookie quarterback in his first ever road game in the season opener and then was able to overcome a 12-point deficit against Green Bay last week. It has been a tale of two different offenses for the Falcons despite scoring 24 and 25 points as they put up 221 yards against the Panthers but upped that to 446 yards against Green Bay so we do not know much based on two games of 5.0 yppl and 5.8 yppl other than the fact the total of 5.3 yppl is middle of the pack and now the Falcons leave the fast turn of the dome for the first time. We played against Detroit last week as the Seahawks won in overtime with the Lions never seeing the ball and to be fair, that is a regular season rule that needs to go away. The Lions were overpriced last week against Seattle following their win over the Chiefs the previous Thursday in their opener and now we are seeing a reversal based on their loss and the Falcons undefeated start. Detroit outgained Seattle 418-393 despite not seeing the ball in overtime with 75 of those opposing yards coming after regulation. Detroit is No. 4 in the NFL in yppl at 5.9 and while the Falcons defense is ranked No. 3 in defensive yppl at 4.2, the success has mostly come in the passing defense as they have allowed only 4.2 ypa against young quarterbacks Bryce Young and Jordan Love but Jared Goff is averaging 8.1 ypa. 10* (466) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our CFB Star Attraction. USC comes in as a massive favorite which comes as no surprise as the Trojans have rolled the competition in their 3-0 start. They are averaging 59.3 ppg but they have not been tested as the last two games have come against Nevada and Stanford, ranked No. 132 and No. 105 respectively. The first game was against San Jose St. which was the best of the three at No. 78 and the Spartans were able to keep it close for a while and put up 28 points against this suspect defense. This will be their toughest opponent since then and the situation is not in their favor. USC is coming off a bye week which is insignificant here as its last two games can be constituted as byes and now the trojans hit the road for the first time with a game at Colorado on deck, also on the road. Arizona St. is off to a 1-2 start as it snuck by Southern Utah of the FCS in its opener and then lost to Oklahoma St. 27-15 before getting shutout last week against Fresno St. 29-0. The Bulldogs are a very underrated 3-0 but even with that, the Sun Devils gave the game away by losing the turnover battle 8-0 and no team is going to compete with a differential like that. To their credit, the defense played well, allowing just 350 yards of offense and holding Fresno St. to seven field goal attempts. Here, we play against teams with a turnover differential of +0.75 per game or better and after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better going up against teams with a turnover differential of -0.75 per game or worse. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (370) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Big 10 Game of the Month. One of the late marquee matchups takes place in Happy Valley with Penn St. and Iowa squaring off in a big early conference showdown. The Nittany Lions are 3-0 while covering all three of those games which includes a win at Illinois last week in their Big Ten opener by a score of 30-13 but that was a misleading final. Penn St. won the yardage battle by just 29 total yards but were +5 in turnovers which completely skewed the game and the big win and cover are inflating this line which should be single digits according to our numbers. The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 7 in our rankings which is equivalent to the biased AP Poll while Iowa comes in No. 20, higher than its No. 24 ranking in the AP Poll. This place in tough at night for opponents but this has never been a good matchup for Penn St. and it should be another epic battle. Iowa is also 3-0 and while its wins are not as big, they have been equally impressive considering the schedule ranks are separated by only nine spots so the level of competition has been very similar. The offense came to life last week which was big for the confidence of this team as they were finally able to get a running game going. It will not be easy here but the Hawkeyes still bank on one of the top defenses in the country that has allowed just 12.3 ppg and faces an offense whose numbers are inflated by a 63-7 win over Delaware. Here, we play on road teams with a scoring defense allowing 14 or fewer ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (425) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the NEVADA WOLF PACK for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Texas St. opened the season with one of the biggest upsets of the season as it won at Baylor by 11 points as a 26.5-point underdog which immediately put the Bobcats on the map. They followed that up with a loss against UTSA by a touchdown but they were outgained by 130 total yards as it really should not have been that close. Texas St. bounced back with a resounding 77-34 win last week but that was against Jackson St. of the FCS but the Tigers are not a very good team even from that division. That victory has propelled this line to nearly the same as they were favored by last week which is a complete overreaction even though it comes against a winless team. Nevada is off to a 0-3 start that does include a loss against Idaho of the FCS but the Vandals are actually one of the best teams there, ranked No. 4 in power rating among FCS teams. The Wolf Pack were thumped by USC which is not a concern as they were 38-point underdogs and they are coming off their best effort last week as they lost to Kansas by just a touchdown that was not decided until late in the fourth quarter and they closed as four-touchdown underdogs. Texas St. has consecutive road SBC games on deck which put it in a tough spot coming off a feel good about itself win and going into a lookahead situation while facing a nonconference opponent. Here, we play on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off 2 or more consecutive unders and getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg on the season. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (397) Nevada Wolf Pack

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. South Alabama is coming off a 10-3 season and comes into this campaign as the leading contender in the SBC West. The Jaguars are 2-1 to start the season and coming off a huge upset against Oklahoma St. last week as they won 33-7 as one touchdown underdogs with many calling it the biggest win in program history and that has inflated this number which is off by five points according to our numbers. South Alabama is a loaded team that brought back 18 starters but three key starters are out as its second leading running back from last season. The Jaguars had three home games last season following a road win and while they won all three, two were by just a touchdown as over two touchdown favorites and they open conference action next week on the road at James Madison. Central Michigan is 1-2 with bookend losses at Michigan St. and Notre Dame sandwiched around a win against New Hampshire of the FCS. The Chippewas have not done much in the passing game but this is a run first offense that brought back four of their top five rushers from last season. One of those is quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. but he missed the game last week against Notre Dame due to illness but will be back this week. He was the MAC West Offensive Play of the Week two weeks ago. Here, we play on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game, returning five or less offensive starters going up against teams returning eight or more defensive starters. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (395) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Michigan St. opened the season with a pair of wins over Central Michigan and Richmond but it has all come crashing down. The Spartans were involved in the first big scandal of the college football season with head coach Mel Tucker being suspended last week, and eventually fired this week, and they were no match for Washington which came into East Lansing and rolled 41-7. Michigan St. clearly did not show up as it was unable to move the ball and while the defense was torched through the air, the distractions were too much against one of the best teams in the country. They remain home to host their conference opener which will be their last home game in a month and the line has moved in their direction and is inflated. The Terrapins are off to a 3-0 start but those wins were against Towson of the FCS, Charlotte and Virginia, the latter two ranked No. 149 and No. 110 respectively. Michigan St. is ranked No. 51 which is not good by its standards but easily the best team Maryland has faced. Additionally, all three of those games were at home and Maryland has been a suspect road team of late, going 7-17 in its last 24 road games. Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has gotten off to good start with 889 yards passing just at just a 66 percent slip while throwing only five touchdowns and two interceptions. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 34 or more ppg and after scoring 37 points or more last game going up against teams allowing between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (380) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the BALL ST. CARDINALS for our CFB Upset Special. This is an interesting scenario where Georgia Southern has a positive misleading factor in its favor but also a few negatives that may not be taken into account with this number. It is coming off its first loss of the season against Wisconsin by 21 points but it was a misleading final as the Eagles won the yardage battle but lost the turnover margin 6-0 and no team can recover from that. While they did outgain the Badgers, Wisconsin is not a good team so the fact that yardage advantage happened should be no surprise. The two victories came against The Citadel of the FCS and a pretty bad UAB team and overall, Georgia Southern has played a schedule ranked No. 160. Ball St. opened the season as tough as it can get and even though many are calling the SEC being in a down year, the Cardinals went on the road the first two weeks at Kentucky and Georgia so going 0-2 was a given. They bounced back with a win last week against Indiana St. of the FCS which is far from a quality win but it provided confidence and a chance to cure the ills. Ball St. has played the No. 9 ranked schedule. They got a spark from the running game and will utilize that here against an Eagles defense that was torched last week on the ground and while that might not be a surprise, The Citadel did the same in the opener. Here, we play against road favorites averaging 440 or more ypg and after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game going up against a team allowing between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 86-41 ATS (67.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (350) Ball St. Cardinals

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. One of the marquee games of the weekend will go a long way in which teams are going to make it to the ACC Championship. Florida St. will have the inside track with a win here as it could hand Clemson two conference losses and early money is banking on that happening but we do not see it. The Seminoles already own a big quality win over LSU which bodes well as far as having the experience of favoring a power opponent and winning for that matter. Obviously, the Seminoles looked horrible last week against lowly Boston College but we are not banking any of that on this play as they were clearly in lookahead mode. The big factor is the matchup as any strength they have is negated by the opposite strength from Clemson. The Tigers opened the season with a bad loss against Duke and not bad because it was Duke because the Blue Devils are an excellent team, but bad from the standpoint where they basically lost the game on their own. Clemson outgained Duke 422-374 but costly turnovers in the wrong places did them in. They have rebounded with a pair of winners over much lesser teams but that is not a bad thing as the Tigers have been able to get those kinks out. The home field edge will come into play here and it would be even more so if it was at night but it is still a great schedule spot. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging 34 or more ppg and after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 45-16 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (336) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the SAN JOSE ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. All four games on Friday feature home underdogs and the shortest of the bunch is San Jose St. and it is no surprise that Air Force is dominating the early money but this line is low for a reason and betting on just the record will be the popular play here. San Jose St. is off to a 1-3 start during nonconference action with the only win coming against Cal Poly of the FCS. Two of those losses were against USC and Oregon St. from the Pac 12 with the latter being a sleeper contender, and Toledo, which is a top contender in the MAC. While the talent level in the conference is not top notch, quarterback Chevan Cordeiro is one of the top signal callers in the MWC as he is a Preseason Second Team selection after a very underrated season a year ago where he threw for 3,251 yards with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions. Overall, nine starters on offense are back. Air Force is off to a 3-0 start and has dominated everywhere but it has played no one. The Falcons are a top team in the conference no doubt and have won eight straight games going back to last season but this is definitely a challenge. They have played Robert Morris of the FCS, San Houston St. which is one year removed from the FCS and a rebuilding Utah St. team so this is easily the first real test and it comes in their first true road game. The Falcons are dominating on the ground as per usual but gone from last season is quarterback Haaziq Daniels who was a three-year starter and ran the triple option to perfection. San Jose. St. has five starters back on defense and while it will not be easy, they can slow it down. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a home win by 17 points or more, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (314) San Jose St. Spartans

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. The advance line opened at 9.5 and moved to 10 by Sunday night following the Saquon Barkley injury and has now shot up to 10.5 and 11 in some spots after the news that Barkley will be out a few games. it is a big blow to both Barkley, who is playing for a contract and incentives, and to the Giants but nothing they cannot get past here. The early money is all over San Francisco for obvious reasons and it will likely continue to pour in on the 49ers leading into Thursday. New York is coming off a must needed win and it took a huge second half comeback and while it takes a big step up in competition here, the linesmakers know that. After six quarters of dreadful offense, the Giants finally got things going in the second half against the Cardinals and they can carry that momentum into Thursday. It is a short week with a second consecutive road game but New York stayed out west so it is not at a big disadvantage from that standpoint. The 49ers have won both of their games without much resistance from the Steelers or Rams and while coming into the season as a public team, they are even more so now. From a situational standpoint, they do not have an edge here coming off a divisional game while also playing on a short week in the same timeframe. The defense did show vulnerabilities against the pass last week as they were unable to contain rookie Puka Nacua despite him being targeted 20 times. This is a spot where the Giants rookie Jalin Hyatt could see more coming his way after being targeted only twice last week but gaining 89 yards. Offensively, quarterback Brock Purdy has been decent yet unspectacular and the Giants defense can build on its momentum as well. Excellent contrarian spot. Here, we play on road teams after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (301) New York Giants

This is a play on the COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Georgia St. is off to a 3-0 start with both FBS wins coming by at least 16 points. The Panthers have yet to be tested and they did get a scare in their opener against Rhode Island of the FCS as they won by a touchdown with the difference maker ending being an interception returned for a score. They are coming off their first road game of the season which came against a bad Charlotte team that is expected to finish near the bottom of the 14-team AAC. A bright spot was quarterback Darren Grainger who went off for 466 yards on 27-33 passing and three touchdowns. He will be facing a much tougher test against a Coastal Carolina defense that is allowing just 202 ypg passing on only 55.4 percent completions. The Chanticleers rolled over Duquesne last week in their FCS game and while that was not a good indicator of what to expect, they do have one solid opponent they have played. Coastal Carolina went to UCLA and played the Bruins tough as they fell 27-13 and it was a one-point game going into the fourth quarter and just a one possession game with less than six minutes remaining. That made it four straight losses for the Chanticleers going back to last season but all of those game were away from home and they have rolled in their two home games since and going back, the SBC contenders are 21-2 in their last 23 home games with one of those losses coming against Georgia St. two years ago by two points. As a matter of fact, these teams have met over the last six years with the home team yet to win and that streak finally comes to an end this season behind the best player on the field in quarterback Grayson McCall who can show his stuff in a stand alone game. 10* (304) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Overreaction time ends in Week Two on Monday night between the Browns and Steelers. Obviously, the line needs to be reactive to what happened last week but the adjustments can be too big, which is the case here. The Steelers were -1 on the advance line, but because they were hammered by the 49ers at home coupled with the Cleveland win at home, the line has flipped over a field goal. As a comparison, Pittsburgh closed +1 against San Francisco and now it is getting a point and a half more against a team not on the same level as the 49ers. The Steelers were dominated on both sides of the ball but that was against arguably the best roster in the league and we will get a better effort this week and they have the advantage of remaining home on a short week. Also factoring into the line is the fact Cleveland rolled over Cincinnati last week but the Browns had an advantageous situation. The weather played a big factor as it took away the prolific Bengals passing attack and adding to that was that quarterback Joe Burrow missed all of camp with a calf injury and his rust was evident. Cleveland held Cincinnati to only 142 total yards and while it does possess a strong defense facing a team that put up just 239 yards of offense last week, it will not be a repeat. This is a great bounce back situation with a line in our favor. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems coming off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (292) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Non-Division Game of the Month. The Giants had one of the worst efforts in Week One as they were the only teams that did not score a point but we cannot go off one just one week in this situation. Unfortunately, we are not getting a similar overreaction line with New York like other teams but that is based on the opponent. This has already turned into a huge game for the Giants as they are looking right at a 0-3 start should they not show up here as they have to travel to San Francisco next week and there is no chance of a look ahead. Coaching is huge for a recovery and last season under Brian Daboll, the Giants went 7-0 ATS following a loss. Arizona is expected to be the worst team in the NFL with a new staff and a poor quarterback on a bad roster. The Cardinals are coming off a valiant effort against Washington last week as they lost by just four points but were fortunate. The Commanders gave it up three times while the Arizona offense could do nothing, generating only 210 yards on 3.8 yppl. While they face a defense that allowed 40 points, it was not the defense that was at fault as New York allowed only 248 yards to the Cowboys. Offensively, Daniel Jones was under pressure the whole game and it will be a different story this week. Here, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 22-2 ATS (91.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (279) New York Giants

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. We have seen a ton of line movement in a lot of games this week and this is one of those based on the results from last week. Seattle looked atrocious against the Rams on both sides of the ball as it was outgained 426-180 and anyone who was on the Seahawks are certainly hopping off this week. The advance line was 2.5 points and has skyrocketed up to 6 points based on that game as well as the other side of things. Typically no team in the NFL looks as good or bad as they did the previous week and we are expecting a bounce back game from the Seahawks. Detroit is off the upset on Thursday night against Kansas City and while it did outgain the Chiefs in the victory, the difference in the game was the pick six and the fact that the Chiefs receivers were abysmal. The Lions have moved up the power rankings and remain one of just a handful of teams expected to contend in the NFC but now they are overpriced. Detroit could very well be deserving of having an inflated line but it has not really proven much yet especially this early in the season. Offensively, the Lions do have a good matchup but on the other side, the defense is still a work in progress and Seattle will certainly be better than last week. Here, we play on road teams off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 22-2 ATS (91.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (269) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We played against the Bills and thought that was as dead bet four plays into the game but the Jets defense came through and stifled the Bills once again similar to both games last season. Buffalo is back home and while some are already writing them off, that is a horrible take as this is still a top 10 team and expect Josh Allen to recover. He goes from facing one of the best defenses in the NFL to one of the worst and being at home helps. He has gone 9-4 ATS in his last 13 games following a loss. The defense did catch a break with Aaron Rodgers going down and while they struggled to stop the run, their gameplan was shot and will be ready for a run heavy opponent this week. The Raiders pulled off the mild upset in Denver but is Los Angeles a good team or is Denver once again bad? We lean to the former. There were missed reactions about the Raiders coming into the season as they were anywhere from a sleeper contender to one of the worst team in the league and despite a good defensive effort last week, this defense is not good and that will show up here. Russell Wilson was unable to get the ball down field but still completed 79 percent of his passes and Allen brings in a whole different dynamic. Five of the last eight wins last season were by one possession but those were all after Allen was injured and now we get him healthy coming off an awful game. 10* (274) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Chiefs were unable to please the home crowd following their Super Bowl win as they lost an ugly opener against Detroit, a game they could have started to put away but mistakes cost them. Patrick Maholmes had a fairly average night but he was not totally at fault as of his 18 incompletions, eight were flat out dropped passes. Kansas City was missing two of its top players on each side of the ball in the opener but both are expected back. Tight end Travis Kelce will return to help in the passing game on offense and that is huge against this defense that is not good in the middle and Kelce exposed that last season with 20 catches for 173 yards and three touchdowns in the two meetings. Jacksonville opened its season with a victory but that was against the Colts which are one of the worst teams in the league and now the Jaguars go from facing a rookie quarterback to going up against Maholmes coming off a loss. The Jaguars allowed 280 yards to the Colts but it is a different story this week. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has come into his own after some early struggles but will face a tougher test here. He struggled against the Chiefs in the playoffs last season and while his regular season game was much better, he was still sacked five times. Last week against Kansas City he would have been in a better place but now Chris Jones is expected back, which adds a whole new element. 10* (275) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Wyoming has quietly put together two straight winning seasons and over the last seven seasons, the Cowboys have finished below .500 only once and that was the 2-4 COVID season in 2020. Head coach Craig Bohl has turned the program around and Wyoming should be better this season as it returns 15 starters including 10 from an already strong defense. They opened the season with an impressive come-from-behind win over Texas Tech in double overtime as they rallied from a 17-0 deficit. Wyoming followed that up with a less than impressive win over Portland St. by 14 points but a letdown was not a surprise especially with this game on deck. While this is their first road game, the spot and line set up great. Texas is coming off a monumental win at Alabama last week to improve to 2-0 and it has moved up to No. 4 in the AP Poll and in its own letdown spot this week with its Big XII opener on deck next week at Baylor. To their credit last season, they rolled over UTSA following their one point loss against Alabama but a loss is different than a win and that certainly affects the future line going forward. The Longhorns have played mistake free football as they have yet to turn it over, going +5 in turnover margin and while they were able to move the ball well against the Crimson Tide, they go up against a sneaky good defense here. 10* (201) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS for our CFB Star Attraction. Mississippi is coming off a fight last week at Tulane as it was a misleading final score. The Rebels were up by just one touchdown with less than two minutes remaining and were able to make it a two-score game on a 56-yard field goal and then scored on a fumble recovery to seal it. They outgained the Green Wave by only 21 total yards and this outcome probably would have been a lot different has Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt been able to play. That score result as well as the 73-7 shellacking of Mercer to open the season is inflating this number and it continued to rise after opening. Mississippi will not have an easy out here and with Alabama on deck, there could very well be a look ahead. Georgia Tech is 1-1 as it opened with a tough five-point loss against Louisville as it won the yardage battle but was -1 in turnovers and then bounced back last week with a 48-13 win over South Carolina St. Even though that was an FCS opponent, the Yellow Jackets have to feel good about their offense that has already scored more points in both games than they did in 11 games last season. This is nearly an identical situation as last year when it won an FCS game and then faced Mississippi only to lose 42-0 but that was with Geoff Collins as head coach who was fired immediately after. Brent Key has this team believing and is 5-5 since taking over with two of those losses coming by one possession. 10* (189) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This is a play on the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Arkansas went through the motions last week against an undermanned Kent St. team and won by a score of just 28-6. The Razorbacks are 2-0 as they were favored by 38 points in both of those games and this is an important game to put together a solid effort on both sides of the ball. It is a brutal stretch coming up with four games against LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi and Alabama with none of those taking place at home. The Razorbacks have held Western Carolina and Kent St. to 102 yards rushing on 65 carries (1.6 ypc) and while this will be a bigger test, it is not that much of a challenge coming in. Quarterback K.J. Jefferson has been efficient as he has completed nearly 74 percent of his passes for 382 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. BYU is also 2-0 but it is an unimpressive 2-0. The Cougars narrowly defeated Sam Houston St. 14-0, its first year at the FBS level, and then took out Southern Utah 41-16 last week but they outgained the Thunderbirds by only 48 total yards. They are led by quarterback Keydon Slovis who is with his third program in three years and he has been average fitting into another new system, completing just over 64 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception. The running game has been non-existent as BYU has rushed for 158 yards on 57 carries (2.8 ypc). Tough atmosphere in the first night game in Fayetteville this season. 10* (198) Arkansas Razorbacks

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our SEC Game of the Month. Florida caught a tough scheduling break to open the season as it had to travel to Utah which came in on a 27-2 run its last 29 home games. The No. 10 ranked defensive line in the country held the Gators to 13 yards rushing on 20 carries and without that, they could get nothing going. Quarterback Graham Mertz played a solid game going 31-44 for 333 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Florida got its game together last week against McNeese St. and while it was far from a test, it got the needed reps to get the balance back and rushed for 327 yards with Mertz not needed and not playing the whole game. He can light this Tennessee defense up as the Volunteers were No. 128 last season in passing defense and came into this season with the No. 8 ranked secondary in the SEC. Tennessee had no issue with Virginia to open the season but came out slow last week against Austin Peay and won by a score of just 30-13. Call it a possible lookahead to this game but giving up 260 yards passing to the Governors is uncalled for. Quarterback Joe Milton III is still inaccurate while he did not play well in his lone road start at Vanderbilt and this is a much tougher test. The Volunteers will try and establish the run where it has been pretty average and Florida has been solid in both game stopping the run as it improved its talent along the front seven in the transfer portal. Upset alert in Gainesville. 10* (176) Florida Gators

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CFB Upset Special. North Texas came up small for us last week as the Mean Green lost to Florida International by a touchdown despite outgaining the Panthers as turnovers did them in. Three to be exact including an interception that was returned 40 yards for a touchdown. North Texas now goes from an 11.5-point road favorite to a 4.5-point road underdog against a team that is not 15 points better. The 0-2 start is playing into the line which is an overreaction. The defense has been bad over the first two games but they face an offense that has struggled against FBS foes and with a bye week on deck, full focus will be on display. Louisiana Tech is off to a 2-1 start and while it rolled over Northwestern St. last week, that was an FCS opponent and the Bulldogs have not looked good in the two FBS games they have played. They got destroyed at SMU 38-14 as the offense mustered only 269 total yards which came after a season opening win against Florida International by five points. They did win the yardage battle by a 268 yards but they struggled in key situations which led to five field goal attempts while committing a pair of costly turnovers. This is the first season for quarterback Hank Bachmeier who is a transfer from Boise St. and he has regressed each game while completing 67 percent of his passes for 684 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. 10* (179) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. East Carolina has started 0-2 but it has been a tale of two different scenarios. The Pirates went to Ann Arbor and hung around admirably against Michigan in the 30-3 loss as they held the Wolverines to 122 yards rushing on 31 carries (3.9 ypc). Last week, they had their home opener against Marshall and East Carolina had a 13-10 lead before a lengthy weather delay completely changed the flow of the game and the Pirates came out of the break flat and allowed 21 fourth quarter points to lose 31-13. East Carolina has qualified for a bowl the last two seasons and while they lost a few key starters, a couple games under their belt in a benefit. This is a great bounce back spot as the Pirates are 14-3 ATS in heir last 17 games as single digit underdogs when coming off a double-digit loss. Appalachian St. is coming off a tough loss against North Carolina for a second straight season as it lost in overtime 40-34. The Mountaineers got bludgeoned on the ground, allowing 319 yards on 45 carries (7.1 ypc) after allowing 134 yards on 27 carries (5.0 ypc) against Gardner Webb of the FCS where they outgained the Bulldogs by just 29 total yards. Like the Pirates, they are down a lot of starters form last season including quarterback Chase Brice and Joey Aguilar was bottled up last week. Appalachian St. has been awful in this role of late, going 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when laying points against FBS opponents. 10* (147) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Kansas St. is off to a 2-0 start coming off its 10-4 season and based on this line, last year is still being taken into consideration. The Wildcats were favored by 14.5 points against Troy at home last week so if that was on the road, they would be favored by only five more points than they are against a team from the SEC this week. Both wins have been impressive on the scoreboard but they were against SE Missouri St. of the FCS and while the Trojans were riding a 12-game winning streak, their first win came against Stephen F. Austin where they allowed 30 points. Offensively, Kansas St. still has a good quarterback in Will Howard they lost running back Deuce Vaughn and four of their top six receivers and finally face a defensive test. Missouri has not exactly looked impressive in its two victories as it did roll South Dakota but failed to cover and then narrowly beat Middle Tennessee St. last week by four points. This is a good matchup despite the uptick in the level of competition. Despite the loss of Vaughn, the Wildcats are a run first team and Missouri has held its first two opponents to 109 yards rushing on 64 carries (1.7 ypc). Yes, this came against two lesser teams but the Tigers bring back eight starters that improved its rushing yards allowed by over 100 ypg from 2021 and gave up just 3.7 ypg and that is against heavy SEC competition. They are out for some revenge following the 40-12 loss in Manhattan last season. 10* (130) Missouri Tigers

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. UTSA has come up on the short end of covers in its first two games and now it is in a situation in the spotlight to show what this team is actually made of. The Roadrunners opened the season with a three-point loss against Houston and then defeated Texas St. by seven points last week and based on the stats, both should have been easy wins. They outgained Houston and Texas St. by 78 and 130 total yards respectively but they are down 4-0 in turnovers which is the contributing factor. UTSA has controlled the line of scrimmage as it has rushed for 366 yards on 89 carries (4.1 ypc) while allowing just 137 yards on 64 carries (2.1 ypc) and this should come as no surprise as the Roadrunners came into the season with the No. 5 ranked offensive line and No. 1 ranked defensive line in the AAC. Army is also off to a 1-1 start but its competition has been a lot lighter. The Black Knights lost to ULM in their first game despite being an 8.5-point favorite but bounced back last week with a 57-0 win over Delaware St. of the FCS which is bad enough but it is ranked No. 108 out of 128 FCS teams. While it rolled last week, Army was outgained by the Warhawks as the offense still needs work. It is a new look Army team on offense this season s head coach Jeff Monken replaced his nine-year offensive coordinator despite averaging 5.8 yppl last season, the most since 2017, with Drew Thatcher who is implementing a new offensive shotgun zone read scheme. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc and after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games going up against a team allowing between 3.0 and 3.5 ypc. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) since 1992. 10* (112) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. Week One overreactions will be prevalent in the lines this week and it starts with the first game of Week Two based on score results. Minnesota hits the road following an opening loss at home against Tampa Bay 20-17 and we easily won that one with the Buccaneers outright victory. The Vikings were unfortunate as they outgained Tampa Bay 369-242 but lost the turnover battle 3-0 and it is rare to pull out a victory with that discrepancy. Minnesota was unable to produce any sort of running game as it rushed for just 41 yards on 17 carries (2.4 ypc) and while Kirk Cousins was able to move the ball at will with 344 yards on 33-44 passing, he was responsible for all three turnovers with one interception and two fumbles. The defense played good enough to win and will need another strong effort. The Eagles won in New England 25-20 as they nearly blew a 16-0 first quarter lead. Philadelphia scored its first touchdown of the season on a 70-yard interception return as the offense was not very good. The Eagles were outgained 382-251 as they struggled on third down going 4-13 and were forced into four field goals and play calling was a concern with new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson and it could take time for this unit to come together. The defense did a good job limiting the Patriots rushing attack but Mac Jones threw for 316 yards with that one interception being the difference. Here, we play against home favorites after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (103) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Monday Signature Enforcer. The Jets were in the playoff hunt last season as they rolled into Week 13 with a 7-4 record but went on to lose their final six games to finish 7-10 as the offense could not get out of its own way. New York averaged only 11 ppg over those final six games while scoring just 15 points combined over the final three games so it was clear adjustments had to be made on that side of the ball. Overall, the Jets were 30th in EPA per play and they made the splash move of the offseason with the trade to get Aaron Rodgers and added to that with the signing of running back Dalvin Cook late into training camp to possess one of the best one-two running back options with a healthy Breece Hall behind him. While the offense has no where to go but up, the defense of New York will be a difference maker all season. The Jets ranked No. 6 EPA per play on defense and it did its job against Buffalo last season, holding the Bills to 17 and 20 points in the two meetings and those two games were two of the three lowest point totals for the Bills during the regular season with the other being 19 points scored in Miami in September in the oppressive heat. Quarterback Josh Allen posted a 64.4 passer rating in those games while completing less than 56 percent of his passes albeit being injured in one of those games. The line swing from last season is huge as the Bills were favored by 10 points here last November but are still the favorite and not in a good situation as opening Monday night divisional favorites are 4-17-1 ATS when the total is upward of 42. 10* (482) New York Jets

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our Sunday Star Attraction. This line has surprised a few with Chicago actually being favored in this game and the early money has proven that with this line opening at 3 and being bet down to a point as of Tuesday afternoon. The Bears are a team still in transition but the signs are pointing up and namely, those of quarterback Justin Fields. He took some early lumps but last season, he showed what he is capable of. He played his best against the best as he had a 103.4 passer rating against playoff teams last year which was 19.22 points better than his total 2022 rating and also 23.7 points better than his career passer rating of 79.7. Green Bay is not a playoff team but still a good team and a step up in the division. And now he has D.J. Moore to throw to. With Aaron Rodgers and his 24-5 record against Chicago departed, this is the chance for the Bears to finally strike and why not right out of the gate. The Packers have a solid roster and are expected to contend in the NFC North based on the odds but actually have only a one game higher win total than the Bears at 7.5. The Wild Card here obviously is Trey Lance who is taking over at quarterback and all indications are that he is ready but is he ready for Game One on the road in a brutal environment? We say not yet. While the Bears defense was bad last season at No. 31 in yards per play, they will be better, yet on the other side, Green Bay was not much better at No. 28. 10* (470) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Rams went through an injury plagued season last year and bottomed out at 5-12 after winning the Super Bowl. The numbers are calling for Los Angeles to not be good once again as it has a win total of just 6.5 and is at +1,000 to win the NFC West but this could very well be a surprise team, that is if they can stay healthy. They are unfortunately most likely going to be down Cooper Kupp in this one with his hamstring injury but the offense should be just fine with a healthy Matthew Stafford at quarterback and good replacements behind Kupp along with the rebound of Cam Akers. Seattle was a bad team defensively and while it brought in some good pieces, there is still a lot of questions after finishing No. 23 in yards per play. Overall, Seattle was a pleasant surprise last season but there should be regression and that should come from quarterback Geno Smith as potential success this season is for him to at least replicate what he did last season. But he faded down the stretch with over half of his 11 interceptions coming in the last six games. He completed 64 percent or more of his passes in all of his first 12 games but did so just once in his last five. He won Comeback Player of the Year with no expectations but now the pressure is on. The Rams defense is getting younger, quicker, and it should be stronger as long as the rotation up front is better around Aaron Donald. 10* (477) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Divisional Game of the Month. We are going to the first lined game of the schedule with Carolina heading to Atlanta in a divisional opener. This number is where it typically stands for a divisional game although it has gone up a half-point in some places but that should not be a factor here. Atlanta is coming off consecutive 7-10 seasons under coach Arthur Smith, who has stated that there has been noticeable energy and confidence throughout the summer and the locker room atmosphere is different and in a good way. The Falcons have made improvements, most notably on defense where they were No. 27 overall and No. 23 in points allowed as they signed safety Jessie Bates III, defensive linemen David Onyemata and Calais Campbell and linebacker Kaden Elliss. Offensively, Desmond Ridder has the job at quarterback after making four starts last season with each one getting progressively better. He has the weapons including rookie running back Bijan Robinson who is expected to be a playmaker. Carolina is starting fresh with new head coach Frank Reich and a rookie starter at quarterback in Bryce Young. He is surrounded by several recently added signees in running back Miles Sanders, tight end Hayden Hurst and receivers DJ Chark and Adam Thielen. The issue is Young is still a rookie and going back over a decade, rookie quarterbacks on the road are 21-120-1. The Panthers defense is good but below average and that will not be enough here. 10* (454) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our Sunday Signature Enforcer. The Vikings were one of the positive surprises in the league last season as they ended up 13-4 and won the NFC North by four games and there is definitely going to be regression. The line dictates they start right where they left off but the problem is where they left off was not good as they fell at home to the Giants in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs and that was probably a truer indication of the teams than its regular season record. Minnesota was 11-0 in one score games last season and it won seven of those games by less than what it is laying here and the Vikings finished the season No. 1 in NFL Luck Ratings and yes that is an actual thing. The offense revolves around wide receiver Justin Jefferson with quarterback Kirk Cousins getting the ball to him as much as possible and the addition of rookie Jordan Addison will aide in the loss of Adam Theilen. The loss of Dalvin Cook is significant as the running game is unproven. Defensively, Minnesota was horrible as it finished No. 30 in yards per play allowed. Tampa Bay can benefit from that with Baker Mayfield taking over at quarterback. No, he has not been good but he has been put in some bad situations with revolving coaches and coordinators and has plenty of weapons here. Defensively, Tampa Bay finished 11th in opponent EPA per play last season and should remain strong in 2023 with a top front seven unit. Overinflated line. 10* (461) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the SAN DIEGO ST. AZTECS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. UCLA is coming off a win over Coastal Carolina by 14 points that took a 13-0 fourth quarter to get it done but it was sloppy as the Bruins won the yardage battle by only 76 total yards while throwing three interceptions from their quarterback due as neither Ethan Garbers or Dante Moore took charge of the offense. While a lot of teams simply play fast which makes them immune to the new play clock rules, UCLA does not as they are more methodical and head coach Chip Kelly voice his displeasure for the rule change and this could be an issue in the early stages of the season until they get into that comfort zone. The Bruins hit the road in a tough environment as big favorites where they cannot be trusted at this point. San Diego St. snuck past of Ohio in its opener and what looked like a cakewalk last week against Idaho St. as a 34-point favorite turned into a closer than expected game as the Aztecs won by just six points. The Bengals did score a garbage touchdown with under a minute left but it was uninspiring and can be chalked up to a lookahead to this game. The passing game has been nonexistent as San Diego St. threw for only 85 yards against Idaho St. after throwing for just 164 yards against Ohio but Jalen Mayden has gone 30-46 so the efficiency is there, just nothing being broken away. That should come in time and that could be here after Grayson McCall went 27-42 for 271 yards but had two costly interceptions. Live underdog with a lot of points to work with. 10* (324) San Diego St. Aztecs

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Minnesota escaped with a win against Nebraska as it benefitted from two late turnovers by the Huskers that led to the final 10 points of the game to secure the backdoor win. The Gophers were able to stop the Nebraska passing game, holding it to 114 yards through the air but the other three facets were bad. Minnesota allowed 181 yards rushing on 37 carries (4.9 ypc) while its own running game was nonexistent as it rushed for 55 yards on 25 carries (2.2 ypc) so that alone should have put them on the wrong side of the scoreboard. The Gophers had to replace four-year starter Tanner Morgan at quarterback and it showed. Athan Kaliakmanis threw for 196 yards which is not dreadful but he was only 24-44 and threw a pick. Eastern Michigan finished 9-4 last season and was co-champions of the MAC West and the Eagles are in the conversation of contending in the division again. They are coming off an uninspiring win over Howard last week as they built a 28-6 lead and let the gas off following a pair of kickoff returns for touchdowns. Granted, that can skew a score but it also skewed the stats as the Eagles were outgained overall because of that as those two scores took possessions away from the offense. The Eagles have the second rated secondary in the MAC which is bad news for the weak Minnesota passing game, to go along with the best special teams in the conference and those two intangibles alone can sway an entire game and with this line, we have a ton to play with. 10* (347) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the RICE OWLS for our CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. Rice hung around for a while at Texas last week as it was down just 16-3 at halftime but the athletes of the Longhorns took over with a 21-0 third quarter and the Owls fell 37-10 but were able to stay within the big number. They are back home for this rivalry game and take a big step down in class while still catching a big number. Despite going 5-7 last season, they were able to participate in a bowl game because there were not enough qualified teams to fill the 41 bowls and Rice topped the list of 5-7 teams on Academic Progress Rate. The Owls have 15 starters back so there is plenty of experience and they added former blue chip quarterback J.T. Daniels who played at Georgia and West Virginia and while he was not good last week, he will get there in his second game. Houston escaped with a 17-14 win over UTSA despite getting outgained 417-334 as it benefitted from a 3-0 turnover edge that led to a 14-point swing. Allowing that many yards and few amount of points is an anomaly so it was a complete misleading final score. Only five starters return to an offense that averaged 36.1 ppg and 456 ypg and the opening game numbers showed that as it was bailed out. The Cougars were horrible defensively and lost eight of their nine top tacklers and while they allowed only 14 points, it should have been much worse. They are arguably the better team but not by much if at all and this line is not pairing up with that. 10* (358) Rice Owls

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our CFB Star Attraction. Here we have two teams coming off opposite results and the line is reflecting that as this line has flipped favorites from two weeks ago. We played against Boise St. last week as it was overmatched against Washington in the 56-19 loss. They head back to Boise for their home opener and it will be a test for sure the Broncos still possess one of the best home fields in the country and this is just the third time in the last decade plus they have been home underdogs. The Broncos allowed 490 yards passing which was what was expected with a young secondary against an elite quarterback on the road. Offensively, the Broncos bring back quarterback Taylen Green who had a solid yet unspectacular season but does have solid running ability and looked decent at times last week with 244 yards passing but overall it was not great. Eight additional starters are back and they face a weaker defense this week. UCF rolled over Kent St. which is arguably the worst team in the FBS (preseason rank 132 of 133 teams) so take it for what it is worth. The Knights could not be stopped offensively as they racked up 723 total yards but John Rhys Plumlee still threw two interceptions against that defense and heads to a tough place. The defense was pretty good last year and have seven starters back but benefitted from an easy early schedule where they allowed only 14.3 ppg in their first six games but gave up 30.6 ppg in the final eight games against decent and not even great offenses. 10* (382) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN as part of our CFB Chalk Three-Pack. North Texas came up small for us last week and that was a bad read on California which has definitely improved. The Mean Green have made it to three straight bowl games and with 15 starters back, they will be better than what we saw last week. They hired Eric Morris as the new head coach and he comes over after leading the Washington St. offense last season and he will be bringing in a more spread out attack. North Texas has to replace quarterback Austin Anue but it is not a big downgrade with ULM transfer Chandler Rogers taking over. Helping him out is the return of the entire offensive line, ranked preseason No. 1 in the AAC, and the top six rushers as well as leading receiver Roderic Burns. They go from facing a Pac 12 team to a doormat team from C-USA. We have seen this line come down from opening because of the blowout loss from North Texas and not because Florida International has done anything special. The Panthers have played two games as they lost the opener at Louisiana Tech by only five points which may look good but they were outgained 450-182 as they benefitted from turnovers and the inability of the Bulldogs to covert which led to five field goal attempts. They followed that up with a 14-12 win over Maine of the FCS where they were outgained again 378-305. While a switch at quarterback led to 292 yards passing, Keyone Jenkins was just 15-30 and on the flip side, they were outrushed 165-13 (4.0-0.5). Not a good look. 10* (373) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS as part of our CFB Chalk Three-Pack. Ohio is coming off a win over Long Island last week following a Week 0 loss against San Diego St. and it was not a pretty victory. The Bobcats won 27-10 which did not come close to covering the 34-point spread and while the defense did its job, the offense was putrid as they gained only 303 total yards. They relied on the running game as they threw the ball only 15 times and that was due to a lack of confidence. Ohio lost quarterback Kurtis Rourke after he played only two series against San Diego St. in its opener and he was absent last week which puts the Bobcats in a tough situation here. Backups C.J. Harris and Parker Navaro cannot win games with their arms as there is little trust. Rourke could possibly go here but they might not chance it with a massive revenge game next week against Iowa St. and they do not want to further risk him heading into MAC season where they are expected to make a championship run. Florida Atlantic was two points away from bowl eligibility last season as it lost its final game to Western Kentucky 32-31 to finish 5-7 and good things are expected this season with a trip to the AAC Championship in play. The Owls have 18 starters back and are coming off a 42-20 win over Monmouth as they let up the gas in the third quarter in a very balanced offensive attack where they rushed for 213 yards and threw for 280 yards behind a great performance from Nebraska transfer Casey Thompson. Lay it early if possible before the official Rourke decision. 10* (368) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES as part of our CFB Chalk Three-Pack. UAB welcomed in the Trent Dilfer era with a 35-6 win over North Carolina A&T and it was a game where the Blazers knew what was coming with the Aggies running the ball 41 times while throwing it only eight times and with a talent discrepancy, they were no match. Things will be a lot tougher this week as they not only face a strong FBS opponent but one that will bring a new element. The jury is still out after facing a team from the FCS as UAB has a roster full of questions as it brings back only seven starters overall from last season, three on offense and four on defense. Jacob Zeno was spectacular at quarterback last week going 38-41 for 291 yards and three touchdowns but he will have a much bigger test to overcome here as his inexperienced line that came into the season with only 11 total starts could be overwhelmed. It is a short line as this is a public team with the known name of Dilfer and past success but this is a rebuilding year. Georgia Southern blanked the Citadel 34-0 to win its opener and it also goes up in class but it is not a huge leap to a weak FBS team. Ironically, the Eagles also faced a team that threw it only eight times so the secondary will get a challenge it has not seen yet but should be more than up to the task. Offensively, the Eagles moved from the option to a more spread offense last season and it worked and now David Brin is at quarterback and he looked good and should once again behind one of the best lines in the conference. 10* (370) Georgia Southern Eagles

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. UTSA killed us last week as it lost in Houston 17-14 in a game it should have won but mistakes cost the roadrunners. They outgained the Cougars 417-334 and that advantage would normally cover any 2.5-point spread handicapping turnovers is nearly impossible and it came from an unexpected source. Quarterback Frank Harris is in his seventh season and holds more than 30 team records, including passing yards, passing touchdowns and total offense but he cost them the game as he tossed three interceptions on his first three drives of the second half. The first came at the Houston 22-yard line and the last led to the eventual winning touchdown for the Cougars. It is safe to say, he is ready to make amends for that especially in their home opener where local philanthropist Harvey E. Najim purchased 7,100 tickets to make this place full. Texas St., not Colorado, is coming off the biggest upset last week as it went to Baylor and defeated the Bears by 11 points as a 27-point underdog. The Bobcats were outgained by 83 yards as the defense allowed 524 yards but forced four field goal attempts as Baylor was not clutch and also committed two turnovers. That victory coupled with the UTSA loss is keeping this line down even though it has been bet up slightly since opening. More shocking is the fact that Texas St. has been picked to finish dead last in the SBC as it has only 11 starters back and is working with a ton of transfers. now it is time for UTSA to roll. 10* (342) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Overreaction or underrated? Maybe it is a little bit of both for Colorado as it stunned TCU last week as a three-touchdown underdog and we are seeing upwards of a 12-point line swing as the Buffaloes were +8.5 just two weeks ago at MGM. Colorado won with 87 new players on the roster and while it was a big upset, a lot of the blame has to go on the Horned Frogs who had to replace a ton from their playoff team of last season. With the victory, the Buffaloes have entered the AP Top 25 which is a joke to begin with and this is a typical overreaction. The line will be big behind Colorado at the ticket window and we are already seeing 80 percent of the money on the Buffaloes and this is before the majority of the public has put their money in. Nebraska is coming off a loss at Minnesota in a game it could have and should have won. The Huskers had a 295-251 yardage advantage including 181-55 on the ground but were -3 in turnovers. Two of those turnovers came in the last five minutes of the game right around midfield when Nebraska had a 10-3 lead and those led to the final 10 points for the Gophers. It was a very disappointing loss for the Huskers and head coach Matt Rhule in his debut but they will come off the mat and be ready while Colorado is still celebrating. The scheduling is big as well as the Huskers will have had a couple extra days to get ready while Colorado is playing on a normal schedule coming off an up and down game in extremely hot and humid weather. 10* (317) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Kickoff Winner. This is an intriguing opening night matchup with the reining Super Bowl Champions against one of the top sleeper teams coming into the season. Kansas City won its final five regular season games to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC and rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit against the Eagles to claim its second Super Bowl in four years and there is little reason to believe they will not be in the running again. The number is fairly big in this matchup but giving head coach Andy Reid this much time to prepare, the Chiefs will be ready. Counting just the regular season and excluding the COVID year, Kansas City is 28-5 at home and will no doubt want to make a statement. The Lions will want to make their own statement as well as they are hyped up for a big season and are the favorites to win the NFC North at +140 and fourth in the NFC at +1,100 to win the conference. Detroit closed strong last season with wins in eight of its last 10 games but only three of those wins were against playoff teams and two of those were at home. Early money has come in on the Lions dropping this line from 7 to 6.5 in some places and that is under the key number we want if attainable. We have the Super Bowl hangover in play as past champions have struggled to make the playoffs the following season in a lot of cases but it does not start with the opening game. We do not expect the Chiefs to miss the playoffs anyway and they fall into the great spot of hosting this game. Since the inception of the NFL Kickoff Game where the defending Super Bowl Champions host the opening Thursday night game, with two exceptions in 2013 (Ravens scheduling conflict) and 2019 (Bears/Packers NFL 100th anniversary game), the defending champions have gone 15-3 although one of those losses was last season with the Rams. 10* (452) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the DUKE BLUE DEVILS for our CFB Monday signature Enforcer. After finishing no worse than No. 3 in the final CFP rankings for six straight years, the Tigers finished No. 19 and No. 7 the last two seasons and they are ready to get back to the top. Clemson is ranked No. 9 in the preseason AP Poll and is the slight favorite to win the ACC but nothing is guaranteed and it is being overpriced because of what should be the norm. The Tigers bring back a ton this season after going 11-3 and they are finally settled at the quarterback spot with Cade Klubnik taking over for the inconsistent D.J. Uiagalelei who transferred out to Oregon St. But it will not be a seamless transition as two of the top receivers are gone but he is behind a very strong offensive line. Clemson regressed defensively but should get back to its dominance but this is not an easy test. Duke put together a 9-4 season last year and some will think of it as a fluke because it was considered a soft schedule but teams cannot dictate who they play, it just comes to them and the Blue Devils took care of business. The four losses were all by one possession and by just 16 points combined so it could have been even better. Duke did benefit from a +16 turnover margin and that tends to trend back toward the mean the following season but there is more than enough to make up for that. The Blue Devils have 18 starters back including 10 on offense led by quarterback Riley Leonard who grades out as the second best quarterback in the ACC heading into the season. The defense improved by 17.7 ppg and nearly 170 ypg from 2021 and that can be attributed to the defensive mind of head coach Mike Elko. 10* (236) Duke Blue Devils

This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our CFB Sunday Star Attraction. Head coach Brian Kelly took over an LSU program with no expectations and led them to a 10-4 season. This team is loaded with experience and talent and this first game will be a true indication of where it has come. Quarterback Jayden Daniels led the way last season as he threw for over 2,900 yards and 17 touchdowns while rushing for 885 yards and 11 touchdowns. One issue that has to be addressed is pass protection as LSU was the second worst in the SEC in sacks allowed but four starters are back and it will be better. The remaining top four rushers are all back, although John Emery is out here, and the Tigers added Logan Diggs from Notre Dame where he ran for 822 yards. The Tigers have improved defensively each of the last two years and are stacked for improvement again. Florida St. is getting a lot of sleeper CFP love and rightfully so. The Seminoles closed out last season with six straight wins, are right behind Clemson at +155 to win the ACC and have entered this season ranked No. 8 in the preseason AP Poll. Quarterback Jordan Travis was Second Team ACC last season and is exceptional but he lost a lot of production from his receiving corps and while the transfer portal will help, that could take some time and the tigers will be keying in on Johnny Wilson. The offensive line is solid but this will be the toughest defense it sees all season. The Seminoles improved dramatically on defense last season but had a tough time against the run and that will be a problem here. LSU was 10-1 when going for 140 yards and Florida St. allowed at least that six times. 10* (231) LSU Tigers

This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS for our CFB Saturday Signature Enforcer. Tulane had a magical season in 2022 as it went 12-2, tied with the 1998 team for most wins in school history, culminated by an amazing comeback in the Cotton Bowl against USC. We see a regression for sure and while it will not be same as that 1999 team that went 3-8, the Green Wave caught a lot of breaks last year catching some teams at the right place at the right time. Six starters are back on offense including Second Team AAC quarterback Michael Pratt who was sensational but all of his playmakers from last season are gone. The defense will be a solid unit once again with eight starters back but they face a really tough opening test. After finishing last season No. 9 in the final AP Poll, they come in No. 24 this season and while polls can be meaningless, it shows regression there as well. South Alabama finished 10-2 during the regular season last year, losing the two games to UCLA and eventual SBC Champion Troy by a combined five points. The Jaguars will be contenders again as they bring back nine starters on each side of the ball where both units dominated throughout. Quarterback Carter Bradley returns and despite setting the school record for passing yards in a season, he was only Fourth Team SBC but is preseason Second Team this year behind Grayson McCall. Six of his top seven receivers are back as well as the top three rushers along with four of five offensive linemen so yes they are loaded. The defense had its best showing in a decade and are extremely experienced and should be even better. 10* (219) South Alabama Jaguars

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Game of the Week. Seeing Houston as a home underdog is going to have many scrambling to get on the Cougars but it looks like it is going to be a tough season. After going 12-2 in 2021, the Cougars opened last season in the top 25 with some big expectations only to finish a disappointing 8-5. To their credit, they did suffer two overtime losses but on the flip side, Houston won half of its games by only one possession and that was with having First Team AAC quarterback Clayton Tune who is now in the NFL. Only five starters return to an offense that averaged 36.1 ppg and 456 ypg and taking the place of Tune will be Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith who is talented but turns the ball over and also gone are the two top receivers from last season. The Cougars were horrible defensively and lost eight of their nine top tacklers. That is good news for UTSA which is the preseason favorite in the AAC following the last two seasons where it went a combined 23-5. The Roadrunners are loaded again with eight starters back on both sides of the ball. They have the best quarterback in the conference in Frank Harris who is back for his seventh season, yes seventh, where he holds more than 30 team records, including passing yards, passing touchdowns and total offense. He does lose his top receiver but the next four are all back as it leading rusher Kevorian Barnes who was also a First Team player despite being a freshman playing only seven games. The offensive line is deep and there will be no drop off from their 36 ppg average each of the last two seasons. 10* (211) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. North Texas has not been able to get over .500 since 2018 which led to head coach Seth Littrell being let go after seven seasons but it is not a do over. The Mean Green have made it to three straight bowl games and with 15 starters back, the cupboard is not bare. They hired Eric Morris as the new head coach and he comes over after leading the Washington St. offense last season and he will be bringing in a more spread out attack. North Texas has to replace quarterback Austin Anue but it is not a big downgrade with ULM transfer Chandler Rogers taking over. Helping him out is the return of the entire offensive line, ranked preseason No. 1 in the AAC, and the top six rushers as well as leading receiver Roderic Burns. One intangible is Morris knows the opposing defense and shredded them last season for 343 yards passing. California should be improved after three straight losing seasons including a 4-8 record last season. The Golden Bears lost some close games and they bring back 15 starters but being favored on the road by this many points after going 1-12 in their last 13 road games is a bit aggressive. Jack Plummer was great at quarterback last season but he is off to Louisville and California will have to find a new starter for a second straight season and there is no one competing that has been in this system. The defense does bring back nine starters but they were horrible last season, allowing 27.8 ppg and nearly 430 ypg and will not have much to go off of here. North Texas can easily win outright with the points being a premium. 10* (214) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. A first look at this number will put a lot of people on Boise St. getting over two touchdowns especially with what the Broncos did last season and expectations for this season. However, those expectations are in the very below average MWC and they will likely start the season 0-2 before facing FCS North Dakota as they are overmatched here. Boise St. ended up 10-4 last season but the schedule played a big part in that as of those 10 wins, seven were games in which they were favored by double digits so those were inflated. Offensively, the Broncos bring back quarterback Taylen Green who had a solid yet unspectacular season but does have solid running ability. Eight additional starters are back but lighting it up here will be a challenge. Defensively, they were No. 5 in passing defense so it looks as though they could challenge the Huskies but faced hardly any above average passing teams and have only five starters back on the entire defense. Washington finished 11-2 last season with the two losses coming back-to-back on the road at UCLA and Arizona St. by eight and seven points respectively, closed last season with seven straight wins and finished No. 8 in the AP Poll. The Huskies come into this season No. 10 in the preseason AP Poll and will again be in the hunt in the loaded Pac 12. Quarterback Michael Penix was second in the country in passing yards and led an offense that improved by 18.2 ppg and 196 ypg from 2021 and he has his top five receivers back. He should have no problem lighting this defense up. 10* (198) Washington Huskies

This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Temple went just 3-9 for a second straight season but the Owls improved on both sides of the ball from 2021 and four of the losses last year were by one possession. They should continue to improve as they bring back 16 starters that includes seven on offense led by quarterback EJ Warner, the son of Kurt. He was the AAC Freshman of the Year after throwing for over 3,000 yards on a 61 percent completion percentage clip and while he did throw 12 interceptions, half of those were in his first four career starts. He loses his top receiver but will get transfer help and has an experienced and improved offensive line. The Owls will be stronger defensively with nine starters back and get a perfect first opponent. Akron had only one win last season against an FBS opponent and while the Zips also improved on both sides of the ball from 2021, but this is still a big work in progress. Offensively, the Zips bring back quarterback D.J. Irons, who is also the leading returning rusher and while he was not awful, he had no protection. They were the worst in the conference in tackles for loss allowed and No. 118 in the country in sacks allowed. It is a big work in progress on defense with a revamped defensive line and not much experience at linebacker. Akron is tied with Kent St. in the MAC for the worst combined ratings of the offensive and defensive lines and that is where it all starts. Temple was favored only once last season against an FBS opponent and easily covered so laying a number with the Owls is not an issue. 10* (172) Temple Owls

This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. After four straight bowl appearances from 2012-2015, Bowling Green went south quickly with six straight losing seasons and no bowl games but the Falcons turned things around last season. They did finish with a losing record but that was due to a bowl loss and they are building on that heading into this season. The offense has been bad for years and while they did show improvements last season, they should take a big step this season. Bowling Green brought in quarterback Conner Bazelak through the transfer portal after being a two-year starter at Missouri and for most of last year at Indiana, throwing for 7,370 career yards with 36 touchdowns. He should be able to sling it around with good protection from the offensive line which can open up the running game. Liberty had its fourth straight winning season a year ago but there could be some regression this season despite what looks like a very easy schedule. Gone is head coach Hugh Freeze to Auburn and in comes former Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell who is very solid but there are numerous questions at both of the coordinator positions. The Flames have to replace 14 starters and while there is experience at quarterback with great depth, Chadwell will not have Grayson McCall and his remarkable season around. Defensively, it is close to a total overhaul from a unit that led the nation in tackles for loss and was third in sacks and now has to replace eight starters. This line is too big and based too much on the past and not the present. 10* (161) Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Louisville has a new head coach as Scott Satterfield left to take over at Cincinnati and the Cardinals brought in Jeff Brohm from Purdue which is basically a lateral move. It might seem like a great hire considering the Boilermakers won the Big Ten West but they did it with an easy schedule and five of the seven FBS wins were by one possession. Back to Louisville, it has a project on its hands, namely the offense. This was a very balanced offense and Brohm is bringing in a more wide open passing attack which could flourish later in the season but not now. Jack Plummer takes over at quarterback after coming over from California where he was solid but there are unknowns at receiver as the top two and four of the top five are gone while three starters have to be replaced along the offensive line. Georgia Tech opened the season 1-3 and Geoff Collins, who entered the season on the hot seat, was let go and it was pretty evident he was a bog part of the recent year struggles as the Yellow Jackets rallied around Brent Key to close the season 4-4. Going 5-7 by playing the No. 6 ranked schedule in the country is not horrible and while they are in the same boat as Louisville in terms of returning starters, the same systems are still in place. Quarterback Haynes King won the starting job and while he is new to a system as well, it is not as pass heavy and the running game should be strong. This is especially the case with four starting offensive linemen returning. While hot a true home game, this is a significant neutral field number. 10* (154) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our CFB Thursday Ultimate Underdog. It was a disaster of a start for Connecticut and first year head coach Jim Mora in his first season in Storrs as it lost its first four FBS games by an average of 33.8 ppg. The Huskies then turned a corner as they defeated a very good Fresno St. team to start a 5-1 run and they became bowl eligible for the first time since 2015. While they lost to Marshall, the added practice time was very beneficial and they bring back 17 starters. The defense has eight coming back on a unit that made dramatic improvements from the previous four seasons. Joe Fagnano on the starting quarterback job over Zion Turner and this is pretty significant. He was a multi-year starter at Maine, where he threw for more than 5,600 yards and he is familiar with the Huskies system as their new offensive coordinator is Nick Charlton, who was the Black Bears head coach from 2019 through 2021. NC State is coming off a disappointing season as it closed 4-5 following a 4-0 start and while it is not a complete rebuild, many key parts have to be replaced. Quarterback was an issue last season but there is help with Brennan Armstrong coming over from Virginia and reuniting with offensive coordinator Robert Anae so this should be a potent part of the offense but later in the season. The Wolfpack lost three of their top four receivers while the offensive line will be a work in progress, coming in ranked No. 10 out of 14 teams in the ACC. The defense finished No. 20 overall and No. 15 in scoring but six starters have to be replaced. NC State rolled over Connecticut 41-10 last season so there is revenge in play for the Huskies and the 23-point line swing from that game is telling us the story as well. 10* (144) Connecticut Huskies

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS for our CFB Game of the Month. Year one for head coach Timmy Chang did not go as planned and while not much was expected, a 3-10 season was a big disappointment. Things should be better as after a rough start where the Warriors lost their first four FBS games by 53, 32, 46 and 19 points, four of the last six losses were by a touchdown or less so they became more competitive. They have only five starters back on offense but the quarterback, two starting receivers and a key running back return with the offensive line needing the biggest overhaul. That is not a huge concern in this matchup, however. Defensively, Hawaii was not good but has nine starters back from a unit that improved dramatically down the stretch. Vanderbilt was a win shy from its first bowl games since 2018 and with a decent group of 17 starters back, the Commodores can make some improvements. But they do not have any business laying a number this big as they have been a double-digit favorite over FBS competition just twice the last four seasons and failed to cover both, losing one outright. The point being, this is not a program accustomed to this spot. Playing in the SEC is not optimal for Vanderbilt and while this is a big step down in competition, the intangibles are not in their favor. Offensively, the passing game will be fine but quarterback A.J. Swann is just a sophomore and they have to replace their top two running backs and that is bad news for a team that likes to grind it out. There is experience on defense but nothing spectacular. 10* (311) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Opening Kickoff Winner. The hype behind Notre Dame is pretty typical every year but this season it is not getting as much love. The Irish come in ranked No. 13 in the preseason AP Poll after finishing No. 21 in the final CFP Poll last year which followed up a pair of top five finishes. This is the lowest preseason ranking since 2017 when they were unranked but expectations and high and this is Notre Dame with the name alone adding value to the opponent. The big gain for the Irish is Wake Forest transfer quarterback San Hartman who should flourish but it could take a bit with five of the top six receivers gone. They will be solid defensively again with eight starters back but the first game presents an unknown. After 15 full seasons at Navy, head coach Ken Niumatalolo was let go and defensive coordinator Brian Newberry was promoted in hopes of turning around a program that is coming off three straight losing seasons. This recent run is another cause for this inflated line as that is all there is to go off of when in reality, the Midshipmen have some hidden advantages. The main one is the fact Notre Dame does not have much to look at for preparation as while the system is not dramatically changing, there are new wrinkles in the offense coming from Grant Chesnut, who was hired as offensive coordinator after having the same position at Kennesaw St. for nine years. Different looks and more of a pass game can keep Notre Dame off balance. Excellent value for the 2023 season opening game from Ireland. 10*(299) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Super Bowl Dominator. The Eagles are the very popular choice to win this game as it is hard to find many people liking the Chiefs but we are one of those with a lot of that based on this line. It opened as a pickem and moved to -1.5 and has remained steady despite two-thirds of the money coming in on the Eagles and we are using that nonmovement as a small factor. The key to this game is in the trenches where the Eagles are getting all of the pub to have the advantage but that is not really the case. Two years ago, the Chiefs were undone by the Buccaneers pass rush and many expect the same here as the Eagles led the league in sacks but the Chiefs have upgraded their offensive line since then and are an underrated unit heading into this game. They led the league in pass block win rate this season at 76 percent so they can neutralize Philadelphia along the line of scrimmage. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback they have faced in the postseason by a wide margin and while there is concern about his mobility due to his sprained ankle, he should be just fine and can find other ways to avoid constant pressure. On the other side, the Chiefs were second in sacks so they can also generate pressure against one of the best offensive lines in the league. There are no other secrets in any other key areas or injury concerns that will deter the numbers that are coming in. While Philadelphia had the better regular season and has dominated the postseason, it was not tested by the Giants or the 49ers who were down to their fourth string quarterback and during the regular season, it faced the second easiest schedule in the NFL so if it played even an average schedule, the results may have been different. 10* (101) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our AFC Championship Enforcer. While it would have been ideal to play this earlier in the week when the Chiefs were +2.5 but not everyone would have had access to that number and it was fairly certain that this line would come back to at least close to even based on injury news. That is exactly what has happened is that all reports stated the Patrick Mahomes has had very few limitations toward the end of the week and took every snap on Friday during practice. Even though the Chiefs have flipped back to the favorite, there is plenty of line value on then here at home. The Bengals were getting six points at Buffalo last week and now the number has dipped drastically against a better team despite any injury concerns. Part of the reason for this is that Cincinnati has crushed this season in this price range as it is 12-1 ATS when favored by less than a touchdown or an underdog and that includes a win here in Kansas City in Week 13 and that brings up a narrative that has been all over the place this week stating that Joe Burrow is 3-0 against Mahomes and do not think so a second the Chiefs are using that in their own favor. Cincinnati formulated a great gameplan last week against Buffalo to compensate what was a big disadvantage along the offensive line as there were plenty of quick throws by Burrow to alleviate the pressure but with film from that, the Chiefs now have more to look at and get ready for. The Bengals also had an advantage with the snow as it is much tougher for defensive linemen to get their leverage which also slowed down the pass rush. Now they will be facing a Kansas City defense that registered 55 sacks this season, second to only Philadelphia in the league. While Sean McDermont did not formulate a good gameplan on offense against Cincinnati, rest assured Andy Reid will even though he has lost the last three matchups but all three of those were decided by a field goal so they could have gone either way. Now that we know Mahomes is at least 80-90 percent, the value is squarely on the better team at home. 10* (324) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFC Championship Dominator. The Eagles rolled the Giants in the Divisional Round and it was a mix of Philadelphia regaining its dominant form along with New York not being at the level we thought. They take a big step up in competition here but playing at home makes up for a lot of that and they are obviously laying a much smaller price this week. Philadelphia outgained the Giants by 189 total yards and did so without much trying later in the game when it was out of reach. The Eagles basically had one bad game the entire season when Jalen hurts was healthy and that was their only loss when he started which was against Washington and a lot of that came down to turnovers where they had four which led to the Commanders having a 2-1 edge in time of possession. The 49ers possess the No. 1 defense but the Eagles are not far behind at No. 2, trailing by less that a yard per game and they have the edge in this particular matchup. Philadelphia has the second highest pressure rate without blitzing in the NFL so Brock Purdy will be under constant stress all day. Purdy has been a great story as he is 8-0 in the eight games since coming in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo including 7-0 as a starter. Six of those games were at home with the two road games coming at Seattle and Las Vegas so this will be his first real test in a real environment. The 49ers escaped against Dallas last week as San Francisco capitalized on turnovers which kept the game close and they eventually pulled away in the fourth quarter. The 49ers struggled on offense as the Cowboys defense pretty much dictated the game throughout. They will have the same problems here as the Eagles will take out the middle of the field as this is where both teams excel and defense has advantage over offense when it comes to strength against strength. If there is one weakness of the 49ers defense, it is their struggles against mobile quarterbacks and while Hurts did not have a massive game on the ground, he did not have to and he looked healthy which is most important. 10* (322) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Playoff Game of the Year. We have a great situational matchup here favoring the 49ers and we can take advantage of a short line. Also, San Francisco has a big edge with two extra days of rest plus the travel aspect. We played against Dallas on Monday and that obviously ended up being a horrible call as Tampa Bay confirmed it was a fraud and the regular season was no deception. Give the Cowboys credit for playing one of their best games of the season on both sides of the ball but we can expect some regression here as teams coming off performances like that rarely repeat it unless they are an elite team and Dallas is not quite in that category. And now they step up in competition in a big way against the hottest team in the conference. This is the fourth straight road game for the Cowboys and the travel could have caught up especially with the cross country aspect in back-to-back weeks. Dallas had its best offensive performance since November but this is where the real regression will come into play as it faces the No. 1 defense in the league in both points allowed and total yards allowed. Seattle played well on Saturday to start the game as it actually took a lead into halftime against the 49ers but San Francisco put the pedal down in the second half as it scored 25 unanswered points before allowing a late garbage touchdown. While the defense is the strength of this team, the offense is hardly a liability. The 49ers amassed 505 yards of total offense against the Seahawks which was the most put up since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback and he is looking more comfortable each game. The Seahawks defense is dreadful so that had something to do with it but this team is loaded with talent around him which has certainly helped the transition. It is now 11 straight wins for the 49ers and in dominating fashion as they have outgained the opponent in 10 of those. San Francisco is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. 10* (318) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We see some great value with this line in what will be another very emotional home game for the Bills. This is a rematch of the canceled Monday night game that had the unfortunate and ultimately, inspiring moment going forward with Damar Hamlin and now Buffalo gets the Bengals at home at a relatively short price after also closing as a favorite on the road in that first matchup. The Bills got away with one as they won by a field goal despite dominating the Dolphins but were hurt by three turnovers, one that led to a fumble return for a touchdown. The offense did its normal thing and the defense allowed just 219 yards and while that was against a third string quarterback and it takes a big step up here, the matchup is in its favor. The Bengals had a very legitimate shot at losing to Baltimore and backup quarterback Tyler Huntley as they trailed for most of the game but took the lead for good on defensive lineman Sam Hubbard’s 98-yard fumble return touchdown for a 14-point swing. The Bengals were outgained 364-234 as they had no running game and Joe Burrow was unable to stretch the field as he had just 209 yards passing. There is more bad news for the offense as Cincinnati entered Sunday already without two of its five starting linemen due to injuries and lost left tackle Jonah Williams and the production of the offense was greatly impacted by that. The Ravens had nine players with a quarterback pressure after that and Buffalo had eight players record two-plus pressures against a mediocre Miami offensive line so the Bills have a huge edge here. The defense was bailed out by that fumble return and will nor face a totally different test here as Buffalo is ranked No. 2 in both total offense and scoring offense. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 70 and 95 rushing ypg and after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games going up against a team allowing between 95 and 125 rushing ypg. This situation is 108-62 ATS (63.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (316) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. We won with the Giants on Sunday and while a lot of that was playing against an overrated Vikings team, New York showed a lot of good things and deserve to be here. The Giants outgained Minnesota by 99 total yards and while they succeeded against a bad defense, this coaching staff can gameplan given the opponent as Brian Daboll has done an outstanding job in his first season as the head coach and he will have his team ready again. The overall numbers have not been great but they are a respectable No. 18 in total offense with a great rushing attack and they possess a defense that can play well in crunch time. While it was not an exceptional season for Daniel Jones, it was his best one of his career as he posted a career high 92.5 passer rating and while facing a much better defense, the fact that he did not play in the second meeting in Week 18 is an advantage. The Eagles cruised through the regular season with a 14-3 record and obviously two of those losses came with Jalen Hurts not playing and while he did return in the season finale against the Giants, he was not great as he put up a 65.1 passer rating. The Eagles did go vanilla in that game and while he gets extra rest, there is still a concern with his shoulder and his excellent running game could be deterred. This is a dominant team when fully healthy but they are down some key players on defense but the other big one is tackle Lane Johnson who is down with an abdominal injury and comes in as questionable and will clearly not be 100 percent if he can go. Coming off the bye, Philadelphia is going to be a big public play as some will perceive this line being a short one but it its last two home games with all starter in, it was favored by less over Tennessee and Green Bay. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after three consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 37-8 ATS (82.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (303) New York Giants

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Wildcard Game of the Month. Tampa Bay was probably the most underachieving team in the league this season and was fortunate to have played in the weakest division in the NFL. That being said, Tom Brady has excelled in these positions before and is battle tested that can will his team to a win. He is coming off his worst passer rating since coming to Tampa Bay but he has been sharper with the vertical attack of late with the exception of a pair of bad games against Cincinnati and San Francisco and we cannot put Dallas on those levels. The Buccaneers closed the season 1-6 against the number and that is playing into the fact it is an underdog in this game and while its 4-4 record at home is not great, it needs to be respected. Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen could be activated this week after missing the regular season with a knee injury and this would be a massive boost to the offensive line. Dallas is coming off a clunker in the season finale but it was just going through the motions so we can probably discount that. Still, the Cowboys have not been playing well with some close wins and in the last four victories, they have faced Matt Ryan, Davis Mills, Gardner Minshew and Joshua Dobbs and they have been outgained in three of their last four games. The Cowboys were solid at home with an 8-1 record but are just 4-4 on the road and are at a disadvantage at quarterback. Dak Prescott is currently playing the worst football of his career and he has tossed 15 interceptions this season despite playing only 12 games and he had an awful performance in the first meeting with Tampa Bay. Here, we play against favorites in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after a loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (152) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This line stinks. These teams played less than a month ago with the Vikings closing as a 4.5-point favorite as they won by three points on a last second 61-yard field goal and that result is partially dictating the line this week. Minnesota was outgained by 92 yards as it allowed 445 yards which has been the only time the Giants have eclipsed 400 yards in their last seven games as this defense is bad but New York was hurt by two costly turnovers. The Vikings have been outgained in six of their last nine games and they return home where they are 8-1 but seven of those wins were by only one possession with 11 of their 13 overall wins coming within that as well. They are the only team in NFL history that has at least 12 wins to go along with a negative point differential. The betting markets have caught up as Minnesota has dropped four of its last five games against the number. The Giants had nothing to play for last week against the Eagles, did not play most starters and still kept the game close. Brian Daboll has done an outstanding job in his first season as the head coach and he will have his team ready. The overall numbers have not been great but they are a respectable No. 18 in total offense with a great rushing attack and they possess the much better defense. While it was not an exceptional season for Daniel Jones, it was his best one of his career as he posted a career high 92.5 passer rating which was tied for No. 13 in the league and he was tied with, you guessed it, Kirk Cousins. His success can be credited to Daboll without question. Saquon Barkley had only 84 yards rushing in the first meeting but he ran it just 14 times and now faces a defense that has allowed an average of 138.7 ypg over the last six weeks. The Giants are 5-1 when Barkley gets 20 or more carries and that will definitely be the goal here as long as they do not get down big early. 10* (147) New York Giants

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. The Chargers closed the season with wins in four of their last five games with the loss being the meaningless Week 18 game against the Broncos. They did play starters longer than expected with came with mixed opinions but they did not lose any rhythm which is a big part. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been playing well over the second half of the season with a rating of 100 or higher in five of his last eight games and he presents a tough matchup for the Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars have faced Joshua Dobbs, Davis Mills and Zach Wilson over their last three games so they were not tested while allowing only 22 combined points in those games. On the season, Jacksonville finished No. 30 in DVOA and were one of just five teams that allowed 4,000 yards passing. Herbert was banged up earlier in the season and he has dealt with many key teammates missing time as well and the Chargers are relatively healthy heading into the postseason. He threw for 297 yards in the first meeting this season but he had broken ribs. Jacksonville meanwhile has won five straight games to get to this point with both sides of the ball playing well. A win over Dallas was very solid but the last three have come against the Jets, Texans and Titans which went a combined 4-20 over the last eight weeks and it took a fumble recovery for a touchdown to win last week. Trevor Lawrence has played well over the second half of the season as well but he was not sharp last week and is not as consistent as Herbert has been. Here, we play on teams revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss by seven points or less to a division rival. This situation is 65-28 ATS (69.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (143) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the TCU HORNED FROGS for our CFB Bowl Game of the Year. TCU is the surprise of the college football season and it continues to get no respect. Despite a 12-0 record, the Horned Frogs were underdogs in the Big 12 Championship because no one wants to bet on this team and while they lost, it took overtime in a game they outgained the Wildcats by 65 yards and were more impressive last week. Many thought of it to be a mismatch against Michigan even with its high-powered offense but they scored 51 points and put up 488 yards against one of the best defenses in the country which showed the Horned Frogs do belong. They obviously have another big test here against one of the best defenses in the country but possess one of the best offensive minds in college football in head coach Sonny Dykes who worked with the late, great Mike Leach at Texas Tech and turned around offenses in his stops before heading to TCU. In the last two games, the Georgia defense has given up 850 yards passing and it has been middle of the road all season at No. 52 overall. Georgia no doubt has a power offense of its own and the fact TCU allowed 45 points against Michigan is a concern but overall, the Horned Frogs held some very solid defenses from the Big 12 in check. The Horned Frogs had more wins over ranked opponents (6) than Georgia (4) and while the teams cannot dictate who they play in not giving Georgia the same amount off opportunities, the fact that they won those games tells a lot for TCU. Power rankings call for Georgia being a touchdown favorite here which shows an inflated line which was also the case against Michigan that unfortunately we did not take advantage of. One overlooked factor here is that Georgia had the advantage of playing the SEC Championship and the CFP Semifinals at Mercedes-Benz Stadium which is not too far from campus so there was hardly any travel and that has been the case for most of this season. Eight games were played away from Athens including four neutral sites that were all close by and the furthest trip was to Missouri and we all saw what almost happened there. This is not an end all be all aspect but counts some. 10* (287) TCU Horned Frogs

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Here is another easy scenario for Green Bay as a win and it is in the playoffs so the task at hand is to win its fifth straight game but the markets have adjusted here as well. The advanced line prior to the conclusion of the games last week had Green Bay -3 and it was quickly moved up because the Packers are going to be a big betting favorite this week and we are now catching value on the other side over a key number. In the Packers four victories, they were outgained in three of those as they only outyarded the Rams at home. Green Bay does nothing particularly well as it is ranked middle of the pack in all major statistical categories with the exception of its solid passing defense. The situation is a lot different for Detroit as it not only needs to win but also have Seattle lose earlier in the day. Because of this, the Lions will know their fate before kickoff but if Seattle wins, that does not mean they are going to pack in it. They might be disappointed once the news comes if the Seahawks are victorious, but they will be playing just as hard as this is a divisional rival and a chance to play spoiler and prevent the Packers from going to the playoffs. Teams do not pack it in in situations like this as players are still going all out for themselves, their contracts and their futures and Dan Campbell is not going down easy for anyone. This offense remains one of the best and keeps it in this one. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems off a win against a division rival, in January games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (459) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFC West Game of the Month. It is an easy scenario for Seattle but not in its own control as it has to win here and have the Packers lose to Detroit Sunday night so this is a must win and in the final week of the regular season, these must wins scenarios force the markets to make adjustments. The advanced line was Seattle -3 and after its victory last week to keep its playoff hopes alive, the line jumped considerably as the Seahawks are a must win team that the public will be all over. We played against them last week and the Jets offense could not get anything going while Seattle was able to rush for 198 yards which was very uncharacteristic of the New York defense and Seattle will be facing another strong rushing defense here. It has been an up and down run for Los Angeles since Baker Mayfield took over as the Rams are 2-2 following a loss last week against the Chargers but they continue to play hard and would like nothing more than to eliminate Seattle from playoff contention. The win over Las Vegas was followed up by a horrible road effort at Green Bay with the weather playing a role in that and despite the loss last week, the running game has gotten potent again as they have gained 158 and 166 yards on the ground the last two weeks. Comparing the line to last week against the Chargers, Los Angeles is getting just a half-point less against a team not on the same level as the Chargers. Value and contrarian makes Los Angeles the play here and the Rams could use a big boost going into the offense after a disappointing campaign. 10* (451) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. This is the lone game we are going against a non-playoff team as Arizona is trash right now. The Cardinals have lost six straight games and while the last two were by four points combined including one in overtime, those were against bad teams in Atlanta and Tampa Bay and were already dominated once in the earlier matchup. The loss of Kyler Murray, who has played in just 10 games, has been a big reason for the rough season but he was not playing that well when he was in the lineup. This is a big number to lay but the situation calls for it and is backed up by a great one noted at the end. The 49ers are still competing for seeding in the NFC as they can clinch the No. 1 spot with a win and an Eagles loss and while the latter is unlikely, these games are being played at the same time so there will be no reason to let up unless they are scoreboard watching in the second half but they could already be winning huge by that point. San Francisco has won nine straight games and wants to keep this momentum rolling into the postseason no matter where it sits in the standings. The 49ers have been outgained only once over this stretch thanks to a top two defense and a top five offense behind Brock Purdy and his 101.4 quarterback rating to go along with his 10:4 TD/INT ratio. Here, we play against underdogs of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after two or more consecutive losses, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 27-3 ATS (90 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (468) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This is the third instance of going against an overinflated line favoring a team that needs to win to have a chance to get to the postseason. Pittsburgh has made a late season push as it has won three straight games and five of their last six to get to 8-8 and not only to try and secure a playoff spot but also finish without a losing record, something that has never happened under head coach Mike Tomlin. The win last week over Baltimore was a good one but it was against a second string quarterback and the other four wins over this recent stretch were all against teams with a worst record than Cleveland. The defense has been solid as they have held their last three opponents to fewer than 300 total yards but are in a tricky spot here. It is tricky because they are facing Deshaun Watson who has not been good through five starts but is coming off his best game with a 122.5 passer rating against a solid Washington defense as he finally showed flashes of what he is capable of even though he threw the ball only 18 times. His ability to run can cause problems here as the Steelers have not faced a quarterback like this since facing Jalen Hurts in late October. The Browns were expected to have a not so great season without Watson for 11 games and that came to fruition but still possess the No. 6 rushing offense to go along with an above average defense. Here, we play against home favorites in a game involving two teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game after a game where they forced one or less turnovers. This situation is 69-35 ATS (66.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (461) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. Tennessee and Jacksonville have taken different routes in the second half of the season to get to this point where the Week 18 matchup decides the division. The Titans come in riding a six-game losing streak but three of those were one possession games while two of the blowouts were against Super Bowl contenders Philadelphia and Dallas and the sixth came against this Jacksonville team which adds some added juice even though that is not needed with what is on the line. While they have been outgained in all six of those games, only one, the game against the Eagles, was a complete domination and the other four were by just an average of 46.4 ypg so while the losses have accumulated, it has not been a complete implosion. Tennessee treated last week as basically a bye week as the game against Dallas meant nothing and it was still a game early in the fourth quarter so it comes in with a bunch of rested players which is at a perfect time. Joshua Dobbs gets the start at quarterback and he was not great but was able to move the ball vertically with no running game behind him and a healthy Derrick Henry along with a superior defense makes them a live dog here. Jacksonville meanwhile has won four straight games to get to this point with both sides of the ball playing well. A win over Dallas was very solid but the last two have come against the Jets and Texans which are a combined 2-12 over the last seven weeks. The play of Trevor Lawrence has been outstanding over the last eight weeks with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions although he did not throw a touchdown pass in either of the last two games. The overall offense has moved into the top ten but they are still facing a tough defense in a divisional game and based on recent results, the Jaguars number is overinflated. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (457) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our CFB Rose Bowl Winner. Utah will be out for some retribution following a loss in the Rose Bowl last season, falling by a field goal to Ohio St. and it has a good matchup here to do so. Penn St. and Utah both do a fantastic job of getting pressure on the quarterback, stopping the run and creating turnovers but it is Utah that has played the tougher schedule and is better equipped to handle it here. Utah is one of five Power 5 teams that rank in the top 20 in both total offense and defense and led the Pac 12 in both categories. The offense is balanced led by underrated quarterback Cam Rising who threw for 2,939 yards and 25 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while completing 66.2 percent of his passes. The Utes will be without leading rusher Tavion Thomas but they have great depth and will be fine with Ja'Quinden Jackson and Micah Bernard. Over the last two games, Jackson rushed for 222 yards on 9.7 ypc and five touchdowns while Bernard rushed for 179 yards on 7.8 ypc and two touchdowns. One huge asset the Nittany Lions have is a strong rushing defense that is ranked No. 14 in the country despite allowing a whopping 418 rushing yards against Michigan. That is key because Penn St. faced some horrible rushing teams besides that. It was a great season for Penn St. with its only losses coming against Michigan and Ohio St. and it backed into the Rose Bowl because those two teams both qualified for the CFP. The Nittany Lions possess a very balanced offense led by veteran quarterback Sean Clifford who numbers rival those of Rising but faced some poor defenses down the stretch. Utah is ranked No. 20 in total defense with a strong rushing defense of its own as it is ranked No. 16 against the run. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging between 190 and 230 rushing ypg and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game going up against teams allowing between 140 and 190 rushing ypg. This situation is 99-54 ATS (64.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (283) Utah Utes

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The betting market has caught up to the Vikings as they have dropped three straight against the number including the last two games where they won outright by a field goal but failed to win by margin. Minnesota is now an underdog for just the third time in their last 14 games and we see the value. The Vikings clinched the division two games back and still have an outside shot for the No. 1 seen in the NFC should they win out and the Eagles lose their last two games. They will know the Philadelphia result before this game kicks off but they are not going to rest anyone in this divisional game that has a lot of meaning on its own as they will rest starters in Week 18 should they lock up the No. 2 seed but keep in mind they also are out to hold off the 49ers who are one game back. The Packers, who were left for dead a few weeks ago, have gotten back into the playoff mix as they have won three straight games but two of those were against the Bears and Rams and the other against the imploding Dolphins. The offense has picked it up after a slow start but the Packers could be without one of their best weapons as Christian Watson is questionable with a hip injury as he has not practiced all week. The Vikings have the offense that can have success against the passing defense of Green Bay and a lot of that will be to utilize the running game as there are only two teams that have a worse adjusted rush defense EPA than the Packers and those are the Seahawks and Bears. Betting against Aaron Rodgers in these spots is never easy but the Vikings are the clear side. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (127) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Month. The Jets and Seahawks, both of which looked to be playoff locks at one point in the season, have fallen on hard times and this is a must win game for both teams. The Jets have to win here and win next week in Miami so a loss here and their chances are done. New York has lost four straight games and is in much better shape at this point from a roster standpoint as they gladly welcome back quarterback Mike White who missed the last two games with a rib injury after Zach Wilson basically buried the Jets over those last two games. In the two losses prior to that at Buffalo and at Minnesota, New York outgained both opponents and both were there for the taking and now they will be facing their fifth straight opponent that is in the playoffs or still alive for a spot and it is the worst team of the bunch. While the offense has struggled with the inconsistent quarterback play, the defense is as good as it gets, ranked No. 3 overall and No. 4 in points allowed. Seattle has lost three straight games, also against playoff or playoff contending teams, and it has been outgained in four of its last six games. this team has been overrated all season long and going into Week 17, the Seahawks are ranked No. 30 in net adjusted EPA, ahead of only the Cardinals and Bears. This is mainly based on the defense which has been atrocious from day one. They are raked No. 29 in both total defense and scoring defense and are equally bad in both areas. Seattle has a bottom-10 pass rush, which has attributed to the secondary being left on an island and the rushing defense is even worse where they are second to last in the league. Here, we play on road teams involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (123) New York Jets

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The second to final week of the regular season is usually very important for teams trying to make a playoff spot but that is not the case here. Similar to Tennessee on Thursday, the season for Jacksonville comes down to next week in its home game against the Titans which will decide the AFC South win or lose here. The Titans rested a lot of players against the Cowboys and while the Jaguars have not announced anything as of yet, it would not be surprising for Doug Pederson to pull players as to remain healthy as he has done so in the past. Jacksonville is a sell team right now as it has won and covered three straight games to improve to 7-8 and while it is playing well, it has benefitted from a Tennessee meltdown to get into this position. The Jaguars offense remains the strength behind a great second half from quarterback Trevor Lawrence but the defense is well below average to give the Texans offense a chance for some success. Houston snapped a nine-game losing streak with a win over Tennessee last week and this provides its final opportunity to pick up a win at home as it is 0-6-1 which includes six consecutive losses. It has been an expected difficult season for the Texans but to their credit, they have played hard through the first 16 weeks as they have covered three straight games against either playoff or potential playoff teams and while they could have packed it in long ago, they have not. They did catch a break last week facing Tennessee with a backup quarterback but they have had the Jaguars number with nine straight wins in this series and while some of that is meaningless, there are matchup edges. Here, we play against favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, playing a losing team. This situation is 50-20 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (114) Houston Texans

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Detroit was rolling along with three straight wins and victories in six of its last seven games before getting exposed by Carolina last week as it allowed 37 points against one of the worst offenses in the NFL to severely hurt its playoff chances. The Lions are now 7-8 which is tied with Seattle and Green Bay, a half-game behind Washington for the final wild card spot in the NFL and are now favored for just the fifth time this season and by far the most the points they have laid. The one huge liability last week was the rushing defense as they allowed the Panthers to rush for 320 yards on 43 carries (7.4 ypc) and now face a team where rushing offense is the strength. The Lions do possess a strong offense but with that defense, any team can hang around. Chicago has lost eight straight games following a 22-point loss to Buffalo last week in horrible playing conditions and it closes out a lousy season with a pair of divisional games including this spoiler attempt. The Bears have covered only once in their last six games which creates value and those are the streaks we love going against especially in a divisional matchup. Despite gaining just 80 yards on the ground last week against Buffalo, the Bears still possess the top ranked rushing offense in the NFL. That poses well here and even more so knowing they rushed for 258 yards in the first meeting that resulted in a one point loss after blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead that was aided by an interception returned for a touchdown by the Lions. Here, we play against home favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (115) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our CFB Nonconference Game of the Month. Not too often will you hear Alabama and line value uttered in the same sentence but that is the case in the Sugar Bowl. The Crimson Tide have been favored by double-digits in all but one game this season which was a true road game at Tennessee where they were favored by nine points. Now they are favored less than that on a neutral field in a game where they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder and with no opt outs, they are here to win and win big. Alabama is out to prove something after missing out on the College Football Playoff, which it did not deserve a spot, but it did in its own mind and that is motivation enough. The Crimson Tide offense is at full strength after averaging 40.8 ppg during the regular season, good for No. 4 in the nation. The Wildcats are a respectable No. 53 in the country in total defense at 365.8 ypg and in the two games they faced a high-powered offense against TCU, they allowed 38 and 28 points, and in the two other games they points, those were against two offenses not on the same level as Alabama. The Kansas St. offense has been on a roll of late as the Wildcats have scored 30 or more points in five of its last six games but facing Big 12 defenses will do that. Obviously, one of those wins came against TCU but the Horned Frogs do not have a very good defense despite being the No. 3 team in the country and the best defense Kansas St. has faced over this six-game stretch is ranked No. 50. Alabama checks in at No. 15 and is ranked in the top 30 in all major defensive categories. Kansas St. has a great running back in Deuce Vaughn as he has 1,425 yards on the ground and a cause for concern is that the Crimson Tide allowed 318 yards rushing against Auburn but we can categorize that as an aberration as just four other teams managed to go over 100 yards on the ground against their defense this season. Alabama has big edges on both sides of the ball and we will gladly lay the short price. 10* (272) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Wyoming is in a very tough spot as it has one of the worst offenses in the country as it is ranked No. 118 in total offense and No. 112 in scoring offense and is now down a ton in the Arizona Bowl. The Cowboys leading rusher Titus Swen, who had 1,039 yards on the ground entered the transfer portal as did leading receiver Josh Cobbs, who had just 407 yards which shows how bad the passing game has been. With Swen on the move, there is a ton of pressure on quarterback Andrew Peasley who was pretty bad as he threw for just 1,388 yards with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions while barely completing over half of his passes. They will be facing one of the worst defenses in the country against the pass but that will not matter here as Wyoming scored just 31 points total over their last three games. The Bobcats would struggle against a good offense but certainly not here. Ohio had one of the best offenses in the country as it was led by MAC Offensive Player of the Year quarterback Kurtis Rourke but he sustained a season ending injury late in the year so that offense will definitely not be as prolific. CJ Harris has played two games and was pretty good so that experience and extra preparation time will benefit him going up against a very good Wyoming defense. But that defense is also down some key players as it best corner Cameron Stone and edge rusher Oluwaseyi Omotosho, who was second on the team with 6.5 sacks, both entered the transfer portal. We can expect a big game from running back Sieh Bangura, the MAC Freshman of the Year, as he led the team with 940 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. We are catching a small line because of the Rourke absence but Ohio is in great shape for its first 10-win season since 2011. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after gaining 250 or less total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (266) Ohio Bobcats

This is a play on the UCLA BRUINS for our CFB Friday Afternoon Dominator. The transfer portal has affected these two teams in different ways with UCLA players showing the classy way to go out. Pittsburgh and UCLA had the leading rushers in their respective conferences with Israel Abanikanda leading the ACC with 1,431 yards and Zach Charbonnet leading the Pac 12 with 1,359 yards but only Charbonnet will be present on Friday as Abanikanda opted out to get ready for the NFL Draft. That is a big loss for the Panthers who will also be without starting quarterback Kedon Clovis who entered the transfer portal and is off to BYU leaving Pittsburgh with a makeshift offense. This is not good news for an offense that was average to begin with and now it will be Nick Patti and/or Nate Yarnell making the start at quarterback after throwing for just 258 yards combined on only 32 passing attempts. The UCLA defense is not very good and would have been vulnerable against a full Panthers offense but should be able to keep the Panthers in check. The defense did have its moments against some average offenses and that is what we can classify Pittsburgh at this point. Conversely, the UCLA offense is in fine shape with Charbonnet and do everything quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson playing despite both going to be taken in the NFL Draft and respect for them to play with their teammates in what was a great season. The Bruins finished No. 3 in the country in total offense and what made it so lethal was the balance as they were the only team in the country to have at least 2,900 yards rushing and 3,100 yards passing. Thompson-Robinson was exceptional as he accumulated 3,514 total yards and 39 touchdowns both through the air and on the ground and while facing a solid defense, that unit also lost players that have opted out including all-American tackle and NFL prospect Calijah Kancey. There will be plenty of motivation for the Bruins as they seek their first 10-win season since 2014, the same year they had their last bowl victory. 10* (262) UCLA Bruins

This is a play on the FLORIDA ST. SEMINOLES for our CFB Thursday Supreme Annihilator. We typically do not lay big numbers in bowl games but this will be an exception. Both teams should have plenty of motivation here as Oklahoma will want to avoid a losing season for the first time since 1998 so there will be pride while on the other side, the Seminoles will be out its first 10-win season since 2016 and looks to set the tone for 2023 which could be a special one given the talent that they are returning and bringing in via the transfer portal and recruiting class. These were two of the best rushing teams in the country during the regular season but they will be totally different heading into the bowl game. The Sooners would have had a significant edge against a pretty bad Florida St. rushing defense but star running back Eric Gray, who rushed for 1,364 yards, opted out of the game as did both starting tackles leaving the ball in the hands of quarterback Dillon Gabriel who did have a decent season but now has no running game to rely on and he will be missing his deep threat receiver Theo Wease who also opted out. He faces a Seminoles passing defense that allowed just 158.9 ypg which as No. 3 in the country. on the other side, the Seminoles finished just ahead of Oklahoma in rushing offense at No. 12 with 217.8 ypg and the difference here is that everyone will be playing. Their four leading rushers all eclipsed 4.9 ypc and together they combined for 26 touchdowns. Oklahoma ranked No. 107 in rushing defense, giving up at least 203 rushing yards five times and to no surprise, they lost all five of those games. The Sooners are just 1-6 when allowing more than 14 points this season and that will not be an issue for Florida St. to surpass that number. Pride can only go so far as the Sooners are severely undermanned in this matchup and what looks good on paper could potentially turn into a blowout. 10* (256) Florida St. Seminoles

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. Mississippi opened the season 7-0 and got itself into the top ten but then the schedule stiffened and the Rebels folded. They lost four of their last five games with the only win over that stretch coming against a bad Texas A&M team. That was the story this season as they beat just one Power 5 team that qualified for a bowl game all season which was Kentucky and went 0-4 in their other meetings with Power 5 bowl teams. Their rushing attack has been lethal as they average 261.6 ypg which is the most in the country from a non-option running team so the Red Raiders will have their hands full. But they possess a very underrated defense that was the best one to take the field in years as this season, Texas Tech is ranked No. 45 in EPA per play and No. 33 in success rate. Even more impressive is the fact they allowed 29.5 ppg which is nothing great but it is the fewest it has allowed in over a decade. The Red Raiders closed the season with three straight wins, two coming against bowl teams, part of four victories they have against bowl teams overall. The results are a bit surprising with this being the first season with head coach Joey McGuire and some low expectations coming in but they overachieved to finish 7-5 and will be amped up to carry some momentum into next season. One thing that has not changed is the offense that goes fast and is one of the best in the country. The Red Raiders average the most offensive plays in the country while their 44.2 passing attempts per game is the third most in the nation. That has led to the No. 13 ranked passing offense which will find success as the Rebels defense is ranked No. 98 in pass success rate which is a better indicator than the raw yards allowed. Despite some gaudy passing numbers, the running game is very effective and can keep defenses off balance as Texas Tech is averaging a solid 152.1 ypg on the ground. 10* (252) Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is a play on the DUKE BLUE DEVILS for our CFB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. Central Florida opened this game as the favorite but the line has flipped with the Knights coming in banged up and shorthanded. UCF lost two of its last three games including a defeat in the AAC Championship and this is not the destination it was expecting just a few short weeks ago. Knights quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is not on the injury list but dealt with a hamstring injury down the stretch and that hurts the offense besides the passing game as he led UCF in rushing during the regular season with 841 yards. He could be limited against a Duke defense that finished No. 24 in the country in yards allowed per game and 18th in rush play success rate. While the running game could be hampered, the passing attack is hurt as top receiver Ryan O'Keefe is entering the transfer portal and will not play. The weakness of the Blue Devils defense is against the pass but they catch a break here. Duke is coming off an 8-4 season and while there were not many quality wins, the fact it was able to get to eight wins was a huge achievement for a team picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC. The Blue Devils won four of their last five games with the only loss coming to Pittsburgh by two points. They have a dynamic offense that is very balanced as Duke ranked No. 3 in the conference in rushing with 184.8 ypg and No. 6 in passing with 236.4 ypg while also averaging 33.1 ppg. The offensive line is responsible for a lot of the success, especially on the ground as they are ranked No. 4 in stuff rate, No. 9 in line yards, and No. 31 in the country in rush play success rate. The Knights passing defense is a big weakness, ranked No. 81 in coverage rate while allowing 268 passing ypg over its last nine games taking Navy out of the equation. Over the last three games, the Knights allowed 267 ypg rushing so this unit has been gashed all over the place and has been very inconsistent. 10* (246) Duke Blue Devils

This is a play on the WISCONSIN BADGERS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. Oklahoma St. was a favorite in the Big 12 coming into the season and after a 5-0 start, things were looking good. The Cowboys then suffered a loss in overtime against TCU which put them in a tailspin and while they did respond with a win against Texas, the closed the season on a 1-4 run with the only win coming against bottom feeder Iowa St. despite getting outgained by 89 yards and posting just 244 yards of total offense. The Cowboys averaged just 13.6 ppg over that five-game closing stretch and now have to go into the bowl game without starting quarterback Spencer Sanders who entered the transfer portal. Backups Gunner Gundy and Garret Rangel were not good when pressed into play as they completed 52 percent of their passes while throwing five touchdowns and seven interceptions so it is a significant drop off. They will not be facing one of the best defenses it has seen all season. The Badgers dropped their regular season finale against Minnesota to finish 6-6but it was a good rally following the firing of head coach Paul Chryst and there is motivation for Wisconsin to end the season with a win for interim head coach Jim Leonard who is a player favorite and did not get the permanent head coaching position. The offense struggled this season and will also have to play with a backup quarterback as starter Graham Mertz also entered the transfer portal but the drop off is not as significant even though there is little experience as they are not a passing team to begin with, ranking No. 22 in the country in running percentage. Leading rusher Braelon Allen is questionable after missing the last game but Wisconsin goes up against an Oklahoma St. defense ranked No. 100 in opponent yards per play. On the other side, Wisconsin ranked 12th in the nation in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents while allowing more than 24 points only once in its last seven games. 10* (244) Wisconsin Badgers

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES for our CFB Tuesday Afternoon Dominator. A pair of underwhelming teams square off in Dallas and that typically favors the underdog, especially one that is getting a significant amount of points. Utah St. had its three-game winning streak snapped in a fluky loss at Boise St. to close the regular season as it was down by just five points midway through the fourth quarter before the Broncos scored on a 91-yard touchdown run and then on a 48-yard interception return for a score to close the game. It was an excellent run to close the season after the Aggies opened 1-4 and while the top level stats show weaknesses, digging deeper does show some edges in key areas. They possess an underrated defense where it is ranked No. 22 in Stuff Rate and No. 32 in Passing Success Rate so it can slow this Memphis offense down whose own top level numbers are inflated. Memphis also finished 6-6 and closed the season with a loss against SMU which snapped its own two-game winning streak. The Tigers beat the teams it should have but struggled against the rest of the slate as they went 1-6 against bowl teams. The Tigers passing game is solid but as mentioned, they will be facing a strong pass defense. Memphis does not run the ball well at all and it is ranked No. 84 in ERA per rush and No. 104 in line yards and that goes right up against the Utah St. strength along the line of scrimmage. Their defense is overrated as while they are No. 63 in total defense, they are No. 77 in EPA per play and No. 88 in Success Rate and the passing defense is a real weakness as the tigers are No. 95 in EPA per pass and No. 109 in Passing Success Rate and Utah St. can take advantage. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have been outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after allowing 31 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 76-38 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (239) Utah St. Aggies

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Dominator. Since winning against La Vegas in the first games for interim head coach Jeff Saturday, the Colts have lost four straight games and were outgained in all four of those. The new coaching staff has not been ideal at making halftime adjustments as the Colts have been outscored 72-9 in the second half and in overtime over the last two games which has obviously been the difference. The offense has done nothing as they have averaged only 306.0 ypg. Quarterback Matt Ryan has been a lawn chair and he has now been benched for a second time this season in favor of Nick Foles and this is the jumpstart this offense needs. We have already seen it a few times this season when a new starter enters and the team is energized. The absence of Jonathan Taylor is a big one at running back but Indianapolis will be facing a defense that has underwhelmed on the road, allowing 24 and 27 points over the last two games at Arizona and at Las Vegas. The Chargers have won three of their last four games and have a chance to clinch a playoff berth but they have underwhelmed this season. Of the eight victories, seven have come by one possession including five by a field goal or less. The Colts defense has been playing solid when using their normal schemes and they have a chance to disrupt Justin Herbert here. He has been pressured 201 times this season, which trails only Kirk Cousins and the Colts tied at No. 7 in sacks so this is where they sloe this offense down. While the Colts second half woes have been a problem, it should not carry over here as Los Angeles has no third-quarter touchdowns in its last nine games and has been outscored 175-109 in the second half and overtime this year. Defensively, Los Angeles has looked better the last two weeks and the matchup looks to be in its favor but in seven road games, it has allowed 24 or more points five times. Here, we play on home underdogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last two weeks of the regular season. This situation is 60-27 ATS (69 percent) since 1983. 10* (482) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO ST. AGGIES for our CFB Monday Enforcer. Bowling Green closed the season winning four of its last six games to earn a trip to a bowl game for the first time since 2005 but this is not a good team. The Falcons are ranked No. 97 or worse in six of the eight statistical categories including No. 105 in total offense and No. 106 in total defense and in its 12 games, Bowling Green has been outgained nine times. Despite a 5-3 MAC record, the offense scored 17 or fewer points five times and the Falcons will be facing a pretty strong defense. Quarterback Matt McDonald is coming off one of his worst games of the season and has been inconsistent throughout and keeping him clean will be a problem as he has been sacked three times or more in each of the last seven games. While this game is being played closer to home for Bowling Green, any advantage of having a home crowd on its side is minimal as there will be no one at this game. New Mexico St. had to play a non-scheduled game against Valparaiso of the FCS to get a special bowl waiver since two of its victories were against FCS teams but nonetheless, the Aggies are bowling for the first time since 2017 as head coach Jerry Kill has done an outstanding job in his first season, taking a program to the postseason that had not finished better than 3-10 since 2018, going 8-30 over that stretch. They have played a softer schedule but face an opponent right at their level and getting a favorable number. The Aggies are ranked No. 37 in the country in Points Per Opportunity which is based on getting inside the opponents 40-yard line and the Bowling Green defense has struggled defending that as it is ranked No. 100 in defensive Points Per Opportunity. Here, we play against teams after allowing 37 points or more last game going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points. This situation is 131-69 ATS (65.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (235) New Mexico St. Aggies

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. This is going to be a very public play which we despise but they do come through at times and we are giving Tampa Bay another shot this week after it blew a 17-0 lead against the Bengals as turnovers and penalties at the wrong time led to Cincinnati scoring 34 unanswered points to pull away. The Buccaneers did outplay Cincinnati from a statistical standpoint as they won the yardage battle by 159 total yards but not many teams are going to win when turning the ball over four times. This line has shot up considerably since opening at 3.5 but that is not a concern with this play as we are finally expecting that break out Tampa Bay game that we have really yet to see this season with the biggest two wins coming in the first two weeks of the season. Last week, the Bengals made the adjustments with the most notable applying more pressure to Tom Brady and it worked and with Cincinnati ranked No. 9 in pressure rating, Tampa Bay has faced three straight teams ranked No. 15 or better in pressure and that will be far from the case here with Arizona near the bottom of the league in that category. The Cardinals have completely bottomed out as the loss of Kyler Murray three plays into the New England game was their last shot to be competitive. They have lost four straight games and last week at Denver proved that as they allowed 24 points to the Broncos which was just the fourth time Denver has surpassed 20 points this season and the offense was absolutely useless. Arizona managed just 240 yards of offense and while that was one of the better defenses in the NFL, it will be facing another one here. Trace McSorley came in for an injured Colt McCoy and was ineffective and while he is getting a full week with the first team at practice in prep for this game, he will be outmatched again. Tampa Bay is No. 7 in total defense and they bring in the No. 10 ranked pressure rate and can easily keep this offense in check. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 68-35 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. 10* (479) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Dominator. The Raiders were on the fortunate side of that Patriots game as they completed an improbable win on the last play of the game to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. This is a very tough spot coming off that victory with a long travel assignment and Las Vegas has struggled on the road as it is 2-6 and both of those wins easily could have been losses as they both came in overtime. That is part of three of their last four wins being walk off victories so the 6-8 record could be even worse but to their credit, they also possess some close defeats. The offense is ranked No. 11 both overall and in scoring but has a tough task here facing a defense that is playing its best on the season. The Raiders own defense is an issue as they are ranked No. 24 overall and No. 23 in scoring and while not facing a great offense here, they have allowed even worse offenses to look good against them at times earlier this season. The Steelers are coming off a win at Carolina to match the Raiders 6-8 record to keep their own playoff hopes alive and their road is a lot easier as they have Baltimore and Cleveland left after this. It has been a good turnaround as Pittsburgh is 4-2 in its last six games following a 2-6 start and the overall record is more impressive considering the Steelers have played the No. 1 ranked schedule in the league. Five of their eight losses came by one possession and two other losses came at Buffalo and at Philadelphia. The return of T.J. Watt has changed this defense completely as they are now again able to apply a lot of pressure and that will be the difference here as they have allowed only 16.3 over their last four games. 10* (474) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. BLUE RAIDERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Two fairly even teams square off on Christmas Eve in Hawaii and we are getting value in this line with the Blue Raiders. Middle Tennessee St. closed the season with three straight wins to finish 7-5 and while those came against some weak competition, it matches up well here. The offense was middle of the pack as the passing game led the way. Quarterback Chase Cunningham completed 67.4 percent of his passes for 2,920 yards with 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions to lead a passing attack that is ranked No. 31 in the country. Now while they face a San Diego St. defense that has only allowed 206.6 ypg which was good for No. 35, those came mostly against teams in the MWC that had no semblance of a passing game with five teams ranked in the bottom 15 in the country in passing offense. A passing game that has an edge even though the stats do not state that from the top line is even better when that teams is a significant underdog. San Diego St. also finished the season 7-5 with just two solid wins against Toledo and San Jose St. as the other four FBS wins came against teams a combined 12-37. The offense was one of the worst in the country as the Aztecs averaged 321.8 ypg and 21.3 ppg, No. 117 and No. 109 in the country respectively and while it did improve over the second half of the season with a quarterback change, it was not overwhelming. Jalen Mayden, who is a converted safety, completed 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,721 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions so he did not light it up and actually regressed after teams got film on him. He was sacked 15 times in seven games and will be facing a solid Middle Tennessee St. defensive line that registered 34 sacks and while the defense was next to last in passing defense, there is not much worry here and the strength of the San Diego St. offense will be negated by the Blue Raiders No. 27 ranked rushing defense. 10* (233) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Game of the Year. Give Houston credit for having a chance to win its last two games against Kansas City and Dallas but came up just short in both and that puts the Texans in a bad letdown spot. They lost in overtime against the Chiefs but it was definitely misleading as Houston was dominated, getting outgained by 282 total yards as the offense managed only 219 total yards and 15 first downs. This came after a last possession loss against the Cowboys where it was outgained there as well and it has now been five straight games where the Texans have been outgained with the offense going over 300 total yards just once and have averaged just 237.4 ypg over that stretch. Houston possesses the worst total offense in the league and is ranked No. 27 or worse in seven of the eight major statistical categories. This includes being dead last in rushing defense which is not ideal in this spot as it should get pounded on the ground. They are getting outgained by over 72 ypg on the road including close to 67 ypg on the ground. Houston is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games against teams allowing 90 or fewer rushing ypg. Tennessee looked to have the AFC South wrapped up not too long ago but has lost four straight games which has brought Jacksonville right back into the mix as the Titans are in first place by just one game over the Jaguars. The schedule was in their favor early on but during this four-game skid, all have come against teams currently sitting in definite or possible playoff spots and that does include a loss against Jacksonville two weeks ago which could make the Week 18 matchup at Jacksonville for the division. The Titans need this game for that reason especially with a home game against Dallas on deck and with the recent struggles, there is no chance to take Houston lightly. This offense has struggled all season but this is the best matchup it has seen over its last eight games going back to the first meeting with Houston where it outgained the Texans by 193 total yards which made that seven-point win a deceiving one as well with the Texans scoring a meaningless touchdown with 17 seconds left. The Titans are ranked No. 5 in offensive touchdown red zone percentage and that is important here to pull this game wide open. The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. 10* (464) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. The run of Detroit is one of the top stories in the NFL as after a 1-6 start to the season, the Lions have won six of their last seven games while covering all of those games with the only outright loss coming against Buffalo on Thanksgiving by three points. Now, the Lions are in unfamiliar territory as they are laying points on the road for the first time this season and for the first time since 2020, a span of 20 games on the highway. It has not been a very dominating run however as Detroit has been outgained in four of these seven games including two of the three games that have been on the road. The offense was humming along with 31 or more points in four of five games before scoring just 20 points last week against a solid Jets defense and Detroit will face another good defense this week. The NFC South is a mess and Carolina is right in that mess as the Panthers are still alive for the playoffs despite their 5-9 record. It is plain and simple as if they win out, they win the division with an 8-9 record with next week being the real deciding game when they go to Tampa Bay but they are certainly not looking past this game. Carolina has gone 3-2 over its last five games to get into this situation and it needs to be emphasized that the two losses came against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, two defenses that have been playing at a high level and that is something that Detroit cannot claim. The Panthers offense has been bad all season but against this defense, quarterback P.J. Walker and the solid running game have the possibility for a big game, similar to what they did against the Falcons in both meetings that have taken place over their last seven games. 10* (458) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Saturday Ultimate Underdog. New England cannot be coming off a worst loss as it look like it was going to actually win before a controversial scoring call and then that lateral debacle on the final play. That is tough to recover from but the Patriots are still in the playoff hunt and a return home should get them energized again. They have the toughest remaining stretch of any team vying for a playoff spot as the combined record of their three final opponents is 29-13 so it is going to take their best mini stretch of the season along with getting some help. New England has lost three of four but two of those games could have and should have gone their as two really bad calls went against them. The Patriots defense is what needs to keep them into this game and it should as the unit is ranked No. 6 in total defense and No. 8 in scoring defense while sitting in the top ten both against the run and pass. Cincinnati keeps rolling along following a win over the Buccaneers last week to improve to 10-4 which put the Bengals a game up on the Ravens atop the AFC North and they have been one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won 10 of 12 games following a 0-2 start and they are 11-1 ATS over that stretch which is easily the best run in the league. Following back-to-back home wins against the Chiefs and a divisional win over the Browns, and then the come-from-behind win against Tampa Bay last week, this is an awful spot but the public still obviously loves them. The Bengals are laying the same number they did last week which is flawed as the Patriots are a better team than the Buccaneers but it is based on recency bias and the linemakers had to put the line this high. 10* (460) New England Patriots

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Wake Forest was a ranked team in late October but it closed the season with losses in four of its last five games to finish the regular season 7-5. It will be out to close the season strong and the roster is fully on board as it is just a little more intact with no optouts and quarterback Sam Hartman is the key piece as he easily could have to get ready for the NFL Draft but chose the noble move to end his five-year career here and play in the final bowl game. Wake Forest has the No. 10 ranked passing offense and will be facing a strong Missouri defense but it will be down heading into this game. The defense was shredded many times this season but those were against alite offenses and that will not be the case here. Missouri has momentum in its favor, having won its last two games to clinch a bowl berth but it struggled for the most part against good teams, going 1-4 against FBS teams with a winning record. Missouri was not hit too hard with the transfer portal but did lose top receiver Dominic Lovett which will hurt an already anemic passing offense and the Tigers will also be missing some key pieces on the defensive line. While dual-threat quarterback Brady Cook will be difficult to contain, if this game turns into a shootout, his throwing ability will not be able to keep up. The Missouri defense struggles when facing off against elite slot receivers and Wake Forest has two of the best in the ACC in Taylor Morin and Ke'Shawn Williams. Here, we play on teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in December games. This situation is 55-22 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (231) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Dominator. We were waiting for the official news of Jets quarterback Mike White to see what sort of line would be established and the Jets are in good shape to snap its three-game losing streak and remain in playoff contention. Currently, New York is tied with New England on the outside looking in at 7-7, one game behind the Chargers and Dolphins so this has turned into a must win with this being the last home game and two games remaining on the road against playoff contenders Seattle and Miami. Zach Wilson was inserted back into the lineup last week and while he was far from great, he was not horrible, throwing for 317 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He gave the Jets the lead but the defense allowed the game-winning 51-yard touchdown pass with 1:49 remaining. That defense is still extremely solid as they are ranked No. 3 overall, No. 4 in passing, No. 11 in rushing and No. 5 in scoring so now it is up to the offense to get going and this is a good spot to do so. Jacksonville was a winner for us last week as the Jaguars scored on a pick six in overtime to defeat Dallas and keep their division hopes alive. They have won four of their last six games with both of those losses coming on the road where they are 2-5 and while their offense is starting to peak, they have a tough road test here. Trevor Lawrence has come into his own recently as five of his last six games has seen him post a passer rating of 106 or higher while throwing for 14 touchdowns and just one interception. He will have problems here though, especially playing on a short week with travel involved. The Jacksonville defense has been the liability as it is ranked No. 27 overall and No. 21 in scoring and its passing defense has been the real issue with a No. 29 ranking so this is the spot for White. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 68-34 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (452) New York Jets

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Air Force comes into Thursday following four straight victories to close the regular season and finished in a three-way tie for second place in the MWC Mountain Division. A win over Baylor would give the Falcons a 10-win season for the second consecutive year and the fifth time over the last 16 seasons which is saying something for a service academy program. Air Force is 9-3 with the three losses coming against Wyoming, Utah St. and Boise St., all bowl teams, all by one possession and two of those being true road games. The solid record shows in the stats as the Falcons possess the top ranked rushing game in the country as they cause fits for most teams and will do so here against a team that fired its defensive coordinator at the end of the regular season. The flexbone offense has three productive backs so defenses cannot key on one particular player while getting confused by the numerous counters and fakes. Baylor has lost three straight games, albeit all against ranked teams, so it comes in with little momentum and after high expectations coming into the season, it has been a disappointing one at 6-6. The Bears have an above average offense led by quarterback Blake Shapen who has been wildly inconsistent especially down the stretch. Over his last four games, he has three touchdowns and five interceptions and none of those games came against a defense ranked in the top 50. Now, Baylor goes up against the top ranked defense in the country and the Falcons are great at both levels as they are No. 1 against the pass and No. 3 against the run and while this can be attributed to facing the fewest snaps by far, they are still No. 13 in yards per play allowed. Because of leading the country in time of possession, the defense is fresh throughout the game which leads to its great success. 10* (227) Air Force Falcons

This is a play on the WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. South Alabama is coming off its best season since entering the FBS in 2012 as it posted its best winning percentage after going 10-2 with the two losses coming by a combined five points against UCLA and Troy so it is no surprise the Jaguars come in as the favorite. Half of its wins came by one possession so things could have gone worse as the Jaguars have the No. 12 ranked Luck Factor Rating so deep analytics can tell a different story. They have a good but not great offense as they are ranked No. 40 or worse in all categories and while facing a below average defense, the Hilltoppers improved immensely on that side of the ball over the second half of the season. The Hilltoppers closed the season with wins in three of their last four games with the only loss at Auburn and they won the yardage battle in all of those contests. Western Kentucky was on the other side of the Luck Factor Ratings as they have been unfortunate coming in ranked No. 117. South Alabama comes in with a with a very solid defense but the one liability is the passing defense where it allows 215.8 ypg which is ranked No. 52 and while not horrible, it has a horrible matchup. The Hilltoppers bring in the No. 2 ranked passing offense and they are fortunate to be at full strength. They are led by transfer quarterback Austin Reed who was named C-USA Newcomer of the Year after throwing for 4,249 yards and 36 touchdowns, which are ranked No. 2 and No 4 in the country respectively. They are fortunate as Reed initially entered the transfer portal in hoping to go to Louisville but has since reversed course and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder. The rushing offense is not as good but the passing game has done enough to bring in the No. 10 ranked total offense and No. 18 ranked scoring offense. The Jaguars earlier faced Georgia Southern who came in with the No. 6 ranked passing offense and they were lit up by quarterback Kyle Vantrease yet escaped with a 14-point come-from-behind win. 10* (226) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers