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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-13-19||Chargers v. Patriots -3.5||Top||28-41||Win||100||121 h 31 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #306 New England Patriots over Los Angeles Chargers (1:05p.m., Sunday, January 13 CBS) The Chargers have been on a roll but playing their third straight road games against a rested team will doom them in. The Patriots are a much better team at home and they are the only team that did not lose a home game this season. Los Angeles still seems to be banged up at the skill positions and I am not sure that their wide receivers can stretch the field against New England. QB Rivers is 1-5 in his career against New England and is 0-2 in the playoffs. New England is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against New England. Everyone is doubting the Patriots at this moment, but they still are the Patriots with the best coach/quarterback combo of all time. New England dominates for 60 minutes and wins this game by double digits.
|12-16-18||Patriots -2 v. Steelers||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||77 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #327 New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 16 CBS) Both teams need to turn the page quickly after bad losses last Sunday. The Patriots seldom lose two games in a row and they are playing a team in disarray at the moment. Pittsburgh has not beaten New England since 2011 and the Patriots are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss in their previous game. Over this winning streak, the Patriots average margin of victory is 11 points against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played during the month of December. New England is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in December.
|12-09-18||Eagles +4 v. Cowboys||Top||23-29||Loss||-110||123 h 5 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #129 Philadelphia Eagles over Dallas Cowboys (1:25p.m., Sunday, December 9 FOX) Everyone has just given the Cowboys the NFC East and disregarded the defending Super Bowl Champions. We will gladly take the points in this game and look for Philadelphia to come out strong in this must win game for them. The Eagles are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road divisional games when they are an underdog. The Cowboys are 9-18 ATS in their last 27 home divisional games when they are a favorite. The road team has covered the spread in 11 of the last 14 match-ups.
|12-02-18||Vikings v. Patriots -5.5||Top||10-24||Win||100||122 h 21 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #376 New England Patriots over Minnesota Vikings (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 2 FOX) These back to back road games on the docket for Minnesota will likely doom them in. Going to New England this week and Seattle the next week is as tough to travel as there is in the league. Minnesota just does not have the same defense that they had last year. New England will be able to score in the thirties in this game and I just do not believe Minnesota will be able to keep pace. The Patriots are starting to get healthy and they are always tough to beat in December (8-1 ATS last 9 December games). Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Patriots have just been going through the motions of late, but this is a game that they will get up for and win it by double-digits.
|11-04-18||Chargers v. Seahawks -1||Top||25-17||Loss||-115||119 h 14 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #468 Seattle Seahawks over Los Angeles Chargers (1:05p.m., Sunday, November 4 CBS) The Seahawks have been playing outstanding football of late and will enter this game having won 4 of their last 5 games. It could be 5-0 if not for a 2-point loss to the Rams. QB Wilson is getting the job done with a bunch of unheralded playmakers around him. They were dominate for three quarters last week against the Lions and look for more of the same this Sunday at home against the Chargers. LA is still banged up on both sides of the football and might be without some key playmakers for this game. LA is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye. Seattle still has a lot of home games remaining this season and I look for them to win all of them and make the playoffs as a wild card. The Chargers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Seattle has covered the spread 4 of their last 5 games.
|10-28-18||Packers +9.5 v. Rams||Top||27-29||Win||100||123 h 16 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #271 Green Bay Packers over Los Angeles Rams (4:25p.m., Sunday, October 28 FOX) TOP NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK. This is one of the largest spreads you will ever see against the Packers with Aaron Rodgers has quarterback. I believe it is too big considering the Packers are coming off a bye and should be able to get some key players back for this game. The Rams have been struggling to cover big numbers despite last week’s romp against an inferior opponent (San Francisco). Expect a shootout int his game that goes down to the wire. Green Bay will have a ton of fans in Los Angeles for this game and the Rams struggled to win home games last year. 56% of the early money is coming in on the Packers and that seldom happens with an underdog with this big of a number. Green Bay has covered the spread 5 straight times against the LA Rams.
|09-30-18||Browns v. Raiders -1.5||Top||42-45||Win||100||118 h 17 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #270 Oakland Raiders over Cleveland Browns (4:05p.m., Sunday, September 20 CBS) The Raiders have had chances in all three of their games but sit at 0-3. This is a very important game for the Raiders and a must win if they have any chance of making the playoffs this season. QB Baker Mayfield will get the start after a nice performance at home against the Jets. Playing in the Black Hole is a much harder task. Cleveland is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between Cleveland and Oakland.
|09-16-18||Giants +3 v. Cowboys||Top||13-20||Loss||-108||122 h 53 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #287 New York Giants over Dallas Cowboys (8:20p.m., Sunday, September 16 NBC) Both teams are coming off losses in Week 1 but I just see more hope with the Giants compared to the Cowboys. Dallas used to have a strong offensive line but that is not the case anymore. They still have RB Elliott but defenses can stack the line against them since they do not have much deep threat wide receivers. Dallas is just 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games against a divisional team. New York will win this game straight-up because they have many more weapons on offense compared to Dallas. New York has covered the spread in 5 of the last 7 meetings with Dallas.
|09-09-18||Jaguars v. Giants +3||Top||20-15||Loss||-100||95 h 53 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #462 New York Giants over Jacksonville Jaguars (1p.m., Sunday September 9 FOX) Jacksonville is going to start the year in an unfamiliar role, as a road favorite. I see them taking a step back this season and things have to be better for the Giants in 2018. Jacksonville is just 2-6 ATS in road openers in recent years. QB Manning has numerous weapons this season, something he sorely lacked as the 2017 season progressed. Jacksonville’s defense feasted on bad quarterback play in their own division and I expect them to give up points and yards against effective quarterbacks. Jacksonville is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games played during the month of December.
|02-04-18||Eagles v. Patriots -4||Top||41-33||Loss||-107||126 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #102 New England Patriots over Philadelphia Eagles (6:30p.m., Sunday February 4 NBC) I feel this is a pretty solid line, but I just cannot see New England losing this game straight-up. All of the Tom Brady Super Bowl games have been close and New England is just due for a convincing win to cap off a great career of Brady and Belichick. Nick Foles still cannot be trusted and I do not expect him to be able to put up big numbers on a neutral field against this New England defense. Philadelphia is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. New England is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record.
|01-14-18||Saints v. Vikings -4||Top||24-29||Win||100||121 h 28 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #308 Minnesota Vikings over New Orleans (4:40p.m., Sunday January 14 FOX) The Vikings will complete the season sweep of the Saints on Sunday. The Vikings have won 10 of their last 11 games and already beat the Saints by double digits. Despite the Saints being much improved on defense they are still at a major disadvantage in this game with an advantage of all three components of the defense (line, linebackers, and secondary). QB Brees will have to play outstanding for New Orleans to be competitive in this game and I do not see that happening. His receivers made remarkable catches last week against Carolina and I just do not believe that they can do that for a second consecutive week. New Orleans has not been playing that well of late going 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Minnesota is 34-16 ATS (1 push) in their last 41 home games.
Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports
|01-13-18||Falcons v. Eagles +3||Top||10-15||Win||100||97 h 15 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #302 Philadelphia Eagles over Atlanta Falcons (4:35p.m., Saturday January 13 NBC) Everyone is on the Atlanta Falcons bandwagon and off the Philadelphia Eagles. A No. 1 seed has never been an underdog in the divisional round but that is the case on Saturday. The Eagles still have a ton of talent around the quarterback position and they will be able to play the no respect card in a big way on Saturday. Atlanta had the benefit of playing in a warm weather city last week but that will not be the case in Philadelphia this Saturday. QB Ryan has not played up to his MVP standards of a year ago and I still have no confidence in their offensive coordinator. The Eagles have a top ranked defense against the run and that should make Atlanta one-dimensional. The Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
|11-23-17||Chargers v. Cowboys +1||Top||28-6||Loss||-110||49 h 59 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #110 Take Dallas Cowboys over Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday 4:30 pm CBS) The Cowboys face a must win situation when they host their annual Thanksgiving Day game. The Chargers are coming off their best performance of the season but most of that success had to be with Buffalo QB Nathan Peterman throwing five interceptions. The Chargers are playing on Thanksgiving for the first time since the merger and playing Thursday games on the road is always a tough task. Dallas is getting a step down in class compared to their last two games (Philadelphia & Atlanta) and should be getting back some of their players for this game. The Chargers never seem to handle prosperity well evident by their loss at Jacksonville two weeks ago and you just cannot count on them to win games consistently. Los Angeles is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a victory in their previous game. Dallas is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record.
|11-19-17||Lions v. Bears +3||Top||27-24||Push||0||119 h 13 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #452 Take Chicago Bears over Detroit Lions (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Bears are coming off a terrible performance against Green Bay last Sunday. They played terrible and coached terrible at different times in that game and still have a decent chance to win it. Now they take on the Lions, a team that has won two straight games, but they did not look impressive last week against Cleveland. The Bears beat the Lions last year in Chicago and Detroit is just 2-6 ATS (1 push) as a road favorite in a divisional game. Chicago is 8-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 home games when they are an underdog. Chicago has already beaten Pittsburgh and Carolina at home this season and Detroit never seems to handle prosperity very well.
|11-05-17||Rams v. Giants +3.5||Top||51-17||Loss||-105||120 h 8 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #454 Take New York Giants over Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 1 pm FOX) Both teams are coming off a bye week and I just do not see the Giants getting blown out in this game. New York has owned this match-up beating Los Angeles 7 straight times (7-0 ATS) with a 13-point average margin of victory. The Rams are a nondivisional road favorite for just the third time in 10 years. I believe the Rams are playing a little over their heads now and this will be their second cross country flight in three weeks (London Game two weeks ago). The Rams are 2-10 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games against NFC teams. The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning road record.
|10-29-17||Bears v. Saints -9||Top||12-20||Loss||-105||118 h 23 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #254 Take New Orleans Saints over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Bears victory last week was fool’s gold and they are not a good team. Furthermore, their offense is terrible, and they will not be able to keep pace this week against New Orleans. The Saints did not even play well last week on the road and still won by 9 points against a team that already pounded the Bears. New Orleans defense is for real and when you pair that with QB Brees this is a team that can make some noise in the playoffs. The Saints have won four straight games via blowout and should have no problem winning this game against a rookie quarterback by double digits. QB Mitchell Trubisky has not done anything to make we believe he can win games on his own, as he is just completing 50% of his passes. If the Saints do not beat themselves, they will win this game going away.
|10-22-17||Saints v. Packers +6||Top||26-17||Loss||-115||118 h 6 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #466 Take Green Bay Packers over New Orleans Saints (Sunday 1 pm FOX) QB Rodgers will not be playing in this game but I feel that the spread has been over adjusted. Green Bay would have been around this much of a favorite if they had their No. 1 quarterback. Having a week to prepare Brett Hundley and playing at home will benefit this team and I see this as a field goal game. I believe New Orleans is playing a bit over their heads especially on defense and I expect them to revert back to the norm in this game. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
|10-15-17||Bucs v. Cardinals +2.5||Top||33-38||Win||100||121 h 13 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #268 Take Arizona Cardinals over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) We have been very successful all season long picking teams that looked bad the previous week and we will again use that format. Arizona did not come to play last week at Philadelphia but they still have some talent on both sides of the football. Arizona blasted Tampa Bay last season by a score of 40-7 and this is a game they need in the worst way to keep their slim chances of a playoff spot alive. Arizona has yet to cover a spread this season but I feel the odds makers have over adjusted the spread in this game. Arizona should be favored since and homefield will give them a big edge in this game.
|10-08-17||Ravens +2.5 v. Raiders||Top||30-17||Win||100||121 h 17 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #469 Take Baltimore Ravens over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) The Raiders have never been a team that seems to handle prosperity well and become a consistent playoff team. They have looked terrible on offense the last two weeks and now must play a game without their QB Derek Carr. Baltimore looked terrible last week as well against Pittsburgh but should be able to move the football better against this Oakland defense. The Raiders are never a good play as a home favorite going 11-25 in their last 36 occurrences. This was a one-point game last year with Oakland winning and I just cannot see Oakland blowing them out with E.J. Manuel behind center. Baltimore cannot play as bad on offense as they did last week, can they?
|10-01-17||Raiders v. Broncos -2.5||Top||10-16||Win||100||123 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #276 Take Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) Oakland was exposed last week and I do not believe they will challenge to be the top team in the AFC. Now they are playing on the road for a second straight week against a divisional rival. Denver has won 8 of the last 10 games against Oakland. Denver has a bye on deck and the favorite has covered 8 of the last 9 games. Denver has a much better defense than does Oakland and playing in the Mile-High air should give QB Siemian some confidence. Denver is always a tough team to beat early in the season, especially at home and they get the job done against on Sunday afternoon.
|09-24-17||Dolphins v. Jets +6||Top||6-20||Win||100||96 h 30 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #468 Take New York Jets over Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1 pm CBS) Jay Cutler is not David Carr and I just do not believe he will be able to pick apart the Jets like the Raiders did last week. Miami was lucky to get a win last week in San Diego needing a missed field goal as time was expiring. I usually believe that teams bounce back after getting embarrassed the week before in the NFL and expect that to be the case here. This is a tough travel situation for Miami, coming back from San Diego and they have to go to London next week. Miami is 1-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 games played during Week 3.
|09-17-17||Cowboys v. Broncos +2||Top||17-42||Win||100||122 h 30 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #284 Take Denver Broncos over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 4:24 pm FOX) Both teams are coming off home wins but we will ride the Broncos again to a hot start this year like what they did last year. New York looked lost without OBJ last week and Dallas will have a much tougher time containing the Broncos this week. Denver is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Denver is 7-0 in their past 7 home games during the first two weeks of the season. Denver has the better defense and we saw last week home far ahead the defenses are compared to the offenses in most cases. Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.
Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports
|09-10-17||Seahawks v. Packers -3||Top||9-17||Win||100||93 h 1 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #474 Take Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) These teams seem to meet every year with the home team dominating this series (5-0 ATS last five games). The Hawks lost in Green Bay by 28 points last season and by 10 points in 2015. Green Bay is 8-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 home openers. The Packers have the better offense and QB Rodgers has enough weapons to attack this strong Hawks defense in a variety of ways. Seattle is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of September.
|02-05-17||Patriots -3 v. Falcons||Top||34-28||Win||100||124 h 20 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #101 Take New England Patriots over Atlanta Falcons (Super Bowl 51, Sunday, 6:30 pm FOX) Just cannot bet my hard-earned money against Brady and Belichick. The Patriots are the more complete team on both sides of the football and will have two weeks before kickoff to devise a plan to slow down this high-powered Atlanta offense. If New England can jump on to a lead early I see them winning this game by double digits as Atlanta has not faced that much over the last couple of months. The Falcons still have a very shaky defense and if New England is balanced that will not allow their front four to just tee off on the quarterback. The current Patriots have won four of their six Super Bowls and Belichick and Brady have won 24 playoff games together. The Patriots have the No. 1 ranked defense and the defense has the advantage when playing the No. 1 offense in the Super Bowl winning five of the last six meetings. Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 playoff games (0-6 ATS prior to this year). New England has covered the spread in five straight games against teams with a winning record.
|01-14-17||Texans +16 v. Patriots||Top||16-34||Loss||-100||98 h 33 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #303 Take Houston Texans over New England Patriots (Saturday 8:15 pm CBS) NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR. The Texans are a huge underdog in this game despite having one of the best defenses in the league. New England is solid to good on both sides of the football but I just feel Houston is due to put forth a good performance against New England. The Texans have a lot of coaches with New England ties and they were gutless in the meeting against the Patriots this year. Only twice in their last thirteen postseason games have the Patriots won a game by more than 13 points. Houston has enough talent to hang around and I just do not see a 20+ point victory in this game. New England is 11-1 ATS since the return of Tom Brady and sooner or later the law of averages will have to even out. The same thing happened with Temple covering 12 straight games before losing outright to Wake Forest in the Military Bowl. I am not predicting a straight-up win for the Texans but I feel they can keep this game closer than the posted number.
|01-01-17||Packers -3.5 v. Lions||Top||31-24||Win||105||127 h 31 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #309 Take Green Bay Packers over Detroit Lions (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) Nobody will be giving the Lions a chance to win this game and we will be in that boat as well. Detroit has not performed well in two consecutive games and now likely face a winner take all on Sunday Night Football. The Lions have not win a division title since 1993 and they have never made it to the Super Bowl in their franchises existence. Green Bay has beaten Detroit 20 of the last 25 meetings and they are just functioning much better now. Detroit got picked apart by the Dallas passing attack on Monday night and I just do not expect their corners to be able to slow down the Packer wide receivers. Aaron Rodgers is now able to use his feet and that makes him the best dual threat quarterback in the league. Green Bay has won five straight games and Clay Matthews is playing at a high level making this one of the better defensive teams in the league. Detroit is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 divisional games. Green Bay is 23-11 ATS in their last 34 divisional games.
|12-25-16||Broncos +3.5 v. Chiefs||Top||10-33||Loss||-112||121 h 42 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #129 Take Denver Broncos over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) These two teams fought to the death in their first match-up of the season in a game that nearly ended in a tie. Denver has been left for dead on the year but they still have a chance to get to 10 wins on the season and have a chance for a wild card. Kansas City has lost two of their last three home games and were held scoreless in the second half in the other game barely holding off Oakland. Denver blew an 8-point lead with under 20 seconds to play in the first meeting and their defense is still Super Bowl caliber. Denver is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss in their previous game. Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. The hook may come into play as this will be another hard fought AFC West game.
|12-24-16||Vikings v. Packers -6.5||Top||25-38||Win||100||89 h 10 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #112 Take Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings (Saturday 1 pm FOX) The Packers got back doored last week against Chicago blowing a 17-point lead and costing us our top play winning streak. But we will use them again on Saturday against a worse offensive team that Chicago. Green Bay needs to win out to have a chance to reach the playoffs and they have revenge on their minds in this game as well. Minnesota opened their new stadium with a victory over Green Bay earlier this year but that was a completely different Viking team than what we will see today. Green Bay has covered the spread in 22 of their last 33 divisional games. Minnesota has lost 7 of their last 9 games.
|12-11-16||Seahawks v. Packers +3||Top||10-38||Win||100||122 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #128 Take Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) When two good teams met late in the season I generally side with the team that needs it more. At 6-6 the Packers definitely need this game more and they have beaten Seattle six straight times in Green Bay (average margin of victory 16 points per game). I truly believe the wrong team is favored considering Seattle laid an egg in their last road game at Tampa Bay. Seattle pounded Carolina last week but lost Earl Thomas in the process and that will come back to bite them in this game. Green Bay beat Seattle by double digits last season and their defense is finally starting to show signs of life. Seattle still has a terrible offensive line and Green Bay will get to QB Russell Wilson a few times in this game. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of December.
|12-04-16||Texans v. Packers -6.5||Top||13-21||Win||100||116 h 22 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #356 Take Green Bay Packers over Houston Texans (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Packer defense showed some signs off life last week against Philadelphia and now they face a much easier challenge this week against Houston. The Texans have struggled on the road being outscored by an average of 14 points per game (27-13). Green Bay still has a path to the playoffs by winning the division and for them to accomplish that this is a must win game. QB Rodgers picked apart the strong Philadelphia defense last Monday and Houston has been playing without JJ Watt for the entire season leaving a major void in the front seven. This is the first home game for Green Bay since November 6th and it now appears that this season is not lost for them. The Packers just have a major edge at the quarterback position with Rodgers compared to Brock Osweiler, who has struggled mightily this season. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in December. Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
|11-27-16||Titans -5 v. Bears||Top||27-21||Win||100||116 h 18 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #254 Take Tennessee Titans over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Bears have been decimated by injuries this season and this is likely the last month and a half for QB Jay Cutler and HC John Fox. Tennessee did not play well last week in Indianapolis (place they never win) but should find it much easier to put points on the board in Chicago on Sunday. Chicago is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games and they are just playing out the string hoping against hope they can keep their remaining players healthy. Tennessee is scoring over 31 points per game in their last seven games and Chicago will have trouble keeping up with them. Chicago is 3-11 ATS when playing a home game following a loss in their previous game. The Bears did not score a point in the last 30 minutes at MetLife Stadium and I do not see things getting any better today. The crowd will not be engaged early and I just do not see the Bears giving them a reason to cheer.
|11-20-16||Eagles +6.5 v. Seahawks||Top||15-26||Loss||-105||123 h 4 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #471 Take Philadelphia Eagles over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) Seattle looked impressive last week against New England but that cross-country flight home from a Sunday night game will take its toll on them for this game. Their offensive line is still weak and they will face a much better defense today than they saw from the Patriots last week. Look for the defenses of both teams to dominate this game and that puts us in a good shape as we are getting close to a touchdown. The Seahawks have not been the same dominating team at home this year, as they have had close games against Atlanta, Buffalo, and Miami. Philadelphia is better than two of those teams and they have a quarterback that should be getting better with more experience. Seattle is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against NFC teams.
|11-13-16||49ers v. Cardinals -13||Top||20-23||Loss||-115||122 h 7 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #270 Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) We have gone against the 49ers in their last two games and look to complete the trifecta on Sunday. San Francisco is getting destroyed by teams in the second half and their lack of talent and time of possession is catching up with them. San Francisco cannot stop the run and they are allowing 37.1 points per game over their last seven games. Arizona already won at San Francisco this year by double digits with a backup quarterback. Things should go even smoother today for what is a must win game for Arizona if they have visions of making the playoffs. Arizona has won three straight games in this series by an average of 19 points per game. San Francisco is 3-9 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games against NFC West teams. Arizona is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a losing record.
|11-06-16||Broncos +1 v. Raiders||Top||20-30||Loss||-110||128 h 14 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #471 Take Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) It has been a while since the Raiders have gotten on NBC and I fully expect them to fall flat on their face in this game. Oakland has already lost two road games this season and they have yet to cover the spread in any home game this season. They have the better quarterback in this game but penalties are always a major concern with this team. I still believe the league and the officials are out to get this team because of Al Davis and they look to throw flags against them on every play. Tampa Bay had every opportunity to win last week against Oakland yet could not take advantage of the situation. That will not happen with Denver one of the better coached teams in the league. Oakland ranks at the bottom of the league in both pass & run defense. The Raiders have played a very easily schedule thus far as the AFC South and NFC South are not all that good. Oakland is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 divisional games. Denver is 8-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games overall.
|10-30-16||Patriots -6.5 v. Bills||Top||41-25||Win||100||120 h 52 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #259 Take New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 pm CBS) This is a revenge game for the Patriots as they lost to Buffalo earlier this season without QB Tom Brady. New England is 3-0 since the return of Tom Brady and they have won all three games by double digits. Now Buffalo is banged up with RB LeSean McCoy have been injured in the last two games. With Robert Woods also banged up (did not play last week) I just do not believe Tyrod Taylor can win this game on his own without any weapons. New England has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games.
|10-23-16||Vikings -2.5 v. Eagles||Top||10-21||Loss||-109||120 h 44 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #453 Take Minnesota Vikings over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Eagles are in freefall at the moment having lost two straight games to mediocre teams (Detroit & Washington) and now must face the best defense in the league. QB Carson Wentz is starting to get found out and one must remember that he is still a rookie and set the bar so high during the first three weeks of the season. Philadelphia did not score an offensive touchdown last week and their vaunted defense is starting to show some cracks giving up 231 rushing yards last week at Washington. The Eagles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
|10-09-16||Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders||Top||31-34||Win||100||71 h 50 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #469 Take San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) NFL GAME OF THE MONTH.The Chargers get up for this game and have covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings (won both meetings last year). The Chargers are playing good football; they are just blowing leads in the fourth quarter. Oakland has never handled being the favorite well, going 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when they are favored at the Coliseum. Taking these stats even further, the underdog in this series has covered the spread in 13 of the last 14 games. The Chargers could easily be 4-0 on the season, and I see this game going down to the wire as well. San Diego is scoring over 30 points per game, and Oakland is in the bottom three in yards allowed (rushing and passing). The stats all favor the Chargers, and expect them to protect the football and win this game straight-up.
|09-25-16||Ravens v. Jaguars +1||Top||19-17||Loss||-102||90 h 58 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #468 Take Jacksonville Jaguars over Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 1 pm CBS) AFC GAME OF THE YEAR. The line on this game tells me a great deal. The Jaguars have been a doormat for most of their existence and are 0-2 facing a 2-0 team. Yet this is a pick’em game and all of the public will be lining up to put down their money on Baltimore. That being said Baltimore was outplayed by Cleveland last week and going on the road for a second consecutive week will be too much for them to overcome. If Baltimore holds as a favorite once must consider the stat of 2-10 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 14 games as a favorite. Jacksonville is desperate for a win here as many experts believe that this is a talented enough roster to challenge for a playoff spot in the AFC this season. Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games following a game in which they scored less than 15 points. This is not a sexy pick but like Los Angeles last week it is one that should grab the money.
|09-11-16||Raiders v. Saints -1||Top||35-34||Loss||-113||94 h 22 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #462 Take New Orleans Saints over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We went against the Raiders are our top selection in the preseason and will do so yet again in Week 1 of the Regular Season. Just feel this team is vastly overrated and people are forgetting how poorly they closed out the 2015 Regular Season. Although the Saints have not been as dominating in New Orleans the last couple of years compared to 2011-2013, it is still an extremely difficult place to play and something the Raiders have not done so in 8 years. It is always tough for a west coast team to play an early Sunday game and Oakland is just 1-18 straight-up when the game starts at 1 pm eastern time. Oakland is equally as bad on the road in general winning just 6 of their last 32 road games. Drew Brees is still the best player on the field and he has covered the spread against Oakland seven straight games. New Orleans covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games in 2016.
|01-24-16||Patriots -3 v. Broncos||Top||18-20||Loss||-104||98 h 37 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #311 Take New England Patriots over Denver Broncos (Sunday 3 pm CBS) The Patriots are favored on the road for a reason and we fully expect them to take care of business in Denver on Sunday. Denver came back to beat New England in the regular season but most felt that the Patriots got a bad whistle in that game. Denver has a good defense but I am just not sure their offense can make enough plays to win especially in the passing game. People are giving QB Peyton Manning to much credit for winning these last two games against depleted teams. Pittsburgh had a terrible secondary and Denver still did not do much in the passing game. The Patriots laid down during the last few games of the regular season in order to get healthy and we saw the fruits of that decision last week against Kansas City. I believe the Chiefs are a better team at the moment than the Broncos (won in Denver this year) and New England handled them with relative ease. Denver has scored just 1 touchdown in their last 27 drives during the playoffs. Denver is 1-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 playoff games.
|01-17-16||Seahawks v. Panthers -2.5||Top||24-31||Win||100||96 h 34 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #306 Take Carolina Panthers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 1:05 pm FOX) NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR. I am just not putting all of Seattle’s offensive struggles on the cold weather last week. They played outstanding against Arizona in Week 17 but the two games in the last three weeks they played terrible. Carolina was a perfect 8-0 at home this season (6-2 ATS) and they have the better offensive team on the field. The Panthers were 4-0 against teams with a winning record (4-0 ATS) and Seattle was just 3-4 ATS (1 push) against teams with a winning record. This is a game Carolina and especially their coach and quarterback need to justify their place as one of the top teams in the league. They get it by 7-10 points and we collect big in the process as well.
|01-10-16||Packers v. Redskins +1||Top||35-18||Loss||-104||97 h 51 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #108 Take Washington Redskins over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 4:40 pm FOX) The Packers have been in a downward spiral for the last part of this season and I just do not believe that they can put it together on Sunday. By now we all know the problems that this team faces and Washington is at home and riding high after finishing strong to close out the regular season and win the NFC East. The gameplan to beat the Packers has been simple, keep your men close to the line of scrimmage as the Packers are struggling to go over the top. Washington moves onto the second round and we collect in the process as well. Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Washington is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
|01-09-16||Steelers -2.5 v. Bengals||Top||18-16||Loss||-105||77 h 38 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #105 Take Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals (Saturday 8:15 pm CBS) Both teams have key players on offense that are questionable but regardless I see the Steelers rolling in this game. Pittsburgh has won 13 of their last 15 games in Cincinnati and expect that to hold true again on Saturday. Cincinnati has had no playoff success under Marvin Lewis and if things to do go their way early expect the sideline to become tight and panic will set it. Big Ben put up monster numbers this season passing the football and Pittsburgh just beat Cincinnati a few weeks ago. Pittsburgh is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.
|01-03-16||Raiders +7.5 v. Chiefs||Top||17-23||Win||100||124 h 52 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #315 Take Oakland Raiders over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) I believe a little wind was taken out the Chiefs sails when Cincinnati blew a big lead against Denver on Monday Night Football. Now they face a divisional team with some injuries on defense playing a team with extra rest (Oakland played on Thursday last week). The Raiders have a chance to finish the season 8-8 and they have a winning record on the road. In the first game, Oakland was in control before turnovers proved costly in the fourth quarter. This is the final game of Charles Woodson’s career and I believe Oakland takes this game down to the wire. Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
|11-29-15||Giants -2.5 v. Redskins||Top||14-20||Loss||-115||96 h 59 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #259 Take New York Giants over Washington Redskins (Sunday 1 pm FOX) I feel the Giants are the best team in the NFC East and expect a big effort from them coming off of their bye week. Washington looked terrible last week against Carolina with just 10 first downs and 185 yards of offense. The Redskins defense is coming apart, giving up a ton of points of late. New York has beaten Washington five straight times (5-0 ATS), including a double-digit victory in Week 3 this season. I just trust Eli Manning more than I do Kirk Cousins and expect a big performance from the Giants in this contest. New York is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 road games.
|11-22-15||Chiefs -2.5 v. Chargers||Top||33-3||Win||100||122 h 39 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #473 Take Kansas City Chiefs over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 1:05 pm CBS) Thankfully this game got flexed out of Sunday Night Football, as the Chargers are certainly a team nobody wants to watch. Kansas City still has talent and they are starting to put it together having won three straight games including a dominating victory at Denver last week. The Chargers have just beaten Detroit and Cleveland this year and their home field advantage is nonexistent with the rumors that they are moving to Los Angeles next year. Kansas City beat San Diego both times in 2014 and the Chargers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 years coming off a bye. San Diego has an uninspiring coach who will likely be replaced next year and they are just playing out the string.
|11-15-15||Cowboys v. Bucs -1||Top||6-10||Win||100||120 h 32 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #253 Take Dallas Cowboys over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We went against Tampa Bay numerous times this season including last week against another NFC East foe. Dallas is not going to make the playoffs this season but they have shown some improvement under Matt Cassel and are getting healthy at other spots besides quarterback. The Cowboys have covered 8 of their last 11 road games. QB Jameis Winston is just not ready to win consistently in the league and Tampa Bay is just 1-3 at Raymond James Stadium this season. This will not be a pretty game to watch but getting points with the better team is too good to pass up.
|11-08-15||Giants -2.5 v. Bucs||Top||32-18||Win||100||97 h 29 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #467 Take New York Giants over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) The Giants have been an up and down team this year but we expect them to bounce back in a big way on Sunday. New York scored 49 points last week in New Orleans yet lost the game but I just do not believe the Buccaneers have the same offensive firepower that New Orleans does. With the Patriots on deck this is a game that the Giants need to get to keep their hopes of winning the NFC East alive. Tampa Bay has lost 11 of their last 12 home games and covered the spread in just three of those games. New York is 4-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 road games. Tampa Bay is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS victory in their previous game.
|11-01-15||Jets -1.5 v. Raiders||Top||20-34||Loss||-110||122 h 35 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #269 Take New York Jets over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) Everything in the world went right for three quarters last week for the Oakland Raiders in San Diego. But I always believe that there is not any carryover in the NFL from week to week and expect a much different outcome in this game. Unlike the Chargers, the Jets have a defense and a strong running attack. New York gave the Patriots all that they could handle for 60 minutes and feel just short when they could not get off the field on a couple of key third downs. This line opened as a pick but now the early money is coming on the Jets for good reason. Oakland has already lost two home games this season and this will be the best defense that they have faced all season. The Jets have covered 7 of their last 9 games (1 push). New York has beaten Oakland each of the last two years by an average margin of victory of 7.5. New York is 4-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 road games. Oakland has never handled prosperity well going 3-12 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 games following a victory in their previous game.
|11-01-15||Cardinals -4.5 v. Browns||Top||34-20||Win||100||119 h 31 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #256 Take Arizona Cardinals over Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Red Birds got backdoored on Monday Night Football last week settling for field goals and missing an extra point in the second half. That was a brutal beat for us but in a way it sets up this play. Arizona is loaded with talent on both sides of the football and they play an aggressive style of defense that will give the Browns fits for sixty minutes. The Browns will play better than they did against St. Louis but they have quarterback issues with Josh McCown questionable for this game and Johnny Manziel having some off the field issues. Cleveland is just 2-5 on the season and they have not played that great of a schedule as they have yet to play the Bengals or Steelers this season (two games left with each). Arizona is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a pointspread loss in their previous game. Arizona is also 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing home record. Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of November.
|10-25-15||Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Tennessee Titans||Top||10-7||Loss||-110||94 h 36 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #463 Take Atlanta Falcons over Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We went against the Titans last week and won easily with Miami and expect a similar results with a better Atlanta Falcons team. Tennessee has lost four straight games since opening the season with a victory against Tampa Bay. Of those four losses (Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami, & Indianapolis) they have suffered none of those teams have an explosive offense like Atlanta does. The Falcons were their own worst enemy last Thursday against New Orleans and I fully expect them to clean that up in this game. The Titans also have quarterback issues with Marcus Mariota questionable for this game. Not a huge drop-off to their back-up but it is a drop-off nonetheless. Atlanta has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games. Tennessee is 7-20 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 29 home games.
|10-18-15||Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Buffalo Bills||Top||34-21||Win||100||118 h 27 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #253 Take Cincinnati Bengals over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 pm CBS) This line has swung three points since it opened as a pick’em and it is apparent that the Bills are overvalued this season despite their talkative head coach. The Bills have already lost two home games this season and they are not ready to be among the elite of the AFC with Tyrod Taylor as quarterback. The Bengals are still a great team in the regular season and Andy Dalton is having a breakout season. He has numerous weapons to work with and should give the Bills defense all that they can handle. Cincinnati has covered 4 straight games against AFC teams. Buffalo is 7-20 ATS (1 push) in their last 28 games following a win in their previous game.
|10-11-15||Chicago Bears v. Kansas City Chiefs -9||Top||18-17||Loss||-110||118 h 39 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #460 Take Kansas City Chiefs over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm FOX) TOP NFL GAME OF THE WEEK. The Chiefs need a win in the worst way and we fully expect them to take out their frustration on Chicago this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. The Chiefs went 6-2 at home last season and outscored their opponents by 17 points per game during those six victories. The difference in this game will come down to the Chiefs defense, as they are still a dominating unit (despite the ranking) and should have no problem hitting the quarterback early and often. The Bears are not on the same level as Green Bay and Cincinnati and thus has double digit home victory written all over it. Chicago knows this is a rebuilding year and I just do not see them being able to win two games in a row. Chicago’s three losses have come by an average of 19.6 points and that will easily get us a cover with the favorite in this game. Chicago is 13-27 ATS (1 push) in their last 41 games. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record.
|10-04-15||Green Bay Packers v. San Francisco 49ers +9.5||Top||17-3||Loss||-120||123 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #270 Take San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) I always like to play home underdogs of seven or more points and I fully expect a much better effort by the 49ers today in Santa Clara. San Francisco has looked terrible in back to back road games but I am a big believer in that there is not much carryover from week to week in the NFL and every week is completely different. Green Bay is not the same team on the road as they are when playing at Lambeau Field and sooner or later their injuries will catch up with them. Green Bay will head west on a short week and this is a team they have not had any success against in the last 5 years. San Francisco is 3-0 ATS in the last six years when they have been a home underdog. QB Colin Kaepernick has been awful of late but Green Bay is a team he has had great success against and I expect him to be able to move the football with his arm or his legs. Green Bay still does not have a good defense and if the 49ers can hang onto the football I see this game going down to the wire. Green Bay has not won in San Francisco (Santa Clara) since 2006 and while that streak may end on Sunday, it will only come by a couple of points.
|09-27-15||Atlanta Falcons v. Dallas Cowboys +2||Top||39-28||Loss||-105||89 h 23 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #480 Take Dallas Cowboys over Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1 pm FOX) This is a surprise match-up of 2-0 teams with nobody expecting the Falcons to be any good this season. The Falcons will be playing their second straight road games and that generally catches up with teams in the NFL. Expect Dallas to rise to the occasion with all of their injuries in the short term and I just do not believe the Falcons are ready to become an elite team in the NFL again. Dallas still has a dominating offense line and that will be the difference in this contest.
|09-20-15||Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers -3||Top||17-27||Win||100||147 h 49 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #288 Take Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) We went against Seattle last week with St. Louis and will do the same this Sunday against the Packers. Seattle has a brutal schedule to open up the season with a pair of road games against teams that are motivated to beat them. Green Bay has waited a couple of years to host Seattle and you can expect revenge to be best served on the field. Green Bay dominated Seattle last year in the NFC Championship only to fall apart in the fourth quarter and be sent home a week before the big game. Seattle allowed Nick Foles to move the football on their defense and we only in that game because the Rams turned over the football. I just do not see Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers making that many mistakes. This is a game the fans of the Packers want in the worst way and they will pull away in the second half to win this game by double digits.
|09-13-15||Tennessee Titans +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Top||42-14||Win||100||99 h 26 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #481 Take Tennessee Titans over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) This is one of the marquee match-up of Week 1 despite two terrible teams doing battle. At this point of the season I trust Marcus Mariota more than I do Jameis Winston. The Titans have won their last two road openers the last two years beating Pittsburgh and Kansas City, two better teams than they will see today against Tampa Bay. Expect Dick LeBeau to improve the Titans defense just enough to frustrate the new quarterback and allow Tennessee to win this game straight-up.
|02-01-15||Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots||Top||24-28||Win||100||142 h 25 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #101 Take New England Patriots over Seattle Seahawks (Super Bowl 49, Sunday, 6:30 pm NBC) You can make a strong case for either side in this match-up and the line on this game is reflected in that. But it is almost impossible for teams to repeat in the NFL in this day and age and I do not see the Seahawks as the team that can break this trend. Seattle has a great defense when all parts of it are 100% but that will not be the case in this game as multiple plays are banged up for Seattle. New England is not Denver and I just do not see them laying down and not been physical in their own right. Denver had a soft coach and QB but New England has a 3-time Super Bowl Champion coach and quarterback and this is one that they want badly in order to prove their critics wrong. Seattle has been starting slow of late and Russell Wilson is coming off one of his worst games in his three year career against Green Bay two weeks ago. Once the Patriots smell blood they will go for the kill and not play conservatively like the Packers did against Seattle in the NFC Championship Game. New England is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.
|01-04-15||Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -3||Top||10-26||Win||100||119 h 39 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #108 Take Indianapolis Colts over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Bengals have not had any success in the playoffs under the tenure of Marvin Lewis. The Bengals have lost in this round the last three years and this will be their third road games in the last four weeks. Indianapolis dominated this regular season match-up winning 27-0 as a 3.5 favorite similar to what we see in this game. WR AJ Green got hurt and lost the game last week against Pittsburgh and I just do not believe that the Bengals have much left in the tank. QB Andy Dalton has a 1-6 touchdown to interception ratio in the playoffs. The Colts win and march onto Denver for another rematch with Peyton Manning. Indianapolis is 20-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 home games.
|12-28-14||Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Giants -2.5||Top||34-26||Loss||-130||70 h 10 m||Show|
I think that the New York Giants have all the motivation here. The players seem to love Tom Coughlin, and they may be fighting for his job here. We think they go all out to win this one and win it big against a team that has been overhyped all season and is playing some of its worst football here down the stretch. The Giants have won three straight and covered in all those games. The Eagles have lost their last three without a single cover. With the extra motivation for playing for their coach and the absolute lack of motivation we have seen from the Eagles here down the stretch we think this line should be over the key NFL number of three and that the Giants are the clear play here.
|12-20-14||Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +10||Top||24-27||Win||100||97 h 2 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #106 Take Washington Redskins over Philadelphia Eagles (Saturday 4:30 pm NFL Network) The Redskins actually showed some heart last week against the Giants and a tough break right before halftime did them in and ejected some key players. Expect RG3 to be under center for this game and he moved the football well last week and should be able to put up some points and yardage in this game as well. Philadelphia is in a major letdown situation coming off their debacle last week at home against Dallas. Turnovers did them in and expect them to put the ball on the ground a few times in this game as well. Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a losing record at home.
|12-14-14||Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles||Top||38-27||Win||100||126 h 60 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #331 Take Dallas Cowboys over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) This is a must win game for the Cowboys if they have any visions of winning the NFC East and I believe they will put forth a good effort coming off a mini bye since they played last Thursday. Dallas has played much better on the road this season going 6-0 and the visitor has been the play in this series covering the spread in 6 of their last 7 meetings. I am still not a big believer in Mark Sanchez and the Seahawks provided a blueprint last Sunday as to how to shut him down. Philadelphia is 5-14 ATS (1 push) in their last 20 games against teams with a winning record.
|12-07-14||Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 v. Arizona Cardinals||Top||14-17||Loss||-107||122 h 19 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #171 Take Kansas City Chiefs over Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) The Cardinals are in complete freefall at the moment with no landing spot in sight. QB Drew Stanton has played terrible the last two weeks and now they are in jeopardy of evening winning the NFC West. Kansas City is coming off back to back losses against AFC West teams (Denver & Oakland) and now face a must win game against Arizona. Kansas City has covered 11 of their last 14 regular season road games and I feel that they win this game convincingly. Arizona keeps losing players to injury and that has taken its toll on this team. Alex Smith has a 7-1 touchdown to interception ratio in 2014 road games. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.
|11-30-14||New England Patriots v. Green Bay Packers -3||Top||21-26||Win||100||122 h 6 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #472 Take Green Bay Packers over New England Patriots (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) Many believe that this will be a Super Bowl preview as the Patriots and Packers are playing outstanding football of late. That being said we will side with the Packers as the Patriots are in a prime spot for a letdown. New England dominated a suspect Detroit team last week at home. The Lions were not able to move the football much on offense but Green Bay is a much more explosive team on offense than is Detroit. New England has not face a team like this since Denver, as Green Bay has the ability to beat you through the air or on the ground with Eddie Lacy. The Packers defense is getting better especially since they moved Clay Mathews to inside linebacker and they will be able to get pressure on Tom Brady. New England is just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. Green Bay is 5-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 home games. Lay the small change with Green Bay in this one.
|11-23-14||Detroit Lions v. New England Patriots -7||Top||9-34||Win||100||95 h 10 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #256 Take New England Patriots over Detroit Lions (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Patriots are the best team in the AFC at the moment having won six straight games including blowouts the last three weeks. Two of those blowouts came against Denver and Indianapolis, teams that are better than Detroit. The Lions have been winning close a lot of late but that came to an end last week in Arizona when their offense did not do much of anything. That came against a back-up quarterback in Drew Stanton and now they must face one of the all-time greats in Tom Brady. The Patriots are getting it down on both sides of the football and Detroit has given up 31 sacks this season. New England is 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS when playing at home coming off a Sunday Night game. Week 12 has not been kind to Detroit going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Week 12 games. New England has covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 home games.
|11-16-14||Seattle Seahawks v. Kansas City Chiefs||Top||20-24||Win||100||93 h 11 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #458 Take Kansas City Chiefs over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 1 pm FOX) Kansas City is playing outstanding football of late, having won 4 straight games, and they are getting it done on both sides of the football. Seattle is finding life as a defending champion much more difficult, and they are getting team’s best effort this season. Seattle has only covered one time this season on the road, and that came against Washington, who still moved the football on them. It will be important for Kansas City to stop the read option, especially when the quarterback keeps it. Seattle is not great at throwing the football, especially when teams know they have to throw it. Kansas City has covered the spread all 4 games during this winning streak. Seattle has covered the spread just 1 time in their last 5 games.
|11-02-14||St. Louis Rams v. San Francisco 49ers -10||Top||13-10||Loss||-100||122 h 14 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #466 Take San Francisco 49ers over St. Louis Rams (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) The Rams are hanging by a thread at the moment and their injuries are starting to catch up to them. These two teams met on 10/13 and the Rams jumped out to a 14 point lead and they still lost by 14 points. The 49ers have won three straight games against the Rams in the Bay Area (3-0 ATS as well). The 49ers are starting to get healthy on defense and this is a game they must win in order to make the playoffs this year in a tough division. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record.
|10-26-14||Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints||Top||23-44||Win||100||126 h 20 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #276 Take New Orleans Saints over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) Still not ready to right off the Saints this season especially playing a night game at the Superdome. New Orleans is 2-4 this season but 2-0 at home and as we all know this is a completely different team when playing at home. Green Bay is on a roll right now winning four straight games but all of them came against teams that will likely not be making the playoffs this season (Carolina still could win the AFC South). This is a must win game for New Orleans in order to save their season and I believe that they will come out hunger and ready to make a statement. New Orleans had Detroit beat last week (a team that beat Green Bay) before collapsing in the final 5 minutes of the fourth quarter. Tonight they take out their frustration on the Packers. New Orleans has won 10 straight home games (8-2 ATS) winning these games by an average of 16.4 points per game.
|10-19-14||Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 v. San Diego Chargers||Top||23-20||Win||100||95 h 0 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #469 Take Kansas City Chiefs over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) NFL Game of the Year. The Chargers just keep winning and are now one of the best teams in the league. That being said, this team is really banged up, and because of this all of the pressure falls on QB Phillip Rivers and his wide receivers. San Diego has no success running the football against Oakland until their final drive of the game, and I do not see things getting better this week against Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, and Andy Reid has been outstanding in this spot, winning 13 of his 15 games following a bye. Much like the Oakland game this week, divisional games tend to come down to the wire, and I just do not see San Diego blowing out KC. QB Rivers will have his moments in this game and put up some passing yards, but I expect the Chiefs to match them score for score. Kansas City if 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. San Diego is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played during October. Take the points in this one.
|10-12-14||San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +8||Top||31-28||Win||100||97 h 47 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #270 Take Oakland Raiders over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) If the Raiders are ever going to put forth an effort during the 2014 season it will come this week. Oakland made a coaching change during their bye week and I expect them to play better under new coach Tony Sparano. San Diego has not played well against Oakland in recent years going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings. The Chargers will also be looking ahead as they have Kansas City and Denver on deck. Oakland is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played during October.
|10-05-14||Cincinnati Bengals v. New England Patriots +1.5||Top||17-43||Win||100||103 h 34 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #476 Take New England Patriots over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) New England could not have played any worse last week in Kansas City and because of that they enter this game as an underdog at home for just the second time in close to a decade. Cincinnati could very well be the best team in the AFC but they have never handled prosperity all that well in recent years. Much like Tampa Bay winning for us last week, all of these players are professionals and pride is on the line when they are coming off an embarrassing game. The Patriots need this game and they get it at Foxborough.
|09-28-14||Jacksonville Jaguars +14 v. San Diego Chargers||Top||14-33||Loss||-115||95 h 55 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #265 Take Jacksonville Jaguars over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) The Chargers are off to an impressive 2-1 start this season (could easily be 3-0) but they have never seemed to handle prosperity well during this century. Jacksonville is the type of team that is heard to get up for and thus I expect the Chargers to just go through the motions and not play inspired football. San Diego is banged up a running back with Mathews and Woodhead out for this game. Jacksonville will start Blake Bortles and I expect him to bring a little life to this stagnate offense.
|09-21-14||Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints -10.5||Top||9-20||Win||100||118 h 58 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #460 Take New Orleans Saints over Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1 pm FOX) New Orleans will be a strong public play this week but that will not deter us from using them as they are desperate for a win. The Saints are 0-2 but they have yet to play in the Superdome this season and we all know they are a completely different at home. New Orleans is 17-0 straight-up and 16-1 ATS in their last 17 games that Sean Payton has coached. Minnesota showed their true colors last week against New England and playing on the road will be too much to overcome and keep this a one possession game.
|09-07-14||Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7.5||Top||24-31||Loss||-100||96 h 28 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #488 Take Denver Broncos over Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) The Broncos are a juggernaut, especially on offense and early in the season. Denver pounded Baltimore in Week 1 of the 2013 season, and I expect a similar result tonight against Manning’s former team. Remember, Indianapolis handed Denver their first loss of the season in 2013, and you can bet Denver has not forgotten it. Indianapolis is really banged up on the offensive line and getting very little from the running back position. QB Luck is outstanding, but I just do not see him being competitive in this game. Denver needed to get better on defense, and that is what happened. Indianapolis is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Week 1 games.
|01-19-14||New England Patriots +6 v. Denver Broncos||Top||16-26||Loss||-110||97 h 7 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #301 Take New England Patriots over Denver Broncos (Sunday 3 pm CBS) NFL Playoff Game of the Year. New England may be winning with smoke and mirrors, but they are nonetheless getting the job done and I just do not see them getting blown out in this game. In fact New England has not gotten blown out in any of their 4 losses this season (7 points was their biggest defeat). What America believes this game will come down to Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning and it is hard not to side with Brady in this game. Brady has beaten Manning in 2 of their 3 playoff match-ups with the only loss by Brady coming by 4 points in a game New England led for most of the 60 minutes. Denver also lost a key player on defense with Chris Harris placed on injured reserve with a knee injury. Denver will have their moments in this game but unlike San Diego last week, New England will not be tentative in their play calling and I fully expect them to put up points in all 4 quarters. Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games. I expect this to be a field goal game and thus we will collect with our ticket with whoever comes out on top and advances to the Super Bowl.
|12-08-13||Detroit Lions v. Philadelphia Eagles -2.5||Top||20-34||Win||100||95 h 16 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #144 Take Philadelphia Eagles over Detroit Lions (Sunday 1 pm Fox) A match-up of first place teams takes place today at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia has won four straight games and QB Nick Foles has established himself as one of the best passers in the league this season. Detroit has already lost road games to Arizona, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh this season and I believe that Philadelphia is better than all of those teams. Detroit is just 1-11 ATS when coming off a double digit victory in a game that they also covered the spread. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS the last 5 years during Week 14.
|12-01-13||Denver Broncos -4.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs||Top||35-28||Win||100||98 h 45 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #427 Take Denver Broncos over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) The Chiefs have been exposed the last two weeks and I have felt all season that this team has been fools
|11-24-13||Dallas Cowboys v. NY Giants -1||Top||24-21||Loss||-124||98 h 16 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #230 Take New York Giants over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) We used the Giants last week against Green Bay and will ride them again on Sunday as they have a chance to become a playoff contender with a victory today. Dallas has a much better offense than Green Bay does without Aaron Rogers; however, they are really banged up on defense. The Giants have won 4 straight games and really have yet to play a complete game this season. I think that will change on Sunday as the Giants are heading in a completely different direction than are the Cowboys. Dallas won the first meeting by 5 points in Week 1 and in that game the Giants still had a chance to win despite committing 6 turnovers. Dallas is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. New York has won and covered 4 straight games.
|11-18-13||New England Patriots v. Carolina Panthers -1||Top||20-24||Win||100||126 h 7 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #430 Take Carolina Panthers over New England Patriots (Monday 8:40 pm ESPN) The Panthers are in beast mode at the moment having won having won 5 straight games and 4 of those games have been blowouts. The fan base in Carolina will be sky high for this game since they do not get many primetime games with a national audience. Carolina is allowing just 9 points per game in Charlotte and just 249 total yards in their last 7 games. Cam Newton will have an easier time this week moving the football on offense against a suspect Patriots defense. New England is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take the home chalk on Monday night.
|11-10-13||Dallas Cowboys +7 v. New Orleans Saints||Top||17-49||Loss||-115||74 h 58 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #25/#225 Take Dallas Cowboys over New Orleans Saints (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) The Cowboys are just 5-4 on the season but they have not been blown out in any of their four losses and thus getting around a touchdown is too good to pass up in this game. New Orleans is a completely different team when they play at the Superdome but they still have major holes on defense evident by their performance last week against the Jets. The Jets have one of the worst offenses in the league and Dallas has a good run/pass option and should be able to move the football on the Saints. New Orleans can light up the scoreboard put I fully expect a shootout and a cover by the Cowboys. Dallas is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
|11-03-13||Philadelphia Eagles v. Oakland Raiders -1||Top||49-20||Loss||-123||96 h 9 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #414 Take Oakland Raiders over Philadelphia Eagles (Saturday 4 pm FOX) The Raiders are coming off a victory over another Pennsylvania team last Sunday and we fully expect them to complete this exacta on Sunday. Philadelphia is just a mess on offense at the moment with injuries to their quarterback and a complete lack of production of late. This is taking its toll on their defense, as they are on the field a ton. This game features a Rose Bowl rematch between Terrelle Pryor going up against former Oregon coach Chip Kelly. Pryor won that match-up and expect a similar result in this game as well. Philadelphia is 6-17 ATS (1 push) in their last 24 games overall. Oakland has covered 4 of their last 5 home games. A win by the Raiders gets them to the .500 mark and we fully expect that to occur.
|10-27-13||Pittsburgh Steelers v. Oakland Raiders +3||Top||18-21||Win||100||97 h 20 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #224 Take Oakland Raiders over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) The Steelers are on a winning streak after two straight wins but I expect that to end in the Bay Area this week. Oakland made the right decision by starting Terrele Pryor this season, as he is 3-1 ATS in games that he started and finished. The Pittsburgh defense is not what it once was, creating just two turnovers this season and only 6 sacks. It will be important for Oakland to protect their quarterback in this game and if they do that they can win this game straight-up. Oakland is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played during Week 8 of the NFL season. Pittsburgh is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.
|10-13-13||Detroit Lions -1 v. Cleveland Browns||Top||31-17||Win||100||115 h 49 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #209 Take Detroit Lions over Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1 pm FOX) Both teams have been hit hard by injuries to key personal; however, the Lions have much more talent than do the Cleveland Browns. Detroit played well on defense last week against Green Bay in a place where they never win. Despite that loss the Lions currently sit atop the standing in the NFC North and cannot afford a loss to the Browns if they have visions of winning the division. Cleveland has won three straight games after trading away Trent Richardson, but they suffered a quarterback injury last week and now must turn back to Brandon Weedon, a player his teammates do not have confidence in. This play reminds me a lot of the Kansas City
|10-06-13||Denver Broncos -7 v. Dallas Cowboys||Top||51-48||Loss||-105||97 h 6 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #433 Take Denver Broncos over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) The Broncos are a scoring machine at the moment and we take them this week with a number we feel is short. Dallas is coming off a bad beat against San Diego in a game that they led by 11 points only to lose the game by nine points. Now they face the best team in the league in the Denver Broncos. Dallas still is in great shape to win the NFC East and they do not really need to dig deep to win this game. Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Dallas is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. We cannot worry about the big number on the road and instead will just play the better team.
|09-29-13||New England Patriots v. Atlanta Falcons -1||Top||30-23||Loss||-123||78 h 48 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #224 Take Atlanta Falcons over New England Patriots (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) The Patriots have had the easiest schedule in the league thus far but things will get much tougher tonight playing a desperate team that cannot afford to drop to 1-3 on the season. The Falcons are always a strong play at the Georgia Dome, as they have won 34 of 41 games during the Mike Smith era. New England just does not have many healthy weapons for QB Tom Brady and their defense has been terrible for 10 years. The Tampa Bay game last week was much closer than the final score would indicate and Atlanta
|09-15-13||Denver Broncos v. NY Giants +5||Top||41-23||Loss||-110||97 h 4 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #220 Take New York Giants over Denver Broncos (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) As bad as the Giants played in Dallas with six turnovers, they still were at midfield with 2 minutes to play with a chance to win the game. Now they are at home and desperate for a victory against the high powered Broncos offense. Good team know that it is very hard to make the playoffs when starting 0-2 and thus I truly believe that the Giants need this more. The Broncos are still missing some key parts on defense and thus I like the Giants front four better than I do the Broncos front four. Expect a lot of points in this game, but the Giants will not only cover the spread, they will win straight-up. The Giants are 10-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record.
|09-09-13||Houston Texans -3.5 v. San Diego Chargers||Top||31-28||Loss||-106||105 h 33 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #481 Take Houston Texas over San Diego Chargers (10:20 pm ESPN) The Chargers have been in free fall the last couple of years and finally make a coaching change and general manager change. Much of the free fall has been on the shoulders of Phillip Rivers, as he is no longer an elite quarterback and turns the football over numerous times in a game. That does not bode well when facing JJ Watt, the best defensive player in the NFL. Houston is loaded on both sides of the football and has won three straight opening week games. The fact remains that Antonio Gates is not what he once was and that puts enormous pressure on QB Rivers to make plays with his arm. San Diego lacks a run game to slow down the front four of the Texans and I just expect them to tee off on the quarterback for 60 minutes. Houston is 20-5 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 27 games played on grass. San Diego is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Houston wins this game by double digits!
|01-13-13||Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons -1||Top||28-30||Win||100||119 h 49 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #114 Take Atlanta Falcons over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 1 pm FOX) NFL Playoff Game of the Year. Seattle was certainly on the ropes last weekend in Washington, and had RG3 stayed healthy I believe that Washington would be the team playing Atlanta and not the Seahawks. Nobody believes in Atlanta, and even the line tells you that many people expect the Seahawks to win this game. But I am not one of those people, and I feel that this is a perfect matchup for the Falcons. Seattle is making their second cross-country flight and will be without the services of Chris Clemons, who tore his ACL last week. Both of these things are devastating to this team. Atlanta is very balanced on both sides of the football, and I just do not believe that the Seahawks passing game is strong enough to threaten the Falcons secondary. Seattle is just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Atlanta is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a loss in their previous game.
Atlanta by 13
|01-06-13||Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +3||Top||24-14||Loss||-105||76 h 36 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #108 Take Washington Redskins over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:30 pm FOX) I really believe that the wrong team is favored in this game, as the Seahawks are not as strong of a team without the 12th man backing them up. Washington has won seven straight games in route to winning the NFC East and I believe that they have the more dynamic quarterback in RG3. He has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. The Seahawks are just 3-5 on the road this season and that includes losses to Miami, Detroit, Arizona, and St. Louis. Washington is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Seattle is 6-16 ATS (1 push) in their last 23 games on grass. Washington stays hot and we collect big in the process as well.
Washington by 6
|12-30-12||Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. Washington Redskins||Top||18-28||Loss||-120||104 h 31 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #45/#315 Take Dallas Cowboys over Washington Redskins (Sunday, 8:20 pm NBC) The final game of the NFL Regular Season has two traditional rivals set to battle in the nation
|12-23-12||Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers -4||Top||13-10||Loss||-101||120 h 52 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #110 Take Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1 pm CBS) Top NFL Play of the Weekend. The Bengals can clinch a playoff berth with a win in Pittsburgh and likely can win the division if they win out, but I just do not see that happening. Pittsburgh has dominated this series of late, winning and covering the spread in their last five meetings with Cincinnati. QB Ben Roethlisberger did not play down the stretch against Dallas, and, thus, the Steelers lost the game, but I expect a much better performance today playing at home. The Steelers also control their own destiny to receive a wild card if they win their last two games against Cincinnati & Cleveland. The Steelers defense has dominated QB Andy Dalton, holding him under 140 yards per game passing. Cincinnati is 4-11 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 17 games against AFC teams. Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss in their previous game. Pittsburgh bounces back in a big way and we collect in the process as well.
Pittsburgh by 13
|12-16-12||San Francisco 49ers v. New England Patriots -5.5||Top||41-34||Loss||-110||125 h 24 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #34/#330 Take New England Patriots over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 12/16, 8:25 pm NBC) Top NFL Play of the Weekend. The Patriots are coming off a dominating performance on Monday Night Football against the best team in the AFC and now are set to tackle one of the best teams in the NFC in primetime. New England is a beast when they play at home, and I expect young quarterback Colin Kaepernick to struggle mightily in this hostile environment. New England has won 7 straight games, and this team just does not lose games during the month of December. They have lost just one home game on the season, and that came with a missed field goal as time expired against Arizona in Week 2. QB Tom Brady is putting up MVP numbers with 29 touchdowns, and he will have no problem moving the football against the San Francisco defense. I feel San Francisco will struggle to score points in this game, especially if they get down early and do not create turnovers on defense. New England just does not turn over the football, as they lead the league in fewest turnovers. New England is 3-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 games following a MNF game in their previous outing. Lay the wood with the better team on Sunday Night Football!
New England by 14
|12-09-12||Baltimore Ravens v. Washington Redskins -1||Top||28-31||Win||100||119 h 38 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #24/#106 Take Washington Redskins over Baltimore Ravens
(Sunday, 12/9, 1 pm CBS) Top NFL Play of the Weekend
The Redskins are coming off a victory on Monday Night Football in a game that they had to have, and now they are firmly in the playoff hunt with a record of 6-6. RG3 continues to play outstanding and he has the ability to beat teams with his arm and his legs. Washington has won three straight games against NFC East teams, and expect them to put forth a good effort against a fellow Beltway team. Washington is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.
The Ravens are 9-3 on the season but are coming off an embarrassing loss to Pittsburgh at home without Big Ben. Baltimore should be on a two-game losing streak were it not for the ineptitude of the San Diego Chargers failing to stop a fourth-and-29. I have never been a big fan of QB Joe Flacco, and he has not played well the last two games throwing just two touchdowns and a ton of passes. The Ravens are still banged up on defense, and that does not bode well when facing a quarterback as dynamic as RG3. Baltimore is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
I truly believe that these two teams are heading in opposite directions and that the Ravens will be a quick out in the playoffs come January. RG3 stays hot and Washington wins their fourth straight game on Sunday.
Washington by 8
|12-02-12||Indianapolis Colts +5 v. Detroit Lions||Top||35-33||Win||100||120 h 14 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #39/#349 Take Indianapolis Colts over Detroit Lions
(Sunday, 12/2, 1 pm, CBS) Top NFL Play of the Weekend
The Colts just continue to get the job done especially against bad teams and getting points is too good to pass up on Sunday. Indianapolis has won 5 of their last 6 games and QB Luck is putting up solid passing numbers and should have no problem picking apart the Lions secondary. The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 December games.
The Lions keep finding ways to lose games and all of these losses have caught up to them and they will throw in the towel for their December games. Expect major changes for next season, as their coach has proven time and time again that he is incompetent evident by the fact he threw a challenge flag that negated a review last week against Houston. Detroit is a one dimensional team that cannot run the football at all and thus the Colts will focus on the passing attack. Detroit is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on field turf.
The Lions cannot get out of their own way and they only have 4 wins on the season. Only one of their four wins was a blowout and that came against Jacksonville, one of the worst teams in the league. Indianapolis continues to be undervalued by the line makers and we will ride them on Sunday for yet another top play victory in the NFL.
Indianapolis by 7
|11-25-12||Green Bay Packers v. NY Giants -2.5||Top||10-38||Win||100||124 h 58 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #144/#244 Take New York Giants over Green Bay Packers
(Sunday, 11/25, 8:25 pm NBC)
The Giants are coming off a much needed bye week and this is a very important game for them to end their November slump. I just believe that the Giants are a great pick in this game since they can exploit the Packers injuries on defense. New York has two great wide receivers and a solid quarterback in Eli Manning that has a knack for winning games late in the fourth quarter. New York scored 38 points on a healthy Packers defense last year in the playoffs and expect more of the same in this night game at MetLife Stadium. New York is 9-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.
The Packers were very fortunate to escape Detroit last week with a win and a cover for us! That being said, the team is decimated by injuries and all they have on offense in a great quarterback and an up and coming wide receiver. That will not get the job done against a team as good as the New York Giants. The Giants have a great front four and they will be able to put pressure on QB Rogers since they will not have to worry about a running game. Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS victory in the previous game.
This line is at least three points to low and expect the Giants to take it to the Packers for 60 minutes. New York has lost two straight games and has Dallas lurking right behind them. Again when good teams play late in the season, generally the team that needs it more gets the game and the Giants need this one since it is a home game and they do not want to lose three straight games. Play the home team laying the low wood!
New York by 13
|11-18-12||Green Bay Packers -3 v. Detroit Lions||Top||24-20||Win||100||120 h 25 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #115/#413 Take Green Bay Packers over Detroit Lions
(Sunday, 11/18, 1 pm FOX) NFC Game of the Year
The Packers are coming off a much needed bye and that will allow this team to get some key players healthy. The Packers have taken off since the debacle at Seattle winning five of their last six games and that includes road victories at St. Louis and Houston. Green Bay has dominated Detroit in recent years covering 9 of the last 12 meetings (1 push). Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams from the NFC North. QB Aaron Rogers loves to play in domes as over the last two years he has tallied a 19-1 touchdown to interception ratio.
The Lions are coming off a disappointing loss at Minnesota (without Percy Harvin) and their season is all but over as they sit in last place in the competitive NFC North. The Lions have played just one home game since October 1st and this brutal stretch has really taken its toll on this team. Detroit has not faced that many elite quarterbacks this season and certainly not one that is as talented as Aaron Rogers. The Lions have a running game that is non-existent and their passing game has not been as effective as it was last year. Detroit is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against NFC teams.
The Packers have owned this series over the last two decades and today will be no different . Green Bay went into Detroit last November and won 27-15 and the also Lions failed to beat the Packers in Green Bay to end the regular season. In that game the Packers rested numerous players including QB Aaron Rogers. Green Bay just has their number and that will continue on Sunday.
Green Bay by 13
|11-11-12||Houston Texans v. Chicago Bears -1||Top||13-6||Loss||-107||125 h 50 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #136/#238 Take Chicago Bears over Houston Texans
(Sunday, 11/11, 8:25 pm NBC) Top NFL Play of the Weekend
The Bears put forth a dominating performance last Sunday in Tennessee (we used them as a selection) and expect them to follow that up with a strong performance this Sunday at home against the best team in the AFC. Chicago has played a very easy schedule thus far and things will get much tougher in the coming week with a road trip to San Francisco on the horizon. The Bears have a dominating defense that can force a turnover on any given play and Houston has not seen a defense this strong in quite some time. QB Cutler has a great relationship with WR Brandon Marshall and this gives Chicago a big play weapon that has been sorely missing for years in the Windy City. Chicago is 7-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games played during the month of November.
The Texans sit atop the standing in the AFC with a 7-1 record but their only loss came via a blowout to another team from the NFC North. Houston has played just one tough team on the road this season and that came at Denver before Peyton Manning started to take off. Houston did not look that impressive last week at home against Buffalo and it would not surprise me if they come into this game overconfident. I truly believe that the loss of Brian Cushing at linebacker will eventually catch-up with this team and hurt their chances to win games in the playoffs.
Both teams are playing outstanding football at the moment and this is a game that is must see TV. That being said, I am not a big believer in Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips, as neither coach has won big games on a consistent basis. Chicago will not get all the breaks like they did last week at Tennessee, but they will create enough behind their top ranked defense to win this game at home. Houston
|11-04-12||Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Giants -3||Top||24-20||Loss||-120||124 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #134/436 Take New York Giants over Pittsburgh Steelers
(Sunday, 11/4, 4:25 pm CBS) Top NFL Selection of the Weekend
The Giants have been on quite a roll winning four straight games to move to 6-2 on the season and now face a tough inter-conference opponent in Pittsburgh. New York has a dominating offense that is sixth in the league in passing and 12th in the league in rushing. QB Eli Manning is having an outstanding season with 12 touchdown passes already and has been money throughout his career in the 4th quarter. Granted this team seems to play better on the road then they do at home, but they are facing a depleted Pittsburgh team that is just a mirror of its former self. New York is 9-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
The Steelers have won two straight games against non-playoff teams to move to 4-3 on the season but they are still decimated with injuries. WR Mike Wallace has yet to really impressive me much and has not regained his form from year
|10-28-12||Seattle Seahawks v. Detroit Lions -1||Top||24-28||Win||100||118 h 44 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #122/#230 Take Detroit Lions over Seattle Seahawks
(Sunday, 10/28, 1 pm Fox) Top NFL Play of the Weekend
The Lions did everything possible to get blown out last week on MNF against Chicago, but their defense played outstanding and we expect them to return home and play much better against a team that traditionally struggles on the road. Detroit allowed just 13 points to the Bears and three of those points were the direct result of a muffed punt. The Lions offense moved the ball against the Bears defense in the second half, they just killed themselves inside the five yard line by not being able to run the football. They will have a much easier time this week since they are a home playing a team with a young quarterback that is just being asked not to lose the game. Detroit is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played during the month of October.
The Seahawks have some impressive wins this season at home, but they have not done any damage on the road. I still believe that they are starting the wrong player at quarterback in Russell Wilson, as he played terrible against San Francisco last Thursday completing just 9 of 23 passes with no touchdowns. Seattle is 9-20 ATS (1 push) in their last 30 road games.
Both teams are coming off losses in low scoring games last week, but I believe that the Detroit defense got their mojo back, especially their front four. The loss of WR Nate Burleson will sting, but not enough to prevent the Lions from winning this game big. If they can shut down QB Jay Cutler and home they can certainly shutdown Russell Wilson playing on the road.
Detroit by 13
|10-14-12||St. Louis Rams +3.5 v. Miami Dolphins||Top||14-17||Win||100||120 h 48 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #113/#221 Take St. Louis Rams over Miami Dolphins
(Sunday, 10/14, 1 pm Fox) Top NFL Play of the Weekend
The Rams are coming off a mine-bye week having not played a game since 10/4 and expect them to be ready to go Sunday in South Beach. Coach Jeff Fischer has gotten this team over the .500 mark for the first time in years and they have a new attitude in 2012. They have played a tough schedule this season and they were only blown out one time and that came against the one loss Chicago Bears. This team is getting it done on the defensive side of the football allowing just 16 total points in their last two games. This is not a strong Miami offense and I believe that they will struggle to score 17+ points. St. Louis has covered 5 of their last 6 games.
The Dolphins are coming off a surprise road victory in Cincinnati last week to move to 2-3 on the season. But they fact remains they are not a good enough team to be laying points against anybody in the league. This team gives up a ton of passing yards, but is good at stopping the run. I expect Sam Bradford to have a good day throwing the football. Miami is happy to return home after back-to-back road games, as they have not played a home game since 9/23. QB Ryan Tannehill has thrown just two touchdowns on the season against six interceptions. Miami is 22-50 ATS (1push) in their last 73 home games.
This is a game between two defensive minded teams and getting points with the better team is too good to pass up. Twenty points may win this game and St. Louis will accomplish that feat behind a strong offense that has great balance with a run/pass option. It is hard to not side with Jeff Fisher when it comes to coaching in big games and that experience will propel the Rams to a victory.
St. Louis by 6