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*3 Star Play Under* I do not like to make it a habit of betting an under this low. In this case, I'll do it because of a few key factors.

Jacob Degrom and Framber Valdez are elite pitchers who are in great form. Degrom has a 2.19 ERA and a 2.25 FIP in his last six starts. He has a wOBA allowed of just .249 this season. Valdez has a 2.15 ERA and a 2.71 FIP in his last 10 starts. That includes a poor start in his most recent outing (Dodgers). Valdez has a 1.83 ERA at home this season.

The Astros are elite against left handed pitching, but they are league average or a little worse against right handed pitching. The Rangers are 26th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

These bullpens are both in the top six in the majors in FIP so far this year. They have a good amount of depth.

Phil Cuzzi is one of the best under umpires in the business. The under is 62-41 in his last 103 games behind home plate. He has a very high strikeout/walk ratio year after year and is clearly a strike caller. Both of these veterans should be able to take advantage of this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Pirates are 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The Pirates offense is easily dead last in the majors in the last 30 days in ISO, so they aren't showing much power at all. 

Joe Ryan is in the top 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average according to Baseball Savant. Ryan is in the top 13% of all pitchers in strikeout percentage and in the top 10% of all pitchers in fewest walks. His fastball has a ton of movement on it, and I think he can shut down the Pirates here.

Paul Skenes is already among the very best pitchers in baseball. Skenes is in the top 4% of all pitchers in expected ERA and he has a 1.94 ERA on the season. Skenes hasn't allowed a run in his last 10 innings pitched, and he has 1 walk and 15 strikeouts in those outings.

The Twins offense is 22nd in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days.

Both bullpens are clearly above average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mitchell Parker has been getting crushed of late. Parker has a 5.81 ERA and a 5.63 FIP in his last 5 starts. For the season, Parker has a 5.66 road ERA and his weighted on base average allowed on the road is a sky high .338. He is in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in baseball in exit velocity allowed. 

The Washington Nationals have seen 11 of their last 12 games get to a total of 9 runs or more. The offense has been improving of late behind Abrams and Wood. The Nationals bullpen has been getting smashed.

The Brewers offense is top 5 in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. Quinn Priester had a 3.59 ERA, but his FIP is up at 4.21 and he appears due for regression to the mean. DL Hall will open for him tonight.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Randy Vasquez starts for the Padres, and I feel he is due for some major regression. Vasquez has a 3.79 ERA and a 5.78 expected ERA. He has an extremely low batting average on balls in play allowed of just .245. In his last five games it is a ridiculously low .216. Vasquez is clearly getting fortunate. He is bottom 1% of all pitchers in baseball in whiff rate and strikeout rate. He is bottom five percent in the majors in expected ERA. 

Eduardo Rodriguez is an inconsistent starting pitcher. He is coming off a very poor start. He is also backed by a bottom five bullpen in the majors in Arizona. The Padres offense has been a bit better against left handed pitching.

I see both teams getting plenty of scoring opportunities in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Zac Gallen has struggled badly this year. Gallen has a 5.45 ERA and a 4.97 FIP on the season. He has a 6.29 ERA and a 5.64 FIP in his last ten outings. Gallen ranks in the bottom eight percent of all pitchers in the majors in hard hit baseballs so far this year. He also has struggled badly against the Padres in his career, and he has been much worse this year than he has been the majority of his career.

Yu Darvish comes off the injured list in this one. Darvish has a terrible history against this Diamondbacks lineup. Darvish has allowed a .360 weighted on base average in a large sample size of 177 plate appearances.

Arizona is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks bullpen is a bottom six or eight  bullpen in the majors right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox are third in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Boston faces a subpar left hander in Austin Gomber here. His numbers on the road are nearly as bad as his numbers at Coors in his career. Gomber is a low strikeout guy, and this is tough conditions. 

Richard Fitts struggled in the minor leagues this year, and now in the majors he has a 4.50 ERA and a 5.94 FIP. Fitts has had a lot of trouble with the long ball in his career even through the minors.

Fenway Park is one of the places where the weather matters the most. The weather for tonight calls for 83 degrees and winds blowing out about 10 or 11 mph during this game. That should really help the hitters a lot. Fenway has been very good to over bettors in these conditions in the long run.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sutter Park is a very hitter friendly park. In fact, in Baseball's Savant Park Factor ratings has it tied with Coors Field so far this season in park factor. This is clearly a great park for the hitters. The ball is flying extremely well in this small park. 

Hayden Birdsong has a 7.54 ERA and a 6.40 FIP in his last five starts. He has 16 walks and just 22 strikeouts in those five starts. Birdsong is giving up a ton of hard contact in his last few starts. This is a really dangerous park to do that.

Lopez starts for the Athletics. He has been solid, but the Giants have hit the ball much better of late, and I don't trust the Athletics bullpen behind Lopez either.

A total of 10 here for mediocre or below pitchers is good enough for me to look toward the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs are expected to have a bullpen game here with Drew Pomeranz being the starter. Pomeranz won't be around for very long, and Jordan Wicks is expected to get a decent amount of time here. Wicks has struggled quite a bit in his time in the majors in the last couple years. The Cubs middle relief isn't very strong.

Matthew Liberatore has had a good season, but this Cubs lineup is a top five lineup in baseball. Liberatore pitched well against them at home recently,  but the conditions will be different here.

Wrigley Field is a place where the weather makes a world of difference. The wind blowing out at Wrigley is great for over bettors, and that is even more the case when the temperature is hot as well. The weather for Saturday calls for low 90's with the wind blowing out at 12 mph. The ball should be carrying extremely well in this one.

With winds blowing out at least 7 mph and temperatures of 70 degrees or warmer the over is 52-30 in the last 82 games at Wrigley. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sandy Alcantara is in terrible form this year. Alcantara has a 6.98 ERA on the season. He ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA, expected batting average, and whiff percentage. He is getting hit hard regularly, and his strikeout rate is way down from a few years ago.

Milwaukee ranks top three in the majors in most of the major offensive categories for the last 30 days. The Brewers have gotten great contributions out of Sal Fralick and Brice Turang. William Contreras and Christian Yelich are stars as well. 

Quinn Priester has a good ERA this year, but under the surface there are some concerning signs. His FIP is quite a bit higher than his ERA, and his strikeout rate is running low. His expected batting average is in the bottom 40% of all pitchers in the majors. 

The Marlins are hitting the ball well of late. Edwards is a good leader for them, and Stowers is really coming into his own as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Coors Field day games in the heat have trended extremely high scoring in the long run. Blindly betting overs on totals of 11.5 or lower at Coors in day games has hit better than 58% in the last five years. 

Kyle Freeland has a 7.11 ERA and a .423 weighted on base average at Coors Field this year. The Houston Astros have a top three offense in the majors against left handed pitching. This should be a tough one for him.

Brandon Walter has been good so far this year, but this is a big test. Walter has a tendency to give up too many home runs, and these conditions are tough. Walter hasn't pitched anywhere similar to Coors Field.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Giants start Hayden Birdsong in this one. Birdsong is a youngster with plenty of promise, but he has proven streaky in his short career. He is up against a really tough lineup in a hitter friendly ballpark here. The Diamondbacks are second in the majors in runs per game at home. Chase Field is a top three hitter friendly park in the majors according to Baseball Savant's park factor ratings. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks start Zac Gallen here. Gallen has been in really bad form. Gallen has 7.04 ERA and a 6.59 FIP in his last eight starts. Gallen ranks in the bottom 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. He has allowed 13 HR's in his last 46 innings pitched. Gallen has allowed 4 runs or more in seven of his last eight starts.

Chase Field should help out here and these two starters are in poor form.

Take the over in this one.

*3 Star Play Under* It's Canada Day and we have an early start time for this one. Max Fried and Kevin Gausman are matched up against each other in this one.

Max Fried has had one bad start all season, and that was against the LA Dodgers loaded lineup. Fried has five starts since that start, and he has a 1.91 ERA and a 2.45 FIP in those starts. He has only 5 walks and 34 strikeouts in those five outings. Fried has great career numbers against the Blue Jays lineup as well.

Kevin Gausman has been a bit up and down, but he has elite swing and miss stuff. He can walk too many at times, but the home plate umpire here should help. 

Both bullpens are clearly above average.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire, and he has been the most consistent strike caller and under umpire in the majors for the last decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners have been amazing offensively on the road, but they still play in one of the toughest ballparks in the majors for hitters. Seattle averages a full run per game less at home vs. on the road. 

George Kirby has started the throw the ball better of late. Kirby came back slowly from an injury, but in his last five starts he has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.30 xFIP. That includes one poor start in Chicago where the wind was howling out at Wrigley Field. Kirby is a good starter in the long run, and he is up against a very weak offense.

Michael Wacha has been consistently very good this year. Wacha has a 3.33 ERA and a 3.60 FIP. Wacha does a nice job limiting hard contact.

The Royals have seen 6 of their last 8 games stay under this low total. In a pitcher's park with two solid starters, I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox are 23rd in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are 5th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching this season. They are up against a mediocre in Eric Lauer in this one. 

Walker Buehler has been getting ripped this season overall, but he has been significantly worse in recent outings. Buehler has 10.14 ERA and a 8.13 FIP in his last five starts. Buehler is walking a lot of people, and he is giving up the long ball way too frequently.

Toronto's offense has been swinging the bat much better in recent weeks. Boston had been struggling a bit on offense of late, but they just put up 15 runs yesterday.

Fenway Park is one where the weather matters a lot and the wind is blowing out about 10 mph on a warm day in Boston here. 

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here, and he has one of the lowest strikes called percentages year after year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Spencer Schwellenbach is an underrated starting pitcher. Schwellenbach has a great combination of an ability to create swings and misses and not walk many batters at all. He is walking just 1.48 batters per nine innings. He has a chase rate that is in the top 4% of all pitchers in the majors. He has a 3.21 ERA on the year, and he has been even better at home. 

Jesus Luzardo had two really bad outings a few games ago. He was tipping his pitches. Now that he has taken care of that, Luzardo has been back to pitching very well. For the season, Luzardo has a 4.08 ERA, but his FIP is an excellent 2.77. 

The Phillies and Braves are both in the bottom ten in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. These two offenses have had quite a few down days of late. They are up against tough customers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Edward Cabrera can be a streaky pitcher, but he's ultra talented and he is in great form right now. Cabrera has a 1.46 ERA in his last five starts. That includes a scoreless 5 and 2/3 innings against the Giants on May 31st. 

Logan Webb is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Webb has a 2.49 ERA and a 2.22 FIP on the season. He has a 1.35 ERA at home in this pitcher friendly ballpark in San Francisco.

These are two bottom ten offenses in the majors in the last month. They both run into a really good pitcher who is throwing the ball very well here.

I like the starting pitchers to have the advantage here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been the best offense in baseball in the last 30 days. Tampa Bay has been crushing the baseball. The Rays have gotten great performances from Aranda, Caminero, and Diaz to lead the offense this season. 

The Kansas City Royals offense hasn't been very good this year, but they are in a positive situation here.

Taj Bradley is a very streaky pitcher, and he has allowed 19 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. Bradley has been giving up a lot of hard contact, and that is a real cause for concern.

Kris Bubic is having a good season, but he has tailed off a bit in recent starts. This is a tough matchup.

The weather here is a factor too. A game time temperature of about 90 degrees with winds of 8 or 9 mph blowing out should help the batters. This weather at Kaufman Stadium has really helped over bettors through the years.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are third in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Chicago Cubs are fourth in the majors in wOBA overall. These are two good offenses. 

The first two games in this series have finished 9-4 and 10-7. The hot weather and heavy winds blowing out are the perfect conditions for an over and a nice boost to the batters here. 

Overs at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out at 8 mph or more and a temperature above 75 degrees have an ROI of better than 15% in the last 15 years. 

Logan Gilbert is a good pitcher, but this is a difficult spot for him and he isn't quite 100 percent from his recent injury. Colin Rea is a below average starter, and I think the Mariners can get to him plenty here.

The umpire in this one is Edwin Moscoso who is one of the best over umpires in baseball. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers played a really high scoring second half that pushed the game a bit over the total in Game 5. There were a few things that stood out in that game. There were 37 offensive rebounds in that game. The two games before that had 19 and 16 offensive rebounds total. There were also 62 free throws in that game, and both teams made at least 80% of their free throws.

In the long run, NBA bettors taking the under in game 6 and game 7 of the playoffs have profited in a big way. It has been an even better angle when the home team is a small favorite or an underdog. When the home team is -2.5 to +10.5 the under is a whopping 65-32 with the average margin going under by more than 5.5 points. 

Tyrese Haliburton is a big question mark here. He's a huge key to the Pacers offense with his passing and scoring ability. 

This game should bring high intensity defense and I like it to stay lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been tremendous this year. Arizona is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are also tied for first in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.08 runs per game on the season.

Toronto is 11th in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Blue Jays offense has improved in recent weeks. The Blue Jays are 7th in OBP in the last 30 days.

Brandon Pfaadt has been bad this season. He ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA and expected batting average allowed. He also ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in hard hit percentage allowed. 

Chris Bassitt started the season on fire, but he has come back down to earth of late. Bassitt has a 4.50 ERA and a 4.55 FIP since May 1st. He has a 5.87 ERA and a 5.16 FIP in his last four starts.

The Blue Jays bullpen is average or slightly below average. The Diamondbacks bullpen is a bottom five bullpen in the majors.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder were the best defense in the NBA this year. They came up with the key stops that they needed last game down the stretch in a big comeback victory. 

In game four, the first quarter was 35-34, but then the rest of the game was a defensive battle played to a slower pace. The pace was 98.5 possessions in that one. That has been the slowest paced game in the series.

In a 2-2 game in the NBA Finals, this is a huge game for both teams, and I would expect the defensive intensity to be very high now.

With a slower pace and a game that means even more to both teams, I like the under here. Unless the game is a free throw fest, I like this to stay lower scoring. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Eury Perez has been a very highly ranked pitching prospect for the Miami Marlins. Perez looked pretty good in limited time last year. He has made just one start this year due to an injury. He started slowly against the Pirates in that game, but his minor league numbers suggest he has a bright future.

MacKenzie Gore has a stellar 2.86 ERA and a 2.63 FIP on the season. Gore also has allowed a great .240 weighted on base average against this Marlins lineup. In Gore's last five starts overall, he has a 1.57 ERA and a 1.64 FIP. He has allowed only one home run in his last five starts.

Both of these offenses are below average for the season. The Nationals are dead last in the majors in wOBA in the last 14 days.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The CFL season is back and I feel there is value in this game. The higher totals in the CFL have been good to under bettors, and that has been especially the case when the home team is either favored or a very short underdog. Toronto is a 1 point favorite in this one. 

The Toronto offense isn't all that dynamic with Arbuckle at quarterback. He also makes too many mistakes that end drives. 

Calgary just beat up on Hamilton's very weak defense last week, but I think they'll find it tougher going against the Toronto solid defense here.

Four of the last six meetings between these two have stayed under this total. Three of the six games have finished at 41 total points or lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Erick Fedde is due for some major regression. He has a 3.54 ERA but a 5.28 expected ERA. Fedde is in the bottom 12 percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. He is in the bottom 6 percent in whiff rate and his overall strikeout rate is way down from last year. 

Freddy Peralta is a quality pitcher, but he has overachieved his underlying stats as well. Peralta has a 2.69 ERA with a 3.60 expected ERA and 4.10 xFIP on the season. 

Fedde has been torched by this Brewers lineup. In 116 plate appearances, the Brewers have a staggering .400 batting average and a .473 weighted on base average. 

Peralta has been hit hard by the Cardinals lineup too. He has a .357 wOBA in 159 plate appearances. 

The two bullpens are both below average according to the advanced metrics.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Spencer Schwellenbach has racked up some really impressive numbers this year. He has 14 walks compared to 75 strikeouts on the season. Schwellenbach has 2 walks and 26 strikeouts in his last three starts. He has a 3.24 ERA on the season and his FIP is 3.26. 

Chad Patrick has a 2.84 ERA and a 3.23 FIP on the season. Patrick has a stellar 2.25 ERA and a .274 weighted on base average allowed at home this year. 

These two offenses have struggled to string together hits and big innings. I think the two starting pitchers can fare well in this one.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here, and he has been the most consistent under umpire in the majors in the last five years. Eddings continually has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and he is clearly a pitcher friendly umpire.

It is a get away day game and we could see a key bat or two out of the lineup. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been amazing all season. They are clearly a top five offense. They are also playing at Chase Field, and this is a hitter friendly ballpark. 

Arizona has seen 8 of their last 12 games finish with at least 9 total runs. Brandon Pfaadt is in the bottom one percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. Arizona also has a bottom five bullpen in baseball. The Seattle Mariners are fourth in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. 

Bryan Woo is a good starting pitcher, but he has much better numbers at home during his career.

I think either team could have a big game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bowden Francis is in terrible form right now. Francis has 7.98 ERA and a 7.40 FIP in his last seven starts. Francis ranks in the bottom five percent of all pitchers in the majors in hard hit percentage allowed. He ranks in the bottom ten percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average allowed and expected ERA. Francis has allowed a whopping 11 home runs in his last 29 innings pitched.

Joe Ryan is a good starting pitcher. Ryan has been a bit more shaky of late though with a lower swinging strike percentage and a higher walk rate. 

The Toronto offense is first in the majors by a wide margin in wOBA in the last 14 days. The Twins are 14th.

The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 mph during this game. Those winds do change the game a lot in this park.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Storm offense has been showing signs of life lately. Seattle has scored 83 points or more in three of their last five games. 

Phoenix has been terrific offensively in their last few games. The Lynx have slowed them down, but they might have the single best defense in the WNBA. The rest of their recent games have been Phoenix really pouring it on offensively.

The recent meetings between these two teams have been low scoring because of abnormally low shooting percentages. I think this one normalizes and gets past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are third in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Seattle goes up against Kyle Hendricks in this one. Hendricks was previously a high quality pitcher, but he is well past his prime now. Hendricks relied on a very high chase percentage to be successful in the past, but he no longer carries those high rates. Hendrick isn't going to pile up strikeouts, and his walk rate is quite a bit higher than it was a few seasons ago too.

Bryce Miller is in the bottom 15th percentile in expected batting average. Miler has had very poor splits on the road in his career. Miller isn't 100% healthy and his form of late has been bad. 

The Angels bullpen ranks in the bottom five of the majors in all the major statistics. The Mariners bullpen is a below average bullpen by the numbers as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday night. Max Fried has a stellar 1.92 ERA on the season, but he is coming off a poor start against the Dodgers. I see this as a bounce back start for Fried. Fried has elite control and does a good job not giving up hard contact. The Guardians lack depth in the lineup. 

Slade Cecconi is a project, but he has ranked out pretty well in whiff rate in the early going. The Yankees do have several high strikeout guys in their lineup.

The Guardians and Yankees are both top six in the majors in defensive runs saved. These are two of the top ten bullpens in the majors.

Cory Blaser is the home plate umpire and the under is 10-2 in his 12 games behind home plate this year. He has an extremely high strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers and New York Mets have consistently been top five offenses in the majors this year. The Dodgers are first in the majors in weighted on base average and they obviously have a lot of pop in the lineup. The Mets have gotten some production out of the top of the lineup, and they have a good mixture of contact hitters and power guys.

Griffin Canning had a great start to the season this year. Canning seemed to be pitching far above every expectation for him. He has fallen off badly in the last three games though. Canning has 9 walks and 8 strikeouts in his last three starts. He has a 6.55 ERA and a 6.44 FIP. 

Tony Gonsolin has been struggling this season. In Gonsolin's last five games he has an ERA of 5.40, but his FIP is all the way up at 6.92. He has given up six home runs in his last 15 innings pitched. He has given up hard contact all season.

I see both offenses having chances for big innings here against starters who are struggling.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers have been poor on offense all season. They were gifted quite a few runs late by bad defense from the Cardinals on Sunday. On the whole though, the Rangers defense has been poor at stringing together hits. 

Drew Rasmussen has allowed a grand total of zero runs in his last three starts (18 innings pitched). Rasmussen has improved his control and opponents aren't hitting the ball as hard off of him as they did in some previous seasons.

Tyler Mahle has great movement on his pitches, and he has been tremendous this year. He has allowed two runs or less in all but one start. He excels at inducing soft contact. 

The Tampa Bay lineup has been inconsistent this season. The Rays have seen 10 of their last 15 games stay under this low total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense is fourth in the majors in weighted on base average. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.02 runs per game. They can score in a variety of ways and they should put pressure on Spencer Strider here. Strider is a really talented pitcher, but he isn't 100% yet coming back from a major injury. 

Zac Gallen has been really bad of late. He is in a major funk. Gallen has allowed 20 runs in his last four starts. Gallen has walked at least two batters in 10 straight starts. He ranks in the bottom 20% of all pitchers in the majors in average exit velocity allowed. 

The Braves lineup is healthier now and I expect them to improve their offensive output in the coming weeks. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets are 6th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Mets lineup has a lot of power in the middle, and the guys at the bottom of the order have done their jobs as well. 

The LA Dodgers offense is first in the majors in wOBA, and they are first by a mile in the last 30 days. The Dodgers have played in six straight games that have had at least 9 runs scored.

Dodger Stadium ranks as the sixth most hitter friendly park in the last two years. It is fourth most hitter friendly this year alone.

Paul Blackburn is a below average starting pitcher who has been injured and is being thrown into a very tough spot here against an elite Dodgers lineup. I don't think it will go well for him.

Dustin May has a worse wOBA allowed at home, and the Dodgers bullpen has been shaky of late.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers offense has disappointed all season. They are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average at home. It wasn't a few years ago, but this ballpark has become a very pitcher friendly park. 

The St. Louis Cardinals offense has been very good at home this year, but they are slightly below league average on the road. They are up against a really tough customer here in the form of Jacob Degrom.

Degrom has rounded into form very nicely after a slow start early in the season as he came back from a long break due to injury. He's still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and I like his chances here against the Cardinals.

Erick Fedde has been a mediocre starting pitcher in his career, but the Rangers are struggling badly against those middle of the road pitchers, especially when they are right handers at home.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks came away with an impressive win over the Indiana Pacers on Thursday night. The Knicks defense really contested shots well, and they did a great job keeping Haliburton in front of them in Game 5. 

While some of the games in this series have been very high scoring, that is now two of the last three games in this series that have finished at 206 points and 205 points. 

These potential closeout games can really tighten up especially later in the playoffs. These teams are so close to their final goal. The amount of effort that these teams are going to put in on the defensive end now compared to a regular season game is just tremendously different.

The Knicks have a defensive minded head coach. The Knicks will work to slow the pace down in this game.

Game six and game seven in the NBA playoffs have been very good to under bettors in the last 15 years. 

This is a pretty high total given the importance of the game. I'll take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants pitching staff has been amazing in recent weeks, while at the same time the offense has cooled off drastically from the red hot start they had to the season. The Giants have been an under machine of late. Their last seven games have stayed under this total. Also, 11 of their last 12 games have stayed under this total.

Robbie Ray has a 1.62 ERA and a 1.51 FIP in his last six starts. Ray has allowed zero home runs in those six starts. He has 9 walks and 44 strikeouts in that span. Ray is fully capable of dominating any lineup when he is on his A game. 

Edwin Cabrera started the season slowly for the Marlins, but he has been pitching well of late. Cabrera is a high upside guy who occasionally struggles with control. In his last four starts, Cabrera has a 2.53 ERA and a 2.84 FIP. He has walked only five batters in that span. 

These are two below average lineups, and I like the pitching to have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles offense is better than they have shown so far this year. Sean Burke is overmatched right now pitching for the Chicago White Sox. Burke has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his ten starts in the majors this year. Burke is giving up a lot of home runs as well.

Zach Eflin is a middle of the road pitcher. The Orioles bullpen has been the worst in the majors so far this year.

The weather calls for a chance of rain here, and if it does rain and the bullpens are needed for even longer than normal in this one that is helpful for the over. Both of these are bad bullpens and the offenses should get a lot of chances against those groups.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Pablo Lopez has been absolutely dealing this year. Lopez has a 2.31 ERA and a 2.42 FIP on the season thus far. Lopez has only allowed more than 2 runs in one of his last eight starts. He has great control and has done a very good job avoiding giving up the long ball.

Drew Rasmussen has a 2.60 ERA and his advanced metrics all look very good as well. Rasmussen has pitched back to back games of 6 innings and no runs allowed. Ramussen also has a stellar 1.91 ERA in 117 and 2/3 innings in day games in his career. He has been at his best in these situations. 

For both of these teams, 7 of their last 10 games have been below this posted total.

These two offenses are both slightly below league average in weighted on base average. It's a get away day game and I think we'll see a key bat or two sitting this one out. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brady Singer makes the start here against his old team in Kansas City. Singer has been inconsistent this year,  but he faces a Royals team that has been bottom six or seven in the majors in all the major offensive categories all year long. The Royals have been especially weak offensively at home. 

The Royals start Lynch in this one, but it will be a bullpen game. The Royals bullpen is fifth in the majors in ERA. Kansas City is giving up the second fewest runs per game in the majors so far this year.

There will be cool temperatures and a slight breeze blowing in from center field for this game.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the best under umpires in the game. Kuilpa continually has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and is a pitcher friendly umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers are back home to host the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday. Texas starts Jacob Degrom in this one. Degrom started the season a bit slowly in his return from injury, but he has been tremendous in his last seven starts. In those seven starts, Degrom has a 1.66 ERA and a 2.43 FIP. He's walked just six batters in those seven starts. Degrom is back to his dominant self.

Kevin Gausman has had a nice season for the Blue Jays as well. He's actually due for some positive regression with a 4.30 ERA and a 3.37 FIP on the season thus far.

Both of these pitchers have a good history against these lineups. These lineups are both in the bottom eight in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Globe Life Field in Texas is a top five pitcher's park between last season and this season. Both of these bullpens are above average too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cory Blaser is the home plate umpire for this game. Blaser has been a pretty good under umpire for many years now, but he is taking it to the next level this year. Blaser's games are 9-1 to the under. Those records can be a fluke, but his strikeout/walk ratio is well over 4 and is easily the highest of the regular umpires in the majors. Blaser is the ultimate pitcher friendly umpire this season.

The Cardinals lineup is banged up right now. Contreras has hit the ball well off Kelly in the past, but he was scratched from last night's game with back issues and he is questionable here. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been much better on offense against right handed pitching. Liberatore has been excellent for the Cardinals this year. He doesn't walk hardly anyone, and he does a good job not giving up hard contact.

Merrill Kelly has been very good in his last few starts, and I like his chances against this weakened Cardinals lineup.

The wind is blowing in here and in these conditions the under has been very good in St. Louis.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average so far this year. The Baltimore Orioles are 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average this season so far. 

Chad Patrick has been good for the Brewers this year. He does a good job minimizing walks, and Patrick has been excellent when pitching at home. The Orioles lineup has had a hard time stringing together hits.

Sugano has four walks and 20 strikeouts in his last four starts for the Baltimore Orioles. He has been remarkably consistent this year. Sugano has a .250 weighted on base average on the road this season. 

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the best under umpires in the majors. He is a strike caller and he should help both pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are second in the majors in wRC+ on the road. Seattle is also third in the majors in wOBA on the road. Seattle's lineup has hit Nick Pivetta extremely well in the past. Pivetta has allowed a whopping .443 weighted on base average in 96 plate appearances. He has allowed ten home runs in those 96 plate appearances as well.

Pivetta started the season on fire, but he has struggled a bit more in his last couple starts. He isn't a bad pitcher by any means, but I do think he is due for some regression to the mean. 

Emerson Hancock is a below average starter up against an above average San Diego lineup. Hancock has a 6.91 ERA and a 5.94 expected ERA so far this season. His expected batting average allowed is in the bottom 4% of all pitchers in the majors according to Baseball Savant. The Padres should have plenty of scoring chances.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks were embarrassed with their defensive performance in Game 5. Tom Thibodeau is a defensive minded coach, and he talked a lot about their poor closeouts and poor transition defense last game. 

Boston put up a ridiculous 1.396 points per possession on offense last game. The Celtics aren't likely to shoot the ball as well here, and the Knicks are almost surely going to contest those jumpers much better than they did last game.

The pace in Game 5 was slower than the series average at just 91 possessions. As the games get bigger the pace usually slows down. If we assume a pace of 91 possessions again, it would take both teams averaging about 1.16 points per possession (very high for playoff basketball) for this to get to the total.

Betting on game 6 and game 7 unders in the NBA playoffs has been a big winning proposition in the long term. Blindly betting on these in the past 16 years has given under bettors an ROI of 11.2%.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets go back home down 3-2 and facing elimination if they lose this game. Oklahoma City fought very hard and dominated Denver in the 4th quarter in Game 5 to get a 3-2 series lead. 

The last three games have seen the final totals finish at 217 (in overtime), 179, and 217 total points. The pace has slowed down some and the defenses have been forcing quite a few turnovers.

In the NBA playoffs, Game 6 and Game 7 unders have done well, and when it is the team oddsmakers rate higher on the road that has been especially true. For example, when home teams in game 6 or 7 who are priced at -2.5 to +10.5 on the spread, the under is a whopping 65-31 to the under. The average margin is more than 5.5 points to the under.

Denver isn't likely to give up easily and I like this one to be a defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense isn't good. The Royals are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average. Witt is a star, but he doesn't have enough help around him in this lineup.

Even at this low number, 10 of the Royals last 14 games have gone under this total. The Royals have an above average bullpen, and their defense is very good. 

Cole Ragans starts here, and Ragans has a 3.79 ERA, but an excellent 2.28 expected ERA and a 2.38 FIP. Ragans has a .347 batting average on balls in play allowed so far this year, and that is bound to positively regress toward the mean over time. Ragans is striking out an insane 14.38 batters per nine innings, and he is one of the best lefties in the majors.

Garrett Crochet has a 2.02 ERA and 2.84 FIP. Crochet is another excellent lefty. The Boston left hander has allowed two runs or fewer in six of eight starts this year. He should be able to slow this Kansas City offense.

The home plate umpire here is Ron Kulpa, who is an excellent under umpire based on his long history of a high strikeout/walk ratio. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees start Will Warren here. Warren has plenty of potential, but thus far it just has not worked out. He had a 5.23 ERA in Triple A in 2023. He had an ERA over 10 in a little over 22 innings last year. He has a 5.67 ERA so far this season. He is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in baseball in average exit velocity allowed (93.7 mph). He has a home run problem.

Osvaldo Bido ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout rate. He is in the bottom 25% in expected ERA as well. 

The Yankees are first in the majors in most offensive categories. The Athletics are top ten in most of them too. 

Sutter Park is the second most hitter friendly park in the majors so far this year. These two lineups should get plenty of scoring chances in this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks both rank in the top five in the majors in total offense. They are two deep lineups with the ability to score through stringing together singles or through the long  ball. 

Eduardo Rodriguez has a 5.92 ERA on the year, and he has been torched by the Dodgers lineup in the past. The Dodgers have a .329 batting average and a .382 wOBA against him in his career. Freddie Freeman has really hit him hard.

Roki Sasaki has major control problems. He has 20 walks in his 30 and 1/3 innings pitched. He's walked at least two batters in every start despite only going six innings once all season. He isn't getting batters to swing at the balls out of the strike zone thus far.

Chase Field is a top three or four hitters park with the roof open and the roof is scheduled to be open for this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mariners take on the Athletics in Sacramento on Tuesday night. Seattle is first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. They get to play in a very hitter friendly park in Sacramento on Tuesday night against a middle of the road left handed starter in Springs. 

Springs has a 7.20 ERA and a .374 wOBA allowed in games at Sacramento. On the road, Springs has a 3.26 ERA and a .270 wOBA allowed. 

Emerson Hancock starts for the Mariners here. Hancock has a 6.62 ERA on the season thus far. Hancock just doesn't get enough swings and misses with his stuff. He is in the 14th percentile in the majors in whiff rate and 13th percentile in chase rate. The Athletics offense has some young talent and I think they'll be able to do damage here.

Both bullpens have been used heavily of late, especially after going into extra innings on Monday night.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday evening. Arizona is 6th in the majors in runs per game. The Phillies are 5th in the majors in runs per game at home. 

Aaron Nola has lost velocity on his fastball, and his breaking pitches have had far less run to them this year. Nola is in the 24th percentile of major league pitchers in expected batting average allowed. He has a 5.40 ERA on the season. He has 11 walks in his last four starts. 

Brandon Pfaadt is due for some regression. He has a 2.78 ERA and a 3.93 FIP and a 5.01 expected ERA. 

The weather calls for winds of about 10-12 mph with higher gusts blowing out toward center and left center field during the game. There is a chance for some rain/thunderstorms popping up during this game. 

If there is a rain delay, the bullpens might get some extra work. Both of these bullpens are in the bottom ten in the majors in bullpen ERA.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets shot lights out in their 131-115 win over the Clippers in Denver on Tuesday night. The Clippers shot it really well too. Denver shot 56% from the floor and the Clippers shot 52.4% from the floor. The Nuggets put up a ridiculous 1.394 points per possession in that one. The Clippers had 1.211 points per possession. 

For the series as a whole, four of the five games have been at 207 points or fewer at the end of regulation. Three of the five games have been at 200 points or lower at the end of regulation. 

Potential elimination games in the NBA playoffs have been good to the under in the long run. That is especially the case when we get to game six and game seven. The tendency is for the game to slow down and the defenses to be at their best. The under in game 6 and game 7 in the first round is 60-40 in the last 100 games.

The Clippers are a good defensive team, and I think they will be embarrassed by their poor defensive effort on Tuesday night. 

The average pace in this series is just 91 possessions. That requires an average of both teams averaging 1.17 points per possession or so to get to this total. The pace might be a bit slower here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks meet in Detroit in Game 6 of what has been a really competitive series. The young Pistons have been playing some great basketball down the stretch in the regular season, and this has been a very evenly played series. 

New York was one of the slower paced teams in the league this year. The Knicks should lean on their defense and slow this game down. 

Detroit has been physical down low and that has thrown off the Knicks quite a bit in this series. The Pistons sometimes don't have enough scoring options in the key moments. 

The under is 130-81 in the last 211 in Game 6 or Game 7 of the NBA playoffs. The pace has slowed a bit in the last two games between these two teams. 

A lot on the line in this one. I'll take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers have had a ton of low scoring games this year. In fact, 13 of the Rangers last 14 games have gone under this posted total. Their last six games have all finished with 7 total runs or fewer. 

The A's have been a relatively high scoring team, but they play in Sacramento for their home games and that is a clear hitters park. Even with that being the case, 10 of their last 15 games overall have finished under 8.5.

Jacob Degrom is still working back from his injury, but he has looked much better in his last couple starts. Degrom is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and I think he can have a solid start here.

Jacob Lopez starts for the A's here. The Rangers offense is bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average this year. 

Texas is 5th in bullpen FIP and the Athletics are 11th, so these are two solid bullpens.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros have one of the best bullpens in baseball. They are loaded with depth in the bullpen, and they are second in the majors in FIP and 4th in ERA. Ronel Blanco has pitched into some bad luck, and he starts in this one. I still think Blanco is at least a pretty good starting pitcher. His expected ERA is more than 1 full run lower than his ERA right now. 

Jack Flaherty starts for the Tigers. Flaherty is a proven very good right handed pitcher. He has a 2.63 ERA and a 3.07 FIP. Flaherty is striking out 11.20 batters per nine innings. The Tigers bullpen is also ranked top five in the majors in ERA.

The Astros offense is bottom five in the majors against right handed pitching. The Tigers offense is below average against righties. 

Both pitchers have had great success going against the opposing lineups in this one. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average at home. Coors Field is obviously a fantastic hitters park. The Cincinnati Reds are third in the majors in wOBA on the road so far this year. 

Nick Lodolo is a good pitcher, but his strikeout rate is down this year and he is due for regression. A pitcher due for this much regression heading to Coors Field is a warning sign.

Ryan Feltner has been much worse at Coors Field in his career, and he has been far worse in the first half of the season than he has been in the second half of the season in his career.

These two bullpens are very bad. The Rockies bullpen is third worst in the majors in FIP. The Reds bullpen is worst in the majors in FIP. Both of them are bottom three in the majors in SIERA as well. There should be plenty of scoring chances late in this one.

Coors Field day games with warm temperatures have been great to over bettors. That factor alone has been north of 60% in the last decade. The average wind in this one is blowing out to center field at about 17 or 18 mph. These are great conditions for the hitters.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers were third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 15 games of the regular season. The Clippers when healthy have been excellent on defense. The Nuggets have an extremely high 16.5% turnover rate in the series. 

Michael Porter Jr. is trying to play through an injury. Jamal Murray isn't completely healthy. Russell Westbrook is injured now too. There is so much pressure on Jokic to dominate all the time now. The Nuggets other options just aren't reliable. 

The pace in this series has averaged about 91 possessions. That requires about 1.17 points per possession to get to this total. With turnovers and inefficient shooting that is hard to get to without a major foul fest.

James Harden is inconsistent offensively in the playoffs. The Nuggets defense should be a bit better in this game.

The Clippers defense is the best unit on the floor in this series. I like the value to the under again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees are tied for the top spot in the majors in weighted on base average offensively. They are first in the majors in wRC+. This is a deep lineup with a ton of power all through the lineup. The Yankees hitters have tremendous career stats against Jose Berrios. In 113 plate appearances against the Yankees, Berrios has allowed a .323 batting average and a .437 wOBA. Aaron Judge has 5 career home runs against Berrios. Cody Bellinger is 3/4 with a homer against him as well. Berrios has a 5.02 ERA and a 5.43 FIP on the season thus far.

Carlos Carrasco has a 6.53 ERA and a 5.74 FIP on the season. Carrasco gives up loads of hard contact and has a very high home run rate allowed. The Blue Jays do have some power in the lineup, and Carrasco is completely capable of giving up a big number here.

The two bullpens are average and there should be scoring chances against them as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers go home to host the Denver Nuggets in Game 3. This series couldn't have been closer in the first two games in Denver. I think this series will be extremely tight the whole way.

The first two games in this series were low scoring. Game one was 98-98 before overtime. Game two was 105-102. It hasn't been poor shooting numbers either. The pace numbers have slowed down a lot from the regular season meetings. The games weren't artificially low. The totals were just set too high. Both of these teams have some defensive stoppers, and open looks have been difficult to find thus far. 

Kawhi Leonard has picked up his level a lot in the postseason. The Nuggets aren't as efficient on offense with Westbrook taking questionable shots too often. On the other side, the Clippers are capable of being great on offense, but they are inconsistent and go through scoring droughts.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rockets and Warriors met five times this year. Four of the five games finished well below this total. In fact, four of the five games were 203 total points or lower. 

The Rockets and Warriors both finished top seven in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both of these teams finished with an average tempo that was slightly slower than the average tempo in the NBA overall. The Warriors played a bit slower in their games with Jimmy Butler in the lineup. 

The Rockets are a good team, but they lack that elite scorer to take over a game. Houston does play tremendous team defense though. They will make Golden State work very hard to get open looks.

The game changes quite a bit in the playoffs, and I think the pace here will be even slower than their regular season meetings. The shooting numbers might be a bit higher, but I think it will take some abnormally hot shooting to get past this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 12 mph with gusts up to 18 mph at Citi Field for this Sunday afternoon battle between the Cardinals and Mets. 

Clay Holmes is off to a nice start for the Mets. He has a 3.66 ERA and his FIP is 2.17, which suggests he has gotten at least somewhat unlucky as well. Holmes is striking out 12.81 batters per nine innings.

Sonny Gray has a solid 3.13 ERA and a 3.94 FIP. Gray has been better in the first half of the season than the second throughout his career. He has also been better on the road.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the top two or three under umpires in baseball. He is a strike caller who frustrates the batters game after game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Kings are first in the NHL in goals scored in the last 20 games at 78 goals. The Kings should be able to do damage against a Calgary defense that has struggled of late.

Calgary did struggle with scoring much of the year, but the Flames have 17 goals in their last four games. Calgary is out of the playoff race, but the Flames are playing free and putting the puck in the net.

This is a late season contest that doesn't really matter much. The Kings know their playoff matchup and the Flames are done for the year here. These late season contests have trended over heavily.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The late season angle of taking overs (especially lower overs) in games that don't mean much to the two teams has been very strong in the NHL in the last decade. 

Detroit has missed the playoffs once again. The New Jersey Devils are locked into their first round matchup. There isn't much of anything to play for in this one, and I expect that to help the scoring.

The last two meetings between these two easily surpassed this total.

The Devils have seen three of their last four games go over this total. The Red Wings last two games totaled 7 and 10 goals.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense is struggling in a big way. Kansas City has scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 8 games. Kansas City has seen 9 of their last 10 games stay under 8.5 runs. 

Clarke Schmidt turned into a very solid starter last year. I don't see the Royals snapping out of their ugly offensive funk in this one against him. 

Kris Bubic has added a sweeper to his pitching arsenal, and Bubic has allowed only 2 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings pitched this season. He has a whopping 21 strikeouts on the season already.

Ryan Blakeney is a help to the pitchers with his bigger strike zone behind home plate. 

Though the wind is blowing out a bit here, the temperatures will be very chilly in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Spencer Schwellenbach has pitched as well as anyone in the majors so far this year. Schwellenbach has allowed a grand total of one run in 20 innings pitched this season. He has only issued three walks and has 19 strikeouts. 

Kevin Gausman has been very good this year. Gausman has just three walks in 19 and 1/3 innings pitched this year. He does a good job keeping the ball down in the strike zone and keeping it in the park. 

Roberto Ortiz is a good under umpire. Ortiz should help the pitchers get a few extra strikes called on the corners in this one.

Neither offense is in great form and I think the pitchers will have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Blackhawks are one of the worst teams in the NHL. They have allowed the most goals of anyone in the NHL this year. Chicago is playing their last game of the season here. The Blackhawks have nothing to play for, and they can just let loose and play a fast paced game where scoring chances are even higher than normal.

Ottawa is locked into their spot, and the Senators have no reason to fight as hard in this game as they do once they are in the playoffs. The Senators have had three straight games get to 7 goals.

Late season NHL games between mediocre (Ottawa) and bad teams (Chicago) have trended strongly toward the over. The less there is to play for the over has trended quite strongly in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NHL regular season is about to come to a close. The last couple games of the season have trended strongly to the over for teams who are average or below average. Chicago is among the very worst teams, and they have the single worst defense/goaltending in the entire league.

Chicago has allowed the most goals in the NHL. The Blackhawks have allowed 5 goals in six of their last nine games. 

Montreal has allowed the 7th most goals in the league. Chicago is averaging 3.2 goals per game in their last ten contests, and the Blackhawks should be playing free in this one.

Montreal needs this game and I suspect they'll score plenty.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers were shut out by Ben Brown and the Chicago Cubs last night. The Dodgers stellar lineup isn't going to be shut out many times this year, and now they are up against a subpar starting pitcher in Colin Rea. Rea is likely to make the start here since Justin Steele is banged up. Rea has allowed a .304 average and a .377 weighted on base average against this Dodgers lineup. 

Tyler Glasnow has a lot of good stuff, but he has been banged up a lot and he has been inconsistent. He hasn't had his best command this year. 

The Cubs and Dodgers are two top five offenses in the majors. Both of these teams have plenty of blowup potential on offense to have big innings. Five of the Dodgers last six games have finished with 10 runs or more total scored. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors and LA Clippers have a bunch on the line on Saturday afternoon in the Bay Area.  Both teams are fighting to stay out of the play in tournament.  Both teams could finish seventh with a loss here. 

Steph Curry is listed as questionable with a hand injury. I am going to assume Curry will play here. Curry may be a bit hampered, but I'm not betting the under based on this injury. 

Golden State is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. Golden State has really made a run largely because of some much improved defense in recent months. They have been playing at an average or slightly below average pace on offense too. 

The LA Clippers are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Clippers are bottom 8 in the NBA in tempo during that time as well. 

Steph Curry was quoted as saying this game would have a Game 7 feeling because of what is on the line. I think the pace slows a bit and the defenses have the upper hand.

All three meetings between these two teams this year have stayed under this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sandy Alcantara is back and pitching very well again. Alcantara sits at 10.24 strikeouts per nine innings so far this season. Alcantara has always been very good at home, and his numbers against the Nationals are stellar. The current Nationals hitters have a miserable .174 batting average and a .215 weighted on base average against Alcantara. It isn't a small sample size either. Those numbers are from a large sample of 125 plate appearances. I trust Alcantara to pitch well here.

The Marlins have one of the worst offenses in the majors. They have been worse against right handed pitching so far this year. Despite an above average batting average on balls in play, the Marlins have a bottom ten wOBA against right handed pitching this season.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he has been one of the three best under umpires in baseball for many years in a row. He consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and he frustrates a lot of hitters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a big game for both teams. There is a major battle going on for the 4th-8th spots in the NBA Western Conference. Everyone wants to get in the top six to avoid the play in. Right now, Memphis is 7th in the standings and Minnesota is 8th. One game separates 4th from 8th though, so there is plenty of room for movement in the final days.

Memphis has a new coach and they have slowed their pace down slightly. Minnesota is a top ten defense in the NBA lately. The Timberwolves have been going through scoring droughts though with many of the secondary scoring options struggling in recent contests.

The importance of this game is likely to slow things down a bit. The posted total is so high that I have to side with the under with 58 points per quarter still leading to an under.

I expect a little tighter defense than usual in this Western Conference battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics are playing home games in Sacramento and before the season there were some very smart people who expected this field to play as a solid overs park, especially on warmer days in Sacramento. Oakland Coliseum was a great pitchers park, and this is a huge change from that. 

Last night's 10-4 win by the A's was a wild one. It was 6-3 in the first inning. The A's offense is a bit better than most people realize. Both Butler and Rooker are budding stars and the lineup has some decent power. Vasquez starts for the Padres, and while he hasn't given up many runs this year, his lack of control and batted ball luck so far this year suggest regression is coming for him.

Bido starts for the A's here, and the Padres solid lineup should be able to get to him here too. San Diego got 11 hits last night and stranded a bunch of guys on base.

The two bullpens are overrated and both teams should see scoring chances later in the game too.

The weather here calls for temperatures nearing 80 degrees by the end of this afternoon. The ball should carry well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* There have been four games played in Sacramento where the Athletics are playing their home games. The lowest scoring game has had a total of nine runs. The four games have averaged 13.25 runs per game. This is clearly a good park for hitters. The adjustment from Oakland Coliseum which was a great pitchers park to this park is a massive one. The temperature is slowly warming up in Sacramento, so the ball should be flying well.

Springs is a middle of the road left handed pitcher. I expect the Padres to be a good team against lefties this year. San Diego has a deep lineup and I think easy innings will be tough to come by in this one for Springs.

Dylan Cease is a good starting pitcher. Cease is a bit inconsistent though, and the A's do have some power in their lineup. Rooker is still underrated by many people.

The Padres have an average bullpen at best. The Athletics bullpen is clearly below average.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays offense has been a little better than average so far this year, but the Blue Jays have had good batted ball luck. They rank fourth in the majors in batting average on balls in play. This isn't a particularly deep lineup. 

The New York Mets offense hasn't performed well so far this year. I do think they are better than what they have shown overall, but these are tough hitting conditions and against a quality pitcher.

The weather calls for cooler conditions with winds blowing in during this game. The home plate umpire is Doug Eddings who is one of the two or three biggest under umpires in the majors. Eddings consistently has extremely high strikeout/walk ratios. 

David Peterson has been good at Citi Field in his career. Bowden Francis had a 3.30 ERA last year, and his expected ERA was 3.39 so it was no fluke. He has good control and has quality upside.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees offense has been the best in baseball so far this year. The Yankees have the best weighted on base average in the majors despite having an average or slightly below batting average on balls in play. The Yankees are an excellent and deep lineup.

Marcus Stroman is past his prime, and Stroman has been hit hard by this Pirates lineup. The current Pirates lineup has a .359 weighted on base average against Stroman. 

Bailey Falter is a below average lefty and the Yankees have all sorts of guys who can crush left handed pitching.

The wind will be blowing out in this one and it will be warm at around 70 degrees in Pittsburgh. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors are fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Toronto is also second to last in offensive efficiency during that time. They have scored 108 points or fewer in five of their last ten games. They will be without R.J. Barrett today, and he is averaging 22 points per game this season. Scottie Barnes is their leader and he is questionable at best also.

Detroit will be without Tobias Harris which is a pretty big loss, and Cade Cunningham is questionable here as well. If Cunningham plays he isn't likely to be 100 percent. 

Detroit is 9th best in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season. I like their chances to slow down this shorthanded Toronto Raptors offense. The Pistons won't have some of their go to guys on offense though. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball. They have scored 10.33 runs per game in their last three games. This Cubs lineup is one of the deepest in baseball. There aren't many easy outs in this lineup. 

The Athletics are playing home games in Sacramento, and this park is much more hitter friendly than the Oakland Coliseum was. The Athletics lineup is likely to be a good amount better at home than on the road this season.

Jameson Taillon starts for the Cubs. His velocity has been down quite a bit in the past year, and he has in general trended downward. He is a bit past his prime, and I think the Athletics should create scoring opportunities here.

Jeffrey Springs starts for the A's in this one. Springs is coming off a great start in the most pitcher friendly ballpark in baseball in Seattle. I think he'll have a tougher time here against this Cubs offense. 

This is a day game and I think the ball will be carrying well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves lineup took another hit when Jurickson Profar was suspended for using PEDs yesterday. The Braves are still without Ronald Acuna Jr. and this offense has scored just 8 runs in five games this season. Atlanta has scored one total run in their last three games. 

Dustin May has a superb 2.66 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. May is a fast starter, and I like this matchup for him against a cold Braves lineup. 

Chris Sale definitely has his work cut out for him against an excellent Dodgers lineup, but Sale has an impressive .219 batting average allowed against this lineup in his career. Sale has a 2.93 ERA in the first half of the season and is known for a being a fast starter as well.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. He is a strike caller who will give the pitchers the corner. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans are up to 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Michigan State has a defensive mindset under Tom Izzo. No one has a great answer for Johni Broome, but Michigan State has a good interior defense and some solid depth in the frontcourt. Michigan State has played 10 of their last 13 games under this total.

Auburn is 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Tigers are 4th in the nation in blocked shots percentage. Michigan State takes a lot of mid range jumpers, and Auburn has been great at defending in the mid range. 

Auburn is 134th in the nation in tempo, so they aren't much faster than average. Michigan State is exactly at the average pace in the country. This is a huge game with a berth in the Final Four on the line. 

State Farm Arena has been good to under bettors in the long haul. This is a pretty high total given the situations here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Seattle's T Mobile Park has been the single most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors in the last three years. It hasn't been very close.

J.P. Sears has allowed a .191 batting average and an impressive .259 weighted on base average in 101 plate appearances against this Seattle Mariners lineup. Sears is a solid lefty for the A's, and he has a stellar 1.59 ERA in 17 innings pitched at T Mobile Park.

Bryan Woo starts for the Mariners. Woo has an amazing 0.965 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. Woo has allowed a .167 batting average and a tremendous .182 wOBA in 76 plate appearances against this Athletics lineup.

These two lineups should struggle to get things going. Both of these lineups lack depth.

John Bacon is the umpire here and the under was 17-6 in his games behind home plate last season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans have gone on a big run at the end of the season thanks to their defense. That has become the calling card of this Tom Izzo team late in the season. Michigan State is 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency for the season, and the Spartans defense has been even better in the last half of the season. 

Ole Miss has a defensive minded coach in Chris Beard. Ole Miss just put up 1.34 points per possession against a shorthanded Iowa State team, but I don't expect them to light up Michigan State. Ole Miss is 134th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Rebels are a good offense, but they aren't elite. Ole Miss is 21st in the nation in defensive efficiency.

State Farm Arena is a massive arena that is tougher shooting backdrops than these teams normally face. 

We just saw Michigan State slow down New Mexico (7th in the nation in tempo) to 65 possessions in their Round of 32 win.

I think both teams will take quite a few tough shots here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia 76ers have played in five straight games that have finished with 233 total points or more. Philadelphia has allowed 122 points or more in 7 of their last 9 contests. The 76ers defense ranks third worst in defensive efficiency in the NBA in the last 10 games. The New Orleans Pelicans rank dead last in defensive efficiency during that time period. 

New Orleans has seen 234 points or more scored in 5 of their last 9. They have allowed 134 and 136 points in their last two games. 

These are two teams who have nothing to play for and that has lead to some wild high scoring games of late. The 76ers are 7th in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games, and the Pelicans are 17th. There should be a relatively quick pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers are a top three defense in the country in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage defense. The Volunteers have an elite shot blocker in Felix Okpara. Jahmai Mashack is one of the best individual defenders in the country. UCLA is going to have to work very hard for their points in this one. 

UCLA is 15th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bruins are great at forcing turnovers. They have suffered a bit in their overall defensive numbers because opponents have shot it very well from the free throw line, but we know there is no skill to free throw defense. UCLA is second in non-steal turnovers which means steals that are a dead ball. These are very helpful for unders. 

UCLA is 312th in the nation in tempo. Tennessee is 346th out of 364 teams in the country in tempo. This game should be a real grinder played in the halfcourt. 

UCLA's offense has been terrible away from home. Tennessee is generally happy to stall and use a lot of clock when they have a lead.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats are 54th in the country in tempo. Arizona played against a lot of Big 12 teams who wanted to slow the pace down this year. When Arizona played against other fast paced opponents, the scores got very high quickly. Arizona lost to BYU 96-95. The Wildcats beat Arizona State 113-100. They beat Oklahoma State 92-78.

Akron is 16th in the nation in tempo. The Zips love to run and gun. Akron has five regular players who shoot at least 36.5% from 3 point range. Arizona ranks 234th in the country in open 3 rate allowed on defense. On the other side, Akron's defense leaves a lot to be desired. Akron gave up 87 points to St. Mary's, who is far from a fast paced offensive opponent. Akron allowed 100 points against Milwaukee. They won 92-84 against Omaha. Akron is an ugly 340th in open 3 rate allowed on defense.

I think both teams will be happy to run and this will turn into a track meet. Akron is also way too short for Arizona, and the Wildcats should thrive on second chance opportunities here.

It's a high number, but I think this one could get very high.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils are far better defensively than they are given credit for this season. Cooper Flagg is expected to play in this game, but one would assume he will play less minutes than normal. 

Mount St. Mary's is coming off one of their best shooting performances in the past couple years in their win against American in the first four. It will be a whole lot more difficult in this one for them to get open looks. Duke is the tallest team in the country. Mount St. Mary's is 230th in height. The Duke length is going to overwhelm the Mountaineers.

Duke is 267th in the country in tempo. Mount St. Mary's is 165th in the country in tempo, but it would be pretty shocking to see them want to run against a far superior team. 

Jon Scheyer's teams have been under machines in the NCAA Tournament. Duke is 6-0 to the under in Scheyer's games as a head coach, and the average margin is nearly 13 points under the posted total.

I think Duke's defense puts the clamps down and they slow the pace with a big lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri Tigers and Drake Bulldogs play in a battle that is a major contrast in styles. Drake plays at the slowest pace of anyone in the country. Missouri is 55th quickest in the country in terms of average possession length. 

Missouri has played 33 games this year. Only two of them have gone under this total. In fact, only two of their games all season have finished with less than 139 points. The Tigers are 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are second in the country in FTA/FGA, so they are living at the free throw line. 

Drake plays slowly, but they aren't great on defense. The Bulldogs are 228th effective field goal percentage defense. They are outside the top 300 in the country in near proximity defense. I think Missouri can make them pay near the basket in this one. 

Drake is 11th in the nation in FTA/FGA. The Tigers foul a lot and Drake should get to the stripe a lot here. Drake is great on the offensive glass, and one of Missouri's biggest weakness is defensive rebounding.

Drake played Vanderbilt earlier this year and it was their fastest paced game of the season. It was an 81-70 final. I don't think this one will be that high, but I think Missouri can score enough to force Drake to speed up slightly. These two offenses are both very solid.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs are a tricky #13 seed. They showed that in their upset of Auburn last year in the first round. 

Texas A&M under Buzz Williams is a defensive-minded team. Texas A&M is 7th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Aggies are going to make Yale work for their points. Yale likes to score from close to the hoop, but that is the strength of the Texas A&M defense. Texas A&M has two elite shot blockers. 

The Texas A&M offense isn't efficient in the halfcourt. They are heavily reliant on offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities. Texas A&M is 317th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are first in offensive rebounding percentage nationally, but Yale is 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage, and Yale is actually a taller team than Texas A&M. Yale is 20th best in the country at preventing second chance points.

Both teams are slightly slower than the average team in the country tempo wise. With a spread at 7.5 (less chance of overtime or a foul fest) and a relatively high total here, I'm going to go under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The early rounds (especially round one and round two) of the NIT and the smaller postseason tournaments have been very good over bets in the long run. That is especially true when the posted total is set at a low number. 

North Texas is one of the slowest paced teams in the country, and I can certainly understand the number being set relatively low here. The Mean Green do get to the free throw line a lot though, and they shoot 77.6% from the charity stripe. 

Furman is just 191st in defensive efficiency. The Paladins have struggled on the defensive glass all season, and North Texas is likely to take advantage in that area. 

Furman should get their chances at the free throw line as well, since North Texas is 321st defensively in FTA/FGA. 

The over has been near 60% in the early rounds of the NIT in the lowest totaled games. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys played in a really difficult Big 12. Steve Lutz did a great job at his previous jobs, and I would give him some time to see if it will work here. One thing we know for sure is his teams are going to push the tempo to the max. Western Kentucky finished first in the nation in tempo with him as their coach last year. Oklahoma State is 15th nationally in tempo this season. 

Wichita State is 101st overall in tempo and 72nd in average possession length. They should be happy to run in this contest. Wichita State plays in an AAC with quite a few teams who like to slow the pace down. The Shockers are good at getting to the free throw line, and Oklahoma State fouls nearly as much as anyone in the country.

Oklahoma State is going to use full court pressure and be very aggressive. Wichita State has struggled with this during the season, and I would expect some quick points for the Cowboys here.

An up and down track meet in terms of tempo. As long as the shooting numbers aren't terrible, I think this gets pretty high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early start in Dallas. It is a noon local start in Dallas. 

The Mavericks have been much better on defense at home this year than on the road. Dallas is 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. They are struggling to score in the halfcourt. 

Philadelphia is one of the most banged up teams in the NBA. The 76ers lack elite scoring options now. Philadelphia is 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games, so they too are struggling quite a bit on offense.

The early Sunday unders have been good in the last 15 years, and they have been even better in the Western Conference.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers have won a 62-58 contest two days ago and a 57-55 contest on Friday. They play Iona in a game where two lower seeds pulled upsets and got to the title game.

Iona's game against Quinnipiac went over the total on Friday, but it was just 65 possessions. The Quinnipiac defense was very weak in the paint in that game. Mt. St. Mary's is first in shot selection allowed in the MAAC, and I think they can make things tougher on Iona.

Iona's pressure defense should give the Mountaineers guards a lot of trouble. I think Mt. St. Mary's will waste quite a few possessions here. 

Conference tournament final games have been good to under bettors especially in these smaller leagues. It is win and get to the NCAA Tournament or lose and fall just short of that huge goal.

The under is 37-17 at Boardwalk Hall where this game is being played. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have been a great defensive team for several years now. Joe Gallo does a tremendous job setting up this matchup zone pressure they use to slow the game down and keep the opposition uncomfortable at all times. 

Mount St. Mary's is first in the MAAC in shot selection allowed according to Shot Quality. The Merrimack offense is too reliant on Clark to take over. Merrimack plays very slowly on offense, and they often end with poor shots near the buzzer.

Merrimack is 4th nationally in turnover percentage on defense. Mount St. Mary's is 356th in turnover percentage on offense. 

These two teams are first and third in the conference at defending without fouling.

Boardwalk Hall is 36-16 to the under in the MAAC Tournament games. This is a very good under gym with the large arena often bothering shooters.

Merrimack has seen 5 of their last 7 games stay under this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Quinnipiac Bobcats and Iona Gaels meet in the MAAC Semifinals at Boardwalk Hall on Friday night. 

Boardwalk Hall is 36-16 to the under in MAAC games. Totals of 134 or higher are a whopping 22-5 to the under here in MAAC Tournament games. This is a tough shooting backdrop for teams that are not accustomed to such a large gym.

Quinnipiac is elite on the defensive glass, and Iona's best offense is their offensive rebounding and second chance points.

Iona is great at forcing turnovers and Quinnipiac struggles to take care of the basketball. 

Both of these teams are below average in getting to the free throw line over the course of the season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mount St. Mary's and Marist are first and second in the MAAC in shot selection allowed. 

Mount St. Mary's is first in FTA/FGA on defense, so they aren't giving opponents many shots at the stripe. They are also third in defensive rebounding. 

Marist is the slowest paced team in the MAAC. The Red Foxes are 363rd out of 364 teams in the country in FTA/FGA on offense. 

The two regular season meetings between these two teams finished 53-50 and 62-52. Both easily stayed under and now we have a win or go home game at a tough venue.

The under has been money at Boardwalk Hall in the last few seasons.

I expect a slow paced low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays will play DePaul in the Big East Tournament on Thursday night. DePaul upset Georgetown in the first round and is now a double digit underdog to Creighton.

Creighton is an average tempo team, and DePaul likes to slow the game down. Creighton is first in the nation at defending without fouling. DePaul is a solid 78th out of 364 at defending without fouling. 

These two teams met twice in the regular season with combined total points of 122 and 140 points in those games. Creighton will be able to score down low with Kalkbrenner here, but I don't think DePaul has many paths to scoring in this one. Creighton is elite on the defensive glass, and DePaul is going to end up taking a bunch of long range jumpers here. Unless DePaul catches fire from deep against a good Creighton 3 point defense, I think DePaul struggles to score.

Madison Square Garden is one of the best under venues in college basketball. All three of the Big East Tournament games on Wednesday at MSG went under the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Thursday Big East battle between Marquette and Xavier should be a good one. 

Marquette won by two at Xavier and Xavier won by two at Marquette. These are two quality teams who should be highly motivated in this clash at Madison Square Garden.

Madison Square Garden is one of the best under venues in college basketball. The tough shooting backdrop has given teams fits for many years.

The two games in the regular season were 72-70 and 59-57. The average pace was 68 possessions in those games.

Both of these teams rank in the top 40 nationally in defensive efficiency. They are 69th and 115th in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Xavier's defense has improved drastically down the stretch. They have held four of their last five opponents to 68 points or fewer. 

Both of these teams have been good at defending without fouling. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Sacred Heart Pioneers and Merrimack Warriors face off in a big MAAC matchup at Boardwalk Hall on Wednesday night.

Merrimack was the betting favorite in this league (to win the conference tournament) according to most sportsbooks. The Warriors have a great matchup zone defense that can really mess up the opposing offense. Joe Gallo is a superb coach who gets the most out of his players.

Sacred Heart almost never gets to the line, and they don't foul very much on defense either.

The two regular season meetings between these two finished at 131 and 119 points total. This game means more being a win or go home.

Boardwalk Hall has been one of the best under venues in all of college basketball. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Madison Square Garden has consistently been one of the best under arenas in college basketball. It is a huge place with a difficult shooting backdrop. Big East unders are about 59% in the last 14 years at MSG.

Providence and Butler went way over the total last time they played, but both teams were on fire from 3 point range. Providence went a whopping 16/32 from 3 point range and still lost the game. Butler was 10/19 from 3 point range.

With MSG being tough for shooters, the fact that both of these teams rely heavily on 3 pointers is dangerous for them.

The defenses have been inconsistent, but Shot Quality ranks both in the top 15 in the country in shot selection allowed. Butler doesn't foul much at all. 

I think the pace here is below average and this is a high total for Madison Square Garden in a win or go home spot.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sacred Heart Pioneers and Fairfield Stags meet at Boardwalk Hall on Tuesday night. 

These two teams met twice in the regular season and it was 148 points total and 145 points total. This is a win or go home game that should mean the tempo should slow down a bit and the referees are usually a little slower to call fouls.

These two offenses rank in the bottom 30 in the country in FTA/FGA so they will need to shoot the ball well to get over this total.

Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue. The under is 18-4 in the last 22 games at Boardwalk Hall when the total is set at 132.5 or higher. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The tempo should stay slow when these two teams meet in the MAAC Tournament on Tuesday night.

Rider is 326th in average possession length. Siena is 282nd in average possession length. In the one meeting they had in the regular season it finished 61-59 with a slow pace of just 62 possessions.

Siena relies on getting to the line a lot, but Rider is 36th in the nation in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. Siena has a bunch of shot blockers and they have improved quite a bit defensively.

Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue. The under is 18-4 in the last 22 games at Boardwalk Hall when the total is set at 132.5 or higher. 

Take the under here.