Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-18-24 | Yankees v. Guardians +105 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS FOR OUR ALCS Friday Dominator. The Guardians were one out away from their season being done but momentum has shifted and at the perfect time with two more home games upcoming. Per MLB, the Yankees became the first team in MLB postseason history to be trailing by multiple runs in the eighth inning or later and hit back-to-back homers to take the lead. And obviously, the first team to lose after that feat. Cleveland is alive and this is the time to ride it and at a plus price. The Yankees had their chance as their back-to-back home runs looked to have them come close to sealing the series but now it is a series again with momentum going the other way. The home field cannot be overlooked and it will be another great atmosphere with once again plus money. Luis Gil will make his postseason debut, taking the mound for the first time since September 28 against Pittsburgh. He was the best pitcher in the rotation to start the season but since June 1, he has a 4.58 ERA which is No. 86 among 120 starters throwing at least 70 innings. Gavin Williams is on a long layoff as well as his last start was September 22 where he allowed one run over 5.2 inning against the Cardinals. He has a lot of losses on his docket but that is due to a coincidental lack of run support as he has gotten two runs or less in seven of his last nine starts and again, that is just coincidental and who Cleveland has faced. He was coming off an early season injury and struggled coming off that but is in good form heading into another must win situation. 10* (966) Cleveland Guardians | |||||||
10-17-24 | Yankees v. Guardians +105 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 105 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our ALCS Thursday Dominator. The time is now for Cleveland as a loss here and this series is over and a return home can get this offense going. The Guardians were shutout by Tarik Skubal for seven innings in Game Two of the ALDS but have scored seven runs in their other two home playoff games including a rematch against Skubal. They are 52-31 at home which matches the Yankees record on the road and they come in as the underdog with an even higher number in both home games against Skubal. New York has now won four straight games to improve to 5-1 in the postseason and the Yankees are playing the part they are supposed to even with an offense that has been inconsistent. The pitching has been the story as they have allowed just eight runs over their last four games and we feel there is finally some negative regression coming. Prior to this recent runs, New York allowed four runs or more in five straight games, an average of 5.2 rpg allowed. Matthew Boyd has the task of keeping this one within reach for the offense to get things going and he has been extremely solid in his limited action. He posted a 2.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in eight regular season starts after getting back into the rotation and he did not allow a run over 6.2 innings in two outings against Detroit in the ALDS. He went only two innings in the second start and the Guardians will look to push him with the best bullpen in baseball having been needed too much in the first two games. The Yankees counter with Clarke Schmidt who was average in his lone postseason start, allowing two runs over 4.2 innings against the Royals. He had a strong regular season start with a 2.37 ERA in his first 14 starts which including an over three-month absence but in his three starts since then, he has a 5.02 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. 10* (962) Cleveland Guardians | |||||||
10-16-24 | Dodgers v. Mets -105 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our NLCS Wednesday Dominator. Momentum can be huge this time of year and the Mets can attest to that this postseason as they have won back-to-back games following a loss and heading back home are in good shape to do it again. Following a 9-0 blowout loss in Game One of the NLCS, they came out strong by opening a 6-0 with the bottom half of the order accumulating seven of the ten hits. New York is back at Citi Field where it is 47-36 and laying a short price with a big pitching advantage. The Dodgers were on a roll with three straight shutouts from their pitching before getting blown up in their bullpen game and the pitching is a real concern here. Los Angeles used their hot bullpen to do most of the damage against the Padres and got a strong effort from Jack Flaherty in Game One before the Monday debacle. The Dodgers have relatively the same road record on the road as the Mets have at home but those were mostly different circumstances. Luis Severino looks to continue his solid postseason run as he has tossed a pair of quality outings against the Brewers and Phillies. He is pitching on nine days rest which is important this time of the season as he has tossed a lot of innings and he actually left the team early from Los Angeles. This is a great spot. The Dodgers counter with Walker Buehler who was a possible starter for Game Two but was held back to start on the road because of his postseason success as he has a 3.40 ERA in 84.2 postseason innings. The problem is that this is not the same Buehler of the past as he is coming off a brutal game where he allowed six runs in five innings against the Padres. The bullpen will be a big factor and we are calling both equal at this point. 10* (960) New York Mets | |||||||
10-14-24 | Guardians +147 v. Yankees | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our ALCS Monday Dominator. This is a good matchup for Cleveland to steal the first game of the series and grab home field advantage. The Guardians were taken to the distance against the upstart Tigers and were able to come away with the 7-3 on Saturday thanks to a Lane Thomas grand slam off Tarik Skubal which caught the surprise of many but this team has crushed lefties this season with a .751 OPS which was No. 2 in the American League while their .324 wOBA was No. 3. Overall, Cleveland is now 31-12 against left-handed starters. The Yankees are back home following their clinching of the ALDS against the Royals in Kansas City and while that have been dominant at home throughout the season, they have been average over the last two months plus, going 15-15 in their last 30 games at Yankee Stadium. Alex Cobb was cleared to return from the injured list to start Game Three of the ALDS and it was his first outing in more than a month so he was limited as he gave up two runs in three innings in the loss. He is likely not to go more than three innings no matter how good he is but this not a bad thing as the Cleveland bullpen is lethal as it ended the season with the fourth-lowest bullpen ERA by any team since 1995. New York managed only 14 runs in the four games against the Royals. Carlos Rodon will be looking to bounce back from a loss in ALDS Game Two, when he lasted just 3.2 innings while allowing four runs. He got off to a good start this season but has been on the decline as he has posted an ERA over 4.00 since June 15. He does have one of the best K% over this stretch but also has one of the worst BB% which negate each other. 10* (953) Cleveland Guardians | |||||||
10-13-24 | Mets +145 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our NLCS Dominator. The Mets head west to Los Angeles and the good part about this is that it will not be a quick turnaround as they have been off since Wednesday. Los Angeles has the most potent roster remaining in the playoffs but the Mets are not far behind. Their .715 postseason OPS is easily the highest of the teams that made it to the Division Series and they have been one of the best in baseball since their massive turnaround that started May 30 which happened to come right after getting swept by the Dodgers are home by a combined 18-5. They have a .766 OPS since then which is No. 3. While the Dodgers did take four of the six meetings this season overall, they were before the New York surge. Kodai Senga gets the ball for New York and his usage throughout the series could be a huge benefit for the Mets even it will be limited. The Mets plan to let Senga stretch out to 50-60 pitches after tossing 31 a week ago. Because of the off-days from Thursday through Saturday, the Mets will enter the NLCS with as fresh off a bullpen as they have had at any point since mid-September. The Mets will likely turn to David Peterson after Senga. Jack Flaherty counters for the Dodgers and while he was one of the better starters down the stretch, he was anything from dominant. He posted a 3.58 ERA during his time with Los Angeles during the regular season, a significant regression from his time with Detroit and he struggled in his postseason outing, allowing four runs over 5.1 innings in Game Two of the NLDS. The Dodgers bullpen played the big role in limiting the Padres at the end of the NLDS as they did not allow a run over the final 24 innings but we do not see this run going on forever. 10* (951) New York Mets | |||||||
10-10-24 | Yankees v. Royals +137 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our ALDS Dominator. The Yankees pulled out the win in Game Three on a Giancarlo Stanton home run in the eighth inning to pull out the 3-2 victory to take a 2-1 series lead. This is a rematch of the Game One starters where neither performed well yet the Yankees come in as heavy favorites despite the struggle of Gerrit Cole. New York improved to 51-31 on the road which is a big factor in this line but it is just a six-game edge versus the Royals and their 45-37 home record. Cole allowed three earned runs in five innings while striking out just four. This has been an issue this season as his 25.4% K% is his lowest since 2017 and overall he has just a 17.9% K-BB% after being top 10 in this category last season. The Royals have a 17.9% K% at home which is the lowest in baseball and they only registered five strikeouts last night. In that Game One outing, he surrendered 11 hard-hit balls, tying his career high in a start. Kansas City brings back Michael Wacha who has had an outstanding season despite the Game One struggles and he has been even better at home. Overall, he has a 3.35 ERA and 1.19 WHIP which are No. 19 and No. 28 among 57 qualified starters and one key factor is his low BB% which is at 6.6% which could come in as a big edge after the Royals issuing nine walks on Wednesday. Wacha has a 2.89 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 14 home outings where he has walked just 19 hitters. 10* (916) Kansas City Royals | |||||||
10-09-24 | Phillies v. Mets -104 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our Divisional Series Game of the Year. The Mets took pivotal Game Three and have put the pressure on the Phillies which were the best team in the National League over a three-month stretch at one point but they are just 11-13 over the last month which includes a 3-10 record on the road. The bats have been inconsistent during the series and the pitching has been awful down the stretch even with a five-day break between the regular season and the postseason as they have allowed 6.6 rpg over their last eight games. New York improved to 47-35 at home and have a big momentum edge in front of the home crown once again. Ranger Suarez was a Cy Young Award candidate over the first part of the season as he had a 1.75 ERA through his first 15 starts but struggled over his final seven starts with a 5.74 ERA as he landed on the IL with a back injury and has clearly not been the same since. His velocity has steadily declined and he is now at a career low so the Mets will have their opportunities and have already seen a lot of left-handed pitching this postseason. The Mets counter with Jose Quintana who got off to a rough start this season but he has been sensational down the stretch. He has posted a 2.77 ERA since June 15, a span of 18 starts and that ERA is No. 10 among 60 qualified starters. He has a fresh bullpen behind him thanks to the strong effort from Sean Manaea yesterday and he has much better recent form than Suarez as he has a 0.64 ERA over his last seven starts, allowing three run over 42.1 innings. 10* (906) New York Mets | |||||||
10-08-24 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES/NEW YORK METS UNDER for our MLB Totals Dominator. The Phillies rallied from 3-0 and 4-3 deficits to take a 6-4 lead in the eighth inning only to allow two runs in the ninth inning before pulling out the win on a two-out single from Nick Castellanos in the bottom on the frame. The first two games have gone over the total and we are flipping to the under in this game behind two starters that are in great form. Aaron Nola has posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.27 WHIP across 33 starts which includes a 3.00 ERA in his last three outings. He has not been great on the road this season but has a decent 3.79 ERA and he is now pitching in one of his favorite ballparks. He has a 2.49 ERA in 12 starts against the Mets at Citi Field including a four-hit shutout earlier this season which was his best outing of the season. The Mets did get to him three weeks ago but that was at home which was part of a rough two-game stretch but as mentioned, he has settled back down since then. Sean Manaea has been on a great run with the exception of one bad outing against the Brewers two starts back. He had a 4.29 xERA over the first half of the season but he has posted a 3.75 xERA over the second half of the season after making a subtle change to his delivery and mixing up his pitches. He has a 3.75 ERA at home to go along with a sensational 0.98 WHIP thanks to a 104:26 K:BB ratio. His 21.3% K-BB% is No. 13 among 54 qualified starters. Two of his three starts against the Phillies this season were quality outings. Both bullpens have been great with the Phillies and Mets both tied for No. 5 in xFIP at 3.81 and SIERA at 3.49 and both are well rested heading into Game Three. Both offenses are potent but both are at a slight disadvantage against the respective starters. 10* Under (901) Philadelphia Phillies/(902) New York Mets | |||||||
10-05-24 | Padres +118 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB NLDS Dominator. The Padres closed the regular season on a 43-20 run since the All Star Break which was the best record in baseball and they easily dispatched of the Braves in a two-game sweep. They come in as the hottest team in baseball but are forced to hit the road to open the NLDS but this is not a concern as they went 48-33 on the highway which was the best road record in the National League. The Dodgers closed the regular season with five straight wins including a pair of victories over San Diego which clinched the National League West but will the extended time off hurt? The offense was lethal down the stretch as since September 15, they averaged 7.8 rpg over a stretch od 14 games while their .392 wOBA was easily the best in baseball but nine of those games were against the Rockies and Marlins. The Dodgers flipped their starters in Game One and Game Two as Jack Flaherty was the scheduled starter for Saturday but Yoshinobu Yamamoto will take his place with the reasoning due to keeping him not on regular rest since that has what he was accustomed to this season. He missed close to three months with a triceps injury and while he has made four starts since his return, he has not thrown more than 79 pitches so he will likely not be stretched in Game One which brings the Dodgers bullpen into play. They have a 4.09 xFIP since the All Star Break but since September 1, the xFIP is 4.29 which is No. 26 in baseball. Dylan Cease was the big offseason acquisition for the Padres and he lived up to the billing with a 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 33 starts and finished tied for second in strikeouts with 224, one behind Chris Sale. Out of 55 qualified starters, his 29.4% K% was No. 5 while finishing top ten in K-BB%. He closed the season with a 1.40 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over his final three starts. The sweep of the Braves enabled the entire Padres bullpen to rest and it was one of the best during their run. San Diego had a 3.39 xFIP since the All Star Break which was No. 2 in baseball. 10* (957) San Diego Padres | |||||||
10-05-24 | Tigers +135 v. Guardians | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB ALDS Annihilator. Not many gave the Tigers a chance against Houston to open the postseason but they arrive in Cleveland with a young club surging in confidence after sweeping the postseason-veteran Astros in the AL Wild Card Series. No one gave them a chance when they went on a 3-9 run in late July and early August to fall to 55-59 but the avoided a sweep against the Giants with a 5-4 win on August 11 which triggered a 31-13 run to close the season, the best record in baseball over this stretch. Cleveland took control of the American League Central early in the season and had the lead for the final 169 days of the regular season and had as much of a nine-game lead in the division. The pitching led the way from the start and they will bank on that again but the lack of offense remains a concern as they were the only team not to score more than six runs since September 4, averaging only 3.3 rpg over their last 22 games, ahead of only the Rays and Royals. Tanner Bibee became the Guardians ace and he has had a great run after a slow start as over his last 22 outings of the season, half of them were quality starts. Overall, he has a 3.47 ERA over 31 starts but his road success has been better as he has a 4.15 ERA at home and this has been a tough matchup with Detroit which may sound like an oxymoron but on the season, Bibee faced the Tigers four times, posting a 4.50 ERA in 22 innings. He has arguably the best bullpen behind him but not to be outdone, the Detroit bullpen has gotten them where they are. Detroit manager A.J. Hinch has yet to name a starter for Game One but his "Pitching Chaos" mantra has been successful and has worked against opposing offenses in keeping them off balanced. While the Guardians posted a MLB-best 2.50 bullpen ERA since the All Star Break, the Tigers were No. 4 with a 3.00 ERA and they held a much better Astros offense to only three runs in the two-game sweep. That provided an extra day of rest so all of their arms are ready to go and they are catching a great price in this opening game. 10* (953) Detroit Tigers | |||||||
10-03-24 | Mets +120 v. Brewers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 120 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Wild Card Dominator. The Brewers used two home runs that accounted for three runs in the eighth inning off reliever Phil Maton to win Game Two 5-3 and force a decisive Game Three. Milwaukee improved to 48-35 at home and bring in the momentum but it is at a disadvantage in one of the integral parts of the postseason and that is the bullpen. Milwaukee has been average against left-handed pitching this season and while going 69-46 against right-handed starters, they went just 25-24 against southpaws. The Mets were solid on the road this season as they are now 44-39 and they are looking to get the bats going again as they have scored eight runs twice during the playoff run while scoring just three runs in the other two games but one of those was the second game against the Braves that did not matter and used a skeleton lineup. Tobias Myers gets the Game Three call, something no one would have seen coming after his struggles at the Double-A level just one year ago. He has been a reliable starter for Milwaukee as he has allowed more than three runs only twice since June over 19 starts but he has gone six innings only eight times over that stretch. He had the luxury of arguably the best bullpen behind him but that bullpen has been used a ton over the first two games and all it takes is one tired arm at the wrong time. The Mets counter with Jose Quintana who got off to a rough start this season but he has been sensational down the stretch. He posted a 2.77 ERA since June 15, a span of 18 starts and that ERA is No. 11 among 66 qualified starters. It is just behind Myers over this stretch but he has a fresh bullpen, namely Edwin Diaz which could be big, and better recent form as he closed the season with a 0.28 ERA over his final five regular season starts, allowing one run over 32 innings. 10* (929) New York Mets | |||||||
10-02-24 | Royals v. Orioles OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS/BALTIMORE ORIOLES OVER for our Wild Card Total of the Year. The Royals and Orioles both got awesome pitching performances in Game One which leads to the offenses breaking out in Game Two on Wednesday. Cole Ragans allowed just four hits in his six innings and became just the fifth Royals pitcher with six-plus scoreless innings in a postseason start. Corbin Burnes went eight innings, allowing only five hits and the one deciding run and the two teams combined for just 10 hits. The starters come down a notch in Game Two and the total has gone up a half run with a little juice from the 7 +100 close from Game One. Seth Lugo finished the regular season with a 3.00 ERA over 33 starts and was second in baseball with 206.2 innings thrown. He has been awesome but he has only one postseason appearance, when he threw two scoreless innings for the Mets in 2022. He did struggle down the stretch as he posted a 4.15 ERA over 14 starts since July 13. On the other side, Zach Eflin was great since coming over from Tampa Bay as he posted a 2.60 ERA in nine starts but we cannot ignore his postseason history as he has a 5.17 ERA in 11 appearances while with the Rays and Phillies. Both starters could see some troubles against the opposing offenses despite the non-production on Tuesday. Baltimore was top ten in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ since the All Star Break and while the Royals were further down, ranking between No. 15 and No. 17 in those categories, it was due to a spotty end of September but we feel they have a good edge with eight of their last nine games going under as it adds value because of the low posted total on Wednesday. Play Over (917) Kansas City Royals/(918) Baltimore Orioles | |||||||
10-02-24 | Tigers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS RL for our MLB Runline Dominator. Detroit pulled off the upset in Game One but we expect Houston to not go away quietly and bust out after scoring just one run which did not come until the ninth inning. The Astros came in with one of the best offenses in September as they had a .755 OPS which was No. 5 along with their .325 wOBA while their 115 wRC+ was No. 4. They ran into buzzsaw after Tarik Skubal shut them down and now the starting matchups flip heavily in the favor of Houston with Detroit turning to Tyler Holton which will essentially turn into a bullpen game for the Tigers. He was actually very good as an opener as he made nine starts while posting a 1.17 ERA which covered just 17 innings so he will likely see two innings at the most. The Detroit bullpen was exceptional in September but a lot of that success came against some really poor offenses and some struggling offenses including the Royals and Orioles which were both inconsistent down the stretch. The Tigers managed three runs on seven hits against Framber Valdez and overall, this is not a potent offense that faces a tougher starter on Wednesday with Hunter Brown getting the start in Game Two on Wednesday afternoon. He had a horrible April with an 11.84 ERA but since May 1, he has a 2.51 ERA which is No. 4 in baseball among 64 qualified starters. Additionally, he was tied for No. 2 in Strand Rate at 82.4% so he does not allow baserunners escalate to runs. Overall, he had eight starts of not giving up an earned run and he has a little extra incentive being from Detroit and in five career appearances, he is 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA against the Tigers. Houston still leads the season series 4-3 with all four of those wins coming by three or more runs. 10* (916) Houston Astros -1.5 Runs | |||||||
10-01-24 | Braves v. Padres -145 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Tuesday Playoff Dominator. The Braves were fortunate to win the second game of the Monday doubleheader against the Mets as New York did not put out their full lineup and did not score a run. Atlanta was expected to use Chris Sale in Game Two but he was scratched because of back spasms and is unlikely to be available in the Wild Card series which is obviously a devastating loss. The Braves have to make the quick turnaround out west to face a rested Padres team that has been the best team in baseball since early June. The Padres closed the season on a 43-20 run since the All Star Break which was the best record in baseball and they were able to grab the top Wild Card spot after a race with the Dodgers in the final week in the National League West. They come in as the hottest team in baseball and unfortunately for the Braves, they will not have to face the likely N.L. Cy Young winner and bring in their own Game One starter that will get top five votes in the voting. Michael King was an acquisition in the Juan Soto deal and he did not disappoint as he finished with a 2.85 ERA which was No. 5 among 57 qualifies starters. He was No. 9 with a 27.6% K% and while his BB% was not great, he was still top 15 in K-BB%. He was actually a better pitcher on the road but his 3.32 ERA at PETCO Park was still No. 33 among 81 starters with at least 70 innings logged at home. He opened with a couple rough outings but he has been at his best of late, as he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball during the second half, posting a 2.15 ERA since the All-Star break. The Braves will likely decide between Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder, who would each need to be promoted from Triple-A Gwinnett. The bullpen could play a big part with the Atlanta arms being used a lot on Sunday and Monday in three games. 10* (944) San Diego Padres | |||||||
10-01-24 | Mets +129 v. Brewers | Top | 8-4 | Win | 129 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Tuesday Playoff Annihilator. The Mets clinched a postseason berth with an 8-7 win over the Braves in the first game of the Monday doubleheader as it was able to overcome a 3-0 deficit in the eighth inning and eventually took the final lead with a Francisco Lindor home run in the top of the ninth inning. It was a brutal start for New York that was well out of the playoff picture but finished with a 66-39 record since May 30, the best record in baseball. The Brewers were able to capture the National League Central which was arguably the worst division in baseball so they had the benefit of having a big lead for most of the second half. This is a team that relied on their bullpen throughout the season and while that is a huge asset in the playoffs, they are at a big disadvantage in the other categories. Luis Severino was held out of Game Two today against the Braves after the Mets clinched their playoff berth. The Mets are putting Severino in the No. 1 as he is coming off his best season since 2018 with a 3.91 ERA over 182 innings. He was not able to duplicate his strikeouts as he hit 7.96 K/9 which was the same as last season but he drastically cut his walk rate down from 3.43 to 2.97. Milwaukee finished with a K% of 23.6% which was No. 18 and third worst of all playoff teams. Freddy Peralta leads a Milwaukee rotation but that is a loose term as the Brewers rotation finished No. 24 in xFIP which is the worst among all playoff teams. Peralta did lead the rotation with a 3.93 xFIP but that is very average and his issue was allowing baserunners as his BB% of 9.4% was actually one of the better ones on the staff but overall, No. 54 of 57 qualified starters. He faces a tough Mets lineup that finished ranked in the top 10 in wRC+, ISO, wOBA and home runs. 10* (941) New York Mets | |||||||
09-30-24 | Mets +131 v. Braves | Top | 8-7 | Win | 131 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS Game 1 for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The scenario is pretty simple for both New York and Atlanta. Avoid a sweep today and they are in as Arizona would be eliminated with a win by each team as the Diamondbacks both tiebreakers. The Mets picked up a huge 5-0 win over the Brewers Sunday to get to this position thanks to a big game from Francisco Lindor who had been bothered by a lingering back issue but went 2-for-4 with a home run, a walk, two RBIs, two runs scored and two stolen bases. He can play another big role today. The Braves had their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with a 4-2 loss against the Royals ad the bats were once again quiet over the weekend as they scored only seven runs in the three-game set. The pitching has carried them for a while and one of those starters is involved today but this game will be treated different so any pitching edge they may think to have, they really do not and there actually is not the significant edge that this line is indicating. Spencer Schwellenbach got into the rotation in late May as a fill in because of injuries and it was unsure if he would last after a rocky start as he had a 5.86 ERA through his first six starts. He has completely turned it around as he has a 2.65 ERA over his last 14 starts since the start of July which is No. 9 among 60 qualified starters and his command has really reversed for the good. His 26.7% K% is No. 14 and his 22.6% K-BB% is No. 7. That all being said, this is his first playoff game, yes it is being treated as that with the season on the line, and this is a tough situation and he is laying too big of a price. Tylor Megill is in a similar spot making the biggest start of his career but we will gladly grab the big underdog who is pitching with even better form. He was out for a stretch in June and July but after a rough outing in his return, he has a 1.78 ERA since August 30 which is No. 17 in baseball out of 123 starters that have gone at least 20 innings. Over this stretch, his 27.5% K% is No. 25 and his 198.6% K-BB% is No. 31. 10* (901) New York Mets | |||||||
09-27-24 | Mets -1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS RL as part of our MLB Runline Double Play. This is the opener of a critical series for the Mets as they are tied with Arizona based on percentage and a game ahead of Atlanta for the No. 2 Wild Card spot in the National League so depending on the weekend, they could be extended into Monday. New York had won five of six before losing at Atlanta on Tuesday before the final two games were postponed and they need to get their offense going again after scoring 11 runs in their last four games. With the Dodgers win last night, the Brewers have been eliminated for having the best record in the National League and their playoff situation is locked in as they will open a Wild Card series at home starting on Tuesday. This puts them in a position where there will be rest and likely at bats for reserves to get ready for the postseason. The Brewers are now listed as underdogs as the Mets have a big edge in the pitching matchup. Sean Manaea opens this critical series for the Mets and he has been the best starter in the rotation over the last two months. 26 pitchers have thrown at least 60 innings since July 30 and he is No. 8 in xFIP at 3.20, No. 7 in ERA at 2.63 and No. 6 in K-BB% at 24.4 percent, all of which are best on the staff. Milwaukee has been average against lefties this season with a .714 OPS which is No. 14 in baseball and the Brewers have gone 22-23 against left-handed starters. Frankie Montas had a decent three-game run going but he got shelled in his last start against Arizona as he allowed eight runs, seven earned, on six hits in 2.2 innings and that included three home runs allowed. He has had a rough season between Cincinnati and Milwaukee as he has a 4.85 ERA and 1.37 WHIP across 29 starts. Among 76 starters going at least 140 innings, he is No. 64 in K-BB% at 12.4% in part due to a 9.9% BB% which is tied for No. 71. 10* (955) New York Mets -1.5 Runs | |||||||
09-27-24 | Marlins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 15-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS RL as part of our MLB Runline Double Play. It was a disappointing season for Toronto from the start but they can close strong at home with the Marlins coming to town and the goal is to finish over .500 as they are currently 39-39. The Blue Jays salvaged the series finale against the Red Sox which eliminated Boston from the postseason so that was satisfaction right there. The offense got nothing going early which put the Blue Jays in too deep of a hole but since the All Star Break, they have been top ten in OPS, ISO and wOBA. Miami played spoiler against the Twins as it took two of three which put Minnesota on the brink of elimination. The Marlins are still just 20 games under .500 on the road as they are the worst hitting National League team, tied with Pittsburgh with a .294 wOBA and tied with Washington with a .131 ISO. The pitching has not any better as their xFIP 4.36 is No. 26 while their 4.79 ERA is ahead of only the White Sox. Of their 49 road losses, 37 have been by two runs or more. Jose Berrios has been the best pitcher in the Toronto rotation all season and looks to close out strong in what has been a great run. Since August 9, he has a 1.51 ERA which is No. among 71 qualified starters while sitting No. 13 in xFIP at 3.37. His issue has been the home run as he has allowed 30 which is tied for second most in baseball but he faces a Marlins team that is tied for third lowest in home runs and has the second fewest road home runs in baseball. Adam Oller gets the ball for Miami and he has been inconsistent in his seven starts. He is coming off a couple decent outings against Washington and Arizona where he allowed five runs but went just 10.2 innings. This came after allowing 10 runs in two starts against the Pirates and Phillies across 10.1 innings and overall, he has a 5.06 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with the Marlins going 1-6 in those seven starts. 10* (978) Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Runs | |||||||
09-26-24 | Padres +108 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our Divisional Game of the Month. Both San Diego and Los Angeles are playing well down the stretch and the Padres are keeping the pressure on going 9-2 in their last 11 games and this is a must win for San Diego to remain in contention in the National League West. They have already clinched a Wild Card spot but a 4-3 loss last night really hurt but they will not go away easy. It is a short price for San Diego, partly due to their 46-31 road record which is the second best road record in baseball along with having the best record in baseball since June 21. The Dodgers scored the go ahead run in the sixth inning last night and the bullpen shut the door the rest of the way. They have used eight different relievers the last two nights and have not allowed a run over nine innings and they will be needed tonight which we should see some regression as the Dodgers bullpen has a 4.34 xFIP in September which is ranked No. 26. Ideally, they would love to clinch against their rivals but with three games against Pittsburgh upcoming, this one could be treated a little differently as there is little need to go all out on arms. The Padres rotation is back to full strength including workhorse Joe Musgrove was out for nearly three months which was probably a blessing in disguise. He has been great since his return August 12 with the exception of one bad start against the Giants which we can chalk up as an aberration as he allowed six runs including three home runs. In his other seven starts, he has a 0.91 ERA, allowing no runs in five of those, all being quality outings. After missing almost two months, Walker Buehler got back into the rotation around the same time as Musgrove and it has been an adventure. He has gone six innings only once and he has a 5.40 ERA in seven starts, allowing fewer than three runs only three times. The Dodgers have gone 4-3 but they have given him a ton of run support, at least five runs in each outing and an average of 6.9 rpg and he will not be having that luxury tonight. 10* (907) San Diego Padres | |||||||
09-25-24 | Orioles v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES RL as part of our MLB Wednesday Double Play. Baltimore clinched a playoff spot last night with a 5-3 win and celebrated like they just won the division and the Yankees are well aware and will take that personal. The Orioles are still alive for the American League East if they win out and id the Yankees get swept by the Pirates to close the season and that will not happen so the concession might already be there but nonetheless, expect the Yankees to play with some of the most motivation they have all season. New York slowly took control of the division as it was not playing very well but a 9-2 run since September 11 prior to last night gave them the cushion and the fact is Baltimore is still just 38-45 since June 21. The Yankees pitching has allowed nine runs over the last two games after giving up 10 runs over their previous six games so they need that again tonight against a lineup that will be unknown until later but will not be peaking at a high level. Nestor Cortes has had a very solid season with a 3.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 31 games and he has been solid of late, allowing one run or less in six of his last seven starts. He has been great at home with a 3.11 ERA and 1.00 WHIP thanks to a 4.0% BB% which is tied for No. 4 in baseball among pitchers throwing at least 80 innings. Baltimore has a .730 OPS since their regression June 21 which is No. 13 in baseball and they are not as strong overall against left-handed pitching. Zach Eflin has been solid since coming over to Baltimore with a 2.31 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight starts and will be an integral part come postseason. However, he has faced only one offense that has an OPS ranked in the top half of the league and that was the Red Sox and he faced them at home. Overall, he has not been as effective on the road with a 4.16 ERA. This is good spot for the Yankees to take this one personal and grab the value on the runline. 10* (968) New York Yankees -1.5 Runs | |||||||
09-25-24 | Reds v. Guardians -138 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Wednesday Double Play. Cleveland won the series opener 6-1 last night and it is still in contention for the best record in the American League but New York still has a game in hand with the Guardians being two games back in the loss column. While it may seen unlikely with the Yankees facing Pittsburgh to close the season, all the Guardians can do is try to win out and see what happens. They are now 49-28 at home which is the best record in the American League and they are at a reasonable price tonight. The Reds managerial change did little in the first game after David Bell was fired with the offense producing just one run on four hits. Cincinnati has lost two straight games to fall six games under .500 which is not horrible so it was a strange time for the switch and with nothing to play for except for next season, this is probably not a happy clubhouse. The Reds are middle of the league in both hitting and pitching and have a tough matchup tonight. Joey Cantillo is pitching to keep his team alive for the best record and for a possible spot on the playoff roster. He got off to an uneven start in his first four starts but he has posted a 1.00 ERA in one relief appearance and three starts since then and Cleveland has won all three of those starts. His overall numbers are inflated because of one of those earlier outings where he allowed seven runs against the Yankees in New York. Cincinnati is No. 27 with a .674 OPS against left-handed pitching and the Reds are just 16-26 against left-handed starters. Jakob Junis has been awesome since coming over to Cincinnati from the Brewers as he has a 2.75 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in four starts and nine relief appearances. The Reds have lost all four of those starts however as he has gotten no run support with a total of seven runs in those four games which is what we expect again here. 10* (976) Cleveland Guardians | |||||||
09-24-24 | Mets v. Braves -139 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Tuesday Double Play. The season for Atlanta likely comes down to this series as it trails the Mets by two games for the final Wild Card spot in the National League with six games left for each team. The Braves have their top three starters going in this series and grabbing this first game will be huge. Atlanta has won four of its last five to keep pace with New York and it has been the pitching leading the way as they have allowed 2.8 rpg over this stretch. The Mets have won six of their last seven games to take that two-game lead but all of those were at home. They have gone 10-9 over their last 19 road games but three of those were against the White sox so we can throw those out. The recent winning run has been a mix of both good hitting and pitching and while their bullpen came resurgent over the summer, they have a 3.77 ERA since September 1 which is No. 15 in baseball. Spencer Schwellenbach got into the rotation in late May as a fill in because of injuries and it was unsure if he would last after a rocky start as he had a 5.86 ERA through his first six starts. He has completely turned it around as he has a 2.77 ERA over his last 13 starts since the start of July which is No. 12 among 66 qualified starters and his command has really reversed for the good. His 27.7% K% is No. 16 and his 23.5% K-BB% is No. 9. Luis Severino has had a great bounce back season from 2023 with a 3.79 ERA but he had a run of 10 starts from mid-July through mid-August which was horrible as he posted a 5.66 ERA in those 10 outings and while he has allowed one run or less in four of his last six starts, two of those were against the Marlins and Reds. Among 56 qualified starters, he is No. 46 in K-BB% at 13.1% while his 4.16 xFIP is No. 44. 10* (906) Atlanta Braves | |||||||
09-24-24 | Orioles +142 v. Yankees | Top | 5-3 | Win | 142 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Tuesday Double Play. Baltimore has been a below average team for over three months now as they are 37-45 since June 21 and have dropped five straight series. They still hold down the top Wild Card spot in the American League and can clinch a berth with a win and losses by the Twins and Mariners while a loss will give the Yankees the American League East but the latter is more than likely done so they are more concerned about just getting in and holding down that top spot. Baltimore still has one of the best offenses in baseball with a .748 OPS which is ranked No. 5 and is even better on the road. The Yankees can clinch the division tonight so the number may be skewed slightly because of that but they are still in a race with Cleveland for the best record in the American League as they have a two-game lead over the Guardians. Their own offense is slightly ahead of Baltimore and while their pitching has been average all season, it has helped carry them to a 12-4 record over their last 16 games. One of those starters goes tonight as Clarke Schmidt has a 1.76 ERA in three starts since re-entering the rotation but two of those were against Oakland and Seattle, ranked No. 25 and No. 29 in OPS respectively. Dean Kremer has been inconsistent of late but he has allowed three runs or less in five of his last seven starts. One exception was a game in Colorado and the other came in his last outing at home against the Giants where he allowed two home runs after allowing only one home run in his previous nine starts. The long ball is always a concern when facing the Yankees and we are not expecting and exceptional start from him, just enough so the Orioles offense gives them a chance at a great price. 10* (915) Baltimore Orioles | |||||||
09-23-24 | Mariners v. Astros -129 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -129 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Seattle had its three-game winning streak snapped with a loss against Texas on Sunday and time is running out for the Mariners. They are five games out in the American League West so a loss here and they are eliminated from winning the division. They are still alive in the American League Wild Card as they sit two games out but the three teams they can reach are all playing teams who have favorable series to open the week. Despite taking two of three in Texas, Seattle is 34-44 on the road. As mentioned, the Astros can wrap up the American League West with a victory so they want to end it now and not prolong it especially with a closing series at Cleveland. Houston took three of four against the Angels over the weekend but had a bad loss on Sunday as it blew a 4-0 lead and allowed four runs in the ninth and its important as the bullpen was taxed against for the second time in three games so they will be counting on Hunter Brown to deep. He has pitched well all season and he bounced back with a quality outing against the Padres after a poor start against Oakland. He has a 3.49 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at home with the one thing hurting him the most being his K:BB ratio which he will not have to worry about here as Seattle is No. 5 in baseball in road strikeouts. He has a great matchup here as he has posted a 1.65 ERA in three starts against Seattle. Bryce Miller counters for the Mariners with their season on the line as he has been on a great stretch of eight straight starts allowing three runs or less. However, his two worst starts were on the road where he has a 4.44 ERA in 14 road starts compared to a 1.96 ERA at home. The difference has been the long ball as he has given up only six home runs at home but 15 dingers on the road. This includes two home runs here in his lone start. 10* (958) Houston Astros | |||||||
09-17-24 | Yankees v. Mariners +104 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Seattle is coming off a series win over Texas after taking the last three games to improve to 45-30 at home and the Mariners are back to four games behind Houston in the American League West. They still have three games at Houston later in the season but the six games prior to that are more pivotal so they can make up some ground beforehand and need to keep it going here at a great price. They are coming in as the underdog despite recent pitching form that should have them the favorites. The Yankees have increased their lead to three games over the Orioles in the American League East as there has been a four-game swing over the last 10 games for each team. New York took three of four against the rival Red Sox which is always good for a letdown and even more so having to head out west. Following a 10-run game against Kansas City eight days ago, the Yankees offense has put up just 2.8 rpg over their last six games. Bryan Woo has been great this season as long as he can stay healthy which hurt him last season but he has been fine this year and has posted a 2.38 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 19 starts after finally getting into the rotation in early May. He has allowed four runs only twice this season and surprisingly those both came against the Angels on the road, one of the worst offenses in baseball. Woo has a 1.66 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in eight home starts and that ERA is lowest in baseball among 161 pitchers that has thrown at least 40 innings at home. Luis Gil came out of the gates on fire in his rookie season as he posted a 2.03 ERA through his first 14 starts but he has struggled since then. Since June 20, he has a 4.85 ERA over 12 starts which is No. 113 among 151 starters that have gone at least 40 innings. His K% is down and his BB% is up and his K-BB% over this stretch is 11.6% which is No. 113 which has partially led to a 1.46 WHIP which is tied for No. 131. 10* (974) Seattle Mariners | |||||||
09-12-24 | Rangers +142 v. Mariners | Top | 5-4 | Win | 142 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Thursday Double Play. Seattle came through for us last night but we are fading the Mariners tonight as they have a disadvantage in facing a big league debut pitcher which is not being taken into consideration with this line. The Astros have been slumping of late and the Mariners have clawed back to get within 3.5 games in the American League West as they have won five of seven following a split with the Padres. Seattle has been great at home with a 42-29 record thanks to the best pitching metrics in the league which we are going against here. The Rangers were swept in Arizona in their two-game set which came after runs of 5-1 and 10-3 so while defending their World Series Championship is out of the question, they have been closing the season well. They were one of the better teams on the road prior to the All Star Break but came out on a 4-11 run before going 3-2 in their last five. Three pitchers allowed 14 runs yesterday against the scorching Diamondbacks offense and the bullpen is rested after an off day on Monday. Kumar Rocker will be making his much anticipated Major League debut and while Paul Skenes is the known Vanderbilt pitcher, it was Rocker who led the Commodores to the 2019 National Championship and Most Outstanding Player honors. He began the year pitching for the Rangers Rookie League club where he got the rust out before he was promoted to Double-A Frisco and then Triple-A Round Rock. In 29.2 innings over seven starts he struck out 47 while allowing just 17 baserunners and three runs for a 0.91 ERA where he was elevated as the No. 2 prospect in the organization. This is a great spot for his debut going up against an offense that has been better of late but is still No. 25 in baseball with a .676 OPS. Bryce Miller has been a big part of the success of the rotation as he has a 3.16 ERA through 28 starts and he has been even better at home which has led to the league-best pitching numbers. Part of that is because of who he has faced as in his last eight home starts, he has faced the Angels twice, the White Sox and the Rays where he allowed one run. 10* (913) Texas Rangers | |||||||
09-12-24 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS RL as part of our MLB Thursday Double Play. The Marlins came through again yesterday with just one ninth inning run and they remain on the road in another fade spot. The offense continues to sputter as the Marlins are averaging 4.3 rpg since July 28 and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .293 wOBA, .670 OPS and a .132 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 54 of 99 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been money the other way as they are now 10-41 while averaging 3.1 rpg with a .229 average and a .636 OPS, fourth and second worst in the league respectively and of those 41 losses, 36 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 3.7 rpg. The Nationals snapped a two-game skid with a win over the Braves on Wednesday and that also snapped a four-game home losing streak at which point it was a game over .500 at Nationals Park. Washington had allowed 38 runs during that four-game home skid so the effort last night from Jake Irvin and the bullpen was a surprise but they can carry that momentum into tonight against one of the worst offenses in baseball and one they have dominated, allowing 2.6 rpg in the first nine meetings of the season. Mitchell Parker is back home following an uneven outing in Pittsburgh as he allowed four runs over 3.1 innings which knocked his road ERA up to 6.25 to go along with a 1.61 WHIP so he has not been comfortable out of town. Pitching in Washington has been a different story as he brings in an ERA that is over three runs less at 3.04 and his 1.08 WHIP is tied for No. 19 among 56 qualified starters thanks to a 4.2% BB%, No. 10 among those 56 pitchers. Darren McCaughan is making his third start since entering the rotation after three relief appearances for the Marlins which came after a pair of stints out of the bullpen in Cleveland before he came over to Miami. He has not gotten blown up but he has not been very good either as he has a 5.19 ERA in those two starts and while both resulted in Miami wins, it was due to rare run support against right handed pitching. 10* (904) Washington Nationals -1.5 Runs | |||||||
09-11-24 | Padres v. Mariners -104 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB I.L. Game of the Month. Seattle is coming off a loss after a rare poor outing from George Kirby and they look to get it back tonight. They are now one game over .500 but are not done yet as they have gotten to within 4.5 games of Houston in the American League West. They still have three games at Houston later in the season but the 11 games prior to that are more pivotal so they can make up some ground beforehand. Seattle is 41-29 at home with its pitching leading the way as its 2.73 ERA, 3.10 FIP and 3.39 xFIP are all No. 1 baseball despite last night. The Padres have fallen off a little bit as they are just 6-6 over their last 12 games and have not been able to play catchup with the equally struggling Dodgers. They have fallen 4.5 games behind the Dodgers as the gap has widened after getting tight with Arizona in the mix as well. San Diego is a half-game up on the Diamondbacks in the National League Wild Card and they are back on the road with one of the best records in baseball at 42-29 and that is keeping this number close to even. Bryan Woo has been great this season as long as he can stay healthy which hurt him last season but he has been fine this year and has posted a 2.36 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 18 starts after finally getting into the rotation in early May. He has allowed four runs only twice this season and surprisingly those both came against the Angels on the road, one of the worst offenses in baseball. Woo has a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in seven home starts and that ERA is lowest in baseball among 152 pitchers that has thrown at least 40 innings at home. Michael King has been the surprise of the Padres rotation so they definitely got a solid piece in the Juan Soto trade. He has a 3.10 ERA in 27 starts and one relief appearance and he is No. 7 in all of baseball with a 28.2% K%. He has actually better on the road than at home and despite getting shut down last night, the Mariners offense has started to produce as they averaged 7.6 rpg in their previous five games. 10* (980) Seattle Mariners | |||||||
09-11-24 | Marlins v. Pirates -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 123 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Afternoon RL Dominator. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 4.1 rpg since July 28 and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .293 wOBA, .670 OPS and a .132 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 54 of 97 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been money the other way as they are 10-40 while averaging 3.1 rpg with a .229 average and a .636 OPS, third and second worst in the league respectively and of those 40 losses, 35 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 3.7 rpg. Pittsburgh has won the first two games of this series to make it three straight wins, all at home, and the Pirates now 36-38 at PNC Park and they have a good matchup to lock up their second sweep of the season against a team not named the White Sox, the first coming in their first series of the season against the Marlins. While facing Miami does not get teams too juiced up, sweeping the season series is a motivational factor nonetheless. Pittsburgh does not do anything great at home but has the big pitching edge. Bailey Falter was coming off a pair of poor outings but got right against Washington last time out even though he lasted only five innings. One of those bad starts came at home against the Reds which is just the second time in 12 home starts that he has allowed more than three runs with the other one coming against the Dodgers. Take those two out and he has posted a 3.04 ERA in his other 10 home outings. The home run hurt him early this season as he gave up 11 in his first 12 starts and has only allowed four in his last 12 starts and Miami does not have that pop as their 60 home runs on the road are third fewest in baseball. Jonathan Bermudez rejoined the active roster after being sent down to Jacksonville just four days ago and he will likely serve just as the opener today. He allowed two earned runs in 3.2 innings during his MLB debut August 27 and then allowed one run in one inning in his only other appearance on September 8 after getting recalled. This could change as the day goes along but no matter who gets the start or who goes in bulk relief, the Marlins have a 5.42 ERA since August 1, the worst in baseball. 10* (952) Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Runs | |||||||
09-10-24 | Reds v. Cardinals -127 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -127 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Cincinnati closed the weekend with a series loss in New York against the Mets then had to travel to Atlanta yesterday for a makeup of a postponement that did result in a 1-0 win and then had to hit the road again for this series in St. Louis. The Reds have won three of their last five games but their bats have been invisible as they have scored a total of nine runs over those five games. This includes eight runs in four road games and this is going along with their typical road production as their .686 road OPS is No. 21 while their 91 wRC+ is tied for sixth lowest in baseball. From a bullpen standpoint, they will be without closer Alexis Diaz who has pitched four of the last five days including the last two. The Cardinals had the day off following a series loss against Seattle and the rest comes at a good time as the bullpen had to go seven innings Sunday following a horrible two innings from starter Miles Mikolas. St. Louis was coming off series wins over the Brewers (twice), Yankees and Twins and a series split with the Padres so they were on a run and remain home where they are three games over .500 where they are right in the middle of the pack in both hitting and pitching metrics. Andre Pallante has been solid since entering the rotation in late May as he has a 3.81 ERA over 16 starts which is No. 34 in baseball among 84 starters that have tossed at least 80 pitches. He is coming off a poor start against Milwaukee where he allowed five runs over five innings as he was hurt by two home runs after allowing only five in through his first 15 outings. That was the fifth start he has allowed four or more runs and in the first four follow up starters after those, he has posted a combined 0.77 ERA covering 23.1 innings. The lack of home runs allowed is not a fluke as he is not a strike out pitcher but creates a ton of ground balls and his GB% of 61.6% is best in baseball of those 84 starters. Reds rookie Rhett Lowder is still somewhat of an unknown as he has made just two big league starts but both have been great as he has allowed only one run over 10.1 innings. He made a quick ascent to Cincinnati after just 22 Minor League starts and while it is a small sample size, he has the highest BB% and just a 2.2% K-BB% and overall regression is expected as his 5.37 xFIP is No. 81 out of 85 starters over the last two weeks. 10* (906) St. Louis Cardinals | |||||||
09-09-24 | Orioles +107 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our Monday Double Play. Baltimore came out of the All Star Break with a pair or blowout wins over Texas and since then, the Orioles have been a below average team going 22-24 following a pair of losses against Tampa Bay over the weekend to close out their homestand and they did so by scoring one run over those two games. Baltimore has now scored four runs in its last four games and it come into tonight as the underdog as they have still dominated the division with a 29-17 record while their 40-29 road record is third best in baseball. Boston took two of three against the White Sox to open its six-game homestand but the Sunday loss dropped the Red Sox to 33-39 at home which is ahead of only the White Sox and Angels in the entire American League. They remain four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League and they have seen Detroit and Seattle overtake them so the hopes are getting slimmer. The pitching carried them for a while but the Red Sox have been one of the worst staffs in all of baseball with a 4.99 ERA since August 1 which includes a 6.24 ERA from the bullpen, easily the worst in baseball. Brayan Bello got off to a rough start but was on a solid run since mid-July as he had allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts including four at home but two came against Texas and Kansas City which are in the bottom half of the league in road OPS. He has since made two home starts against Arizona and Toronto with mixed results and he now has a 4.92 ERA at home and his command remains an issue as his 11.3% K-BB% is tied for No. 54 among 61 qualified starters. Cade Povich was brought back up two weeks ago after a rough time in Baltimore prior to being demoted as between June 6 and July 29, he made eight starts, posting a 6.27 ERA with 25 strikeouts and 23 walks over 37.1 innings. He looked good down in Norfolk in his two starts prior to the callup and he was solid in his first start against Boston and while he struggled against the Astros and Dodgers in back-to-back starts he bounced back against the White Sox, which we are not taking too much from, but it was a confidence boost and faces a Boston team 16-24 against lefty starters. 10* (959) Baltimore Orioles | |||||||
09-09-24 | Reds v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES RL as part of our Monday Double Play. The Braves were finally able to gain some ground in the National League Wild Card as their 4-3 win coupled with the 3-1 Mets loss, they got back into a tie with New York for the final spot. Atlanta remains home where it is now 40-30 and closes out this homestand with this makeup game from a July 23 postponement and this is the final home game of the season against a team that is not currently in a playoff spot so this should be the runaway. Of their 78 wins, 62 have been by two runs or more and by an average of 4.2 rpg and the Sunday win snapped a streak of eight straight wins by two runs or more. This is the value play tonight with the pitching matchup as of the 13 Atlanta wins with Charlie Morton on the hill, 11 have been by two runs or more and overall, by an average of 3.2 rpg. The Reds won that 3-1 game against the Mets to avoid the sweep and while we were on them there, we are backing off them here as the line yesterday was just a bad inflated number. Cincinnati has not been horrible on the road as it is now three games under .500 but they are below average in the bottom third percentile in most hitting metrics on the road and the other side has not been much better and the splits go against this pitching matchup tonight. The Braves are No. 2 in baseball with a 3.53 ERA with Chris Sale playing a big part of that but Morton has done his share of late as after getting rocked by Milwaukee for eight runs, he has allowed three runs or less in his last five outings where he has a 3.25 ERA and his strikeout numbers have increased considerably as he has 36 over this stretch, easily his best five-game run of the season. While it is a small sample size, his 30.3% K% is No. 7 among 74 qualified starters and faces an offense that is the seventh highest in K%% since July 1. Nick Martinez got back into the rotation in early August and he did not allow a run in his first two starts covering 12 innings but he has been all over the place since then as he has posted a 5.55 ERA over his last five starts and has not been able to get out of the fifth inning in his last four outings. That ERA is No. 67 among 72 qualified starters since August 16 while his 10.0% K-BB% is ranked No. 65. 10* (954) Atlanta Braves -1.5 Runs | |||||||
09-08-24 | Diamondbacks +128 v. Astros | Top | 12-6 | Win | 128 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Sunday Double Play. We played on Arizona as well on Saturday and while the bats were more effective following getting shut out on Friday, the bullpen was done in by a horrible effort from Dylan Floro. The 11-5 loss made it three straight defeats and the Diamondbacks remain a game and a half behind the Padres for the top spot in the National League Wild Card. While the six-run loss yesterday seems extreme, Arizona was outhit only 13-10 and it still leads the National League in OPS and since the All Star Break, it leads all of baseball with an .834 OPS, .207 ISO and .358 wOBA. Houston has now won two straight games following a three-game losing streak which came after a five-game winning streak so it has been an up and down stretch and their lead in the American League West now sits at 5.5 games with 20 games to play. The pitching shut down the Royals in four straight games and then shut out the Diamondbacks in a five-game home stretch but they did get tagged on Saturday and will be vulnerable once again in the favorite role with a public arm throwing. We played against Justin Verlander in his last start and will do so again while the play against value is still there and despite posting a 6.93 ERA over his last five starts, the public money is on him again. He has been limited to 13 starts this season and is finally showing his age and regression. When he won the Cy Young in 2022, his fastball velocity and K% were 95 and 27.8% and now they are down to 93.2 and 20.5%. In 2022 his xFIP of 3.23 was top 10 among qualified starters and this season, it is 5.03 which currently is No. 131 out of 137 starters that have tossed at least 70 innings. This is a lineup that can tag him again. Ryne Nelson is going through his best five-game stretch of the season as he has posted a 2.48 ERA over his last five starts, allowing two runs or less in all five outings. He now has a 4.15 ERA which is not great but his underlying numbers are above average and he is pitched well above his numbers from last season. He has pitched one inning less than his 144 innings from last season and his K% is considerably up while his BB% is considerably down. 10* (923) Arizona Diamondbacks | |||||||
09-08-24 | Reds +185 v. Mets | Top | 3-1 | Win | 185 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
This is play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Sunday Double Play. The Mets have won nine straight games following a 4-0 victory on Saturday highlighted by a solid start from Luis Severino and the bullpen came up big again but they will be without Edwin Diaz who has pitched the last two games. The pitching has been outstanding over this winning stretched as New York has allowed only 1.8 rpg over this stretch. They have been able to gain ground on the Braves in the National League Wild Card as they have taken a one game lead which is also now factoring into the number. The Reds have lost two straight games following a four-game winning streak and they have fallen four games under .500 which is far from horrible and after closing as a +131 underdog on Saturday, they are as high as +180 in some spot today in basically the same pitching matchup. The Mets last defeat came with Luis Severino on the hill and while he did not get the loss, he pitched like he should have. Three of his last four starts have been solid but he had a run of 10 starts prior to that which was horrible as he posted a 5.66 ERA in those 10 outings and got back to that regression two starts back against Arizona where he allowed four runs in 4.2 innings. Overall, his ERA is at 3.84 which is certainly serviceable but among 56 qualified starters, he is No. 50 in K-BB% at 12.2% while his 4.23 xFIP is No. 46. Julian Aguiar is certainly not a step above Severino but he is right in line in more limited action but he should not be this much of an underdog as it is based on playing a public team as the Mets on a huge winning streak. He pitched well in his first two Major League starts with a 3.60 ERA but he was lit up against Oakland two starts back which they have been doing to a lot of pitchers the last two months and while he went just 2.2 innings in his last start, he was pitching on only three days of rest because of an injury ravaged rotation and now he is on six days off. His slider has been particularly effective which he has used to limit hard contact and this has been evident in his rise throughout the Minors where he posted a 1.16 WHIP over 77 career games. 10* (905) Cincinnati Reds | |||||||
09-07-24 | Reds +140 v. Mets | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
This is play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Saturday Double Play. The Mets have won eight straight games following a 6-4 victory last night in 10 innings and this is the first time we are stepping in front of them since the first game of this winning streak when they won the game in the ninth inning. They are clearly a public betting team and now even more so during this run and this is the spot to fade as the pitching has led the way, allowing only 2.0 rpg over this stretch. They have been able to gain ground on the Braves in the National League Wild Card as they are now tied. Cincinnati had its four-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night which included a home sweep of the Astros. The season has not gone well for the Reds which came in with some high expectations but it was a young roster and while it remained in the playoff mix for a while, it was never able to get anything going with the recent winning streak tied for the biggest since way back in June. The offense has been average but they have a great matchup tonight in a solid fade spot. Going against Jose Quintana has been very profitable of late and now he is laying a number that is skewed because of his two most recent starts. He shut out San Diego for 6.1 innings which is even more shocking considering he did not strike out a single hitter and his last outing was against the hapless White Sox. His ERA is now at 4.27 but he has a 5.01 FIP and 4.72 xFIP which are No. 58 and No. 56 respectively among 59 qualified starters. He has been fortunate with a great Strand Rate as hid BB% is fourth worst, his K% is fifth worst and his K-BB% of 8.8% is ahead of only Marcus Stroman. Jakob Junis gets another start as he is coming off a great first start since coming over from Milwaukee as he shut out Oakland over four innings and then followed that up with a 3.2-inning relief appearance against Milwaukee, allowing just one run on two hits. Overall, he has a 3.13 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 46 innings and in 10 games with the Reds, he has a 15:1 K:BB ratio. He was slated to go bulk relief last night but instead was pushed to this spot and is certainly a live dog. 10* (951) Cincinnati Reds | |||||||
09-07-24 | Diamondbacks +145 v. Astros | Top | 5-11 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
This is play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Saturday Double Play. Arizona is coming off a rare shutout last night as they were blanked 8-0 while managing only two hits in the process. This is only the fourth time the Diamondbacks have been shut out this season and they have gone 2-1 in the previous three follow up games and they have faced elite pitching in those games. Despite the offensive troubles last night, Arizona still leads the National League in OPS and since the All Star Break, it leads all of baseball with a .836 OPS, .208 ISO and .359 wOBA. Houston snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory which came after a five-game winning streak as they were able to build a comfortable lead in the American League West which now sits at 4.5 games with 21 games to play. The pitching has buoyed the team of late at home as they completely shut the Royals down by allowing nine runs over a four-game set but this is not the spot to keep it going and especially at this overpriced number with a starter due for negative regression. Yusei Kikuchi has been a solid addition to the Houston rotation since he was acquired from Toronto as he has posted a 2.57 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in six starts. He is coming off his first quality outing however as he not been able to get through six innings which is not necessarily a problem as he does have a solid bullpen behind him but the price in starting to get overinflated in his starts with the Astros going 6-0. This is the biggest number he has been with and it comes against one of the top offenses in baseball coming off their worst game. Eduardo Rodriguez has not been the pitcher the Diamondbacks were banking on after retuning from a lat injury that delayed his debut with the team until the beginning of August. It has not been horrible but it just has not been his old stuff as he has a 5.33 ERA and 1.38 WHIP which are his worst numbers since his final season in Boston. In his last start against the Dodgers, it was his first time failing to complete five innings yet he has been serviceable since coming off the IL with three runs or fewer given up in four of his five starts. 10* (973) Arizona Diamondbacks | |||||||
09-06-24 | Blue Jays +155 v. Braves | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. Toronto has dropped three straight games and it hits the road following an off day and this is a good spot for a bounce back. They are catching a big number based on overall results and not recent form from both the offense and the starting pitching. The Blue Jays are middle of the road on offense but since the trade deadline when they have settled into their current offense, they have been solid with a 115 wRC+ which is No. 5 in baseball while their .327 wOBA and .761 OPS are No. 7 and their .187 ISO is No. 4. The Braves continue to try and hold off the red hot Mets, which have won seven straight games, for the final Wild Card spot in the National League but they are now tied following a 3-1 loss to Colorado on Thursday. The offense has struggled as the Braves have averaged 2.2 rpg over their last five games and since August 15, their OPS, ISO and wOBA are all in the bottom third percentile as injuries continue to plague the top of the lineup. Max Fried is coming off a decent outing against the Phillies as he allowed three runs over seven innings but we do not think he is still totally right. He has been less consistent and since returning from injury, he has not looked the same as he has a 4.96 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in six starts while posting a 35:16 K:BB ratio. His struggles go back further with his command as since June 11, he has a 9.6% BB% which is No. 90 among 103 starters that have gone at least 60 innings and he has another tough one here. Kevin Gausman is not having a good season with a 4.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, easily his worst numbers since coming to Toronto. His strikeout rate is down significantly which has been the main problem. Many are blaming his velocity being down but that is not the case as his fastball has gone from 94.7 to 93.9 while his breaking ball velocity has gone from 83.6 to 83.0 so while both are down, they are not down enough to make a difference. Despite the struggles and what has been a tough season, he is pitching his best right now as he has a 2.20 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his last five starts and he is catching a number with a lot of it based on overall form as mentioned but also just the public backing of the Braves. 10* (923) Toronto Blue Jays | |||||||
09-06-24 | Rays +126 v. Orioles | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Friday Double Play. Baltimore could not complete the sweep against the White Sox as it lost 8-1 on Wednesday which snapped a three-game winning streak. The Orioles remain a half-game ahead of the Yankees in the American League East and we expect the bats to struggle again. They put up 28 runs during that three-game winning streak but those were against the Rockies and White Sox, the two worst pitching staffs in baseball and they face a tough starter tonight and an even tougher bullpen. Since August 1, their .715 OPS in No. 18 in baseball. Tampa Bay is coming off a disappointing 3-4 homestand to fall back to one game under .500 which puts them 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Rays playoff hopes are likely done as its inconsistent offense last month has carried over into September but the pitching has kept them afloat. Since August 1, their 3.54 team ERA is No. 6 while their 1.22 WHIP is No. 9 and this is due to the resurgent bullpen that is ranked No. 1 and No. 3 respectively. Shane Baz gets the ball for the Rays and he has been a great addition to the rotation. He is coming off another solid start against the Padres as he allowed a two-run homer in the first inning and then rebounded with four scoreless frames before being lifted at 78 pitches. It was his first start after being scratched with the flu last Sunday, and he has now allowed three runs or less in six of seven outings since the All-Star break and this includes three starts on the road against some potent offenses in the Astros, Athletics and Yankees. On the season, he has a 3.49 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 41:20 K:BB across 49 innings. Dean Kreamer is still hoping to be counted on in the postseason for the Orioles but he has been inconsistent. He was out for about six weeks and came back in early July and was able to shut down a really bad offense in Seattle but has struggled since then as he has posted a 5.15 ERA over his last 10 starts and that RA in No. 62 among 72 pitchers tossing at least 60 innings since July 9. His command is horrible as he has an 18.1% K% and a 10.3% BB% which equates to a 7.8% K-BB% which is No. 69 among those 72 pitchers. 10* (911) Tampa Bay Rays | |||||||
09-05-24 | Nationals v. Pirates -112 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our National League Game of the Year. The Pirates took the first two games against the Cubs to open the week but the offense got completely handcuffed last night as they were no-hit by Chicago, seven innings from Shota Imanaga and an inning each from Nate Pearson and Porter Hodge. They head home where they are four games under .500 and rising a three-game home losing streak which happened to come against the Cubs, an offense they have been unable to solve here as they are 1-5 and have allowed 10.3 rpg in those six games but they have a much better matchup tonight in a great bounce back spot. The three other teams that were no-hit this season all bounced back to win the next day. The Nationals are coming off a split with Miami as the offense got shut down by Valente Bellozo who was coming into the game in awful form at home and this offense continues to struggle. They remain on the road where they have dropped 11 of their last 15 games and the offense overall had been bad as their .130 road ISO is No. 25. They do not have a great matchup tonight to bounce back against as Washington has a .657 OPS against left-handed pitching which is No. 26 in baseball while its .289 wOBA is No. 27 and it gets even worse as the National have a .125 ISO which is ahead of only the White Sox. Bailey Falter is coming off a pair of poor outings but he has that matchup against the Washington bats to get right. One of those bad starts came at home against the Reds which was just the second time in 11 home starts that he has allowed more than three runs with the other one coming against the Dodgers. Take those two out and he has posted a 2.98 ERA in his other nine home outings. The home run hurt him early this season as he gave up 11 in his first 12 starts and has only allowed three in his last 11 starts and Washington does not have that pop as their 50 home runs on the road are dead last in the league. Jake Irvin is coming off one of his worst starts of the season as he allowed seven runs over 4.2 innings against the Cubs which concluded a poor August where he posted a 6.61 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in six starts. He entered the month at 128.1 innings for the season which tied him for the most innings he has ever pitched in a season when he went 128.1 innings for Hagerstown in Single-A in 2019 and ended up having Tommy John surgery that fall. He went 121 innings last season for the Nationals so August has put him at a career high and this is where the arm fatigue is now an issue which definitely showed last month. 10* (956) Pittsburgh Pirates | |||||||
09-04-24 | Mariners v. A's +128 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. We played Oakland on Sunday and Mason Miller of all pitchers let us down as he was stretched out for over one inning and that was too much at the time. The Athletics have bounced back with two one-run wins to open this series, Miller not going in either game, and they come in as the underdog once again. Since July 1, Oakland is 31-22 which is the seventh best record in baseball over that stretch and they can thank the offense as since the start of July, they are No. 3 in wRC+ at 121 and wOBA at .332. Seattle has lost four straight games to drop one game under .500 so the managerial change has done them no good as their playoff hopes are gone. The Mariners have been awful on the road at 28-42 and are still overpriced so absolutely no reason as this team has given up going up against a young roster that is simply having fun. Seattle is ahead of only the Marlins and White Sox in wOBA at .295 while its .666 OPS is second to last and the splits are just as bad. The Mariners are No. 28 in OPS against lefties at .654 and their .290 wOBA is not much better which is No. 26. JP Sears brings in a 4.21 ERA and a 4.29 xERA so he is pitching right to expectation and following a poor outing where he allowed five runs in 3.2 innings against the Brewers, he bounced back with a quality start against Texas, allowing one run over seven innings. He has allowed five runs or more five times but those were against Milwaukee, Houston, Minnesota, Baltimore and Cleveland all of which are in the top half of baseball in OPS against lefties. Seattle is not as it has a .654 OPS which is third worst. His 3.06 ERA since July 1 is No. 22 in baseball among 87 pitchers tossing at least 50 innings while his 4.5% BB% is No. 14. George Kirby came out of the All Star Break with a pair of great starts but he has been laboring since then as his strikeouts are down yet his pitches per inning have gone up as he is pushing 20 after averaging around 15 prior to that. He has an 8.01 ERA over his last six starts and has made it six innings only once while allowing nine home runs over this stretch. He has been below average on the road this season with a 4.17 ERA and this is where the long ball has hurt as he has given up 17 compared to just three at home and Oakland has hit the fifth most home runs in baseball this season. 10* (920) Oakland Athletics | |||||||
09-04-24 | Red Sox v. Mets -102 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Mets are doing their best to hang around in the National League Wild Card as they are keeping pace with the Braves, sitting a half-game behind Atlanta for the final spot following their sixth straight win and now they come in as the underdog tonight going up against a pitcher and a staff that is bottoming out. New York improved to 75-64 and while the offense has carried them most of the season, the pitching has been lights out during this winning streak, allowing only 1.5 rpg and the starters have been going deep. Boston has dropped four straight games and it is now 4.5 games out in the American League Wild Card standings and it is only that low because the Royals have been playing worse. There has been no offense during this stretch as the Red Sox have scored five runs over the four games but the other side has been much worse over a longer stretch. They have been better on the road but after starting 29-17 in their first 46 road games, they are just 10-14 on the highway since the All Star Break. The Boston pitching has been awful since the All Star Break and that includes Tanner Houck. As a team, the Red Sox have a 5.34 ERA which is ahead of only the White Sox while their 5.17 FIP is worst in baseball. As for Houck, he was solid before the break with a 2.69 FIP and 3.18 xFIP, both No. 8 among 71 qualified starters but since the break, his 4.94 FIP is No. 62 and his 4.73 xFIP in No. 65 among 72 qualified starters. One word, fatigue. His 105 innings pitched leading up to the break were one inning shy of his total innings pitched from last season so he is well over that and it is showing. The bullpen behind him has not done much to help as its 5.56 FIP and 4.61 xFIP are dead last in the league. Tylor Megill was sent down to the Minors at the end of June to deal with command issues and it was a break he needed as he lit it up in three starts and while the competition played a big role in that, it was more about confidence. His first start back was not good as he allowed four runs against the Braves but that was due to three home runs and he has allowed only two runs over 7.1 innings in one start and one relief appearance since then. He still has awesome metrics as his 26.5% K% is tied for No. 29 among 159 pitchers that have thrown at least 50 innings. 10* (926) New York Mets | |||||||
09-04-24 | Nationals -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS RL as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. We are going back to the well again tonight as Miami lost yet again to a lefty and now that the oddsmakers have the correct team favored, we are going value with the runline. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 4.0 rpg since July 28 and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .292 wOBA, .669 OPS and a .132 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 51 of 90 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been money the other way as they are 9-39 while averaging 3.0 rpg with a .230 average and a .643 OPS, third and second worst in the league respectively and of those 39 losses, 34 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 3.8 rpg. Washington rebounded from getting swept against the Cubs with the 6-2 win and when Patrick Corbin and a below average bullpen shuts you down, you know your offense is bad. The Nationals have had their struggles this season and are still 14 games under .500 but have been cashing runlines at a solid clip. They have only 13 one run wins which is third fewest in baseball so 49 of their 62 wins have been by more than one run and their 77-61 runline record is second best in baseball. If nothing else, McKenzie Gore has been consistent this season. Last year, he made 27 starts with a 4.42 ERA in 136.1 innings with 151 strikeouts. This year through 27 starts, he has a 4.45 ERA through 137.2 innings with 146 strikeouts. This shows he is just an average bottom of the rotation arm but this is not your every day matchup. His command away from Nationals Park has been above average as his 7.0% BB% is No. 45 out of 111 pitchers tossing at least 50 innings on the road. Valente Bellozo has been a pleasant addition to the rotation as he has a 4.32 ERA through his first eight starts and this is now just his fourth home outing where he has a 5.87 ERA in his first three games in Miami. Like other Miami starters, run support has hurt him as the Marlins have averaged only 3.3 rpg in seven starts taking out the game at Coors Field. He has a low K% of 17.8% which is No. 148 among 178 starters going at least 40 innings while Washington as a team has a 20.3% K% against righties, No. 7 in baseball. 10* (901) Washington Nationals -1.5 Runs | |||||||
09-03-24 | Cardinals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS RL as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Milwaukee took the opener of this series on Monday with a 9-3 win to make it six wins in their last seven games as they are just on cruise control heading into the postseason. The Brewers have a 10-game lead in the National League Central but there is no easing up as Milwaukee is just 2.5 games behind the Phillies for the best record in the National League so it is very much still in play for the top seed which will be huge in the playoffs with then, Philadelphia and Los Angeles all dominating at home. St. Louis took two of three games against the Yankees in New York but it caught the back some good pitching matchups as it scored 20 runs in the two wins. The Cardinals are back to .500 and still having a glimmer of hope for a Wild Card spot but they are 5.5 games out and would have to pass the Cubs, Mets and Braves but six of their final seven series are against non-playoff contenders including all three on the road where they are 35-39. Steven Matz was activated from the 60-day injured list Sunday and available out of the bullpen for the Cardinals game against the Yankees but he was not used. The Cardinals have opted to give him a spot start while they push other rotation members back. After four months off with a back injury, he made six outings at Triple-A last month without any further setbacks, but with mixed results with a 4.29 ERA and 18.9% K% so he will not be overworked and will give way to a bullpen whose active arms have a 4.13 xFIP since June 1 which is No. 24 while their 12.5% K-BB% checks in at No. 27. Aaron Civale was acquired by the Brewers from Tampa Bay in July and he will be a massive part come playoff time as their No. 1 or No. 2. He struggled with the Rays as he posted a 5.07 ERA in 17 starts and he was just not a good fit there when they got him mid-season last year but he has pitched well since coming here. He was thrown into the fire with an opening start at the Dodgers but he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his eight starts since then including four straight where his ERA is 1.93. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Runs | |||||||
09-03-24 | Guardians v. Royals +106 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Kansas City came up small for us last night but we are backing them again not wanting to miss that breakout game. The Royals opened last week by winning the first three games against Cleveland in their four-game series but they lost the finale 7-5 and have now dropped six straight games, scoring a total of 11 runs over their last five games. Kansas City got to the top of the American League Central but gave it all back and now it needs to get it back again as it trails the Guardians by 4.5 games and despite the output last night, they Royals trail only Minnesota and New York in the American League in home OPS. Cleveland won its series against Pittsburgh over the weekend to conclude a 5-5 homestand and now it hits the road where the Guardians are still just two games over .500. The offense did not do much last night and expect less tonight as they are now 51-48 against right-handed starters compared to 28-11 against lefty starters and their .678 road OPS in No. 23 in baseball. Brady Singer had a great 2022 season as he posted a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 27 games but he regressed considerably last season as he had a 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 29 starts but he has gotten his command back and will be an integral part in the Royals postseason. He has a 3.36 ERA through 27 starts and he has been dominant at home with a 2.88 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 14 starts and that ERA is No. 12 among 54 qualified starters with enough home innings. He has allowed only five home runs here which is No. 4. Tanner Bibee will be playing a big role for Cleveland come playoff time as well but he has been showing some negative regression. He has allowed nine runs over his last two starts covering 10.2 innings and this could be what is to come as in his last start, he surpassed his 142 innings pitched from last season and this is now the most innings he has thrown including college and in the Minors. That is something to keep an eye on and his recent struggles are not ideal coming to this ballpark and facing a team ready to break out. 10* (966) Kansas City Royals | |||||||
09-03-24 | Nationals +102 v. Marlins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 102 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Miami is coming off a solid roadtrip where it went 4-3 including a series win against San Francisco over the weekend. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 4.1 rpg since July 28 and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .292 wOBA, .668 OPS and a .133 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 50 of 89 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been money the other way as they are 9-38 while averaging 3.0 rpg with a .230 average and a .643 OPS, third and second worst in the league and of those 38 losses, 33 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 3.7 rpg. And now they are favored in some shops for tonight. Following a series win over the Yankees, the Nationals could not keep the momentum going as they were swept at home by the Cubs as the pitching did a complete 180, allowing nine runs against New York but giving up 26 runs against Chicago. Overall, Washington is 10 games better than Miami and four games better in the home/road splits yet the price does not dictate that and there is no starting pitching advantage the other way. Patrick Corbin is having a typical Patrick Corbin season as his ERA is well over 5.00 for the fourth consecutive season, he has double digit losses and his strikeout rate is one of the worst in baseball. This is a take spot based on the matchup and his recent form has been solid with a 2.20 ERA over his last three starts with two of those coming against the Yankees and Phillies. His road struggles are evident but it is just a handful of efforts doing him in as he has allowed three runs or less in six of his last nine. Max Meyer was limited in Triple-A Jacksonville as he was capped at four innings or less in his first 10 starts and his first seven starts since getting recalled have not been good, posting a 7.08 ERA. There have been 91 starting pitchers since July 27 tossing at least 30 innings and he is dead last in ERA Overall, he has a 7.6% K-BB% which is seventh worst while his 2.62 HR/9 in No. 90. 10* (951) Washington Nationals | |||||||
09-02-24 | Red Sox +109 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. Boston was unable to make up any ground in the American League Wild Card as it lost two of three to open this roadtrip. They trail the Royals and Twins by 4.5 games and despite two losses in Detroit where they scored only two runs, they continue to play exceptional on the road as they are now 38-29 and they are second in baseball with a .768 OPS on the road. The Mets are coming off a 7-3 roadtrip that was bolstered by a sweep against the White Sox over the weekend and we all know that is not hard to do. New York is 73-64 and like the Red Sox, they are fighting in the Wild Card as they too are on the outside looking in, trailing the Braves by one game so that sweep in Chicago was needed. The Mets head home where they are just two games over .500 and in the bottom half of the league in home OPS. Luis Severino has had a great bounce back season from 2023 and while he was is coming off a pair of solid outings, one was against the hapless Marlins and he had a run of 10 starts prior to that which was horrible as he posted a 5.66 ERA in those 10 outings and got back to that regression in his last start against Arizona where he allowed four runs in 4.2 innings. Overall, his ERA is at 3.96 which is not horrible but among 60 qualified starters, he is No. 51 in K-BB% at 12.3% while his 4.22 xFIP is No. 48. Brayan Bello got off to a rough start but was on a solid run since mid-July as he has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts but got crushed two starts back against Arizona which put his ERA at 5.54 ERA at home but he bounced right back as he tossed eight shutout innings against Toronto. He has managed to stay out of trouble with timely ground balls and an 87 Strand Rate which shows there has been luck involved but we love the fact that over that seven-game stretch, three were on the road and those were against the Dodgers, Royals and Orioles. 10* (921) Boston Red Sox | |||||||
09-02-24 | Guardians v. Royals -104 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. The Royals opened last week by winning the first three games against Cleveland in their four-game series but they lost the finale 7-5 and then went to Houston and got swept in that four-game series as the offense could muster only nine runs total. Kansas City got to the top of the American League Central but gave it all back and now it needs to get it back again as it trails the Guardians by 3.5 games. The Royals are back home where they are 41-28. Cleveland won its series against Pittsburgh over the weekend to conclude a 5-5 homestand and now it hits the road where the Guardians are just one game over .500. The thing to do is to fire right-handed pitching at them as they are 50-48 against right-handed starters compared to 28-11 against lefty starters. Over the last six seasons, Michael Wacha has pitched for six different teams with 2019-2021 being disaster seasons but the last three have been great and extremely consistent. He surpassed 400 innings in the recent three seasons in his last start and he has a 3.35 ERA and he has accumulated 36 wins after winning only 10 games the prior three seasons. This season, he has a 3.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP through 24 starts and he has pitched better at home with a 3.13 ERA, allowing three runs or less in 10 of 11 outings and taking the one blowup against the Rangers out and his ERA is 2.26 in those other 10 games. Gavin Williams was exceptional when he entered the rotation last season as he posted a 3.29 ERA in 16 starts but he has been all over the place of late. He got back into the rotation in July and in his 11 starts, he has a 4.99 ERA and 1.41 WHIP and this includes a 6.56 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over his last five starts. To his credit, he has been much better on the road than at home but in six road outings, his three best were against Detroit twice and Tampa Bay which are No. 25 and No. 28 in hope OPS respectively while Kansas City is No. 4. 10* (910) Kansas City Royals | |||||||
09-02-24 | Astros v. Reds +146 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 146 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. Houston is coming off a four-game home sweep of the Royals and has won five straight games to take a six-game lead over the Mariners in the American League West. The pitching has been lights out over this stretch as they have allowed just nine runs during those five games, flirting with a couple no-hitters along the way, but the starter tonight was not part of that run. The Astros are three games over .500 on the road which is certainly good but they are laying a bigger than expected number and are overpriced coming off that sweep. Cincinnati salvaged the series finale against Milwaukee as it avoided the four-game sweep and the Reds are now eight games under .500 after flirting with a potential playoff run. They have been better at home from an offensive standpoint and have a chance to do some damage tonight. Justin Verlander is still being priced like 2022 Cy Young Winner Justin Verlander and not the current pitcher. He has been limited to 12 starts this season and while the Astros want him in the postseason since that is where he shines, he is finally showing his age and regression. When he won the Cy Young in 2022, his fastball velocity and K% were 95 and 27.8% and now they are down to 93.2 and 21.4%. In 2022 his xFIP of 3.23 was top 10 among qualified starters and this season, it is 4.87 which currently is No. 135 out of 147 starters that have tossed at least 60 innings. Julian Aguiar is certainly not a step above Verlander but he is right in line in more limited action but he should not be this much of an underdog as it is based on name and name alone. He pitched well in his first two Major League starts with a 3.60 ERA but he was lit up against Oakland in his last outing which they have been doing to a lot of pitchers the last two months and while facing another tough lineup, he should settle down and he does have a solid bullpen behind him. 10* (918) Cincinnati Reds | |||||||
09-01-24 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -109 | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Sunday Double Play. Following their third straight loss, the Diamondbacks are now six games behind the Dodgers in the National League West so this one is a must to even think about having a chance to win the division with this being the final head-to-head matchup between the two teams. Arizona had won seven of its previous eight games and fortunately for them, the Padres are in a similar slide and it still has a one game lead over San Diego in the Wild Card standings. The Diamondbacks are eight games over .500 at home and the bats remain hot but they need the pitching today. Los Angeles has gotten back to good health and has won 10 of its last 12 games as it has started to again pull away in the division after seeing its lead cut to two games. The Dodgers have had the starting pitching edge the first two games of this series but that is not the case tonight which is the reason for the line flip. They got three home runs from Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to open the game last night which was the ultimate difference. Brandon Pfaadt was cruising along with a 3.74 ERA through his first 20 starts but he has struggled of late with a 6.29 ERA in his last six outings but Arizona has still won five of those recent games thanks to the offense which will be on his side once again. He still has a solid 1.17 WHIP thanks to a 5.0% BB% which is No. 7 in baseball among 60 qualified starters and his 3.78 SIERA and 3.53 xERA are more indicative of how he is pitching. Justin Wrobleski counters for the Dodgers as he is making another spot start after being recalled from Triple-A. He did pick up his first win in his last outing before being sent down but he allowed four runs in five innings including three home runs as he has now allowed seven in his five starts. Arizona continues to pound the ball as it leads the National League with a .769 OPS while its .785 home OPS leads all of baseball and have a good matchup against a lefties where the Diamondbacks have a .775 OPS, second best in MLB. 10* (958) Arizona Diamondbacks | |||||||
09-01-24 | A's +118 v. Rangers | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Sunday Double Play. After scoring nine runs in each of their last three games, Oakland was able to only get two across the plate last night but has a favorable matchup today to get the bats going again. The Athletics had won four of five prior to Saturday yet remain undervalued as they come in as the underdog once again. Since July 1, Oakland is 29-21 which is the eighth best record in baseball over that stretch and they can thank the offense as since the start of July, they are No. 3 in wRC+ at 121 and No. 6 in wOBA at .332. Texas was coming off a sweep over the White Sox prior to this series which says nothing as this team is struggling on both sides going further back. The Rangers are nine games under .500 and while they have been better at home, they should not be laying this number as their -15.3 units are second worst in baseball, ahead of only the White Sox. The offense is bad as they have a .298 wOBA which is No. 24 in baseball while their OPS of .681 is also No. 24. Texas will be going with an opener on Sunday as Walter Pennington will get the start despite having just four minor-league starts over the past three seasons. He has pitched more than one inning twice across his seven outings with the Rangers this season, with the last coming a week ago against the Guardians where he went three innings and allowed two runs on four hits and two walks. The bulk part of the relief is expected to go to Chase Anderson who has a 4.85 ERA which is No. 241 out of 288 pitchers that has tossed at least 50 innings while his 7.1% K-BB% is tied for No. 272. Oakland turns to Mitch Spence who has had his ups and downs but has been pitching well of late, allowing two runs or less in five of his last seven starts. One of those exceptions was a game in New York against the Mets where he gave up five runs in just 2.2 innings against a potent offense but in three other starts over this recent stretch, he put up a 2.12 ERA across 17 innings with his home runs allowed having gotten much better. 10* (967) Oakland Athletics | |||||||
08-31-24 | Royals +124 v. Astros | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Saturday Double Play. Kansas City has lost three straight games as it failed to gran the four-game sweep over Cleveland and has since dropped the first two games of this series. The Royals got their way up to the top of the American League Central but have dropped back to 2.5 games behind the Guardians. They were no-hit last night by Framber Valdez through seven innings before he was pulled which nearly backfired on the Astros and that sort of move hit the baseball purists with a backhand. Kansas City is still above .500 on the road and is catching a good price in this matchup. The Astros were on a heater with an 11-1 run to take command in the American League West but they dropped two straight and six of eight games but Houston has rebounded and won three straight games. The Astros remain four games ahead of Seattle in the American League West as the pitching has led the way during this recent run as they have allowed five runs in the three games and along with Valdez, Spencer Arrighetti also had a no-hitter through seven innings against the Phillies. Yusei Kikuchi has been a solid addition to the Houston rotation since he was acquired from Toronto as he has posted a 2.89 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in five starts. He has yet to toss a quality outing in those games however as he has not been able to get through six innings which is not necessarily a problem as he does have a solid bullpen behind him but the price in starting to get overinflated in his starts with the Astros going 5-0 in his five starts. Cole Ragans has been more consistent throughout the season as he has posted a 3.28 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 27 starts. He is No. 5 in baseball with a 29.0% K% while his K-BB% of 20.6% is No. 8 so his command has been spot on. He has pitched better away from home and leads the team with a 3.40 xERA. 10* (915) Kansas City Royals | |||||||
08-31-24 | Red Sox +136 v. Tigers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Saturday Double Play. We are going against the upcoming American League Cy Young winner and not because he is pitching bad but the matchup is a good one with a lot of value on the other side. Boston blew a 4-0 lead as it allowed four runs in the eighth and ninth innings but ended up with the victory in 10 innings. The Red Sox are trying to stay afloat in the American League Wild Card as they trail the Twins by 3.5 games following another rough homestand but they continue to play exceptional on the road as they are now 38-27 and they lead baseball with a .777 OPS on the road. Detroit has dropped two straight games following a six-game winning streak but those six wins were against the White Sox and Angels, the two worst teams in the American League. The Tigers do have the edge on the mound but that is about it and even that is not as big as the line is saying. Detroit is back to .500 at home and now trail Minnesota by six games for that final Wild Card spot and that might be too far back at this point with three teams to pass. Tarik Skubal continues to dazzle as he is 15-4 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 26 starts and while the Tigers have been profitable overall in his games, they are just 3-4 in his no-decisions. Boston hits lefties very well and since the All Star Break, they are No. 5 in wRC+ against lefties at 114 while overall ,they have the third highest OPS and ISO and the best BABIP at .324. Nick Pivetta has been up and down of late but he has faced some powerful offenses while also making a start at Coors Field which did not go very well. Since the All Star Break, he has a 3.89 xFIP which is No. 47 out of 115 pitchers that have tossed at least 30 innings while his 23.6% K-BB% is No. 10 out of those 115 pitchers. He faces an offense that is not very good as the Tigers are No. 23 in OPS at .687 and since the All Star Break, Detroit is No. 25 in wOBA at .297. 10* (911) Boston Red Sox | |||||||
08-30-24 | Blue Jays v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 145 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS RL as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Toronto has been playing well as it has won 12 of its last 18 games to get to four games under .500 but it is too little, too late for what has been a rough season from the start. Seven of the 12 wins have come against the reeling Angels however so the run is a bit skewed and while the offense was pounding it pretty good, the Blue Jays managed only five runs over the final three games. The offense has struggled on the road as its .692 OPS is No. 18 while also sitting middle of the pack against right-handed pitching. Minnesota is in a funk as it was swept by the Braves to open the week and are 2-8 over their last 10 games but are still somehow very much in play in the American League Central as the Twins are just 3.5 games behind Cleveland and two games behind Kansas City while holding a 3.5-game advantage over Boston in the Wild Card standings. The offense continues to smash as since the All Star Break, Minnesota is No. 9 in OPS at .750 and No. 7 in wRC+ at 112. The Twins have been great at home where they are 37-29 and the offense has led the way with a league leading .789 OPS and .341 wOBA. Kevin Gausman was coming off great 2022 and 2023 seasons but he has struggled as his ERA is a full run higher at 4.24 compared to a combined 3.25 in those previous two years. His K% of 29.7% in 2022 and 2023 was tied with Gerrit Cole for the best in baseball among qualified starters but it is down to 22.2% which is No. 35 as his velocity is down and that has caused his xwOBA to go from .346 to .389 on his fastball and the Twins have a 113 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is No. 5 in baseball. Pablo Lopez has had a weird season as he has a 4.26 ERA which has been largely due to four bad starts where he allowed 26 runs so take those out and his ERA drops to 3.06 which come more in line with his 3.52 xERA. His metrics are outstanding as his 3.40 xFIP is No 12 among 65 qualified starters while his 3.45 SIERA in No. 10 as is his K-BB% of 20.6%. The Twins also have a big bullpen advantage as they are in the top 10 in xFIP, Stuff+, and Pitching+, while Toronto is in the bottom 10 top of all of those. 10* (970) Minnesota Twins -1.5 Runs | |||||||
08-30-24 | A's +133 v. Rangers | Top | 9-2 | Win | 133 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Oakland and Texas are separated by four games but this line is saying the gap is much greater than that as we are still seeing early season numbers against an overrated Rangers teams and an underrated Athletics team. Oakland is coming off a tough 10-9 loss yesterday in Cincinnati as it took a 9-7 lead with three ninth inning runs but it allowed three runs in the bottom of the ninth as closer Mason Miller was unavailable after pitching the previous two days which shows how important he has been. After going through a bit of a slump, the Athletics offense is bashing again and have a great matchup here. Since July 1, Oakland is 28-20 which is the sixth best record in baseball over that stretch. Texas is coming off a sweep over the White Sox but you cannot take anything away from that as this team is struggling on both sides going further back. The Rangers are nine games under .500 and while they have been better at home, they should not be laying this number as their -15.3 units are second worst in baseball, ahead of only the White Sox. The offense is bad as they have a .298 wOBA which is No. 25 in baseball while their OPS of .682 is No. 24 and the pitching is equally bad with their ERA of 4.28 being No. 23 with their 4.23 xFIP also checking in at No. 23. JP Sears brings in a 4.36 ERA and a 4.35 xERA so his is pitching right to expectation following a poor outing where he allowed five runs in 3.2 innings against the Brewers. He has allowed five runs or more five times but those were against Milwaukee, Houston, Minnesota, Baltimore and Cleveland all of which are in the top half of baseball in OPS against lefties. Texas is not. His 3.29 ERA since July 1 is No. 25 in baseball among 75 pitching tossing at least 50 innings while his 4.1% BB% is No. 8. Jon Gray returned from the injured list 10 days ago after missing nearly a month with a groin strain, but because he did not make any rehab starts, the Rangers used him out of the bullpen where he tossed two innings and 27 pitches. He then made his first start and allowed seven runs over two innings against Cleveland and he will not be fully stretched out here with a bad Texas bullpen behind him. The Athletics have had one of the top offenses in baseball over the last couple months as since July 1, they are No. 3 in wRC+ at 121 and No. 6 in wOBA at .332. 10* (965) Oakland Athletics | |||||||
08-30-24 | Cardinals +173 v. Yankees | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Yankees dropped two of three in Washington and are back home laying a massive number once again with the value significantly on the other side. New York has a game and a half lead over Baltimore in the American League East and it is back home where it has not been nearly as good as the road success. Despite being seven games over .500, the Yankees are -6.0 units in the money so that 13-unit gap shows exactly how overpriced there are. Can St. Louis make a run? After losing the first two games at home against the blistering hot Padres, the Cardinals won the final two games with some outstanding pitching and this has been the case for a while. They have allowed an average of 3.3 rpg over their last 12 games where they have gone just 7-5 but they are back to .500 and are six games back in the National League Wild Card which may be too far back to make up but the remaining schedule is favorable and despite this number tonight, we actually have an edge on the hill. Marcus Stroman remains overrated as his 3.88 ERA and 1.39 WHIP do not show his declining metrics. He has a 4.71 xFIP which is No. 60 among 67 qualified starters and out of 131 pitchers that have faced at least 350 plate appearances. His 4.88 xERA is No. 106. His velocity is considerably down from the last two seasons which has hurt his K% and his BB% is at 10.0% percent which is worst in baseball while his K% of 17.0% is No. 66 among those 67 qualified starting pitchers and this equates to a 7% K-BB% which is ahead of only Chris Flexen. Erick Fedde had a great run in Chicago with his 3.11 being a career best but he struggled in his first start with St. Louis where he allowed five runs over five innings against the Cubs but he has settled down. He has posted a 3.18 ERA in his four starts since then including an impressive outing at Minnesota against a very good offense as he allowed just one run over six innings. he brings in a 3.89 xERA which certainly is not bad and his xwOBA of .308 is second best among qualified starters in the Cardinals rotation while his .263 BABIP is No. 15 in all of baseball among 67 qualified starters. 10* (975) St. Louis Cardinals | |||||||
08-29-24 | Orioles +145 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Thursday Double Play. After winning the series opener on Tuesday, Baltimore got another average outing from Corbin Burnes who allowed six runs over five innings but was fortunate with being charged with just one earned run despite allowing a pair of home runs. The Orioles are still one game behind the Yankees in the American League East and we like where they are trending again. The Orioles had a stretch in early July scoring four runs over a five-game stretch but since July 14, the offense has been cooking again as they are No. 7 in wRC and top ten in wOBA, ISO and OPS. The Dodgers have been hanging on for dear life in the National League West as they have two of the hottest teams chasing them and their lead in the division remains three games despite playing pretty well. They got away with a win last night behind another short outing from Walker Buehler as the bullpen got a lot of work which was not ideal because that is expected again tonight. This offense can carry them on any given night but again, they cannot be laying this number with this pitcher. Bobby Miller was recalled from Triple-A earlier this month and while coming off a quality start, It was against the Rays. He opened the season in the rotation, but he was sent down after posting an 8.07 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in seven start across 29 innings. It was not any certain start that hurt him and he has been up and down as he made two starts each in April, June and July and posted ERAs of 11.12, 8.64 and 11.00 respectively. After a 5.54 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in three starts at Triple-A, his August ERA is 5.91 in the bigs. Cade Povich was brought back up two weeks ago after a rough time in Baltimore prior to being demoted as between June 6 and July 29, he made eight starts, posting a 6.27 ERA with 25 strikeouts and 23 walks over 37.1 innings. He looked good down in Norfolk in his two starts prior to the callup and he was solid in his first start against Boston as he allowed two runs in 6.2 innings but was hurt by a pair of home runs against the Astros in his last outing. 10* (921) Baltimore Orioles | |||||||
08-29-24 | Braves +140 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Thursday Double Play. The Braves cruised to their third straight win behind another masterful performance from Chris Sale which was his 15th straight quality start, and they carry that momentum into this series that could decide how the rest of the season shakes out. Atlanta got the deficit down to five games in the National League East as it is playing its best baseball after suffering a six-game losing streak in early August. Despite injuries that continue to hinder the offense, Atlanta is No. 5 in OPS at .774 along with ISO, wOBA and wRC+ all in the top 10 but the pitching has really carried the. The staff has a 2.89 xFIP which is best in baseball to go along with a league-high 29.9% K%. The Phillies were nearly no-hit yesterday as they scratched out an infield single in the eighth inning before getting smacked 10-0 against Houston which ended their four-game winning streak. The one thing we did mention yesterday is that they have struggled on the mound only a few times over the last few weeks and most of those were with Taijuan Walker on the hill and they get back into the real heart of the rotation tonight but there is no way they can be asked to lay this price. Cristopher Sanchez snuck out a quality outing in his last outing against the Braves despite allowing nine hits. He has a 3.51 ERA overall but has been trending down since July 1 as he has a 1.42 WHIP which is No. 62 among 73 starters that have tossed at least 50 innings but his metrics are even worse. His K% of 16% is No. 69 and while he has been in control of avoiding a lot of walks, his BAA is fourth worst and this is not an offense he wants to face right now. Charlie Morton is not having his best season but it is far from his worst as he has found a groove of late with a 2.65 ERA over his last three starts and while he is on the backside of his career, he is priced wrong here. He has been an underdog twice, both in New York against the Mets and Yankees at +115 and +118 respectively and now all of a sudden he is up to a +140 dog in some spots. 10* (909) Atlanta Braves | |||||||
08-28-24 | Mets v. Diamondbacks -125 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Mets came away with the 8-3 win last night behind another strong performance from Sean Manea who struck out a season-high 11 and went into the seventh inning for the fifth time in his last six starts. New York has been stuck in neutral since a five-game winning streak at the end of July as it is 14-15 since then while going 4-10 in its last 14 games following a win. They remain three games behind the Braves for the final National League Wild Card spot as it continues to be an uphill battle with no consistency. The Diamondbacks had their six-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night and are now tied with the Padres for the No. 1 Wild Card spot and both are now three games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. Arizona is 10 games over .500 at home where it has a .781 OPS which is best in the National League and the pitching matchup is in its favor as well. While Arizona has hit lefties well this season, it has gone just 22-24 against lefty starters but it is 53-33 against right-handed starters and the Diamondbacks also lead the National League with a .766 OPS against righties. Luis Severino has had a great bounce back season from 2023 and while he is coming off a pair of solid outings, one was against the hapless Marlins and he had a run of 10 starts prior to this which was horrible as he posted a 5.66 ERA in those 10 outings with a lot of that damage on the road where his ERA is a full run and a half higher. Overall, his ERA is at 3.84 which is not horrible but among 62 qualified starters, he is No. 54 in K-BB% at 11.4% while his 4.31 xFIP is No. 51. Eduardo Rodriguez has made just three starts since getting into the Arizona rotation as he is expected to play a big part in the playoff push. The first two were average as he has allowed three runs in each of those while going 5.2 and 5.0 innings but he allowed only one run in 5.1 innings in his most recent outing and he increased his pitch count from 65 to 83 to 100. Additionally, his command has been better in his last two starts as in his first outing, he was in Cleveland so that was a brutal road opener. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks | |||||||
08-28-24 | Marlins v. Rockies -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 150 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES RL as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Colorado lost Game Two of this series 9-8 as it allowed five runs in the top of the ninth inning and after blowing a 6-0 lead after two innings. Welcome to Coors. We love the bounce back spot here as most everything falls their way and while favored again, we are taking the value in the runline as this is the go against Miami spot with a big win paying off for the Rockies which are still a solid 30-34 at home with 18 of those losses against current playoff teams. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 4.1 rpg since July 28 and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .290 wOBA, .665 OPS and a .131 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 48 of 84 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 9-36 while averaging 3.0 rpg with a .229 average and a .644 OPS, both of which are third worst in the league and of those 36 losses, 31 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 3.8 rpg. Kyle Freeland came back into the rotation after missing over two months and he has been solid for the most part. In 11 starts, he has allowed three runs or less in nine of those, the only exception being the six runs given up in San Francisco and five runs allowed against San Diego. Since June 23 when he made his return, he has put up some solid numbers as of the 49 starting pitchers that have tossed at least 60 innings, he is No. 19 in BB% at 5.8% along with a sub-4.00 ERA and xFIP. While Coors can be a disaster to some pitchers, he has been great here this year with a 3.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in seven home starts with Colorado going 5-2 in those games. Max Meyer was limited in Triple-A Jacksonville as he was capped at four innings or less in his first 10 starts and his first six starts since getting recalled have not been good, posting a 7.36 ERA while allowing nine home runs. Overall, he has a 14.1% K% and 7.0% BB% and his 7.1% K-BB% would put him tied for last among all starters should he qualify. 10* (958) Colorado Rockies -1.5 Runs | |||||||
08-28-24 | Blue Jays +136 v. Red Sox | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Toronto has won 11 of its last 16 games after getting its six-game winning streak snapped last night but we expect a bounce back. The Blue Jays are middle of the road on offense but since the trade deadline when they have settled into their current offense, they have been solid with a 115 wRC+ which is No. 6 in baseball while their .327 wOBA, .440 SLG and .761 OPS are also No. 6. Boston at home has not been good as they had lost five straight prior to the win last night and they are now seven games under .500. It comes down to the pitching as Boston has a 4.44 ERA at Fenway Park which is No. 24 in home ERA. The starters have been sufficient but the bullpen has been atrocious no matter where they are pitching as the Rex Sox relievers have allowed 124 runs since the All Star Break, 28 more than any other team, and their 6.40 ERA is by far the worst in baseball as is their 4.82 xFIP while their K% is second worst, ahead of only Washington. Brayan Bello got off to a rough start but was on a solid run since mid-July as he has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts including four at home but the last two came against Texas and Kansas City which are in the bottom half of the league in road OPS. He got crushed in his last start against Arizona which was also at home and he now has a 5.54 ERA at home and his command remains an issue as he has walked three hitters in each of his past four starts and 17 over his past 33.1 innings. He has managed to stay out of trouble with timely ground balls and an 87 Strand Rate which shows there has been luck involved. Chris Bassitt has been all over the place of late but has at least not pitched bad consecutively. In May and June, he made 11 starts and did not allow more than three runs but in his last nine starts, he has allowed four runs or more five times including his last outing where he gave up four runs against the Angels. In the previous four games where he allowed at least that many runs, he following up by allowing three runs or less in all four outings and he has shut down this offense twice this season. 10* (967) Toronto Blue Jays | |||||||
08-27-24 | Giants v. Brewers +101 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Milwaukee took two of three in Oakland over the weekend and heads back home following a 3-3 roadtrip which is not going to hurt the Brewers as they still have a 10-game lead in the National League Central but there is still plenty to play for. The Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies are all within 2.5 games of each other for the best record in the National League and Milwaukee is back home with its 38-24 record which is also third best in the National League but you cannot tell by this price. The Giants remain in the Wild Card hunt in the National League as they are back to .500 following a series loss in Seattle and they have dropped three of their last four. San Francisco has relied on its pitching this month to keep them afloat because the offense has not done much as they are No. 22 in OPS and wOBA while their 94 wRC+ is No. 24. We have steered clear of Tobias Myers for the most part and he continues to be one of the best pitchers in the rotation as he has quietly gone about his business. He did not get off to a great start as he posted a 5.40 ERA through May which included six starts and one relief appearance but the last three months have been sensational as he has posted a 2.00 ERA over his last 13 starts with Milwaukee going 8-5 in those games, one loss in extra innings and the other four where they averaged 2.5 rpg on offense. Since the start of June, that 2.00 ERA is best among 79 starting pitchers that have tossed at least 70 innings while his WHIP checks in at No. 9. Logan Webb remains consistent as he has for the last four seasons in San Francisco and he is coming off his fourth straight start of allowing two runs or less. Only one of those games was on the road which was against a poor Washington offense and his splits are pretty extreme. He shut down the White Sox at home in his last start and in 13 home starts, he has a 2.26 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across 91.2 innings but in 14 road outings, he has gone only 81 innings and put up a 4.11 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. His command has been an issue as he issued 31 walks in 216 last season and already has 41 this season across 172.7 innings. 10* (906) Milwaukee Brewers | |||||||
08-27-24 | Braves v. Twins -104 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Twins lost their third straight series opener and have now dropped six of their last eight games following a 10-6 loss last night as they handed Bailey Ober his worst ever start. The Twins are still hanging tough in the American League Central as they trail the Guardians by 2.5 games while sitting five games ahead of Boston for the final Wild Card spot. The offense continues to smash as since the All Star Break, Minnesota is No. 8 in OPS at .752 and No. 8 in wRC+ at 112. The Twins have been great at home where they are 37-27 and the offense has led the way with a league leading .793 OPS and .342 wOBA. Atlanta busted out for nine runs in the first two innings last night with a storm delay the only thing cooling them down and they are catching it at the right time as they are 7-2 over its last nine games which has put the Braves six games behind the Phillies in the National League East and three games up on the Mets in the Wild Card. They are three games over .500 on the road and come in as a favorite in a few shops in a showdown of two solid young pitchers that are both trending the right way. Spencer Schwellenbach got into the rotation in late May as a fill in because of injuries and it was unsure if he would last after a rocky start as he had a 5.86 ERA through his first six starts. He has completely turned it around as he has a 2.84 ERA over his last eight starts since the start of July which is No. 14 among 75 qualified starters and his command has really reversed for the good but has his toughest matchup during this run. Simeon Woods-Richardson has been a great addition to the rotation as he has a 3.69 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 22 starts and is coming off a pair of solid road starts. He has been better at home with a 3.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP and he has a 3.97 xERA so he is pitching to his expected ability and it could get better as he has found his groove with some of the best velocity numbers in baseball. He has one bad start at the Mets at the end of July and another in Toronto in May and he has allowed three runs or less in 19 of those 22 outings. 10* (928) Minnesota Twins | |||||||
08-27-24 | Cubs -124 v. Pirates | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Cubs busted out for 18 runs on Monday to win for the fourth time in their last five games with the offense putting up their best stretch by far as they have scored at least 10 runs in three of those games, averaging exactly 10 rpg over this stretch and while this will not hold up long-term, they are peaking at the right time. Chicago is back to .500 on the season and is 5.5 games behind the Braves for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. While the bats have the recent attention, the bullpen has been a shut down unit as they are allowing a .212 average since the All Star Break, which is No. 7 in MLB with their 2.55 ERA checking in at No. 2. The Pirates are back to seven games under .500 as a 10-game losing streak earlier this month pretty knocked them out of any sort of playoff consideration. They are two games under .500 at home which is better than the Cubs have been on the road but are in another tough spot here. We were high on Jared Jones early in the season who was solid through 16 starts with a 3.56 ERA and 1.11 WHIP but he has not pitched for the Pirates since July 3, when he exited his start with a lat strain that sent him to the 15-day injured list. He made three starts for Indianapolis down in Triple-A and those went well but with Pittsburgh being out of playoff contention and this being a prized young arm, his pitch count will be limited here and likely for the remainder of the season and that is bad news if there is any sort of lead. The Pirates bullpen has allowed a .249 average since the All Star Break which is No. 24 in baseball while hovering right around No. 20 in K%, BB% and K-BB%. Justin Steele is coming off one of his best starts of the season as he went seven innings, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out a season high 10 and not issuing a walk. He got off to a rocky start this season as he posted a 5.68 ERA through his first five starts but ha only a couple blips in the rotation since then as he has a 2.40 ERA in his last 16 outings with his overall ERA sitting at 3.07. He has been more efficient on the road with a 2.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 10 starts. 10* (901) Chicago Cubs | |||||||
08-26-24 | Tigers v. White Sox +136 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Detroit offense has had some success the last two games in this series but they have a tougher matchup tonight and they really need to worry about their own pitching in this one. Detroit has a tougher matchup tonight than they did against Ky Bush on Saturday and Jonathan Cannon yesterday and they remain No. 24 on the road in OPS at .676 and over the last month, they are No. 22 in wOBA at .296. Chicago jumped ahead early yesterday but was unable to sustain it and they notched loss No. 100 on Sunday. We are backing them partially for that reason as that milestone that has been over their heads can now be lifted and they are in a nice spot to get out of here with a win before hosting Texas. The White Sox have a better situation today and while last night was not a close game, this team has gone through some tough luck as times as they are 9-26 in one-run games. Detroit has called up Ty Madden from Triple A to make his Major League debut. He was a first round draft pick three years ago and it has taken time to develop and while the could not ask for a better matchup in his first ever start, it might not even matter. Madden has made 18 starts at the Triple-A level this season and has a 7.97 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. He gave up at least three runs in each of his outings since July 4 and in seven of his starts overall, he gave up five or more runs. He is a high K pitcher with a 27.6% K% but he walks a lot of hitters with his 10.8% BB% and in Major League ranks, that would be the worst among every qualified pitcher. So while facing the White Sox may seem like a dream first start, if he cannot do it at Triple A, he is facing a better team than that tonight so there is no edge. Davis Martin has had a long journey to where he is now and it is beginning to pay off. He was stuck in the Minors in 2023 behind what was then a solid White Sox rotation but he ended up getting hurt and went through Tommy john surgery and he got the call last month after a long rehab. He has allowed three earned runs and 10 hits over 16 innings in his last three starts after a subpar first start bit that was against the Twins in Minnesota. He has not gotten any run support but that should change here. 10* (964) Chicago White Sox | |||||||
08-25-24 | Giants +132 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. San Francisco overcame a poor outing from Blake Snell who went just three innings as his control was completely off as he did not allow a hit but issued six walks. The Giants were able to come away with the 4-3 win as they outhit Seattle 11-4 to move a game over .500 which puts them five games out in the National League Wild Card so they are still in the mix. While the road has not been good the entire season, they have gone 8-4 over their last 12 road games and are catching a solid number on Sunday. Seattle was atop the American League West for much of the season and actually had a 10-game lead at one point but the bottom fell out in mid-June as they are 20-33 over their last 53 games which cost manager Scott Servais his job and this organization is in such shambles that he found out of his firing from a news alert on his television. The pitching remains solid but the bats are awful and last night was the epitome of that as they had one of the best pitchers in baseball completely off his game and still could not manage a hit. Robbie Ray is going to be an integral part of the playoff push and he is coming off his second quality outing in his last three starts. Overall, in six starts this season, he has posted a 4.88 ERA with all of the damage coming at home but he is pitching to a 3.64 xERA. He is averaging 94.1 mph on his fastball, which is almost a full mph faster than he was throwing in 2022. The Mariners have been terrible against left-handed pitching this season and only have a 90 wRC+, which ranks 25th in baseball while sitting deal last in BABIP at .254. Bryan Woo has been one of the better pitchers in baseball this season when healthy as he has a 2.12 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 15 starts but after starting 6-0 in his first six starts when Seattle was actually playing well, the Mariners are just 4-5 in his last nine outings with the offense scoring a total of 10 runs in those five losses. His numbers show he should be favored but the team numbers show it should not be this high. 10* (929) San Francisco Giants | |||||||
08-25-24 | Tigers v. White Sox +128 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Detroit put up 13 runs last night which was its second game over its last 11 games it has scored double digits in runs while in the nine games in-between, the Tigers scored a total of 28 runs, the exact total of the two games bookended around those. While last night was a breakout, Detroit has a tougher matchup tonight than they did against Ky Bush on Saturday and they remain No. 23 on the road in OPS at .682 and over the last month, they are No. 26 in wOBA at .292. Chicago came in having no chance last night as they faced likely Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal but the bats got to him for eight hits and three runs which is only the third time since June 19 he has allowed a line like that. The White Sox have a better situation today and while last night was not a close game, this team has gone through some tough luck as times as they are 9-26 in one-run games. Jonathan Cannon was a scratch last night and now gets the ball for the White Sox tonight and he has been pitching well, allowing three runs or less in nine of his 13 starts and three of those exceptions were on the road. Overall, he has a 4.02 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with a 4.59 xERA so he is pitching to expectations and faces the worst offense he has seen in a while. The rough outings have been on the road for the most part and after a bad start in San Francisco, he returns home where he has a 3.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 45 innings. Detroit will be going with a bullpen game today which is not the ideal time as it has blasted through relievers over its last four games. Beau Brieske will serve as the opener after doing so on Wednesday where he was solid over two innings which is what he is expecting to go again today before giving way to Bryan Sammons who struggled in his last bulk relief outing, allowing three runs over 4.1 innings against the Cubs while striking out just two hitters. The Chicago offense is the worst in baseball but since the managerial change, the White Sox have improved at the plate and have a great shot at more today. 10* (916) Chicago White Sox | |||||||
08-25-24 | Rangers v. Guardians -119 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Cleveland came through for us last night as it finally came to life on offense and this is a great momentum spot to keep it going in one of their best situations. The Guardians had lost three straight game and six of their last seven with the offense being a no show, scoring only eight runs total in the six losses and in the one win where they scored nine runs, six of those were in the 12th inning. They exploded early with eight runs in the first three innings and they got a game back as they are now two games ahead of Kansas City and Minnesota in the American League Central with a series against the Royals on deck. Texas had won two straight ad four of its last five games prior to Saturday but they fell back to 10 games under .500 to remain one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season. The Rangers have been especially bad on the road where they are 26-39and have the opposite matchup with an offense that has averaged just 2.3 rpg over its last four games. They have the third lowest OPS in the American League on the road at .670 while their wOBA of .295 is No. 23 and their .125 ISO is third worst in baseball, ahead of only the Marlins and White Sox which proves how bad it really is. The Guardians turn to Matthew Boyd who is making his third start with the Guardians after recovering from Tommy John surgery. His recovery was great as he posted a 0.83 ERA in five rehab starts covering 21.2 innings while striking out 27 and his debut was solid as we went 5.1 innings, allowing only one run on three hits and no walks in a very efficient 80-pitch outing. He followed that up with a good start against the Yankees where he allowed three runs, two of those coming on two pitches against Juan Soto and Aaron Judge so those can be forgiven. Cody Bradford gets the ball for Texas and is in a tough spot against an offense that may have finally come back to life. He has been solid with a 3.56 ERA but in nine games, this will be just his third road appearance and now against a team that has the second best home record in baseball based on percentage, trailing only the Dodgers, and one that is No. 9 in OPS against left-handed pitching and the Guardians are 26-10 on the season against left-handed starters. 10* (914) Cleveland Guardians | |||||||
08-24-24 | Rangers v. Guardians -109 | Top | 5-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. Cleveland is in a funk right now as it has lost three straight game and six of its last seven following a 5-3 loss last night. The Guardians are now only one game ahead of Kansas City in the American League Central with the Twins lingering just two games back. The offense has disappeared as they have scored only eight runs total in the six losses and in the one win where they scored nine runs, six of those were in the 12th inning but something will eventually give and we will definitely take a shot at this buy low price where they are still 38-21 at home. Texas is doing nothing other than trying to play spoiler as it has been a disappointing season in trying to back up their World Series Championship. The Rangers are nine games under .500 and they have been especially bad on the road where they are 26-38. They have the fourth lowest OPS in the American League on the road at .671 while their wOBA of .296 is No. 23 and their .125 ISO is third worst in baseball, ahead of only the Marlins and White Sox which proves how bad it really is. Ben Lively has quietly put together a great season with a 3.67 ERA and 1.21 WHIP through 22 starts. His metrics are pretty much in line with his top line numbers and he has a 3.99 xERA so he is pitching to expectations and will be a key part going forward. His splits are pretty equal and the one thing that has hurt him has been the long ball but Texas is not a power team against righties and Lively has a wOBA under .290 with his sweeper and sinker so it is all about location. Jon Gray is having a typical Jon Gray season, pretty consistent yet unspectacular. He returned from the injured list Tuesday after missing nearly a month with a groin strain, but because he did not make any rehab starts, the Rangers used him out of the bullpen Tuesday where he tossed two innings and 27 pitches. He will not be fully stretched out here and brings in a 4.19 ERA on the road with a bad Texas bullpen behind him. 10* (964) Cleveland Guardians | |||||||
08-24-24 | Cubs -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 14-2 | Win | 105 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS RL as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. The Cubs took the opener of this series 6-3 to make it two straight wins and they have won five of their last seven to get back to one game under .500. With 33 games remaining, Chicago is still alive in the National League Wild Card as it is 5.5 games out and having to pass four teams so there is work to be done but the upcoming schedule is in its favor with six games against Pittsburgh and three games against Cincinnati following this series. The Cubs have struggled on the road but they are 13-10 over their last 23 road games. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 3.8 rpg over its last 27 games and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .290 wOBA, .663 OPS and a .130 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 46 of 80 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 9-35 while averaging 3.0 rpg with a .230 average, third worst in the league and a .644 OPS, second to last in baseball and of those 35 losses, 30 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.0 rpg. Shota Imanaga has had a solid rookie season with a 3.11 ERA through 23 starts with only two bad starts missed in against the Brewers and Mets and taking those out, his ERA drops to 2.07 in his other 21 starts to go along with a 0.96 WHIP. He does not walk anyone as his 3.7% BB% in No 3 among 62 qualified starters which has led to a 21.6% K-BB% which is No. 9. His only road loss was that game against the Mets and Chicago has won 17 of his overall starts, 11 by two or more runs. Valente Bellozo has been a pleasant addition to the rotation as he has a 2.45 ERA through his first six starts and this is now just his third home outing where he has a 4.22 ERA in his first two games in Miami. Like other Miami starters, run support has hurt him as the Marlins have averaged only 3.5 rpg. 10* (951) Chicago Cubs -1.5 Runs | |||||||
08-24-24 | Astros v. Orioles +112 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 112 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. Things were looking bleak for the Orioles last night as they trailed 5-2 going into the bottom of the eighth inning but hit a grand slam and then tacked on one more run to come away with the 7-5 win. Baltimore is now 38-29 at home and once the best team in baseball, it remains in second place in the American League East, a game and a half behind the Yankees. The Orioles had a stretch in early July scoring four runs over a five-game stretch but since July 14, the offense has been cooking again as they are No. 4 in wRC and No. 6 in wOBA, ISO and OPS. The Astros were on a heater with an 11-1 run to take command in the American League West but they have dropped three of their last four games to give some life to Seattle which maybe got a spark by firing their manager. The bullpen let them down last night as since July 21, they have struggled with a 4.31 xFIP, no 22 in baseball. Framber Valdez is the main reason the Astros are favored today as he is having a solid season with a 3.20 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 22 starts. He does have negative road splits and what stands out the most is his K-BB% which is a solid 16.9% overall, No. 34 out of 62 qualified starters. This increases to 20.4% at home but on the road it drops all the way to 11.6% which is No. 54 and this is a brutal matchup. Baltimore has crushed left-handed pitching this season as their .772 OPS is No. 4 in baseball and the best in the American League while their 53 home runs lead all of baseball and it is a low strikeout team. Albert Suarez has split time between the bullpen and starting rotation and 14 of his last 15 appearances have been in the starter role and he has been really good, allowing more than three runs only three times. He has been exceptional of late as he has not allowed a run in three consecutive outings and at home, he has a 2.36 ERA and 1.16 WHIP to go along with a 17:3 K:BB Ratio. This is not the best matchup but neither was his last one here against Boston and he flourished. 10* (962) Baltimore Orioles | |||||||
08-23-24 | Tigers v. White Sox +140 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. After a sweep of the Mariners and a series win over the Yankees, Detroit dropped two of three in Chicago against the Cubs to fall three games under .500 and while it has been a solid turnaround season for the Tigers, the Wild Card possibility is gone. They allowed 10 runs yesterday after giving up 14 runs in their previous eight games but their own offense has not done much either. The White Sox are coming off a 2-4 roadtrip and playing them in spots has been the way to go lately as they have won four times over their last 13 games after taking 31 games prior to this to have four victories. Chris Flexon is considered one of the worst pitchers in baseball but a lot of that has to do with splits and timing. He is coming off a poor outing against the Astros as he allowed four runs over four innings which added to his awful road performance. In 12 road games including 10 starts, he has a 6.92 ERA and it has not helped that his last six road outings have come against the Astros, Twins, Rangers, Royals, Guardians and Diamondbacks with Texas only outside the top 14 in runs scored. His ERA at home is over 2.5 runs better as it is 4.37 which is certainly nothing great but most of that damage was done early. He posted a 6.49 ERA through his first six home outings but in eight starts in Chicago since then, he has a 3.09 ERA. Keider Montero is coming off a solid start as he allowed no runs on just two hits and it was against the Yankees no less which is impressive but we see regression. That was his third start where he has allowed one run or less and in the previous two follow up outings, he posted an 8.10 ERA so consistency has not been in his game. He opened his rookie season with a poor relief appearance but was added to the starting rotation simply because of needs and he was great in his first two outings where he allowed two runs over 12.2 innings but it has been a struggle after those. Since July 13, he has a 5.63 ERA which is No 80 out of 98 starters that have tossed at least 30 innings. There are 12 pitchers on the staff that qualify in minimum plate appearances and Montero is dead last with a 4.99 xERA and .450 xSLG. 10* (916) Chicago White Sox | |||||||
08-23-24 | Diamondbacks +118 v. Red Sox | Top | 12-2 | Win | 118 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. After getting swept in Tampa Bay, Arizona took it out on the Marlins in a three-game sweep to take over first place in the National League Wild Card by a half-game over the Padres and the Diamondback remain four games behind the Dodgers in the West. They have won 23 of 31 games since the All Star Break and they are 33-13 over their last 46 games as the offense remains one of the best in baseball as they lead the league in runs scored and are tied with the Dodgers in the National League in wOBA at .330. Since the All Star Break, Arizona leads the league in OPS at .853 and wRC+ at 135 and have a solid matchup again tonight. Boston took two of three against Houston as the Red Sox continue to flourish on the road, coming off a solid 4-3 trip against two of the best teams in the American League. Now they are back home where they are three games under .500 which makes no sense but it comes down to the pitching as Boston has a 4.36 ERA at Fenway Park which is No. 25 in home ERA. The starters have been sufficient but the bullpen has been atrocious no matter where they are pitching as the Rex Sox relievers have allowed 105 runs since the All Star Break and their 6.46 ERA is by far the worst in baseball as is their 5.55 xFIP while their K% is third worst, ahead of only Colorado and Washington. Brayan Bello got off to a rough start but he has been solid since mid-July as he has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts including four at home but the last two came against Texas and Kansas City which are in the bottom half of the league in road OPS. Still, he has a 5.28 ERA at home and his command remains an issue as he has walked three hitters in each of his past three starts and 13 over his past 28 innings. He has managed to stay out of trouble with timely ground balls and an 87 Strand Rate which shows there has been luck involved. Ryne Nelson does not have numbers that will blow you away but he is consistent and has improved considerably from last season. After rough May and June, he has a 2.73 ERA in July and August and that is ranked No. 7 over that stretch among pitchers that have tossed at least 50 innings. 10* (919) Arizona Diamondbacks | |||||||
08-23-24 | Astros v. Orioles +104 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 104 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Orioles were walked off two days ago by the Mets to lose that series, both losses coming by scores of 4-3 and they followed that up with a 6-0 shutout loss last night with both pitchers doing the exact opposite of what was expected. Baltimore is now 37-29 at home and once the best team in baseball, it is in second place in the American League East, a game and a half behind the Yankees. The Orioles had a stretch in early July scoring four runs over a five-game stretch but since July 14, the offense has been cooking again as they are No. 4 in wRC and No. 6 in wOBA, ISO and OPS. Houston has seen its lead go to 5.5 games in the American League West over the reeling Mariners after getting a surprisingly solid effort from Spencer Arrighetti and the Astros have now taken all four meetings with the Orioles this season. The offense has crushed right-handed pitching and they are now 52-39 against righty starters but just 17-19 against lefties. Cade Povich was brought back up last week after a rough time in Baltimore prior to being demoted as between June 6 and July 29, he made eight starts, posting a 6.27 ERA with 25 strikeouts and 23 walks over 37.1 innings. He looked good down in Norfolk in his two starts prior to the callup and he was solid in his first start against Boston as he allowed two runs in 6.2 innings so his second quality outing of the season. The overall numbers are all based on splits as her has made three road starts and posted a 12.27 ERA with a 4:12 K:BB ratio but in six home starts, he has a 3.58 ERA with a 27:11 ratio and he has not allowed more than three runs in any of those starts. Hunter Brown has been solid this season with a 3.82 ERA in 24 starts after posting a 5.09 ERA in 29 starts last season so it has been a solid turnaround. His metrics do project better but that does not take into consideration who he has pitched against as one-third of his starts have seen him face some horrible offenses against the White Sox (2), Mariners (3), Tigers (2) and Rockies (1) where he has posted a 1.14 ERA and in his other games, he has a 5.28 ERA and his road ERA, which is 4.23 in 13 starts goes to 5.86 taking away four starts against those aforementioned teams. 10* (910) Baltimore Orioles | |||||||
08-22-24 | Phillies v. Braves -108 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Phillies came through for us last night with a 3-2 win despite getting outhit 9-5 as their three runs came from two sacrifice flies and an RBI groundout. While it snapped a two-game losing streak, it was a fortunate victory and the offense continues it struggles. Through July 21, the Phillies were ripping the cover off the ball as they were No. 3 on wOBA at .328 and No. 3 in OPA at .755 while tied for No. 2 with a .259 BA. Since then it has been a different offense as they are No. 18 in wOBA and No. 18 in OPS and their BB/K of .33 is No. 22 which is not ideal against the starter tonight. We mentioned the Braves injury issues yesterday and while a concern, it depends on the matchups and they have a good one tonight. They had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night and they are now seven games back in the National League East and this is big game to not fall back further. Going back to the same time frame as mentioned, the Braves offense has been a lot better as they are No. 9 in wOBA at .327, tied for No. 8 om OPS at .756 while their .196 ISO is No. 4. Cristopher Sanchez is having another very good season with a 3.46 ERA through 24 starts but he has been going the wrong way. After his start on June 28, his ERA was a season low 2.41 but he has been inconsistent since then as he has an ERA of 5.55 which is No. 70 out of 75 starting pitchers that have gone at least 40 innings since the start of July. His problem has been contact as he has been inducing too much of it as his K% over this stretch is 14.2% which is No. 74 out of those 75 starters and this is big for Atlanta as they have been a strikeout prone team this season at 24.5% which is seventh highest in baseball. They will not have issues here and facing a lefty makes it even better as the Braves have a .760 OPA against left-handed pitching which is tied for No. 6 in the league. Spencer Schwellenbach got into the rotation in late May as a fill in because of injuries and it was unsure if he would last after a rocky start as he had a 5.86 ERA through his first six starts. He has completely turned it around as he has a 2.86 ERA over his last seven starts since the start of July which is No. 18 among 78 qualified starters and what has really stood out is his command. He has a K% of 31% which is No. 10 and even more impressive is his BB% of 2.9% which is No. 5 and overall, he is No. 3 in baseball in K-BB%, trailing only Blake Snell and Chris Sale. 10* (958) Atlanta Braves | |||||||
08-22-24 | Brewers -118 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Afternoon Dominator. Milwaukee had its six-game winning streak snapped with a 10-6 extra inning loss last night off a walk off grand slam. The Brewers had allowed just 2.3 rpg during the winning streak which had picked up for a poor offense as they had averaged only 3.0 rpg over that stretch but they did manage six runs last night and have an elite matchup tonight. They were surprising underdogs last night despite coming in with a 10-game lead over the Cardinals and today they are the small chalk. The Cardinals have played their way out of the postseason even though last night may have given them a little confidence as they are still five games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League, sitting two games below .500. They have been a much better team at home but have gone only 4-7 in their last 11 home games against teams in current playoff spots. The offense has been middle of the pack in August but they are one of only six teams with an ERA of 5.00 or higher. Miles Mikolas is having his worst season since his 2014 rookie year with Texas when he made 10 starts and posted a 6.44 ERA as through 25 starts this season, he has a 5.51 ERA. He opened the season with an awful outing and he has not been able to get his ERA under 4.76 at any point this season and it has been truly bad of late. Since June 17, he has an ERA of 6.71 over 10 starts and that puts him No. 93 out of 94 starting pitchers that have thrown at least 50 innings. The one thing he has none well is limit walks as his 3.0% BB% is No. 2 but Milwaukee is No. 2 as a team in BB%. The Brewers are No. 4 in the National League in OPS against righties and they are 58-34 against right-handed starters. Freddy Peralta is not having his best season either but it is far from horrible with a 4.00 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 25 starts. He has pitched better away from home as Miller Park has not been great to him despite coming off a solid outing against Cleveland. Over that same time frame since June 17, he has a 3.52 ERA which is over three runs less than Mikolas and that is No. 30 out of those 93 starters while his K% of 25.1% is No. 24. 10* (953) Milwaukee Brewers | |||||||
08-21-24 | Phillies +105 v. Braves | Top | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. It has been a rollercoaster of late for the Phillies as they went on a 1-8 run before winning four of five only to drop four more games in a row but got it right back with four consecutive wins prior to their recent two-game losing streak. Their lead in the National League East is down to six games over the Braves while they still have an 9.5-game cushion in the Wild Card standings so there is nothing to get worried about but they just need to get that consistency back on offense and they have the matchup tonight to do so. The Braves are coming off their third straight win and are 6-2 over their last eight following a horrible 1-7 stretch as the offense continues to struggle. Atlanta cannot avoid the injury bug as they got Michael Harris back last week but now are without Austin Riley who has a fractured wrist after getting hit with a pitch and he joins Ozzie Albies with Ronald Acuna, Jr. already out for the season so they have not had a stable lineup for quite come time. Aaron Nola is coming off a solid outing against Washington which may not be saying much but it did put an end to a three-game non-quality start streak. He has been criticized that he is starting to fade the wrong way in his tenth year with the Phillies but he is in the midst of his fourth best season with Philadelphia as far as ERA goes which is at 3.45 to go along with a 1.14 WHIP while pitching to a 3.88 xERA and he is still considered a top level arm. Out of 62 qualified starters, his 3.62 xFIP in No. 23 while his .279 BABIP is tied for No. 25. Max Fried has been led consistent and since returning from injury, he has not looked the same as he has a 7.90 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in three starts while posting a 20:11 K:BB ratio. His struggles go back further with his command as since June 11, he has a 10.5% BB% which is No. 111 among 122 starters that have gone at least 40 innings. This is not the matchup he needs to get right against as the Phillies are No. 1 in baseball in OPS against left-handed pitching at .796 and prior to their two-game skid, they faced three straight lefties and won them all by scoring 21 runs to put them 29-20 on the season against left-handed starters. 10* (905) Philadelphia Phillies | |||||||
08-21-24 | Reds v. Blue Jays +100 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Toronto has won five of its last eight games following a 10-3 win last night as the Blue Jays blasted five home runs off Carson Spiers and we think they can keep that offense going tonight. It has been a totally lost season for Toronto as it remains nine games under .500 and come into tonight as the underdog in some spots but this looks to be another favorable matchup. The Blue Jays are middle of the road on offense but since the trade deadline when they have settled into their current offense, they have been solid with a 117 wRC+ which is No. 8 in baseball while their .331 wOBA, .439 SLG and .767 OPS are also No. 8. The Reds were making a run to stay alive in the National League Wild Card as they were on a four-game winning streak but went to Kansas City and got swept while scoring a total of three runs in the three-game set. Cincinnato has dropped four of five and are now back to four games under .500 while sitting 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot. While Toronto has been swinging it well, the Reds are not as they are ranked No. 18 or worse in those four aforementioned hitting categories and it bottom out with an 88 wRC+ which is No 25 in baseball. Nick Martinez has put some life into the Reds rotation as he has made three starts since coming out of the bullpen and has posted a 1.50 ERA and 0.82 WHIP as he has not walked a single batter over this stretch. We are far from sold however as he opened the season with five spot starts wrapped around his bullpen work and those were horrible and the issue here is how far can he go coming off an 80-pitch start. The reason for the concern is the Reds bullpen has been logging a ton of innings the last four games without a break and since August 13, they are dead last in baseball with a 6.28 ERA. Yariel Rodriguez has settled into the rotation and he has been great. In 14 starts, he has a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP while allowing three runs or less in 12 of those games. The two exceptions were against the Cubs and Guardians but both of those were on the road and he brings in a 2.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in four home starts so his work has been road heavy and three of those home outings were against elite offenses in Oakland, Houston and Kansas City. 10* (926) Toronto Blue Jays | |||||||
08-21-24 | Guardians +155 v. Yankees | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Guardians broke through with a six-run 12th inning to beat the Yankees 9-5 to get right following getting swept by the Brewers over the weekend. The win increased their lead to 3.5 games in the American League Central over both Minnesota and Kansas City and last night was a huge win and again, this line is completely overinflated. Cleveland is now a half-game ahead of the Yankees for the best record in baseball yet this line is saying the difference is much greater. The offense had been struggling up until that 12th inning but the Guardians have their sweet spot here. The Yankees were coming off a 3-3 roadtrip which was disappointing as they should have blown through the White Sox and Tigers and have now seen their lead in the American League East disappear as they are now a half-game behind Baltimore. New York has been pretty average at home where it is four games over .500 compared to being 41-25 on the road yet come in as massive favorites behind a pitcher that is going the wrong way. The offense has been above average at Yankee Stadium but New York has a 3.96 ERA here which is No. 18 including No. 10 in the American League. Nestor Cotes was all over the place early in the season with some gems but also some poor outings and he looked to have gotten more consistent with five straight starts of allowing three runs or less in mid-June through early-July but he then went backwards with a five games stretch without making it out of the fifth inning in four of those while posting a 9.26 ERA over 23.1 innings. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season as he allowed no runs on three hits with no walks and nine strikeouts but that came against the White Sox, the worst offense in baseball. He faces a Cleveland offense that is tied for No. 9 in OPS against left-handed pitching and the Guardians are 26-9 on the season against left-handed starters. Joey Cantillo made three starts which were not great but they got progressively better and after a short stint at Triple-A following his last outing, he is back in the rotation, taking the place of the injured Alex Cobb. He has a full bullpen behind him following an off day Monday. 10* (911) Cleveland Guardians | |||||||
08-20-24 | Twins -106 v. Padres | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. San Diego took the opener of this series last night following a series loss in Colorado over the weekend but the Padres remain the hottest team in baseball over the last month as they are 20-5 over their last 25 games. San Diego is three games behind the Dodgers in the National League West and remain one game up on the Diamondbacks in the Wild Card standings for first place and the matchup is tougher than last night. Minnesota has dropped two straight games following a three-game winning streak and it is now tied with Kansas City for second place in the American League Central, 2.5 games behind Cleveland. Both the Twins and Royals are safely in the Wild Card standings as they are 4.5 games clear of Boston and Minnesota comes in as the slight favorite but it is for good reason as the home/road numbers are fairly equal and the Twins have the pitching edge. Martin Perez has been hit or miss since June when he starting throwing again but he is moving the right way as he has tossed four straight quality outings, allowing four runs over 24.1 combined innings. The last three starts have been with San Diego since coming over from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline but he has had some juicy matchups in those games as they were against the Rockies, Marlins and Pirates. The one road game was against Miami which has a .679 home OPS, No. 26 in baseball while Colorado and Pittsburgh have road OPSs of .645 and .666 which are No. 28 and No. 26 respectively. Minnesota is No. 14 in road OPS but against lefties, it has dominated with a .755 OPS, second best in the American League. Bailer Ober is part of a strong Minnesota rotation and he has quietly gone about his business for a third straight season as he has a 3.49 ERA which is right in line with his 3.36 xERA. He has tossed 10 straight quality outings going back to June 16 and has a 1.87 ERA which is second best in baseball among qualified starters and his BAA of .165 is also No. 2. He is ranked No. 8 in K-BB% over this stretch and this has been a strength as over the last two full seasons, 58 starters have gone at least 250 innings and he is No. 9 in K-BB% and he is No. 3 in WHIP at 1.03. 10* (975) Minnesota Twins | |||||||
08-20-24 | Orioles +110 v. Mets | Top | 9-5 | Win | 110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Baltimore has dropped three of its last four games including a 4-3 walkoff loss last night to fall a half-game behind New York in the American League East. The Orioles still have a seven-game cushion in the Wild Card standings and this is a game they could use to get the offense back on track after scoring more than five runs over their last eight games. They are still 11 games over .500 on the road where they have a .768 OPS, third best in baseball and it is in a smash spot tonight. New York has won three of its last four games to keep pace with the Braves in the National League Wild Card standings, trailing Atlanta by a game and a half for the final spot. There has been no huge home field edge for the Mets which are now two games over .500 at Citi Field and the pitching has been the spotlight of late, allowing just runs over these last four games and while they shut down a potent offense last night, the first three games came against the Marlins which have one of the worst offenses in baseball. We are rolling with Dean Kreamer again who is coming off a quality outing against Washington following a pair of poor starts. The matchup is more difficult here but two encouraging signs are that his pitch counts have been over 92 in his last four starts and since coming back into the rotation in early July, he has made eight starts while giving up only five home runs after allowing 10 home runs through his first nine starts before hitting the shelf in late May. He has a .249 BABIP which is No. 11 out of 105 starters that have tossed at least 90 innings. The Mets are just No. 15 in home OPS. Jose Quintana continues to pitch above expectations. He has a 4.26 ERA but a 4.96 xERA and he has been fortunate with career best numbers in BABIP and Strand Rate which are both above league averages. He has a 5.00 FIP and 4.64 xFIP which are both No. 56 among 61 qualified starters. Baltimore remains one of the best offenses in baseball as it is No. 2 in OPS at .769, trailing only the Yankees, while also sitting No. 2 in wOBA at .331 and wRC+ at 117. They lead the American League by a wide margin and are No. 4 overall in OPS against left-handed pitching at .772. 10* (969) Baltimore Orioles | |||||||
08-20-24 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS RL as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. After getting swept in Tampa Bay, Arizona bounced back with a 9-6 win last night to temporarily stop the bleeding. They have won 21 of 29 games since the All Star Break and they are 31-13 over their last 44 games and remain one game behind the Padres in the National League Wild Card standings. They are just four games behind the Dodgers in the National League West as the offense remains one of the best in baseball as they lead the league in runs scored and are tied with the Dodgers in the National League in wOBA at .330. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 3.8 rpg over its last 24 games and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .288 wOBA, .658 OPS and a .128 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 44 of 77 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 9-33 while averaging 3.0 rpg with a .226 average, third worst in the league and a .630 OPS, second to last in baseball and of those 33 losses, 28 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.1 rpg. Eduardo Rodriguez has made just two starts since getting into the Arizona rotation as he is expected to play a big part in the playoff push. Both have been average as he has allowed three runs in each of those while going 5.2 and 5.0 innings but he increased his pitch count from 65 to 83 and he has his best matchup so far. Additionally, his command was much better in his second start as in his first outing, he was in Cleveland so that was a brutal road opener. Edwardo Cabrera was on a solid run as he went five straight starts of allowing three runs or less before the Phillies got to him last time out as he gave up six runs on six hits over four innings. He was coming off a pair of encouraging shutout performances but he has now made it through five innings only six times in 14 starts and he faces another potent offense. Overall, he has a 5.76 ERA and his xERA is now 4.93 and trending downward and the matchups have made a huge difference in his results. 10* (951) Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Runs | |||||||
08-19-24 | Rays v. A's +117 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 117 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our American League Game of the Year. We have been high on Oakland over the second half of the season as it has been under the radar but its 53 wins are already three more than all of last season with 38 games still remaining. The Athletics are coming off a weekend split against the Giants and they are again in an undervalued spot being a non-public play. Since July 1, the Athletics are 23-15 which is the fourth best record in baseball, sitting behind only Arizona, San Diego and Houston. Overall, they have been much better at home than on the road as they are just one game under .500 in Oakland. Tampa Bay is coming off a sweep over Arizona following a rollercoaster 7-6 win in extra innings on Sunday after blowing a 6-0 lead. The Rays have moved a game over .500 but remain 6.5 games behind the Royals for the final American League Wild Card spot. The offense came to life against the Diamondbacks pitching with 18 runs scored but they have struggled over the last three weeks as they are No. 29 in both wOBA at .283 and OPS at .649 and No. 26 in wRC+ at 87 since July 31. Taj Bradley was supposed to start on Sunday but was scratched the night before to get an extra day of rest as he is struggling. He went nine starts between June 8 and July 25 allowing two runs or less each time out, posting a 0.82 ERA but the wheels have come off. He has put up a 9.64 ERA over his last three outings and while his overall numbers remain strong, he has been below average on the road all season with a 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in seven starts. The Athletics have had one of the top offenses in baseball over the last six weeks as since July 1, they are No. 4 in wRC+ at 122 and No. 5 in wOBA at .337. Joe Boyle was a late callup last season and he put up a 1.69 ERA in three starts and he ended up making the opening day roster. He did make four solid starts but he has three blowups and was eventually demoted to work on his stuff. He was recalled earlier this month and has made one start and while it was not a good one, it was on the road against the Mets and has a much better matchup. He has the better bullpen behind him tonight as well with Oakland and Tampa Bay dead even with a 3.76 xFIP with active arms and the difference here is that Tampa Bay used 16 relievers against Arizona including seven on Sunday. 10* (908) Oakland Athletics | |||||||
08-18-24 | Dodgers -107 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. St. Louis came away with the big win last night behind a solid effort from Andre Pallante who went seven innings which gave the overused bullpen a break and that snapped a five-game losing streak. It was more of a play against Bobby Miller than anything. The Cardinals are back to a game under .500 and remain 10 games behind the Brewers in the National League Central and as mentioned, they are still very much alive in the Wild Card race, sitting four games back but has a tough matchup today facing a lefty. The Dodgers are 1-3 over their last four games with the offense scoring just 10 runs in the three losses but this is the spot to get the bats going. Los Angeles had its lead in the National League West fall to two games over the Padres so they are far from comfortable. Despite going through a lot of roster moves because of injuries, the Dodgers are still no. 3 in wOBA, wRC+ and ISO. While he has not been overpowering and totally dominant, the return of Clayton Kershaw has been reassuring to the Dodgers as he has looked good while not being pushed. He has gotten better in each of his four starts, namely the last two where he allowed a pair of runs in each while going 10.1 innings with an 11:2 K:BB ratio. Overall, he has a 3.01 FIP and 3.50 ERA and has a K% of 21% while posting a 6.2% BB%. St. Louis is No. 26 in baseball in OPS against left-handed pitching at .656. Sonny Gray got off to a great start in his first season with the Cardinals as he posted a 2.81 ERA through his first 13 starts but it has been downhill since then. He has a 5.89 ERA over nine starts since June 29 and while there has been some bad luck along the way with his 59.2% LOB% which is No. 79 out of 83 starters that have gone at least 40 innings, he is has a .352 BABIP which is No. 76 and his 1.90 HR/9 is No. 77 and now goes up against the team with the most home runs in the National League and is back to near full health. 10* (955) Los Angeles Dodgers | |||||||
08-18-24 | Guardians +114 v. Brewers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Cleveland has dropped the first two games of this series following a five-game winning streak and with Minnesota having won three in a row, the Guardians lead in the American League Central is down to just two games. The offense has quieted down considerably as they have scored three runs or less in eight of their last 11 games and while we prefer to play Cleveland against left-handed starters, they are facing a bottom of the rotation starter today. Milwaukee remains 10 games up on the Cardinals in the National League Central as it has now won four straight games and another division crown is inevitable. The Brewers own offense has also seen a dip in production of late and has a tougher than expected matchup here. Their bullpen is second best to Cleveland but two of their best arms will be unavailable today so the Guardians could have the latter innings advantage but that might not even come into play. We played on Colin Rea in his last start against the Dodgers which just proved his overall top line numbers are a façade. Despite allowing seven runs, he is still putting together the best season of his career as he has a 3.72 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through 23 games but he has a 5.05 xERA and that negative regression looks to be settling in. His 4.36 SIERA is No. 51 out of 63 qualified starters which has given him terrible Stuff+ as he relies on soft contact and with a 19.2% K%, which is No. 53, this is not the offense to face that is in a drought. Ben Lively has quietly put together a great season with a 3.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP through 21 starts. His metrics are pretty much in line with his top line numbers and he has a 4.01 xERA so he is pitching to expectations and will be a key part going forward. His splits are pretty equal and the one thing that has hurt him has been the long ball but Milwaukee is not a power team against righties and Lively has a wOBA under .290 with his sweeper and sinker so it is all about location. 10* (973) Cleveland Guardians | |||||||
08-18-24 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Arizona was our only letdown yesterday and we will back them again today as the Diamondbacks look to avoid the sweep. They have won 20 of 27 games since the All Star Break and they are 30-12 over their last 42 games but have fallen one game behind the Padres in the National League Wild Card standings. They are just three games behind the Dodgers in the National League West as the offense remains one of the best in baseball as they lead the league in runs scored and are tied with the Dodgers in the National League in wOBA at .330. The Rays snapped a three-game slide with the win on Friday and are just 6-9 over their last 15 games as they are right at .500. They are fading in the American League Wild Card and are still 6.5 games behind Kansas City for the final spot and have gone 1-6 in their last seven games following consecutive victories. Even though the offense has scored 11 runs in the first two games of this series, the offense has been the issue, as they are dead last in wOBA at .279 and wRC+ at 84 since July 31. Taj Bradley was supposed to get the start but he was pushed back after three straight poor outings. Drew Rasmussen will serve as the opening pitcher which will be his second start of the season, though he is expected to pitch just one or two innings before handing the ball off to Tyler Alexander in this bullpen game. He has been better since rejoining the roster but we cannot be sold against this offense as of 142 pitchers to toss at least 70 innings, he is No. 139 in HR/9 at 1.90. Merrill Kelly is coming off his first start since April and it was effective as he allowed two runs on three hits over five innings and that was against a strong Phillies lineup. It was encouraging that he threw 85 pitches and even he said he was nervous in his return with the two runs coming in the first inning before he settled down and stated that it felt like riding a bike from the third inning on. 10* (971) Arizona Diamondbacks | |||||||
08-17-24 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +160 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 160 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. The Dodgers fell behind 5-2 but rallied and were able to hold on for a 7-6 win on Friday. Their win coupled with Arizona and San Diego losses moved them three games up on that duo in the National League West and come into tonight as big favorites again. Los Angeles is just four games over .500 on the road. St. Louis has now lost five straight games as this loss came after getting swept in Cincinnati which pulled the Reds even with the Cardinals, both well back of Milwaukee in the National League Central, the gap now sitting at 10 games. But they are still very much alive in the Wild Card as they are four games back with 40 games remaining. St. Louis is still four games over .500 at home so the Dodgers do not have the edge in home/road splits. The Dodgers just cannot seem to catch a break in their rotation as Tyler Glasnow has once again hit the IL and Bobby Miller was recalled from Triple-A to make the replacement start. He opened the season in the rotation, but he was sent down after posting an 8.07 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in seven start across 29 innings. It was not any certain start that hurt him and he has been up and down as he made two starts each in April, June and July and posted ERAs of 11.12, 8.64 and 11.00 respectively. He has not been pitching well down there either as over his last three starts in Triple-A, Miller has posted a 5.54 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. The bullpen behind him has been busy and they have struggled with a 4.22 xFIP the last 10 days and will be without Michael Kopech and Anthony Banda. Andre Pallante gets the ball for St. Louis and he has been up and down, allowing three runs or less in eight of his 12 starts and overall, he has a 4.21 ERA. He has been above average across league level as his 4.00 xFIP is ranked No. 56 among 140 pitchers that has thrown at least 70 innings and while the faces a brutal lineup, the value is there still based on the opposing pitcher. The Cardinals have lost his last five starts with a lot of that due to the offense averaging 2.2 rpg in those starts but that chances here. 10* (906) St. Louis Cardinals | |||||||
08-17-24 | Marlins v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 115 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS RL as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. The Mets came through with the runline win last night as the offense continues to rebuild momentum following a rough short-term stretch. They have scored 26 runs over their last four games after scoring one run total in their three-game set at Seattle and with the win last night coupled with the Atlanta loss, they are now just one game behind the Braves in the National League Wild Card. They are again over .500 at home and they are in another smash spot tonight at a better price on the runline. Miami has dropped two straight games and is 6-11 over its last 17 games and while the putrid offense has shown some flashes, the pitching has hit the skids as well. The Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .289 wOBA, .659 OPS and tied for last with a .129 ISO and going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 42 of 74 games. Over this 17-game stretch, the Marlins have a 5.52 ERA which is No. 26 in baseball while their .323 BABIP is No. 27. Luis Severino was coming off a pair of poor outings but one of those was against Minnesota which is No. 6 in wOBA while the other was in Colorado at Coors Field. He followed that up with another below average outing against the Mariners but has the great matchup to get right. He still has a 3.98 xERA and his strikeouts are tending back up, going from 15.3% in June to 18.5% in July to 28.3% so far this month. The Marlins have a 27.8% K% over the last two weeks and are not good against ground ball pitchers as they are No. 28 in OPS against favorable ground ball pitchers. After three very good starts in April, Max Meyer was demoted to the Minors so the Marlins would gain an extra year of club control and had to wait until late July to recall him. He was limited in Triple-A Jacksonville as he was capped at four innings or less in his first 10 starts and his first four starts since getting recalled have not been good, allowing 17 runs in 19.1 innings including giving up five home runs. He is pitching to a 4.69 xERA which is also right in line with his Minor League metrics. 10* (902) New York Mets -1.5 Runs | |||||||
08-17-24 | Diamondbacks -108 v. Rays | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. Tampa Bay rallied twice on Friday and cooled off the red hot Diamondbacks, at least for the time being. The Rays snapped a three-game slide with the win and are just 5-9 over their last 14 games to fall two games under .500. They are fading in the American League Wild Card and are still 6.5 games behind Kansas City for the final spot. Over this recent stretch, the offense has been the issue as since July 31, they are dead last in wOBA at .266 and wRC+ at 75. Arizona had its six-game winning streak snapped and we do not think it will be down for long. The Diamondbacks have won 20 of 26 games since the All Star Break and they are 30-11 over their last 41 games to remain tied with the Padres atop the National League Wild Card standings. They are just three games behind the Dodgers in the National League West as the offense remains one of the best in baseball. Looking at the same timeframe as Tampa Bay, they are No. 1 in both wOBA and wRC+. Jeffrey Springs is slowly coming back from Tommy John surgery as he has made three starts and the Rays are not going to push him as he is the future of this staff. He is coming off his best start of the three, allowing just one earned run on six hits while striking out eight over five innings in their 2-1 win over the Orioles. It was definitely a positive move but his season-long metrics still indicate underlying issues, including a high FIP and low strikeout-to-walk ratio. His average fastball velocity was 90.3 mph, in line with his first two outings but down from 91.7 mph last year and 91.4 in 2022. Zac Gallen has quietly gone about his business with a 3.69 ERA and pitching to a 4.07 xERA. He allowed one hit against the Mets to the first batter he faced and was forced to leave the game after only six pitches back on May 30 and was lost for a month but he has been effective since then, allowing three runs or less in six of his nine starts. He does not qualify in any rankings because he does not meet the minimum but of the 99 pitchers that have tossed at least 100 pitches, he has a 3.63 xFIP which is No. 28. 10* (921) Arizona Diamondbacks | |||||||
08-16-24 | Padres v. Rockies +155 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 155 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play Sweeper. Colorado is coming off an off day on Thursday after it was swept in Arizona which was its fifth straight road loss to fall to 17-46 on the highway, second worst only to the White Sox. The Rockies are back home where they are a respectable 27-32 and have shown a solid profit based on numbers like this one. They are tied for No. 6 in baseball in home OPS at .771 while their .270 batting average is tied for No. 2 behind Arizona where they just got a first hand view. The Padres are the hottest team in baseball as they have won 19 of their last 22 games and going back further, they are 32-13 since June 19 which is the best record in baseball over that stretch. They are No. 6 in wOBA at .337 and No. 6 in SLG at .451 so the offense has been above average and that can really take off even more at Coors Field but it is the other side they should be concerned about as this is where a pitcher can come to die. Matt Waldron is having a decent season with a 4.00 ERA but he has been leaking oil of late. Overall, he has a 4.31 xFIP which is No. 50 among 64 qualified starters and that goes up to 4.53 since July 1, No. 63 of 77 qualifiers over that stretch. Over a nine-game stretch from May 11-June 24, he posted a 1.95 ERA as he did not allow more than two runs in any of those games but he has been struggling since then with a 5.19 ERA over his last eight outings while allowing fewer than three runs only twice. During the stretch that goes back to June 19 where the Padres have lost only 13 games, four have been with Waldron on the hill. Cal Quantrill has not been any better over the long haul and during that recent stretch since July but the difference is he is used to pitching at Coors Field and has been better here than on the road. We are getting two very similar pitchers with Quantrill getting a big number at home based on the recent Padres run but as mentioned , he has one of the best home offenses behind him so there is incredible value with the Rockies in this spot. 10* (958) Colorado Rockies | |||||||
08-16-24 | White Sox +194 v. Astros | Top | 5-4 | Win | 194 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play Sweeper. Playing the White Sox is a stressful endeavor being the worst team in baseball and being one of the worst teams in recent memory. It took way too long to fire their manager and they have shown some life since then with a close series against the Cubs with both games that could have gone the other way and also had a blowout win over the Yankees. Typically, this would not be a spot to play them in but they have a massive pitching advantage, yet the line is saying different but this is a forced number that the books have to lay. Houston has won eight straight games, all on the road, and has taken a three-game lead over the Mariners which were just swept in Detroit. The Astros got off to a horrible start this season where they went 7-19 in their first 26 games but they have the best record in baseball since then, going 58-36 and now they are back home with many expecting to end this series on an 11-game winning streak but this is the one spot to play against them this weekend. Garrett Crochet had a few bad starts in April but he has been one of the very few bright spots as he has allowed three runs or less in 17 of his last 18 starts including two runs or less in 15 of those and we are catching him off his worst outing of the season. He is back home where he has been great with a 3.39 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with nine of the 13 starts coming against teams in current playoff positions so those games have been against some solid competition. Of 99 pitchers that have thrown at least 100 innings, he is No. 4 with a 2.65 xFIP and also No. 4 with a 2.75 SIERA. Additionally, he is No. 1 in K% and No. 3 in K-BB%. Spencer Arrighetti is coming off a pair of very impressive games where he struck out 25 batters in 13 overall innings but the Astros spit those games, winning the most recent one against Boston which actually snapped a six-game Houston losing streak in his starts. Overall, he has a 5.14 ERA and 1.45 WHIP so the recent starts can be considered an anomaly. 10* (965) Chicago White Sox | |||||||
08-16-24 | Marlins v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS RL as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play Sweeper. The Mets are coming off a tough loss on Thursday as they blew a 5-0 lead and fell 7-6 to the Athletics. They remain two games behind the Braves in the National League Wild Card as they have lost five of their last six games and while the offense came back to life against Oakland by scoring 19 runs in the three-game set, it was not enough to win the series and they are back to .500 at home but they are in smash spot tonight. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 3.9 rpg over its last 20 games and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .288 wOBA, .660 OPS and a .128 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 41 of 73 games and this includes getting shut out eight times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 9-32 while averaging 3.0 rpg with a .227 average, third worst in the league and a .629 OPS, second to last in baseball and of those 32 losses, 27 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.2 rpg. Sean Manaea comes in as a big favorite but the value is on the runline here as he comes in on a good lengthy run. He allowed six runs against the Phillies in early June but since then, he has posted a 2.60 ERA over his last 11 starts which includes a 1.50 ERA in four home starts including three against much better offenses in the Padres, Yankees and Twins. Roddery Munoz gets the ball and in 14 starts, he has a 5.67 ERA and while in six of those he has allowed two runs or less, in the other eight outings, he has allowed 38 runs. Among 127 starting pitchers that have tossed at least 70 innings, only seven have a xFIP greater than 5.00 and Munoz is one of those as he is ranked No. 123 at 5.13. He has split time between Miami and Jacksonville in Triple-A and his numbers are very similar and one that really sticks out is his K-BB% where he posted a 7% ratio in the Minors and while with the Marlins, it is 9.3% which is No. 110 among those 127 pitchers. 10* (954) New York Mets -1.5 Runs | |||||||
08-15-24 | A's +163 v. Mets | Top | 7-6 | Win | 163 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our MLB Afternoon Dominator. The Athletics came up small last night but we are backing them again in another undervalued spot. Oakland had won three straight games before the loss on Wednesday and have remained a sneaky non-public play as since July 1, the Athletics are 21-14 which is the fourth best record in baseball, sitting behind only Arizona, San Diego and Houston. Overall, they have been much better at home than on the road but have gone 10-7 during this six-week stretch on the highway. The Mets snapped a four-game losing streak with the victory and remains in the No. 3 spot in the National League Wild Card standings as they trail the Braves by two games. They got back over .500 at home so there has not been a big edge here and despite the bats coming alive last night, they are No. 24 in wOBA while sitting No. 27 in SLG since July 30. Jose Quintana continues to pitch above expectations. He has a 4.10 ERA but a 4.91 xERA and he has been fortunate with career best numbers in BABIP and Strand Rate which are both well above league averages. He has a 4.87 FIP and 4.50 xFIP which are No. 59 and No. 58 respectively among 65 qualified starters. Oakland is No. 11 in baseball, including No. 5 in the American League, with a .741 OPS against left-handed pitching and despite the poor overall record, it is 14-12 against left-handed starters compared to being 21 games under .500 against righties. The Athletics have had one of the top offenses in baseball over the last six weeks as since July 1, they are No. 4 in wRC+ at 123 and No. 5 in wOBA at .339. Mitch Spence has been pitching great over the month with a 2.78 ERA over his last four starts. Overall, his ERA is worse than that of Quintana but he has a 3.76 xERA so the positive regression is justified and ranks higher in every metric including FIP, xFIP, K-BB% and Stuff+. 10* (913) Oakland Athletics | |||||||
08-14-24 | Braves v. Giants -106 | Top | 13-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Atlanta won its second straight game in this series in 10 innings to take a two-game lead over the Mets for the final spot in the National League Wild Card. The Braves are now 9-4 in extra-inning games this season so they have been on the fortunate side and they are now 3-2 on this roadtrip following a series loss in Colorado as they have gotten back to one game over .500 on the road. The pitching has allowed just four runs in these first two games and we see that changing tonight. The Giants fell 3.5 games behind Atlanta in the Wild Card standings and this is a big opportunity with two elite starters on deck to close this series so they have a chance to even the set. San Francisco is 35-26 at home despite three straight losses here and the home/road splits at the plate are nearly identical in this matchup as the Braves have shown nothing at the plate either. Robbie Ray has made four starts since being activated and he has been solid in three of those and his arm will be needed for a playoff push. His one bad start came against Oakland, which since July 1 is No. 3 in wRC+ at 125 and No. 4 in wOBA at .342, as he allowed four runs on seven hits with a 4:3 K:BB ratio. In his other three starts combined, he has allowed five runs on eight hits with a 24:6 K:BB ratio. Atlanta may be considered elite but it remains banged up and the Braves are 22-13 against left-handed starters but they are ranked No. 14, including No. 8 in the National League in OPS at .747. Grant Holmes has made three starts since entering the rotation and he has gotten progressively worse, going from 1 to 3 to 5 runs allowed and while his strikeouts have progressed at that same rate, his walks are up each game. Mostly a reliever throughout his 10-year Minor League career, he made three starts this year in Triple-A and allowed eight earned runs across 14.2 innings. The Giants are 45-38 against right-handed starters and while the bats have struggled during this recent skid, this is the opportunity to break out. 10* (962) San Francisco Giants | |||||||
08-14-24 | A's +165 v. Mets | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Oakland has won three straight games and while it has been an overall bad season, it has been playing great over the last six weeks. Since July 1, the Athletics are 21-13 which is the third best record in baseball, sitting behind only Arizona and San Diego, meaning they have the best record in the American League over this stretch. Overall, they have been much better at home than on the road but have gone 10-6 during this six-week stretch and they remain undervalued. The Mets have now lost four straight games after scoring only one runs in their previous series in Seattle and their bullpen, which made a major rebound midseason, has been taxed of late. New York is now right at .500 at home and it was sitting in the No. 3 spot in the National League Wild Card standings but now trails the Braves by two games. Since putting up 15 runs against the Twins on July 28, the Mets are No. 27 in wOBA while sitting dead last in SLG. David Peterson has a 3.34 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the season in 12 starts and his metrics do not line up well here. He does not make any qualified rankings based on limited innings but among all 159 starters tossing at least 60 innings, he is No. 134 in SIERA at 4.69. He is not a high strikeout pitcher and has a high walk rate which has put his K-BB% at 7.8% which is No. 146 out of those 159 starters. Oakland is No. 11 in baseball, including No. 5 in the American League, with a .749 OPS against left-handed pitching and despite the poor overall record, it is 14-11 against left-handed starters compared to being 21 games under .500 against righties. The Athletics have had one of the top offenses in baseball over the last six weeks as since July 1, they are No. 3 in wRC+ at 125 and No. 4 in wOBA at .342. Joey Estes has been exceptional at home but he has bad road numbers which are attributed to three bad starts against Houston, Minnesota and Boston, three top offenses, and take those out and his ERA is 3.04 in his six other road starts and he catches the Mets at the right time. 10* (979) Oakland Athletics | |||||||
08-14-24 | Cardinals -105 v. Reds | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. St. Louis has lost three straight games to fall back to .500 on the season and it is now 3.5 games behind Atlanta for the last spot in the National League Wild Card. The offense has gone away as the Cardinals have scored five runs during this skid including plating only one run in each of the first two games of this series. They have been shut down by two of the top starters on the Reds staff but they get a break tonight to end this poor offensive stretch. The Reds have won three straight games to move to two games under .500 and they are also in the Wild Card mix, sitting 4.5 games behind the Braves so they have the momentum but now are at the back end of the rotation and they will not even be going that route tonight. Cincinnati remains one game under .500 at home and it is No. 9 in the National League in OPS at home while its .226 batting average here in No. 27 in all of baseball. The Reds have decided to go with a bullpen game tonight which is a smart move based on the fact their relief pitchers have gone only two innings in each of their last two games and they will start off with Emilio Pagan. He has only made one appearance that lasted longer than one inning this year, so that will likely be his cutoff before handing the game over Carson Spiers, who is expected to pitch in bulk relief and has a 5.40 ERA over his last eight appearances. While the top line numbers for the Reds bullpen are solid, they are middle of the pack as they are No. 15 in xFIP and No. 14 in SIERA. Kyle Gibson is having a solid season with a 3.99 ERA and while he is pitching to a 4.85 xERA, that is not worrisome in this matchup. He has had only two particularly bad starts where he allowed more than four runs and both of those were at home where most of his below average outings have taken place. Get him out of St. Louis and he has been a different pitcher as he has posted a 4.73 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 11 home start while in 11 road outings, he has a 3.34 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. 10* (957) St. Louis Cardinals | |||||||
08-13-24 | Pirates v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 105 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES RL as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Pirates were right in the mix in the National League Wild Card race but that is pretty much dead now as they have lost eight straight games with an inconsistent offense and downright bad pitching. Last night they could get nothing against Joe Musgrove who was making his first start since May 26, or the bullpen which allowed just one run, and on the season, Pittsburgh has a .660 OPS against right-handed pitching which is second worse in baseball ahead of only the dreadful White Sox. The Padres remain one of the hottest teams in baseball as it is 17-3 over their last 20 games and they remain in a tie for second place in the National League West, trailing the Dodgers by 3.5 games. Since this run started, they are No. 1 in Batting Average, No. 4 in SLG and No. 4 in wOBA. San Diego is 46-35 against right-handed starters and its .758 OPS against righty pitching is tied with the Dodgers for best in the National League. Michael King has been dominant with a 2.27 ERA in his last six outings to lower his ERA to 3.34 and he is pitching to a 3.43 xERA so he is throwing to expectations. His xFIP of 3.48 is No. 17 out of 64 qualified starters and shows he has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the game even though he did not have his best stuff in his last game which happened to come on the road against the Pirates. He still struck out seven and his 28.1% K% is No. 9 in baseball while his 19.6% K-BB% is No. 18. Luis Ortiz made a spot start in late June where he allowed one run over seven innings against the Reds and was then put into the rotation full time and it was a great early stretch as he allowed just one run in three outings over 18.2 innings but the real Ortiz from last season is reemerging as he has struggled over his last three starts with a 7.16 ERA. He allowed six home runs while posting a 9:7 K:BB ratio and these are more like his 2023 numbers as he allowed 13 home runs in just 86.7 innings while putting up a 59:48 K:BB ratio. 10* (910) San Diego Padres -1.5 Runs | |||||||
08-13-24 | Dodgers v. Brewers +117 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Milwaukee could not get to Clayton Kershaw last night as it lost 5-2 in the series opener, making it two straight losses but the Brewers still maintain a sizable 7.5-game lead over the Cardinals in the National League Central. They have struggles against lefties this season as they are now 15-19 against southpaw starters while hitting just .251, No. 16 in baseball and their .719 OPS is No. 15. Milwaukee has done its damage against right-handed pitching as it is 52-32 against righty starters while its .746 OPS is No. 8. Los Angeles needed to start trending in the right direction as it saw its lead in the National League West dwindle to 1.5 games but it came through with a sweep over the weekend against the Pirates and it has now won four straight games. The Dodgers lead is back up to 3.5 games but they have a tough matchup as they have been the opposite of Milwaukee as they have absolutely dominated left-handed pitching but they have gone just 43-36 against righty starters. The return of Mookie Betts was felt last night but we feel he gets slowed down here. Colin Rea is putting together the best season of his career as he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 26 games. He is coming off his best start of the season as he shut out the Braves over seven innings while striking out a season-high nine. He has allowed two runs or less in 11 of his last 13 outings and on the season, the Brewers are 16-6 in his games. He has a better than expected matchup. Gavin Stone got off to a great start this season as he posted a 2.73 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through his first 15 starts following a shutout of the White Sox but he labored in July with a 6.27 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in four starts. His first two starts in August have not gone well eight as he has allowed eight runs over 8.2 innings and he has allowed eight home runs in his last six starts after allowing just six through his first 15 outings and the Dodgers have gone 1-5 in his six games since the start of July. 10* (906) Milwaukee Brewers | |||||||
08-13-24 | Cubs v. Guardians -125 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Cleveland was in a great spot last night facing Shota Imanaga. Even though he has been great this season but the Guardians pounded out seven hits as they have dominated lefties this season and while it is a righty matchup tonight, the line is once again in their favor. Cleveland has won three straight games to remain 3.5 games ahead of the Twins in the American League Central. They are back home just for this series where they are now 36-20 before going to Milwaukee so they need to continue to succeed here. The Cubs had won four straight games to get back to a game under .500 following a pair of wins over Minnesota and a sweep of the White Sox before the loss last night. They are right in the Wild Card mix in the National League as they are now four games out of the final spot but do have four teams in from of them they will have to overtake. Sweeping the White Sox on the road was certainly nothing special and Chicago is back to seven games under .500 away from home. Javier Assad has had a very good season with a 3.24 ERA but he is approaching his inning count from last season and he has not been able to go deep into games. It has caught up as he is pitching to a 4.63 xERA which is ahead of only Kyle Hendricks on the staff and this is due to cooling off after a hot start as he posted a 2.27 ERA in 12 starts through May but he has a 4.81 ERA in nine starts since June. Overall, among the 94 starting pitchers that have tossed at least 100 innings, he is No. 85 in K-BB% at 9.6%. Matthew Boyd is the wild card in this matchup as he is making his season and Guardians debut after recovering from Tommy John surgery and he will likely be limited. But his recovery was great as he posted a 0.83 ERA in five rehab starts covering 21.2 innings while striking out 27. He should have success against the Cubs which are just 9-14 against lefty starters and bottom half of the league in OPS while Boyd has the best bullpen in baseball behind him. 10* (928) Cleveland Guardians | |||||||
08-12-24 | Royals v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 140 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS RL as part of our MLB Monday Double Play. Minnesota took the first two game of its series against Cleveland which cut the Guardians lead to 1.5 games in the American League Central but the Twins gave those right back over the weekend with a pair of losses Saturday and Sunday. They remain just a half-game ahead of Kansas City for the No. 2 Wild Card spot with both teams 3.0 and 2.5 games ahead of Seattle. Minnesota has edges in all three areas in this matchup, including the offense which has a wRC+ of 112 which is No. 6 compared to the Royals wRC+ of 99 which is No. 12 and that gap lengthens with home/road splits. Kansas City split its two-game set with the Cardinals and over the last month, it has struggled against good offensive teams for the most part. The Royals have gone 9-1 against the Tigers and White Sox and 4-9 against everyone else. It was a sloppy five-game homestand and they are back on the road where they are a game under .500 and as mentioned, most all of their metrics take a hit away from home. Brady Singer is having his best year of his career in terms of ERA where it is 3.03 but he has a 4.57 xERA which is ahead of only Michael Lorenzen of their five-man rotation. He has been below average with a 94 Pitching+ and he has had some good fortunes with a fairly high Luck Ranking. Like the team as a whole, his numbers get worse on the road, notably his WHIP which goes from 1.03 to 1.44. He has a bullpen behind him that is No. 26 in xFIP at 4.53 and No. 29 in K-BB% at 9.8%. Pablo Lopez has been just the opposite as he has a 4.74 ERA but it pitching to a 3.50 xERA. A lot of this is due to an above average WHIP of 1.16 thanks to a 144:29 K-BB ratio and he is ranked No. 9 in baseball with a 21.6 K-BB% among 63 qualified starting pitchers. Unlike the Royals, he has a top ten bullpen behind him as their 3.98 xFIP is tied for No. 9 and their 3.64 SIERA in also No. 9. With all of the edge in this matchup, we will take the value with the runline in a game that could turn lopsided. 10* (966) Minnesota Twins -1.5 Runs | |||||||
08-12-24 | Astros v. Rays +115 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Monday Double Play. Houston is coming off a sweep at Boston and it has won five straight games following a three-game slide. All five of the victories have been on the road where the Astros have now gotten over .500 yet they remain tied with the Mariners for first place in the American League West as Seattle has won four straight games to keep pace. They come in as the road favorite based on the winning streak and they remain a public team but there is not that big of an edge especially when comparing the starting pitchers and thew splits on the other side. Tampa Bay dropped two of three games against Baltimore but was able to salvage the series finale on Sunday with a come-from-behind 2-1 victory. The Rays have had an average start to August but they are still over .500 and within reach in the American League Wild Card standings and these are the games they need against teams ahead of them also vying for a Wild Card spot. Tampa Bay has been a .500 team at home and it brings in a top ten bullpen in xFIP with its active relief pitcher roster. Framber Valdez is pitching well after an inconsistent start and the Astros have won his last eight starts which is inflating this number. He has a 3.46 ERA overall and is pitching to a 3.76 xERA which is still very solid but like most, his numbers dip on the road and he faces an offense that can take advantage of the splits. Tamla Bay is tied for No. 3 in the American League in OPS against left-handed pitching at .754 and on the season, the Rays are 18-11 against left-handed starters. Taj Bradley is coming off a pair of poor outings but he was lights out prior to that as he allowed one run or less in eight of his previous nine starts with the only exception being where he allowed two runs at Minnesota. He is pitching to an identical 3.76 xERA as Valdez and he has been exceptional at home with a 2.04 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Houston has been above average against right-handed pitching but the numbers are down to those of Tampa Bay. 10* (962) Tampa Bay Rays |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Steve Janus | $1,518 |
Calvin King | $1,240 |
Dave Price | $1,233 |
Michael Alexander | $1,030 |
Doc's Sports | $813 |
Dustin Hawkins | $747 |
R&R Totals | $578 |
Bobby Conn | $559 |
Nick Parsons | $505 |
Mikey Sports | $461 |