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The Thunder have seemingly taken over momentum of this series but this is still too many points. OKC has been a lousy ATS pick this playoffs after being one of the best ATS teams in history in the regular season, and the oddsmakers are shading their lines as a result. We truly believe that Indiana is taking this series one game at a time and playing without a ton of pressure as they were not even supposed to be here but OKC has more pressure as title favorites for most of the season. We expect a close game here!

We are going to go with the Pacers again. Indiana continues to be underrated by the oddsmakers despite the best overall performance in the postseason so far. The Thunder are 8-12 ATS in the playoffs and they continue to get too much respect from the oddsmakers. The Pacers aren’t a team that is going to take a game off, and they know they need to win this important Game 4, then they will have three chances to close out the series. Not sure if they will win outright, but we expect a close game.

The Thunder have not been good ATS in this postseason after being one of the top ATS teams of history in the regular season. But the playoffs is a different game and opponents have risen up their level of game and we think the Pacers have a great chance to keep home court advantage in this series and win outright. Each game is its own entity, so the Pacers have the ability to put Game 2 behind them and play much better here, as we have seen in the postseason when they have before faced adversity.

Just can’t pass up this number for Indiana with the way they have played this postseason. We had this line handicapped around 6.5 and would take the Thunder at that number, but this one is on the other side of the key NBA betting number of 7 (the point the losing team stops fouling at the end of the game), so nice value here in our opinion.

The Knicks haven’t looked good in this series and even in their win you felt like the Pacers lost that game more than the Knicks won it. This short Knicks bench just doesn’t match up with the Pacers, who have better depth. A great starting 5 like the Knicks has gets worn down in the playoffs if they don’t have a proper supporting cast, and we think the Pacers will likely win this one and close it out. If they don’t win, we still think it will be a close game.

We thought the Timberwolves had a great chance in this series and we expected the Thunder to slip up somewhere in the postseason but it is obvious that OKC is the better team and matches up well. They will give their home fans a gift tonight with a double-digit win to advance to the NBA Finals. The Timberwolves blew their chance in Game 4 and the final for that game looked closer than the game actually was.

The Knicks are right back in this series and they have shown they can win on the road this season. They have been one of the best road teams in the league this season and they have also win twice in a row in Indiana after their Game 3 win. We expect a close game but we think in the end the Knicks come out on top. We think this series has a great chance to go to seven games.

We like to take a good team off a bad loss and the Thunder certainly qualify tonight. They were down big and we just think they took a mulligan in that one to save their energy for Game 4 here. They can get a win here then have a close out game at home in Game 5. We took the Timberwolves in Game 3 as we thought they would have one strong game. But OKC has been pretty dominant in this series and we think they bring their A Game to not let this series slip away.

The Knicks are still in this series. They are 5-1 on the road in the playoffs this season. They need a win here to save their season, and we believe that the Knicks with their A Game will get a comfortable win tonight. Game 3 is crazy when a team is down 2-0 because a loss pretty much seals their fate while a win puts them right back into the series. We think the latter will happen and we will take the points over moneyline as insurance.

I would consider this almost a must win for the Knicks tonight. A two-game hole when you were the home team would be catastrophic. Indiana rallied in Game 1 for a shock win when the Knicks had a comfortable lead. New York got complacent and we just don’t think that happens again. It’s telling that the oddsmakers have made them an even bigger favorite in Game 2.

We will give the Wolves a mulligan for Game 1. We still think this team has a great chance in this series or at least to take it all the way to Game 7. Minnesota hasn’t lost much in these playoffs but in their two losses they bounced back to win and cover the next game. The Timberwolves have experience winning in OKC this season and they also have the players to make adjustments and have a much better showing than they did in Game 1. We see more of the first half Wolves here in Game 2 than the second half that let down and suffered a blowout.

The NBA Playoffs are a completely different game than the regular season. OKC stormed through the regular season with the best record in the league and they were one of the best ATS teams in league history and cashed tickets on better than 67 percent of their games. We kind of wondered what they were doing there down the stretch of the season as they were giving 100 percent every game when they already had the No. 1 seed locked up. We think Golden State taught the league a lesson in 2015-16 when they had the best regular season winning percentage of all time but didn’t win the title. Teams need to manage the regular season, especially down the stretch. They need to save energy, mentally and physically, for the postseason. Well, here OKC is in the Western Conference Finals, and kudos to them. But they haven’t looked like the same team that was rolling over everyone in the regular season. They are just 4-8 ATS so far in the playoffs. They let a pretty bad Memphis team, that shouldn’t have even been a playoff team, hang around in Games 3 and 4, and the Grizzlies covered both games. A Denver team that on paper looked much worse than the Thunder took them to seven games, and OKC was 2-5 ATS in that series. The Thunder don’t have a lot of playoff experience. This WCF is uncharted territory for them. Minnesota was here last year. OKC has a quick turnaround which will be a big benefit for the well-rested Timberwolves. Minnesota is a legit championship caliber team in our eyes. They are 8-2 ATS in these playoffs. Games 1s have been tricky this playoffs for the higher seed at home. Indiana beat Cleveland. New York beat Boston. Denver beat this OKC team. Golden State beat this Timberwolves team. The Warriors also beat the Rockets. We think this will be a close game but we think the Wolves have a legit chance for the outright win. The Wolves have covered four of the last five meetings, and they have won two of the last three visits to OKC. That includes an OT win in the last meeting in February, as Minnesota won outright as a 12-point dog.

We just see the Thunder coming up big here. They have superior depth in this matchup and this is the Nuggets second Game 7 of the playoffs, so they have been putting in some overtime. We just have to imagine that the Thunder will have a big game at home and they will circle the wagons so to speak after a poor showing in Game 6. We think we might see one of their best performances of the series here in Game 7, and we think they should win this one by double digits.

We will go with the moneyline here. New York has been the better team all series and the Celtics had a Next Man Up boost in Game 5 at home but the awful reality of losing Tatum will hurt them in this close out game on the road. With Tatum out, that thins out the Celtics depth and the Knicks have a starting 5 that will get the job done tonight.

The Thunder know that Minnesota is waiting for them and we think they give 100 percent effort to close this one out tonight. We originally liked Denver to give the Thunder a lot of trouble in this series and they did, extending this one longer than most expected. But OKC has captured all the momentum with consecutive wins and this is the most reasonable line of the series for the Thunder. They would have covered this line in all three of their wins in the series. We think they have figured the Nuggets out a bit and there will be a sense of urgency tonight to get it done here in Denver.

This is a close out game and we expect both teams to lock down on defense. We think it will be a team effort from Boston with Tatum out, and they will circle the wagons tonight. We don’t think it will be enough, as we think the Knicks have a great chance to win outright. They know the Pacers are waiting in the wings and they don’t want this series to drag on. So they need to get it done tonight, and their best chance of that is on the defensive end. We expect a close, low scoring game. And as long as it doesn’t go to OT, we think this total will cash easy.

Denver has been competitive in every game in this series except Game 2 where they got down big early and threw in the white flag to conserve energy for Game 3, which they proceeded to win. They had been coming off a grueling 7-Game series against the Clippers and we can give them a mulligan for that game. Overall we think the Thunder are a bit overrated in the playoffs due to their regular season results. The playoffs is a different animal entirely. And Denver has been playing some of their best basketball of the season in the playoffs. They know what it takes to win this series. We don’t know if they will win it, but they should play another hard fought game here and we expect this one to be a close one.

We had Minnesota in Game 3 and they lost by the hook on a garbage three at the end of the game. That one came after a missed shot and an offensive rebound from the Warriors. Minnesota played pretty bad in that game and they still should have covered. We expect to see a better performance here as they don’t want this series to go on for too long. They are a much better team with Curry sidelined. They have all the momentum in this series after losing Game 1 and they have the chance to close this series out in Game 5 at home with a win here. We get the feeling we might see the best game of the series so far from the Wolves, and it seems that the Warriors might have given their last gasp in Game 3, and it still wasn’t enough.

Besides Game 2, where Denver had already secured home court advantage in the series and let the game get away from them early, the Nuggets have controlled this series. This is no longer the regular season where OKC can just roll over disinterested teams, and the Nuggets are a real threat to win this series and they are playing some of their best basketball of the season in the playoffs. Game 3 went to OT where the Nuggets pulled ahead for the win, and we think this will be another close game.

The Warriors did not look good without Curry in the lineup. With Klay gone and Curry out, the Warriors just don’t have that clutch aspect that they had during the prime of their dynasty. They have some have some good players but Butler hasn’t had time to acclimate to the team in the way that he can be a true leader. That takes at least a full season. We think there is a good chance that Minnesota will be the West’s representative in the Finals this year and we think they will make a statement here and reclaim home court advantage.

Even though Denver suffered a very embarrassing defeat in Game 2, they didn’t need to win that game. They accomplished their goal in the first two games, splitting and stealing home court advantage. They obviously didn’t play like Game 2 mattered much, and after they got down a decent amount they gave up. But overall Denver has played some of their best basketball of the season in the playoffs and they came up big when they needed to against the Clippers in the first round. This is a crucial game and we think they will show up here and give 100% effort.

We think the side and the total here are overreactions to the Curry injury. So the bookmakers expect the Warriors only to score about 90 points here? Normally other players step up when a star goes down, especially in the first game after that happens. With such a low total, these points for the underdog count more than if the total was 240. Minnesota didn’t look like a team that could blow anyone out right now after their Game 1 performance, one of their worst games of the season. We do think they will shoot better, however, and we think Golden State will play better than expected.

Denver’s Game 1 win was no fluke. This team is playing its best basketball of the season right now, and they have to be feeling confident after winning two straight in OKC now. When a big underdog wins Game 1, the line usually inflates as it has here for Game 2, but we think it should have gone the other way as we saw how good Denver is playing now. We said OKC would face some adversity in the playoffs and now is that time. We just don’t see this team responding well to the first pressure they have faced and recording a blowout here. We see another close game.

Denver is coming in playing some of their best basketball of the season. They swatted away a Clippers team that was one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and had come into that series playing amazing on offense. They won Game 7 120-101 in a game that wasn’t even nearly that close. They are playing great on both sides of the ball and the role players have elevated their games to help out Jokic. We always thought that the Thunder would face some adversity in the playoffs. They got an easy first round opponent and one they had dominated for a long time. But this team doesn’t have a lot of postseason experience and they have been off for a long time so could be rusty. Things have gone too easy for this team and we think we will see a lot of fight from Denver tonight.

5-Unit Play Take Cleveland -8 over Indiana (6 p.m. EST, Sunday May 4)

The Pacers looked good against the Bucks but they now face a huge step up in competition here. The Cavs are the much better team and they are rested and healthy. They are one of the best ATS teams this season and they will want to make a statement in Game 1. We think the Pacers will be more competitive as the series goes on, but we see a blowout in Game 1 as we think Indiana is walking into a buzzsaw today.

We have always liked the Clippers for the series and will go with them for Game 7. We think it will be a close game but LA is the better all around team and they will do what it takes to win this one. We think both teams will get their share of the total, as these games have been generally highs scoring and this is the lowest total of the series.

The home team has won every game in this series except for Game 1 when the Warriors got a leg up in this series and we think that will continue tonight. Everyone saw the Game 5 beatdown in Houston. Bettors want to jump on the Rockets here. The core of the Warriors has all the experience and they have closed out many a team at home in their careers. They know what need to be done here. Houston seems a year away and a couple more pieces from being a serious threat. We think there is a great chance that the Warriors are firing on all cylinders here and that they win this one by double digits.

The Pistons played well in Game 5 and staved off elimination but we think that was their last gasp and we don’t see the Knicks letting this one get to Game 7. This should be another close game but New York is the much better team and they will find a way to get it done. They won both games here in Detroit, so the atmosphere won’t faze them. And Game 5 was a wakeup call for them. They didn’t play well but were still within striking distance of a win. We see a very focused effort tonight, and the Knicks should have one of their better games of the series. They know they need to avoid Game 7 with tougher opponents on the horizon, and we don’t see them slipping up again.

We have liked the Wolves all series and think they will challenge for the win to close this one out. They match up well with the Lakers and they have now won five of the last seven meetings. The West is so competitive this season that it is crucial to close series out as soon as possible for extra rest and injury avoidance. Minnesota has an elite defense, which they will lean on here. The Lakers are a bit overrated, and we think this line is very public leaning.

The Clippers have been the better team in this series and are a couple unlucky bounces from already being done with this series. Denver won Game 4 on a very lucky play with a missed shot at the buzzer and they had a player in the right spot to get a slam dunk at the buzzer. We think LA will come out more focused than ever for Game 5 after losing that one in heartbreaking fashion. Denver has some injuries piling up on their already thin roster and this team needs every role player to step up as this has pretty much been a one man show that has got them this far. The Clippers are a complete team and playing as well as any team not named the Thunder down the stretch of the season. We think they bring their A Game tonight and win this one comfortably.

Cleveland knows what to do here up 3-0 in the series with some matchups tomorrow from the east where teams are up 3-1. They need to close this one out and get extra rest as the path gets a lot more difficult from here. We think they are up to the challenge. Cleveland has scored 120+ in every game of this series and their defense has also been spectacular. The Heat teams of the past really turned it on in the postseason, but this looks like a new era in Miami and this is just not a playoff caliber team this year.

These teams showed they can both lock down on defense in Game 3, and we think this game will be more like the second half of that game than the first half. These are two of the best defensive teams in the league and buckets will be hard to come by. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, and Orlando really has found some things that will work well with slowing the Celtics down. And there is always a good chance that the Magic will have a real low team total. Boston has scored under the century mark in four of five meetings in Orlando, and we think that is likely to happen again.

We think the Lakers are overrated. They always are. They are the biggest public team in the NBA since the 80s, and their lines are normally shaded. They have a good team this season, no doubt, and Luka will be a force for years to come. But he came in a little late in the season to fully gel with his teammates. Minnesota started off slow as they needed time to gel, but they are a complete team now and a true championship contender. Game 3 is always a big one, and we expect them to rise to the occasion tonight. They have won four straight against LA at home.

The Clippers could easily be up 2-0 in this series. They are the better team despite the seedings. The Clippers are a team built for the playoffs. They are only the lower seed because of injuries early in the season. But this is the best Clippers team in the history of the franchise and they are a true championship contender. Besides OKC, they are probably playing the best basketball in the league right now. We think home court will reign supreme tonight and we expect the Clippers to pull ahead in the fourth and win this one pretty comfortably.

We think this is an extremely fair price for the Celtics tonight. They didn’t even play their best in Game 1 and won by 17. We think they should do even better tonight. They can play lock down defense as well as the Magic or maybe better, and they are a much stronger offensive team. Tatum is out here for Game 2 for the Celtics, but this team has incredible depth and they went 8-2 in games he missed this season. Strangely, those two losses were against the Magic, but Boston had large injury reports in those two games, both in Orlando. They are much healthier here, and at home, and they have plenty of players to make up the slack for Tatum. And this team knows the importance of closing this series out early against a much inferior opponent, so we don’t think they will let up here and we expect a strong team performance all around. The home team has won and covered now in eight straight meetings, and we expect that trend to continue here, at least for one more game.

We have tried to resist taking the Thunder too much and going against them sometime as the lines swelled, but they just keep covering and winning big. They embarrassed the Grizzlies in Game 1 by 50+. Most times we would like the losing team to come back strong and more focused, but Memphis just doesn’t seem like that sort of squad this year. OKC has now covered in nine of 10 meetings, and we think this series will continue to be one sided. OKC will face some adversity in future rounds, but this should be smooth sailing for them tonight.

3-Unit Play Take Houston -1 over Golden State (9:30 p.m. EST, Sunday April 20)

We think this is a good matchup for the Rockets and we think they have a great chance to send the Warriors home early, Golden State played well down the stretch and the Butler trade gave them a Big 3 again, but Curry and Green are just not the players they were in their prime. Houston lacks the star names but this is a more complete team and they have been very strong at home. We think this series will probably go the distance, but Houston will make a statement here in Game 1.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

5-Unit Play Take LA Clippers +2.5 over Denver (3:30 p.m. EST, Saturday April 19)

The Nuggets have pretty much been a one-man team most of the season. Their role players have been up and down but this just doesn't look like a championship caliber team this season. The Clippers do. They are healthy and have been playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch. This team has some of the best depth in the league and they have been playing great team basketball. Kawhi Leonard looks like he is on a mission to prove the doubters wrong, and this team seems to have great morale and confidence right now.

4-Unit Play Take Dallas +6 over Memphis (9:30 p.m. EST, Friday April 18)

Dallas looked great in their road play in game against the Kings. We just really like them to keep this one close or win outright. This team lost their two stars, with Doncic traded and Irving injured, but they still have the best player on the court in Anthony Davis, and a lot of players with winning experience in the postseason after their run to the NBA Finals last season. We think the NBA would want the Mavs in the postseason also over the bad-vibes Grizzlies, so we might get some calls that go our way as well.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

The NBA is all about its stars in the playoffs, and Atlanta with Trae Young is the best player on the court tonight. The Magic just aren’t the same team they were last season and this doesn’t seem like a team built for postseason success this year. Atlanta has been solid on the road this season, and they come into this one with some momentum, with three straight wins to close out the regular season, including one vs. Orlando (most starters rested in this one). We think the Hawks have a great chance to win this one outright.

The old Lob City Clippers were always owned by the Warriors, but this new version of the Clippers has dominated Golden State. They have won six straight and covered in five straight. They are just the better team, they are in better form, and they are one of the hottest teams in the league. Neither team is in a safe position in the playoffs, so this will be like a postseason game, and we think the Clippers will rise to the occasion and they have a great chance for the outright win.

The Clippers have won three straight in this series and five of seven. We feel they match up very favorably to the Kings. That’s not to mention that the Clippers are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. They are playing at a Championship level right now. The Kings don’t have anywhere near that kind of ceiling. Sacramento is locked into the play in tournament, while the Clippers are in the regular playoffs as of the start of action today but have two play in teams (not the Kings) hot on their trail so these last games of the season are the most crucial for them. LA has some players on the injury report tonight, but this team has great depth so they will have a chance to win comfortably with the team they field tonight. The Kings haven’t had much home court advantage lately as they have won only one of their last six home games, and that win was against Portland. We think LA keeps their momentum going tonight.

This is a key game for the Western Conference and the Timberwolves are currently in the play in tourney but one game out of the playoffs. Memphis is that team that they are one game behind. Minnesota had a tough start to the season but things have mostly come together at the right time for them, and they are the better team in this matchup. They are healthy and rested and we expect a strong performance tonight.

The Clippers should have covered last night vs. the Spurs but a late flurry kept the score closer than the game actually was. This game is very important to the Clippers but not so much for the Rockets, who are more locked in to their playoff spot. Kawhi was a scratch last night against the Spurs, so he will probably play here. He will be fresh, and the Clippers have great depth, so we doubt a back-to-back, at home no less, will be much of a factor.

The Clippers are playing as well as any team in the league right now and they are one loss from dropping into the play in, so this is the most important game of the season, just like their next game will be. We think they demolish the Spurs here. San Antonio has had an incredibly tough season, and this team as much as any is looking towards next season. They lost their coach and best players, and they just need a reset. They have been competitive in some matchups, but they have lost five of their last eight games by double digits.

The Sixers have been the most disappointing team in the NBA this season, and they don’t have much hope for a strong finish to the regular season. They have had a crazy amount of injuries this season and the body count keeps rising. They are fielding a glorified G-League team right now, and Miami is motivated tonight and should win this one in a blowout. Philly has covered only one of their last ten games despite some very generous spreads. The Heat have covered in seven of the last nine meetings.

Boston is pretty much locked into their playoff position and it’s extremely doubtful they will give 100% here. Washington probably will, as it’s always a big game when any team from the East plays Boston. We could suffer a blowout here and still win ATS. Brown and Tatum are both listed as questionable for the Celtics, and you really have to question if they will play of get ample playing time here in a matchup they are not needed for.

It’s telling that these teams played on Friday and the Clippers scored an easy blowout yet we are getting a smaller spread this time out. We were on the Clippers yesterday but we think it’s not only hard to score two blowouts in a row over one team but even win consecutive games. We don’t know what the rosters that take the floor will look like but most likely anything out of the norm would go against the Clippers (Davis and Thompson returning for Dallas or Kawhi out for LAC). We think the Mavs will make some adjustments and at least keep this one close.

5 Unit Play. Take #681 Florida over Auburn (6:09p.m., Saturday, April 5 CBS) Just feel Florida is the better and healthier team in this matchup. Florida already won at Auburn earlier this season and they have the best player in the floor in Walter Clayton, Jr. Sonner or later he will got hot in this game and go on a run by himself and win this for his team. Auburn has naggy injuries to a couple of key players and that will catch up to them. The Gators have a winning record in the semifinals 3-2 and they advance on to the championship game.

The Spurs have been horrible on defense down the stretch. This team has dealt with a lot of bad luck this season from the coach all the way down to their two best players. If any team wants the season to end and focus on next year, it’s these Spurs. And that porous defense is not ideal against one of the best offensive teams in the league. The Spurs are coming off a win at Denver where any good player the Nuggets had was out, and they should be Fat and Happy and we don’t see them putting in much effort here.

These teams played in late March, here in Washington, a 120-105 Orlando win. We actually think that the Magic can do better than that offensively here. They have shown they can put up big numbers against bad defenses, and they desperately need wins so they will leave nothing up to chance. The over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings. Washington is a ragtag group as they have lots of injuries, but they should bring some pace here and the Magic will play along. And being at home, they have a better chance to earn their share of the total.

This just looks like a blowout to us. The Spurs are on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. They were blown out in both those games. They don’t have much to play for here, and the Nuggets are fighting for playoff position. With the top of the West so competitive, a losing steak could even send a team like Denver into the play in. So they have to be focused here towards the end of the season, and we think this is an easy win for them tonight.

3 Unit Play. Take #666 Villanova over Colorado (8:30p.m., Tuesday, April 1 FS1) The Wildcats have an interim coach, but I expect them to play well in this tournament. Colorado had a terrible season and beating TCU a couple of times will not benefit them in this game. I am looking for the Wildcats in front of Kevin Willard to win this game by double digits.

2 Unit Play. Take #656 Washington State over Georgetown (11p.m., Monday, March 31 FS1) This is a late-night start for the Hoyas coming from the eastern time and they game likely will not start on time as well. Wazzou wants to be in this tournament, and I see them trying to make a statement coming from a mid-major conference.

The Clippers are on a back-to-back after playing the Cavs last night and they played well in a loss. They have dropped into the play in tournament and are one game out of the regular playoffs, creating a must win situation here after the loss last night. The Magic are in the play in and will stay there as they don’t have a realistic chance of moving up. If the Clippers were in the East they would be one of the top seeds even with an up and down season. The Clippers are the better team and have more motivation. This is a very deep squad and the B2B should not be a huge deal. And Kawhi could play tonight, and he would be fresh after sitting in Cleveland.

Kawhi is out here for the Clippers and we think the oddsmakers are punishing them too much for this on the line. This is a deep team and they are playing well at the moment and we expect a close game. The Clippers have won two straight meetings and scored a blowout win over Cleveland in LA on March 18. Forget about the revenge angle as enough time has passed for Cleveland to put that loss in the rearview. The Cavs have covered only two of their last eight, so they have been a bit overvalued by the oddsmakers. We feel that is the case here again tonight.

2 Unit Play. Take #648 Houston -150 money line over Tennessee (2:20p.m., Sunday, March 30 CBS) Rick Barnes just does not win many big games in the NCAA Tournament. The Volunteers have never made the Final Four and I look for that to continue on Sunday. Houston is the better defensive team and Tennessee will struggle to score points.

2 Unit Play. Take #642 Under 175 in Alabama vs Duke (8:49p.m., Saturday, March 29 TBS) The law of averages says this game will stay under. Duke has a strong defense, and Alabama cannot shoot it that well for a second straight game can they?

The Clippers have won by double digits in the last two meetings and they had one of their biggest wins of the season and one of the biggest blowouts in the NBA this season when these teams met in January in a 126-67 Clippers win. Forget about revenge. Brooklyn has lost to a lot of teams since then and they are probably more focused on the offseason since they have been eliminated. The Clippers are barely in the playoffs right now and they need to win to avoid the play in tournament. This is essentially a must win, and the Clippers are rested and healthy, while the Nets have starters on the injury report.

10 Unit Play. Take #636 Michigan State over Ole Miss (7:09p.m., Friday, March 28 CBS) It might not always be pretty, but Michigan State will find away to pull away late and win this game by 8-10 points. The Spartans were the best team in the Big 10 this season and have great depth that will cause problems for Rebels in this game. Ole Miss did not finish the season strong and they played two teams that were nowhere near as good or well coached than the Spartans. Chris Beard has already proven he was a great hire, but his team’s run will end in the Sweet 16.

The Magic have been playing really well lately. They have one of the best defenses in the NBA, and now all of the sudden their offense is clicking. They have scored 110 or more in seven of their last ten, and they have had a couple games against bad defenses where they scored in the 120 range. Well, the Mavs have been playing some of the worst defense in the league recently and this team has given up 120+ in eight of their last 10 games. It’s safe to say that they haven’t covered many games giving up those types of point totals. If Orlando can keep playing like they have, they have an outside shot of playing their way out of the play in tournament and into the regular playoff field. They need to win almost every game, however, and they need to especially win against no hope teams like Dallas who are waiting for the offseason to begin.

10 Unit Play. Take #627 BYU over Alabama (7:09p.m., Thursday, March 27 CBS) Alabama has not been the same team this season and I believe BYU is a better offensive version of them. The Cougars are riding high after scoring a ton of points in their first two games of the NCAA tournament. They have lost just one time since February 9 and I feel they have a great chance to win this game straight-up. If BYU can jump out early look for them to control the game and Alabama will feel the pressure.

The Clippers have been playing championship caliber basketball recently and this is a team no one will want to face in the playoffs if they stay healthy. You can tell the Knicks miss Brunson a lot as their offense isn’t working well and they have been overall inconsistent. They don’t have a performance recently that was extremely impressive and they have been beating the teams they should but losing to solid teams. They lost to the Clippers earlier this month in a low scoring game. The Clippers have won and covered in four of five meetings.

We went big on the over last night for the Lakers/Magic contest and that was one of Orlando’s biggest wins of the season. We think this will be a flat spot for their offense. It’s hard to get excited about the Hornets coming to town after playing against LeBron and company last night, and a back-to-back is always tough as the Magic gave 100 percent in their win. The Hornets stink and there’s a good chance the Magic blow them out regardless. A blowout would bode well for the under as Charlotte can be held under 100 here easy.

The Lakers have a couple key players on the injury report but should mostly be at full strength here. There could be a line move depending on injury updates, but we think this one will go well over the posted number. The Magic are really clicking on offense right now and they are playing their best offensive basketball of the season by far. This team has been an Under machine for most of the season, where they struggled to reach the century mark on the scoreboard night in and night out. But they have scored 108 or more in eight of their last nine games. They have gone over 110 in six of those games, and over 120 in two, including last time out against the Wizards. Orlando has picked up their pace of play, and they have been playing with real confidence on the offensive end. Seven of their last 11 games have gone over the posted number as a result. The Lakers are trending to the over, as six of their last eight have gone over the posted total. They allowed 146 last time out in a loss to the Bulls. They have been putting up 115 or more on offense on a regular basis lately. These teams put up 230+ in the last meeting in November. That was a close game, and we expect this one to be as well. Overtime is not out of the question. Five of the last six meetings have surpassed this total. We think the oddsmakers are a little behind on the way this Magic offense has improved, and as a result there has been value in their overs in recent games.

4 Unit Play. Take #868 Kentucky over Illinois (5:15p.m., Sunday, March 23 CBS) Just not buying the love Illinois is getting from the odds makers. They rallied for some nice wins to close out the regular season but got killed by Maryland in the quarterfinals of the Big 10 Tournament. I do not believe they are great in any area and their defense is not strong this season. When they lose, they tend to get blown out and I see Kentucky dominating this game for start to finish. Kentucky is getting healthier, and this is an important game for Coach Pope to show they are moving in the right direction. They played in the SEC and I see more battle tested in this game. They shoot it well from the arc and are due for some ATS wins in the NCAA Tournament. Lamont Butler will play better in his second game back.

7 Unit Play. Take #860 Florida -9 over Connecticut (12:10p.m., Sunday, March 23 CBS) It ends today. The back-to-back champions will flame out on Sunday against the last team to go back to back. The Huskies just do not have the firepower to stay in this game and Florida will go on a run at some point and win it easily. The Gators played in the toughest conference in the country and blew out Tennessee and Alabama last week. The Gators are 26-6 ATS in their last 32 games. They did not cover the spread in the round of 64 but will cover the spread in the round of 32. UCONN lacks high end talent, explosiveness, and experience. It will come crashing down on Sunday and we will back the best team in the league.

We like what we have seen from the Bucks lately and they have covered in four of their last six games. This team has seen its share of ups and downs over the course of the season, but they have been playing playoff-quality basketball recently. They have a strong history here as they have won nine of 10 meetings, and these teams don’t play often so that streak stretched back many years.

4 Unit Play. Take #828 Wisconsin over BYU (7:45p.m., Saturday, March 22 CBS) We have rode Wisconsin for much of the season and feel this is the year Greg Gard and company can break through and reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2017. They match up well with BYU and feel that the only advantage the Cougars have is that they have played at altitude more frequently. BYU shoots a lot of three-point shots and they will have to make a bunch in order to win this game. Wisconsin struggles with tall post players and their defense has improved during the second half of Big 10 play. Look for them to guard the arc and make BYU beat them inside. I do not believe that they will be able to do that.  

All the sudden the Clippers are looking like a championship caliber ball club. If they keep playing like this and enter the postseason healthy, this is going to be a team no one in the west will want to match up against. They have won seven of eight and covered in six of those games. They have had two days rest after absolutely decimating the Cavs at home on Tuesday. Memphis has been one of the best ATS teams this year but has covered in only two of their last 10. They have been overvalued by the oddsmakers and have not matched their early season play. They are also banged up, while the Clippers are healthy.

10 Unit Play. Take #779 Baylor over Mississippi State (12:15p.m., Friday, March 20 CBS) The Bulldogs got off to a fast start but faltered down the stretch losing 5 of their last 7 games. Playing in the SEC takes its toll and I do not feel Mississippi State will have much left for the tournament. Baylor is well coached, and I like their style of play for the NCAA Tournament. They are battle tested as well and played a difficult nonconference schedule. They beat St. Johns and half of their 14 losses have come by 4 points or less. Coach Drew has won 6 straight opening round games (5-1 ATS) and the Bulldogs have not won an NCAA Tournament Games since 2008.

Every now and then the Raptors have a bad game where they get run out of the building. That is pretty rare though as this team puts up a fight almost every night. So after a 40-point blowout in Phoenix last time out, we feel we will see a much better effort from this team. Toronto has had a couple days off since that loss and have two days off after this, so they can give max effort here tonight.

2 Unit Play. Take #770 Under in UC San Diego vs Michigan (10p.m., Thursday, March 20 TBS) Michigan looked dead tired in the Championship Game of the 2025 Big Ten on Sunday and expect that to be a carryover effect into this game on Thursday. We will side with the under, as UCSD is a defensive oriented team that holds most of their opponents into the 50s. Everyone likes the underdog, but we will focus on the under in this game.

2 Unit Play. Take #765 Drake over Missouri (7:35p.m., Thursday, March 20 TruTV) This is unfamiliar territory for Missouri, and I do not see them blowing out one of the best mid-major teams in the country. The Tigers did most of their damage at home this season and this will be at a neutral site in Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita, KS. Drake also has the best scorer on the floor in Bennett Stirtz and a 30-3 record. They are close by as well and should bring a big crowd. Take the points as the Tigers have only made the second round once since 2011.

2 Unit Play. Take #773 Over in VCU vs BYU (4:05p.m., Thursday, March 20 TNT) Both teams have their moments when they can get up and down the court and I expect BYU to be able to control the pace of the game. The Cougars have gone over this posted number in 3 of their last 4 games. Teams tend to play it out in the NCAA Tournament with fouls even though the have no chance to win and that will be the case on Thursday.

2 Unit Play. Take #721 Northern Iowa over SMU (9p.m., Wednesday, March 19 ESPN2) We will grab the points tonight with a well-coached Panthers team that is happy to be in the NIT. SMU is coming off a tough loss to Clemson last time out and I expect there to be a carryover into this game for the Mustangs.

3 Unit Play. Take #683 Over in Cal State Northridge @ Stanford (11p.m., Tuesday, March 18 ESPN2) I always like to play the over in NIT games, as often coaching in less restrictive and they just let they players go up and down the court and have fun. Northridge has been scoring a bunch of points of late, and this game should reach the 160s in points.

As of this writing Tatum is questionable for the Celtics and Brown is out, so Brooklyn should be able to stay within double digits here. Every game from here on out is basically a must win for the Nets, who are well outside the play in tourney at the moment. Brooklyn has covered in four of their last five games and they have been exceeding oddsmaker expectations. These teams just played in Brooklyn and the Nets almost won. We think this will be another close game.

Any bet against Washington is a good one, and the Nuggets should roll in this one. We see no reason they don’t win this one by 20+. The Wizards have been given generous spreads all season yet they have a terrible ATS record and this squad is blown out on a regular basis. They are Fat and Happy, as we say, after a win over Detroit last time out in a quick revenge spot. They earned their night off tonight, and we don’t expect to see the same effort.

2 Unit Play. Take #609 Wisconsin over Michigan State (1p.m., Saturday, March 15 CBS) Wisconsin collected for us yesterday in blowout fashion with our Conference Tournament Game of the Year. We will ride the hot hand tonight again, as I expect this game to go down to the wire with Wisconsin edging out the victory. The Badgers beat Purdue last year in the semifinals and feel they will ride that wave to a victory on Saturday.

Orlando has failed to reach the century mark in two of the last three meetings. Whenever they take the court, it’s possible they don’t reach 100 points. And this certainly looks like one of those games where they will fail to do so. They come in on a back-to-back and they put up 113 in a game vs. the Pelicans where New Orleans didn’t play much defense. Now they face a Minnesota club that will lock down on the defensive end. And this looks very much like a flat spot for the Magic, a team without great depth. After a string of a few overs, Orlando has gone under in two straight, and we think the trend will continue. The only chance the Magic have here as a double-digit dog is to slow the game down as no team but them can do, with the slowest pace in the league. Minnesota held Denver to 95 last time out, and we think we could see another defensive masterpiece from them tonight.

7 Unit Play. Take #815 Wisconsin over UCLA (2:30p.m., Friday, March 14 BTN) Wisconsin has a game their belt in Indianapolis and got whole yesterday with two players back from injury. UCLA will come in cold and I feel Wisconsin will get up early and control the game. Wisconsin is the better offensive team and has revenge on their minds from losing at Pauley.

2 Unit Play. Take #782 Colorado State over Nevada (9p.m., Thursday, March 13 CBS Sports Network) Nevada suffered another injury on Thursday and I don’t think they have much left in the tank for this game. They will battle early but they have yet to defeat a top team in the MWC this season.

These teams played here on Tuesday, and the Pistons won in a blowout. It’s very hard to have the same result over one team in consecutive games. Washington is a terrible team. But they are now very familiar with these Pistons from the recent meeting and they will make some adjustments tonight. It’s telling that after Detroit covered on Tuesday that this line is smaller than the closing line in the last meeting. The sharp play here is the Wizards.

2 Unit Play. Take #780 San Diego State over Boise State (5:30p.m., Thursday, March 13 CBS Sports Network) The Broncos have not had much success in this tournament and I am surprised they be came the favorite in this game. Both teams are fighting for an NCAA Tournament bid and the Aztecs have had much more success in Las Vegas compared to the Broncos.

2 Unit Play. Take #739 Marquette over Xavier (2:30p.m., Thursday, March 13 Peacock) I am not ready to give up on the Golden Eagles during postseason play. Marquette faded down the stretch, but they are still the more talented team in this matchup.

4 Unit Play. Take #685 Butler over Providence (4p.m., Wednesday, March 12 Peacock) Just feel Butler is the more healthier team for this rubber match between two bad teams. Providence has won just one game since February and all of this losing has taken its toll on them. Butler is a streaky team and it would not surprise me if they make a little noise in this tournament.

We are big fans of what they are doing in Detroit and the way this team has been playing. However, we don’t think they are ready to lay this type of spread. They are coming off a four-game West Coast road trip and the first game back home can be tricky as players navigate personal lives. The focus might not be there for this game. Washington recently played a double set like they will against Detroit (these teams play again Thursday). Washington won the first game against Toronto before suffering a blowout in the second game. We think we might see the same pattern here.

These teams played yesterday and the Thunder laid a beat down but it’s not only hard to beat the same team on consecutive days but also hard to score a blowout in consecutive games. Not to mention that the Thunder don’t have much to play for down the stretch with the No. 1 seed well in hand. Denver has been playing well lately overall and they should be focused here. We always state revenge is an overrated handicapping aspect in pro sports. But it does come into play in situations like this, where the loss is still fresh on the losing team’s mind.

Minnesota has been overrated by the oddsmakers all season and this line looks inflated as well. Could the Timberwolves run the Spurs out of the building tonight? Sure. But we think San Antonio can keep this one within double digits. The Spurs suffered an embarrassing loss at Sacramento last time out where the team didn’t give full effort, so they will probably be more motivated to play hard here. San Antonio has covered in six of the last seven meetings, and we expect that trend to continue here.

2 Unit Play. Take #805 Over in Bradley vs Drake (2:10p.m., Sunday, March 9 CBS) This might be a winner take all game, as the MWC has fallen off the map in terms of NCAA relevance. Both teams will play it out to the end and foul if they are down and thus I expect the total to reach the 120s.  

We are basically always going to look closely at a home dog getting this many points. The game can be a blowout and we can still cover. The Hornets have been pretty good recently when getting double digit points. Maybe they check the lines and don’t want to be disrespected. Whatever the case, we think they will want to put up a fight tonight. The Cavs have covered only one of their last three. That isn’t too crazy, but this team is covering at a high rate this season. But they are playing their third game in four nights and they have Milwaukee on deck on Sunday, so they might not give full effort here in a game they don’t need to in order to win.

2 Unit Play. Take #866 North Dakota State -2.5 over South Dakota (7p.m., Friday, March 7) We will side with the traditional top half team in the Summitt in North Dakota State on Friday in this quarterfinal game in the 2025 Summit Conference Tournament. The Bison won both games this season by a combined 30 points including winning in South Dakota by 26 points.

It seems as if the Jimmy Butler trade has paid off for the Warriors and they are playing as well as any team in the league right now. They have won and covered in seven of their last eight. They have scored double digit road wins in three of their last five away from home, and those wins were over the Knicks, Hornets and Kings. Two of those were playoff clubs. It seems obvious that the Nets won’t make the play-in tournament and this team is fading down the stretch. They have lost five straight coming into this one. They have lost their last three games by a combined 54 points, and none of these teams were nearly as good as the Warriors. Brooklyn is one of those strange cases where they have played better on the road than at home this season. The fans haven’t had much to cheer about, and most in the building tonight will be there to see the Warriors stars in person. Brooklyn has given up 120+ in three of their last four, and that is not a good sign against a Warriors team that has been playing extremely well offensively.

2 Unit Play. Take #806 Omaha -3.5 over UMKC (7p.m., Thursday, March 6 Flo Sports) UMKC has been a major underachiever this season and they will be knocked out by the No. 1 seed in the Summit League Thursday night. The Mavericks have beaten Roos twice this season by a combined total of 31 points. UMKC is still getting too much respect from the odds makers, they are just not that good in 2025.

The Clippers are quickly falling out of the playoff picture due to a recent string of bad play. We don’t have much positive analysis for them here other than a gut feeling that they will circle the wagons tonight and at least give a massive effort on defense. If they had been playing better this would just be another game, but this now seems like one of the more important games of the season, especially after blowing a huge lead at Phoenix last night and losing that game. This does seem like an inflated spread and we think this will be a close, low scoring game.

3 Unit Play. Take #712 Connecticut over Marquette (8:30p.m., Wednesday, March 5 FS1) Just do not feel Marquette is strong this year and they struggle to matchup with UCONN. The Huskies need this game more since they want to get off the 8/9 for seeding. They already won in Milwaukee by 8 points and that is how I see this game going as well.

2 Unit Play. Take #655 New Mexico over Nevada (9p.m., Tuesday, March 4 CBSSN) Just feel Nevada is out of gas this season and does not have the scorers needed to beat the top teams in the MWC. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games including a blowout loss to rival UNLV last time out. New Mexico cannot afford any more losses if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. They need this game and will get it by 6-8 points.

Wins have been hard to come by for San Antonio and this team received a blow when Wemby was ruled out for the season. But that shock has passed and the Spurs still have a decent team. This is definitely a winnable matchup for them and we expect them to take care of business tonight. The Nets have suffered consecutive blowouts. They haven’t stayed within this number in any of their recent losses. The Spurs have won and covered in the last two meetings and three of the last four. Not sure what the motivation level will be for this Nets team tonight, but we are confident that the Spurs need a win and they should play hard in front of the home fans tonight.

Even though the Blazers are on a back-to-back, we still think there is nice value here as we had this game closer to PK. Portland has the look of a team on the rise and this team won’t be tanking to finish off the season. They want to build some momentum heading into next year. They have won four of five and they played a very strong game in Cleveland on Sunday in a close loss. Philly is a walking infirmary ward right now and this team has real low morale at the moment. No bet against them is a bad one right now.